bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the category “Economics of Empire”

Important to Climate Change

Overview

I go to events where people explain their individual global warming projections as they see the greenhouse effect theory affects the global temperature over time.  They always project based on the average rate of increase straight line.  This always gives an inaccurate fit in the current period, usually indicating a curve rising much faster than it is rising during the current period.  I then go to them after the lecture and explain to them that we are in a special short-term situation where the growth of temperature is less than the projected average growth.  I explain the cycle and give them a graph showing how accurate the cycle is.  Then they ignore me.  Sometimes I see them go to my websites and read up on my work, but they still revert to form and ignore me after giving it a lot of thought.  They stay trapped in their pre-existing frame of mind.  This is unfortunate.  Ignoring my work only leads to inaccuracies and continued naïve planning for the unique situations faced by each nation, each region, each city.  Including the 54-year cycle and recognizing the application of the cycle makes possible much more accurate long-term forecasts of the many major natural, economic, and political events of our times.  This will save money and lives.  Some say that history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.  That is a half-truth, because many situations do approximately repeat again on cycle time.  Imagine what a confused world we would live in if we could not count on the sunrise and the sunset or the coming and going of the seasons.  Someday the whole world will look at the events of the 54-year cycle as matter of fact as day and night and winter and summer.  That day will come much sooner if I win a major prize like the Nobel, Pulitzer, or MacArthur, or one of my books became a bestseller.

Natural Events

Evaporation of water happens to be the number use of solar radiation hitting the Earth.  Evaporation happens more over oceans than over land because of the lower amount of water over land.  This leaves more radiation for warming the surface over land than over water.  An estimated three times as much warming occurs initially over land compared to water.  But as land warms faster, eventually the ocean reacts to bring the whole Earth back into energy balance.  Because of varying geography over the planet, these balancing forces like rain, wind belts, ocean currents and mountains create unique circumstances in various parts of the Earth over the course of a 54-year cycle.  This makes major events like hurricanes, earthquakes, blizzards, floods, droughts, and volcanoes ebb and flow and peak at certain times in the cycle in certain places.  These events can be charted and proximately estimated to recur at certain times.  These patterns have enormous consequences for human planning and accommodating to minimize the damage and lives lost when such events occur.

Economic Events

Because high heat has a sluggish impact on the work of the human animal, hot and cold weather, tropical and temperate zones, dry hot deserts and cool humid forests, all have an impact on human output economically.  At the macro level these effects average out to show slow steady evolution of the economic growth rate over the course of the 54-year cycle.  Depressions and booms are accentuated by either long term cooling or heating trends with slight cooling helping economic growth and slight heating slowing economic growth.  Stocks and employment vary with these undercurrents.  Understanding things like how the May day to Halloween slowdown in stock markets occur worldwide can begin to better predict markets leading to greater stability.  Many fortunes will be made or lost applying these effects to economic models.

War and Social Change Events

Human exuberance and lethargy, confidence and anxiety changes as economic booms lead to new countries emerging as world leaders and competition among nations leads to war and social change tensions.  These forces ebb and flow with the changes in the 54-year cycle.  Revolutions don’t happen when despair is widespread, they occur when things begin to change for the better.  Peck order imperatives exist throughout the animal kingdom and also among human societies and nations.  Change requires struggle, whether that be by social movement, economic trade, or by war.  Knowing when these impacts are most likely can greatly reduce the need for excessive and premature war preparations due to uncertainty and fear, leading to the “reduction of armies” mentioned in Alfred Nobel’s will as a justification for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Better understanding of natural economic and social effects can greatly reduce the need for large armies.

Conclusions

The Reuschlein economic model, defense strategy models, and evaporation cycle explanations can all lead to reduced world tensions and the reduction of armies.  The urgent need for taming global warming requires both action and understanding, and many huge mistakes will be made without modeling for the land ocean interaction caused by evaporation differences that play out over the course of 54-years and the many different geographies of planet Earth and the planet’s peoples.

Basic information about the Climate/Economy/War Cycle:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 14), “Important to Climate Change” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Important-to-Climate-Change,2019193912.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 93 Strong Web Looks in 10+ months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Inciting American Violence

Overview

Thanks to the work of “Morning Joe” and the “Washington Post” the latest mass murder cases make a case for liability against the President like the skinhead murder of Mulugeta Seraw in Portland Oregon November 13, 1988 that later bankrupted a skinhead group called the White Aryan Resistance (WAR).  The courts found them liable for encouraging their members to commit racial murder, and $18 million was awarded to the plaintiffs.

Mass Murder in El Paso Texas

The statement (posted by the murderer of 22) on a racist website (HChan) talks about the invasion of Mexicans into America, and El Paso has an 85% Hispanic community.  So, driving over 700 miles to the El Paso Walmart made sense to the Trump supporter from McAllen Texas.  Invasion was mentioned on 2000 of 10,000 Facebook ads by the Trump campaign in the first seven months of 2019, and $1.25 million was spent on immigration themed ads since March 2019.  Trump and his rally audience laughed recently when an audience member said “Shoot them” when Trump asked rhetorically what to do about these immigrants.  One 2018 caravan of 20,000 individuals dwindled down to a few hundred by the time it reached the border, but this was threat enough for a major theme of the 2018 campaign for congress last Fall.  Trump and Fox News worked together to exaggerate and lie about this alleged threat to America, even calling El Paso a high crime city when in fact they are a low crime city.  The Trump campaign started in 2015 claiming immigrants were rapists and murderers and repeatedly returned to this and related themes for the entire four years since then.  Opinion polls show most Americans (51% to 46%) believe Trump to be a racist.

Washington Post

An article in the Post showed that while hate crimes are up 17% overall under Trump, the average increase in communities that held a Trump rally in 2016 was about 223% after the rally compared to before the rally.   Mass murders are at a record pace this year with already 252 murders of four or more.  Most of these qualify for the domestic terrorism definition in legal textbooks, while no law has passed like the law about international terrorism.  White nationalist terrorism deaths exceed international terrorism deaths in America these days according to the current FBI director, but may be four times as many according to former acting director Andrew McCabe in his new book.  Another account says domestic terrorism exceeded foreign terrorism against Americans in the nineties before 9-11-01 and has returned to that dominance lately.

Moscow Mitch

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has been dubbed “Moscow Mitch” by Morning Joe for sitting on two bills inspired by the Russian activity in American elections as reported in the Mueller Report.  One bill would require paper ballots in American elections to protect against internet intrusions and the other would require campaigns to report foreign involvement in our elections.  Mitch gets lots of money from gun manufacturers and election machine manufacturers, so he blocks bills for reforms in both areas, as well as protecting Trump.  In fact, despite frequent Republican calls to divert 90% approval action on gun sales background check loopholes by referring to mental illness as the explanation for mass murderers, the first bill to pass congress and be signed into law by Trump and congressional Republicans actually reversed Obama action to stop gun sales to the mentally ill, foreigners, and those on the terrorist watch list.  And most mass murderers are motivated by hate not mental illness, according to research on the issue.  M.D. Steven Mills of the University of Minnesota has found in his research that members of households with guns in them are five times more likely to die of gun death than members of households without guns.  So, owning guns does more to endanger yourself and those you love than it does to protect those in one’s household.  Thom Hartmann found in his new book that the constitutional protection for owning firearms was mostly to allow fugitive slave patrols to operate in early America.  Scalia found an obscure reason to extend the gun provision beyond “well-regulated militias” to individuals in a 1987 (circa) Supreme Court decision.

Collusion

The Russians used the non-disclosure laws and the NRA to funnel tens of millions of dollars into the Trump campaign.  Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort delivered 75 pages of Trump campaign information including the targeting of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to the Russians in August 2016.  He did so in the first-floor restaurant of the 666 5th Avenue building owned by Trump son in law and aide Jared Kushner.  The three people who attended this collusion meeting each left by separate doors when the meeting ended.  Russian Facebook sites were involved in about 3500 instances of disinformation spread during that campaign, many that went viral and were simultaneously released on both campaign and Russian sites.  They were so successful that, for instance, 46% of Republican voters believed the fake news story about Hillary Clinton running a sex ring out of a DC pizza parlor.  This story lead to an assault on the pizza parlor by one of Trump’s deranged followers, just the kind of thing that happened in Germany and Italy just before World War II.  Stories like these about brown-shirt goons were in John Kennedy’s bestselling book “While England Slept” in 1940, despite father and American Ambassador Joe Kennedy’s position in favor of Chamberlain’s Munich policy in 1938, when the defensive mountain positions in Czechoslovakia were conceded to Hitler.  Collusion continues with every private meeting between Putin and Trump, especially the Helsinki statement where Trump shows he trusts Putin over his own 17 intelligence agencies.  Later the Mueller investigation indicted 34 Russian hackers and organizations.

Empire Story

These and many other modern corruptions of the American system of government result from the basic corruption trend of the economy, politics, and social structure of America as the hold on America has increased from the high level of militarization in America ever since World War II.  This is the story of how empires crumble becoming ever more dictatorial over time, directly correlated to levels of military spending.

Additional information about Military Economic Corruption:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 12), “Inciting AmericanViolence” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Inciting-American-Violence,2019193845.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 92 Web Looks in 10+ months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Popular Old Press Releases

Overview

Press Releases are initially sent out to a list of 7000 and my average viewership is 900 per press release, usually front loaded in the first days, then weeks, then months of release.  Total viewership will exceed 200,000 in about a month.  I monitor the progress of views of my press releases several times a day since 2013.  I am only able to see totals for the most recent 50 press releases at a time.  So periodically, usually about once a year, I ask for the whole total list of 220 press releases, and then update my files for increased viewings of the older than current 50 press releases.  This shows me how amazingly popular some older press releases have become.  This is a report on how the 26,834 new views from October 4, 2017 to July 9, 2019 have shown which releases have become very popular in the after 50 category over the last 21 months.  This tends to show what those seriously interested in my work are reading or referring to others to read.

Popular Older Releases

The top 20 popular older releases are an amazing and revealing assortment.  While they range from #9 to #91 on the overall total list, so they are all in the top one hundred, and average rank 52 with average view totals of 1132 each and a range of 891 to 1738.  The 375 views average of this update represents 33% of the average total views!  By comparison, the top twenty press releases on the overall list average 2070 and includes only three of these top twenty hot oldies.  So initial and enduring impressions vary a lot.  And the overall list average has only 13% of these last 21-month updates.

Rank Order Older Releases by Update Views

      Rank Views 2017-2019 Total Views All Rank
1 646 1/23/2016 CIAPresidents 2:33am 1738 37% 9
2 514 5/28/2016 FootballBaseballWar 10 1322 39% 23
3 513 3/19/2016 NobelPrizeWatch 12am 1150 45% 40
4 497 8/26/2014 Prediction 2:10am 1564 32% 12
5 383 3/12/2016 TechnicalPeaceEcon 12 939 41% 71
6 382 11/29/2015 ViolenceCycle 12:05am 919 42% 81
7 376 2/28/2015 WalkerWorkDignity 3am 1098 34% 47
8 375 1/2/2016 CNNTop5AllEmpire 4:40 879 43% 91
9 354 4/2/2016 ScientificRevolution 12 931 38% 75
10 340 6/4/2016 DeepPoliticsIraq 4:21am 1214 28% 31
11 328 4/16/2016 CIALiveHistory 12:53am 944 35% 70
12 323 12/21/2014 10ScientificRevolution 1010 32% 62
13 317 4/23/2016 FuturePresident 11:20 911 35% 84
14 314 4/30/2016 ParadigmShiftsPE 4:45 957 33% 67
15 311 10/18/2016 ClassWarfare 5:06am 1495 21% 16
16 311 4/28/2015 NepalChile 12:00am 906 34% 86
17 310 5/14/2014 EugenePolitician 2pm 1099 28% 46
18 303 1/3/2015 ReligionEmpire 12:30 1098 28% 48
19 300 9/8/2014 10HeatHurts 11:40am 952 32% 69
20 298 10/5/2016 NobelPrizeLetter 2:10 1527 20% 15

Leading Older Releases:

“CIA Presidents: Obama Clinton” 1-23-16 leads the way with the revelations that both Democratic Party US Presidents since the end of the Cold War worked with the CIA.  These two, Clinton and Obama, also are the first elected Presidents since World War II that do not come from above average military spending per capita home states.  Their compromise with empire is not the military economy but the intelligence agencies.  This is a shift parallel with the Defense Research Institutions list from Massachusetts Institute of Technology topping the list in the Cold War and Johns Hopkins University of Baltimore topping the list with the US the sole superpower after the Cold War.  The move is from weapons engineering primacy to foreign policy primacy respectively.  George Bush, sr. as former head of the CIA (1975-1976) was also a CIA President and probably worked for the CIA in the early sixties, and there may have been others, as the CIA is very secretive.

“Football, Baseball, and War” 5-28-16

This second ranked release shows the importance of cultural dominance of an appropriate sport for an empire to have.  As USA moved from a peacetime economy between wars to the perpetual militarism of empire, so too it moved from artistic Baseball as the number one sport to American Football with all its militaristic language and brute force techniques that strongly resemble those of modern warfare.

“Nobel Peace Prize Watch” 3-19-16

This third ranked release tells the exciting story of reading into the secretive deliberations of the Norwegian Nobel Committee just by following closely the activity on my various websites.  This explains how and why I came to believe Thorbjorn Jagland took the early assignment to follow my Nobel Peace Prize nomination in early 2016.

“SF Earthquake Predicted” 8-26-14

This fourth ranked release follows the history of prediction of events with my global warming cycle theory.  Includes the June 16, 1991 Mount Pinatuba eruption that confirmed my volcanic cycle theory just after the release of my “Natural Global Warming” paper on May 7, 1991.  Goes on to anticipate the San Francisco earthquake repetition of 1906 two cycles later in 2014, precisely 108 years later, but at a low magnitude the second time.

“Technical Peace Economics” 3-12-16

This fifth ranked release is an early summary of my key findings picked up and published by the “Nonviolent Change Journal Spring 2016 Edition, May 5, 2016.”  Includes my thirteen defining correlations and the 56 cycle events and world temperature graph with perfect fitting 55 year moving average found in the academia.edu complete paper.

“War and Violence Period Cycle” 11-29-15

This sixth ranked release focuses on the economic and political cycles that produce the war cycle, the civil rights cycle, and other patterns.

“Scott Walker of Wisconsin” 2-28-15

This seventh ranked release focuses on the union busting bill of the Tea Party darling Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin who sprung a surprise ALEC extreme bill on the state right after the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2011, leading to protests of at least 10,000 daily for four weeks, including the final protest of 150,000. 

“CNN Stories:  All Empire” 1-2-16

This eighth ranked release focuses on the top five CNN stories of 2015; Rise of the Islamic State, Supreme Court Gay Marriage Decision (reflects right wing moral decay theory of empire), Paris Terror Assaults, Mass Shootings, Cops Killing Unarmed Blacks.

“Scientific Revolution Type” 4-2-16

This ninth ranked release focuses on my ten-point summary of Thomas Kuhn’s classic “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” and my own thoughts on “Ten Truths About Research.”

“Deep Politics of Iraq War” 6-4-16

This tenth ranked release focuses the story of how the CIA brought Saddam Hussein to power, used him against Iran, and then tricked him into invading Kuwait.  The rest of the story is more familiar.

Additional information about Stages of Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 24), “Popular Old Press Releases” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Popular-Old-Press-Releases,2019183228.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 81 Web Looks in 10 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Earthquake Hurricane Update

Overview

The 54-year long cycle shows up in many ways.  The normal timespan is 54 years, but it really is sometimes 27 years or sometimes 108 years.  Every 27 years global warming goes from a hot trend to a cool trend and the turning points are often marked by major hurricanes, focused on major US cities.  Flooding is considered the major threat in a hurricane, so historical flooding patterns are a main marker of the pattern.  108-year trends occur in blizzards and volcanoes because every other 54-year cycle comes when global warming is coming from the land or the ocean and Northeastern blizzards in the US or southwestern Pacific volcanoes tend to be by oceans.  This is because every other 54 year cycle is led by the Southern or Northern Hemisphere, with Southern meaning more coastal and oceanic and Northern meaning more inland and land based, just like the two Hemispheres tend to be with most of the Earth’s land in the North, and most of the Earth’s ocean in the South.  Lately, because of global warming, there have been more 27-year events rather than 54-year events.

Earthquakes

The Greater Los Angeles area had a 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Northridge in 1994 with 60 deaths and thousands injured.  Twenty-five years later, halfway to Las Vegas, the Ridgecrest earthquake of 7.1 magnitude hit in a largely unpopulated area.  That is just two years off a perfect 27-year cycle.  For comparison, the Great San Francisco 1906 earthquake had a magnitude of 7.9.  The 1989 “repeat” had a magnitude of 6.9 and collapsed the Bay Area Bridge, just two years long on the 81-year anniversary of three 27s.  Then the 108-year anniversary had a mild 6.0 quake in South Napa in 2014.  Because of the wide variance in magnitudes, the cyclic behavior of earthquakes is less rigorously scientific than other natural phenomena such as blizzards, volcanoes, hurricanes, droughts, and floods. See Water Cycle reference at the end of this release.

Hurricanes

Puerto Rico was devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017, funds for recovery estimated $100 billion, with only $10 billion delivered so far.  North Carolina was devastated by Hurricane Florence in 2018.  Both had as a predecessor Hurricane Hugo in 1989, 28 and 29 years before respectively.  These are very good fits for the 27-year cycle, only one year or two years off, respectively.  Hugo clipped a corner of Puerto Rico and went on to dump a foot of rain on North Carolina.  Maria was much worse for Puerto Rico and Florence was much worse for North Carolina with two feet of rain over most of the state.  Both show the worsening trend of global warming overall, yet the cyclical nature of how often these major events recur.

Iowa Mississippi Floods

Iowa public radio said “Farmer’s concern is understandable because this year’s corn planting progress is two weeks behind the five-year average, and tardiest since 1995” because of excessive rain.  So, a major impact of these excessive upper Midwest rains is a return to the Mississippi floods years of 1993 and 1995, with the quad cities of Iowa and Illinois facing record flood levels in 2019.  That suggests a 26 year repeat of the 1993 flood (the greater one of the 1993 and 1995 floods).  That’s only one year off the perfect 27-year repeat cycle.  Add to this the Hurricane Barry floods in Louisiana this last weekend (landfall July 13, 2019) with state capital Baton Rouge (upriver of New Orleans) facing record flood levels, also on this 26-year cycle.  According to Iowa public radio “Conditions are even worse in neighboring states. Illinois has planted only 35 percent of its intended corn acreage, Nebraska 70 percent and Missouri 62 percent. Minnesota has two-thirds planted. South Dakota’s 25 percent planted compares to the five-year average of 90-percent complete by this stage of the growing season.”  Interstate 80, a major San Francisco Chicago New York highway was completely flooded throughout much of Iowa recently after weeks of storms coming through.

Cycle Summary

All these major events recently confirm two things.  1) That the pace of the cycle is shortening more and more to the 27-year cycle from a more normal 54-year cycle thanks to global warming trends which have shown a doubling of the pace since 1973. 2) Mounting evidence shows the next global warming acceleration will begin about 2025 and even the many signs of dismal news this century must be taken in the context of a relative slowdown since 1998 of the global trend will be reversed in 2025 as the current 1994-2021 relative cooling trend of the cycle good for economic growth will go into a 2021-2048 relative warming trend bad for economic growth.  Turnarounds tend to show a four-year delay, making 1917, 1944, 1998, and 2025 the endpoints of preceding trends even though multi-year averaging tens to show 1913, 1940, 1994, and 2021 as the true turning points from a longer-term perspective.  This kind of like the exaggerated wake of a boat after turning showing up a little later than the actual turn.  We on the water planet must realize that the 71% of Earth’s surface dominated by ocean acts like a shock absorber to the warming cycle system.  Transfer of energy between the deep ocean and the surface ocean helps ensure a return to natural energy balance after 27 years of land overheating leading to 27 years of oceanic cooling.  Not counting the artic poles, land tends get about 10% more rain than ocean overall, thanks to mountains.  Rain over the poles is a tiny fraction of that over the tropics.

Additional information about Global Warming Cycle (5 p.) and important accuracy addenda (4 p.):

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 17), “Earthquake Hurricane Update” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Earthquake-Hurricane-Update,2019182966.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 79 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

What Does Peace Econ Show?

Overview

Peace Economics starts with the concept that military spending diverts manufacturing economic growth into a non-productive service of national defense of the same economic size.  That is confirmed by Ruth Sivard’s bar charts and Reuschlein’s 78-year model of manufacturing productivity in the United States.  Further study shows that military spending substitutes for manufacturing in regional economies based on states clustered around large cities.  This substitution effect lowers manufacturing employment while driving down overall economic growth and raising overall unemployment.  This substitution effect mimics local economic growth around the military spending and ignores the corresponding depletion of economic growth in manufacturing states.  All of this is shown in multiple tests of the basic concepts in several periods of substantial change in military spending, showing the effects to be well over 97% accurate in all manner of circumstances.  Hence military spending is inert manufacturing that gives little or none back to the economic growth of the economy.  The little is the possible 3% of normal 100% growth from research spin-offs.  To use a biological analogy, military spending is fat while manufacturing is protein.  Both come from the same research and capital pools vital to all national economic growth, fueled by a physical and technical abled blue-collar workforce.

Corruption of Military Spending

Peace Economics shows that high military spending mini-regions and states have crime and corruption of many kinds (crime, politics, health, mental health, economic inequality, lack of social mobility, etc.) proportional to the military spending.  Just as war leads to post traumatic stress syndrome, even planning for and preparing for war leads to demonization of the “other” and many related negative psychological effects.  The attitude is social poison, even if much is done to mitigate that attitude effect.

Historical Effects  

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the decline of empires and civilizations.  Toynbee thought 23 of 26 civilizations he studied failed due to high military spending.  Peace Economics shows in detail how many if not most of the United States national economic calamities have a significant military spending component in their unfolding.  For example, the $70 billion military surge in Iraq under President Bush announced in December 2006 or January 2007, was implemented economically in the fiscal year 10-1-07 to 9-30-08 $60 billion above trend military budget.  Those four economic quarters were exactly the four biggest drops in the economic growth rate over that time period including a few years before and since 2008.  While the ten-fold increase in derivatives since the repeal of Glass-Steagall on 11-12-99 remains the main problem and cause, the run-away real estate prices in the post 9-11 military buildup and the trigger by the surge brought the problem to a head.  The proof is that the major military buildup states were hit the hardest with real estate scams, yet the industrial states of the heartland suffered the auto industry collapse.

Social Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the social decay of empires and civilizations.  Alternative views that moral decay leads to decline ignore the direct links to economics that in turn leads to the various social decay forms such as crime, prisoners, diabetes, mental health, teen pregnancy, infant mortality, lifespan, drugs, gambling, economic inequality, and lack of social mobility, among many others.  High military Empire economies are flat, sideways oriented, control oriented, and stagnant.  Low military Emerging economies are forward looking, achievement oriented, and fast growing.  Occupations reflect these opposite styles, with lawyers, salesmen, and accountants to fight the petty battles of a stagnant economy, and engineers and scientists and entrepreneurs to lead the way in emerging societies.  Both economies have both styles in them, just more growth-oriented win/win styles in the emerging societies, and more win/lose styles and red tape in the militarized stagnant societies.

Political Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the economic power of politicians.  Half of the U.S. population is in the high military spending states and half is in the low military spending states.  The ratio is three to one, high states over low states.  This imbalance leads to about 80% of congressional leaders, cabinet members, presidents, and Supreme Court appointees coming from the high military states.  Fear based politics has grown in power over time in the modern empire society of America.  Trump has taken that to a new high in obviousness, showing the trend continues strong.

National Defense Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the long-term decline of empires and civilizations.  So, while high military spending may be necessary to fight or deter wars, economic strength is usually much more important to win wars.  Peace Economics shows that high military spending syphons off enough economic growth to endanger the national defense in a few decades time.  Hence being the most militarized nation may earn a nation temporary advantages at the expense of inevitable decline.  Holding to the world average percent of your economy devoted to military spending is a far shrewder long-time strategy.  Lower levels of military spending reduce the temptation to get into foolish wars and actual allow the military to keep ahead by maintaining a world class economy that develops first and then spins off into the military instead of looking for military economic spin-offs that are reduced by secrecy and being too narrowly militarily useful only to keep the economy strong, which doesn’t actually work.  Putting the economy ahead of the military let the United States develop the automobile and airplanes and industrial might first, making victory in World War II later possible.  High levels of military spending ever since have held America back to the point of being an ineffective power in several Asian Wars halfway around the world, a far cry from defeating powerful Germany and Japan in the World War. 

War Cycle

The Peace Economics model uses a 54-year cycle later shown by Reuschlein to originate from an energy imbalance between the continents and the oceans created by evaporation differences over land and water.  Land heats up three times as fast as water.  The continents make the first move warming into a drought period, then when balance goes too far in one direction, the ocean fights back with rains and floods bring on the cooling period.  Heat slows down construction and other work such that the 27-year cooling period doubles growth rates in the economy over the 27-year heating period, historically.  Then the cooling period high growth leads to new powers emerging and challenging the hegemonic order, usually in the last strong cooling trend of about three years at the end of the cooling cycle.  There are explainable nuances in the thousand year’s records of Rome (300 years), America (200 years), and modern Europe (500 years), but for the most part major wars follow the 54-year cycle closely.  This relative predictability makes possible significant reductions in military might in more peace-oriented times, militarizing only when necessary.

For additional information about Peace Economics accuracy:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p_13

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 10), “What Does Peace Econ Show?” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/What-Does-Peace-Econ-Show?,2019182717.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 75 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Because Of The Nine Fields

Overview

Too many people doubt the miracle science of Peace Economics because they don’t recognize 1) that I’m honest and my work can be replicated 2) it really does take all nine of these fields that have three years full time work equivalent in each field.  Take away any of these nine building blocks and the theory would be inadequate to the understandings needed to create the precise science models that have resulted.

Math

A comprehensive understanding of the field of math provides many tools needed for a thorough investigation. “Triangulation” is an essential technique to prove a finding from a variety of methods or angles.  “Differential Equations” always have a sinusoidal solution and this insight is vital to both the long-term economic model design and the long-term temperature modeling.  “La Place Transform” is a technique to highlight time frequencies of repeating events from any data set and leads to a compelling proof of long cycle theory.

Wargaming  

“Conflict Simulation Modeling” game design improves judgement and model building skills in a variety of ways.  “Probability” life is uncertain, and probability is extensively studied and used in wargaming.  “Military History” is the ideal strived for in wargame design, hence history is popular among gamers and helps in defense strategy modeling.

Science

“Laws of Physics” the order and precision of the universe and gravity guides much of what we do.  Six semesters of college physics define much of how our physical world precisely works.   “Momentum” defense modeling relies on the tendency of nations to maintain a fixed army or navy size over time, sort of like a conservation of momentum.

Engineering

“Control Theory” divides into a response phase and a steady state phase.  This explains the form of the long-term model, with a normal sinusoidal component and an abrupt discontinuity to a lower downward track for the Great Depression thirties and later the Oil Crisis seventies.  “Multi-Year Averaging” engineers need to estimate situations various ways, and this is one technique used extensively in my investigation to locate tops and bottoms of long term paths.

Accounting

“Bookkeeping” is a system of keeping track of data in various categories to give meaning to the results.  Various social data categories help show the depth and breadth of empire decay beyond the economic.  “Present Fairly” is a clause in the CPA financial statement that emphasizes the ethical code of a CPA.  This concept leads to estimations being used to fill in otherwise empty blanks.  Accounting leads to an attitude of forced completion that does not tolerate incomplete pictures.  This discipline makes sure the estimation muscle is exercised and improves intelligent estimating abilities.

Business

“Entrepreneurship” is a skill in organizing and guiding efforts towards a result, as well as an openness to new ideas.  “Decision Trees” show how one thing leads to another, a key investigative technique used extensively in my model building.

Politics

“Covers Everything” A legislative internship is an amazing window on how expert testimony in committees sheds amazing light on all manner of human endeavors.  General information can be extremely detailed and informative.  One of my greatest educational experiences was working in the legislative arena. “Social Science” going to hundreds of committee meetings in the civic calendar is also an extraordinary education.  In politics I learned about the Kondratiev Wave 54-year cycle and the importance of nine-year Juglar cycles, two key components to the long-term economic model that economists hardly ever mention much less use.

Peace Economics

“Follow the Dominoes” follow the money helps confirm the nature of military spending and shows how the military spending domino leads to various adverse consequences of an empire society directly related to the military spending.  Politics is perverted and controlled, as is health crime and social-economic consequences.

Warming Cycle

“Evaporation Energy Balance” the Earth’s land warms about three times as fast as the ocean, yet energy balance requires this to balance out over time.  Sixteen long term records of temperature and precipitation helped locate the driving forces in this process by dividing the Earth up in various ways.  “Three Cycles Confirm” the 54-year cycle resides in natural, economic, and war timing data.  Relating these three fields helps confirm the bona fides of all three separate forms of the cycle.

For additional information about the seventeen main findings:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

See my Curriculum Vitae for the nine fields on my resume:  https://realeconomy.academia.edu/RobertReuschlein/CurriculumVitae

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, June 26), “Because Of The Nine Fields” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Because-of-the-Nine-Fields,2019182265.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 71 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Value of Telling the Truth 

Overview

In this era of Fake News and those who seek the truth being labelled “Enemies of the People”, honesty seems almost an endangered species. While those in pursuit of science seek truth as their goal, those who practice more social skills still value the white lie.  Finding the truth on the internet is an elusive endeavor.

Personal History

Truth has been my North Star just as much as mathematics has been to me personally.  Math and truth are similar in being very straight forward and exacting.  Very early in life I committed to never lie.  I might be silent sometimes or perhaps change the subject, but I do not remember telling a lie until I was 23 years old.  I was very fierce about this, and still am very resistant to anything that is not the truth.  I remember an eighth grader bullying a fellow third grader on the path home from school and that’s when I committed to social justice.  It is said “to one’s own self be true and to no one else can thou be false.”  This works for me.  Lying only makes things confusing and too complicated to follow well.  The liar reaches the point of the saying “Oh what I tangled web we weave once we begin to deceive.”  Kind of like saying it’s hard to be true to your lies.

Truth  

Telling the truth, being always truthful, has been very important in building my personal understanding of life.  When confronted with two seemingly contradictory facts, I have always looked for ways both can be true.  This has sometimes taken some time but sooner or later an explanatory vision will come to me.  This tool has been important in building my scientific model of the world and how the world works.  Others will quit and be satisfied with confusion and “just let it go” but I keep the thought in the back of my mind until resolution results.  In this way I am always trying to learn, and always striving for more perfect understanding.

Tactlessness

Adhering to the principle of truth makes the white lie a skill I have refused to develop.  Some people, most people, would rather be liked or appreciated, but I value respect and attention more.  This springs from my devotion to honesty.

Trust

In the Spirit Level, Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger book (2009-2011 Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett) the authors find that trust is the most important variable in why income inequality weakens societies.  Trust comes from honesty and truth telling.

Lying

“Diogenes of Sinope (c. 404-323 BCE) was a Greek Cynic philosopher best known for holding a lantern (or candle) to the faces of the citizens of Athens claiming he was searching for an honest man.” (Ancient History Encyclopedia).  Lying has been found in 24% of resumes and half of all academic articles have false data used. The president has been documented by the Washington Post and the New York Times in over 10,000 lies.  What is amazing is that the president’s followers believe he tells the truth.  Thanks to the new “Pravda” state TV of Fox News his easily debunked view of the world is substantiated by his sycophants.  But the problem of lying is that the truth comes out eventually.  But zealots everywhere have trouble recognizing the truth.  It is easier to recognize the truth if you live a truthful life.  Trump knows branding and marketing but has no interest in sticking to the truth if it damages the marketing.  Nazi Joseph Goebbels knew it didn’t matter if the truth got out so long as the propaganda narrative remained preeminent.

Modern World

In the modern world of the internet, truth is hard to discern, and may even be confusing to the younger generation because it is so elusive.  When you talk about truth, they give you blank stares.  Late Night TV host Stephen Colbert has even coined the word “truthiness” to convey this ambiguity.  Wikipedia states “Truthiness is the belief or assertion that a particular statement is true based on the intuition or perceptions of some individual or individuals, without regard to evidence, logic, intellectual examination, or facts.”

Peace Economics

In pursuit of the truth by research and engineering, art science and math all play important roles.  When the broad picture is a little muddy, various ways of examining the details can help enormously to clarify whatever is the truth.  This is often a search for highs, lows, and parameters for an underlying model then testing that model against the actual data to see what scale fits most exactly.  If it is basic truth, it should work best under the most extreme circumstances, like World War II or the Great Depression.  My economic model has gradually improved over the last hundred years as the annual precision has approached the accuracy of the long-term model.  Fine tuning then leads to more unexplained details standing out.  Such a process should never be confused or dismissed as cherry-picking, it is just the recognition that even when theory explains most cases, there will always be details that need a new explanation, often a relatively obvious explanation.  That is the nature of engineering science.  Follow the data closely and with a wide range of perspectives or fields, if you are looking for the truth.  Don’t let red herrings based on knowledge you are making obsolete lead you astray from findings that better explain the totality of the circumstances.

For additional information about this see:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, June 19), “Value of Telling the Truth” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Value-of-Telling-the-Truth,2019182057.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 68 in 8.5 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Empire Climate 32 Chapters

Overview        Here is the first draft of my 32 Chapter book table of contents with brief descriptions for each chapter followed by brief titles of the 216 press releases with their dates of release relevant to each chapter, listing in reverse chronological order.  The working book title is “Weather Wealth and Wars“ subtitled “Empire and Climate Economics”

  1. Introduction to Empire Theory A) Why Is USA an Empire? 11/5/2017; B) 12 Stages of Empire 9/29/2014; C) Military Terror Policing 8/17/2014; D) Peace Economics Matters 7/4/2014; E) Empire Concept 2/18/2014
  2. Social Decay of Empire. Empire societies are stagnant. As the frustration increases, win/lose “sideways” behaviors are rewarded.  Crime increases, with drugs and gambling sought out to paper over the pain.  Feudalism is the result, with the rise of militarism, the church, lords and serfs, at the expense of science and achievement.  A) Misogyny and Empire 9/10/2018; B) Militarism Distorts USA 8/14/2018; C) Income Inequality 4/29/2018; D) Military Economic Corollary 3/11/2017; E) Modern Empire 8/6/2016; F) Violent Society 7/23/2016; G) Football Baseball War5/28/2016; H) Peace Culture Economics 3/27/2015; I) Control Freak Society 3/14/2015; J) 12 Days of Empire 11/29/2014; K) 10 Empire Warps 10/12/2014; L) 10 Football Warlike 10/5/2014; M) Work and Empire 7/26/2014; N) Football and Empire 12/15/2013; O) Health and Crime 12/13/2013; P) Crime and Empire 12/5/2013
  3. Empire Trap. Empires go through several stages, rising due to natural defenses like oceans and a citizen military. Challenging the old empire in an epic battle gives one a taste of militarism.  Power and control prove seductive enough to develop a permanent military that drags the whole system down over time.                               A) Need to Know About Empire 1/8/2019; B) Born in The USA 12/14/2018; C) Demagoguery US 11/2/2018; D) Pride Comes Before Empire Fall 3/11/2018; E) CNN Top 5 All Empire 1/2/2016; F) Solstice Shopping 12/27/2014
  4. Historical Cases. American myths about World War II and the Great Depression allowed the myth of military Keynesianism to grow despite many examples of disastrous war spending in other nations.         A) How Empire Emerged 1/28/2018; B) Empire Explains 9/17/2016; C) War Decisions 9/9/2016; D) Deep Politics Iraq 6/4/2016; E) History 100 Years US 4/9/2016; F) CIA Presidents 1/23/2016; G) Modern Feudalism 2/21/2015; H) Religion Empire 1/3/2015; I) Hoover Great Depression 6/14/2014; J) Roosevelt 5/16/2014; K) Truman War 4/20/2014; L) Ukraine Crimea 3/4/2014
  5. International Military Economy. The resources used in the military budget are just like those of good producing industries like manufacturing. But there is no useful consumer product coming from the military.  So military spending depletes key capital and scientific talent normally devoted to growth industries.                     A) Technology Loser 12/21/2018; B) Military Economy Direct 3/6/2017; C) Nature of Military Spending 7/2/2016; D) Key Public Peace Economics 3/5/2016; E) War Occupy Economics 5/8/2015; F) Trade and the Military 1/17/2014;
  6. Regional Impact of Military Spending. All regions pay the military taxes, but only certain regions benefit from the spending, while other regions suffer recession from the tax drain. When the military is cut, the winners and losers switch places.  The low military regions boom and the high military regions suffer.                           A) Military in Society 12/28/2018; B) Military Geography 8/7/2017; C) Senate Power Republicans 7/31/2017; D) Rigged Electoral College 11/26/2016; E) Regional Military Economy 2/1/2015; F) Elections Plus 11/13/2014; G) Military States 4/26/2014; H) Key Midwest 1/21/2014;
  7. Military Spending Politics. Study of military build-ups and build-downs shows that the power positions in congress share the military budget with the president’s home state. All presidents elected during the Cold War came from high military spending states, thanks to fundraising and foreign focus advantages in those states.  A) Dictatorship Playbook 5/9/2019; B) You Think Its Okay 3/30/2019; C) Milwaukee Socials 3/26/2019; D) Power Corrupts 8/26/2018; E) Trump Russia Fire Fury 1/14/2018; F) Russia Hack Election 12/12/2016; G) Total War Politics 12/8/2016; H) Hillary Critics 2/27/2016; I) Walker Work Dignity 2/28/2015; J) Military Money Power 8/10/2014.
  8. Military Kondratiev Model. The model is based on military spending driving the economy down and deficits lifting the economy up. With those adjustments, the US, German, and world economy all follow a Kondratiev sine wave of 54 years, perfecting the fit every Juglar investment cycle of about nine years.                           A) Process Peace Economics 3/26/2016; B) Technical Peace Economics 3/12/2016; C) Create Economic Model 2/14/2015.
  9. Defense Strategy. Timing is everything. With major wars coming every fifty years or so, eroding the economy with too high military spending too soon and for too long will leave the nation weak for the next major war.   A) Reduce War System 4/2/2018; B) Peace Security Economy 1/1/2018; C) Military Defense 12/5/2015; D) Peace Hard Sell 11/7/2015; E) Leadership Ethics 9/18/2015; F) Fear of the Unknown 4/12/2015; G) Worthless War 1/23/2015; H) Paris Terror 1/8/2015; I) Wargames 4/5/2014.
  10. Power Elite. Many corporate directors sit on both a major bank board and a major military contractor board. This helps explain the unholy alliance between business and the military. The press has similar overlap with the intelligence agencies.          A) Idle Money Devil’s Workshop 1/29/2019; B) How Right Wing Controls USA 7/8/2018; C) Plot to Destroy America 7/3/2018; D) Conspiracy Theory 6/14/2018; E) Media Influence CIA 5/28/2018; F) CIA Live History 4/16/2016; G) National Security State 11/22/2015.
  11. Stock Market. Almost two months after the Republicans took over congress in 1994 you could have bought a cross section of major military stocks and still received an average gain of 70% eighteen months later.   A) Disruption of 8 Industries 5/22/2019; B) High Interest 11/11/2016; C) Class Warfare 10/18/2016; D) Trade Wars 6/18/2016; E) Banking and the Military 1/2/2014.
  12. Future. The future is fairly predictable. High military nations will lose share of the world economy and low military nations will gain share of the world economy.  The major nations experiences both during and after the Cold War are readily explained by their military spending levels.                A) Future President 4/23/2016; B) Useful Peace Economics 1/16/2016; C) Animal Peace Economics 12/28/2015; D) Economic Conversion 7/3/2015; E) Turkeys of the Arboretum 5/31/2015; F) Education Peace Economics 4/19/2015; G) World Governance 2/7/2015.
  13. Summary Broad. The expertise used and paradigm shifts required to understand this interdisciplinary approach to understanding America in the world today. A brief review of the major understandings employed in this approach.        A) Architecture Peace Economics 4/30/2019; B) Valuable Peace Economics 10/1/2018; C) Good Concepts Update 5/13/2018; D) Middle Year Empire Update 7/16/2017; E) Reuschlein World 6/13/2015; F) Capitalism or Empire 11/23/2014. G) Real Peace Economics or Not 6/7/2014
  14. Summary Possibilities. This section reviews how different interest groups ought to view and use this research with their constituencies. Also takes a look at how warming cooling and cycle theory affect the climate issues of today.   A) Spectrum Peace Economy 9/21/2018; B) Great Reads Make 5/6/2018; C) Constitutional Military Cost 3/4/2018; D) Terror Cost to Society 2/25/2018; E) Changing World Views 10/8/2017; F) Hottest Downloads 4/14/2017; G) Communicate Peace Economics 2/20/2016; H) Invade Next 2/13/2016; I) Empire Research Lost 1/25/2015; J) Record Month Peace Economics 1/14/2014; K) New Class Curriculum 1/7/2014; L) Misguided Liberals and Conservatives 1/5/2014.
  15. Military Economics Summary A) Findings Claims 11/16/2017; B) Wargamer to Peace 7/2/2017; C) Wargaming Gygax 3/31/2017; D) Peace Politics 1/9/2016; E) Peace Economics the Only Way 10/10/2015; F) Military Dis-Economics 11/3/2014; G) 10 Military Domestic Effects 9/15/2014; H) Proof of Peace Economics 7/12/2014; I) Next Generation Economics 12/30/2013.
  16. Introduction to Climate Theory                                                                                          A) Cycle Matters 8/3/2014; B) Cycle Crucial 2/24/2014
  17. Civilization and Climate History. The last three thousand years have shown a pattern of civilizations rising and falling with temperature changes in the Mediterranean Sea area. As temperatures rose more Northerly civilizations thrived and as temperatures fell more Southerly civilizations thrived.  A) Great Pivot Climate 2/19/2019; B) Egypt to Britain Climate Change 1/24/2014
  18. Evaporation and Water. Worldwide, 85% of solar radiation is used to evaporate water, higher over ocean and lower over land. This causes many complex land ocean interactions and makes the water cycle dominant over the temperature cycle. A) 10 Evaporation Impacts 9/22/2014; B) Evaporation 7/19/2014.
  19. World Weather. The largest land mass on the planet dominates the worlds weather in many ways, with half the world’s land in the Eurasia North Africa part of the Northern hemisphere. North America acts as a backwater to that Sahara Siberia dominated system.            A) Land Ocean Cycle 7/30/2016.
  20. Weather Cycle. With land three times as sensitive to temperature changes as the ocean, long cycles of major droughts, floods, volcanoes, earthquakes, hurricanes and blizzards can be documented in US weather. The Earth cycle pattern and causes are discussed.    A) Hurricane Planet Dynamics 9/10/2017; B) Texas Harvey 8/27/2017; C) Prediction 8/26/2014; D) Hurricane Climate Cycle 2/7/2014; E) Philippines Typhoon 11/12/2013; F) Typhoon Haiyan 11/11/2013.
  21. World Correlations. Various regions of the globe respond to other regions as the world goes through the long cycle. We look in greater detail into the oddities of world weather systems under changing circumstances.                                                  A) Earth Cycle 3/21/2014; B) Cold Winter 2/14/2014.
  22. Volcanoes. Major volcanoes cool the earth for two or three years after eruption. Warming spurts can set the stage for major eruptions and carbon dioxide releases by major volcanoes can be very significant.           A) Nepal Chile 4/28/2015; B) Chile Volcano 4/24/2015.
  23. Climate and the Economy. Various research and observations about the relationship between warming and poor economies and cooling and strong economies. Looking at personal, worldwide, and United States models of this phenomena. A) 10 Ways Heat Hurts 9/8/2014; B) Climate and Economics 12/3/2013.
  24. Kondratiev Cycle. Looking at the climate, generational theory, and innovation models of explanation for the long cycle. Also looking at population, life cycle, and skepticism about these models. A) Kondratiev Cycle 2/9/2014
  25. Economic Cycle. Looking at the various markers of economic extremes that support the theory of a long cycle in economics. Including growth rates, inflation, interest rates, stock market crashes, and unemployment.                                                A) History Repeats 3/20/2014
  26. War Cycle. Examines the record, especially for American wars, and reasons to explain the regularity of the war cycle. Even the irregularities and lesser wars tend to support certain common-sense notions.                                                                          A) Rights Climate Cycle 10/30/2018; B) Demonization Fuels Military 4/8/2018; C) Gun Control March 3/26/2018; D) Violence Cycle 11/29/2015; E) Baltimore Riot 5/2/2015; F) Gestalt 1961-2015 1/17/2015; G) 10 Ferguson Jury Mistakes 12/6/2014; H) War Cycle 11/16/2014; I) Democracy Ukraine US 9/1/2014; J) Civil Rights 3/29/2014; K) Cold Year Wars 12/19/2013.
  27. Greenhouse Effect. Examines the global warming and US warming records and various theories of manmade impacts, including the emerging consensus of the IPCC report in February 2007.            A) Climate Theory Clarified 7/27/2018
  28. Green Economy. How are the Kyoto Treaties and business reactions leading the world into the necessary changes. What are the trends in these changes?
  29. Warming Summary; A) Three Cycles Or One 9/17/2017; B) Weather Wealth Wars 1/11/2017; C) 15 Year Pause 4/12/2014.
  30. Scientific Revolution; A) Foreign Domestic Difference 4/23/2019; B) Interdisciplinary Insights 1/21/2018; C) Scientific Methods Vary 12/10/2017; D) Teaching Peace Econ 9/4/2017; E) Math Reductio Ad Absurdum 7/9/2017; F) Peace Science 1/21/2017; G) Many Go Wrong 9/24/2016; H) Paradigm Shifts Peace Economics 4/30/2016; I) Scientific Revolutions 4/2/2016; J) Shoulders of Giants 10/31/2015; K) First Gandhi 10/17/2015; L) Difficulty Along Way 6/20/2015; M) Economic Engineering 6/5/2015; N) Macro Micro 4/4/2015; O) 10 Scientific Revolution Facts 12/21/2014; P) 10 How Research Works 10/19/2014; Q) Reputation 8/24/2014; R) Peace Economics: How I Did It 6/21/2014; S) Numbers Words 1/30/2014; T) Peace Economics Peace Studies 1/9/2014.
  31. Nobel Peace Prize; A) Systemic Review 2/26/2019; B) Follow Norwegians 10/8/2018; C) Nobel Peace Year 10/1/2017; D) Odds on Nobel Prize 6/12/2017; E) Biography Peace 1/28/2017; F) Econ Perversion 12/29/2016; G) Nobel Prize Path 12/16/2016; H) Nobel Prize Letter 10/5/2016; I) Nobel Prize Watch 3/19/2016; J) Response Norway 2/6/2016; K) Nobel Peace Nominee 1/27/2016; L) 10 Nobel Pathways 10/25/2014.
  32. Biography; A) Great Gygax, Maybe Britain 6/18/2017; B) Congratulations 5/22/2017; C) Game Master Gygax 5/14/2017; D) Telos Institute 5/5/2017; E) Creative Life 4/22/2017; F) Nerd Number One 3/18/2017; G) Special Award   9/2/2016; H) Denmark Hamlet 8/20/2016; I) Peace Respect 1/31/2016; J) Learn in Japan 9/5/2015; K) Hiroshima Feature 7/18/2015; L) Film Made Peace Economics 6/27/2015; M) Nader Yale Data 5/24/2015; N) Top 10 Reasons for Radio Host 11/5/2014; O) Global Citizen Nomination 6/28/2014; P) Wargamer to Doctor Peace 5/30/2014; Q) Nashville 5/25/2014; R) Eugene Politician 5/14/2014; S) Doctorate 5/9/2014; T) No Ethanol 5/2/2014; U) Peace Economics 1st Course 3/18/2014; V) Peace Economics First Book 3/14/2014; W) How Peace Economics Starts 3/8/2014; X) Grandpa Markham Horicon Marsh 3/1/2014; Y) Peace Songs 1/12/2014; Z) Dr. Robert Reuschlein 10/10/2013.

For additional information about this see:

https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages_2015

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 29), “Empire Climate 32 Chapters” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Empire-Climate-32-Chapters,2019181359.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 60 in 8 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019. Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Disruption of 8 Industries

Overview

Adoption of the new Reuschlein sciences of economics, empire theory, and the global warming cycle will change everything, especially disrupting certain industries and many fields.  Here is a partial list.

Economic Development

Proofs over many decades, the Cold War, the twentieth century, and now the twenty-first century 9-11 military buildup, Great Recession, and Obama Trump recovery show continuous proof that military spending increases hurt manufacturing, productivity, capital investment, and economic and jobs growth rates precisely and in every situation.  Bottom line research and capital resources of a nation can be used to grow the economy and produce goods or be diverted into power projection through military spending, but the choice is binary, one avenue leads to economic growth and the other leads to lost manufacturing jobs transferred over to the defense service “make work” economy instead to give a false impression of economic growth.  In fact, the “make work” economy depresses manufacturing states in order to give pseudo-growth to military spending states, as research and capital are merely redeployed among the states using the federal budget process.  The result is re-arranged economic growth in an atmosphere of overall reduced growth.  This pattern can be supplemented by deficit or tax cut economic growth to camouflage or offset the negative military economy effect.  Changes in deficit minus military change the economic growth rate.  Measured in economic growth rate, jobs growth rate, or unemployment rate change all work about the same, relative to trend.

Economic Prediction

The uncanny accuracy long term of the Reuschlein economic model shows up increasingly clearly over time, as annual poor accuracy becomes more accurate like the decade long Juglar cycle accuracy over time.  The in between years in a nine-year Juglar investment cycle show an 80% reduction in volatility from the twenties to the eighties as industries gradually conquer the inventory recessions so common before 1980.  Now recessions since 1982 in America have followed the nine-year Juglar cycle, 1982, 1991, 2001, and 2009.  Trade war might give the next recession in 2020, just as trade war gave us the Great Depression in the early thirties.  Withdrawal from Iraq military cuts lead to unemployment rate reductions in the five years from 2011 to 2015 at almost twice the rate of the military buildup years from 2016 to 2018.  The current formula looks like accuracy is now coming in the annual year by year situation, not just in the decade long Juglar cycle.  The new short-term formula:  deficits add to economic growth and military spending reduces economic growth, dollar for dollar.

Political Prediction   

Because there is nothing in the federal government budget like military spending.  It is the largest category of expense in the authorized budget, about half of the total.  Most of the rest of the budget is entitlements or otherwise relatively fixed in distribution among the states.  During the Cold War 80% of the variation of per capita federal spending in each state was caused by the military spending differences, with about half the states getting half the national average of military spending per capita, and the other half getting 150% of the national average for the military.  This makes those who control the military budget the most powerful people in congress, along with the president.  These people not only dominate the leadership positions in congress (80% from high military states and 20% from low military states, but they also dominate the presidential primaries and general election, such that high military state candidates won all eleven Cold War elections and the seven major party nominees from low military spending states all lost.  Post Cold War the two Democratic presidents came from CIA backgrounds and low military spending states.  Military research funding is in the top three states of California, Massachusetts, and North Carolina, with Silicon Valley, Route 128, and Research Triangle respectively.  California has four times that of the other two.  Post Cold War the top research institution went from MIT to Johns Hopkins, from weapons to foreign policy, with the increase in the CIA noted in the elected presidents.

Social Mobility Prediction   

Large military spending will devastate manufacturing over time, changing a technology-oriented economy (manufacturing) into a services-oriented economy (financial and defense).  This state of empire created also dries up social mobility creating a class-based society.  I notice this all the time as increasingly elites from media, Hollywood, and government are the sons and daughters of previous elites.  High growth encourages diversity and low growth (military empire) encourages classism and nepotism.  Markets are fluid, political command is rigid.

National Defense Strategy

The military economic effect is so dominant in economics that those nations that overdo military defense will pay a very heavy price in the long run.  Minimizing your defense maximizes your growth and maximizes great power longevity.  The heavy-handed empire defense will always backfire in the long run.  Lightweight English bows and arrows defeated the heavy armored French in the battle of Agincourt.  Land armies are always much more expensive than navies, because they are essential for all land powers.  Sea powers are protected from land armies by large bodies of water, like the English Channel, or the Japan Sea, or America’s two oceans, hence they can defend more cheaply.

Investment Predictions

Changes in the military budget affect the low military inland Great Lakes area manufacturing states even more than their direct effect on military states, about two to four times as much.  But because this effect is not obvious, the inland manufacturing states are largely at the mercy of the coastal military states.  Because of the preference for military spending in the Republican party and for domestic spending in the Democratic party, changes in political parties controlling congress will have profound changes in regional economies.  This was so overlooked in 1994 that you could have waited two months to invest in defense stocks and still made a 70% profit a year and a half later.  Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio are four of the top five manufacturing states that will boom the next time military spending goes down.  California, Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia, and Arizona are traditional high military spending states that boom during military buildups.  In the four decades since the top tax rate was dropped 60% by Reagan in 1981-1984, banks have grown their relative share of the economy ten-fold and the top 1% income earners have quadrupled their share of national income while the lower 99% have flat lined.  All these effects are predictable outcomes of empire economics.

Climate Change Predictions

The Greenhouse Effect is all the rage while we ignore the evaporation effect.  Modifying Greenhouse predictions with the evaporation effect 54-year cycle and we greatly increase temperature change prediction accuracy.  Current climate change estimates are being underestimated because we are in the cooling half of the cycle from 1998 to 2025.  Climate change will dramatically accelerate after 2025, catching the experts by surprise.

Hurricane Predictions

Every other generation floods and droughts are regionally predictable, as well as blizzards.  Major volcanoes tend to come from the tropical area where the Indian and Pacific Oceans meet.  But the greatest opportunities for cyclic prediction of natural events are in the hurricane area.  New Orleans, Miami, North Carolina, and New York each have their own unique regional cyclic pattern.  These repeat mostly on a 54-year cycle basis plus or minus a couple years.  However, North Carolina and Miami have 27-year repetitions give or take a year or two.  Regularization of this approach could give greater reliability for protection of these communities.

The Seventeen Findings of Peace Economic Theories:  https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 22), “Disruption of 8 Industries” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Disruption-of-8-Industries,2019181131.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 57 in 8 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.        Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Architecture Peace Economy

Putting Dominoes in Order

The first domino of military spending shows a perfect inverse relationship with manufacturing productivity growth for the seven largest industrialized capitalist country economies during the Cold War.  The second domino uses capital investment versus military spending from 1960-80, and perfects for the four largest NATO economies plus Sweden.  One finding says military spending is lost manufacturing and the other says it is lost capital investment.  That is virtually the same message when you understand that most capital investment goes into manufacturing.  That the manufacturing is stronger and broader suggest a variability in financial investment.  The third domino is federal government deficit with the large-scale experiment of World War Two 1941-48 proving the basic point that deficits lift the economy as much as military spending depresses the economy.

Connections to First Domino

The first domino of military spending and the economy is so stunning that the next thing to do is to put the idea to the test as many ways and in as many major academic fields as possible.  The first major test was to build an accurate long-term model in the United States economy.  This was easily the toughest first big test and took about six months of work with hundred-year long data sets of economic statistics including dozens of various multi-year averaging’s to find the turning points in history.  The fourth domino is from the obvious economic boom of the fifties and sixties, the Kondratiev Wave of long-term booms and busts.  Detailed modeling using a 54 year cycle showed annual variability on domino one (manufacturing productivity growth rate) net of domino three (deficit).  Then the next stunner was how the variability disappeared every nine or so years into perfection again.  This was domino five, the Juglar investment cycle of 8-10 years.  The basic model was also roughly confirmed in partial modeling on the German and world economies.

Foreign Policy Connections

Foreign policy is built around the idea that you need a strong economy and military to be a dominant power in the world.  But most social science modeling mistakenly assumes a strong military can lead to a strong economy.  The first domino shows this is a false assumption.  Then I devoted a chapter in my first book Peace Economics (1986) to studying the implications of the economy versus military power trade-off, producing two curves, one arithmetic and one geometric to help decide the proper trade-offs for short term and long-term wars.  The key point is the new Reuschlein model and information points to a “necessary substantial reduction in armies” required of all countries that wish to defend their country well in the coming decades before and during the next war.  This domino includes an assessment of when major wars occur, which brings us back to the fourth domino of the Kondratiev Wave 54-year cycle between major wars which come about 18 years after second biggest wars of a cycle.  This is domino six the change in defense strategy all nations must undergo with the new reality.

Domestic Connections and the Empire Model

Domino seven is the relationship between the military and politics.  The more military per capita of a home state, the more powerful is the politician representing that state.  In all eleven elections of the Cold War, Presidents came from home states in the high military spending half of America.  This bias looks about 80% true for leading political positions like congressional leadership, cabinet members, and Supreme Court appointees.  Domino eight is the relationship between the military budget and the local state and regional economies.  Domestically military spending merely transfers resources between the manufacturing heavy states and the military spending heavy states.  Overall military buildups depress manufacturing jobs and investments to transfer those productive resources into national defense services.  Domino nine is the relationship between military spending and murder and crime rates.  As the economy goes down crime goes up and real estate markets get corrupted leading to financial crises.  Domino ten is the connection between the military and income inequality, low social mobility, low mental health, high teen birthrates, high obesity, and the many other social indicators (such as escapism, gambling and drugs) of a declining empire.  Declining empires are frustrating places for the citizens.  Challenger nations rise on low military spending and after they become empires, decline on high military spending.

Environmental Connections and Global Warming Cycle

Domino eleven come from a three-year effort (1988-1991) to connect the 54-year cycle to its natural roots.  After endlessly poring over 16 century long data sets of the major sections of the planet Earth, I gradually saw how it all fit together in a great pattern.  27 years of warming weakens the economies of the world followed by 27 years of cooling boosting the economies of the world.  Major volcanoes, blizzards, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and wars and social upheavals like riots and social movements all follow the great cycle in its natural, economic, and political dimensions.  Evaporation slows the warming process such that oceans are the coolest and lands warm three times faster than oceans before all the feedback loops kick in creating the cycle.  Droughts peak in the last decade of the warming phase followed by a decade of heavy floods in the first decade of the cooling phase.  2025 is the end of the current cooling (slower warming) phase and global warming will redouble its efforts after that year.  Look out!  Hurricane Sandy (2012) led to a stunning confirmation of the accuracy of this cycle.

Presentation at the American Association of Geographers 4-7-19:

https://www.academia.edu/38937971/Military_Geography_16ppt_on_2_pages_4-7-19

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, April 30), “Architecture Peace Economy” Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Architecture-Peace-Economy,2019180316.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 49 in 7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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