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Texas Hurricane “Harvey”

Harvey on August 25th is the first category four hurricane to hit Texas in the 56 years since Carla on September 11th in 1961.  When the oceanic 27 year half cycle phase of the 54 year Kondratiev cycle comes along, you have to expect repetitive big hurricanes will come along with it.  In American economic and temperature cycle terms the period is 1994 to 2021.  Like its predecessor period, 1940 to 1967, it is a high economic growth cooling temperature period.  In World temperature cycle terms it is 1998 to 2025.  The world predecessor period is 1944 to 1971, with each period starting with a peak temperature above the long term trend line and ending with a trough temperature below the long term trending line.  Ironically, thanks to the new Greenhouse Effect trend line, this period will look like the stable period one quarter century from now in terms of land and the economy, but anything but stable in terms of hurricanes.

Great Hurricane Modern History

The first press releases of this four year press release campaign were about the great Typhoon Haiyan hitting the Philippines in 2013.  This was exactly 54 years after “The 1959 Pacific typhoon season that was regarded as one of the most devastating years for Pacific typhoons on record, with China, Japan and the Philippines sustaining catastrophic losses, (from Wikipedia).”  “One top ten list of Philippines Typhoons has nine of them 1973 or more recent, all during the age of the current strong increase in global warming of the seventies, eighties, and nineties.  Only one other made the top ten, the 1958 typhoon Rita, the only one from the relatively cool fifties and sixties or the twenty year period 1952-1972.  That one is 55 years ago from today’s devastating Typhoon Haiyan suggesting it fits the 55 year cycle discovered by Klyashtorin.”  “Hurricane Sandy of 2012 was the next time the battery in New York flooded after the 1960 event 52 years before.”  “Not included in the above is Hurricane Hugo that dumped 12 inches of rain on North Carolina in September 1989, just 55 years after the last 12 inch North Carolina month of September in 1934.”  These last four quotes are from my November 12, 2013 press release immediately after Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines.  From Wikipedia:  “On making landfall, Haiyan devastated portions of Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines. It is the deadliest Philippine typhoon on record, killing at least 6,300 people in that country alone. In terms of JTWC-estimated 1-minute sustained winds, Haiyan is the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on record.”

Great American Hurricanes

In  2004 PBS broadcast a special suggesting four great tragedies waiting to happen in the United States.  One was a San Francisco earthquake, one was an EF5 tornado hitting Dallas, one was a hurricane hitting New Orleans and the last was a hurricane hitting New York. Those four events have now happened, except that the scale is lower for the San Francisco and Dallas cases.  The EF4 tornado over Dallas suburb Garland on December 26, 2015 was tracking for the downtown Dallas when it lifted.  The F5 over Fort Worth in 1957 is the big one for modern times, suggesting a 58 year cycle.  The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 was easily the most devastating in US history, with the follow-up 83 year later in San Jose much weaker, and the follow-up 108 years later in the Napa Valley weaker still.  108 years is a perfect fit being two 54 year cycles later, 83 is two years off from the three half cycle trend changes perfect of 81 years.

New Orleans had hurricanes in 1893 (2000 deaths) and 1947, 54 year apart, then Katrina (1500 deaths) came four years late in 2005, 58 years later.  Hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012 famously just before the presidential election and two years early after the Battery last flooded 52 years before in 1960.

Texas Hurricanes Harvey and Carla

            Harvey, 56 years after Carla in 1961 is only two years late from a perfect cycle, these are the most recent two category four hurricanes to land on Texas.  Carla was once a CAT 5 but diminished just before landing and quickly dropped to tropical storm level the next day.  Harvey threatens to persist for a week and dump 52 inches of rain over time on Houston, potentially much more devastating, as water is usually more devastating in a hurricane than wind.  This could be worse than Katrina or Sandy in overall impact.  This rainfall greatly exceeded the Hugo levels in 1989 in North Carolina, where 12 inches of rain matches the monthly rainfall total of September 1934 in North Carolina, the same month 55 years before.  That was the first major hurricane after the discovery that the American droughts of 1934 and 1936 were repeating in 1988, starting my whole research effort into the causes of the 54 year cycle.

Summary

Yes, the world temperature cycle exists, yes it works best globally, nearly as well for the US, but very well regionally as well.  My 56 event chart was posted on my academia.edu website in 2013 and included at the end of this general paper about the weather cycle:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5p. from_1997_9p. 2014

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, August 27). “Texas Hurricane ‘Harvey’.” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Texas-Hurricane-Harvey,2017119240.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Military Complete Geography

Wherever the military industrial complex resides it co-opts those around it in many ways.  This release is mainly an analysis of the Fiscal Year 2015 Defense Spending by State published by the US Department of Defense compared with my own prior analyses of related matters.

Military Concentrations in America

Military concentrations by state always start out with the big four, Virginia, Hawaii, Alaska and the District of Columbia.  Then the rest of the top ten are usually Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Connecticut, Alabama and Arizona.  I have looked at 1980, 1984, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2015 over the years.  In 2015 these are all in the top 14, with Kentucky, Maine, and Rhode Island, rising to this top level.  Among the big eight population states, California, Texas, and Florida have consistently been in the high military category, while New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan have been consistently low military, a clear South versus North split.  Indeed, the nation as a whole tends to follow this North versus South split, with few and rare exceptions, except the coastal corners, Washington and New England.  In 1991 dividing the nation into 28 North states and 22 South states, the South had twice the military spending level of the North.  In 2015 the 22 high military spending states had half the US population comparable to the 28 low military spending states.  But the military spending was clearly split 70% in the high states to 30% in the low states.  The lowest military spending region is clearly the Great Lakes states including New York, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.  Other than the Eastern two, these are commonly called the industrial Midwest states.  This is a common pattern among all the states, where the military is high, the manufacturing is low and vice versa.  This is also the common pattern when the military budget is changing, the high military buildup states’ economies move in the opposite direction of the low military high manufacturing states.  This pattern is well understood in military states but rarely understood in manufacturing states. Manufacturing state economic volatility is greater than military states.

Most Militarized States in America

The 2015 report shows three clear high military spending counties in America.  Fairfax in Northern Virginia where the CIA and Pentagon are nearby, San Diego California where the Pacific fleet is based, and Tarrant County Texas where the F-35 aircraft is manufactured by number one defense contractor Lockheed Martin in the Fort Worth western suburb of Dallas.  Fort Worth is located in Texas Congressional District 12 of the chair of the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee, while Texas District 13 adjacent to 12 has the chair of the House Armed Services Committee.  Former President Bush awarded the F-35 contract to his home state, a very common political practice.  But while the $15.3 Billion for San Diego, and the $13.6 Billion for Forth Worth’s County look very impressive, the Fairfax Virginia total of $17.0 Billion is just a part of the $25.7 Billion including adjacent Virginia Counties, and the $44.1 Billion in the DC metro area including ten entities in DC, Maryland, and Virginia.  No wonder the nation’s capital has seven of the nation’s richest counties located there, with various studies showing one third higher pay for military contractors:  white collar, blue collar, and engineers,  compared to other manufacturing.  Other studies show defense consultants making multiples of medical doctor pay.

States Ranked by Large Military Complex

  1. Virginia (per capita #1) has the largest cluster with $25.7 billion in Northern Virginia with the CIA and Pentagon. It also has the second largest with $16.8 billion in Southern Virginia.for the Atlantic fleet. Virginia has three members sitting on the four key military committees, including the former vice presidential candidate Senator Kaine (D-VA). Senator Warner (D-VA) is ranking member on Intelligence, a key committee looking into the Russian election tampering.
  2. California (per capita #23) has the third largest cluster with $15.3 billion in the San Diego base of Pacific fleet. The Los Angeles metro cluster is $14.7 billion including the site of the San Bernadino terrorist attack and Santa Clara Sacramento worth $11.3 billion includes Silicon Valley. California has 10 members on the key four committees lead by Senator Feinstein (D-CA) on Defense Appropriations while Senator Boxer has just retired from Armed Services.
  3. Texas (per capita #20) has that famous Fort Worth aircraft factory $13.6 billion ($12.6 billion Lockheed Martin) that Kennedy was on the way to when he died. Johnson had the F-111 rebid twice before taking the bid from Boeing. House Speaker Wright came from that district when the Cold War ended. Texas has both House chairs of the four key military committees and eight members all told including Senator Cruz (R-TX) on Armed Services.
  4. Maryland (per capita #5) has $11.2 billion in four counties in the DC area, Lockheed Martin has $1.5 billion and John Hopkins University (foreign policy) has $0.7 billion, two House members on key military committees. Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) ranking Foreign Relations.
  5. Missouri (per capita #10) has $7.6 billion in St. Louis, Boeing $6.4 billion, where the F-15 was built. Dick Gephart represented that district when he ran for president in1988 and won the Iowa Caucus. Back then St. Louis was the top military spending per capita large metro area in America. Republican House members Hartzler and Graves are on Armed Services, Senator McCaskill (D-MO) on Armed Services, and Senator Blount (R-MO) on Defense Appropriations.
  6. District of Columbia (per capita #6 if it were a state) has $7.2 billion. No Senators or voting congressperson, no statehood, Georgetown University #1 for CIA internships.
  7. Alabama (per capita #4) has Madison County with Huntsville Space Center $7.1 billion. Alabama has seven members on the four key committees, including a Senator on each key committee. Senator Shelby (R-AL) Defense Appropriations is also the chair of the all powerful Senate Rules Committee.
  8. Hawaii (per capita #2) has $6.8 billion spent in Honolulu. Four members serve on the key committees including a Senator on each one. Courageous Senator Hirono (D-HI) voted on the key Health Care bill even though she has stage four kidney cancer.
  9. Massachusetts (per capita #17) Middlesex County has $6.1 billion (Raytheon $3.9 billion, MIT $1.6 billion). Senator Warren and Congresspersons Tsongas (D-MA) and Moulton all sit on Armed Services. Warren (D-MA) and Moulton (D-MA) have presidential ambitions.
  10. Pennsylvania (per capita #27) Philadelphia Counties $6.0 billion, two House Armed Services.
  11. Connecticut (per capita #9) has $5.6 billion for United Technologies in Fairfield and Hartford. Senator Blumenthal (D-CT) and Congressperson Courtney sit on Armed Services.
  12. Ohio (per capita #35) belt of Southwest Counties $5.5 billion, Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) ranking member on Banking, four House members, two each, on key military committees.
  13. Arizona (per capita #12) Puma County has $4.9 billion with Raytheon $4.2 billion of that. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) is chair of Armed Services with four House members on Armed Services.
  14. Washington (per capita #14) King County $4.7 billion (Boeing $4.1 billion) has Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) former Budget chair sitting on Defense Appropriations with two House members on Armed Services. Research for drones is done principally in Washington.
  15. North Carolina (per capita #26) Cumberland County area (Fayetteville, Fort Bragg) $4.6 billion, Senator Tillis (R-NC) Armed Services Committee, Jones (R-NC) on House Armed Services.
  16. Colorado (per capita #15) has $4.3 billion spent in El Paso County, home of the Air Force Academy. Only two House members (R-CO) on Armed Services.
  17. Kentucky (per capita #8) has $4.2 billion in Jefferson County (Louisville) where Humana has $3.8 billion. Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) on Defense Appropriations with Rogers on House Defense Appropriations. No wonder Leader cares so much about Health Care.
  18. Florida (per capita #24), Orange County (Orlando) $3.9 billion, Lockheed Martin $2.5 billion, Senator Nelson (D-FL) sits on Armed Services and is ranking member on Science (Space), one House Defense Appropriations, and two House Armed Services.
  19. Illinois (per capita #42) Cook Lake DuPage $3.7 billion, Senator Dick Durbin ranking member Armed Services only military committee.
  20. Georgia (per capita #19), Cobb Fulton Counties (Marietta, Atlanta suburb, Kennesaw State) $3.4 billion, Lockheed Martin $2.6 billion, long gone are the Senator Nunn days for Georgia, today only three people sit on the four key military committees. Senator Perdue (R-GA) sits on Armed Services, House has Graves on Defense Appropriation and Scott on Armed Services.
  21. Minnesota (per capita #32), Hennepin County area (Minneapolis) $4.0 billion, United Health Group $2.8 billion, McCollum (D-MN) on House Defense Appropriations, only military.
  22. New Jersey (per capita #36), Burlington County area $3.0 billion, $1.6 billion Lockheed Martin, Lobiando (R-NJ) Norcross (D-NJ) both on House Armed Services.
  23. New York (per capita #49), Long Island Counties $2.9 billion, Senator Gillibrand (D-NY) and two House members all three on Armed Services.
  24. Oklahoma (per capita #18), $2.7 billion in Oklahoma County area, Senator Inhofe (R-OK) sits on Armed Services, with three in the House: Cole on Defense Appropriations; Bridenstine and Russell on Armed Services.
  25. Mississippi (per capita #6), Jackson County (Pascagoula) $2.5 billion, HuntingtonIngalls $2.0 billion, Senator Cockran (R-MS) chairs Defense Appropriations, Senator Wicker (R-MS) on Armed Services, and House Kelly (R-MS) sits on Armed Services.
  1. Utah (per capita #22), Salt Lake area $2.2 billion, Bishop (R-UT) House Armed Services.
  2. Alaska (per capita #3) Anchorage Borough $2.0 billion, Senator Murkowski (R-AK) on Appropriations and Senator Sullivan (R-AK) on Armed Services, none on House Committees.
  3. Rhode Island (per capita #11), Five Counties $1.9 billion, Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) is the ranking member of Armed Services and also on Senate Defense Appropriations combines with the state’s only congressperson Langevin (D-RI) on House Armed Services.
  4. Michigan (per capita #48), Detroit Counties $1.8 billion, Senator Peters (D-MI) Armed Services.
  5. New Mexico (per capita #13), Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) $1.7 billion, Senators Udall (D-NM) Defense Appropriations, Senator Heinrich (D-NM) Armed Services (Emerging Threats ranking member), none from House.
  6. Louisiana (per capita #29), Orleans Parish area $1.7 billion, Abraham (R-LA) House Armed Services
  7. South Carolina (per capita #16), Charleston County $1.6 billion, Senator Graham on both Armed Services and Defense Appropriations, Wilson on House Armed Services.
  8. Indiana (per capita #33), Marion County $1.4 billion, Senator Donnelly (R-IN) & House Banks (R-IN) Armed Services, Visclosky (D-IN) ranking member House Defense Appropriations.
  9. Nebraska (per capita #31), Omaha area $1.3 billion, Fisher (R-NE) and Sasse (R-NE) on Senate Armed Services, Bacon (R-NE) House Armed Services.
  10. New Hampshire (per capita #25), Hillsborough Rockingham $1.3 billion, Senator Shaheen (D-NH) Armed Services, House Shea-Porter Armed Services.
  11. Nevada (per capita #28), Clark County $1.2 billion, Rosen (D-NV) House Armed Services.
  12. Kansas (per capita #21), Sedgwick (Wichita) $1.1 billion, Geary (Fort Riley) $1.1 billion, Boeing $0.3 billion, Raytheon $0.2 billion, Senator Moran (R-KS) Defense Appropriations.
  13. Maine (per capita #7), Sagadahoc County $1.1 billion, General Dynamics $1.1 billion, Senators Collins (R-ME) on Defense Appropriations and King (I-ME) on Armed Services, no House.
  14. Wisconsin (per capita #45), Winnebago County $1 billion, Oshkosh Truck $1 billion, Senator Baldwin (D-WI) on Defense Appropriations, Gallagher (R-WI) on House Armed Services.
  15. Arkansas (per capita #34), Pulaski County area $0.8 billion, Senator Cotton (R-AR) Armed Services, Womack (R-AR) House Defense Appropriations.
  16. Iowa (per capita #44), Linn County (Cedar Rapids) $0.8 billion, Senator Ernst (R-IA) chairs the Armed Services subcommittee on Threats.
  17. Oregon (per capita #50), Portland area $0.8 billion, Nobody on military committees.
  18. Tennessee (per capita #46), Coffee area $0.7 billion, Senator Alexander (R-TN) and Two Members on House Armed Services.
  19. North Dakota (per capita #30), Ward County $0.4 billion, Nobody on key military committees.
  20. Delaware (per capita #38), Kent County $0.4 billion, Nobody on key military committees
  21. Idaho (per capita #41), Elmore County area $0.4 billion, Nobody on key military committees.
  22. Montana (per capita #37), Cascade County $0.3 billion, Daines (R-MT) Tester (D-MT) Senate Defense Appropriations.
  23. South Dakota (per capita #39), Pennington County area $0.3 billion, Senator Rounds (R-SD) on Armed Services
  24. Wyoming (per capita #43), Laramie $0.3 billion, Cheney (R-WY) House Armed Services
  25. Vermont (per capita #40), Chittenden County area $0.2 billion, Senator Leahy (D-VT) Defense Appropriations
  26. West Virginia (per capita #47), Kanawha County $0.2 billion, Nobody on military committees

  

Summary

High military states lead 80 to 42 in holding key military committee assignments and have about the same share of military spending.  Many large Northern states have little or no representation on the key military committees, thinking the defense budget doesn’t affect their state.  Nothing could be further from the truth as huge amounts of research and capital are drained from manufacturing in the low military states during military buildups.  Likewise, upper Midwest industrial states prosper greatly when the military is lowered.  But this is the best kept secret around, as few peace studies programs study regional economics.  The low military half of America lost three times as many jobs as the high military states in the two years after 9-11-01. Construction was twice as strong in the industrial Midwest states three years after the Cold War ended in 1994. The “Hole in the Donut” nature of military spending is essential to understand how the military economy can boost some local economies while depleting other (mainly inland) regions, depleting all other manufacturing, and slowing the national economy.  Here is the link to that story:

https://www.academia.edu/5740273/MIDWEST_and_the_Military_3_pages_2005

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016,                                                                                                                    and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

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