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Archive for the month “July, 2016”

Land Ocean 54 Year Cycle

Evaporation

Evaporation is the key to the land ocean cycle.  When solar radiation reaches the Earth’s surface it evaporates water.  Stephen Schneider wrote in one of his books that 85% of incident solar radiation evaporated water, 90% over ocean.  Simple algebra suggests about 90% of the 71% water covered surface and 73% of the 29% land covered surface would give the overall 85% figure.  That leaves 10% for direct warming on the ocean and 27% for direct warming on the land.  Modern estimates suggest 67% evaporation, which if that figure was measured over land, would tend to support the above calculation.  Whatever the numbers, it’s clear that land warms faster than ocean, three times faster by these numbers, but whatever the numbers clearly land has less water to evaporate than the ocean does.  Then the fact that the land heavy Northern Hemisphere has three times the seasonal variation in temperatures as the Southern Hemisphere would support these estimates.  The last 150 years the land has warmed about twice as much as the ocean.

Temperature Mapping

When you spend endless hours poring over annual temperature variations over various large sections of the Earth you can eventually discover where the 54 year cycle comes from.  First you notice that a variety of multi-year averaged temperature sets have a common year for peak and valley dates.  For the United States, these dates come every 27 years between peak and valley.  Then you notice the hotter Hemisphere alternates between North and South on a 108 year cycle.  Then you notice the Northern Latitudes take a big leap in temperature when the next North cycle begins as the South cycle ends.  Approaching the peak, major droughts occur, at the peak major floods start, signaling the reclaiming of the out of control land by the ocean.  For the United States, when the North land 48 year cycle was peaking the two major droughts were interior.  When the South ocean 60 year cycle was peaking, there was only one major drought interior with three large coastal states caught in seven year droughts, showing how the South ocean Hemisphere in ascendency changes the pattern of the second 54 year cycle.  The global temperature peak in the North cycle came in 1944 while the global peak in the South cycle came in 1998, with those two peaks exactly 54 years apart.

Event Mapping

My first event mapping was after the 1988 drought 52 and 54 years after the 1936 and 1934 drought, when Jim Hansen reported the United States temperature and precipitation history back to 1895.  Those are the three major United States droughts of the twentieth century.  Now I have 56 major events on my latest chart, with Hurricane Sandy flooding the battery in New York in 2012, for the first time since 1960 52 years before, the last major addition.  Of the 56 peak to peak events, 20 are exact to the year.  Overall, the 56 events are 1.5 years off a perfect 54 year cycle, about 95% accurate if you divide the error range of three years by 54.

Economic Growth

The general rule in transferring the natural cycle into the economic growth cycle is that the economy is stronger when it is cooling and weaker when it is warming.  There are at least four main levels of proof of this relationship.  First there is a study in the dry cleaning industry, similar to Maxwell Taylor’s railroad study in the 1890’s, that shows productivity decreases as temperature exceeds the normal office temperature of 72 degrees Fahrenheit.   That NASA (dry cleaners not space) study shows that productivity decreases 37% at 95 degrees F. and 18% at 85 degrees F. Second, using the Hansen drought study temperature data, clustered into five year periods, in 15 of 18 periods of the United States economy, when it cooled the economy increased faster and when it warmed the economy worsened.  The one clearest case of greatest change was the late twenties to the early thirties, when warming increased half a century’s worth in one five year period to the next, and the economy went into the Great Depression.  Third, it’s obvious that temperate zone economies have generally done better than tropical economies.  In America and Europe, the Northern states and countries outperform the Southern states and countries, generally.  America, with a larger summer winter temperature swing than Europe, has generally done better.  Fourth, Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) have shown that every stock market in the world does better November to April than May to October.  Those six coldest months in the United States outperform the six warmest months by about 6% in a twenty year study by Finance Professor Pat Brown of UW Madison circa 2011.  So the general rule in 54 year economic cycles is the 27 years of relative cooling do better than the 27 years of relative heating up. The United States economic growth rate peaked in 1898, bottomed in 1928, and peaked in 1952 and bottomed in 1982 according to most multi year moving averages.  2006 is the next peak in that pattern, as the economy did peak in 2007 just before the Great Recession of 2008-2009.  The 24 year up cycle and 30 year down cycle resembles the 48 year North cycle and 60 year South cycle of the natural world.  In general, up cycle is clearer and stronger than down cycle.

War Cycle

The war cycle is a combination of the temperature cycle and the economic cycle.  Civil Rights and other political events also tend to be in the cycle, but the war cycle is the clearest to measure and understand.  In general, a secondary war leads the major war, by about 18 years in the United States and 15 years in Europe. The start date and deaths are the best measures to use. The secondary war tends to be a testing war in the middle of the economic growth period.  This tends to be a mismatch, with a stronger country taking on a weaker country.  For America, this usually happens about the same year of the long term growth peaking. The major war then comes at the end of the economic growth cycle when wealth is maximized, and the growth has helped create a new economic order among nations.  Then the strongest tendency is for the number one national economy to take on the number two national economy.  Hence the war is major and very bloody.  Coincidentally, this happens after a two or three year cooling leading to the coldest year of a period of time.  That coldest year is the start of war year in most of the major cases in the last 150 years or so.  Perhaps this cooling increases hubris into a danger zone.  This timing also comes about 3 or 4 years after the peak growth cycle has statistically ended by long term standards.  So a sense of waning power enhances the tendency of politicians to distract the public away from economics and substitute war fever instead.  So this time period is unique in a number of ways that combine to build the pressure to go to war.  Into such a tinderbox, all you need to do is throw in a lighted match.

Summary

The long cycle starts in nature and affects the economy ultimately leading into war.  Hence the natural cycle and its events, the economic cycle and its events, and the war political cycle and its events are all interrelated. Because we really have two different Earths, one on the land, and one on the ocean, we have long overlooked the important interaction between these two giants of the Earth system.  We readily recognize other astronomical effects, such as the rotation that produces the day and night cycle.  Then there is the tilt of the Earth spinning on its axis that produces the annual seasons.  Then there are the very long spectrum of effects that produce the coming and going of ice ages.  In between the short term cycles and the geological time frame cycles lies a little noted and studied 54 year cycle.  Kondratiev, a Leninist Marxist economist studied this cycle in pig iron production in 1926.  Unfortunately that burden of the communist label, despite his execution by Stalin in 1938, has allowed Western economists to largely ignore his work. Then there is Klyashtorin who broke down 1400 years of ice core data from Greenland into its La Place transform frequencies, finding a very strong result for the 55 year cycle.  In the Americas, both the Quitlcastl and Aztec civilizations had long noticed a 52 year cycle of natural events, even building pueblos with four levels of 13 units each, and rotating around the maypole 13 times with 4 strands coming out.  So the long cycle has been noticed studied and worshipped by many peoples over the centuries, both the Quitlcastl and Aztec civilizations had long noticed a 52 year cycle of natural events, even building pueblos with four levels of 13 units each, and rotating around the maypole 13 times with 4 strands coming out.  So the long cycle has been noticed studied and worshipped by many peoples over the centuries.

This link takes you to the 56 modern events of the cycle: https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56Cycle

This link gives you a broader understanding of the natural cycle with extra documents:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_9p._2014

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, info: www.realeconomy.com

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, contact:  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

America: Violent Society

America is plagued with a lot of problems these days.  Why is that?  We have followed the typical path of many empires before us.  What is different is we have the data now to prove the point.  This is why my most popular presentation is called “Empire Economics.”

The Founding Fathers knew how corrupting wars can be and avoided excessive military entanglements.  Keeping a minimal military between wars maximized the growth potential of the young nation.  The people were left to decide what was best for them, and they were industrious and successful.  Success is the best cure for crime and violence.  Excessive militarism promotes all the conditions for higher crime and violence. Many on the political left focus on guns to explain our condition in America, but looking internationally, empire and high military spending do a much better job of explaining international differences.  Many European countries have very few gun murders, yet have overall murder rates proportional to their military spending just like in the United States of America.  One presidential candidate claims to be the law and order candidate, yet both crime and illegal immigration are the lowest in about forty years under the Obama administration.  Still we are very high in crime compared to other industrialized nations.

The following earlier postings are brought together in “Violent Society America” with a link to the full text of all seven.  Here are brief summaries:

Cycles of War and Violence

Why are we making so many parallels to the sixties with today’s times and events?  Well because the 54 year cycle is a very real land ocean cycle on this planet that affects natural events, economics and wars among other things.  So it is useful to subtract 54 years from 2016 and get 1962, roughly the middle of the civil rights struggle of that time.  We are in the early stages of another civil rights era struggle.  The secondary war peaks in 2006 (Iraq War was 3 years early) and the major war peaks around 2024 average or 2025 most frequent.  The Vietnam War, due about 1970, came five years early in 1965.  Korea came two years early in 1950 instead of the average historical date of 1952.

Baltimore Riot the New Watts 

The Los Angeles Watts riot of 1965 came after a summer heat wave suddenly cooled a bit and the riots started then, the day of the cooling.  The Baltimore riots of 2015 were bigger than the Ferguson riots, hence they seemed a closer comparison to Watts fifty years before.

Why Were Murder and Crime Cut in Half in the Nineties?

Whenever there is a military buildup, manufacturing suffers, thanks to the diversion of research and capital into the military instead.  Likewise, whenever the military is reduced, manufacturing grows, thanks to those same research, engineering, and capital resources being productively employed again.

Thus the near perfect crime and murder rate correlations with a nation’s military spending over a two decade period.  There is a delay period in transition, but the end of the Cold War military spending levels in the nineties lead to high economic growth and low murder and crime rates.  Since social decay accompanies the economic decay of empire, this crime rate international comparison is an excellent indicator of the many social changes in the process.  After about five years the murder rate follows the military spending lower and continues for another decade or so.  This delayed reaction is due to the time of raising a child to adulthood.  This formative experience translates into the crime rate as the economic conditions get better and better.  As the society relies less on mass violence or the threat of mass violence in terms of war, the children become more peaceful and society has less criminals.

Militarized Terror Policing

In the wake of the Ferguson murder by cop, the militarization of the modern police force became evident, showing the changes in our society over time as empire becomes a way of life.  Many policemen served in the Afghanistan or Iraq Wars as National Guard or reserve.  Many police forces took training from the Israelis and were told to shoot first and ask questions later by trainers.  The social worker policepersons of the seventies gradually were replaced with the warrior cops of today.

10 Ferguson Jury Mistakes 

The district attorney needs cops on his side to prosecute people.  This conflict lead to a grand jury situation where the presentation of evidence was all in the cops favor, including a white woman who backed up the policeman’s false narrative to the point that jurors ignored the several black witnesses who saw Michael Brown surrendering with his hands up in the air when he was shot dead with six bullets hitting, including a final head shot as the body fell forward facing the cop.  Multiple shots protect the police officer from facing adverse testimony by the victim.  One month after the verdict not to prosecute the officer, the district attorney revealed in a radio interview that it had been determined that the white woman supporting the police testimony was never present at the scene.  Still today on the far right, from Sean Hannity to Morning Joe, they insist that Michael Brown never had his hands up in surrender.

Control Freak Societies

Top down is the way to go in the military, the way we fought World War II.  Control is the way of empire and perpetual militarism in a society.  It is the opposite of the collegial process of new ideas and innovations needed for healthy economic growth.  Some control is important, but excessive control leads to rigidity and conformity.  A heavy dose of militarism stagnates the economy; it leads to higher unemployment rates and more top down control of the workplace results as employers have the upper hand over employees.  Then control freaks become a way of life in society in general.

Modern Feudalism, Two Cases

Power and control become dominant over equality freedom innovation and achievement in the high military spending society.  This comes to resemble the feudalism that swept Europe in the wake of the Roman Empire’s decline.  The same excessive militarism that leads to the self destruction of empires can carry over in the every fiefdom for itself mentality of castles, drawbridges, lords and serfs in the Middle Ages.  Large scale authority breaks up into micro scale authority.  Armed travel becomes necessary to protect the travelers from many diverse threats.  As militarism and control become ascendant, science and innovation go to sleep.  Churches and castles become the new authorities, and ways of life are perpetuated by heredity and class.  Social mobility ceases to be possible in such a restrictive environment.  Today social mobility in the USA has become much lower than it is in many European countries.

Detailed texts of the collection of seven papers:

https://www.academia.edu/27198787/Violent_Society_in_the_United_States_seven_papers_

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, info: www.realeconomy.com

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, contact:  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Nature of Military Spending

Because the literature is divided over the issue of whether military spending stimulates economic growth or not, my defining work must explain why that perception exists and in fact what is the real nature of military spending that produces this apparent conflict in the literature.  My own exhaustive studies of the long term empirical record, mostly of the last century in America but also with important international checks, clearly show the following results.

Appearance of Local Economic Growth

Locally and regionally, it is clear that economic activity is added to localities where military spending is spent.  That economic activity is similar to manufacturing and other goods producing activities in the normal economy like construction, mining, and agriculture.  Both kinds of economic activity consume large amounts of capital, engineering, and scientific research.

Looking Closer

The local economic growth from military spending is also clearing shown in the US historical state by state record to come with a similar depletion of economic growth in civilian manufacturing and lower economic growth in states and regions high in manufacturing and low in military spending.  So the local economic growth from military spending represents a transfer of resources from low military spending states to high military spending states.  This last point shows up in studies of changes in the per capita military spending by state from year to year in the US Statistical Abstract on the allocation of federal spending.  I have been studying these changes many different ways for many years now, and there is a strong pattern in the states of manufacturing going down as military spending goes up across the many state economies.  In fact, in the top 20 states, the correlation of military spending with the government sector of each state is about 0.83.  So I can say that military spending usually represents the major part of government spending changes state by state.

War Claim:  Military Spending Stimulates Growth

The economy often increases in growth in war years.  When military spending goes down, at the end of a war, the economy often goes into recession.  This would give a correlation of growth with military spending.

Looking Closer

Government borrowing increases substantially during wars, and then the debt is repaid when peace comes.  The federal deficit expands enormously during war periods compared to other periods of time. My essentially perfect long term sixty year model of the US economy is predicated on the simple assumption that deficits raise the economic growth rate of each year and military spending decreases the economic growth rate of each year.  Thus, net military spending, that is military spending minus deficit spending, is the amount of slowing force in the economy.  So the war economy phenomenon is better explained as a federal deficit economy.  Comparing manufacturing productivity growth rates with economic growth rates does suggest some additional war boom that can’t be explained away.  I call this the adrenaline rush boost of a war time situation, also consistent with the post war let down.

Research Claim:  Military Spending Stimulates Growth

In the US case, research has historically been about 10% of the military budget.  Hence this research case for military spending can at most be 10% true for military spending as a whole.  Take the internet claim as an example.  Some say the race to put a man on the moon laid the groundwork for the internet.  British and Swiss scientists claim credit for important parts of the internet, so it’s not just DARPA in the USA that can claim credit for the internet.  Analysts find a much reduced impact of military research by dividing the impact three ways, one for being too military specific, one for secrecy reducing the benefit of interaction with other scientists, and one for dual purpose civilian and military usage of inventions.  Hence 33% effective is a common estimate of the military research impact on the economy.  One pro military buildup expert claims the impact even lower, 7%.  That makes sense in the venture capitalist estimate that the inventor only gets 20% of the benefit as competitors get the other 80% benefit of a new product.  Hence 20% of the 33% estimate leaves the 7% estimate for US benefit. That 7% applies to the 10% research part of the budget, so military spending is 99.3% not stimulative.

Roosevelt and War

The economy grew 86% in the eight prewar years from 1933 to 1941 as Keynes advised Roosevelt to spend money and he ran a combined 31% deficit in those years.  That’s an average growth rate of almost 11% per year with a mostly jobs program deficit of 4% of the economy per year.  The unemployment rate dropped from 25% in 1933 to 10% in 1941.  Happy days were here again.  Note how the New Deal got triple the growth rate from their deficits.  The war did fully employ people again, with an average unemployment rate of about 2%.  Note that both periods, New Deal and war, reduced unemployment about 2% per year.  But look how inefficient the deficit was with military deficits.  The four war years grew 26% on 155% deficits.  That’s 6.5% growth on 39% deficits on average.  So the multiplier under New Deal programs was 2.75 and under the war was 0.17.  That makes the peacetime deficit multiplier 16 times more effective that the war time deficit multiplier.  Giving all the credit to the war for ending the Depression is to mistake an accident of historical timing for cause and effect.  Military spending is an extremely inefficient way to stimulate the economy.

Summary

Two different twenty year international developed world comparisons by Ruth Leger Sivard suggest that military spending represents lost capital investment and lost manufacturing productivity growth rate in the economy, while clearly giving a local economic boost.  But closer inspection always shows that military spending positives are offset in other parts of the economy.  The sizes of military increases in wartime or peacetime are always greatly in excess of the so-called economic growth benefits.  Deficits stimulate economic growth and military spending is often a part of that deficit, but the offsets in national capital investment and manufacturing productivity growth show up clearly in local and national statistics.  Hence military spending is a popular excuse to avoid paying taxes to balance off spending increases.  Yet military spending is a very inefficient way to provide stimulus.  Hence the truism, military spending is non productive.

For 10 key “defining” statistical models of Military Economics:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics

For a complete hundred year war and peace economy history of America since 1910:

https://www.academia.edu/4044532/HISTORY_Presidents_Military_Economy_1910-2009

For more on the regional economic nature:

https://www.academia.edu/5740273/MIDWEST_and_the_Military_3_pages_2005

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, info: www.realeconomy.com

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, contact:  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

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