Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the month “March, 2018”

Gun Control Students March

Movements Return on 54 Year Cycle

Millions rallied around the nation (some globally) against gun violence against schools and citizens yesterday.  Estimates of 800,000 mostly students in Washington DC March 24, 2018 compare favorably with the 1,000,000 mostly women on January 21, 2017.  These enormous rallies come 54 and 55 years after the civil rights march of August 23, 1963, with a then record 300,000 crowd.  Back then we had the great movements for civil rights, against the Vietnam War, followed by women’s and environmental rights several years after the first two.  Now we have Black Lives Matter, the Women’s counter-inaugural protest, and the Parkland Students against school mass murders.  Then a landslide election in 1964 brought in the Great Society reforms and programs, now a blue wave election in 2018, 54 years later, threatens to turn around congress 180 degrees in philosophy.  Democrats needing 23 seats to regain the majority, may gain over a hundred seats if the recent Pennsylvania special election is indicative.  It is remarkable that this repetition occurs at the same long cycle time with similar economic prosperity.

Advanced Empire Decay

Seventy Years of hollowing out the manufacturing sector to apply similar resources of capital, research, and people to military spending have weakened the US industrial economy largely replaced by the financial services economy.  Profits from the financial services industry have increased to nine times their share of the US economy in the forty years since the seventies.  Just as the New Deal momentum was in its last hurrah back then, now the Reagan conservative revolution is looking at its imminent demise.  Then the American empire was at its peak under Kennedy while now the American empire will have trouble recovering from Trump.  Ever since 1945 the memory of pre-empire Roosevelt America remained strong for many Americans until after the 1980 Reagan election.  Now many Americans do not remember what America used to be.  Prior to 1980 all Americans shared prosperity equally, with all classes doubling their income in those 35 post war years.  Now Americans in the bottom 99% have remained without meaningful wage increases while the top 1% has seen their income more than quadruple.  Thanks to the FOX News propaganda channel since 1996 and Rush Limbaugh since 1988, Americans have been uniquely misinformed about politics.  Thus despite his documented record of 2000 lies in his first year in office, Trump continues the lying, repeated by FOX news and his 24 million Twitter followers and 16 million Facebook followers, to hold on to his 35% base while turning off everyone else.  Polls show that 12% believe they are in the top 1% in income, while another 23% believe they will be in the top 1% someday.  These deluded and aspiring groups supplement the actual 1% to make up the essence of the 35% Trump Republican base.  The key Reagan deception was to sell America on his 25% tax cut plan that in fact gave a 60% tax cut to the top 1% while giving a mere 15% tax cut for the middle class.  This same four to one ratio of benefits continues in the Trump tax “reform” plan.  But thanks to the 2011 “occupy” movement, Americans now know they are being had.  They also know that 24,000 would lose their health care under the Trump Republican proposals that failed last year.  Nevertheless, 13,000 will lose their health care coverage due to the partial repeal slipped into the tax bill, with an estimated 10% increase in premiums due to that change.

Murder Rates Match Military Spending Rates

Steve Mills, who teaches medicine at the University of Minnesota, has shown that households that have a gun in the house are five times as likely to be shot to death as those in households without firearms.  My own findings show that most of the seven largest economy nations correlate strongly between military spending and murder rates, with a near perfect correlation as high as 0.996 during the last twenty years of the Cold War.  There is probably a lot of overlap between gun holding households and veterans.  One friend of mine once read a book about mass murderers and told me that they all had military backgrounds, and there are few exceptions to that pattern today.  Murder and crime rates are higher around military bases, and I learned at the 1999 hundredth anniversary Hague Peace Conference that Okinawa Japan women are often raped by US soldiers so much that the national government had to overrule the local government to keep the US base there.  Japan is a very low military low crime country.  In the fifties, the US learned how to train soldiers to kill, because over 70% of troops never fire their guns in combat in wars including World War Two, because humans are so naturally horrified about killing another human being.  78% of combat deaths in that war were due to artillery, a safely out of sight, out of mind, way to kill others.

Three Reasons Why Military and Murder are Related

There are three reasons why murder rates and military spending rates are so closely aligned.  First is the military drain on the economy, which leads to more desperate and crime prone people.  Second is the de-personalization of others that comes with dividing the world into friends and enemies.  Among the usual 2% of us with deviant behavior, this makes it easier to commit a crime against others.  If we can easily de-personalize our victims, we can then more easily commit crimes against them.  Meetings between criminals and their victims in prison therapy are often very troubling to the criminal when they see for the first time the consequences of their actions first hand in the eyes of the victims.  Third is the direct impact of training millions of people how to kill in wars.  When you have such training it is easier to escalate a fist fight in a bar into a homicide.  Just as in Shakespeare’s play MacBeth, murder is easier and easier after the first very difficult murder decision.

Guns or the Military

Guns are the easier to see as the “cause” of the mass murder problem.  Other nations have far fewer gun murders, and one comparison of murders between Canada and the US shows similar amounts of other categories of murders per capita, similar knifings, poisonings, and strangling’s, and others, while showing a big drop in gun murders.  Britain has reduced guns to the point that it has 60% less murders than would be suggested by its military rate.  But that is true also for France, Virginia, and New England, a four-some that correlate 93%, but at 60% lower than for US, Germany, Sweden, Italy, and Japan.  But this may be related to comparing 150 year old societies with 400 year old societies.  Is it the guns or the level of maturation of the society that reduces crime rates?  Crime rates in the US went down after the 1991 end of the Cold War to half their rates, just as military spending went down also in the nineties.  Some would ascribe this to abortion being legal since 1973, 18 years before 1991, but that would not explain the similar drop in crime in Western Europe.  German homicides have dropped 40% since 2000 while the US homicide rate has dropped only 20% thanks to the wars and military escalation.

For the additional “Crime and the Military” papers and graph on my website:

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 26), “Gun Control Students March”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2018155580.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact:, Info:

Pride Leads to Empire Fall

Historical Pattern

Why does a nation time after time follow the same patterns rising to empire-like power and then expanding the military to control others?  Emerging nations arise from the void of older established nations neglecting them, as they are on the outskirts of the main power play action.  Britain and Japan off the continent.  Later Germany ignored in the tussle between France and Britain in centuries past, rises to great power status in the World Wars.  Low military spending was the key to the Prussian school system excellence before those wars.  Now America, protected by two oceans, emerges and militarizes after World War II.  The pride makes them think they are invincible, not realizing that the military economic diversion will ultimately lead to the fall of the empire.  Poor science, and the military Keynesianism mistake of John Maynard Keynes, leads powerful nations to believe they can afford to spend a lot on the military.  Short term thinking also leads to poor high military budget decisions.  But ignorance of the Reuschlein findings, model, and defense strategy are prideful errors that really hurt.  Most people are number-phobic and don’t see the negative consequences of military spending.  They recognize the economic boom in military buildup areas, but fail to see the compensating decline in manufacturing in the rest of the country, especially the industrial Midwest Great Lakes states in America.  Then the deficit and war bonding lift the economy in major wars, unless they don’t match the military spending as in the economic decline in 1944 through 1947 for America in World War II and the two years after the war.

Famous Presidencies

America was very fortunate to have Washington as their first president.  He set the pattern of limiting himself to two terms to avoid the tendency of leaders to cling to power.  Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.  But it’s hard not to notice all of America’s top presidents have a war associated with them.  Wanting to set the historical record is very tempting to presidents and national leaders.  Winning a war is a big part of being a big part of history.  So the lure of fame urges many a leader into war.  Switzerland, run by a committee, is war averse, while most single leader nations are war prone.  Another characteristic of major war presidents is that they were not around to see the previous major war first hand.  Average age for starting a war among American presidents is 57, hence the 54 year cycle of major wars leaves them all too young to participate in the last major war.  Having served in a war can temper a leaders judgement, avoiding the reckless rush into war.

Hottest Downloads Exceeded

Since the publication of my “Hottest Downloads” press release April 14, 2017 three more papers greatly exceeded anything on that list in the next half year.  These three new blockbusters were first “Dear Future US President” posted on May 8, 2017 soared to 87 downloads on 103 views, an astonishing 84% download to views rate.  The second came out as I renewed my association with “Dungeons and Dragons” founder Gary Gygax’s followers.  Telling my story of how the ten years of wargaming with Gygax lead to his invention was so fascinating that 130 downloaded and 229 viewed “History of Gary Gygax and War Economy” with a download to views rate of 57% this was posted on June 18, 2017.  Then in August 2017 “Military Complete Geography” was posted with its summary of the military political economy of the 50 United States.  This was viewed by 158 and downloaded by 163 with most downloading two copies each. This is a download rate of 103%.  My press release of almost the same name August 8th looked mainly at the top 32 states, with some small inaccuracies and incompleteness.

Nobel Prize Interest Peaks in Third Year   

No one but the Norwegian Nobel Committee has tried to look at all my 183 press releases on  That signature convinced me they were very serious about my nomination from the starting two months of February and March 2016.  Then nothing happened for a while as the Columbian President won the Peace Prize in 2016.  But in 2017 some very strange things started happening.  Twelve days before and 10 days before someone looked at 24 of the most recent press releases.  I thought this meant the chair and vice chair of the five member committee were studying me.  Then the same thing the night before the announcement, perhaps a search for a third vote.  Then the award went to an anti-nuclear group ICAN with no coverage except the live broadcast on the BBC.  The world said “ho hum”.  Since then twice in November, three times in January, four times in February and on March 8th the signature pattern repeated, looking at the last 26 or 24 in a row.  Of these ten different visits since the last announcement, three may have come from Germany or France, one from Australia, and one from Switzerland, since the website seems to precede the access to the press releases.  Thorbjorn Jagland, Secretary General of the Council of Europe since 2009, works in Strasbourg, France and may live across the river in Germany.  He has the economics background to follow me most closely.  Australia could be a false lead, and Switzerland could be Thorbjorn Jagland on assignment in say Geneva, since he is the Secretary General of the Council of Europe.  It seems like I may be a favorite this year, look out October 5th.

For the original number one downloaded paper on website:

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 11), “Pride Leads to Empire Fall”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2018155054.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact:, Info:

Constitutional Costs of War


In the US constitution the power to declare war is reserved to Congress.  Congress is considered superior to the executive in that it is defined in Article One while the Executive is defined in Article Two.  But there has been no declaration of war since World War Two.  Since World War Two the congress has let the executive choose our wars.  This has been referred to as the Imperial Presidency.  Since World War Two America has acted more as an empire than a republic.

This modern transformation of America resembles what happened to the Roman Republic as the institution of Emperor dominated the Senate as the Roman Republic became the Roman Empire.  Today we call that process America becoming the world’s policeman.

The founding persons were well aware of the dangers of too much militarism.  The father of the constitution, James Madison, deliberately under funded the War of 1812, because he knew that excessive militarism inevitably leads to a loss of civil liberties.  George Washington warned us of the dangers of excessive foreign entanglements.

The cost of war and empire is enormous, starting with the diversion of key resources away from the pursuit of happiness and economic productivity to the pursuit of death and destruction.  Jefferson’s life liberty and the pursuit of happiness are all jeopardized by the pursuit of endless war, such as the 186 incursions into Latin America during the twentieth century and the extension of the Monroe Doctrine worldwide with the Iraq War in 2003.

Reporters Without Borders gives America a low rating, especially during the Iraq War, because one of the liberties that suffers during war is the free press.  Censorship runs higher during wartime.  Jefferson has said he would rather have a free press than the right to vote.  His reasoning was that with a free press the right to vote is more likely to come, while the right to vote can be meaningless in a controlled press society.

Habeas Corpus was a right taken away during the American Civil War by Lincoln and in modern times with the prisoners in Guantanamo, Cuba, during the wars against terrorists.

US Constitution System of Checks and Balances

  • Article I, Section 8: “Congress shall have the power to declare war.”
  • Alexander Hamilton in Federalist Papers: President is to be Commander in Chief.
  • Hamilton: Congress declares wars, raises and regulates fleets and armies.
  • Article II: President leads foreign policy.

Founding Figures (Rule of Law vs Rule of One)  

George Washington warns us of the dangers of foreign entanglements and standing armies.  James Madison engaged in War of 1812 frugally to avoid the loss of civil liberties.  Thomas Jefferson would prefer a free press over elections.  (With a free press elections are possible, without a free press elections are meaningless.)

Imperial Presidency 

Rome started out as a Republic with a powerful Senate, but ended as an Empire ruled by an Emperor.  America started out as a Republic but with WWII changed to the Imperial Presidency.  Presidential powers in Foreign Policy today often overextend into war starting, with the Congress an after-thought.  Empire, Military Spending, Feudalism, Power, Control, Violence, Corruption, all have lots in common.

Civil Liberties and War      

Historical Wartime Abuse examples:  1798 Sedition Act, 1846 Spot Act, Habeus Corpus lost in Civil War, Japanese internment in WWII, Cold War controlled press, 1964 Gulf of Tonkin.

Perpetual War (Empire):  1947 National Security Act creates CIA with covert operations and media control Operation Mockingbird; Monroe Doctrine with 186 incursions in Latin America in the 20th Century;  Iraq War:  worldwide Monroe Doctrine; Terror War, widespread telephone and email invasion of privacy as Homeland Security budget quadruples in from 2002 to 2006 and grows to match that of the CIA with present estimate of $80 billion each.

Military Controlled Government

Regional Military Economics R=.97No major component of the US federal budget is extremely unequally and politically distributed among the 50 states than military spending.  This gives overwhelming political clout to those in charge of the military budget, especially presidents, congressional leaders, and committee chairpersons.  Those regions and states that get more or less than their pro rata (tax load) share of the military budget gain or lose economically & politically accordingly.  Military spending depletes the productive economy and redistributes to the regional “warfare” economy:  creates “middle class” type welfare-like program.

“How Democracies Die” Steven Levitsky, Daniel Ziblatt, 2018.

Trump has four authoritarian aspects:  Attacking the Press (and the courts), threatening Election Opponent “Lock Her Up”, Anti-immigrants,  Condoning violence at rallies.  Fortune 500 founders are 40% offspring of immigrants, like Steve Jobs whose parents were from Syria.  Ben Franklin tells lady on street that the constitutional convention gave us a “republic, if you can keep it”.

14 Characteristics of Fascism Dr. Lawrence Britt (5-28-03

  1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism, 2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights, 3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause, 4. Supremacy of the Military, 5. Rampant Sexism, 6. Controlled Mass Media (40 million tweet and facebook followers plus FOX news for Trump), 7. Obsession with National Security, 8. Religion and Government are Intertwined, 9. Corporate Power is Protected, 10. Labor Power is Suppressed, 11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts (climate hoax), 12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment, 13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption, 14. Fraudulent Elections.

World Press Freedom, Reporters Without Borders: 

(2011-12 Index: G8 countries); 10) Canada, 16) Germany, 22) Japan, 28) United Kingdom, 38) France, 43) United States, 57) United States (extra-territorial), 61) Italy, 142) Russia.

(2017 Index: G8 countries); 16) Germany, 22) Canada, 39) France, 40) United Kingdom, 43) United States, 52) Italy, 72) Japan, 148) Russia.  Both of these lists are roughly in order of the national military percentage of the economy, except that Italy is low due to Berlusconi being both owner of the media and the government, and Japan in 2017 in the midst of a constitutional crisis over changing the constitution to grow the military.

Banking and the Military    

American corporate profits went from 7% to 12% of GDP in the last forty years.  Financial profit share went from 6% to 30%.  Financial profits GDP has gone from 0.4% to 3.6% of GDP, a nine-fold increase overall.  The industrial triangle book of Gordon Adams showed that major banks and major defense contractors had corporate interlocks of 15% between just those two industries, the same percent for all interlocks in other companies.

Empire “Opportunity Cost”           

Military Spending is both wasted manufacturing & lost capital investment. Military Spending takes away from the productive stream of the economy key research and capital resources.  Such resources normally keep manufacturing competitive producing new products constantly being tested by the consumer and business marketplaces.  Military Spending converts such resources to a national service that does not enhance the economy.  90% of military spending is for this national service.  A small part of the 10% spent on research returns as civilian spinoffs.  Military Spending is like a junk food diet, filling but not nourishing, Fat & Carbs without Protein to build muscles.

Military Spending National Economics     

The following four correlations studies best illustrate the nonproductive nature of military spending:  R=-.997 Manufacturing Productivity (G7+Sweden, Denmark)(1960-1978, Sivard Reuschlein);  R=-.993 Capital Investment (NATO 4+Sweden)(1960-1979, Sivard Reuschlein); R=.999 Productivity (3+2 factor) US Model (1920-1996, Reuschlein); R=-.97 Economic Growth vs Net Military Burden (1941-1948 World War II, Reuschlein)

Crime, Murder and the Military    

Using combined data from 1973-75, 1984, 1991 always indexed against the US, I was able to put all these countries on one graph.  Focusing on the G7, leaving outliers Britain and France out, the correlation was R= .996.  Later I noted that Britain and France correlated well (R= .93) with New England and Virginia, the four hundred year old mature societies.  Japan, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the United States are all about 150 year-old societies.  The older countries and colonies were at 40% crime levels relative to their military spending compared to the younger societies.

Social Correlations with Military Spending         

In rank order from high to low, here are some of the leading developed world international social factor correlations with military spending, largely from the 2010 book “Spirit Level”:  Social Class Mobility R= -.923; Factory Productivity R= -.868, Prisoners R= .852, Teen Births R= .818, Homicides R= .803, Work Hours R= .794, Mental Illness R= .789, Income Inequality R= .765, Press Freedom R= -.763, Obesity R= .753, Infant Mortality R= .679, Unsustainability R= .548, Recycling R= -.482.

Spirit Level Comparison     

Health & Social Problems index correlates -0.878 with military and -0.875 with inequality.

The above index from the Spirit Level book does a better job of proving the empire theory over the income inequality theoryThese next 6 robust correlations are from the components of the “Spirit Level” health and social problems index above:  showing the military economy correlation first and the inequality correlation second, the strongest six correlations are:  for reduced social mobility .923 and .934, for increased prisoners .852 and .658, for increased teen births .852 and .735, for increased homicides .800 and .571, for increased mental illness .789 and .737, and for increased obesity .753 and .524.  Overall the military is a much stronger average of .823 over .693.  The military and inequality factors are themselves strongly correlated at .765.  Based on this I would strongly suggest empire levels of military spending are a better explanation than just growing income inequality for all these disastrous social statistics.

Current History, Great Recession   

Bush military buildup is similar to the Reagan military buildup.  One difference is the much smaller tax cut under Bush (Less Deficit Lift).  Repeal of Glass-Stiegel made crash worse under Bush (Derivatives grew 10 times since repeal).  Real Estate problems developed under both military buildups.  The role of the military buildup is almost completely ignored.  I publicly predicted a recession in January 2007, predicting disaster for the $70 billion Iraq Surge.  It takes about six months to deploy troops in Iraq, and sure enough, the unemployment rate started going up in July 2007 and worsened continuously for two years.  The Financial collapse made conditions worse, but the military buildup started the downhill slide which exposed the weaknesses of the financial structure.  The 2008 military budget is twice the increase of years before and after.  The four economic quarters of the fiscal year 2008 are the four steepest drops in economic growth rate in recent memory.


Empires decline because they divert economic achievement resources to power projection.  Military spending and manufacturing capital draw from a common resource pool so as one increases the other decreases.  Low military high growth societies incentivize new product creation and achievement.  High military spending low growth societies incentivize market share nitpicking & control.  High Military Spending States give us 80% of US key political leaders, especially presidents, including all eleven Cold War elections.


There will be no recovery from the collapsing nature of empire until and unless the military is reduced.  The US industrial Midwest swing states that decide presidential elections will all benefit greatly from reduced military.  Even the military itself will benefit from faster future growth after the initial reduction.  All Great Lakes states are half the national average in military spending per capita and will benefit the most from the initial military reduction.  The parasitic mostly coastal Financial and Military industries can’t be allowed to kill the inland industrial “goose that laid the golden egg.”

For original eight per page power point slides with charts and graphs at Telos 2018 Conference:


Constitutional Theory as Cultural Problem: Global Perspectives  TELOS February 17, 2018, 3pm China House, “Constitutional Implications of War”  Professor Robert Reuschlein, EE, CPA, MBA, Ed.D., Real Economy Institute,,

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 4), “Constitutional Cost of War”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2018154802.aspx


Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact:, Info:

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