bobreuschlein

A topnotch WordPress.com site

Meeting Geek Number One

When I look back over six decades of life, probably my most profound mentor of all, Gary Gygax, became the number one Geek in America in 2002.  From 1964 to 1974 I had a close association with Gary Gygax when we both were two of the leading wargamers in America.

Beginning With Avalon Hill

In the beginning there was the Avalon Hill Company of Baltimore, who gave us games that took us to the next level up in complexity from chess.  In 1958 Gary Gygax started with their game Gettysburg, and in 1961 Bob Reuschlein started with Chancellorsville.  Both were games of the Civil War, the conflict of America’s greatest president.  When I got tired of playing just my older brother and he got tired of losing to me, along came the Avalon Hill General magazine in 1964.  Those first issues of that great Christmas present allowed me to advertise for and find opponents wanted in Madison Wisconsin.  There was one article writer that stood out from the crowd with a barrage of articles in those magazines, and that was Gary Gygax, who I soon found out was also from Wisconsin.  Reuschlein was not nearly as active as Gygax in those magazines, but he won three of their contests, wrote about three articles there and one popular one called “Simultaneous Movement” for Strategy and Tactics magazine.  Bob was constantly in the opponents wanted column and wrote several letters to the editor.  These activities became the outside activities that helped him win the Math and Science Award in his Catholic college prep high school, Edgewood of Madison.

Finding Community

Wargaming helped him break out of his shell as a quiet shy young man.  He learned to play games like Diplomacy with others from the Madison area that responded to his opponents wanted ads.  A gamers group in Madison developed not unlike Gary’s Lake Geneva Tactical Studies Group.  When Gary Gygax founded the International Federation of Wargaming in 1966, many of those in Madison were ready to join when asked.  That club became the largest one in America during the Vietnam War years.  With two self starters like Gary and Bob in the same state, Wisconsin became one of eight Senate districts and Bob was elected unanimously in that district.  Furthermore, Reuschlein was asked to fill the special office of Coordinator of Wargaming, becoming the Ratings chair.  Gary challenged Bob to a play by mail game of Battle of the Bulge, Walter Cronkite’s favorite game.  Gary loved offense and took the Germans, Bob loved defense and took the Americans.  After a long hard fought game, a massive Reuschlein counterattack got lucky and ended the game as Gary resigned.  Impressed by this game between Gary age 28 and Reuschlein age16, next year Gary invited Reuschlein over one Saturday to play Waterloo with a friend from Chicago.  Gary thoughtfully watched and circled the table in his living room as this time the patented Reuschlein counterattack ran into consistent worst possible luck, became depleted, and ended in a loss.  This would be Reuschlein’s only loss in 20 official games played in the International Federation of Wargaming from 1966 to 1974.  Using a chess like scoring system, starting at 1500 points, Reuschlein became the highest rated player in the IFW with about 1905 points to the second highest score of 1720.

Wargaming Conventions

After a convention in Pennsylvania went bankrupt in 1967, the first successful wargaming convention was launched by Gary Gygax in Lake Geneva in August 1968 with one hundred people in attendance, including, of course, both Gary Gygax and Robert Reuschlein.  With Avalon Hill Boardgames, tabletop miniatures, and Diplomacy being played all over the Horticultural Center, all had a good time in the one day long Saturday meeting ending at dinner time.  The next year Reuschlein tried to emulate this success with his own Madison wargaming convention in June 1969.  Attendance that first year in the Madison Community Center on Doty Street, one block over from the downtown state capital building, was Gary Gygax among the 24 that gathered that day.  Three years later attendance at the Madison Wargaming Convention peaked at 98.  Reuschlein graduated from college that June in 1972, and the convention collapsed to 23 again under new leadership in 1973, never to be heard from again.  That first convention was covered by Gary Bender of the local ABC affiliate, who later became a fixture on ABC Sports for the national broadcasters.

Moving On

When Robert Reuschlein left Wisconsin for nineteen years in the State of Oregon from June 1974 to May 1993, he also left wargaming behind.  Gary Gygax agreed to sell Reuschlein’s remaining games at Gen Con in 1974.  After spending about 15 hours a week playing wargames from 1964 to 1974, Reuschlein worked about three years full time equivalent at wargaming those ten years.  Gary probably doubled that workload.  Gen Con with now about 300 in attendance finally offered a tournament in Avalon Hill Wargames in 1973, where Reuschlein defeated the editor of the Avalon Hill General, based in Baltimore, to win that first three game single elimination tournament.  That was using the game Waterloo and the next year, 1974, Reuschlein came back to Wisconsin to play in his final wargaming tournament at Gen Con, winning the first two games of Afrika Korps, settling for co-champion when time did not allow the championship game to be played.  Gary was moving on as well, as Bob played a prototype game of Dungeons and Dragons on Gary’s porch.  That last convention featured Gary Gygax in a sand box with wizards and the like playing something the rest of the wargamers thought was a little bit crazy.  Crazy like a fox, that was the first year of Dungeons and Dragons game sales.  Just a thousand games that first year, 1974, soon to be millions of games by 1978 sold each year.  1974 was the last year Bob Reuschlein saw his friend Gary Gygax.

Epilogue

Had Bob known Gary Gygax needed one thousand dollars to launch his new project, Bob had the money then, and life could have been so different for both of them.  Gary needed a friend and gamer to invest with him, not a stranger.  But then Bob would not have invented Peace Economics in 1986 and the Global Warming theory in 1991, both born out of his political career in Oregon.  Interestingly enough, both Gary and Bob started their great inventions at age 35, twelve years apart just as the age difference in that first play by mail game.  Gary Gygax’s idea for a role playing game with levels has sparked a new industry and made him millions of dollars with millions of fans.  Bob Reuschlein’s ideas have yet to be monetized and mass produced:  many a spark has been lit, yet many do not appreciate the very real importance of his inventions.  Reuschlein has finally turned to credentialism, earning a doctorate late in life in 2009 and starting a blogging campaign in 2013 reminiscent of the many articles Gary Gygax wrote for magazines for many years before the money started rolling in.  Just as Gary Gygax’s ideas seemed a little goofy to the traditional wargamer, Reuschlein’s ideas seem goofy to the Peace and Justice academic crowd.  Gary Gygax turned the corner by moving into fantasy, perhaps Reuschlein will turn the corner by moving into the fast paced financial investment arena, rather than the slow paced academic arena.  Peace academics are into social movements, not business opportunities.  Politics is a black hole that swallows all but a few.  Honesty is dangerous in both politics and academics, yet essential in good science.  But to “one’s own self be true and to no one else canst thou be false.”  Ageism also confronts Bob, as does the idea that economics can never be a science.  Global warming scientists are similarly slow to comprehend the meaning of real accuracy.

Principal link showing qualification for Nobel Peace Prize:

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Military Economy-Corollary 8

Military spending not only hurts economic growth as the last press release found, but many interesting corollaries spring from that central finding.

The 8 Indirect Military Economics Corollaries and dates:

Nobel Economics Prize Perversion 12-29-16

Low Level Military Defense 12-5-15

Creating Economic Model, 28 Steps 2-14-15

Military Money and Power 8-10-14

Military States Political Dominance 4-26-14

Banking and the Military 1-2-14

What Does Healthcare Have to Do with Empire? 12-13-13

Why Were Murder and Crime Cut in Half in the Nineties? 12-5-13

 

Nobel Economics Prize Perversion 12-29-16

This shows how economists do not even believe it’s possible to develop a science of economics.  I believe that’s because they are not engineers, hence ill equipped to handle the math and modeling needed to discover the physics like nature of the deadweight military spending role in the economy.

Low Level Military Defense 12-5-15

This concept shows that all is not lost recognizing that military spending slows down the economic growth rate so much that other nations will catch up and ultimately pass the hegemonic power.  A low level of military defense will ensure a competitive nation for decades to come.  The added benefit of letting the civilian economy lead the way is that the smaller fixed percentage of military economy forces will grow much faster in the low military economy, keeping forces modern and well paid.

Creating Economic Model, 28 Steps 2-14-15

The twenty-eight steps used to develop the economic model over a sixty year period of the American economy show the tools of an engineer and the agility of a model builder, war-game designer, and accountant.  The scope of a politician, scientist, and historian also draws in many useful ways of looking at the world.  Many interdisciplinary worlds were necessary to solve this puzzle.

Military Money and Power 8-10-14

Like the equal and opposite reaction of the physical world, military spending both confers power and draws power to it as an easily allocable part of the national budget.  It is the main glue of national politics in a hegemonic power.

Military States Political Dominance 4-26-14

The reason all US presidents elected during the Cold War came from high military spending states reflects the unique role of military spending in making those who rule over it “more presidential”. The one third higher white collar, blue collar, and engineering salaries in military industries and the communities they inhabit offer unique talent and money pools to maintain those communities hold on the federal wealth.

Banking and the Military 1-2-14

We’ve come a long way from the “Iron Triangle” days of Gordon Adams in 1981.  Even then the banks and military industries had 15% overlapping directorates.  But with financial sector profits ballooning from 0.4% of the economy to 3.5% of the economy in forty years, the marriage of the non productive military and financial industries have lead to unprecedented exploitation of the rest of us.

What Does Healthcare Have to Do with Empire? 12-13-13

Thanks to the “Spirit Level” book of Richard Wilkinson and Kate Puckett in 2010, I can now show that empire (military spending) is more important that even income inequality in leading to the social demise of a nation.  From social mobility to crime to many health care statistics, the empire society develops rampant social decay.

Why Were Murder and Crime Cut in Half in the Nineties? 12-5-13

The sharp drop in crime rates in America after the Cold War ended are a direct result of lowered military spending.  This finding of my seventies, eighties, and nineties research findings explains a phenomena that otherwise cannot be explained by the criminologists.

Link for full text of these 8 releases:

https://www.academia.edu/s/3720b53d0d/military-economy-corollaries-8-2013-2017-9-pages

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Military Economy-Direct 11

Preparing for another book chapter, I combine these 11 Direct Military Economics press releases:

Nature of Military Spending 7-2-16

This is a well laid out evaluation of how military spending really functions in our economy, together with rebuttals of the pro-military interpretations.  This is the most thoughtful and clearly spelled out piece.

History Military Economy 4-9-16

This covers one hundred years of the US military economy, beginning with WILSON and World War I, ending with Obama, 1910-2009. This consistently shows how the military drags down the economy, not adds to the economy.

Not Economic Conversion 7-3-15

The path out of military spending is not conversion but replacement by letting the military factories slow down and disappear while the resources build up manufacturing elsewhere in the same state or country.  You don’t have to beat a dead horse, just let the economy adjust naturally.

War and Occupy Economics 5-8-15

Occupied countries operate at 40% lower than potential, and busts come after every war.

Regional Military Economy 2-1-15

The false positive of military spending propping up communities ignores the boomerang of lost manufacturing that goes with the military buildups.  Overall economics is never better with the military unless there are massive deficits involved.  Deficit economic booms are falsely claimed by military as evidence of economic growth coming from military spending.

The Worthlessness of War 1-23-15

Takes a hard look at the rosy colored glasses of the militarists theories.  Great civilian achievements often come first, then the military takes credit from those inventions.

Next Generation Economics 12-30-13

The new world of economics begins with Peace Economics with tons of common sense spin-offs from the basic finding of lost capital investment wasted on the military.

Military Dis-Economics 11-3-14

Here are the thirteen defining correlations, eight of them .99 or better.  Then you can understand how military spending brings down empires from within.

Proof of Peace Economics 7-12-14

The ultimate proof is the sixty year model of the US economy with a correlation of .999.  Accuracy makes physics-like hard science out of the spineless jellyfish of the social sciences.

Real Peace Economics or Not 6-7-14

Imitators using the term Peace Economics are opportunists stealing the title of my 1986 book and using it as just another large economic number, not the lost opportunity cost that really makes the military spending significant.

Roosevelt, Depression and War 5-16-14

This destroys the myth of the World War pulling US out of the Great Depression.  When you see the real numbers, it takes a while, but nothing else makes as much sense as the new understanding.

Link for full text of these 11 releases:

https://www.academia.edu/31717739/Military_Economy_Direct_11_2013-2016_15_pages

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Biography for Nobel Prize

Introduction

It’s that time of year before the February 1st deadline (midnight Norway time is 5pm Chicago time) for nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Here are 19 press releases that tell the biographical tale of the long evolution of the stunningly precise Peace Economics theory.  The interdisciplinary breadth of my background was all necessary to create this theory.  Any missing components of my Nine Areas of Mastery and this development would not have been possible.  Art and Religion add flavor to the Nine but are not crucial.  That also makes it nearly impossible to find a peer group to judge my work adequately.  I turn to the Norwegian Nobel Committee for judgment of extraordinary work.  To nominate:  http://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/.

Nine Masteries

MATH was my first great North Star to follow and lead to all the rest.  Precision and imagination were crucial to using this powerful tool.  I developed three mathematical methodologies before I was taught them in the schools, so I learned how to take discovery to the next logical step.

WARGAMING I loved board games as a child and war games had enough challenge and realism to meet my needs.  Gary Gygax, the inventor of “Dungeons and Dragons” with a biography entitled “Empire of Imagination” became a mentor of imagination to follow and gave me the background to understand the strategic military side of military spending.

SCIENCE Physics provided a parallel universe with accurate pursuit of the scientific method.

ENGINEERING gave me the excellence to apply Math and Physics in the pursuit of working mechanisms.

ACCOUNTING gave me a system to evaluate and organize numbers and the determination to come to an honest result when all else fails.

BUSINESS taught me many tools to organize people to achieve a specific practical purpose.

POLITICS gave me a breadth of vision in the social sciences and the world of people to fill in the holes left over from deep pursuit of the more narrow areas cited above.

PEACE ECONOMICS took six months to produce the long term United States economic model and the first book that brought it all together.

NATURAL GLOBAL WARMING took me three years to comprehend the linkages of the three 54 year cycles of temperature, economics, and wars.  Then another twenty years to find that the 55 year moving average produced three straight lines in the 160 year global temperature record.

The Journey

The following nineteen topics represent the biographical section of my press releases, detailing all the above.  Complete copies of each release are in the link provided here and at the end. https://www.academia.edu/31102462/BIOGRAPHY_for_Nobel_Peace_Prize_2013-2017_23_p

Special Award 9-2-16

This Chicago suburban peace group awards a $1000 top prize for an annual essay contest.  They gave me a special recognition award and five minute speech.  I brought the house down.

Denmark Hamlet 8-20-16

This meeting of the Engineers for Peace held in Denmark had some interesting events.

CIA Live History 4-16-16

This is meant to take things out of the conspiracy theory label into the life experience I’ve had with the CIA and peace groups.

Learn in Japan 9-5-15

This trip to Hiroshima to be featured speaker at a conference there was a wonderful experience

Nader Yale Data 5-24-15

Meeting Ralph Nader in person at his conference and later going to a Yale Law conference and back home to UW Madison Big Data group in the Discovery Center there were all amazing.

Reputation 8-24-14

This contrasts the high reputation I had in Eugene Oregon with the struggles for recognition in my home town of Madison Wisconsin.  West Coast versus Midwest.

Global Citizen 6-28-14

My application for Global Citizen came up short, but was encouraged to try again next year.

How I Did It 6-21-14

This is the tale of how I pieced together some lesser known work into one spectacular theory.

Wargamer to Dr Peace 5-25-14

This is about the evolution from wargamer to peace activist in the seventies and beyond.

Nashville 5-24-15

Many would expect conservative part of the country business professors to be hostile to the Peace Economics message, but Empire Economics won a Presentation Excellence Award thanks to their vote.

Politician 5-14-14

This is where I learned my social science, on the streets and coffee shops of Eugene, Oregon.  I left the state on a first name basis with every statewide office holder of either party.  I passed redistricting and venture capital changes in Salem Oregon, and wrote the state application for Delegate Selection to the Democratic National Convention of 1984.

Doctorate 5-9-14

This took a second try twenty years later to finally get my doctorate.  Finally my work would be taken seriously.

Wargames 4-5-14

This introduced me to Gary Gygax in wargaming from 1964 to 1974.  Gygax later created the “Dungeons and Dragons” role playing craze beginning in 1974. Gary taught me imagination.

PE First Course 3-18-14

This took advantage of the Innovative Education program at the University of Oregon in 1987.  Peace Economics was taught for three straight years going from 2 credits to 3 credits to graduate level credit.

PE First Book 3-14-14

I self published and copyrighted “Peace Economics” in 1986, and it became an overnight sensation in Eugene Oregon.

How PE Starts 3-8-14

This all started with a brochure at a Fellowship of Reconciliation meeting in the famous Dorothy Patch house in Salem Oregon in March 1983.  I was in the second of three Oregon Legislative Sessions at the time.

Grandpa Markham 3-1-14

This shows the roots I came from, with my middle name from my Horicon Marsh grandpa, lawyer, politician, and poet.

Numbers Words 1-30-14

This is the struggle of my life, from math wizard to eventually scientist and written author.

Dr Robert Reuschlein 10-10-13

This was the puffery of my introduction to the ExpertClick world.

Link for text of these releases:

https://www.academia.edu/31102462/BIOGRAPHY_for_Nobel_Peace_Prize_2013-2017_23_p

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Peace Research Scientist

Introduction

It’s that time of year before the February 1st deadline for nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Last year I received at least two known nominations and that was enough to trigger a full review of my press releases and active consideration by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.  One member, the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, did the in depth checking out of my candidacy after I had sent in my most recent video.  This year I’m looking for volume of nominations, all social science professors and members of national assemblies are eligible to make that nomination and may submit nominations to be kept confidential for fifty years, or send me a copy to be kept confidential or free to share as you see fit.  The purpose of this release is to encourage such nominations, and be given some reasons to nominate me.  To nominate by simple email see http://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/.  Thank you in advance.

Accomplishments 2016

My foremost accomplishment of the year was of course the nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize January 24 and February 1.  On August 24th I was awarded a “Special Recognition Award” by the West Suburban Faith Based Peace Coalition of the Chicago area.  My academic career took off with two entries in the “SAGE Encyclopedia of War, Social Science Edition” by Paul Joseph.  Since that October release, my usual 10% downloads per visitor on Academia.edu went up to 70% for the “Political Economy of War” entry and 30% for the “Military Keynesianism” entry.  My usual 25% foreign and 75% United States viewings on Academia went up to 62% foreign and 38% United States and has stayed at that new high level of international interest and recognition.  Just a couple months ago I upgraded my reports on Academia and found out that I’ve been in their top 1% on a twelve month basis.  Thanks to a Certification of my “Military Keynesianism” article by an Economic Professor and former Finance Minister of Nigeria with a million views on his website, I am now ranked as an author on Academia.  The upward spiral is beginning to go exponential.  On January 14th I presented the paper “Goal of the Terrorists:  Raise the Cost to Society” explaining how economically and socially corrupting high military spending is to a society.

Lifetime Accomplishments for Nobel Peace Prize

1)         The greatest “reduction of armies” (from Nobel’s Will) ever should occur when my work on military spending and the economy becomes the new standard for economics.  This is just a matter of time.  Every test I can think of shows extremely high statistical correlations proving military spending is lost capital investment or lost manufacturing productivity growth or essentially deadweight on the economy with no growth potential.  Put another way, the stimulative value of military spending in the economy is best modeled as zero.  In my sixty year model of United States manufacturing productivity that modeling produces an essentially perfect fit of R=.999.  This also explains how the regional positive correlation with military spending shows it to borrow growth from productive regions during military buildups and return growth to productive regions when there is reduced military spending.  Borrowing and lending economic growth among the regions is not economic growth, it is redistribution of growth.  Put another way, manufacturing shrinks during military buildups and expands during military reductions.  Details:  https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

2)         The first point leads to the second point, that the best long term way for a nation or alliance to defend is to keep military spending low, relying on economic growth to improve defense capability steadily over time.  Leading with economic growth rather than military spending is much stronger in the long run.  One of the keynote speakers at the Telos conference on “Asymmetric Warfare” in New York, Steve Metz, makes exactly that point that the military needs to use commercial products that have outpaced the pentagon, in the future.  Before going to a perpetual high level of military spending after World War II, America used to let the civilian technology go first.   America civilians pioneered in airplanes and automobile mass production preceding the tanks and planes of the World War.  That is the winning way of the founding figures like George Washington.  That peacetime low military first way won wars consistently from 1776 to 1945.  Since then, American wars have all been problematic.  Details:

https://www.academia.edu/4475604/DEFENSE_STRATEGY_Chapter_Peace_Economics_7_p._1986

3)         The first point leads to the domestic consequences third point.  My finding that G7 countries had crime and murder rates proportional to their military spending rate is the keystone of declining empire theory.  Yoko Ono had pointed out on the anniversary that 1.2 million people have been murdered in America since John Lennon was murdered December 8, 1980.  Imagine if the military spending rate had been cut in half that whole time, and 600,000 murders had been avoided.  Oh wait, that actually happened after the Cold War ended, and murder rates were and have been cut in half since then.  And the criminologists don’t have a clue why.  That is more than the souls lost in Columbia in that multi-decade long conflict recently arriving at peace, thanks to the Nobel Prize winner from that country last year.  That alone is an excellent reason to award the Peace Prize based on this research.  Details: https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

4)         The fourth point on global warming is a direct spin-off from the American sixty year model of the economy based on manufacturing productivity.  The 54 year cycle is a direct result of the unequal evaporation rates over ocean compared to land.  The three years of research from 1988 to 1991 lead to a combined theory of climate change, economic change, and periodic wars.  Later Hurricane Sandy hitting New York in October 2012 lead to my trying the 55 year moving average on the then 160 year global warming record.  Low and behold, that resulted in exact fits in the 1910 to 1973 one degree Fahrenheit per century period, and the post 1973 two degrees Fahrenheit per century period we are now in.  Projection suggests the next upward increase will be when the 2025 cycle begins the process of land heating up first before ocean regulates the land second in the 54 year cycle.  To predict wars is the first step in preventing wars.  Details:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Weather Wealth And Wars

Although this release is named after my Radio For Peace International course, it is a collection of my latest press releases that pertain to the Environmental Long Cycle that started with Nicolai Kondratiev’s basic work on long economic cycles in 1926.  I was able to connect the three cycles of climate, economics, and wars into one great theory.  Here are brief summaries of 25 releases from my press release campaign of the last three and a half years:

Evaporation Changes the World 7-19-14

This is my most popular press release in this series, broadly discussing the land ocean earth system and the human effects of warming that slows the economy.

San Francisco Earthquake Predicted 8-26-14

This one had a significant ongoing afterlife because of the link to the famous San Francisco earthquake of 1906 and the Bay Bridge disaster of  the 1989 World Series.  Hurricane Sandy and major volcanoes are also mentioned in this release.  The military buildup of 2008 also had a direct role in the 2008 Great Recession.

Land Ocean 54 Year Cycle 7-30-16

This one looks at the frame of the interaction between land and ocean being the crucial driver of the long cycle.  The land overheats in the first phase of the cycle and the ocean brings the land back to normal in the last phase of the cycle.

History Repeats, 1852, 2014, 3-20-14

This is a deeper discussion of the war cycle than just focusing on the major wars.  Particularly focused on the early Cold War period of the last complete war cycle, important to assess the current situation as we approach the 2025 major war period.

Egypt-Britain Climate Change 1-24-14

This is a 3000 year approach to the rise and fall of civilizations as the temperature in the Western Civilization area starts cold with Egypt, then warms to 200AD where Rome peaks, cools to 450AD when Rome collapses, warms again to 987AD when the Vikings peak, cools again to 1580AD when Spain and Portugal peak, and currently is warming again since as Britain has the industrial revolution after 1750, but has not reached the peaks of 1000 years ago or 1800 years ago, yet, but is getting close.

Climate Economics: Much More than Costs & Disasters 12-3-13

This takes a close look at the human effects of heating from several big picture points of view.  First the direct human impact, then the geographic impact, then the impact over time, then the impact on stock markets comparing the positive cold half of the year to the negative warm half.

10 Big Evaporation Impacts 9-22-14

Many different impacts are covered here, showing the diversity of the impacts.  Forests, deserts, and sweating are all covered here, among many others.

10 Ways Heat Affects People 10-8-14

Many different impacts are covered here, showing the diversity of the impacts.  A collage of human, economic, and civilization impacts are shared with colorful anecdotes.  Four different links to more information are included at the end

War Cycle, 54 Years Long 11-16-14

Wealth, economic changes, and peck order drive the basic cycle.  Age of presidents has a role to play.  Political parties, anomalies, and what to look for in the future are all here.

Ukraine, Crimea, History, Context 3-4-14

Is this 1856 or 1956 is the first paragraphs question.  Then the thousand year record is discussed with a more specific focus on the last two hundred years.  Lastly the focus looks at fifty years ago compared to now.

Baltimore Riot the New Watts 5-2-15

The riots of the sixties are compared to the modern movement for black rights.  Then Ferguson and Baltimore are looked at specifically in these more militarized times of policing.

Why 54 Year Earth Cycle Matters 8-3-14

Why should we care about the cycle, how does it impact us today?  This big question leads to several big answers showing the relevance of the 54 year cycle to all of us today.

Civil Rights Cycle 3-29-14

The daughter of the main plaintiff in Brown v. Board of Education, the landmark Supreme Court decision at the dawn of the modern Civil Rights movements of the fifties and sixties, spoke at Edgewood College in Madison.  Turns out, the 1849, 1896, 1954, 2008 major events she discussed follow a 54 year cycle pattern for black Civil Rights.

How I Found the Earth Cycle 3-21-14

This describes events of my personal journey of discovery of the 54 year cycle.  It started with a drought and a discussion with a friend.  Trends 90 was a big help along with several other data sets and writings.  Real discovery takes lots of statistical analysis in a hands on way.

War and Violence Period Cycle 11-29-15

This merges discussion about crime and war into a complex composite theory of the times.  Militarization and empire play a big role in both areas.

Chile Volcano Eruption Cycle 4-24-15

This looks at the Andes Mountains and the volcano in Chile that erupted in 1857, 1961, and 2014, pretty good fits for the 54 year cycle.  Then this event is judged against others in the modern record.

Are Chile and Nepal Related? 4-28-15

This looks at a plausible relationship to two events 180 degrees apart on the Earth that may be related in some way, just days apart.

15 Year Earth Warming Pause 4-12-14

The IPPC panel on climate change was stumped by the difficulty of explaining how global warming has failed to hit a new high in the last 15 years after 1998.  The Reuschlein theory easily explains the event.

Hurricane Flood Climate Cycle 2-7-14

Hurricanes and Typhoons are the main focus of this broader discussion of events like Hurricane Sandy hitting New York and Hurricane Katrina hitting New Orleans.

Major Wars Happen in Cold Years 12-19-13

This looks at plausible links with very cold years and the start of wars.  How does cold influence the decisions of leaders and people?  A mystery that has some answers and some questions.

Kondratiev Economic Cycle Origins 2-9-14

How Nicolai Kondratiev, Klyashtorin and others furthered the cause of identifying the 54 year cycle.  Pulling the threads together by Reuschlein.

Crazy Cold Winter Weather 2-14-14

The Polar Vortex was in the news, seemingly without any rhyme or reason to it.  Actually Reuschlein noticed this pattern of cold winters in a time of hot years in North America, and has plausible explanations for the pattern.

54 Year Cycle is Crucial 2-25-14

This is a general discussion about the accuracy of the cycle.  How can a real scientist ignore accuracy and continue the old theories of inaccuracy based on lousy interpretations.  Average error of 1.5 years on 56 modern major events is about 95% accuracy for the 54 year cycle.

Philippines Typhoon History 11-12-13

These last two releases show that the major typhoon in history, Haiyan, follow 54 years after the major typhoon year of 1959.  Several different sources are discussed with disclaimers for less accurate events.

Typhoon Haiyan Repeats 54 Year Cycle 1959-2013, 11-11-13

This first press release on the expertclick.com site was very brief, followed up one day later.

The full texts of all of these releases are either available for the release dates after title shown on bobreuschlein.wordpress.com where you can pick a month on the archive on the right; Expertclick.com has another continuous list of titles under my name;

best as a complete bundle of 25 pages on academia.edu/RobertReuschlein,

you need to click “read” to scroll down the 25 pages for free on academia.edu:

https://www.academia.edu/s/cd6a6e1b44/weather-wealth-and-wars-2013-2016-25-p

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Economics Prize Perversion

I found a review of the book “The Nobel Factor” subtitled “The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy and the Market Turn” by Avner Offer and Gabriel Soderberg, and reviewed by Jim Tomlinson, to be a good explanation of how modern economics disguises a right wing ideological movement as the pseudo science of Economics.  On display in this Tomlinson review are many of the problematic aspects of modern economics.

Thomas Kuhn warns us in his book on Scientific Revolutions about some of these traps that economics has fallen into. In my (Robert W Reuschlein) paper “10 Scientific Revolution Facts” my seventh Kuhn point is:

#7.   “In the absence of a paradigm or some candidate for paradigm, all of the facts that could possibly pertain to the development of a given science are likely to seem equally relevant.  As a result, early fact-gathering is a far more nearly random activity than the one that subsequent scientific development makes familiar.” (Kuhn)

This underscores the point that Economics is not a science based on empirical findings but rather an ideology that uses selective interpretations not empirically well based. In the words of reviewer Jim Tomlinson, University of Glascow: “The failure of the awarders of the Nobel prize to be concerned with empirical validity is seen as their biggest failing in how they have made their judgments.”

“Over its whole history, there has been a careful attempt to award the prize to a balance of economists, with the most famous case being the 1974 joint prize awarded to Friedrich Hayek and the Swedish social democratic theorist, Gunnar Myrdal.”

This also underscores my #7 point from Kuhn.  It famously leads into the quote:  “Give me a onehanded economist! All my economists say, On the one hand on the other.” – Harry S Truman.  This leads into the Reuschlein #6 point of Kuhn’s work:

#6.   “it remains an open question what parts of social science have yet acquired such paradigms at all.” (Kuhn 1962, 1972)

In the absence of scientific paradigms, all of social science, including economics, tends to fall into the #7 trap.  I have quipped in private that economics is more of a séance than a science.  Monetarists, Keynesians, and Marxists, are among the differing “religions” of the pseudo-science of Economics.  Reuschlein’s point #9 from Kuhn:  “schools guided by different paradigms are always slightly at cross-purposes.”

And we know from the psychologists that cognitive dissonance is strongest when the differences are small between competing theories.  When they are all inaccurate, a case can be made for any of them, as I once learned as a legislative intern:  In the state legislature of Oregon there was a tradition of freshman hazing, where a new legislator is teased by his or her colleagues as they come up with reasons to oppose his or her first carrying of a bill from committee to the legislative floor for passage.  The bill may be for motherhood, apple pie, and the flag, but the hazing may suggest the mother is a woman of ill repute, the apple has worm holes in it, and the flag may be moth eaten.  Once you see that, you know that politics is an art, not a science, and consists as much of theatre and fiction, as nonfiction and reality.  That is what this scientifically trained electrical engineer (Reuschlein) thinks of the art of economics.

Reuschlein’s Electrical Engineering degree was the same as a degree in Applied Math and Science, except for 20 more semester credits required in Electrical Engineering.  And I made four honorary societies including freshman honors, Phi Eta Sigma, Electrical Engineering, Tau Beta Pi, All Engineering, and Phi Kappa Phi, All University in the third ranked program in the nation, best of the rest, after Massachusetts Institute of Technology and California Institute of Technology, the usual top two in Engineering.  So with six semesters of Physics classes, I know what a real science looks and acts like.  So when I began to document the paradigms shifts of military spending and temperature on macro economics, I took great offense to the notions of social scientists that what I was doing was impossible.

Tomlinson’s review begins with this statement by Economics History Society co-founder:  “R. H. Tawney, rejecting the Marshallian economics of his day, asserted that ‘There is no such thing as a science of economics, nor ever will be. It is just cant…’ “  A profound belief in ambiguity is basic to the thinking of a modern economist.

Tomlinson goes on to say:  “Much of the most detailed analysis of economics here concentrates on undermining the claims of the ‘market liberals’, a term embracing proponents of the new classical macroeconomics, rational expectations and public choice. The book is scathing about the claims made for these (and other) theories, arguing that they ultimately rest on ethical presuppositions, while showing little capacity to explain empirical changes in the economy.”

From the GE “Imagination at Work” ad on 12-23-16:  “Ideas come into this world ugly and messy.  They are the natural born enemy of the way things are.  Yes ideas are scary, and messy, and fragile.  But under the proper care they begin looking beautiful.”  Imagination at Work GE

The key to the General Electric ad is “Ideas….are the natural born enemy of the way things are.” Struggle is inevitable, ugly, messy, and scary.  I’ve found that to be very true, as attacks by some members of the Peace and Justice Studies Association against me and my ideas show.

From Robert W Reuschlein’s paper “10 Scientific Revolution Facts”:

#5.   “History suggests that the road to a firm research consensus is very arduous.” (Kuhn)

#10  “what a person sees depends both on what a person looks at and also upon what a person’s previous visual-conceptual experience has taught him or her to see.” (Kuhn)

#8   “Therefore, at times of revolution, when the normal-scientific tradition changes, the scientists perception of his environment must be re-educated – in some familiar situations he” or she “must learn to see a new gestalt.” (Kuhn)

#4.   Kuhn says a new theory “requires the reconstruction of prior theory and re-evaluation of prior fact, an intrinsically revolutionary process that is seldom completed by a single person ‘and never overnight.’”

These and other reasons are why I have sought the Nobel Peace Prize rather than the Nobel Economics Prize, reasoning that the political nature of the Peace Prize is more favorable to me under the clause in Nobel’s Will “reduction of armies” than trying to buck the ideology of modern economic theory as seen by the Bank of Sweden.

See this article and the two reviews that underlay this article:

https://www.academia.edu/30657234/Nobel_Economics_Prize_Perversion_2016_8_p

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info www.realeconomy.com

Nobel Peace Prize Path

Here are summaries of the eleven press releases most closely related to my nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize this year, 2016.  At the end is a link to the 18 pages of the complete texts of these eleven press releases.

10 Nobel Prize Pathways, 10-25-14

These pathways are my first serious attempt to lay out the options and rationales for the Nobel Prize.  This was the opening salvo in the Nobel Prize campaign after a very successful first year of laying out the many basics of Peace Economics, Empire Economics, and the Global Warming Cycle.  Then I left the issue alone for about a year, coming back just in time for the February 1, 2016 annual deadline for Nobel Peace Prize nominations.  This envisions three Nobel Prizes, one for Peace, one for Economics, and one for the Physics of the global warming 54 year cycle.  If achieved, it will be the first time ever one individual has been awarded three Nobel Prizes, several have had two.

Academic article:  https://www.academia.edu/4485636/NOBEL_Prize_Pathways_2014

WordPress blog:  https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/10/25/10-nobel-prize-pathways/

Letter to Nobel Committee, 10-5-16

This was my final attempt to persuade the Norwegian Nobel Prize Committee in 2016, using the “reduction of armies” clause in Nobel’s Will.  The two crowning achievements of my work are: 1) an elegant economic model of the last eighty years of the twentieth century in American manufacturing productivity with three basic factors and two special factors explaining 99.9% of the period with decade long Juglar investment cycles as the basic time unit. 2) proving that military spending is the worst thing for economic growth then opens the door to a new vision of how best to defend the nation over a long period of time.  Excessive military spending will weaken the national economy excessively making the nation vulnerable in a few decades time.  This requires a new lower balance for military spending levels in order to maintain a higher level of economic growth.  Being the world’s policeman has few benefits that match up to the enormous costs.  Direct link:

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/10/05/letter-to-nobel-committee/

Nine Areas of Mastery, 10-1-16

These are the necessary skills I had to have to put the main two theories all together.  The list could have included art and religion too, but while helpful, those two are not as essential.  The nine skills are math, science, wargaming, engineering, accounting, business, politics, peace economics, and the natural global warming cycle.  There are important biographical notes in each section.

https://www.academia.edu/15878982/Resume

Paradigm Shifts of Peace Economics, 4-30-16

Five paradigm shifts are explained here.  First is the fact that military spending is nonproductive.  The lack of a product means that military spending is wasted capital investment that does not give a product stream back to the rest of the economy like normal manufacturing does.  Second is that the economic flaw in military spending leads directly to the collapse of empire and the related collapse of the social structure over time.  This second feature ties the economics into the other social sciences in a greater theory.  Third military spending is unevenly distributed among the states and regions of a nation, causing big economic disruptions around the country as buildups and builddowns occur.  Fourth, the warming and cooling natural 54 year cycle leads directly into weather, economic, and war cycles of the same length and ultimate cause.  Fifth, the military spending and global warming causes lead to smooth elegant scientific explanations of a wide variety of phenomena, especially economic.  This new science is more like the science of physics than the social sciences, giving the social sciences a core backbone of physical science principals.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/04/30/paradigm-shifts-of-peace-economics/

The following three describe the actual process of interaction with the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Nobel Peace Prize Nominee, 1-27-16

This includes the first nomination letter.  I knew from the website that 300 nominations are typical, so I assumed many would be with just one nominator.  To avoid being overlooked and to make it into the top 20 or 30 who would be reviewed at the end of the first week, I hustled for a second nomination and got one by the 2-1-16 deadline.  It worked, they began to vet me.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/nobel-peace-prize-nominee/

Response from Oslo, Norway, 2-6-16

Because I track my results daily from the main two websites I use, I was fortunately up around the midnight cut-off from one day to the next.  Sometime between 45 minutes before 9am and 45 minutes after 9am Norway time, a very unusual pattern occurred in the data.  All fifty of the most current press releases had been looked at once.  In two years of daily checking of this data, never had more than 38 of 50 been looked at in a day’s time by everyone looking at my expertclick.com website.  Runs of 10 or 15 or 20 are often looked at by apparently one person at a time, but never fifty at a time.  I am sure this meant I was being looked at for vetting.  So I quickly mailed them a copy of my 40 minute video.  I sent an email to them warning it would take one week for the video to arrive.  In that email I mentioned “Proof of Peace Economics” as an 11 page paper on my academia.edu website.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/02/06/response-from-oslo-norway/

Nobel Peace Prize Watch, 3-19-16

On March 10th before 7am Europe time (midnight my time) suddenly 22 views came in from France.  To get that many views from any one country other than the US is extremely rare, even over the course of a year, much less an hour or so.  All 22 were labelled “home/archive” so I assumed the first was “home” and then went 21 months back in the archive months to July 2014.  Sure enough, that was the month I published “Proof of Peace Economics” and listed it for convenience on my wordpress.com website.  Unfortunately it was only a summary of the 11 page paper on academia.edu that really proves the accuracy of the Peace Economics concept beyond any shadow of doubt.  But it was very encouraging.  Sure enough, one of the five Norwegians on the Nobel Committee had been appointed Secretary General of the Council of Europe stationed in Strasburg France.  His name was Thorbjorn Jagland, a former Prime Minister of Norway and with economics as his major in college.  He must have been assigned to vet the Peace Economist, me.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/nobel-peace-prize-watch/

10 Scientific Revolution Facts, 12-21-14

This book review of Thomas Kuhn’s famous book highlights the key points I’ve personally found to be true in my work.  There are few paradigms in social science research and acceptance comes slowly and with much difficulty.  The world views of social scientists and engineers are very different.  When an engineer comes into the field with a revolutionary new perspective, that is empirically precise, it is hard for the social scientist to accept that work as the cornerstone work it truly is. https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/12/21/10-scientific-revolution-facts/

Peace Econ: How I Did It, 6-21-14

Preparation Meets Opportunity in Peace Economics

The miracle of Peace Economics, this is the story of how it all happened thirty years ago, back in the eighties, as an up and coming politician in Eugene, Oregon.  I was a public interest group lobbyist for venture capital for small businesses staying in Salem, Oregon for the workweek.  It started with a brochure in the legendary Dorothy Patch’s house.

Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/preparation-meets-opportunity/

Politician in Eugene Oregon, 5-14-14

I had many successes in party politics in the eighties, building a strong reputation in Eugene and the state of Oregon.  My Madison Wisconsin experience since 1993 has been a disappointment compared to that mildly famous situation.  With the Doctorate in 2009 and the Nobel Peace Prize nomination in 2016 my reputation worldwide is growing stronger as some peer reviewed work is slowly being added to my extensive portfolio of 145 press releases.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/politician-in-eugene-oregon/

Grandpa Markham and the Horicon Marsh, 3-1-14

Grandpa Starts Horicon Marsh, Largest Cattail Marsh in the USA

I’m the sixth generation descended from Archbishop Markham of York who took office in 1776.  My grandfather was valedictorian of his Minnesota Law School class, and wrote poems including one about me.  His fame was as Horicon mayor, Wisconsin State Senator, and within 5000 votes of the Secretary of State of Wisconsin.  His legacy is the Horicon March dam project in his first year as State Senator 1927.  The family tree has British Admirals in it, and my mother had an American Admiral cousin.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/horicon-marsh-and-grandpa/

Here are all eleven releases in the eighteen page collection:

https://www.academia.edu/30423568/NOBEL_PEACE_PRIZE_Collection_2014-2016_18_pages

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

Real Economy Institute,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

 

Russian Hacker Election

Harry Reid, his successor Chuck Schumer, and former Republican Presidential Candidate Lindsey Graham and Senator John McCain are the leading Senators, along with the President, of those wanting to investigate this further.

Malcolm Nance has been on both CNN and MSNBC, so the centrist CNN also takes this seriously. His book has been out for some time:   The Plot to Hack America: How Putin’s Cyberspies and WikiLeaks Tried to Steal the 2016 Election.   Paperback – October 10, 2016  by Malcolm Nance 

Malcolm Nance gives a very rational and clear headed interview on these matters, he is a very straight talker.  There is nothing breathless about Rachel Maddow, she is just a good journalist and presenter, as are Chris Hayes, and Lawrence O’Donnell who also had stories.

Harry Reid is very right to consider Richard Comey of the FBI a partisan hack who violated his ethics and the Hatch Act by selectively suppressing this hacker story and instead blowing up the email story out of proportion eleven days out from the election, violating the 60 day before the election no release standard, and instead using the devastatingly strategic eleven day before timing.  Guiliani had said something special was about to happen just a couple days before.  Harry Reid believes that Comey should resign, but there is not enough time to force him out before the new pro Russian president takes office with his pro Russian Secretary of State, the Exxon Mobil guy, Rex Tillerson, who had a $145 billion dollar deal with the Russian Oil Company blocked by sanctions. Those sanctions were imposed by the West after the Crimean and Eastern Ukraine revolt from the CIA induced Western takeover of Ukraine in 2014.

Clinton foolishly tried to expand her lead into Arizona and Georgia instead of shoring up the Midwest where she never even visited Wisconsin.   Comey turned a landslide into a squeaker.  Remember the Pennsylvania Republican who promised the election law changes would deliver Pennsylvania to the Republicans in 2012?  He was just four years off.  Pennsylvania is the rare swing state that has not allowed advance voting, hence everything depends on election day, hence old tricks like not enough voting machines in black areas can be relied on to suppress the vote, combined with new voter ID laws.

“Mike Turzai, the Republican leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, predicted the state’s voter ID law would help Mitt Romney win there in 2012.” Michael Wines, New York Times, 9-16-16.

I don’t know the details of the voter ID laws, but estimates put out in Wisconsin were that 380,000 voters, mostly young, black, Hispanic, and old, like many in the Democratic coalition, would not be able to vote.  Working the polls as I have since the 2011 uprising in Wisconsin, I noticed a surprising low turnout in our Madison ward, about 1500 of the usual 2000, about 100 voters short.  Taken statewide those 200,000 or so votes would be much more than enough to shift the election.

Harry Targ of Purdue is “right on” in the description of the US provocations since 1990. Supplement this with my report in an earlier release of $5 billion US spending in the Ukraine over 20 years before the 2014 militaristic events.  More details in this link to that 9-1-14 Reuschlein report:

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/09/01/democracy-in-ukraine-and-usa/

The electoral college victory should be appealed to the courts and have the electoral college declared unconstitutional as a artifact of the slave era compromise that violates “one person one vote” and the 14th Amendment.  That’s one way out of this constitutional crisis of interference in the vote and election by Republicans (voter suppression) and Russians (hacker-gate).  Then Hillary’s vote margin, larger than Obama’s in 2012, would elect the candidate with the most votes.  However, Hillary Clinton would have to initiate the appeal to the courts, and despite this happening to Gore in 2000, such an initiative does not seem likely.  Until someone does so, the right wingers will keep steamrolling over the left, because they are seeking total victory and the left is playing by the old rules.

Presidency tendencies report:

https://www.academia.edu/20604100/POLITICAL_Military_Presidency_1999_7p

 

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

Real Economy Institute,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

Total Warfare Politics

Introduction      

After World War II America had emerged as the hegemonic power in the world.  Hegemonic is the polite term, the academic term, for empire.  Empire defines the need for large armed forces and high military spending.  High military spending is the principal internal condition for the long-term self-destruction of empire.  Empire Economics or Peace Economics are my trademark names for explaining the scientific political and mechanical processes that collectively unfold over time when high levels of military spending have caused the manufacturing decline, the rise of crime rates, and the political corruption of a declining empire society.  I have called this paper “Total Warfare Politics” to begin to explain how the current dysfunctional political system in the United States is a direct function of increasing pressures from the forces of empire and militarism over time.

Political Corruption

Thanks to the weakened economy that results from high levels of military spending, conservative arguments are made stronger.  Restraint in spending seems the logical answer to more limited resources.  Military spending correlates well with crime murder and corruption rates.  High military parts of the country are more corrupt than low military parts of the country.  High military nations are more crime ridden than low military nations among the advanced economies.  A prolonged state of high military spending empire tends to increase the political rigidity of the system.  Constrained systems are prone to corruption and control.

Total Warfare Politics

Total warfare politics grows out of several traditions of militarism and has been taken to the extreme by the party closest to the military budget in its loyalties.  Because of the concept of unconditional surrender, coming out of the Second World War, extremism began to be seen as patriotic.  The nature of militarism, treating others as enemies, creates an atmosphere of depersonalization and lack of concern for others.  All this makes it easier for those leaning towards criminality to take the next step.  When you have less concern for others, it is easier to commit crimes against them.  Wartime tactics of demonizing your enemy can then start to creep into more and more of the culture.  With the rise of hate radio in the culture, especially so-called conservative radio, political opponents are ever more easily vilified, including demonizing the very concept of liberalism.  When women, immigrants, blacks, Muslims, gays, and abortionists are all demonized routinely, by the far right, political disagreement has gone over the edge to the dark side.  Starting with Barry Goldwater’s states rights, and subsequent campaigns of the political right, dog whistles were the way to divide and conquer, but along came Trump who did away with the dog whistles and other political correctness to tell it like it is, as the right has come to see the world.

Balkanization of the Culture

Ever since Ronald Reagan abolished the equal time standard in 1987 for media that used the airwaves, we have moved into a more and more divided society.  We can now choose the news we want to follow, reinforcing our beliefs.  The internet has reinforced these tendencies.  The production of fake news stories has made open lying more acceptable.  Polls show that 74% believe the fake news compared to 83% who believe the mainstream news.   Politifact, a nonpartisan group that evaluates political claims, found that 72% of Donald Trump claims were false, compared to 28% of Bernie Sanders claims, and 27% of Hillary Clinton claims.  The other Republicans were all in between these extremes.

Current War on the Democrats

Although Goldwater and Nixon started things out with states rights and the Southern Strategy respectively, Reagan began the modern right wing movement.  Reagan fired the striking PATCO aircraft controllers in 1981 that had supported him in his 1980 election.  Reagan also stacked the labor regulatory institutions with people determined to destroy unions.  Since unions were an important part of the Democratic Party election machinery, this was a direct attempt to disarm the Democrats politically.  Likewise, the school choice movement was designed to diminish teachers unions and increase Republican contributors.  Indeed, prison privatization and all privatization attempts are trying to eliminate funding for Democratic support groups and replace it with funding for Republican support groups.  Voter ID laws and restrictions are direct attempts to stop more Democrats than Republicans from voting.  Court cases have described some of these efforts as having surgical precision.  These efforts all contributed to the rightward swing in the key Republican controlled swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.  Only Virginia, controlled by Democrats, resisted this tide.

Supreme Court Control

Since 1969, for 47 years, the Supreme Court has become more conservative.  This all out assault against the left wing began with in the Bush v Gore decision to install George Bush as president in 2000.  The Citizens United decision of 2010 allowed unlimited campaign spending the year Republicans took control of most states just in time to redistrict and lock in their majorities for ten years.  And the voting rights partial repeal in 2013 had lead to changes in voting laws that allowed Trump to carry the Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida swing states.  Redistricting was so extreme that Republican majorities are locked-in in congress and about 30 state legislatures until at least 2020.  Fair play has gone out the window whenever the pendulum tries to swing back.  Abuses under Clinton have gotten much worse under Obama.  The concept of a presidential honeymoon has all but disappeared.  The filibuster requiring a 60% vote in the Senate has gone from rare to routine to block Obama in congress.  This extended to an unprecedented delay in filling the Supreme Court vacancy last February.

Conservatives Aren’t Conservative Anymore

Conservatives are not the party of resistance to progress, they are determined to roll things back and destroy the Democratic Party at all costs.  They have routinely added to the size of government and the deficit, by increasing the military far more than any domestic cuts and cutting taxes despite record deficits.  Carter slowed the deficit, and then Clinton and Obama have lowered the deficit.  Reagan tripled the deficit, quadrupled if you include the Bush term after Reagan.  Bush doubled the deficit, tripled if you include the recession started by Bush that carried over into Obama’s first year.  Conservatives take the free ride of tax cuts without spending decreases, while Democrats try to be responsible and end up paying a price for their responsibility, getting little or not credit from the media for sacrificing.

Dynamics of the military presidency:

https://www.academia.edu/20604100/POLITICAL_Military_Presidency_1999_7p

Power Point of the Stages of Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

Post Navigation