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San Fran Earthquake Predicted

San Francisco Earthquake Predicted

August 24, 2014 my prediction came true as the biggest earthquake in the San Francisco area in twenty-five years hit the Napa Valley of California 40 miles North of San Francisco. On November 17, 2012 I predicted the next major San Francisco earthquake was most likely due about two years later in the year 2014. This came as part of my Peace Fest IV presentation at the Marquis Ballroom next to the popular Pancake Café on Nesbitt Road in the Fitchburg suburb of Madison, Wisconsin, with dozens of witnesses. Luciano Matheron captured the moment in the 44th minute of his video on vimeo. Here it is to see again: . This was an ad lib to the power point as Hurricane Sandy was mentioned as a current proof of the 54 year cycle less than three weeks before the presentation. The power point was modified November 23, 2012 showing the 2014 date on the schedule of actual events and with a statement on the top of the page saying I predicted a 50% chance of this occurring in the four year window 2012 to 2016 and using the central tendency of 2014 as the specific date on the chart of events.

That 56 event chart was posted here on my website in 2013, last year:
The prediction was listed as event number 18 of the 20 weather events listed, right after event 17 which was the event 25 years ago mentioned in the FOX news broadcast yesterday. No doubt in my mind the severe drought in California was a big part of the triggering occasion.
The prediction was repeated in six different presentations the last two years as I frequently warned audiences to not be in San Francisco in the year 2014 if they can avoid it. My most significant presentation came in Chicago with the World Futurist Society using this power-point on July 20, 2013. Look at frame 12 for the earthquake prediction:

The first notable prediction came with volcanoes in 1991, when I was living in Eugene, OR. Then I came out with my paper “Natural Global Warming” using mostly the Trends 90 book of long term temperature changes over various parts of the planet. Starting in 1988 with the NOAA data for the 95 years leading up to the 1988 drought, I did a number of numerical tests of the data using inspection and looking at cumulative changes over time. Eventually I used 14 temperature data sets and two on precipitation to reach my conclusions for the paper. I passed about seven copies of the paper to others including the Vice President in charge of research for the University of Oregon, John Moseley. I did this on May 7, 1991. Then Mount Pinutuba erupted in the Phillipines on June 16, 1991, and one of my readers came up to me and said “this is your first proof of your theory” because it was exactly 108 years after Krakatoa in 1883. Both came from the same South of China part of the world, where precipitation is the heaviest in the world as storms build steam coming East from the coast of South America across the biggest ocean on the planet, the Pacific. And both came after about two decades of strong global warming. These two volcanoes skipped the 54 year cycle and went to the 108 year cycle because of the oceanic nature of every other 54 year cycle.
The paper I sent out for review on May 7, 1991:

I was at a Martin Luther King party in January 2007 at Lorna Miller’s house in Madison, Wisconsin, with Ed Garvey (NFL players rep, Senate and Governor candidate near miss and founder of Fighting Bob Fest) present and a couple dozen or more revelers generally of the Democratic persuasion. I shared my thoughts as part of an open forum, explaining how the $70 billion surge in Iraq would lead to recession. I was right although the financial impact on the military budget shows the financial surge came in fiscal year 2008, as it takes some time to deploy troops and change the budget. That is about right, since unemployment started a two year surge in July 2007 until July 2009, and the recession officially started in December 2007. Certainly the financial crisis hit in September 2008, the last month of that fatal military buildup fiscal year. The years of lack of oversight of Wall Street came to a head in the high military, high crime and corruption states, since crime and the military spending states are strongly correlated. So the financial corruption that peaked with the real estate market bubble of the politically driven military buildup states stalled and collapsed the whole economy.
See pages 6-7, 12-13, and the all important conclusion on page 24:

Approximately in the year 2025 I expect the current global warming pause to end with a very cold year and a major war starting then, followed by 27 years of very strong global warming until 2052. To the people of the Bay Area, my condolences for your earthquakes, but you may not be out of the woods just yet. Just as the drought of 1934 was followed by the drought of 1936, the Mississippi flood of 1993 was followed by the 1995 near flood, and the Blizzard of 1993 was followed by the stronger Blizzard of 1996, nature may not quite be done with the Bay area just yet. The high danger window runs through 2016. Remember Mount Saint Helens had a much smaller eruption before the big one days later. The quake 25 years ago was 30 times stronger, and the 1906 one was one hundred times as strong as 1989. So the timing is there in this quake, but not the size, so there may be more to come. But it will probably come sooner rather than later, and after 2016 the risk will drop until the 2041 period 27 years from now. The 54 year earth cycle predicts timing much better than magnitude.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact
to leave message 608-230-6640
for more info
(Peace Economics 1986 available for $10 ebook)

Growing Reputation, Requests

When I reached out to to send press releases out to 7000 people once a week, I never dreamed it would go like this. With press releases averaging 200 views starting the once a week in December, none of them exceeded 300 until April 2014. Then I broke the 500 level in May with 900 in June, then 1000 in July, now 1400 in August. Military Money and Power is still growing strong at the end of its second week, might break 1500 fairly soon. Then Ferguson Missouri exploded with protests and “Militarized Terror Policing” becomes an online magazine article on page 125 for the Fall edition of Here at home Urban League leader Kaleem Caire writes “Bob, thank you so much for organizing the Rally!! That’s leadership!” as Madison seeks to join the country’s vigil Thursday August 14th.

But there is a problem in my yearlong publicity campaign for the peace economic ideas. I combined weekly press releases on with emails to my personal email list, local media list, the peace and justice listserve, and weekly two minute commentaries on local community radio WORT 89.9 fm in Madison, Wisconsin. But suddenly without warning, these community access commentaries that have been going on for twenty years were discontinued “due to technical difficulties” although one former board member suggests it is just laziness. Whether this is temporary, as the perpetrator Molly suggests, or permanent as a current board member thinks, it is clearly at odds with the express mission statement of WORT, which seeks to provide “community access to the airwaves” “with concern for those underrepresented by other media”. This is exactly what those of us using this privilege feel to be the case. My listeners think I’ve dropped the ball, when in fact I had the rug pulled out from under me.


I have had access to various tracking date from the 19,095 viewings by the press and 1009 viewings by academia of my papers. From academia I know city and country location information, so my followers are about one fourth Wisconsin locals, one fourth international, and one half other United States. From both I have totals by title. The results were counterintuitive as I broke them down by research area of Empire Economics (often called Peace Economics) or 54 Year Cycle Theory or mostly Biographical. Then I further broke down those three categories into two more, theory or historical. To my surprise, I found Peace Economics to be more theory, and cycle theory to be more history. In the actual research I found Peace Economics to be fairly simple, mostly figured out in six months, while cycle theory took me three years to figure out the main patterns. The press releases for peace economics were 72% theoretical, while those for biography were 90% historical. For academia, the results were more balanced, with the sharpest split for cycle theory, 68% historical. Cycle theory, although more complex, is very empirical. But numbers analysis is essential to both branches of my research.
The runaway favorite for the press is “Military Money and Power” with 1443 at this moment, while the favorite for academics is the one page “SUMMARY” at 124 viewings. That the press have so many more viewings is misleading. The press measures first viewing, while the academic measures those who take the trouble to take an extra click at the bottom of the page for additional information after reading the same press release. Of the top five for the press, four are on peace economics theory and one is historical biographical. Of the top eight for the academics, two are peace economics theory, three are cycle history and one cycle theory, while two are biographical, one theory and one history. Perhaps it all makes sense. In February I switched to cycle theory and the results were a slight retrenchment, then in March I tried biography and results improved, but the best results came when I went back to peace economics theory basics in the summer. People want to know the logic for all my claims, and the military is fascinating while global warming is not so much so, with biography in between. And academics are all over the place, interested in everything to some extent. Pure academic educational issues do the worst of all.

Titles and Details:

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact
to leave message 608-230-6640
for more info
(Peace Economics 1986 available for $10 ebook)

Militarized Terror Policing

This is what we’ve come to. Seventy years of hollowing out our manufacturing sector to support the military sector instead. Started in the name of the Cold War and perpetuated with the Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq now in the name of terror. Endless backfires overseas from CIA operations gone bad. Now our police have become an occupying army in our cities.

Saint Louis proudly rose to be the #1 per capita military spending city of the top 25 metro areas as the manufacturer of the F-15, the best fighter plane in the world during the 1991 Gulf War. But militarization causes crime problems and the empire attitude of power and control. The Saint Louis County former police chief learned his anti-terrorism from the Israelis, and the militarized response to the protest of the Michael Brown execution by a policeman embarrassed even Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans. So on August 14, 2014 one hundred US cities held vigils and moments of silence against police overreactions like this one and many others in recent years or months. Here in Madison, Wisconsin, I called a rally and over 100 people showed up along with three TV cameras and a Capital Times story. We raised $540 for the funeral expenses of Michael Brown. Military spending and murder rates are twice as high for the Southern militarized states including civil war Border States and former slave states like Missouri. But even low military low crime Madison has had three white men shot dead by police under questionable circumstances in the last year.

Among the developed countries, the higher the military spending rate the higher the homicide rates. So when the Cold War ended in 1991, the cutting in half of the military spending share of the economy cut our murder and crime rates in half as well. But political trends can often run counter to economic ones. Nixon’s war on drugs started the militarization of our police forces, then we doubled our total prisoners from 1 million in 1990 to 2 million in 2000, exactly when crime and the unemployment rates were dropping. And in 1997 the 1033 program began offering military hardware to our civilian police forces. But the big push came after the controlled demolition of three skyscrapers in Manhattan on September 11, 2001, blamed on terrorist commandeered airplanes despite the fact that 1700 degree kerosene aircraft fuel fires cannot melt steel that melts at 2600 degrees. Despite the fact that freefall collapse would have left a pile of debris fifteen stories high, not the three stories of actual debris that resulted. Traces of the CIA nano-thermite explosive were everywhere according to peer reviewed papers. The truth is the first casualty in war.

International graph of murder and the military:

The agencies making up homeland security had budgets averaging $15 billion a year in the three years from 2000-2002, doubling immediately on forming the new agency to an average of $32 billion the next three years 2003-2005. That first doubling began the militarization of police forces in earnest. Then with the NSA spying on all our emails and phones, homeland security jumped up to $69 billion in 2006, with a five year average of $45 billion from 2007 to 2011. Thanks to all this money armored vehicles started to become standard in small communities of 70,000 people or so.

The military budget increased 50 percent in the three years after 9-11-01, explaining 1.7 million of the 2.8 million manufacturing jobs lost from September 2001 to August 2003. Trade treaties and outsourcing explain the other 1 million jobs lost. This military buildup distorted the growth rates around the country, as real estate prices soured in the military buildup states like Connecticut, Texas, California, and Florida. These later became the leading mortgage fraud states in the coming debacle. Much later, the military buildup rate of increase suddenly doubled in 2008 as the money for the 2007 Iraq surge finally caught up with the troop activity. This military burden cracked the fragile fraudulent mortgage market as the unemployment rates steadily increased that year peaking in mid 2009. Economists have calculated the recession beginning in December 2007. As the steam evaporated from the overheated military buildup economy, the housing market crashes, especially in the military buildup states.

Detail on the military buildup:

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact
to leave message 608-230-6640
for more info
(Peace Economics 1986 available for $10 ebook)

Military Money and Power

The name of the game in Washington DC is power, and nothing confers power like control of the military budget. Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are larger budgets but they are entitlements distributed fairly uniformly among the various states, except for Florida with its huge senior citizen population. During the Cold War, the military budget distribution was the major cause of state by state differences in per capita federal spending. During the Cold War, the military budget per capita state distribution was about four times the variance of all other programs combined. Today it is still the major source of variance among the states, but only slightly more than all other programs combined. This military principle means that presidents, speakers of the house, majority leaders of the senate and appropriations committee chairs, military subcommittee appropriations chairs, and armed services committee chairs are the key power brokers in Washington DC with all else small potatoes. I would add cabinet members and congressional leadership and supreme court members. The high military state percentage of all of these power groups is about 80%. For shorthand, I refer to these power centers as the military presidency or military states, because where these politicians come from, their home states, are key to understanding the power and control they exercise. In terms of congressional leadership, the percentage coming from high military spending states increases when their party is in power and decreases when their party is out of power. In presidential politics, the reason Iowa usually gets it wrong and New Hampshire usually gets it right is because Iowa is a low military spending state and New Hampshire is a high military spending state. The military states are about 20 but with half the US population. Sometimes a better measure of their dominance is to look at the military neighborhood states, that is whether the state and all adjacent states are collectively above or below the military average per capita. For example, Tennessee and Arkansas are technically low military states, but each is surrounded by mostly high military states. Using the neighborhood standard expands the military neighborhood states to 30 making high militarism the norm for the country.

This military money also confers great electoral and economic power, because those who work in the military industries are overpaid about one third more compared to similar jobs in normal private industry. Hence military states have disproportionate economic power and fundraising power compared to other states. Because most military contractors are overwhelmingly dependent on the military dollar for 80% or 90% of their business, their tends to be an equal and opposite political power attached to them, for example, Halliburton and Dick Cheney, Boeing and Senator Scoop Jackson, Lockheed Martin and Senator Sam Nunn or Speaker Newt Gingrich or President Jimmy Carter. Two two term presidents have come from the largest military state, Nixon and Reagan of California. That same state hogged four times the military research money of the second and third states, Maryland and Massachusetts respectively. That state went from third to first in population during the Cold War.

Winning presidential elections requires both sides to win at least some military states. So the presidential candidates of both political parties have a pro military bias. While congressional Democrats outside the South vote about 90% against military money and Republicans everywhere vote about 90% for more military money, Southern Democrats in congress and Democratic Presidencies tend to be fifty fifty.

Most major weapons systems are awarded more on the basis of power than quality of the proposal. For example, Lyndon Johnson had the F-111 contract rebid twice after Boeing won the first two bids, so that his home state production facility located in the Dallas suburb of Fort Worth could finally win the bid on the third try. Sort of like the way the Soviet Union won an Olympic basketball gold medal once. That Forth Worth congressional district went on to propel James Wright into the Speaker of the House position. The historic Bell Helicopter plant in the racist Cobb County Marietta suburb of Atlanta had produced all of America’s airlift capacity (C-130 and C-5a) during the Cold War up through the Jimmy Carter presidency. Former John Birch Society president Norm McDonald represented that district until dying in the 1983 Korean airliner shot down by the Soviets. Then Newt Gingrich took that seat in congress going on to be Speaker after the 1994 election.

Back to the airlift story. Future Nobel Peace laureate Jimmy Carter while in the White House proposed Human Rights for our foreign policy launching a wave of democratic leaders in Latin American countries previously having become dictatorships in the wave after Lyndon Johnson let Torillo take over power in Panama. The only major military initiative launched by the Jimmy Carter presidency involved a need for more airlift capacity to enable the Rapid Deployment Force (RDF). This later made the Gulf War of 1991 and the Iraq War of 2003 possible, with obvious benefits to the presidential home state of Georgia. The only major dove like position of Senator Sam Nunn, Armed Services chair from the same state as the president under Jimmy Carter, came when Nunn had presidential ambitions in 1983. He proposed reducing the troops in Germany from 300,000 to 100,000. Amazing how that helps the argument for more airlift to bring those troops back to Germany in a hurry if the Soviets start acting up.

Another good example is the rise of Trent Lott. He started as a congressman from Pascagoula Mississippi. Mississippi was a top five military spending per capita state at the time. But the other four congressional districts from Mississippi were agricultural low military spending districts. So the military spending in Pascagoula was so intense it brought the state into the top five. Later Trent Lott went on to become Senator and then Senate Majority Leader, thanks to the military money power of Pascagoula.

Then there’s Pete Wilson of San Diego, Dick Gephardt of Saint Louis and Tip O’Neill of Boston. Those were the three highest per capita military spending major metropolitan areas in America in the eighties. Tip O’Neill was the Irish Speaker of the House that had the famous personal relationship with president Ronald Reagan. Pete Wilson went from lowly mayor of California’s only third largest city, but home of the Pacific fleet, to later be elected Senator and Governor. Dick Gephardt, Democratic Leader in Congress, ran second to Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts for the nomination for president in 1988. Only problem is, Massachusetts had more military money than Saint Louis. And Dukakis could run on the Massachusetts economic miracle pretending he had something to do with that miracle. Actually that miracle came from Tip O’Neill getting Boston’s share of the Reagan military buildup. But Tip O’Neill retired in 1987, and was unavailable to protect the military money for fiscal year 1988. So low and behold, in August 1988 Dukakis has to return to the governorship duties in a major financial crisis for Massachusetts in the midst of his presidential campaign, as the military chickens come home to roost, so to speak. What launched his campaign in the Winter primaries later doomed his campaign in the Fall. Regional economics in American is 97% correlated to the military money changes as shown in the Reagan buildup study and the end of Cold War study, as the winners are high military states in the buildup and low military state in the builddown.

See pages eight to eleven in the video booklet for the regional economy picture:

In this 1984 analysis of federal spending per capita by state, two term Cold War presidencies (Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Reagan) had about twice the average military money for their home state, and one term presidencies (Johnson, Carter, Bush 41) had about the average military money for their home state:

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact
to leave message 608-230-6640
for more info
(Peace Economics 1986 available for $10 ebook)

Why 54Yr Earth Cycle Matters

We know everything about micro weather events and nothing about the Earth Cycle of 54 years underlying those climate events, economic long term trends and events, and major war outbreaks. We know so much about geological time scale events and why variations in earth orbit or tilt generate ice ages every 10,000 or 40,000 or 100,000 years, but remain ignorant about the land ocean inter-reaction caused by evaporation differences and triggered by periodic solar radiation pulses over a 54 year cycle. Short term cycles like the two and a half year cycle or less are studied and long term cycles of thousands or millions of years leave this area in between hardly covered at all. Yet there is an abundance of information out there, hindered by prejudice and ignorance and stereotypes such as “flat earth” style conventional economics denying the Kondratiev cycle and or considering it only applies to economics. Yet the natural cycle (weather), the economic cycle (wealth), and the political cycle (wars) are directly and logically connected as I have seen it since my May 7, 1991 paper “Natural Global Warming” and the more recent summaries in the “Climate War Cycle” presentations of the last two years of refinements.

For original paper:

The Earth Cycle, as I choose to call it, matters greatly and continues to predict events even with all the changes from the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect changes the underlying warming trend but the Earth Cycle still prevails in the timing of new extreme events, which are area specific and time specific in nature. Hurricane Sandy still comes 52 years after the last time the battery in Southern Manhattan was flooded, right on schedule. The only evidence of change is the major drought of 2012 coming 24 years after the major drought of 1988. But even that “hurry up” occurs on the half cycle and is followed with the 2013 near major flood on the Mississippi just twenty years after the 1993 flood on the outskirts of St. Louis. But the bigger flood is probably still to come much closer to the 27 year half cycle mark, probably around 2020. The cycle in wars is only slightly hurried up with Iraq in 2003 a little early for the 2006 expected date, but the Suez war of 1956 is almost exactly matched with the 55 years later Egyptian leader Mubarak deposed in 2011. When Ukrainian leader Khrushchev took the Crimea from Russia and added it to Ukraine, no one thought much about it because it was all part of the Soviet Union then. Now, 60 years later Russia takes it back in a bloodless move and the US is all outraged. What about the $5 billion dollar “democracy” campaign by the CIA that deposed a pro-Russian Ukrainian president. That $5 billion was the whole cost of the presidential and congressional elections in the US in 2008. How is that not “meddling” in another nation’s internal affairs?
Back to the weather cycle, it is pretty regular, but very location specific. Each major city and state should check the historical record and anticipate similar events about 54 years later, usually same location, and the same month. Usually the same year plus 54, but often a year or two off, some times several years off. Multi year averaged turning points are most accurate, then major droughts, floods, blizzards, El Nino’s, and volcanoes. Least accurate and most random are the earthquakes.

For more on the weather cycle:

The US and some other leading countries such as Germany are very regular in their long cycle of 54 years. Globalization is taking things to a new level, the worldwide level, lately. The smoothness of the cycle is not in touch with the 2008 world recession started in the United States. The problem is the lack of political oversight by the ideological but incompetent Bush regime. Still, the cycle says the next peak in interest rates and inflation should be about 2036 with probably a much worse depression like event at that time. Interest rates will steadily go up between now and then, with the usual give and take of markets. Betting against this trend would be very foolish.

For more on the economic connection to the earth cycle:

The war cycle has two components, the economic one is very regular, and the temperature one is even more regular. Economic disparities among nations are sharpest at the end of the 27 year growth cycle (1994 to 2021). The wealth accumulation cycle peaks at the end of this cycle (2021) so wars as a method of separating number one from number two tend to break out about three years after (2024 average, 2025 most frequent specific year historically.) But the actual trigger year has an amazing coincidence with the coldest year of a period, usually as part of a two or three year cooling burst. But in 1968, turmoil worldwide did not directly tie into wars (or did it? Tet Offensive in Vietnam 1968, Sino Soviet border clashes in 1969) so much as world wide tensions, as the Northern Hemisphere hot streak ended in 1968 and the Southern Hemisphere hot streak began in 1969. Tensions manifested in riots in America and France, and the 1966 cultural revolution in China. The 2020’s could go either way, with tensions as the next global warming spurt starts in earnest, or hegemonic or lesser wars involving the top economies in the world, probably some combination of America, China, and maybe Japan or all three as happened in the world wars.
One intriguing aspect of the war cycle:

The zealots on one side and the deniers on the other both confuse the complexity of global warming. My own evaporation based Earth Cycle expects the last 1973 to 1998 heating cycle to continue to consolidate as an ocean holds the land back from further heating until about 2025. The temperature gap between the ocean and land is huge right now, preventing much in the way of global warming until that gap is reduced greatly at the end of one decade from now. This tends to leave the cycle in a choppy phase, so weather will be greatly erratic for the next decade, much like the last decade.

See third way presentation about the land ocean conflict, given at recent conferences in Nashville and Madison:

The linkages from planetary weather cycle to economic cycle to war cycle are covered in my power point presentation below and this video:

Comprehensive modern power point, 18 slides: 18ppt.3p._2013

Events of the 54 Year Cycle of all kinds, 56 examples:

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact
to leave message 608-230-6640
for more info
(Peace Economics 1986 available for $10 ebook)

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