Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the month “October, 2013”


The biggest impediments to economic growth are the military and temperature.
When they go up the economy shrinks, when they go down the economy grows.

1) Economics is considered the dismal science because of its inaccuracy. But Reuschlein’s manufacturing productivity model of the US covers sixty years with 99.9% accuracy. Accuracy continued when extended thirteen years to 1996.
2) Global warming and cooling was not seen as a part of the 54 year cycle until Reuschlein’s May 1991 paper preceded the confirming event of the June 1991 Mt. Pinatuba eruption. Then this year Reuschlein’s World Future Society presentation showed a 55 year moving average gives a cycle adjusted straight line for global warming since 1973.
3) The book Spirit Level by Richard Wilkenson and Kate Pickett document how a couple dozen social and health effects are adversely affected by high levels of income inequality. The six strongest correlating factors of their nine factor index correlate .82 with my long term military spending averages and only .69 with their income inequality, making Reuschlein’s empire theory the better explanation.
4) The 240 experts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change can’t explain the current 15 year global warming stall. Reuschlein explains it and predicts it will continue for another 12 years.
5) Reuschlein 2013 is expecting three world events: in 2014 a major San Francisco earthquake, in 2025 the major war of our cycle, and 2036 the major economic depression of our times in each of the three “weather wealth and war” categories. Reuschlein has unique insights linking all three categories of the cycle.
6) The so-called experts often say there was no peace dividend in the nineties. No one predicted either the economic boom or the drop in crime rates that WAS the Nineties Peace Dividend except Dr. Robert Reuschlein’s books Peace Economics and Strength Through Peace.
7) Before Reuschlein invented the term Peace Economics to title his first book in 1986, the field was unfortunately termed “economic conversion.” Conversion only reminded people of unwanted religious visitors at your front door. Two years later the SANE/freeze peace movement used the new terminology adopting Peace Economy as their top priority.
8) Both economists and global warming theorists make the same mistake. They both think macro modeling can result from micro modeling, not recognizing that macro needs its own unique structure and that elegant science is still possible.  for audio at bottom of notice for text

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,  608-230-6640


Murder, Crime Drop In Nineties

The new young star on MSNBC, Chris Hayes, took over Ed Schultz’s primetime spot on weekdays (7 here and 8 Eastern) between Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow. But before this new superstar moved to primetime, he was doing a two hour early morning show at 7am on Saturday and Sunday. On the last weekend of last year he did a show on crime and guns with a couple of academic crime experts on the show. He pointed out to them and got them to admit that no one knew why crime had suddenly dropped to half its eighties level in the nineties.
Reuschlein’s research since 1989 has clearly shown that crime and military rates are exactly proportional among five of the G7 countries, with a correlation coefficient of a perfect 1.00 rounded to two decimal places, yes, a .996. So the drop in military spending at the end of the Cold War produced a corresponding drop in murder and crime rates. You can look up the details on my website. If Chris Hayes is right, then I am the only one in the world who knows the military cause of the drop in crime in the nineties. I amazed the Justice Studies Association with my presentation on crime May 30, 2012. I watched the eyebrows lift on the conference organizer.
A prophet is without honor in his own home town. But I feel the tide turning with a pickup in viewings on my academic website:
Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein, 608-230-6640 for actual voice recording at bottom of listing

The New Weimar Republic

After the First World War, Germany formed a democratic government that stagnated due to a large block of antigovernment members of parliament taking control during the early thirties Depression.  This WeimarRepublic lead to the rise of fascism and World War II.

Today America was emerging from two wars when a Depression hit and brought into power a large number of antigovernment members of the House of Representatives.  Now we are seeing the rise of Ted Cruz as he manipulates the angry Tea Party base of these antigovernment legislators.  Extremist tactics are being used to attempt to hold the president and Senate hostage in order to further the fortunes of demogogues.

These are times of many legitimate fears, with the right using the opportunity to cut programs, while the left is very tentative in addressing the real problem of runaway income inequality brought to light by the occupy movement.  All meager gains since the economic collapse have gone to the top 1% as the middle class falls further behind the elites.  We have been in record inequality territory since 2000 and are way beyond the old records of the twenties.

I proposed a four point recovery plan at a recent Madison Institute program.  First, restore the high tax rate on the rich to 50% or more, beginning with the Buffett rule.  Second raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour.  Third, breakup the too big to fail banks into the two components of banking and investing.  Fourth, cut the pentagon back 60% to average world rates of two percent of the economy.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,

Global Warming Slow Down

The Global Warming record has a relative top at 1944, and another relative top at 1998, exactly 54 years later.  These data points show a clear 54 year cycle.  We have yet to exceed the 1998 peak fifteen years later and the next relative bottom twelve years from now is the most likely major war date as well, 2025.  This global warming pause is predictable to a 54 year cycle theorist, but a complete mystery to the IPCC with its 240 specialists in 205 different areas.

Nicolai Kondratiev worked in 1926 in the atmospheric physics center in the early Soviet Union, but because he predicted the post World War II economic boom Stalin sent him to Siberia where he died.  Stalin did not want to consider that capitalism would ever recover, so the Kondratiev Wave based on historical pig iron production cycles, was ignored in his own country due to politics and in the West due to Soviet origins.  Divorced from its weather roots, the long cycle of about 50 years is usually considered an economic cycle.  As far as I know, I am the only one in the world to link this 54 year cycle to climate change and wars and show causality from climate to economy to war.  48 major events document this cycle.  For Roman Empire Wars and Klyashtorin’s work on Greenland ice core data, the cycle is 55 years, which is better to use for a moving average.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,

World Peace President  for actual audio

The World Peace President

Historians like Noam Chomsky, Howard Zinn, and Allen Ruff have long maintained that we would have had the Vietnam War anyway if Kennedy had lived.  Recent books show just the opposite.  In the new book “Last Hundred Days” the author shows that Kennedy was planning to pull out of Vietnam by  1965, beginning with 1000 advisors in December 1963.  His Peace Corps and nuclear test ban treaty were just the beginning of his peace offensive.  He had continued the McCloy Zorin mutual disarmament talks with Khrushchev in between crises.  After the 1961 Bay of Pigs disaster he was determined to end CIA covert operations.  He stood tall in the Berlin Wall crisis and later in the Cuban missile crisis he prevented nuclear war.

When he died Khrushchev cried, and Mrs. Kennedy told Khrushchev that he would have to pursue world peace alone with Kennedy gone.  Contrary to many historical accounts (historians are terrible with numbers) Kennedy kept lowering the percent of GNP to the military year after year and Johnson continued that trend for the last of Kennedy’s four years.  Those military cuts and to a lesser extent the Kennedy tax cut were responsible for the doubled economic growth rate of the sixties over the Eisenhower years.  So the Johnson Hoover CIA coup d’etat prevented the end of the Cold War in the sixties and the Soviet military dumped Khrushchev the next year.  Today average jobs would earn $200,000 per year in America if Kennedy had lived long enough to restore the American dream.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,


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