bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

You Might Think It’s Okay

Thursday March 28, 2019 the US House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff was asked by the Nine Republicans on that committee to resign.  He gave a response for the ages not unlike the House Army McCarthy hearings in May 1956 when Senator McCarthy was finally brought down for his overreach with the comment “Have You No Shame.”  Schiff’s retort “You Might Think It’s Okay” may be the new rallying cry to Trump’s “Roy Cohn” Attorney General William Barr’s latest attempt to whitewash the Trump Russia compromise.  Here is the text of this famous exchange in the United States House of Representatives:

Representative Michael Conaway (R) Texas Intelligence Committee: “We have no faith in your ability to discharge your duties in a manner consistent with your constitutional responsibility and urge your immediate resignation as chairman of the committee.  Mr. Chairman this letter is signed by all nine members of the Republican side of the House on the committee.”

Representative Adam Schiff (D) California Intelligence Committee Chair: “My colleagues may think its okay that the Russians offered dirt on a Democratic candidate for president as part of what was described as the Russian government effort to help the Trump campaign.  You might think that’s okay.  My colleagues might think its okay, that when that was offered to the son of the president, who had a pivotal role in the campaign, that the president’s son did not call the FBI, he did not adamantly refuse that foreign help, no instead that son said that he would love the help of the Russians.  You might think its okay that he took that meeting.  You might think it’s okay that Paul Manafort, the campaign chair, someone with great experience to run a campaign, also took that meeting. You might think it’s okay that the president’s son in law also took that meeting.  You might think it’s okay that they concealed it from the public.  You might think it’s okay that the only disappointment from that meeting was that the dirt on Hillary Clinton wasn’t better.  You might think that’s okay.  You might think it’s okay, that when it was discovered a year later, they then lied about that meeting, said it was about adoption.  You might think that the president helped dictate that lie.  You might think that’s okay, I don’t.  You might think it’s okay that the campaign chairman of a presidential campaign would offer information about that campaign to a Russian oligarch in exchange for money or debt forgiveness.  You might think it’s okay, I don’t.  You might think it’s okay that that campaign chairman offered polling data, campaign polling data to someone linked to Russian intelligence. I don’t think that’s okay.  You might think it’s okay that the president himself called on Russia to hack his opponent’s emails, if they were listening.  You might think it’s okay that later that day the Russians attempted to hack a server affiliated with that campaign.  I don’t think that’s okay.

You might think it’s okay that the president’s son in law sought to establish a secret back channel of communications to the Russians through a Russian diplomatic facility.  I don’t think that’s okay.  You might think it’s okay that an associate of the president made direct contact with the GRU through Guccifer 2.0 and wiki-leaks that is considered a hostile intelligence agency.  You might think it’s okay that a senior campaign official was instructed to reach that associate and find out what that hostile intelligence agency had to say in terms of dirt on his opponent.  You might think its okay that the National Security Advisor designate secretly conferred with the Russian ambassador about undermining US sanctions and you might think it’s okay that he lied about it to the FBI.  You might say that’s all okay, that’s just what you need to do to win.  But I don’t think it’s okay, I think its immoral, I think it’s unethical, unpatriotic, and yes, I think its corrupt, and evidence of collusion.  Now I have always said, that whether this amounts to conspiracy was another matter.  Whether the Special Counsel could prove beyond a reasonable doubt of that crime would be up to the Special Counsel, and I would accept his decision, and I do.  He is a good and honorable man and a good prosecutor.  But I do not think that conduct criminal or not is okay.  And the day we do think that is okay is the day we look back and say America has lost its way.

And I will tell you one more thing that is apropos of the hearing today.  I don’t think it’s okay that during a presidential campaign Mr. Trump sought the Kremlin’s help to consummate a real estate deal in Moscow that would make him a fortune.  According to Special Counsel hundreds of millions of dollars.  I don’t think it’s okay to lie and conceal it from the public.  I don’t think it’s okay to advocate a new and more favorable policy to the Russians even as he was seeking the Kremlin’s help to make money.  I don’t think it’s okay to instruct his attorney to lie to our committee.  There is a different word for that than collusion, and its called compromise.  And   that is the subject of our hearing today.”

Relevance to Peace Economics:

The corruption of the empire society plutocracy has become obvious to most in America.  Reagan with his military buildup, making the rich almost tax free, union busting, and killing the equal time provision of the media, has let the oligarchy gain control over America at the expense of the middle class which has been falling steadily further behind since that 1980 election mistake.  The suggested reading below “Rankism and Dignity” offers a different vision of inclusion instead of the Trump politics of exclusion and conning people with 9179 documented lies in Trump presidency (Washington Post).

Rankism and the Dignity Society (second most popular on academia last month):

https://www.academia.edu/11020728/RANKISM_and_DIGNITY_Robert_Fuller_Concept_1_p._2006

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, March 30), “You Might Think It’s Okay” Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/You-Might-Think-It’s-Okay,2019179302.aspx

 

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double that of last year 38 in 6 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Milwaukee Socials Not Kings

The Democratic Party has chosen the city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to hold their 2020 presidential nomination convention.  This helps sharpen the contrast with the plutocratic Republican Cult Party of President (King wannabe) Trump.  The personality cult of Trump has chosen the messaging of labeling the Democrats the party of Socialists.  No city in America has a prouder Socialist tradition than Milwaukee, since they have had a Socialist mayor for 73 of its 174 years since the initial 1846 incorporation.  The last socialist mayor of any major American city was Frank Zeidler who served as Milwaukee mayor from 1948 to 1960.  Born in September 1912 he died two months short of his 94th birthday in July 2006.  One day in about 1994 or 1995, I spoke to two international groups in Milwaukee about Peace Economics, in the morning to the World Federalists and in the evening to the Waukesha suburban group of the United Nations Association.  Frank Zeidler was present in attendance at both presentations.  He was so impressed with my first presentation to the World Federalists about 10am in downtown Milwaukee that he showed up to hear me again about 7pm in Waukesha about 15 miles away.  The last I saw of him, he looked very thoughtful taking it all in, and I was extremely honored but respected his privacy.  I have had similar reactions from many groups and individuals who have heard me, but like the parable of the seeds in the bible, many hear a new message, a seed, and forget or are choked off by weeds or fall on rocks (seeds) or are trapped in status quo thinking (message), et cetera.  Debbie Metke leader of that group in Milwaukee remains a key fan of mine. Debbie knew me from my five presentations at the five last Fall national meetings of the World Federalist Association of the United States 1998-2002 in Pittsburg, Toronto, Dallas, Saint Louis, and Denver.  I gradually lost interest in that group as it changed their name to Citizens for Global Solutions (CGS).  I last attended the CGS Santa Fe conference November 4-6, 2005.  I stopped being a local CGS group leader in Madison, Wisconsin after a last January 2006 national meeting by conference phone call held in my condo attended by Lee and Tom Brown.

Socialist Confusions

Milwaukee was settled with German 1848ers many arriving from 1846 to 1854.  The Wisconsin Historical Society says “Between 1846 and 1854, a wave of German immigrants arrived, bringing with them expert industrial skills, refined culture, liberal politics, and Catholicism. Milwaukee soon became a center of foundry, machinery, and metal-working industries, as well as a center for brewing and grain trading.”  1848ers were disaffected Germans who were inspired by Karl Marx’s “Communist Manifesto” but felt they no longer “fit in” in Germany so left for America.  But while true communists believe in state ownership of the means of production, democratic socialists believe in freedom and democracy, preferring to use laws and rules to modify and supplement capitalism and avoid monopolistic practices and abuses.  Oddly enough the promise of affordable drugs, health care, and education for all, taxing the wealthy, and living wages are very popular among the people, but not so the word socialism.  Many European conservatives with their social compacts would be labelled socialists in America.  Why is being social good but being socialist bad?  Why is community a good thing and communism a bad thing?  Why in the eighties was Nicaragua communist and Costa Rica a democracy, even though both had elected leaders, 65% private sector economies, and 35% state owned major industries like banking and petroleum?  Often labeling and guilt by association is the major difference.  Often those who challenge ruling elites and foreign ownership are demonized regardless of the merit of their positions.

Trump as Kingly Cult

The Republican Party has long had an interest in big business and strong authoritarian-like leadership.  The original Tories in revolutionary days wanted to stay with rule by the king of England.  Oddly enough the Republican Party looks like the result of the saying “be careful about your enemies for soon you will be like them”.  As militaristic Cold War America gradually became more like the totalitarian socialists of the Russia dominated Soviet Union, some of these tendencies gradually became more aggravated.  Trump became the cult leader of conservatives and took over the Republican Party and then the nation as he was elected, by the slave era electoral college and with a base of former slave states, despite receiving 3 million less votes.  Trump is an internet media king with his 24 million Twitter followers and 16 million Facebook followers.  He has used this independent media position along with the effective state TV of fox news to act like a dictator, like many of his most admired world leaders like Putin of Russia (his main mentor), Duarte of the Philippines, and Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) of Saudi Arabia and Kim of Korea.  He has used 9000 tabulated lies so far and intimidation tactics extensively to hold his own party in line and limit the effectiveness of his enemies. Enemies include the truth, media, courts, and the traditional national security state in the state department, FBI, and the CIA.  Kings and dictators usually use his kind of tactics, making the GOP the party of authoritarianism.  His racial appeals against immigrants and various “others” are the dream come true of white nationalists.  Lawrence Britt (2003) “14 Characteristics of Fascism” apply to much of Trump’s behavior.  Empire levels of militarism for 74 years has led to the Trump extremism.  America resisted these militaristic economy tendencies for a generation or two, then Reagan sowed the seeds of income inequality, media extremism, and militarism leading to the hollowed out middle class of today’s America.  Scapegoating then built up the Trump cult.

Nature of Militaristic Empire Society Leads to this situation:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, March 26), “Milwaukee Socials Not Kings”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Milwaukee-Socials-Not-Kings,2019179143.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (pace double that of last year) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Systemic Review of Releases

I have kept detailed daily accounts of viewings of my expertclick.com press releases in the five years since February 1, 2014.  How often those daily totals include the ten most recent press releases in a row tells a revealing story.  In the two years before being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2016, ten in a row was rare, 13% out of 731 days.  Then the nomination came in early 2016, and in the 209 days from that first look at my 50 in a row expertclick.com press releases at 9am Norway time on 2-2-16, the rate of ten in a rows soared to 48%.   That period ended about a week before the next announcement on the first Friday in October at 11am Norway time.  Then the second Nobel year of study for the 2017 nomination runs from September 29, 2016 to December 23, 2017 with an 89% response rate of ten in a rows per day.  That is 401 days out of 450, with 11 consecutive periods of up to 75 or 110 days in a row and 10 erratic short periods in between the long streaks.  Then there is a pause period of lighter observation of 64 days with only 25 ten in a row days (39%), before beginning the 2018 year of serious observation with 223 days of ten in a row days out of 224 days, a 99.55% rate from 2-25-18 to 9-26-18.  This period also includes 37 of the 46 “long looks” of about 24 in a row in one day, up to that point.  There is the pause period, 9-27-18 to 10-22-18 of 26 days with 9 ten in rows, 31%.  Finally, there is the start of the new year 2019 with the 10-23-18 to 2-25-19 of 126 straight days (100%) with ten in a row and another 30 “long looks” of about 24 in a row, some with a second streak not consecutive with the first ten in a row.  This is a much shorter pause and many more long looks than the start of the very strong interest in the 2018 year.  These patterns are uniquely suggestive of the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s growing interest in my inventions of military economics, empire economics, and climate war cycles explanations.  The 76 Google academia interests were mainly 2014 (9), 2015 (23), and 2016 (42), then tapered off.

Climate Development

Krakatoa erupts somewhat on schedule on December 23, 2018.  The two largest volcanic eruptions in the last 200 years, Krakatoa of Sumatra in 1883 and Pinatubo of the Philippines in 1991 were a perfect double 54-year cycle of 108 years apart.  They were both in the South China Sea islands in the oceanic phase of the 108-year cycle, which consists of two 54-year cycles back to back, one with the oceanic Southern hemisphere hotter and the other with the land-like Northern hemisphere hotter.  Miami hurricanes (1935, 1965, 1992, 2017) and civil rights riots (Watts 1965 and Rodney King 1992) and San Francisco earthquakes (1906, 1989, 2014) have shown that some things happen on the half cycle of 27 years as well.  So, Krakatoa comes back at 108 plus 27 years, 27 years after the Pinatubo eruption of 1991.  All three eruptions happen after multi decade global heat waves.  They are in the Western Pacific, where great storms gain energy across the largest ocean.  Storms grow in the equatorial wind belt going due West from off the coast of Latin America, the greatest planetary solar gain over oceans.

Legal Suggestion

It’s time to add journalists to the list of victims of hate crime attacks.  False screams of fire in a crowded theatre are legally actionable.  Provoking the murderers of blacks by white nationalists can bankrupt hate groups that are deemed liable.  The leader of a nation should not be allowed to incite his followers against journalists with false repeated allegations of fake news and that the media are enemies of the people.  Hate speech needs to have consequences.  We have too long suffered attacks on journalists at rallies, murders of journalists in Paris and Maryland, and the tolerance of the murder of a Washington Post journalist by Saudi Arabia.

More detail about this main topic:

https://www.academia.edu/37572795/Following_Nobel_Norwegians_Detail_10-8-18_release_4_pages

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, February 26), “Systemic Review of Releases”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Systemic-Review-of-Releases,2019178068.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (pace well ahead of last year) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Great Pivot Climate History

Mackinder’s 1904 concept of the “Great Pivot of History” deepens when you add climate change to the big picture.  The Mediterranean world and probably the whole world have undergone several great shifts of temperature in the last 3200 years or even longer.  Many great civilizations have risen and fallen in accordance with these great temperature changes.  The geography of the “Great Pivot” has played a role in this process.  When you look at a map of the world, massive mountain ranges separate China and India from the great plains of the “Great Pivot” region of North Central and North West Asia.  The “Great Pivot” area is essentially the region of Asian Russia from the thin straight North South strand of the Ural Mountains that divide Europe from Asia to this huge uneven bank of Asian mountains and plateaus running through East Siberia into Tibet and the Himalayas.  This great wall separates heavily populated South Asia from less populated North Asia and Siberia.  This “Great Pivot” great plains area is a low land area between populated Europe and populated Asia.

Climate Changes Ancient Civilizations

Western civilization starts with Mesopotamia followed by Egypt as the Earth hits a low temperature point around 1200 BC.  This first cooling gives Egypt a temperature advantage over Mesopotamia as the ideal temperature zone of humankind moves South.   The next great warming takes 1400 years to reach a peak in 200 AD.  During this time first Greece and later Rome emerge.  Athens, Greece is 8 degrees North of Cairo, Egypt.  Greek civilization becomes dominant from 800 BC to 600 BC.  Rome, Italy is 4 degrees further North from Athens.  So as the warming continues, first Greece reaches its ideal temperature zone then Rome.  Rome became a republic in defeated Carthage in 146 BC becoming an empire in 27 AD until its peak in 117 AD.  Suddenly the Earth cools after 200 AD reaching a coldest year about 450 AD and the collapse of the Western Roman Empire is 476 AD.  This is probably due to the temperature change forcing a domino effect on many barbaric tribes starting out of the “Great Pivot” and eventually (several tribes later) seeking warmer grounds like the Mediterranean Sea area occupied by the Roman Empire.  If your look at a topographic map of Eurasia, the mountains wall off the Far East at an angle and drive populations retreating from the cold towards the Southwest area around Rome.  Except for the brief period of Alexander the Great (336-323 BC), Greece faces somewhat developed cultures to its East and is limited in its expansion possibilities.  Rome has more ideal positioning in the center of the Mediterranean world and expands to fill that void and become a great and lasting empire, thanks to its geography.  Rome is centrally located in the Italian peninsula with weak rivals, unlike the Sparta Athens rivalry in Greece, hence it more easily moves to dominate its neighborhood in the early years, then wins the Punic wars with Carthage to become an empire.

European Pre-Modern Age

The next great temperature rise peaks around 1000 AD bringing with it the age of the Vikings dominating coastal Northern Europe, as North Europe reaches an ideal temperature zone.  The Mongol leader Genghis Khan established the greatest contiguous empire ever by taking over North Eurasia just after his death in 1227 AD, some 200 years after this warming peak.  Even Greenland was colonized by Vikings with the warming.  The next cooling made Greenland largely uninhabitable and the settlers were last heard from in 1406 AD.  That cooling bottoms out about 1580 AD as the ideal temperature zone moves South leading to the world explorations of the Southern European nations of Spain and Portugal.  When the current rise began, the ideal temperature zone moved North again.  After three decades of great corn growing weather in Britain, around 1750 AD, the leisure that resulted from the agricultural abundance lead to the industrial revolution, as trains brought coal and steel production together.  This was about three quarters of the way up to the next upper bound of the 3000-year Mediterranean area temperature cycle of a 16-degree Fahrenheit swing from top to bottom four times from 1200 BC to 1580 AD. This was reported by the Australian journalist James Burke in a Maryland Public TV “Global Warming” two hour broadcast in 1986.  This sets the stage for the modern era of the Greenhouse Effect of carbon dioxide warming, which could exceed the expected 4-degree Fahrenheit warming above the Lancashire England 1750 AD temperature.  We are now within one or two degrees of the upper bound of this long cycle, with no way of knowing whether we will exceed this range this time.  Will the new warming make places like Russia, Canada, and Scandinavia the next group of dominant countries?  Only time will tell.  The scale of current events are epic, on the scale of the comings and goings of ice ages.

To read a “three times as long” detailed account of these climate changes:

https://www.academia.edu/4485586/CIVILIZATION_Changes_with_Climate_4p._RE_1999

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, February 19), “Great Pivot Climate History”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Great-Pivot-Climate-History,2019177785.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (pace well ahead of last year) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Idle Money Devil’s Workshop

We have this expression that “idle hands are the devil’s workshop.”  Change the word from “hands” to “money” and this principle can be used to explain the disaster area America has become since 1980.  Reagan freed the rich from high taxes while unleashing an all-out war on the unions that gave America its middle class.  The resulting excess “idle money” began the rich people’s war on the middle class.  Unlimited riches gave rise to unlimited campaign donations and right-wing institutes.  Four decades later, the 99% are increasingly being left behind by the top 1%, or more accurately, the top 0.1%.  Corruption of the American system has grown everywhere during these four decades of the rich not sharing America’s productivity growth with the rest of us 99%.  We have developed a working-class austerity “mean” mentality that supports this ongoing plundering of the middle class by the rich by using resentments to divide us into warring tribes.

Existing Structure

The prevalent divide of the bourgeoisie and the proletariat tends to favor a perspective of the top 20% versus the bottom 80%.  This is very misleading.  By focusing on the top 20% it can be shown certain things, like the fact that a college degree leads to significantly higher income.  That this top 20% can be shown to have a good lifestyle while 40% of America lives from paycheck to paycheck completely hides the fact that the top 1% has more than quadrupled their incomes relative to the rest of us 99% the last forty years.  The professional class is fooling themselves that they have done well, while even they have shown little improvement over forty years ago.  This new pattern, so drastically different than the forty years prior to 1980, is so entrenched that classic divide and conquer strategies like pitting the millennials against the boomers make sense to the millennials who have never known another America like the one the boomers grew up in.  They fail to see that the boomers did not take advantage of them, the rich did, the top 1% and the deluded 12% that think they are in the top 1% and the next 23% that expect to be 1% someday, engineered the election of Ronald Reagan to once and for all time put the rich back in charge by lowering the top tax rate from 70% to 28% and the capital gains tax rate lowered as well. Together with a union busting strategy and heel dragging on raising the minimum wage.  Further the working class has been led to believe that immigrants and affirmative action recipients are taking their jobs, when the rich and the lost growth from militarization of society into an empire has led to their disadvantage.  The automation excuse ignores the Germany example of how advanced manufacturing can replace automated jobs with new manufacturing and engineering jobs.  Just as manufacturing and productivity shrink with every military buildup, the overseas placement of jobs proceeds with the cost-free aid of military protection and financial investment enrichment of the rich 1% class.  The Wall Street Journal showed that all New York Stock Exchange stocks from 2000-2010 added 3 million jobs overseas, reducing 900,000 at home.  People are overpaid one third in weapons industries, whether they are blue collar, while collar or engineers, and top financial jobs helping the rich exploit the rest of us are extremely lucrative topping many best jobs lists.  The financial industry has grown to ten times its share of national profits since 1980.  Meanwhile, the auto industry and manufacturing in general have faded away, as the richest city in American moved from Detroit (autos) in 1960 to Boston (MIT top military research institution) in the Cold War eighties to the Washington DC area today where seven of the ten richest counties in America are now located.  Wall Street and the Pentagon enable our government to exploit the rest of us in the name of rising inequality going straight to the top 1%.  The red states resist, but they are shooting at the wrong enemy, unwittingly voting in the exploiters.  Ironically, the college degree and up educated are trying to put America back into balance, unfortunately with piecemeal improvements rather than a return to taxing the rich as in our “Glory Days” before 1980.

Billionaires

Always the rich and famous have been with us and influential.  Perhaps never more since the Gilded Age of the late Nineteenth century have the rich been in control of America.  Long have the rich been kingmakers.  Since the Citizens United decision of the Supreme Court in 2010 there has been a flood gate of big money into politics for both parties, a trend that started around 1980.  Ralph Nader wrote “Only the Super Rich Can Save Us” noting this trend favored the rich and corporate interests, but enough rich people existed that valued democracy enough to try and right the balance.  Lately, the internet and small donor only fundraising by candidates have been able to fight back with an unusual number of underfunded candidates beginning to win this way.  On the left, George Soros provides money, Warren Buffett has suggested the 30% minimum tax on the rich, and Jeff Bezos of Amazon has bought the Washington Post, and Tom Steyer has waged an aggressive impeachment campaign.  On the right, the Mercer family has funded Trump, while the Koch brothers have founded the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) and promoted right wing academic organizations on campuses across the country.  Sheldon Adelman is another major conservative donor.  The Bradley Foundation leads in right wing funding even over better-known Heritage and CATO.  Many of these right-wing institutions started in the seventies making the post-1980 changes possible.

Nobel Peace Prize

The economy draining properties of military spending, proven by the Reuschlein science, are perfect for filling the need to reduce armies, as called for in Nobel’s will.  As such several people have nominated me for the Nobel Peace Prize starting with 2016 and each subsequent year.  This is your chance to join them in the history that will be confidential for 50 years.  Many qualify including social science professors and associate professors, including law, history, and theology and others.  Also, members of national governments and legislatures and many others can nominate.  Deadline this year is midnight GMT time on 1-31-19, 5pm Chicago time.  But act immediately because they must reply to your application first before you can submit it.

Social Science Associate Professors May Nominate Reuschlein for Nobel Peace Prize:

https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/Nomination/Nominator-application-form

List of Empire Economics Special Findings by Reuschlein:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, January 29), “Idle Money Devil’s Workshop”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Idle-Money-Devil’s-Workshop,2019167038.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (pace well ahead of last year) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Need to Know About Empire

While conventional history is biographical and anecdotal and resists the concept of theory, Peace Economics finds that theory works very well, thank you.  Empire Economics is a new science that incorporates the new findings of Peace Economics.  Here are some of the key concepts of this new framework I consider a backbone to the jellyfish of conventional history, a backbone to the jellyfish of the social sciences.

Opportunity Cost

Military spending is like capital investment turned into political investment instead.  Resources used in military spending are like those used in capital investment or manufacturing or construction except that they are focused on political goals rather than economic goals.  Diverting those resources to a non-economic purpose represents an “opportunity cost” to society that permanently reduces the economic growth of that society by the amount of those resources used.  These economically misdirected research and capital resources may significantly enhance military capability and effectiveness instead of enhancing civilian economy capability and effectiveness.  This trade-off is the “opportunity cost” of military spending.  This is the principal reason empires eventually fall behind another emerging nation and lose their premier empire status.  The economic loss of military spending is immediately apparent in each year, it is measurable and direct in its impact year after year after year.  Alleged research benefits of military spending are minuscule compared to the lost capital investment growth.  Foreign military sales are also dwarfed by the large military expenditures and often subsidized by military foreign aid.

History Explained

Because of the opportunity cost principal, empire economies are gradually eroded until another low military spending emerging nation overtakes them economically.  Since usually the stronger economy wins wars, the changing economic fortunes eventually lead to adverse political consequences, like losing a hegemonic war.  This explains why the slogan “peace through strength” is terribly misleading.  The illusion is that more spent on the military makes a nation stronger, but the reality is that that additional spending weakens the nation year after year eroding the economic standing of the nation and exposing the nation to an increasing over time chance of losing a hegemonic war to one of the upstart nations.

Minds That Hate

The Beatles song “Revolution” says we all want to change the world, but if you talk about destruction lead by people with minds that hate, leave me out.  The framework of minds that hate becomes especially consequential in that empires create or react to enemies.  When a whole people view another people as their enemies, this is a corrosion of the mind into a mind that hates.  Killing another person is the worst that you can do to them.  When killing is the main occupation of troops, this has a corrosive effect on the persons who are the troops.  Even in World War II 70% of the troops never fired a shot in anger at another person.  It is extremely difficult to get one person to kill another.  This natural tendency was overcome in the fifties in America with training techniques that made it easier for troops to kill.  Murder rates rose after Vietnam in America and based on seventies eighties and nineties data, murder rates among America, Germany, Italy, and Japan were almost perfectly correlated with military spending as a percentage of the economy.  With the end of the Cold War both military spending and murder and crime rates dropped in the leading Western countries.  But they dropped further and faster in Europe as Europe demilitarized more that America did.

Social Decay Explained

In recent decades, the G7 countries have shown varying levels of social decay in proportion to the economic militarization of the country.  This association with military spending is so strong suggesting that the economic decay produced by military spending spills over into the social decay in statistics like mental health, infant mortality, diabetes, teenage births, prisoners, murders, and social mobility and income inequality.  The connection seems so direct that alternative explanations of the decay of empires such as moral decay leading to economic decay are clearly backwards, as causality shows the logic is the other way around.  The military spending leads to economic decay in year by year analysis, whereas morality is a long-term issue.  So, if morality or taking the money supply off the gold standard were causes rather than effects, how would that explain the annual variation of military spending (net of deficits) effect on the economy?  Clearly the military economic effect is primary.  Another issue that arises is the idea that empires will eventually fall over a long enough time period.  This assumes a kind of complacency comes over a population that leads to the fall, somewhat like the morality theory earlier discussed.  Again, this theory is defied by the reaction to military spending changes shown by the economy.  Both in the sixties and nineties in America, lowering military spending lead to great economic booms, hardly a sign of the so-called inevitable decline theory.  Military spending changes do change the economic and social structure of the country, suggesting that long term decline is not inevitable, but in fact is caused by the level of military spending.

Paramount Politics

Politically, leaders are afraid to be shown to be cowards.  This often translates into being in favor of the latest war suggestion regardless of the merits.  Oddly enough, this suggests that warlike leaders may be cowards, because it takes a great deal of political courage to oppose war.  But people assume the opposite, perhaps because of the sacrifice required in wartime seeming so noble and courageous, at least at the level of the individual soldier.  This combined with the reverse economics that those who command the most military resources are empowered the most in the political system, as huge military contracts are easily steered into the political districts of presidents and congressional leaders, and especially the committee members of the key military spending authorization and disbursement committees.  This runs completely counter to the national drain on the economy of military spending, so much and so visibly so that many come to believe that military spending can stimulate economic growth.  This belief does not look at the complete picture as manufacturing states lose jobs and income during military buildups.  The victim states and regions tend to blame themselves rather than recognize how the military scam works at the political level, rewarding those that seize the military resources away from the life-giving civilian economy.

Climate Change

Paradoxically, the oil loaded military aircraft (one third of all jet fuel is used by the military) and vehicles (M1 tank gets one mile for two gallons) people at the pentagon are concerned about how climate change is destabilizing the world and creating many warlike opportunities for local leaders to exploit droughts and other natural occurrences of so-called global weirding.  This has led to the pentagon scrutinizing my climate work and the CIA scrutinizing my military spending work.  As so often seems to be the case, the micro dominates the macro, as people are so overwhelmed by the big picture that they concentrate on the little picture.  This is a good tactic in passing controversial budgets.  Give in on a small issue and people will vote the huge budget through without too much scrutiny.  Just look at the hoopla over $5 billion dollars for a wall or other barrier in America.  Meanwhile, 800,000 federal employees will forgo about $2.5 billion in paychecks on January 12, 2019, as the issue drags on.  $5 billion could give universal pre-K education to all children in America.  Trade war, shutdown, and military could fuel recession.

Of 78 papers on my academia website, “Stages of Empire” is the 6th most popular:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, January 8), “Need to Know About Empire”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Need-to-Know-About-Empire,2019166287.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, A Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Military Place in Society

While more and more professions have come into disrepute in recent decades in America, the military remains in high standing among the people.  Studying a 2013 Gallup poll of the professions on honesty and ethics gives rise to many insights on militarism and empire.

Overall

Nurses top the list at 82%, followed by a four-way tie for Pharmacists, Teachers, Doctors, and Military officers at 70% or 69%.  Makes sense that nurses are the main contact point when one is seriously ill and can offer confidences even more than doctors.  Pharmacists are important when so much of medicine these days is in the form of a pill.  Education is the secret to success.  But military officers?  Why do we glorify those who lead us into the life and death meat grinder of combat?  Certainly, life and death decisions are foremost among almost all these top tier professions.  Almost all US presidents come from either political or military careers.  Military is not just worshipped in empire, but seemingly in all nationalism.  But empire makes militarism and the military much more a part of everyday existence and importance.

The next tier of trust are Police 54% and Judges 45% or Clergy 47% and Daycare 46%.   Here is the domestic equivalent of the military officers, the front-line police and those who run our courts, the judges.  Their decisions are life and death sometimes but less vital most of the time.  Then there are the Clergy and Daycare workers who educate on ethics and take care of our vulnerable populations, the nurturers.

The third tier are mixed trustworthy people.  Nursing Home 32% and Auto Mechanics 29% are somewhat trusted, but the economics people less so include Bankers 27% and Business 22%, followed by the public figures in Local Office 23%, Reporters 21%, and Lawyers 20% all visible but flawed people we know.

The fourth and lowest tier include State Offices 14%, Advertisers 14%, Car Salesmen 9%, Congress People 8% and Lobbyists 6%.  We take everything these people say with skepticism.   Note that those pushing loaded points of view are treated with the most skepticism.  Some of these people do a lot of talking about things they know little about or in contradiction with everyday people’s hard-earned experience.

Partisan Differences

The partisan divide shows up strongest in five professions.  The Police (68-44), Clergy (63-40), and Military (78-64) are trusted much more by Republicans.  Judges (51-41) and Reporters (25-15) are trusted much more by Democrats. Perhaps Republicans are more accepting of authority (and authoritarians) while Democrats are more questioning of authority.  But note that both have a high level of trust of the Military and a low level of trust of Reporters.  Also note that the Police and Clergy are underwater with Democrats and Judges are underwater with Republicans.  Note that the highest levels of respect for Republicans are a virtual four-way tie for Nurses 81%, Pharmacists 80%, Doctors 78% and Military 78%, a kind of trust for high authority figures.   For Democrats only two are this high, Nurses 85% and Teachers 76%, a kind of trust for the more personal authority figures.  Pharmacist (80%-69%) and Doctors (78%-69%) are the next level of partisan differences, with Republicans trusting them about ten percent more than Democrats.

Military Place in Society

Polling shows the military has an unusually high level of trust usually reserved for only the most respected people in society.  Why would that be?  People respect those who risk their lives for the sake of the rest of us, like the military, police, and firefighters.  People also have high respect for health workers and educators of our children.  The rest of us, not so much.  People have low trust for those working for the general public who are either often in error or seeking an advantage or in an advocacy role of some kind.  Jobs like bankers and businesspeople or lawyers, officeholders, reporters, and lobbyists are low trust people probably because their roles are too broad to possibly be right all the time.  Greed and fame seeking also seem problematic for this group, so they are viewed in a harsher light.  Note that the politicians and pundits who send people off to war are held in lower repute, but the people who fight our wars are held in high esteem.  Because they are willing to risk it all, we hold them in a high place of honor, and are less likely to question what they do on behalf of all of us.

Peace Economics

To politically protest wars and the military seems unseemly to many, seems to question the valor and patriotism of those willing to make the “ultimate sacrifice.” Euphemisms abound in war and around the military.  Many of the highest paid professions revolve around death, such as mortician, medicine, pharmacy, and life insurance sales.  I once had a sign made that said, “Military Robs Midwest Jobs” and was questioned if I was anti-military by the office supply worker that made it for me.  To question the motives of those in the military is unseemly.

Funding for even unpopular wars is sold as “supporting the troops,” taking advantage of the popularity of the individual soldiers.  We honor the warrior even more than the war.  Even the Olympics is presented to us as a nationalistic event, with athletes parading into the stadium wearing national colors.  Even the United Nations is more of an association of governments than a meeting together of the world’s peoples.  Delegates are appointed by each nation, not elected by the peoples of the world.  In most politics worldwide, nationalism seems more powerful than socialism which in turn seems more powerful than environmentalism.  Nationalism is the one religion one does not have the freedom to not join in.  That makes nationalism stronger than religion, seemingly exempt from the concept of freedom of religion.  Religions no longer believe in human sacrifice, yet nationalism continues that tradition with the military and wars.  Religion remains a major underlying cause of wars.  In a church grotto not far from where I live, one arch has stones spelling out patriotism on it and the other arch spells out the word Christianity. 

Pairs of Contrasting Words That Define Empire Society:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay 6p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, December 28), “Military Place in Society”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Military-Place-in-Society,2018165973.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Looks) Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Technology Loser: Military

Many believe that military spending is good for the economy.  Nothing could be further from the truth.   Comprehensive, thorough, and painstaking research and modeling over the decades shows the general wisdom to be very false.

General Economic Wisdom

Manufacturing with technology growth is a better path to prosperity than resource-based economies.  Military spending absorbs but only partially contributes to market-based and market-tested technology growth.  Military spending is power oriented rather than achievement oriented.  In fact, resource-based economies tend to be militaristic, mercantilist, and corrupt with limited growth potential.  Two good examples of this today are Russia and Saudi Arabia, both of whom have leaders willing to kill journalists and political opponents to keep their power, and feel free to use their military power to achieve national objectives.  High levels of military spending correlate well with corruption and crime, as even America has killed muckraking journalists Michael Hastings and Gary Webb, who dared to take on the military industrial complex directly.  Militaristic America has a very low rating compared to other G7 countries by Reporters Without Borders, especially on so-called national security issues.

Displaces Economic Manufacturing

Opportunity Cost theory explains why diverting key resources away from the civilian based production cycle leads economies into stagnation.  Resources devoted to power politics are diverted from the normal focus on economic growth of the general civilian economy.  What you aim at is what you get.  The double negative of the destruction of your enemy is still a negative result, not a positive result, a destruction, not a construction.  The military achieves political ends, not economic ends.  Locally it is a good substitute for manufacturing, bringing money into a community, but the source of that money comes from other communities competing in the economic market place, sinking or swimming as products are either improved or become obsolete.  Manufacturing, construction, agriculture, and mining all suffer paying the taxes to support the military sector.  And these vital economic industries also suffer competition for talent with the overpaid engineers, managers, and workers in the military industry.  The whole economy suffers loss of capital investment and manufacturing productivity growth rate when there is a military buildup and prospers when there is a military builddown.  This constant negative of the military economy is easily offset with deficit spending, especially in wartime.  In recent decades in America, ever since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have created these deficits by pairing military buildups with tax cuts.  This has made the national debt grow dramatically over this period.

Models Confirm the Story

Modeling of the military economy shows essentially no economic growth results from that part of the economy.  Key resources like capital investment, scientists, and engineers all lead to economic growth in the normal economy, unless they are diverted to the military economy where their growth potential is stymied by the constraints of the military mission.  Manufacturing is turned into a service in the military sector losing almost all its economic growth potential in exchange for devotion to the national defense.  The modeling and studies clearly show the military changes drive changes in the economy.  This shows up in both international comparisons and regional comparisons within a country.  This leads to an accurate new model of long-term economic growth in the United States and Germany.  Thirteen correlations document how this applies to politics and the social decay of empires, even climate change.  Those thirteen correlations include eight that are 99% of a perfect fit and average 97% for all thirteen.  Combined, all these findings lead to new scientifically accurate models of economics and climate change.

Dead End Technology

Technology designed under conditions of secrecy and for too military specific purposes loses two thirds of its usefulness for the civilian economy.  Often such technology is driven to suit the political purposes of congressional committee chairs, party leaders, and the president.  These power figures usually serve the interests of their home state military industries and bases.  The purposes of power usually triumph over true merit-based achievement.  Having the best proposals for new weapons systems is less important than having the political clout of a home state’s congressional and presidential delegation.  Only ten percent of the military budget is for research, ninety percent is for hardware, supplies, troops, and the pentagon civilian bureaucracy.  Thus 90% of the military budget acts as inert economic filler for local economies, while most of the research component 10% rarely produces duo use products to use in the civilian economy.

Two Pages showing the 17 major claims of the Peace Economics research:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, December 21), “Technology Loser:  Military”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Technology-Loser:-Military,2018165803.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Born in the United States

Listening to various music on the plane back to America from Norway, Bruce Springsteen’s album “Born in the USA” inspired this Peace Economics approach to these song titles.

Working on the Highway

This song reminds me of the story of American on the rise.  United by the Civil War and ever expanding Westward, America started the twentieth century a rising industrial power with the largest economy in the world.  Frederick Taylor, inventing industrial engineering in the age of railroads in the 1890s, found out that productivity for laying railroads peaked at 64 degrees Fahrenheit.  As temperatures increase above that level proportionately less work gets done.  This shows how capital accumulation and the economy improves slightly with slightly lower temperatures or slows down slightly with slightly higher temperatures, as most capital, economic progress, and infrastructure starts with construction.  A century of data confirms these patterns.

 

Glory Days

This song about those that peaked in high school reminds me about America’s fixation with World War II (WWII) and the so-called Greatest Generation.  Yes, the Marshall Plan was infinitely better than the 1919 Versailles treaty which gave us WWII.  But even the Marshall Plan only supplied 10% of the internally generated capital in Japan and Germany in the 1950s.  Important startup capital, but low military spending was the real secret ingredient that gave both Japan and Germany average economic growth rates over 8% for the decade of the fifties.  They both thank America for democracy, especially the more modern parliamentary type, including Japan’s antiwar constitution and Germany’s equal representation with owners for workers on corporate boards.  Thanks America.  The military burdens of empire have held America back ever since WWII, hence the fixation with those glory days of the so-called good war.  Most wars ever since have ended badly.

Born in the USA

America’s 329 million includes 47 million immigrants, largely thanks to the 1965 Immigration Act. That’s 14.4% of the US population.  In the age of empire after 1945, immigrants have bolstered the economy with one Newsweek article suggesting that immigrants make about 2.5 times as much as other Americans.  This “all roads lead to Rome” keeps the American economy a world leader, despite the economic erosion of the highest military budget in the world.  Many physicians, dentists, lawyers, engineers, scientists, accountants, and rich businesspeople are among those immigrants often educated in the US and seeking to stay.  Meanwhile ever since the number one nuclear weapons contractor spokesperson Ronald Reagan tricked people into cutting the top tax rate 60% while only helping the middle class 15% in the name of a 25% tax cut, income inequality has quadrupled top 1% incomes while the 99% have had their incomes frozen for forty years.  Yes, that stagnancy even includes the rest of the top 5%.  And the real winners are the top 0.1%.  Only about 25% of immigrants are the poor South of the border type, and about 80% are legal.

I’m Going Down

Peace Economics shows strong international comparison correlations with high crime, corruption, and low health for the higher militarized economies.  This is the essence of the social decline of empire that accompanies the slow steady economic decline.  Even today political crisis pervades the three most militarized countries in NATO, America, Britain, and France.  Trump has disrupted America, Brexit befuddles Britain, and Macron’s elite policies with a blind spot to income inequality in France have created turmoil in all three countries.  All three have faced unwanted Russian interventions.  Meanwhile the most successful economy in Europe, Germany, has had up until now the lowest percentage of military spending at a mere 1%.  That 1% military has been the secret of success for pre-WWII America and post-WWII Japan.  The last three decades Japan has grown little while Japanese capital has brought up the whole Far East neighborhood, starting with the Four Tigers of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea and proceeding after that with China.  The Fujian province next to Hong Kong is where the high growth started in China in the 1980s.  Hong Kong was taking over China economically before China took over Hong Kong politically in 1999.  And low military Italy overtook Britain in 1987 in per capita income, the same year Japan passed America in per capita economy.  Then Britain found North Sea Oil, and Japan peaked in 1994 at 40% higher per capita income over America and has slumped to 25% higher in 2000 and continues to slump.

No Surrender

Americans famously used the Alamo “no surrender” policy to fend-off the Mexican army long enough to rally enough troops to defend Texas in 1845.  Much later, America adopted the unconditional surrender demand for fighting the tyrants of World War II.  Then the Republican Party took the idea too far, applying it in domestic politics, led by Newt Gingrich in 1994 as the first Republican Speaker of the House in forty years.  Extremism and the politics of personal destruction took hold after 46 years of the Cold War, ironically just after the Cold War ended.  But the excessive militarism of the long high military spending in peacetime years of the Cold War (1945-1991) had kind of baked into the cake the habits of empire.  So entwined was the nation in militarism that George H. W. Bush had to tempt a cash starved Iraq (drained by the Iran war) into trying to reclaim oil rich Kuwait as the 18th province separated from the rest of Iraq by the British in 1921.  He told his ambassador to Iraq to say the US didn’t care about border disputes after encouraging the Kuwaitis to slant drill underground for oil under the ground in Iraq.  Then he acted with outrage and rallied the UN to “free” Kuwait.  This saved the military from appearing irrelevant after the end of the Cold War, holding the Cold War defense budget cuts to 25% while Europe cut their forces 50%.  Empire was saved enough to be restored in the second Bush presidency after eight years of peace and prosperity.  Meanwhile, the second Democratic presidency after the Cold War was met with total noncooperation from the Republican Party and the Republican Party brought their Southern style politics North in 2010 to rebuke the first Black president.  Extremism was normalized, making Trump possible, in a new post-truth society of unlimited propaganda.  America had the equivalent of Caligula, the crazy emperor of Rome who lasted four years.

One Page Principles Summary of Peace Economics: https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p. 13

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, December 14), “Born in the United States”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Born-in-the-United-States,2018165532.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Demagoguery United States

President Trump continues to break all the modes of behavior of past presidents as he focuses on appealing to his base and allegedly fulfilling his promises.  He continues to lie more and more, six a day his first year (Washington Post) and 16 a day his second year (New York Times) and recently 24 a day in a recent campaign week (New York Times).  He claims to be winning all the time and attacks his enemies all the time.  He attacks everyone in sight one time or another, intimidating his own political party into submissive following, for fear of being primaried out of office by Trump allies, if they don’t go along with his lies and attacks.  He has got the Fox News network to go along except for Shepard Smith in the afternoon who fearlessly continues with reality instead of the latest Trump fantasy.  Sean Hannity seems to be his closest confidant.  How does he do it?  Unfortunately, it seems to be working as his approval, once in the thirties, is now in the forties.  Yet a powerful backlash is shaping up in the House, but he may well keep the Senate on his side.

Economic Claims

Lawyers know that if the facts are on your side, talk the facts; if the law is on your side, talk the law; if neither is on your side, pound the table and scream and shout a lot.  There’s a lot of the latter going on.  But just lying as if things are going your way is the simplest Trump tactic. He takes credit for the economic trend start by Obama after the unemployment rate stopped rising in 2010.  Since then the Obama unemployment rate was dropping almost twice as fast 2011-2015 until Trump took office.  That was mostly due to a drop in military spending after pulling out of Iraq in 2011.  But Obama made the mistake Bill Clinton made at the end, using a small military buildup to “help” the Democrat running in his last year, although it hurts the economy to increase military spending, but it can help locally in some states.  2000 and 2016 slowed down in job and economic growth and increasing in unemployment rate thanks to this mistaken thinking.  Obama prolonged the delay in recovery by tripling the troops in Afghanistan during the Great Recession 2008-2009 years, leading to a six month pause at peak unemployment levels from September 2009 to February 2010.  This meant average unemployment levels for the year grew from 2009 to 2010, helping the Tea Party Republican wave election of 2010.  Back to Trump.  The Trump military buildup of his first two years continued the slower 2016 recovery for two more years.  The tax cut was not enough to offset this military buildup, and the tariffs hurt farmers and autos, while the Federal Reserve interest rate uptick was scapegoated for much of the blame.  The claim that the unemployment rate was the lowest in thirty years is meaningless because the improvement is much less than the Obama recovery years.  And the stock market was, long before it happened, predicted to rebound from the uncertainty of the 2016 election year stall, so Trump falsely claimed credit for that.  This year 2018, the stock market is in more of a stall than a good year, so Trump is mum.

Caravan News

Shepherd Smith puts this in perspective by describing the results of the April Caravan.  Then that ended up with only 14 arrests, and Bill Marr says the 7000 strong has already faded to half that number still two months away from arrival (1000 miles at 20 miles a day is fifty days).  And the Mexicans are helping, asking the refugees to stay and become Mexicans.  Then the attempted bomb attack on leading Democrats and the killing of 11 Jewish people in a Synagogue by obviously inflamed Trump supporters dampens the mood of Republicans after the Kavanaugh bump.  The October surprise looks negative for Republicans.  And Trump’s claim that he is a nationalist seems to have backfired as a confirmation of white nationalism by the white supremacy movement.  If Trump is not a racist, funny how David Duke seems to consider him one of them.  The preferential treatment in favor of Southern states that voted for Trump like Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina can easily be contrasted with the shabby treatment of brown skinned Puerto Ricans in the face of their respective hurricanes.  Trump even broke up an immigration deal because he didn’t want people from s**thole countries.  He even once called the White House a s**thole place.  The caravan propaganda is directly related to the mail bomber and the Synagogue shooter.

Demagogues in Empire Theory

Demagoguery is not essential to empire theory, but more and more elitist behavior and idiosyncratic behavior is consistent with the notion that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.  Trump reminds one of the Roman emperor Caligula, given that derisive nickname that means “little boots” and considering that that crazy emperor lasted only four years.  A crazy president with “little hands” (Marco Rubio). Although he suggested on the campaign trail “no problem there” Stormy Daniels seems to disagree, as evidenced by a selection from the Jimmy Kimmel interview of Stormy Daniels.  We can only hope he lasts four years or less.  Trump appears narcissistic and so vane he is easily manipulated by tyrants with flattery, as in North Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.  He prefers autocrats (strongmen) over Democratic leaders as he has abdicated leadership of the free world to Angie Merkel.  He also seems to have trouble with powerful women leaders like Angie Merkel of Germany and Teresa May of Great Britain.  When the UN laughed at his claim of being a leading figure of American history, he later claimed they were laughing with him not at him.  When he makes fun of others he often seems to be guilty of those same flaws himself, a perfect mirror of projection.  While he never hesitates to criticize any of his critics, he is never critical of Putin, suggesting Putin does have something over him.  He has sold (or money laundered?) over 600 condos to Russians at an average cost of $250,000 each for a total of $150 million. The Saudis have stepped up business with Trump hotels as many have begun to shun the Trump name brand.  All this in fragrant violation of the constitutional prohibition of accepting emoluments from foreign nations.  Mar a Lago has doubled its fees in the Florida resort country club known as the Southern White House.  He talks to many on an unsecure cellphone, allowing the Russians and Chinese to easily profile him.  This stands in hypocritical contrast to the endless use of emails against Hillary Clinton in the campaign, despite the FBI never finding that security was ever breeched in her email server.

Another Six Pages of Effects of Empire Demagoguery and Militarism:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, November 2), “Demagoguery United States”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: 7 https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Demagoguery-United-States,2018163869.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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