bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the month “June, 2019”

Because Of The Nine Fields

Overview

Too many people doubt the miracle science of Peace Economics because they don’t recognize 1) that I’m honest and my work can be replicated 2) it really does take all nine of these fields that have three years full time work equivalent in each field.  Take away any of these nine building blocks and the theory would be inadequate to the understandings needed to create the precise science models that have resulted.

Math

A comprehensive understanding of the field of math provides many tools needed for a thorough investigation. “Triangulation” is an essential technique to prove a finding from a variety of methods or angles.  “Differential Equations” always have a sinusoidal solution and this insight is vital to both the long-term economic model design and the long-term temperature modeling.  “La Place Transform” is a technique to highlight time frequencies of repeating events from any data set and leads to a compelling proof of long cycle theory.

Wargaming  

“Conflict Simulation Modeling” game design improves judgement and model building skills in a variety of ways.  “Probability” life is uncertain, and probability is extensively studied and used in wargaming.  “Military History” is the ideal strived for in wargame design, hence history is popular among gamers and helps in defense strategy modeling.

Science

“Laws of Physics” the order and precision of the universe and gravity guides much of what we do.  Six semesters of college physics define much of how our physical world precisely works.   “Momentum” defense modeling relies on the tendency of nations to maintain a fixed army or navy size over time, sort of like a conservation of momentum.

Engineering

“Control Theory” divides into a response phase and a steady state phase.  This explains the form of the long-term model, with a normal sinusoidal component and an abrupt discontinuity to a lower downward track for the Great Depression thirties and later the Oil Crisis seventies.  “Multi-Year Averaging” engineers need to estimate situations various ways, and this is one technique used extensively in my investigation to locate tops and bottoms of long term paths.

Accounting

“Bookkeeping” is a system of keeping track of data in various categories to give meaning to the results.  Various social data categories help show the depth and breadth of empire decay beyond the economic.  “Present Fairly” is a clause in the CPA financial statement that emphasizes the ethical code of a CPA.  This concept leads to estimations being used to fill in otherwise empty blanks.  Accounting leads to an attitude of forced completion that does not tolerate incomplete pictures.  This discipline makes sure the estimation muscle is exercised and improves intelligent estimating abilities.

Business

“Entrepreneurship” is a skill in organizing and guiding efforts towards a result, as well as an openness to new ideas.  “Decision Trees” show how one thing leads to another, a key investigative technique used extensively in my model building.

Politics

“Covers Everything” A legislative internship is an amazing window on how expert testimony in committees sheds amazing light on all manner of human endeavors.  General information can be extremely detailed and informative.  One of my greatest educational experiences was working in the legislative arena. “Social Science” going to hundreds of committee meetings in the civic calendar is also an extraordinary education.  In politics I learned about the Kondratiev Wave 54-year cycle and the importance of nine-year Juglar cycles, two key components to the long-term economic model that economists hardly ever mention much less use.

Peace Economics

“Follow the Dominoes” follow the money helps confirm the nature of military spending and shows how the military spending domino leads to various adverse consequences of an empire society directly related to the military spending.  Politics is perverted and controlled, as is health crime and social-economic consequences.

Warming Cycle

“Evaporation Energy Balance” the Earth’s land warms about three times as fast as the ocean, yet energy balance requires this to balance out over time.  Sixteen long term records of temperature and precipitation helped locate the driving forces in this process by dividing the Earth up in various ways.  “Three Cycles Confirm” the 54-year cycle resides in natural, economic, and war timing data.  Relating these three fields helps confirm the bona fides of all three separate forms of the cycle.

For additional information about the seventeen main findings:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

See my Curriculum Vitae for the nine fields on my resume:  https://realeconomy.academia.edu/RobertReuschlein/CurriculumVitae

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, June 26), “Because Of The Nine Fields” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Because-of-the-Nine-Fields,2019182265.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 71 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Value of Telling the Truth 

Overview

In this era of Fake News and those who seek the truth being labelled “Enemies of the People”, honesty seems almost an endangered species. While those in pursuit of science seek truth as their goal, those who practice more social skills still value the white lie.  Finding the truth on the internet is an elusive endeavor.

Personal History

Truth has been my North Star just as much as mathematics has been to me personally.  Math and truth are similar in being very straight forward and exacting.  Very early in life I committed to never lie.  I might be silent sometimes or perhaps change the subject, but I do not remember telling a lie until I was 23 years old.  I was very fierce about this, and still am very resistant to anything that is not the truth.  I remember an eighth grader bullying a fellow third grader on the path home from school and that’s when I committed to social justice.  It is said “to one’s own self be true and to no one else can thou be false.”  This works for me.  Lying only makes things confusing and too complicated to follow well.  The liar reaches the point of the saying “Oh what I tangled web we weave once we begin to deceive.”  Kind of like saying it’s hard to be true to your lies.

Truth  

Telling the truth, being always truthful, has been very important in building my personal understanding of life.  When confronted with two seemingly contradictory facts, I have always looked for ways both can be true.  This has sometimes taken some time but sooner or later an explanatory vision will come to me.  This tool has been important in building my scientific model of the world and how the world works.  Others will quit and be satisfied with confusion and “just let it go” but I keep the thought in the back of my mind until resolution results.  In this way I am always trying to learn, and always striving for more perfect understanding.

Tactlessness

Adhering to the principle of truth makes the white lie a skill I have refused to develop.  Some people, most people, would rather be liked or appreciated, but I value respect and attention more.  This springs from my devotion to honesty.

Trust

In the Spirit Level, Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger book (2009-2011 Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett) the authors find that trust is the most important variable in why income inequality weakens societies.  Trust comes from honesty and truth telling.

Lying

“Diogenes of Sinope (c. 404-323 BCE) was a Greek Cynic philosopher best known for holding a lantern (or candle) to the faces of the citizens of Athens claiming he was searching for an honest man.” (Ancient History Encyclopedia).  Lying has been found in 24% of resumes and half of all academic articles have false data used. The president has been documented by the Washington Post and the New York Times in over 10,000 lies.  What is amazing is that the president’s followers believe he tells the truth.  Thanks to the new “Pravda” state TV of Fox News his easily debunked view of the world is substantiated by his sycophants.  But the problem of lying is that the truth comes out eventually.  But zealots everywhere have trouble recognizing the truth.  It is easier to recognize the truth if you live a truthful life.  Trump knows branding and marketing but has no interest in sticking to the truth if it damages the marketing.  Nazi Joseph Goebbels knew it didn’t matter if the truth got out so long as the propaganda narrative remained preeminent.

Modern World

In the modern world of the internet, truth is hard to discern, and may even be confusing to the younger generation because it is so elusive.  When you talk about truth, they give you blank stares.  Late Night TV host Stephen Colbert has even coined the word “truthiness” to convey this ambiguity.  Wikipedia states “Truthiness is the belief or assertion that a particular statement is true based on the intuition or perceptions of some individual or individuals, without regard to evidence, logic, intellectual examination, or facts.”

Peace Economics

In pursuit of the truth by research and engineering, art science and math all play important roles.  When the broad picture is a little muddy, various ways of examining the details can help enormously to clarify whatever is the truth.  This is often a search for highs, lows, and parameters for an underlying model then testing that model against the actual data to see what scale fits most exactly.  If it is basic truth, it should work best under the most extreme circumstances, like World War II or the Great Depression.  My economic model has gradually improved over the last hundred years as the annual precision has approached the accuracy of the long-term model.  Fine tuning then leads to more unexplained details standing out.  Such a process should never be confused or dismissed as cherry-picking, it is just the recognition that even when theory explains most cases, there will always be details that need a new explanation, often a relatively obvious explanation.  That is the nature of engineering science.  Follow the data closely and with a wide range of perspectives or fields, if you are looking for the truth.  Don’t let red herrings based on knowledge you are making obsolete lead you astray from findings that better explain the totality of the circumstances.

For additional information about this see:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, June 19), “Value of Telling the Truth” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Value-of-Telling-the-Truth,2019182057.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 68 in 8.5 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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