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Changing the World Views

How Mastering Macroeconomics and Climate Change Created Kudos and Backlash

My academic work creating a perfect science-like model of economic growth proves that military spending is the biggest impediment to a powerful nation’s economic growth.  That in turn leads to my new defense strategy requiring a nation to minimize military spending or fall into decline that will inevitably be eclipsed by another power.  Many falsely assume this decline to be inevitable, when in fact it is the result of prolonged over-militarization.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee’s failure to recognize this new reality of science only delays, it does not stop, the inevitable recognition that excessive militarization is self-poisoning of a society.  It does not stop the fact that huge stock market gains are possible following the moves of the military industrial complex better and recognizing the Great Lakes states region moves in the opposite direction of the military budget.  That is because military spending drains key science and capital resources away from civilian manufacturing industries that can be restored by reducing the military budget.  Even the military will benefit from initial lowering, because that results in a better future for them and the society around them as the new high growth glide path “tide lifts even the military boat” ever higher faster.

History of Campaigning to Change the World

My campaign to change the world began with a brochure with a bar chart by Ruth Sivard in 1983.  I took it to the walls of legislative workspace of the 1983 Oregon legislative session with blown up copies of that bar chart.  Finding that in my files after the 1985 Oregon legislative session, I realized the world was ignoring her great work, so I began to test it.  My tests lead to the first presentation of material in December 1985 to the Lane County Commissioners, including Jerry Rust who offered to submit my material to the Pulitzer Prize committee back then and in 2016 submitted my first nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Then Frank Arundel offered me his MacIntosh to complete the first edition of “Peace Economics” in 1986 which I extensively footnoted unlike these blogs.  That remains my clearest and most convincing work of the Economic Model that results from the nonproductive nature of military spending.  PRIO, the “Journal of Peace Research” in Oslo Norway where the Nobel Prize is awarded, asked me to submit an article, but I did not know how to, so I ignored them.  I taught three academic years my Peace Economics course from 1987 to 1989 at the University of Oregon.  My enrollment for a Doctorate in Economics at U.O. ended in my withdrawal due to the fact my professors agreed with me that military spending was non-productive, yet it was not in the model we were expected to study for the first year.  Frustrated at the University, I turned to being a monthly columnist 1989-1997 with Peter Bergel’s Oregon PeaceWorker which had a circulation of 10,000.  Soon all the Democratic Congresspersons knew of my work and Peter DeFazio asked me to write a piece for him to read on the floor of the House, but I was intimidated once more, fearing I might be too critical for a political body like that.  Then Richard Schneider of Radio for Peace International asked me to offer a University of the Air shortwave radio course in 1997 until 2004 when RFPI folded.

The New Campaign

Having met a professor at an anti-war rally in 2003, she later helped me find a new Doctoral Program without the obstinacy of Economics.  From 2006 to 2009 I completed the Doctorate in Educational Leadership from Madison, Wisconsin’s Edgewood College, next to the Edgewood High School I once graduated from and earned the first of many subsequent listings in Marquis Who’s Who I am listed in, later including America and World.  My day job for many years had been as a CPA working for my father, but now I could finally get on with my real life’s work establishing the new scientific economic theory no one in the field of economics even thought was possible.  Economists and Accountants don’t have the scientific training of an engineer, my first degree, so I knew the only way was to advance my ideas to academics and the public until the anticipated foot dragging of economists was overcome.  To that end, I turned to blogging press releases on expertclick.com, recommended by an author I had read.  I now have 119,000 views on Expertclick.com over a four year period, 5443 views on Academia.edu, 5014 views on WordPress.com, and about 10,000 views on Realeconomy.com which has links to all the other detailed websites and is the best place to start.

Favorites of the Press

ExpertClick.com shows me constant updates I check daily for the most current 50 press releases sent out to their list of 7000.  Of those who have left the 50 list, but remain on access to site visitors, I update those results once a year.  The full lists ranked by both views and chronologically are at the link at the bottom of this page.  The most popular old releases in the last year are, in rank order of views this last year, in parentheses (all time total), and date:

Predictions 200 (1067) 8-26-14, Global Citizen 190 (1289)     6-28-14, Walker Work Dignity 154 (722) 2-28-15, Politician in Eugene 151 (789) 5-14-14, Scientific Revolution 142 (687) 12-21-14, Nepal Chile 127 (595) 4-28-15, Grandpa Horicon Marsh 121 (695) 3-1-14, Elections Plus 114 (553) 11-13-14, Military Terror Policing 101 (1222) 8-17-14, Modern Feudalism 99 (863) 2-21-15, Religion and Empire 99 (795) 1-3-15, Heat Hurts 99 (652) 9-8-14, Baltimore Riot 97 (613) 5-2-15.

Favorites of the Academics

Academia.edu lists my 72 papers, including seven peer reviewed articles, several six per page power point conference presentations, many chapters of my unpublished book based on the Radio for Peace International course, the most important Defense Strategy and Economic Model chapters of “Peace Economics”, and many special papers on key topics old and new.  These are ranked by downloads as a marker of serious interest in the link at the end of this article. Unfortunately, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has focused only on the superficial ExpertClick.com press releases and not enough on this academic papers section.  The most important work of all is the 1986 Economic Model and the 1986 Defense Strategy chapters from “Peace Economics” worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize.  The Climate War Cycle power point from 7-20-13 World Future Society presentation and the Weather Cycle paper document the 54 year cycle work that is worthy of the Nobel Physics Prize.  Both of these together are worthy of the Nobel Economics Prize.  Alas for me, the world is full of very slow learners. The ranked lists of state, country, and topics are all shown in the link at the bottom of this page.  This is my best source for people and places interested in my work, and show an evolution from mainly US interest, to mainly British Empire interest among the foreign interest, to strong global acceptance of my work beyond the British Empire countries including more US and worldwide gamers from the Gary Gygax and Dungeons and Dragons crowd.

Favorites of the Mostly Political Friends and Public

BobReuschlein.wordpress.com is where I put all my press releases, and it allows typos to be corrected so it is the best version of my press releases and includes some excellent work just before I started with ExpertClick.com in October 2013 including the first interest by the Pentagon and the CIA in my work. This general list to the public and my mostly political friends has very different priorities than the other two.  Much of this comes from referrals.  Here are the 16 most interesting articles according to the common folk out there, in rank order of views:

1133 Scientific Revolution Facts (Thomas Kuhn), 114 “Where to Invade Next” (Michael Moore), 104 Wargaming with Gary Gygax, 92 Game Master Gygax History, 70 Nobel Peace Prize Nominee, 58 Politician in Eugene Oregon, 53 History US Military Economy, 51 The New Weimar Republic, 47 Are Chili and Nepal Related?, 47 Modern Stages of Empire, 43 Scott Walker of Wisconsin, 42 To Hillary Clinton Critics, 40 Paris Terror, Who Gains?, 40 CIA Presidents:  Obama Clinton, 38 Baltimore Riot the New Watts, 38 Odds on Nobel Peace Prize.

For complete ranked lists of viewings by topic, state, country, by websites:

https://www.academia.edu/34794541/CHANGING_WORLD_VIEWS_2013-2017_13p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, October 8). “Changing the World Views”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Changing-the-World-Views-Robert-Reuschlein,2017130137.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Nobel Peace Year Highlights

Saturday October 14th 8:30am at the ISSS-ISAC conference at American University in Washington DC I will be presenting my “low military is the best defense strategy”, a key concept in reducing military spending world wide, and a key reason to award the Peace Prize.

In the year between Nobel Peace Prize Awards I’ve had a very good year.  Starting with two entries in the “SAGE Encyclopedia of War – Social Science Edition” released online October 12, 2016.  That event pushed my Academic.edu viewings overseas into orbit with about three times as much response internationally in the year since then while interest domestically in the United States stayed about the same as before.  In addition, downloads set new records five times this last year.  The encyclopedia articles boosted downloads to new levels far in excess of the previous record of 34 for “Summary”.   The “SAGE Political Economy of War” reached 50 downloads after the October release.  “Military Economy Direct 11” reached 56 downloads after the March release followed by “Dear Future US President” with 87 after the May release, then “History of Gary Gygax and War Economy” released in June had 129 downloads, and finally “Military Complete Geography” released in August has just reached 159 downloads.  That’s five new records in one year.  My work has just hit a new level of growing international acceptance this year, setting those new records in downloads.  There are a variety of other surprises on my websites and in the news that give me encouragement.

Academia Recommendation

My “SAGE Military Keynesianism” encyclopedia entry was RECOMMENDED by Professor Aruwa, Suleiman A.S. on January 12, 2017.  The good professor was once the Finance Minister in the Nigerian Government and has over ONE MILLION VIEWS of his Academia.edu website.  He has 22 books and 59 papers on his website.  He is in the top 0.5% on Academia with an author rank of 1.5.  Thanks to his recommendation I now have an author rank of 1.1 and on a twelve month basis I’m now in the top 0.8% for my annual views and top 2% on monthly views.  My total downloads this year of 495 include the 173 in the last month, mostly 158 from “Military Complete Geography.”

Norwegian Nobel Committee

Viewing the last twenty-four releases in a row just occurred about 2:30pm September 23, 2017,  Oslo Norway time.  This is probably the Nobel Committee because the last time that long a streak of consecutive views happened was at 9am Norwegian time the day after nominations closed in 2016.  This year one of my nominators received an acknowledgement from the committee last Spring 2017.  So Jim Murphy’s ranking my chances as 31st is probably an underestimate of my chances.  I’m on a list of 1500 peacemakers all time, online, that includes Barack Obama born one year later according to the list.  It mentions my “Dr. Peace” name and my attendance and presentation at the one hundred year anniversary of the Hague Peace Conference in 1999.  It does not include the many peace and international groups I’ve been involved with over the years, see my Resume paper.

Hurricane and Volcano Cycle Evidence

Giant Indonesian Bali volcano Agung, category 5 volcano in 1963 is predicted to erupt any day now for the first time in 54 years, a perfect fit for the 54 year cycle.  Just in the last month, two category 4 hurricanes landed in the United States for the first time in 166 years, since 1851, which is three 54 year cycles plus 4 years.  Jacksonville Florida had record flooding this year exceeding the old record in 1846, three 54 year cycles plus nine years.  Puerto Rico hit by category five hurricane Maria exceeds the 1928 hurricane that last hit Puerto Rico, a third hurricane of category four plus hitting the United States territory this year.  This is an 81 year fit of three 27 year cycles, missing by 8 years.

Other Highlights This Year

Presenting at the Telos Institute for the first time this last January was a highlight as the main speaker took great interest in my work.  Then getting back to my wargaming roots after 43 years since I attended the first seven Gen Con conventions.  I had not seen my old friend Gary Gygax since the first year of his Dungeons and Dragons sales.  I saw his son Ernest Gygax at the ninth Gary Con in Lake Geneva after his death.  His son told me he talked about me all the time.  We were two leading lights in the International Federation of Wargaming from 1966 to 1974, where he constantly and I occasionally published.  I was the top rated player in the IFW and beat Gary in the only game ever directly between us.  I played a prototype of D & D on the porch of Gary’s home once.  Then as I moved West, he offered to sell my old games at the convention for a couple years.  That was the last we corresponded, as I got into graduate school and then politics 2000 miles away.  When I returned 43 years later, I found out I was a Legend of Wargaming, included in the book “Playing the Game” by Jon Peterson.  Then I found out my niece was at Gen Con 50 also.  It’s been very emotional.  I was finally allowed to present at the UW Madison Chaos Seminar on August 22 about my empire theory.  The reception was warm and many were very interested with many questions that feed into my personal strength, answering questions.

Summary

Strange pattern on my website might indicate Nobel is double checking me out right now, Saturday afternoon 9-23-17 about 2pm Oslo time, and Monday evening 9-25-17 between 8pm and midnight, someone(s) read all 24 press releases since last Christmas.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee reportedly chooses in August according to Jim Murphy, announces October 6 Friday.  Since both days are the same 24 in a row, it’s hard to imagine that as anything but a double check by two of the five Norwegian politicians that make the decision. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday 6 October, 11:00 a.m. Norway time (4am Madison time CDT).

For more information about the Nobel Peace Prize journey:

https://www.academia.edu/31102462/BIOGRAPHY_for_Nobel_Peace_Prize_2013-2017_23_p

For more information about my Main Ideas:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, October 1). “Nobel Peace Year Highlights”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Nobel-Peace-Year-Highlights-Robert-Reuschlein,2017129985.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Three Cycles or Just One

When I coined the title of my Radio for Peace International course “Weather, Wealth, and Wars” it was just a cute way of saying there are not three separate 54 year cycles, there is just one cycle with several different manifestations in the natural world, the economic world, and the political and war world.  Convinced that it was idiotic to consider them separate, I began looking for the connecting mechanisms and found them over a long period of time, with trial and error. But I still was stuck in the old logic of analyzing the three worlds separately.  What if you look at the system as a whole and look at these interconnections holistically?  At first I thought the Earth system created by differing evaporation rates over land and ocean was the main driver of it all, we are creatures of our planet.  Sure enough, after trying agriculture as the link and finding that doesn’t work well, I remembered some studies and personal experiences with heat that showed how heat can reduce productivity.  That turned out to fit a variety of cases and circumstances and appears to be the right connection.  Then economics seems to be the right fit for explaining the timing of major wars, again in a variety of ways.  But along came the finding of cold years (sometimes months and days) correlating with wars beginning.  That seemed a bridge too far for me.  Yet it was there, and evidence for it exists.  But the mechanism?  I just don’t know, I’m only partially sold on that concept.  I’d rather downplay that whole idea.  But yet…..well, maybe.

How Do Human Beings Work

For all our rationalizations and reasoning, we are really very fragile creations.  Emotions often get the better of our reasoning side.  For all our ability to “work around” and solve seemingly impossible problems, we are very much trapped by our environment.  Physically we build walls and roads all over the place to separate ourselves from our environment.  Housing is considered a basic need, as is privacy.  Constantly pumping in sound to a cell is a form of torture and can drive a person crazy just as much as complete isolation can.  We are delicate, impacted by many things.  We can overwork ourselves to the point of sickness and exhaustion.  The craziness of the president’s tweets may be a result of perpetual five hour a night sleep deprivation.  Balance is the key to happiness and success.  Sudden changes in our atmospherics, new trends, and sudden deepening of old trends may have consequences.  Those on the top of the food chain may feel the new trends and adjustments especially well having a whole populace to channel the new state of being up to a focus.

Junctures and Consequences

Great stress is put on the Earth each time the shift occurs from relative warming trend to relative cooling trend.  The land and ocean are in titanic struggle.  So some events of the 54 year cycle are every 27 year events.  Then there is another paradox of the long cycle; that every other 54 year long cycle comes and goes over a land dominated Northern Hemisphere dominated cycle or an ocean dominated Southern Hemisphere cycle.  This shows up in the temperature record clearly by whether the Northern or Southern Hemisphere is warmer in a given year.  So while the land heats and cools over a 54 year cycle, the ocean seems to follow a much longer 108 year cycle.  With the Earth about two thirds ocean (71% actually) and one third land (29% actually) this seems to make some rough sense out of the pattern.  Land seems to be three times as volatile and subject to warming as ocean for several reasons.  The huge tendency of solar radiation to vaporize water is satisfied easily over ocean and with difficulty over land and especially difficult over desert.  This shows up in large scale with the heavily landed Northern Hemisphere having three times the seasonal temperature variation as the heavily oceanic Southern Hemisphere.  Heat slows people down in the tropics and in the summer.  Cool refreshes and energizes for higher productivity.

Historical Turning Points

Lets look at the natural, economic, and war turning points fifty four years ago.  Multi year averages are best for determining turning points out of a rough set of data like economic growth by year and temperature by year for the last hundred plus years.  For both economics and temperature, the American picture is clear.  For economic growth the high points are 1898, 1952, and 2006; the low points are 1928, 1982, and 2036.  The temperature relative to trend low is 1913, 1967, and 2021; the high 1940 and 1994.  So the cooling trend from 1940 to 1967 is the high growth era peaking in 1952.  At the end of this era is the natural dominance of the land heavy Northern Hemisphere that began with the 1921 heat wave, lead to peak heat in the Great Depression thirties, then cools and continues until 1968.  In 1969 the oceanic Southern Hemisphere suddenly becomes the hotter Hemisphere until 2028.  The economy starts cooling off and the politics changes drastically on exactly this timetable.  Around the globe 1968 is a year of student riots in France and America, and Cultural Revolution in China.  Then 1969 almost has a superpower war between the communist giants China and Russia, except that the nuclear bomb and cooler heads prevail as they did in the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.  1970 is the thousand year average year of a major war breaking out in the 54 year war cycle.  The political pendulum swings in America from the 1932 to 1968 dominance of Democratic liberal spending presidents to the dominance of conservative presidencies starting with Nixon Reagan and the Bushes.  Each period has its exceptions that prove the rule, moderate Republican Eisenhower in the first period and conservative Southern Democrats Carter and Clinton in the second period.  The new Republican political economy of austerity fits the economic down cycle.  Launched by the 1971 Louis Powell memo that reacts to liberal dominance with a bevy of new 70’s conservative think tanks, Heritage, ALEC, CATO, to add to the 1942 Bradley Foundation.  All these in the wake of the Vietnam War defeat with its reduced military spending.  The reaction is to gin up a reason to raise military spending. George Bush uses the CIA creating a B team estimate of Soviet military spending based on American prices.  Soviet hardware overpriced creates the illusion that 80% of Soviet spending is on hardware, not the traditional massive Russian conscript army.  With this fictitious doubling of Soviet military spending, the public is lured into an arms race military increase under Reagan. Beginning in 1981, with the biggest peacetime military increase in American history, the economy is initially depressed in 1982, by switching from manufacturing to military.  This was funded by a massive 70% tax cut for the top1% along with a 15% cut for the middle class, propping up the economy with classic warlike deficit spending.  Along with firing the PATCO aircraft controllers and gutting regulations protecting unions, this begins the long forty year freeze of wage increases for the middle class.  This leads to a militaristic medieval like society of lords and serfs.  This is coupled with an influx of third world elites, businesspeople, engineers, doctors, and lawyers with their elite conservative lack of concern for the third world masses.  This pushes society deeper into a state of empire and empire social decay.

Summary

Empire military increases and temperature increases combine to send America into a middle class decline as conservative political forces fueled by military spending reinforce the pattern of decline across the board, except for the elites and military industry:  https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt._29_slide_5_p._2017

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 17). “Three Cycles or Just One”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Three-Cycles-or-Just-One-Robert-Reuschlein,2017119675.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Hurricane Planet Dynamics

Back to back major hurricanes like Harvey and Irma is a sure sign of warmer oceans thanks to the dramatic escalation of global warming since 1973.  Why do I say since 1973?  That’s the last year of the 1910-1973 cycle as shown by three perfectly straight line of 55 year moving average global warming temperatures since 1850.  That straight line with a 1 Fahrenheit/century slope was correlated at .998, and then the next cycle of 1974 to 2025 first ten years was correlated .997 with a 2 Fahrenheit/century slope.  Before 1910 was no slope and after 2025 is anybody’s guess, perhaps 3 Fahrenheit/century slope.  The central year of the most modern 55 year moving average was, at that time, 1983 for the 55 years from 1956 to 2010.  What does “at that time” mean?  It means the time of my July 20, 2013 speech to the World Future Society meeting in Chicago that year.  What happened was that everyone in the front row (about 6 or 8 people out of 50 in attendance) rose in unison to take a cell-phone snapshot of my key temperature slide.  What had triggered my investigation was Hurricane Sandy hitting New York 52 years after the last flooding of the battery in Manhattan, New York in 1960.  I decided to test the 55 year cycle relative peak La Place transform result of Klyashtorin (2001 Rome) work over 1420 years of Greenland ice core measurements and it worked out brilliantly.

How Does the Planetary System Work?

Like clockwork is the first answer, with a certain amount of noise, just like the seasons and the sunrises, with precision underlying all three phenomena.  Red sky in morning, sailors take warning, red sky at night, sailors delight.  Where does it come from?  Evaporation differences over land and sea.  What I mean by that is that most solar energy landing on the surface of the Earth is used to vaporize water.  But there is much water in the ocean and much less water over land.  So there is more solar energy left over to warm things up over land than over water.  So land seems to warm up about three times as fast as ocean overall on planet Earth.  So other than the frozen ice covered land over Antarctica, there is about three times as much land in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere.  This then tends to explain why the seasonal extreme temperature months of January and July are three times as far apart in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere.  So it takes a long time to even this energy balance out on planet Earth.  It takes 27 years of heating for the land to get so overheated with major droughts that the ocean starts with major floods to begin taking the next 27 years bringing things back into balance.  So the 1917 temperature bottom takes 27 years to reach the temperature top in 1944.  The next bottom in 1971 is unclear as 1964 and 1976 look more like bottoms, although the year 1971 tries to form a bottom.  Then the next top in 1998 is clearly 54 years after the 1944 top.

More Patterns

Great stress is put on the Earth each time the shift occurs from relative warming trend to relative cooling trend.  The land and ocean are in titanic struggle.  So some events of the 54 year cycle are every 27 year events.  Then there is another paradox of the long cycle; that every other 54 year long cycle comes and goes over a land dominated Northern Hemisphere dominated cycle or an ocean dominated Southern Hemisphere cycle.  This shows up in the temperature record clearly by whether the Northern or Southern Hemisphere is warmer in a given year.  So while the land heats and cools over a 54 year cycle, the ocean seems to follow a much longer 108 year cycle.  With the Earth about two thirds ocean (71% actually) and one third land (29% actually) this seems to make some rough sense out of the pattern.  So the strong mid century warming of the 20th century comes in the midst of the 48 years 1921 to 1968 when the Northern Hemisphere is hotter 45 of those years.  The Southern Hemisphere is hotter 45 of the 60 years from 1861 to 1920.  Both temperature dominant patterns show brief reversals in the middle of the dominant patterns, as these long term patterns show minor ebbs and flows along the way.  More graphs and details are shown in my 1991 paper “Natural Global Warming” posted to my academia.edu website.

Major Miami Hurricanes Last Hundred Years

Major Miami hurricanes were 1935, 1965, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and now Irma in 2017.  These illustrate the every 27 year change nature of the 54 year cycle.  If the 1965 and 1992 events are a perfect 27 years apart, the 1935 event is three years early and the 2017 event is two years early.  Or looking at the average, 30+27+25 divided by three is 27.3 years.  Another view would be the two sets of 54 year cycles 1935 to 1992, 57 years, and 1965 to 2017, 52 years.  Then that average would be 54.5 years.  One could argue the Miami connection, but no one could argue the South Florida connections of these four events.  One could note that the first two were in the Northern Hemisphere phase, a land oriented phase, hence farther apart.  Then the second two were in the oceanic Southern Hemisphere phase and closer together.  This shows how oceanic phase events differ from land phase events.  Likewise the droughts and floods.  The US had two Major interior droughts in the land phase (1934, 1936) and one in the ocean phase (1988).  But also the oceanic phase had major regional droughts in coastal states, 1985 to 1991 seven year droughts in Florida, Georgia, and California.  As for the major Mississippi floods, one in the land phase in 1938 (discounting the 1927 flood as pre-human intervention) and two in the oceanic phase 1993 and 1995.  The major droughts were 52 and 54 years apart and the major floods were 55 and 57 years apart.  Perhaps the cycle length shrunk for the droughts because the intervening years were 63% (34/54) land phase years and the cycle extended somewhat for the floods because the intervening years were 47% (27/57) ocean phase years.

Summary

Yes, the world temperature cycle exists; yes it works best globally, nearly as well for the US, but very well regionally as well.  My temperature graph slide and 56 event charts were posted on my academia.edu website in 2013 and are included at the end of this general paper about the weather cycle:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5p. from_1997_9p. 2014

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 10). “Hurricane Planet Dynamics”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Hurricane-Planet-Dynamics,2017119532.aspx

Addenda

Jacksonville flood was the worst since 1846, that’s 171 year ago, three 54 year cycles would be 162 years, so that is a 9 year miss.  The last time two category 4 hurricanes hit the US in the same year was 1851, that’s 166 years ago, three 54 year cycles would be 162 years, so that is a 4 year miss.

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Teaching Peace Economics

People wonder why I criticize exactly the people I need on my side.  It’s because I’m not writing for them, my academic colleagues, I’m writing for history.  In the course of time, even though many of them rightly consider themselves great for their disciplines or great among their colleagues, most of them will be long forgotten one hundred years from now.  I’m different.  My work is so unique many fail to understand it.  I will be remembered one hundred years from now, probably better posthumously than now.  I have found scientific bedrock in two fields, economics and climate.  Because I’m an outsider to those fields, a talented mathematician, wargamer, and politician in that order, I consider my best chance for a Nobel Prize is in the political field of Peace.  I consider that I have a very good chance of becoming the first to win three Nobel Prizes, in Peace, Economics, and Physics.  People want to pigeon-hole me into one area or another without seeing the essential interconnectedness of it all.  My achievement would not have been possible without my thorough intuitive understanding of mathematics in a real world context.  A mathematician and wargamer with depth in politics is what it took to find the answers in fields long thought to be imprecise in the aggregate.  My frustrations and situation sound a lot like those of Galileo trying to awaken the world to the Copernican Revolution in astronomy to me.  Try telling today’s economists that military spending and temperature trends are the two biggest impediments to economic growth.  They’d be rolling in the aisles with laughter.

Living with Thomas Kuhn’s Insights

When Thomas Kuhn wrote “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” he gave me the guideposts to understanding the resistance of those in the world around me when I came out with my first strong findings in my short book “Peace Economics” in 1986.  Days ago I attended a memorial service of another somewhat reclusively shy academic, Warren Hagstrom, a Sociology Professor at UW Madison, either the first or second ranked such school program in the world (Berkeley is the rival).  On the cover of his memorial service brochure is this John Maynard Keynes quote “The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”  Indeed.  Lately I’ve come to realize the mistake of starting with World War II in my 2010 forty minute video and 24 page accompanying pamphlet on Peace Economics.  Challenging Military Keynesianism by starting with that war is to challenge the most deeply held belief in America, the notion that the war brought us out of the Great Depression.  I have lost several potential allies over that issue (initials GF, FG, and MP).  I should have started slowly and built to such a conclusion ever so gradually.  It’s like when I discovered most people reading the 48 page paperback version of Peace Economics stopped one third of the way through.  Or like the discovery that conservatives instantly want to turn a Peace Economics discussion into a discussion of the merits of war versus peace, instantly stereotyping me as some naïve hippy fool peacenic.  My solution to that problem was to call my website and nineties book Real Economy.  That is when I realized the manufacturing economy was being sacrificed on the military altar.  That further lead to the political insight that the Great Lakes region industrial states were the ones most imperiled by militarism, collapsing with military buildups like the eighties and after 9-11-01 (the aughts?), and prospering with military builddowns like the sixties, seventies, and nineties.

Stunning New Insights of my Life (Math, Political Economy, Peace)

Born the day after my mother’s mother’s funeral, I was traumatized for many years over the mixed messages of grief and love I received from mom in that first year.  It took a couple decades of therapy to figure that out.  My mother was told by a doctor when I was four that I might be retarded.  My grandfather then wrote a poem about me “My Bobby boy, why to you have that somber eye?”  Not until I got an arithmetic test back in the third grade with 100 on it did I begin to realize I was a person of worth.  That was my first ever positive feedback from school.  Math saved my life as it slowly pulled up all my grades over the years, peaking in the high school college wargaming years of math genius turned top wargamer turned top engineer.  Math was the first great insight of my life.  Gary Gygax was my first role model.  Second great insight was to intern in the 1981 Oregon Legislative session.  Nothing but the best of testimony on any given subject, I learned the basics of economic development in the desperate times of the state of Oregon having the highest unemployment rate in the nation and living in the poorest precinct neighborhood in Eugene Oregon ranked last of 378 cities by Rand McNally in 1982.  I learned first hand how the realities of politics were far different than the perception.  Third great insight was the national peace movement list-serves from 2001 to 2005 as a leading member of the Madison Area Peace Coalition, a great lesson in learning about how the military industrial complex really operates and functions, again quite different than the common perceptions.  A fourth great insight lies in the unexpectedly hostile reaction in 2014 by some leading academics of peace and justice, hostile to me personally and to my work.  Although many are keenly interested in my writings and many have very positive reactions to it all, I live the Thomas Kuhn reality of difficulty overcoming pre-existing notions with new insights and awareness.  I live all the time with the John Maynard Keynes corrected quote “The difficulty lays not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”

Resistance to New Ideas

Just as I have been encouraged by Gary Gygax (gaming), Sister Ralph (calculus), Lyman G. Hill, XIII (54 year cycle), Herald Bock and Jerry Rust (politics), Gene Emge (teaching), Peter Bergel (writing), I have been discouraged by others.  Just as my ideas were nourished and flourished in the University of Oregon Eugene political environment up through 1993, I have been generally under-rated and under-appreciated by the Madison Wisconsin University of Wisconsin establishment since then.  There are plenty of exceptions to this broad generalization both ways.  Ageism may play a role, as well as general status difference of an up and coming politician in the eighties in the growing West Coast, versus just another older activist in the stagnant Mid West.

You would think that peace academics would mostly praise and follow up on my extensive work against the military industrial complex, and many do.  Cyber bullying is when a group collectively attacks one person.  Some think three postings a month is too much and use the following words against me:  arrogant, combative, your websites do not meet the threshold I make my students use to write research papers, bragging, claiming to have invented, understanding economics is found in law and ethics not in mathematics, clueless, self-aggrandizement, arrogant self promotion, have you considered running for President, do you ever study nonviolence?, abuse of this list, cherry picking, spamming.

Others say much kinder things:  terrific piece, I’m just saying we ought to all be talking about population and scarce resources a bit more than we do, thank you for your thoughtful and sobering thoughts on selling peace, thanks for getting me back into the loop, so keep up the good work and know that there are people out there who are grateful for your work, you have allies who would agree with you completely, I too think you offer useful insights and support on important issues like the economy and militarism, I appreciate being on your list and enjoy your questions and how you think things through.

I have been amazed at the insularity of many forums at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.  Your status at the University is much more important than your ideas for most of them.  This stands in sharp contrast to places like Oxford or Cambridge where independent scholars are most welcome and appreciated at their numerous forums.

Summary

No new idea is birthed without great difficulty and resistance, and paradigm shifts are often falsely seen as more of the same by some.  Even the new movie “The Distinguished Citizen” has come out showing the difficulties a Nobel Prize winner in Literature experiences in his own home town.  You can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs.  The idea that “if you build a better mousetrap the world will beat a path to your door” doesn’t work without marketing.  Some will complain about self promotion while tolerating it from others on the same list-serve, but actually my several postings about the Nobel Prize quest are very popular on my websites and some complain there is not enough information about myself.  You can never satisfy everyone.

Yes, it pays to read and re-read Thomas Kuhn on Structure of Scientific Revolutions and 10 quotes from that work are included as the seventh and last page of this summary of my main ideas:  https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 4). “Teaching Peace Economics” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Teaching-Peace-Economics,2017119399.aspx

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Texas Hurricane “Harvey”

Harvey on August 25th is the first category four hurricane to hit Texas in the 56 years since Carla on September 11th in 1961.  When the oceanic 27 year half cycle phase of the 54 year Kondratiev cycle comes along, you have to expect repetitive big hurricanes will come along with it.  In American economic and temperature cycle terms the period is 1994 to 2021.  Like its predecessor period, 1940 to 1967, it is a high economic growth cooling temperature period.  In World temperature cycle terms it is 1998 to 2025.  The world predecessor period is 1944 to 1971, with each period starting with a peak temperature above the long term trend line and ending with a trough temperature below the long term trending line.  Ironically, thanks to the new Greenhouse Effect trend line, this period will look like the stable period one quarter century from now in terms of land and the economy, but anything but stable in terms of hurricanes.

Great Hurricane Modern History

The first press releases of this four year press release campaign were about the great Typhoon Haiyan hitting the Philippines in 2013.  This was exactly 54 years after “The 1959 Pacific typhoon season that was regarded as one of the most devastating years for Pacific typhoons on record, with China, Japan and the Philippines sustaining catastrophic losses, (from Wikipedia).”  “One top ten list of Philippines Typhoons has nine of them 1973 or more recent, all during the age of the current strong increase in global warming of the seventies, eighties, and nineties.  Only one other made the top ten, the 1958 typhoon Rita, the only one from the relatively cool fifties and sixties or the twenty year period 1952-1972.  That one is 55 years ago from today’s devastating Typhoon Haiyan suggesting it fits the 55 year cycle discovered by Klyashtorin.”  “Hurricane Sandy of 2012 was the next time the battery in New York flooded after the 1960 event 52 years before.”  “Not included in the above is Hurricane Hugo that dumped 12 inches of rain on North Carolina in September 1989, just 55 years after the last 12 inch North Carolina month of September in 1934.”  These last four quotes are from my November 12, 2013 press release immediately after Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines.  From Wikipedia:  “On making landfall, Haiyan devastated portions of Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines. It is the deadliest Philippine typhoon on record, killing at least 6,300 people in that country alone. In terms of JTWC-estimated 1-minute sustained winds, Haiyan is the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on record.”

Great American Hurricanes

In  2004 PBS broadcast a special suggesting four great tragedies waiting to happen in the United States.  One was a San Francisco earthquake, one was an EF5 tornado hitting Dallas, one was a hurricane hitting New Orleans and the last was a hurricane hitting New York. Those four events have now happened, except that the scale is lower for the San Francisco and Dallas cases.  The EF4 tornado over Dallas suburb Garland on December 26, 2015 was tracking for the downtown Dallas when it lifted.  The F5 over Fort Worth in 1957 is the big one for modern times, suggesting a 58 year cycle.  The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 was easily the most devastating in US history, with the follow-up 83 year later in San Jose much weaker, and the follow-up 108 years later in the Napa Valley weaker still.  108 years is a perfect fit being two 54 year cycles later, 83 is two years off from the three half cycle trend changes perfect of 81 years.

New Orleans had hurricanes in 1893 (2000 deaths) and 1947, 54 year apart, then Katrina (1500 deaths) came four years late in 2005, 58 years later.  Hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012 famously just before the presidential election and two years early after the Battery last flooded 52 years before in 1960.

Texas Hurricanes Harvey and Carla

            Harvey, 56 years after Carla in 1961 is only two years late from a perfect cycle, these are the most recent two category four hurricanes to land on Texas.  Carla was once a CAT 5 but diminished just before landing and quickly dropped to tropical storm level the next day.  Harvey threatens to persist for a week and dump 52 inches of rain over time on Houston, potentially much more devastating, as water is usually more devastating in a hurricane than wind.  This could be worse than Katrina or Sandy in overall impact.  This rainfall greatly exceeded the Hugo levels in 1989 in North Carolina, where 12 inches of rain matches the monthly rainfall total of September 1934 in North Carolina, the same month 55 years before.  That was the first major hurricane after the discovery that the American droughts of 1934 and 1936 were repeating in 1988, starting my whole research effort into the causes of the 54 year cycle.

Summary

Yes, the world temperature cycle exists, yes it works best globally, nearly as well for the US, but very well regionally as well.  My 56 event chart was posted on my academia.edu website in 2013 and included at the end of this general paper about the weather cycle:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5p. from_1997_9p. 2014

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, August 27). “Texas Hurricane ‘Harvey’.” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Texas-Hurricane-Harvey,2017119240.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Middle Year Empire Update

Making a big impression wherever I go has become standard fare for me now.  Resistance or passive resistance from some social science types has also become standard for me.  The social science view of the scientific method is quite different than the hard science view.  Fortunately the overall tide of acceptance has steadily gained strength, especially this year.  Thomas Kuhn, in his Structure of Scientific Revolutions would expect as much.

Liberal Arts Prejudice Against Professional Schools

The ivory tower concept can apply to all academic schools to some extent.  But it is especially true for the academics in the social sciences, who deeply resent the higher pay earned in professional schools like business, engineering, law and medicine.  When they have control of campus wide awards systems, they may systematically exclude academics from the professional schools from those awards.  As an undergraduate, I experienced this exclusion from the Phi Beta Kappa honors fraternity and as an engineer had to settle for the Phi Kappa Phi all university “equivalent” with a “separate but equal” feel to it, not unlike racial discrimination may have felt a century ago.  While blacks have made great strides, women still face glass ceilings in many academic settings.  A woman who got more votes than Obama in the 2008 primaries and more votes than Trump in the 2016 general election is still not president, because of the caucus system in the first case and the electoral college in the second case.  Recent attempts to eliminate memory of the first black presidency and his legacy show how far we still have to go in racial matters.

Peace and Justice

So after years of making presentations at the Peace and Justice Studies Association I am suddenly excluded in 2016 after supporting an “unpopular” woman presidential candidate on the list-serve and being attacked on the discussion list once for using the word “stupid” defending myself against a slur by “one of their own” against me, and another time by someone posting “refutations” to a small part of my statement in mild support of the Democrat running against their favored Socialist candidate.  A black woman who stood up for Hillary was later hounded out of the group.  This unethical retaliation through peer review is only possible because of the distinctive nature of my work, which makes blind evaluation not possible.  That some clique calls my work unpopular and tries to limit my expression is clearly refuted by the website reaction to my 36 releases a year.  Enthusiasm for my work is growing internationally and lately among Gary Gygax fantasy gamers, recently pushing me into the top 1% on academia.edu.

My point was that the Socialist refused to call for cutting defense to fund any of his dozen proposals, each specifically paid for with specific taxes on separate links of the official website and never with defense cuts.  The Socialist candidate was anti-war on his official website but never called for defense cuts specifically.  This is a common ruse among mainstream national candidates who do not want to lose any swing states with high military spending.   Sanders himself has said on television that he did not come up with the “Feel the Bern” slogan, although he wishes he had.  In that second case, large font quotes were taken from the Sanders independent website FeeltheBern mostly against war and some against military spending, twisting my words and falsely calling me inaccurate, refusing to admit this is tantamount to calling me a liar.  Gee, thanks.  Shouting against me and then saying you did not call me a liar.  Such courage.  Later this same board member openly put down my Nobel Peace Prize nomination rather than celebrating it like a decent human being would.

Methodology

Then a second person of the threesome putting down my Nobel nomination on the list-serve accuses me of not being methodological when I describe the process of creating my pinpoint accurate sixty year model of US manufacturing productivity.  That second person disagrees with my use of continental measuring of economic activity.  This assumes the social science process of creating questions first before surveying for their answer.  That is not the physical science method of observing first before you build your hypothesis.  Precision is not expected in the social sciences because it is generally only found in the physical sciences.  That difference changes everything, including what is considered the scientific method.  Professional schools rely on more traditional scientific methods but that does not make them non-methodological. This is another example of social science bias against professional schools.  It may be that crowds and human nature are viewed as unstable in the social sciences, but in the physical sciences more leads to more stability, just as in economics, moving from the individual to the family to business to the city to the state to the nation to the continent tends to reduce inaccuracies and add clarification of results, thanks to the law of large numbers.

Science and Society

In another instance, an academic organization dedicated to science and technology studies was busily talking about the differences between cultural and socialism versions of feminism when the topic turned to Russia suddenly and I pointed out some Russian history and the group suddenly disbanded and branded me as a Trump supporter which I am not.  At the next regular meeting of the group my hand was raised and for the first time not acknowledged before the group discussion ended after a presentation.  Once again Letters and Science discriminate against an interdisciplinary individual with practical professional real world experience.  Pure high minded academics don’t want to get too close to the dirty business of politics; they just want to talk about it.

Conference in Toronto

In a history of economics conference in Toronto one month ago, I raised a question in the general session that challenged the speaker’s thoughts on religion and was thereafter banned from further questions.  Most conferences and presentations welcome my questions, but some control freak moderators occasionally try to stifle me.  My own presentation was greeted with a lack of questions from a large group of 27 people.  This was the second time I’d tried to present the whole of my accurate economics theory with a similar result.  When I feature one aspect of my theory at a time, I get great receptiveness, but when I bite off more than they can chew, I get stony looks and cool receptiveness.  It was ironic in that one of the keynote speakers went on and on about how economics is not a science, a widespread belief among economic historians, that was well received.  But when I present my tightly accurate results of the science I’ve created about economics, it is a bridge to far for them, that’s not possible they are thinking.  When I break the ideas down to digestible chunks, they usually greet the material warmly.  Once again, Thomas Kuhn would not be surprised by any of this.  Toronto has a wonderful Quaker meeting house group, a Whole Foods that acts like a cafeteria at lunchtime, and a vibrant high tech industry with the Toronto newspaper leading the way.  Baked Lays potato chips are far more delicious in Toronto than the flat shaped and flavorless variety sold in the United States.

Fields of Knowledge Addenda

Main Ideas July 2017, the link to further reading on academia.edu for this press release, consists of seven pages:

The first three pages are 8 PowerPoint frames each on three main topics:

First is “Social Decay of Empire” and Stages of Empire,

Second is “Weather Wealth and Wars” or Global Warming Cycle

Third is “Dungeons and Dragons” Origins of Gary Gygax’s Work

Fourth is “Summary” Military DisEconomics thirteen key correlations

Fifth is “Reductio Ad Absurdum” about the New Macroeconomic Model

Sixth is the “Nine Areas of Mastery” needed to build the Reuschlein Model

Seventh is “10 Scientific Revolution Facts” by Thomas Kuhn

An eleventh point by Kuhn is that an outsider or newcomer like Reuschlein is usually the person who comes up with the new paradigm.  Here is the detailed link:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted and Given Odds for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-17
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

Math: Reductio Ad Absurdum

Economists tend to say “one the one hand, on the other hand.”  A lot of people get frustrated by this overly cautious social science way of doing things.  In the math world, there is the principle of reductio ad absurdum, that if you cannot disprove a theory after you’ve tried and tested it every way you can think of, it must be true.  Or more literally, if its opposite is shown to be false, then it is true.  (See my SUMMARY paper on my academia.edu website for several other key tests besides the model building.)  Reductio Ad Absurdum is the principle that has allowed me to develop Peace Economics.  Here are the 28 steps I followed to develop the Peace Economics model of manufacturing productivity over the last eighty years of the United States economy in the twentieth century.

General Characteristics of the Model

The idea that military spending is essentially economic waste has the following characteristics.  Models are more accurate the larger the economy and the longer the time period measured.  Military spending has a place holder function in the economy, as it acts like manufacturing by distributing money to the stakeholders.  But it is unlike manufacturing because no consumer product is being produced.  This interrupts the cycle of producing, testing against the marketplace, and refining and improving a product, and giving something to the consumer.  Alternatively, military spending looks like lost capital investment.  Adding the capital investment lost in military spending tends to reach a common total among leading Western economies.  Because military spending mimics manufacturing, it correlates positively in the regional models with economic growth and employment changes.  Actually this positive correlation is misleading, because it also lowers manufacturing when military spending increases, so the positive in high military spending states is offset by the negative in low military but high manufacturing states, with a net loss overall.  That makes military spending a transfer program like social safety-net programs, which stabilizes society but does not produce a net economic benefit.  The beneficiaries of this warfare state are usually upper middle class, unlike welfare state beneficiaries who are usually lower working class.

Creating Economic Model, 28 Steps

Each of these 28 steps are followed in capital letters by one or more of the nine fields of expertise that enabled me to develop Peace Economics, as listed in my RESUME paper or Curriculum Vitae on my academia.edu website.  Then at the bottom are the total mentions of each experience of each of the nine fields.  Each of these nine fields represents a minimum of at least three full time equivalent work years.

#1 Bar chart from Ruth Sivard found, military vs. manufacturing productivity.  POLITICS

PEACE ECONOMICS

#2 Graph the bar chart.  MATH WARGAMING

#3 Correlate raw data.  MATH BUSINESS

#4 Drop one country and correlate again. WARGAMING (VISION SENSE)

#5 Weighted average three continents and correlate r = -0.997.  ACCOUNTING

#6 After perfect cross continent proof, create long term model in leading economic country, US.  MATH (TRIANGULATE)

#7 Graph economic growth rate plus military spending.  ENGINEERING (MODELING)

#8 Recognize deficits offset military spending to explain World War II.  ACCOUNTING

#9 Recognize Kondratiev Wave explains fifties.  ENGINEERING POLITICS GLOBAL WARM

#10 Recognize manufacturing productivity explains better than economic growth. BUSINESS

#11 Look to establish parameters for long term US model.  ENGINEERING

#12 Use a variety of multi year moving averages to locate peaks and troughs over time.  MATH

#13 Use formula given by a friend when peak to trough and trough to peak matches that formula. POLITICS ENGINEERING GLOBAL WARMING

#14 Know that the answer to all differential equations is a sine wave.  MATH ENGINEERING

#15 Compute amplitude sine wave using peak and trough of economic growth.  ACCOUNTING

#16 Compute values each year and compare to actual values. ACCOUNTING ENGINEERING

#17 When annual comparisons show differences, compute running total of variations over time. ACCOUNTING SCIENCE

#18 Note that running total approaches zero periodically.  ACCOUNTING MATH ENGINEERING SCIENCE

#19 Consult Encyclopedia Britannica on economic cycles.  BUSINESS

#20 Note periodic perfection of running total error follows Juglar 8 to 10 year cycle.  BUSINESS

#21 Note that model drops to 7.0 lower rate during Great Depression.  ENGINEERING

#22 Note that model drops 3.7 lower rate during seventies Oil Crisis.  ENGINEERING

#23 Note that down periods perfect out at lower level every three years or so. BUSINESS

#24 Note that down periods just return to normal after about a decade. WARGAMING

#25 Note that starting period 1920 to 1922 requires using a three year average for the 1921 year ACCOUNTING ENGINEERING MATH

#26 Note that 1939 to 1947 data gap fills smoothly with no productivity gain for the four war years and average productivity assumed for the years 1940, 1941, and 1946.  ENGINEERING

#27 Note the linear reduction in total model volatility in six successive Juglar cycles from the twenties to the eighties.  ACCOUNTING SCIENCE

#28 Note model extended for another thirteen years with similar accuracy r = .999.  SCIENCE

Fields of Knowledge

Fields of knowledge used at each stage of these 28 development steps, ranked ordered by steps depending on that knowledge:

ENGINEERING 11, ACCOUNTING 8, MATH 7, BUSINESS 5, SCIENCE 4,

POLITICS 3, WARGAMING 3, GLOBAL WARMING 2, PEACE ECONOMICS 2

The top three, engineering, accounting, and math are mentioned 26 times, while the bottom six are mentioned only 19 times.  Clearly my engineering accounting and math skills are more important than economic skills to produce this model.  I had to drop out of a Ph.D. Economics program because they were taking me down the wrong path in spite of recognizing my major points.  I consider my engineering degree my most challenging degree, with accounting second, both far more difficult than an economics degree.  Politics was essential with an exposure to the social sciences and a broad liberal education coming from that pursuit, and with the two most crucial pieces of the puzzle coming from that exposure.

Conclusion

The proofs of this model are so many and so detailed, that it is impossible to imagine some other true model coming along to take its place.  The dead end nature of military economics, the lift from borrowing provided by deficits (in the economy of the nation whose currency is used as a reserve currency for two thirds of banking worldwide), the 54 year cycle and the nine year cycle are all conclusively embedded in the super accurate model created.  Take any of those elements out of the model, and you can continue the ambiguity of all other economic models of the past and present.  Or you can recognize that economics has just moved a step closer to being a real science, like the physical sciences.

Full eleven page explanation of this model including numbers used:  PEACE ECONOMICS

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted and Given Odds for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-17
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

Wargamer to Peace Economist

Looking back over my life, asking how I got to this point of nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, I have to consider my Avalon Hill wargame experience crucial.

Math and Games

I started with things like Erector sets, Lincoln logs, American bricks, and just blocks.  But there were four siblings and we played board games together a lot, like Careers, Monopoly, Risk, and many others.  I fell in love with two things early on, Games and Math.  Getting encyclopedias when I was seven, and later the Time Life book on Mathematics really got me going.  I loved the way that math book showed all 36 possible combinations of two dice, one in red and one in green.  Dice became the passion that united my two great interests, games and math.  I went on to play games on Democracy, Summit, and standards like Checkers, Chess, and Go.  You name it; I’d try it and be good at it.  But they were all too simple until my older brother and I discovered the Avalon Hill game Chancellorsville in 1961.  We also tried Tactic II, Gettysburg, and D-Day, and I never let him win.  So I needed a new challenge and along came the Avalon Hill General magazine in December 1964.  That was my freshman year moving from five frustrating years in the public schools to a Catholic High School.  That was the last semester in high school I had anything less than an A in math or science.  This was decades before the grade inflation of today, and I was top of my math classes the rest of the time in high school.  I found opponents wanted in the General from other high schools and UW Madison and for the next ten years spent about three times a week, fifteen hours a week, in wargames.  I was a master at the math and probabilities and also the rules, and these two, rules and math, were my edge.  I loved the maps and terrain and playing counters and movement just as well.  Soon I was inventing new rules, new games, and reinventing math before being taught it in the Trapezoidal Rule, the Pythagorean Theorem, and the Binomial Expansion Theorem.  Endless imagination and experimentation became the norms of my life.

Technician in Society

I became a great Nerd.  But humans are social animals, too, and I was a lonely boy who needed a social life.  Opponents Wanted ads and a genius wargamer 90 miles to my Southeast came to the rescue.  No one wrote more articles for wargaming magazines than Gary Gygax, inventing and imagining all the things you can do with wargames.  This local role model noticed me and invited me into his new wargaming club, the International Federation of Wargaming.  I started writing articles too, and inventing games, and starting a wargaming convention in Madison the year after his convention in Lake Geneva.  I attended the first seven GenCons from 1968 to 1974 inclusive, winning Waterloo and tying Afrika Corp the first two Avalon Hill wargames tournaments in 1973 and 1974..  Then I gave up wargaming and Gary agreed to sell my stuff on consignment the last time I saw him in 1974.  Gary welcomed me into his world and I made many trips to Lake Geneva and he came to my first wargames convention in Madison in June 1969.  I had learned the social skills of being a wargaming organizer in Madison, Wisconsin.  I learned many skills, math, games, rules, strategy, geography, military history, and organizing in those ten years of wargaming averaging 15 hours a week, three years of full time equivalent work.  That creative foundation laid the way forward for my fifteen year career in politics from 1978 to 1993 where I learned the issues, campaigning, lobbying, and creating legislation and debates, submitting the 1984 National Delegate Selection Plan for the Democratic Party of Oregon, and meeting at a high level Rainbow Coalition meeting with Jesse Jackson in Chicago in February 1987.  Everywhere I was getting great things done.  Politics is where I discovered Sivard’s work on military spending in 1983.  I discovered the Kondratiev Wave in 1981 from a close friend (Lyman G. Hill, XIII).  We were both in the YMCA Singles Association; where I was president in 1978 and group facilitator from 1978 to 1981.

Summary

These formative experiences combined the endless variety of games and the endless variety of politics into the necessary knowledges that made the Peace Economics breakthroughs possible.  In both macroeconomics and global warming theory these complex yet precise and elegant models will define how people see the coming century.  In both cases stubborn academic bureaucracies have resisted the compelling math of my discoveries.  But I have Thomas Kuhn on my side, knowing that new generations will adopt these basic discoveries and the resistant old order will eventually die off.  The new paradigms will revolutionize the stock market and predictions of the future as the naysayers and doubters are pushed to the side.  Sometime around the year 2025 the world will cool off for two or three years leading into a major war followed by global warming at a faster than ever pace and we will be prepared to mitigate these circumstances or we will blunder ahead ignorant of my discoveries.  The choice is up to each of us individually.  Collectively, if we learn, I will get my rewards.  Today my term “Peace Economics” is routinely marginalized by peace groups as just a large sum of money, seldom if ever considered a major driving force of lost opportunity in the economy, by groups like the Berlin Peace Congress last year and Code Pink this year.  Please stop using my terminology for misleading and understated purposes.  Nations and peoples rise or fall with their choice of military spending levels.

Here is the suit pocket sized booklet for the twenty-fifth anniversary of Peace Economics:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Here are a few key pages about the climate cycle ending in 2025, warned about above:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._WWW_course_9p._2014

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-2017

contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com for more info www.realeconomy.com

Telos Institute Lessons

Lessons of Three Great Conferences,  By Professor Robert Reuschlein

Asymmetrical Warfare, Telos Institute, NYU, January 14-15, 2017  

I had great success with the presentation, “Goal of Terrorists: Raising the Cost to Society” at the Telos Institute in New York University.  Asymmetric Warfare raises the cost to society of warfare.  Those in the military industrial complex believe that warfare can enhance themselves and their society.  This belief led to the Iraq War.  Those employing asymmetric warfare believe they can punish the military society’s population enough to make them give up.  This was the strategy that won the Vietnam War.  The asymmetric warrior (aka “terrorist”) believes a militaristic society will implode when enough pressure is put on them.  These so-called terrorists are even more right than they realize.  The eight years of the Reagan Military Buildup tripled the national debt (quadrupling if you add in the 4 Bush years).  The seven years of the second Bush military buildup wars led to the Great Recession, thanks to the surge in military spending in fiscal 2008 and overheated real estate markets in the corruption prone high military states.  Blowback was immediate and internal and escalates over time.  This is exactly what Osama Bin Laden wanted out of the Western response to his provocations, saying in a 2005 speech:  “So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy.”

In my empire economics speech I outlined the true cost of militarization on America, depleting our capital and research resources leading to economic and social decay, including high crime.  Empire stagnation includes the stagnation of the political process in America.  Militarization leads to the direct depletion of the manufacturing sector much faster than the more obvious and visible trade treaty losses of factories.  In the decade after 2001 terrorism has quadrupled.  Goading us into attack has been a goal of the terrorists.  I gave the keynote speaker a copy of my 24 page booklet after his opening speech; he was not impressed but politely took it.  After hearing my speech he keeps reading it while others spoke.  At the end of the conference, he approached me in the cloakroom speechless with a puppy dog look in his eyes, so I said a few words to him.  His speech could have been used for a dozen footnotes to my speech, but he knew I had the big picture down cold.  Telos Institute is a great place that welcomes new ideas, so a colleague has been encouraging me to present there for some time.  That colleague was right on, they loved me there and I fit right in.

 

Ethics and Mental Health Conference, Viterbo U., La Crosse, WI, April 6-8, 2017

The best presentation here was “Gun Deaths and Public Health: What is the Mental Health Connection?” Steve Miles, University of Minnesota Medical School.  Dr. Miles major finding is that gun ownership is proportional to gun deaths.  Handgun suicides are ten times as likely for a kid from a gun household.  You are 4.5 times more likely to be shot when carrying a gun.  Gun owners are eight times more likely to threaten murder. Gun households have four times the homicide rate, seven times the suicide rate, and sixteen times the accidental gun death rate.

This compares to my finding that murder rates and crime rates are proportional to the military spending of a developed country.  The inference is that a militarized society is more likely to murder, all kinds of murder, but suicides are not proportional to military spending.  Perhaps the more militarized portions of a military society are conversant with guns and inclined to own guns.  Are these the people with military training we are talking about?  I do not know that particular evidence, but it does seem likely that those familiar with gun use would be inclined to either join or be from the military.  Military training has advanced since the fifties into a very effective trainer of killers.  Past wars had as many as 78% of soldiers who never fired guns, and in one case a dozen musket rounds were found in a soldiers gun, so reluctant to kill other people that person was.  That changed in US military training in the fifties.

More detail at this link:

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

 

Geospatial Summit, University of Wisconsin, Madison, April 26, 2017

My presentation was videotaped by WKOW TV for a climate voices unit Greg Jeschke plans to produce in the near future.  My talk was titled “How Climate Change trends impact humans, the economy, and politics.”  Temperature studies by industrial engineers have long shown that human performance is reduced at above normal temperatures, reducing productivity on hot days.  There are at least three other sets of evidence that show this effect on economics:  geography, stock market, and US history.  The major war cycle also comes from economic cycles that come from global warming cycles.  Sharp cooling trends of two or three years duration often precede major wars, and volcanoes can trigger this process.  Economic differences expand in the high growth half of the cycle, leading to peak wealth, a new world order, and a major war about three years into the next slow half cycle.  That economic change at the end of the growth cycle may encourage politicians to look for a way to distract the public from the slowing economy with a war.

This talk explored explanations of these various linkages with temperature and climate change, showing that the three types of cycles are all linked and start with the climate changes.  Environmental determinism is in my opinion a baseless pejorative narrative to paint a rational theory as something it is not, as racist and colonialist.  The proof of this is that human performance, economic history, and the stock market are all confirming the cool improves and heat stifles narrative.  You have to ignore those three other proofs to come up with a racist and colonialist narrative that only sounds plausible in one school of thought, imperialism, not in an interdisciplinary context.  Triangulation from at least three different directions is the standard of proof I seek in all my work on these two great theories of economics and global warming.

 

Summary

These three issues are the main issues in my research.  Empire Economics is my best presentation and a version of that was used at Telos.  With military spending the prime cause, empires decay from a lack of productivity coming from the military resources.  That in turn leads to the social decay of empires, included murder rates, health problems, and lack of social mobility.  In America it is obvious that many celebrities are now sons or daughters of other celebrities, as America has traded places in the last generation or so with Europe in terms of being a class based society. Crime and corruption is strongly correlated with military spending both internationally and within the American states, including the poor mortgage practices leading up to the Great Recession.  Crime is the easily identified exemplar of the social decay of empire concept.  The right wing thinks moral decay is bringing down America, but my work supports the opposite theory, that the self inflicted wound of wasting too much military spending at the expense of manufacturing and construction economic growth sectors causes the long term rise in crime, poor health, stagnant politics, and class divergence in America.

But the key to perfecting the long term 60 year US economic model is the 54 year Kondratiev cycle.  And the key to proving the existence of that cycle is linking up the three versions of the cycle, the natural cycle, the economic cycle, and the political war cycle.  I’ve always sensed it was absurd to consider these three cycles separately.  I’m convinced that the order of those cycles is natural, economic, then political, both by the logic of the linking mechanisms and the slightly diminishing accuracy of the proving phenomena in my 56 events chart.  As always, I’m looking for multiple proofs of concept along multidisciplinary lines of seeing past the silos of isolated thinking into the broader concept of looking at events from multiple points of view to grasp the correct essence of it all.

Link to the actual Telos Institute and Geospatial Summit powerpoint slides are here:

https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt._29_slide_5_p._2017

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

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