bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the tag “politics”

Born in the United States

Listening to various music on the plane back to America from Norway, Bruce Springsteen’s album “Born in the USA” inspired this Peace Economics approach to these song titles.

Working on the Highway

This song reminds me of the story of American on the rise.  United by the Civil War and ever expanding Westward, America started the twentieth century a rising industrial power with the largest economy in the world.  Frederick Taylor, inventing industrial engineering in the age of railroads in the 1890s, found out that productivity for laying railroads peaked at 64 degrees Fahrenheit.  As temperatures increase above that level proportionately less work gets done.  This shows how capital accumulation and the economy improves slightly with slightly lower temperatures or slows down slightly with slightly higher temperatures, as most capital, economic progress, and infrastructure starts with construction.  A century of data confirms these patterns.

 

Glory Days

This song about those that peaked in high school reminds me about America’s fixation with World War II (WWII) and the so-called Greatest Generation.  Yes, the Marshall Plan was infinitely better than the 1919 Versailles treaty which gave us WWII.  But even the Marshall Plan only supplied 10% of the internally generated capital in Japan and Germany in the 1950s.  Important startup capital, but low military spending was the real secret ingredient that gave both Japan and Germany average economic growth rates over 8% for the decade of the fifties.  They both thank America for democracy, especially the more modern parliamentary type, including Japan’s antiwar constitution and Germany’s equal representation with owners for workers on corporate boards.  Thanks America.  The military burdens of empire have held America back ever since WWII, hence the fixation with those glory days of the so-called good war.  Most wars ever since have ended badly.

Born in the USA

America’s 329 million includes 47 million immigrants, largely thanks to the 1965 Immigration Act. That’s 14.4% of the US population.  In the age of empire after 1945, immigrants have bolstered the economy with one Newsweek article suggesting that immigrants make about 2.5 times as much as other Americans.  This “all roads lead to Rome” keeps the American economy a world leader, despite the economic erosion of the highest military budget in the world.  Many physicians, dentists, lawyers, engineers, scientists, accountants, and rich businesspeople are among those immigrants often educated in the US and seeking to stay.  Meanwhile ever since the number one nuclear weapons contractor spokesperson Ronald Reagan tricked people into cutting the top tax rate 60% while only helping the middle class 15% in the name of a 25% tax cut, income inequality has quadrupled top 1% incomes while the 99% have had their incomes frozen for forty years.  Yes, that stagnancy even includes the rest of the top 5%.  And the real winners are the top 0.1%.  Only about 25% of immigrants are the poor South of the border type, and about 80% are legal.

I’m Going Down

Peace Economics shows strong international comparison correlations with high crime, corruption, and low health for the higher militarized economies.  This is the essence of the social decline of empire that accompanies the slow steady economic decline.  Even today political crisis pervades the three most militarized countries in NATO, America, Britain, and France.  Trump has disrupted America, Brexit befuddles Britain, and Macron’s elite policies with a blind spot to income inequality in France have created turmoil in all three countries.  All three have faced unwanted Russian interventions.  Meanwhile the most successful economy in Europe, Germany, has had up until now the lowest percentage of military spending at a mere 1%.  That 1% military has been the secret of success for pre-WWII America and post-WWII Japan.  The last three decades Japan has grown little while Japanese capital has brought up the whole Far East neighborhood, starting with the Four Tigers of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea and proceeding after that with China.  The Fujian province next to Hong Kong is where the high growth started in China in the 1980s.  Hong Kong was taking over China economically before China took over Hong Kong politically in 1999.  And low military Italy overtook Britain in 1987 in per capita income, the same year Japan passed America in per capita economy.  Then Britain found North Sea Oil, and Japan peaked in 1994 at 40% higher per capita income over America and has slumped to 25% higher in 2000 and continues to slump.

No Surrender

Americans famously used the Alamo “no surrender” policy to fend-off the Mexican army long enough to rally enough troops to defend Texas in 1845.  Much later, America adopted the unconditional surrender demand for fighting the tyrants of World War II.  Then the Republican Party took the idea too far, applying it in domestic politics, led by Newt Gingrich in 1994 as the first Republican Speaker of the House in forty years.  Extremism and the politics of personal destruction took hold after 46 years of the Cold War, ironically just after the Cold War ended.  But the excessive militarism of the long high military spending in peacetime years of the Cold War (1945-1991) had kind of baked into the cake the habits of empire.  So entwined was the nation in militarism that George H. W. Bush had to tempt a cash starved Iraq (drained by the Iran war) into trying to reclaim oil rich Kuwait as the 18th province separated from the rest of Iraq by the British in 1921.  He told his ambassador to Iraq to say the US didn’t care about border disputes after encouraging the Kuwaitis to slant drill underground for oil under the ground in Iraq.  Then he acted with outrage and rallied the UN to “free” Kuwait.  This saved the military from appearing irrelevant after the end of the Cold War, holding the Cold War defense budget cuts to 25% while Europe cut their forces 50%.  Empire was saved enough to be restored in the second Bush presidency after eight years of peace and prosperity.  Meanwhile, the second Democratic presidency after the Cold War was met with total noncooperation from the Republican Party and the Republican Party brought their Southern style politics North in 2010 to rebuke the first Black president.  Extremism was normalized, making Trump possible, in a new post-truth society of unlimited propaganda.  America had the equivalent of Caligula, the crazy emperor of Rome who lasted four years.

One Page Principles Summary of Peace Economics: https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p. 13

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, December 14), “Born in the United States”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Born-in-the-United-States,2018165532.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Demagoguery United States

President Trump continues to break all the modes of behavior of past presidents as he focuses on appealing to his base and allegedly fulfilling his promises.  He continues to lie more and more, six a day his first year (Washington Post) and 16 a day his second year (New York Times) and recently 24 a day in a recent campaign week (New York Times).  He claims to be winning all the time and attacks his enemies all the time.  He attacks everyone in sight one time or another, intimidating his own political party into submissive following, for fear of being primaried out of office by Trump allies, if they don’t go along with his lies and attacks.  He has got the Fox News network to go along except for Shepard Smith in the afternoon who fearlessly continues with reality instead of the latest Trump fantasy.  Sean Hannity seems to be his closest confidant.  How does he do it?  Unfortunately, it seems to be working as his approval, once in the thirties, is now in the forties.  Yet a powerful backlash is shaping up in the House, but he may well keep the Senate on his side.

Economic Claims

Lawyers know that if the facts are on your side, talk the facts; if the law is on your side, talk the law; if neither is on your side, pound the table and scream and shout a lot.  There’s a lot of the latter going on.  But just lying as if things are going your way is the simplest Trump tactic. He takes credit for the economic trend start by Obama after the unemployment rate stopped rising in 2010.  Since then the Obama unemployment rate was dropping almost twice as fast 2011-2015 until Trump took office.  That was mostly due to a drop in military spending after pulling out of Iraq in 2011.  But Obama made the mistake Bill Clinton made at the end, using a small military buildup to “help” the Democrat running in his last year, although it hurts the economy to increase military spending, but it can help locally in some states.  2000 and 2016 slowed down in job and economic growth and increasing in unemployment rate thanks to this mistaken thinking.  Obama prolonged the delay in recovery by tripling the troops in Afghanistan during the Great Recession 2008-2009 years, leading to a six month pause at peak unemployment levels from September 2009 to February 2010.  This meant average unemployment levels for the year grew from 2009 to 2010, helping the Tea Party Republican wave election of 2010.  Back to Trump.  The Trump military buildup of his first two years continued the slower 2016 recovery for two more years.  The tax cut was not enough to offset this military buildup, and the tariffs hurt farmers and autos, while the Federal Reserve interest rate uptick was scapegoated for much of the blame.  The claim that the unemployment rate was the lowest in thirty years is meaningless because the improvement is much less than the Obama recovery years.  And the stock market was, long before it happened, predicted to rebound from the uncertainty of the 2016 election year stall, so Trump falsely claimed credit for that.  This year 2018, the stock market is in more of a stall than a good year, so Trump is mum.

Caravan News

Shepherd Smith puts this in perspective by describing the results of the April Caravan.  Then that ended up with only 14 arrests, and Bill Marr says the 7000 strong has already faded to half that number still two months away from arrival (1000 miles at 20 miles a day is fifty days).  And the Mexicans are helping, asking the refugees to stay and become Mexicans.  Then the attempted bomb attack on leading Democrats and the killing of 11 Jewish people in a Synagogue by obviously inflamed Trump supporters dampens the mood of Republicans after the Kavanaugh bump.  The October surprise looks negative for Republicans.  And Trump’s claim that he is a nationalist seems to have backfired as a confirmation of white nationalism by the white supremacy movement.  If Trump is not a racist, funny how David Duke seems to consider him one of them.  The preferential treatment in favor of Southern states that voted for Trump like Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina can easily be contrasted with the shabby treatment of brown skinned Puerto Ricans in the face of their respective hurricanes.  Trump even broke up an immigration deal because he didn’t want people from s**thole countries.  He even once called the White House a s**thole place.  The caravan propaganda is directly related to the mail bomber and the Synagogue shooter.

Demagogues in Empire Theory

Demagoguery is not essential to empire theory, but more and more elitist behavior and idiosyncratic behavior is consistent with the notion that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.  Trump reminds one of the Roman emperor Caligula, given that derisive nickname that means “little boots” and considering that that crazy emperor lasted only four years.  A crazy president with “little hands” (Marco Rubio). Although he suggested on the campaign trail “no problem there” Stormy Daniels seems to disagree, as evidenced by a selection from the Jimmy Kimmel interview of Stormy Daniels.  We can only hope he lasts four years or less.  Trump appears narcissistic and so vane he is easily manipulated by tyrants with flattery, as in North Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.  He prefers autocrats (strongmen) over Democratic leaders as he has abdicated leadership of the free world to Angie Merkel.  He also seems to have trouble with powerful women leaders like Angie Merkel of Germany and Teresa May of Great Britain.  When the UN laughed at his claim of being a leading figure of American history, he later claimed they were laughing with him not at him.  When he makes fun of others he often seems to be guilty of those same flaws himself, a perfect mirror of projection.  While he never hesitates to criticize any of his critics, he is never critical of Putin, suggesting Putin does have something over him.  He has sold (or money laundered?) over 600 condos to Russians at an average cost of $250,000 each for a total of $150 million. The Saudis have stepped up business with Trump hotels as many have begun to shun the Trump name brand.  All this in fragrant violation of the constitutional prohibition of accepting emoluments from foreign nations.  Mar a Lago has doubled its fees in the Florida resort country club known as the Southern White House.  He talks to many on an unsecure cellphone, allowing the Russians and Chinese to easily profile him.  This stands in hypocritical contrast to the endless use of emails against Hillary Clinton in the campaign, despite the FBI never finding that security was ever breeched in her email server.

Another Six Pages of Effects of Empire Demagoguery and Militarism:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, November 2), “Demagoguery United States”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: 7 https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Demagoguery-United-States,2018163869.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Rights and Climate Cycles

Examples will be cited and interrelated throughout this article, especially the events of the last two years in America, with important implications for the election next week.

Atmosphere is a term that can be used at least two ways.  It can be a social term or a natural events term.  Perhaps these two uses can be related.  Rights, especially human rights, can have many interpretations, in this article especially racial rights and women’s rights.  Social atmosphere evolves throughout the long term 54-year economic cycle, manifesting in a political events cycle as economic improvements lead to opportunities for changes in human rights.  Turning points occur every 27 years in the 54-year cycle, in all three aspects of the cycle, the natural events cycle, the economic cycle, and the political social cycle.

Year of the Woman, 2018 and 1992

Punctuated by the rejection of the first woman presidency and the election of a man committed to white male supremacy and male sexual privilege, the largest demonstration in American history occurred when women rallied the next day to protest the presidential inauguration, January 21, 2017.  That has led to this year of the Resistance with the possible election of over 100 women to the new congress which currently has 84 women in the House of Representatives.  The last year of the woman was 1992 after a controversial Supreme Court nomination in 1991.  The recent Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings of 2018 are an exact half cycle of 27 years after those 1991 Anita Hill sexually harassment charges against subsequently confirmed Justice Clarence Thomas, the Justice that never asks questions.  Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed on a straight party line vote with one exception each way, 51-49, despite credible allegations of attempted rape when he was age 17, 36 years ago in 1982.  Professor Catherine Blasey Ford has been traumatized for life by that event when she attended a party at age 15, as confirmed by lie detector test now and marriage counseling twelve years ago, and the double front door remodel years before that.  Other women have confirmed the high school and college year mean drunk sexually abusive days of the still beer loving Justice.  Typical frat boy story of male privilege.  In the words of the Justice, “What goes on at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep.”  Boys will be boys in the eyes of conservative rural women voters, but the normally conservative college educated wives in the suburbs have had enough (Me Too movement) and are voting for a new majority in congress with a 30% gender gap in voter preference overall.

Black Lives Matter

Colin Kaepernick, National Football League former Super Bowl starting quarterback who lost that game by only 3 points, 31-34, became a champion for Nike this year.  He was villainized by the extreme right wing and their President for his kneeling at the national anthem before a game to protest senseless police killings of black people.  Football refuses to rehire him (blackballing) since then at age 26.  The history starts with the Los Angeles Watts riot of 1965, then the Los Angeles Rodney King riots perfect half cycle 27 years later in 1992, leading to the Baltimore riots of 2015, the Kaepernick kneeling in 2016, and today’s rehiring of him as spokesperson for Nike this year in 2018, 26 years after the Rodney King riots.  Next week should elect a black man governor of Florida and maybe a black woman governor of Georgia.  This would come a perfect 54 years after the Nobel Peace Prize award to Martin Luther King, jr. in 1964.  The then record-breaking protest crowd of 230,000 in August 1963 featured King’s famous “I Have a Dream” speech, a cycle perfect 54 years later in 2017 the women’s march set a new protest record nationwide of 4 million.

Civil Rights Cycle

My jaw nearly dropped when the daughter of Brown in the landmark Brown vs Board of Education Supreme Court decision of 1954 recited prior landmark events that fit the 54-year cycle.  Here is my report on 3-29-14: “The daughter of the man named Brown in the famous Brown vs. Board of Education Supreme Court case (decided in 1954 when she was 4 years old) came to Madison, Wisconsin this week.  She spoke in Anderson Auditorium at the same Edgewood where I earned my High School Diploma and much later my Doctorate in Educational Leadership.  On her power point were two other epic events of the long civil rights struggle.  The first desegregation case was in 1849 vs. City of Boston.  Then came the famous “Separate but Equal” decision of Plessey vs. Ferguson in 1896.  Putting these all together with the election of the first Black President in 2008, you have four Kondratiev Wave points in a row.  The perfect 54-year cycle points would be 1846, 1900, 1954, and 2008.  The first two are three years late and four years early.  The last two are perfect fits, 1954 and 2008.”

Hurricane Cycles

The epic hurricanes of the last two years in America set various records and repeated various similar major hurricanes of cycle years past, mainly 54-year repeats or 27-year repeats, always using consistent regional comparisons.  The regional impact is important, otherwise there would be too many hurricanes to compare based only on dates. The major hurricane population event was CAT 4 Harvey hitting Houston in 2017 just 56 years after CAT 5 Carla hit Texas in 1961.  Harvey was much worse rain-wise with 30-inch-deep floods in the greater Houston area for days.  Then CAT 5 Irma 2017 hit the Keys and flooded downtown Miami with 8 feet of water, 25 years after CAT 5 Andrew hit Miami hard and 52 years after the 1965 Miami hurricane.  CAT 5 Maria devastates Puerto Rico and populated by brown people with no presidential vote, gets the least US relief aid, showing the President’s mainland Texas, Florida, and white bias. This is preceded by CAT 4 Hugo which clips Puerto Rico CAT 3 on the way to devastating North Carolina in 1989.  28 years (1 off 27-year half cycle) later Maria hits in 2017. 29 years (2 off 27-year half cycle) later CAT 4 Florence hits North Carolina with worse flooding than Hugo rain-wise.

This year 2018 CAT 4 Hurricane Lane hits Hawaii 26 years (1 off 27-year half cycle) after CAT 4 Iniki hits in 1992.  2018 CAT 5 Michael hits Florida panhandle very hard with tornado like winds: Alma CAT3 in 1966 weakens to CAT1, hits 52 years (2 short of 54) before, same place South of Tallahassee.  The difference was warmer global warming waters accelerate Michael this year while approaching coast weakened Alma in 1966, as both crossed the Caribbean.

Phony Trump Claims on Economy

Jobs growth for 2017 was at the lowest growth in six years, 20% below Obama average last five years after he withdrew from Iraq in 2011 and cut military spending 2012-2015.  Job growth so far for 2018 pro rata is 2.468 million slightly below the 2.5 million jobs per year for the last five Obama years. This suggests the tax cut has offset the military increase for no net effect.  Unemployment rates went up in 2009 and 2010 by 3.8% over 2008 because of the Great Recession.  After that Obama averaged an unemployment rate drop of 0.83% per year from 2011 to 2015.  Then the Obama drop in 2016 was only 0.42% due to the military buildup begun that year and continued and increased by Trump.  Trump has continued that low level of unemployment drop with 2017 drop 0.52% and 2018 drop pro rata of 0.56% so far.  The stock market gain was a natural rebound from the uncertainty of the election result holding back stocks in 2016.  With the uncertainty removed, the stock made up for lost growth right after the election.  Now stocks, which earlier benefited from the 70% stock buyback use of the tax cut (which only benefited stockowners and not the real economy) are suffering from the tariffs in agriculture and car manufacturing and the very small federal reserve interest rate increase,

Two Charted Pages Cataloging 56 Key Cycle History Repeat Events:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yrCycle_3p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 30), “Rights and Climate Cycles”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Rights-and-Climate-Cycles,2018163762.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Valuable Peace Economics

What I call Peace Economics is an evolution of ideas that spring from reassessing the false theory that military spending stimulates the economy.  What is revolutionary about this idea is the mathematical certainty of the models that verify it and the long shadow of internal political, social, defense, and historical consequences that spring directly from the military economy.

Military Spending Hurts the National Economy (#1 Idea)

This first finding surprised me so much because I had assumed that military Keynesianism showed that military spending helped the economic growth rate.  But Ruth Sivard’s work so contradicted that knowledge I had been taught at college that I instantly shared her bar charts all over the State of Oregon Legislature.  Finding that others did not share my clear vision and enthusiasm led to the exhaustive tests and proofs that she was right that I eventually named Peace Economics.  The peace movement was seemingly just as deluded as the economists, politicians, and journalists.  The peace movement was principally concerned only two ways, about nuclear weapons and about human rights.   This central finding led to a new economic theory, proof of the Kondratiev Wave (54 yr.), and proof of the Juglar Cycle (8-10 yr.).  Keynes and Roosevelt had already proven the economic stimulus value of the national deficit.  It has been a long heavy lift to establish the other three basic points, just as Thomas Kuhn’s Structure of a Scientific Revolution would predict.

Military Spending Hurts the National Defense (#2 Idea)

My second book title, Strength Through Peace, conveys this concept.  While defenders of the military industrial complex often resort to the slogan Peace Through Strength, I find that slogan very misleading.  The real power of a nation lies in its economic strength even more than its military strength.  The short-term benefits of military spending are usually meager compared to the steady erosion of economic strength military spending causes.  In fact, because of Idea #1 above, premature high levels of military spending when threats are relatively low only serve the purpose of gradually weakening a nation when a major threat shows up some time later.  The longer the interval before a real military need emerges, the greater the weakening rendered by excessively high premature levels of military spending.  The Defense Strategy chapter of my 1986 book Peace Economics shows some of the trade-off charts used to estimate appropriate levels of military spending for the longer term or even for the shorter-term strategies.

Military Spending Dominates and Controls a Nation (#3 Idea)

This shows up in the regional nature of changes in military spending. What crystalizes this as a mathematical relationship is looking at the degree of militarization of a state’s economy and lumping states together in one region based on major metropolitan centers that can pull several states together into a mini-region.  Thus, the military states concept shows how politics in the United States is dominated by the military industrial complex.  All of America’s leading political institutions are dominated by figures from the high military spending states and regions.  That includes about 80% of the presidents since World War II, 80% of the cabinet, 80% of congressional leadership, and 80% of the supreme court.  The misleading positive correlation with military spending regionally fails to recognize the losses in manufacturing states under military buildups and the gains in manufacturing states under military builddowns. In other words, the nation as a whole gains when the military lowers and the nation as a whole loses when the military is increased.  This contrast shows up most sharply between the Great Lakes states industrial heartland versus the high military and financial states of the bi-coastal economy.  Great opportunities exist in the financial markets to exploit these regional differences whenever a major change in military spending occurs.

Episodic Nature of Major Wars and Economic and Natural Events (#4 Idea)

The Kondratiev Wave, 54-year cycle, shows up precisely as a perfectly sinusoidal fluctuation in the manufacturing productivity growth rate in the 63-year model mentioned in Idea #1.  After the 1988 drought in the United States I took three years to figure out the natural connection to this cycle and the war cycle.  After hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012, I created a chart of 56 major natural, economic, and war event examples of the cycle, with about 95% accuracy. I also established the connecting mechanisms between these three different forms of the cycle.  This is a great achievement that will improve forecasting for hurricanes, great recessions, and wars.  This makes possible a rational reduction in military spending as part of a national defense strategy.  Millions will benefit from improved forecasting of economic and natural disasters and wars might even be avoided when their causes are better understood as part of this long cycle.

Empire Decline and Socioeconomic Decay (#5 Idea)

My 1989 work first showed the murder and crime correlations with military spending.  This is a leading indicator of the social decay that occurs with prolonged levels of high military spending in a nation and shows up in the sharp drop in crime that occurred in the nineties with the end of Cold War high levels of military spending.  This also helps explain how crime has dropped in Germany and other European countries much more than in the United States in the twenty-first century, thanks to the post 9-11-01 military buildup and wars waged by the United States.  In fact, the Index created in the Spirit Level book shows that empire and military spending correlate even stronger than income inequality with obesity, mental health, teen birthrates, prisoners, and homicides.  The theory of empire that blames collapse on moral weakness has it backwards.  High military spending changes change the economy in the same year they occur, showing that the economic effect occurs first before the social effects, just as crime drops in the nineties took several years to take hold rather than happening immediately.  Cause and effect require a closer look than just watching correlations.  Military spending is the first domino to fall in the long process of manufacturing decline and social decay of empire. Rigidity is a result of the ensuing stagnation.  Stagnation comes in many forms, from political, to class rigidity, and the lack of social mobility.

Twelve Stages of Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 1), “Valuable Peace Economics”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Valuable-Peace-Economics,2018162572.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Spectrum Peace Economics

This is looking at the invisible (beyond the first fifty) press release views on ExpertClick.com from 51 to 198.  These show increased results from the last year and are quite instructive.  Name, date, new views and rank of new views.

CIA Presidents, 1-23-16, 267 views (#1)

This drew the top interest.  Few know that Presidents Clinton and Obama worked for the CIA prior to being elected president, and, no doubt it was a major contributing factor to their success.  To be elected emperor requires either coming from a high military spending state or the CIA.   The other CIA president, George Bush Sr., was appointed CIA director under Ford “despite his lack of CIA experience.”  Evidence shows he was CIA circa 1963 in Dallas.  Obama went to Pakistan twice 1981-83, the staging ground for the Afghanistan War by the CIA against Russia.  Clinton’s home state of Arkansas was ground zero for factories contributing to the eighties Contra War in Nicaragua.  See also CIA lifetime history, 4-16-16, 117 views (#26)

Earthquake Prediction, 8-26-14, 261 views (#2)

Earthquake prediction and especially hurricane prediction are important components of the natural 54 year cycle theory, a key to the 63 year US economic model, and the timing of major wars (US, Europe, and Rome).  War prediction enables a country to take advantage of peace economics to keep military spending minimal (and growth high) during more peaceful periods (circa 1977 to 2004, circa 2031 to 2058) and to better prepare for the circa 2025 major war.  See also Nepal Chile 4-28-15, 185 views (#7) and Violence Cycle, 11-29-15, 172 views (#10) and Cycle Matters, 8-3-14, 118 views (#25).

Nobel Prize Watch, 3-19-16, 254 views (#3)

This summarizes my early attempts to watch the Norwegian Nobel Committee watch me after my first nomination due 2-1-16.  The near miss in 2017 and the “ten times normal” heavy watching this year in 2018 make me very optimistic about October 5th.  See also Response Norway, 2-6-16, 130 views (#18)

Religion and Empire, 1-3-15, 207 views (#4)

Some have estimated that as much as 63% of wars have religion as a main cause.  My point in this release was that the Roman Empire coopted Christianity and put a lesser importance on doctrines of the peaceful shall inherit the earth, live by the sword and die by the sword, good Samaritan, and turn the other cheek.  Also that the Roman Catholic church became the first protestant church when Rome asserted authority over the four other Pentarchy centers of the early Chistian church, Alexandria, Constantinople, Jerusalem, and Antioch.  Note that half the leaders of communes in first two hundred years of the early church were women, before patriarchy took over.  Empire and militarism promote patriarchy.  See also Modern Feudalism, 2-21-15, 115 views (#28)

Football Baseball War, 5-28-16, 206 views (#5)

American football with its heavy emphasis on militaristic terms and practices, supplants baseball as America’s top sport during the Cold War.  Meanwhile demilitarized Japan adopts baseball as its top sport.  Empire militarizes the culture of a country.

Walker Work Dignity, 2-28-15, 193 views (#6)

This talks about the 500,000 people of the Wisconsin uprising who protested the taking away of public union and teacher trade union rights in a right wing takeover by Governor Walker of Wisconsin after the 2010 election.  The protest lasted four weeks long, taking over the state capital with at least 10,000 people every day protesting and crowds up to 150,000 on the four Saturdays.  Anti-union is a sign of empire or fascism.  The move was a sneak attack by the far right in an attempt to gut support for the other political party.

10 Scientific Revolution Facts, 2-28-15, 174 views (#8)

Scientific Revolution, 2-28-15, 173 views (#9)

These two combined would actually be #1 with 347 views.  These ten facts adopted from Thomas Kuhn’s book illustrate the difficulties of getting recognition for a new scientific paradigm.  In the case of Peace Economics, economists believe a science of economics is not possible.  In the Copernican Revolution, the church persecuted Galileo.  This has been my story for the last thirty years or so.

Eugene Politician, 5-14-14, 166 views (#11)

This is the political career I was following until I discovered Peace Economics.  My goals then changed to seek scientific glory instead of political glory.  Served thirteen years 1980-93 on the State Central Committee of the Democratic Party of Oregon, Congressional District Chair 1982-1987, National delegate 1984, and invited to Clinton inaugural 1993.  Starting two new fields, Peace Economics and Natural Cycle Theory, will save countless lives, with “reduced military spending” leading to less wars, more prosperity, and lower murder and crime rates.  Not to mention, better stock market opportunities, less political corruption, and better long term hurricane forecasts among other benefits of empire and cycle theory.

Grandpa Horicon Marsh, 3-1-14, 148 views (#14)

My heritage includes the grandfather who as State Senator funded the Horicon Marsh dam in 1927, third largest wildlife refuge in America.  My mother’s third cousin was President Kennedy, and my father’s third cousin founded Villanova Law School.  I’m a sixth generation descendent of the Bishop of York 1776 John Markham.  Direct descendent of Claron de Marsham, top general of William the Conqueror 1066.

10 Ferguson Jury Mistakes, 12-6-14, 146 views (#16)

This account of the murder of Michael Brown starting the Black Lives Matter movement “hands up don’t shoot” clearly explains how and why the jury made a huge mistake.  Colin Kaepernick sacrificed his NFL career to take a knee at football games.  See also Baltimore Riot, 5-2-15, 103 views (#38)

Violent Society, 7-23-16, 118 views (#23)

Military Terror Policing, 8-17-14, 108 views (#33)

This explains the militarization of America’s police forces used to quell protests in Ferguson.  Another case of the deepening of empire over time in America.

Low Military Defense, 12-5-15, 102 views (#41)

This is the key peace economics concept:  that too much too soon military spending is actually counterproductive to defending a nation, because:  the ultimate defense depends on the size of nation’s economy and excessive military spending steadily erodes that crucial economic strength.  An alternative title could be “Real Politics Re-Invented”.

Seventeen Key Findings and Claims of Peace Economics over thirty years:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, September 21), “Spectrum Peace Economics”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Spectrum-Peace-Economics,2018162207.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Misogyny Militarism Empire

When Lawrence Britt coined the “14 Characteristics of Fascism” in the Spring 2003 Issue of “Free Inquiry” magazine, these two stood out from a recent experience:

Rampant Sexism
The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Opposition to abortion is high, as is homophobia and anti-gay legislation and national policy.

Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders.

Academic Conference Story

In the seventy-third year of empire, American’s heavy military drain on manufacturing has taken its toll on the American economy.  With the steel industry under assault in the sixties, autos in the seventies, unions in the eighties, the end of the Cold War gave a peace dividend to the tech industry nineties. Then new wars and uncontrolled derivatives gave us the Great Recession.  Now America’s last premier industry, higher education, is showing strains.  In a conference in Europe, 90% of the panelists were male.  And of the four women, three were master’s students.  Then cronyism and chauvinism teamed up against the one full professor woman.  She was told not to respond to one question and also a colleague with hand raised from the start was deliberately passed over trying to ask a question.  She asked about this afterwards and was told “You got your fifteen minutes.” She was later called a cry baby.  One of the other cronies kept trying to force a young woman grad student to say something positive about Trump’s attacks of Amazon, when it was completely unwarranted.  The woman professor and her colleague were later singled out as outstanding presentations of the conference by a friendly old timer in a wrap up session.  These are examples of the persistent sexism and cronyism in today’s academic institutions.  Good new ideas are often greeted with cynicism by the cronies.

Best Countries for Women

US News and World Report ranked the best countries for women in 2014.  Five of the G7 countries were in the top 16, all five in perfect inverse order of their military spending as a percent of the economy in 2005.  Canada was 6th best for women with 1.1% military economy, followed by Germany 10th with 1.5%, United Kingdom 13th with 2.4%, France 14th with 2.6%, and last the United States 16th with 4.1%.  The Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands were in the top five, and Switzerland Australia and New Zealand were between Germany and Canada in the top 10.  The top seven were all cold or Northern countries, while Australia and New Zealand are both close to the South Pole.

Women in National Legislatures

Those same top five of the G7 countries for women had above world average women in legislature percentages except for the high military United States which had 19% in 2010, below the world average of 23%.  The two most humbled countries that had lost a war in the forties and been occupied, had the highest percentage of women in the legislature, France 39% and Germany 37%.  The three former British Empire countries had the lowest percent of women in the legislature, Britain 32%, Canada 26%, and United States 19%.  Australia was between Britain and Canada at 29%, and Britain was more like the other European countries.

Arrogance of Empire

Whether you call it empire, fascism, militarism or misogyny, these terms tend to travel together and promote sexism.  What ever it is, it tends to make things stagnant and backwards, kind of like the militarism, inequality, and scientific backwardness of the medieval and feudal ages.  Please note in the above statistics the pattern of militarism adversely impacting women.  Also note the sexism cronyism and corruption of the current American President Trump. 

First two pages were my presentation handouts at the empire conference mentioned above:

https://www.academia.edu/36620474/Good_Concepts_May_2018_Update_Ten_Pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, September 10), “Misogyny Militarism Empire”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Misogyny-Militarism-Empire,2018161729.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

 

 

Power Corrupts Absolutely

When a nation takes potent research and capital resources and diverts them to power projection, it is sacrificing achievement for power.  Put another way, the nation is trading civilian manufacturing for political services.  That is why services grow at the expense of manufacturing in an empire society.  That is not an accidental association, it is a forced zero-sum choice.  Pure achievement respects and rewards the middle class as an important part of the innovative process.  Power and control thrives on stagnation and limitation of the middle class.  When merit and what you know becomes less important than who you know, classism and more rigid hierarchy sets in and social mobility suffers.  This is the beginning of the corruption of power and empire and it is a direct result of the basic power versus achievement choice made in the first place.  So political social and economic rigidity are all logical results of the choice in favor of empire backed up by the military.

Political Corruption

When the military becomes the major force in society, allocating the resources of the military becomes the major object in politics.  Then those in charge of the allocation process become the most powerful in that society. For the United States that means those chairing or sitting on the four key, House and Senate, Armed Services and Defense Appropriation Subcommittees.  In addition the leaders of the Senate and House, who often place themselves on the four key committees, share the loot with the President. Those that represent large military factories, bases, or service providers have political advantages over others in this process.  Because military manufacturers overpay their employees about one third more than non-military similar occupations and are directly dependent on the federal budget, the incentives for political involvement are very high.  Talent, money, and motive increase the power of these communities in the political process.  Major presidential candidates usually come from these powerhouse communities.  Power is a two way street in this process, such that people coming from high military states have twice the chance of those from low military states in leadership areas like congressional leadership, presidential cabinet members, supreme court appointees, and presidents.  The corruption involved in this process drives up the local crime rates and corruption levels in local business.

Other Corruptions

Because the military budget allocation process is based more on political power than proposal merit this is another great source of corruption.  There is no way to test products against the consumer marketplace like in other industries, so there is a lot of guess work rather than science in the choices made.  The test of battle comes too infrequently to be of much use, so there is a tendency to overbuild and overspend to ensure an advantage, leading to a lot of waste.

There is too much single person and hierarchical decision making and an emphasis on short term thinking.  The flexibility of a normal marketplace is not there in the military industrial complex.  This creates a kind of complacency among many who feel they can not change the system.  This in turn leads to less healthy choices and living styles.  This drives up the cost of health care and leads to a search for alternatives like drugs and lotteries to break the tedium of being cut out of the decision-making process.  Apathy extends into the stagnancy of the political process.

War Corruptions

Those involved in the war fighting of empire come away with an exaggerated level of self importance. Soldiers have the power of life and death and tend to use it too capriciously. This is another corruption the average soldier learns to live with.  Then the war fighters bring the stress home with them as the contrast between war and peace leads to culture shock.  Humans are normally loving and friendly, not readily prepared for shock and horror.  The confusion between friends and enemies also is a form of corruption.  Too much thinking about enemies leads to alienation and corrupts the soul.  Empathy is a casualty of this process and inappropriate actions can add to the domestic crime rate at home.  Families are put under a lot of stress and sometimes break apart.  Bad habits formed overseas can be taken home with the soldiers.

Arrogance of Empire

The humility and humanity of the thirties Great Depression lasted about a generation after the World War in the United States.   Then the arrogance of empire started to concentrate more in one of the political parties than the other.  Politics in America gradually became more hostile, bitter, and divisive from the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan onward.  Reagan removed the equal time doctrine allowing right wing radio and television to emerge and creating two Americas with very different political ideas.  This evolved over time with demonization of liberals and Democrats.  Clinton was faced with Newt Gingrich as the first Republican Speaker of the House in 40 years, and Obama was faced with a Tea Party congress as America began the rightward movement that produced Trump today.  Trump challenges almost every American tradition and norm of government.  Trump has been documented in 5000 lies so far creating an alternative reality among his followers thanks to right wing alternative media and press.  He attacks anyone who dares to disagree with him thanks to his 40 million social media followers, his own personal direct media.  He has raised arrogance to unprecedented new levels with his cult of personality.

 

For further power and corruption research read the following:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_6p

 

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, August 26), “Power Corrupts Absolutely”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Power-Corrupts-Absolutely,2018161184.aspx

 

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Militarism Distorts America

The United States of America has changed a lot since World War II.  Some changes were immediate, some changes took a generation or more to sink in.  Military spending, my preferred empirical measure of empire, is the prime factor for almost all of these major changes in US society.  All of my various models show that military spending has negligible or no benefit for the economy.  It acts like lost capital investment, lost manufacturing, as the resources going into the military deplete civilian manufacturing elsewhere in America, especially depleting the Great Lakes industrial economy of the heartland.  This last part is clearly shown by regional models.  These economic changes then distort America in many ways, political, social, moral, sapping the energy and enthusiasm of all Americans as a whole.  This is what I call the “social decay of empire.”  It includes rising crime, rising income inequality, less social mobility, growing apathy, and rising anxiety and depression.  Stagnation sets in economically first, then stagnation contributes to political gridlock over time.  Fortunately empire decay is not inevitable, lowering military spending can reverse course.  But many of the social time lags can persist generationally, even while economic growth changes annually.

Similar Systems

The empire system is similar to two others:  the medieval system and the third world system.  All three systems are characterized by high military spending, high income inequality, and authoritarian power structures.  The church and ideology gain strength in such systems while science and innovation suffer.  Social mobility suffers as rigidity is favored in class based systems of power and opportunities.  Crime, poor health, drugs, gambling, red tape and escapist entertainment rise under such systems, reflecting widespread alienation and apathy.  Power and control are favored in such systems over achievement and individual merit.

Challenger Systems

Achievement is more evident than power as a prime motive of the emerging power of a challenger society.  Left alone to develop or separated by large bodies of water, societies can grow more powerful and economically strong until they are ready to sneak up on the reigning hegemonic or empire society.  Major wars of the 54 year cycle type are often between the number one economic power and the number two economic power.  Note that the economic strength is usually more important than the military strength.  Moving up the economic ladder of nations requires keeping the military low and minimal, a strategy that fits the “reduction of armies” clause in Alfred Nobel’s will as the second of three ways to earn a Nobel Peace Prize.  This also fits the biblical verse of the Sermon on the Mount of “blessed are the peacemakers for they shall inherit the earth.”  Aligning the motives of the powerful and the peacemakers is a great way to achieve world peace.

Engineering is important to an emerging society to meet its goals.  Lawyering is important to the more stable empire society, because a slow growth society will naturally have more conflicts as boundaries are defined and defended.  In the high growth society such boundary disputes look like a waste of time compared to pioneering the next great step forward.  This leads to achievement, engineering, merit, and innovation being valued over power, control, position, and legal boundaries.

Warfare Systems

War is the easiest and quickest way to take away a large number of lives.  The ultimate power is to take away another life.  Valuing your friends over your enemies leads to a certain tolerance of civilian collateral damage in the process.  This relative carelessness carries over into civilian life in an empire culture with a similar devaluing of “others” such as crime victims or other ethnic groups and genders.  Alienation and separation from others makes crime more likely, just as economic stagnation makes some people more desperate.  The fear based brain and the rational brain correspond to the power oriented and achievement oriented societies respectively.  Violence crime and corruption are fellow travelers of the fear based brain empire societies.  Doing whatever you can get away with under the law is a corruption of doing whatever is fair and best for everyone concerned.  Thus it is no accident that the highest military spending per capita US states were the leaders in the corruption of mortgages that resulted in the Great Recession of 2008.

Timing Factor

Economics is clearly the driving factor in empires, as changes in military spending change the economic growth rate in the same year.  Great Recession data even suggests the military economic change shows up quarterly.  The 1982 recession starts in July 1981 suggesting the anticipation of the fiscal year 1982 military buildup began then with congressional committee budget decisions essentially completed that month.  Then defense contractors started hiring in July 1981 draining key talent away from civilian businesses to begin the recession as those civilian businesses start to collapse.  On the other hand, crime rates dropping after the end of the Cold War in 1989-1991 suggest a five year delay between military spending changes and crime rate changes, suggesting that the formative years before age 18 are crucial to crime statistics.  Elementary teachers can spot the at risk students immediately and criminal activity can begin before age 18, so maybe a 9 or 11 year moving average of military spending maybe better correlate with the crime changes.  Likewise, crime does not move up immediately with the Iraq War bulge in US military spending.  Still peaceful Germany lowers its crime rate about 20% relative to the US rate over than time period (2003-2011 inclusive) of the nine year US war.  The end of Cold War military budget cuts were much deeper in Europe than in America dropping crime rates in Europe.  Income inequality quadrupled in three decades and social mobility was made much worse over time after the 1981 Reagan tax cut dropped the top tax rate 60% (mainly affecting the top 1%) while only cutting the middle class tax rates 15%.   The Yankee ingenuity confident America of its first two centuries seemed to dissipate after the Vietnam War while at the same time locking in the empire attitude with the two generation long Cold War.  Trump shook up the international structure politically while preserving the empire economically with a military budget increase.  Lowering the military budget after the Iraq War withdrawal in 2011 increased job growth for the last five Obama years.  Trump’s military buildup stalled that job growth in 2017.  Job growth in the last five Obama years was 25% higher than Trump’s first year, making that year 2017 the worst job growth of the last six years.

Findings and Special Claims over 33 years of military economy research:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, August 14), “Militarism Distorts America”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Militarism-Distorts-America,2018160716.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

 

Climate Theories Clarified

Today’s climate change discussion has become contentious in America.  Those that try to deny the reality of the Greenhouse Effect have so put the scientists in a box that they have been over-reacting defensively.  Without the Greenhouse Effect our world would be an ice ball.  That’s 16 degrees cooler Celsius or 29 degrees cooler Fahrenheit.  Melting the ice over Greenland or Antarctica would raise the oceans enough to endanger half the world’s population.  So the crisis is not trivial, yet not all the information is out there and the science is not complete.  Fake science from the fossil fuels industry is a real challenge, and because of this fake science, some real science is being misjudged, overlooked, or even attacked.  I dare to set the record straight at the risk of being labelled a climate denier, which I am not.

Greenhouse Effect Clarified

In 1828 when the first research discovered that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can raise temperatures, it was also discovered that each doubling of the carbon dioxide raised the temperature a fixed amount.  So there are diminishing returns on the Greenhouse Effect.  This was demonstrated by a student paper using a climate model that showed when he exceeded the professor’s instructions to go out one hundred years only, and instead went out two hundred years, he discovered that the effects leveled off in the second century.

In my Unitarian church group in Eugene Oregon USA, in the early nineties, I had a professor friend who taught Biology.  One day he stated that the environment is getting so bad that in about a decade we are going to face real disasters.  Then his wife spoke up and said he’s been saying the same thing for fifty years.  Perhaps Lovelace’s Gaia Hypothesis about the resiliency of the Earth is accurate, and the Earth adjusts to all these insults and injuries.

In a seminar, circa 1990, I was attacked viciously just for asking a question of one environmentalist academic on a panel at Notre Dame.  Late on the plane flight home I asked a scientist sitting next to me, and he answered that the science is there, but there are lots of uncertainties remaining.  The 97% of scientists claim has been around for a very long time.  Michael Mann’s attempt to eliminate the warmer period one thousand years ago is a major exception to his hockey stick claims.  Many other claims ignore their lack of current fit when this cycle theory would readily correct that inaccuracy.  Telling them that after their lecture and giving them a handout does no good.

Reuschlein’s Climate Cycle Origins

Inspired by Richard Hansen of NOAA data from 1899 to 1988 shown on C-SPAN, about the extreme nature of the 1988 drought in the USA, I videotaped and decoded that data to begin a three year effort to explain the 54 year cycle’s natural origins.  Only the 1934 and 1936 droughts met the very high temperature departure level of the 1988 drought, 54 and 52 years apart.  Each of these three years were 50% more than the 4th place year.  Using 16 data sets from “Trends 90” and other sources, the puzzle finally fell into place comparing the Northern and Southern Hemispheres temperatures.  After I published “Natural Global Warming” May 7, 1991, one of my readers next month commented that the June 16, 1991 Pinatubo volcano eruption confirmed my theory, exactly 108 years after Krakatoa in 1883.  Those are the two largest volcanic eruptions in the last 200 years.  The US Blizzard of 1996 was the biggest blizzard since the US Blizzard of 1888 just 108 years before.  These two perfect fits were every other 54 year cycle and both in the oceanic half (Southern Hemisphere hotter) of the 108 year cycle.

Weather Wealth and Wars

Extending the cycle to economics and then wars took several years.  Multi-year moving averages of different lengths clearly pointed to tops and bottoms 54 year apart in the US economic history data, as well as the US temperature data.  But the timing did not match and it took a long time to find the link.  The link finally emerged not through agriculture but through Frederick Taylor is the pioneer in this area with 1890s railway building studies.  Then the relative economic success of temperate zone versus tropical economies, stock market studies showing better performance in cold months and long term US analysis showing weaker economic growth in long term warming periods all confirm the Taylor findings in a wider set of areas.  Lastly, the major wars had a periodicity to them.  They consistently occur after major economic booms are ending, when wealth and differences among nations are at a peak.  They also occur in major cold years at the end of cooling streaks.  Knowing when wars tend to occur reduces the uncertainty that leads to military over-preparation, which is costly to society.  Good defense planning will reduce the military whenever war is less likely.  Nicolai Kondratieff in 1926 in Russia began the work on long cycles in economics.  See the link attached for my detailed power-point as presented in Toronto at the World Conference on Sociology to a beaming audience of proud Russians and others.

Presentation Combining the Three Kondratieff Waves, Natural, Economic, Wars:

https://www.academia.edu/37064850/Weather_Wealth_Wars_54_Year_Cycle_7-21-18_2p

List of 56 major events 2.5% error (1.32 years average error) on 54 years cycle time:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yrCycle_3p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, July 27), “Climate Theories Clarified”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Climate-Theories-Clarified-USA,2018160104.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

How Right Wing Changed USA

Perhaps it began with McCarthyism, Ayn Rand, and the John Birch Society reaction against Communism, the New Deal, and the Great Society.  Of course it began with the birth of Empire America after World War Two.  But I agree with Cedrick Smith’s book “Who Stole the American Dream” that the Powell memo of 1971 (and the Nixon administration) instituted and planted the seeds of reaction to the Civil Rights movement and the peace movement against the Vietnam War.  The birth of monetarism economics eclipsing Keynesianism is also an important part of the story.  The first step was the rise of right wing institutes in the seventies like ALEC, CATO, and Heritage to rationalize the domination of the ruling class over the middle class.  This and the socioeconomic nature of a high military spending society pushed America into more of a medieval and Third World society, away from democracy and towards dictatorship.  Of course the 1947 National Security Act begins the empire society gradually leading to the rise of Ronald Reagan.  But the crucial step in this long transformation is the 1981 Reagan tax cut.  This 60% cut in the top income tax rate directly stops social mobility, freezing the middle class out of future income gains and locking in ever increasing income inequality and the current lack of social mobility.  America has traded places with Europe becoming a class based society abandoning the Horatio Alger tradition.  The dominoes of empire just keep falling into place with the rise of the Newt Gingrich Republican congress of 1995.  The last time the congress produced a regular budget with 12 appropriations bills was 1994.  Now spending is passed in omnibus bills for short periods of time less than a year, so leadership controlled that the dysfunctional congress is increasingly over time more dictatorial and less democratic.  Reagan’s repeal in 1987 of the “equal time” provisions for political discourse in the mass media lead directly to right wing radio like Rush Limbaugh and right wing television like Fox News in 1996.  Clinton’s 1999 repeal of the 1938 Glass-Steagall bill separating banking from investment banking leads directly to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 nine years later with a tenfold increase in derivatives without government oversight.  Frank Luntz, Newt Gingrich, and twelve leading House and Senate Republicans met to block all Obama legislation, including emergency economic bailouts while the economy was losing 750,000 jobs per month, in a decision reached 1-20-09 the night of Obama’s inauguration.  Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader implemented that policy then, and later in blocked Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland immediately one hour after the death of Anthony Scalia February 13, 2018.  Such extremism was later matched by Trump’s attempted appeal of everything Obama, including health care.  Clearly there has been an unbelievable escalation of obstructionism since 1971.  Jimmy Carter and a Princeton study have recognized this rise of oligarchy at the expense of democracy.  The activist reactionary Supreme Court, conservative since 1972, has gone radical right since choosing a president in the Bush v Gore case of December 12, 2000.  It repealed election finance laws in Citizens United 2010, and destroyed a forty year precedent in labor relations in 2018 and refused to reverse an absurd reapportionment in Wisconsin this year.

Reuschlein’s Theory of Empire

There is no greater power than the power to take one’s life away.  Hence military power represents a widescale application of such power.  Presidents with wars attached to them tend to be our highest ranked presidents, hence winning war is usually rewarded handsomely on the president’s biography and historical review. Wars are very expensive, hence great political power is exerted doling out the money.  High military spending states dominate the leadership in congress, the cabinet, and the presidency.  Judging by the Roman Empire and modern experience, there is a strong tendency to become less democratic and more autocratic the longer an empire exists.  In Rome the movement was from republic to emperor.  In America the movement of power is from congress to the executive, and in congress from committees to leadership.  Politics moves from flexible to rigid.  Too many people view these trends as inevitable, when in fact levels of military funding can be shown over and over again as the prime forcing agent in things like deindustrialization, low economic growth, inequality, crime, rigidity in polirics, poor health outcomes, and lack of social mobility.  Spiritual decay is usually a result, not a cause, of empire decline.  Complacency is also a result, not a cause of decline.  Corruption increases in high military spending states, hence the worst mortgage abuses leading up to the Great Recession were in high military spending states like California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Connecticut.

Conclusions

The total victory concept of the world wars gradually over time became embedded by America’s most military oriented political party.  Among low information voters this party stood for many American values that it did not follow.  Among the endless hypocrisies and lies were notions of support for the constitution, small business, and local government.  The term fake news was invented to justify contradictions that were in fact lies.  More government and more debt were justified by more lies.  Lack of job creation in 2017 compared to the last six years before was justified by ever lowering unemployment rates as part of a long trend started by a predecessor.  Hoover tariff strategy that gave us the Great Depression were championed as good bargaining.  Draining the swamp was shown to be a hollow slogan as the president made deals to benefit himself and his family at the expense of foreign policy, and his cabinet followed his own corrupt lead.  Putin criticism was put off limits to maintain his ties to his benefactor.  American institutions like the press, FBI and justice were disregarded when inconvenient or worse, vilified.

The rise of Trump represents the lack of all compromise with the left and the lack of any pretense about what motivates the new media created right wing mentality.  A nation of laws has been replaced with a cult of personality with endless attacks on all enemies.  Trump admires dictators and belittles democracies, just like an emperor.

How the principles of empire affect us all:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, July 8), “How Right Wing Changed USA”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/How-Right-Wing-Changed-USA,2018159439.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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