Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the tag “politics”

More Than Money and Jobs


From the US Presidency to the media to academia Military Keynesianism is strong and alive even today.  The establishment, even in a recent large conference in Berlin on military budget reductions, consistently looks at military spending as either money or jobs.  Nobody seems to understand that military spending is much more than that, it is lost capital investment and lost manufacturing and lost manufacturing productivity.  This lost economic growth opportunity is far more costly to society than any other aspect of military spending and is rarely understood or researched at all.  This “changes everything”, to recognize the economic stagnation and socio-economic decline of empire and manufacturing that directly results internally with high levels of military spending, indeed, at any level of military spending.  This is what I mean by the “Peace Economics” difference, a term I invented in 1986 and has been stolen and misused by the Italians and Code Pink among many others.  Inevitably, when others use the term, they mean money and jobs only, not the engines of economic growth in the terms manufacturing, investment, and productivity.  There is a widespread false equivalency assumed between the military economy and the manufacturing economy.  The fact that one is economically a dead end and the other leads to economic progress is lost on almost everyone, including almost all peace studies people.

Peace Movement Compromised

Forty-five years ago, in the middle of the 1980s decade, I picked up a copy of the Peace Resource Handbook.  That source listed 5000 peace organizations located in the fifty United States.  In the eleven former Confederate States the number of peace organizations is unusually low.  Everywhere else, the number of peace organizations per capita by state is 90% correlated with the military spending per capita in that state.  Hence the peace movement is strongest in California and Massachusetts.  Hence the peace movement is compromised by its close association with the high military spending states.  Military Keynesianism thrives under such circumstances, the false notion that military spending is just money and jobs.  This interpretation does not recognize the lost opportunity cost that is the essential recognition of Peace Economics.  I have witnessed firsthand many times how the presence or absence of military spending colors a local community.  Therefore I worry about the compromise entailed in locating the peace and justice (PJSA) headquarters in Georgetown University, the number one source of CIA and Foreign Service students among all colleges.  Memories include the “Gays in the Military” phone saturation protest in DC on Clinton inauguration day 1993 and driving through Utah listening to the glories of the aircraft carrier on a long radio broadcast.

Evidence of Stubborn Resistance

While the field of peace studies barely existed prior to 1970, it grew steadily after the Vietnam War.  In January 1986 I visited the offices of the Progressive Magazine and discussed my research with someone who called himself Matt Centrowitz, who eventually threw me out of the office because I did not read the New York Times and had not yet figured out the paradox of how military spending can lead to local economic growth even while it inhibits national economic growth.  It must have been Matt Rothschild, who worked at the Progressive since circa 1983 and became editor from about 1990 to 2014.

In the Fall (October) of 1987 as I was teaching my second course of Peace Economics at the University of Oregon, I met Seymour Melman, the leading author of economics of peace books like Pentagon Capitalism.  I presented my Peace Economics in a conference held at Oregon State University in Corvallis while Melman was the keynoter.  There he was answering questions when he got one, I knew the answer to but was sure he didn’t.  So I answered explaining why the economics of military spending had not really caught on in the peace movement.  That was because peace was in two fields at the time, the anti-nuke environmentalists and the anti-interventionists of the human rights field.  Neither main group was interested in economics.

Next, I met Alexander Cockburn who boasted he had a socialist column in the Wall Street Journal.  I gave him a copy of my Peace Economics (1986) book explaining how military spending hurt the economy, but the next month he wrote a column reaffirming the Military Keynesian economic orthodoxy.

In 1990 at a Eugene Oregon conference I explained the paradox of how military spending can be non-productive and yet defense contractors contribute to the calculation of manufacturing productivity.  The answer is that the weapons contractors are suppliers to the military machine, hence they are heavy machinery suppliers like those who create the assembly line machinery in a normal factory.  Hence the military “factory” is light manufacturing and takes inputs from the heavy manufacturing weapons industry.

Modern Economists

Paul Krugman, Nobel Economics Laureate and New York Times columnist still clings in his books to the idea that World War II brought the US out of the Great Depression.  He does not recognize that the war bonding deficit and massive consumer sacrifice really brought us out of the Depression despite the war spending drag on the economy, which clearly shows up when you correlate the annual economic growth rates with the net military spending.  Net military spending is the difference between the federal deficit and military spending, which largely offset each other during the war years.  From 1941-48 the NET military spending explains the economic growth rate with 97% accuracy.

Joseph Stiglitz, Bill Clinton’s economist, comes closest to the most accurate military spending perspective, almost a Peace Economist.  But he fears the military industrial complex, so he hints around in British newspapers and one page in his book Three Trillion Dollar War.  I’ve seen him on TV explaining World War II in Peace Economics like terms, preferring to hint rather than state things straight out.

Larry Summers, Obama’s economist, lambasted the great Seymour Melman when he spoke at MIT.  He is an old-fashioned Military Keynesian.  His belief in military economics lead Obama astray when he tripled the 30,000 troops in Afghanistan to 90,000 even as he withdrew from Iraq.  This kept military spending high and delayed the recovery from the Great Recession until the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq.


When the last three Democratic Presidents start military buildups in their last year in office leading to three Republican wins in the presidency, clearly the Military Keynesians are in charge, believing in the military economy despite the negative national economic growth and manufacturing recessions produced.  Despite the clear empirical record, military Keynesianism rules the day, thanks to the murkiness of social science thinking.  While the basics were nailed down in 1986, many nuances have added to the understanding in recent decades and especially since my 2009 doctorate.

Definitive 64-year proof of Peace Economics in US economic history:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, January 29), “More Than Money and Jobs” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019207808.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.

Contact:  Info:

Recession Elects Trump 2016


Trump was elected by a manufacturing recession that impacted the so-called “Blue Wall” of the upper Midwest manufacturing states.  This recession was a result of the military buildup in Obama’s last year sharply reversing the military budget cuts of the 2012-2015 period.  Because military and manufacturing are opposites in economic growth and jobs and regional impact this happened.  Because Obama Clinton and Carter all believed in military Keynesianism, all three mistakenly began military buildups in their last years thinking that could help the Democratic ticket, but instead leading to recessions in the election year that elected three Republicans.  Ohio Michigan Wisconsin and Indiana and are four of the top five manufacturing states per capita with Pennsylvania not far behind those four.  Correlation on this (details below), R=-.94 (2012-2016).

Election 2020

The next election is already showing the coming manufacturing recession from Trump’s trade wars, as GM shuts down Cruz production in Youngstown Ohio and Trump greatly accelerated the small Obama military buildup by about $100 billion dollars.  The temporary economic relief due to the 2018 tax cuts has been more than offset by these events.  The outsider benefit to Trump of these events in 2016 will hurt Trump now that he is the insider and will be held responsible for the manufacturing recession in the upper Midwest states.  Trump could even lose Ohio, the most manufacturing oriented of the eight traditional largest states.

Year    Millions         Change          Billions $

Sept    Mfg Jobs       In Jobs          Military Change

2009   11.591

2010   11.563            -.028

2011   11.769            .206

2012   11.954            .185                -46.55

2013   12.056            .102                -25.09

2014   12.226             .170                -29.79             R= -.94 (2012-2016)

2015   12.350            .124                -13.89

2016   12.344            -.006               +15.17

Military Buildup Manufacture Recession Elects Trump

2017   12.467            .123

2018   12.733            .266    Tax Cut Stimulus Stops in January 2019

2019   12.850            .117    first 4 months    .093            Tariffs     last 8 months   .024

Manufacturing Jobs In Recent Years

Midwest and the Military full story:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, October 10), “Recession Elects Trump 2016” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: 2016,2019195749.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,




Logic of the Peace Economy

Press Conference on the Nobel Peace Prize

Noon CDT on Friday October 11th, 2019.

Sequoya Library, 4340 Tokay Blvd Madison, WI 53711



Carefully restructuring Keynes (1936) with the military economy findings of Ruth Sivard (1981) and Reuschlein (1986) and the cyclical findings of Nicolai Kondratiev (1926) and Clement Juglar (1858) leads to a new scientific and accurate model of macroeconomics, including a precision model of 77 years in the United States economy.  That constitutes a finding that military spending is lost capital investment to any nation’s economy.  That finding forces a re-examination of how best to defend the nation state.  A 2% annual loss of economic growth (or capital investment) over a 36-year period can cut a nation’s economy in half.  Thus in about a third of a century, excessive military spending can severely weaken a nation.  This demands a reevaluation of national strategy, to keep a skeletal amount of military spending during long periods of peace between major wars.  This alone represents a giant step towards world peace, because the world will have less war damage when it has lower military spending, and less temptation to engage in minor wars when the military option is recognized for its true cost.  Less military means less domestic military economy pressure to justify higher levels of the military budget by use or to meet political power play demands; i.e. less military, less wars, less tension, less political corruption.

Other Major Spinoffs of the Military Economy

Cutting military spending has significant long-term national security benefits, but also avoids a lot of evils of empire.  Many similarities exist among dictatorships, Third World countries, Medievalism, Fascism, and Empire.  Thus many evil ramifications result from militarism and particularly measured by the high level of military spending.  For example, Rome started out as a Republic and ended up a dictatorship, especially as the military was professionalized becoming increasing expensive over time.  America is undergoing a similar pattern, as the Republic and congress is increasingly dominated by the foreign policy of the military presidency.  Sports have become more militarized as Romans took to watching gladiators and Americans have taken to American football with its heavy militaristic parallels throughout the game and its heavy physical toll on the players.  Crime and corruption are strongest in the strongholds of militarism and the military economy domestically and internationally compared to other advanced democracies.  Power and control become dominant values instead of the value of achievement.  Social mobility dies out as the stagnation of wage growth becomes the norm in the slow growth economy.  Whether it is Hollywood, the media, or the political structure, more and more positions seem more inherited than earned.  Obesity, mental health, longevity, teenage births and infant mortality all suffer as anxiety steadily increases over time.

Long Cycle Dominates Planet

The Kondratiev Wave is essential to the long-term precision United States economic model of 77 years.  That model uses a 54-year cycle modelled by a sine wave with an amplitude of 3% of the economy, further confirmed by the 8-10 year Juglar cycle found seven times in the model.  Further the 160-year global temperature show a 55-year moving average has three straight lines before 1910, from 1910 to 1973, and after 1973.  Economic growth shrinks with 27-year heat waves and increases with 27-year cool waves and wars peak at the end of the growth cycle as national economic disparities and wealth have maximized.  The hot cycle ends with major droughts and the (relative) cool cycle begins with major floods.  Hurricanes follow the cycle but on a regional basis, best focused on major cities.  Linear forecasts based on the Greenhouse Effect would be greatly improved by recognizing this cycle.

Listing of 17 major Peace Economics findings:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, October 10), “Logic of the Peace Economy” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019195272.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (more than double pace of last year: 127 Strong Web Looks in 12 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 11th, 2019.



Academia Paper Views Ranked

Overall These 80 listed papers included some power-points, collections, and chapters.  The first one is an overall findings summary, followed by the leading two in downloads, weather cycle, and then followed in order by greatest number of viewings.  One sentence introductions are given above each link.

Paper 1 gives the 17 great findings that led to all the other new material (61 views):

Paper 2 shows the fifty states economic and political power of the military industrial complex (188 views):

Paper 3 shows the evolution of Gary Gygax and wargames into D&D and Reuschlein War Theory (254 views):

History of Gary Gygax and War Economy, May June 2017, 8 p.(136 downloads-#2)

Paper 4 shows new climate theory and cycle evidence (311 views):

Paper 5 shows 13 correlations that define my military, empire, and cycle research (356 views):

Paper 6 shows how militarized our police forces have become and economic racial impact (248 views):

Paper 7 shows how empire economic and politics evolve over time (170 views).

Paper 8 shows how a 55 year moving average defines the temperature chart (168 views).

Paper 9 shows wargame connections between Reuschlein & Gygax, the D&D inventor (157 views).

Paper 10 shows the close connection between murder and military rates nationally (142 views).

Paper 11 shows the chart and print version of my 40 minute video on Peace Economics (139 views).

Paper 12 shows 56 numerical examples of the 54 year cycle (137 views):

Paper 13 shows the 7-20-13 ppt used at the World Future Society (124 views):

Paper 14shows the Political Economy listing in the SAGE Encyclopedia of War (120 views):

Paper 15 shows my entire 2009 doctoral dissertation (112 Views):

Paper 16 shows my award winning letter to a Chicago area peace group (109 views):

Paper 17 shows partial ppt for each of my main focal points (96v):

Paper 18 shows the ppt presentation of my science of economics model in Toronto (95v):

Paper 19 shows the 11 press releases on the military economy issue (94v):

Paper 20 shows the pathway to the Nobel Prize and follows evidence of their interest (93v):

Paper 21 shows the cultural connection between war empire and sports violence (88v):

Paper 22 shows the pattern of social decay that springs from military empire (85v):

Paper 23 shows synopsis and related info about a Peace Economics class (82v):

Paper 24 shows ppt and related material that leads to my main points (77v):

Paper 25 shows the nine fields that compose my interdisciplinary background (71v):

Paper 26 shows the key documentary pages of the original Peace Economics book (66v):

Paper 27 shows my number one viewed press release (64v):

Paper 28 shows the contrast between my theory and that of most peace studies (62v):

Paper 29 shows my second paper at Telos Institute (61v):

Paper 30 shows several of the best press releases on the topic of Empire (60v).

Paper 31 is very popular overseas for some reason (58v):

Paper 32 shows how Southern Business Professors can be won over to Peace Economics (58v):

Paper 33 from the unpublished work in progress book (57v):

Paper 34 from 4 years of Sunday Afternoons with “Teachings of Jesus” bibles and concordances (55v).

Paper 35 summary papers about murder crime and violence in an empire society (53v):

Paper 36 how military states candidates dominate America (53v).

Paper 37 hundred year details of how precision peace economics plays out (50v).

Paper 38 from SAGE Encyclopedia of War and recommended by academic with 1 million views (47v):

Paper 39 Reuschlein curve and other ways to manage military budget with peace economics (45v):

Paper 40 both key theories in one place (45v):

Paper 41 puts the “con” in conservative, how Dems were robbed two elections in a row (45v).

Paper 42 press releases that give technical support to peace economics (44v):

Paper 43 how a militarized culture demands militarized sports (43v).

Paper 44 civilizations rise and fall with long term temperature changes (42v).

Paper 45 collected works on the path to the peace prize (40v):

Paper 46 describes key evidence about peace economics (40v).

Paper 47 why military hated Kennedy enough to kill him (39v).

Paper 48 collection of press releases on the topic (39v).

Paper 49 even interest rates are proportional to military spending in the late nineties (39v).

Paper 50 economists have given up on the search for a science (38v).

Paper 51 semester long three credit class synopsis plus (38v).

Paper 52 how the Peace Prize could lead to Physics and Economics Prizes, first ever threesome (37v).

Paper 53 lyrics lead the way (37v).

Paper 54 featured speaker at 70th anniversary (35v).

Paper 55 political economic cycle reasons for war (33v).

Paper 56 first domino military economics leads to many social ills of empire (32v).

Paper 57 just the facts for those who erroneously think war brought us out of Depression (31v).

Paper 58 general peace economics theory (31v).

Paper 59 detailed analysis of older responses to my press release and other work (30v).

Paper 60 making peace economics a degree program (29v).

Paper 61 there’s more to global warming than just greenhouse effect (28v).

Paper 62 cold blooded murder is given new meaning (28v).

Paper 63 fees may be subject to prizes won (27v).

Paper 64 Lucy Webster (famous world federalist) was an early fan and editor of this (25v):

Paper 65 number phobia is rampant (90%) in the world (22v).

Paper 66 Manufacturing is to the Midwest as military and financial is to the coastal states (20v).

Paper 67 the second most important work after Peace Economics 1986 was in 1991 (18v).

Paper 68 How I followed the rush by the Nobel Committee to follow me (18v).

Paper 69 How three different cycles become one (18v):

Paper 70 Evaporation in unequal over land and ocean, and energy must be balanced in a cycle (16v).

Paper 71 military is unhealthy for even the peacetime people (16v).

Paper 72 early years of this press release format (16v).

Paper 73 “othering” leads to wars and leads to killing those who are black (11v).

Paper 74 Flyover country once lead the way to American prosperity (11v).

Paper 75 climate change leads to economic change, heat slows us all down (10v).

Paper 76 the states respond politically to the military budget (8v). 

Paper 77 “hands up don’t shoot” verified by prosecutor on December 4th radio cast (8v).

Paper 78 early evaluation of audience interests (8v).

Paper 79 normal 20 year cooling period reduced to 15 years by global warming (8v).

Paper 80 Hurricane Harvey leads the burst of super-hurricanes that all follow cycle pattern (0v).

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 30), “Academia Paper Views Ranked” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019195013.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 125 Strong Web Looks in 12 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.




Summer 2019 Leading Views

Overall These 2016-2017 older Press Releases long dropped from the current 50 list were the most in demand this summer from July 9 to September 20.  Here are summaries of the top 11 older releases for these 73 days.  4470 views total non-current added views to 180 older releases.

Texas Hurricane “Harvey”  8-27-17 (90 views)

Harvey, 56 years after Carla in 1961 is only two years long from a perfect 54 year cycle, these are the most recent two category four hurricanes to land on Texas.  Harvey threatens to stay on the coast for a week and dump 52 inches of rain over Houston, double prior records, much more devastating, as water is usually more devastating in a hurricane than wind.  This could be worse than Katrina or Sandy in overall impact.  This rainfall exceeded the Hugo levels in 1989 in North Carolina, where 12 inches of rain matches the monthly rainfall total of September 1934 in North Carolina, the same month 55 years before.

Deep Politics of Iraq War 6-4-16 (75 views)

In danger of proving that all weapons of mass destruction had been eliminated, Operation Desert Fox was launched in December 1998.  When Saddam retaliated by kicking the inspectors out of Iraq, the US preserved the illusion that some weapons of mass destruction remained keeping Hussein in his box of sanctions.

Fraud in the Iraq War of 2003, The False War Resolution of October 2002 The war resolution requires the president to certify two things before launching a war.  One was there was a threat of weapons of mass destruction, and two that there was a connection to the attacks on September 11, 2001.  The Downing Street Memos show than Tony Blair and George Bush agreed to invade Iraq in April 2002.  Bombing doubled the rate in May 2002.  In August, Cheney started talking about nuclear weapons, the one thing inspectors agreed had been 100% eliminated in 1998.

Football Baseball and War 5-28-16 (65 views)

World War II changed everything.  Japan was forced to demilitarize, adopting a constitution against war.  They adopted baseball as their number one sport.  In 2015 on our trip to Japan that year, we saw from the train numerous fields of baseball players practicing all over Japan.  In the sixties, with glorification of World War II everywhere in the culture, America began to prefer football over baseball as the new number one sport.  Now, traveling in America, kids practicing football can be seen all over.

NFL Football Mimics War 10 reasons are cited in the press release, even comparing Roman Gladiators with NFL Football Players.

Teaching Peace Economics  9-4-17 (61 views)

Living with Thomas Kuhn’s Insights When Thomas Kuhn wrote “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” he gave me the guideposts to understanding the resistance of those in the world around me when I came out with my first strong findings in my short book “Peace Economics” in 1986.

Resistance to New Ideas I have been amazed at the insularity of many forums at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.  Your status at the University is much more important than your ideas for most of them.  This stands in sharp contrast to places like Oxford or Cambridge where independent scholars are welcome and appreciated at their numerous forums.

Thirty Year Class Warfare 10-18-16 (58 views)

Who knew when they voted for Ronald Reagan that they would be voting for thirty years of class warfare?  Ronald Reagan’s budget director David Stockman wrote a tell all book explaining that the three year fazed in tax cut was a “Trojan Horse” for bringing the top tax rate on the rich down from 70% to 28%.  We now know the top 1% have quadrupled their income and stifled the middle class thanks to Reagan policies.

SAGE Military Keynesianism shows that the problem with military spending is that it overpays and gets the best and brightest scientists and engineers and then does not give a product back into the economic mainstream.  Military resources deplete investment capital reducing the economic growth rate.

Living History of the CIA 4-16-16 (56 views)

Gary Webb came to Madison on his book tour after his “Dark Alliance” series in the San Jose Mercury News.  I asked why the press was so hard on him, and he responded that the CIA had a program called Operation Mockingbird to co-opt the press.  He further stated that the Church Committee of the seventies had documented 400 press connections to the CIA.  When I became a leading member of Madison’s anti-war group, I actively cross listed numerous articles by national and local peace list-serves.  It was quite an education, as my favorite pieces were about the lobby groups driving the whole war process, JINSA, CSP, and especially PNAC, Project for a New American Century.  All the big political names were in these groups.

Nobel Peace Year Highlights 10-1-17 (55 views)

Strange pattern on my website might indicate Nobel is double checking me out right now, Saturday afternoon 9-23-17 about 2pm Oslo time, and Monday evening 9-25-17 between 8pm and midnight, someone(s) read all 24 press releases since last Christmas.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee reportedly chooses in August according to Jim Murphy, announces October 6 Friday.  Since both days are the same 24 in a row, it’s hard to imagine that as anything but a double check by two of the five Norwegian politicians that make the decision. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday 6 October, 11:00 a.m. Norway time (4am Madison time CDT).

Letter to Nobel Committee 10-5-16 (51 views)

The precision findings that demand a “reduction of armies” for national survival are these two:

Benefits of Awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Robert Reuschlein

The million-dollar prize and publicity would make it possible to introduce the world to a new way of thinking about military spending, the economy, and global warming.  With the staff to research new stock market strategies and national strategies to finally, force politicians to recognize the huge drawbacks to keeping military spending excessively high for long periods, especially in peacetime but also in wartime.

CNN Top Stories: All Empire 1-2-16 (51 views)

Rise of Islamic State when world empire America invaded Saddam Hussein’s Iraq there was no Al Qaeda in Iraq, but in the ensuing chaos their quickly arose a chapter of Al Qaeda that sought to promote war between the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam.  Gay Marriage Supreme Court Decision The main theory of empire from right wing sources is that moral decay has led to the current state of America. Tolerating gay marriage is a sign of the moral decay of America.  Paris Terror Assaults Because of colonial involvement of France and Britain in the Middle East, decades of chickens coming home to roost.  Mass Shootings of four or more individuals totaled 355 late in the year. High levels of military spending as an indicator of empire shows that crime is a function of empire.  Cops Killing Unarmed Blacks The nature of our police forces have changed over the decades to include tactics heretofore reserved for our overseas forces.

Game Master Gygax History 5-14-17 (50 views)

Stretching the Imagination  The Role Playing Games Industry (Dungeons and Dragons) emerged from war gaming and the discipline and imagination of Gary Gygax (1938-2008) of Lake Geneva Wisconsin.  In 1966, Gygax founded the International Federation of Wargaming (IFW) 1967-1973 and encouraged fellow legend of wargaming Robert Reuschlein to join that group that became the largest wargaming group of its time. Gary Gygax developed the first successful wargaming convention in 1968, GenCon, starting with 100 wargamers, now featuring 50,000 attendees in Indianapolis each year.  Gary developed “Dungeons and Dragons” in 1974.

War Decision Mechanisms 9-9-16 (50 views)

Major War Cycle, 54 Years Long, Major Wars Happen in Cold Years (on 54 year cycle)

Low Level Military Defense (keeps economy stronger longer)

National Security State Born in a sociology class on power structure.  I compared Secretaries of State and Defense since World War Two in 1985 and the pattern continues today.  State tends to be hawkish and Defense tends to be dovish.  This is the reverse of most public opinion.  CIA Presidents: Obama Clinton Bush Sr. War and Occupy Economics (40% economic reduction under occupation)

The Worthlessness of War (few innovations, huge capital waste)   

The Complete Texts of These 11 Press Releases:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 23), “Summer 2019 Leading Views” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019194815.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 121 Strong Web Looks in 11.7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Corrupt Military Spending

Corruptions of Empire

Everybody wants to be number one, and countries are no exception to that rule.  Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely and those who pursue dominance with wars and military spending are certainly no exception to this rule either.  But what is the mechanism and what is the process that leads to these outcomes?

Military spending may just be an indicator some would think, but it is a cause, because it embodies the taking away from normal economic pursuits critical resources that are instead either left dormant or used to inflict violence and destruction.  Slowing the economy increases social stress.  Allowing talent from throughout the world to come to a dominant power can leave the indigenous population frustrated and left out and can undermine wage increases.

Power and Control

Military force can be an effective means of coercion against those who would prefer those means, but can be quite ineffective against those who are defending their homeland thousands of miles away from the homeland of the foreign troops.  Still, the application of military power is addictive to those who use it.  Control from the top down is usually alienated from and less effective than building loyalty from the bottom up.  A paid professional army from outside is never more motivated than an indigenous home army.  The farther away the lines of supply are, the greater the opportunity for corruption along the way.

Political Corruption

Those that control the allocation of military funds can be both powerful and corrupted by their power.  They can allocate those funds to themselves or to gain influence over others.  In the USA case this means members of defense appropriations and armed services committees usually dominate other members of congress, and committee chairs are the next higher level of power followed by the leaders of the political party in power and especially the president. That military spending is substantial and easily allocated to different companies and regions favored by these power positions gives this part of the federal budget unusually high levels of clout.

Social Corruption

Learning to kill others and then doing it is a corrupting and stressful force on those individuals.  Many social ills befall those who come home from wars.  Suicide and divorce are notable, but the fact that homicide and crime rates are proportional to military economy rates among countries is further proof of the domestic harm that comes to societies high in military spending.  There are three main causes of this relationship.  The direct connection is that training makes killing easier to resort to.  Secondly, considering other people as enemies leads to many kinds of discrimination when people are different racially, ethnically, by religion, by sex, by politics, by sexual orientation or even mental disposition.  Training to act quickly further can lead to accidents.  Thirdly, economic stagnation caused by taking resources away from goods producing industries and adding them to military purposes instead puts great strains on the civilian workforce and economy.  Frustrated people can then turn to crime, drugs, lotteries, suicide, and other diversions to reduce the pressure they feel under.  Powerless people can find others they consider lower on the totem pole to exert some power over.  Narrow hierarchies can exaggerate these problematic behaviors, so income inequality also separates and alienates people from each other.

Corruption and Diversionary Behaviors

The following chart shows the many diversionary tendencies of dominant empire societies versus emerging or mature growing societies.

A Study in Contrasts

High Military Low Military
Empire Challenger
Win/Lose Win/Win
Necessities At Risk Surplus At Risk
Feudalism Ingenuity
Stagnant Growth
Power Achievement
Sideways Forward
Lawyers Engineers
Boredom Excitement
Football Baseball
The Bomb Home
High Crime Low Crime
Unforgiving Forgiving
Service Sector Manufacturing Sector
Debt Savings
Imports Exports
Unemployment Full Employment
Two Income Families One Income Families
Weak Unions Strong Unions
Control Opportunity

Detailed Exploration of the Chart Above:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 9), “Corrupt Military Spending” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019194492.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 112 Strong Web Looks in 11+ months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Fascism Climate Emergency

Crisis of the Times

Strongmen are rising all over the world, as democracy retreats, just as the climate crisis emerges with ferocity.

First California had record fires, then the Canadian prairies caught fire giving a hazy sky over the Midwest where I live, then Siberia, then the Amazon fires started.  Those last fires were manmade, as a climate denier like America’s Trump took power in Brazil.  That event encouraged the farmers to reclaim farmland from the forest.  Just like that fascism creates a climate emergency.  This means more than ever mankind needs to recognize my work creating accurate models of economics and the 54-year climate cycle that are each an order of magnitude better than the existing state of each art.  In fact, economists do not even believe a science of economics is even possible.  But a systems thinking engineer can do what the economists could not do.  With Greenland melting ten years ahead of schedule, clearly the climate crisis today is what fascism in Europe and Japan was 80 years ago, something that requires all of civilization to give it their best effort.  And each danger is better met with the strength that comes from low military spending strong economies unhindered by the restrictions of fascism, crime, social inequality, poor health, and corruption that spring from excessive militarism.

United States Turning Point

The United States of America faces an existential crisis point in the summer of the 50th anniversary of the moon-landing and the seventy-fifth anniversary of the D-Day invasion to recapture France from the Nazis.  A similar national effort is now needed to face the crisis of our times brought about by the Greenhouse effect.  Corrupt political forces like those of the Weimar Republic in Germany in the twenties have seized control of the Senate and Presidency of the largest economy in North America.

What America Needs

America needs a Truth and Reconciliation Commission for its age of empire like the one used in South Africa for the necessary healing to take place after Apartheid.  The excesses of militarism should not be papered over, whitewashed, and swept under the carpet, rather they should be faced up to squarely.  The world recognizes this much better than anyone in the United States can even dream about.  There are many voices that are ignored by the establishment and only tinkered with, poked and prodded, by the mainstream press.  The Church Commission of the seventies was a good place to start, too soon forgotten.

Showings Needed

Pulling back from the military brink comes easy to those who realize excessive militarism can poison the socioeconomic system and the future belongs to the low military spending nations.  Knowing the most likely times for major wars to occur and why they do so can help keep a nation from premature militarism or excessive defense measures during times of expected peace.  Showing that high military spending can lead to militaristic politics, high crime, and poor national health is an important part of the whole picture.  We can all spiral up together or we can spiral down together.

First Great Climate Cycle Presentation Inspired by Hurricane Sandy In 2012:

Accurate Economics Model That Replaces Outdated Military Keynesianism In 2014:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 27), “Fascism Climate Emergency” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019194224.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 101 Strong Web Looks in 11 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Important to Climate Change


I go to events where people explain their individual global warming projections as they see the greenhouse effect theory affects the global temperature over time.  They always project based on the average rate of increase straight line.  This always gives an inaccurate fit in the current period, usually indicating a curve rising much faster than it is rising during the current period.  I then go to them after the lecture and explain to them that we are in a special short-term situation where the growth of temperature is less than the projected average growth.  I explain the cycle and give them a graph showing how accurate the cycle is.  Then they ignore me.  Sometimes I see them go to my websites and read up on my work, but they still revert to form and ignore me after giving it a lot of thought.  They stay trapped in their pre-existing frame of mind.  This is unfortunate.  Ignoring my work only leads to inaccuracies and continued naïve planning for the unique situations faced by each nation, each region, each city.  Including the 54-year cycle and recognizing the application of the cycle makes possible much more accurate long-term forecasts of the many major natural, economic, and political events of our times.  This will save money and lives.  Some say that history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.  That is a half-truth, because many situations do approximately repeat again on cycle time.  Imagine what a confused world we would live in if we could not count on the sunrise and the sunset or the coming and going of the seasons.  Someday the whole world will look at the events of the 54-year cycle as matter of fact as day and night and winter and summer.  That day will come much sooner if I win a major prize like the Nobel, Pulitzer, or MacArthur, or one of my books became a bestseller.

Natural Events

Evaporation of water happens to be the number use of solar radiation hitting the Earth.  Evaporation happens more over oceans than over land because of the lower amount of water over land.  This leaves more radiation for warming the surface over land than over water.  An estimated three times as much warming occurs initially over land compared to water.  But as land warms faster, eventually the ocean reacts to bring the whole Earth back into energy balance.  Because of varying geography over the planet, these balancing forces like rain, wind belts, ocean currents and mountains create unique circumstances in various parts of the Earth over the course of a 54-year cycle.  This makes major events like hurricanes, earthquakes, blizzards, floods, droughts, and volcanoes ebb and flow and peak at certain times in the cycle in certain places.  These events can be charted and proximately estimated to recur at certain times.  These patterns have enormous consequences for human planning and accommodating to minimize the damage and lives lost when such events occur.

Economic Events

Because high heat has a sluggish impact on the work of the human animal, hot and cold weather, tropical and temperate zones, dry hot deserts and cool humid forests, all have an impact on human output economically.  At the macro level these effects average out to show slow steady evolution of the economic growth rate over the course of the 54-year cycle.  Depressions and booms are accentuated by either long term cooling or heating trends with slight cooling helping economic growth and slight heating slowing economic growth.  Stocks and employment vary with these undercurrents.  Understanding things like how the May day to Halloween slowdown in stock markets occur worldwide can begin to better predict markets leading to greater stability.  Many fortunes will be made or lost applying these effects to economic models.

War and Social Change Events

Human exuberance and lethargy, confidence and anxiety changes as economic booms lead to new countries emerging as world leaders and competition among nations leads to war and social change tensions.  These forces ebb and flow with the changes in the 54-year cycle.  Revolutions don’t happen when despair is widespread, they occur when things begin to change for the better.  Peck order imperatives exist throughout the animal kingdom and also among human societies and nations.  Change requires struggle, whether that be by social movement, economic trade, or by war.  Knowing when these impacts are most likely can greatly reduce the need for excessive and premature war preparations due to uncertainty and fear, leading to the “reduction of armies” mentioned in Alfred Nobel’s will as a justification for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Better understanding of natural economic and social effects can greatly reduce the need for large armies.


The Reuschlein economic model, defense strategy models, and evaporation cycle explanations can all lead to reduced world tensions and the reduction of armies.  The urgent need for taming global warming requires both action and understanding, and many huge mistakes will be made without modeling for the land ocean interaction caused by evaporation differences that play out over the course of 54-years and the many different geographies of planet Earth and the planet’s peoples.

Basic information about the Climate/Economy/War Cycle:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 14), “Important to Climate Change” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019193912.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 93 Strong Web Looks in 10+ months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Inciting American Violence


Thanks to the work of “Morning Joe” and the “Washington Post” the latest mass murder cases make a case for liability against the President like the skinhead murder of Mulugeta Seraw in Portland Oregon November 13, 1988 that later bankrupted a skinhead group called the White Aryan Resistance (WAR).  The courts found them liable for encouraging their members to commit racial murder, and $18 million was awarded to the plaintiffs.

Mass Murder in El Paso Texas

The statement (posted by the murderer of 22) on a racist website (HChan) talks about the invasion of Mexicans into America, and El Paso has an 85% Hispanic community.  So, driving over 700 miles to the El Paso Walmart made sense to the Trump supporter from McAllen Texas.  Invasion was mentioned on 2000 of 10,000 Facebook ads by the Trump campaign in the first seven months of 2019, and $1.25 million was spent on immigration themed ads since March 2019.  Trump and his rally audience laughed recently when an audience member said “Shoot them” when Trump asked rhetorically what to do about these immigrants.  One 2018 caravan of 20,000 individuals dwindled down to a few hundred by the time it reached the border, but this was threat enough for a major theme of the 2018 campaign for congress last Fall.  Trump and Fox News worked together to exaggerate and lie about this alleged threat to America, even calling El Paso a high crime city when in fact they are a low crime city.  The Trump campaign started in 2015 claiming immigrants were rapists and murderers and repeatedly returned to this and related themes for the entire four years since then.  Opinion polls show most Americans (51% to 46%) believe Trump to be a racist.

Washington Post

An article in the Post showed that while hate crimes are up 17% overall under Trump, the average increase in communities that held a Trump rally in 2016 was about 223% after the rally compared to before the rally.   Mass murders are at a record pace this year with already 252 murders of four or more.  Most of these qualify for the domestic terrorism definition in legal textbooks, while no law has passed like the law about international terrorism.  White nationalist terrorism deaths exceed international terrorism deaths in America these days according to the current FBI director, but may be four times as many according to former acting director Andrew McCabe in his new book.  Another account says domestic terrorism exceeded foreign terrorism against Americans in the nineties before 9-11-01 and has returned to that dominance lately.

Moscow Mitch

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has been dubbed “Moscow Mitch” by Morning Joe for sitting on two bills inspired by the Russian activity in American elections as reported in the Mueller Report.  One bill would require paper ballots in American elections to protect against internet intrusions and the other would require campaigns to report foreign involvement in our elections.  Mitch gets lots of money from gun manufacturers and election machine manufacturers, so he blocks bills for reforms in both areas, as well as protecting Trump.  In fact, despite frequent Republican calls to divert 90% approval action on gun sales background check loopholes by referring to mental illness as the explanation for mass murderers, the first bill to pass congress and be signed into law by Trump and congressional Republicans actually reversed Obama action to stop gun sales to the mentally ill, foreigners, and those on the terrorist watch list.  And most mass murderers are motivated by hate not mental illness, according to research on the issue.  M.D. Steven Mills of the University of Minnesota has found in his research that members of households with guns in them are five times more likely to die of gun death than members of households without guns.  So, owning guns does more to endanger yourself and those you love than it does to protect those in one’s household.  Thom Hartmann found in his new book that the constitutional protection for owning firearms was mostly to allow fugitive slave patrols to operate in early America.  Scalia found an obscure reason to extend the gun provision beyond “well-regulated militias” to individuals in a 1987 (circa) Supreme Court decision.


The Russians used the non-disclosure laws and the NRA to funnel tens of millions of dollars into the Trump campaign.  Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort delivered 75 pages of Trump campaign information including the targeting of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to the Russians in August 2016.  He did so in the first-floor restaurant of the 666 5th Avenue building owned by Trump son in law and aide Jared Kushner.  The three people who attended this collusion meeting each left by separate doors when the meeting ended.  Russian Facebook sites were involved in about 3500 instances of disinformation spread during that campaign, many that went viral and were simultaneously released on both campaign and Russian sites.  They were so successful that, for instance, 46% of Republican voters believed the fake news story about Hillary Clinton running a sex ring out of a DC pizza parlor.  This story lead to an assault on the pizza parlor by one of Trump’s deranged followers, just the kind of thing that happened in Germany and Italy just before World War II.  Stories like these about brown-shirt goons were in John Kennedy’s bestselling book “While England Slept” in 1940, despite father and American Ambassador Joe Kennedy’s position in favor of Chamberlain’s Munich policy in 1938, when the defensive mountain positions in Czechoslovakia were conceded to Hitler.  Collusion continues with every private meeting between Putin and Trump, especially the Helsinki statement where Trump shows he trusts Putin over his own 17 intelligence agencies.  Later the Mueller investigation indicted 34 Russian hackers and organizations.

Empire Story

These and many other modern corruptions of the American system of government result from the basic corruption trend of the economy, politics, and social structure of America as the hold on America has increased from the high level of militarization in America ever since World War II.  This is the story of how empires crumble becoming ever more dictatorial over time, directly correlated to levels of military spending.

Additional information about Military Economic Corruption:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 12), “Inciting AmericanViolence” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019193845.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 92 Web Looks in 10+ months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Schiff Mueller Testimony


After Robert Mueller testified to Judiciary on July 24, 2019, he testified further that afternoon to Congressman Adam Schiff’s Intelligence Committee.  Adam Schiff gives this brilliant introductory speech to that testimony, summarizing the importance of the Mueller Report.  That report was released in redacted form 4-18-19 and mis-framed by the President’s defense attorney William Barr, the appropriately “held in contempt” Attorney General.  Trump, Barr, Fox News, and congressman Nunes have all shamelessly lied to concoct a narrative to justify the president’s ongoing criminal conduct since Trump’s cooperation with the Russians to win election.  The president colludes in secret whenever he meets with Putin, especially in the shameful Helsinki statements.  Here is the brilliant Schiff statement in its entirety:

Congressman Adam Schiff:

“At the outset, and on behalf of my colleagues, I want to thank you, Special Counsellor Mueller, for a lifetime of service to the country.    Your Report, for those who have taken the time to study it, is methodical, and it is devastating.  It tells the story of a foreign adversary’s sweeping and systematic intervention in a close U.S. presidential election.  That should be enough to deserve the attention of every American, as you well point out.  But your report tells another story as well.  The story of the 2016 election is also about disloyalty to country, about greed, and about lies.  Your investigation determined that the Trump campaign, including Donald Trump himself, knew that a foreign power was intervening in our election and welcomed it, built Russian meddling into their strategy, and used it.  Disloyalty to country, those are strong words, but how else can we describe a presidential campaign which did not inform authorities about a foreign offer of dirt on their opponent, did not publicly shun it or turn it away, but which instead invited it, encouraged it, and made full use of it.  That disloyalty may not have been criminal. Constrained by uncooperative witnesses, the destruction of documents, and the use of encrypted communications, your team was not capable of establishing each of the elements of the crime of conspiracy beyond a reasonable doubt.  But not a provable crime in any event, but I think maybe something worse.  A crime is a violation of law written by congress, but disloyalty violates the very oath of citizenship, our devotion to a core principal of which our nation was founded, that we, the people and not some foreign power that wishes us ill, that we decide who governs us.  This is also a story about money, about greed and corruption, the leadership of a campaign willing to compromise the nation’s interest, not only to win, but to make money at the same time.  About a campaign chairman indebted to pro-Russia interests who tried to use his position to clear his debts and to make millions.  About a national security advisor using his position to make money from still other foreign interests.  About a candidate trying to make more money than all of them put together, the real estate project that to him was worth a fortune, hundreds of millions of dollars, and the realization of a lifelong ambition, a Trump tower in the heart of Moscow.  A candidate in fact, who viewed his whole campaign as the greatest infomercial in history.  Donald Trump and his senior staff were not alone in their desire to use the election to make money, for Russia too there was a powerful financial motive, Putin wanted relief from economic sanctions imposed in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and over human rights violations.  The secret Trump tower meeting between the Russians and senior campaign officials was about sanctions.  The secret conversations between Flynn and the ambassador of Russia were about sanctions.  Trump and his team wanted more money for themselves and the Russians wanted more money for themselves and for their Oligarchs.  But the story doesn’t end here either, your story talks about lies, lots of lies, lies about Trump tower Moscow and the Kremlin, lies about the firing of James Comey, and lies about the effort to fire you, director Mueller, and lies to cover it up.  Lies about secret meetings about negotiations about sanctions and lies about Wikileaks, lies about polling data and lies about hush money payments.  Lies about secret meetings in the Seychelles to set up secret back channels and lies about a secret meeting in Trump tower.  Lies to the FBI, lies to your staff, and lies to this committee.  Lies to obstruct an investigation into the most serious attacks on our democracy by a foreign power in our history.  That is where your report ends, director Mueller, with a scheme to cover up obstruct and deceive every bit as dramatic systematic and pervasive as the Russian disinformation campaign itself, but far more pernicious since this rot came from within.  Even now after 448 pages and two volumes, the deception continues, the president and his acolytes say your report found no collusion, though your report explicitly declines to address that question.  Though collusion involves both criminal and non-criminal conduct.  Your report laid out multiple offers of Russian help to the Trump campaign.  Acceptance of that help and over-active furtherance of that help, that is the very definition of collusion, whether it is a crime or not.  They say your report found no evidence of obstruction, though you outline numerous actions of the president that is intended to obstruct the investigation.  They say the president has been fully exonerated though you specifically declare you could not exonerate him.  In fact, they say your whole investigation was nothing more than a witch hunt, that the Russians didn’t interfere in our election, that it’s all a terrible hoax.  The real crime they say, is not that the Russians intervened to help Donald Trump, but that the FBI had the temerity to investigate it, when they did.  But worst of all, worse than all the lies and the greed, it the disloyalty to country.  For that, too, continues.  When asked if the Russians continue, will you take their help, Mr. President?  Why not, is the essence of his answer, everyone does it.  No Mr. President, they don’t.  Not in the America envisioned by Jefferson Madison and Hamilton, not for those who believe in the idea that Lincoln labored until his dying day to preserve, the idea animating our great national experiment, the idea then so precious still that our government is chosen by our people, through our franchise, and not by some hostile foreign power.   This is what is at stake, our next election, and the one after that, for generations to come, our democracy.  This is why your work matters, Director Mueller, this is why our investigation matters, to bring these dangers to light.”

Dangerous Times

Many Americans are worried about dictatorial and fascistic authoritarian tendencies of President Donald Trump, who despite unprecedented opinion polls that have never exceeded 50%, many fear he will be re-elected in 2020.  He compares to Caligula, the Roman Emperor who was considered the crazy one, yet he continues to dominate the news with an unending stream of outrageous “tweets” to some 64 million followers.  Caligula lasted only four years, and many hope that Trump will last only four years.  President Trump has told over 10,000 documented lies.

Additional information about How Empire Explains America Best:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 26), “Schiff Mueller Testimony” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019183327.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 82 Web Looks in 10 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Post Navigation