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Archive for the month “September, 2014”

Twelve Stages of Empire

#1. Isolation and Growth. A non empire society with promise can grow if isolated from older militarized neighbors and allowed to devote resources to economic growth rather than military spending.
#2. Economic Dominance. The growing society eventually overtakes the slower growing militarized economies around it and becomes dominant economically.
#3. Military Domination War. Economic domination leads to military domination after war between the top two economic powers. Usually the other power has been dominant but has limited its growth through militarism allowing the new power to catch up and overtake it.
#4. Military Control of Others. Military domination leaves the new power in an unstable position, usually leading to maintaining high levels of peacetime military power in the mistaken belief that it is now a rich society and can afford to maintain a higher level of military spending.
#5. Economic Control of Others. The new power can dominate now both militarily and economically and proceeds to do so.
#6. Military: Source of Political and Economic Power Internally. The military now becomes a dominant internal force and begins to dominate and control politically and economically within its own original society.
#7. Destination for the Young. The new dominant society attracts aspiring young people from around the world who want to be a part of the highest level of civilization.
#8. Military Industrial Complex Dominates Government. The high levels of military spending lead to the formation of a military industrial complex that turns its dependency on the government around and starts to dominate and control the government.
#9. Generating Wars to Dominate Internally and Externally. The new military economy justifies itself to the larger community by generating and rationalizing new wars to increase its domination both internally and externally.
#10. Economy Erodes as Scientists, Engineers, and Capital Wasted. The economy erodes with the new high levels of military spending as the best resources of scientific talent, engineering talent, and capital investment are consumed in the nonproductive military economy.
#11. Workforce and Society Stagnate and Change. The new slower growing economy that emerges now demands a “sideways” workforce to manage the stagnation. Soon the whole society changes to meet the new situation. The command and control nature of the military reinforces these internal changes. Crime, poor health, and income inequality grow.
#12. Collapse or Replacement. The now collapsing society can salvage some of its former glory by abandoning expensive overseas entanglements, or seeking another society to take over its formal role of dominance. New international institutions can help make either task easier.

For more information about how these twelve points apply to America:
https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message 608-230-6640
for more info http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy 1999 available as $10 ebook)

10 Big Evaporation Impacts

#1. COOLING OUR BODIES. Evaporation of sweat cools us down in the summer time when it’s too hot for us otherwise.
#2. COOLING OCEAN MORE THAN LAND. 85% of solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth is used to vaporize water. It’s a higher percentage, 90% over ocean, and a lower percentage, about 73% over land, due to the lack of water over land. The remainder heats up the ocean only 10%, but almost triple, 27% over land. So the land heats up much quicker than the ocean.
#3. COOLING TROPICAL FOREST MORE THAN DESERT. Since plants are 91% water and human are 67% water, when plants transpire it’s like when we breathe, and either way it adds to the water vapor. Deserts have very little water, so they heat up very much, while forests add water vapor to the clouds overhead and enhance the clouds and rains over those forests, cooling them down.
#4. COOLING BRAZIL MORE THAN EGYPT. The Amazon tropical rain forest helps keep Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, a cool 73 degrees Fahrenheit year round average, while the Sahara desert keeps Cairo, Egypt, a hot 88 degrees year round average, so that both tropical cities have a 15 degree difference in temperature, the difference between hot desert and cool rain forest.
#5. COOLING THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MORE THAN THE NORTHERN. Discounting the polar regions, three times as much land is in the Northern Hemisphere as the Southern. So before the 44,000 miles ocean current system moderates things, the North is slightly hotter than the South.
#6. CAUSING THE SEASONS TO BE STRONGER IN THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH. So the January July seasonal spread is three times in the land heavy North as the ocean heavy South, 27 degrees to 9 degrees Fahrenheit.
#7. COOLING NORTH AMERICA MORE THAN EUROPE. Because hot and cold will level out over time with hot ocean waters moving towards cooler land to the far North, the Gulf Stream warms up Europe while the Japan Current warms up Japan. On the back leg of both currents, the California Current and the Labrador Current cool off America. So the seasonality of America is 40 degrees, Europe 30 degrees, even though Europe is much farther North than America. Southern Europe Rome is at about the same latitude as Northern America New York and Chicago, yet America has much colder winters.
#8. MAKING THE SAHARA DESERT THE HIGH SOLAR RADIATION SPOT OVER LAND. Radiation maps of the Earth show the hot spot runs from the Sahara Desert to India, the central area of the Eurasian African supercontinent, where there is most of the Earth’s land in one huge glob. By comparison, the Americas of the Western Hemisphere are much more surrounded with water than the land heavy Eastern Hemisphere that has more than twice the land.
#9. MAKING THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN THE HIGH SOLAR RADIATION SPOT OVER OCEAN. The equatorial wind belt builds up clouds and storms from off the continent of Latin America to the South China seas, giving China twice the rain of America. The radiation spot here is lighter than the Sahara land spot due to the lesser heating rates over oceans and the cloud cover from all that vaporization coming from the oceans. Deserts tend to have clear skies.
#10. FEEDING STORMS OVER LAND ESPECIALLY AROUND WATER AREAS. When I watch the green blobs of rain storms coming into the Madison Wisconsin area, I often see sprinkles of green spots around the Mississippi River even on a clear day. Lakes and rivers are important sources of water vaporization over the land. So while the continental rate of warming left over after vaporization may only be 27%, it is closer to 44% in areas of pure land without lots of lakes, ponds, marshes, streams and rivers that whole continents tend to have. That is why weather books list vaporization at about 56% while I use the global continental land figure of 73% for my calculations.

For more detailed information about these ten points, try the following article on my academic website:
https://www.academia.edu/7710046/EVAPORATION

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message 608-230-6640
for more info http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy 1999 available as $10 ebook)

10 Military Domestic Effects

#1. PRODUCTIVITY. High military spending deprives the manufacturing sector of scientists, engineers, and capital, reducing economic growth and job growth proportionately. In wartime this negative effect is often offset by not taxing for it and running a federal deficit instead.
#2. CRIME. High military spending drives up the crime and murder rates proportionately. Indirectly, the depressed economy leads to higher crime, directly, crime is higher around military bases, and wounded vets with PTSD have higher suicide, divorce, mental illness, and crime rates.
#3. INEQUALITY. High military spending leads to income inequality. Military industry jobs pay one third more than similar jobs in normal private industry. Military pay and benefits increased 72% in the decade that began with 9-11 while private industry pay dropped 14%.
#4. DECLINE. High military spending causes the decline of empires. Arnold Toynbee’s analysis shows that 23 of 25 empires studied declined because of high levels of military spending.
#5. POLITICS. Those representing areas of high military spending dominate the political leadership of America. As measured by per capita military spending, while equal populations live in states above or below the line, the high military spending states have about 80% of the supreme court, leadership in congress, presidential cabinet, and presidents since World War II, a four to one advantage coming from a high military spending state.
#6. REGIONAL. Of the four major regions of the United States, the manufacturing heartland of the Great Lakes region Midwest is by far the lowest in military spending, about 60 percent below the average. Congress favors the financial military coastal regions of America over the manufacturing heartland. Bailing out the banks was much easier than bailing out the auto companies.
#7. SOCIAL MOBILITY. Once considered a classless society, America has become much less socially mobile than Europe, Japan and other developed nations, especially since 1980 when the empire mentality became firmly entrenched in the American economy and culture.
#8. HEALTH. While America has the worst mental health, obesity, and teen birth rates in the developed world, the correlation on these is much worse with long term military spending (.79) than income inequality (.67) among the 22 nations studied in the book Spirit Level. We also pay twice as much for our health care as other developed countries who have about one third our military budget percentage of the economy.
#9 PRISONERS. With 5% of the world’s population we have 25% of the world’s prisoners. We doubled the people in prisons in the nineties while crime rates were cut in half by the post Cold War lowered military spending rates. The fear based culture of militarism has entrenched extreme attitudes in America, as imprisonment becomes the new racism with ten times the lock up rates of whites.
#10 PRESS FREEDOM. As the national security state controls the press, we have much lower press freedom than Canada, Japan, and Northern Europe according to Reporters Without Borders.
For more detailed information about these ten points, try the following four articles on my academic website:

MILITARY ECONOMY SUMMARY (one page):
https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_High_Accuracy_13

EMPIRE ECONOMICS, award winning presentation, five pages:
https://www.academia.edu/4044446/EMPIRE_ECONOMICS_Peer_Review_AWARD_12ppt.4p.

MILITARY ECONOMY BOOKLET (24 pages):
https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p.

CRIME (3 pages):
https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message 608-230-6640
for more info http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy 1999 available as $10 ebook)

10 Ways Heat Affects People

10 Ways Heat Affects People

#1. High temperatures make us lethargic, sluggish, and nonproductive. One study shows we are 37% less productive at 95 degrees Fahrenheit.
#2. High temperature makes us sweat. One estimate is that 85% of solar radiation at the surface of the earth evaporates water. Water evaporation from sweat lowers the heat effect of the sun on us.
#3. High temperature hurts the American economy. When the 95 year period from 1895 to 1988 is broken down into five year periods, fifteen of the 18 period changes show that the economy gets better with cooling and worse with heating.
#4. High temperature hurts the tropical nations. The global North countries do much better than the global South countries because temperate zone economies outperform tropical economies. In Europe and America, the colder states or countries outperform the warmer ones.
#5. High temperature months underperform in the stock market. One study looked at all stock markets in the world and found that the difference was statistically significant that if you buy on Halloween and sell on May Day you will do much better than the reverse. For America the last twenty years the six cold months had a 6 percent higher return than the six warm months. November to April beats May to October.
#6. Because there is more water to evaporate over oceans than lands, the land heats up three times as fast as ocean. With most of the earth’s land in the Northern Hemisphere, the seasons vary three times as much in the North as in the Southern Hemisphere.
#7. The last three thousand years the Mediterranean area has experienced three major warming periods and two major cooling periods. The first major warming moved the ideal temperature zone and the most prosperous civilizations from South to North. 1200 BC Egypt was the dominant civilization but as it got to hot first Greece and then further North Rome became the dominant civilizations.
#8 When the earth suddenly cooled from the 200 AD peak to the next bottom at 450 AD, Rome stopped expanding about 115 AD and started collapsing in the four hundreds AD. Barbarians comfortable in Northern Asia became too cold and sought warmer climates like the Meditarranean.
#9 The next warming around 1000 AD led to the Vikings of Northern Europe becoming active and farming Greenland and a part of Canada called Vinland by the Vikings. The cooling after that led to the Southern European voyages of discovery by Spain and Portugal as the ideal temperature zone moved South.
#10 The warming of the 1700s led to three decades of great crops in Britain and enough leisure time to think up the industrial revolution. This warming continues today with some boost from the greenhouse effect, but a fifty four year cycle created by the evaporation effect has the ocean holding back the land from further warming since 1998 until about 2025.
For more detailed information about these ten points, try the following four articles on my academic website:

CLIMATE Effects ECONOMY:
https://www.academia.edu/4862993/CLIMATE_Effects_ECONOMY_5_p._1999

EVAPORATION makes the world change
https://www.academia.edu/7710046/EVAPORATION_makes_the_world_change_3_pages_1997

CIVILIZATION Changes with Climate:
https://www.academia.edu/4485586/CIVILIZATION_Changes_with_Climate_4p._RE_1999

TEMPERATURE CYCLE PROOF:
https://www.academia.edu/4090273/TEMPERATURE_CYCLE_PROOF_1910-1973-2025

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message 608-230-6640
for more info http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy 1999 available as $10 ebook)

Democracy in Ukraine and USA

The problem with the United Nations is that it is an association of governments not peoples. So when push comes to shove it often sides with government not peoples. Thomas Jefferson in his Declaration of Independence recognizes in his second paragraph the right of peoples to change or overthrow governments that do not serve the people well. While we can see the United Kingdom letting Scotland become its own country peaceably, our government does not extend the same right to the Russians living in Eastern Ukraine. Putin is painted as a villain for standing up for the rights of these peoples. Just as the arbitrary borders set up by Western powers in 1921 in the Middle East have lead to trouble, and the arbitrary borders of African states set up in the post colonial Africa have lead to trouble, we still do not respect the rights of peoples over those of arbitrarily bordered nation-states.

On C-SPAN book TV I once watched someone describe his whole book about how the 40% or more minority in the South did not want to secede and cause a Civil War in the United States. But the aggressive faction won out, succeeding in dividing the country. In the case of the War between the States in America, the rights of slaves were ignored by this Southern faction. Since that group of slaves had no representation in the South, it was up to the North to give them their rights. Britain ended slavery in 1838 peaceably. Why did we have to have a war to do so?

When Texas seceded from Mexico in 1845, and then later joined the United States, the situation was very much like that in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. The difference now is that Putin seems to be content with just the Russian part of Ukraine that has expressed its will by referendum in Crimea and by open rebellion in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. Then Polk claimed a false incident with Mexican troops justifying the taking over of all of Northern Mexico including Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California. Ironically, by 2030 all those states will have Mexican American majorities. Abraham Lincoln furiously demanded of President Polk information on where this alleged incident took place, and never got satisfaction for the famous Spot Resolution out of congress. Putin was willing to let them seek autonomy within Ukraine, but the Ukrainians chose to go to war against them instead and Russia is finally overcoming its reluctance and coming to their aid against the corrupt government installed under false pretenses in Kiev.

We must remember that when the Cold War ended we promised the Russians we would not push NATO Eastward into Eastern Europe and the Western Soviet Republics. When we broke that promise, the Russians must have felt like the Native Americans felt in the nineteenth century as treaty after treaty was broken at the settlers’ convenience. We must further remember that Crimea and the Donetsk region were for centuries a part of Russia until the Ukrainian Nikita Khrushchev became the leader of the Soviet Union. Nikita then took them away from Russia and added them to Ukraine in the 1950s. So Putin looks to be a moderate in the face of that history.

Lastly, the $5 billion CIA campaign to “restore” democracy to Ukraine would not have won out without a false flag incident where agent provocateurs shot their own demonstrators in order to blame the pro-Russian president and get him removed from office. Only after that dirty trick was Ukraine turned away from Russia. Note that $5 billion is the entire cost of the congressional and presidential elections of 2008 in the United States. Imagine how much you could do with that amount of money for just one side in a country one fourth the size of America. So it is no wonder that such a group would resort to violence again to reassert claims to the Eastern fringe of Ukraine that was administratively taken from Russia during the Cold War. It seemed like a minor change to Khrushchev, like giving the Upper Peninsula to Michigan and not Wisconsin, like adjusting a county boundary within a state, like separating Kuwait from Iraq in 1921. No big deal, it’s just an administrative change within a common entity. What could possibly go wrong?

Bureaucrats everywhere are eager to simplify their lives by removing the rights of the people because as we all know, democracy is messy, and who wants messy. It has even happened to me recently when a community radio station went against their own mission statement to provide community access to the airwaves and stopped granting two minute commentary privileges to the public, including me after about fifty weeks in a row. No exceptions, but they will use repeats of an out of state two minute broadcaster rather than repeats of my fifty broadcasts. Democracy, you see, is just too bothersome to keep going. Dictatorship and authoritarianism are so much easier to administer. So when the US transgresses, as it has in Ukraine, it is so much easier to blame the other guy, Putin, for trying to protect his people living in Ukraine. Don’t we always say, no justice no peace? Doesn’t the US protect its citizens living abroad? Why the double standard?

For War Cycle History:
https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_Cycle

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message 608-230-6640
for more info http://www.realeconomy.com
(Peace Economics 1986 available for $10 ebook)

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