Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the month “July, 2019”

Schiff Mueller Testimony


After Robert Mueller testified to Judiciary on July 24, 2019, he testified further that afternoon to Congressman Adam Schiff’s Intelligence Committee.  Adam Schiff gives this brilliant introductory speech to that testimony, summarizing the importance of the Mueller Report.  That report was released in redacted form 4-18-19 and mis-framed by the President’s defense attorney William Barr, the appropriately “held in contempt” Attorney General.  Trump, Barr, Fox News, and congressman Nunes have all shamelessly lied to concoct a narrative to justify the president’s ongoing criminal conduct since Trump’s cooperation with the Russians to win election.  The president colludes in secret whenever he meets with Putin, especially in the shameful Helsinki statements.  Here is the brilliant Schiff statement in its entirety:

Congressman Adam Schiff:

“At the outset, and on behalf of my colleagues, I want to thank you, Special Counsellor Mueller, for a lifetime of service to the country.    Your Report, for those who have taken the time to study it, is methodical, and it is devastating.  It tells the story of a foreign adversary’s sweeping and systematic intervention in a close U.S. presidential election.  That should be enough to deserve the attention of every American, as you well point out.  But your report tells another story as well.  The story of the 2016 election is also about disloyalty to country, about greed, and about lies.  Your investigation determined that the Trump campaign, including Donald Trump himself, knew that a foreign power was intervening in our election and welcomed it, built Russian meddling into their strategy, and used it.  Disloyalty to country, those are strong words, but how else can we describe a presidential campaign which did not inform authorities about a foreign offer of dirt on their opponent, did not publicly shun it or turn it away, but which instead invited it, encouraged it, and made full use of it.  That disloyalty may not have been criminal. Constrained by uncooperative witnesses, the destruction of documents, and the use of encrypted communications, your team was not capable of establishing each of the elements of the crime of conspiracy beyond a reasonable doubt.  But not a provable crime in any event, but I think maybe something worse.  A crime is a violation of law written by congress, but disloyalty violates the very oath of citizenship, our devotion to a core principal of which our nation was founded, that we, the people and not some foreign power that wishes us ill, that we decide who governs us.  This is also a story about money, about greed and corruption, the leadership of a campaign willing to compromise the nation’s interest, not only to win, but to make money at the same time.  About a campaign chairman indebted to pro-Russia interests who tried to use his position to clear his debts and to make millions.  About a national security advisor using his position to make money from still other foreign interests.  About a candidate trying to make more money than all of them put together, the real estate project that to him was worth a fortune, hundreds of millions of dollars, and the realization of a lifelong ambition, a Trump tower in the heart of Moscow.  A candidate in fact, who viewed his whole campaign as the greatest infomercial in history.  Donald Trump and his senior staff were not alone in their desire to use the election to make money, for Russia too there was a powerful financial motive, Putin wanted relief from economic sanctions imposed in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and over human rights violations.  The secret Trump tower meeting between the Russians and senior campaign officials was about sanctions.  The secret conversations between Flynn and the ambassador of Russia were about sanctions.  Trump and his team wanted more money for themselves and the Russians wanted more money for themselves and for their Oligarchs.  But the story doesn’t end here either, your story talks about lies, lots of lies, lies about Trump tower Moscow and the Kremlin, lies about the firing of James Comey, and lies about the effort to fire you, director Mueller, and lies to cover it up.  Lies about secret meetings about negotiations about sanctions and lies about Wikileaks, lies about polling data and lies about hush money payments.  Lies about secret meetings in the Seychelles to set up secret back channels and lies about a secret meeting in Trump tower.  Lies to the FBI, lies to your staff, and lies to this committee.  Lies to obstruct an investigation into the most serious attacks on our democracy by a foreign power in our history.  That is where your report ends, director Mueller, with a scheme to cover up obstruct and deceive every bit as dramatic systematic and pervasive as the Russian disinformation campaign itself, but far more pernicious since this rot came from within.  Even now after 448 pages and two volumes, the deception continues, the president and his acolytes say your report found no collusion, though your report explicitly declines to address that question.  Though collusion involves both criminal and non-criminal conduct.  Your report laid out multiple offers of Russian help to the Trump campaign.  Acceptance of that help and over-active furtherance of that help, that is the very definition of collusion, whether it is a crime or not.  They say your report found no evidence of obstruction, though you outline numerous actions of the president that is intended to obstruct the investigation.  They say the president has been fully exonerated though you specifically declare you could not exonerate him.  In fact, they say your whole investigation was nothing more than a witch hunt, that the Russians didn’t interfere in our election, that it’s all a terrible hoax.  The real crime they say, is not that the Russians intervened to help Donald Trump, but that the FBI had the temerity to investigate it, when they did.  But worst of all, worse than all the lies and the greed, it the disloyalty to country.  For that, too, continues.  When asked if the Russians continue, will you take their help, Mr. President?  Why not, is the essence of his answer, everyone does it.  No Mr. President, they don’t.  Not in the America envisioned by Jefferson Madison and Hamilton, not for those who believe in the idea that Lincoln labored until his dying day to preserve, the idea animating our great national experiment, the idea then so precious still that our government is chosen by our people, through our franchise, and not by some hostile foreign power.   This is what is at stake, our next election, and the one after that, for generations to come, our democracy.  This is why your work matters, Director Mueller, this is why our investigation matters, to bring these dangers to light.”

Dangerous Times

Many Americans are worried about dictatorial and fascistic authoritarian tendencies of President Donald Trump, who despite unprecedented opinion polls that have never exceeded 50%, many fear he will be re-elected in 2020.  He compares to Caligula, the Roman Emperor who was considered the crazy one, yet he continues to dominate the news with an unending stream of outrageous “tweets” to some 64 million followers.  Caligula lasted only four years, and many hope that Trump will last only four years.  President Trump has told over 10,000 documented lies.

Additional information about How Empire Explains America Best:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 26), “Schiff Mueller Testimony” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019183327.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 82 Web Looks in 10 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Popular Old Press Releases


Press Releases are initially sent out to a list of 7000 and my average viewership is 900 per press release, usually front loaded in the first days, then weeks, then months of release.  Total viewership will exceed 200,000 in about a month.  I monitor the progress of views of my press releases several times a day since 2013.  I am only able to see totals for the most recent 50 press releases at a time.  So periodically, usually about once a year, I ask for the whole total list of 220 press releases, and then update my files for increased viewings of the older than current 50 press releases.  This shows me how amazingly popular some older press releases have become.  This is a report on how the 26,834 new views from October 4, 2017 to July 9, 2019 have shown which releases have become very popular in the after 50 category over the last 21 months.  This tends to show what those seriously interested in my work are reading or referring to others to read.

Popular Older Releases

The top 20 popular older releases are an amazing and revealing assortment.  While they range from #9 to #91 on the overall total list, so they are all in the top one hundred, and average rank 52 with average view totals of 1132 each and a range of 891 to 1738.  The 375 views average of this update represents 33% of the average total views!  By comparison, the top twenty press releases on the overall list average 2070 and includes only three of these top twenty hot oldies.  So initial and enduring impressions vary a lot.  And the overall list average has only 13% of these last 21-month updates.

Rank Order Older Releases by Update Views

      Rank Views 2017-2019 Total Views All Rank
1 646 1/23/2016 CIAPresidents 2:33am 1738 37% 9
2 514 5/28/2016 FootballBaseballWar 10 1322 39% 23
3 513 3/19/2016 NobelPrizeWatch 12am 1150 45% 40
4 497 8/26/2014 Prediction 2:10am 1564 32% 12
5 383 3/12/2016 TechnicalPeaceEcon 12 939 41% 71
6 382 11/29/2015 ViolenceCycle 12:05am 919 42% 81
7 376 2/28/2015 WalkerWorkDignity 3am 1098 34% 47
8 375 1/2/2016 CNNTop5AllEmpire 4:40 879 43% 91
9 354 4/2/2016 ScientificRevolution 12 931 38% 75
10 340 6/4/2016 DeepPoliticsIraq 4:21am 1214 28% 31
11 328 4/16/2016 CIALiveHistory 12:53am 944 35% 70
12 323 12/21/2014 10ScientificRevolution 1010 32% 62
13 317 4/23/2016 FuturePresident 11:20 911 35% 84
14 314 4/30/2016 ParadigmShiftsPE 4:45 957 33% 67
15 311 10/18/2016 ClassWarfare 5:06am 1495 21% 16
16 311 4/28/2015 NepalChile 12:00am 906 34% 86
17 310 5/14/2014 EugenePolitician 2pm 1099 28% 46
18 303 1/3/2015 ReligionEmpire 12:30 1098 28% 48
19 300 9/8/2014 10HeatHurts 11:40am 952 32% 69
20 298 10/5/2016 NobelPrizeLetter 2:10 1527 20% 15

Leading Older Releases:

“CIA Presidents: Obama Clinton” 1-23-16 leads the way with the revelations that both Democratic Party US Presidents since the end of the Cold War worked with the CIA.  These two, Clinton and Obama, also are the first elected Presidents since World War II that do not come from above average military spending per capita home states.  Their compromise with empire is not the military economy but the intelligence agencies.  This is a shift parallel with the Defense Research Institutions list from Massachusetts Institute of Technology topping the list in the Cold War and Johns Hopkins University of Baltimore topping the list with the US the sole superpower after the Cold War.  The move is from weapons engineering primacy to foreign policy primacy respectively.  George Bush, sr. as former head of the CIA (1975-1976) was also a CIA President and probably worked for the CIA in the early sixties, and there may have been others, as the CIA is very secretive.

“Football, Baseball, and War” 5-28-16

This second ranked release shows the importance of cultural dominance of an appropriate sport for an empire to have.  As USA moved from a peacetime economy between wars to the perpetual militarism of empire, so too it moved from artistic Baseball as the number one sport to American Football with all its militaristic language and brute force techniques that strongly resemble those of modern warfare.

“Nobel Peace Prize Watch” 3-19-16

This third ranked release tells the exciting story of reading into the secretive deliberations of the Norwegian Nobel Committee just by following closely the activity on my various websites.  This explains how and why I came to believe Thorbjorn Jagland took the early assignment to follow my Nobel Peace Prize nomination in early 2016.

“SF Earthquake Predicted” 8-26-14

This fourth ranked release follows the history of prediction of events with my global warming cycle theory.  Includes the June 16, 1991 Mount Pinatuba eruption that confirmed my volcanic cycle theory just after the release of my “Natural Global Warming” paper on May 7, 1991.  Goes on to anticipate the San Francisco earthquake repetition of 1906 two cycles later in 2014, precisely 108 years later, but at a low magnitude the second time.

“Technical Peace Economics” 3-12-16

This fifth ranked release is an early summary of my key findings picked up and published by the “Nonviolent Change Journal Spring 2016 Edition, May 5, 2016.”  Includes my thirteen defining correlations and the 56 cycle events and world temperature graph with perfect fitting 55 year moving average found in the complete paper.

“War and Violence Period Cycle” 11-29-15

This sixth ranked release focuses on the economic and political cycles that produce the war cycle, the civil rights cycle, and other patterns.

“Scott Walker of Wisconsin” 2-28-15

This seventh ranked release focuses on the union busting bill of the Tea Party darling Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin who sprung a surprise ALEC extreme bill on the state right after the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2011, leading to protests of at least 10,000 daily for four weeks, including the final protest of 150,000. 

“CNN Stories:  All Empire” 1-2-16

This eighth ranked release focuses on the top five CNN stories of 2015; Rise of the Islamic State, Supreme Court Gay Marriage Decision (reflects right wing moral decay theory of empire), Paris Terror Assaults, Mass Shootings, Cops Killing Unarmed Blacks.

“Scientific Revolution Type” 4-2-16

This ninth ranked release focuses on my ten-point summary of Thomas Kuhn’s classic “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” and my own thoughts on “Ten Truths About Research.”

“Deep Politics of Iraq War” 6-4-16

This tenth ranked release focuses the story of how the CIA brought Saddam Hussein to power, used him against Iran, and then tricked him into invading Kuwait.  The rest of the story is more familiar.

Additional information about Stages of Empire:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 24), “Popular Old Press Releases” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019183228.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 81 Web Looks in 10 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Earthquake Hurricane Update


The 54-year long cycle shows up in many ways.  The normal timespan is 54 years, but it really is sometimes 27 years or sometimes 108 years.  Every 27 years global warming goes from a hot trend to a cool trend and the turning points are often marked by major hurricanes, focused on major US cities.  Flooding is considered the major threat in a hurricane, so historical flooding patterns are a main marker of the pattern.  108-year trends occur in blizzards and volcanoes because every other 54-year cycle comes when global warming is coming from the land or the ocean and Northeastern blizzards in the US or southwestern Pacific volcanoes tend to be by oceans.  This is because every other 54 year cycle is led by the Southern or Northern Hemisphere, with Southern meaning more coastal and oceanic and Northern meaning more inland and land based, just like the two Hemispheres tend to be with most of the Earth’s land in the North, and most of the Earth’s ocean in the South.  Lately, because of global warming, there have been more 27-year events rather than 54-year events.


The Greater Los Angeles area had a 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Northridge in 1994 with 60 deaths and thousands injured.  Twenty-five years later, halfway to Las Vegas, the Ridgecrest earthquake of 7.1 magnitude hit in a largely unpopulated area.  That is just two years off a perfect 27-year cycle.  For comparison, the Great San Francisco 1906 earthquake had a magnitude of 7.9.  The 1989 “repeat” had a magnitude of 6.9 and collapsed the Bay Area Bridge, just two years long on the 81-year anniversary of three 27s.  Then the 108-year anniversary had a mild 6.0 quake in South Napa in 2014.  Because of the wide variance in magnitudes, the cyclic behavior of earthquakes is less rigorously scientific than other natural phenomena such as blizzards, volcanoes, hurricanes, droughts, and floods. See Water Cycle reference at the end of this release.


Puerto Rico was devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017, funds for recovery estimated $100 billion, with only $10 billion delivered so far.  North Carolina was devastated by Hurricane Florence in 2018.  Both had as a predecessor Hurricane Hugo in 1989, 28 and 29 years before respectively.  These are very good fits for the 27-year cycle, only one year or two years off, respectively.  Hugo clipped a corner of Puerto Rico and went on to dump a foot of rain on North Carolina.  Maria was much worse for Puerto Rico and Florence was much worse for North Carolina with two feet of rain over most of the state.  Both show the worsening trend of global warming overall, yet the cyclical nature of how often these major events recur.

Iowa Mississippi Floods

Iowa public radio said “Farmer’s concern is understandable because this year’s corn planting progress is two weeks behind the five-year average, and tardiest since 1995” because of excessive rain.  So, a major impact of these excessive upper Midwest rains is a return to the Mississippi floods years of 1993 and 1995, with the quad cities of Iowa and Illinois facing record flood levels in 2019.  That suggests a 26 year repeat of the 1993 flood (the greater one of the 1993 and 1995 floods).  That’s only one year off the perfect 27-year repeat cycle.  Add to this the Hurricane Barry floods in Louisiana this last weekend (landfall July 13, 2019) with state capital Baton Rouge (upriver of New Orleans) facing record flood levels, also on this 26-year cycle.  According to Iowa public radio “Conditions are even worse in neighboring states. Illinois has planted only 35 percent of its intended corn acreage, Nebraska 70 percent and Missouri 62 percent. Minnesota has two-thirds planted. South Dakota’s 25 percent planted compares to the five-year average of 90-percent complete by this stage of the growing season.”  Interstate 80, a major San Francisco Chicago New York highway was completely flooded throughout much of Iowa recently after weeks of storms coming through.

Cycle Summary

All these major events recently confirm two things.  1) That the pace of the cycle is shortening more and more to the 27-year cycle from a more normal 54-year cycle thanks to global warming trends which have shown a doubling of the pace since 1973. 2) Mounting evidence shows the next global warming acceleration will begin about 2025 and even the many signs of dismal news this century must be taken in the context of a relative slowdown since 1998 of the global trend will be reversed in 2025 as the current 1994-2021 relative cooling trend of the cycle good for economic growth will go into a 2021-2048 relative warming trend bad for economic growth.  Turnarounds tend to show a four-year delay, making 1917, 1944, 1998, and 2025 the endpoints of preceding trends even though multi-year averaging tens to show 1913, 1940, 1994, and 2021 as the true turning points from a longer-term perspective.  This kind of like the exaggerated wake of a boat after turning showing up a little later than the actual turn.  We on the water planet must realize that the 71% of Earth’s surface dominated by ocean acts like a shock absorber to the warming cycle system.  Transfer of energy between the deep ocean and the surface ocean helps ensure a return to natural energy balance after 27 years of land overheating leading to 27 years of oceanic cooling.  Not counting the artic poles, land tends get about 10% more rain than ocean overall, thanks to mountains.  Rain over the poles is a tiny fraction of that over the tropics.

Additional information about Global Warming Cycle (5 p.) and important accuracy addenda (4 p.):

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 17), “Earthquake Hurricane Update” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019182966.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 79 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



What Does Peace Econ Show?


Peace Economics starts with the concept that military spending diverts manufacturing economic growth into a non-productive service of national defense of the same economic size.  That is confirmed by Ruth Sivard’s bar charts and Reuschlein’s 78-year model of manufacturing productivity in the United States.  Further study shows that military spending substitutes for manufacturing in regional economies based on states clustered around large cities.  This substitution effect lowers manufacturing employment while driving down overall economic growth and raising overall unemployment.  This substitution effect mimics local economic growth around the military spending and ignores the corresponding depletion of economic growth in manufacturing states.  All of this is shown in multiple tests of the basic concepts in several periods of substantial change in military spending, showing the effects to be well over 97% accurate in all manner of circumstances.  Hence military spending is inert manufacturing that gives little or none back to the economic growth of the economy.  The little is the possible 3% of normal 100% growth from research spin-offs.  To use a biological analogy, military spending is fat while manufacturing is protein.  Both come from the same research and capital pools vital to all national economic growth, fueled by a physical and technical abled blue-collar workforce.

Corruption of Military Spending

Peace Economics shows that high military spending mini-regions and states have crime and corruption of many kinds (crime, politics, health, mental health, economic inequality, lack of social mobility, etc.) proportional to the military spending.  Just as war leads to post traumatic stress syndrome, even planning for and preparing for war leads to demonization of the “other” and many related negative psychological effects.  The attitude is social poison, even if much is done to mitigate that attitude effect.

Historical Effects  

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the decline of empires and civilizations.  Toynbee thought 23 of 26 civilizations he studied failed due to high military spending.  Peace Economics shows in detail how many if not most of the United States national economic calamities have a significant military spending component in their unfolding.  For example, the $70 billion military surge in Iraq under President Bush announced in December 2006 or January 2007, was implemented economically in the fiscal year 10-1-07 to 9-30-08 $60 billion above trend military budget.  Those four economic quarters were exactly the four biggest drops in the economic growth rate over that time period including a few years before and since 2008.  While the ten-fold increase in derivatives since the repeal of Glass-Steagall on 11-12-99 remains the main problem and cause, the run-away real estate prices in the post 9-11 military buildup and the trigger by the surge brought the problem to a head.  The proof is that the major military buildup states were hit the hardest with real estate scams, yet the industrial states of the heartland suffered the auto industry collapse.

Social Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the social decay of empires and civilizations.  Alternative views that moral decay leads to decline ignore the direct links to economics that in turn leads to the various social decay forms such as crime, prisoners, diabetes, mental health, teen pregnancy, infant mortality, lifespan, drugs, gambling, economic inequality, and lack of social mobility, among many others.  High military Empire economies are flat, sideways oriented, control oriented, and stagnant.  Low military Emerging economies are forward looking, achievement oriented, and fast growing.  Occupations reflect these opposite styles, with lawyers, salesmen, and accountants to fight the petty battles of a stagnant economy, and engineers and scientists and entrepreneurs to lead the way in emerging societies.  Both economies have both styles in them, just more growth-oriented win/win styles in the emerging societies, and more win/lose styles and red tape in the militarized stagnant societies.

Political Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the economic power of politicians.  Half of the U.S. population is in the high military spending states and half is in the low military spending states.  The ratio is three to one, high states over low states.  This imbalance leads to about 80% of congressional leaders, cabinet members, presidents, and Supreme Court appointees coming from the high military states.  Fear based politics has grown in power over time in the modern empire society of America.  Trump has taken that to a new high in obviousness, showing the trend continues strong.

National Defense Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the long-term decline of empires and civilizations.  So, while high military spending may be necessary to fight or deter wars, economic strength is usually much more important to win wars.  Peace Economics shows that high military spending syphons off enough economic growth to endanger the national defense in a few decades time.  Hence being the most militarized nation may earn a nation temporary advantages at the expense of inevitable decline.  Holding to the world average percent of your economy devoted to military spending is a far shrewder long-time strategy.  Lower levels of military spending reduce the temptation to get into foolish wars and actual allow the military to keep ahead by maintaining a world class economy that develops first and then spins off into the military instead of looking for military economic spin-offs that are reduced by secrecy and being too narrowly militarily useful only to keep the economy strong, which doesn’t actually work.  Putting the economy ahead of the military let the United States develop the automobile and airplanes and industrial might first, making victory in World War II later possible.  High levels of military spending ever since have held America back to the point of being an ineffective power in several Asian Wars halfway around the world, a far cry from defeating powerful Germany and Japan in the World War. 

War Cycle

The Peace Economics model uses a 54-year cycle later shown by Reuschlein to originate from an energy imbalance between the continents and the oceans created by evaporation differences over land and water.  Land heats up three times as fast as water.  The continents make the first move warming into a drought period, then when balance goes too far in one direction, the ocean fights back with rains and floods bring on the cooling period.  Heat slows down construction and other work such that the 27-year cooling period doubles growth rates in the economy over the 27-year heating period, historically.  Then the cooling period high growth leads to new powers emerging and challenging the hegemonic order, usually in the last strong cooling trend of about three years at the end of the cooling cycle.  There are explainable nuances in the thousand year’s records of Rome (300 years), America (200 years), and modern Europe (500 years), but for the most part major wars follow the 54-year cycle closely.  This relative predictability makes possible significant reductions in military might in more peace-oriented times, militarizing only when necessary.

For additional information about Peace Economics accuracy:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 10), “What Does Peace Econ Show?” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019182717.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 75 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



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