bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the tag “military history”

Empire Climate 32 Chapters

Overview        Here is the first draft of my 32 Chapter book table of contents with brief descriptions for each chapter followed by brief titles of the 216 press releases with their dates of release relevant to each chapter, listing in reverse chronological order.  The working book title is “Weather Wealth and Wars“ subtitled “Empire and Climate Economics”

  1. Introduction to Empire Theory A) Why Is USA an Empire? 11/5/2017; B) 12 Stages of Empire 9/29/2014; C) Military Terror Policing 8/17/2014; D) Peace Economics Matters 7/4/2014; E) Empire Concept 2/18/2014
  2. Social Decay of Empire. Empire societies are stagnant. As the frustration increases, win/lose “sideways” behaviors are rewarded.  Crime increases, with drugs and gambling sought out to paper over the pain.  Feudalism is the result, with the rise of militarism, the church, lords and serfs, at the expense of science and achievement.  A) Misogyny and Empire 9/10/2018; B) Militarism Distorts USA 8/14/2018; C) Income Inequality 4/29/2018; D) Military Economic Corollary 3/11/2017; E) Modern Empire 8/6/2016; F) Violent Society 7/23/2016; G) Football Baseball War5/28/2016; H) Peace Culture Economics 3/27/2015; I) Control Freak Society 3/14/2015; J) 12 Days of Empire 11/29/2014; K) 10 Empire Warps 10/12/2014; L) 10 Football Warlike 10/5/2014; M) Work and Empire 7/26/2014; N) Football and Empire 12/15/2013; O) Health and Crime 12/13/2013; P) Crime and Empire 12/5/2013
  3. Empire Trap. Empires go through several stages, rising due to natural defenses like oceans and a citizen military. Challenging the old empire in an epic battle gives one a taste of militarism.  Power and control prove seductive enough to develop a permanent military that drags the whole system down over time.                               A) Need to Know About Empire 1/8/2019; B) Born in The USA 12/14/2018; C) Demagoguery US 11/2/2018; D) Pride Comes Before Empire Fall 3/11/2018; E) CNN Top 5 All Empire 1/2/2016; F) Solstice Shopping 12/27/2014
  4. Historical Cases. American myths about World War II and the Great Depression allowed the myth of military Keynesianism to grow despite many examples of disastrous war spending in other nations.         A) How Empire Emerged 1/28/2018; B) Empire Explains 9/17/2016; C) War Decisions 9/9/2016; D) Deep Politics Iraq 6/4/2016; E) History 100 Years US 4/9/2016; F) CIA Presidents 1/23/2016; G) Modern Feudalism 2/21/2015; H) Religion Empire 1/3/2015; I) Hoover Great Depression 6/14/2014; J) Roosevelt 5/16/2014; K) Truman War 4/20/2014; L) Ukraine Crimea 3/4/2014
  5. International Military Economy. The resources used in the military budget are just like those of good producing industries like manufacturing. But there is no useful consumer product coming from the military.  So military spending depletes key capital and scientific talent normally devoted to growth industries.                     A) Technology Loser 12/21/2018; B) Military Economy Direct 3/6/2017; C) Nature of Military Spending 7/2/2016; D) Key Public Peace Economics 3/5/2016; E) War Occupy Economics 5/8/2015; F) Trade and the Military 1/17/2014;
  6. Regional Impact of Military Spending. All regions pay the military taxes, but only certain regions benefit from the spending, while other regions suffer recession from the tax drain. When the military is cut, the winners and losers switch places.  The low military regions boom and the high military regions suffer.                           A) Military in Society 12/28/2018; B) Military Geography 8/7/2017; C) Senate Power Republicans 7/31/2017; D) Rigged Electoral College 11/26/2016; E) Regional Military Economy 2/1/2015; F) Elections Plus 11/13/2014; G) Military States 4/26/2014; H) Key Midwest 1/21/2014;
  7. Military Spending Politics. Study of military build-ups and build-downs shows that the power positions in congress share the military budget with the president’s home state. All presidents elected during the Cold War came from high military spending states, thanks to fundraising and foreign focus advantages in those states.  A) Dictatorship Playbook 5/9/2019; B) You Think Its Okay 3/30/2019; C) Milwaukee Socials 3/26/2019; D) Power Corrupts 8/26/2018; E) Trump Russia Fire Fury 1/14/2018; F) Russia Hack Election 12/12/2016; G) Total War Politics 12/8/2016; H) Hillary Critics 2/27/2016; I) Walker Work Dignity 2/28/2015; J) Military Money Power 8/10/2014.
  8. Military Kondratiev Model. The model is based on military spending driving the economy down and deficits lifting the economy up. With those adjustments, the US, German, and world economy all follow a Kondratiev sine wave of 54 years, perfecting the fit every Juglar investment cycle of about nine years.                           A) Process Peace Economics 3/26/2016; B) Technical Peace Economics 3/12/2016; C) Create Economic Model 2/14/2015.
  9. Defense Strategy. Timing is everything. With major wars coming every fifty years or so, eroding the economy with too high military spending too soon and for too long will leave the nation weak for the next major war.   A) Reduce War System 4/2/2018; B) Peace Security Economy 1/1/2018; C) Military Defense 12/5/2015; D) Peace Hard Sell 11/7/2015; E) Leadership Ethics 9/18/2015; F) Fear of the Unknown 4/12/2015; G) Worthless War 1/23/2015; H) Paris Terror 1/8/2015; I) Wargames 4/5/2014.
  10. Power Elite. Many corporate directors sit on both a major bank board and a major military contractor board. This helps explain the unholy alliance between business and the military. The press has similar overlap with the intelligence agencies.          A) Idle Money Devil’s Workshop 1/29/2019; B) How Right Wing Controls USA 7/8/2018; C) Plot to Destroy America 7/3/2018; D) Conspiracy Theory 6/14/2018; E) Media Influence CIA 5/28/2018; F) CIA Live History 4/16/2016; G) National Security State 11/22/2015.
  11. Stock Market. Almost two months after the Republicans took over congress in 1994 you could have bought a cross section of major military stocks and still received an average gain of 70% eighteen months later.   A) Disruption of 8 Industries 5/22/2019; B) High Interest 11/11/2016; C) Class Warfare 10/18/2016; D) Trade Wars 6/18/2016; E) Banking and the Military 1/2/2014.
  12. Future. The future is fairly predictable. High military nations will lose share of the world economy and low military nations will gain share of the world economy.  The major nations experiences both during and after the Cold War are readily explained by their military spending levels.                A) Future President 4/23/2016; B) Useful Peace Economics 1/16/2016; C) Animal Peace Economics 12/28/2015; D) Economic Conversion 7/3/2015; E) Turkeys of the Arboretum 5/31/2015; F) Education Peace Economics 4/19/2015; G) World Governance 2/7/2015.
  13. Summary Broad. The expertise used and paradigm shifts required to understand this interdisciplinary approach to understanding America in the world today. A brief review of the major understandings employed in this approach.        A) Architecture Peace Economics 4/30/2019; B) Valuable Peace Economics 10/1/2018; C) Good Concepts Update 5/13/2018; D) Middle Year Empire Update 7/16/2017; E) Reuschlein World 6/13/2015; F) Capitalism or Empire 11/23/2014. G) Real Peace Economics or Not 6/7/2014
  14. Summary Possibilities. This section reviews how different interest groups ought to view and use this research with their constituencies. Also takes a look at how warming cooling and cycle theory affect the climate issues of today.   A) Spectrum Peace Economy 9/21/2018; B) Great Reads Make 5/6/2018; C) Constitutional Military Cost 3/4/2018; D) Terror Cost to Society 2/25/2018; E) Changing World Views 10/8/2017; F) Hottest Downloads 4/14/2017; G) Communicate Peace Economics 2/20/2016; H) Invade Next 2/13/2016; I) Empire Research Lost 1/25/2015; J) Record Month Peace Economics 1/14/2014; K) New Class Curriculum 1/7/2014; L) Misguided Liberals and Conservatives 1/5/2014.
  15. Military Economics Summary A) Findings Claims 11/16/2017; B) Wargamer to Peace 7/2/2017; C) Wargaming Gygax 3/31/2017; D) Peace Politics 1/9/2016; E) Peace Economics the Only Way 10/10/2015; F) Military Dis-Economics 11/3/2014; G) 10 Military Domestic Effects 9/15/2014; H) Proof of Peace Economics 7/12/2014; I) Next Generation Economics 12/30/2013.
  16. Introduction to Climate Theory                                                                                          A) Cycle Matters 8/3/2014; B) Cycle Crucial 2/24/2014
  17. Civilization and Climate History. The last three thousand years have shown a pattern of civilizations rising and falling with temperature changes in the Mediterranean Sea area. As temperatures rose more Northerly civilizations thrived and as temperatures fell more Southerly civilizations thrived.  A) Great Pivot Climate 2/19/2019; B) Egypt to Britain Climate Change 1/24/2014
  18. Evaporation and Water. Worldwide, 85% of solar radiation is used to evaporate water, higher over ocean and lower over land. This causes many complex land ocean interactions and makes the water cycle dominant over the temperature cycle. A) 10 Evaporation Impacts 9/22/2014; B) Evaporation 7/19/2014.
  19. World Weather. The largest land mass on the planet dominates the worlds weather in many ways, with half the world’s land in the Eurasia North Africa part of the Northern hemisphere. North America acts as a backwater to that Sahara Siberia dominated system.            A) Land Ocean Cycle 7/30/2016.
  20. Weather Cycle. With land three times as sensitive to temperature changes as the ocean, long cycles of major droughts, floods, volcanoes, earthquakes, hurricanes and blizzards can be documented in US weather. The Earth cycle pattern and causes are discussed.    A) Hurricane Planet Dynamics 9/10/2017; B) Texas Harvey 8/27/2017; C) Prediction 8/26/2014; D) Hurricane Climate Cycle 2/7/2014; E) Philippines Typhoon 11/12/2013; F) Typhoon Haiyan 11/11/2013.
  21. World Correlations. Various regions of the globe respond to other regions as the world goes through the long cycle. We look in greater detail into the oddities of world weather systems under changing circumstances.                                                  A) Earth Cycle 3/21/2014; B) Cold Winter 2/14/2014.
  22. Volcanoes. Major volcanoes cool the earth for two or three years after eruption. Warming spurts can set the stage for major eruptions and carbon dioxide releases by major volcanoes can be very significant.           A) Nepal Chile 4/28/2015; B) Chile Volcano 4/24/2015.
  23. Climate and the Economy. Various research and observations about the relationship between warming and poor economies and cooling and strong economies. Looking at personal, worldwide, and United States models of this phenomena. A) 10 Ways Heat Hurts 9/8/2014; B) Climate and Economics 12/3/2013.
  24. Kondratiev Cycle. Looking at the climate, generational theory, and innovation models of explanation for the long cycle. Also looking at population, life cycle, and skepticism about these models. A) Kondratiev Cycle 2/9/2014
  25. Economic Cycle. Looking at the various markers of economic extremes that support the theory of a long cycle in economics. Including growth rates, inflation, interest rates, stock market crashes, and unemployment.                                                A) History Repeats 3/20/2014
  26. War Cycle. Examines the record, especially for American wars, and reasons to explain the regularity of the war cycle. Even the irregularities and lesser wars tend to support certain common-sense notions.                                                                          A) Rights Climate Cycle 10/30/2018; B) Demonization Fuels Military 4/8/2018; C) Gun Control March 3/26/2018; D) Violence Cycle 11/29/2015; E) Baltimore Riot 5/2/2015; F) Gestalt 1961-2015 1/17/2015; G) 10 Ferguson Jury Mistakes 12/6/2014; H) War Cycle 11/16/2014; I) Democracy Ukraine US 9/1/2014; J) Civil Rights 3/29/2014; K) Cold Year Wars 12/19/2013.
  27. Greenhouse Effect. Examines the global warming and US warming records and various theories of manmade impacts, including the emerging consensus of the IPCC report in February 2007.            A) Climate Theory Clarified 7/27/2018
  28. Green Economy. How are the Kyoto Treaties and business reactions leading the world into the necessary changes. What are the trends in these changes?
  29. Warming Summary; A) Three Cycles Or One 9/17/2017; B) Weather Wealth Wars 1/11/2017; C) 15 Year Pause 4/12/2014.
  30. Scientific Revolution; A) Foreign Domestic Difference 4/23/2019; B) Interdisciplinary Insights 1/21/2018; C) Scientific Methods Vary 12/10/2017; D) Teaching Peace Econ 9/4/2017; E) Math Reductio Ad Absurdum 7/9/2017; F) Peace Science 1/21/2017; G) Many Go Wrong 9/24/2016; H) Paradigm Shifts Peace Economics 4/30/2016; I) Scientific Revolutions 4/2/2016; J) Shoulders of Giants 10/31/2015; K) First Gandhi 10/17/2015; L) Difficulty Along Way 6/20/2015; M) Economic Engineering 6/5/2015; N) Macro Micro 4/4/2015; O) 10 Scientific Revolution Facts 12/21/2014; P) 10 How Research Works 10/19/2014; Q) Reputation 8/24/2014; R) Peace Economics: How I Did It 6/21/2014; S) Numbers Words 1/30/2014; T) Peace Economics Peace Studies 1/9/2014.
  31. Nobel Peace Prize; A) Systemic Review 2/26/2019; B) Follow Norwegians 10/8/2018; C) Nobel Peace Year 10/1/2017; D) Odds on Nobel Prize 6/12/2017; E) Biography Peace 1/28/2017; F) Econ Perversion 12/29/2016; G) Nobel Prize Path 12/16/2016; H) Nobel Prize Letter 10/5/2016; I) Nobel Prize Watch 3/19/2016; J) Response Norway 2/6/2016; K) Nobel Peace Nominee 1/27/2016; L) 10 Nobel Pathways 10/25/2014.
  32. Biography; A) Great Gygax, Maybe Britain 6/18/2017; B) Congratulations 5/22/2017; C) Game Master Gygax 5/14/2017; D) Telos Institute 5/5/2017; E) Creative Life 4/22/2017; F) Nerd Number One 3/18/2017; G) Special Award   9/2/2016; H) Denmark Hamlet 8/20/2016; I) Peace Respect 1/31/2016; J) Learn in Japan 9/5/2015; K) Hiroshima Feature 7/18/2015; L) Film Made Peace Economics 6/27/2015; M) Nader Yale Data 5/24/2015; N) Top 10 Reasons for Radio Host 11/5/2014; O) Global Citizen Nomination 6/28/2014; P) Wargamer to Doctor Peace 5/30/2014; Q) Nashville 5/25/2014; R) Eugene Politician 5/14/2014; S) Doctorate 5/9/2014; T) No Ethanol 5/2/2014; U) Peace Economics 1st Course 3/18/2014; V) Peace Economics First Book 3/14/2014; W) How Peace Economics Starts 3/8/2014; X) Grandpa Markham Horicon Marsh 3/1/2014; Y) Peace Songs 1/12/2014; Z) Dr. Robert Reuschlein 10/10/2013.

For additional information about this see:

https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages_2015

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 29), “Empire Climate 32 Chapters” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Empire-Climate-32-Chapters,2019181359.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 60 in 8 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019. Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Disruption of 8 Industries

Overview

Adoption of the new Reuschlein sciences of economics, empire theory, and the global warming cycle will change everything, especially disrupting certain industries and many fields.  Here is a partial list.

Economic Development

Proofs over many decades, the Cold War, the twentieth century, and now the twenty-first century 9-11 military buildup, Great Recession, and Obama Trump recovery show continuous proof that military spending increases hurt manufacturing, productivity, capital investment, and economic and jobs growth rates precisely and in every situation.  Bottom line research and capital resources of a nation can be used to grow the economy and produce goods or be diverted into power projection through military spending, but the choice is binary, one avenue leads to economic growth and the other leads to lost manufacturing jobs transferred over to the defense service “make work” economy instead to give a false impression of economic growth.  In fact, the “make work” economy depresses manufacturing states in order to give pseudo-growth to military spending states, as research and capital are merely redeployed among the states using the federal budget process.  The result is re-arranged economic growth in an atmosphere of overall reduced growth.  This pattern can be supplemented by deficit or tax cut economic growth to camouflage or offset the negative military economy effect.  Changes in deficit minus military change the economic growth rate.  Measured in economic growth rate, jobs growth rate, or unemployment rate change all work about the same, relative to trend.

Economic Prediction

The uncanny accuracy long term of the Reuschlein economic model shows up increasingly clearly over time, as annual poor accuracy becomes more accurate like the decade long Juglar cycle accuracy over time.  The in between years in a nine-year Juglar investment cycle show an 80% reduction in volatility from the twenties to the eighties as industries gradually conquer the inventory recessions so common before 1980.  Now recessions since 1982 in America have followed the nine-year Juglar cycle, 1982, 1991, 2001, and 2009.  Trade war might give the next recession in 2020, just as trade war gave us the Great Depression in the early thirties.  Withdrawal from Iraq military cuts lead to unemployment rate reductions in the five years from 2011 to 2015 at almost twice the rate of the military buildup years from 2016 to 2018.  The current formula looks like accuracy is now coming in the annual year by year situation, not just in the decade long Juglar cycle.  The new short-term formula:  deficits add to economic growth and military spending reduces economic growth, dollar for dollar.

Political Prediction   

Because there is nothing in the federal government budget like military spending.  It is the largest category of expense in the authorized budget, about half of the total.  Most of the rest of the budget is entitlements or otherwise relatively fixed in distribution among the states.  During the Cold War 80% of the variation of per capita federal spending in each state was caused by the military spending differences, with about half the states getting half the national average of military spending per capita, and the other half getting 150% of the national average for the military.  This makes those who control the military budget the most powerful people in congress, along with the president.  These people not only dominate the leadership positions in congress (80% from high military states and 20% from low military states, but they also dominate the presidential primaries and general election, such that high military state candidates won all eleven Cold War elections and the seven major party nominees from low military spending states all lost.  Post Cold War the two Democratic presidents came from CIA backgrounds and low military spending states.  Military research funding is in the top three states of California, Massachusetts, and North Carolina, with Silicon Valley, Route 128, and Research Triangle respectively.  California has four times that of the other two.  Post Cold War the top research institution went from MIT to Johns Hopkins, from weapons to foreign policy, with the increase in the CIA noted in the elected presidents.

Social Mobility Prediction   

Large military spending will devastate manufacturing over time, changing a technology-oriented economy (manufacturing) into a services-oriented economy (financial and defense).  This state of empire created also dries up social mobility creating a class-based society.  I notice this all the time as increasingly elites from media, Hollywood, and government are the sons and daughters of previous elites.  High growth encourages diversity and low growth (military empire) encourages classism and nepotism.  Markets are fluid, political command is rigid.

National Defense Strategy

The military economic effect is so dominant in economics that those nations that overdo military defense will pay a very heavy price in the long run.  Minimizing your defense maximizes your growth and maximizes great power longevity.  The heavy-handed empire defense will always backfire in the long run.  Lightweight English bows and arrows defeated the heavy armored French in the battle of Agincourt.  Land armies are always much more expensive than navies, because they are essential for all land powers.  Sea powers are protected from land armies by large bodies of water, like the English Channel, or the Japan Sea, or America’s two oceans, hence they can defend more cheaply.

Investment Predictions

Changes in the military budget affect the low military inland Great Lakes area manufacturing states even more than their direct effect on military states, about two to four times as much.  But because this effect is not obvious, the inland manufacturing states are largely at the mercy of the coastal military states.  Because of the preference for military spending in the Republican party and for domestic spending in the Democratic party, changes in political parties controlling congress will have profound changes in regional economies.  This was so overlooked in 1994 that you could have waited two months to invest in defense stocks and still made a 70% profit a year and a half later.  Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio are four of the top five manufacturing states that will boom the next time military spending goes down.  California, Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia, and Arizona are traditional high military spending states that boom during military buildups.  In the four decades since the top tax rate was dropped 60% by Reagan in 1981-1984, banks have grown their relative share of the economy ten-fold and the top 1% income earners have quadrupled their share of national income while the lower 99% have flat lined.  All these effects are predictable outcomes of empire economics.

Climate Change Predictions

The Greenhouse Effect is all the rage while we ignore the evaporation effect.  Modifying Greenhouse predictions with the evaporation effect 54-year cycle and we greatly increase temperature change prediction accuracy.  Current climate change estimates are being underestimated because we are in the cooling half of the cycle from 1998 to 2025.  Climate change will dramatically accelerate after 2025, catching the experts by surprise.

Hurricane Predictions

Every other generation floods and droughts are regionally predictable, as well as blizzards.  Major volcanoes tend to come from the tropical area where the Indian and Pacific Oceans meet.  But the greatest opportunities for cyclic prediction of natural events are in the hurricane area.  New Orleans, Miami, North Carolina, and New York each have their own unique regional cyclic pattern.  These repeat mostly on a 54-year cycle basis plus or minus a couple years.  However, North Carolina and Miami have 27-year repetitions give or take a year or two.  Regularization of this approach could give greater reliability for protection of these communities.

The Seventeen Findings of Peace Economic Theories:  https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 22), “Disruption of 8 Industries” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Disruption-of-8-Industries,2019181131.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 57 in 8 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.        Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Architecture Peace Economy

Putting Dominoes in Order

The first domino of military spending shows a perfect inverse relationship with manufacturing productivity growth for the seven largest industrialized capitalist country economies during the Cold War.  The second domino uses capital investment versus military spending from 1960-80, and perfects for the four largest NATO economies plus Sweden.  One finding says military spending is lost manufacturing and the other says it is lost capital investment.  That is virtually the same message when you understand that most capital investment goes into manufacturing.  That the manufacturing is stronger and broader suggest a variability in financial investment.  The third domino is federal government deficit with the large-scale experiment of World War Two 1941-48 proving the basic point that deficits lift the economy as much as military spending depresses the economy.

Connections to First Domino

The first domino of military spending and the economy is so stunning that the next thing to do is to put the idea to the test as many ways and in as many major academic fields as possible.  The first major test was to build an accurate long-term model in the United States economy.  This was easily the toughest first big test and took about six months of work with hundred-year long data sets of economic statistics including dozens of various multi-year averaging’s to find the turning points in history.  The fourth domino is from the obvious economic boom of the fifties and sixties, the Kondratiev Wave of long-term booms and busts.  Detailed modeling using a 54 year cycle showed annual variability on domino one (manufacturing productivity growth rate) net of domino three (deficit).  Then the next stunner was how the variability disappeared every nine or so years into perfection again.  This was domino five, the Juglar investment cycle of 8-10 years.  The basic model was also roughly confirmed in partial modeling on the German and world economies.

Foreign Policy Connections

Foreign policy is built around the idea that you need a strong economy and military to be a dominant power in the world.  But most social science modeling mistakenly assumes a strong military can lead to a strong economy.  The first domino shows this is a false assumption.  Then I devoted a chapter in my first book Peace Economics (1986) to studying the implications of the economy versus military power trade-off, producing two curves, one arithmetic and one geometric to help decide the proper trade-offs for short term and long-term wars.  The key point is the new Reuschlein model and information points to a “necessary substantial reduction in armies” required of all countries that wish to defend their country well in the coming decades before and during the next war.  This domino includes an assessment of when major wars occur, which brings us back to the fourth domino of the Kondratiev Wave 54-year cycle between major wars which come about 18 years after second biggest wars of a cycle.  This is domino six the change in defense strategy all nations must undergo with the new reality.

Domestic Connections and the Empire Model

Domino seven is the relationship between the military and politics.  The more military per capita of a home state, the more powerful is the politician representing that state.  In all eleven elections of the Cold War, Presidents came from home states in the high military spending half of America.  This bias looks about 80% true for leading political positions like congressional leadership, cabinet members, and Supreme Court appointees.  Domino eight is the relationship between the military budget and the local state and regional economies.  Domestically military spending merely transfers resources between the manufacturing heavy states and the military spending heavy states.  Overall military buildups depress manufacturing jobs and investments to transfer those productive resources into national defense services.  Domino nine is the relationship between military spending and murder and crime rates.  As the economy goes down crime goes up and real estate markets get corrupted leading to financial crises.  Domino ten is the connection between the military and income inequality, low social mobility, low mental health, high teen birthrates, high obesity, and the many other social indicators (such as escapism, gambling and drugs) of a declining empire.  Declining empires are frustrating places for the citizens.  Challenger nations rise on low military spending and after they become empires, decline on high military spending.

Environmental Connections and Global Warming Cycle

Domino eleven come from a three-year effort (1988-1991) to connect the 54-year cycle to its natural roots.  After endlessly poring over 16 century long data sets of the major sections of the planet Earth, I gradually saw how it all fit together in a great pattern.  27 years of warming weakens the economies of the world followed by 27 years of cooling boosting the economies of the world.  Major volcanoes, blizzards, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and wars and social upheavals like riots and social movements all follow the great cycle in its natural, economic, and political dimensions.  Evaporation slows the warming process such that oceans are the coolest and lands warm three times faster than oceans before all the feedback loops kick in creating the cycle.  Droughts peak in the last decade of the warming phase followed by a decade of heavy floods in the first decade of the cooling phase.  2025 is the end of the current cooling (slower warming) phase and global warming will redouble its efforts after that year.  Look out!  Hurricane Sandy (2012) led to a stunning confirmation of the accuracy of this cycle.

Presentation at the American Association of Geographers 4-7-19:

https://www.academia.edu/38937971/Military_Geography_16ppt_on_2_pages_4-7-19

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, April 30), “Architecture Peace Economy” Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Architecture-Peace-Economy,2019180316.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 49 in 7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Foreign Domestic Difference

Separating Foreign and Domestic Policy

The third element (Chapter 4 Territorial States) in “Geopolitics” textbook by John Agnew 1998-2003, makes a common assumption in the social sciences that foreign affairs and domestic policy can safely be considered separate.  Separating the two is impossible under the Peace Economics theory.  When the single most important obstruction to economic growth is military spending, all foreign policy must choose between a strong domestic economy and strong projection of power internationally.  That is the fundamental flaw in all empires, leading to the decline of empires in the long run.  Coercion may have some positive feedbacks in the short run and being at the top may attract talent from all over the world, but high military spending will corrupt the economy and drive up crime and corruption and create an unhealthy society (what I call empire decay) that will stall progress across the board in the long run.  Military spending is at the heart of both the domestic and foreign policy situations.

 

Peace Dividend  

Many people believe and even teach that the United States did not experience a “Peace Dividend” after the end of the Cold War.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  It’s true that the shift came over time, with the military budget from 1985 to 1999 pretty much level at $250 billion a year.  But a detailed look shows that inflation was high in the beginning of that period and low at the end.  The percent of GDP for the military was 6.5% at the start and 2.9% by the end of that period, with tremendous prosperity especially in the low military industrial heartland Great Lakes states of the North Central area known as the Midwest.  National economic growth rates doubled (Peace Dividend) from the Reagan military buildup eighties to the post-Cold War nineties, but regionally the Bi-Coastal economy (Atlantic Seaboard plus California) showed much less change:  leading the way in the low growth eighties, thanks to 80% of the military buildup going there, and trailing the low military high manufacturing states of the Big Ten football conference in the nineties boom.  Only the third great economic force, the Kondratiev Wave of technology and generational growth, made both the boom and balanced budgets possible by the end of the nineties, only to be squandered by the Iraq War.  California had four times the military research of any other state in the eighties but is now just an average military spending state.  California has America’s two main ideas industries, Silicon Valley and Hollywood and a huge young talent migration from the East.  Still as seven of the ten wealthiest counties in America are in the greater Washington DC area, power and wealth have gravitated to the most militarize area of America over the decades.  Not knowing what causes what allows cases to be made for many false and misleading half-baked theories. The patient thoroughness of an engineer has unearthed the meaningful verities in economics and the global warming cycle.

 

Corruptions of Empire  

Choose your enemies well, for soon you will be like them.  If Islamic extremists have gone off the deep end, so too has American domestic and foreign politics under Trump.  Marginal issues rise like illegal immigration that had been at record lows until the recent turmoil in Central America.  Focusing on taking sides in the Shia Sunni struggles looks small minded for the leading superpower as are the endless faceless drone campaigns across the Muslim world.  Stirring up chaos and meddling everywhere inevitably will boomerang.  The endless hate campaign of the president’s twitter storms is wearing people out across America.  The president’s tirades against the press, legal institutions, truth, law, and anyone with a different opinion look like the moves of a third world dictator, not the leader of a great democracy.  The president has abandoned his many pledges to the middle class and installed a swamp region of favoritism for the rich and powerful.  Now the Mueller report comes out with a shocking list of endless misbehavior.  Corruption has become the norm thanks to the conman from New York.  The title of one of the many books is “Everything Trump Touches Dies.”  Comparisons with Caligula, the crazy emperor of Rome, seem to fit so well.

 

Seventeen great conclusions of the Reuschlein Theories:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, April 23), “Foreign Domestic Difference” Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Foreign-Domestic-Difference,2019180102.aspx

 

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 47 in 7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Great Pivot Climate History

Mackinder’s 1904 concept of the “Great Pivot of History” deepens when you add climate change to the big picture.  The Mediterranean world and probably the whole world have undergone several great shifts of temperature in the last 3200 years or even longer.  Many great civilizations have risen and fallen in accordance with these great temperature changes.  The geography of the “Great Pivot” has played a role in this process.  When you look at a map of the world, massive mountain ranges separate China and India from the great plains of the “Great Pivot” region of North Central and North West Asia.  The “Great Pivot” area is essentially the region of Asian Russia from the thin straight North South strand of the Ural Mountains that divide Europe from Asia to this huge uneven bank of Asian mountains and plateaus running through East Siberia into Tibet and the Himalayas.  This great wall separates heavily populated South Asia from less populated North Asia and Siberia.  This “Great Pivot” great plains area is a low land area between populated Europe and populated Asia.

Climate Changes Ancient Civilizations

Western civilization starts with Mesopotamia followed by Egypt as the Earth hits a low temperature point around 1200 BC.  This first cooling gives Egypt a temperature advantage over Mesopotamia as the ideal temperature zone of humankind moves South.   The next great warming takes 1400 years to reach a peak in 200 AD.  During this time first Greece and later Rome emerge.  Athens, Greece is 8 degrees North of Cairo, Egypt.  Greek civilization becomes dominant from 800 BC to 600 BC.  Rome, Italy is 4 degrees further North from Athens.  So as the warming continues, first Greece reaches its ideal temperature zone then Rome.  Rome became a republic in defeated Carthage in 146 BC becoming an empire in 27 AD until its peak in 117 AD.  Suddenly the Earth cools after 200 AD reaching a coldest year about 450 AD and the collapse of the Western Roman Empire is 476 AD.  This is probably due to the temperature change forcing a domino effect on many barbaric tribes starting out of the “Great Pivot” and eventually (several tribes later) seeking warmer grounds like the Mediterranean Sea area occupied by the Roman Empire.  If your look at a topographic map of Eurasia, the mountains wall off the Far East at an angle and drive populations retreating from the cold towards the Southwest area around Rome.  Except for the brief period of Alexander the Great (336-323 BC), Greece faces somewhat developed cultures to its East and is limited in its expansion possibilities.  Rome has more ideal positioning in the center of the Mediterranean world and expands to fill that void and become a great and lasting empire, thanks to its geography.  Rome is centrally located in the Italian peninsula with weak rivals, unlike the Sparta Athens rivalry in Greece, hence it more easily moves to dominate its neighborhood in the early years, then wins the Punic wars with Carthage to become an empire.

European Pre-Modern Age

The next great temperature rise peaks around 1000 AD bringing with it the age of the Vikings dominating coastal Northern Europe, as North Europe reaches an ideal temperature zone.  The Mongol leader Genghis Khan established the greatest contiguous empire ever by taking over North Eurasia just after his death in 1227 AD, some 200 years after this warming peak.  Even Greenland was colonized by Vikings with the warming.  The next cooling made Greenland largely uninhabitable and the settlers were last heard from in 1406 AD.  That cooling bottoms out about 1580 AD as the ideal temperature zone moves South leading to the world explorations of the Southern European nations of Spain and Portugal.  When the current rise began, the ideal temperature zone moved North again.  After three decades of great corn growing weather in Britain, around 1750 AD, the leisure that resulted from the agricultural abundance lead to the industrial revolution, as trains brought coal and steel production together.  This was about three quarters of the way up to the next upper bound of the 3000-year Mediterranean area temperature cycle of a 16-degree Fahrenheit swing from top to bottom four times from 1200 BC to 1580 AD. This was reported by the Australian journalist James Burke in a Maryland Public TV “Global Warming” two hour broadcast in 1986.  This sets the stage for the modern era of the Greenhouse Effect of carbon dioxide warming, which could exceed the expected 4-degree Fahrenheit warming above the Lancashire England 1750 AD temperature.  We are now within one or two degrees of the upper bound of this long cycle, with no way of knowing whether we will exceed this range this time.  Will the new warming make places like Russia, Canada, and Scandinavia the next group of dominant countries?  Only time will tell.  The scale of current events are epic, on the scale of the comings and goings of ice ages.

To read a “three times as long” detailed account of these climate changes:

https://www.academia.edu/4485586/CIVILIZATION_Changes_with_Climate_4p._RE_1999

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, February 19), “Great Pivot Climate History”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Great-Pivot-Climate-History,2019177785.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (pace well ahead of last year) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Need to Know About Empire

While conventional history is biographical and anecdotal and resists the concept of theory, Peace Economics finds that theory works very well, thank you.  Empire Economics is a new science that incorporates the new findings of Peace Economics.  Here are some of the key concepts of this new framework I consider a backbone to the jellyfish of conventional history, a backbone to the jellyfish of the social sciences.

Opportunity Cost

Military spending is like capital investment turned into political investment instead.  Resources used in military spending are like those used in capital investment or manufacturing or construction except that they are focused on political goals rather than economic goals.  Diverting those resources to a non-economic purpose represents an “opportunity cost” to society that permanently reduces the economic growth of that society by the amount of those resources used.  These economically misdirected research and capital resources may significantly enhance military capability and effectiveness instead of enhancing civilian economy capability and effectiveness.  This trade-off is the “opportunity cost” of military spending.  This is the principal reason empires eventually fall behind another emerging nation and lose their premier empire status.  The economic loss of military spending is immediately apparent in each year, it is measurable and direct in its impact year after year after year.  Alleged research benefits of military spending are minuscule compared to the lost capital investment growth.  Foreign military sales are also dwarfed by the large military expenditures and often subsidized by military foreign aid.

History Explained

Because of the opportunity cost principal, empire economies are gradually eroded until another low military spending emerging nation overtakes them economically.  Since usually the stronger economy wins wars, the changing economic fortunes eventually lead to adverse political consequences, like losing a hegemonic war.  This explains why the slogan “peace through strength” is terribly misleading.  The illusion is that more spent on the military makes a nation stronger, but the reality is that that additional spending weakens the nation year after year eroding the economic standing of the nation and exposing the nation to an increasing over time chance of losing a hegemonic war to one of the upstart nations.

Minds That Hate

The Beatles song “Revolution” says we all want to change the world, but if you talk about destruction lead by people with minds that hate, leave me out.  The framework of minds that hate becomes especially consequential in that empires create or react to enemies.  When a whole people view another people as their enemies, this is a corrosion of the mind into a mind that hates.  Killing another person is the worst that you can do to them.  When killing is the main occupation of troops, this has a corrosive effect on the persons who are the troops.  Even in World War II 70% of the troops never fired a shot in anger at another person.  It is extremely difficult to get one person to kill another.  This natural tendency was overcome in the fifties in America with training techniques that made it easier for troops to kill.  Murder rates rose after Vietnam in America and based on seventies eighties and nineties data, murder rates among America, Germany, Italy, and Japan were almost perfectly correlated with military spending as a percentage of the economy.  With the end of the Cold War both military spending and murder and crime rates dropped in the leading Western countries.  But they dropped further and faster in Europe as Europe demilitarized more that America did.

Social Decay Explained

In recent decades, the G7 countries have shown varying levels of social decay in proportion to the economic militarization of the country.  This association with military spending is so strong suggesting that the economic decay produced by military spending spills over into the social decay in statistics like mental health, infant mortality, diabetes, teenage births, prisoners, murders, and social mobility and income inequality.  The connection seems so direct that alternative explanations of the decay of empires such as moral decay leading to economic decay are clearly backwards, as causality shows the logic is the other way around.  The military spending leads to economic decay in year by year analysis, whereas morality is a long-term issue.  So, if morality or taking the money supply off the gold standard were causes rather than effects, how would that explain the annual variation of military spending (net of deficits) effect on the economy?  Clearly the military economic effect is primary.  Another issue that arises is the idea that empires will eventually fall over a long enough time period.  This assumes a kind of complacency comes over a population that leads to the fall, somewhat like the morality theory earlier discussed.  Again, this theory is defied by the reaction to military spending changes shown by the economy.  Both in the sixties and nineties in America, lowering military spending lead to great economic booms, hardly a sign of the so-called inevitable decline theory.  Military spending changes do change the economic and social structure of the country, suggesting that long term decline is not inevitable, but in fact is caused by the level of military spending.

Paramount Politics

Politically, leaders are afraid to be shown to be cowards.  This often translates into being in favor of the latest war suggestion regardless of the merits.  Oddly enough, this suggests that warlike leaders may be cowards, because it takes a great deal of political courage to oppose war.  But people assume the opposite, perhaps because of the sacrifice required in wartime seeming so noble and courageous, at least at the level of the individual soldier.  This combined with the reverse economics that those who command the most military resources are empowered the most in the political system, as huge military contracts are easily steered into the political districts of presidents and congressional leaders, and especially the committee members of the key military spending authorization and disbursement committees.  This runs completely counter to the national drain on the economy of military spending, so much and so visibly so that many come to believe that military spending can stimulate economic growth.  This belief does not look at the complete picture as manufacturing states lose jobs and income during military buildups.  The victim states and regions tend to blame themselves rather than recognize how the military scam works at the political level, rewarding those that seize the military resources away from the life-giving civilian economy.

Climate Change

Paradoxically, the oil loaded military aircraft (one third of all jet fuel is used by the military) and vehicles (M1 tank gets one mile for two gallons) people at the pentagon are concerned about how climate change is destabilizing the world and creating many warlike opportunities for local leaders to exploit droughts and other natural occurrences of so-called global weirding.  This has led to the pentagon scrutinizing my climate work and the CIA scrutinizing my military spending work.  As so often seems to be the case, the micro dominates the macro, as people are so overwhelmed by the big picture that they concentrate on the little picture.  This is a good tactic in passing controversial budgets.  Give in on a small issue and people will vote the huge budget through without too much scrutiny.  Just look at the hoopla over $5 billion dollars for a wall or other barrier in America.  Meanwhile, 800,000 federal employees will forgo about $2.5 billion in paychecks on January 12, 2019, as the issue drags on.  $5 billion could give universal pre-K education to all children in America.  Trade war, shutdown, and military could fuel recession.

Of 78 papers on my academia website, “Stages of Empire” is the 6th most popular:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, January 8), “Need to Know About Empire”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Need-to-Know-About-Empire,2019166287.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, A Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Technology Loser: Military

Many believe that military spending is good for the economy.  Nothing could be further from the truth.   Comprehensive, thorough, and painstaking research and modeling over the decades shows the general wisdom to be very false.

General Economic Wisdom

Manufacturing with technology growth is a better path to prosperity than resource-based economies.  Military spending absorbs but only partially contributes to market-based and market-tested technology growth.  Military spending is power oriented rather than achievement oriented.  In fact, resource-based economies tend to be militaristic, mercantilist, and corrupt with limited growth potential.  Two good examples of this today are Russia and Saudi Arabia, both of whom have leaders willing to kill journalists and political opponents to keep their power, and feel free to use their military power to achieve national objectives.  High levels of military spending correlate well with corruption and crime, as even America has killed muckraking journalists Michael Hastings and Gary Webb, who dared to take on the military industrial complex directly.  Militaristic America has a very low rating compared to other G7 countries by Reporters Without Borders, especially on so-called national security issues.

Displaces Economic Manufacturing

Opportunity Cost theory explains why diverting key resources away from the civilian based production cycle leads economies into stagnation.  Resources devoted to power politics are diverted from the normal focus on economic growth of the general civilian economy.  What you aim at is what you get.  The double negative of the destruction of your enemy is still a negative result, not a positive result, a destruction, not a construction.  The military achieves political ends, not economic ends.  Locally it is a good substitute for manufacturing, bringing money into a community, but the source of that money comes from other communities competing in the economic market place, sinking or swimming as products are either improved or become obsolete.  Manufacturing, construction, agriculture, and mining all suffer paying the taxes to support the military sector.  And these vital economic industries also suffer competition for talent with the overpaid engineers, managers, and workers in the military industry.  The whole economy suffers loss of capital investment and manufacturing productivity growth rate when there is a military buildup and prospers when there is a military builddown.  This constant negative of the military economy is easily offset with deficit spending, especially in wartime.  In recent decades in America, ever since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have created these deficits by pairing military buildups with tax cuts.  This has made the national debt grow dramatically over this period.

Models Confirm the Story

Modeling of the military economy shows essentially no economic growth results from that part of the economy.  Key resources like capital investment, scientists, and engineers all lead to economic growth in the normal economy, unless they are diverted to the military economy where their growth potential is stymied by the constraints of the military mission.  Manufacturing is turned into a service in the military sector losing almost all its economic growth potential in exchange for devotion to the national defense.  The modeling and studies clearly show the military changes drive changes in the economy.  This shows up in both international comparisons and regional comparisons within a country.  This leads to an accurate new model of long-term economic growth in the United States and Germany.  Thirteen correlations document how this applies to politics and the social decay of empires, even climate change.  Those thirteen correlations include eight that are 99% of a perfect fit and average 97% for all thirteen.  Combined, all these findings lead to new scientifically accurate models of economics and climate change.

Dead End Technology

Technology designed under conditions of secrecy and for too military specific purposes loses two thirds of its usefulness for the civilian economy.  Often such technology is driven to suit the political purposes of congressional committee chairs, party leaders, and the president.  These power figures usually serve the interests of their home state military industries and bases.  The purposes of power usually triumph over true merit-based achievement.  Having the best proposals for new weapons systems is less important than having the political clout of a home state’s congressional and presidential delegation.  Only ten percent of the military budget is for research, ninety percent is for hardware, supplies, troops, and the pentagon civilian bureaucracy.  Thus 90% of the military budget acts as inert economic filler for local economies, while most of the research component 10% rarely produces duo use products to use in the civilian economy.

Two Pages showing the 17 major claims of the Peace Economics research:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, December 21), “Technology Loser:  Military”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Technology-Loser:-Military,2018165803.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Born in the United States

Listening to various music on the plane back to America from Norway, Bruce Springsteen’s album “Born in the USA” inspired this Peace Economics approach to these song titles.

Working on the Highway

This song reminds me of the story of American on the rise.  United by the Civil War and ever expanding Westward, America started the twentieth century a rising industrial power with the largest economy in the world.  Frederick Taylor, inventing industrial engineering in the age of railroads in the 1890s, found out that productivity for laying railroads peaked at 64 degrees Fahrenheit.  As temperatures increase above that level proportionately less work gets done.  This shows how capital accumulation and the economy improves slightly with slightly lower temperatures or slows down slightly with slightly higher temperatures, as most capital, economic progress, and infrastructure starts with construction.  A century of data confirms these patterns.

 

Glory Days

This song about those that peaked in high school reminds me about America’s fixation with World War II (WWII) and the so-called Greatest Generation.  Yes, the Marshall Plan was infinitely better than the 1919 Versailles treaty which gave us WWII.  But even the Marshall Plan only supplied 10% of the internally generated capital in Japan and Germany in the 1950s.  Important startup capital, but low military spending was the real secret ingredient that gave both Japan and Germany average economic growth rates over 8% for the decade of the fifties.  They both thank America for democracy, especially the more modern parliamentary type, including Japan’s antiwar constitution and Germany’s equal representation with owners for workers on corporate boards.  Thanks America.  The military burdens of empire have held America back ever since WWII, hence the fixation with those glory days of the so-called good war.  Most wars ever since have ended badly.

Born in the USA

America’s 329 million includes 47 million immigrants, largely thanks to the 1965 Immigration Act. That’s 14.4% of the US population.  In the age of empire after 1945, immigrants have bolstered the economy with one Newsweek article suggesting that immigrants make about 2.5 times as much as other Americans.  This “all roads lead to Rome” keeps the American economy a world leader, despite the economic erosion of the highest military budget in the world.  Many physicians, dentists, lawyers, engineers, scientists, accountants, and rich businesspeople are among those immigrants often educated in the US and seeking to stay.  Meanwhile ever since the number one nuclear weapons contractor spokesperson Ronald Reagan tricked people into cutting the top tax rate 60% while only helping the middle class 15% in the name of a 25% tax cut, income inequality has quadrupled top 1% incomes while the 99% have had their incomes frozen for forty years.  Yes, that stagnancy even includes the rest of the top 5%.  And the real winners are the top 0.1%.  Only about 25% of immigrants are the poor South of the border type, and about 80% are legal.

I’m Going Down

Peace Economics shows strong international comparison correlations with high crime, corruption, and low health for the higher militarized economies.  This is the essence of the social decline of empire that accompanies the slow steady economic decline.  Even today political crisis pervades the three most militarized countries in NATO, America, Britain, and France.  Trump has disrupted America, Brexit befuddles Britain, and Macron’s elite policies with a blind spot to income inequality in France have created turmoil in all three countries.  All three have faced unwanted Russian interventions.  Meanwhile the most successful economy in Europe, Germany, has had up until now the lowest percentage of military spending at a mere 1%.  That 1% military has been the secret of success for pre-WWII America and post-WWII Japan.  The last three decades Japan has grown little while Japanese capital has brought up the whole Far East neighborhood, starting with the Four Tigers of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea and proceeding after that with China.  The Fujian province next to Hong Kong is where the high growth started in China in the 1980s.  Hong Kong was taking over China economically before China took over Hong Kong politically in 1999.  And low military Italy overtook Britain in 1987 in per capita income, the same year Japan passed America in per capita economy.  Then Britain found North Sea Oil, and Japan peaked in 1994 at 40% higher per capita income over America and has slumped to 25% higher in 2000 and continues to slump.

No Surrender

Americans famously used the Alamo “no surrender” policy to fend-off the Mexican army long enough to rally enough troops to defend Texas in 1845.  Much later, America adopted the unconditional surrender demand for fighting the tyrants of World War II.  Then the Republican Party took the idea too far, applying it in domestic politics, led by Newt Gingrich in 1994 as the first Republican Speaker of the House in forty years.  Extremism and the politics of personal destruction took hold after 46 years of the Cold War, ironically just after the Cold War ended.  But the excessive militarism of the long high military spending in peacetime years of the Cold War (1945-1991) had kind of baked into the cake the habits of empire.  So entwined was the nation in militarism that George H. W. Bush had to tempt a cash starved Iraq (drained by the Iran war) into trying to reclaim oil rich Kuwait as the 18th province separated from the rest of Iraq by the British in 1921.  He told his ambassador to Iraq to say the US didn’t care about border disputes after encouraging the Kuwaitis to slant drill underground for oil under the ground in Iraq.  Then he acted with outrage and rallied the UN to “free” Kuwait.  This saved the military from appearing irrelevant after the end of the Cold War, holding the Cold War defense budget cuts to 25% while Europe cut their forces 50%.  Empire was saved enough to be restored in the second Bush presidency after eight years of peace and prosperity.  Meanwhile, the second Democratic presidency after the Cold War was met with total noncooperation from the Republican Party and the Republican Party brought their Southern style politics North in 2010 to rebuke the first Black president.  Extremism was normalized, making Trump possible, in a new post-truth society of unlimited propaganda.  America had the equivalent of Caligula, the crazy emperor of Rome who lasted four years.

One Page Principles Summary of Peace Economics: https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p. 13

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, December 14), “Born in the United States”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Born-in-the-United-States,2018165532.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Following Nobel Norwegians

Beginning 2016

When I first wrote Peace Economics in 1986, I had hoped to be recognized with the Nobel Peace Prize, but a friend of mine thought I should be nominated for the Pulitzer.  Neither happened for a very long time as I tried various ways to get the word out.  Recognition was sporadic for many years, then I finally earned a doctorate in 2009 and things started happening.  In 2013 I began a press release campaign using the ExpertClick.com vehicle to reach 7000 members of the press.  In five years, I’ve had 160,000 views of my 200 press releases.  After two years of work on this project, I asked for my followers to nominate me for the Nobel Peace Prize in January 2016 a couple of weeks before the February 1 deadline.  An old friend came through for me and I sought a second nomination to separate me from the pack of over 300 nominees.  That seemed to work when suddenly something unusual happened on my website.  The website shows view totals for each release whenever I check it.  I check it several times a day and divide the day in thirds for my records.  Suddenly the totals of all 50 of my most current releases showed an increase of one about 9am February ,2, 2016 Norway time.  Apparently, I was being checked out by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.  Excited, I sent them a copy of my 40-minute video with a 24-page booklet enclosed of the latest compact version of my work Peace Economics.  This led to 22 views from France that had also never happened before on the WordPress.com website.  I did not expect France instead of Norway, but it turns out one of the committee was working in Strasbourg, France as Secretary General of the Council of Europe.  He also was educated in economics, the natural one to vet the Peace Economist.  And my email preceding the video shipment had mentioned “proof of peace economics” which was one visit to the home page of my WordPress.com site in March 2016 and 21 months back to July 2014 to that press release.

Silence Before the 2017 Award

Nothing much happened after the February March 2016 initial burst of interest until the twelve days before the 2017 announcement.  Then a new pattern of looking at the most recent 24 releases emerged three times, on Saturday afternoon Europe time 12 days before, Monday evening Europe time 10 days before, and the Thursday night before the 2017 announcement.  This looked like two people on the five-member committee double-checking first then searching for a third vote the night before.  Although the 2017 award to ICAN made some sense because of the prominence of the nuclear weapons issue thanks to North Korea and Trump, it was largely ignored by the world press.  Hence some misgivings about that award would justify looking for another recipient.

Emerging Favorite with 2018 Award

This third year has been amazing as the new pattern of reading the latest 24 press releases has repeated itself about 48 times compared to twice the first year and three the second year.  Despite not getting the award this year, clearly, I’ve reached the short list of favorite nominees.  In the year of the ME-TOO movement of women, it was logical to give the award to activists against the use of rape as a weapon of war. Perhaps my time will come in a year of world recession or war.  Cyber war, the war on democracy, the war on crime, the war on injustice and inequality, the war on climate change, the war on immigrants and refugees, the war on poverty, are all topics worthy of consideration for an award.  I have shown how many of those are related to high levels of military spending.  My two new scientific theories of economics and climate change all feed into the second clause in Nobel’s will about “reduction of armies” as a goal for the Peace Prize.  Reducing armies’ fights poverty and strengthens the national economy while reducing tensions and making a nation more immune to attack.  Clearer understanding of climate change mechanisms leads to a better understanding of both natural threat cycles and war cycles.  Knowing when hurricanes tend to repeat in a geographic area leads to better preparation.  Knowing when major wars tend to occur between major economic powers leads to better management of defense resources.  Less uncertainty leads to lower levels of armaments.  Of the 48 “hard looks” at my work this last year, the patterns are revealing.  Interest starts slow and accelerates over the course of the year.  In the fourth quarter of 2017 only two.  In the first quarter of 2018 ten hard looks.  In the second quarter of 2018 sixteen hard looks.  In the crucial third quarter of 2018 twenty hard looks before the announcement.  Interest in my candidacy by the committee has never been higher than right now.

Others Showing Interest Online

In the very first year of these press releases, October 2013, multiple site viewers made five views on academia.edu October 20-22 indicating interest by the Pentagon (Alexandria, Virginia) in my climate cycle theory.  This makes sense because the Pentagon is worried about global warming leading to many new conflicts around the world.  Then October 28-30 the CIA showed interest in my military economic theories with eight views from various sites but mostly Fairfax, Virginia.

Then Google started showing lots of interest with 76 views over five years 2013-2018, seventy from Mountain View, California.  Those Google views were mostly in 2015 and 2016 with 65 in those years.

Future Possibilities

Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize 179 years after the scientific discovery of the greenhouse effect.  Copernicus so feared retribution by the church that his work was not published until his daughter found it upstairs in the attic after his death.  Gandhi never won a Nobel Peace Prize because he died before it could be awarded.  Yoko Ono said on the 30th anniversary of John Lennon’s death that 1 million homicides had occurred in America since that day.  My finding that homicide rates are proportional to a nation’s military spending percentage of the economy suggests that cutting military spending in half could cut homicides in half, saving 500,000 lives over that thirty-year period.  That fact alone looks to me comparable to creating peace in a war that cost 500,000 lives over thirty years in Columbia. Using economic incentives to reduce military spending worldwide should reduce both the tendency to have war and the human cost of wars.  How valuable is that?  Understanding that the solar energy imbalances caused by different evaporation rates over oceans and lands affects natural disasters, economics, and wars with untold costs to humankind.  Better understanding of this cycle could save many thousands of lives every year.  How valuable is that?  How much more important is it to change these patterns now than to wait another year or two for a timely event to justify such an award?

Ten Pages Showing 56 Power Point Frames of Key Lectures:

https://www.academia.edu/36620474/Good_Concepts_May_2018_Update_Ten_Pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 8), “Following Nobel Norwegians”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Following-Nobel-Norwegians,2018162846.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Valuable Peace Economics

What I call Peace Economics is an evolution of ideas that spring from reassessing the false theory that military spending stimulates the economy.  What is revolutionary about this idea is the mathematical certainty of the models that verify it and the long shadow of internal political, social, defense, and historical consequences that spring directly from the military economy.

Military Spending Hurts the National Economy (#1 Idea)

This first finding surprised me so much because I had assumed that military Keynesianism showed that military spending helped the economic growth rate.  But Ruth Sivard’s work so contradicted that knowledge I had been taught at college that I instantly shared her bar charts all over the State of Oregon Legislature.  Finding that others did not share my clear vision and enthusiasm led to the exhaustive tests and proofs that she was right that I eventually named Peace Economics.  The peace movement was seemingly just as deluded as the economists, politicians, and journalists.  The peace movement was principally concerned only two ways, about nuclear weapons and about human rights.   This central finding led to a new economic theory, proof of the Kondratiev Wave (54 yr.), and proof of the Juglar Cycle (8-10 yr.).  Keynes and Roosevelt had already proven the economic stimulus value of the national deficit.  It has been a long heavy lift to establish the other three basic points, just as Thomas Kuhn’s Structure of a Scientific Revolution would predict.

Military Spending Hurts the National Defense (#2 Idea)

My second book title, Strength Through Peace, conveys this concept.  While defenders of the military industrial complex often resort to the slogan Peace Through Strength, I find that slogan very misleading.  The real power of a nation lies in its economic strength even more than its military strength.  The short-term benefits of military spending are usually meager compared to the steady erosion of economic strength military spending causes.  In fact, because of Idea #1 above, premature high levels of military spending when threats are relatively low only serve the purpose of gradually weakening a nation when a major threat shows up some time later.  The longer the interval before a real military need emerges, the greater the weakening rendered by excessively high premature levels of military spending.  The Defense Strategy chapter of my 1986 book Peace Economics shows some of the trade-off charts used to estimate appropriate levels of military spending for the longer term or even for the shorter-term strategies.

Military Spending Dominates and Controls a Nation (#3 Idea)

This shows up in the regional nature of changes in military spending. What crystalizes this as a mathematical relationship is looking at the degree of militarization of a state’s economy and lumping states together in one region based on major metropolitan centers that can pull several states together into a mini-region.  Thus, the military states concept shows how politics in the United States is dominated by the military industrial complex.  All of America’s leading political institutions are dominated by figures from the high military spending states and regions.  That includes about 80% of the presidents since World War II, 80% of the cabinet, 80% of congressional leadership, and 80% of the supreme court.  The misleading positive correlation with military spending regionally fails to recognize the losses in manufacturing states under military buildups and the gains in manufacturing states under military builddowns. In other words, the nation as a whole gains when the military lowers and the nation as a whole loses when the military is increased.  This contrast shows up most sharply between the Great Lakes states industrial heartland versus the high military and financial states of the bi-coastal economy.  Great opportunities exist in the financial markets to exploit these regional differences whenever a major change in military spending occurs.

Episodic Nature of Major Wars and Economic and Natural Events (#4 Idea)

The Kondratiev Wave, 54-year cycle, shows up precisely as a perfectly sinusoidal fluctuation in the manufacturing productivity growth rate in the 63-year model mentioned in Idea #1.  After the 1988 drought in the United States I took three years to figure out the natural connection to this cycle and the war cycle.  After hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012, I created a chart of 56 major natural, economic, and war event examples of the cycle, with about 95% accuracy. I also established the connecting mechanisms between these three different forms of the cycle.  This is a great achievement that will improve forecasting for hurricanes, great recessions, and wars.  This makes possible a rational reduction in military spending as part of a national defense strategy.  Millions will benefit from improved forecasting of economic and natural disasters and wars might even be avoided when their causes are better understood as part of this long cycle.

Empire Decline and Socioeconomic Decay (#5 Idea)

My 1989 work first showed the murder and crime correlations with military spending.  This is a leading indicator of the social decay that occurs with prolonged levels of high military spending in a nation and shows up in the sharp drop in crime that occurred in the nineties with the end of Cold War high levels of military spending.  This also helps explain how crime has dropped in Germany and other European countries much more than in the United States in the twenty-first century, thanks to the post 9-11-01 military buildup and wars waged by the United States.  In fact, the Index created in the Spirit Level book shows that empire and military spending correlate even stronger than income inequality with obesity, mental health, teen birthrates, prisoners, and homicides.  The theory of empire that blames collapse on moral weakness has it backwards.  High military spending changes change the economy in the same year they occur, showing that the economic effect occurs first before the social effects, just as crime drops in the nineties took several years to take hold rather than happening immediately.  Cause and effect require a closer look than just watching correlations.  Military spending is the first domino to fall in the long process of manufacturing decline and social decay of empire. Rigidity is a result of the ensuing stagnation.  Stagnation comes in many forms, from political, to class rigidity, and the lack of social mobility.

Twelve Stages of Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 1), “Valuable Peace Economics”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Valuable-Peace-Economics,2018162572.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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