When I first heard about the 54 year cycle, I didn’t believe it. I only believed after a congressman called to congratulate me on being elected the vice chair of his district’s Democratic Party organization. He talked about the Kondratiev cycle with me and I decided if it’s good enough for a congressman, it should be good enough for me. Much later it turned out to be the essential understanding to explain the economics of the fifties and to refute the idea that military spending can stimulate the economy. Later regional economics offered another refutation of the idea that military spending can stimulate the economy. Actually its deficit spending that stimulates the economy and this often comes with a war, confusing the public about cause and effect. And ruinous military taxes may impact nonmilitary states and benefit military states, again misleading the public about cause and effect.
The cycle is contained in long term economic growth rate changes in a sinusoidally perfect way once you make the proper adjustments for all the manmade differences like population growth, military spending, and deficit financing to name the most important non cyclic variables. The cycle continues long term despite annual fluctuations in the weather. It doesn’t have the immediate effects of military spending which impact each year as it changes. There is an underlying decadal flow to the earth cycle that does not rely on short term annual circumstances.
The Cycle is precise sometimes and imprecise sometimes. It is accurate to the year about 40% of the time, but can vary a couple years another 40% of the time or sometimes more the rest of the time. The cycle can be measured only from peak to peak or from bottom to bottom. Removing the cycle from the global temperature data gives a 99.8% straight line than changes growth rate only at the beginning of a cycle. That means once a cycle starts, triggered by a burst of solar increase for a couple of decades, the earth takes over. The global warming cycle starts over land with a strong warming, then begins to get tamed in the middle of the cycle by the ocean and that process runs its course through the end of the cycle. In the last time in 1973, the rate suddenly doubled and has remained constant since then. At the end of the current cycle we can expect another substantial increase based on the carbon dioxide situation at that new time after 2025.
Climate science has completely failed to take this cycle into account. The IPCC fifth panel had 200 expert areas and still considered the temperature as undergoing some kind of random walk. I did not have a doctorate when I wrote my first paper, and while it was full of wonderful ideas back in 1991, it does not have the flow and understanding of my current writings. I can easily see their error now because I am the world leader in explaining the nature of the earth cycle and the events it spawns, including economic and political events. They have no explanation for the current stall in global warming since 1998 (as Bill O’Reilly noted 2-19-14), whereas, I know that this condition will continue until about 2025. Some people will be aghast if I cite conservatives, but I take truth where I find it. Liberals will only make their case more difficult denying the reality of the cycle. People need to know the pause since 1998 is both temporary and turbulent and will be followed by the strongest heat wave ever after 2025.
One Page Graph, Proof of the Cycle:
Five Page Description of the Earth Cycle:
Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein