bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the category “Sociology of Empire”

Controlling Authoritarians

Tensions High In Pandemic Isolation

Controlling authoritarians are everywhere in an empire society, power and control are the essence of the military economy.  Thanks to pandemic isolation, people are snapping at each other with increasing regularity. One friend of mine starved himself to death in the social isolation atmosphere. This is a personal tale by a political activist I know that illustrates the problematic nature of mixing politics and personal grudges together in terms of increasingly authoritarian empire pandemic America, where national leaders downplay civil rights, masking, and social distancing among other things.  The militarized nature of the modern police force overemphasizes emptying the full seven shot revolver into defendants, too often unarmed, too often saving the last shot for the head to prevent victim testimony as in Ferguson 2014 and Madison 2015.  Too many with military service backgrounds treat their fellow Americans like they treat foreigners in our too many foreign wars and skirmishes, including many police and civilian bad apples.  “Going postal” amid the stress of the stagnation and rigidity of politics and empire, chronic underpaying of the middle class by those with wildly increasing riches, and rising weather disasters driving millions from their homes.  Postal service is 30% veterans.  How many with PTSD?  Police need better training in dispute resolution and de-escalating tense situations as road rage goes through the roof.  Justice?  Forget about it, “power and control” rules.

Authoritarianism Versus Democracy

Authoritarianism as practiced by Trump and the Police consists of tight control of information, and indirect information from direct sources packaged and presented to the public by authoritarian intermediaries.  Democracy thrives on open information available to all with the right to petition your government over grievances.  Asserting your rights, as in the civil rights movement march over the Edmond Pettus bridge lead by the late congressman John L Lewis of Georgia causes so-called “good trouble”.  Lewis had his skull cracked in that event by Alabama policemen and barely survived.  Fighting for your rights often requires brash actions toward authoritarians, “good trouble” and can be upsetting to authoritarians.  Authoritarians think they alone can enjoy rights and not the public.  Authoritarians seek order at the expense of justice.  The authoritarian concept of “law and order” means they are the law, and you must obey their orders.  This is where Trump thinks he is above the law, making his constant lawlessness perfectly acceptable.  Police often practice authoritarianism and justify it by saying “tell it to the judge”.  That phrase is never acceptable to compensate for an unequal and unfair evaluation process by an officer.  Good police training should always keep justice and fairness in mind and try to deescalate conflict nonviolently whenever possible.  Good police training should never be to empty your clip and save the last shot for a head shot as in Ferguson and Madison.  That may excessively guarantee safety for the officer but violates the sacred oath of “protect and serve”, replacing that concept with “dominate and control.”

Get There First with the Most

This is a basic principle of success in conflicts.  Usually the one who is first wins.  Why? Because they can frame the issue their way and when they manipulate the truth in their favor, the second-place person is at a great disadvantage regardless of the truth.  Propaganda repeated often enough begins to take on the appearance of the truth.  When the second person presents truths in conflict with the authoritarian’s preconceived notions, that truth is easily dismissed.  The first person to call the police usually wins the day, rightly or wrongly.

Sacredness of the Mail

Stealing mail from a mailbox is a federal crime and the mail service is uniquely mentioned in the United States Constitution.  When Trump figured out that absentee and mail-in ballots would become a major strategy to protect citizens in the pandemic, he immediately attacked the process and encouraged his followers to vote in person on election day.  In the vote by mail process, an estimated 1% of votes were lost due to technicalities. Trump appointed De Joy to sabotage the mail and took out 671 high speed mail processing machines last summer, especially in large urban areas in toss-up states.  His purpose was to obstruct the vote by sabotaging the post office.  Many voted early but an estimated 300,000 votes were lost due to late mail delivery, despite a last-minute nationwide court order the day before the election ordering a postal sweep to find and send out all outstanding ballots that was not followed by the post office.

Rogue Mail Carrier                                                                                    

My friend’s arrogant young mail carrier went rogue last summer and took mail left to accumulate in the mailbox without leaving any note or other explanation.  My friend was left to wonder who did this, because some one with a grudge or political difference may have taken the mail.  When he asked the mailman about this, the postman admitted he had taken the mail and said my friend could get it back. When asked why, he said he thought the mail had been abandoned and the house was vacant.  That excuse was absurd, with my elderly friend and his wife there every day, especially in the pandemic.  The postman said the mail would be back in two days. When it was not there, my friend drove around to find the mailman a couple of days later and ask what was going on.  When asked if the carrier had reported this incident to his supervisor, he smugly assured my friend he had kept his supervisor completely informed.  My friend doubted this because of the tone of voice, he seemed desperate to avoid a customer talking directly to his supervisor.  These are the actions of a guilty person.  The fact that he did all this without leaving a note in the mailbox seemed an inappropriate detail he would have left out from his story about the incident and he would have characterized my friend as the problem instead of the postman.  Several days later, the old mail appeared.  The postman alleges that customers had no right to leave mail in the mailbox.  Several months later, he did it again, taking my friends mail and leaving no note.  He had just checked the mail around 3pm and it was gone by 3:30pm.  This was that mailman’s first delivery day (Tuesday, another carrier delivered on Monday) after Joe Biden was declared president-elect.  He was probably enraged by the loss of his candidate and acted out as my friend had lots of peace and Biden signs including a no F-35 sign prominently on the path to the mailbox.  Taking mail with no good reason meant he acted guilty when my friend found him making the rounds a couple of blocks away.  That is why he avoided my friend when my friend got out of his car to talk to the postman.  The postman ran away then to avoid talking to my friend, so my friend hollered out to him “Are you going to give me my mail back?”  The postman clearly said one word, “no.”  At that point, he came closer seeing that the customer meant him no harm.  Then he abused his power by calling the police.  He said that as a federal employee he had special protective status.  Then like Trump he doubled down and called the police.  The postman lied to the police on two key issues, claiming my friend chased him, and threatened to hurt him.  If that were true, then why approach the man first before calling police to say he was a threat?  The chase was in his imagination only, as he knew he had done wrong.  The threat that my friend would hurt him was also imaginary and a psychological projection of what he thought he deserved out of his guilt.  He thought he could scare my friend off by calling the police.  My friend said “go ahead” because he welcomed the police as mediators.  Unfortunately, he ran into the wrong kind of cop.  My friend’s wife said the mail carrier had a look in his eyes like Timothy McVeigh.  Is this just another story of mice learning how to be rats?

Civil Rights Violations

While waiting for the supervisor at the mail station, my friend found the other clerks agreed with him that taking his mail without leaving a note was wrong.  Later a supervisor shared his dismay about no note being left behind.  With a note, the act is one of a postal worker, without it, it is the act of an abuse perpetrator.  My friend thought that he was observing his constitutional right to petition his government with his grievances.  Then the policepersons, a policeman and a trainee woman, stopped him from meeting with postal supervision in pursuit of his constitutional right to petition his government about grievances at the crucial time before issuing the ticket.  Remember, first contact always wins.  After a brief talk the policeman left him and his wife alone with the woman and went into another area and colluded with the mail thief perpetrator and his supervisor to continue framing him as the guilty party and not the real guilty mail carrier.  Because of this collusion exclusion, the key excluded detail was that no note was left in the mailbox about ten days to reclaim his mail.  This lack of a note shows intent to harm him and is a clear violation of normal mail procedures.  The policeman came back from that long meeting and patronizingly gave my friends mail back with the explanation he had ten days to pick up this mail.  How does returning stolen items exonerate the thief?  How does anyone know about this ten-day period without a note left in the mailbox?  This was incompetent policework, “assuming” the mail taking was appropriate and proper.  The policeman showed a complete inability to see any wrongdoing on the mail carrier’s part, a complete inability to consider two sides of the dispute.  Questioning the intent of an accuser is good policework, completely absent in this policeman, who had the audacity to tell my friend “tell it to the judge”.  This policeman then twice refused to give the carriers name, a denial of the constitutional right to confront accusers.  Then he tried to laugh off the request of the police report.  Justice delayed is justice denied, and my friend expects the name will be in the police report, but like the exclusion from seeing the supervisors, and the presumption of innocence, these three constitutional issues were denied by the police.  Because the mail carrier had reached the police before my friend reached the supervisor, the perpetrator was coddled by the authorities while the victim, my friend, was doubly victimized by the mail carrier perpetrator and the police and postal supervision.  Just another victim of a disgruntled Trump loser acting out.

Crime in the Empire Society:

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989_1999_3p_1999

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, November 16), “Controlling Authoritarians” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Controllng-Authoritarians,2020238595.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from the deciding Norwegians.  A consistently growing pattern shows intense interest in my work on my expertclick.com website, daily “hard looks” per year have gone from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 200.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

Mask Mandates Immediately

Mask Mandate

As soon as Biden becomes president elect and controls the Senate, he can promise a relief package to cities and states based on the condition that those receiving aid must institute a mask requirement in their jurisdiction and do prompt testing contact and tracing to determine who needs to quarantine for fourteen days.  These two underutilized public health tools are just what the Trump regime has been avoiding because Trump thinks testing and mask wearing make him look bad.  These can be done immediately with the promise to make them retroactive to election day.  Waiting until January 20th would cost hundreds of thousands of lives.  Acting presidential immediately will fill the void left by the Trump regime’s stubborn resistance against using these powerful and basic tools to fight the virus.  We cannot afford to wait.

Truth and Reconciliation Commission

The long list of obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and other Trump family crimes could be prosecuted or in the name of mercy hearings could be held instead, but only if Republicans are contrite.  If they are not contrite, the racketeering laws should be used against the postmaster general, attorney general, and others guilty of obstruction of laws and obstruction of voting or voter intimidation.  New laws must be written to prevent or discourage such abuses in the future.  Future presidential bad behavior must be discouraged and the ridiculous Justice provision of not allowing presidents to be charged with crimes must end.  Some court should probably decide whether such charges should wait until the president is out of office or not.  Every Senate impeachment trial has become so partisan that that constitutional tool is useless except in the Nixon case.  That was such an innocent time and place long ago.

Foreign Election Involvement

Despite dozens of contacts with Russians in Trump’s first election the Mueller Report could not “prove” collusion.  Yet the Republican Senate Intelligence Committee’s bipartisan report of 1000 pages did find such collusion.  It is obvious that Manafort’s 75 pages of campaign information along with the key targeted states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania helped the collusion significantly.  One University of Wisconsin researcher found that 20,000 Facebook accounts with Trump were coordinated with 4000 Facebook accounts of Russian origin.  The same material went out at the same time over all 24,000 combined accounts many times during the campaign. Roger Stone was a key link, but not the only one.  Trump kept choosing to believe Putin over US intelligence agencies and the FBI.  Russian disinformation is actively distributed to other Republican Senators by Homeland Security chair Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin.  Giuliani has used lots of Russian disinformation, before and after the Impeachment.  Black voters in key states were targeted to discourage their voting in 2016.  The seven Trump phone calls to Putin from March to July were probably about collusion for this year 2020.

Economics                                                                                                   

Just as four years of lowering military spending from 2012-2015 had 25% higher job growth than the Trump first three military buildup years, the manufacturing recession of 2016 was a direct result of the small military buildup in 2016 by Obama.  Then there was a burst of manufacturing jobs when the Trump tax cut began in 2018, followed by the trade war with China causing a new manufacturing recession in late 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 before the coronavirus infected New York in the second quarter, as 127,000 lives were lost in that second quarter while the shut down reduced the economy 9.5% and opening up added 7% of the economy back in the third quarter.  This still leaves an unemployment rate of 7.9% that is mainly affecting the lower half of the job market.

Mitch McConnell

The Senate Republican Leader falls in the tradition of Reagan, Gingrich, McConnell, and Trump.  Each of these made major changes on the road to deepening empire and gridlock.  Reagan created the almost tax-free rich that has quadrupled their incomes over 40 years while the middle class had no gains, so he created oligarchy.  Gingrich took back the House from 40 years of Democratic control in 1994.  Mitch McConnell ruined the Senate by abusing the filibuster blocking anything Obama including judges.  Then he stole a stole two Supreme Court seats in 2016 and 2020.  Trump is destroying the Republican Party.  Mitch McConnell is the worst of the four.  Forbearance is necessary for democracy to last, and Mitch McConnell refused to allow normal government to proceed.  Instead of forbearance, Mitch sought extreme obstruction. So much for the presidential honeymoon.

Nature of the Empire Society:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, October 31), “Mask Mandates Immediately” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Mask-Mandates-Immediately,2020237977.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in a consistently growing pattern that shows up on my website as following my work, daily hard looks per year have gone from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 200.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com 

Info: www.realeconomy.com

What We All Should Know

The Election

This 2020 is not like 2016, and unlikely to end the same when the right wing scared and bullied Comey into violating FBI rules that prevented releasing investigation information within 40 days of an election.  The main difference between then and now is the degree of indecision of the voters.  Voters were 50% open to change in 2016 about five weeks out and only 5% in 2020.  The rest is turnout, with a much more aroused blue base now.  Undecided voters are rare, and polls are much more stable now.  Then Russian stolen emails changed the debate significantly, now they are active creating narratives like Biden feebleness in coordination with Trump that few believe this time.  The Republican voters then 46% believed the pizza-gate sex ring charge.  Then black voters in the targeted upper Midwest states of MN, WI, MI, PA were jointly discouraged from voting by Russian measures included same postings sent out at exactly the same time by 4000 Russian Facebook accounts as 20,000 Trump allied accounts (UW Madison researcher results).  The real story will be the Senate landslide with many close races likely to slide Biden’s way.  In 2016 there were no split ticket states, each went the same way for President and Senate.

Coronavirus

Republican run red states Texas and Florida have double the cases (per capita) of Democratic run New York and California with mask wearing, shutdowns, and crowds tolerated (bars, etc.) the main differences.  Kemp who stole the governorship from Stacy Abrams in Georgia is trying to suppress the Atlanta mayor’s mask order.  The Republican governor of South Dakota allowed the 250,000 Sturgis motorcycle rally to create a super-spreader event this summer that caused spikes in all the neighboring states two weeks later. In my home state of Wisconsin, the Green Bay, Appleton-Oshkosh, and Fond Du Lac metro areas of the Republican leaning Fox River valley are all in the top four metro areas nationwide, with widespread lack of masks and crowding into bars (beer and cheese state, right?).  Family and friend gatherings are the worst spreader events as school kids mix and then come home.

Economics                                                                                                   

The Trump job and growth statistics are lower in his first three years than Obamas last three years by over a million jobs, and the trade war with China was lost with 300 manufacturing jobs lost and many farmers going bankrupt. In Youngstown, Ohio the Chevrolet Cruz factory was shut down without a whimper from the President.  The stock market was down before the 2016 election over uncertainty which presidential policies would win.  The decision let the stock market rebound but that would have happened either way the election went.  The tax cut boosted manufacturing jobs in 2018, then the trade war and military buildup caused a manufacturing recession in 2019.  The Pandemic shutdown hurt the European countries more than America, but at a cost of five-fold increase in pandemic deaths per capita compared to the leader of the free world Angie Merkel’s Germany, who’s economic growth was reduced by the 60% military buildup (from Europe low 1.0% GDP up to 1.6%) to come up to NATO standards.  Trump has clearly abdicated American leadership in the world, preferring dictators to democracies.

Recession

In 2009 the unemployment was across the board, whether high or low income.  Today, the upper income half of jobs had no increase in unemployment while the lower income half of jobs had soaring unemployment like ten years ago. Perhaps that’s why Republicans are unwilling to extend relief payments.  Trump and Mitch insist on not funding cities and states, calling it a blue state bailout.  Ironically, that means they want to “defund the police” and other first responders who will have to be laid off.  Ironically, they will hurt red states and governors more as the states without mask orders and responsible social distancing “open economies” are spiking the worst.  I am sorry Republicans, blue states are the economic engines of America, as are cities, and 85% of Americans live in metropolitan areas.  Attacking Democratic run cities is a very foolish way to help the economy.  Divide and conquer is fine for war but terrible for peace.

Nobel Peace Prize

The Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to government leaders and large organizations who are trying to end wars or mitigate the effects of war.  No imagination about trying to prevent wars.  No thinking outside the box since the award to Al Gore for his fight against global warming.  No award to economic proof that military spending is the prime diversion away from economic growth driven by manufacturing to meet civilian needs.  My science once recognized will inspire good leaders to minimize that diversion, minimize military budgets, to keep their economies strong and invader resistant.  The wise will reduce armies to both keep a nation economically strong and relevant and keep the small percent of military ever growing and modernizing with the power of the high growth low military economy.  Ignoring the new science of peace economics will lead to “strongman” nations losing power and becoming irrelevant, just as the Norwegian Nobel Committee is making themselves irrelevant with band-aids against war rather than a real game changer reversing the logic of military buildups.  The part of Nobel’s will that calls for “reduction of armies” is ignored in favor of short-term palliatives rather than incentivizing strategic vision that will increasingly lead to a reverse arms race for the foreseeable future.  The September 19, 2019 visit to look at my place by a well-dressed European looking person in a blue Prius, and recent Oslo visit(s) to her website of one my nominators had us at the Real Economy Institute excited and then disappointed once again.  I see myself as more of an engineer and designer than a politician or businessman.  That is a perspective lacking in the very political Norwegians, who are not scientists.  Can they break free of their narrow perspectives to consider merit and army reduction rather than our small institutional size and my white American male status?  Can they award mathematical achievement in pursuit of peace rather than political achievement?  Science changes things forever, not just one war at a time.

Reuschlein Game Changer Economic Engineering Model:

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt_3p_2014

 

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, October 17), “What We All Should Know Now” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/What-We-All-Should-Know-Now,2020237362.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in a consistently growing pattern that shows up on my website as following my work, daily hard looks per year have gone from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 200.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com[RR1] 


 

Most Unusual Times Update

How Democracies Die

This 2018 book by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt came up with two main reasons for the death of democracies.  Democracies depend on tolerance and forbearance.  When one party is intolerant of the other side and never declines to take advantage of the other side at every opportunity, democracy is in trouble.  Restraint is essential to democracy and Trump’s endless parade of norm breaking and law breaking threatens democracy.  Low information voters are perfectly gullible swallowing whole Trump’s 20,000 lies in office as documented by the two papers of record the New York Times and Washington Post.  Many of Trump’s supporters consider him frank and honest.  Frank, yes, honest, no way.

Conservatism

This is not your grandfather’s Republican Party.  Barry Goldwater, the political candidate who birthed the radical brand of conservatism in 1964, led the delegation of Republican Senators who told Richard Nixon to resign in 1974.  Ronald Reagan, who nominated Goldwater in 1964, put America on the path of militarism and extremism by cutting the tax rate on the rich 60%.  Millions of small business owners vote Republican despite being sold out in favor of big business every time there is a tax cut.  Conservatism needs champions of business, but small business has been coopted by the big business owned by the 1%, the elephant triumphs again.

Religion

The gospels of Jesus never mention anything about abortion.  Jesus in his devotion to human equality keeps warning us about the rich, hypocritical religious pharisees that often resemble church going Republicans with their prejudices, and the false prophets warned about in the apocalypse.  Funding the rich and defunding the poor is not what Jesus would want.  Trump reminds me of the musical “The Music Man” as a con man takes over a small town.  The cult around Trump has been created by endlessly bullying everyone in sight who slights Trump in any way.  Trump serves only himself not others, hardly the way of religion.  Jesus warned us about the excessive clubbiness in religions and Country Clubs.  This leads to looking down on others rather than helping them.  Good Samaritan forget about it.

Lawlessness

Trump is easily running one of the most corrupt presidencies ever, compared to no charges against Obama cabinet members while he was in office.  Turnover is record setting, as Trump keeps firing Secretaries and National Security Advisors.  When Trump’s people try to be honest, they are fired and replaced with much more pliable acting Secretaries and agency heads.  Most of the cabinet is as corrupt as Trump in their self-dealing expense reports.  Already Impeached and guilty of countless acts of obstruction of justice, Trump intimidated the Mueller investigation.  William Barr, Trump’s current Attorney General, lied about the Mueller report and keeps exonerating corrupt officials (Flynn) and campaign aides (Stone).  He also lied to congress, both chambers, and tried to keep his former fixer in jail to stop his tell all book.  When honest officials cross the liar in chief, they are bullied relentlessly, even firing acting FBI director McCabe just one day before pension vesting.  No level of cruelty is too much for Trump, who rips apart families at the border.  How can such a president even dare to run on a law and order platform?  I guess it works with the blind believers.

Less Military

The Reuschlein economic model, so scientifically precise, will force over time all governments to recognize that strong defense cannot be prioritized over the economy, as high military spending blocks manufacturing growth.  Some military may be necessary, but too much too soon will only weaken the economy and thereby the long-term national defense.  Deluded by military Keynesianism, US presidents of both political parties have used military spending to inject growth in local economies, failing to recognize the boomerang effect of reduced manufacturing jobs that goes with all military buildups.  Check the record, the graphs are obvious.

Nature in these times

Hurricanes, typhoons, and wildfires have been very impactful in recent hot years.  This year, the United States was impacted by the most major hurricanes (four) since 1916 and the most landfalls of tropical storms and hurricanes (eight) since 1856.  Of course global warming has warmed the oceans, but cyclical better explains these events.  Two 54-year cycles ago would be 1912 and three 54-year cycles would be 1858, so the repetition of events is only four years and two years off respectively.  A couple years ago here in the American Midwest our skies were faced with a light haze thanks to fires in Alberta Canada tar sands area.  Today the haze has returned thanks to the orange sky smog of fires over California and Oregon.  Each of the two states has a record setting fire with about three times as much fire overall.  The American West Rocky Mountain states all have major fires going on.  Trump’s style of climate denial is extreme even by corporate standards, with Amazon promising to be carbon neutral by 2030.

Conclusion

Coronavirus deaths in America by month, 60,000 April, 40,000 May, 27,000 June, 27,000 July, 30,000 August, 24,000 September.  Not much evidence of slowing down, will probably spike in flu season.  Time for the traditional notion of national security to be expanded beyond military force to include global warming and public health, both nationally and internationally.  The pandemic did slow down most European economies in the first quarter more than in America.  The Spanish flu of 1918 (thirty million died) and the Hong Kong flu of 1968 (one million deaths) and the coronavirus 2020 (one million deaths so far) all seem to be on the 54-year cycle.  The confluence of major wars and civil rights protests during these times periods suggests that the end of the 27-year high growth period in the long cycle creates multiple tensions that play out the three ways.  The first period had World War, Spanish flu, and women’s right to vote.  The second period had the Tet offensive in Vietnam, the nearby Hong Kong flu, and Martin Luther King death riots.  Now we have the pandemic, Black Lives Matter protests, and the major war scheduled for 2025 give or take a couple years.  The Reuschlein research proves both the empire theory and long cycle theory are accurate and reliable scientific theories that can and will change the world.

Reuschlein 17 Key Findings and Claims:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, September 29), “Most Unusual Times Update” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Most-Unusual-Times-Update,2020236573.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 196 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

Extreme Situation Forecast

Charge

“For an upcoming story I am looking to speak with researchers who work on computer models of “apocalyptic” or extreme situations, such as nuclear war, extreme drought, etc. Looking to discuss what drew them to the work, how their work has been impacted by recent political, environmental, social events (and the Covid-19 pandemic), and how they think their research can help us enact change. In your email, please share a few lines about the nature of the work and how they came into it.”  Maggie Puniewska.

Extremes

“For an upcoming story I am looking to speak with researchers who work on computer models of “apocalyptic” or extreme situations, such as nuclear war, extreme drought, etc.”  My empire and climate theories are really based on the economic and temperature changes brought about by military spending and global evaporation patterns.  Military spending increases divert research and capital resources away from manufacturing production, which clearly shows up in the manufacturing jobs loss statistics.  Land warms up three times as fast as oceans thanks to the lower water availability over land triggering an energy imbalance that takes 27 years to warm up and 27 years to cool off in the 54-year world cycle.  This global temperature cycle drives a similar economic cycle and war politics cycle.  I have charted 56 major headline grabbing cyclic world events including peaks and valleys of temperature, economics, social movements, wars, pandemics, hurricanes, volcanoes, blizzards, droughts, floods, and severe winters among other extreme events.

Impacts

“How their work has been impacted by recent political, environmental, social events (and the Covid-19 pandemic).”  This has only accelerated my work with many current examples of the long-term patterns I evaluate.  The 2020 pandemic mimics the 1968 Hong Kong flu and 1918 Spanish flu in the last two cycles, 52 and 50 years apart. Black Lives Matter 2020 ushers in the return of the civil rights movement 55 years after Selma.  Empire theory documents the long-term impact of excessive military spending, depleting the economic and defense strength of the country, and contributing to political stagnation and oligarchy, income inequality, crime and prisoners, increasing anxiety, and poor health statistics such as, obesity, mental illness, teen births and infant mortality, drug use and gambling diversions.

Enacting Change with Science

“How they think their research can help us enact change.”  Right now people see military facilities and factories providing jobs, but do not see the simultaneous reduction in manufacturing jobs as directly linked.  When the continuing proofs and perfect fit models I offer convince the leaders and public of the new scientific paradigm, world leaders will be motivated to cut military spending in the short run to boost it in the long run as a smaller percentage but faster growing part of a faster doubling economy.  Real national strength comes from the size of the economy.  Current global warming models are all defective, not including the zig zag pattern of the warming confirmed by the perfectly fitting 55 year moving average of the 170-year world temperature record.  They incorrectly assume that there are too many factors out there to produce a simple elegant model like mine.  Like the economists, they falsely assume micro analysis leads to macro analysis.  I find in these two areas that the best macro models are possible with two major factors like military spending and evaporation leading into one precise finding after another.

Drawn to Work

“Looking to discuss what drew them to the work.”  Working at the State of Oregon Legislature as an intern I picked up a brochure at a Fellowship of Reconciliation meeting at the famous Dorothy Patch’s house in Salem Oregon.  A chart in that brochure showed that nineteen years of G7 experience clearly shows that manufacturing productivity is

inversely related to military spending as a percent of each nation’s economy.  Testing that statistical relationship lead directly to Peace Economics and later the Real Economy Institute as I went from peace politician to Peace Economics (1986) researcher and publisher.

Nature of the Work

“Nature of the work and how they came into it.”  The nature of the work was in keeping with my engineering and accounting degrees, applied to the political economy environment.  The work resembled my wargamer years writing and designing wargames like CBS News anchor Walter Cronkite’s favorite game “Battle of the Bulge”.  That lead to my only direct game with later “Dungeon and Dragons” inventor Gary Gygax.  I clobbered Gary in a classic counterattack as my Americans defeated Gary’s Germans in the classic World War II battle in December 1944.  Decades of experience with all kinds of board games prepared me for conflict simulation game design work.

Conclusion

The current situation is fraught with the increasing tensions of empire and climate as we approach the climatic years of 2024 and 2025 shown to be the average and frequency peaks respectively of the major war and coldest year of the upcoming decade. After 2025 global warming will dramatically accelerate for the next 27 years up to 2052.  Trump is a manifestation of decades of the deepening condition of empire in America according to the Reuschlein models.  The only way out of this forty-year middle class squeeze play by the rich is too reverse the military empire America is caught up in.

Killing Democracy Update

The April 30, 2020, press release “Killing Democracy by Trump” has become the most viewed release in six years, about four or five times bigger than the average of the 242 releases with 250,000 views so far.  The latest outrage is the deliberate sabotage of the mail by a Trump big donor installed to run the post office without any relevant experience.  Sabotage of the postal service mentioned in the constitution by Trump associates just to try and stop voting by mail, like Mitch McConnell trying to bankrupt the states by blocking pandemic relief funding, seem to be acts of domestic terrorism.  One wonders if other rent and mortgage moratorium relief is stalled until millions have been evicted and deprived of their vote by re-registration requirements and deadlines.  After the failed impeachment, the boldness of strongman wannabee Trump seems to have little bounds.  We live in dangerous times, with the Trump cult pushing fascist tendencies to the limit.  Even local US Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Chuck Grassley of Iowa are channeling Russian disinformation to other Senators running for re-election, despite Russian election aid being illegal.

Empire and Climate Economics Forecasting:

https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt_29_slide_5_p_2017

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, August 15), “Extreme Situation Forecast” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Extreme-Situation-Forecast,2020234650.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 213 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

Downplaying Military Budget

Overall

Military spending has a special high status in the United States.  Because the military is held in such high esteem by the public there is an inherent reluctance by politicians and the press to challenge the military budget.  My research shows a huge negative impact on the manufacturing economy by military buildups.  Everything I see in the data shows that military spending is THE major cause of empire decline, social decay, and crime.  But the silence and denial are deafening about all this.  Keynesian economists often recognize the long-term erosion of the economy due to military spending but insist on the completely contradictory idea that military spending stimulates the economy in the short run.  This is ridiculous, like moonwalking toward a goal you will never reach, because you cannot walk backwards and end up going forward.  Because the political establishment follows the folly of the mainstream economists, the last three Democratic US presidents, Carter, Clinton, and Obama, have all started economically harmful military buildups in the last year they were in office and ended up electing the other party all three times.  People are so convinced that military spending is just like other government spending that they completely ignore thoughts about the long-term consequences and falsely accept the non-existent short-term positives.  Empirical evidence can be discounted because of the widespread false belief that economics is just too hard to predict well, and the social science belief that multifactor analysis is the only way to go, and that micro analysis can be built-up to explain the macro situation.  Because of all these false constructs entrenched in today’s social structure, only my accurate new science can set the record straight and put an end to the false conclusions justifying militarism and empire.  The existing structures refuse to connect the military to manufacturing stagnation or crime and murder rates.  Military backgrounds are treated as neutral, so corruptions that come from them are unexamined and avoided.

Consequences

National leadership fails to understand the problem of lost economic opportunity due to shifting crucial resources away from productive manufacturing, construction, agriculture, and mining and into nonproductive military spending.  Military spending has considerable power and control potential yet lacks all but limited civilian research joint uses. The 90% of military spending that consists of payroll supplies and equipment gives national service with no viable economic civilian product.  In the area of crime too much focus on guns and human nature ignores the direct relationship between military training to kill, alienation from humans considered other or enemies, and desperation due to the slow economy and stagnation of empire.  Leaders falsely consider that a large army makes a nation strong, when in fact it tends to make a nation weaker all too soon.  Military spending is thought of as foreign policy so much that the domestic problem is ignored.  Military background is all too rarely considered despite many mass murderers and warrior cops.  We do not see the attitude (demonization) and training (to kill easily and quickly) as facilitating the usual 2% of the military with the deviant tendency to pursue crime.  Military spending has an obvious impact on localities, what is not obvious is the drain on research and capital resources away from the normal civilian good producing economy.  That makes military spending a transfer of resources from one region to another, not a net gain or loss of jobs, just a loss of output, as powerful goods producing resources are turned into a mere provision of services.  High military spending has systematically eroded manufacturing to be replaced by financial services, increasingly corrupt politics, and crime, income inequality, and poor health over the course of time in an empire society.

Actors In the Military Game

Military spending is “thought” to magically appear where it is spent coming out of thin air.  The money going into military spending is tracked and observed easily and the concept of “opportunity cost” is apparently better understood in business than economics.  There is a kind of “flat earth” narrowness of perception that does not understand that military money can not be separated from the allocation of scarce key resources.  Ruth Sivard’s work clearly shows that the leading European powers and US over a twenty year period have the same combined total of capital investment and military spending,  Thus her work shows that military spending reduces capital investment representing lost capital investment to the economy as a whole.  Most politicians see what happens in their state or district and do not see the big national picture where manufacturing jobs are lost in military buildups and restored during military build-downs like the sixties, nineties, and after the end of the Iraq War.  Businesspeople know that where you assign the employees and capital is where you get the results.  Spending on economic growth or military power gets you either achievement improvements or political power.  Economists tend to see money spent and think it does not matter what it is spent on, economic growth results either way.  They buy the Keynesian notion that one group of people could dig holes, and another fill those holes up, and paying them represents economic growth both ways.  That is nonsense, what you do does matter, Roosevelt improved natural parks and built buildings with his job programs, he did not waste the money.  In Madison Wisconsin where I live, a half dozen MAJOR buildings around town were built in the year 1938, for instance.  Politicians often settle for small amounts in the low military states in deals with big money military contractor states.  In 2004 a Wisconsin US Senator got a $7 million dollar milk price support deal for the dairy state while the state lost a thousand times that amount for net of federal taxes military spending of $9 BILLION drained from the state.  Thanks to the progressive nature of empire decay and militarism, US manufacturing jobs have gone from 40% in 1950 to 20% in 1980 to 10% in 2010, a scientific half-life of 30 years since the onset of high military spending “empire” since the end of World War II in 1945, 75 years of empire until this year 2020.  In fairness to Keynes, military spending was only three percent of the British Empire economy between the world wars, while the US spent eight percent during the Cold War ended in 1991.  Thus Keynes did not have modern data to document his theory perhaps leading to the military Keynesian error.  Politics took over from economics during the Cold War.

Conclusion

The large military spending of the second World War, Reagan military buildup, and Cold War together with modern statistics makes it possible to see the reality of the military economy.  Too short and too small of changes can lead to misleading results, but the longer and stronger the economy and military spending the more clear-cut the picture.  This is the advantage my work (1985-2020) has over the Keynes work in 1936.  The shear power of military money has created a cult of silence about serious

(not token) impacts of military spending.  Long hours watching politics on television usually understates the largely unknown impacts of the military on most of modern society.  The opportunity to cut the military budget is a rare mention if at all for presidential and congressional candidates.  That is downplaying, whispering past the elephant in the room.

Basics of the Economic Model:

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt_3p._2014

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, July 1), “Downplaying Military Budget” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Downplaying-Military-Budget,2020232772.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 219 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

Militarized Police Problem

Overall

Derek Chauvin was the white policeman who lead the team of four policemen who together killed black man George Floyd in Minneapolis on Memorial Day May 25th. Chauvin started as a military police officer with the U.S. Army from September 1996 to February 1997 and again from September 1999 to May 2000. Just as the sixties started with the Watts Los Angeles riot of 1965 and ended with the 1968 riots after Martin Luther King had been killed, today’s protests and riots began with the Michael Brown whitewashed police murder in 2014 and the Baltimore 2015 riots.  Today’s widespread mainly peaceful protests followed by some riots come 52 years after the King riots, evidence of the 54-year Kondratiev cycle of world political events.  Enclosed is my very well received article back then included in the Journal of Nonviolent Research, Fall 2014, Aug 18, 2014.  Military training and background are often found in murderers, especially mass murderers, and contributes to America’s unusually high murder rate.  Homicides by police are remarkably steady over the years despite great changes over the years in crime rates in America, suggesting that is part of the police culture unique to America among the developed countries where police shootings are quite rare comparatively.  The military arms to police program was stopped by Obama and reinstated by Trump.  This is how militarism and empire affect the domestic situation in America.  Protests have been in 380 cities in America and spots around the world.

Militarized Terror Policing 8-17-14

INTRODUCTION

This is what we have come to.  Seventy years of hollowing out our economic manufacturing sector went to support the political military sector instead.  Started in the name of the Cold War and perpetuated with the Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq now in the name of terror.  Endless backfires overseas from CIA operations gone bad.  Now our police have become an occupying army in our cities.

MICHAEL BROWN AND SAINT LOUIS

Saint Louis proudly rose to be the #1 per capita military spending city of the top 25 metro areas as the manufacturer of the F-15, the best fighter plane in the world during the 1991 Gulf War.  But militarization causes crime problems and the empire attitude of power and control.  The Saint Louis County former police chief learned his anti-terrorism from the Israelis, and the militarized response to the protest of the Michael Brown execution by a policeman embarrassed even Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans.  So on August 14, 2014 one hundred US cities held vigils and moments of silence against police overreactions like this one and many others in recent years or months.  Here in Madison, Wisconsin, I called a rally and over 100 people showed up along with three TV cameras and a Capital Times story.  We raised $540 for the funeral expenses of Michael Brown.  Military spending and murder rates are twice as high for the Southern militarized states including civil war Border States and former slave states like Missouri.  But even low military low crime Madison has had three white men shot dead by police under questionable circumstances in the last year.

HOMICIDES AND THE MILITARY

Among the developed countries, the higher the military spending rate the higher the homicide rates.  So when the Cold War ended in 1991, the cutting in half of the military spending share of the economy cut our murder and crime rates in half as well.  But political trends can often run counter to economic ones.  Nixon’s war on drugs started the militarization of our police forces, then we doubled our total prisoners from 1 million in 1990 to 2 million in 2000, exactly when crime and the unemployment rates were dropping.  And in 1997 the 1033 program began offering military hardware to our civilian police forces.  But the big push came after the controlled demolition of three skyscrapers in Manhattan on September 11, 2001, blamed on terrorist commandeered airplanes despite the fact that 1700 degree kerosene aircraft fuel fires cannot melt steel that melts at 2600 degrees.  Despite the fact that freefall collapse would have left a pile of debris fifteen stories high, not the three stories of actual debris that resulted.  Traces of the CIA nano-thermite explosive were everywhere according to peer reviewed papers.  The truth is the first casualty in war.

International graph of murder and the military:

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military

DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY

The agencies making up homeland security had budgets averaging $15 billion a year in the three years from 2000-2002, doubling immediately on forming the new agency to an average of $32 billion the next three years 2003-2005.  That first doubling began the militarization of police forces in earnest.  Then with the NSA spying on all our emails and phones, homeland security jumped up to $69 billion in 2006, with a five year average of $45 billion from 2007 to 2011.  Thanks to all this money armored vehicles started to become standard in small communities of 70,000 people or so.

MILITARY BUILDUP

The military budget increased 50 percent in the three years after 9-11-01, explaining 1.7 million of the 2.8 million manufacturing jobs lost from September 2001 to August 2003.  Trade treaties and outsourcing explain the other 1 million jobs lost.  This military buildup distorted the growth rates around the country, as real estate prices soured in the military buildup states like Connecticut, Texas, California, and Florida.  These later became the leading mortgage fraud states in the coming debacle.  Much later, the military buildup rate of increase suddenly doubled in 2008 as the money for the 2007 Iraq surge finally caught up with the troop activity.  This military burden cracked the fragile fraudulent mortgage market as the unemployment rates steadily increased that year peaking in late 2009.  Economists have calculated the recession beginning in December 2007.  As the steam evaporated from the overheated military buildup economy, the housing market crashes, especially in the military buildup states.

Nature of Military Empire Social Decay:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, June 4), “Militarized Police Problem” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Militarized-Police-Problem,2020231819.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 217 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

Killing Democracy By Trump

Overall

The president continues to his own version of “The World of by and for Trump” as his 16,000 lies create the fiction of the “greatest president ever”.  His first lie was to swear to uphold the constitution, as he pretends to be a king, like the other authoritarian rulers who are his best buddies in Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Philippines, and North Korea.  He and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pursue every chance to stack the courts with right wing activist judges and reward the rich and powerful at the expense of other 99%.  After spending trillions bailing out every imaginable group, Moscow Mitch now wants to bankrupt the states just to rob public employees of their pensions, often taken right out of employee paychecks earned over the decades of an underpaid public career in health care, policing, firefighting, and teaching.

Trump’s World                                                                                         

The president promised we would be so tired of winning that we would beg him to stop.  We are so tired of losing we wish he would quit and just take over for the dying Rush Limbaugh.  He thinks of the government as his and his alone to abuse and corrupt as he directs the military to stay in Trump hotels and blockades Qatar until they give his son-in-law Jared a mortgage on the alligator 666 Fifth Avenue.  He lifts legal restrictions on a key Russian oligarch that helped him steal the 2016 election and lifts restrictions on the Chinese so that they will invest in his Indonesia operations.  Dozens of his staff campaign and cabinet appointees have gone to jail in perhaps the most corrupt administration ever.  Loyalty is Trump’s main value as competence goes by the wayside.  Temporary appointments give Trump the loyalty and lawlessness he wants bypassing congressional confirmation.

Bullying

The president is a great con artist as he perfects the art of kiss up and kick down, intimidating rivals, the press, and the congress with threats to oppose everyone who does not follow his foolish ways and praise him without question.  He keeps the congress in line with his threat to support Trump supporters against all incumbents who waiver even slightly in their support of him, leaving Romney out of a Senate Republican phone call for daring to vote for impeachment.  Bill Maher who gave Obama one million dollars for his re-election would gladly give one million to have Romney instead of Trump as president.

COVID 19

Trump was so determined to prioritize the economy over everything else that he put off for two crucial months action against the Coronavirus putting America in last place fighting the virus compared to other hot spot countries like China, Italy, and Spain.  His refusal to let people off an infected cruise ship shows his fetish with keeping the numbers down on disease cases.  He kept refusing to get testing started seriously for the same corrupt reason, trying to keep his case numbers down rather than fighting the disease by testing tracing and quarantining.  Image over substance as he gaslights his way through every strategic mistake he makes, constantly trying to downplay the virus.  He says the states should take the lead in the fight, then has FEMA confiscate shipments of personal protective equipment going to the states, especially if they are blue states which are constantly shortchanged while red states are oversupplied.  He is constantly seeking to reward states that voted for him and punish states that voted against him regardless of the law and judicial fairness.  He wants the states to bid against FEMA driving up prices so the private sector can make a killing at the expense of government, a clear case of corporate socialism.  Then he invokes the Defense Production Act (he should have been using all along months ago) to absolve pork processing plants of any liability for forcing employees to almost certainly catch the disease, valuing corporate profits over human life.  Thousands have died thanks to his corrupt inaction, and many health care workers have died due to his refusal to use the Defense Production Act to marshal enough personal protective gear and swabs for testing.

Militarism and Corruption

The conservative movement that has been coopted by militarism has continued to follow the unconditional surrender terms of World War II, resorting to an extremism that continues to trample traditional conservative values like local control, freedom, and small business.  Increasingly becoming the party of big military and big business, they value power and control and unitary executive power over congressional power.  Relying on voter suppression they have adopted Southern values over Northern values.  In Wisconsin they forced voters to risk catching coronavirus to vote, hoping liberals would fear the disease more than Trump followers, giving the election to conservatives.  Both the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the United States Supreme Court blocked local courts and the governor from postponing the election like most states did, valuing power over health.  In the tradition of Bush v Gore, Citizens United, and Shelby County they have seized power, suppressed voting, and opened unlimited campaign spending by billionaires, valuing money over people.  Once apposed to a so-called activist Warren Supreme Court, they have become an activist conservative court with very little thought to precedent and justice.  Increasingly, one side has no hope of honest justice, just political hackmen.  Mitch McConnell blocked everything he could from the black president and Trump has reversed every Obama decision regardless of merit.  Abraham Lincoln would not recognize his political party today.

Summary

Vladimir Putin has gotten exactly the chaos he has long sought in American politics, as strong leaders have increasingly bypassed congressional committees and congressional oversight.  In many ways Trump has not so much changed the Republican Party as revealed it for the racism, xenophobia, and authoritarianism of the regular Fox News viewer.  Whether you call it militarism empire or fascism, it operates much the same.  With the extreme inequality and lack of social mobility, America has finally become more of a class-based society than Europe.  With 40% of Americans unable to afford an unexpected $400 bill, the fragility of American society will be increasingly on display in the coming months.  Empire at the breaking point.

Nature of Military Empire Social Decay:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, April 30), “Killing Democracy by Trump” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Killing-Democracy-By-Trump,2020230398.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 207 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

How Did USA Get This Way?

Overall

High Military Spending plateau’s the growth of an empire society leading to social decay and political rigidity.  How did we go from FDR and the Greatest Generation to Trump?  How did we get this way?

Washington’s World

George Washington went home to Mount Vernon after winning the War of Independence from Britain and turned down the offer to become king.  Some thought he was the greatest man in the world to resist such power and control.  His farewell address warned us against foreign entanglements and standing armies in peacetime.  He knew that excessive militarism led to the loss of civil liberties.  This vision lasted about one hundred fifty years 1787-1945.

Turning Point

After becoming the largest power in the world at the beginning of the Twentieth Century, America was reluctant to reverse the policies Washington warned about in his farewell address.  No one challenged his tradition of limiting the presidency to two terms.  The most important office in democracy was considered the status of US citizen, a nation of equals.  It took a Civil War to turn former slaves into citizens, and a World War to give the vote to women.    Nevertheless, after three years of submarine warfare, America finally joined the Great War in Europe in 1917.  Wilson created the League of Nations to prevent another such war, but France had sought an unduly harsh peace treaty against Germany, out of resentment from the Prussian humiliation in 1871 and exhaustion from the carnage of the World War.  America’s banks helped fund the German reparations to the financial dismay of American farmers.  When the top 20% of America owned an automobile and the roaring twenties came to a halt in 1927 and 1928, Hoover sought to resort to Tariffs to protect the farmers.  Tariffs had provided 80% of revenues to the young power on the way up, protecting Northern manufacturers from superior British products to the resentment of the South.  Now as the new number one power higher Tariffs were so greatly resented by Europeans it led to the trade war known as the Great Depression.  Resentments from the Great War led Italy and German to turn to fascism and war again.

New Dominance

Winning World War Two established America as the new world hegemon, a kinder and gentler hegemon that established the United Nations to share power and stop future wars.  In 1947 the National Security Act was adopted changing everything.  Washington’s fears about foreign entanglements were replaced by the United Nations and NATO, and his fears about a standing army in peacetime were replaced by the National Security Act.  Because of these rejections of George Washington’s traditions, both the War Department and the Joint Chiefs of Staff opposed the 1947 National Security Act.  The President and Secretary of State pushed it through.  The pentagon wanted to continue the American tradition of a token army between wars and volunteers to flesh out the army during wars.  The 1947 National Security Act changed the defensive Department of War into the offensive Department of Defense.  Note the beginning of newspeak as warned about by George Orwell’s final book 1984.  The 1947 Act also established the Central Intelligence Agency which immediately established Operation Mockingbird to control the domestic press.  Eisenhower thought the idea of keeping some of the world wartime machinery around was a good idea, and the standing army became the standard fare of the Cold War between Truman and Stalin.  America was becoming the empire society, a slightly kinder and gentler version of the British Empire it had once defeated in 1781.  The General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) went into effect January 1, 1948 reversing the trade war of the Great Depression leading to the postwar prosperity of Europe and America.

Military Corruption

Eisenhower soon became aware of the corruption of the military industrial complex.  His speeches of 1953 and 1961 were very similar.  The fierce scramble of local support for “defense” money was obvious and shocking to him.  What he had done with the 1947 Act became largely irreversible with his doubling of the military budget from pre-Korea to post Korea.  Even the Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu in the Art of War (5th Century BC) recognized the disastrous economics of war, yet because of the 1936 Keynesian economic theory, the notion that government spending can stimulate the economy was falsely extended to include military spending.  This notion continues with all modern US presidents, as evidence to the contrary is dismissed or ignored by the so-called mainstream.  The much closer and systematic evaluation of Peace Economics (1986) establishes that the local economics of military spending is offset by the lack of output from the so-called military factory and the international lowering of capital investment by the size of each nation’s military budget as shown by Ruth Leger Sivard in 1981 and 1983.  Further evidence shows that manufacturing jobs are reduced by military buildups and increased by military builddowns.  Politics have focused on the positive local effect and ignored the negative national effect of military spending.  Mainstream economists wrongly believe in both in a general and non-specific way, accepting the military Keynesianism locally and immediately, while considering the negative impact as vaguely in the future without a mechanism to connect the two seemingly contradictory beliefs.  Peace Economics has clarified every aspect of this relationship with one study after another.  These key off the model that uses the federal deficit to represent the Keynesian lift to the economy and military sequestering of capital investment for non-economic growth purposes (the military economic drag).  Both use the military spending, one (the deficit) for local stimulus and the other (military spending) for LOST (diverted) capital and economic growth.  Manufacturing suffers when the military goes up and prospers when the military goes down.  Details here:  https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages.

Extremism in Politics

The Spirit Level (2010) documents many factors that correlate better to national military spending levels than to income inequality levels.  Their date confirms my thesis that social factors decay with prolonged high levels of military spending (my definition of empire).  Empire leads to economic stagnation leading to high crime, prisoners, overweight, diabetes, mental health, teen births, infant mortality, and low social mobility. The economic stagnation of military spending makes people desperate and susceptible to the divide and conquer tactics of racism, ethnocentrism, and xenophobia.  The local stimulus (at the unrecognized expense of manufacturing areas) becomes a powerful tool for legislative power and control over local economic growth and other legislators.  Government spending has long been used to reward friends and punish enemies, but military spending is flexibly and uniquely and unequally distributed among the states to a level of power not met by any other government program.  Creating enemies is essential to this process.  Over time this divide has been exploited by the more military oriented political party.  Over time the Republican party has become more authoritative and less inclined to winks nods and dog whistles and more overt as shown by President Trump.  Thanks to the Reagan policies of low taxes on the rich and media opinions not required to be balanced (“fairness doctrine”) the rich have left the other 99% behind (no wage growth for 40 years) while unlimited propaganda is now possible through Fox News and Rush Limbaugh.  Using bullying techniques Trump has moved steadily closer to a complete lack of accountability and closer to dictatorship with over 16,000 lies documented by the New York Times and Washington Post.  Increasingly he resembles Caligula, the one truly crazy Roman emperor.  Rome went from republic to dictatorship and America is on that same path.

Self-Defeating Evolutionary Stages of Military Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, April 21), “How Did USA Get This Way?” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/How-Did-USA-Get-This-Way,2020230398.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 249 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

COVID 19 and Real Economy

Overall

Circumstances make certain great events more likely in certain periods of time.  Health and making a livelihood are basic to all human life in the modern world, and they have always been related to each other.  The pandemic crisis has made this very self-evident.  Even the timing of major wars, major pandemics, and major economic changes are cyclic in nature and cyclic with natural changes.

Economic Connection

South Korea had the first case of coronavirus the same January day as the United States.  But while they actively tested and isolated, Trump used wishful thinking to downplay the risks for two months, thinking he was protecting the economy when in fact he was endangering the economy.  While the Koreans used the World Health Organization test, the president’s America First economic strategy failed to develop a US test for crucial lost weeks.  Then in empire-like classic control orientation, the Center for Disease Control would not let the private sector and states use alternate tests extensively.  Then with the health care system facing overload, the president refused to compel production by the private sector and refused to do national purchasing, instead leaving it up to the states.  This led to bidding up the cost as 50 states and even the federal FEMA each outbid each other creating windfall profits for the business sector.  A grifter himself, the president was comfortable with this taking advantage by his political allies.  This is like the Republican approach of letting the drug companies charge much more in America than in other countries.  This lets greed win out over need, creating confusion as some states can’t compete.  Trump favors socialism for businesses, not for employees.  Trump then blames state and local governments for lack of planning for this unplanned pandemic, rather than helping those businesses and their employees like every other country in the developed world.

Long Cycle Connection

The 54-year natural economic and war cycle creates a certain atmosphere of tensions in certain periods as the cycle evolves over time.  Thus civil rights peak events happen around the lessor war at the economic growth rate peak of the cycle. Then as the growth phase ends around maximum wealth accumulation at the end of the high growth period, we see major wars and pandemic peaks.  Thus the Spanish flu kills tens of millions in the 1918 World War period, starting in Kansas and spread to Europe by American troops sent over there to fight the war.  Then the Hong Kong flu in 1968 is carried to the United States by troops returning from the Vietnam War.  There is not a real great war occurring now in 2020 but the trade war started in 2019 has weakened China to the point of originating the COVID 19 pandemic currently ravaging the world.  Globalization and plane travel have made easy transmission of this disease worldwide affecting all major trading countries.

Smoking Connection

Underlying physical weaknesses are leading to death in five percent of pandemic cases worldwide.  One US nurse admits that only 20% of those on respirators ever get off them. US death rate is 2.4%. Emphysema, Asthma, Diabetes, immune compromised, etc. are the reasons often given, but smoking seems to be a major cause, especially for younger deaths.  Vaping scars the lungs of the young, leaving them especially vulnerable to a disease known to do the same.  Italians smoke a lot and look at that disaster.

War Connection

Wars develop in periods of political and economic stress.  While wars usually separate countries, a common enemy can bring nations together.  Global warming and the current pandemic have done the latter.  The Defense Production Act of 1950 Korean War era is finally now being used to fight the pandemic as Trump tries to claim wartime presidency to aid in his 2020 reelection.  Carnage in the hospitals resembles the carnage of the battlefield in war.  Just as war is a life and death issue, so too is the pandemic.  Just as empire can lead to decline, the result does not have to be war, a wiser hegemon can pursue global unity instead with all that power.  The military organization can contribute to field hospitals and supplies for the pandemic fight.

Red States At Peril

On the March 31st Rachel Maddow Show it was reported that the following mostly deep red states had no statewide stay-at-home order:  Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Arkansas.  Only Nevada is a swing state carried by Hillary Clinton, the rest are solid Trump states.  Further she reported the following states had partial stay at home orders:  Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming.  These are also deeply red Trump states except for the two swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania, with Texas and Georgia also moving in the swing state direction in 2018.  All these 17 states will likely see explosive growth in COVID 19 cases and deaths as their medical care is overloaded.  These seventeen states include a majority of seven of the eleven former Confederate States of America states and former border slave state Missouri.  Trump may have unwittingly targeted his own followers.  April 1 the governors of Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi relented and finally imposed restrictions to enhance social distancing.

Malignant Narcissism

President Trump has been evaluated to be a malignant narcissistic personality by psychologist friends of Al Franken.  The Donald believes he can lie (16,000 in first three years) and gaslight his way through any situation, he is reactive daily and never plans things out well, thinking the future will take care of itself, dominating the news and leaving his opponent out of the debate.  He punishes his enemies and rewards his friends continuously as his personal needs are paramount over everything else.  He counts on creating his own alternate reality.  True reality will not go away, despite the best of his ability to create illusions. Trump acts in crazy ways like the Roman emperor Caligula, the one emperor considered crazy, hence this odd behavior may be a result of advanced stages of empire decline, the social decay that accompanies the economic stagnation that results from large portions of an economy devoted to military control of the world around them instead of producing economic goods for the general population.

Extremism

The evolutionary pattern of a society entering a deep state of empire completely suggests that political extremism is a long-term result.  Eisenhower discovered to his dismay that a large peacetime army drove military location politics to push for more military regardless of the nationwide need.  This process eventually evolved into a partisan choice, and the one party blindly interested in economic growth regardless of consequences became identified with the military budget so much that the mutual cooptation of military spending took hold of congress and the presidency.  Even the party primarily interested in other than military spending had their presidential candidates coopted by the need to carry at least some of the high military spending states to win the presidency.  The power of allocating the military budget then so dominated the political process that options narrowed, and political choices became more extreme.  From Reagan to Trump as more democratic protections were removed, extremism kept growing until Trump came along and used extremism to achieve office.  Now America is highly polarized.

Summary

Blind loyalty to serving one half of the political spectrum at the expense of the other half helped elect Trump, the most extreme president in modern times, jeopardizing the balanced approach to governance generally followed by presidents since George Washington.  Washington voluntarily turned down kingship and set the pattern of presidents limiting themselves to two four-year terms and avoiding foreign entanglements.  Now America has the standing army Washington feared and avoided and leads a worldwide financial and military empire, seemingly losing our way.  Once we opposed empire to gain our independence, now we impose the Washington Consensus worldwide.

Booklet Included in Peace Economics Video:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, April 4), “COVID 19 and Real Economy” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/COVID-19-and-Real-Economy,2020229811.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as their following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 249 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

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