bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the category “History of Empire”

Killing Democracy By Trump

Overall

The president continues to his own version of “The World of by and for Trump” as his 16,000 lies create the fiction of the “greatest president ever”.  His first lie was to swear to uphold the constitution, as he pretends to be a king, like the other authoritarian rulers who are his best buddies in Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Philippines, and North Korea.  He and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pursue every chance to stack the courts with right wing activist judges and reward the rich and powerful at the expense of other 99%.  After spending trillions bailing out every imaginable group, Moscow Mitch now wants to bankrupt the states just to rob public employees of their pensions, often taken right out of employee paychecks earned over the decades of an underpaid public career in health care, policing, firefighting, and teaching.

Trump’s World                                                                                         

The president promised we would be so tired of winning that we would beg him to stop.  We are so tired of losing we wish he would quit and just take over for the dying Rush Limbaugh.  He thinks of the government as his and his alone to abuse and corrupt as he directs the military to stay in Trump hotels and blockades Qatar until they give his son-in-law Jared a mortgage on the alligator 666 Fifth Avenue.  He lifts legal restrictions on a key Russian oligarch that helped him steal the 2016 election and lifts restrictions on the Chinese so that they will invest in his Indonesia operations.  Dozens of his staff campaign and cabinet appointees have gone to jail in perhaps the most corrupt administration ever.  Loyalty is Trump’s main value as competence goes by the wayside.  Temporary appointments give Trump the loyalty and lawlessness he wants bypassing congressional confirmation.

Bullying

The president is a great con artist as he perfects the art of kiss up and kick down, intimidating rivals, the press, and the congress with threats to oppose everyone who does not follow his foolish ways and praise him without question.  He keeps the congress in line with his threat to support Trump supporters against all incumbents who waiver even slightly in their support of him, leaving Romney out of a Senate Republican phone call for daring to vote for impeachment.  Bill Maher who gave Obama one million dollars for his re-election would gladly give one million to have Romney instead of Trump as president.

COVID 19

Trump was so determined to prioritize the economy over everything else that he put off for two crucial months action against the Coronavirus putting America in last place fighting the virus compared to other hot spot countries like China, Italy, and Spain.  His refusal to let people off an infected cruise ship shows his fetish with keeping the numbers down on disease cases.  He kept refusing to get testing started seriously for the same corrupt reason, trying to keep his case numbers down rather than fighting the disease by testing tracing and quarantining.  Image over substance as he gaslights his way through every strategic mistake he makes, constantly trying to downplay the virus.  He says the states should take the lead in the fight, then has FEMA confiscate shipments of personal protective equipment going to the states, especially if they are blue states which are constantly shortchanged while red states are oversupplied.  He is constantly seeking to reward states that voted for him and punish states that voted against him regardless of the law and judicial fairness.  He wants the states to bid against FEMA driving up prices so the private sector can make a killing at the expense of government, a clear case of corporate socialism.  Then he invokes the Defense Production Act (he should have been using all along months ago) to absolve pork processing plants of any liability for forcing employees to almost certainly catch the disease, valuing corporate profits over human life.  Thousands have died thanks to his corrupt inaction, and many health care workers have died due to his refusal to use the Defense Production Act to marshal enough personal protective gear and swabs for testing.

Militarism and Corruption

The conservative movement that has been coopted by militarism has continued to follow the unconditional surrender terms of World War II, resorting to an extremism that continues to trample traditional conservative values like local control, freedom, and small business.  Increasingly becoming the party of big military and big business, they value power and control and unitary executive power over congressional power.  Relying on voter suppression they have adopted Southern values over Northern values.  In Wisconsin they forced voters to risk catching coronavirus to vote, hoping liberals would fear the disease more than Trump followers, giving the election to conservatives.  Both the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the United States Supreme Court blocked local courts and the governor from postponing the election like most states did, valuing power over health.  In the tradition of Bush v Gore, Citizens United, and Shelby County they have seized power, suppressed voting, and opened unlimited campaign spending by billionaires, valuing money over people.  Once apposed to a so-called activist Warren Supreme Court, they have become an activist conservative court with very little thought to precedent and justice.  Increasingly, one side has no hope of honest justice, just political hackmen.  Mitch McConnell blocked everything he could from the black president and Trump has reversed every Obama decision regardless of merit.  Abraham Lincoln would not recognize his political party today.

Summary

Vladimir Putin has gotten exactly the chaos he has long sought in American politics, as strong leaders have increasingly bypassed congressional committees and congressional oversight.  In many ways Trump has not so much changed the Republican Party as revealed it for the racism, xenophobia, and authoritarianism of the regular Fox News viewer.  Whether you call it militarism empire or fascism, it operates much the same.  With the extreme inequality and lack of social mobility, America has finally become more of a class-based society than Europe.  With 40% of Americans unable to afford an unexpected $400 bill, the fragility of American society will be increasingly on display in the coming months.  Empire at the breaking point.

Nature of Military Empire Social Decay:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, April 30), “Killing Democracy by Trump” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Killing-Democracy-By-Trump,2020230398.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 207 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

How Did USA Get This Way?

Overall

High Military Spending plateau’s the growth of an empire society leading to social decay and political rigidity.  How did we go from FDR and the Greatest Generation to Trump?  How did we get this way?

Washington’s World

George Washington went home to Mount Vernon after winning the War of Independence from Britain and turned down the offer to become king.  Some thought he was the greatest man in the world to resist such power and control.  His farewell address warned us against foreign entanglements and standing armies in peacetime.  He knew that excessive militarism led to the loss of civil liberties.  This vision lasted about one hundred fifty years 1787-1945.

Turning Point

After becoming the largest power in the world at the beginning of the Twentieth Century, America was reluctant to reverse the policies Washington warned about in his farewell address.  No one challenged his tradition of limiting the presidency to two terms.  The most important office in democracy was considered the status of US citizen, a nation of equals.  It took a Civil War to turn former slaves into citizens, and a World War to give the vote to women.    Nevertheless, after three years of submarine warfare, America finally joined the Great War in Europe in 1917.  Wilson created the League of Nations to prevent another such war, but France had sought an unduly harsh peace treaty against Germany, out of resentment from the Prussian humiliation in 1871 and exhaustion from the carnage of the World War.  America’s banks helped fund the German reparations to the financial dismay of American farmers.  When the top 20% of America owned an automobile and the roaring twenties came to a halt in 1927 and 1928, Hoover sought to resort to Tariffs to protect the farmers.  Tariffs had provided 80% of revenues to the young power on the way up, protecting Northern manufacturers from superior British products to the resentment of the South.  Now as the new number one power higher Tariffs were so greatly resented by Europeans it led to the trade war known as the Great Depression.  Resentments from the Great War led Italy and German to turn to fascism and war again.

New Dominance

Winning World War Two established America as the new world hegemon, a kinder and gentler hegemon that established the United Nations to share power and stop future wars.  In 1947 the National Security Act was adopted changing everything.  Washington’s fears about foreign entanglements were replaced by the United Nations and NATO, and his fears about a standing army in peacetime were replaced by the National Security Act.  Because of these rejections of George Washington’s traditions, both the War Department and the Joint Chiefs of Staff opposed the 1947 National Security Act.  The President and Secretary of State pushed it through.  The pentagon wanted to continue the American tradition of a token army between wars and volunteers to flesh out the army during wars.  The 1947 National Security Act changed the defensive Department of War into the offensive Department of Defense.  Note the beginning of newspeak as warned about by George Orwell’s final book 1984.  The 1947 Act also established the Central Intelligence Agency which immediately established Operation Mockingbird to control the domestic press.  Eisenhower thought the idea of keeping some of the world wartime machinery around was a good idea, and the standing army became the standard fare of the Cold War between Truman and Stalin.  America was becoming the empire society, a slightly kinder and gentler version of the British Empire it had once defeated in 1781.  The General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) went into effect January 1, 1948 reversing the trade war of the Great Depression leading to the postwar prosperity of Europe and America.

Military Corruption

Eisenhower soon became aware of the corruption of the military industrial complex.  His speeches of 1953 and 1961 were very similar.  The fierce scramble of local support for “defense” money was obvious and shocking to him.  What he had done with the 1947 Act became largely irreversible with his doubling of the military budget from pre-Korea to post Korea.  Even the Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu in the Art of War (5th Century BC) recognized the disastrous economics of war, yet because of the 1936 Keynesian economic theory, the notion that government spending can stimulate the economy was falsely extended to include military spending.  This notion continues with all modern US presidents, as evidence to the contrary is dismissed or ignored by the so-called mainstream.  The much closer and systematic evaluation of Peace Economics (1986) establishes that the local economics of military spending is offset by the lack of output from the so-called military factory and the international lowering of capital investment by the size of each nation’s military budget as shown by Ruth Leger Sivard in 1981 and 1983.  Further evidence shows that manufacturing jobs are reduced by military buildups and increased by military builddowns.  Politics have focused on the positive local effect and ignored the negative national effect of military spending.  Mainstream economists wrongly believe in both in a general and non-specific way, accepting the military Keynesianism locally and immediately, while considering the negative impact as vaguely in the future without a mechanism to connect the two seemingly contradictory beliefs.  Peace Economics has clarified every aspect of this relationship with one study after another.  These key off the model that uses the federal deficit to represent the Keynesian lift to the economy and military sequestering of capital investment for non-economic growth purposes (the military economic drag).  Both use the military spending, one (the deficit) for local stimulus and the other (military spending) for LOST (diverted) capital and economic growth.  Manufacturing suffers when the military goes up and prospers when the military goes down.  Details here:  https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages.

Extremism in Politics

The Spirit Level (2010) documents many factors that correlate better to national military spending levels than to income inequality levels.  Their date confirms my thesis that social factors decay with prolonged high levels of military spending (my definition of empire).  Empire leads to economic stagnation leading to high crime, prisoners, overweight, diabetes, mental health, teen births, infant mortality, and low social mobility. The economic stagnation of military spending makes people desperate and susceptible to the divide and conquer tactics of racism, ethnocentrism, and xenophobia.  The local stimulus (at the unrecognized expense of manufacturing areas) becomes a powerful tool for legislative power and control over local economic growth and other legislators.  Government spending has long been used to reward friends and punish enemies, but military spending is flexibly and uniquely and unequally distributed among the states to a level of power not met by any other government program.  Creating enemies is essential to this process.  Over time this divide has been exploited by the more military oriented political party.  Over time the Republican party has become more authoritative and less inclined to winks nods and dog whistles and more overt as shown by President Trump.  Thanks to the Reagan policies of low taxes on the rich and media opinions not required to be balanced (“fairness doctrine”) the rich have left the other 99% behind (no wage growth for 40 years) while unlimited propaganda is now possible through Fox News and Rush Limbaugh.  Using bullying techniques Trump has moved steadily closer to a complete lack of accountability and closer to dictatorship with over 16,000 lies documented by the New York Times and Washington Post.  Increasingly he resembles Caligula, the one truly crazy Roman emperor.  Rome went from republic to dictatorship and America is on that same path.

Self-Defeating Evolutionary Stages of Military Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, April 21), “How Did USA Get This Way?” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/How-Did-USA-Get-This-Way,2020230398.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 249 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

COVID 19 and Real Economy

Overall

Circumstances make certain great events more likely in certain periods of time.  Health and making a livelihood are basic to all human life in the modern world, and they have always been related to each other.  The pandemic crisis has made this very self-evident.  Even the timing of major wars, major pandemics, and major economic changes are cyclic in nature and cyclic with natural changes.

Economic Connection

South Korea had the first case of coronavirus the same January day as the United States.  But while they actively tested and isolated, Trump used wishful thinking to downplay the risks for two months, thinking he was protecting the economy when in fact he was endangering the economy.  While the Koreans used the World Health Organization test, the president’s America First economic strategy failed to develop a US test for crucial lost weeks.  Then in empire-like classic control orientation, the Center for Disease Control would not let the private sector and states use alternate tests extensively.  Then with the health care system facing overload, the president refused to compel production by the private sector and refused to do national purchasing, instead leaving it up to the states.  This led to bidding up the cost as 50 states and even the federal FEMA each outbid each other creating windfall profits for the business sector.  A grifter himself, the president was comfortable with this taking advantage by his political allies.  This is like the Republican approach of letting the drug companies charge much more in America than in other countries.  This lets greed win out over need, creating confusion as some states can’t compete.  Trump favors socialism for businesses, not for employees.  Trump then blames state and local governments for lack of planning for this unplanned pandemic, rather than helping those businesses and their employees like every other country in the developed world.

Long Cycle Connection

The 54-year natural economic and war cycle creates a certain atmosphere of tensions in certain periods as the cycle evolves over time.  Thus civil rights peak events happen around the lessor war at the economic growth rate peak of the cycle. Then as the growth phase ends around maximum wealth accumulation at the end of the high growth period, we see major wars and pandemic peaks.  Thus the Spanish flu kills tens of millions in the 1918 World War period, starting in Kansas and spread to Europe by American troops sent over there to fight the war.  Then the Hong Kong flu in 1968 is carried to the United States by troops returning from the Vietnam War.  There is not a real great war occurring now in 2020 but the trade war started in 2019 has weakened China to the point of originating the COVID 19 pandemic currently ravaging the world.  Globalization and plane travel have made easy transmission of this disease worldwide affecting all major trading countries.

Smoking Connection

Underlying physical weaknesses are leading to death in five percent of pandemic cases worldwide.  One US nurse admits that only 20% of those on respirators ever get off them. US death rate is 2.4%. Emphysema, Asthma, Diabetes, immune compromised, etc. are the reasons often given, but smoking seems to be a major cause, especially for younger deaths.  Vaping scars the lungs of the young, leaving them especially vulnerable to a disease known to do the same.  Italians smoke a lot and look at that disaster.

War Connection

Wars develop in periods of political and economic stress.  While wars usually separate countries, a common enemy can bring nations together.  Global warming and the current pandemic have done the latter.  The Defense Production Act of 1950 Korean War era is finally now being used to fight the pandemic as Trump tries to claim wartime presidency to aid in his 2020 reelection.  Carnage in the hospitals resembles the carnage of the battlefield in war.  Just as war is a life and death issue, so too is the pandemic.  Just as empire can lead to decline, the result does not have to be war, a wiser hegemon can pursue global unity instead with all that power.  The military organization can contribute to field hospitals and supplies for the pandemic fight.

Red States At Peril

On the March 31st Rachel Maddow Show it was reported that the following mostly deep red states had no statewide stay-at-home order:  Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Arkansas.  Only Nevada is a swing state carried by Hillary Clinton, the rest are solid Trump states.  Further she reported the following states had partial stay at home orders:  Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming.  These are also deeply red Trump states except for the two swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania, with Texas and Georgia also moving in the swing state direction in 2018.  All these 17 states will likely see explosive growth in COVID 19 cases and deaths as their medical care is overloaded.  These seventeen states include a majority of seven of the eleven former Confederate States of America states and former border slave state Missouri.  Trump may have unwittingly targeted his own followers.  April 1 the governors of Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi relented and finally imposed restrictions to enhance social distancing.

Malignant Narcissism

President Trump has been evaluated to be a malignant narcissistic personality by psychologist friends of Al Franken.  The Donald believes he can lie (16,000 in first three years) and gaslight his way through any situation, he is reactive daily and never plans things out well, thinking the future will take care of itself, dominating the news and leaving his opponent out of the debate.  He punishes his enemies and rewards his friends continuously as his personal needs are paramount over everything else.  He counts on creating his own alternate reality.  True reality will not go away, despite the best of his ability to create illusions. Trump acts in crazy ways like the Roman emperor Caligula, the one emperor considered crazy, hence this odd behavior may be a result of advanced stages of empire decline, the social decay that accompanies the economic stagnation that results from large portions of an economy devoted to military control of the world around them instead of producing economic goods for the general population.

Extremism

The evolutionary pattern of a society entering a deep state of empire completely suggests that political extremism is a long-term result.  Eisenhower discovered to his dismay that a large peacetime army drove military location politics to push for more military regardless of the nationwide need.  This process eventually evolved into a partisan choice, and the one party blindly interested in economic growth regardless of consequences became identified with the military budget so much that the mutual cooptation of military spending took hold of congress and the presidency.  Even the party primarily interested in other than military spending had their presidential candidates coopted by the need to carry at least some of the high military spending states to win the presidency.  The power of allocating the military budget then so dominated the political process that options narrowed, and political choices became more extreme.  From Reagan to Trump as more democratic protections were removed, extremism kept growing until Trump came along and used extremism to achieve office.  Now America is highly polarized.

Summary

Blind loyalty to serving one half of the political spectrum at the expense of the other half helped elect Trump, the most extreme president in modern times, jeopardizing the balanced approach to governance generally followed by presidents since George Washington.  Washington voluntarily turned down kingship and set the pattern of presidents limiting themselves to two four-year terms and avoiding foreign entanglements.  Now America has the standing army Washington feared and avoided and leads a worldwide financial and military empire, seemingly losing our way.  Once we opposed empire to gain our independence, now we impose the Washington Consensus worldwide.

Booklet Included in Peace Economics Video:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, April 4), “COVID 19 and Real Economy” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/COVID-19-and-Real-Economy,2020229811.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as their following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 249 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

Evidences of Compromise

Overall

Circumstances between candidates and the military take many forms.  Statistically the correlation between military spending and political power is powerful and direct.  Nothing is more easily distributed among states than the military budget, with key committees and leaders holding great power based on their ability to allocate military funds.  This is why presidential candidates usually flourish thanks to the military in their home states and districts, which among other things jobs in military industries pay about one third more than comparable jobs in American industry, and foreign policy experience ranks very high in presidential candidate success.  Hence Joe Biden is running away with the Democratic nomination.

 

Campaign Compromised?

Long before the current campaign all elected U.S. presidents during the Cold war (46 years) came from above average per capita military spending home states, and congressional leaders, cabinet members, and Supreme Court Justices are about 80% from high military spending states.  So it is a good question whether military support compromises a political candidate.  Bernie Sanders has more donations from the active duty military than any other presidential candidate (Rolling Stone).  But it may not be so simple in his case, because 47% of the military are opposed to Trump as an erratic commander in chief, and Bernie’s one major accomplishment is a Veterans overhaul bill when he was chair of the Senate Veterans Committee.  Bernie opposition to the Iraq War has become a general opposition to Asian land wars in general.  The B-35 base in Burlington, Vermont is an example of Sanders having a typical liberal bias against wars but in favor of home state military spending.  Sanders straddled this issue in 2016 with about a dozen proposals on his official campaign website all funded by taxes and none funded by defense cuts.  In 2020 he has been willing to cut military spending, so he has improved.

 

Perfect Campaign Undermined

While the field of Democrats was much larger Sanders and Warren jointly took on all comers in an early summer debate defending Medicare for all, both looking very good.  But when Warren was leading in the polls in the Fall, the misogyny of the Bernie Bros came out when these online trolls took her down calling her an elitist.  Perhaps it all was inevitable that name familiarity from prior presidential campaigns led to Biden and Sanders becoming the final two.  Biden’s foreign affairs “expertise” looks like a comfortable fit for a president who is really an emperor.  Our Madison Wisconsin office of the Warren campaign led the nation in phone calls, and one late rally of Warren looked almost exclusively Women and girls on C-SPAN.  One C-SPAN call-in one morning started out with several Warren calls in a row.  Warren ran a campaign against corruption and her wealth tax was adopted by Sanders.  Last summer in Madison the Democratic Party table at the popular farmer market Warren had five times the votes of any other candidate in the race.  Even James Carville did not understand what went wrong with her campaign, as he praised her many attributes.

 

Great Cycle Virus

Again and again press references suggest similarities between the so-called Spanish flu of 1918 and this year’s coronavirus, 102 years later.  My scientific broadening of Kondratiev’s long economic cycle theory to include the war and natural cycles suggests every other 54-year cycle is geographically similar, alternating from Southern Hemisphere led to Northern Hemisphere led and back again.  The two great flu viruses both occur in Southern/Ocean led cycles, with ocean dominance affecting coastal areas more than interior continental areas.  The double cycle is 108 years with expected major wars in 1916 and 2024.  Thus the 108-year cycle was two years late last century and four years early this century.  Furthermore, this event has turned out to be a recession, following Clement Juglar’s investment cycle of mostly 8 to 10 years and occasionally 7 to 11 years.  Since three-year inventory economic cycles have disappeared in the U.S. after 1980, the Juglar cycle has dominated with recessions in 1982, 1991, 2000, 2009, and now 2020.  That’s four nine-year cycles in a row until this 11-year cycle.  Sorry social scientists but numbers and patterns are important and not so easily dismissed as many do.

 

Summary

Many things go into the evidence of compromise, but the basics are simple:  Military spending as a drag on the manufacturing economy is clear in my many studies.  Bias in favor of military spending states economy candidates in politics is very strong and explains much of politics.  Good candidates don’t always win, but name familiarity from prior runs often dominates.  And just as health issues correlate inversely with high military spending countries and states, the natural long cycle has many components like economics, war, civil rights, and now a major health issue.

 

Main Ideas Summary:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7_pages

 

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, March 21), “Evidences of Compromise” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Evidences-of-Compromise,2020229326.aspx

 

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as their following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 223 (estimated).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

Recession Elects Trump 2016

Overall

Trump was elected by a manufacturing recession that impacted the so-called “Blue Wall” of the upper Midwest manufacturing states.  This recession was a result of the military buildup in Obama’s last year sharply reversing the military budget cuts of the 2012-2015 period.  Because military and manufacturing are opposites in economic growth and jobs and regional impact this happened.  Because Obama Clinton and Carter all believed in military Keynesianism, all three mistakenly began military buildups in their last years thinking that could help the Democratic ticket, but instead leading to recessions in the election year that elected three Republicans.  Ohio Michigan Wisconsin and Indiana and are four of the top five manufacturing states per capita with Pennsylvania not far behind those four.  Correlation on this (details below), R=-.94 (2012-2016).

Election 2020

The next election is already showing the coming manufacturing recession from Trump’s trade wars, as GM shuts down Cruz production in Youngstown Ohio and Trump greatly accelerated the small Obama military buildup by about $100 billion dollars.  The temporary economic relief due to the 2018 tax cuts has been more than offset by these events.  The outsider benefit to Trump of these events in 2016 will hurt Trump now that he is the insider and will be held responsible for the manufacturing recession in the upper Midwest states.  Trump could even lose Ohio, the most manufacturing oriented of the eight traditional largest states.

Year    Millions         Change          Billions $

Sept    Mfg Jobs       In Jobs          Military Change

2009   11.591

2010   11.563            -.028

2011   11.769            .206

2012   11.954            .185                -46.55

2013   12.056            .102                -25.09

2014   12.226             .170                -29.79             R= -.94 (2012-2016)

2015   12.350            .124                -13.89

2016   12.344            -.006               +15.17

Military Buildup Manufacture Recession Elects Trump

2017   12.467            .123

2018   12.733            .266    Tax Cut Stimulus Stops in January 2019

2019   12.850            .117    first 4 months    .093            Tariffs     last 8 months   .024

Manufacturing Jobs In Recent Years

Midwest and the Military full story:

https://www.academia.edu/5740273/MIDWEST_and_the_Military_3_pages_2005

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, October 10), “Recession Elects Trump 2016” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Recession-Elects-Trump 2016,2019195749.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info: www.realeconomy.com

 

Logic of the Peace Economy

Press Conference on the Nobel Peace Prize

Noon CDT on Friday October 11th, 2019.

Sequoya Library, 4340 Tokay Blvd Madison, WI 53711

 

Overall

Carefully restructuring Keynes (1936) with the military economy findings of Ruth Sivard (1981) and Reuschlein (1986) and the cyclical findings of Nicolai Kondratiev (1926) and Clement Juglar (1858) leads to a new scientific and accurate model of macroeconomics, including a precision model of 77 years in the United States economy.  That constitutes a finding that military spending is lost capital investment to any nation’s economy.  That finding forces a re-examination of how best to defend the nation state.  A 2% annual loss of economic growth (or capital investment) over a 36-year period can cut a nation’s economy in half.  Thus in about a third of a century, excessive military spending can severely weaken a nation.  This demands a reevaluation of national strategy, to keep a skeletal amount of military spending during long periods of peace between major wars.  This alone represents a giant step towards world peace, because the world will have less war damage when it has lower military spending, and less temptation to engage in minor wars when the military option is recognized for its true cost.  Less military means less domestic military economy pressure to justify higher levels of the military budget by use or to meet political power play demands; i.e. less military, less wars, less tension, less political corruption.

Other Major Spinoffs of the Military Economy

Cutting military spending has significant long-term national security benefits, but also avoids a lot of evils of empire.  Many similarities exist among dictatorships, Third World countries, Medievalism, Fascism, and Empire.  Thus many evil ramifications result from militarism and particularly measured by the high level of military spending.  For example, Rome started out as a Republic and ended up a dictatorship, especially as the military was professionalized becoming increasing expensive over time.  America is undergoing a similar pattern, as the Republic and congress is increasingly dominated by the foreign policy of the military presidency.  Sports have become more militarized as Romans took to watching gladiators and Americans have taken to American football with its heavy militaristic parallels throughout the game and its heavy physical toll on the players.  Crime and corruption are strongest in the strongholds of militarism and the military economy domestically and internationally compared to other advanced democracies.  Power and control become dominant values instead of the value of achievement.  Social mobility dies out as the stagnation of wage growth becomes the norm in the slow growth economy.  Whether it is Hollywood, the media, or the political structure, more and more positions seem more inherited than earned.  Obesity, mental health, longevity, teenage births and infant mortality all suffer as anxiety steadily increases over time.

Long Cycle Dominates Planet

The Kondratiev Wave is essential to the long-term precision United States economic model of 77 years.  That model uses a 54-year cycle modelled by a sine wave with an amplitude of 3% of the economy, further confirmed by the 8-10 year Juglar cycle found seven times in the model.  Further the 160-year global temperature show a 55-year moving average has three straight lines before 1910, from 1910 to 1973, and after 1973.  Economic growth shrinks with 27-year heat waves and increases with 27-year cool waves and wars peak at the end of the growth cycle as national economic disparities and wealth have maximized.  The hot cycle ends with major droughts and the (relative) cool cycle begins with major floods.  Hurricanes follow the cycle but on a regional basis, best focused on major cities.  Linear forecasts based on the Greenhouse Effect would be greatly improved by recognizing this cycle.

Listing of 17 major Peace Economics findings:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, October 10), “Logic of the Peace Economy” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Logic-of-the-Peace-Economy,2019195272.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (more than double pace of last year: 127 Strong Web Looks in 12 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 11th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Academia Paper Views Ranked

Overall These Academia.edu 80 listed papers included some power-points, collections, and chapters.  The first one is an overall findings summary, followed by the leading two in downloads, weather cycle, and then followed in order by greatest number of viewings.  One sentence introductions are given above each link.

Paper 1 gives the 17 great findings that led to all the other new material (61 views):

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Paper 2 shows the fifty states economic and political power of the military industrial complex (188 views):

https://www.academia.edu/34337629/MILITARY_COMPLETE_GEOGRAPHY_2017_9_pages_176_downloads-_1_

Paper 3 shows the evolution of Gary Gygax and wargames into D&D and Reuschlein War Theory (254 views):

History of Gary Gygax and War Economy, May June 2017, 8 p.(136 downloads-#2)

Paper 4 shows new climate theory and cycle evidence (311 views):

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

Paper 5 shows 13 correlations that define my military, empire, and cycle research (356 views):

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p_13

Paper 6 shows how militarized our police forces have become and economic racial impact (248 views):

https://www.academia.edu/9028202/MILITARIZED_TERROR_POLICING_2_p._8-17-14

Paper 7 shows how empire economic and politics evolve over time (170 views).

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Paper 8 shows how a 55 year moving average defines the temperature chart (168 views).

https://www.academia.edu/4090273/TEMPERATURE_CYCLE_PROOF_1910-1973-2025_1_p._2013

Paper 9 shows wargame connections between Reuschlein & Gygax, the D&D inventor (157 views).

https://www.academia.edu/32134382/WARGAMER_File_1964-2017_9_pages.pdf

Paper 10 shows the close connection between murder and military rates nationally (142 views).

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

Paper 11 shows the chart and print version of my 40 minute video on Peace Economics (139 views).

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Paper 12 shows 56 numerical examples of the 54 year cycle (137 views):

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yearCycle_3p._13

Paper 13 shows the 7-20-13 ppt used at the World Future Society (124 views):

https://www.academia.edu/4044447/CLIMATE_CYCLE_Weather_Wealth_Wars_18ppt._3p._2013

Paper 14shows the Political Economy listing in the SAGE Encyclopedia of War (120 views):

https://www.academia.edu/28849523/SAGE_POLITICAL_ECONOMY_OF_WAR_2016_6p

Paper 15 shows my entire 2009 doctoral dissertation (112 Views): https://www.academia.edu/606645/DOCTORAL_DISSERTATION_Peace_economics_and_program_change_in_undergraduate_peace_studies_programs_246_p._09

Paper 16 shows my award winning letter to a Chicago area peace group (109 views):

https://www.academia.edu/32905059/DEAR_FUTURE_US_PRESIDENT_Spring_2016_3_pages

Paper 17 shows partial ppt for each of my main focal points (96v):

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7_pages

Paper 18 shows the ppt presentation of my science of economics model in Toronto (95v):

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt_3p._2014

Paper 19 shows the 11 press releases on the military economy issue (94v):

https://www.academia.edu/31717739/MILITARY_ECONOMY_Direct_11_2013-2016_15_p

Paper 20 shows the pathway to the Nobel Prize and follows evidence of their interest (93v):

https://www.academia.edu/31102462/BIOGRAPHY_for_Nobel_Peace_Prize_2013-2017_23_p

Paper 21 shows the cultural connection between war empire and sports violence (88v):

https://www.academia.edu/25679437/FOOTBALL_Baseball_and_Empire_3p._14ppt_5-24-2016

Paper 22 shows the pattern of social decay that springs from military empire (85v):

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Paper 23 shows synopsis and related info about a Peace Economics class (82v):

https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages_2015

Paper 24 shows ppt and related material that leads to my main points (77v):

https://www.academia.edu/36620474/Good_Concepts_May_2018_Update_Ten_Pages

Paper 25 shows the nine fields that compose my interdisciplinary background (71v):

https://www.academia.edu/15878982/RESUME_2016

Paper 26 shows the key documentary pages of the original Peace Economics book (66v):

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

Paper 27 shows my number one viewed press release (64v):

https://www.academia.edu/12755188/DOMESTIC_Military_Effects_list_of_10_1_p._2014

Paper 28 shows the contrast between my theory and that of most peace studies (62v):

https://www.academia.edu/5645092/COMPARISON_Peace_Economics_vs._Peace_Studies_1p.14

Paper 29 shows my second paper at Telos Institute (61v):

https://www.academia.edu/36069836/_Constitutional_Implications_of_War_February_2018_3p

Paper 30 shows several of the best press releases on the topic of Empire (60v).

https://www.academia.edu/28545758/EMPIRE_Explains_America_Best_2013-2016_13p

Paper 31 is very popular overseas for some reason (58v):

https://www.academia.edu/11020728/RANKISM_and_DIGNITY_Robert_Fuller_Concept_1_p._2006

Paper 32 shows how Southern Business Professors can be won over to Peace Economics (58v):

https://www.academia.edu/4044446/EMPIRE_ECONOMICS_Peer_Review_AWARD_12ppt.4p_13-14

Paper 33 from the unpublished work in progress book (57v):

https://www.academia.edu/6044919/KONDRATIEV_WAVE_5_p._WWW_1997_2014

Paper 34 from 4 years of Sunday Afternoons with “Teachings of Jesus” bibles and concordances (55v).

https://www.academia.edu/9979093/JESUS_and_Empire_12-4-05_4_p._2005

Paper 35 summary papers about murder crime and violence in an empire society (53v):

https://www.academia.edu/27198787/VIOLENT_Society_in_the_United_States_seven_papers_2014-16

Paper 36 how military states candidates dominate America (53v).

https://www.academia.edu/20604100/POLITICAL_Military_Presidency_1999_7p

Paper 37 hundred year details of how precision peace economics plays out (50v).

https://www.academia.edu/4044532/HISTORY_Presidents_Military_Economy_1910-2009_3p._2013

Paper 38 from SAGE Encyclopedia of War and recommended by academic with 1 million views (47v):

https://www.academia.edu/29175791/SAGE_Military_Keynesianism_October_12_2016_5_p

Paper 39 Reuschlein curve and other ways to manage military budget with peace economics (45v):

https://www.academia.edu/4475604/DEFENSE_STRATEGY_Peace_Economics_1986-2015_8_p._

Paper 40 both key theories in one place (45v):

https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt._29_slide_5_p._2017

Paper 41 puts the “con” in conservative, how Dems were robbed two elections in a row (45v).

https://www.academia.edu/30092060/ELECTION_Stealing_2004_and_2000_24_pages_2004.doc

Paper 42 press releases that give technical support to peace economics (44v):

https://www.academia.edu/23034796/TECHNICAL_Peace_Economics_8p._2014-2016

Paper 43 how a militarized culture demands militarized sports (43v).

https://www.academia.edu/5392466/FOOTBALL_Baseball_and_Empire_2_p._2013

Paper 44 civilizations rise and fall with long term temperature changes (42v).

https://www.academia.edu/4485586/CIVILIZATION_Changes_with_Climate_4p._RE_1999

Paper 45 collected works on the path to the peace prize (40v):

https://www.academia.edu/30423568/NOBEL_PEACE_PRIZE_Collected_Works_2014-2016_18p._40views

Paper 46 describes key evidence about peace economics (40v).

https://www.academia.edu/23431506/PROOF_PEACE_ECONOMICS_Summary_1_p._7-12-14

Paper 47 why military hated Kennedy enough to kill him (39v).

https://www.academia.edu/5184189/KENNEDY_50th_Anniversary_Tribute_12ppt._2_p._2013

Paper 48 collection of press releases on the topic (39v).

https://www.academia.edu/30864393/Weather_Wealth_And_Wars_2013-2016_25_p

Paper 49 even interest rates are proportional to military spending in the late nineties (39v).

https://www.academia.edu/29770996/HIGH_INTEREST_Releases_2013-2014_12p._11_2016

Paper 50 economists have given up on the search for a science (38v).

https://www.academia.edu/30657234/Nobel_Economics_Prize_Perversion_2016_8_p

Paper 51 semester long three credit class synopsis plus (38v).

https://www.academia.edu/5415281/CLASS_Empire_Economics_and_Climate_31_classdays_2_p._13

Paper 52 how the Peace Prize could lead to Physics and Economics Prizes, first ever threesome (37v).

https://www.academia.edu/4485636/NOBEL_Prize_Pathways_2014

Paper 53 lyrics lead the way (37v).

https://www.academia.edu/5592279/PEACE_SONGS_Favorite_2014

Paper 54 featured speaker at 70th anniversary (35v).

https://www.academia.edu/15462740/HIROSHIMA_Featured_Speech_Psychology_of_Empire_2015

Paper 55 political economic cycle reasons for war (33v).

https://www.academia.edu/28245203/WAR_Decision_Mechanisms_7_Papers_2013-2016_8p

Paper 56 first domino military economics leads to many social ills of empire (32v).

https://www.academia.edu/31815063/Military_Economy_Corollaries_8_2013-2017_9_pages

Paper 57 just the facts for those who erroneously think war brought us out of Depression (31v).

https://www.academia.edu/4044531/ROOSEVELT_Depression_War_Unpacking_Myths_1p.13

Paper 58 general peace economics theory (31v).

https://www.academia.edu/22797437/PUBLIC_RELEASES_Key_Peace_Economics_6p._2014-15

Paper 59 detailed analysis of older responses to my press release and other work (30v).

https://www.academia.edu/34794541/CHANGING_WORLD_VIEWS_2013-2017_13p._30_views_

Paper 60 making peace economics a degree program (29v).

https://www.academia.edu/5392455/DEGREE_Real_Economy_Curriculum_rev.1-8-14_12ppt_2p.14

Paper 61 there’s more to global warming than just greenhouse effect (28v).

https://www.academia.edu/7146962/THIRD_WAY_Global_Warming_20ppt_2014

Paper 62 cold blooded murder is given new meaning (28v).

https://www.academia.edu/5479721/WARS_Coldest_Year_Weather_Wealth_and_Wars_2p._1999

Paper 63 fees may be subject to prizes won (27v).

https://www.academia.edu/5043878/SPEAKING_Request_Email_bobreuschlein_at_gmail.com_2p._

Paper 64 Lucy Webster (famous world federalist) was an early fan and editor of this (25v):

https://www.academia.edu/606646/ECAAR_NewsNetwork_1_p._2003

Paper 65 number phobia is rampant (90%) in the world (22v).

https://www.academia.edu/5925707/NUMBERS_Words_Discrimination_2_p._2014

Paper 66 Manufacturing is to the Midwest as military and financial is to the coastal states (20v).

https://www.academia.edu/5740273/MIDWEST_and_the_Military_3_pages_2005

Paper 67 the second most important work after Peace Economics 1986 was in 1991 (18v).

https://www.academia.edu/4485559/NATURAL_GLOBAL_WARMING_CYCLE_10_p._1991

Paper 68 How I followed the rush by the Nobel Committee to follow me (18v).

https://www.academia.edu/37572795/Following_Nobel_Norwegians_Detail_10-8-18_release_4_pages

Paper 69 How three different cycles become one (18v):

https://www.academia.edu/37064850/Weather_Wealth_and_Wars_54_Year_Cycle_Unified_7-21-18_2p

Paper 70 Evaporation in unequal over land and ocean, and energy must be balanced in a cycle (16v).

https://www.academia.edu/7710046/EVAPORATION_makes_the_world_change_3_pages_1997

Paper 71 military is unhealthy for even the peacetime people (16v).

https://www.academia.edu/4273814/HEALTH_and_EMPIRE_6_ppt._1_p._2013

Paper 72 early years of this press release format (16v).

https://www.academia.edu/5710604/GREAT_YEARS_2013-2014_Peace_Economics_3p._2014

Paper 73 “othering” leads to wars and leads to killing those who are black (11v).

https://www.academia.edu/12824537/FERGUSON_JURY_Mistakes_list_of_10_2014

Paper 74 Flyover country once lead the way to American prosperity (11v).

https://www.academia.edu/9946682/Midwest_and_the_Military_Budget_2_p._2005

Paper 75 climate change leads to economic change, heat slows us all down (10v).

https://www.academia.edu/4862993/CLIMATE_Effects_ECONOMY_5_p._1999

Paper 76 the states respond politically to the military budget (8v).

https://www.academia.edu/38937971/Military_Geography_16ppt_on_2_pages_4-7-19 

Paper 77 “hands up don’t shoot” verified by prosecutor on December 4th radio cast (8v).

https://www.academia.edu/9999149/FERGUSON_Jury_Mistakes_12-7-14_2_p._2014

Paper 78 early evaluation of audience interests (8v).

https://www.academia.edu/8062287/VIEWINGS_Through_August_22_2014_3_p._

Paper 79 normal 20 year cooling period reduced to 15 years by global warming (8v).

https://www.academia.edu/6733709/EARTH_CYCLE_15_YEAR_WARMING_PAUSE_5_p._2014

Paper 80 Hurricane Harvey leads the burst of super-hurricanes that all follow cycle pattern (0v).

https://www.academia.edu/40420670/Summer_2019_Views_Leading_2016-2017_Press_Releases_12_p

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 30), “Academia Paper Views Ranked” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Academia-Paper-Views-Ranked,2019195013.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 125 Strong Web Looks in 12 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info: www.realeconomy.com

 

Summer 2019 Leading Views

Overall These 2016-2017 older Press Releases long dropped from the current 50 list were the most in demand this summer from July 9 to September 20.  Here are summaries of the top 11 older releases for these 73 days.  4470 views total non-current added views to 180 older releases.

Texas Hurricane “Harvey”  8-27-17 (90 views)

Harvey, 56 years after Carla in 1961 is only two years long from a perfect 54 year cycle, these are the most recent two category four hurricanes to land on Texas.  Harvey threatens to stay on the coast for a week and dump 52 inches of rain over Houston, double prior records, much more devastating, as water is usually more devastating in a hurricane than wind.  This could be worse than Katrina or Sandy in overall impact.  This rainfall exceeded the Hugo levels in 1989 in North Carolina, where 12 inches of rain matches the monthly rainfall total of September 1934 in North Carolina, the same month 55 years before.

Deep Politics of Iraq War 6-4-16 (75 views)

In danger of proving that all weapons of mass destruction had been eliminated, Operation Desert Fox was launched in December 1998.  When Saddam retaliated by kicking the inspectors out of Iraq, the US preserved the illusion that some weapons of mass destruction remained keeping Hussein in his box of sanctions.

Fraud in the Iraq War of 2003, The False War Resolution of October 2002 The war resolution requires the president to certify two things before launching a war.  One was there was a threat of weapons of mass destruction, and two that there was a connection to the attacks on September 11, 2001.  The Downing Street Memos show than Tony Blair and George Bush agreed to invade Iraq in April 2002.  Bombing doubled the rate in May 2002.  In August, Cheney started talking about nuclear weapons, the one thing inspectors agreed had been 100% eliminated in 1998.

Football Baseball and War 5-28-16 (65 views)

World War II changed everything.  Japan was forced to demilitarize, adopting a constitution against war.  They adopted baseball as their number one sport.  In 2015 on our trip to Japan that year, we saw from the train numerous fields of baseball players practicing all over Japan.  In the sixties, with glorification of World War II everywhere in the culture, America began to prefer football over baseball as the new number one sport.  Now, traveling in America, kids practicing football can be seen all over.

NFL Football Mimics War 10 reasons are cited in the press release, even comparing Roman Gladiators with NFL Football Players.

Teaching Peace Economics  9-4-17 (61 views)

Living with Thomas Kuhn’s Insights When Thomas Kuhn wrote “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” he gave me the guideposts to understanding the resistance of those in the world around me when I came out with my first strong findings in my short book “Peace Economics” in 1986.

Resistance to New Ideas I have been amazed at the insularity of many forums at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.  Your status at the University is much more important than your ideas for most of them.  This stands in sharp contrast to places like Oxford or Cambridge where independent scholars are welcome and appreciated at their numerous forums.

Thirty Year Class Warfare 10-18-16 (58 views)

Who knew when they voted for Ronald Reagan that they would be voting for thirty years of class warfare?  Ronald Reagan’s budget director David Stockman wrote a tell all book explaining that the three year fazed in tax cut was a “Trojan Horse” for bringing the top tax rate on the rich down from 70% to 28%.  We now know the top 1% have quadrupled their income and stifled the middle class thanks to Reagan policies.

SAGE Military Keynesianism shows that the problem with military spending is that it overpays and gets the best and brightest scientists and engineers and then does not give a product back into the economic mainstream.  Military resources deplete investment capital reducing the economic growth rate.

Living History of the CIA 4-16-16 (56 views)

Gary Webb came to Madison on his book tour after his “Dark Alliance” series in the San Jose Mercury News.  I asked why the press was so hard on him, and he responded that the CIA had a program called Operation Mockingbird to co-opt the press.  He further stated that the Church Committee of the seventies had documented 400 press connections to the CIA.  When I became a leading member of Madison’s anti-war group, I actively cross listed numerous articles by national and local peace list-serves.  It was quite an education, as my favorite pieces were about the lobby groups driving the whole war process, JINSA, CSP, and especially PNAC, Project for a New American Century.  All the big political names were in these groups.

Nobel Peace Year Highlights 10-1-17 (55 views)

Strange pattern on my website might indicate Nobel is double checking me out right now, Saturday afternoon 9-23-17 about 2pm Oslo time, and Monday evening 9-25-17 between 8pm and midnight, someone(s) read all 24 press releases since last Christmas.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee reportedly chooses in August according to Jim Murphy, announces October 6 Friday.  Since both days are the same 24 in a row, it’s hard to imagine that as anything but a double check by two of the five Norwegian politicians that make the decision. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday 6 October, 11:00 a.m. Norway time (4am Madison time CDT).

Letter to Nobel Committee 10-5-16 (51 views)

The precision findings that demand a “reduction of armies” for national survival are these two:

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

https://www.academia.edu/4475604/DEFENSE_STRATEGY_Chapter_Peace_Economics_7_p._1986

Benefits of Awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Robert Reuschlein

The million-dollar prize and publicity would make it possible to introduce the world to a new way of thinking about military spending, the economy, and global warming.  With the staff to research new stock market strategies and national strategies to finally, force politicians to recognize the huge drawbacks to keeping military spending excessively high for long periods, especially in peacetime but also in wartime.

CNN Top Stories: All Empire 1-2-16 (51 views)

Rise of Islamic State when world empire America invaded Saddam Hussein’s Iraq there was no Al Qaeda in Iraq, but in the ensuing chaos their quickly arose a chapter of Al Qaeda that sought to promote war between the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam.  Gay Marriage Supreme Court Decision The main theory of empire from right wing sources is that moral decay has led to the current state of America. Tolerating gay marriage is a sign of the moral decay of America.  Paris Terror Assaults Because of colonial involvement of France and Britain in the Middle East, decades of chickens coming home to roost.  Mass Shootings of four or more individuals totaled 355 late in the year. High levels of military spending as an indicator of empire shows that crime is a function of empire.  Cops Killing Unarmed Blacks The nature of our police forces have changed over the decades to include tactics heretofore reserved for our overseas forces.

Game Master Gygax History 5-14-17 (50 views)

Stretching the Imagination  The Role Playing Games Industry (Dungeons and Dragons) emerged from war gaming and the discipline and imagination of Gary Gygax (1938-2008) of Lake Geneva Wisconsin.  In 1966, Gygax founded the International Federation of Wargaming (IFW) 1967-1973 and encouraged fellow legend of wargaming Robert Reuschlein to join that group that became the largest wargaming group of its time. Gary Gygax developed the first successful wargaming convention in 1968, GenCon, starting with 100 wargamers, now featuring 50,000 attendees in Indianapolis each year.  Gary developed “Dungeons and Dragons” in 1974.

War Decision Mechanisms 9-9-16 (50 views)

Major War Cycle, 54 Years Long, Major Wars Happen in Cold Years (on 54 year cycle)

Low Level Military Defense (keeps economy stronger longer)

National Security State Born in a sociology class on power structure.  I compared Secretaries of State and Defense since World War Two in 1985 and the pattern continues today.  State tends to be hawkish and Defense tends to be dovish.  This is the reverse of most public opinion.  CIA Presidents: Obama Clinton Bush Sr. War and Occupy Economics (40% economic reduction under occupation)

The Worthlessness of War (few innovations, huge capital waste)   

The Complete Texts of These 11 Press Releases: https://www.academia.edu/40420670/Summer_2019_Views_Leading_2016-2017_Press_Releases_12_p

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 23), “Summer 2019 Leading Views” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Summer-2019-Leading-Views,2019194815.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 121 Strong Web Looks in 11.7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Reasons for Nobel Prize

Overall

Alfred Nobel’s Will states the second reason for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to the persons who have done the most in the last year to “reduce armies”.  Nothing could do more to make the leaders of governments worldwide to want to reduce their armies than the realization that the negative economic impact of military spending is to deplete capital investment and economic growth rates by the same amount as the military spending.  This has the counterproductive impact of weakening the nation in the name of defending the nation.  All militaries acknowledge the vital role economic strength plays in national defense.  Existing economic theories are fooled by the apparent economic support military spending gives to regions of a country.  This support ignores the “opportunity cost” of reducing manufacturing construction mining and agriculture, the goods producing industries, by the research and capital devoted instead to the military.  Unfortunately, military spending is a source of local leader political power wherever it is spent, and the national defense argument is used to overpay those involved in military industries aggravating the lost opportunity costs to the rest of the economy.

The Power of Science

The economists of the world are so convinced that “there will never be a science of economics” that they accept their humble role of fine tuning the business micro economics of supply and demand and turn to the weak blunt instrument of monetary policy or throw their hands in the air about macro economics “whatever that is”.  Keynesian economics works quite well, thank you, once you understand that government deficit spending lifts the economy and military spending depletes the economy dollar for dollar.  Then put the economy on the long term sinusoidal roller coaster of the Kondratiev (1926) 54 year cycle and measure the results every Juglar (1858) cycle of about eight to ten years (sometimes seven to eleven years) and United States manufacturing productivity growth rate becomes an exact science from 1920 to 1983, with precision comparable to early physics experiments of the Isaac Newton age.  Creating an actual science of macro economics was an engineering and accounting challenge met by a one-time leading war gamer and mathematician of Gary Gygax’s “International Federation of Wargaming” (1967-1973).  I gave up my wargaming career of an armchair general in 1974 moving to the West Coast for an MBA and political career in the eighties.  That same year (1974) Gary Gygax, my first mentor, invented “Dungeons and Dragons” selling one thousand copies that first year and millions a year just three or four years later.  His son told me that Gary talked about me all the time.

Science Changes Everything

Economists study the entrails of the economy in detail hoping to elicit clues about where the economy is going. They make argumentative cases for their educated guesses like a lawyer or a politician.  There are no certainties in their world.  Like a carpenter who measures three times and cuts once, scientists and engineers are far more meticulous and precise.  Scientific theories represent paradigm shifts that forever change our perspectives on the world.  Family history shows that students who can’t make it in engineering turn to accounting and those who can’t make it into accounting turn to economics.  As an engineer who made four honor societies in the third best electrical engineering program in the United States, and later became a Certified Public Accountant, I’m not third string like the economists.  Economic forecasting, Stock Market forecasting, Hurricane forecasting, and War forecasting will never be the same once people understand the power of my new models of the world and the science they are based on.

Empire Changes Everything

When these new sciences are applied to history a new appreciation for the impact of military spending on explaining American history and society over the last hundred years helps detail the state of empire America has fallen into.  Crime and health rates rise and fall with the changes in military spending, and states with the highest military spending are where the survivors of presidential primaries came from during the Cold War, when all elected US Presidents came from the high military spending states.  All eleven Cold War elections of US presidents were won by high military spending states candidates, and the seven low military spending states candidates nominated by one of the two major parties all lost.  Likewise, congressional leadership, cabinet secretaries, and Supreme Court appointees have all been about 80% from high military spending states, even though the population is equally divided between high and low military spending states.  I call this the empire bias.  Just as the Cold War arm race made Massachusetts Institute of Technology the leading Pentagon research institution, the post Cold War foreign policy and CIA emphasis made Johns Hopkins the leading Pentagon research institute today.  Likewise, CIA democrats like Clinton and Obama have become acceptable “emperors” or modern presidents outside the high military states club.  The CIA hides its agents well, so these two presidents and the elder George Bush have not come out of the closet as CIA agents in their youth yet.

Stories Change Everything

The story of the Cold War economy comes from my first Ruth Leger Sivard inspired graph.  Imagine the G7 countries in the Cold War as a story of three boats with nine people in each boat.  The American boat has two with oars and seven with swords.  The European boat has five with oars and four with swords.  The Japanese boat has eight with oars and one with a sword.  Who is going to win the race?  The Japanese won the Cold War economic race and the Europeans took time off for vacations and families with their high productivity.  The Americans bought into militarism and elitism and left the middle class behind as the rich quadrupled their income, wealth, and power.  If leaders still believe economics and military power are two independent goals unrelated to each other, the folly of militarism will continue, and peace and prosperity will remain elusive.

The Economic Engineering Model That Changes Everything: https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 16), “Reasons for Nobel Prize” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Reasons-for-Nobel-Prize,2019194670.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 118 Strong Web Looks in 11.5 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Corrupt Military Spending

Corruptions of Empire

Everybody wants to be number one, and countries are no exception to that rule.  Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely and those who pursue dominance with wars and military spending are certainly no exception to this rule either.  But what is the mechanism and what is the process that leads to these outcomes?

Military spending may just be an indicator some would think, but it is a cause, because it embodies the taking away from normal economic pursuits critical resources that are instead either left dormant or used to inflict violence and destruction.  Slowing the economy increases social stress.  Allowing talent from throughout the world to come to a dominant power can leave the indigenous population frustrated and left out and can undermine wage increases.

Power and Control

Military force can be an effective means of coercion against those who would prefer those means, but can be quite ineffective against those who are defending their homeland thousands of miles away from the homeland of the foreign troops.  Still, the application of military power is addictive to those who use it.  Control from the top down is usually alienated from and less effective than building loyalty from the bottom up.  A paid professional army from outside is never more motivated than an indigenous home army.  The farther away the lines of supply are, the greater the opportunity for corruption along the way.

Political Corruption

Those that control the allocation of military funds can be both powerful and corrupted by their power.  They can allocate those funds to themselves or to gain influence over others.  In the USA case this means members of defense appropriations and armed services committees usually dominate other members of congress, and committee chairs are the next higher level of power followed by the leaders of the political party in power and especially the president. That military spending is substantial and easily allocated to different companies and regions favored by these power positions gives this part of the federal budget unusually high levels of clout.

Social Corruption

Learning to kill others and then doing it is a corrupting and stressful force on those individuals.  Many social ills befall those who come home from wars.  Suicide and divorce are notable, but the fact that homicide and crime rates are proportional to military economy rates among countries is further proof of the domestic harm that comes to societies high in military spending.  There are three main causes of this relationship.  The direct connection is that training makes killing easier to resort to.  Secondly, considering other people as enemies leads to many kinds of discrimination when people are different racially, ethnically, by religion, by sex, by politics, by sexual orientation or even mental disposition.  Training to act quickly further can lead to accidents.  Thirdly, economic stagnation caused by taking resources away from goods producing industries and adding them to military purposes instead puts great strains on the civilian workforce and economy.  Frustrated people can then turn to crime, drugs, lotteries, suicide, and other diversions to reduce the pressure they feel under.  Powerless people can find others they consider lower on the totem pole to exert some power over.  Narrow hierarchies can exaggerate these problematic behaviors, so income inequality also separates and alienates people from each other.

Corruption and Diversionary Behaviors

The following chart shows the many diversionary tendencies of dominant empire societies versus emerging or mature growing societies.

A Study in Contrasts

High Military Low Military
Empire Challenger
Win/Lose Win/Win
Necessities At Risk Surplus At Risk
Feudalism Ingenuity
Stagnant Growth
Power Achievement
Sideways Forward
Lawyers Engineers
Boredom Excitement
Football Baseball
The Bomb Home
High Crime Low Crime
Unforgiving Forgiving
Service Sector Manufacturing Sector
Debt Savings
Imports Exports
Unemployment Full Employment
Two Income Families One Income Families
Weak Unions Strong Unions
Control Opportunity

Detailed Exploration of the Chart Above: https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 9), “Corrupt Military Spending” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Corrupt-Military-Spending,2019194492.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 112 Strong Web Looks in 11+ months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

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