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Archive for the month “February, 2014”

54 Year Cycle is Crucial

When I first heard about the 54 year cycle, I didn’t believe it.  I only believed after a congressman called to congratulate me on being elected the vice chair of his district’s Democratic Party organization.  He talked about the Kondratiev cycle with me and I decided if it’s good enough for a congressman, it should be good enough for me.  Much later it turned out to be the essential understanding to explain the economics of the fifties and to refute the idea that military spending can stimulate the economy.  Later regional economics offered another refutation of the idea that military spending can stimulate the economy.  Actually its deficit spending that stimulates the economy and this often comes with a war, confusing the public about cause and effect.  And ruinous military taxes may impact nonmilitary states and benefit military states, again misleading the public about cause and effect.

The cycle is contained in long term economic growth rate changes in a sinusoidally perfect way once you make the proper adjustments for all the manmade differences like population growth, military spending, and deficit financing to name the most important non cyclic variables.  The cycle continues long term despite annual fluctuations in the weather.  It doesn’t have the immediate effects of military spending which impact each year as it changes.  There is an underlying decadal flow to the earth cycle that does not rely on short term annual circumstances.

The Cycle is precise sometimes and imprecise sometimes.  It is accurate to the year about 40% of the time, but can vary a couple years another 40% of the time or sometimes more the rest of the time.  The cycle can be measured only from peak to peak or from bottom to bottom.  Removing the cycle from the global temperature data gives a 99.8% straight line than changes growth rate only at the beginning of a cycle.  That means once a cycle starts, triggered by a burst of solar increase for a couple of decades, the earth takes over.  The global warming cycle starts over land with a strong warming, then begins to get tamed in the middle of the cycle by the ocean and that process runs its course through the end of the cycle.  In the last time in 1973, the rate suddenly doubled and has remained constant since then.  At the end of the current cycle we can expect another substantial increase based on the carbon dioxide situation at that new time after 2025.

Climate science has completely failed to take this cycle into account.  The IPCC fifth panel had 200 expert areas and still considered the temperature as undergoing some kind of random walk.  I did not have a doctorate when I wrote my first paper, and while it was full of wonderful ideas back in 1991, it does not have the flow and understanding of my current writings.  I can easily see their error now because I am the world leader in explaining the nature of the earth cycle and the events it spawns, including economic and political events.  They have no explanation for the current stall in global warming since 1998 (as Bill O’Reilly noted 2-19-14), whereas, I know that this condition will continue until about 2025.  Some people will be aghast if I cite conservatives, but I take truth where I find it.  Liberals will only make their case more difficult denying the reality of the cycle.  People need to know the pause since 1998 is both temporary and turbulent and will be followed by the strongest heat wave ever after 2025.

One Page Graph, Proof of the Cycle:

https://www.academia.edu/4090273/TEMPERATURE_Adjusted_for_Cycle_1910-1973-2025_1_p._2013

Five Page Description of the Earth Cycle:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._2014

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein

www.realeconomy.com,

bobreuschlein@gmail.com

608-230-6640

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Empire as a Crucial Concept

Why is Empire such a crucial concept?  When you discover that military spending defines economic growth as precisely as I have, it quickly spreads to other topics.  That includes the finding that all Cold War elected presidents came from high military spending states.  When you realize the strong negative relationship between military spending and the whole national economy applies across the G7 countries precisely, and know that Toynbee found that 23 of 25 civilizations declined due to high military spending, Roman Empire comparisons start springing to mind.  Then you test the political finding by measuring the regional effect of military spending and find two different studies come up with 97% correlations.  Then you can reconcile the negative national correlation with the positive regional correlation by noting the economic destruction of regions that pay the military taxes in excess of the military benefits.  Thus the positive correlation is illusory, it comes from extorting one region to enhance another region.  The next question is why does so much social decay occur in declining empires?  So you test this on murder and crime statistics among four of the G7 countries and Sweden and you find another almost perfect correlation of .996.

Then Spirit Level comes out demonstrating that income inequality seems strongly related to a wide variety of social evils.  Then you test this against the empire cause, military spending levels, and find on ten key statistics that the correlation is much higher, .82 to .69, for empire over income inequality, and empire may in fact cause income inequality with a correlation of .77.  Since that correlation is closer to the average key social statistic with military spending than with income inequality, that also suggests empire as the prime cause.

Murder, Crime and Military Spending are 99.6% proportional internationally among the leading industrial nations.

In fact, the 22 states of the Southern United States are twice the murder and military spending rates of the 28 Northern United States.

This is especially true for the Nineteenth Century countries of Japan, Italy, Germany, and the United States.

For the 400 year old societies of England, France, Massachusetts, and Virginia, the murder rates are still proportional to the military spending rates, but at 40% of the level of the 150 year old countries.  So long civilization leads to less crime. R=.93

Thanks to data published in the 2009UK-2010US book The Spirit Level by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, we see an interesting pattern among the developed nations.  That book presents graphs to support their case that income inequality is tied to many health and social problems. They create a nine factor health and social problems index that correlates about 88% with either military spending or income inequality.

However, when you compare military spending correlations with income inequality correlations for these nine factors side by side, there is about a 3% difference in favor of military spending as the strongest overall.  When you drop the three weakest correlations, where neither factor has any robust correlations and look at only the top six where military spending has six 75% or better correlations and income inequality has only three that strong, military spending has a 13% lead with an average correlation of 82% to the income inequality average of 69%.  Clearly, among the most relevant correlations, military spending has the stronger explaining power for:  prisoners (85 to 66); teen births (82 to 74); homicides (80 to 57); mental illness (79 to 74); and for obesity (75 to 52).

When it comes to football being the mean vicious and misogynistic sport of empire like the new Roman Gladiators, the fit seems to be there.  The military correlation with homicides (violence proxy) is robust (80) but the correlation with women’s status is only medium (53) if you drop the outliers of Italy and Japan.  United States women’s status is 57% of the level of Canada, Sweden and Denmark, while the homicide rate of those three countries is only 28% of the United States.  So vicious, yes, but misogynistic, only somewhat.

Overall, for military spending, the strongest factors are the economic ones, followed by the health and social problems, followed by the environmental factors.  The economic relationships with military spending are very strong indicating that all these relationships most probably begin with the economic relationship.

Incidently, the correlation between the military spending and income inequality is a robust .765 (Note, I’m using R not R2 for my percents)

For detailed Empire Economics power point:

https://www.academia.edu/4044446/EMPIRE_ECONOMICS

Dr. Bob Reuschlein

www.realeconomy.com

 

 

Cold Winter, Crazy Weather

Why is the weather so crazy lately?  Scientists took 150 years to figure out that molecular motion and heat were the same thing.    Let’s hope they don’t take so long to recognize my studies of the climate cycle.

First the cold.  Now they call it a polar vortex, thirty years ago they called it the Siberian Express in Eugene, Oregon or an Alberta Clipper in Madison, Wisconsin.  History shows that five of the ten coldest American winters over a fifty year period happened in the thirties.  This was a period of high global warming and the famous Dust Bowl droughts of the Great Depression in America.  So why were the winters so cold?  Because global warming always starts in the supercontinent, that conglomeration of half the world’s land in one place known as Eurasia and North Africa.  So when Siberia heats up, (remember molecular motion?) that supercold region with most of the world’s cold air over land, those air masses start moving.  And when they do, they dump on that small piece of land known as North America, as Siberian high pressure systems ward off the Artic air and as the Artic Ocean dumps on Canada and America they call it a polar vortex.

The other major effect going on is that since 1969 we have been in the Southern Hemisphere driven Ocean based version of the 54 year cycle.  This phase began with the global warming run up until the 1998, with new global highs every few years.  Since oceans dominate the planet this period runs a little long, sixty years, ending in 2028.  We are treading water at a high level with a new round of global warming stalled from 1998 to 2025.  We are in the erratic middle of that stretch, just as Spring and Fall are more erratic than Summer and Winter.  The nature of this period is oceanic, hence droughts and floods and winter storms are accentuated over the coastal areas, hence the California drought and the heavy snow storms of the Northeast and the Atlanta freeze storm, all especially bad in coastal states.

Five Page Description of the Earth Cycle:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._2014

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein

www.realeconomy.com,

bobreuschlein@gmail.com

608-230-6640

Numbers Words Prejudice

Which is better Numbers and Scientific Proof, or Wordy Poetic Conjecture?  Words have the edge in a 90% numbers phobic society.  I love math.  I discovered that some peace studies programs that had learned to work with the business department were flourishing while hostility between peace studies and business caused long established programs to suffer.  What kind of peace program can’t get along with their neighbors?

The number one peace studies program had a smooth relationship with the business department and was number one in economics coverage.  Peace studies program directors with philosophy degrees were in the lower twenty percentile of programs’ economics coverage.  I was recently called arrogant by a philosophy doctorate who writes against anarchists.  Many businesspeople and economists identify with anarchists.

Salem, Oregon peace community has an annual socialists versus anarchists baseball game.  An anarchist peace editor gave me a chance with a monthly column on “Peace Economics” for eight years in a peace newsletter with 10,000 circulation.  I gave that up to create a University of the Air class for Radio for Peace International.

A history degree requires no math.  A historian became a featured speaker and I was systematically excluded from speaking by his cronies in the post 9-11 peace movement.  In my thirteen years of Eugene politics, I was always respected for my speaking ability.  With the return to my hometown in 1993, I became a “prophet without honor in my own home town” until my current run of weekly radio commentaries.

In engineering school it was common knowledge that many who could not handle such rigorous science and math would drop out and become accountants instead.  My brother was one such case.  My father, a lifetime Certified Public Accountant described how many of his classmates who failed a crucial class would go on to become economists.  So when I made four honor societies earning my electrical engineering degree from the third ranked such program in the country, I was not third string like the economists.  When I took statistics for engineers one summer and dropped into statistics for businessmen classes after about a month, I discovered that we engineers were about twice as far along learning statistics for the same credit hours.

The saying “lies, damn lies and statistics” is usually just a word person’s way of discriminating against number people.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein

Math loving engineer accountant and businessman

www.realeconomy.com

bobreuschlein@gmail.com

608-230-6640

My life’s work in a one page summary:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY

Worklife Long Cycle: Kondratiev

The man who discovered the 54 year cycle was a Russian Marxist Economist who agreed with Lenin that small businesses should operate freely.  Unfortunately for him, Stalin wanted all business controlled by the state.  Even more problematic, Nikolai Kondratiev predicted that the Great Depression was not the end of capitalism as Stalin saw it, but a bump on the road to postwar prosperity as the cycle continued.  This led to his execution on September 17, 1938 at the age of 46.

Because of his origins in Communist Russia, Kondratiev’s theory has long been largely ignored in the West.  Mainstream economists have even called one of his followers, J W Forrester of MIT and the founder of Systems Dynamics, a charlatan.  Despite the high mainstream skepticism, this theory has great accuracy and usefulness they do not understand.

On Saturday March 8th 2014 at 10am in Sequoya Library, Madison, Wisconsin, USA, we will celebrate the 122nd birthday of this great Russian genius.

I was told by a friend Lyman G. Hill, XIII that the cycle was 54 years, with an economic up cycle of 24 years and a down cycle of 30 years.  These are the exact parameters I used to create my 60 year model of US manufacturing productivity with a .999 correlation coefficient.  My friend also told me about the hot and cold periods, but it was up to me to develop the connection between the weather cycle, the economic cycle, and the war cycle.  I have diligently worked for years to create the proof and explain how the earth cycle operates.  If I ever get a Nobel Prize, it will be for these connections and explanations of the cycle and macroeconomics.  In 1978 I had set out to become president some day, but instead discovered this scientific theory which will be my legacy.                                          Five pages on the Kondratiev Wave:
https://www.academia.edu/6044919/WORK_LIFE_CYCLE
Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein

Math loving engineer accountant politician and businessman

www.realeconomy.com

bobreuschlein@gmail.com

608-230-6640

Hurricane Flood Climate Cycle

Video: http://vimeo.com/54044778

To find out if a hurricane or flood is in your community’s future this year, look back 54 years, give or take two years, and see if a major flood or hurricane hit you then.  In February, it’s not too late to build up your community’s defenses, so contact your state and local officials now.

The weather cycle consists of 27 years of the Earth in a cooling trend, and 27 years of the Earth in a warming trend.  Around the end of a cooling trend or the end of a warming trend, you have the most extreme events.  The current warming trend ended in 1998 and the cooling trend we are now in should end about 2025, the time of the next major war.

In successive 54 year cycles, the land heavy Northern Hemisphere or the ocean heavy Southern Hemisphere alternately drives the heating cycle. In a complete pair of cycles the ocean based cycle has more coastal droughts and floods and the land based cycle has more inland droughts and floods.   So while most events are 54 year, a few are half cycle 27 or double cycle 108 years.

The hurricanes featured in the 56 event list include the big one, Hugo hit North Carolina in 1989 and dumped 12 inches of rain on the state, just like the 12 inches the same month of September in 1944, 55 years before.  Andrew in 1992 hit Miami with the biggest devastation in American history at the time, 27 years after the last Miami hurricane and 57 years after the one before that.  The deadliest hurricane in Louisiana history, 2000 deaths came 112 years before Katrina’s second deadliest at 1500 deaths.  The only other New Orleans hurricane hit 54 years after the first and 58 years before Katrina.  Sandy hit New York flooding the battery in 2012 and 52 years after the last flooding of the battery in 1960.  Haiyan hit the Phillipines in 2013 and 55 years before was the only hurricane to hit the Phillipines in the fifties and sixties.

Note the San Francisco earthquake is likely this year on the 108th anniversary of the 1906 earthquake.

Here’s a link to 56 more examples of the “peak to peak” 54 year weather cycle events:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein

www.realeconomy.com,

bobreuschlein@gmail.com

608-230-6640

My life’s work in a one page summary:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY

 

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