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How Many Are Going Wrong

What is holding back the widespread acceptance of my basic Peace Economics theories is that other people cling to notions in their respective fields that are just plain inadequate or wrong.  This is where winning the Nobel Peace Prize could make a scientific revolution difference, with a million dollars to help get the word out.  So this paper is devoted to some of the long list of groups or occupations that are handicapped by inadequate understandings held by their narrow fields of expertise.  My work started with economics but it rapidly grew into much broader interdisciplinary understandings because military spending and empire are at the heart of so many other issues.  What makes it possible for me to do this work is that I have a deep understanding of many important fields, nine listed on my resume, and that keeps me from getting stuck in the limitations of any one field.  I have politics for breadth, and engineering for depth, both words and numbers.  Then there is business and accounting for different ways of looking at the economy.  My war-gaming background helps me understand history and war.  Sports, religion, and art are not in my list of nine specialties, but I have extensive experience in each area and have woven those three into my work as well.  Forecasting expertise is another specialty strength not explicitly emphasized on my resume.

Economists

While economists work with numbers and charts, just as I do, they are very good only with microeconomics, business economics, supply and demand, not very good at macroeconomics as many will readily admit.  Forecasting is clearly a weakness.  The adherence to one of three schools, Monetarists, Keynesians, and Marxists (sorry Vienna I put you in the first group) resembles that of religion more than that of science.  Each school seeks to outmaneuver the others to support their particular belief system, using numbers, charts, and argument.  They are social scientists working in the area of partial truths rather than verities, so argument is left to resolve the ambiguities.  Peace Economics found some bedrock truths to build a model on and that model had solid accuracy because it was carefully built up (see 28 steps) on solid findings.  Peace Economics rises above the soft social science world of the other three economic theories into the hard physics accurate world of the Newtonian physics that dominates most of the engineering fields.

Politicians

Politicians are by nature generalists and word people, seldom any good at numbers like I am.  They are usually among the 90% of the population who are number-phobic.  They are fond of the phrase, “lies, darn lies, and statistics” because they are so used to abusing statistics to make an argument.  Political scientists are interested in getting votes and who gets the most votes, so they often live in a world of emotion rather than hard realities.  They live by the word and die by the word, numbers just confuse people they think.  They see the military spending going into prosperous communities but fail to see the reverse effect to productive industries, especially manufacturing, during those same military buildup years.  They see the power attached to military spending but fail to see the enormous toll of crime and corruption that goes with that same power in those same communities.

Historians

The biggest fallacy in the world of history is that history is biography.  Many college students get a history degree because there is no math requirement, hence many historians are number-phobic.  One local radio show historian showed his bigotry against numbers and me by calling me a numerologist.  This same person incorrectly cited Boeing stock going up after 9-11 when in fact it went down.  That’s because he didn’t know 80% of Boeing’s business was commercial aircraft, and unlike most other major defense contractors, like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, Boeing was not almost solely dependent on military spending.  Arnold Toynbee got it right that high military spending is a big factor in the demise of most all empires, but he and Paul Kennedy are the rare exceptions from the biography is destiny majority of historians.  Most historians tend to overlook or underplay the military spending role in the economy.  Many even think military spending leads to economic prosperity, while in reality military spending is taking resources from those that can’t stop military encroachment.  Perhaps they ignore the development economic literature that resource based economies seldom prosper in the long run.  Militarism can sometimes prosper in the short run, but backfires in the long run.  Science, imagination, and goods production are the real enduring sources of prosperity.

Religion

The religious believe that world peace can be attained one person at a time.  They believe we can change hearts and all will be well.  They fail to see that the military industrial complex can easily arouse the people into a war fever.  They fail to see that politicians know they need a good war to go down in the history books as a great leader.  They fail to see that politicians court the military when seeking power, as guns are seen as more reliable than prayers.  Stalin once famously said “How many divisions does the Pope have?”  Nonviolent movements succeed twice as often as violent ones do, but tell that to the people of Syria today.  Leaders with a conscience are malleable, but ruthless leaders are a much tougher nut to crack.

Environmentalists

The depletion of resources and soil can bring down an empire eventually.  But the islands of Japan have built prosperity with little in the way of resources, employing trade and low military spending after militarism didn’t work in World War II.  The world is in deep trouble due to excessive carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from increasing use of fossil fuels worldwide.  But the science of the greenhouse effect is also subject to the laws of diminishing returns.  I attended one global warming class where students were to experiment to see the effects of different changes on a climate model.  They were instructed to go out one century to see the results.  One student went out two centuries and saw the temperature rise leveling off in the second century.  This accords with the science that shows that each doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will give a certain rise in temperature.  That means the response is not linear, but actually slows the increase over time with a linear input increase.  But when the IPPC has 205 specialties and does not include the 54 year cycle, they are left grasping for straws to explain the fifteen year stall in global warming since 1998 until the last two years.  Because differential evaporation rates occur over land and water, the land heats up three times as fast as the ocean for 27 years before the ocean starts bringing the land back into balance over another 27 years creating the great land ocean cycle on Earth.  At the peak relative temperature, first a decade of  droughts happens before the peak, then a decade of floods just after the peak.  The environmentalists are either geographers or meteorologists.  One thinks in terms of millions or thousands of years and the other thinks very short term like days, weeks, or a few years at most.  No one focuses on the work lifetime level of 54 years.  Even if they did, they would not see results repeat in one working lifetime for field studies.  Of the hundreds of academics studying the cycle, only I have sought to connect and explain the three cycles of temperature, economics, and wars.

Criminologists

Modern American criminologists are at a loss to explain the sudden drop of crime in the nineties.  That’s because they fail to see the crime is a function of militarism.  When the military spending share of the economy suddenly dropped at the end of the Cold War in 1991, it took several years for the crime to drop to the new low levels of the late nineties.  That’s because it took time for the people raising the next crop of children to lower the level of fear and anxiety and less young adults were being taught the skills of mortal combat.  Prison rates are considered a function of the number of people aged 18 to 30.  I expect the delay to be related to the 18 years of raising a child to adulthood or the phasing in of the lower military force impact on the twelve years from age 18-30 of crime likelihood.  The statistics look more like the early twenties aged military force level is key to the overall crime rate, as it gradually dropped from 1991 to about 1996, mainly that first five years after the military spending drop.  Detoxification takes time.  Once the drop was in place, the level stayed low in spite of the rise in military spending after 2001, although that rise was small compared to the Cold War levels.

Trade Treaties

Those looking at trade treaties to blame for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the developed world are usually overlooking an even stronger factor.  Sure there is the attraction of low wages in the developing world, but there is also the Military buildup withdrawal of resources (like research engineering and capital) from manufacturing.  That loss to the military adds vulnerability to trade deals by not upgrading manufacturing to higher quality levels, like the Germans do.

For the complete 24 page booklet enclosed in the Peace Economics video:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

For definitive proof that Peace Economics is a new level of precision scientific discovery:

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

A later update of this formula for another 13 years to 1996 showed the formula still accurate.

Twenty-first century tests show the basis principles continue to apply and predict.

I have two 2000 word peer reviewed listings coming out in the SAGE Encyclopedia of War in October 2016, one on “Military Keynesianism” and the other on “Political Economy of War”.

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

To be announced October 7, in Oslo Norway.

Real Economy Institute,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

Empire Explains USA Best

America is going through a lot of problems right now.  Americans for the first time in their history no longer believe the next generation will be better off than their parents’ generation.  Manufacturing employment, 40% in the fifties has shrunk to 10% today.  For many decades, America had trade surpluses, now since the eighties it has had trade deficits.  The national debt has grown to the size of the annual economy for the first time since fighting World War II.  Income inequality has hit historical highs, even higher than just before the Great Depression of the thirties.  Crime is at record levels compared to other developed countries, although half the rate of the last decade of the Cold War.  Politics is in gridlock.  How did we get this way and is there a way out?  Looking at America as a modern empire is the best way to explain it all.  High military spending leads directly to all those consequences given enough time.  Lowering military spending is the only way out.

Modern Empire 8-6-16

This traces the evolution of society and institutions over time as militarism gradually changes the nature of a society.

Football Baseball Empire 5-28-16

Pure sports are healthy, empire sports are full of violence and militarism.  This paper explores how the top sport of a nation can shift under the pressures of empire and widespread war.

Control Freak Society 3-14-15

Power and control are the opposites of freedom and ingenuity.  An achievement society has healthy economic growth, a power and control society comes from an excessively militarized society.  Control freaks are much more prevalent in a more militarized society.

Modern Feudalism 2-21-15

If the complete absence of military spending is world peace, the extensive presence of militarism all around a society is feudalism, like the Middle and Dark Ages of Europe.  This paper discusses these issues, lords and serfs, castles and moats, and explains the nature of that system compared to present times in America.

Religion and Empire 1-3-15

The cooptation of the Christian religion by the Roman Empire has turned the church away from nonviolence allowing war under just war theory.  This is a clear contradiction with the gospels.  This revisits the historical and religious records into a new interpretation of scripture.

12 Days of Empire 11-29-14

This is a parody of the Christmas song.

Capitalism vs Empire 11-23-14

Socialism and the two capitalistic economic theories, monetarism and Keynesianism, each have some evidence in their favor and some evidence against.  These three types are belief systems rather than scientific systems.  I seek to replace all three with Peace Economics.  Empire Economics is the best way to explain Peace Economics other than by mathematics.  The uncanny mathematical precision of my theory is the basis for my confidence in this.

10 Empire Warps 10-12-14

These are examples of distortions military spending and militarism will eventually inflict on society.

12 Stages of Empire 9-29-14

This is the earlier version of the Modern Empire paper mentioned first in this list.

Work and Empire 7-26-14

This takes a closer look at work and occupations that fit the empire mold.

Empire Concept 2-18-14

This looks at the importance of the empire concept to explain the many deviations from previous norms affecting American society.

Health and Crime 12-13-13

The Spirit Level book provides a rationale for poor health and crime resulting from a developed nation’s level of income inequality.  But their correlations on the main factors of their index are only half as accurate as my military spending long term averages correlating to those factors.  Empire is a better explanation than income inequality for these ugly statistics.

Crime and Empire 12-5-13

Murder and crime are proportional to the long term average military spending of a developed nation.  Here is the statistical connection between the social decay of empire and the military spending that brings an empire down.  The two decades it takes to raise a child to adulthood are the formative years.  The military spending percentage of an economy during this time determines the crime rate.

For the complete texts of the thirteen press releases:

https://www.academia.edu/28545758/EMPIRE_Explains_America_Best_2013-2016_13p

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

To be announced October 7, in Oslo Norway.

Real Economy Institute,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

War Decision Mechanisms

There’s an excellent new book in this subject area by Rosa Brooks “How Everything Became War and the Military Became Everything” that I just heard about on C-SPAN Book TV.  But here are seven former press releases I chose to bundle together on this issue.  The first two are basic natural cycle understandings, the next gives a defense strategy for the fact that military depletes the economy, then two issues about the executive branch roles.  The last two are classic Peace Economics with a variety of unusual observations of the economic record about war and a refutation of the much overstated case that war produces important innovations.

War Cycle, 54 Years Long

This first piece needs the important additional information that the long cycle, after extensive research, clearly seems to come about because the land of the planet heats up much faster than the ocean.  This happens because evaporation is by some estimates up to 85% of the solar radiation hitting the Earth’s surface.  By simple algebra using the fact that land is 29% and ocean 71% of the Earth’s surface suggests that evaporation is 90% over ocean and 73% over land.  Then the remainder of solar radiation directly warms the land 27% and the ocean 10%, confirmed by a variety of effects.  Thus the land warming much faster than the ocean leads to 27 years of warming ending in severe droughts followed by the ocean rebalancing the Earth with floods at first in the next 27 years of cooling.  These effects drive economic changes which drive the war cycle as detailed in the article.

Major Wars Happen in Cold Years

The midpoint and end of the economic growth cycle tend to have major wars, and amazingly these wars tend to start after a two or three year burst of cooling hits a relative low in the Earth’s temperature cycle.  For some reason the wars tend to start in these low temperature episodes, as detailed in this article.

Low Level Military Defense

National defense in the long run depends on a strong economy.  But military spending depletes capital investment and the manufacturing sector.  What then becomes too much military in the long run and too little military in the short run?  This was the basic issue in the Defense Strategy chapter of my 1986 book Peace Economics.  This is also the essence of this article published in December 2015, still the most popular press release of the last two years, although the July 2016 “Nature of Military Spending” is a close second and might end up passing “Low Level Military Defense.”

National Security State

This classic was born in a sociology class I took in about 1985 from Val Burris of the University of Oregon on power structure.  I compared Secretaries of State and Defense since World War Two back then and the pattern continues today.  State tends to be hawkish and Defense tends to be dovish.  The reasons why are enumerated in this article.  This is the reverse of most public opinion.

CIA Presidents: Obama Clinton 

This piece cites the post-Cold War experience of electing presidents.  The Cold War experience is that all 11 elections were won by candidates from high per capita military spending states.  The other prominent CIA president would be the first George Bush elected in 1988.  There is a picture of a man that looks just like George Bush watching the Kennedy assassination in 1963.  He later became CIA head under Ford, inventing the A team and B team CIA estimates to inflate the Soviet threat.  He was important in the October Surprise of 1980 and Iran Contra in 1986, although he escapes serious scrutiny in all these cases.  But this piece is mainly about Clinton and Obama showing that covert militarism has replaced overt military spending in the presidential candidate’s home state for Democrats in the post-Cold War environment.  The powers that be aren’t about to let someone be elected “emperor” of the world without some important connection to the national security state.

War and Occupy Economics  

This account goes over a variety of lessons learned from examining the year by year record of the last century or so regarding war and the economy.  All war “booms” are followed by post war “busts.”  What creates a war boom is usually a large deficit, so most wars are borrowing sprees and post war paying off the debt will depress the economy.  Economies under occupation under-perform by about 40% and neutral countries have flat economies while their neighbors are at war.

The Worthlessness of War  

This is a retort to the puff piece book that inflates the record of innovations during wartime.  Much research originates in the civilian sector and then gets used in wartime “innovations.”  What would modern warfare be like without the civilian inventions of the railroad, the automobile, and the airplane?  Inventions like fire and the wheel were not for warfare.  The internet came after inventions by British and Swiss scientists led the way.

For the complete text of the seven press releases:

https://www.academia.edu/28245203/WAR_Decision_Mechanisms_2013-2016_8p

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

To be awarded October 7, in Oslo Norway.

Real Economy Institute,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

Special Recognition Award

The Dr. Peace train is gaining momentum.  The West Suburban Faith Based Peace Coalition of Chicago, mainly Du Page County centered, has an annual dinner to celebrate their peace essay contest.  The basis of their peace essay is the Kellogg Briand Pact of 1928 outlawing war and the threat of war in international affairs.  Unfortunately, this agreement is largely ignored in the world today.  Students in particular were encouraged to enter.  An 800 word letter to a significant person in the world is sent out and the reply is included in order to be eligible to win the first second and third place cash awards.  Dr. Peace was encouraged repeatedly to send in a submission, but when he did, he found out about the reply.  Sending to presidential candidates was too much to ask for such busy people, and even broadening the request out to third party candidates Jill Stein of the Greens and Austin Peterson of the Libertarians left no reply.  Still the committee apparently liked my entry enough to earn a Special Recognition Award and a give me a five minute acceptance speech at the banquet on the anniversary of the agreement August 27, 2016.

It was noted at the banquet that the main speaker, Kathy Kelly, is a three time nominated person for the Nobel Peace Prize, and that I was a one time nominee.  The main winner of the award was not present due to being from another country far away, but had a representative there.  It was my random good fortune to end up at the same table as the second place winner, son of a staff person for Democratic U.S. Senate Leader Harry Reid.  His letter was addressed to Senator Reid who did reply to the letter.  I was able to enjoy conversation with his dad as I gave both of them the flyer I passed out to everyone about the “Paradigm Shifts of Peace Economics” which would have been the subject of the last monthly coffee house meeting until I had to cancel due to a schedule conflict.  Encouraged by the conversation I also gave both the son and the dad copies of my “Summary of Military Dis-Economics” one page summary of the thirteen key correlations that define the essence of my theories.

When the moment came for my speech, after the main speaker and before the award winners, I decided the best idea to focus in on was the concept of empire, how military spending leads to empire decline and how that decline shapes the health, safety, civic structure, and politics of the whole society as a direct result.  The main organizer sent me this thank you:  “Thanks, Bob.  You added a lot to the success of the program and you did a wonderful job of summarizing your contribution to the understanding of the benefits to a peace-focused economy.”  My colleague present thought I was a highlight of the whole event.  At the end of my speech I awarded copies of my video to the main speaker and a peace columnist for the Chicago Tribune.  The aide to Senator Reid asked for a copy of the video and I went back to my car and found two more copies and gave him one and took a donation for the other copy from a lady I later found out to be another one of the organizers.  Every one standing around afterwards was eager to talk with me, as I talked with several people.  I urged a social scientist to nominate me for next year’s Nobel Peace Prize, as I expect the process could take several years.

Next month, October 2016, the SAGE Encyclopedia of War is due to be published with two peer reviewed entries of mine in it, each 2000 words, “Military Keynesianism” and “Political Economy of War.”

For the text of the contest entry letter:

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/04/23/dear-future-us-president/

For the five paradigm shifts in the flyer distributed:

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/04/30/paradigm-shifts-of-peace-economics/

For a one page summary of the scope and accuracy of my work given to the Senator’s aide:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_HighAccuracy13

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

to be awarded October 7, in Oslo Norway.

Real Economy Institute,

contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

info www.realeconomy.com

Denmark the Land of Hamlet

I had an amazing week in Denmark, also attended the conference on Engineers for Social Justice and Peace August 10-12, 2016.  I talked to a reporter in the Copenhagen airport.  He is very tired of all Trump all the time news, skeptical of Hillary’s hawkishness, loves Obama.

I learned some lessons from the developed nation highest on the happiness index.  Felt the wind that makes Denmark the leader in wind power.  Saw the slogan in the train station.  Paraphrasing, it says life moves too fast, you have to slow down and enjoy it before you miss it entirely, the attitude of a happy nation.  Cigarette smoke everywhere, explaining why the lifespan is unusually short for a developed country.  The smoke makes me think of America fifty years ago and a 1994 Lufthansa overseas flight on a trip to Berlin, where the air continuously circulated from the smoking section to the rest of the plane, leaving the smell of a dull haze of old smoke everywhere.  Also reminds me of the Oslo, Norway airport in 1999 where the smell of smoke was always strongest near the “Niet Roken” no smoking signs.

On the happiness front, another commuter offered both of us a Tuborg beer on the Friday afternoon train ride.  Must be legal is my first thought.  Probably happy Swedes was the second thought.  The impromptu party was fun.  The next day as we waited for train tickets, someone came around offering everyone a cherry on top lemon on bottom popsicle.  All this was very good for the happiness quotient of the Happy nation.  Someone explained to me that this all relates to a Danish cultural norm of some kind, he gave me the multi-syllable word for it.

The hotel computers weren’t easy to use until you found a way to convert to English.  I could update my spreadsheets at the Scandic but not the Cabinn.  Expertclick.com was on the blocked list when I arrived, but they fixed that one day later.  Denmark is not a terrorist haven nation or hacking nation like Russia, so the person in charge of the press release website was happy to get my feedback to correct the list of nations eligible for the website information.

Highlights of the Trip

Meeting my nephew and his friend on Saturday was a clear highlight of the trip.  My nephew went abroad Junior year at Cornell and stayed in Copenhagen long enough to become a permanent resident of Denmark.  Although he wanted me to not talk about Peace Economics, he was impressed with the Nobel Peace Prize nomination and vetting.  I talked a lot with his friend, to the point his friend wanted my website address.

At the conference we were given five minutes to introduce ourselves.  The first speaker took 12 minutes and others about three minutes.  When I took 12 minutes I was cut off by the moderator just before my finish, which was interesting to most of those present according to my colleague.  Later, on a ride to the country, the driver got a good dose of my high level thinking, and later I gave him a copy of my video dvd pamphlet combination.  The moderator of much of the program later asked for a copy of my dvd.  The moderator cut off was the first of three rude interruptions of my comments, the other two were American women in small four person groups.  Even though I was clearly making a presence, I was snubbed by many old timers in the conference.  I suggested an important addition to the final discussion of communes visited, but the other 12 minute introducer couldn’t remember who had suggested that three commune summary.  Some people are impressed with my Nobel Peace Prize nomination and others are put off by a newcomer making such strange claims.  Almost nobody knows how to handle the precision of my results and models, which leaves very little room for the many half baked normal findings by such an academic community.  Accuracy should govern, but skepticism seems to rule the day.  As the Thomas Kuhn book suggests, when a new paradigm comes along, the old guard resists the new paradigm until they die.  Then the next generation takes over and makes the new paradigm standard.  Living through this process is very hard on me.  It just isn’t true that if you make a better mousetrap the world will make a path to your door.  Marketing comes first.  I’ve been slow and reluctant to publish peer reviewed articles, knowing how much better the theory is put all together than as thirteen separate articles.  Still just this year I have written two 2000 word encyclopedia listings in the SAGE “Encyclopedia of War” for the social sciences.  One was for “Military Keynesianism” and the other for “Political Economy,” both to be released October 2016.  It took many edits with the editors, but many important points made it into the final text.

The communes we visited were classic.  The first was out in the country and began with a purchase of an old country manor.  The second was not a commune at all, but a community center for refugees, which included social services and entertainment events.  Legal cases were prepared for there.  The last commune was formed in 1971 when old military barracks were taken over by squatters.  Like the first one out in the country, they employed a consensus model of group decision making.  This was the famous part of Copenhagen called Christiana, where marijuana is openly sold by vendors despite the law against this.  Arts and music also were a major feature of the urban center commune with a population of 800, including 760 adults.

During and after the conference, views of my http://www.bobreuschlein.wordpress.com website soared to make Denmark go from complete obscurity (outside the top ten) to number two for the year, second only to the United States which gets 85% of my viewings.  Oddly, the only viewing from Denmark for the year until this and last month was in March, immediately followed by extremely intense interest around my “10 Scientific Revolution Facts” based on a book review of Thomas Kuhn’s famous work.  This led to a lot of US only views of that press release blog entry.  I suspect someone from the US embassy in Denmark heard about my work, perhaps from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, and suggested it to others.  That could have been the CIA head in Denmark, given the facts of the case.  This led to five times as many views for “10 Scientific Revolution Facts” as the second most viewed blog this year.

One page summary of the scope and accuracy of my military and temperature work:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_HighAccuracy13

I have been vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, 

to be announced October 7, in Oslo Norway.

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Real Economy Institute,

contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

information hub: www.realeconomy.com

Modern Stages of Empire

#1.  Isolation and Growth. An emerging society with potential can grow if ignored by older militarized neighbors and allowed to devote resources to economic growth rather than wasteful military spending.  Separation from others by large bodies of water can also help.  Navies are a low cost way to achieve superiority over other nations tied down with large land army costs.

#2.  Economic Dominance. The emerging nation over the course of several decades will eventually overtake the slower growing militarized nations around it and becomes the dominant economic power.  Access to resources and fertile land can help a lot along the way.

#3.  Military Domination War. Economic domination usually leads to military domination after war between the top two economic powers. Usually the other power has been dominant but has limited its growth through militarism allowing the new power to catch up and overtake it.

#4.  Military Control of Others. Military domination leaves the new power in an unfamiliar position, leading to maintaining high levels of peacetime military power in the mistaken belief that it is now a rich society and can afford to maintain a higher level of military spending.  This feeling of hubris comes from the sense that the society is just better than others, not understanding that the low military start was what allowed that society to emerge, not some intrinsic superiority.

#5.  Economic Control of Others.  The new power can dominate now both militarily and economically and proceeds to do so.  The military asserts that they are the reason others trade with the power, falsely claiming that resources will only be made available to those with the most power.  In reality, resources are available to those who are able to pay the price.

#6.  Military: Source of Political and Economic Power Internally. The military now becomes a dominant internal force and begins to dominate and control politically and economically within its own original nation.  The government taxes slow down growing industries in order to pay the new huge military budget.  Control of that huge military budget becomes a major source of power.  Government control goes with the territory of the new high military landscape.  In turn, the military now captures control of those in power.

#7.  Destination for the Young.  The new dominant society attracts aspiring young people from around the world who want to be a part of the highest level of civilization.  This reflects the saying that “all roads lead to Rome” in the case of the Roman Empire.  In America, 75% of immigrants are talented professionals and businesspeople, earning two and a half times as much as average Americans.

#8.  Military Industrial Complex Dominates Government.   The high levels of military spending lead to the formation of a military industrial complex that turns its dependency on the government around and starts to dominate and control the government.  Which came first, the chicken or the egg, doesn’t matter as each depends on the other.

#9.  Generating Wars to Dominate Internally and Externally.  The new military economy justifies itself to the larger community by generating and rationalizing new wars to increase its domination both internally and externally.

#10.  Economy Erodes as Scientists, Engineers, and Capital Wasted.  The economy erodes with the new high levels of military spending as the best resources of scientific talent, engineering talent, and capital investment are consumed in the nonproductive military economy.

#11. Workforce and Society Stagnate and Change. The new slower growing economy that emerges now demands a “sideways” workforce to manage the stagnation. Soon the whole society changes to meet the new situation. The command and control nature of the military reinforces these internal changes. Top down management dominates over collegial management as income mobility becomes more difficult from one generation to the next and a class oriented society emerges.  Crime, poor health, and income inequality grow. Drugs, lotteries, and other forms of desperation emerge.

#12. Collapse or Replacement.  The now collapsing society can salvage some of its former glory by abandoning expensive overseas entanglements, or seeking another society to take over its formal role of dominance.  New international institutions can help make either task easier.

For more information about how these twelve points apply to America:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

to be awarded 11am October 7, 2016 in Oslo Norway.

Real Economy Institute,

contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

info www.realeconomy.com

Land Ocean 54 Year Cycle

Evaporation

Evaporation is the key to the land ocean cycle.  When solar radiation reaches the Earth’s surface it evaporates water.  Stephen Schneider wrote in one of his books that 85% of incident solar radiation evaporated water, 90% over ocean.  Simple algebra suggests about 90% of the 71% water covered surface and 73% of the 29% land covered surface would give the overall 85% figure.  That leaves 10% for direct warming on the ocean and 27% for direct warming on the land.  Modern estimates suggest 67% evaporation, which if that figure was measured over land, would tend to support the above calculation.  Whatever the numbers, it’s clear that land warms faster than ocean, three times faster by these numbers, but whatever the numbers clearly land has less water to evaporate than the ocean does.  Then the fact that the land heavy Northern Hemisphere has three times the seasonal variation in temperatures as the Southern Hemisphere would support these estimates.  The last 150 years the land has warmed about twice as much as the ocean.

Temperature Mapping

When you spend endless hours poring over annual temperature variations over various large sections of the Earth you can eventually discover where the 54 year cycle comes from.  First you notice that a variety of multi-year averaged temperature sets have a common year for peak and valley dates.  For the United States, these dates come every 27 years between peak and valley.  Then you notice the hotter Hemisphere alternates between North and South on a 108 year cycle.  Then you notice the Northern Latitudes take a big leap in temperature when the next North cycle begins as the South cycle ends.  Approaching the peak, major droughts occur, at the peak major floods start, signaling the reclaiming of the out of control land by the ocean.  For the United States, when the North land 48 year cycle was peaking the two major droughts were interior.  When the South ocean 60 year cycle was peaking, there was only one major drought interior with three large coastal states caught in seven year droughts, showing how the South ocean Hemisphere in ascendency changes the pattern of the second 54 year cycle.  The global temperature peak in the North cycle came in 1944 while the global peak in the South cycle came in 1998, with those two peaks exactly 54 years apart.

Event Mapping

My first event mapping was after the 1988 drought 52 and 54 years after the 1936 and 1934 drought, when Jim Hansen reported the United States temperature and precipitation history back to 1895.  Those are the three major United States droughts of the twentieth century.  Now I have 56 major events on my latest chart, with Hurricane Sandy flooding the battery in New York in 2012, for the first time since 1960 52 years before, the last major addition.  Of the 56 peak to peak events, 20 are exact to the year.  Overall, the 56 events are 1.5 years off a perfect 54 year cycle, about 95% accurate if you divide the error range of three years by 54.

Economic Growth

The general rule in transferring the natural cycle into the economic growth cycle is that the economy is stronger when it is cooling and weaker when it is warming.  There are at least four main levels of proof of this relationship.  First there is a study in the dry cleaning industry, similar to Maxwell Taylor’s railroad study in the 1890’s, that shows productivity decreases as temperature exceeds the normal office temperature of 72 degrees Fahrenheit.   That NASA (dry cleaners not space) study shows that productivity decreases 37% at 95 degrees F. and 18% at 85 degrees F. Second, using the Hansen drought study temperature data, clustered into five year periods, in 15 of 18 periods of the United States economy, when it cooled the economy increased faster and when it warmed the economy worsened.  The one clearest case of greatest change was the late twenties to the early thirties, when warming increased half a century’s worth in one five year period to the next, and the economy went into the Great Depression.  Third, it’s obvious that temperate zone economies have generally done better than tropical economies.  In America and Europe, the Northern states and countries outperform the Southern states and countries, generally.  America, with a larger summer winter temperature swing than Europe, has generally done better.  Fourth, Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) have shown that every stock market in the world does better November to April than May to October.  Those six coldest months in the United States outperform the six warmest months by about 6% in a twenty year study by Finance Professor Pat Brown of UW Madison circa 2011.  So the general rule in 54 year economic cycles is the 27 years of relative cooling do better than the 27 years of relative heating up. The United States economic growth rate peaked in 1898, bottomed in 1928, and peaked in 1952 and bottomed in 1982 according to most multi year moving averages.  2006 is the next peak in that pattern, as the economy did peak in 2007 just before the Great Recession of 2008-2009.  The 24 year up cycle and 30 year down cycle resembles the 48 year North cycle and 60 year South cycle of the natural world.  In general, up cycle is clearer and stronger than down cycle.

War Cycle

The war cycle is a combination of the temperature cycle and the economic cycle.  Civil Rights and other political events also tend to be in the cycle, but the war cycle is the clearest to measure and understand.  In general, a secondary war leads the major war, by about 18 years in the United States and 15 years in Europe. The start date and deaths are the best measures to use. The secondary war tends to be a testing war in the middle of the economic growth period.  This tends to be a mismatch, with a stronger country taking on a weaker country.  For America, this usually happens about the same year of the long term growth peaking. The major war then comes at the end of the economic growth cycle when wealth is maximized, and the growth has helped create a new economic order among nations.  Then the strongest tendency is for the number one national economy to take on the number two national economy.  Hence the war is major and very bloody.  Coincidentally, this happens after a two or three year cooling leading to the coldest year of a period of time.  That coldest year is the start of war year in most of the major cases in the last 150 years or so.  Perhaps this cooling increases hubris into a danger zone.  This timing also comes about 3 or 4 years after the peak growth cycle has statistically ended by long term standards.  So a sense of waning power enhances the tendency of politicians to distract the public away from economics and substitute war fever instead.  So this time period is unique in a number of ways that combine to build the pressure to go to war.  Into such a tinderbox, all you need to do is throw in a lighted match.

Summary

The long cycle starts in nature and affects the economy ultimately leading into war.  Hence the natural cycle and its events, the economic cycle and its events, and the war political cycle and its events are all interrelated. Because we really have two different Earths, one on the land, and one on the ocean, we have long overlooked the important interaction between these two giants of the Earth system.  We readily recognize other astronomical effects, such as the rotation that produces the day and night cycle.  Then there is the tilt of the Earth spinning on its axis that produces the annual seasons.  Then there are the very long spectrum of effects that produce the coming and going of ice ages.  In between the short term cycles and the geological time frame cycles lies a little noted and studied 54 year cycle.  Kondratiev, a Leninist Marxist economist studied this cycle in pig iron production in 1926.  Unfortunately that burden of the communist label, despite his execution by Stalin in 1938, has allowed Western economists to largely ignore his work. Then there is Klyashtorin who broke down 1400 years of ice core data from Greenland into its La Place transform frequencies, finding a very strong result for the 55 year cycle.  In the Americas, both the Quitlcastl and Aztec civilizations had long noticed a 52 year cycle of natural events, even building pueblos with four levels of 13 units each, and rotating around the maypole 13 times with 4 strands coming out.  So the long cycle has been noticed studied and worshipped by many peoples over the centuries, both the Quitlcastl and Aztec civilizations had long noticed a 52 year cycle of natural events, even building pueblos with four levels of 13 units each, and rotating around the maypole 13 times with 4 strands coming out.  So the long cycle has been noticed studied and worshipped by many peoples over the centuries.

This link takes you to the 56 modern events of the cycle: https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56Cycle

This link gives you a broader understanding of the natural cycle with extra documents:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_9p._2014

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, info: www.realeconomy.com

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, contact:  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

America: Violent Society

America is plagued with a lot of problems these days.  Why is that?  We have followed the typical path of many empires before us.  What is different is we have the data now to prove the point.  This is why my most popular presentation is called “Empire Economics.”

The Founding Fathers knew how corrupting wars can be and avoided excessive military entanglements.  Keeping a minimal military between wars maximized the growth potential of the young nation.  The people were left to decide what was best for them, and they were industrious and successful.  Success is the best cure for crime and violence.  Excessive militarism promotes all the conditions for higher crime and violence. Many on the political left focus on guns to explain our condition in America, but looking internationally, empire and high military spending do a much better job of explaining international differences.  Many European countries have very few gun murders, yet have overall murder rates proportional to their military spending just like in the United States of America.  One presidential candidate claims to be the law and order candidate, yet both crime and illegal immigration are the lowest in about forty years under the Obama administration.  Still we are very high in crime compared to other industrialized nations.

The following earlier postings are brought together in “Violent Society America” with a link to the full text of all seven.  Here are brief summaries:

Cycles of War and Violence

Why are we making so many parallels to the sixties with today’s times and events?  Well because the 54 year cycle is a very real land ocean cycle on this planet that affects natural events, economics and wars among other things.  So it is useful to subtract 54 years from 2016 and get 1962, roughly the middle of the civil rights struggle of that time.  We are in the early stages of another civil rights era struggle.  The secondary war peaks in 2006 (Iraq War was 3 years early) and the major war peaks around 2024 average or 2025 most frequent.  The Vietnam War, due about 1970, came five years early in 1965.  Korea came two years early in 1950 instead of the average historical date of 1952.

Baltimore Riot the New Watts 

The Los Angeles Watts riot of 1965 came after a summer heat wave suddenly cooled a bit and the riots started then, the day of the cooling.  The Baltimore riots of 2015 were bigger than the Ferguson riots, hence they seemed a closer comparison to Watts fifty years before.

Why Were Murder and Crime Cut in Half in the Nineties?

Whenever there is a military buildup, manufacturing suffers, thanks to the diversion of research and capital into the military instead.  Likewise, whenever the military is reduced, manufacturing grows, thanks to those same research, engineering, and capital resources being productively employed again.

Thus the near perfect crime and murder rate correlations with a nation’s military spending over a two decade period.  There is a delay period in transition, but the end of the Cold War military spending levels in the nineties lead to high economic growth and low murder and crime rates.  Since social decay accompanies the economic decay of empire, this crime rate international comparison is an excellent indicator of the many social changes in the process.  After about five years the murder rate follows the military spending lower and continues for another decade or so.  This delayed reaction is due to the time of raising a child to adulthood.  This formative experience translates into the crime rate as the economic conditions get better and better.  As the society relies less on mass violence or the threat of mass violence in terms of war, the children become more peaceful and society has less criminals.

Militarized Terror Policing

In the wake of the Ferguson murder by cop, the militarization of the modern police force became evident, showing the changes in our society over time as empire becomes a way of life.  Many policemen served in the Afghanistan or Iraq Wars as National Guard or reserve.  Many police forces took training from the Israelis and were told to shoot first and ask questions later by trainers.  The social worker policepersons of the seventies gradually were replaced with the warrior cops of today.

10 Ferguson Jury Mistakes 

The district attorney needs cops on his side to prosecute people.  This conflict lead to a grand jury situation where the presentation of evidence was all in the cops favor, including a white woman who backed up the policeman’s false narrative to the point that jurors ignored the several black witnesses who saw Michael Brown surrendering with his hands up in the air when he was shot dead with six bullets hitting, including a final head shot as the body fell forward facing the cop.  Multiple shots protect the police officer from facing adverse testimony by the victim.  One month after the verdict not to prosecute the officer, the district attorney revealed in a radio interview that it had been determined that the white woman supporting the police testimony was never present at the scene.  Still today on the far right, from Sean Hannity to Morning Joe, they insist that Michael Brown never had his hands up in surrender.

Control Freak Societies

Top down is the way to go in the military, the way we fought World War II.  Control is the way of empire and perpetual militarism in a society.  It is the opposite of the collegial process of new ideas and innovations needed for healthy economic growth.  Some control is important, but excessive control leads to rigidity and conformity.  A heavy dose of militarism stagnates the economy; it leads to higher unemployment rates and more top down control of the workplace results as employers have the upper hand over employees.  Then control freaks become a way of life in society in general.

Modern Feudalism, Two Cases

Power and control become dominant over equality freedom innovation and achievement in the high military spending society.  This comes to resemble the feudalism that swept Europe in the wake of the Roman Empire’s decline.  The same excessive militarism that leads to the self destruction of empires can carry over in the every fiefdom for itself mentality of castles, drawbridges, lords and serfs in the Middle Ages.  Large scale authority breaks up into micro scale authority.  Armed travel becomes necessary to protect the travelers from many diverse threats.  As militarism and control become ascendant, science and innovation go to sleep.  Churches and castles become the new authorities, and ways of life are perpetuated by heredity and class.  Social mobility ceases to be possible in such a restrictive environment.  Today social mobility in the USA has become much lower than it is in many European countries.

Detailed texts of the collection of seven papers:

https://www.academia.edu/27198787/Violent_Society_in_the_United_States_seven_papers_

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, info: www.realeconomy.com

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, contact:  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Nature of Military Spending

Because the literature is divided over the issue of whether military spending stimulates economic growth or not, my defining work must explain why that perception exists and in fact what is the real nature of military spending that produces this apparent conflict in the literature.  My own exhaustive studies of the long term empirical record, mostly of the last century in America but also with important international checks, clearly show the following results.

Appearance of Local Economic Growth

Locally and regionally, it is clear that economic activity is added to localities where military spending is spent.  That economic activity is similar to manufacturing and other goods producing activities in the normal economy like construction, mining, and agriculture.  Both kinds of economic activity consume large amounts of capital, engineering, and scientific research.

Looking Closer

The local economic growth from military spending is also clearing shown in the US historical state by state record to come with a similar depletion of economic growth in civilian manufacturing and lower economic growth in states and regions high in manufacturing and low in military spending.  So the local economic growth from military spending represents a transfer of resources from low military spending states to high military spending states.  This last point shows up in studies of changes in the per capita military spending by state from year to year in the US Statistical Abstract on the allocation of federal spending.  I have been studying these changes many different ways for many years now, and there is a strong pattern in the states of manufacturing going down as military spending goes up across the many state economies.  In fact, in the top 20 states, the correlation of military spending with the government sector of each state is about 0.83.  So I can say that military spending usually represents the major part of government spending changes state by state.

War Claim:  Military Spending Stimulates Growth

The economy often increases in growth in war years.  When military spending goes down, at the end of a war, the economy often goes into recession.  This would give a correlation of growth with military spending.

Looking Closer

Government borrowing increases substantially during wars, and then the debt is repaid when peace comes.  The federal deficit expands enormously during war periods compared to other periods of time. My essentially perfect long term sixty year model of the US economy is predicated on the simple assumption that deficits raise the economic growth rate of each year and military spending decreases the economic growth rate of each year.  Thus, net military spending, that is military spending minus deficit spending, is the amount of slowing force in the economy.  So the war economy phenomenon is better explained as a federal deficit economy.  Comparing manufacturing productivity growth rates with economic growth rates does suggest some additional war boom that can’t be explained away.  I call this the adrenaline rush boost of a war time situation, also consistent with the post war let down.

Research Claim:  Military Spending Stimulates Growth

In the US case, research has historically been about 10% of the military budget.  Hence this research case for military spending can at most be 10% true for military spending as a whole.  Take the internet claim as an example.  Some say the race to put a man on the moon laid the groundwork for the internet.  British and Swiss scientists claim credit for important parts of the internet, so it’s not just DARPA in the USA that can claim credit for the internet.  Analysts find a much reduced impact of military research by dividing the impact three ways, one for being too military specific, one for secrecy reducing the benefit of interaction with other scientists, and one for dual purpose civilian and military usage of inventions.  Hence 33% effective is a common estimate of the military research impact on the economy.  One pro military buildup expert claims the impact even lower, 7%.  That makes sense in the venture capitalist estimate that the inventor only gets 20% of the benefit as competitors get the other 80% benefit of a new product.  Hence 20% of the 33% estimate leaves the 7% estimate for US benefit. That 7% applies to the 10% research part of the budget, so military spending is 99.3% not stimulative.

Roosevelt and War

The economy grew 86% in the eight prewar years from 1933 to 1941 as Keynes advised Roosevelt to spend money and he ran a combined 31% deficit in those years.  That’s an average growth rate of almost 11% per year with a mostly jobs program deficit of 4% of the economy per year.  The unemployment rate dropped from 25% in 1933 to 10% in 1941.  Happy days were here again.  Note how the New Deal got triple the growth rate from their deficits.  The war did fully employ people again, with an average unemployment rate of about 2%.  Note that both periods, New Deal and war, reduced unemployment about 2% per year.  But look how inefficient the deficit was with military deficits.  The four war years grew 26% on 155% deficits.  That’s 6.5% growth on 39% deficits on average.  So the multiplier under New Deal programs was 2.75 and under the war was 0.17.  That makes the peacetime deficit multiplier 16 times more effective that the war time deficit multiplier.  Giving all the credit to the war for ending the Depression is to mistake an accident of historical timing for cause and effect.  Military spending is an extremely inefficient way to stimulate the economy.

Summary

Two different twenty year international developed world comparisons by Ruth Leger Sivard suggest that military spending represents lost capital investment and lost manufacturing productivity growth rate in the economy, while clearly giving a local economic boost.  But closer inspection always shows that military spending positives are offset in other parts of the economy.  The sizes of military increases in wartime or peacetime are always greatly in excess of the so-called economic growth benefits.  Deficits stimulate economic growth and military spending is often a part of that deficit, but the offsets in national capital investment and manufacturing productivity growth show up clearly in local and national statistics.  Hence military spending is a popular excuse to avoid paying taxes to balance off spending increases.  Yet military spending is a very inefficient way to provide stimulus.  Hence the truism, military spending is non productive.

For 10 key “defining” statistical models of Military Economics:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics

For a complete hundred year war and peace economy history of America since 1910:

https://www.academia.edu/4044532/HISTORY_Presidents_Military_Economy_1910-2009

For more on the regional economic nature:

https://www.academia.edu/5740273/MIDWEST_and_the_Military_3_pages_2005

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, info: www.realeconomy.com

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, contact:  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

No More Trade Wars Please

The real story of the Great Depression trade war starts with America’s mistakes as an emerging world power, our adolescence as a world power, starting with the Philippines and World War I.  Because the Naval Secretary was gone, under secretary Teddy Roosevelt was able to order the US fleet into Manila Bay leading to war in the Philippines and the February 1899 invasion of the Philippines.  This was later to force Japan in World War II to attack the US.  In World War I, US entry came just in time to prevent a German victory.  With fresh troops from the Russian front after Russia pulls out of the war, Germany was on the offensive until the US troops arrived.  This broke the pattern of history where the number one economic power in Europe was denied the victory in the hegemonic war that they normally would have won.  The number three power in Europe, France, then was able to impose retribution not just for the current war, but also for the indignity of the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71.  John Maynard Keynes, the greatest economist of the twentieth century, was a young man on the British negotiating team at Versailles, and later wrote a book about how these reparations payments demanded of the Germans would lead to another war.  He was right.

Reparations

Forcing Germany to pay reparations after an exhausting war, led to the US financing those reparations as the new number one economic power in the world.  But this put US farmers at a disadvantage leading to great farmer suffering in the twenties.  Since about 85% of all revenues for US government in the nineteenth century came from tariffs on foreign imports, the first step was a tariff in 1921.  As an emerging power in the nineteenth century, tariffs helped protect the infant American manufacturing industry in the North from the British manufacturers.  That galled prosperous Southerners with their slavery plantations and was the number two reason for the Civil War after the more obvious slavery.

So the roaring twenties started with the post war depression 1919-1921, then led to Spindletop oil and Ford Model T’s combined for 48% growth in five years from 1922-1926.  That was it, that lone five year period was the roaring twenties.  Then the economy stalled, as the top 20% of American families all had their Model T, so sales stalled.

Electing Hoover

The 1927-28 two year flat economy led to the Hoover election of 1928.  He promised a tariff to protect the long suffering farmers of America as the balance of trade was still suffering from the German reparations financed by American banks.  Hoover’s mistake was not to recognize that Europe was unprepared to put up with America continuing to act like a small emerging power when they were now the largest economy in the world, the equal of Europe as a whole.  Hoover took office and the economy grew 6.6% in 1929.  Still, promises are promises, and the main campaign pledge of Hoover began with a special session of Congress in September 1929.  The process had begun on the Smoot Hawley Tariff.  The stock market and economists could see the impending disaster, so the stock market shuddered twice in September, and crashed four days after the bill came out of committee on October 28, 1929.  But the economy was still doing fine growing even for the first five months of 1930.  1000 economists begged the president not to sign the bill, but he did anyway, on June 11, 1930.  Only then did the economy begin collapsing, -9.9% in 1930, -7.3% in 1931.  Then the Germans stopped paying reparations.  Hoover’s blue ribbon business panel, the Hump Commission recommended spending money.  Instead, Hoover doubled down trying to balance the budget and the economy went -14.8% more into the hole in 1932 and Roosevelt was elected.  The economy stabilized in 1933 with a -1.9% drop for a total drop of 30.2% and a rise of unemployment to 25%.  Meanwhile trade dropped from 7% of the economy down to 2%.  Trade multipliers are high, estimated 8 to 10 in the seventies.  This 5% trade drop with a multiplier of six would explain the drop in the Great Depression.  Further proof that trade war was the main problem in the Great Depression comes from the fact that America and France, the agricultural powers, suffered the most in the agricultural trade war.  The more manufacturing oriented Britain and Germany did not lose share of the world economy in the thirties like America and France did.  France had it worse than America.  This supports the notion that the Smoot Hawley agricultural and mineral tariffs were the main trigger of the Great Depression trade war.

Recovery

The economy grew 86% in the eight prewar years from 1933 to 1941 as Keynes advised Roosevelt to spend money and he ran a combined 31% deficit in those years.  That’s an average growth rate of almost 11% per year with a mostly jobs program deficit of 4% per year.  The unemployment rate dropped from 25% in 1933 to 10% in 1941.  Happy days were here again.  Note how the New Deal got triple the growth rate from their deficits.  The war did fully employ people again, with an average unemployment rate of about 2%.  Note that both periods, New Deal and war, reduced unemployment about 2% per year.  But look how inefficient the deficit was with military deficits.  The four war years grew 26% on 155% deficits.  That’s 6.5% growth on 39% deficits on average.  So the multiplier under New Deal programs was 2.75 and under the war was 0.17.  That makes the peacetime deficit multiplier 16 times more effective that the war time deficit multiplier.  Giving all the credit to the war for ending the Depression is to mistake an accident of historical timing for cause and effect.  Military spending is an extremely inefficient way to stimulate the economy.

Today

When Trump threatens to heavily tax products from factories moved overseas, he is essentially trying to duplicate the capital flow controls of a country like Sweden.  We all know it is a mistake to confuse democracy with capitalism.  Likewise, it is a mistake to confuse product free trade with free capital flows.  It does not impinge on free trade to prevent factories from moving overseas.  Germany has been able to keep their manufacturing economy in the new world of globalization and trade treaties.  Germany has the advantage of labor being able to appoint half the directors of a company, hence when they build a factory overseas, it is a healthy expansion, not a way to undercut domestic labor.  We don’t need to end trade treaties; we just need to control the flow of factories overseas.  Besides, free trade is not free trade; it is negotiated trade, still negotiated between two countries but in a larger overall treaty framework.  Note also that lost research and capital resources are still critical.  Restoring military capital and research to manufacturing in the late nineties grew manufacturing in America despite the 1993 NAFTA and WTO treaties.  Withdrawing military capital and research from manufacturing in the two years after September 11 cost 1.8 million manufacturing jobs.  The trade treaties cost another 1 million manufacturing jobs just before that military buildup.  So reducing the military budget and controlling capital flows overseas are the keys to restoring manufacturing and middle class job growth.

For a complete hundred year war and peace economy history of America since 1910:

https://www.academia.edu/4044532/HISTORY_Presidents_Military_Economy_1910-2009

For more detail on the Depression and Roosevelt War Periods:

https://www.academia.edu/4044531/ROOSEVELT_Depression_War_Unpacking_Myths_1p.

 

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

contact:  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

message: 608-230-6640

info: www.realeconomy.com

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