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Military Complex Geography

Wherever the military industrial complex resides it co-opts those around it in many ways.  This release is mainly an analysis of the Fiscal Year 2015 Defense Spending by State published by the US Department of Defense compared with my own prior analyses of related matters.

Military Concentrations in America

Military concentrations by state always start out with the big four, Virginia, Hawaii, Alaska and the District of Columbia.  Then the rest of the top ten are usually Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Connecticut, Alabama and Arizona.  I have looked at 1980, 1984, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2015 over the years.  In 2015 these are all in the top 14, with Kentucky, Maine, and Rhode Island, rising to this top level.  Among the big eight population states, California, Texas, and Florida have consistently been in the high military category, while New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan have been consistently low military, a clear South versus North split.  Indeed, the nation as a whole tends to follow this North versus South split, with few and rare exceptions, except the coastal corners, Washington and New England.  In 1991 dividing the nation into 28 North states and 22 South states, the South had twice the military spending level of the North.  In 2015 the 22 high military spending states had half the US population comparable to the 28 low military spending states.  But the military spending was clearly split 70% in the high states to 30% in the low states.  The lowest military spending region is clearly the Great Lakes states including New York, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.  Other than the Eastern two, these are commonly called the industrial Midwest states.  This is a common pattern among all the states, where the military is high, the manufacturing is low and vice versa.  This is also the common pattern when the military budget is changing, the high military buildup states’ economies move in the opposite direction of the low military high manufacturing states.  This pattern is well understood in military states but rarely understood in manufacturing states. Manufacturing state economic volatility is greater than military states.

Most Militarized States in America

The 2015 report shows three clear high military spending counties in America.  Fairfax in Northern Virginia where the CIA and Pentagon are nearby, San Diego California where the Pacific fleet is based, and Tarrant County Texas where the F-35 aircraft is manufactured by number one defense contractor Lockheed Martin in the Fort Worth western suburb of Dallas.  Fort Worth is located in Texas Congressional District 12 of the chair of the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee, while Texas District 13 adjacent to 12 has the chair of the House Armed Services Committee.  Former President Bush awarded the F-35 contract to his home state, a very common political practice.  But while the $15.3 Billion for San Diego, and the $13.6 Billion for Forth Worth’s County look very impressive, the Fairfax Virginia total of $17.0 Billion is just a part of the $25.7 Billion including adjacent Virginia Counties, and the $44.1 Billion in the DC metro area including ten entities in DC, Maryland, and Virginia.  No wonder the nation’s capital has seven of the nation’s richest counties located there, with various studies showing one third higher pay for military contractors:  white collar, blue collar, and engineers,  compared to other manufacturing.  Other studies show defense consultants making multiples of medical doctor pay.

States Ranked by Large Military Complex

  1. Virginia (per capita #1) has the largest cluster with $25.7 billion in Northern Virginia with the CIA and Pentagon. It also has the second largest with $16.8 billion in Southern Virginia.for the Atlantic fleet. Virginia has three members sitting on the four key military committees, including the former vice presidential candidate Senator Kaine (D-VA). Senator Warner (D-VA) is ranking member on Intelligence, a key committee looking into the Russian election tampering.
  2. California (per capita #23) has the third largest cluster with $15.3 billion in the San Diego base of Pacific fleet. The Los Angeles metro cluster is $14.7 billion including the site of the San Bernadino terrorist attack and Santa Clara Sacramento worth $11.3 billion includes Silicon Valley. California has 10 members on the key four committees lead by Senator Feinstein (D-CA) on Defense Appropriations while Senator Boxer has just retired from Armed Services.
  3. Texas (per capita #20) has that famous Fort Worth aircraft factory $13.6 billion ($12.6 billion Lockheed Martin) that Kennedy was on the way to when he died. Johnson had the F-111 rebid twice before taking the bid from Boeing. House Speaker Wright came from that district when the Cold War ended. Texas has both House chairs of the four key military committees and eight members all told including Senator Cruz (R-TX) on Armed Services.
  4. Maryland (per capita #5) has $11.2 billion in four counties in the DC area, Lockheed Martin has $1.5 billion and John Hopkins University (foreign policy) has $0.7 billion, two House members on key military committees. Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) ranking Foreign Relations.
  5. Missouri (per capita #10) has $7.6 billion in St. Louis, Boeing $6.4 billion, where the F-15 was built. Dick Gephart represented that district when he ran for president in1988 and won the Iowa Caucus. Back then St. Louis was the top military spending per capita large metro area in America. Republican House members Hartzler and Graves are on Armed Services, Senator McCaskill (D-MO) on Armed Services, and Senator Blount (R-MO) on Defense Appropriations.
  6. District of Columbia (per capita #6 if it were a state) has $7.2 billion. No Senators or voting congressperson, no statehood, Georgetown University #1 for CIA internships.
  7. Alabama (per capita #4) has Madison County with Huntsville Space Center $7.1 billion. Alabama has seven members on the four key committees, including a Senator on each key committee. Senator Shelby (R-AL) Defense Appropriations is also the chair of the all powerful Senate Rules Committee.
  8. Hawaii (per capita #2) has $6.8 billion spent in Honolulu. Four members serve on the key committees including a Senator on each one. Courageous Senator Hirono (D-HI) voted on the key Health Care bill even though she has stage four kidney cancer.
  9. Massachusetts (per capita #17) Middlesex County has $6.1 billion (Raytheon $3.9 billion, MIT $1.6 billion). Senator Warren and Congresspersons Tsongas (D-MA) and Moulton all sit on Armed Services. Warren (D-MA) and Moulton (D-MA) have presidential ambitions.
  10. Pennsylvania (per capita #27) Philadelphia Counties $6.0 billion, two House Armed Services.
  11. Connecticut (per capita #9) has $5.6 billion for United Technologies in Fairfield and Hartford. Senator Blumenthal (D-CT) and Congressperson Courtney sit on Armed Services.
  12. Ohio (per capita #35) belt of Southwest Counties $5.5 billion, Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) ranking member on Banking, four House members, two each, on key military committees.
  13. Arizona (per capita #12) Puma County has $4.9 billion with Raytheon $4.2 billion of that. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) is chair of Armed Services with four House members on Armed Services.
  14. Washington (per capita #14) King County $4.7 billion (Boeing $4.1 billion) has Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) former Budget chair sitting on Defense Appropriations with two House members on Armed Services. Research for drones is done principally in Washington.
  15. North Carolina (per capita #26) Cumberland County area (Fayetteville, Fort Bragg) $4.6 billion, Senator Tillis (R-NC) Armed Services Committee, Jones (R-NC) on House Armed Services.
  16. Colorado (per capita #15) has $4.3 billion spent in El Paso County, home of the Air Force Academy. Only two House members (R-CO) on Armed Services.
  17. Kentucky (per capita #8) has $4.2 billion in Jefferson County (Louisville) where Humana has $3.8 billion. Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) on Defense Appropriations with Rogers on House Defense Appropriations. No wonder Leader cares so much about Health Care.
  18. Florida (per capita #24), Orange County (Orlando) $3.9 billion, Lockheed Martin $2.5 billion, Senator Nelson (D-FL) sits on Armed Services and is ranking member on Science (Space), one House Defense Appropriations, and two House Armed Services.
  19. Illinois (per capita #42) Cook Lake DuPage $3.7 billion, Senator Dick Durbin ranking member Armed Services only military committee.
  20. Georgia (per capita #19), Cobb Fulton Counties (Marietta, Atlanta suburb, Kennesaw State) $3.4 billion, Lockheed Martin $2.6 billion, long gone are the Senator Nunn days for Georgia, today only three people sit on the four key military committees. Senator Perdue (R-GA) sits on Armed Services, House has Graves on Defense Appropriation and Scott on Armed Services.
  21. Minnesota (per capita #32), Hennepin County area (Minneapolis) $4.0 billion, United Health Group $2.8 billion, McCollum (D-MN) on House Defense Appropriations, only military.
  22. New Jersey (per capita #36), Burlington County area $3.0 billion, $1.6 billion Lockheed Martin, Lobiando (R-NJ) Norcross (D-NJ) both on House Armed Services.
  23. New York (per capita #49), Long Island Counties $2.9 billion, Senator Gillibrand (D-NY) and two House members all three on Armed Services.
  24. Oklahoma (per capita #18), $2.7 billion in Oklahoma County area, Senator Inhofe (R-OK) sits on Armed Services, with three in the House: Cole on Defense Appropriations; Bridenstine and Russell on Armed Services.
  25. Mississippi (per capita #6), Jackson County (Pascagoula) $2.5 billion, HuntingtonIngalls $2.0 billion, Senator Cockran (R-MS) chairs Defense Appropriations, Senator Wicker (R-MS) on Armed Services, and House Kelly (R-MS) sits on Armed Services.
  1. Utah (per capita #22), Salt Lake area $2.2 billion, Bishop (R-UT) House Armed Services.
  2. Alaska (per capita #3) Anchorage Borough $2.0 billion, Senator Murkowski (R-AK) on Appropriations and Senator Sullivan (R-AK) on Armed Services, none on House Committees.
  3. Rhode Island (per capita #11), Five Counties $1.9 billion, Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) is the ranking member of Armed Services and also on Senate Defense Appropriations combines with the state’s only congressperson Langevin (D-RI) on House Armed Services.
  4. Michigan (per capita #48), Detroit Counties $1.8 billion, Senator Peters (D-MI) Armed Services.
  5. New Mexico (per capita #13), Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) $1.7 billion, Senators Udall (D-NM) Defense Appropriations, Senator Heinrich (D-NM) Armed Services (Emerging Threats ranking member), none from House.
  6. Louisiana (per capita #29), Orleans Parish area $1.7 billion, Abraham (R-LA) House Armed Services
  7. South Carolina (per capita #16), Charleston County $1.6 billion, Senator Graham on both Armed Services and Defense Appropriations, Wilson on House Armed Services.
  8. Indiana (per capita #33), Marion County $1.4 billion, Senator Donnelly (R-IN) & House Banks (R-IN) Armed Services, Visclosky (D-IN) ranking member House Defense Appropriations.
  9. Nebraska (per capita #31), Omaha area $1.3 billion, Fisher (R-NE) and Sasse (R-NE) on Senate Armed Services, Bacon (R-NE) House Armed Services.
  10. New Hampshire (per capita #25), Hillsborough Rockingham $1.3 billion, Senator Shaheen (D-NH) Armed Services, House Shea-Porter Armed Services.
  11. Nevada (per capita #28), Clark County $1.2 billion, Rosen (D-NV) House Armed Services.
  12. Kansas (per capita #21), Sedgwick (Wichita) $1.1 billion, Geary (Fort Riley) $1.1 billion, Boeing $0.3 billion, Raytheon $0.2 billion, Senator Moran (R-KS) Defense Appropriations.
  13. Maine (per capita #7), Sagadahoc County $1.1 billion, General Dynamics $1.1 billion, Senators Collins (R-ME) on Defense Appropriations and King (I-ME) on Armed Services, no House.
  14. Wisconsin (per capita #45), Winnebago County $1 billion, Oshkosh Truck $1 billion, Senator Baldwin (D-WI) on Defense Appropriations, Gallagher (R-WI) on House Armed Services.
  15. Arkansas (per capita #34), Pulaski County area $0.8 billion, Senator Cotton (R-AR) Armed Services, Womack (R-AR) House Defense Appropriations.
  16. Iowa (per capita #44), Linn County (Cedar Rapids) $0.8 billion, Senator Ernst (R-IA) chairs the Armed Services subcommittee on Threats.
  17. Oregon (per capita #50), Portland area $0.8 billion, Nobody on military committees.
  18. Tennessee (per capita #46), Coffee area $0.7 billion, Senator Alexander (R-TN) and Two Members on House Armed Services.
  19. North Dakota (per capita #30), Ward County $0.4 billion, Nobody on key military committees.
  20. Delaware (per capita #38), Kent County $0.4 billion, Nobody on key military committees
  21. Idaho (per capita #41), Elmore County area $0.4 billion, Nobody on key military committees.
  22. Montana (per capita #37), Cascade County $0.3 billion, Daines (R-MT) Tester (D-MT) Senate Defense Appropriations.
  23. South Dakota (per capita #39), Pennington County area $0.3 billion, Senator Rounds (R-SD) on Armed Services
  24. Wyoming (per capita #43), Laramie $0.3 billion, Cheney (R-WY) House Armed Services
  25. Vermont (per capita #40), Chittenden County area $0.2 billion, Senator Leahy (D-VT) Defense Appropriations
  26. West Virginia (per capita #47), Kanawha County $0.2 billion, Nobody on military committees

  

Summary

High military states lead 80 to 42 in holding key military committee assignments and have about the same share of military spending.  Many large Northern states have little or no representation on the key military committees, thinking the defense budget doesn’t affect their state.  Nothing could be further from the truth as huge amounts of research and capital are drained from manufacturing in the low military states during military buildups.  Likewise, upper Midwest industrial states prosper greatly when the military is lowered.  But this is the best kept secret around, as few peace studies programs study regional economics.  The low military half of America lost three times as many jobs as the high military states in the two years after 9-11-01. Construction was twice as strong in the industrial Midwest states three years after the Cold War ended in 1994. The “Hole in the Donut” nature of military spending is essential to understand how the military economy can boost some local economies while depleting other (mainly inland) regions, depleting all other manufacturing, and slowing the national economy.  Here is the link to that story:

https://www.academia.edu/5740273/MIDWEST_and_the_Military_3_pages_2005

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016,                                                                                                                    and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

Senate Power Republicans

Friday three Republican Senators stepped up to stop the massive tax cuts for the rich that would provide loss of health care to 16 million or more middle class Americans.  These heroes were uniquely powerful members of the key Armed Services and Defense Appropriations Committees.  Lesser Senators were intimidated by the power structure.  When half the discretionary budget goes to one agency, the Pentagon, members of those two Senate Committees are uniquely powerful in the whole Congress, including their counterparts in the same two House Committees.  Here is the rest of the story of how those four key committees and people from the high military spending states have come to dominate national politics like no one else.  Senate legend John McCain was chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee from the 13th ranked military state, Arizona.  Lisa Murkowski of third military ranked Alaska and Sue Collins of ninth military ranked Maine, are sixth and fifth ranked Republicans on the Senate Defense Appropriations Committee.  Armed Services can favor weapons systems, but ultimately Appropriations funds them.  Arguably, the 122 members of the House and Senate Armed Services and Defense Appropriations Committees are the most powerful in Congress, other than the overall Leadership like Speaker Ryan and Majority Leader McConnell.  Among the overall leadership, McConnell of seventh ranked Kentucky is second ranked Republican on Defense Appropriations and Senate Assistant Minority Leader Dick Durbin of lowly 43rd ranked military state Illinois is Ranking Member of the Senate Defense Appropriations Committee.

Power from the Military Down

Seventy two years after the epic hegemonic Second World War, all three branches of the American government are dominated by the military budget.  All presidents elected during the Cold War came from “above average military spending per capita” states.  Based on the 1984 data it looks like two term presidents come from states about twice the military average and one term presidents came from states about the military average.  Today that power level has subsided only slightly, but still about 75% of the cabinet (78% for Clinton), Supreme Court, and congressional leadership positions come from the half of the country that is high military spending by state.  And the military level tends to rise higher among parties in power and drop a little lower among parties out of power.  The general rule seems to be, the closer to the top, the more direct the military money connection.  The key is not your states total military spending, it is your states per capita military spending that indicates the mutual dependency between the politician and the military.  Democrats who tend to oppose military spending and wars, tend to do so only somewhat, often leaving claims about military spending out of their websites and campaign materials.  Even Obama who opposed the Iraq War had to triple troop levels in Afghanistan to compensate.  Bernie Sanders opposed wars easily but made no mention of cutting the military budget to fund his 14 budget proposals on the campaign website.  Jesse Jackson took 14 issues to the 1988 Democratic Convention, each had some accommodation except the 10% military freeze cut.  Democrats tend to cut weapons funding but not military payroll.  This kind of bowing to the military god goes on and on, leaving many in the peace movement angry at Democrats despite their 90% voting record in congress on small cuts in the military budget.

Women and the Military

When you look at the four key committee 122 military power positions in congress, 29 are filled by women, about 24% of the total, very close to their overall percentage in the congress.  But a closer look reveals the glass ceiling operates similar to the overall discrimination against those from low military states.  For example, when the Senate Republicans crafted health care bills in secret recently, no women participated.  When you break down the percentage of women on the big four committees from high military states versus low military states, 21% are from high military and 29% from low military states.  Military state Republicans are 13% women, while nonmilitary state Republicans are 17% women.  Military state Democrats are 31% women, low military state Democrats are 44% women.  Joni Ernst of Iowa overcame these obstacles to be a powerful woman Republican in the Senate, but it took her being a lifetime member of the Army Reserve or Guard rising to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel while five of the six states she served in were high military.  That’s how you overcome coming from the 46th ranked military state of Iowa to sit on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Military Economic Changes

The biggest change in military state rank from 2010 with the Democrats in power to 2015 with the Republicans in power was Mississippi rising 23 places from 29th to 6th place.  You can thank the Senate Appropriation Committee Chairman and Defense Appropriations Committee Chairman Republican Thad Cochran for that spectacular move.  The big move for a Democrat is Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed, who is ranking member of Armed Services and also sits on Defense Appropriations, so Rhode Island went up 16 places from 26th to 12th.  Maine had bipartisan teamwork going for it as it rose 14 places from 23rd to 9th.  Republican Senator Sue Collins is on Defense Appropriations while Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats) Senator Angus King is on Armed Services.  In the other direction, Wisconsin is a spectacular falling 23 places from 21st to 44th, where Senator Tammy Baldwin seeks to reverse that collapse of the popular Iraq war IUD proof truck sales from Wisconsin manufacturer “Oshkosh Truck”.  She has moved over from Budget to Defense Appropriations.  Typical Democrat, she is shy about the move with no mention on her website, as Madison Truax field will soon be adding F-35s.  She mentions Agriculture Appropriations on her website, her other subcommittee on Appropriations.  She wants more Wisconsin contracts without angering her liberal base as a member of the Progressive Caucus, a tough juggling act.  Health care has always been her top priority and a committee assignment, but coming from the Dairy State, Agriculture Appropriations is also very important for the upcoming 2018 re-election bid.

Summary

While the 22 high military states have equal population to the low military states, they have 70% of the military budget compared to 30% for the low military states.  The representation on the four key military committees in congress is also split about the same, 66% from high military and 34% from the low military states.  It has the appearance of all of them being proportionately representative of the military money.  When the White House threatens to punish Alaska for Murkowski’s vote on health care, the threat rings hollow because she not only sits on Defense Appropriations, but the other Senator from Alaska, Sullivan, sits on Armed Services, just like the situation in Maine with Sue Collins.  Alaska will continue it’s long standing position among the top three with Virginia and Hawaii long after the current President is gone.  Another powerful Senate tandem is Feinstein of California and Murray of Washington who represent drone production and research respectively, and both sit on the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee.  California military rank has risen 9 places from 26th to 17th from 2010 to 2015.  California has a total of ten members on the key four committees, while Washington has three.

For further reading, here is the detailed link to my very popular peer reviewed entry on the “Political Economy of War” in the SAGE Encyclopedia of War:

https://www.academia.edu/28849523/SAGE_POLITICAL_ECONOMY_OF_WAR_2016_6p

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st)                                         for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

Middle Year Empire Update

Making a big impression wherever I go has become standard fare for me now.  Resistance or passive resistance from some social science types has also become standard for me.  The social science view of the scientific method is quite different than the hard science view.  Fortunately the overall tide of acceptance has steadily gained strength, especially this year.  Thomas Kuhn, in his Structure of Scientific Revolutions would expect as much.

Liberal Arts Prejudice Against Professional Schools

The ivory tower concept can apply to all academic schools to some extent.  But it is especially true for the academics in the social sciences, who deeply resent the higher pay earned in professional schools like business, engineering, law and medicine.  When they have control of campus wide awards systems, they may systematically exclude academics from the professional schools from those awards.  As an undergraduate, I experienced this exclusion from the Phi Beta Kappa honors fraternity and as an engineer had to settle for the Phi Kappa Phi all university “equivalent” with a “separate but equal” feel to it, not unlike racial discrimination may have felt a century ago.  While blacks have made great strides, women still face glass ceilings in many academic settings.  A woman who got more votes than Obama in the 2008 primaries and more votes than Trump in the 2016 general election is still not president, because of the caucus system in the first case and the electoral college in the second case.  Recent attempts to eliminate memory of the first black presidency and his legacy show how far we still have to go in racial matters.

Peace and Justice

So after years of making presentations at the Peace and Justice Studies Association I am suddenly excluded in 2016 after supporting an “unpopular” woman presidential candidate on the list-serve and being attacked on the discussion list once for using the word “stupid” defending myself against a slur by “one of their own” against me, and another time by someone posting “refutations” to a small part of my statement in mild support of the Democrat running against their favored Socialist candidate.  A black woman who stood up for Hillary was later hounded out of the group.  This unethical retaliation through peer review is only possible because of the distinctive nature of my work, which makes blind evaluation not possible.  That some clique calls my work unpopular and tries to limit my expression is clearly refuted by the website reaction to my 36 releases a year.  Enthusiasm for my work is growing internationally and lately among Gary Gygax fantasy gamers, recently pushing me into the top 1% on academia.edu.

My point was that the Socialist refused to call for cutting defense to fund any of his dozen proposals, each specifically paid for with specific taxes on separate links of the official website and never with defense cuts.  The Socialist candidate was anti-war on his official website but never called for defense cuts specifically.  This is a common ruse among mainstream national candidates who do not want to lose any swing states with high military spending.   Sanders himself has said on television that he did not come up with the “Feel the Bern” slogan, although he wishes he had.  In that second case, large font quotes were taken from the Sanders independent website FeeltheBern mostly against war and some against military spending, twisting my words and falsely calling me inaccurate, refusing to admit this is tantamount to calling me a liar.  Gee, thanks.  Shouting against me and then saying you did not call me a liar.  Such courage.  Later this same board member openly put down my Nobel Peace Prize nomination rather than celebrating it like a decent human being would.

Methodology

Then a second person of the threesome putting down my Nobel nomination on the list-serve accuses me of not being methodological when I describe the process of creating my pinpoint accurate sixty year model of US manufacturing productivity.  That second person disagrees with my use of continental measuring of economic activity.  This assumes the social science process of creating questions first before surveying for their answer.  That is not the physical science method of observing first before you build your hypothesis.  Precision is not expected in the social sciences because it is generally only found in the physical sciences.  That difference changes everything, including what is considered the scientific method.  Professional schools rely on more traditional scientific methods but that does not make them non-methodological. This is another example of social science bias against professional schools.  It may be that crowds and human nature are viewed as unstable in the social sciences, but in the physical sciences more leads to more stability, just as in economics, moving from the individual to the family to business to the city to the state to the nation to the continent tends to reduce inaccuracies and add clarification of results, thanks to the law of large numbers.

Science and Society

In another instance, an academic organization dedicated to science and technology studies was busily talking about the differences between cultural and socialism versions of feminism when the topic turned to Russia suddenly and I pointed out some Russian history and the group suddenly disbanded and branded me as a Trump supporter which I am not.  At the next regular meeting of the group my hand was raised and for the first time not acknowledged before the group discussion ended after a presentation.  Once again Letters and Science discriminate against an interdisciplinary individual with practical professional real world experience.  Pure high minded academics don’t want to get too close to the dirty business of politics; they just want to talk about it.

Conference in Toronto

In a history of economics conference in Toronto one month ago, I raised a question in the general session that challenged the speaker’s thoughts on religion and was thereafter banned from further questions.  Most conferences and presentations welcome my questions, but some control freak moderators occasionally try to stifle me.  My own presentation was greeted with a lack of questions from a large group of 27 people.  This was the second time I’d tried to present the whole of my accurate economics theory with a similar result.  When I feature one aspect of my theory at a time, I get great receptiveness, but when I bite off more than they can chew, I get stony looks and cool receptiveness.  It was ironic in that one of the keynote speakers went on and on about how economics is not a science, a widespread belief among economic historians, that was well received.  But when I present my tightly accurate results of the science I’ve created about economics, it is a bridge to far for them, that’s not possible they are thinking.  When I break the ideas down to digestible chunks, they usually greet the material warmly.  Once again, Thomas Kuhn would not be surprised by any of this.  Toronto has a wonderful Quaker meeting house group, a Whole Foods that acts like a cafeteria at lunchtime, and a vibrant high tech industry with the Toronto newspaper leading the way.  Baked Lays potato chips are far more delicious in Toronto than the flat shaped and flavorless variety sold in the United States.

Fields of Knowledge Addenda

Main Ideas July 2017, the link to further reading on academia.edu for this press release, consists of seven pages:

The first three pages are 8 PowerPoint frames each on three main topics:

First is “Social Decay of Empire” and Stages of Empire,

Second is “Weather Wealth and Wars” or Global Warming Cycle

Third is “Dungeons and Dragons” Origins of Gary Gygax’s Work

Fourth is “Summary” Military DisEconomics thirteen key correlations

Fifth is “Reductio Ad Absurdum” about the New Macroeconomic Model

Sixth is the “Nine Areas of Mastery” needed to build the Reuschlein Model

Seventh is “10 Scientific Revolution Facts” by Thomas Kuhn

An eleventh point by Kuhn is that an outsider or newcomer like Reuschlein is usually the person who comes up with the new paradigm.  Here is the detailed link:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted and Given Odds for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-17
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

Math: Reductio Ad Absurdum

Economists tend to say “one the one hand, on the other hand.”  A lot of people get frustrated by this overly cautious social science way of doing things.  In the math world, there is the principle of reductio ad absurdum, that if you cannot disprove a theory after you’ve tried and tested it every way you can think of, it must be true.  Or more literally, if its opposite is shown to be false, then it is true.  (See my SUMMARY paper on my academia.edu website for several other key tests besides the model building.)  Reductio Ad Absurdum is the principle that has allowed me to develop Peace Economics.  Here are the 28 steps I followed to develop the Peace Economics model of manufacturing productivity over the last eighty years of the United States economy in the twentieth century.

General Characteristics of the Model

The idea that military spending is essentially economic waste has the following characteristics.  Models are more accurate the larger the economy and the longer the time period measured.  Military spending has a place holder function in the economy, as it acts like manufacturing by distributing money to the stakeholders.  But it is unlike manufacturing because no consumer product is being produced.  This interrupts the cycle of producing, testing against the marketplace, and refining and improving a product, and giving something to the consumer.  Alternatively, military spending looks like lost capital investment.  Adding the capital investment lost in military spending tends to reach a common total among leading Western economies.  Because military spending mimics manufacturing, it correlates positively in the regional models with economic growth and employment changes.  Actually this positive correlation is misleading, because it also lowers manufacturing when military spending increases, so the positive in high military spending states is offset by the negative in low military but high manufacturing states, with a net loss overall.  That makes military spending a transfer program like social safety-net programs, which stabilizes society but does not produce a net economic benefit.  The beneficiaries of this warfare state are usually upper middle class, unlike welfare state beneficiaries who are usually lower working class.

Creating Economic Model, 28 Steps

Each of these 28 steps are followed in capital letters by one or more of the nine fields of expertise that enabled me to develop Peace Economics, as listed in my RESUME paper or Curriculum Vitae on my academia.edu website.  Then at the bottom are the total mentions of each experience of each of the nine fields.  Each of these nine fields represents a minimum of at least three full time equivalent work years.

#1 Bar chart from Ruth Sivard found, military vs. manufacturing productivity.  POLITICS

PEACE ECONOMICS

#2 Graph the bar chart.  MATH WARGAMING

#3 Correlate raw data.  MATH BUSINESS

#4 Drop one country and correlate again. WARGAMING (VISION SENSE)

#5 Weighted average three continents and correlate r = -0.997.  ACCOUNTING

#6 After perfect cross continent proof, create long term model in leading economic country, US.  MATH (TRIANGULATE)

#7 Graph economic growth rate plus military spending.  ENGINEERING (MODELING)

#8 Recognize deficits offset military spending to explain World War II.  ACCOUNTING

#9 Recognize Kondratiev Wave explains fifties.  ENGINEERING POLITICS GLOBAL WARM

#10 Recognize manufacturing productivity explains better than economic growth. BUSINESS

#11 Look to establish parameters for long term US model.  ENGINEERING

#12 Use a variety of multi year moving averages to locate peaks and troughs over time.  MATH

#13 Use formula given by a friend when peak to trough and trough to peak matches that formula. POLITICS ENGINEERING GLOBAL WARMING

#14 Know that the answer to all differential equations is a sine wave.  MATH ENGINEERING

#15 Compute amplitude sine wave using peak and trough of economic growth.  ACCOUNTING

#16 Compute values each year and compare to actual values. ACCOUNTING ENGINEERING

#17 When annual comparisons show differences, compute running total of variations over time. ACCOUNTING SCIENCE

#18 Note that running total approaches zero periodically.  ACCOUNTING MATH ENGINEERING SCIENCE

#19 Consult Encyclopedia Britannica on economic cycles.  BUSINESS

#20 Note periodic perfection of running total error follows Juglar 8 to 10 year cycle.  BUSINESS

#21 Note that model drops to 7.0 lower rate during Great Depression.  ENGINEERING

#22 Note that model drops 3.7 lower rate during seventies Oil Crisis.  ENGINEERING

#23 Note that down periods perfect out at lower level every three years or so. BUSINESS

#24 Note that down periods just return to normal after about a decade. WARGAMING

#25 Note that starting period 1920 to 1922 requires using a three year average for the 1921 year ACCOUNTING ENGINEERING MATH

#26 Note that 1939 to 1947 data gap fills smoothly with no productivity gain for the four war years and average productivity assumed for the years 1940, 1941, and 1946.  ENGINEERING

#27 Note the linear reduction in total model volatility in six successive Juglar cycles from the twenties to the eighties.  ACCOUNTING SCIENCE

#28 Note model extended for another thirteen years with similar accuracy r = .999.  SCIENCE

Fields of Knowledge

Fields of knowledge used at each stage of these 28 development steps, ranked ordered by steps depending on that knowledge:

ENGINEERING 11, ACCOUNTING 8, MATH 7, BUSINESS 5, SCIENCE 4,

POLITICS 3, WARGAMING 3, GLOBAL WARMING 2, PEACE ECONOMICS 2

The top three, engineering, accounting, and math are mentioned 26 times, while the bottom six are mentioned only 19 times.  Clearly my engineering accounting and math skills are more important than economic skills to produce this model.  I had to drop out of a Ph.D. Economics program because they were taking me down the wrong path in spite of recognizing my major points.  I consider my engineering degree my most challenging degree, with accounting second, both far more difficult than an economics degree.  Politics was essential with an exposure to the social sciences and a broad liberal education coming from that pursuit, and with the two most crucial pieces of the puzzle coming from that exposure.

Conclusion

The proofs of this model are so many and so detailed, that it is impossible to imagine some other true model coming along to take its place.  The dead end nature of military economics, the lift from borrowing provided by deficits (in the economy of the nation whose currency is used as a reserve currency for two thirds of banking worldwide), the 54 year cycle and the nine year cycle are all conclusively embedded in the super accurate model created.  Take any of those elements out of the model, and you can continue the ambiguity of all other economic models of the past and present.  Or you can recognize that economics has just moved a step closer to being a real science, like the physical sciences.

Full eleven page explanation of this model including numbers used:  PEACE ECONOMICS

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted and Given Odds for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-17
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

Wargamer to Peace Economist

Looking back over my life, asking how I got to this point of nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, I have to consider my Avalon Hill wargame experience crucial.

Math and Games

I started with things like Erector sets, Lincoln logs, American bricks, and just blocks.  But there were four siblings and we played board games together a lot, like Careers, Monopoly, Risk, and many others.  I fell in love with two things early on, Games and Math.  Getting encyclopedias when I was seven, and later the Time Life book on Mathematics really got me going.  I loved the way that math book showed all 36 possible combinations of two dice, one in red and one in green.  Dice became the passion that united my two great interests, games and math.  I went on to play games on Democracy, Summit, and standards like Checkers, Chess, and Go.  You name it; I’d try it and be good at it.  But they were all too simple until my older brother and I discovered the Avalon Hill game Chancellorsville in 1961.  We also tried Tactic II, Gettysburg, and D-Day, and I never let him win.  So I needed a new challenge and along came the Avalon Hill General magazine in December 1964.  That was my freshman year moving from five frustrating years in the public schools to a Catholic High School.  That was the last semester in high school I had anything less than an A in math or science.  This was decades before the grade inflation of today, and I was top of my math classes the rest of the time in high school.  I found opponents wanted in the General from other high schools and UW Madison and for the next ten years spent about three times a week, fifteen hours a week, in wargames.  I was a master at the math and probabilities and also the rules, and these two, rules and math, were my edge.  I loved the maps and terrain and playing counters and movement just as well.  Soon I was inventing new rules, new games, and reinventing math before being taught it in the Trapezoidal Rule, the Pythagorean Theorem, and the Binomial Expansion Theorem.  Endless imagination and experimentation became the norms of my life.

Technician in Society

I became a great Nerd.  But humans are social animals, too, and I was a lonely boy who needed a social life.  Opponents Wanted ads and a genius wargamer 90 miles to my Southeast came to the rescue.  No one wrote more articles for wargaming magazines than Gary Gygax, inventing and imagining all the things you can do with wargames.  This local role model noticed me and invited me into his new wargaming club, the International Federation of Wargaming.  I started writing articles too, and inventing games, and starting a wargaming convention in Madison the year after his convention in Lake Geneva.  I attended the first seven GenCons from 1968 to 1974 inclusive, winning Waterloo and tying Afrika Corp the first two Avalon Hill wargames tournaments in 1973 and 1974..  Then I gave up wargaming and Gary agreed to sell my stuff on consignment the last time I saw him in 1974.  Gary welcomed me into his world and I made many trips to Lake Geneva and he came to my first wargames convention in Madison in June 1969.  I had learned the social skills of being a wargaming organizer in Madison, Wisconsin.  I learned many skills, math, games, rules, strategy, geography, military history, and organizing in those ten years of wargaming averaging 15 hours a week, three years of full time equivalent work.  That creative foundation laid the way forward for my fifteen year career in politics from 1978 to 1993 where I learned the issues, campaigning, lobbying, and creating legislation and debates, submitting the 1984 National Delegate Selection Plan for the Democratic Party of Oregon, and meeting at a high level Rainbow Coalition meeting with Jesse Jackson in Chicago in February 1987.  Everywhere I was getting great things done.  Politics is where I discovered Sivard’s work on military spending in 1983.  I discovered the Kondratiev Wave in 1981 from a close friend (Lyman G. Hill, XIII).  We were both in the YMCA Singles Association; where I was president in 1978 and group facilitator from 1978 to 1981.

Summary

These formative experiences combined the endless variety of games and the endless variety of politics into the necessary knowledges that made the Peace Economics breakthroughs possible.  In both macroeconomics and global warming theory these complex yet precise and elegant models will define how people see the coming century.  In both cases stubborn academic bureaucracies have resisted the compelling math of my discoveries.  But I have Thomas Kuhn on my side, knowing that new generations will adopt these basic discoveries and the resistant old order will eventually die off.  The new paradigms will revolutionize the stock market and predictions of the future as the naysayers and doubters are pushed to the side.  Sometime around the year 2025 the world will cool off for two or three years leading into a major war followed by global warming at a faster than ever pace and we will be prepared to mitigate these circumstances or we will blunder ahead ignorant of my discoveries.  The choice is up to each of us individually.  Collectively, if we learn, I will get my rewards.  Today my term “Peace Economics” is routinely marginalized by peace groups as just a large sum of money, seldom if ever considered a major driving force of lost opportunity in the economy, by groups like the Berlin Peace Congress last year and Code Pink this year.  Please stop using my terminology for misleading and understated purposes.  Nations and peoples rise or fall with their choice of military spending levels.

Here is the suit pocket sized booklet for the twenty-fifth anniversary of Peace Economics:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Here are a few key pages about the climate cycle ending in 2025, warned about above:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._WWW_course_9p._2014

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-2017

contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com for more info www.realeconomy.com

Great Gygax, Maybe Britain

I took a recent fifteen day trip to Oklahoma City, Cambridge, Oxford, and London.  On the first leg of the tour I presented on Gary Gygax and the birth of the role playing games industry.  “Dungeons and Dragons” was analyzed as business history for the Economic and Business History Society.  Then I went to Britain to the two oldest universities in the English speaking world, Cambridge founded in 1209, and Oxford founded sometime between 1096 and 1167.  The universities and people of England were usually great, but not so much some of the bus drivers, ticket agents, and Heathrow airport staff, hence the title.

Oklahoma City

When you are in Oklahoma City, the place to visit is the Cowboy Museum.  The end of the first hallway was a statue of Lincoln, while Will Rogers and John Wayne figured prominently.  Thankfully, the guide waited until the end of the tour to mention how he approved of Trump.  The tour group bypassed a room of Native American greats that I later enjoyed on my free time.  The highlight of my first conference workshop was a guy from the Denmark explaining the history of transportation in Denmark.  No 56,000 pound rigs in the small territory of that country, they were all large and fat but short and in one piece.  My presentation on Gary Gygax was detailed, largely from my personal acquaintance in the eight years before 1974, the year he invented Dungeons and Dragons.  The moderator of the session, of all things, happened to graduate from the same high school I attended, Madison Edgewood.  About a dozen in the room, three had played Dungeons and Dragons, and about seven had heard of the game played by millions around the world.  One person afterwards showed keen interest in my Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Peace Economics.  The conference keynote speaker kept casting aspersions about some New Deal programs, yet admitted that Roosevelt had stimulated the economy with his programs in the thirties, and that forties war stimulus was very much overrated.

Cambridge

Arriving in Heathrow Airport, I immediately took the Norwich bus to Cambridge.  If I had gone the whole route, I would have gone to East Anglia, where the temperature of the world is calculated each year.  As it is I settled for Cambridge, the home of Stephen Hawking, born the same day of the year as Robert Reuschlein and Elvis Presley.  No wonder I’m a scientist who can win dance contests.

At Cambridge I met a professor who wears a turban to shake others up and watches the whole MSNBC lineup each night to keep up with the American impeachment pre-game shows.  I also met a Mathematics Ethics professor and his grad student who came to the seminar on numbers and statistics for public policy.  The grad student was frustrated that two history professors presented but no one from a statistics background.  I told the Math prof that I had perfected economics by adding the secret ingredients of military spending and temperature change.  He thoughtfully agreed that that made sense to him.

Oxford

Oxford was the highlight of the trip.  Staying at St. Hugh’s I was fortunate to see a fox causing quite a stir in the English garden my room overlooked.  I heard a great noise from the crows and went to the window to see what the matter was. The ducks were unperturbed a long way from the fox, but a flock of seagulls flew away as I watched.  The noisy crows moved closer and eventually the fox left.  The conference on American war dissent decades ago went well and made me wish I’d submitted a paper on Kennedy as two others had done.  Oxford’s Rothermere American Institute sponsored the conference.  Christopher Hurley and I had a lot to agree about Kennedy as JFK resisted the establishment on national security policy.  Oxford had good people everywhere.  But the bus drivers were terrible.  One drove past us as I tried to flag it down.  Another gave me bad advice to take the X90 instead of the Tube, forcing me to take an extra local ride to get to Notting Hill in London from Oxford.  Then another driver motioned me away as he stopped two slots away from his regular stop.  So I waited for him to move into the correct spot only to see him drive away completely past the empty spot that had been full before.

London

I arrived in London on Saturday night June 3 and settled in at our Notting Hill Hotel.  A colleague suggested going downtown, but I thought I needed rest after a long day’s trip.  That was fortunate, I might have been nearby or worse when the terrorists attacked London Bridge at 10pm and a popular nearby market.  Other than that, Sadiq Khan, Moslem mayor of London, was right to call this the safest city in the world.  That was at the East end of downtown, and I spent the next two days near the Parliament in the West end.  Someone had left a cigar at the foot of the Churchill statue in the park.  I saw the Ecuadorian embassy where Julian Assange was staying.  He has the same odds as Professor Robert Reuschlein of winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year according to sports betting expert Jim Murphy.  I entertained the man at the front desk until I decided not to wait any more for a reply.  Later I secured and used a three month Chelsea library card, and saw the plaque where George Orwell had lived from 1903 to 1950 about three blocks from where I was staying.  I also visited the Library of London founded in part by Charles Dickens and donations from famous authors, often with amazing notes in the books donated.  When I visited the War Resisters International office no one was there, but I had a good talk with someone downstairs from them at Hausmann’s radical book store.  When I left England I had a rainbow to see (it was a Chelsea morning) and when I arrived home I saw another rainbow.  Good omens both.  But the Heathrow Delta flight required boarding by taking a bus to the plane and climbing stairs like you do in a much smaller airport.  Heathrow has a poor reputation and you can see why.  The ticket agents on the first day had a map on the electronic poster showing various bus routes in Southern England, but the agents could neither give you a map, nor explain well where and when buses were going.  The individual routes had schedules for each one only, and you were expected to watch the arrival and departure board for more information.  Don’t expect the agents to be helpful.  The Bobbies, on the other hand, were always useful and helpful, even the ones guarding 10 Downing Street with Uzis.  The Investors Daily conference on the last day before leaving was very good at the start, then lost steam.  I met two nice people there.  Two others left the table when I questioned one speaker’s assumption that Theresa May would remain the Prime Minister.  Labor was surging in the polls, but the conservative investment community was in denial.  One speaker clearly preferred WTO corporate oligarchy to anything more democratic like the EU.

Here are the two presentations of first Gygax to EBHS, then War Economy to the upcoming HES:

https://www.academia.edu/33402923/History_of_Gary_Gygax_and_War_Economy_May_June_2017_8_p

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Odds on Nobel Peace Prize

2017 Nobel Peace Prize Betting Odds by Jim Murphy

I took the trouble to analyze the analysis by Jim Murphy of the odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year.  The cash award for last year was $923,179.20 but also includes a gold medal auctioned off by previous winners for from $765,002 to $4.7 million in recent auctions.  According to Jim Murphy’s figures, on a spread sheet and totaled to 100%, of the 76 people included in his list plus the chance of someone not on the list or no one at all being rewarded this year, (the 77th) entry on the list needed to include all possibilities.  With those adjustments, the chance of Professor Robert Reuschlein winning is 1 out of 157 according to Jim Murphy.  The top ten favorites have a 50% chance of being picked.  The twenty two people in the middle of the pack tied with Robert Reuschlein collectively have a 13% chance of being picked as Murphy sees it.  The monetary value of the cash prize times the chance of getting it would be about $6000 for those in the middle of the pack like Reuschlein.  One could go to someone like Lloyd’s of London and cash in by selling one’s right to the Prize this year perhaps.  Reuschlein would not do so because he believes his chances are much higher than Murphy thinks, having made the round of 32 last year.  The first two of these press releases are my contemporary notices proving that finding (using Jim Murphy’s figure of 32) of close consideration last year:

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/02/06/response-from-oslo-norway/

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/nobel-peace-prize-watch/

This last press release is my final pitch to the Norwegians to choose me:  https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/10/05/letter-to-nobel-committee/

 

The Favorites (Top 10, Top 35)

The top ten are fairly well known names, Medea Benjamin of Code Pink, The White Helmets of Syria, Edward Snowden who exposed government mass surveillance, David Swanson of World Can’t Wait, Johan Galtung of the Friends Service Committee book on nukes, Richard Falk noted author, Jan Oberg journalist, Ethan Gutmann author, Chelsea Manning soldier who exposed civilian atrocities in US wars, and Daniel Ellsberg of the Pentagon Papers.  Then there are twenty five more before the middle of the pack tie, including Chicago favorite Kathy Kelly, Benjamin Ferencz co-author of the book “Planethood” which has five references in the index to Reuschlein’s work from the book “Peace Economics”, and the choice of none of the above or no winner, considered a 1% possibility.

 

The Middle of the Pack Tie (22 people)

Professor Robert Reuschlein has been rated an equal choice with Pope Francis, the leader of the free world, Angela Merkel of Germany who has helped Syrian refugees, and Julian Assange of Wikileaks, who was recently visited by Robert Reuschlein in London at the Ecuadorian embassy there.  Then there is perennial author Dr. Gene Sharp who has documented the many peaceful change successes over the twentieth century and finally the September 11th Families for a Peaceful Tomorrow.

 

The Long Shots (Bottom 20)

It is notable that Madison Wisconsin local favorite Professor Robert Reuschlein is considered by Jim Murphy as more likely to win than the following:  John Kerry, despite his negotiation of the Iran Accord, Wikileaks, rock star Rihanna, Native American hero Leonard Peltier, and of course the very unlikely Donald Trump, and the slightly less unlikely Vladimir Putin, leaders of the no longer quite so super powers.

 

Conclusion

Little known Professor Robert Reuschlein has developed a game changing theory of military spending as a lost economic opportunity, high levels of which actually weakens powers over the decades.  He has also revolutionized the science of long term temperature change, showing amazing precision where others find only partially reliable world models.  Together these developments, once recognized, could vastly improve the sciences of economics, global warming, and war forecasting, where only sloppiness currently exists.  He compares in the Jim Murphy analysis well with many other people of note.  Reuschlein’s recent conference summaries of key aspects of his work:

https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt._29_slide_5_p._2017

Reuschlein is open to local news coverage and academic citations of his work wherever possible.

 

Here is the full article by Jim Murphy, a sports betting analyst for the last 25 years:

http://www.sportsbettingexperts.com/2017-nobel-peace-prize-betting-odds/

 

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 (top 32) and 2017, Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Congratulations Frank Goetz

I won an award which lead to an article which lead to an amazing academic reaction unfolding this month.  Here is the story:

Special Recognition Award 2016

Thanks to the Frank Goetz persistent determination I finally relented and entered his Kellogg Briandt Treaty (law against war) contest, due in April 2016.  But I was shooting for the stars trying to get a reply out of very busy presidential campaigns.  I didn’t realize the entry required a reply from the person I sent the letter to.  Only after sending in the 800 word letter to Frank Goetz did I learn about the reply contingency.  I tried everybody, Hillary, Bernie, Trump, even Jill Stein and the Libertarians.  No reply.  I sent the text out as another of my press releases on April 23, 2016 because to use ExpertClick.com you have to have 100% new content, so it needed to be posted before widespread dissemination.  Because I did not get a reply, I thought my chances were over.  Then I got an invitation from Frank Goetz to accept a Special Recognition Award for the letter, which I accepted.  That event happened on August 23, 2016, the eighty-eighth anniversary of the Treaty.  The West Suburban Faith Based Peace Coalition (of Chicago) awarded me this special recognition award by printing the letter along with the first second and third place winners of the contest in the award booklet.  This booklet was handed to everyone at the banquet to celebrate the event and raise money for the ongoing cause.  I was lucky to sit at the same table with the top staff person for Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, whose son won second place.  I then went on to give a mind blowing five minute speech about empire and the American condition.  I’m used to blowing minds of those who have not heard me before; the research was equally mind blowing to me as I developed it in 1985 and 1986 for the first book called “Peace Economics”.  I learned to emphasize the empire economics aspects of the theory over the course of many years.  A frequent listener to my presentations suggests the empire economics theme is the best way to present my extensive material.

Between August and October 2016

I had been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize earlier in the year 2016 with obvious interest showing from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, but this accomplishment did not set the academic world on fire.  I definitely catch a lot of short term attention telling people about that nomination, but then life moves on. What started the academic world on fire was the two entries in the “SAGE Encyclopedia of War, a Social Sciences Perspective” by Paul Joseph, who worked tirelessly helping me perfect those entries.  I was told that the Encyclopedia would go out in October when final editing was approved for my entries in May.  So with the onset of October 1, I put my final copy of these entries out on line in my academia.edu account.  I had come to expect a 10% download rate for my articles overall.  Immediately my 120 (140 today) academic followers took notice and began downloading the article on record pace, especially the “Political Economy of War” article which had a 70% initial download rate per viewing, now 53% after eight months.  Then on October 15th I posted the “Military Keynesianism” article to a download rate of 35%.  “Military Keynesianism” then got a recommendation from a Nigerian Accounting Professor, former Finance Minister of the country, with over one million views on his academia.edu account.  That got me a 1.1 rating on academia.edu in that category.  Then I upgraded my academia.edu account and found out that I’m in the top 1% there on a 12 month basis (and have been ever since).  With the encyclopedia listings, suddenly three times the usual number of international people have been viewing and downloading my academia papers ever since.  After all this on the encyclopedia, Stephen Sachs asked to republish the piece “Dear Future US President” which he called a fine piece on 10-16-16.  This was finally published in the Winter issue of Nonviolent Change Journal p.298-299, online at nonviolentchange.org in February 2017.

Between January and April 2017

After my presentation at the Telos Institute at NYU, at the end of the conference the keynoter approached me humble and speechless as I offered a few words of advice.  His speech could easily have given me another 10 footnotes to my own, but I gave him the big picture.  In March I went to Lake Geneva for GaryCon and found out that I am a legend of wargaming in the “Dungeons and Dragons” world of Gary Gygax followers.  Some suggest they are a better base of support than academics.  Then in April my Geospatial Summit speech was filmed by the ABC affiliate in Madison, WKOW 27, for a future program on “local voices” in the global warming debate.  I continue to do shows on the Mitch Henck radio program for over a year and a half now, about twice a month. He and his audience have grown to love and admire “Dr. Peace.”

Very Special May 2017

On May 8th I finally got around to posting the article “Dear Future US President” published in Nonviolent Change Journal, which posting I do for all peer reviewed material on academia.edu.  Because I had the material out there in press release and blog form about a year ago, I usually wait for a new press release that fits with the academia.edu paper.  I got tired of waiting and had sent out new postings to the followers list of about 140 now for about a half year since October.  So I just posted it with the press release about the Special Recognition Award as the second article in the same “paper” posting.  Then I got the most unexpected huge reaction, people love the piece.  The first week ending 5-14-17 has seen an unprecedented MORE DOWNLOADS (44) THAN VIEWS (39).  Top 2% (by month) by 5-20-17 for the first time an individual paper of mine has ranked that high.  Now it is #1 in downloads of all my 69 papers in just two weeks, on 5-21-17, with a total of 59 downloads while views increased to 64.  Downloads for this paper are still at a personal record 92% of views.  Another first is the three unsolicited messages almost immediately from three people after the paper posting.  So congratulations Frank Goetz for goading me and lauding me, helping me boost my reputation to record international levels with an assist by Stephen Sachs the editor of Nonviolent Change Journal!  Now even the US people are taking more notice, although some of the new US postings are from foreigners working or attending US universities.  The exponential curve I’ve been waiting a long time for may finally be arriving.  It’s been quite a year.  New ideas need new people to notice and finally the word is spreading and growing around the world.  It used to be that people just read a few of my postings to get a feel for me, now it increasing looks like patterns of thinking are pursued in the choice of postings to read.  That tells me that people are beginning to go deeper in their thinking about me and my work.  In other words, they are beginning to catch on.

Here are the two writings creating all this political excitement around the world:

https://www.academia.edu/32905059/DEAR_FUTURE_US_PRESIDENT_Spring_2016_3_pages

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute,                         Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017,                                Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Game Master Gygax History

Stretching the Imagination

The Role Playing Games Industry (Dungeons and Dragons) emerged from war gaming and the discipline and imagination of Gary Gygax (1938-2008) of Lake Geneva Wisconsin.  Born in 1938, Gary grew up fascinated with fantasy books.  In 1958 he discovered Avalon Hill (AH) war games, and when they introduced a fanzine in 1964, the Avalon Hill General, Gary dominated the early writers and contributors to that monthly magazine.  In 1966, Gygax founded the International Federation of Wargaming (IFW), and encouraged fellow legend of wargaming Robert Reuschlein (later nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2016) to join that group that became the largest wargaming group of its time. Reuschlein (age 16), and Gygax (age 28), became fascinated with each other as each developed local groups in the two Wisconsin cities of Madison and Lake Geneva.  They played an epic “play by mail” game of “Battle of the Bulge” in the Fall of 1966 which Reuschlein won, and in 2017 Gary’s son Luke said he hated to lose. “Battle of the Bulge” was the favorite game of Reuschlein and also sixties leading journalist CBS news anchor Walter Cronkite.  Together with the likes of Len Lakofka, Bill Hoyer, and John Bobek, these five dominated the new club from the greater Chicago area.  Gary Gygax developed the first successful wargaming convention in 1968, GenCon, starting with 100 wargamers, now featuring 50,000 attendees in Indianapolis each year.  Reuschlein’s smaller Madison Wargaming Convention started with 24 in 1969 including Gary Gygax, peaked in 1972 at 98, and then crashed the next year to 24 under new management.  Reuschlein was a math and rules wizard with a record of 19-1 as top rated player in the IFW but he stuck narrowly with the AH games genre, while Gary was involved in all things wargaming spending twice as much time per week as Reuschlein and may have written ten times as many articles.  Gary stretched his imagination with land and naval miniatures and eventually castles in a sandbox.  While both Reuschlein and Gygax developed their own games, again Gary was many times more prolific in that as well.  The Reuschlein Gygax bond ended in 1974 as Reuschlein gave up wargaming after winning the first two GenCon AH tournaments and moving to the West Coast after college graduation.  Gary offered to put my games collection up for sale at GenCon as he went on that year to develop “Dungeons and Dragons” and Reuschlein later entered politics 1978 to 1993 in the State of Oregon.  Reuschlein invests in convertible bonds completely unaware his friend Gary Gygax needs money to start the D & D business. Gary’s interest in miniatures, fantasy, and the development of rules for individual combat in the game “Chainmail” lead directly into the development of “Dungeons and Dragons”.  Stretching the imagination with fantasy history and wargaming, detailing the rules with the precision of a claims adjuster, and endless writing experience, lead to the first popular role playing game.

Business of Dungeons and Dragons

In December 1973 Gary forms a partnership named Tactical Studies Rules (TSR) to produce “Dungeons and Dragons”.  One thousand games were purchased in January 1974 and sold that first year.  Doubling every year, within a few years sales were 2 or 3 million a year by 1978-79 and the game became a national obsession.  Gary faced several common issues of entrepreneurs almost immediately.  Starting out he is undercapitalized.  Having lost his day job as an insurance underwriter in Chicago in October 1970, he is forced to turn to shoe repair for a living in 1971. Still in December 1973 he has $1000 of his own, another $1000 from his best gaming friend Don Kaye, and another guy in town, Brian Blume, who is not a gamer.  Starting out with just one third ownership is a big red flag in the small business world.  When you do not have a majority ownership it’s easy to lose control of your company.  The second red flag is the absence of an agreement to buy out owners who want out.  Sometimes this is combined with insurance on the partners so that if one dies, the insurance pays off the spouse of the deceased.  Unfortunately for Gary Gygax both of these issues come back to haunt him.  He is in fairly good shape with his best friend and himself owning a majority.  Then tragedy strikes, as his best friend partner dies in January of the second year, 1975.  Then Don Kaye’s widow sells to Brian Blume’s father Melvin as he outbids Gary.  Now Gary is in the precarious position of minority ownership to the Blumes.  In the summer of 1983, Kevin Blume, Brian’s brother assumes control of the company after Gary’s divorce and Gary is relegated to an entertainment subsidiary and goes to Hollywood.  In late 1984 Gary comes home to oust Kevin for poor performance and seize control of the company in March 1985 using long held stock options.  Then he hires a professional manager Lorraine Williams to run the company who seizes control ousting Gygax after seven months on October 22, 1985.  For a second time he makes the mistake of trusting strangers as his chosen business manager Lorraine Williams buys majority control from the Blumes.

After Tactical Studies Rules

When Gary Gygax took his talents elsewhere, he went on to develop other role playing games, but the spark of imagination that lead to Dungeons and Dragons opened up a whole new field of role playing games with levels of achievement, and eventually much of today’s $100 billion video games industry owes him for this development.  Where would “Grand Theft Auto” and the many war fighting video games be without the basic structure of applied imagination individual role playing games begun by Gary Gygax in 1974?  All these subsequent developments come from the rich imagination of the medieval ages of Western Civilization.  Anthropology and fantasy like JRR Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings”, combined with things like “Star Trek” left the door wide open for Gary Gygax to earn the label #1 Nerd of all time in Sync magazine’s 2002 poll.  A lifetime Camels smoker, Gary Gygax died at the early age of 69 in 2008.  Steven Colbert paid tribute to him on his passing.

Summary

Had I known my friend Gary Gygax needed money in December 1973 I might have invested in his business.  Had that happened, I would probably have ended up rich, but as a second fiddle.  I would not have blazed my own path in Oregon politics that lead to the inventions of my macroeconomics and global warming theories that lead to my recent nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize.  The world does not always beat a path to the door of the person who develops a better mousetrap, it takes marketing.  My work is only gradually getting recognized thanks to my doctorate in 2009, one year after Gary died.  I regret not seeing him in those last years, especially after I moved back to Wisconsin in 1993.  I had experience with others becoming rich and famous around me, such as “Clan of the Cave Bear” author Jean Auel, who I met and shared campground experiences with in Longbow Campground.  That was the annual retreat place of the Oregon Mensa group in the Oregon Cascades just East of Salem.  So although recognition is slow so far, at least it is not posthumous as in the case of Copernicus.  I do not regret blazing my own path and creating two theories each of which is about an order of magnitude improvement on the fields of macroeconomics long term accuracy and global warming temperature forecasting.  That would not have happened in the shadow of Gary Gygax, much as I love him.  His oldest son told me how he would talk about me a lot, so I underestimated his friendship and esteem for me.  I feared he would think of me as another high school classmate that tries to get in with the rich man, rather than an old friend.  One of many mistakes I have made in life.

More on the Reuschlein Gygax story is here in these past releases and findings on the internet:

https://www.academia.edu/32134382/WARGAMER_File_1964-2017_9_pages.pdf

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Telos Institute Lessons

Lessons of Three Great Conferences,  By Professor Robert Reuschlein

Asymmetrical Warfare, Telos Institute, NYU, January 14-15, 2017  

I had great success with the presentation, “Goal of Terrorists: Raising the Cost to Society” at the Telos Institute in New York University.  Asymmetric Warfare raises the cost to society of warfare.  Those in the military industrial complex believe that warfare can enhance themselves and their society.  This belief led to the Iraq War.  Those employing asymmetric warfare believe they can punish the military society’s population enough to make them give up.  This was the strategy that won the Vietnam War.  The asymmetric warrior (aka “terrorist”) believes a militaristic society will implode when enough pressure is put on them.  These so-called terrorists are even more right than they realize.  The eight years of the Reagan Military Buildup tripled the national debt (quadrupling if you add in the 4 Bush years).  The seven years of the second Bush military buildup wars led to the Great Recession, thanks to the surge in military spending in fiscal 2008 and overheated real estate markets in the corruption prone high military states.  Blowback was immediate and internal and escalates over time.  This is exactly what Osama Bin Laden wanted out of the Western response to his provocations, saying in a 2005 speech:  “So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy.”

In my empire economics speech I outlined the true cost of militarization on America, depleting our capital and research resources leading to economic and social decay, including high crime.  Empire stagnation includes the stagnation of the political process in America.  Militarization leads to the direct depletion of the manufacturing sector much faster than the more obvious and visible trade treaty losses of factories.  In the decade after 2001 terrorism has quadrupled.  Goading us into attack has been a goal of the terrorists.  I gave the keynote speaker a copy of my 24 page booklet after his opening speech; he was not impressed but politely took it.  After hearing my speech he keeps reading it while others spoke.  At the end of the conference, he approached me in the cloakroom speechless with a puppy dog look in his eyes, so I said a few words to him.  His speech could have been used for a dozen footnotes to my speech, but he knew I had the big picture down cold.  Telos Institute is a great place that welcomes new ideas, so a colleague has been encouraging me to present there for some time.  That colleague was right on, they loved me there and I fit right in.

 

Ethics and Mental Health Conference, Viterbo U., La Crosse, WI, April 6-8, 2017

The best presentation here was “Gun Deaths and Public Health: What is the Mental Health Connection?” Steve Miles, University of Minnesota Medical School.  Dr. Miles major finding is that gun ownership is proportional to gun deaths.  Handgun suicides are ten times as likely for a kid from a gun household.  You are 4.5 times more likely to be shot when carrying a gun.  Gun owners are eight times more likely to threaten murder. Gun households have four times the homicide rate, seven times the suicide rate, and sixteen times the accidental gun death rate.

This compares to my finding that murder rates and crime rates are proportional to the military spending of a developed country.  The inference is that a militarized society is more likely to murder, all kinds of murder, but suicides are not proportional to military spending.  Perhaps the more militarized portions of a military society are conversant with guns and inclined to own guns.  Are these the people with military training we are talking about?  I do not know that particular evidence, but it does seem likely that those familiar with gun use would be inclined to either join or be from the military.  Military training has advanced since the fifties into a very effective trainer of killers.  Past wars had as many as 78% of soldiers who never fired guns, and in one case a dozen musket rounds were found in a soldiers gun, so reluctant to kill other people that person was.  That changed in US military training in the fifties.

More detail at this link:

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

 

Geospatial Summit, University of Wisconsin, Madison, April 26, 2017

My presentation was videotaped by WKOW TV for a climate voices unit Greg Jeschke plans to produce in the near future.  My talk was titled “How Climate Change trends impact humans, the economy, and politics.”  Temperature studies by industrial engineers have long shown that human performance is reduced at above normal temperatures, reducing productivity on hot days.  There are at least three other sets of evidence that show this effect on economics:  geography, stock market, and US history.  The major war cycle also comes from economic cycles that come from global warming cycles.  Sharp cooling trends of two or three years duration often precede major wars, and volcanoes can trigger this process.  Economic differences expand in the high growth half of the cycle, leading to peak wealth, a new world order, and a major war about three years into the next slow half cycle.  That economic change at the end of the growth cycle may encourage politicians to look for a way to distract the public from the slowing economy with a war.

This talk explored explanations of these various linkages with temperature and climate change, showing that the three types of cycles are all linked and start with the climate changes.  Environmental determinism is in my opinion a baseless pejorative narrative to paint a rational theory as something it is not, as racist and colonialist.  The proof of this is that human performance, economic history, and the stock market are all confirming the cool improves and heat stifles narrative.  You have to ignore those three other proofs to come up with a racist and colonialist narrative that only sounds plausible in one school of thought, imperialism, not in an interdisciplinary context.  Triangulation from at least three different directions is the standard of proof I seek in all my work on these two great theories of economics and global warming.

 

Summary

These three issues are the main issues in my research.  Empire Economics is my best presentation and a version of that was used at Telos.  With military spending the prime cause, empires decay from a lack of productivity coming from the military resources.  That in turn leads to the social decay of empires, included murder rates, health problems, and lack of social mobility.  In America it is obvious that many celebrities are now sons or daughters of other celebrities, as America has traded places in the last generation or so with Europe in terms of being a class based society. Crime and corruption is strongly correlated with military spending both internationally and within the American states, including the poor mortgage practices leading up to the Great Recession.  Crime is the easily identified exemplar of the social decay of empire concept.  The right wing thinks moral decay is bringing down America, but my work supports the opposite theory, that the self inflicted wound of wasting too much military spending at the expense of manufacturing and construction economic growth sectors causes the long term rise in crime, poor health, stagnant politics, and class divergence in America.

But the key to perfecting the long term 60 year US economic model is the 54 year Kondratiev cycle.  And the key to proving the existence of that cycle is linking up the three versions of the cycle, the natural cycle, the economic cycle, and the political war cycle.  I’ve always sensed it was absurd to consider these three cycles separately.  I’m convinced that the order of those cycles is natural, economic, then political, both by the logic of the linking mechanisms and the slightly diminishing accuracy of the proving phenomena in my 56 events chart.  As always, I’m looking for multiple proofs of concept along multidisciplinary lines of seeing past the silos of isolated thinking into the broader concept of looking at events from multiple points of view to grasp the correct essence of it all.

Link to the actual Telos Institute and Geospatial Summit powerpoint slides are here:

https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt._29_slide_5_p._2017

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

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