bobreuschlein

A topnotch WordPress.com site

Archive for the tag “environment”

Reduce Military War System

Overall

The Peace Economics theory requires a whole new way of looking at national defense and national security.  The huge finding that military spending is essentially a non-productive loss of key resources normally used to increase the size of the economic growth rate means that excessive military spending can prevent a nation from keeping up vital economic strength.  Economic strength is more important to national defense and national security than military strength in the long run.  But what does that mean?  There are two key approaches.

Two Time Frames

When offense exceeds defense, as in nuclear war, quick reaction is urgent.  But because of mutually assured destruction, avoidance is the only way to really survive.  Short term military strength is necessary up to a point.  In more conventional warfare, quick success is unlikely unless one side is more than twice as strong as the other side.  There are four clear cases of the “twice as strong” economically being decisive in the World Wars.  When both sides are more equal stalemate is likely until and unless one mobilizes overwhelming forces against the other.  Then the initial military forces are not as crucial as the economic strength comparison.

How Often Wars Happen

United States, European, and Roman history is a good argument for the 54 year cycle in major war history.  There are many wars all the time, but matchups between the top two economies in an area tend to peak every 54 years.  These are the wars a national defense best needs to be prepared for, hence a long term “build the economy” strategy best prepares a nation for this point in time, with a smaller well trained military core kept going between major war events,  In this 54 year cycle, tester lopsided wars tend to happen about 18 years before the major war in America, and 15 years before the major war in Europe.

Size of Military

The larger the military, the more likely it will be used.  A large military will coopt large portions of the military political economy.  Justifications for a large military will be developed to of the maintain this large size.  War is the ultimate justification and wars will go on and on out of fear of losing, and continued funding for a war is often justified out of support for the troops.

Success in Prior Wars  

Low cost paid and success in prior wars encourages a forward leaning posture in foreign affairs.  For example, the lower the percentage of a major nation’s population dying in the last major war made America most aggressive in the early Cold War followed by Britain and then France.  For example, a bad experience in the thirty years war ending in 1648 lead to Swedish neutrality ever since.  Switzerland.s last war in 1815 was in the Napoleonic Era of mass draftee armies. The invention of the military draft lead to Europe missing a major war in the 1860s until World War One in 1914.  Joshua Goldstein’s 1986 study of European wars since 1500 shows a 50 year cycle of major wars with about 1.5% population loss.  After missing that 1860s war, war came back worse than ever with a 5% population loss in each World War.

Role of the CIA Covert Operations

Critics of America’s Covert Operations cite a long history of mistakes and policies favoring commercial interests over democratic interests.  Blowback, the tendency of such operations to boomerang on America, is perhaps best indicated by Iran.  Covert operations seem to represent over-the-top efforts that wittingly or unwittingly help perpetuate the war system.  Previous mistakes often lead to future excuses for wars.

Consequences of the War System

Social decay, crime, and especially murders are all consequences of militarism and the war system, the empire system.  Findings show that murder rates follow military spending rates among the larger developed nations.  The million murders in America in the thirty years after John Lennon’s death 12-8-80 could have been cut in half if military spending had been cut in half.  That would have saved 500,000 lives.  Indeed, something like that did happen halfway through that thirty year period, as murder rates were cut in half one decade after the Cold War ended in 1991, and US military economy rates were cut in half by the year 2000.

Defining National Security

Keeping a narrow definition of national security defined around results wars, leaves out the large number of lives that can be saved by avoiding 15,000 domestic US murders, consequences of lack of health care (35,000 deaths) and consequences of income inequality and poverty.  Excessive militarism increases murders, health care deaths, and inequality deaths vastly in excess of the 10,000 US soldiers and civilians lost in the war on terror the last 20 years.  Stifling the American dream of income increases for middle class Americans since the seventies is the deepest consequence of the de-industrialization caused by empire in American history.

For a detailed model of optimal military spending levels for a major power:

https://www.academia.edu/4475604/DEFENSE_STRATEGY_Chapter_Peace_Economics_7_p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, April 2), “Reduce Military War System”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Reduce-Military-War-System,2018155833.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Advertisements

Gun Control Students March

Movements Return on 54 Year Cycle

Millions rallied around the nation (some globally) against gun violence against schools and citizens yesterday.  Estimates of 800,000 mostly students in Washington DC March 24, 2018 compare favorably with the 1,000,000 mostly women on January 21, 2017.  These enormous rallies come 54 and 55 years after the civil rights march of August 23, 1963, with a then record 300,000 crowd.  Back then we had the great movements for civil rights, against the Vietnam War, followed by women’s and environmental rights several years after the first two.  Now we have Black Lives Matter, the Women’s counter-inaugural protest, and the Parkland Students against school mass murders.  Then a landslide election in 1964 brought in the Great Society reforms and programs, now a blue wave election in 2018, 54 years later, threatens to turn around congress 180 degrees in philosophy.  Democrats needing 23 seats to regain the majority, may gain over a hundred seats if the recent Pennsylvania special election is indicative.  It is remarkable that this repetition occurs at the same long cycle time with similar economic prosperity.

Advanced Empire Decay

Seventy Years of hollowing out the manufacturing sector to apply similar resources of capital, research, and people to military spending have weakened the US industrial economy largely replaced by the financial services economy.  Profits from the financial services industry have increased to nine times their share of the US economy in the forty years since the seventies.  Just as the New Deal momentum was in its last hurrah back then, now the Reagan conservative revolution is looking at its imminent demise.  Then the American empire was at its peak under Kennedy while now the American empire will have trouble recovering from Trump.  Ever since 1945 the memory of pre-empire Roosevelt America remained strong for many Americans until after the 1980 Reagan election.  Now many Americans do not remember what America used to be.  Prior to 1980 all Americans shared prosperity equally, with all classes doubling their income in those 35 post war years.  Now Americans in the bottom 99% have remained without meaningful wage increases while the top 1% has seen their income more than quadruple.  Thanks to the FOX News propaganda channel since 1996 and Rush Limbaugh since 1988, Americans have been uniquely misinformed about politics.  Thus despite his documented record of 2000 lies in his first year in office, Trump continues the lying, repeated by FOX news and his 24 million Twitter followers and 16 million Facebook followers, to hold on to his 35% base while turning off everyone else.  Polls show that 12% believe they are in the top 1% in income, while another 23% believe they will be in the top 1% someday.  These deluded and aspiring groups supplement the actual 1% to make up the essence of the 35% Trump Republican base.  The key Reagan deception was to sell America on his 25% tax cut plan that in fact gave a 60% tax cut to the top 1% while giving a mere 15% tax cut for the middle class.  This same four to one ratio of benefits continues in the Trump tax “reform” plan.  But thanks to the 2011 “occupy” movement, Americans now know they are being had.  They also know that 24,000 would lose their health care under the Trump Republican proposals that failed last year.  Nevertheless, 13,000 will lose their health care coverage due to the partial repeal slipped into the tax bill, with an estimated 10% increase in premiums due to that change.

Murder Rates Match Military Spending Rates

Steve Mills, who teaches medicine at the University of Minnesota, has shown that households that have a gun in the house are five times as likely to be shot to death as those in households without firearms.  My own findings show that most of the seven largest economy nations correlate strongly between military spending and murder rates, with a near perfect correlation as high as 0.996 during the last twenty years of the Cold War.  There is probably a lot of overlap between gun holding households and veterans.  One friend of mine once read a book about mass murderers and told me that they all had military backgrounds, and there are few exceptions to that pattern today.  Murder and crime rates are higher around military bases, and I learned at the 1999 hundredth anniversary Hague Peace Conference that Okinawa Japan women are often raped by US soldiers so much that the national government had to overrule the local government to keep the US base there.  Japan is a very low military low crime country.  In the fifties, the US learned how to train soldiers to kill, because over 70% of troops never fire their guns in combat in wars including World War Two, because humans are so naturally horrified about killing another human being.  78% of combat deaths in that war were due to artillery, a safely out of sight, out of mind, way to kill others.

Three Reasons Why Military and Murder are Related

There are three reasons why murder rates and military spending rates are so closely aligned.  First is the military drain on the economy, which leads to more desperate and crime prone people.  Second is the de-personalization of others that comes with dividing the world into friends and enemies.  Among the usual 2% of us with deviant behavior, this makes it easier to commit a crime against others.  If we can easily de-personalize our victims, we can then more easily commit crimes against them.  Meetings between criminals and their victims in prison therapy are often very troubling to the criminal when they see for the first time the consequences of their actions first hand in the eyes of the victims.  Third is the direct impact of training millions of people how to kill in wars.  When you have such training it is easier to escalate a fist fight in a bar into a homicide.  Just as in Shakespeare’s play MacBeth, murder is easier and easier after the first very difficult murder decision.

Guns or the Military

Guns are the easier to see as the “cause” of the mass murder problem.  Other nations have far fewer gun murders, and one comparison of murders between Canada and the US shows similar amounts of other categories of murders per capita, similar knifings, poisonings, and strangling’s, and others, while showing a big drop in gun murders.  Britain has reduced guns to the point that it has 60% less murders than would be suggested by its military rate.  But that is true also for France, Virginia, and New England, a four-some that correlate 93%, but at 60% lower than for US, Germany, Sweden, Italy, and Japan.  But this may be related to comparing 150 year old societies with 400 year old societies.  Is it the guns or the level of maturation of the society that reduces crime rates?  Crime rates in the US went down after the 1991 end of the Cold War to half their rates, just as military spending went down also in the nineties.  Some would ascribe this to abortion being legal since 1973, 18 years before 1991, but that would not explain the similar drop in crime in Western Europe.  German homicides have dropped 40% since 2000 while the US homicide rate has dropped only 20% thanks to the wars and military escalation.

For the additional “Crime and the Military” papers and graph on my academia.edu website:

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 26), “Gun Control Students March”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Gun-Control-Students-March,2018155580.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Interdisciplinary Shutdowns

Just as in politics it takes a lot of different points of view to come up with a good compromise, in academics and many other professions multiple views are crucial.  In my dissertation, I discovered the average Midwest US College with a peace studies program had ten interdisciplinary programs.  Much lip service is given to interdisciplinary work; but most colleges still reward tenure based on the narrow needs of the discipline the academic comes from or is housed in.  One device to overcome this problem is to give interdisciplinary programs a voice on tenure decisions.  It would be good if all the interdisciplinary programs were represented by a department of interdisciplinary programs or a dean of interdisciplinary programs.  Some examples of the benefits of interdisciplinary thinking follow.

Religions Example

In my younger years I experimented with five difference religions.  This gave me much greater perspective on the common practice of prayer.  I was once practicing my Buddhist chanting when I compared notes with my landlady’s saying of the rosary.  The benefits were remarkably similar.  Then it struck me that meditation, prayer, chanting were all similar practices and mental disciplines with similar benefits.  Having multiple religious views allows one to better comprehend the great truths about ourselves and humanity such as the golden rule, found in all religions.

Physics Example

Locating a point in three-dimensional Euclidean space requires triangulation.  Even our eyes work this way, as two eyes allow depth perception estimates of how far away things are.  Likewise, in space, two observatories or measurements of one observatory taken from different parts of earth’s orbit over time can determine the distance of an object far away in space.

Peace Studies Example

Like the historians who think biography is history, my peace studies colleagues too often believe in individual efforts and personal change are the keys to peace, and too often underestimate the role of institutions like the military industrial complex.  When they do look at military spending they overemphasize alternative ways to spend that money.  They underestimate the lack of human economic progress because the capital and research diverted to the military undermines the civilian manufacturing sector ability to grow and provide better jobs and products for the rest of us, as seen in the strong German economy.  Opportunity cost is a lost concept on them.  Too often the humanities perspective denigrates and ignores the business perspective.  And too often the business perspective also only focuses on the money and ignores the direction the society is moving, expanding our horizons or futilely trying to control our enemies.  Too often looking at our enemies as evil rather than misguided leads us into overreactions that only serve the purposes of multiplying them.

Peace Economics Example

Economists, caught up in the history of economic thought, focus too much on microeconomics, believing that macroeconomics will never become a science.  Too use the analogy of physical matter phases of gas liquid and solid, economics starts with a focus on individual decisions (gas) building them up into business decisions (liquid flow of society).  They fail to see “solid state” of peace economics that lost capital sent to the military stalls growth while deficit spending adds to growth in the annual records.  In the longer term the land ocean 54-year cycle leads directly into the same economic long cycle and the major war cycle.  In the medium term the Juglar capital investment cycle of about nine years balances out the annual errata.  Together these forces produce a scientific model of economic productivity growth.  Without the precision in the historical record, economics would still be in the squishy liquid phase, with proverbial “too many factors” preventing the movement into a new level of science.

54 Year Long Cycle Example

Global warming science has been so captured by a mutually peer reviewing in group of scientists that they claim 97% certainty about the greenhouse effect.  However, I have audited four local global warming scientists’ classes and learned how the right hand doesn’t know what the left hand is doing.  Undeniably there is a Greenhouse Effect and Earth could be an ice ball without it.  But I have witnessed some of the scientists distorting the record to prove their points and to avoid healthy criticisms.  They have shown an unhealthy defensiveness against new ideas thanks to pressure from the fossil fuel industries.  One student paper showed the model used in class projects leveled off in the second century of warming without changing the trajectory of fossil fuel usage.  Students were instructed to model for one century only.  But even though energy models clearly show a huge amount of solar radiation immediately evaporates water when it hits the surface, they stubbornly resist analyzing the differential impact over land versus ocean as I have.  Even though my modeling is obviously true, few share my understanding except for a World Future Society audience of fifty in Chicago on July 20, 2013.  Other less sophisticated audiences are just stunned.  I have 56 repeat events roughly equally divided in the three basic categories of natural, economic, and political (mostly wars) with 20 precise fits to the year and 95% accuracy overall.  I have three levels of different proofs for each transmission mechanism from natural to economic to political.  But when I talk to climate scientists they fail to recognize the work of industrial engineers like Frederick Taylor, businesspeople like JW Forrester and economists like Sivard, Kondratiev, and Juglar. When I explain anomalies of the temperature record are easily explained by my evaporation theory they look like deer caught in the headlights and move on rather than try to understand me.  Few people can match the nine fields of specialization I have, so they remain restricted to their narrow fields and can’t keep up with me, except for the renaissance people who have nominated me for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Summary

The breadth scope and complexity and basic research style of my work could not be matched without my nine fields of specialty of math, science, wargaming, engineering, accounting, business, politics, peace economics, and long cycle theory.  And I left out history art and religion.  Interdisciplinarity allows me to make connections, plug holes, and otherwise see around corners that others do not see.  Leadership experience teaches me the art of making complex decisions and understanding the psychology of other leaders, such as the war decision.  The world will change dramatically for the better with less wars in the future when leaders recognize the self-defeating nature of excessive military spending levels that leave a nation with a much smaller economy to win future wars with.  And long cycle theory tells us when to expect those future major wars. Together these things change the high military mantra of peace through strength into the reverse low military high growth mantra of strength through peace.  Academics and politicians please consider nominating me to the Norwegian Nobel Committee at

https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/Nomination.

 

For additional information please see this key seven pages about my ideas:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, January 1), “Interdisciplinary Insights” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Interdisciplinary-Insights,2018153181.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and Given Odds for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017

Possible Favorite in 2018 November 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Findings and Special Claims

Since the Norwegian Nobel Committee seems to be taking me very seriously lately, it’s time for a catalog of my findings and special claims.

  1. Manufacturing Productivity growth rate reduces in proportion to military economy. Ruth Sivard provided the bar chart of nineteen years summary of G7 countries plus Sweden and Denmark in 1981.  Nils Petter Gledisch correlated the data at R=-0.81.  Reuschlein combined Europe and North America improving the continental correlation to R=-0.997.  Claim:  this proves the non-productive nature of military spending.  Reuschlein 1986.
  2. Capital Investment reduces by the amount of military spending. Ruth Sivard in 1983 published this bar chart of the G7 countries plus Sweden over a twenty one year period.  Reuschlein claims that for five of these countries R=-0.993.  The outliers of Italy and Canada are secondary countries in the two main continents, 3.5% GDP lower than the main top four NATO countries, and Japan is 4.5% GDP higher due to a strong cultural bias towards savings. Reuschlein 1986.
  3. American economic productivity model from 1920 to 1983 shows a correlation of R=0.999. All parameters were independently arrived at from annual historical data analysis.  Claim:  this model proves the existence of the 1926 Nicolai Kondratieff 54 year cycle and the Clement Juglar 1860 nine year investment cycle.  This model also has trade loss Great Depression factor and oil shock seventies Oil Crisis factor.  These special factors also repeat confirm their accuracy on a three year basis. Reuschlein 1986.
  4. Defense Strategy model 1985 and 1986. Here is where my war-gaming background comes in handy.  Claim:  this is the key concept why it is imperative for nations to reduce military spending or suffer long term national security disaster in a next major war decades from now.
  5. Decade by decade GDP of these same countries from 1900 to 1980 shows countries rising on low military and falling on high military generally. Best examples, USA, Japan, Russia, Germany.  Claim:  rise and fall of nations depends on level of military spending.  This supports 1972 Toynbee claim that 23 of 25 empires fell because of their high military spending.  Reuschlein 1986.
  6. Murder and Crime rates of five of same countries are proportional to the military economy. The five are from high to low America, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Japan, R=0.996.  This works best for murder rates, and crime index of murder, crime, criminals.  Sweden does not fit for crime index because of definitional issues such as misdemeanors added to felonies.  These five are all 160 year old societies.  The 400 year old societies of England, France, Massachusetts, and Virginia also correlate, R=0.93, but at a 60% lower rate.  The additional 240 years divided by 400 years is 60%.  This indicates a reduced crime rate for being a stable society, but still affected by the military economy size.  Claim:  social decay of declining empires is a direct result of the military spending levels, both because of the economic stagnation and the level of militarism.  Reuschlein 1989.
  7. Regional Growth proportional to military spending changes R=0.97. Analysis of Bi-Coastal Economy report of 1986 shows this when adding military spending changes and grouping states together around regional hub cities or other logical economic clusters of 17 state cluster mini-regions. Cluster idea partial credit goes to Los Angeles Book Award “Cities and the Wealth of Nations” and Reuschlein’s accounting background.  Reuschlein 1987.
  8. Kondratieff wave not only in economics, but also in droughts, temperature, and in wars. Reuschlein 1991.  Claim:  my list of 56 major events, natural, economics, and wars, shows 20 exact year fits and an average departure of 1.5 years from the 54 year cycle.  Drought data prepared by NOAA in 1988, presented on C-SPAN, started the three year project.
  9. Reuschlein finds 54 year cycle in a variety of volcanic, drought, flood, temperature, precipitation, hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes, and El Nino data. “Trends 90” a key statistical help with other sources.  Working with 14 temperature and 2 precipitation data sets I gradually discovered the pattern.  The difference in hemispheres North and South confirmed the pattern.  My forecasting prowess once earned top honors in a business course on production 1976.
  10. Found nine year cycle in precipitation records 1991. With nine year and 54 year cycles in both temperature and economics, what is the connection?  Failed trying to find it in agriculture.  Then the business production class bails me out as I remember Frederick Taylor’s work finding an ideal temperature to build railroads of 64 degrees Fahrenheit.  A 1986 Climate Change video aired on Maryland PBS by Australian Journalist James Walker leads to Ideal Temperature Zone concept.  Claim:  humans respond to excessive heat with lethargy, creating the link between economic cycles and weather cycles.
  11. Goldstein 1987 finds fifty year cycle in major wars in Europe last five hundred years. Reuschlein extends this to three hundred years of Roman Empire, 200 years of America, for a total of 1000 years with 6 of 17 major war years projected onto the future year 2025.  Pattern is usually #1 versus #2 power after 27 year high growth period when wealth is maximized and new economic differences are maximized.  Then about three years into the new low growth period, at the end of a major cold year two or three year trend, leaders seek a distraction into war and the major war breaks out.  Claim:  both economics and temperature lead to major wars.
  12. Finding: unemployment rate variance across the states fluctuates greatly with the military spending.  For the 1984-1992 period, US military spending % GDP drops 23% overall while the Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell’s home state Maine increases 100%. 12 state clusters representing the Eastern 78% of the country correlate directly with the military changes, R=0.97.  The largest rise in unemployment occurs in Massachusetts as Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill retires in 1986.  Opposite pattern of #7 but same correlation, as the sixteen states that benefited most under Reagan military buildup have fourteen of the highest unemployment rate increases.  The two exceptions?  South Carolina and Georgia with the chair and ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee representing those two states.  Reuschlein 1992.
  13. Richard Schneider asks me to teach my course on “University of the Air” Radio for Peace International 1997. Finding:  recognizing the manufacturing nature of military spending taken as a whole.  1991 University of Colorado professor invites me to write up the manufacturing productivity connection explanation.  Finding:  must look at arms manufacturers as suppliers to the military “factory”.  Then military “factory” is light manufacturing with heavy equipment manufactured by arms industry.  Then absence of a positive product that helps meet human needs like food, clothing, shelter, transportation, fuel, and other hard goods explains how military spending inputs can nourish local communities while giving back only a political service to the larger community or nation.  Necessity is not the issue, national defense is not the issue; lack of a consumer product is the economic flaw in military spending.  Input Output analysis is the key to this understanding.
  14. Spirit Level 2010 by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Puckett shows that income inequality leads to disastrous social and health outcomes. Finding:  Military Spending has much stronger correlations on the six strongest components of their index.  Claim:  Decline of empire is more responsible for poor social conditions than income inequality.
  15. Doctoral Dissertation on Peace Economics in Peace Studies 2009 finds that of eight key concepts in Peace Economics as I define it, Peace Studies programs are very weak on two. Those are the regional state by state economics of military spending and the long cycle of history of booms and busts and wars.  The 54 year cycle is hardly mentioned.  Claim:  not understanding the local impact of military spending and politics beyond the usual generalities avoids findings like all presidents elected during the 11 elections of the Cold War came from an above average military spending state.  Claim:  not understanding the long cycle leads to poor prediction of wars, which leads to military over preparation for constant wars and war threats.
  16. Finding: Klyashtorin’s spectrum analysis of Greenland ice core data shows a very strong 55 year cycle in temperature data over 1400 years.  A friend on a global warming list-serve shared that research from decades ago in circa 2005.  Finding after Hurricane Sandy in 2012:  Running a 55 year moving average over the 1850 to 2010 annual global temperature data smooths the graph into three straight lines, with the last two correlating at .998 and .997 respectively.  Claim:  this proves the existence of the Kondratieff wave   and the natural origins of that cycle show that the economic cycle is not human made but comes from a cycle between land and ocean caused by differential evaporation rates over land and ocean.  Like the four seasons over 12 months this super season occurs over 54 years and occurs despite background changes to the underlying trends caused by the Greenhouse Effect.

Summary

  1. Claim: Recognition of this body of work will lead to better severe weather and major hurricane repeat events predictions as historical records are analyzed and regionalized better.

Claim:  Fortunes will be made in the stock market as the regional impact of major military budget changes is seen to change the fortunes of regionally concentrated stocks and as military states and manufacturing states are seen to move in opposite directions.  Claim:  downward pressure will be strong on all military budgets everywhere as nations begin to understand the self-defeating role high military spending has on a nation’s real defense strength, its economy, over the course of a few decades:  a better balance will be struck between short term defense and long term defense.  Claim:  economic benefits as well as social benefits will accrue to those who find a lower balance of military spending as the way to go.  The million US homicide deaths that occurred in the thirty years after John Lennon’s death could have been cut in half if the military budget had been cut in half, saving 500,000 lives.  Claim:  science will be enhanced greatly as economics and climate change each improve in accuracy by an order of magnitude, with many benefits to the billions of people on this planet.  Claim:  all of these benefits and more will only occur if someone like the Norwegian Nobel Committee helps me get over the publicity and recognition hurdles, so that thousands of scientist can help take this work to the next level.

Seven Page Summary of Main Ideas:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

 

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, November 16), “Why Is the USA an Empire?”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Findings-and-Special-Claims,2017131181.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Changing the World Views

How Mastering Macroeconomics and Climate Change Created Kudos and Backlash

My academic work creating a perfect science-like model of economic growth proves that military spending is the biggest impediment to a powerful nation’s economic growth.  That in turn leads to my new defense strategy requiring a nation to minimize military spending or fall into decline that will inevitably be eclipsed by another power.  Many falsely assume this decline to be inevitable, when in fact it is the result of prolonged over-militarization.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee’s failure to recognize this new reality of science only delays, it does not stop, the inevitable recognition that excessive militarization is self-poisoning of a society.  It does not stop the fact that huge stock market gains are possible following the moves of the military industrial complex better and recognizing the Great Lakes states region moves in the opposite direction of the military budget.  That is because military spending drains key science and capital resources away from civilian manufacturing industries that can be restored by reducing the military budget.  Even the military will benefit from initial lowering, because that results in a better future for them and the society around them as the new high growth glide path “tide lifts even the military boat” ever higher faster.

History of Campaigning to Change the World

My campaign to change the world began with a brochure with a bar chart by Ruth Sivard in 1983.  I took it to the walls of legislative workspace of the 1983 Oregon legislative session with blown up copies of that bar chart.  Finding that in my files after the 1985 Oregon legislative session, I realized the world was ignoring her great work, so I began to test it.  My tests lead to the first presentation of material in December 1985 to the Lane County Commissioners, including Jerry Rust who offered to submit my material to the Pulitzer Prize committee back then and in 2016 submitted my first nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Then Frank Arundel offered me his MacIntosh to complete the first edition of “Peace Economics” in 1986 which I extensively footnoted unlike these blogs.  That remains my clearest and most convincing work of the Economic Model that results from the nonproductive nature of military spending.  PRIO, the “Journal of Peace Research” in Oslo Norway where the Nobel Prize is awarded, asked me to submit an article, but I did not know how to, so I ignored them.  I taught three academic years my Peace Economics course from 1987 to 1989 at the University of Oregon.  My enrollment for a Doctorate in Economics at U.O. ended in my withdrawal due to the fact my professors agreed with me that military spending was non-productive, yet it was not in the model we were expected to study for the first year.  Frustrated at the University, I turned to being a monthly columnist 1989-1997 with Peter Bergel’s Oregon PeaceWorker which had a circulation of 10,000.  Soon all the Democratic Congresspersons knew of my work and Peter DeFazio asked me to write a piece for him to read on the floor of the House, but I was intimidated once more, fearing I might be too critical for a political body like that.  Then Richard Schneider of Radio for Peace International asked me to offer a University of the Air shortwave radio course in 1997 until 2004 when RFPI folded.

The New Campaign

Having met a professor at an anti-war rally in 2003, she later helped me find a new Doctoral Program without the obstinacy of Economics.  From 2006 to 2009 I completed the Doctorate in Educational Leadership from Madison, Wisconsin’s Edgewood College, next to the Edgewood High School I once graduated from and earned the first of many subsequent listings in Marquis Who’s Who I am listed in, later including America and World.  My day job for many years had been as a CPA working for my father, but now I could finally get on with my real life’s work establishing the new scientific economic theory no one in the field of economics even thought was possible.  Economists and Accountants don’t have the scientific training of an engineer, my first degree, so I knew the only way was to advance my ideas to academics and the public until the anticipated foot dragging of economists was overcome.  To that end, I turned to blogging press releases on expertclick.com, recommended by an author I had read.  I now have 119,000 views on Expertclick.com over a four year period, 5443 views on Academia.edu, 5014 views on WordPress.com, and about 10,000 views on Realeconomy.com which has links to all the other detailed websites and is the best place to start.

Favorites of the Press

ExpertClick.com shows me constant updates I check daily for the most current 50 press releases sent out to their list of 7000.  Of those who have left the 50 list, but remain on access to site visitors, I update those results once a year.  The full lists ranked by both views and chronologically are at the link at the bottom of this page.  The most popular old releases in the last year are, in rank order of views this last year, in parentheses (all time total), and date:

Predictions 200 (1067) 8-26-14, Global Citizen 190 (1289)     6-28-14, Walker Work Dignity 154 (722) 2-28-15, Politician in Eugene 151 (789) 5-14-14, Scientific Revolution 142 (687) 12-21-14, Nepal Chile 127 (595) 4-28-15, Grandpa Horicon Marsh 121 (695) 3-1-14, Elections Plus 114 (553) 11-13-14, Military Terror Policing 101 (1222) 8-17-14, Modern Feudalism 99 (863) 2-21-15, Religion and Empire 99 (795) 1-3-15, Heat Hurts 99 (652) 9-8-14, Baltimore Riot 97 (613) 5-2-15.

Favorites of the Academics

Academia.edu lists my 72 papers, including seven peer reviewed articles, several six per page power point conference presentations, many chapters of my unpublished book based on the Radio for Peace International course, the most important Defense Strategy and Economic Model chapters of “Peace Economics”, and many special papers on key topics old and new.  These are ranked by downloads as a marker of serious interest in the link at the end of this article. Unfortunately, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has focused only on the superficial ExpertClick.com press releases and not enough on this academic papers section.  The most important work of all is the 1986 Economic Model and the 1986 Defense Strategy chapters from “Peace Economics” worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize.  The Climate War Cycle power point from 7-20-13 World Future Society presentation and the Weather Cycle paper document the 54 year cycle work that is worthy of the Nobel Physics Prize.  Both of these together are worthy of the Nobel Economics Prize.  Alas for me, the world is full of very slow learners. The ranked lists of state, country, and topics are all shown in the link at the bottom of this page.  This is my best source for people and places interested in my work, and show an evolution from mainly US interest, to mainly British Empire interest among the foreign interest, to strong global acceptance of my work beyond the British Empire countries including more US and worldwide gamers from the Gary Gygax and Dungeons and Dragons crowd.

Favorites of the Mostly Political Friends and Public

BobReuschlein.wordpress.com is where I put all my press releases, and it allows typos to be corrected so it is the best version of my press releases and includes some excellent work just before I started with ExpertClick.com in October 2013 including the first interest by the Pentagon and the CIA in my work. This general list to the public and my mostly political friends has very different priorities than the other two.  Much of this comes from referrals.  Here are the 16 most interesting articles according to the common folk out there, in rank order of views:

1133 Scientific Revolution Facts (Thomas Kuhn), 114 “Where to Invade Next” (Michael Moore), 104 Wargaming with Gary Gygax, 92 Game Master Gygax History, 70 Nobel Peace Prize Nominee, 58 Politician in Eugene Oregon, 53 History US Military Economy, 51 The New Weimar Republic, 47 Are Chili and Nepal Related?, 47 Modern Stages of Empire, 43 Scott Walker of Wisconsin, 42 To Hillary Clinton Critics, 40 Paris Terror, Who Gains?, 40 CIA Presidents:  Obama Clinton, 38 Baltimore Riot the New Watts, 38 Odds on Nobel Peace Prize.

For complete ranked lists of viewings by topic, state, country, by websites:

https://www.academia.edu/34794541/CHANGING_WORLD_VIEWS_2013-2017_13p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, October 8). “Changing the World Views”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Changing-the-World-Views-Robert-Reuschlein,2017130137.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Nobel Peace Year Highlights

Saturday October 14th 8:30am at the ISSS-ISAC conference at American University in Washington DC I will be presenting my “low military is the best defense strategy”, a key concept in reducing military spending world wide, and a key reason to award the Peace Prize.

In the year between Nobel Peace Prize Awards I’ve had a very good year.  Starting with two entries in the “SAGE Encyclopedia of War – Social Science Edition” released online October 12, 2016.  That event pushed my Academic.edu viewings overseas into orbit with about three times as much response internationally in the year since then while interest domestically in the United States stayed about the same as before.  In addition, downloads set new records five times this last year.  The encyclopedia articles boosted downloads to new levels far in excess of the previous record of 34 for “Summary”.   The “SAGE Political Economy of War” reached 50 downloads after the October release.  “Military Economy Direct 11” reached 56 downloads after the March release followed by “Dear Future US President” with 87 after the May release, then “History of Gary Gygax and War Economy” released in June had 129 downloads, and finally “Military Complete Geography” released in August has just reached 159 downloads.  That’s five new records in one year.  My work has just hit a new level of growing international acceptance this year, setting those new records in downloads.  There are a variety of other surprises on my websites and in the news that give me encouragement.

Academia Recommendation

My “SAGE Military Keynesianism” encyclopedia entry was RECOMMENDED by Professor Aruwa, Suleiman A.S. on January 12, 2017.  The good professor was once the Finance Minister in the Nigerian Government and has over ONE MILLION VIEWS of his Academia.edu website.  He has 22 books and 59 papers on his website.  He is in the top 0.5% on Academia with an author rank of 1.5.  Thanks to his recommendation I now have an author rank of 1.1 and on a twelve month basis I’m now in the top 0.8% for my annual views and top 2% on monthly views.  My total downloads this year of 495 include the 173 in the last month, mostly 158 from “Military Complete Geography.”

Norwegian Nobel Committee

Viewing the last twenty-four releases in a row just occurred about 2:30pm September 23, 2017,  Oslo Norway time.  This is probably the Nobel Committee because the last time that long a streak of consecutive views happened was at 9am Norwegian time the day after nominations closed in 2016.  This year one of my nominators received an acknowledgement from the committee last Spring 2017.  So Jim Murphy’s ranking my chances as 31st is probably an underestimate of my chances.  I’m on a list of 1500 peacemakers all time, online, that includes Barack Obama born one year later according to the list.  It mentions my “Dr. Peace” name and my attendance and presentation at the one hundred year anniversary of the Hague Peace Conference in 1999.  It does not include the many peace and international groups I’ve been involved with over the years, see my Resume paper.

Hurricane and Volcano Cycle Evidence

Giant Indonesian Bali volcano Agung, category 5 volcano in 1963 is predicted to erupt any day now for the first time in 54 years, a perfect fit for the 54 year cycle.  Just in the last month, two category 4 hurricanes landed in the United States for the first time in 166 years, since 1851, which is three 54 year cycles plus 4 years.  Jacksonville Florida had record flooding this year exceeding the old record in 1846, three 54 year cycles plus nine years.  Puerto Rico hit by category five hurricane Maria exceeds the 1928 hurricane that last hit Puerto Rico, a third hurricane of category four plus hitting the United States territory this year.  This is an 81 year fit of three 27 year cycles, missing by 8 years.

Other Highlights This Year

Presenting at the Telos Institute for the first time this last January was a highlight as the main speaker took great interest in my work.  Then getting back to my wargaming roots after 43 years since I attended the first seven Gen Con conventions.  I had not seen my old friend Gary Gygax since the first year of his Dungeons and Dragons sales.  I saw his son Ernest Gygax at the ninth Gary Con in Lake Geneva after his death.  His son told me he talked about me all the time.  We were two leading lights in the International Federation of Wargaming from 1966 to 1974, where he constantly and I occasionally published.  I was the top rated player in the IFW and beat Gary in the only game ever directly between us.  I played a prototype of D & D on the porch of Gary’s home once.  Then as I moved West, he offered to sell my old games at the convention for a couple years.  That was the last we corresponded, as I got into graduate school and then politics 2000 miles away.  When I returned 43 years later, I found out I was a Legend of Wargaming, included in the book “Playing the Game” by Jon Peterson.  Then I found out my niece was at Gen Con 50 also.  It’s been very emotional.  I was finally allowed to present at the UW Madison Chaos Seminar on August 22 about my empire theory.  The reception was warm and many were very interested with many questions that feed into my personal strength, answering questions.

Summary

Strange pattern on my website might indicate Nobel is double checking me out right now, Saturday afternoon 9-23-17 about 2pm Oslo time, and Monday evening 9-25-17 between 8pm and midnight, someone(s) read all 24 press releases since last Christmas.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee reportedly chooses in August according to Jim Murphy, announces October 6 Friday.  Since both days are the same 24 in a row, it’s hard to imagine that as anything but a double check by two of the five Norwegian politicians that make the decision. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday 6 October, 11:00 a.m. Norway time (4am Madison time CDT).

For more information about the Nobel Peace Prize journey:

https://www.academia.edu/31102462/BIOGRAPHY_for_Nobel_Peace_Prize_2013-2017_23_p

For more information about my Main Ideas:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, October 1). “Nobel Peace Year Highlights”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Nobel-Peace-Year-Highlights-Robert-Reuschlein,2017129985.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Three Cycles or Just One

When I coined the title of my Radio for Peace International course “Weather, Wealth, and Wars” it was just a cute way of saying there are not three separate 54 year cycles, there is just one cycle with several different manifestations in the natural world, the economic world, and the political and war world.  Convinced that it was idiotic to consider them separate, I began looking for the connecting mechanisms and found them over a long period of time, with trial and error. But I still was stuck in the old logic of analyzing the three worlds separately.  What if you look at the system as a whole and look at these interconnections holistically?  At first I thought the Earth system created by differing evaporation rates over land and ocean was the main driver of it all, we are creatures of our planet.  Sure enough, after trying agriculture as the link and finding that doesn’t work well, I remembered some studies and personal experiences with heat that showed how heat can reduce productivity.  That turned out to fit a variety of cases and circumstances and appears to be the right connection.  Then economics seems to be the right fit for explaining the timing of major wars, again in a variety of ways.  But along came the finding of cold years (sometimes months and days) correlating with wars beginning.  That seemed a bridge too far for me.  Yet it was there, and evidence for it exists.  But the mechanism?  I just don’t know, I’m only partially sold on that concept.  I’d rather downplay that whole idea.  But yet…..well, maybe.

How Do Human Beings Work

For all our rationalizations and reasoning, we are really very fragile creations.  Emotions often get the better of our reasoning side.  For all our ability to “work around” and solve seemingly impossible problems, we are very much trapped by our environment.  Physically we build walls and roads all over the place to separate ourselves from our environment.  Housing is considered a basic need, as is privacy.  Constantly pumping in sound to a cell is a form of torture and can drive a person crazy just as much as complete isolation can.  We are delicate, impacted by many things.  We can overwork ourselves to the point of sickness and exhaustion.  The craziness of the president’s tweets may be a result of perpetual five hour a night sleep deprivation.  Balance is the key to happiness and success.  Sudden changes in our atmospherics, new trends, and sudden deepening of old trends may have consequences.  Those on the top of the food chain may feel the new trends and adjustments especially well having a whole populace to channel the new state of being up to a focus.

Junctures and Consequences

Great stress is put on the Earth each time the shift occurs from relative warming trend to relative cooling trend.  The land and ocean are in titanic struggle.  So some events of the 54 year cycle are every 27 year events.  Then there is another paradox of the long cycle; that every other 54 year long cycle comes and goes over a land dominated Northern Hemisphere dominated cycle or an ocean dominated Southern Hemisphere cycle.  This shows up in the temperature record clearly by whether the Northern or Southern Hemisphere is warmer in a given year.  So while the land heats and cools over a 54 year cycle, the ocean seems to follow a much longer 108 year cycle.  With the Earth about two thirds ocean (71% actually) and one third land (29% actually) this seems to make some rough sense out of the pattern.  Land seems to be three times as volatile and subject to warming as ocean for several reasons.  The huge tendency of solar radiation to vaporize water is satisfied easily over ocean and with difficulty over land and especially difficult over desert.  This shows up in large scale with the heavily landed Northern Hemisphere having three times the seasonal temperature variation as the heavily oceanic Southern Hemisphere.  Heat slows people down in the tropics and in the summer.  Cool refreshes and energizes for higher productivity.

Historical Turning Points

Lets look at the natural, economic, and war turning points fifty four years ago.  Multi year averages are best for determining turning points out of a rough set of data like economic growth by year and temperature by year for the last hundred plus years.  For both economics and temperature, the American picture is clear.  For economic growth the high points are 1898, 1952, and 2006; the low points are 1928, 1982, and 2036.  The temperature relative to trend low is 1913, 1967, and 2021; the high 1940 and 1994.  So the cooling trend from 1940 to 1967 is the high growth era peaking in 1952.  At the end of this era is the natural dominance of the land heavy Northern Hemisphere that began with the 1921 heat wave, lead to peak heat in the Great Depression thirties, then cools and continues until 1968.  In 1969 the oceanic Southern Hemisphere suddenly becomes the hotter Hemisphere until 2028.  The economy starts cooling off and the politics changes drastically on exactly this timetable.  Around the globe 1968 is a year of student riots in France and America, and Cultural Revolution in China.  Then 1969 almost has a superpower war between the communist giants China and Russia, except that the nuclear bomb and cooler heads prevail as they did in the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.  1970 is the thousand year average year of a major war breaking out in the 54 year war cycle.  The political pendulum swings in America from the 1932 to 1968 dominance of Democratic liberal spending presidents to the dominance of conservative presidencies starting with Nixon Reagan and the Bushes.  Each period has its exceptions that prove the rule, moderate Republican Eisenhower in the first period and conservative Southern Democrats Carter and Clinton in the second period.  The new Republican political economy of austerity fits the economic down cycle.  Launched by the 1971 Louis Powell memo that reacts to liberal dominance with a bevy of new 70’s conservative think tanks, Heritage, ALEC, CATO, to add to the 1942 Bradley Foundation.  All these in the wake of the Vietnam War defeat with its reduced military spending.  The reaction is to gin up a reason to raise military spending. George Bush uses the CIA creating a B team estimate of Soviet military spending based on American prices.  Soviet hardware overpriced creates the illusion that 80% of Soviet spending is on hardware, not the traditional massive Russian conscript army.  With this fictitious doubling of Soviet military spending, the public is lured into an arms race military increase under Reagan. Beginning in 1981, with the biggest peacetime military increase in American history, the economy is initially depressed in 1982, by switching from manufacturing to military.  This was funded by a massive 70% tax cut for the top1% along with a 15% cut for the middle class, propping up the economy with classic warlike deficit spending.  Along with firing the PATCO aircraft controllers and gutting regulations protecting unions, this begins the long forty year freeze of wage increases for the middle class.  This leads to a militaristic medieval like society of lords and serfs.  This is coupled with an influx of third world elites, businesspeople, engineers, doctors, and lawyers with their elite conservative lack of concern for the third world masses.  This pushes society deeper into a state of empire and empire social decay.

Summary

Empire military increases and temperature increases combine to send America into a middle class decline as conservative political forces fueled by military spending reinforce the pattern of decline across the board, except for the elites and military industry:  https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt._29_slide_5_p._2017

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 17). “Three Cycles or Just One”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Three-Cycles-or-Just-One-Robert-Reuschlein,2017119675.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Hurricane Planet Dynamics

Back to back major hurricanes like Harvey and Irma is a sure sign of warmer oceans thanks to the dramatic escalation of global warming since 1973.  Why do I say since 1973?  That’s the last year of the 1910-1973 cycle as shown by three perfectly straight line of 55 year moving average global warming temperatures since 1850.  That straight line with a 1 Fahrenheit/century slope was correlated at .998, and then the next cycle of 1974 to 2025 first ten years was correlated .997 with a 2 Fahrenheit/century slope.  Before 1910 was no slope and after 2025 is anybody’s guess, perhaps 3 Fahrenheit/century slope.  The central year of the most modern 55 year moving average was, at that time, 1983 for the 55 years from 1956 to 2010.  What does “at that time” mean?  It means the time of my July 20, 2013 speech to the World Future Society meeting in Chicago that year.  What happened was that everyone in the front row (about 6 or 8 people out of 50 in attendance) rose in unison to take a cell-phone snapshot of my key temperature slide.  What had triggered my investigation was Hurricane Sandy hitting New York 52 years after the last flooding of the battery in Manhattan, New York in 1960.  I decided to test the 55 year cycle relative peak La Place transform result of Klyashtorin (2001 Rome) work over 1420 years of Greenland ice core measurements and it worked out brilliantly.

How Does the Planetary System Work?

Like clockwork is the first answer, with a certain amount of noise, just like the seasons and the sunrises, with precision underlying all three phenomena.  Red sky in morning, sailors take warning, red sky at night, sailors delight.  Where does it come from?  Evaporation differences over land and sea.  What I mean by that is that most solar energy landing on the surface of the Earth is used to vaporize water.  But there is much water in the ocean and much less water over land.  So there is more solar energy left over to warm things up over land than over water.  So land seems to warm up about three times as fast as ocean overall on planet Earth.  So other than the frozen ice covered land over Antarctica, there is about three times as much land in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere.  This then tends to explain why the seasonal extreme temperature months of January and July are three times as far apart in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere.  So it takes a long time to even this energy balance out on planet Earth.  It takes 27 years of heating for the land to get so overheated with major droughts that the ocean starts with major floods to begin taking the next 27 years bringing things back into balance.  So the 1917 temperature bottom takes 27 years to reach the temperature top in 1944.  The next bottom in 1971 is unclear as 1964 and 1976 look more like bottoms, although the year 1971 tries to form a bottom.  Then the next top in 1998 is clearly 54 years after the 1944 top.

More Patterns

Great stress is put on the Earth each time the shift occurs from relative warming trend to relative cooling trend.  The land and ocean are in titanic struggle.  So some events of the 54 year cycle are every 27 year events.  Then there is another paradox of the long cycle; that every other 54 year long cycle comes and goes over a land dominated Northern Hemisphere dominated cycle or an ocean dominated Southern Hemisphere cycle.  This shows up in the temperature record clearly by whether the Northern or Southern Hemisphere is warmer in a given year.  So while the land heats and cools over a 54 year cycle, the ocean seems to follow a much longer 108 year cycle.  With the Earth about two thirds ocean (71% actually) and one third land (29% actually) this seems to make some rough sense out of the pattern.  So the strong mid century warming of the 20th century comes in the midst of the 48 years 1921 to 1968 when the Northern Hemisphere is hotter 45 of those years.  The Southern Hemisphere is hotter 45 of the 60 years from 1861 to 1920.  Both temperature dominant patterns show brief reversals in the middle of the dominant patterns, as these long term patterns show minor ebbs and flows along the way.  More graphs and details are shown in my 1991 paper “Natural Global Warming” posted to my academia.edu website.

Major Miami Hurricanes Last Hundred Years

Major Miami hurricanes were 1935, 1965, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and now Irma in 2017.  These illustrate the every 27 year change nature of the 54 year cycle.  If the 1965 and 1992 events are a perfect 27 years apart, the 1935 event is three years early and the 2017 event is two years early.  Or looking at the average, 30+27+25 divided by three is 27.3 years.  Another view would be the two sets of 54 year cycles 1935 to 1992, 57 years, and 1965 to 2017, 52 years.  Then that average would be 54.5 years.  One could argue the Miami connection, but no one could argue the South Florida connections of these four events.  One could note that the first two were in the Northern Hemisphere phase, a land oriented phase, hence farther apart.  Then the second two were in the oceanic Southern Hemisphere phase and closer together.  This shows how oceanic phase events differ from land phase events.  Likewise the droughts and floods.  The US had two Major interior droughts in the land phase (1934, 1936) and one in the ocean phase (1988).  But also the oceanic phase had major regional droughts in coastal states, 1985 to 1991 seven year droughts in Florida, Georgia, and California.  As for the major Mississippi floods, one in the land phase in 1938 (discounting the 1927 flood as pre-human intervention) and two in the oceanic phase 1993 and 1995.  The major droughts were 52 and 54 years apart and the major floods were 55 and 57 years apart.  Perhaps the cycle length shrunk for the droughts because the intervening years were 63% (34/54) land phase years and the cycle extended somewhat for the floods because the intervening years were 47% (27/57) ocean phase years.

Summary

Yes, the world temperature cycle exists; yes it works best globally, nearly as well for the US, but very well regionally as well.  My temperature graph slide and 56 event charts were posted on my academia.edu website in 2013 and are included at the end of this general paper about the weather cycle:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5p. from_1997_9p. 2014

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 10). “Hurricane Planet Dynamics”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Hurricane-Planet-Dynamics,2017119532.aspx

Addenda

Jacksonville flood was the worst since 1846, that’s 171 year ago, three 54 year cycles would be 162 years, so that is a 9 year miss.  The last time two category 4 hurricanes hit the US in the same year was 1851, that’s 166 years ago, three 54 year cycles would be 162 years, so that is a 4 year miss.

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Teaching Peace Economics

People wonder why I criticize exactly the people I need on my side.  It’s because I’m not writing for them, my academic colleagues, I’m writing for history.  In the course of time, even though many of them rightly consider themselves great for their disciplines or great among their colleagues, most of them will be long forgotten one hundred years from now.  I’m different.  My work is so unique many fail to understand it.  I will be remembered one hundred years from now, probably better posthumously than now.  I have found scientific bedrock in two fields, economics and climate.  Because I’m an outsider to those fields, a talented mathematician, wargamer, and politician in that order, I consider my best chance for a Nobel Prize is in the political field of Peace.  I consider that I have a very good chance of becoming the first to win three Nobel Prizes, in Peace, Economics, and Physics.  People want to pigeon-hole me into one area or another without seeing the essential interconnectedness of it all.  My achievement would not have been possible without my thorough intuitive understanding of mathematics in a real world context.  A mathematician and wargamer with depth in politics is what it took to find the answers in fields long thought to be imprecise in the aggregate.  My frustrations and situation sound a lot like those of Galileo trying to awaken the world to the Copernican Revolution in astronomy to me.  Try telling today’s economists that military spending and temperature trends are the two biggest impediments to economic growth.  They’d be rolling in the aisles with laughter.

Living with Thomas Kuhn’s Insights

When Thomas Kuhn wrote “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” he gave me the guideposts to understanding the resistance of those in the world around me when I came out with my first strong findings in my short book “Peace Economics” in 1986.  Days ago I attended a memorial service of another somewhat reclusively shy academic, Warren Hagstrom, a Sociology Professor at UW Madison, either the first or second ranked such school program in the world (Berkeley is the rival).  On the cover of his memorial service brochure is this John Maynard Keynes quote “The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”  Indeed.  Lately I’ve come to realize the mistake of starting with World War II in my 2010 forty minute video and 24 page accompanying pamphlet on Peace Economics.  Challenging Military Keynesianism by starting with that war is to challenge the most deeply held belief in America, the notion that the war brought us out of the Great Depression.  I have lost several potential allies over that issue (initials GF, FG, and MP).  I should have started slowly and built to such a conclusion ever so gradually.  It’s like when I discovered most people reading the 48 page paperback version of Peace Economics stopped one third of the way through.  Or like the discovery that conservatives instantly want to turn a Peace Economics discussion into a discussion of the merits of war versus peace, instantly stereotyping me as some naïve hippy fool peacenic.  My solution to that problem was to call my website and nineties book Real Economy.  That is when I realized the manufacturing economy was being sacrificed on the military altar.  That further lead to the political insight that the Great Lakes region industrial states were the ones most imperiled by militarism, collapsing with military buildups like the eighties and after 9-11-01 (the aughts?), and prospering with military builddowns like the sixties, seventies, and nineties.

Stunning New Insights of my Life (Math, Political Economy, Peace)

Born the day after my mother’s mother’s funeral, I was traumatized for many years over the mixed messages of grief and love I received from mom in that first year.  It took a couple decades of therapy to figure that out.  My mother was told by a doctor when I was four that I might be retarded.  My grandfather then wrote a poem about me “My Bobby boy, why to you have that somber eye?”  Not until I got an arithmetic test back in the third grade with 100 on it did I begin to realize I was a person of worth.  That was my first ever positive feedback from school.  Math saved my life as it slowly pulled up all my grades over the years, peaking in the high school college wargaming years of math genius turned top wargamer turned top engineer.  Math was the first great insight of my life.  Gary Gygax was my first role model.  Second great insight was to intern in the 1981 Oregon Legislative session.  Nothing but the best of testimony on any given subject, I learned the basics of economic development in the desperate times of the state of Oregon having the highest unemployment rate in the nation and living in the poorest precinct neighborhood in Eugene Oregon ranked last of 378 cities by Rand McNally in 1982.  I learned first hand how the realities of politics were far different than the perception.  Third great insight was the national peace movement list-serves from 2001 to 2005 as a leading member of the Madison Area Peace Coalition, a great lesson in learning about how the military industrial complex really operates and functions, again quite different than the common perceptions.  A fourth great insight lies in the unexpectedly hostile reaction in 2014 by some leading academics of peace and justice, hostile to me personally and to my work.  Although many are keenly interested in my writings and many have very positive reactions to it all, I live the Thomas Kuhn reality of difficulty overcoming pre-existing notions with new insights and awareness.  I live all the time with the John Maynard Keynes corrected quote “The difficulty lays not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”

Resistance to New Ideas

Just as I have been encouraged by Gary Gygax (gaming), Sister Ralph (calculus), Lyman G. Hill, XIII (54 year cycle), Herald Bock and Jerry Rust (politics), Gene Emge (teaching), Peter Bergel (writing), I have been discouraged by others.  Just as my ideas were nourished and flourished in the University of Oregon Eugene political environment up through 1993, I have been generally under-rated and under-appreciated by the Madison Wisconsin University of Wisconsin establishment since then.  There are plenty of exceptions to this broad generalization both ways.  Ageism may play a role, as well as general status difference of an up and coming politician in the eighties in the growing West Coast, versus just another older activist in the stagnant Mid West.

You would think that peace academics would mostly praise and follow up on my extensive work against the military industrial complex, and many do.  Cyber bullying is when a group collectively attacks one person.  Some think three postings a month is too much and use the following words against me:  arrogant, combative, your websites do not meet the threshold I make my students use to write research papers, bragging, claiming to have invented, understanding economics is found in law and ethics not in mathematics, clueless, self-aggrandizement, arrogant self promotion, have you considered running for President, do you ever study nonviolence?, abuse of this list, cherry picking, spamming.

Others say much kinder things:  terrific piece, I’m just saying we ought to all be talking about population and scarce resources a bit more than we do, thank you for your thoughtful and sobering thoughts on selling peace, thanks for getting me back into the loop, so keep up the good work and know that there are people out there who are grateful for your work, you have allies who would agree with you completely, I too think you offer useful insights and support on important issues like the economy and militarism, I appreciate being on your list and enjoy your questions and how you think things through.

I have been amazed at the insularity of many forums at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.  Your status at the University is much more important than your ideas for most of them.  This stands in sharp contrast to places like Oxford or Cambridge where independent scholars are most welcome and appreciated at their numerous forums.

Summary

No new idea is birthed without great difficulty and resistance, and paradigm shifts are often falsely seen as more of the same by some.  Even the new movie “The Distinguished Citizen” has come out showing the difficulties a Nobel Prize winner in Literature experiences in his own home town.  You can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs.  The idea that “if you build a better mousetrap the world will beat a path to your door” doesn’t work without marketing.  Some will complain about self promotion while tolerating it from others on the same list-serve, but actually my several postings about the Nobel Prize quest are very popular on my websites and some complain there is not enough information about myself.  You can never satisfy everyone.

Yes, it pays to read and re-read Thomas Kuhn on Structure of Scientific Revolutions and 10 quotes from that work are included as the seventh and last page of this summary of my main ideas:  https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 4). “Teaching Peace Economics” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Teaching-Peace-Economics,2017119399.aspx

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Texas Hurricane “Harvey”

Harvey on August 25th is the first category four hurricane to hit Texas in the 56 years since Carla on September 11th in 1961.  When the oceanic 27 year half cycle phase of the 54 year Kondratiev cycle comes along, you have to expect repetitive big hurricanes will come along with it.  In American economic and temperature cycle terms the period is 1994 to 2021.  Like its predecessor period, 1940 to 1967, it is a high economic growth cooling temperature period.  In World temperature cycle terms it is 1998 to 2025.  The world predecessor period is 1944 to 1971, with each period starting with a peak temperature above the long term trend line and ending with a trough temperature below the long term trending line.  Ironically, thanks to the new Greenhouse Effect trend line, this period will look like the stable period one quarter century from now in terms of land and the economy, but anything but stable in terms of hurricanes.

Great Hurricane Modern History

The first press releases of this four year press release campaign were about the great Typhoon Haiyan hitting the Philippines in 2013.  This was exactly 54 years after “The 1959 Pacific typhoon season that was regarded as one of the most devastating years for Pacific typhoons on record, with China, Japan and the Philippines sustaining catastrophic losses, (from Wikipedia).”  “One top ten list of Philippines Typhoons has nine of them 1973 or more recent, all during the age of the current strong increase in global warming of the seventies, eighties, and nineties.  Only one other made the top ten, the 1958 typhoon Rita, the only one from the relatively cool fifties and sixties or the twenty year period 1952-1972.  That one is 55 years ago from today’s devastating Typhoon Haiyan suggesting it fits the 55 year cycle discovered by Klyashtorin.”  “Hurricane Sandy of 2012 was the next time the battery in New York flooded after the 1960 event 52 years before.”  “Not included in the above is Hurricane Hugo that dumped 12 inches of rain on North Carolina in September 1989, just 55 years after the last 12 inch North Carolina month of September in 1934.”  These last four quotes are from my November 12, 2013 press release immediately after Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines.  From Wikipedia:  “On making landfall, Haiyan devastated portions of Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines. It is the deadliest Philippine typhoon on record, killing at least 6,300 people in that country alone. In terms of JTWC-estimated 1-minute sustained winds, Haiyan is the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on record.”

Great American Hurricanes

In  2004 PBS broadcast a special suggesting four great tragedies waiting to happen in the United States.  One was a San Francisco earthquake, one was an EF5 tornado hitting Dallas, one was a hurricane hitting New Orleans and the last was a hurricane hitting New York. Those four events have now happened, except that the scale is lower for the San Francisco and Dallas cases.  The EF4 tornado over Dallas suburb Garland on December 26, 2015 was tracking for the downtown Dallas when it lifted.  The F5 over Fort Worth in 1957 is the big one for modern times, suggesting a 58 year cycle.  The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 was easily the most devastating in US history, with the follow-up 83 year later in San Jose much weaker, and the follow-up 108 years later in the Napa Valley weaker still.  108 years is a perfect fit being two 54 year cycles later, 83 is two years off from the three half cycle trend changes perfect of 81 years.

New Orleans had hurricanes in 1893 (2000 deaths) and 1947, 54 year apart, then Katrina (1500 deaths) came four years late in 2005, 58 years later.  Hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012 famously just before the presidential election and two years early after the Battery last flooded 52 years before in 1960.

Texas Hurricanes Harvey and Carla

            Harvey, 56 years after Carla in 1961 is only two years late from a perfect cycle, these are the most recent two category four hurricanes to land on Texas.  Carla was once a CAT 5 but diminished just before landing and quickly dropped to tropical storm level the next day.  Harvey threatens to persist for a week and dump 52 inches of rain over time on Houston, potentially much more devastating, as water is usually more devastating in a hurricane than wind.  This could be worse than Katrina or Sandy in overall impact.  This rainfall greatly exceeded the Hugo levels in 1989 in North Carolina, where 12 inches of rain matches the monthly rainfall total of September 1934 in North Carolina, the same month 55 years before.  That was the first major hurricane after the discovery that the American droughts of 1934 and 1936 were repeating in 1988, starting my whole research effort into the causes of the 54 year cycle.

Summary

Yes, the world temperature cycle exists, yes it works best globally, nearly as well for the US, but very well regionally as well.  My 56 event chart was posted on my academia.edu website in 2013 and included at the end of this general paper about the weather cycle:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5p. from_1997_9p. 2014

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, August 27). “Texas Hurricane ‘Harvey’.” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Texas-Hurricane-Harvey,2017119240.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Post Navigation