I go to events where people explain their individual global warming projections as they see the greenhouse effect theory affects the global temperature over time. They always project based on the average rate of increase straight line. This always gives an inaccurate fit in the current period, usually indicating a curve rising much faster than it is rising during the current period. I then go to them after the lecture and explain to them that we are in a special short-term situation where the growth of temperature is less than the projected average growth. I explain the cycle and give them a graph showing how accurate the cycle is. Then they ignore me. Sometimes I see them go to my websites and read up on my work, but they still revert to form and ignore me after giving it a lot of thought. They stay trapped in their pre-existing frame of mind. This is unfortunate. Ignoring my work only leads to inaccuracies and continued naïve planning for the unique situations faced by each nation, each region, each city. Including the 54-year cycle and recognizing the application of the cycle makes possible much more accurate long-term forecasts of the many major natural, economic, and political events of our times. This will save money and lives. Some say that history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. That is a half-truth, because many situations do approximately repeat again on cycle time. Imagine what a confused world we would live in if we could not count on the sunrise and the sunset or the coming and going of the seasons. Someday the whole world will look at the events of the 54-year cycle as matter of fact as day and night and winter and summer. That day will come much sooner if I win a major prize like the Nobel, Pulitzer, or MacArthur, or one of my books became a bestseller.
Evaporation of water happens to be the number use of solar radiation hitting the Earth. Evaporation happens more over oceans than over land because of the lower amount of water over land. This leaves more radiation for warming the surface over land than over water. An estimated three times as much warming occurs initially over land compared to water. But as land warms faster, eventually the ocean reacts to bring the whole Earth back into energy balance. Because of varying geography over the planet, these balancing forces like rain, wind belts, ocean currents and mountains create unique circumstances in various parts of the Earth over the course of a 54-year cycle. This makes major events like hurricanes, earthquakes, blizzards, floods, droughts, and volcanoes ebb and flow and peak at certain times in the cycle in certain places. These events can be charted and proximately estimated to recur at certain times. These patterns have enormous consequences for human planning and accommodating to minimize the damage and lives lost when such events occur.
Because high heat has a sluggish impact on the work of the human animal, hot and cold weather, tropical and temperate zones, dry hot deserts and cool humid forests, all have an impact on human output economically. At the macro level these effects average out to show slow steady evolution of the economic growth rate over the course of the 54-year cycle. Depressions and booms are accentuated by either long term cooling or heating trends with slight cooling helping economic growth and slight heating slowing economic growth. Stocks and employment vary with these undercurrents. Understanding things like how the May day to Halloween slowdown in stock markets occur worldwide can begin to better predict markets leading to greater stability. Many fortunes will be made or lost applying these effects to economic models.
War and Social Change Events
Human exuberance and lethargy, confidence and anxiety changes as economic booms lead to new countries emerging as world leaders and competition among nations leads to war and social change tensions. These forces ebb and flow with the changes in the 54-year cycle. Revolutions don’t happen when despair is widespread, they occur when things begin to change for the better. Peck order imperatives exist throughout the animal kingdom and also among human societies and nations. Change requires struggle, whether that be by social movement, economic trade, or by war. Knowing when these impacts are most likely can greatly reduce the need for excessive and premature war preparations due to uncertainty and fear, leading to the “reduction of armies” mentioned in Alfred Nobel’s will as a justification for the Nobel Peace Prize. Better understanding of natural economic and social effects can greatly reduce the need for large armies.
The Reuschlein economic model, defense strategy models, and evaporation cycle explanations can all lead to reduced world tensions and the reduction of armies. The urgent need for taming global warming requires both action and understanding, and many huge mistakes will be made without modeling for the land ocean interaction caused by evaporation differences that play out over the course of 54-years and the many different geographies of planet Earth and the planet’s peoples.
Basic information about the Climate/Economy/War Cycle:
Please cite this work as follows: Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 14), “Important to Climate Change” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Important-to-Climate-Change,2019193912.aspx
Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 93 Strong Web Looks in 10+ months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.