bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the tag “environment”

Logic of the Peace Economy

Press Conference on the Nobel Peace Prize

Noon CDT on Friday October 11th, 2019.

Sequoya Library, 4340 Tokay Blvd Madison, WI 53711

 

Overall

Carefully restructuring Keynes (1936) with the military economy findings of Ruth Sivard (1981) and Reuschlein (1986) and the cyclical findings of Nicolai Kondratiev (1926) and Clement Juglar (1858) leads to a new scientific and accurate model of macroeconomics, including a precision model of 77 years in the United States economy.  That constitutes a finding that military spending is lost capital investment to any nation’s economy.  That finding forces a re-examination of how best to defend the nation state.  A 2% annual loss of economic growth (or capital investment) over a 36-year period can cut a nation’s economy in half.  Thus in about a third of a century, excessive military spending can severely weaken a nation.  This demands a reevaluation of national strategy, to keep a skeletal amount of military spending during long periods of peace between major wars.  This alone represents a giant step towards world peace, because the world will have less war damage when it has lower military spending, and less temptation to engage in minor wars when the military option is recognized for its true cost.  Less military means less domestic military economy pressure to justify higher levels of the military budget by use or to meet political power play demands; i.e. less military, less wars, less tension, less political corruption.

Other Major Spinoffs of the Military Economy

Cutting military spending has significant long-term national security benefits, but also avoids a lot of evils of empire.  Many similarities exist among dictatorships, Third World countries, Medievalism, Fascism, and Empire.  Thus many evil ramifications result from militarism and particularly measured by the high level of military spending.  For example, Rome started out as a Republic and ended up a dictatorship, especially as the military was professionalized becoming increasing expensive over time.  America is undergoing a similar pattern, as the Republic and congress is increasingly dominated by the foreign policy of the military presidency.  Sports have become more militarized as Romans took to watching gladiators and Americans have taken to American football with its heavy militaristic parallels throughout the game and its heavy physical toll on the players.  Crime and corruption are strongest in the strongholds of militarism and the military economy domestically and internationally compared to other advanced democracies.  Power and control become dominant values instead of the value of achievement.  Social mobility dies out as the stagnation of wage growth becomes the norm in the slow growth economy.  Whether it is Hollywood, the media, or the political structure, more and more positions seem more inherited than earned.  Obesity, mental health, longevity, teenage births and infant mortality all suffer as anxiety steadily increases over time.

Long Cycle Dominates Planet

The Kondratiev Wave is essential to the long-term precision United States economic model of 77 years.  That model uses a 54-year cycle modelled by a sine wave with an amplitude of 3% of the economy, further confirmed by the 8-10 year Juglar cycle found seven times in the model.  Further the 160-year global temperature show a 55-year moving average has three straight lines before 1910, from 1910 to 1973, and after 1973.  Economic growth shrinks with 27-year heat waves and increases with 27-year cool waves and wars peak at the end of the growth cycle as national economic disparities and wealth have maximized.  The hot cycle ends with major droughts and the (relative) cool cycle begins with major floods.  Hurricanes follow the cycle but on a regional basis, best focused on major cities.  Linear forecasts based on the Greenhouse Effect would be greatly improved by recognizing this cycle.

Listing of 17 major Peace Economics findings:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, October 10), “Logic of the Peace Economy” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Logic-of-the-Peace-Economy,2019195272.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (more than double pace of last year: 127 Strong Web Looks in 12 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 11th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Academia Paper Views Ranked

Overall These Academia.edu 80 listed papers included some power-points, collections, and chapters.  The first one is an overall findings summary, followed by the leading two in downloads, weather cycle, and then followed in order by greatest number of viewings.  One sentence introductions are given above each link.

Paper 1 gives the 17 great findings that led to all the other new material (61 views):

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Paper 2 shows the fifty states economic and political power of the military industrial complex (188 views):

https://www.academia.edu/34337629/MILITARY_COMPLETE_GEOGRAPHY_2017_9_pages_176_downloads-_1_

Paper 3 shows the evolution of Gary Gygax and wargames into D&D and Reuschlein War Theory (254 views):

History of Gary Gygax and War Economy, May June 2017, 8 p.(136 downloads-#2)

Paper 4 shows new climate theory and cycle evidence (311 views):

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

Paper 5 shows 13 correlations that define my military, empire, and cycle research (356 views):

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p_13

Paper 6 shows how militarized our police forces have become and economic racial impact (248 views):

https://www.academia.edu/9028202/MILITARIZED_TERROR_POLICING_2_p._8-17-14

Paper 7 shows how empire economic and politics evolve over time (170 views).

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Paper 8 shows how a 55 year moving average defines the temperature chart (168 views).

https://www.academia.edu/4090273/TEMPERATURE_CYCLE_PROOF_1910-1973-2025_1_p._2013

Paper 9 shows wargame connections between Reuschlein & Gygax, the D&D inventor (157 views).

https://www.academia.edu/32134382/WARGAMER_File_1964-2017_9_pages.pdf

Paper 10 shows the close connection between murder and military rates nationally (142 views).

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

Paper 11 shows the chart and print version of my 40 minute video on Peace Economics (139 views).

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Paper 12 shows 56 numerical examples of the 54 year cycle (137 views):

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yearCycle_3p._13

Paper 13 shows the 7-20-13 ppt used at the World Future Society (124 views):

https://www.academia.edu/4044447/CLIMATE_CYCLE_Weather_Wealth_Wars_18ppt._3p._2013

Paper 14shows the Political Economy listing in the SAGE Encyclopedia of War (120 views):

https://www.academia.edu/28849523/SAGE_POLITICAL_ECONOMY_OF_WAR_2016_6p

Paper 15 shows my entire 2009 doctoral dissertation (112 Views): https://www.academia.edu/606645/DOCTORAL_DISSERTATION_Peace_economics_and_program_change_in_undergraduate_peace_studies_programs_246_p._09

Paper 16 shows my award winning letter to a Chicago area peace group (109 views):

https://www.academia.edu/32905059/DEAR_FUTURE_US_PRESIDENT_Spring_2016_3_pages

Paper 17 shows partial ppt for each of my main focal points (96v):

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7_pages

Paper 18 shows the ppt presentation of my science of economics model in Toronto (95v):

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt_3p._2014

Paper 19 shows the 11 press releases on the military economy issue (94v):

https://www.academia.edu/31717739/MILITARY_ECONOMY_Direct_11_2013-2016_15_p

Paper 20 shows the pathway to the Nobel Prize and follows evidence of their interest (93v):

https://www.academia.edu/31102462/BIOGRAPHY_for_Nobel_Peace_Prize_2013-2017_23_p

Paper 21 shows the cultural connection between war empire and sports violence (88v):

https://www.academia.edu/25679437/FOOTBALL_Baseball_and_Empire_3p._14ppt_5-24-2016

Paper 22 shows the pattern of social decay that springs from military empire (85v):

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Paper 23 shows synopsis and related info about a Peace Economics class (82v):

https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages_2015

Paper 24 shows ppt and related material that leads to my main points (77v):

https://www.academia.edu/36620474/Good_Concepts_May_2018_Update_Ten_Pages

Paper 25 shows the nine fields that compose my interdisciplinary background (71v):

https://www.academia.edu/15878982/RESUME_2016

Paper 26 shows the key documentary pages of the original Peace Economics book (66v):

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

Paper 27 shows my number one viewed press release (64v):

https://www.academia.edu/12755188/DOMESTIC_Military_Effects_list_of_10_1_p._2014

Paper 28 shows the contrast between my theory and that of most peace studies (62v):

https://www.academia.edu/5645092/COMPARISON_Peace_Economics_vs._Peace_Studies_1p.14

Paper 29 shows my second paper at Telos Institute (61v):

https://www.academia.edu/36069836/_Constitutional_Implications_of_War_February_2018_3p

Paper 30 shows several of the best press releases on the topic of Empire (60v).

https://www.academia.edu/28545758/EMPIRE_Explains_America_Best_2013-2016_13p

Paper 31 is very popular overseas for some reason (58v):

https://www.academia.edu/11020728/RANKISM_and_DIGNITY_Robert_Fuller_Concept_1_p._2006

Paper 32 shows how Southern Business Professors can be won over to Peace Economics (58v):

https://www.academia.edu/4044446/EMPIRE_ECONOMICS_Peer_Review_AWARD_12ppt.4p_13-14

Paper 33 from the unpublished work in progress book (57v):

https://www.academia.edu/6044919/KONDRATIEV_WAVE_5_p._WWW_1997_2014

Paper 34 from 4 years of Sunday Afternoons with “Teachings of Jesus” bibles and concordances (55v).

https://www.academia.edu/9979093/JESUS_and_Empire_12-4-05_4_p._2005

Paper 35 summary papers about murder crime and violence in an empire society (53v):

https://www.academia.edu/27198787/VIOLENT_Society_in_the_United_States_seven_papers_2014-16

Paper 36 how military states candidates dominate America (53v).

https://www.academia.edu/20604100/POLITICAL_Military_Presidency_1999_7p

Paper 37 hundred year details of how precision peace economics plays out (50v).

https://www.academia.edu/4044532/HISTORY_Presidents_Military_Economy_1910-2009_3p._2013

Paper 38 from SAGE Encyclopedia of War and recommended by academic with 1 million views (47v):

https://www.academia.edu/29175791/SAGE_Military_Keynesianism_October_12_2016_5_p

Paper 39 Reuschlein curve and other ways to manage military budget with peace economics (45v):

https://www.academia.edu/4475604/DEFENSE_STRATEGY_Peace_Economics_1986-2015_8_p._

Paper 40 both key theories in one place (45v):

https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt._29_slide_5_p._2017

Paper 41 puts the “con” in conservative, how Dems were robbed two elections in a row (45v).

https://www.academia.edu/30092060/ELECTION_Stealing_2004_and_2000_24_pages_2004.doc

Paper 42 press releases that give technical support to peace economics (44v):

https://www.academia.edu/23034796/TECHNICAL_Peace_Economics_8p._2014-2016

Paper 43 how a militarized culture demands militarized sports (43v).

https://www.academia.edu/5392466/FOOTBALL_Baseball_and_Empire_2_p._2013

Paper 44 civilizations rise and fall with long term temperature changes (42v).

https://www.academia.edu/4485586/CIVILIZATION_Changes_with_Climate_4p._RE_1999

Paper 45 collected works on the path to the peace prize (40v):

https://www.academia.edu/30423568/NOBEL_PEACE_PRIZE_Collected_Works_2014-2016_18p._40views

Paper 46 describes key evidence about peace economics (40v).

https://www.academia.edu/23431506/PROOF_PEACE_ECONOMICS_Summary_1_p._7-12-14

Paper 47 why military hated Kennedy enough to kill him (39v).

https://www.academia.edu/5184189/KENNEDY_50th_Anniversary_Tribute_12ppt._2_p._2013

Paper 48 collection of press releases on the topic (39v).

https://www.academia.edu/30864393/Weather_Wealth_And_Wars_2013-2016_25_p

Paper 49 even interest rates are proportional to military spending in the late nineties (39v).

https://www.academia.edu/29770996/HIGH_INTEREST_Releases_2013-2014_12p._11_2016

Paper 50 economists have given up on the search for a science (38v).

https://www.academia.edu/30657234/Nobel_Economics_Prize_Perversion_2016_8_p

Paper 51 semester long three credit class synopsis plus (38v).

https://www.academia.edu/5415281/CLASS_Empire_Economics_and_Climate_31_classdays_2_p._13

Paper 52 how the Peace Prize could lead to Physics and Economics Prizes, first ever threesome (37v).

https://www.academia.edu/4485636/NOBEL_Prize_Pathways_2014

Paper 53 lyrics lead the way (37v).

https://www.academia.edu/5592279/PEACE_SONGS_Favorite_2014

Paper 54 featured speaker at 70th anniversary (35v).

https://www.academia.edu/15462740/HIROSHIMA_Featured_Speech_Psychology_of_Empire_2015

Paper 55 political economic cycle reasons for war (33v).

https://www.academia.edu/28245203/WAR_Decision_Mechanisms_7_Papers_2013-2016_8p

Paper 56 first domino military economics leads to many social ills of empire (32v).

https://www.academia.edu/31815063/Military_Economy_Corollaries_8_2013-2017_9_pages

Paper 57 just the facts for those who erroneously think war brought us out of Depression (31v).

https://www.academia.edu/4044531/ROOSEVELT_Depression_War_Unpacking_Myths_1p.13

Paper 58 general peace economics theory (31v).

https://www.academia.edu/22797437/PUBLIC_RELEASES_Key_Peace_Economics_6p._2014-15

Paper 59 detailed analysis of older responses to my press release and other work (30v).

https://www.academia.edu/34794541/CHANGING_WORLD_VIEWS_2013-2017_13p._30_views_

Paper 60 making peace economics a degree program (29v).

https://www.academia.edu/5392455/DEGREE_Real_Economy_Curriculum_rev.1-8-14_12ppt_2p.14

Paper 61 there’s more to global warming than just greenhouse effect (28v).

https://www.academia.edu/7146962/THIRD_WAY_Global_Warming_20ppt_2014

Paper 62 cold blooded murder is given new meaning (28v).

https://www.academia.edu/5479721/WARS_Coldest_Year_Weather_Wealth_and_Wars_2p._1999

Paper 63 fees may be subject to prizes won (27v).

https://www.academia.edu/5043878/SPEAKING_Request_Email_bobreuschlein_at_gmail.com_2p._

Paper 64 Lucy Webster (famous world federalist) was an early fan and editor of this (25v):

https://www.academia.edu/606646/ECAAR_NewsNetwork_1_p._2003

Paper 65 number phobia is rampant (90%) in the world (22v).

https://www.academia.edu/5925707/NUMBERS_Words_Discrimination_2_p._2014

Paper 66 Manufacturing is to the Midwest as military and financial is to the coastal states (20v).

https://www.academia.edu/5740273/MIDWEST_and_the_Military_3_pages_2005

Paper 67 the second most important work after Peace Economics 1986 was in 1991 (18v).

https://www.academia.edu/4485559/NATURAL_GLOBAL_WARMING_CYCLE_10_p._1991

Paper 68 How I followed the rush by the Nobel Committee to follow me (18v).

https://www.academia.edu/37572795/Following_Nobel_Norwegians_Detail_10-8-18_release_4_pages

Paper 69 How three different cycles become one (18v):

https://www.academia.edu/37064850/Weather_Wealth_and_Wars_54_Year_Cycle_Unified_7-21-18_2p

Paper 70 Evaporation in unequal over land and ocean, and energy must be balanced in a cycle (16v).

https://www.academia.edu/7710046/EVAPORATION_makes_the_world_change_3_pages_1997

Paper 71 military is unhealthy for even the peacetime people (16v).

https://www.academia.edu/4273814/HEALTH_and_EMPIRE_6_ppt._1_p._2013

Paper 72 early years of this press release format (16v).

https://www.academia.edu/5710604/GREAT_YEARS_2013-2014_Peace_Economics_3p._2014

Paper 73 “othering” leads to wars and leads to killing those who are black (11v).

https://www.academia.edu/12824537/FERGUSON_JURY_Mistakes_list_of_10_2014

Paper 74 Flyover country once lead the way to American prosperity (11v).

https://www.academia.edu/9946682/Midwest_and_the_Military_Budget_2_p._2005

Paper 75 climate change leads to economic change, heat slows us all down (10v).

https://www.academia.edu/4862993/CLIMATE_Effects_ECONOMY_5_p._1999

Paper 76 the states respond politically to the military budget (8v).

https://www.academia.edu/38937971/Military_Geography_16ppt_on_2_pages_4-7-19 

Paper 77 “hands up don’t shoot” verified by prosecutor on December 4th radio cast (8v).

https://www.academia.edu/9999149/FERGUSON_Jury_Mistakes_12-7-14_2_p._2014

Paper 78 early evaluation of audience interests (8v).

https://www.academia.edu/8062287/VIEWINGS_Through_August_22_2014_3_p._

Paper 79 normal 20 year cooling period reduced to 15 years by global warming (8v).

https://www.academia.edu/6733709/EARTH_CYCLE_15_YEAR_WARMING_PAUSE_5_p._2014

Paper 80 Hurricane Harvey leads the burst of super-hurricanes that all follow cycle pattern (0v).

https://www.academia.edu/40420670/Summer_2019_Views_Leading_2016-2017_Press_Releases_12_p

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 30), “Academia Paper Views Ranked” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Academia-Paper-Views-Ranked,2019195013.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 125 Strong Web Looks in 12 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info: www.realeconomy.com

 

Summer 2019 Leading Views

Overall These 2016-2017 older Press Releases long dropped from the current 50 list were the most in demand this summer from July 9 to September 20.  Here are summaries of the top 11 older releases for these 73 days.  4470 views total non-current added views to 180 older releases.

Texas Hurricane “Harvey”  8-27-17 (90 views)

Harvey, 56 years after Carla in 1961 is only two years long from a perfect 54 year cycle, these are the most recent two category four hurricanes to land on Texas.  Harvey threatens to stay on the coast for a week and dump 52 inches of rain over Houston, double prior records, much more devastating, as water is usually more devastating in a hurricane than wind.  This could be worse than Katrina or Sandy in overall impact.  This rainfall exceeded the Hugo levels in 1989 in North Carolina, where 12 inches of rain matches the monthly rainfall total of September 1934 in North Carolina, the same month 55 years before.

Deep Politics of Iraq War 6-4-16 (75 views)

In danger of proving that all weapons of mass destruction had been eliminated, Operation Desert Fox was launched in December 1998.  When Saddam retaliated by kicking the inspectors out of Iraq, the US preserved the illusion that some weapons of mass destruction remained keeping Hussein in his box of sanctions.

Fraud in the Iraq War of 2003, The False War Resolution of October 2002 The war resolution requires the president to certify two things before launching a war.  One was there was a threat of weapons of mass destruction, and two that there was a connection to the attacks on September 11, 2001.  The Downing Street Memos show than Tony Blair and George Bush agreed to invade Iraq in April 2002.  Bombing doubled the rate in May 2002.  In August, Cheney started talking about nuclear weapons, the one thing inspectors agreed had been 100% eliminated in 1998.

Football Baseball and War 5-28-16 (65 views)

World War II changed everything.  Japan was forced to demilitarize, adopting a constitution against war.  They adopted baseball as their number one sport.  In 2015 on our trip to Japan that year, we saw from the train numerous fields of baseball players practicing all over Japan.  In the sixties, with glorification of World War II everywhere in the culture, America began to prefer football over baseball as the new number one sport.  Now, traveling in America, kids practicing football can be seen all over.

NFL Football Mimics War 10 reasons are cited in the press release, even comparing Roman Gladiators with NFL Football Players.

Teaching Peace Economics  9-4-17 (61 views)

Living with Thomas Kuhn’s Insights When Thomas Kuhn wrote “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” he gave me the guideposts to understanding the resistance of those in the world around me when I came out with my first strong findings in my short book “Peace Economics” in 1986.

Resistance to New Ideas I have been amazed at the insularity of many forums at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.  Your status at the University is much more important than your ideas for most of them.  This stands in sharp contrast to places like Oxford or Cambridge where independent scholars are welcome and appreciated at their numerous forums.

Thirty Year Class Warfare 10-18-16 (58 views)

Who knew when they voted for Ronald Reagan that they would be voting for thirty years of class warfare?  Ronald Reagan’s budget director David Stockman wrote a tell all book explaining that the three year fazed in tax cut was a “Trojan Horse” for bringing the top tax rate on the rich down from 70% to 28%.  We now know the top 1% have quadrupled their income and stifled the middle class thanks to Reagan policies.

SAGE Military Keynesianism shows that the problem with military spending is that it overpays and gets the best and brightest scientists and engineers and then does not give a product back into the economic mainstream.  Military resources deplete investment capital reducing the economic growth rate.

Living History of the CIA 4-16-16 (56 views)

Gary Webb came to Madison on his book tour after his “Dark Alliance” series in the San Jose Mercury News.  I asked why the press was so hard on him, and he responded that the CIA had a program called Operation Mockingbird to co-opt the press.  He further stated that the Church Committee of the seventies had documented 400 press connections to the CIA.  When I became a leading member of Madison’s anti-war group, I actively cross listed numerous articles by national and local peace list-serves.  It was quite an education, as my favorite pieces were about the lobby groups driving the whole war process, JINSA, CSP, and especially PNAC, Project for a New American Century.  All the big political names were in these groups.

Nobel Peace Year Highlights 10-1-17 (55 views)

Strange pattern on my website might indicate Nobel is double checking me out right now, Saturday afternoon 9-23-17 about 2pm Oslo time, and Monday evening 9-25-17 between 8pm and midnight, someone(s) read all 24 press releases since last Christmas.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee reportedly chooses in August according to Jim Murphy, announces October 6 Friday.  Since both days are the same 24 in a row, it’s hard to imagine that as anything but a double check by two of the five Norwegian politicians that make the decision. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday 6 October, 11:00 a.m. Norway time (4am Madison time CDT).

Letter to Nobel Committee 10-5-16 (51 views)

The precision findings that demand a “reduction of armies” for national survival are these two:

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

https://www.academia.edu/4475604/DEFENSE_STRATEGY_Chapter_Peace_Economics_7_p._1986

Benefits of Awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Robert Reuschlein

The million-dollar prize and publicity would make it possible to introduce the world to a new way of thinking about military spending, the economy, and global warming.  With the staff to research new stock market strategies and national strategies to finally, force politicians to recognize the huge drawbacks to keeping military spending excessively high for long periods, especially in peacetime but also in wartime.

CNN Top Stories: All Empire 1-2-16 (51 views)

Rise of Islamic State when world empire America invaded Saddam Hussein’s Iraq there was no Al Qaeda in Iraq, but in the ensuing chaos their quickly arose a chapter of Al Qaeda that sought to promote war between the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam.  Gay Marriage Supreme Court Decision The main theory of empire from right wing sources is that moral decay has led to the current state of America. Tolerating gay marriage is a sign of the moral decay of America.  Paris Terror Assaults Because of colonial involvement of France and Britain in the Middle East, decades of chickens coming home to roost.  Mass Shootings of four or more individuals totaled 355 late in the year. High levels of military spending as an indicator of empire shows that crime is a function of empire.  Cops Killing Unarmed Blacks The nature of our police forces have changed over the decades to include tactics heretofore reserved for our overseas forces.

Game Master Gygax History 5-14-17 (50 views)

Stretching the Imagination  The Role Playing Games Industry (Dungeons and Dragons) emerged from war gaming and the discipline and imagination of Gary Gygax (1938-2008) of Lake Geneva Wisconsin.  In 1966, Gygax founded the International Federation of Wargaming (IFW) 1967-1973 and encouraged fellow legend of wargaming Robert Reuschlein to join that group that became the largest wargaming group of its time. Gary Gygax developed the first successful wargaming convention in 1968, GenCon, starting with 100 wargamers, now featuring 50,000 attendees in Indianapolis each year.  Gary developed “Dungeons and Dragons” in 1974.

War Decision Mechanisms 9-9-16 (50 views)

Major War Cycle, 54 Years Long, Major Wars Happen in Cold Years (on 54 year cycle)

Low Level Military Defense (keeps economy stronger longer)

National Security State Born in a sociology class on power structure.  I compared Secretaries of State and Defense since World War Two in 1985 and the pattern continues today.  State tends to be hawkish and Defense tends to be dovish.  This is the reverse of most public opinion.  CIA Presidents: Obama Clinton Bush Sr. War and Occupy Economics (40% economic reduction under occupation)

The Worthlessness of War (few innovations, huge capital waste)   

The Complete Texts of These 11 Press Releases: https://www.academia.edu/40420670/Summer_2019_Views_Leading_2016-2017_Press_Releases_12_p

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 23), “Summer 2019 Leading Views” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Summer-2019-Leading-Views,2019194815.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 121 Strong Web Looks in 11.7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Themes of Peace Economics

Rewriting History and Education

When a paradigm shifting new knowledge emerges it requires a lot of rewriting and re-educating to allow people to become familiar with the new world perspective that is needed.  Military Keynesianism is so deeply embedded in our common knowledge that is takes a lot of re-evaluation to correct the endless stream of misunderstandings.  It is fascinating to watch even the left-wing pundits of MSNBC parrot again and again that the one thing Trump has going for him is the good economy.  Other than Steve Rattner on the “Morning Joe” show few even bother to examine in detail how false that commonly accepted narrative is.  And they all fail to note that military spending changes are the main underlying explanation for much of the real true story.

Empire Themes

History tends to be anecdotal and biographical, often centered on the foibles of the individual person or individual situation and geography of the nation, terrain, or continent.  There is strong resistance to theory building that emphasizes consistencies in the origin and nature of war fighting and preparation for wars.  We want to think that human choice is in charge, not larger forces like economics and natural cycle timing.  We like to think we are masters of our own fate, not pawns in a larger framework.  We will cling to anecdotal exceptions to broader theories rather than accept the strong natural tendencies that override our individuality.  The empire concept allows us to examine how top dog elitism can permeate a culture and lead to the many ills that arise as an empire gradually decays under the pressure of relentless militarism and the dead-end military economy.

Climate Themes

It is amazing that something so common as evaporation differences between land and ocean can lead to profound shifts over time in natural events, economic growth rates, and evolutions in social structure that lead to historically changes of many kinds but especially in the timing of wars.  We so readily accept how are lives are changed by day and night, the four seasons, and evens social constructs like the week month calendar and year.  We live on a planet dominated by water and oceans in so many ways, with 71% of the Earth’s surface covered by water and 67% water in our bodies and 91% water in plants.  Thanks to evaporation we can see our breath in winter and use sweat to cool our bodies in summer.  Lacking sweats glands, dogs use their wet tongues to regulate heat.  Humans seek sprinklers and cool bodies of water to cool off.  We locate our cities near water for these and many other purposes including ease of transportation.  Dehydration can kill us.  Lack of water gives us the high heat of our deserts.

Military Themes

The military is one of our most admired among occupations and institutions.  We cling strongly to this despite the chaos and arbitrary carnage and barbarity of war and war fighting.  Steady bravery in the face of death and destruction is greatly admired and rewarded with elaborate ceremonies and remembrances.  Peace Economics looks at the transference of these behaviors and corruptions to domestic politics, criminal conduct, and social disorders of many kinds that ensue from militarism and the demonizing of others leading to racial sexual religious and ethnic problems and discriminations.

Research Themes

This whole section is from the J.W. Forrester wiki:

Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems is a 1971 paper by Jay Wright Forrester. In it, Forrester argues that the use of computerized system models to inform social policy is far superior to simple debate, both in generating insight into the root causes of problems and in understanding the likely effects of proposed solutions.

Forrester characterizes normal debate and discussion as being dominated by inexact mental models:

The mental model is fuzzy. It is incomplete. It is imprecisely stated. Furthermore, within one individual, a mental model changes with time and even during the flow of a single conversation. The human mind assembles a few relationships to fit the context of a discussion. As the subject shifts so does the model. When only a single topic is being discussed, each participant in a conversation employs a different mental model to interpret the subject. Fundamental assumptions differ but are never brought into the open. Goals are different and are left unstated. It is little wonder that compromise takes so long. And it is not surprising that consensus leads to laws and programs that fail in their objectives or produce new difficulties greater than those that have been relieved.

Empire and Climate Economics In 2017 Presentations: https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_&_CLIMATE_Economics_29slide_5p._2017

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 2), “Themes of Peace Economics” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Themes-of-Peace-Economics,2019194356.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 106 Strong Web Looks in 11 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Fascism Climate Emergency

Crisis of the Times

Strongmen are rising all over the world, as democracy retreats, just as the climate crisis emerges with ferocity.

First California had record fires, then the Canadian prairies caught fire giving a hazy sky over the Midwest where I live, then Siberia, then the Amazon fires started.  Those last fires were manmade, as a climate denier like America’s Trump took power in Brazil.  That event encouraged the farmers to reclaim farmland from the forest.  Just like that fascism creates a climate emergency.  This means more than ever mankind needs to recognize my work creating accurate models of economics and the 54-year climate cycle that are each an order of magnitude better than the existing state of each art.  In fact, economists do not even believe a science of economics is even possible.  But a systems thinking engineer can do what the economists could not do.  With Greenland melting ten years ahead of schedule, clearly the climate crisis today is what fascism in Europe and Japan was 80 years ago, something that requires all of civilization to give it their best effort.  And each danger is better met with the strength that comes from low military spending strong economies unhindered by the restrictions of fascism, crime, social inequality, poor health, and corruption that spring from excessive militarism.

United States Turning Point

The United States of America faces an existential crisis point in the summer of the 50th anniversary of the moon-landing and the seventy-fifth anniversary of the D-Day invasion to recapture France from the Nazis.  A similar national effort is now needed to face the crisis of our times brought about by the Greenhouse effect.  Corrupt political forces like those of the Weimar Republic in Germany in the twenties have seized control of the Senate and Presidency of the largest economy in North America.

What America Needs

America needs a Truth and Reconciliation Commission for its age of empire like the one used in South Africa for the necessary healing to take place after Apartheid.  The excesses of militarism should not be papered over, whitewashed, and swept under the carpet, rather they should be faced up to squarely.  The world recognizes this much better than anyone in the United States can even dream about.  There are many voices that are ignored by the establishment and only tinkered with, poked and prodded, by the mainstream press.  The Church Commission of the seventies was a good place to start, too soon forgotten.

Showings Needed

Pulling back from the military brink comes easy to those who realize excessive militarism can poison the socioeconomic system and the future belongs to the low military spending nations.  Knowing the most likely times for major wars to occur and why they do so can help keep a nation from premature militarism or excessive defense measures during times of expected peace.  Showing that high military spending can lead to militaristic politics, high crime, and poor national health is an important part of the whole picture.  We can all spiral up together or we can spiral down together.

First Great Climate Cycle Presentation Inspired by Hurricane Sandy In 2012:

https://www.academia.edu/4044447/CLIMATE_CYCLE_WeatherWealthWars18ppt.3p.2013

Accurate Economics Model That Replaces Outdated Military Keynesianism In 2014:

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt3p.2014

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 27), “Fascism Climate Emergency” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Fascism-Climate-Emergency,2019194224.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 101 Strong Web Looks in 11 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Important to Climate Change

Overview

I go to events where people explain their individual global warming projections as they see the greenhouse effect theory affects the global temperature over time.  They always project based on the average rate of increase straight line.  This always gives an inaccurate fit in the current period, usually indicating a curve rising much faster than it is rising during the current period.  I then go to them after the lecture and explain to them that we are in a special short-term situation where the growth of temperature is less than the projected average growth.  I explain the cycle and give them a graph showing how accurate the cycle is.  Then they ignore me.  Sometimes I see them go to my websites and read up on my work, but they still revert to form and ignore me after giving it a lot of thought.  They stay trapped in their pre-existing frame of mind.  This is unfortunate.  Ignoring my work only leads to inaccuracies and continued naïve planning for the unique situations faced by each nation, each region, each city.  Including the 54-year cycle and recognizing the application of the cycle makes possible much more accurate long-term forecasts of the many major natural, economic, and political events of our times.  This will save money and lives.  Some say that history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.  That is a half-truth, because many situations do approximately repeat again on cycle time.  Imagine what a confused world we would live in if we could not count on the sunrise and the sunset or the coming and going of the seasons.  Someday the whole world will look at the events of the 54-year cycle as matter of fact as day and night and winter and summer.  That day will come much sooner if I win a major prize like the Nobel, Pulitzer, or MacArthur, or one of my books became a bestseller.

Natural Events

Evaporation of water happens to be the number use of solar radiation hitting the Earth.  Evaporation happens more over oceans than over land because of the lower amount of water over land.  This leaves more radiation for warming the surface over land than over water.  An estimated three times as much warming occurs initially over land compared to water.  But as land warms faster, eventually the ocean reacts to bring the whole Earth back into energy balance.  Because of varying geography over the planet, these balancing forces like rain, wind belts, ocean currents and mountains create unique circumstances in various parts of the Earth over the course of a 54-year cycle.  This makes major events like hurricanes, earthquakes, blizzards, floods, droughts, and volcanoes ebb and flow and peak at certain times in the cycle in certain places.  These events can be charted and proximately estimated to recur at certain times.  These patterns have enormous consequences for human planning and accommodating to minimize the damage and lives lost when such events occur.

Economic Events

Because high heat has a sluggish impact on the work of the human animal, hot and cold weather, tropical and temperate zones, dry hot deserts and cool humid forests, all have an impact on human output economically.  At the macro level these effects average out to show slow steady evolution of the economic growth rate over the course of the 54-year cycle.  Depressions and booms are accentuated by either long term cooling or heating trends with slight cooling helping economic growth and slight heating slowing economic growth.  Stocks and employment vary with these undercurrents.  Understanding things like how the May day to Halloween slowdown in stock markets occur worldwide can begin to better predict markets leading to greater stability.  Many fortunes will be made or lost applying these effects to economic models.

War and Social Change Events

Human exuberance and lethargy, confidence and anxiety changes as economic booms lead to new countries emerging as world leaders and competition among nations leads to war and social change tensions.  These forces ebb and flow with the changes in the 54-year cycle.  Revolutions don’t happen when despair is widespread, they occur when things begin to change for the better.  Peck order imperatives exist throughout the animal kingdom and also among human societies and nations.  Change requires struggle, whether that be by social movement, economic trade, or by war.  Knowing when these impacts are most likely can greatly reduce the need for excessive and premature war preparations due to uncertainty and fear, leading to the “reduction of armies” mentioned in Alfred Nobel’s will as a justification for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Better understanding of natural economic and social effects can greatly reduce the need for large armies.

Conclusions

The Reuschlein economic model, defense strategy models, and evaporation cycle explanations can all lead to reduced world tensions and the reduction of armies.  The urgent need for taming global warming requires both action and understanding, and many huge mistakes will be made without modeling for the land ocean interaction caused by evaporation differences that play out over the course of 54-years and the many different geographies of planet Earth and the planet’s peoples.

Basic information about the Climate/Economy/War Cycle:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 14), “Important to Climate Change” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Important-to-Climate-Change,2019193912.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 93 Strong Web Looks in 10+ months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Popular Old Press Releases

Overview

Press Releases are initially sent out to a list of 7000 and my average viewership is 900 per press release, usually front loaded in the first days, then weeks, then months of release.  Total viewership will exceed 200,000 in about a month.  I monitor the progress of views of my press releases several times a day since 2013.  I am only able to see totals for the most recent 50 press releases at a time.  So periodically, usually about once a year, I ask for the whole total list of 220 press releases, and then update my files for increased viewings of the older than current 50 press releases.  This shows me how amazingly popular some older press releases have become.  This is a report on how the 26,834 new views from October 4, 2017 to July 9, 2019 have shown which releases have become very popular in the after 50 category over the last 21 months.  This tends to show what those seriously interested in my work are reading or referring to others to read.

Popular Older Releases

The top 20 popular older releases are an amazing and revealing assortment.  While they range from #9 to #91 on the overall total list, so they are all in the top one hundred, and average rank 52 with average view totals of 1132 each and a range of 891 to 1738.  The 375 views average of this update represents 33% of the average total views!  By comparison, the top twenty press releases on the overall list average 2070 and includes only three of these top twenty hot oldies.  So initial and enduring impressions vary a lot.  And the overall list average has only 13% of these last 21-month updates.

Rank Order Older Releases by Update Views

      Rank Views 2017-2019 Total Views All Rank
1 646 1/23/2016 CIAPresidents 2:33am 1738 37% 9
2 514 5/28/2016 FootballBaseballWar 10 1322 39% 23
3 513 3/19/2016 NobelPrizeWatch 12am 1150 45% 40
4 497 8/26/2014 Prediction 2:10am 1564 32% 12
5 383 3/12/2016 TechnicalPeaceEcon 12 939 41% 71
6 382 11/29/2015 ViolenceCycle 12:05am 919 42% 81
7 376 2/28/2015 WalkerWorkDignity 3am 1098 34% 47
8 375 1/2/2016 CNNTop5AllEmpire 4:40 879 43% 91
9 354 4/2/2016 ScientificRevolution 12 931 38% 75
10 340 6/4/2016 DeepPoliticsIraq 4:21am 1214 28% 31
11 328 4/16/2016 CIALiveHistory 12:53am 944 35% 70
12 323 12/21/2014 10ScientificRevolution 1010 32% 62
13 317 4/23/2016 FuturePresident 11:20 911 35% 84
14 314 4/30/2016 ParadigmShiftsPE 4:45 957 33% 67
15 311 10/18/2016 ClassWarfare 5:06am 1495 21% 16
16 311 4/28/2015 NepalChile 12:00am 906 34% 86
17 310 5/14/2014 EugenePolitician 2pm 1099 28% 46
18 303 1/3/2015 ReligionEmpire 12:30 1098 28% 48
19 300 9/8/2014 10HeatHurts 11:40am 952 32% 69
20 298 10/5/2016 NobelPrizeLetter 2:10 1527 20% 15

Leading Older Releases:

“CIA Presidents: Obama Clinton” 1-23-16 leads the way with the revelations that both Democratic Party US Presidents since the end of the Cold War worked with the CIA.  These two, Clinton and Obama, also are the first elected Presidents since World War II that do not come from above average military spending per capita home states.  Their compromise with empire is not the military economy but the intelligence agencies.  This is a shift parallel with the Defense Research Institutions list from Massachusetts Institute of Technology topping the list in the Cold War and Johns Hopkins University of Baltimore topping the list with the US the sole superpower after the Cold War.  The move is from weapons engineering primacy to foreign policy primacy respectively.  George Bush, sr. as former head of the CIA (1975-1976) was also a CIA President and probably worked for the CIA in the early sixties, and there may have been others, as the CIA is very secretive.

“Football, Baseball, and War” 5-28-16

This second ranked release shows the importance of cultural dominance of an appropriate sport for an empire to have.  As USA moved from a peacetime economy between wars to the perpetual militarism of empire, so too it moved from artistic Baseball as the number one sport to American Football with all its militaristic language and brute force techniques that strongly resemble those of modern warfare.

“Nobel Peace Prize Watch” 3-19-16

This third ranked release tells the exciting story of reading into the secretive deliberations of the Norwegian Nobel Committee just by following closely the activity on my various websites.  This explains how and why I came to believe Thorbjorn Jagland took the early assignment to follow my Nobel Peace Prize nomination in early 2016.

“SF Earthquake Predicted” 8-26-14

This fourth ranked release follows the history of prediction of events with my global warming cycle theory.  Includes the June 16, 1991 Mount Pinatuba eruption that confirmed my volcanic cycle theory just after the release of my “Natural Global Warming” paper on May 7, 1991.  Goes on to anticipate the San Francisco earthquake repetition of 1906 two cycles later in 2014, precisely 108 years later, but at a low magnitude the second time.

“Technical Peace Economics” 3-12-16

This fifth ranked release is an early summary of my key findings picked up and published by the “Nonviolent Change Journal Spring 2016 Edition, May 5, 2016.”  Includes my thirteen defining correlations and the 56 cycle events and world temperature graph with perfect fitting 55 year moving average found in the academia.edu complete paper.

“War and Violence Period Cycle” 11-29-15

This sixth ranked release focuses on the economic and political cycles that produce the war cycle, the civil rights cycle, and other patterns.

“Scott Walker of Wisconsin” 2-28-15

This seventh ranked release focuses on the union busting bill of the Tea Party darling Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin who sprung a surprise ALEC extreme bill on the state right after the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2011, leading to protests of at least 10,000 daily for four weeks, including the final protest of 150,000. 

“CNN Stories:  All Empire” 1-2-16

This eighth ranked release focuses on the top five CNN stories of 2015; Rise of the Islamic State, Supreme Court Gay Marriage Decision (reflects right wing moral decay theory of empire), Paris Terror Assaults, Mass Shootings, Cops Killing Unarmed Blacks.

“Scientific Revolution Type” 4-2-16

This ninth ranked release focuses on my ten-point summary of Thomas Kuhn’s classic “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” and my own thoughts on “Ten Truths About Research.”

“Deep Politics of Iraq War” 6-4-16

This tenth ranked release focuses the story of how the CIA brought Saddam Hussein to power, used him against Iran, and then tricked him into invading Kuwait.  The rest of the story is more familiar.

Additional information about Stages of Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 24), “Popular Old Press Releases” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Popular-Old-Press-Releases,2019183228.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 81 Web Looks in 10 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Earthquake Hurricane Update

Overview

The 54-year long cycle shows up in many ways.  The normal timespan is 54 years, but it really is sometimes 27 years or sometimes 108 years.  Every 27 years global warming goes from a hot trend to a cool trend and the turning points are often marked by major hurricanes, focused on major US cities.  Flooding is considered the major threat in a hurricane, so historical flooding patterns are a main marker of the pattern.  108-year trends occur in blizzards and volcanoes because every other 54-year cycle comes when global warming is coming from the land or the ocean and Northeastern blizzards in the US or southwestern Pacific volcanoes tend to be by oceans.  This is because every other 54 year cycle is led by the Southern or Northern Hemisphere, with Southern meaning more coastal and oceanic and Northern meaning more inland and land based, just like the two Hemispheres tend to be with most of the Earth’s land in the North, and most of the Earth’s ocean in the South.  Lately, because of global warming, there have been more 27-year events rather than 54-year events.

Earthquakes

The Greater Los Angeles area had a 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Northridge in 1994 with 60 deaths and thousands injured.  Twenty-five years later, halfway to Las Vegas, the Ridgecrest earthquake of 7.1 magnitude hit in a largely unpopulated area.  That is just two years off a perfect 27-year cycle.  For comparison, the Great San Francisco 1906 earthquake had a magnitude of 7.9.  The 1989 “repeat” had a magnitude of 6.9 and collapsed the Bay Area Bridge, just two years long on the 81-year anniversary of three 27s.  Then the 108-year anniversary had a mild 6.0 quake in South Napa in 2014.  Because of the wide variance in magnitudes, the cyclic behavior of earthquakes is less rigorously scientific than other natural phenomena such as blizzards, volcanoes, hurricanes, droughts, and floods. See Water Cycle reference at the end of this release.

Hurricanes

Puerto Rico was devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017, funds for recovery estimated $100 billion, with only $10 billion delivered so far.  North Carolina was devastated by Hurricane Florence in 2018.  Both had as a predecessor Hurricane Hugo in 1989, 28 and 29 years before respectively.  These are very good fits for the 27-year cycle, only one year or two years off, respectively.  Hugo clipped a corner of Puerto Rico and went on to dump a foot of rain on North Carolina.  Maria was much worse for Puerto Rico and Florence was much worse for North Carolina with two feet of rain over most of the state.  Both show the worsening trend of global warming overall, yet the cyclical nature of how often these major events recur.

Iowa Mississippi Floods

Iowa public radio said “Farmer’s concern is understandable because this year’s corn planting progress is two weeks behind the five-year average, and tardiest since 1995” because of excessive rain.  So, a major impact of these excessive upper Midwest rains is a return to the Mississippi floods years of 1993 and 1995, with the quad cities of Iowa and Illinois facing record flood levels in 2019.  That suggests a 26 year repeat of the 1993 flood (the greater one of the 1993 and 1995 floods).  That’s only one year off the perfect 27-year repeat cycle.  Add to this the Hurricane Barry floods in Louisiana this last weekend (landfall July 13, 2019) with state capital Baton Rouge (upriver of New Orleans) facing record flood levels, also on this 26-year cycle.  According to Iowa public radio “Conditions are even worse in neighboring states. Illinois has planted only 35 percent of its intended corn acreage, Nebraska 70 percent and Missouri 62 percent. Minnesota has two-thirds planted. South Dakota’s 25 percent planted compares to the five-year average of 90-percent complete by this stage of the growing season.”  Interstate 80, a major San Francisco Chicago New York highway was completely flooded throughout much of Iowa recently after weeks of storms coming through.

Cycle Summary

All these major events recently confirm two things.  1) That the pace of the cycle is shortening more and more to the 27-year cycle from a more normal 54-year cycle thanks to global warming trends which have shown a doubling of the pace since 1973. 2) Mounting evidence shows the next global warming acceleration will begin about 2025 and even the many signs of dismal news this century must be taken in the context of a relative slowdown since 1998 of the global trend will be reversed in 2025 as the current 1994-2021 relative cooling trend of the cycle good for economic growth will go into a 2021-2048 relative warming trend bad for economic growth.  Turnarounds tend to show a four-year delay, making 1917, 1944, 1998, and 2025 the endpoints of preceding trends even though multi-year averaging tens to show 1913, 1940, 1994, and 2021 as the true turning points from a longer-term perspective.  This kind of like the exaggerated wake of a boat after turning showing up a little later than the actual turn.  We on the water planet must realize that the 71% of Earth’s surface dominated by ocean acts like a shock absorber to the warming cycle system.  Transfer of energy between the deep ocean and the surface ocean helps ensure a return to natural energy balance after 27 years of land overheating leading to 27 years of oceanic cooling.  Not counting the artic poles, land tends get about 10% more rain than ocean overall, thanks to mountains.  Rain over the poles is a tiny fraction of that over the tropics.

Additional information about Global Warming Cycle (5 p.) and important accuracy addenda (4 p.):

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 17), “Earthquake Hurricane Update” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Earthquake-Hurricane-Update,2019182966.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 79 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

What Does Peace Econ Show?

Overview

Peace Economics starts with the concept that military spending diverts manufacturing economic growth into a non-productive service of national defense of the same economic size.  That is confirmed by Ruth Sivard’s bar charts and Reuschlein’s 78-year model of manufacturing productivity in the United States.  Further study shows that military spending substitutes for manufacturing in regional economies based on states clustered around large cities.  This substitution effect lowers manufacturing employment while driving down overall economic growth and raising overall unemployment.  This substitution effect mimics local economic growth around the military spending and ignores the corresponding depletion of economic growth in manufacturing states.  All of this is shown in multiple tests of the basic concepts in several periods of substantial change in military spending, showing the effects to be well over 97% accurate in all manner of circumstances.  Hence military spending is inert manufacturing that gives little or none back to the economic growth of the economy.  The little is the possible 3% of normal 100% growth from research spin-offs.  To use a biological analogy, military spending is fat while manufacturing is protein.  Both come from the same research and capital pools vital to all national economic growth, fueled by a physical and technical abled blue-collar workforce.

Corruption of Military Spending

Peace Economics shows that high military spending mini-regions and states have crime and corruption of many kinds (crime, politics, health, mental health, economic inequality, lack of social mobility, etc.) proportional to the military spending.  Just as war leads to post traumatic stress syndrome, even planning for and preparing for war leads to demonization of the “other” and many related negative psychological effects.  The attitude is social poison, even if much is done to mitigate that attitude effect.

Historical Effects  

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the decline of empires and civilizations.  Toynbee thought 23 of 26 civilizations he studied failed due to high military spending.  Peace Economics shows in detail how many if not most of the United States national economic calamities have a significant military spending component in their unfolding.  For example, the $70 billion military surge in Iraq under President Bush announced in December 2006 or January 2007, was implemented economically in the fiscal year 10-1-07 to 9-30-08 $60 billion above trend military budget.  Those four economic quarters were exactly the four biggest drops in the economic growth rate over that time period including a few years before and since 2008.  While the ten-fold increase in derivatives since the repeal of Glass-Steagall on 11-12-99 remains the main problem and cause, the run-away real estate prices in the post 9-11 military buildup and the trigger by the surge brought the problem to a head.  The proof is that the major military buildup states were hit the hardest with real estate scams, yet the industrial states of the heartland suffered the auto industry collapse.

Social Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the social decay of empires and civilizations.  Alternative views that moral decay leads to decline ignore the direct links to economics that in turn leads to the various social decay forms such as crime, prisoners, diabetes, mental health, teen pregnancy, infant mortality, lifespan, drugs, gambling, economic inequality, and lack of social mobility, among many others.  High military Empire economies are flat, sideways oriented, control oriented, and stagnant.  Low military Emerging economies are forward looking, achievement oriented, and fast growing.  Occupations reflect these opposite styles, with lawyers, salesmen, and accountants to fight the petty battles of a stagnant economy, and engineers and scientists and entrepreneurs to lead the way in emerging societies.  Both economies have both styles in them, just more growth-oriented win/win styles in the emerging societies, and more win/lose styles and red tape in the militarized stagnant societies.

Political Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the economic power of politicians.  Half of the U.S. population is in the high military spending states and half is in the low military spending states.  The ratio is three to one, high states over low states.  This imbalance leads to about 80% of congressional leaders, cabinet members, presidents, and Supreme Court appointees coming from the high military states.  Fear based politics has grown in power over time in the modern empire society of America.  Trump has taken that to a new high in obviousness, showing the trend continues strong.

National Defense Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the long-term decline of empires and civilizations.  So, while high military spending may be necessary to fight or deter wars, economic strength is usually much more important to win wars.  Peace Economics shows that high military spending syphons off enough economic growth to endanger the national defense in a few decades time.  Hence being the most militarized nation may earn a nation temporary advantages at the expense of inevitable decline.  Holding to the world average percent of your economy devoted to military spending is a far shrewder long-time strategy.  Lower levels of military spending reduce the temptation to get into foolish wars and actual allow the military to keep ahead by maintaining a world class economy that develops first and then spins off into the military instead of looking for military economic spin-offs that are reduced by secrecy and being too narrowly militarily useful only to keep the economy strong, which doesn’t actually work.  Putting the economy ahead of the military let the United States develop the automobile and airplanes and industrial might first, making victory in World War II later possible.  High levels of military spending ever since have held America back to the point of being an ineffective power in several Asian Wars halfway around the world, a far cry from defeating powerful Germany and Japan in the World War. 

War Cycle

The Peace Economics model uses a 54-year cycle later shown by Reuschlein to originate from an energy imbalance between the continents and the oceans created by evaporation differences over land and water.  Land heats up three times as fast as water.  The continents make the first move warming into a drought period, then when balance goes too far in one direction, the ocean fights back with rains and floods bring on the cooling period.  Heat slows down construction and other work such that the 27-year cooling period doubles growth rates in the economy over the 27-year heating period, historically.  Then the cooling period high growth leads to new powers emerging and challenging the hegemonic order, usually in the last strong cooling trend of about three years at the end of the cooling cycle.  There are explainable nuances in the thousand year’s records of Rome (300 years), America (200 years), and modern Europe (500 years), but for the most part major wars follow the 54-year cycle closely.  This relative predictability makes possible significant reductions in military might in more peace-oriented times, militarizing only when necessary.

For additional information about Peace Economics accuracy:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p_13

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 10), “What Does Peace Econ Show?” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/What-Does-Peace-Econ-Show?,2019182717.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 75 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Because Of The Nine Fields

Overview

Too many people doubt the miracle science of Peace Economics because they don’t recognize 1) that I’m honest and my work can be replicated 2) it really does take all nine of these fields that have three years full time work equivalent in each field.  Take away any of these nine building blocks and the theory would be inadequate to the understandings needed to create the precise science models that have resulted.

Math

A comprehensive understanding of the field of math provides many tools needed for a thorough investigation. “Triangulation” is an essential technique to prove a finding from a variety of methods or angles.  “Differential Equations” always have a sinusoidal solution and this insight is vital to both the long-term economic model design and the long-term temperature modeling.  “La Place Transform” is a technique to highlight time frequencies of repeating events from any data set and leads to a compelling proof of long cycle theory.

Wargaming  

“Conflict Simulation Modeling” game design improves judgement and model building skills in a variety of ways.  “Probability” life is uncertain, and probability is extensively studied and used in wargaming.  “Military History” is the ideal strived for in wargame design, hence history is popular among gamers and helps in defense strategy modeling.

Science

“Laws of Physics” the order and precision of the universe and gravity guides much of what we do.  Six semesters of college physics define much of how our physical world precisely works.   “Momentum” defense modeling relies on the tendency of nations to maintain a fixed army or navy size over time, sort of like a conservation of momentum.

Engineering

“Control Theory” divides into a response phase and a steady state phase.  This explains the form of the long-term model, with a normal sinusoidal component and an abrupt discontinuity to a lower downward track for the Great Depression thirties and later the Oil Crisis seventies.  “Multi-Year Averaging” engineers need to estimate situations various ways, and this is one technique used extensively in my investigation to locate tops and bottoms of long term paths.

Accounting

“Bookkeeping” is a system of keeping track of data in various categories to give meaning to the results.  Various social data categories help show the depth and breadth of empire decay beyond the economic.  “Present Fairly” is a clause in the CPA financial statement that emphasizes the ethical code of a CPA.  This concept leads to estimations being used to fill in otherwise empty blanks.  Accounting leads to an attitude of forced completion that does not tolerate incomplete pictures.  This discipline makes sure the estimation muscle is exercised and improves intelligent estimating abilities.

Business

“Entrepreneurship” is a skill in organizing and guiding efforts towards a result, as well as an openness to new ideas.  “Decision Trees” show how one thing leads to another, a key investigative technique used extensively in my model building.

Politics

“Covers Everything” A legislative internship is an amazing window on how expert testimony in committees sheds amazing light on all manner of human endeavors.  General information can be extremely detailed and informative.  One of my greatest educational experiences was working in the legislative arena. “Social Science” going to hundreds of committee meetings in the civic calendar is also an extraordinary education.  In politics I learned about the Kondratiev Wave 54-year cycle and the importance of nine-year Juglar cycles, two key components to the long-term economic model that economists hardly ever mention much less use.

Peace Economics

“Follow the Dominoes” follow the money helps confirm the nature of military spending and shows how the military spending domino leads to various adverse consequences of an empire society directly related to the military spending.  Politics is perverted and controlled, as is health crime and social-economic consequences.

Warming Cycle

“Evaporation Energy Balance” the Earth’s land warms about three times as fast as the ocean, yet energy balance requires this to balance out over time.  Sixteen long term records of temperature and precipitation helped locate the driving forces in this process by dividing the Earth up in various ways.  “Three Cycles Confirm” the 54-year cycle resides in natural, economic, and war timing data.  Relating these three fields helps confirm the bona fides of all three separate forms of the cycle.

For additional information about the seventeen main findings:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

See my Curriculum Vitae for the nine fields on my resume:  https://realeconomy.academia.edu/RobertReuschlein/CurriculumVitae

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, June 26), “Because Of The Nine Fields” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Because-of-the-Nine-Fields,2019182265.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 71 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

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