Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the month “January, 2018”

How Empire America Emerged

There are two distinct versions of America in American history, the America before World War Two and the America after World War Two.  The rise to a world power status began in 1898 and peaked in 1945.  The transition to the complete empire state started by Truman was then completed under Ronald Reagan, 1980 to 1988.  Trump may unwittingly be ending American dominance over the world and may usher in a humbling return to a new kind of international normalcy.  The American century may give way to the Chinese century.

World Power Beginnings

The 1898 Spanish American War started out as just another Monroe Doctrine war in Cuba.  But when the Naval Secretary was out of town, the deputy Theodore Roosevelt ordered the fleet into Manila Bay, and next thing you know US invaded the Philippines, making the US an international power. George Washington warned the US about international entanglements, but the die was cast.  Next thing you know we get involved in an European war, two years after the Lusitania “passenger ship” half loaded with munitions bound for Britain was sunk by a German U-boat.  Wilson waited until after the 1916 re-election, campaigning on peace, to declare war in April 1917, the first full month of the second term.  German Americans were vilified as was Progressive Republican Senator Robert La Follette of half German Wisconsin, who opposed the war and started the Progressive Magazine.  Still, after both wars America returned to the low 1% GDP military America had always had in peacetime.  The founding figures rightly feared the negative impacts of excessive militarism, preferring a minimal peacetime military filled with volunteers during wartime.

Causes of World War Two

In a normal hegemonic war, the largest economy normally wins, in the First World War that was Germany, with Britain second and France third.  But America was the world leading economy, twice the size of Germany.  When Germany finally defeated Russia and brought those troops to the Western front, they finally began winning the war.  American entry into the war changed all that, awarding the victory to an undeserving France, bitter from the 1870 Prussian victory and the huge losses of the war, where for the first time in 500 years a major European war cost three times the usual 1.5% of the European population, with a whopping 5% of Europe dying in the war.  A young John Maynard Keynes, future economic genius, was on the British team working on the Versailles peace treaty.  He wrote a book in 1919 predicting the peace treaty would lead to another war.  He accurately foresaw the second world war.  With American banks financing the German reparations debt, American farmers shared some of the German hurt.  Hoover in 1928 campaigned on relief for American farmers in the form of the Smoot Hawley Tariff, triggering the trade war that caused the Great Depression and weakened the farm based French economy so much that they later easily fell to Germany in 1940.  Should have listened to George Washington about foreign entanglements.

Entry into World War Two

Churchill and Roosevelt needed some way to get peace loving America into the war in 1941. They had cracked the German and Japanese codes, so they knew the enemies’ plans.  The key was the Philippines.  With that Asian US entanglement, the US was sitting astride the sea lanes between Japan and the Indonesian oil fields.  In October 1941 the US stopped selling oil to Japan.  This forced Japan to take Indonesia to get oil for the Chinese war.  Japan, seeing a collision with the US as inevitable, then decided to gamble on crippling the American fleet in Pearl Harbor in a combined surprise attack throughout the South Pacific.  But because the US knew the plans, Roosevelt made sure the aircraft carriers were safely at sea when the attack came, leaving obsolete dreadnoughts in the harbor for emotional impact to whip up a war fever.

End of World War Two

Truman was US president for the last months of World War Two.  Japan was defeated and demoralized, ready to surrender, when the atom bomb became available.  Roosevelt had urged the Russians to help with Japan so when they finally entered that front in Korea, Truman wanted a demonstration of the atomic bomb to threaten the Soviets.  The war in Europe had ended with 10 million German troops on the Russian front and 5 million German troops on the Western front.  When the mayor of Hiroshima asked why the bomb was dropped on them, Truman used Pearl Harbor as his reason why.  The Cold War became the rationale for the high levels of military spending at the five or ten percent of the economy level, instantly making America an empire.  The 1947 National Security Act launched the Cold War economically.  The large standing peacetime army avoided for America’s first century and a half gave way to the rationale of empire, with the false illusion of military Keynesianism pretending America could afford it.  Eisenhower Truman and the Secretary of State outvoted the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Secretary of War who wanted to continue the founding persons conservative approach.  The Act changed the Department of War to the Department of Defense and created the CIA which immediately established Operation Mockingbird to control the media.  Like when Rome went to the emperor system, the imperial presidency and Pax Americana were born.

Cold War America

Covert Operations of the CIA was the American mechanism of controlling the world.  For about a generation after World War Two, the old America still existed culturally, but after 1980 the empire was firmly put in charge.  President Kennedy tried to reverse course with the Peace Corp, the Alliance for Progress in Latin America, and plans to pull out of Vietnam, abolish the CIA covert operations, and a negotiated mutual disarmament with the Soviet Union.  Khrushchev cried when Kennedy died, and Johnson stopped the peace plans.  Brezhnev deposed Khrushchev in 1964 and immediately began the military buildup that doomed the Soviet Union in the eighties.  When the Germans doubled military spending in the sixties after the Berlin Wall of 1961, that decade is remembered by the Germans as the lost decade.

Problems of Empire                                                                                                                         

Development tends to stall and many social indicators tend to worsen as empire gains a tighter grip over a society.  These changes tend to be closely related to changes in military spending, worse when military spending increases and better when military spending decreases.  Ronald Reagan worked for the number one nuclear weapons contractor, General Electric, for many years with his Death Valley Days show in the fifties.  He implemented many of the changes that have haunted America to this very day.  His Budget Director David Stockman called his 25 % income tax cut plan a “Trojan Horse” to bring the top tax rate down 60% from 70% down to 28%.  This has led to quadrupling the income of the top 1% over the next thirty years.  Meanwhile he fired the PATCO air traffic controllers for going on strike, even though they had donated to his campaign.  Then the middle class who got only a 15% income tax cut from Reagan have had no gains since 1973.  He shamelessly promoted the military, blaming Carter for the second recession in three years. The relatively mild Carter oil shock recession of 1980 have been followed by the 1981 recovery year 2.1% growth.  Reagan’s biggest military increase in peacetime US history in fiscal year 1982, took the 1981 recovery year back into recession with a  highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression of  10.8% for the year or 11.2% for the worst month.   Even the 2008-2009 Great Recession only reached 10.2% unemployment rate for its worst month.  Republicans blamed that Bush recession on Obama to recapture the congress and 26 states in 2010 and lock in control for ten years with gerrymandering.  Reagan also abolished the “equal time” rule for political coverage by the media in 1987 leading directly to the rise of Rush Limbaugh and the FOX News channel giving Trump a propaganda channel.  Russia has used bots for years to promote American division through the issues of guns, immigration, and white supremacy and along comes Trump to take advantage of these new propaganda vehicles.  Russian donations have tripled NRA funding from $10 billion four years before to $30 billion to help the Trump election.  The Cold War and Reagan policies still haunt America.  While America leads the developed world in 16 negative socioeconomic categories, US is still #1 in military spending with triple the economic percentage of other developed countries and even the rest of the world combined.  A major cost of empire is the economic and social decay that comes with the slow collapse of empire.

For additional information please see these thirteen pages about empire ideas:

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, January 28), “How Empire America Emerged” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2018153441.aspx

Academics, Politicians, can nominate Robert Reuschlein by February 1st for Nobel Peace Prize:

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,                            Nominated Vetted 2016, and Given Odds for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017,                  Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize November 5th.
Contact:, Info:

Interdisciplinary Shutdowns

Just as in politics it takes a lot of different points of view to come up with a good compromise, in academics and many other professions multiple views are crucial.  In my dissertation, I discovered the average Midwest US College with a peace studies program had ten interdisciplinary programs.  Much lip service is given to interdisciplinary work; but most colleges still reward tenure based on the narrow needs of the discipline the academic comes from or is housed in.  One device to overcome this problem is to give interdisciplinary programs a voice on tenure decisions.  It would be good if all the interdisciplinary programs were represented by a department of interdisciplinary programs or a dean of interdisciplinary programs.  Some examples of the benefits of interdisciplinary thinking follow.

Religions Example

In my younger years I experimented with five difference religions.  This gave me much greater perspective on the common practice of prayer.  I was once practicing my Buddhist chanting when I compared notes with my landlady’s saying of the rosary.  The benefits were remarkably similar.  Then it struck me that meditation, prayer, chanting were all similar practices and mental disciplines with similar benefits.  Having multiple religious views allows one to better comprehend the great truths about ourselves and humanity such as the golden rule, found in all religions.

Physics Example

Locating a point in three-dimensional Euclidean space requires triangulation.  Even our eyes work this way, as two eyes allow depth perception estimates of how far away things are.  Likewise, in space, two observatories or measurements of one observatory taken from different parts of earth’s orbit over time can determine the distance of an object far away in space.

Peace Studies Example

Like the historians who think biography is history, my peace studies colleagues too often believe in individual efforts and personal change are the keys to peace, and too often underestimate the role of institutions like the military industrial complex.  When they do look at military spending they overemphasize alternative ways to spend that money.  They underestimate the lack of human economic progress because the capital and research diverted to the military undermines the civilian manufacturing sector ability to grow and provide better jobs and products for the rest of us, as seen in the strong German economy.  Opportunity cost is a lost concept on them.  Too often the humanities perspective denigrates and ignores the business perspective.  And too often the business perspective also only focuses on the money and ignores the direction the society is moving, expanding our horizons or futilely trying to control our enemies.  Too often looking at our enemies as evil rather than misguided leads us into overreactions that only serve the purposes of multiplying them.

Peace Economics Example

Economists, caught up in the history of economic thought, focus too much on microeconomics, believing that macroeconomics will never become a science.  Too use the analogy of physical matter phases of gas liquid and solid, economics starts with a focus on individual decisions (gas) building them up into business decisions (liquid flow of society).  They fail to see “solid state” of peace economics that lost capital sent to the military stalls growth while deficit spending adds to growth in the annual records.  In the longer term the land ocean 54-year cycle leads directly into the same economic long cycle and the major war cycle.  In the medium term the Juglar capital investment cycle of about nine years balances out the annual errata.  Together these forces produce a scientific model of economic productivity growth.  Without the precision in the historical record, economics would still be in the squishy liquid phase, with proverbial “too many factors” preventing the movement into a new level of science.

54 Year Long Cycle Example

Global warming science has been so captured by a mutually peer reviewing in group of scientists that they claim 97% certainty about the greenhouse effect.  However, I have audited four local global warming scientists’ classes and learned how the right hand doesn’t know what the left hand is doing.  Undeniably there is a Greenhouse Effect and Earth could be an ice ball without it.  But I have witnessed some of the scientists distorting the record to prove their points and to avoid healthy criticisms.  They have shown an unhealthy defensiveness against new ideas thanks to pressure from the fossil fuel industries.  One student paper showed the model used in class projects leveled off in the second century of warming without changing the trajectory of fossil fuel usage.  Students were instructed to model for one century only.  But even though energy models clearly show a huge amount of solar radiation immediately evaporates water when it hits the surface, they stubbornly resist analyzing the differential impact over land versus ocean as I have.  Even though my modeling is obviously true, few share my understanding except for a World Future Society audience of fifty in Chicago on July 20, 2013.  Other less sophisticated audiences are just stunned.  I have 56 repeat events roughly equally divided in the three basic categories of natural, economic, and political (mostly wars) with 20 precise fits to the year and 95% accuracy overall.  I have three levels of different proofs for each transmission mechanism from natural to economic to political.  But when I talk to climate scientists they fail to recognize the work of industrial engineers like Frederick Taylor, businesspeople like JW Forrester and economists like Sivard, Kondratiev, and Juglar. When I explain anomalies of the temperature record are easily explained by my evaporation theory they look like deer caught in the headlights and move on rather than try to understand me.  Few people can match the nine fields of specialization I have, so they remain restricted to their narrow fields and can’t keep up with me, except for the renaissance people who have nominated me for the Nobel Peace Prize.


The breadth scope and complexity and basic research style of my work could not be matched without my nine fields of specialty of math, science, wargaming, engineering, accounting, business, politics, peace economics, and long cycle theory.  And I left out history art and religion.  Interdisciplinarity allows me to make connections, plug holes, and otherwise see around corners that others do not see.  Leadership experience teaches me the art of making complex decisions and understanding the psychology of other leaders, such as the war decision.  The world will change dramatically for the better with less wars in the future when leaders recognize the self-defeating nature of excessive military spending levels that leave a nation with a much smaller economy to win future wars with.  And long cycle theory tells us when to expect those future major wars. Together these things change the high military mantra of peace through strength into the reverse low military high growth mantra of strength through peace.  Academics and politicians please consider nominating me to the Norwegian Nobel Committee at


For additional information please see this key seven pages about my ideas:

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, January 1), “Interdisciplinary Insights” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2018153181.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and Given Odds for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017

Possible Favorite in 2018 November 5th.
Contact:, Info:

Trump Russia Fire and Fury

Trump Russian Timeline

The timeline of events and important facts of the Trump Russia story are often mentioned only once while the media overemphasize other facts.  This account features those lesser known facts and assumes many of the media redundant facts.  The British spy dossier points out that Russia tries to cultivate Western businesspeople and had been doing so with Trump for at least five years by 2016.  That implies since 2011, two years prior to the Trump Miss Universe selection in Moscow 2013.  Then in April May 2015 the CIA noticed an unusually large amount of communication between Trump Tower and Russia before the June 2015 announcement of the Trump presidential run.  Rachel Maddow noted on her show that Trump signed a letter of intent to build a Trump Tower in Moscow the morning of the third Republican presidential debate in October 2015.  Rachel further noted that Trump was unusually quiet in that debate.

The new buzzword is that Trump is a transactional person with no permanent values, always the business deal maker.  Truth means nothing to him as he reaches 2000 lies in his first year in office.  So, when seasoned politicals would have called the FBI when Russians reached out to his campaign, his operatives all acted opportunistically instead.  So, when Papadopoulos reached out to the Russians shortly after the March DNC hackings, he quickly reported to Sam Clovis in April 2016, campaign co-chair, and then leaked the connection to the Australian British ambassador in May.  That escalated to the famous June 9th meeting with Donald Trump jr., Paul Manafort, and Jared Kushner and a Russian delegation of five led by a lawyer.  Two days before Donald Trump sr. promised a new dirt on Hillary in a major speech soon.  Experts suggest there is no way Don jr. would not have immediately told Don sr. because that’s the way they operate.  The quid pro quo of it all is the view of Russia by Trump as a vast market to reach, rather than a traditional enemy of the USA.  Then he lets Manafort, who successfully managed a pro-Russian presidential campaign in Ukraine, move to take arming the Ukrainians out of the Republican Platform.  Much later, when the senate votes 98-2 for Russian sanctions on July 27, 2017, Trump signs the bill but does nothing to implement it.

The right-wing spin machine has been trying to blame that British former spy dossier for the FBI counterintelligence investigation begun in July 2016.  That is incorrect; a foreign policy advisor from the Trump campaign leaked the story over drinks with the Australian ambassador to Britain in May 2016, four weeks after his April visit to Russia where he learned of the March 2016 Russian hacking.  That Australian ambassador then reported to the US about the Russian hack of Hillary campaign related emails from the DNC.  So, at that point it was known that the Russians had illegally hacked the emails for the express purpose of helping the Trump campaign.  So, when Trump suggested in July 2016 that the Wikileaks material might have come from a 400-pound man living in his parents’ basement in Ohio, that was a red herring lie.  Donald Trump junior was in constant contact with WikiLeaks and knew full well the Russian source of those emails.  Diane Feinstein has clobbered the anti-Mueller anti-FBI anti-Hillary attempt to obstruct or distract justice by the House and Senate Republicans, especially Devin Nunes and Jim Jordan in the House.  Her courage releasing the Fusion GPS transcript of testimony about the Dossier explodes the Republican false narrative about those events.

Jared Kushner oversaw the Trump ground campaign.  Shortly after he met with the Russian ambassador in September, in early October 2016 massive file transfers occurred between Trump Tower New York and the Russian money laundering Deutsche Bank.  This is probably the source of necessary voter microtargeting data needed for the fake news bots used by Russia to help carry swing key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Kushner was renegotiating a loan with that same bank at that same time, but the volume of data for that would be much less.  Both Donald Trump and Jared Kushner bank there as the bank recently settled a $10 billion Russian money laundering fine.  Together with Republican voter suppression laws and vote total suppression in Democratic areas this was enough to swing the election by 70,000 votes in those three states, despite Hillary’s three million popular vote majority nationwide.  For example, an estimated 200,000 voters in Wisconsin were disenfranchised by the new voter ID law there, and 85,000 people from mainly Democratic areas in Michigan mysteriously did not vote for president.

“Fire and Fury” Fallout by Michael Wolff

The new book shows the universal opinion of Trump staff that Trump is not qualified for the job and not very intelligent.  However, other recent Republican presidents since Nixon are estimated to have only average intelligence.  Still the low opinion of staff is not there for Ford Reagan and the Bushes like it appears to be for Trump.  Bannon’s humiliation may end up working for Trump as political figures need to be either feared or loved to succeed, and this episode shows Trump should be feared.


Trump wants to do business with Russia and admires other authoritarian figures like Putin in Russia and Erdogan in Turkey.  He is a figure of resistance against the browning of America.  He does not understand the essentials of democracy like checks and balances, a free press, and an independent judiciary.  He resists the cold war bureaucracy of the modern military industrial complex while championing the cause of the military.  He supports military strength while resisting foreign policy orthodoxy.  These impulses have driven him into the arms of Putin the master spy manipulator and the current cooperation with Russia to get elected and to make deals around the world.  This puts him squarely in the sights of the obstruction of justice problem and possible impeachment.

Presidents and Emperors

Parallels exist between the American and Roman Empires.  Nero fiddled while Rome burned.  George Bush jr. fiddled at a fundraiser while New Orleans drowned from Katrina.   Emperor Caligula lasted four years and was considered the crazy emperor.  His name comes from his reputation for small boots.  Trump is the crazy president noted for his small hands.

Nobel Prize Update

The same usual pattern of viewing all my press releases in a row tipped me off that the Norwegian Nobel Committee was interested in my nomination.  That same pattern recurred 12 days, 10 days, and 1 day before the last announcement October 6th, 2017.  So, I came very close last time.  Then November 3rd and 10th both Fridays, tipped me off that they may have had buyer’s remorse not picking me last time, with 5 German and 3 French views on those two days, where my assigned committee member is located as Secretary General of the Council of Europe.  Evidently Thorbjorn Jagland works in Strasbourg France and may also connect to the internet across the river in Germany on occasion.  February 1st is the deadline for nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Associate Professors of Social Sciences and related areas as well as government officials and members of national assemblies are among the many eligible to nominate.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee has launched an on-line nomination form.  Please read more here:  I thank those who have nominated me the last two years and anyone who does again this time.          

For additional information about election stealing in the USA:

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, January 1), “Trump Russia Fire and Fury” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2018152922.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact:, Info:

Peace & Security Economists

The following report was published in the November 2003 Newsletter of “Economists for Peace and Security”.  It is typical of the differences between my science of economics and the traditional nature of far left economists who still stubbornly cling to the notion that economics is a social science.  It’s all just a matter of degree and perspective.  Water can be gas, a liquid, or a solid.  Economics is like the gas state at the individual level and like the liquid state at the business level.  When economists say there will never be a science of economics they really mean there will never be a solid state for economics.  But when solid state like qualities are found in macroeconomics as in my 20th and 21st century modeling, economists of all stripes are inclined to stick to their training rather than accept a new truth.  Even a hard science like physics can resemble the social sciences at the quantum physics level. But without the uncertainty of the Schrodinger wave equation we can not explain the solid state circuit board of all our modern electronics.  Uncertainty becomes certainty as activity reaches modern levels of trillions of dollars and billions of people.  All we have to lose is our illusions and build new models from scratch and common sense as an engineer and accountant would.  This was written before my 2009 doctorate.

War and Empire: The Political Economy of US Militarism by Robert Reuschlein

Meeting from August 23-26 2003, members of the Union of Radical Political Economists, URPE, considered war and empire. The David Gordon Lecture was given by Michael Perelman of Cal State Chico on War, Empire, and Economic Decline. He said empire emerges with weakening of the economy. (I would take this a step further to say that “empire” with high levels of military spending causes a chronically weakened economy.) He went on to say the US was outsourcing production to concentrate on distribution, and that deindustrialization was acceptable to the public. (I find this an inevitable result of wasting key resources on the military, thus hollowing out the technological base of the economy to leave only the service and distribution sectors at world class competitive levels as “empire decay” sets in.)

He alluded to strategic overreach, saying “ever new acquisitions bring ever new frontiers of risk.” He said the military would not save the economy, that postwar busts follow wartime booms, and he mused that WWII might have marked a height for demand helped by war. (But I say the 1946 economy was the same size as that of 1941, setting America back five years, and that the manufacturing productivity growth rate for the forties was 40 percent below average, suggesting four lost years, most likely the war years. Of course others suffered even more: Russia was set back 8 years, Germany 13 years, and Japan 17 years by the war.) He said the military squanders talented resources making civilian industry less competitive.

Other speakers were Bob Pollin, Alan Campbell, David Laibman, and Paddy Quick. Pollin, who will soon host the URPE office at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, anchored a Sunday morning panel on The Effects of War and Empire at Home. The speakers were good; it’s just that they all seemed to agree that military spending stimulates the economy, a point for which I find precious little evidence. (Even in World War II, when war bonding failed to keep up with war spending in the third and fourth years, the economy slowed and then halted. So I believe that deficit and adrenaline war booms happen in spite of a military drag on the economy, not because of military spending.)

Pollin’s lecture discussed the Clinton years as a 36 percent cut in the military and a 10 percent to 20 percent drop in social programs producing the surplus: that’s the peace dividend. He argued that the stock market boom helped boost private consumption from 62 to 68 percent of the economy, creating the growth wave as local government grew and federal government shrank from 22 to 18 percent. He thinks the best way to stimulate the economy would be for the federal government to bail out the states. Nothing in his lecture suggested the negative effects of military spending as outlined by Michael Perelman. Pollin believes in military Keynesianism, ignoring the possibility that large cuts in military spending after the end of the Cold War propelled the nineties boom. He sees military spending as a political negative but an economic positive.

Alan Campbell was the coordinator of workshops and plenaries. The group is certainly egalitarian, and tries to give everyone a workshop. He also presented a slide show demonstrating a rich understanding of the Cuban economy.

David Laibman used his thorough grasp of the ins and outs of macroeconomic analysis for an imaginative workshop showing aggregate supply and demand models with their sundry price level variables and feedback loops.

My workshop on the “Social Decay of Empire” focused on the ways societies with high military spending become stagnant and frustrated internally.

Robert Reuschlein, a member of ECAAR, is an MBA engineer and CPA and a war-gaming mathematician who has published and spoken widely on issues of war and economics. See

Economists for Peace and Security


For additional information please see this Published Article (with details added):

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, January 1), “Economists Peace & Security”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2018152413.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact:, Info:

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