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Archive for the month “September, 2016”

How Many Are Going Wrong

What is holding back the widespread acceptance of my basic Peace Economics theories is that other people cling to notions in their respective fields that are just plain inadequate or wrong.  This is where winning the Nobel Peace Prize could make a scientific revolution difference, with a million dollars to help get the word out.  So this paper is devoted to some of the long list of groups or occupations that are handicapped by inadequate understandings held by their narrow fields of expertise.  My work started with economics but it rapidly grew into much broader interdisciplinary understandings because military spending and empire are at the heart of so many other issues.  What makes it possible for me to do this work is that I have a deep understanding of many important fields, nine listed on my resume, and that keeps me from getting stuck in the limitations of any one field.  I have politics for breadth, and engineering for depth, both words and numbers.  Then there is business and accounting for different ways of looking at the economy.  My war-gaming background helps me understand history and war.  Sports, religion, and art are not in my list of nine specialties, but I have extensive experience in each area and have woven those three into my work as well.  Forecasting expertise is another specialty strength not explicitly emphasized on my resume.

Economists

While economists work with numbers and charts, just as I do, they are very good only with microeconomics, business economics, supply and demand, not very good at macroeconomics as many will readily admit.  Forecasting is clearly a weakness.  The adherence to one of three schools, Monetarists, Keynesians, and Marxists (sorry Vienna I put you in the first group) resembles that of religion more than that of science.  Each school seeks to outmaneuver the others to support their particular belief system, using numbers, charts, and argument.  They are social scientists working in the area of partial truths rather than verities, so argument is left to resolve the ambiguities.  Peace Economics found some bedrock truths to build a model on and that model had solid accuracy because it was carefully built up (see 28 steps) on solid findings.  Peace Economics rises above the soft social science world of the other three economic theories into the hard physics accurate world of the Newtonian physics that dominates most of the engineering fields.

Politicians

Politicians are by nature generalists and word people, seldom any good at numbers like I am.  They are usually among the 90% of the population who are number-phobic.  They are fond of the phrase, “lies, darn lies, and statistics” because they are so used to abusing statistics to make an argument.  Political scientists are interested in getting votes and who gets the most votes, so they often live in a world of emotion rather than hard realities.  They live by the word and die by the word, numbers just confuse people they think.  They see the military spending going into prosperous communities but fail to see the reverse effect to productive industries, especially manufacturing, during those same military buildup years.  They see the power attached to military spending but fail to see the enormous toll of crime and corruption that goes with that same power in those same communities.

Historians

The biggest fallacy in the world of history is that history is biography.  Many college students get a history degree because there is no math requirement, hence many historians are number-phobic.  One local radio show historian showed his bigotry against numbers and me by calling me a numerologist.  This same person incorrectly cited Boeing stock going up after 9-11 when in fact it went down.  That’s because he didn’t know 80% of Boeing’s business was commercial aircraft, and unlike most other major defense contractors, like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, Boeing was not almost solely dependent on military spending.  Arnold Toynbee got it right that high military spending is a big factor in the demise of most all empires, but he and Paul Kennedy are the rare exceptions from the biography is destiny majority of historians.  Most historians tend to overlook or underplay the military spending role in the economy.  Many even think military spending leads to economic prosperity, while in reality military spending is taking resources from those that can’t stop military encroachment.  Perhaps they ignore the development economic literature that resource based economies seldom prosper in the long run.  Militarism can sometimes prosper in the short run, but backfires in the long run.  Science, imagination, and goods production are the real enduring sources of prosperity.

Religion

The religious believe that world peace can be attained one person at a time.  They believe we can change hearts and all will be well.  They fail to see that the military industrial complex can easily arouse the people into a war fever.  They fail to see that politicians know they need a good war to go down in the history books as a great leader.  They fail to see that politicians court the military when seeking power, as guns are seen as more reliable than prayers.  Stalin once famously said “How many divisions does the Pope have?”  Nonviolent movements succeed twice as often as violent ones do, but tell that to the people of Syria today.  Leaders with a conscience are malleable, but ruthless leaders are a much tougher nut to crack.

Environmentalists

The depletion of resources and soil can bring down an empire eventually.  But the islands of Japan have built prosperity with little in the way of resources, employing trade and low military spending after militarism didn’t work in World War II.  The world is in deep trouble due to excessive carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from increasing use of fossil fuels worldwide.  But the science of the greenhouse effect is also subject to the laws of diminishing returns.  I attended one global warming class where students were to experiment to see the effects of different changes on a climate model.  They were instructed to go out one century to see the results.  One student went out two centuries and saw the temperature rise leveling off in the second century.  This accords with the science that shows that each doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will give a certain rise in temperature.  That means the response is not linear, but actually slows the increase over time with a linear input increase.  But when the IPPC has 205 specialties and does not include the 54 year cycle, they are left grasping for straws to explain the fifteen year stall in global warming since 1998 until the last two years.  Because differential evaporation rates occur over land and water, the land heats up three times as fast as the ocean for 27 years before the ocean starts bringing the land back into balance over another 27 years creating the great land ocean cycle on Earth.  At the peak relative temperature, first a decade of  droughts happens before the peak, then a decade of floods just after the peak.  The environmentalists are either geographers or meteorologists.  One thinks in terms of millions or thousands of years and the other thinks very short term like days, weeks, or a few years at most.  No one focuses on the work lifetime level of 54 years.  Even if they did, they would not see results repeat in one working lifetime for field studies.  Of the hundreds of academics studying the cycle, only I have sought to connect and explain the three cycles of temperature, economics, and wars.

Criminologists

Modern American criminologists are at a loss to explain the sudden drop of crime in the nineties.  That’s because they fail to see the crime is a function of militarism.  When the military spending share of the economy suddenly dropped at the end of the Cold War in 1991, it took several years for the crime to drop to the new low levels of the late nineties.  That’s because it took time for the people raising the next crop of children to lower the level of fear and anxiety and less young adults were being taught the skills of mortal combat.  Prison rates are considered a function of the number of people aged 18 to 30.  I expect the delay to be related to the 18 years of raising a child to adulthood or the phasing in of the lower military force impact on the twelve years from age 18-30 of crime likelihood.  The statistics look more like the early twenties aged military force level is key to the overall crime rate, as it gradually dropped from 1991 to about 1996, mainly that first five years after the military spending drop.  Detoxification takes time.  Once the drop was in place, the level stayed low in spite of the rise in military spending after 2001, although that rise was small compared to the Cold War levels.

Trade Treaties

Those looking at trade treaties to blame for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the developed world are usually overlooking an even stronger factor.  Sure there is the attraction of low wages in the developing world, but there is also the Military buildup withdrawal of resources (like research engineering and capital) from manufacturing.  That loss to the military adds vulnerability to trade deals by not upgrading manufacturing to higher quality levels, like the Germans do.

For the complete 24 page booklet enclosed in the Peace Economics video:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

For definitive proof that Peace Economics is a new level of precision scientific discovery:

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

A later update of this formula for another 13 years to 1996 showed the formula still accurate.

Twenty-first century tests show the basis principles continue to apply and predict.

I have two 2000 word peer reviewed listings coming out in the SAGE Encyclopedia of War in October 2016, one on “Military Keynesianism” and the other on “Political Economy of War”.

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

To be announced October 7, in Oslo Norway.

Real Economy Institute,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

Empire Explains USA Best

America is going through a lot of problems right now.  Americans for the first time in their history no longer believe the next generation will be better off than their parents’ generation.  Manufacturing employment, 40% in the fifties has shrunk to 10% today.  For many decades, America had trade surpluses, now since the eighties it has had trade deficits.  The national debt has grown to the size of the annual economy for the first time since fighting World War II.  Income inequality has hit historical highs, even higher than just before the Great Depression of the thirties.  Crime is at record levels compared to other developed countries, although half the rate of the last decade of the Cold War.  Politics is in gridlock.  How did we get this way and is there a way out?  Looking at America as a modern empire is the best way to explain it all.  High military spending leads directly to all those consequences given enough time.  Lowering military spending is the only way out.

Modern Empire 8-6-16

This traces the evolution of society and institutions over time as militarism gradually changes the nature of a society.

Football Baseball Empire 5-28-16

Pure sports are healthy, empire sports are full of violence and militarism.  This paper explores how the top sport of a nation can shift under the pressures of empire and widespread war.

Control Freak Society 3-14-15

Power and control are the opposites of freedom and ingenuity.  An achievement society has healthy economic growth, a power and control society comes from an excessively militarized society.  Control freaks are much more prevalent in a more militarized society.

Modern Feudalism 2-21-15

If the complete absence of military spending is world peace, the extensive presence of militarism all around a society is feudalism, like the Middle and Dark Ages of Europe.  This paper discusses these issues, lords and serfs, castles and moats, and explains the nature of that system compared to present times in America.

Religion and Empire 1-3-15

The cooptation of the Christian religion by the Roman Empire has turned the church away from nonviolence allowing war under just war theory.  This is a clear contradiction with the gospels.  This revisits the historical and religious records into a new interpretation of scripture.

12 Days of Empire 11-29-14

This is a parody of the Christmas song.

Capitalism vs Empire 11-23-14

Socialism and the two capitalistic economic theories, monetarism and Keynesianism, each have some evidence in their favor and some evidence against.  These three types are belief systems rather than scientific systems.  I seek to replace all three with Peace Economics.  Empire Economics is the best way to explain Peace Economics other than by mathematics.  The uncanny mathematical precision of my theory is the basis for my confidence in this.

10 Empire Warps 10-12-14

These are examples of distortions military spending and militarism will eventually inflict on society.

12 Stages of Empire 9-29-14

This is the earlier version of the Modern Empire paper mentioned first in this list.

Work and Empire 7-26-14

This takes a closer look at work and occupations that fit the empire mold.

Empire Concept 2-18-14

This looks at the importance of the empire concept to explain the many deviations from previous norms affecting American society.

Health and Crime 12-13-13

The Spirit Level book provides a rationale for poor health and crime resulting from a developed nation’s level of income inequality.  But their correlations on the main factors of their index are only half as accurate as my military spending long term averages correlating to those factors.  Empire is a better explanation than income inequality for these ugly statistics.

Crime and Empire 12-5-13

Murder and crime are proportional to the long term average military spending of a developed nation.  Here is the statistical connection between the social decay of empire and the military spending that brings an empire down.  The two decades it takes to raise a child to adulthood are the formative years.  The military spending percentage of an economy during this time determines the crime rate.

For the complete texts of the thirteen press releases:

https://www.academia.edu/28545758/EMPIRE_Explains_America_Best_2013-2016_13p

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

To be announced October 7, in Oslo Norway.

Real Economy Institute,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

War Decision Mechanisms

There’s an excellent new book in this subject area by Rosa Brooks “How Everything Became War and the Military Became Everything” that I just heard about on C-SPAN Book TV.  But here are seven former press releases I chose to bundle together on this issue.  The first two are basic natural cycle understandings, the next gives a defense strategy for the fact that military depletes the economy, then two issues about the executive branch roles.  The last two are classic Peace Economics with a variety of unusual observations of the economic record about war and a refutation of the much overstated case that war produces important innovations.

War Cycle, 54 Years Long

This first piece needs the important additional information that the long cycle, after extensive research, clearly seems to come about because the land of the planet heats up much faster than the ocean.  This happens because evaporation is by some estimates up to 85% of the solar radiation hitting the Earth’s surface.  By simple algebra using the fact that land is 29% and ocean 71% of the Earth’s surface suggests that evaporation is 90% over ocean and 73% over land.  Then the remainder of solar radiation directly warms the land 27% and the ocean 10%, confirmed by a variety of effects.  Thus the land warming much faster than the ocean leads to 27 years of warming ending in severe droughts followed by the ocean rebalancing the Earth with floods at first in the next 27 years of cooling.  These effects drive economic changes which drive the war cycle as detailed in the article.

Major Wars Happen in Cold Years

The midpoint and end of the economic growth cycle tend to have major wars, and amazingly these wars tend to start after a two or three year burst of cooling hits a relative low in the Earth’s temperature cycle.  For some reason the wars tend to start in these low temperature episodes, as detailed in this article.

Low Level Military Defense

National defense in the long run depends on a strong economy.  But military spending depletes capital investment and the manufacturing sector.  What then becomes too much military in the long run and too little military in the short run?  This was the basic issue in the Defense Strategy chapter of my 1986 book Peace Economics.  This is also the essence of this article published in December 2015, still the most popular press release of the last two years, although the July 2016 “Nature of Military Spending” is a close second and might end up passing “Low Level Military Defense.”

National Security State

This classic was born in a sociology class I took in about 1985 from Val Burris of the University of Oregon on power structure.  I compared Secretaries of State and Defense since World War Two back then and the pattern continues today.  State tends to be hawkish and Defense tends to be dovish.  The reasons why are enumerated in this article.  This is the reverse of most public opinion.

CIA Presidents: Obama Clinton 

This piece cites the post-Cold War experience of electing presidents.  The Cold War experience is that all 11 elections were won by candidates from high per capita military spending states.  The other prominent CIA president would be the first George Bush elected in 1988.  There is a picture of a man that looks just like George Bush watching the Kennedy assassination in 1963.  He later became CIA head under Ford, inventing the A team and B team CIA estimates to inflate the Soviet threat.  He was important in the October Surprise of 1980 and Iran Contra in 1986, although he escapes serious scrutiny in all these cases.  But this piece is mainly about Clinton and Obama showing that covert militarism has replaced overt military spending in the presidential candidate’s home state for Democrats in the post-Cold War environment.  The powers that be aren’t about to let someone be elected “emperor” of the world without some important connection to the national security state.

War and Occupy Economics  

This account goes over a variety of lessons learned from examining the year by year record of the last century or so regarding war and the economy.  All war “booms” are followed by post war “busts.”  What creates a war boom is usually a large deficit, so most wars are borrowing sprees and post war paying off the debt will depress the economy.  Economies under occupation under-perform by about 40% and neutral countries have flat economies while their neighbors are at war.

The Worthlessness of War  

This is a retort to the puff piece book that inflates the record of innovations during wartime.  Much research originates in the civilian sector and then gets used in wartime “innovations.”  What would modern warfare be like without the civilian inventions of the railroad, the automobile, and the airplane?  Inventions like fire and the wheel were not for warfare.  The internet came after inventions by British and Swiss scientists led the way.

For the complete text of the seven press releases:

https://www.academia.edu/28245203/WAR_Decision_Mechanisms_2013-2016_8p

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

To be awarded October 7, in Oslo Norway.

Real Economy Institute,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

Special Recognition Award

The Dr. Peace train is gaining momentum.  The West Suburban Faith Based Peace Coalition of Chicago, mainly Du Page County centered, has an annual dinner to celebrate their peace essay contest.  The basis of their peace essay is the Kellogg Briand Pact of 1928 outlawing war and the threat of war in international affairs.  Unfortunately, this agreement is largely ignored in the world today.  Students in particular were encouraged to enter.  An 800 word letter to a significant person in the world is sent out and the reply is included in order to be eligible to win the first second and third place cash awards.  Dr. Peace was encouraged repeatedly to send in a submission, but when he did, he found out about the reply.  Sending to presidential candidates was too much to ask for such busy people, and even broadening the request out to third party candidates Jill Stein of the Greens and Austin Peterson of the Libertarians left no reply.  Still the committee apparently liked my entry enough to earn a Special Recognition Award and a give me a five minute acceptance speech at the banquet on the anniversary of the agreement August 27, 2016.

It was noted at the banquet that the main speaker, Kathy Kelly, is a three time nominated person for the Nobel Peace Prize, and that I was a one time nominee.  The main winner of the award was not present due to being from another country far away, but had a representative there.  It was my random good fortune to end up at the same table as the second place winner, son of a staff person for Democratic U.S. Senate Leader Harry Reid.  His letter was addressed to Senator Reid who did reply to the letter.  I was able to enjoy conversation with his dad as I gave both of them the flyer I passed out to everyone about the “Paradigm Shifts of Peace Economics” which would have been the subject of the last monthly coffee house meeting until I had to cancel due to a schedule conflict.  Encouraged by the conversation I also gave both the son and the dad copies of my “Summary of Military Dis-Economics” one page summary of the thirteen key correlations that define the essence of my theories.

When the moment came for my speech, after the main speaker and before the award winners, I decided the best idea to focus in on was the concept of empire, how military spending leads to empire decline and how that decline shapes the health, safety, civic structure, and politics of the whole society as a direct result.  The main organizer sent me this thank you:  “Thanks, Bob.  You added a lot to the success of the program and you did a wonderful job of summarizing your contribution to the understanding of the benefits to a peace-focused economy.”  My colleague present thought I was a highlight of the whole event.  At the end of my speech I awarded copies of my video to the main speaker and a peace columnist for the Chicago Tribune.  The aide to Senator Reid asked for a copy of the video and I went back to my car and found two more copies and gave him one and took a donation for the other copy from a lady I later found out to be another one of the organizers.  Every one standing around afterwards was eager to talk with me, as I talked with several people.  I urged a social scientist to nominate me for next year’s Nobel Peace Prize, as I expect the process could take several years.

Next month, October 2016, the SAGE Encyclopedia of War is due to be published with two peer reviewed entries of mine in it, each 2000 words, “Military Keynesianism” and “Political Economy of War.”

For the text of the contest entry letter:

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/04/23/dear-future-us-president/

For the five paradigm shifts in the flyer distributed:

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/04/30/paradigm-shifts-of-peace-economics/

For a one page summary of the scope and accuracy of my work given to the Senator’s aide:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_HighAccuracy13

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

to be awarded October 7, in Oslo Norway.

Real Economy Institute,

contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

info www.realeconomy.com

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