bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the tag “politics”

Value of Telling the Truth 

Overview

In this era of Fake News and those who seek the truth being labelled “Enemies of the People”, honesty seems almost an endangered species. While those in pursuit of science seek truth as their goal, those who practice more social skills still value the white lie.  Finding the truth on the internet is an elusive endeavor.

Personal History

Truth has been my North Star just as much as mathematics has been to me personally.  Math and truth are similar in being very straight forward and exacting.  Very early in life I committed to never lie.  I might be silent sometimes or perhaps change the subject, but I do not remember telling a lie until I was 23 years old.  I was very fierce about this, and still am very resistant to anything that is not the truth.  I remember an eighth grader bullying a fellow third grader on the path home from school and that’s when I committed to social justice.  It is said “to one’s own self be true and to no one else can thou be false.”  This works for me.  Lying only makes things confusing and too complicated to follow well.  The liar reaches the point of the saying “Oh what I tangled web we weave once we begin to deceive.”  Kind of like saying it’s hard to be true to your lies.

Truth  

Telling the truth, being always truthful, has been very important in building my personal understanding of life.  When confronted with two seemingly contradictory facts, I have always looked for ways both can be true.  This has sometimes taken some time but sooner or later an explanatory vision will come to me.  This tool has been important in building my scientific model of the world and how the world works.  Others will quit and be satisfied with confusion and “just let it go” but I keep the thought in the back of my mind until resolution results.  In this way I am always trying to learn, and always striving for more perfect understanding.

Tactlessness

Adhering to the principle of truth makes the white lie a skill I have refused to develop.  Some people, most people, would rather be liked or appreciated, but I value respect and attention more.  This springs from my devotion to honesty.

Trust

In the Spirit Level, Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger book (2009-2011 Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett) the authors find that trust is the most important variable in why income inequality weakens societies.  Trust comes from honesty and truth telling.

Lying

“Diogenes of Sinope (c. 404-323 BCE) was a Greek Cynic philosopher best known for holding a lantern (or candle) to the faces of the citizens of Athens claiming he was searching for an honest man.” (Ancient History Encyclopedia).  Lying has been found in 24% of resumes and half of all academic articles have false data used. The president has been documented by the Washington Post and the New York Times in over 10,000 lies.  What is amazing is that the president’s followers believe he tells the truth.  Thanks to the new “Pravda” state TV of Fox News his easily debunked view of the world is substantiated by his sycophants.  But the problem of lying is that the truth comes out eventually.  But zealots everywhere have trouble recognizing the truth.  It is easier to recognize the truth if you live a truthful life.  Trump knows branding and marketing but has no interest in sticking to the truth if it damages the marketing.  Nazi Joseph Goebbels knew it didn’t matter if the truth got out so long as the propaganda narrative remained preeminent.

Modern World

In the modern world of the internet, truth is hard to discern, and may even be confusing to the younger generation because it is so elusive.  When you talk about truth, they give you blank stares.  Late Night TV host Stephen Colbert has even coined the word “truthiness” to convey this ambiguity.  Wikipedia states “Truthiness is the belief or assertion that a particular statement is true based on the intuition or perceptions of some individual or individuals, without regard to evidence, logic, intellectual examination, or facts.”

Peace Economics

In pursuit of the truth by research and engineering, art science and math all play important roles.  When the broad picture is a little muddy, various ways of examining the details can help enormously to clarify whatever is the truth.  This is often a search for highs, lows, and parameters for an underlying model then testing that model against the actual data to see what scale fits most exactly.  If it is basic truth, it should work best under the most extreme circumstances, like World War II or the Great Depression.  My economic model has gradually improved over the last hundred years as the annual precision has approached the accuracy of the long-term model.  Fine tuning then leads to more unexplained details standing out.  Such a process should never be confused or dismissed as cherry-picking, it is just the recognition that even when theory explains most cases, there will always be details that need a new explanation, often a relatively obvious explanation.  That is the nature of engineering science.  Follow the data closely and with a wide range of perspectives or fields, if you are looking for the truth.  Don’t let red herrings based on knowledge you are making obsolete lead you astray from findings that better explain the totality of the circumstances.

For additional information about this see:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, June 19), “Value of Telling the Truth” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Value-of-Telling-the-Truth,2019182057.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 68 in 8.5 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Empire Climate 32 Chapters

Overview        Here is the first draft of my 32 Chapter book table of contents with brief descriptions for each chapter followed by brief titles of the 216 press releases with their dates of release relevant to each chapter, listing in reverse chronological order.  The working book title is “Weather Wealth and Wars“ subtitled “Empire and Climate Economics”

  1. Introduction to Empire Theory A) Why Is USA an Empire? 11/5/2017; B) 12 Stages of Empire 9/29/2014; C) Military Terror Policing 8/17/2014; D) Peace Economics Matters 7/4/2014; E) Empire Concept 2/18/2014
  2. Social Decay of Empire. Empire societies are stagnant. As the frustration increases, win/lose “sideways” behaviors are rewarded.  Crime increases, with drugs and gambling sought out to paper over the pain.  Feudalism is the result, with the rise of militarism, the church, lords and serfs, at the expense of science and achievement.  A) Misogyny and Empire 9/10/2018; B) Militarism Distorts USA 8/14/2018; C) Income Inequality 4/29/2018; D) Military Economic Corollary 3/11/2017; E) Modern Empire 8/6/2016; F) Violent Society 7/23/2016; G) Football Baseball War5/28/2016; H) Peace Culture Economics 3/27/2015; I) Control Freak Society 3/14/2015; J) 12 Days of Empire 11/29/2014; K) 10 Empire Warps 10/12/2014; L) 10 Football Warlike 10/5/2014; M) Work and Empire 7/26/2014; N) Football and Empire 12/15/2013; O) Health and Crime 12/13/2013; P) Crime and Empire 12/5/2013
  3. Empire Trap. Empires go through several stages, rising due to natural defenses like oceans and a citizen military. Challenging the old empire in an epic battle gives one a taste of militarism.  Power and control prove seductive enough to develop a permanent military that drags the whole system down over time.                               A) Need to Know About Empire 1/8/2019; B) Born in The USA 12/14/2018; C) Demagoguery US 11/2/2018; D) Pride Comes Before Empire Fall 3/11/2018; E) CNN Top 5 All Empire 1/2/2016; F) Solstice Shopping 12/27/2014
  4. Historical Cases. American myths about World War II and the Great Depression allowed the myth of military Keynesianism to grow despite many examples of disastrous war spending in other nations.         A) How Empire Emerged 1/28/2018; B) Empire Explains 9/17/2016; C) War Decisions 9/9/2016; D) Deep Politics Iraq 6/4/2016; E) History 100 Years US 4/9/2016; F) CIA Presidents 1/23/2016; G) Modern Feudalism 2/21/2015; H) Religion Empire 1/3/2015; I) Hoover Great Depression 6/14/2014; J) Roosevelt 5/16/2014; K) Truman War 4/20/2014; L) Ukraine Crimea 3/4/2014
  5. International Military Economy. The resources used in the military budget are just like those of good producing industries like manufacturing. But there is no useful consumer product coming from the military.  So military spending depletes key capital and scientific talent normally devoted to growth industries.                     A) Technology Loser 12/21/2018; B) Military Economy Direct 3/6/2017; C) Nature of Military Spending 7/2/2016; D) Key Public Peace Economics 3/5/2016; E) War Occupy Economics 5/8/2015; F) Trade and the Military 1/17/2014;
  6. Regional Impact of Military Spending. All regions pay the military taxes, but only certain regions benefit from the spending, while other regions suffer recession from the tax drain. When the military is cut, the winners and losers switch places.  The low military regions boom and the high military regions suffer.                           A) Military in Society 12/28/2018; B) Military Geography 8/7/2017; C) Senate Power Republicans 7/31/2017; D) Rigged Electoral College 11/26/2016; E) Regional Military Economy 2/1/2015; F) Elections Plus 11/13/2014; G) Military States 4/26/2014; H) Key Midwest 1/21/2014;
  7. Military Spending Politics. Study of military build-ups and build-downs shows that the power positions in congress share the military budget with the president’s home state. All presidents elected during the Cold War came from high military spending states, thanks to fundraising and foreign focus advantages in those states.  A) Dictatorship Playbook 5/9/2019; B) You Think Its Okay 3/30/2019; C) Milwaukee Socials 3/26/2019; D) Power Corrupts 8/26/2018; E) Trump Russia Fire Fury 1/14/2018; F) Russia Hack Election 12/12/2016; G) Total War Politics 12/8/2016; H) Hillary Critics 2/27/2016; I) Walker Work Dignity 2/28/2015; J) Military Money Power 8/10/2014.
  8. Military Kondratiev Model. The model is based on military spending driving the economy down and deficits lifting the economy up. With those adjustments, the US, German, and world economy all follow a Kondratiev sine wave of 54 years, perfecting the fit every Juglar investment cycle of about nine years.                           A) Process Peace Economics 3/26/2016; B) Technical Peace Economics 3/12/2016; C) Create Economic Model 2/14/2015.
  9. Defense Strategy. Timing is everything. With major wars coming every fifty years or so, eroding the economy with too high military spending too soon and for too long will leave the nation weak for the next major war.   A) Reduce War System 4/2/2018; B) Peace Security Economy 1/1/2018; C) Military Defense 12/5/2015; D) Peace Hard Sell 11/7/2015; E) Leadership Ethics 9/18/2015; F) Fear of the Unknown 4/12/2015; G) Worthless War 1/23/2015; H) Paris Terror 1/8/2015; I) Wargames 4/5/2014.
  10. Power Elite. Many corporate directors sit on both a major bank board and a major military contractor board. This helps explain the unholy alliance between business and the military. The press has similar overlap with the intelligence agencies.          A) Idle Money Devil’s Workshop 1/29/2019; B) How Right Wing Controls USA 7/8/2018; C) Plot to Destroy America 7/3/2018; D) Conspiracy Theory 6/14/2018; E) Media Influence CIA 5/28/2018; F) CIA Live History 4/16/2016; G) National Security State 11/22/2015.
  11. Stock Market. Almost two months after the Republicans took over congress in 1994 you could have bought a cross section of major military stocks and still received an average gain of 70% eighteen months later.   A) Disruption of 8 Industries 5/22/2019; B) High Interest 11/11/2016; C) Class Warfare 10/18/2016; D) Trade Wars 6/18/2016; E) Banking and the Military 1/2/2014.
  12. Future. The future is fairly predictable. High military nations will lose share of the world economy and low military nations will gain share of the world economy.  The major nations experiences both during and after the Cold War are readily explained by their military spending levels.                A) Future President 4/23/2016; B) Useful Peace Economics 1/16/2016; C) Animal Peace Economics 12/28/2015; D) Economic Conversion 7/3/2015; E) Turkeys of the Arboretum 5/31/2015; F) Education Peace Economics 4/19/2015; G) World Governance 2/7/2015.
  13. Summary Broad. The expertise used and paradigm shifts required to understand this interdisciplinary approach to understanding America in the world today. A brief review of the major understandings employed in this approach.        A) Architecture Peace Economics 4/30/2019; B) Valuable Peace Economics 10/1/2018; C) Good Concepts Update 5/13/2018; D) Middle Year Empire Update 7/16/2017; E) Reuschlein World 6/13/2015; F) Capitalism or Empire 11/23/2014. G) Real Peace Economics or Not 6/7/2014
  14. Summary Possibilities. This section reviews how different interest groups ought to view and use this research with their constituencies. Also takes a look at how warming cooling and cycle theory affect the climate issues of today.   A) Spectrum Peace Economy 9/21/2018; B) Great Reads Make 5/6/2018; C) Constitutional Military Cost 3/4/2018; D) Terror Cost to Society 2/25/2018; E) Changing World Views 10/8/2017; F) Hottest Downloads 4/14/2017; G) Communicate Peace Economics 2/20/2016; H) Invade Next 2/13/2016; I) Empire Research Lost 1/25/2015; J) Record Month Peace Economics 1/14/2014; K) New Class Curriculum 1/7/2014; L) Misguided Liberals and Conservatives 1/5/2014.
  15. Military Economics Summary A) Findings Claims 11/16/2017; B) Wargamer to Peace 7/2/2017; C) Wargaming Gygax 3/31/2017; D) Peace Politics 1/9/2016; E) Peace Economics the Only Way 10/10/2015; F) Military Dis-Economics 11/3/2014; G) 10 Military Domestic Effects 9/15/2014; H) Proof of Peace Economics 7/12/2014; I) Next Generation Economics 12/30/2013.
  16. Introduction to Climate Theory                                                                                          A) Cycle Matters 8/3/2014; B) Cycle Crucial 2/24/2014
  17. Civilization and Climate History. The last three thousand years have shown a pattern of civilizations rising and falling with temperature changes in the Mediterranean Sea area. As temperatures rose more Northerly civilizations thrived and as temperatures fell more Southerly civilizations thrived.  A) Great Pivot Climate 2/19/2019; B) Egypt to Britain Climate Change 1/24/2014
  18. Evaporation and Water. Worldwide, 85% of solar radiation is used to evaporate water, higher over ocean and lower over land. This causes many complex land ocean interactions and makes the water cycle dominant over the temperature cycle. A) 10 Evaporation Impacts 9/22/2014; B) Evaporation 7/19/2014.
  19. World Weather. The largest land mass on the planet dominates the worlds weather in many ways, with half the world’s land in the Eurasia North Africa part of the Northern hemisphere. North America acts as a backwater to that Sahara Siberia dominated system.            A) Land Ocean Cycle 7/30/2016.
  20. Weather Cycle. With land three times as sensitive to temperature changes as the ocean, long cycles of major droughts, floods, volcanoes, earthquakes, hurricanes and blizzards can be documented in US weather. The Earth cycle pattern and causes are discussed.    A) Hurricane Planet Dynamics 9/10/2017; B) Texas Harvey 8/27/2017; C) Prediction 8/26/2014; D) Hurricane Climate Cycle 2/7/2014; E) Philippines Typhoon 11/12/2013; F) Typhoon Haiyan 11/11/2013.
  21. World Correlations. Various regions of the globe respond to other regions as the world goes through the long cycle. We look in greater detail into the oddities of world weather systems under changing circumstances.                                                  A) Earth Cycle 3/21/2014; B) Cold Winter 2/14/2014.
  22. Volcanoes. Major volcanoes cool the earth for two or three years after eruption. Warming spurts can set the stage for major eruptions and carbon dioxide releases by major volcanoes can be very significant.           A) Nepal Chile 4/28/2015; B) Chile Volcano 4/24/2015.
  23. Climate and the Economy. Various research and observations about the relationship between warming and poor economies and cooling and strong economies. Looking at personal, worldwide, and United States models of this phenomena. A) 10 Ways Heat Hurts 9/8/2014; B) Climate and Economics 12/3/2013.
  24. Kondratiev Cycle. Looking at the climate, generational theory, and innovation models of explanation for the long cycle. Also looking at population, life cycle, and skepticism about these models. A) Kondratiev Cycle 2/9/2014
  25. Economic Cycle. Looking at the various markers of economic extremes that support the theory of a long cycle in economics. Including growth rates, inflation, interest rates, stock market crashes, and unemployment.                                                A) History Repeats 3/20/2014
  26. War Cycle. Examines the record, especially for American wars, and reasons to explain the regularity of the war cycle. Even the irregularities and lesser wars tend to support certain common-sense notions.                                                                          A) Rights Climate Cycle 10/30/2018; B) Demonization Fuels Military 4/8/2018; C) Gun Control March 3/26/2018; D) Violence Cycle 11/29/2015; E) Baltimore Riot 5/2/2015; F) Gestalt 1961-2015 1/17/2015; G) 10 Ferguson Jury Mistakes 12/6/2014; H) War Cycle 11/16/2014; I) Democracy Ukraine US 9/1/2014; J) Civil Rights 3/29/2014; K) Cold Year Wars 12/19/2013.
  27. Greenhouse Effect. Examines the global warming and US warming records and various theories of manmade impacts, including the emerging consensus of the IPCC report in February 2007.            A) Climate Theory Clarified 7/27/2018
  28. Green Economy. How are the Kyoto Treaties and business reactions leading the world into the necessary changes. What are the trends in these changes?
  29. Warming Summary; A) Three Cycles Or One 9/17/2017; B) Weather Wealth Wars 1/11/2017; C) 15 Year Pause 4/12/2014.
  30. Scientific Revolution; A) Foreign Domestic Difference 4/23/2019; B) Interdisciplinary Insights 1/21/2018; C) Scientific Methods Vary 12/10/2017; D) Teaching Peace Econ 9/4/2017; E) Math Reductio Ad Absurdum 7/9/2017; F) Peace Science 1/21/2017; G) Many Go Wrong 9/24/2016; H) Paradigm Shifts Peace Economics 4/30/2016; I) Scientific Revolutions 4/2/2016; J) Shoulders of Giants 10/31/2015; K) First Gandhi 10/17/2015; L) Difficulty Along Way 6/20/2015; M) Economic Engineering 6/5/2015; N) Macro Micro 4/4/2015; O) 10 Scientific Revolution Facts 12/21/2014; P) 10 How Research Works 10/19/2014; Q) Reputation 8/24/2014; R) Peace Economics: How I Did It 6/21/2014; S) Numbers Words 1/30/2014; T) Peace Economics Peace Studies 1/9/2014.
  31. Nobel Peace Prize; A) Systemic Review 2/26/2019; B) Follow Norwegians 10/8/2018; C) Nobel Peace Year 10/1/2017; D) Odds on Nobel Prize 6/12/2017; E) Biography Peace 1/28/2017; F) Econ Perversion 12/29/2016; G) Nobel Prize Path 12/16/2016; H) Nobel Prize Letter 10/5/2016; I) Nobel Prize Watch 3/19/2016; J) Response Norway 2/6/2016; K) Nobel Peace Nominee 1/27/2016; L) 10 Nobel Pathways 10/25/2014.
  32. Biography; A) Great Gygax, Maybe Britain 6/18/2017; B) Congratulations 5/22/2017; C) Game Master Gygax 5/14/2017; D) Telos Institute 5/5/2017; E) Creative Life 4/22/2017; F) Nerd Number One 3/18/2017; G) Special Award   9/2/2016; H) Denmark Hamlet 8/20/2016; I) Peace Respect 1/31/2016; J) Learn in Japan 9/5/2015; K) Hiroshima Feature 7/18/2015; L) Film Made Peace Economics 6/27/2015; M) Nader Yale Data 5/24/2015; N) Top 10 Reasons for Radio Host 11/5/2014; O) Global Citizen Nomination 6/28/2014; P) Wargamer to Doctor Peace 5/30/2014; Q) Nashville 5/25/2014; R) Eugene Politician 5/14/2014; S) Doctorate 5/9/2014; T) No Ethanol 5/2/2014; U) Peace Economics 1st Course 3/18/2014; V) Peace Economics First Book 3/14/2014; W) How Peace Economics Starts 3/8/2014; X) Grandpa Markham Horicon Marsh 3/1/2014; Y) Peace Songs 1/12/2014; Z) Dr. Robert Reuschlein 10/10/2013.

For additional information about this see:

https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages_2015

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 29), “Empire Climate 32 Chapters” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Empire-Climate-32-Chapters,2019181359.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 60 in 8 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019. Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Disruption of 8 Industries

Overview

Adoption of the new Reuschlein sciences of economics, empire theory, and the global warming cycle will change everything, especially disrupting certain industries and many fields.  Here is a partial list.

Economic Development

Proofs over many decades, the Cold War, the twentieth century, and now the twenty-first century 9-11 military buildup, Great Recession, and Obama Trump recovery show continuous proof that military spending increases hurt manufacturing, productivity, capital investment, and economic and jobs growth rates precisely and in every situation.  Bottom line research and capital resources of a nation can be used to grow the economy and produce goods or be diverted into power projection through military spending, but the choice is binary, one avenue leads to economic growth and the other leads to lost manufacturing jobs transferred over to the defense service “make work” economy instead to give a false impression of economic growth.  In fact, the “make work” economy depresses manufacturing states in order to give pseudo-growth to military spending states, as research and capital are merely redeployed among the states using the federal budget process.  The result is re-arranged economic growth in an atmosphere of overall reduced growth.  This pattern can be supplemented by deficit or tax cut economic growth to camouflage or offset the negative military economy effect.  Changes in deficit minus military change the economic growth rate.  Measured in economic growth rate, jobs growth rate, or unemployment rate change all work about the same, relative to trend.

Economic Prediction

The uncanny accuracy long term of the Reuschlein economic model shows up increasingly clearly over time, as annual poor accuracy becomes more accurate like the decade long Juglar cycle accuracy over time.  The in between years in a nine-year Juglar investment cycle show an 80% reduction in volatility from the twenties to the eighties as industries gradually conquer the inventory recessions so common before 1980.  Now recessions since 1982 in America have followed the nine-year Juglar cycle, 1982, 1991, 2001, and 2009.  Trade war might give the next recession in 2020, just as trade war gave us the Great Depression in the early thirties.  Withdrawal from Iraq military cuts lead to unemployment rate reductions in the five years from 2011 to 2015 at almost twice the rate of the military buildup years from 2016 to 2018.  The current formula looks like accuracy is now coming in the annual year by year situation, not just in the decade long Juglar cycle.  The new short-term formula:  deficits add to economic growth and military spending reduces economic growth, dollar for dollar.

Political Prediction   

Because there is nothing in the federal government budget like military spending.  It is the largest category of expense in the authorized budget, about half of the total.  Most of the rest of the budget is entitlements or otherwise relatively fixed in distribution among the states.  During the Cold War 80% of the variation of per capita federal spending in each state was caused by the military spending differences, with about half the states getting half the national average of military spending per capita, and the other half getting 150% of the national average for the military.  This makes those who control the military budget the most powerful people in congress, along with the president.  These people not only dominate the leadership positions in congress (80% from high military states and 20% from low military states, but they also dominate the presidential primaries and general election, such that high military state candidates won all eleven Cold War elections and the seven major party nominees from low military spending states all lost.  Post Cold War the two Democratic presidents came from CIA backgrounds and low military spending states.  Military research funding is in the top three states of California, Massachusetts, and North Carolina, with Silicon Valley, Route 128, and Research Triangle respectively.  California has four times that of the other two.  Post Cold War the top research institution went from MIT to Johns Hopkins, from weapons to foreign policy, with the increase in the CIA noted in the elected presidents.

Social Mobility Prediction   

Large military spending will devastate manufacturing over time, changing a technology-oriented economy (manufacturing) into a services-oriented economy (financial and defense).  This state of empire created also dries up social mobility creating a class-based society.  I notice this all the time as increasingly elites from media, Hollywood, and government are the sons and daughters of previous elites.  High growth encourages diversity and low growth (military empire) encourages classism and nepotism.  Markets are fluid, political command is rigid.

National Defense Strategy

The military economic effect is so dominant in economics that those nations that overdo military defense will pay a very heavy price in the long run.  Minimizing your defense maximizes your growth and maximizes great power longevity.  The heavy-handed empire defense will always backfire in the long run.  Lightweight English bows and arrows defeated the heavy armored French in the battle of Agincourt.  Land armies are always much more expensive than navies, because they are essential for all land powers.  Sea powers are protected from land armies by large bodies of water, like the English Channel, or the Japan Sea, or America’s two oceans, hence they can defend more cheaply.

Investment Predictions

Changes in the military budget affect the low military inland Great Lakes area manufacturing states even more than their direct effect on military states, about two to four times as much.  But because this effect is not obvious, the inland manufacturing states are largely at the mercy of the coastal military states.  Because of the preference for military spending in the Republican party and for domestic spending in the Democratic party, changes in political parties controlling congress will have profound changes in regional economies.  This was so overlooked in 1994 that you could have waited two months to invest in defense stocks and still made a 70% profit a year and a half later.  Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio are four of the top five manufacturing states that will boom the next time military spending goes down.  California, Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia, and Arizona are traditional high military spending states that boom during military buildups.  In the four decades since the top tax rate was dropped 60% by Reagan in 1981-1984, banks have grown their relative share of the economy ten-fold and the top 1% income earners have quadrupled their share of national income while the lower 99% have flat lined.  All these effects are predictable outcomes of empire economics.

Climate Change Predictions

The Greenhouse Effect is all the rage while we ignore the evaporation effect.  Modifying Greenhouse predictions with the evaporation effect 54-year cycle and we greatly increase temperature change prediction accuracy.  Current climate change estimates are being underestimated because we are in the cooling half of the cycle from 1998 to 2025.  Climate change will dramatically accelerate after 2025, catching the experts by surprise.

Hurricane Predictions

Every other generation floods and droughts are regionally predictable, as well as blizzards.  Major volcanoes tend to come from the tropical area where the Indian and Pacific Oceans meet.  But the greatest opportunities for cyclic prediction of natural events are in the hurricane area.  New Orleans, Miami, North Carolina, and New York each have their own unique regional cyclic pattern.  These repeat mostly on a 54-year cycle basis plus or minus a couple years.  However, North Carolina and Miami have 27-year repetitions give or take a year or two.  Regularization of this approach could give greater reliability for protection of these communities.

The Seventeen Findings of Peace Economic Theories:  https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 22), “Disruption of 8 Industries” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Disruption-of-8-Industries,2019181131.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 57 in 8 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.        Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Dictatorship Playbook Trump

Nature of Trump

Trump is a conman and promoter extraordinaire.  Having set the American record for tax losses from 1985-1994 at $1.16 Billion he is obviously not a great businessman or entrepreneur, with his success ensured with $400 million from his dad (in today’s dollars).  He is probably not a Billionaire either.  His documented 10,000 lies in office show that he repeats a lie until is accepted as fact by the following that he started with thanks to his long running show “The Apprentice”.   He admires and believes Putin over his own 17 intelligence agencies making him either an unwitting or witting asset of the former KGB chief, far beyond the useful idiot stage of some of his entourage.  He admires other dictators around the world and disparages democratic leaders around the world, preferring the strongman bully over the weak.  Having laundered Russian money through the sale of 600 condos (at a guess of $250,000 each that would be about $150 million dollars) and with the prospect of $300 million from a Trump Tower in Moscow, he is heavily financially ingratiated to the Russians. Russian President Putin is the leader of the Russian kleptocrats known as oligarchs.  Here are a few of Trump’s favorite tools, with the number of Dr. Lawrence Britt’s list of fascist characteristics in parenthesis after each of the main tools.  Nationalism (1), National Security (7), Militarism (4), Sexism (5), Crime and Punishment (12) and Fraudulent Elections (14) are all aspects of fascism in the Trump playbook.

Control of Mass Media (#6)

Thomas Jefferson said that he would rather have a free press than free elections, because with a free press one could gain elections, but without a free press elections are meaningless.  As a master manipulator Trump uses his direct connection to 24 million Twitter followers and 16 million Facebook followers to reeducate his base and then uses that base to control the Republicans in congress who do not want to be “primary-ed” out of office.  Personal loyalty is his god, above all else.  Fox News is willing to play along and be the state media of the dictator.  Trump uses the common dictator’s tactic of calling news he doesn’t like “fake news” and then openly lying with some whopper that paints him in a good light.

Disdain for Constitutional Law (not listed)

In a monarchy, the king is law.  In a constitutional democracy, the law is king.  No one is above the law, but thanks to endless branding in his tweets and supported by Fox News, Trump negatively brands anyone who dares to oppose him and rewards those who support him.  He has called the Mueller probe a witch hunt at least 170 times.  He now has the whole Republican establishment behind him starting with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Judiciary Chair Lindsey Graham, hence he is determined to be “above the law”.  Over 900 former prosecutors of both parties have claimed that the 10 or so instances of obstruction of justice in the Mueller Report would be charged against Trump if he were not a president.  He has repeatedly downgraded the judiciary, the FBI, Robert Mueller, and the CIA.  Now he is stonewalling 81 subpoenas and any testimony at all.

Scapegoats and Enemies as a Unifying Cause (#3)

Trump’s first campaign pledge was to build a wall against Mexican immigrants who he claimed were criminals, and one of his first acts in office was to try and ban Muslims from coming to America.  Then there was Charlottesville Virginia where Trump tried to exonerate Nazi’s and their protesters as “nice people on both sides”.  White nationalists have openly embraced Trump as one of their own.

Rampant Cronyism and Corruption (#13)

Campaigning against the “swamp” in Washington DC Trump has set a modern record for corrupt and indicted appointees to his cabinet, compared to none of that kind for Obama.  After refusing to divest himself of his holdings, he has welcomed things like the Saudi’s booking over a thousand hotel nights in his Trump hotel near the White House.  His inauguration also lavishly paid his hotel for meals and stays for various guests.  He even joined in a Saudi blockade of Dubai until they relented and granted a mortgage for his son in law’s building and main asset at 666 5th Ave. in New York.  China gave financing for a Trump project in Indonesia and got favorable treatment for a Chinese company affected by tariffs.

Putin’s Apprentice (not listed)

The secrecy around his meetings with Putin is such that he asked for the translator’s notes and promptly destroyed them after one meeting.  Helsinki was a disaster where he stood side by side with Putin and contradicted the 17 US intelligence agencies and the Mueller 31 Russian indictments openly doubting that the Russians interfered with the 2016 election.  After firing Comey, he met alone with the Russians in the Oval Office and their transcript is the record of his boasting that the Russian hoax was behind him.  He is grateful to Putin for putting him in office, and Manafort gave the Russians 75 pages of campaign information to guide them in their targeting along with the target states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Only Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were targeted on the gun issue according to Young Mie Kim of UW Madison journalism school.  Those two states were heavily saturated with ads more than any other states.  The social media of the 73 Russian sites combined with 200 other independent sites and super Pac sites often posted the same exact material at the same exact time, so there was coordination between Trump allies and the Russians that Mueller failed to pick up on.  One book has already come out alleging that Trump is Putin’s Apprentice and freeing Russian Oligarch Deripaska from sanctions is just one of many strange pro-Russian acts by Trump and he never says anything bad about Putin personally.  This when Trump castigates nearly everyone else around him, friend or foe, at some time or other.

Command Interference (not listed)

Abuse of power includes examples of what the military calls “command interference” when an investigation is pressured into a result higher ups in the chain of command want.  Examples include the anger of Trump when he fired Comey that acting FBI director McCabe let Comey return to Washington DC on a government plane.  Trump wanted to strand Comey in California and force him to return on commercial aircraft after being fired.  Another example includes the haste to fire McCabe 48 hours before he would have been vested in his pension, with the command interference influencing the investigation that claimed McCabe had acted with “less than full candor” about a call to the media he did as part of his job.  McCabe claims he was confused by the question and came back immediately with a clarification that would have exonerated him.  Another example of command interference is making Rosenstein agree to Barr’s weird interpretation of how a president can’t be guilty of obstruction of justice for performing a constitutional act with corrupt purpose.  Barr may have ended the Mueller probe before it could fully and properly finish to avoid looking into the counterintelligence part of the probe, which is not in the Mueller Report.

Dear Future US President Letter:

https://www.academia.edu/32905059/DEAR_FUTURE_US_PRESIDENT_Spring_2016_3_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 9), “Dictatorship Playbook Trump” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Dictatorship-Playbook-Trump,2019180677.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 52 in 7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Architecture Peace Economy

Putting Dominoes in Order

The first domino of military spending shows a perfect inverse relationship with manufacturing productivity growth for the seven largest industrialized capitalist country economies during the Cold War.  The second domino uses capital investment versus military spending from 1960-80, and perfects for the four largest NATO economies plus Sweden.  One finding says military spending is lost manufacturing and the other says it is lost capital investment.  That is virtually the same message when you understand that most capital investment goes into manufacturing.  That the manufacturing is stronger and broader suggest a variability in financial investment.  The third domino is federal government deficit with the large-scale experiment of World War Two 1941-48 proving the basic point that deficits lift the economy as much as military spending depresses the economy.

Connections to First Domino

The first domino of military spending and the economy is so stunning that the next thing to do is to put the idea to the test as many ways and in as many major academic fields as possible.  The first major test was to build an accurate long-term model in the United States economy.  This was easily the toughest first big test and took about six months of work with hundred-year long data sets of economic statistics including dozens of various multi-year averaging’s to find the turning points in history.  The fourth domino is from the obvious economic boom of the fifties and sixties, the Kondratiev Wave of long-term booms and busts.  Detailed modeling using a 54 year cycle showed annual variability on domino one (manufacturing productivity growth rate) net of domino three (deficit).  Then the next stunner was how the variability disappeared every nine or so years into perfection again.  This was domino five, the Juglar investment cycle of 8-10 years.  The basic model was also roughly confirmed in partial modeling on the German and world economies.

Foreign Policy Connections

Foreign policy is built around the idea that you need a strong economy and military to be a dominant power in the world.  But most social science modeling mistakenly assumes a strong military can lead to a strong economy.  The first domino shows this is a false assumption.  Then I devoted a chapter in my first book Peace Economics (1986) to studying the implications of the economy versus military power trade-off, producing two curves, one arithmetic and one geometric to help decide the proper trade-offs for short term and long-term wars.  The key point is the new Reuschlein model and information points to a “necessary substantial reduction in armies” required of all countries that wish to defend their country well in the coming decades before and during the next war.  This domino includes an assessment of when major wars occur, which brings us back to the fourth domino of the Kondratiev Wave 54-year cycle between major wars which come about 18 years after second biggest wars of a cycle.  This is domino six the change in defense strategy all nations must undergo with the new reality.

Domestic Connections and the Empire Model

Domino seven is the relationship between the military and politics.  The more military per capita of a home state, the more powerful is the politician representing that state.  In all eleven elections of the Cold War, Presidents came from home states in the high military spending half of America.  This bias looks about 80% true for leading political positions like congressional leadership, cabinet members, and Supreme Court appointees.  Domino eight is the relationship between the military budget and the local state and regional economies.  Domestically military spending merely transfers resources between the manufacturing heavy states and the military spending heavy states.  Overall military buildups depress manufacturing jobs and investments to transfer those productive resources into national defense services.  Domino nine is the relationship between military spending and murder and crime rates.  As the economy goes down crime goes up and real estate markets get corrupted leading to financial crises.  Domino ten is the connection between the military and income inequality, low social mobility, low mental health, high teen birthrates, high obesity, and the many other social indicators (such as escapism, gambling and drugs) of a declining empire.  Declining empires are frustrating places for the citizens.  Challenger nations rise on low military spending and after they become empires, decline on high military spending.

Environmental Connections and Global Warming Cycle

Domino eleven come from a three-year effort (1988-1991) to connect the 54-year cycle to its natural roots.  After endlessly poring over 16 century long data sets of the major sections of the planet Earth, I gradually saw how it all fit together in a great pattern.  27 years of warming weakens the economies of the world followed by 27 years of cooling boosting the economies of the world.  Major volcanoes, blizzards, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and wars and social upheavals like riots and social movements all follow the great cycle in its natural, economic, and political dimensions.  Evaporation slows the warming process such that oceans are the coolest and lands warm three times faster than oceans before all the feedback loops kick in creating the cycle.  Droughts peak in the last decade of the warming phase followed by a decade of heavy floods in the first decade of the cooling phase.  2025 is the end of the current cooling (slower warming) phase and global warming will redouble its efforts after that year.  Look out!  Hurricane Sandy (2012) led to a stunning confirmation of the accuracy of this cycle.

Presentation at the American Association of Geographers 4-7-19:

https://www.academia.edu/38937971/Military_Geography_16ppt_on_2_pages_4-7-19

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, April 30), “Architecture Peace Economy” Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Architecture-Peace-Economy,2019180316.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 49 in 7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Foreign Domestic Difference

Separating Foreign and Domestic Policy

The third element (Chapter 4 Territorial States) in “Geopolitics” textbook by John Agnew 1998-2003, makes a common assumption in the social sciences that foreign affairs and domestic policy can safely be considered separate.  Separating the two is impossible under the Peace Economics theory.  When the single most important obstruction to economic growth is military spending, all foreign policy must choose between a strong domestic economy and strong projection of power internationally.  That is the fundamental flaw in all empires, leading to the decline of empires in the long run.  Coercion may have some positive feedbacks in the short run and being at the top may attract talent from all over the world, but high military spending will corrupt the economy and drive up crime and corruption and create an unhealthy society (what I call empire decay) that will stall progress across the board in the long run.  Military spending is at the heart of both the domestic and foreign policy situations.

 

Peace Dividend  

Many people believe and even teach that the United States did not experience a “Peace Dividend” after the end of the Cold War.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  It’s true that the shift came over time, with the military budget from 1985 to 1999 pretty much level at $250 billion a year.  But a detailed look shows that inflation was high in the beginning of that period and low at the end.  The percent of GDP for the military was 6.5% at the start and 2.9% by the end of that period, with tremendous prosperity especially in the low military industrial heartland Great Lakes states of the North Central area known as the Midwest.  National economic growth rates doubled (Peace Dividend) from the Reagan military buildup eighties to the post-Cold War nineties, but regionally the Bi-Coastal economy (Atlantic Seaboard plus California) showed much less change:  leading the way in the low growth eighties, thanks to 80% of the military buildup going there, and trailing the low military high manufacturing states of the Big Ten football conference in the nineties boom.  Only the third great economic force, the Kondratiev Wave of technology and generational growth, made both the boom and balanced budgets possible by the end of the nineties, only to be squandered by the Iraq War.  California had four times the military research of any other state in the eighties but is now just an average military spending state.  California has America’s two main ideas industries, Silicon Valley and Hollywood and a huge young talent migration from the East.  Still as seven of the ten wealthiest counties in America are in the greater Washington DC area, power and wealth have gravitated to the most militarize area of America over the decades.  Not knowing what causes what allows cases to be made for many false and misleading half-baked theories. The patient thoroughness of an engineer has unearthed the meaningful verities in economics and the global warming cycle.

 

Corruptions of Empire  

Choose your enemies well, for soon you will be like them.  If Islamic extremists have gone off the deep end, so too has American domestic and foreign politics under Trump.  Marginal issues rise like illegal immigration that had been at record lows until the recent turmoil in Central America.  Focusing on taking sides in the Shia Sunni struggles looks small minded for the leading superpower as are the endless faceless drone campaigns across the Muslim world.  Stirring up chaos and meddling everywhere inevitably will boomerang.  The endless hate campaign of the president’s twitter storms is wearing people out across America.  The president’s tirades against the press, legal institutions, truth, law, and anyone with a different opinion look like the moves of a third world dictator, not the leader of a great democracy.  The president has abandoned his many pledges to the middle class and installed a swamp region of favoritism for the rich and powerful.  Now the Mueller report comes out with a shocking list of endless misbehavior.  Corruption has become the norm thanks to the conman from New York.  The title of one of the many books is “Everything Trump Touches Dies.”  Comparisons with Caligula, the crazy emperor of Rome, seem to fit so well.

 

Seventeen great conclusions of the Reuschlein Theories:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, April 23), “Foreign Domestic Difference” Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Foreign-Domestic-Difference,2019180102.aspx

 

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 47 in 7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

You Might Think It’s Okay

Thursday March 28, 2019 the US House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff was asked by the Nine Republicans on that committee to resign.  He gave a response for the ages not unlike the House Army McCarthy hearings in May 1956 when Senator McCarthy was finally brought down for his overreach with the comment “Have You No Shame.”  Schiff’s retort “You Might Think It’s Okay” may be the new rallying cry to Trump’s “Roy Cohn” Attorney General William Barr’s latest attempt to whitewash the Trump Russia compromise.  Here is the text of this famous exchange in the United States House of Representatives:

Representative Michael Conaway (R) Texas Intelligence Committee: “We have no faith in your ability to discharge your duties in a manner consistent with your constitutional responsibility and urge your immediate resignation as chairman of the committee.  Mr. Chairman this letter is signed by all nine members of the Republican side of the House on the committee.”

Representative Adam Schiff (D) California Intelligence Committee Chair: “My colleagues may think its okay that the Russians offered dirt on a Democratic candidate for president as part of what was described as the Russian government effort to help the Trump campaign.  You might think that’s okay.  My colleagues might think its okay, that when that was offered to the son of the president, who had a pivotal role in the campaign, that the president’s son did not call the FBI, he did not adamantly refuse that foreign help, no instead that son said that he would love the help of the Russians.  You might think its okay that he took that meeting.  You might think it’s okay that Paul Manafort, the campaign chair, someone with great experience to run a campaign, also took that meeting. You might think it’s okay that the president’s son in law also took that meeting.  You might think it’s okay that they concealed it from the public.  You might think it’s okay that the only disappointment from that meeting was that the dirt on Hillary Clinton wasn’t better.  You might think that’s okay.  You might think it’s okay, that when it was discovered a year later, they then lied about that meeting, said it was about adoption.  You might think that the president helped dictate that lie.  You might think that’s okay, I don’t.  You might think it’s okay that the campaign chairman of a presidential campaign would offer information about that campaign to a Russian oligarch in exchange for money or debt forgiveness.  You might think it’s okay, I don’t.  You might think it’s okay that that campaign chairman offered polling data, campaign polling data to someone linked to Russian intelligence. I don’t think that’s okay.  You might think it’s okay that the president himself called on Russia to hack his opponent’s emails, if they were listening.  You might think it’s okay that later that day the Russians attempted to hack a server affiliated with that campaign.  I don’t think that’s okay.

You might think it’s okay that the president’s son in law sought to establish a secret back channel of communications to the Russians through a Russian diplomatic facility.  I don’t think that’s okay.  You might think it’s okay that an associate of the president made direct contact with the GRU through Guccifer 2.0 and wiki-leaks that is considered a hostile intelligence agency.  You might think it’s okay that a senior campaign official was instructed to reach that associate and find out what that hostile intelligence agency had to say in terms of dirt on his opponent.  You might think its okay that the National Security Advisor designate secretly conferred with the Russian ambassador about undermining US sanctions and you might think it’s okay that he lied about it to the FBI.  You might say that’s all okay, that’s just what you need to do to win.  But I don’t think it’s okay, I think its immoral, I think it’s unethical, unpatriotic, and yes, I think its corrupt, and evidence of collusion.  Now I have always said, that whether this amounts to conspiracy was another matter.  Whether the Special Counsel could prove beyond a reasonable doubt of that crime would be up to the Special Counsel, and I would accept his decision, and I do.  He is a good and honorable man and a good prosecutor.  But I do not think that conduct criminal or not is okay.  And the day we do think that is okay is the day we look back and say America has lost its way.

And I will tell you one more thing that is apropos of the hearing today.  I don’t think it’s okay that during a presidential campaign Mr. Trump sought the Kremlin’s help to consummate a real estate deal in Moscow that would make him a fortune.  According to Special Counsel hundreds of millions of dollars.  I don’t think it’s okay to lie and conceal it from the public.  I don’t think it’s okay to advocate a new and more favorable policy to the Russians even as he was seeking the Kremlin’s help to make money.  I don’t think it’s okay to instruct his attorney to lie to our committee.  There is a different word for that than collusion, and its called compromise.  And   that is the subject of our hearing today.”

Relevance to Peace Economics:

The corruption of the empire society plutocracy has become obvious to most in America.  Reagan with his military buildup, making the rich almost tax free, union busting, and killing the equal time provision of the media, has let the oligarchy gain control over America at the expense of the middle class which has been falling steadily further behind since that 1980 election mistake.  The suggested reading below “Rankism and Dignity” offers a different vision of inclusion instead of the Trump politics of exclusion and conning people with 9179 documented lies in Trump presidency (Washington Post).

Rankism and the Dignity Society (second most popular on academia last month):

https://www.academia.edu/11020728/RANKISM_and_DIGNITY_Robert_Fuller_Concept_1_p._2006

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, March 30), “You Might Think It’s Okay” Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/You-Might-Think-It’s-Okay,2019179302.aspx

 

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double that of last year 38 in 6 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Milwaukee Socials Not Kings

The Democratic Party has chosen the city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to hold their 2020 presidential nomination convention.  This helps sharpen the contrast with the plutocratic Republican Cult Party of President (King wannabe) Trump.  The personality cult of Trump has chosen the messaging of labeling the Democrats the party of Socialists.  No city in America has a prouder Socialist tradition than Milwaukee, since they have had a Socialist mayor for 73 of its 174 years since the initial 1846 incorporation.  The last socialist mayor of any major American city was Frank Zeidler who served as Milwaukee mayor from 1948 to 1960.  Born in September 1912 he died two months short of his 94th birthday in July 2006.  One day in about 1994 or 1995, I spoke to two international groups in Milwaukee about Peace Economics, in the morning to the World Federalists and in the evening to the Waukesha suburban group of the United Nations Association.  Frank Zeidler was present in attendance at both presentations.  He was so impressed with my first presentation to the World Federalists about 10am in downtown Milwaukee that he showed up to hear me again about 7pm in Waukesha about 15 miles away.  The last I saw of him, he looked very thoughtful taking it all in, and I was extremely honored but respected his privacy.  I have had similar reactions from many groups and individuals who have heard me, but like the parable of the seeds in the bible, many hear a new message, a seed, and forget or are choked off by weeds or fall on rocks (seeds) or are trapped in status quo thinking (message), et cetera.  Debbie Metke leader of that group in Milwaukee remains a key fan of mine. Debbie knew me from my five presentations at the five last Fall national meetings of the World Federalist Association of the United States 1998-2002 in Pittsburg, Toronto, Dallas, Saint Louis, and Denver.  I gradually lost interest in that group as it changed their name to Citizens for Global Solutions (CGS).  I last attended the CGS Santa Fe conference November 4-6, 2005.  I stopped being a local CGS group leader in Madison, Wisconsin after a last January 2006 national meeting by conference phone call held in my condo attended by Lee and Tom Brown.

Socialist Confusions

Milwaukee was settled with German 1848ers many arriving from 1846 to 1854.  The Wisconsin Historical Society says “Between 1846 and 1854, a wave of German immigrants arrived, bringing with them expert industrial skills, refined culture, liberal politics, and Catholicism. Milwaukee soon became a center of foundry, machinery, and metal-working industries, as well as a center for brewing and grain trading.”  1848ers were disaffected Germans who were inspired by Karl Marx’s “Communist Manifesto” but felt they no longer “fit in” in Germany so left for America.  But while true communists believe in state ownership of the means of production, democratic socialists believe in freedom and democracy, preferring to use laws and rules to modify and supplement capitalism and avoid monopolistic practices and abuses.  Oddly enough the promise of affordable drugs, health care, and education for all, taxing the wealthy, and living wages are very popular among the people, but not so the word socialism.  Many European conservatives with their social compacts would be labelled socialists in America.  Why is being social good but being socialist bad?  Why is community a good thing and communism a bad thing?  Why in the eighties was Nicaragua communist and Costa Rica a democracy, even though both had elected leaders, 65% private sector economies, and 35% state owned major industries like banking and petroleum?  Often labeling and guilt by association is the major difference.  Often those who challenge ruling elites and foreign ownership are demonized regardless of the merit of their positions.

Trump as Kingly Cult

The Republican Party has long had an interest in big business and strong authoritarian-like leadership.  The original Tories in revolutionary days wanted to stay with rule by the king of England.  Oddly enough the Republican Party looks like the result of the saying “be careful about your enemies for soon you will be like them”.  As militaristic Cold War America gradually became more like the totalitarian socialists of the Russia dominated Soviet Union, some of these tendencies gradually became more aggravated.  Trump became the cult leader of conservatives and took over the Republican Party and then the nation as he was elected, by the slave era electoral college and with a base of former slave states, despite receiving 3 million less votes.  Trump is an internet media king with his 24 million Twitter followers and 16 million Facebook followers.  He has used this independent media position along with the effective state TV of fox news to act like a dictator, like many of his most admired world leaders like Putin of Russia (his main mentor), Duarte of the Philippines, and Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) of Saudi Arabia and Kim of Korea.  He has used 9000 tabulated lies so far and intimidation tactics extensively to hold his own party in line and limit the effectiveness of his enemies. Enemies include the truth, media, courts, and the traditional national security state in the state department, FBI, and the CIA.  Kings and dictators usually use his kind of tactics, making the GOP the party of authoritarianism.  His racial appeals against immigrants and various “others” are the dream come true of white nationalists.  Lawrence Britt (2003) “14 Characteristics of Fascism” apply to much of Trump’s behavior.  Empire levels of militarism for 74 years has led to the Trump extremism.  America resisted these militaristic economy tendencies for a generation or two, then Reagan sowed the seeds of income inequality, media extremism, and militarism leading to the hollowed out middle class of today’s America.  Scapegoating then built up the Trump cult.

Nature of Militaristic Empire Society Leads to this situation:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, March 26), “Milwaukee Socials Not Kings”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Milwaukee-Socials-Not-Kings,2019179143.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (pace double that of last year) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Idle Money Devil’s Workshop

We have this expression that “idle hands are the devil’s workshop.”  Change the word from “hands” to “money” and this principle can be used to explain the disaster area America has become since 1980.  Reagan freed the rich from high taxes while unleashing an all-out war on the unions that gave America its middle class.  The resulting excess “idle money” began the rich people’s war on the middle class.  Unlimited riches gave rise to unlimited campaign donations and right-wing institutes.  Four decades later, the 99% are increasingly being left behind by the top 1%, or more accurately, the top 0.1%.  Corruption of the American system has grown everywhere during these four decades of the rich not sharing America’s productivity growth with the rest of us 99%.  We have developed a working-class austerity “mean” mentality that supports this ongoing plundering of the middle class by the rich by using resentments to divide us into warring tribes.

Existing Structure

The prevalent divide of the bourgeoisie and the proletariat tends to favor a perspective of the top 20% versus the bottom 80%.  This is very misleading.  By focusing on the top 20% it can be shown certain things, like the fact that a college degree leads to significantly higher income.  That this top 20% can be shown to have a good lifestyle while 40% of America lives from paycheck to paycheck completely hides the fact that the top 1% has more than quadrupled their incomes relative to the rest of us 99% the last forty years.  The professional class is fooling themselves that they have done well, while even they have shown little improvement over forty years ago.  This new pattern, so drastically different than the forty years prior to 1980, is so entrenched that classic divide and conquer strategies like pitting the millennials against the boomers make sense to the millennials who have never known another America like the one the boomers grew up in.  They fail to see that the boomers did not take advantage of them, the rich did, the top 1% and the deluded 12% that think they are in the top 1% and the next 23% that expect to be 1% someday, engineered the election of Ronald Reagan to once and for all time put the rich back in charge by lowering the top tax rate from 70% to 28% and the capital gains tax rate lowered as well. Together with a union busting strategy and heel dragging on raising the minimum wage.  Further the working class has been led to believe that immigrants and affirmative action recipients are taking their jobs, when the rich and the lost growth from militarization of society into an empire has led to their disadvantage.  The automation excuse ignores the Germany example of how advanced manufacturing can replace automated jobs with new manufacturing and engineering jobs.  Just as manufacturing and productivity shrink with every military buildup, the overseas placement of jobs proceeds with the cost-free aid of military protection and financial investment enrichment of the rich 1% class.  The Wall Street Journal showed that all New York Stock Exchange stocks from 2000-2010 added 3 million jobs overseas, reducing 900,000 at home.  People are overpaid one third in weapons industries, whether they are blue collar, while collar or engineers, and top financial jobs helping the rich exploit the rest of us are extremely lucrative topping many best jobs lists.  The financial industry has grown to ten times its share of national profits since 1980.  Meanwhile, the auto industry and manufacturing in general have faded away, as the richest city in American moved from Detroit (autos) in 1960 to Boston (MIT top military research institution) in the Cold War eighties to the Washington DC area today where seven of the ten richest counties in America are now located.  Wall Street and the Pentagon enable our government to exploit the rest of us in the name of rising inequality going straight to the top 1%.  The red states resist, but they are shooting at the wrong enemy, unwittingly voting in the exploiters.  Ironically, the college degree and up educated are trying to put America back into balance, unfortunately with piecemeal improvements rather than a return to taxing the rich as in our “Glory Days” before 1980.

Billionaires

Always the rich and famous have been with us and influential.  Perhaps never more since the Gilded Age of the late Nineteenth century have the rich been in control of America.  Long have the rich been kingmakers.  Since the Citizens United decision of the Supreme Court in 2010 there has been a flood gate of big money into politics for both parties, a trend that started around 1980.  Ralph Nader wrote “Only the Super Rich Can Save Us” noting this trend favored the rich and corporate interests, but enough rich people existed that valued democracy enough to try and right the balance.  Lately, the internet and small donor only fundraising by candidates have been able to fight back with an unusual number of underfunded candidates beginning to win this way.  On the left, George Soros provides money, Warren Buffett has suggested the 30% minimum tax on the rich, and Jeff Bezos of Amazon has bought the Washington Post, and Tom Steyer has waged an aggressive impeachment campaign.  On the right, the Mercer family has funded Trump, while the Koch brothers have founded the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) and promoted right wing academic organizations on campuses across the country.  Sheldon Adelman is another major conservative donor.  The Bradley Foundation leads in right wing funding even over better-known Heritage and CATO.  Many of these right-wing institutions started in the seventies making the post-1980 changes possible.

Nobel Peace Prize

The economy draining properties of military spending, proven by the Reuschlein science, are perfect for filling the need to reduce armies, as called for in Nobel’s will.  As such several people have nominated me for the Nobel Peace Prize starting with 2016 and each subsequent year.  This is your chance to join them in the history that will be confidential for 50 years.  Many qualify including social science professors and associate professors, including law, history, and theology and others.  Also, members of national governments and legislatures and many others can nominate.  Deadline this year is midnight GMT time on 1-31-19, 5pm Chicago time.  But act immediately because they must reply to your application first before you can submit it.

Social Science Associate Professors May Nominate Reuschlein for Nobel Peace Prize:

https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/Nomination/Nominator-application-form

List of Empire Economics Special Findings by Reuschlein:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, January 29), “Idle Money Devil’s Workshop”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Idle-Money-Devil’s-Workshop,2019167038.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (pace well ahead of last year) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Need to Know About Empire

While conventional history is biographical and anecdotal and resists the concept of theory, Peace Economics finds that theory works very well, thank you.  Empire Economics is a new science that incorporates the new findings of Peace Economics.  Here are some of the key concepts of this new framework I consider a backbone to the jellyfish of conventional history, a backbone to the jellyfish of the social sciences.

Opportunity Cost

Military spending is like capital investment turned into political investment instead.  Resources used in military spending are like those used in capital investment or manufacturing or construction except that they are focused on political goals rather than economic goals.  Diverting those resources to a non-economic purpose represents an “opportunity cost” to society that permanently reduces the economic growth of that society by the amount of those resources used.  These economically misdirected research and capital resources may significantly enhance military capability and effectiveness instead of enhancing civilian economy capability and effectiveness.  This trade-off is the “opportunity cost” of military spending.  This is the principal reason empires eventually fall behind another emerging nation and lose their premier empire status.  The economic loss of military spending is immediately apparent in each year, it is measurable and direct in its impact year after year after year.  Alleged research benefits of military spending are minuscule compared to the lost capital investment growth.  Foreign military sales are also dwarfed by the large military expenditures and often subsidized by military foreign aid.

History Explained

Because of the opportunity cost principal, empire economies are gradually eroded until another low military spending emerging nation overtakes them economically.  Since usually the stronger economy wins wars, the changing economic fortunes eventually lead to adverse political consequences, like losing a hegemonic war.  This explains why the slogan “peace through strength” is terribly misleading.  The illusion is that more spent on the military makes a nation stronger, but the reality is that that additional spending weakens the nation year after year eroding the economic standing of the nation and exposing the nation to an increasing over time chance of losing a hegemonic war to one of the upstart nations.

Minds That Hate

The Beatles song “Revolution” says we all want to change the world, but if you talk about destruction lead by people with minds that hate, leave me out.  The framework of minds that hate becomes especially consequential in that empires create or react to enemies.  When a whole people view another people as their enemies, this is a corrosion of the mind into a mind that hates.  Killing another person is the worst that you can do to them.  When killing is the main occupation of troops, this has a corrosive effect on the persons who are the troops.  Even in World War II 70% of the troops never fired a shot in anger at another person.  It is extremely difficult to get one person to kill another.  This natural tendency was overcome in the fifties in America with training techniques that made it easier for troops to kill.  Murder rates rose after Vietnam in America and based on seventies eighties and nineties data, murder rates among America, Germany, Italy, and Japan were almost perfectly correlated with military spending as a percentage of the economy.  With the end of the Cold War both military spending and murder and crime rates dropped in the leading Western countries.  But they dropped further and faster in Europe as Europe demilitarized more that America did.

Social Decay Explained

In recent decades, the G7 countries have shown varying levels of social decay in proportion to the economic militarization of the country.  This association with military spending is so strong suggesting that the economic decay produced by military spending spills over into the social decay in statistics like mental health, infant mortality, diabetes, teenage births, prisoners, murders, and social mobility and income inequality.  The connection seems so direct that alternative explanations of the decay of empires such as moral decay leading to economic decay are clearly backwards, as causality shows the logic is the other way around.  The military spending leads to economic decay in year by year analysis, whereas morality is a long-term issue.  So, if morality or taking the money supply off the gold standard were causes rather than effects, how would that explain the annual variation of military spending (net of deficits) effect on the economy?  Clearly the military economic effect is primary.  Another issue that arises is the idea that empires will eventually fall over a long enough time period.  This assumes a kind of complacency comes over a population that leads to the fall, somewhat like the morality theory earlier discussed.  Again, this theory is defied by the reaction to military spending changes shown by the economy.  Both in the sixties and nineties in America, lowering military spending lead to great economic booms, hardly a sign of the so-called inevitable decline theory.  Military spending changes do change the economic and social structure of the country, suggesting that long term decline is not inevitable, but in fact is caused by the level of military spending.

Paramount Politics

Politically, leaders are afraid to be shown to be cowards.  This often translates into being in favor of the latest war suggestion regardless of the merits.  Oddly enough, this suggests that warlike leaders may be cowards, because it takes a great deal of political courage to oppose war.  But people assume the opposite, perhaps because of the sacrifice required in wartime seeming so noble and courageous, at least at the level of the individual soldier.  This combined with the reverse economics that those who command the most military resources are empowered the most in the political system, as huge military contracts are easily steered into the political districts of presidents and congressional leaders, and especially the committee members of the key military spending authorization and disbursement committees.  This runs completely counter to the national drain on the economy of military spending, so much and so visibly so that many come to believe that military spending can stimulate economic growth.  This belief does not look at the complete picture as manufacturing states lose jobs and income during military buildups.  The victim states and regions tend to blame themselves rather than recognize how the military scam works at the political level, rewarding those that seize the military resources away from the life-giving civilian economy.

Climate Change

Paradoxically, the oil loaded military aircraft (one third of all jet fuel is used by the military) and vehicles (M1 tank gets one mile for two gallons) people at the pentagon are concerned about how climate change is destabilizing the world and creating many warlike opportunities for local leaders to exploit droughts and other natural occurrences of so-called global weirding.  This has led to the pentagon scrutinizing my climate work and the CIA scrutinizing my military spending work.  As so often seems to be the case, the micro dominates the macro, as people are so overwhelmed by the big picture that they concentrate on the little picture.  This is a good tactic in passing controversial budgets.  Give in on a small issue and people will vote the huge budget through without too much scrutiny.  Just look at the hoopla over $5 billion dollars for a wall or other barrier in America.  Meanwhile, 800,000 federal employees will forgo about $2.5 billion in paychecks on January 12, 2019, as the issue drags on.  $5 billion could give universal pre-K education to all children in America.  Trade war, shutdown, and military could fuel recession.

Of 78 papers on my academia website, “Stages of Empire” is the 6th most popular:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, January 8), “Need to Know About Empire”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Need-to-Know-About-Empire,2019166287.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, A Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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