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Conspiracy Theory Diversion

“Conspiracy Theories” are often looked down on as crazy ideas, like the alleged sex ring operated out of a pizza shop by Hillary Clinton in October 2016.  But the spy business, like the CIA and others, often uses the term to cover up their various misdeeds.  Tricks of the trade like “cut-outs” are used to disguise the identity of the real people or agencies behind a given plot.  “Cut-outs” are go-betweens, like when a drug lord gets kids to deliver the actual contraband.  Labeling something a “conspiracy theory” operates kind of like that, it seeks to divert attention away from the actual facts and circumstances of an operation and return people’s focus back to the original whitewash story or cover story used to explain what is going on.  Members of the press and academics are then shamed, ridiculed, or coerced to stick to the original cover story, no matter how ludicrous.  This collective pressure to maintain the story is often the price demanded to be accepted by polite society.  There have been so many misdeeds done by our intelligence agencies over the years that:  it is not uncommon when you are hearing someone explain their new book or new research and you ask them a question about another so-called “conspiracy theory” they often demur and refuse to endorse some other proposition they have not personally investigated.  So “conspiracy theory” is the taboo put on any line of investigation that does not meet official mainstream approval.  Considerable evidence exists to confirm the continuing existence of the CIA Operation Mockingbird control of certain parameters of mainstream press stories.  Even the best journalists, like Amy Goodman and Rachel Maddow, who courageously expose many government misdeeds are often persuaded to adhere to certain guidelines.

Destabilizing Governments

The CIA proudly tells how they staved off France and Italy from going communist after World War II.  They also undermined the democratically elected Mosaddeq government in Iran in August 1953 and replaced him with the Shah, who later became famous for his SAVAK cruel police force.  This CIA-British operation lead by the grandson of President Teddy Roosevelt ultimately backfired when the Ayatollah took over in 1979.  So the CIA had plenty of experience with coup de tats when 1963 rolled around.  Anyone who watched the PBS series “I, Claudius” or had seen the Shakespearean plays “Julius Caesar” and “Macbeth” would not be surprised to find skullduggery at the top of an empire, since power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.  And anyone who has read the “Path to Power” book by Robert Caro about Lyndon Johnson would realize that nothing would stop him from rising as far as he possible could by any means necessary.  The movie “JFK” is documented extensively in a research footnoted script companion book, including things like keeping the 3000 man Sam Houston Brigade off the streets of Dallas the day of the assassination.  Mob influenced Jack Ruby can silence Oswald, but only the government can change the parade overnight, slow the car down to ten miles per hour, take troops off the streets, and other set-ups.  The CIA needed a spy network in the Soviet Union after 1945 and accepted many former Nazi spies out of necessity.  The CIA has often worked with the mob and drug lords as well:  these kinds of compromises come at a high cost.

Confusion Helps the Whitewash

Many CIA tactics perfected in the 1950s have endured down through the decades, and the prohibition of interfering domestically by the CIA has often been ignored in practice, while being adhered to in lip service.  Setting up Red Herrings to take the fall or responsibility for any given act is a cherished CIA tactic.  Lee Harvey Oswald is a good example.  Someone with a mustache in Mexico City is shown in one photograph outside the Cuban Embassy.  Supposedly that person was Lee Harvey Oswald.  Later, a reluctant Earl Warren is arm twisted to chair the Commission on President Kennedy’s death.  Lyndon Johnson cites evidence tracing Lee Harvey Oswald links back to the Soviets and or the Cubans and says to Warren, “do you want a nuclear war?”  So the ruse works with just enough manufactured evidence to suggest that possibility.  Of course this is ludicrous, when you know that Khrushchev cried when he heard Kennedy died because both Kennedy and Khrushchev knew that the world had come too close to oblivion in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.  They agreed to the 1963 atmospheric test ban treaty and were preparing to work on mutual disarmament in Kennedy’s second term.  Kennedy on September 8th, 1963 issued an executive order beginning withdrawal from Vietnam that Christmas.  That and dismantling CIA covert operations in a second term were a combination of threats to the CIA and military industrial complex that had to be stopped.  Lyndon and Hoover agreed, and the rest is history.  Conferences of 400 Kennedy Assassination researchers were meeting each year around 1990.  Hundreds of books were being written.  So when I began to find out the truth on the twenty-fifth anniversary, 1988, watching a Geraldo Rivera show, I started to read books.  Except for the pro-CIA books like “Case Closed” by Gerald Posner, or later the Vince Bugliosi book, all the other five or six bookstore available books I purchased and read seemed to fit together, explaining various parts of the story.  The only major confusion came from the Posner book who in the words of a lawyer friend who retraced my journey and more, is nothing but a lot of newspaper articles with no real evidence.  The Bugliosi book is based on various tests that allegedly confirm the Oswald story, despite the numerous and endless contradictions of that narrative.  When Oswald said in the Saturday night new conference that he was a “patsy” that film clip shows how shook-up he was when he was asked if he killed President Kennedy.  Up until that time he was only questioned about Officer Tippett.  How could he be observed in a third floor lunch room 90 seconds after the murder by a policeman and not be out of breath from descending three flights of stairs and running across the sixth floor to the stairs?  How could he casually “escape” by going out the front door and waiting patiently at the nearby bus stop and taking a bus?  Evidence suggests the real shooter escaped out the back way with a get-away car waiting for him.  The photo of Oswald with a gun and newspaper is of a 6’3” man not the 5’8” Oswald, with Oswald’s face put on the other man with obvious shading contradictions.  Then there’s the nine one hour episodes of the Arts and Entertainment Network exploding one myth after another, from the Dallas doctors to the phony DC autopsy, the colorized Judy Mormon photo of the muzzle flash shot by a blue uniformed man behind the picket fence on the grassy knoll, that 26 eye witnesses saw some part of, that grassy knoll throat and fatal head shot.  Six shots by three shooters from three locations are carefully documented by one of the one hour specials.  The Oswald double is discussed in another.  Hiring from Marseille, Lucien Sate the main shooter behind the picket fence, was known for his dum-dum bullets and crazy risk taking that cost him his life nine years later in 1972.  In Dallas, near the Texas School Book Depository, is located a bookstore with all kinds of crazy conspiracy books, books I have never seen in any ordinary bookstore.  This only serves the purpose of confusing the issue, helping the CIA to perpetuate the whitewash.  But the real story is not how, but why.  When you study why, the combination of Kennedy haters becomes clearly defined, from Hoover to Johnson to CIA to military to the mob.  Gerald Ford served on the Warren Commission reporting back to Hoover the goings on so the cover-up included the FBI.  Hoover had blackmailed Kennedy over sex issues in 1960 to put Johnson on the ticket.  Hoover claimed there was no mafia in America because the mob blackmailed him over his homosexuality including an affair with Roy Cohn.  Bobby going after the mob only united the mob and FBI.

Tony Avirgan

The Christic Institute sent their Jesuit Priest, William J. Davis to Eugene, OR to plead their case against the CIA for bombing an Eden Pastora press conference and wounding Tony Avirgan, the legal case plaintiff.  I asked him afterwards of he thought he could get justice out of a Miami US Court.  He did think so, but I knew better.  In January 1990 I spoke in three workshops on a Peace Economy conference in St. Thomas University in Miami.  The pro military bias is so strong in the South that the local newspaper, the Miami Herald, refused to even put a small notice out on this conference even though the promoters sent fifteen press releases on the matter.  I once used the Peace Resource Handbook (5000 national peace groups circa 1980s) to show that peace groups per capita in various states was about 90% correlated with a state’s military spending per capita.  The one clear exception was the 11 former confederate states of the South, where peace groups per capita was far below the national average, just a few per state, about a hundred for the whole region.  So it was no surprise to me to later hear the judge fined the Christic Institute $1,000,000 just for filing the entirely legitimate lawsuit.  Don’t tell me the CIA can’t influence the courts. CIA stories are so crazy even judges tend not to believe them, as I witnessed in one case where even the defense attorney seemed not to believe the former CIA client on trial.  The secret society can seemingly get away with anything, except in the third world where they are “on” to the Company.  Tony Avirgan’s mother picked me up at the airport in Costa Rica for two conferences there, and at the peace center created by Quakers, I learned how Oliver North was considered a war criminal subject to arrest if he entered Costa Rica.  Fifteen congressman were threatening the Costa Rica government for upholding their laws against the likes of North and Hull.  John Hull’s ranch was where planes landed after dropping weapons to the Contras in Nicaragua.  On the back shipment crack cocaine went to South Central Los Angeles according to books by journalists Leslie Cockburn of CBS and Gary Webb of the San Jose Mercury News, among others.

Jesse Ventura

Jesse Ventura tells the story in one of his books that one month after he became governor of Minnesota in a surprise defeat of both the Democrat and the Republican, he was asked to come down to the basement of the state capital.  There he met 25 CIA people who wanted to know how he got himself elected.  He asked them as many questions as they asked him.  Later he discovered that every state cabinet in the nation has at least one CIA person.  So much for the CIA staying out of domestic affairs.

Amy Goodman

“Democracy Now” is a wonderful show, but when I asked her about the CIA and the media and Operation Mockingbird in a Madison, WI appearance, she said she had a whole chapter in her book about it.  Wrong, that chapter is all about corporate media, nothing about the CIA.  This socialist belief on the left that all things evil are capitalist rooted and separate consideration of the military industrial intelligence complex is not necessary, leads to mistakes.  Noam Chomsky still believes Vietnam would have occurred had Kennedy lived, for instance, clearly not true as the real record is intensively examined by more and more scholars.  Institutions can override, but individuals still matter.

Rachel Maddow

Rachel Maddow, Oxford Doctorate knows enough not to even suggest any legitimacy to the “9-11 Truth” movement.  Yet she dutifully reported a landing gear from an airliner stuck in the side of a building about 500 feet away from the trade towers and thirty some floors up in the air.  Samples of the rubble showed traces of a powerful CIA explosive in a peer reviewed article.  When oil pipeline talks collapsed in July 2001 with the Taliban in Afghanistan, British newspapers predicted an October US invasion. San Francisco mayor Willy Brown and Attorney General John Ashcroft were warned in advance not to fly on 9-11.  Dan Rather announced the building 7 collapse as a controlled demolition in his original live broadcast, and was gone a few years later.  Donald Trump hinted at the truth, as someone in the real estate business would know a demolition when one saw one, but so far hasn’t played that card yet.  The building 7 collapse was announced on the BBC minutes before it happened, with the actual building showing as still standing in the window over the shoulder of the woman making the announcement.

Bill Clinton

Even with 1974-75 Church congressional hearings concluding the assassination must have been a conspiracy because there were too many bullets to account for, and 85% of the public believing the Warren Commission was wrong, President Bill Clinton claimed he believed the Warren Commission.  Why?  No one wants to end up dead like the Kennedy brothers.  Sometimes you have to go along to get along.

9-11 World Reactions

Someone in my accounting office took a vacation to Brazil after 9-11, and discovered people there hated Americans.  Did she not know about the 186 US military incursions into Latin America in the twentieth century?  Yet world opinion was so sympathetic (about 85%) to the US after 9-11 that even Iran supported the Afghanistan invasion at least until they were included in the axis of evil, with Iraq and North Korea.  Funny how all three countries had switched to buying oil in Euros instead of dollars, including Iran plans for an exchange located in Tehran.  The Korea inclusion in the axis of evil killed the nuclear peace process started by Carter and Clinton in 1994.  9-11 gets complicated quickly, favoring a CIA cover-up of the real story.

These War Decision Mechanisms often parallel CIA thinking:

https://www.academia.edu/28245203/WAR_Decision_Mechanisms_7_Papers_2013-2016_8p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, June 14), “Conspiracy Theory Diversions”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Conspiracy-Theory-Diversion,2018158596.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Media Influence by the CIA

Ever since the passage of the National Security Act of 1947, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has conducted media influence in the United States through its “Operation Mockingbird”.  This is probably the main reason the international “Reporters Without Borders” gives a very low free press ranking among all nations, lower than other G7 nations such as Canada, Germany, Japan, France, and Britain.  Only Italy is lower probably due to the press there being owned by a recent former conservative Prime Minister.  National security issues particularly are subject to this kind of CIA influence. This is an empire story issue.

National Security Act of 1947

This Act represents a radical departure from American traditions begun by our first president George Washington and the founding figures.  The act was passed over the opposition to it by the Department of War and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.  Their opposition was based on the American tradition of maintaining a small standing army between wars and using volunteer forces to fill out the ranks during war.  Their opposition was based in part on Washington’s admonition against foreign entanglements.  Changing the name of the Department of War to the Department of Defense represents the change in attitude from that of a republic to that of a worldwide empire.  In actuality, this represented a change from defense to offense, from national border concerns to world control concerns.  Inside the CIA the change went from classic intelligence operations to also include covert overseas operations to maintain the new empire.

Commercialism and Democracy

A long running theme in American history is the foreign policy clash between pursuing commercial interests and pursuing democratic values.  In founding figure terms this was the clash between Hamilton and Jefferson.  In twentieth century terms this was the clash between business interests and worker interests in the democracies, or the clash between small business freedom Leninism and totalitarian complete state control Stalinism in the communist world.  Contradictions abound here so I hesitate to elaborate too much.

President Kennedy

Kennedy’s journey toward peace was a long and difficult one.  In between crises in the Bay of Pigs, the Berlin Wall and the Cuban Missile Crisis, back channel negotiations continued between Zorin representing the Soviet Union and McCloy representing the USA for mutual disarmament and an end to the Cold War in his second term.  His Peace Corps and Alliance for Progress used carrots instead of sticks in his diplomacy and he was determined to end covert operations in the CIA in his second term.  In a September 8th 1963 executive order he planned to begin troop pullouts from Vietnam starting in December 1963.  His treaty banning atmospheric nuclear testing was the first on many with the Soviet Union.  All of this was ended by his assassination.  Lyndon Johnson was opposed to this peace initiative and asked McCloy to break it off.  Kennedy laughed when McCloy told him this and assured him he had the full support of the president.  The CIA man Kennedy had fired was put in charge of the Warren Commission whitewash.  In the book “Brothers” Bobby Kennedy intuitively understood the forces opposed to his brother and blamed them for his brother’s death.  Jackie had the French intelligence look into the assassination and they came back with the word Lyndon Johnson was behind it.  Watergate burglar and long-time CIA operative E. Howard Hunt also confirms CIA and Johnson involvement with the plot in his death bed tape.  Tony Morales of the CIA was Johnson’s alleged coordinator for the plot and also was in the Ambassador Hotel when Bobby Kennedy was shot.  Khrushchev cried when he heard Kennedy died and lost his leadership the next year, as militarists on both sides prevailed.  The Brezhnev military buildup that ensued ultimately brought the Soviet Union down.  Likewise Vietnam brought Johnson down.  Bobby Kennedy’s election to the presidency threatened to undue Johnson’s legacy and reopen the investigation into President Kennedy’s death.  FBI director J. Edger Hoover did not have the blackmail material against Bobby that he had against John and Martin Luther King Jr.

Personal Experience

As a peace activist I have learned about CIA influence gradually over the course of my lifetime.  Initially I read Newsweek cover to cover during the Vietnam War years, and assumed their hawkish perspective even after Tet in 1968.  I also assumed military spending stimulated the economy until my exposure to Sivard’s research in 1983.  I assumed the Warren Commission was right about the Kennedy assassination until a 1988 Geraldo Rivera show began the long process of casting doubt and numerous books and academic conference presentations increasing confirmed the clear new realistic interpretation.  Then the Gulf and Iraq Wars cast increasing doubt about official positions.  Particularly the national and local peace movement discussion list-serves 2001-2005 were huge in clarifying my current understandings.  Watching Ted Koppel’s nightline July 24, 2001 confirmed one of my key suspicions.  Koppel was former Naval Intelligence, hence could get better stories with the help of Intelligence insiders and his own security clearance.  He had Bush’s deputy defense guy on Nightline; Paul Wolfowitz, who insisted nuclear missile defense is a top defense priority.  But Ted used the pentagon’s own list of ten major threats to show that terrorism was most likely (#1) and rogue nation nuclear attack was #9 and assault by another nuclear threat like Russia or China was only #10.  He could not have done this without security clearance as I found out trying to obtain a copy of this ranked list.  I had someone at the Defense Monitor guiding me through numerous phone calls in my effort, only to end up with the pentagon refusing to give me the list because it was classified.  That’s why Bob Woodward, former naval intelligence, Walter Cronkite, OSS during the war, and Ben Bradley, Washington Post Editor and former CIA, and many others like them rise to the top of the media.

Church Commission

The 1975-76 Church Commission on Intelligence Activities revealed many abuses of power by the CIA, domestic and foreign, including foreign assassinations and domestic control of the American media, including the 400 top press persons in the nation. While Woodward and Bernstein became household words for their unraveling of the Watergate scandal that brought down Nixon, Woodward’s career was soaring while Bernstein was ignored after his expose of Operation Mockingbird’s control of the American press in a 25,000 word article for Rolling Stone magazine.  This is how the CIA handles whistleblowers about its various blunders and misdeeds.  Only now, some thirty years later is Bernstein reappearing on television shows in recent years.  Gary Webb of the San Jose Mercury News “Dark Alliance” series is another treated poorly by former CIA veterans in the media.  He dared to uncover the CIA role in the crack cocaine epidemic started by Freeway Rick in Los Angeles and protected by the Drug Enforcement Administration to fund the Contra Wars in Central America in the eighties.

Recent Years

National Security continues to be a weak spot in America’s so-called free press.  Even though 15 million protested in major cities worldwide February 15th one month before the 2003 Iraq War started, this was dismissed by President Bush as a “focus group.”  I personally attended a protest of 500,000 people in the nation’s capital in September 2003 and the New York Times reported the crowd as “tens of thousands” deliberately understating the crowd size.  This happened again when 600,000 protested the Republican Convention in August 2004.  Judy Miller dutifully reported in the New York Times the exaggerations and distortions of Dick Cheney and company about the weapons of mass destruction of Iraq.  Phil Donahue was taken off the air for daring to counter these lies.  Even one year after the invasion, 90% of American troops in Iraq falsely believed Saddam Hussein was behind the 9-11-01 attacks, so carefully inserted and repeated wording by the administration had left that impression.

For a tribute to the world peace President Kennedy:

https://www.academia.edu/5184189/KENNEDY_50th_Anniversary_Tribute_12ppt.2p. 2013

President Kennedy was my mother’s third cousin.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, May 28), “Media Influence by the CIA”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Media-Influence-by-the-CIA,2018157946.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Good Concepts 2018 Update

These ten pages of key concepts will give the reader some understanding of both my breakthrough ideas and personal background.  The first seven pages have eight power point frames each about a major concept of empire and climate theory.  The eighth page looks at ten key points about paradigm shifting revolutions, then the last two pages are biographical notes about my curriculum vitae.  The detail can be found on the academia.edu website link at the end, but the gist of each is given below:

Socioeconomic Decline of Empire

This is the best way to frame the effect of military spending on society.  It starts dragging the economy down and after a generation or so starts consuming the whole society politically, socially, economically, corrupting everything in sight.  Effects the economy immediately year by year and things like the crime and health rates over the time to raise a child.

Banks and Fascism

This side looks at the evolution of an empire and things like the imperial presidency and fascism.  The press, opportunity costs, and current history events are covered also.

Land Ocean Cycle

This powerful phenomenum emerges clearly out of a detailed analysis of the many sections of the planet as the temperature of the whole changes differently from the various parts.  There are many confirming patterns in the details beyond this simple summary.

Climate Cycle Affects Economics and War

When Nicolai Kondratieff first documented the long economic cycle of about 50 years in 1926, he thought of it as a manmade cycle.  Little did he see the relationship between the natural cycle, the economic cycle, and the war cycle.  Adherents of each type of cycle don’t seem to venture out of their silos to see how they each relate to the other.

Defense Strategy Lessons from World War II

The high cost and strategy of war are hinted at in these slides.  The concept of keeping the military low to keep the economy strong for the long run major wars every fifty years or so and the ability to mobilize over a short period of time argue for lower levels of military spending.  The defense strategy paper on academia.edu is necessary to better understand the possibilities for an effective defense recognizing the economic danger of high military spending.

Economic Model of 20th Century

The three to five major components of the long term model show how an accurate theory of economics can be built.  This is often believed impossible by many in the economic profession.  The basics are covered here, but the economic model paper on my academia.edu website is necessary for a more detailed understanding.

Birth of “Dungeons and Dragons”

These insights came from my wargaming years 1964-1974 with Gary Gygax, the inventor of Dungeons and Dragons role playing games. At the end is a comparison of Reuschlein and Gygax.

Scientific Revolution Facts

I distilled these key ideas from Thomas Kuhn’s “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” and live the adventure all the time as I endeaver to stake my claim to my own scientific discoveries.  These ten facts hit home to me the hardest.

Nine Fields of Knowledge Create Ideas

Here is a two page version of my curriculum vitae, with the important addition of nine fields of knowledge I found essential to the building of my theories.  Any one of them missing and I would not have succeeded.

For a basic ten pages read on my ideas and background:

https://www.academia.edu/s/979f0fe1e3/good-concepts-2018-update-ten-pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, May 13), “Good Concepts 2018 Update”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Good-Concepts-2018-Update,2018157444.aspx

Great Reads Make Theories

World Military and Social Expenditures (1981-1996) Ruth Leger Sivard

Sivard maintained for many years a worldwide catalogue of military education and healthcare expenditures for each of the 191 countries.  One year she catalogued the deaths from each war in the twentieth century, mainly the 77 million in the two world wars, but also the many third world proxy wars costing tens of millions of lives during the Cold War.  From my point of view, her multi-decade bar charts of the G7 and leading economies of world showing how as military spending increases capital investment and manufacturing productivity decrease.

Climate and Life (1983) Steven Schneider

This is a fascinating account of the rise of life on planet Earth over 4.5 billion years. How volcanoes gave the early Earth water for the oceans and carbon dioxide for the atmosphere, the two key ingredients for plant life.  How for the first 2.2 billion years of 3.8 billion years of life, life existed without the benefit of even a cell wall in the primordial sea.  Here I learned in a paragraph the importance of evaporation as the main first use of solar energy (85%) and the main difference in heating rates of land and ocean. This leads to all that follows in my discovery of the natural global warming cycle origins of the Kondratieff Wave.  The book is an impressive tour de force by a leading climate scientist and journal editor.

Spirit Level (UK 2010 US 2011) Richard Wilkinson and Kate Puckett

These authors document the extensive relationship between social disfunction and rising income inequality.  Human beings, as social animals, do not relate well to a sharp rich poor divide.  Indeed, this may well have been the central message of Jesus of Nazareth.  Society operates better as equals than as lords and serfs.  The lack of social mobility, crime, and poor health are all functions of the Genie coefficient.  Also, anxiety levels continue to escalate over recent decades in America.

Guns, Germs, and Steel:  the Fate of Human Societies (1997) Jared Diamond

Diamond documents the emergence of Western civilization in a scientific non-racist way.  He notes the importance of large mammals to domesticate as a key.  No region of the world has more than one or two such animals except for the fertile crescent.  The cow goat sheep pig combination of four allowed mankind to inoculate from disease becoming hardier.  Later the separation into many nations allowed Europe to learn from others nation’s mistakes and successes, speeding development.

Long Cycles (1987) Joshua S. Goldstein

This political scientist at MIT was no doubt influenced by J. W. Forrester’s long cycle work in the business school.  Forrester founded system dynamics.  Goldstein tracks European war deaths as a percentage of the European population for each war since year 1500.  This five hundred year study clearly shows a robust 50 some year cycle in major wars.  I find a clear 54 year cycle in the start date of these major wars by my own analysis.

Statistical Abstract of the United States (1899-2012)

My favorite here is the Bicentennial Edition showing a continuous record of economic data from 1889 to 1975, free from the obvious political bias of the individual year publications under various presidencies.  The rich variety and inherent accuracy of these records are confirmed by their use in my stunningly accurate economic model from 1920 to 1996 of the United States. Crime records and state by state military spending records are invaluable.  That this has been discontinued is a terrible shame.

Trends 90 (1990) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

This compendium of temperature records for various sections of the planet allows for the necessary data to document my natural cycle theory on several levels.  The key for me was graphing the difference between the annual warming records over the last century and a half of the Northern versus Southern Hemispheres.  This is a good proxy for the land versus the ocean.  The dominant Southern Hemisphere for the sixty years 1860 to 1920 and the subsequent Northern Hemisphere dominance of 48 years from 1921 to 1968 show the 108 year cycle that colors the successive 54 year cycles.  Now we are in a new Southern Hemisphere dominant cycle from 1969 to 2028.

1984 (1948) George Orwell

Orwell correctly anticipated the war is peace double speak of the Ronald Reagan re-election bid in 1984.  He saw how the Cold War was beginning to color our dialogue after World War Two.  He anticipated the tortured language and justifications of empire as power transferred from the British Empire to the American Century (a euphemism for American Empire).  Wars in this period of time are repeatedly justified with language later shown to be false and misleading, just aa in this great work by a great author.  Having read this book in the sixties, I later re-read it in 1984 and noted how well it described that year’s dominant politics.

The Gospels of the Bible (Matthew, Mark, Luke, John)

The Sermon on the mount in Matthew’s chapter four states that the peacemakers shall inherit the earth.  Indeed, this is the fundamental truth of Peace Economics.  Low military spending nations grow their economies faster than high military spending nations, eventually becoming dominant. Those nations who live by the sword die by the sword just as the gospels say.  As you sow, so shall you reap, and pride cometh before a fall also ring true in my Peace Economics research.

For a basic seven pages read on my ideas and background:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, May 6), “Great Reads Make Theories”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Great-Reads-Make-Theories,2018157177.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Income Inequality Theories

Overall

High Income Inequality and Low Social Mobility are both important parts of the high military spending empire theory.  Between the great Roman Empire and the modern American Empire lies the doldrums of Europe in the Middle Ages.  Medievalism is a special case of empire, characterized by the relative economic stagnation of the high military spending empire, with little scientific advancement and excessive church domination.  Medievalism has widespread social inequality as there were many serfs dependent on their lords for protection with expensive castles with moats and knights in shining armor.  The militarism is obvious in this situation.  Traveling is dangerous, too, with the need to be armed and preferably with sufficient companions and not alone.  Legends like the Three Musketeers with many roving bands that survive by their arms and wits.  This fear based economy is very inefficient and unproductive.

America History

In the modern era, income inequality robustly correlates inversely to the top income tax rate.  With a high income tax rate over 90% in the fifties and over 70% in the seventies, all income quintiles doubled their income from 1945 to 1980.  Since Reagan brought down the top tax bracket to 28% the top 1% have more than quadrupled their incomes, while the other 99% have had no material net increase in income for nearly forty years.  Yes, the famous study by the non-partisan congressional research office from 1979 to 2007 shows the top 1% quadrupling their income while even the rest of the top 5% show no progress.

Fool’s Gold

A recent study of American attitudes shows that 12% of us think that we are in the top 1% and 23% of us expect to be in the top 1% sometime in our lifetime.  That 35% total matches the 35% support for President Trump, otherwise known as the Republican base.  Of course the there are Democrats who think this way and Republicans that never expect to get rich, yet this delusion of the general public says a lot about our politics today.  If 12% believe they are in the top 1%, then clearly 11% are deluded.  And the thought that 23% expect to be in the top 1% shows how much we are a nation of aspirational fools.  Thanks to the Occupy movement of 2011 we have increasingly come to our senses, with polls last year showing 70% opposed the Republican health care repeal plan and 70% opposed the tax cut that mainly went 70% to the real top 1% not the deluded many aspirants.  This is what seems to be fueling the coming Blue Wave in American politics.  Plus the insults to women and immigrants and shootings of our school children, and we are all getting tired of the tweets and 2000 lies in the first year alone.  Yet the purveyors of fake news have done a good job persuading many that real news is fake, so we remain a deeply divided nation.  To the extent the Russians have aided this division, they must be delighted.  Seventy years of empire since the last World War and the drying up of social mobility in America have all aided this process.

Convenient Excuses 

One of the leading convenient excuses to get us to accept our situation is that the new divide is between those with a college education and those without.  Yes, in many ways the college degree is the new equivalent of the high school degree in generations past.  But the US, once a leader in college degrees, has fallen behind many European countries.  The 1% have put today’s students deeply in debt and threatened to take away Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid rather than restore high taxes on the rich to easily make these many problems disappear.  Too many experts get into the class divide argument of college versus no college degree rather than recognize the real main cause of many problems that the top 1% (really the top 0.1%) are hogging all the benefits for themselves.  These experts excuse their union busting in the eighties and the spiral up of top executive salaries in the last forty years.  It used to be that top CEOs earned fair wages.  Then the practice became commonplace to try to outbid others by 20%, leading to an endless spiral upwards.  CEOs in America earned 120 times their workers in 1980, compared to 35 or 50 to one in Japan or Europe.  Then a PBS show by Bill Moyers reported fortune 1000 CEOs averaging $37 million while their workers made $38,000 in the year 2000.  Almost 1000 to one.  Most figures reported since then are lower, probably by including all stock exchange companies, not just the top 1000.  That this is unearned is shown by the Chrysler buyout by Mercedes Benz, where the CEO of the failing US company was paid $33 million while the successful German CEO was only paid $7 million, one fifth as much.  Clearly top wages in America were way out of line and not based on performance or real results.

False Justification

The idea that cutting taxes of corporations and the rich will help the economy is problematic.  Businesses need customers even more than they need capital.  About a third of the corporate tax cut is being used to buyback stock, which supports the price of stock, but does little to boost the economy.  Tax cuts for the middle class will lead to increased sales for the businesses and will boost the economy.  Unfortunately, the Trump tax cut will go 70% to the top 1% and only 30% for the middle class or the bottom 99%.  Actually widening income inequality will only aggravate national health and social problems like low social mobility, high homicide rates, high mental illness rates, high obesity, high teenage birthrates, and high imprisonment rates as shown by the “Spirit Level” authors in 2010.

Community versus Private Sector

There has long been an imbalance between utilities run by government compared to those investor owned utilities. Public utilities charge 60% of the investor owned utilities overall in these United States.  Europeans with health care for all pay about 60% as much as people in the United States pay for less health care coverage.  Occupied countries like France in the early forties and East Germany during the Cold War also seemed to operate at only 60% economic levels of comparable unoccupied countries.  Why keep paying this 40% for overpaid executives and dividends and profits to investor owned utilities?  Why keep paying unnecessary middlemen like health insurance companies and plan administrators and specialized medicine rather than general practice medicine?  Why keep paying this 40% to occupying forces?  None of these imbalances make sense.

Collapse Rate

The award winning Eugene Register Guard newspaper of Eugene, Oregon, USA, had an editorial in the early eighties about how rural economies collapsed at an 8% rate absent new business development moving into an area.  Coincidentally or maybe not, 8% was the average percent of the economy on military spending from 1945 to 1980.  Military spending depletes capital and research from all good producing industries like manufacturing, construction, mining, and agriculture, hence is a major cause of the agricultural decline of that period.  Eight percent was the average drop per year during the 1929-1933 start of the Great Depression.  Eight percent a year was the long term decline of the cigarette tax in Oregon I learned in the 1981 legislative session.  Eight percent per year was the annual decline in the Wisconsin Dry Cleaner Tax started in 1998.  Eight percent per year seems to be the rate economic sectors decline in general, unless new industry replaces the old as is common in capitalism in normal times.  The 2009 US economy dropped 6%, but for just one year (about nine months).

For the chapter on various social conditions under empire theory:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay 6p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, April 29), “Income Inequality Theories”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Income-Inequality-Theories,2018156909.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Demonization Fuels Military

Overall

The modern public relations industry was born producing propaganda for the First World War.  People of German heritage in America, America’s largest single ethic group, were vilified and attacked even from the pulpit in that war.  Called “Huns” scary depictions were on many a poster, and Senators like Wisconsin’s Fighting Bob La Follette were ridiculed for opposing entry into that war.  Enemies need to be created and exaggerated to urge people to fight in wars.  “Us versus Them” dualisms succeed only with depersonalization of the Other.  The opposite of religious teachings of empathy, the ultimate religion, nationalism, encourages us to see the worst in others.  This attitude is a dangerous thing when widely held for a long period of time, as in the Cold War.  The usual 2% with deviant tendencies, criminal tendencies, can then more easily perpetrate crimes without conscience.  If they have the training, this can lead to extreme events.  If all you have is a hammer, then the world tends to look like nails.  It is easier to commit crime against another person if you can compartmentalize and consider your victim a depersonalized “other.”

Civil Rights

When militarism becomes widespread and accepted, not only enemies are created.  Any people that are different from the dominant groups may more easily experience some of the alienation and stereotyping that goes with racism, sexism, heterosexism, and enthno-centricity.  Other-ism, or as Robert Fuller calls it “rankism,” comes from treating any group of humans with less dignity.  The thinking becomes, “I outrank you because my group outranks your group.”  This false sense of superiority does not recognize the humble concept “but for the grace of God, there go I.”  The violence and fighting were much worse on the Japanese front than on the German front in World War Two, probably in part due to racism.  In Vietnam the enemy were called “gooks” and in Iraq they were called “hagi’s” with perhaps some racism.  A century ago, marrying outside your race was illegal in parts of America.  Sunday morning at church is considered the most segregated hour of the week in America.  Even the term “hour” shows some segregation as many a black religious service lasts for two or three hours.

Measuring Demonization

A good proxy for the strength of demonization in a society is the percent of the economy going to military spending.  When people compile lists like the fourteen attributes of fascism, about eight of these attributes reflect militarism and demonization as well.  Things like the health and stratification of society are also adversely affected by militarism.  Paradoxes also abound, such as how a socialist government-dependent structure like the military “protected” the rest of us from socialist communism during the Cold War.  Likewise, the military can have high standards and develop high esprit de corps as a functioning unit.  None-the-less the ills of militarism will still tend to appear in a militarized society.  Judging people is inherent in the military, and judgement is considered a vice.

Voluntary Military

The military draft was eliminated in America in 1972 because the poor did not have the resources to avoid the draft, with the result that about one third of the deaths of American soldiers in Vietnam were black even though blacks only represented about ten percent of the society back then.  The modern volunteer army now often tends to consist of many rural white people, another major community in America that is poor.  There is a tendency for racism and religious fundamentalism to persist in this group, with less contact with the diversity of cosmopolitan cities.  The American base in Okinawa Japan is very controversial over there because of the high level of rapes of Japanese women.  The Japanese constitution normally allows local areas to have their way, but the national government does not allow Okinawa to kick the American base out of their territory, despite plebiscites.

Crime and the Military

Two international and one interregional US studies in the seventies, eighties, and nineties, show a strong correlation (R=.996) between crime or murder and long term average military spending.  This association seems to have three foundations.  First is the low manufacturing productivity growth with high military spending (R=-.997).  Second is the compartmentalized thinking coming from applications of the enemy concept leading to a lack of empathy for victims of crimes by the 2% prone to such deviant thinking.  Third is the direct relationship between members of the military and former members of the military in things like high crime around military bases and many mass murderers being former veterans or coming from veteran families.  Please understand that this is not an indictment of many fine citizens with military careers, only the fringe 2% including some suffering from the effects of war.  Veterans coming home from wars often suffer high divorce rates, suicide rates, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), including many hundreds of thousands eligible for disability payments from recent wars.

Jesus and Empire

From a close study of the gospels over four years of Sunday afternoons and other sources, I have concluded leader Marcus Borg of the Jesus Seminar group was basically right about certain things.  He concludes that the main theme of Jesus was opposition to the domination syndrome.  That is similar to the concern about rankism of Robert Fuller. When we separate ourselves into various groups we tend to cut ourselves off from the full power and enjoyment of treating all people equally.  Taking advantage of others because of rank and privilege, race, sex, nationality, and even family, leads us ever so slightly down the paths of personal alienation and demonizing of others.  Some feel that taking the Christian religion away from the “love your enemies” standard into “just war” theory was a poor way to reconcile Christianity with the Roman Empire.

For the complete text of my “Jesus and Empire” sermon:

https://www.academia.edu/9979093/JESUS_and_Empire_12-4-05_4_p._2005

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, April 8), “Demonization Fuels Military”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Demonization-Fuels-Military,2018156110.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Reduce Military War System

Overall

The Peace Economics theory requires a whole new way of looking at national defense and national security.  The huge finding that military spending is essentially a non-productive loss of key resources normally used to increase the size of the economic growth rate means that excessive military spending can prevent a nation from keeping up vital economic strength.  Economic strength is more important to national defense and national security than military strength in the long run.  But what does that mean?  There are two key approaches.

Two Time Frames

When offense exceeds defense, as in nuclear war, quick reaction is urgent.  But because of mutually assured destruction, avoidance is the only way to really survive.  Short term military strength is necessary up to a point.  In more conventional warfare, quick success is unlikely unless one side is more than twice as strong as the other side.  There are four clear cases of the “twice as strong” economically being decisive in the World Wars.  When both sides are more equal stalemate is likely until and unless one mobilizes overwhelming forces against the other.  Then the initial military forces are not as crucial as the economic strength comparison.

How Often Wars Happen

United States, European, and Roman history is a good argument for the 54 year cycle in major war history.  There are many wars all the time, but matchups between the top two economies in an area tend to peak every 54 years.  These are the wars a national defense best needs to be prepared for, hence a long term “build the economy” strategy best prepares a nation for this point in time, with a smaller well trained military core kept going between major war events,  In this 54 year cycle, tester lopsided wars tend to happen about 18 years before the major war in America, and 15 years before the major war in Europe.

Size of Military

The larger the military, the more likely it will be used.  A large military will coopt large portions of the military political economy.  Justifications for a large military will be developed to of the maintain this large size.  War is the ultimate justification and wars will go on and on out of fear of losing, and continued funding for a war is often justified out of support for the troops.

Success in Prior Wars  

Low cost paid and success in prior wars encourages a forward leaning posture in foreign affairs.  For example, the lower the percentage of a major nation’s population dying in the last major war made America most aggressive in the early Cold War followed by Britain and then France.  For example, a bad experience in the thirty years war ending in 1648 lead to Swedish neutrality ever since.  Switzerland.s last war in 1815 was in the Napoleonic Era of mass draftee armies. The invention of the military draft lead to Europe missing a major war in the 1860s until World War One in 1914.  Joshua Goldstein’s 1986 study of European wars since 1500 shows a 50 year cycle of major wars with about 1.5% population loss.  After missing that 1860s war, war came back worse than ever with a 5% population loss in each World War.

Role of the CIA Covert Operations

Critics of America’s Covert Operations cite a long history of mistakes and policies favoring commercial interests over democratic interests.  Blowback, the tendency of such operations to boomerang on America, is perhaps best indicated by Iran.  Covert operations seem to represent over-the-top efforts that wittingly or unwittingly help perpetuate the war system.  Previous mistakes often lead to future excuses for wars.

Consequences of the War System

Social decay, crime, and especially murders are all consequences of militarism and the war system, the empire system.  Findings show that murder rates follow military spending rates among the larger developed nations.  The million murders in America in the thirty years after John Lennon’s death 12-8-80 could have been cut in half if military spending had been cut in half.  That would have saved 500,000 lives.  Indeed, something like that did happen halfway through that thirty year period, as murder rates were cut in half one decade after the Cold War ended in 1991, and US military economy rates were cut in half by the year 2000.

Defining National Security

Keeping a narrow definition of national security defined around results wars, leaves out the large number of lives that can be saved by avoiding 15,000 domestic US murders, consequences of lack of health care (35,000 deaths) and consequences of income inequality and poverty.  Excessive militarism increases murders, health care deaths, and inequality deaths vastly in excess of the 10,000 US soldiers and civilians lost in the war on terror the last 20 years.  Stifling the American dream of income increases for middle class Americans since the seventies is the deepest consequence of the de-industrialization caused by empire in American history.

For a detailed model of optimal military spending levels for a major power:

https://www.academia.edu/4475604/DEFENSE_STRATEGY_Chapter_Peace_Economics_7_p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, April 2), “Reduce Military War System”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Reduce-Military-War-System,2018155833.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Gun Control Students March

Movements Return on 54 Year Cycle

Millions rallied around the nation (some globally) against gun violence against schools and citizens yesterday.  Estimates of 800,000 mostly students in Washington DC March 24, 2018 compare favorably with the 1,000,000 mostly women on January 21, 2017.  These enormous rallies come 54 and 55 years after the civil rights march of August 23, 1963, with a then record 300,000 crowd.  Back then we had the great movements for civil rights, against the Vietnam War, followed by women’s and environmental rights several years after the first two.  Now we have Black Lives Matter, the Women’s counter-inaugural protest, and the Parkland Students against school mass murders.  Then a landslide election in 1964 brought in the Great Society reforms and programs, now a blue wave election in 2018, 54 years later, threatens to turn around congress 180 degrees in philosophy.  Democrats needing 23 seats to regain the majority, may gain over a hundred seats if the recent Pennsylvania special election is indicative.  It is remarkable that this repetition occurs at the same long cycle time with similar economic prosperity.

Advanced Empire Decay

Seventy Years of hollowing out the manufacturing sector to apply similar resources of capital, research, and people to military spending have weakened the US industrial economy largely replaced by the financial services economy.  Profits from the financial services industry have increased to nine times their share of the US economy in the forty years since the seventies.  Just as the New Deal momentum was in its last hurrah back then, now the Reagan conservative revolution is looking at its imminent demise.  Then the American empire was at its peak under Kennedy while now the American empire will have trouble recovering from Trump.  Ever since 1945 the memory of pre-empire Roosevelt America remained strong for many Americans until after the 1980 Reagan election.  Now many Americans do not remember what America used to be.  Prior to 1980 all Americans shared prosperity equally, with all classes doubling their income in those 35 post war years.  Now Americans in the bottom 99% have remained without meaningful wage increases while the top 1% has seen their income more than quadruple.  Thanks to the FOX News propaganda channel since 1996 and Rush Limbaugh since 1988, Americans have been uniquely misinformed about politics.  Thus despite his documented record of 2000 lies in his first year in office, Trump continues the lying, repeated by FOX news and his 24 million Twitter followers and 16 million Facebook followers, to hold on to his 35% base while turning off everyone else.  Polls show that 12% believe they are in the top 1% in income, while another 23% believe they will be in the top 1% someday.  These deluded and aspiring groups supplement the actual 1% to make up the essence of the 35% Trump Republican base.  The key Reagan deception was to sell America on his 25% tax cut plan that in fact gave a 60% tax cut to the top 1% while giving a mere 15% tax cut for the middle class.  This same four to one ratio of benefits continues in the Trump tax “reform” plan.  But thanks to the 2011 “occupy” movement, Americans now know they are being had.  They also know that 24,000 would lose their health care under the Trump Republican proposals that failed last year.  Nevertheless, 13,000 will lose their health care coverage due to the partial repeal slipped into the tax bill, with an estimated 10% increase in premiums due to that change.

Murder Rates Match Military Spending Rates

Steve Mills, who teaches medicine at the University of Minnesota, has shown that households that have a gun in the house are five times as likely to be shot to death as those in households without firearms.  My own findings show that most of the seven largest economy nations correlate strongly between military spending and murder rates, with a near perfect correlation as high as 0.996 during the last twenty years of the Cold War.  There is probably a lot of overlap between gun holding households and veterans.  One friend of mine once read a book about mass murderers and told me that they all had military backgrounds, and there are few exceptions to that pattern today.  Murder and crime rates are higher around military bases, and I learned at the 1999 hundredth anniversary Hague Peace Conference that Okinawa Japan women are often raped by US soldiers so much that the national government had to overrule the local government to keep the US base there.  Japan is a very low military low crime country.  In the fifties, the US learned how to train soldiers to kill, because over 70% of troops never fire their guns in combat in wars including World War Two, because humans are so naturally horrified about killing another human being.  78% of combat deaths in that war were due to artillery, a safely out of sight, out of mind, way to kill others.

Three Reasons Why Military and Murder are Related

There are three reasons why murder rates and military spending rates are so closely aligned.  First is the military drain on the economy, which leads to more desperate and crime prone people.  Second is the de-personalization of others that comes with dividing the world into friends and enemies.  Among the usual 2% of us with deviant behavior, this makes it easier to commit a crime against others.  If we can easily de-personalize our victims, we can then more easily commit crimes against them.  Meetings between criminals and their victims in prison therapy are often very troubling to the criminal when they see for the first time the consequences of their actions first hand in the eyes of the victims.  Third is the direct impact of training millions of people how to kill in wars.  When you have such training it is easier to escalate a fist fight in a bar into a homicide.  Just as in Shakespeare’s play MacBeth, murder is easier and easier after the first very difficult murder decision.

Guns or the Military

Guns are the easier to see as the “cause” of the mass murder problem.  Other nations have far fewer gun murders, and one comparison of murders between Canada and the US shows similar amounts of other categories of murders per capita, similar knifings, poisonings, and strangling’s, and others, while showing a big drop in gun murders.  Britain has reduced guns to the point that it has 60% less murders than would be suggested by its military rate.  But that is true also for France, Virginia, and New England, a four-some that correlate 93%, but at 60% lower than for US, Germany, Sweden, Italy, and Japan.  But this may be related to comparing 150 year old societies with 400 year old societies.  Is it the guns or the level of maturation of the society that reduces crime rates?  Crime rates in the US went down after the 1991 end of the Cold War to half their rates, just as military spending went down also in the nineties.  Some would ascribe this to abortion being legal since 1973, 18 years before 1991, but that would not explain the similar drop in crime in Western Europe.  German homicides have dropped 40% since 2000 while the US homicide rate has dropped only 20% thanks to the wars and military escalation.

For the additional “Crime and the Military” papers and graph on my academia.edu website:

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 26), “Gun Control Students March”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Gun-Control-Students-March,2018155580.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Pride Leads to Empire Fall

Historical Pattern

Why does a nation time after time follow the same patterns rising to empire-like power and then expanding the military to control others?  Emerging nations arise from the void of older established nations neglecting them, as they are on the outskirts of the main power play action.  Britain and Japan off the continent.  Later Germany ignored in the tussle between France and Britain in centuries past, rises to great power status in the World Wars.  Low military spending was the key to the Prussian school system excellence before those wars.  Now America, protected by two oceans, emerges and militarizes after World War II.  The pride makes them think they are invincible, not realizing that the military economic diversion will ultimately lead to the fall of the empire.  Poor science, and the military Keynesianism mistake of John Maynard Keynes, leads powerful nations to believe they can afford to spend a lot on the military.  Short term thinking also leads to poor high military budget decisions.  But ignorance of the Reuschlein findings, model, and defense strategy are prideful errors that really hurt.  Most people are number-phobic and don’t see the negative consequences of military spending.  They recognize the economic boom in military buildup areas, but fail to see the compensating decline in manufacturing in the rest of the country, especially the industrial Midwest Great Lakes states in America.  Then the deficit and war bonding lift the economy in major wars, unless they don’t match the military spending as in the economic decline in 1944 through 1947 for America in World War II and the two years after the war.

Famous Presidencies

America was very fortunate to have Washington as their first president.  He set the pattern of limiting himself to two terms to avoid the tendency of leaders to cling to power.  Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.  But it’s hard not to notice all of America’s top presidents have a war associated with them.  Wanting to set the historical record is very tempting to presidents and national leaders.  Winning a war is a big part of being a big part of history.  So the lure of fame urges many a leader into war.  Switzerland, run by a committee, is war averse, while most single leader nations are war prone.  Another characteristic of major war presidents is that they were not around to see the previous major war first hand.  Average age for starting a war among American presidents is 57, hence the 54 year cycle of major wars leaves them all too young to participate in the last major war.  Having served in a war can temper a leaders judgement, avoiding the reckless rush into war.

Hottest Downloads Exceeded

Since the publication of my “Hottest Downloads” press release April 14, 2017 three more academia.edu papers greatly exceeded anything on that list in the next half year.  These three new blockbusters were first “Dear Future US President” posted on May 8, 2017 soared to 87 downloads on 103 views, an astonishing 84% download to views rate.  The second came out as I renewed my association with “Dungeons and Dragons” founder Gary Gygax’s followers.  Telling my story of how the ten years of wargaming with Gygax lead to his invention was so fascinating that 130 downloaded and 229 viewed “History of Gary Gygax and War Economy” with a download to views rate of 57% this was posted on June 18, 2017.  Then in August 2017 “Military Complete Geography” was posted with its summary of the military political economy of the 50 United States.  This was viewed by 158 and downloaded by 163 with most downloading two copies each. This is a download rate of 103%.  My press release of almost the same name August 8th looked mainly at the top 32 states, with some small inaccuracies and incompleteness.

Nobel Prize Interest Peaks in Third Year   

No one but the Norwegian Nobel Committee has tried to look at all my 183 press releases on ExpertClick.com.  That signature convinced me they were very serious about my nomination from the starting two months of February and March 2016.  Then nothing happened for a while as the Columbian President won the Peace Prize in 2016.  But in 2017 some very strange things started happening.  Twelve days before and 10 days before someone looked at 24 of the most recent press releases.  I thought this meant the chair and vice chair of the five member committee were studying me.  Then the same thing the night before the announcement, perhaps a search for a third vote.  Then the award went to an anti-nuclear group ICAN with no coverage except the live broadcast on the BBC.  The world said “ho hum”.  Since then twice in November, three times in January, four times in February and on March 8th the signature pattern repeated, looking at the last 26 or 24 in a row.  Of these ten different visits since the last announcement, three may have come from Germany or France, one from Australia, and one from Switzerland, since the wordpress.com website seems to precede the access to the ExpertClick.com press releases.  Thorbjorn Jagland, Secretary General of the Council of Europe since 2009, works in Strasbourg, France and may live across the river in Germany.  He has the economics background to follow me most closely.  Australia could be a false lead, and Switzerland could be Thorbjorn Jagland on assignment in say Geneva, since he is the Secretary General of the Council of Europe.  It seems like I may be a favorite this year, look out October 5th.

For the original number one downloaded paper on academia.edu website:

https://www.academia.edu/34337629/MILITARY_COMPLETE_GEOGRAPHY_2017_9_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 11), “Pride Leads to Empire Fall”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Pride-Leads-to-Empire-Fall,2018155054.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Constitutional Costs of War

Introduction

In the US constitution the power to declare war is reserved to Congress.  Congress is considered superior to the executive in that it is defined in Article One while the Executive is defined in Article Two.  But there has been no declaration of war since World War Two.  Since World War Two the congress has let the executive choose our wars.  This has been referred to as the Imperial Presidency.  Since World War Two America has acted more as an empire than a republic.

This modern transformation of America resembles what happened to the Roman Republic as the institution of Emperor dominated the Senate as the Roman Republic became the Roman Empire.  Today we call that process America becoming the world’s policeman.

The founding persons were well aware of the dangers of too much militarism.  The father of the constitution, James Madison, deliberately under funded the War of 1812, because he knew that excessive militarism inevitably leads to a loss of civil liberties.  George Washington warned us of the dangers of excessive foreign entanglements.

The cost of war and empire is enormous, starting with the diversion of key resources away from the pursuit of happiness and economic productivity to the pursuit of death and destruction.  Jefferson’s life liberty and the pursuit of happiness are all jeopardized by the pursuit of endless war, such as the 186 incursions into Latin America during the twentieth century and the extension of the Monroe Doctrine worldwide with the Iraq War in 2003.

Reporters Without Borders gives America a low rating, especially during the Iraq War, because one of the liberties that suffers during war is the free press.  Censorship runs higher during wartime.  Jefferson has said he would rather have a free press than the right to vote.  His reasoning was that with a free press the right to vote is more likely to come, while the right to vote can be meaningless in a controlled press society.

Habeas Corpus was a right taken away during the American Civil War by Lincoln and in modern times with the prisoners in Guantanamo, Cuba, during the wars against terrorists.

US Constitution System of Checks and Balances

  • Article I, Section 8: “Congress shall have the power to declare war.”
  • Alexander Hamilton in Federalist Papers: President is to be Commander in Chief.
  • Hamilton: Congress declares wars, raises and regulates fleets and armies.
  • Article II: President leads foreign policy.

Founding Figures (Rule of Law vs Rule of One)  

George Washington warns us of the dangers of foreign entanglements and standing armies.  James Madison engaged in War of 1812 frugally to avoid the loss of civil liberties.  Thomas Jefferson would prefer a free press over elections.  (With a free press elections are possible, without a free press elections are meaningless.)

Imperial Presidency 

Rome started out as a Republic with a powerful Senate, but ended as an Empire ruled by an Emperor.  America started out as a Republic but with WWII changed to the Imperial Presidency.  Presidential powers in Foreign Policy today often overextend into war starting, with the Congress an after-thought.  Empire, Military Spending, Feudalism, Power, Control, Violence, Corruption, all have lots in common.

Civil Liberties and War      

Historical Wartime Abuse examples:  1798 Sedition Act, 1846 Spot Act, Habeus Corpus lost in Civil War, Japanese internment in WWII, Cold War controlled press, 1964 Gulf of Tonkin.

Perpetual War (Empire):  1947 National Security Act creates CIA with covert operations and media control Operation Mockingbird; Monroe Doctrine with 186 incursions in Latin America in the 20th Century;  Iraq War:  worldwide Monroe Doctrine; Terror War, widespread telephone and email invasion of privacy as Homeland Security budget quadruples in from 2002 to 2006 and grows to match that of the CIA with present estimate of $80 billion each.

Military Controlled Government

Regional Military Economics R=.97No major component of the US federal budget is extremely unequally and politically distributed among the 50 states than military spending.  This gives overwhelming political clout to those in charge of the military budget, especially presidents, congressional leaders, and committee chairpersons.  Those regions and states that get more or less than their pro rata (tax load) share of the military budget gain or lose economically & politically accordingly.  Military spending depletes the productive economy and redistributes to the regional “warfare” economy:  creates “middle class” type welfare-like program.

“How Democracies Die” Steven Levitsky, Daniel Ziblatt, 2018.

Trump has four authoritarian aspects:  Attacking the Press (and the courts), threatening Election Opponent “Lock Her Up”, Anti-immigrants,  Condoning violence at rallies.  Fortune 500 founders are 40% offspring of immigrants, like Steve Jobs whose parents were from Syria.  Ben Franklin tells lady on street that the constitutional convention gave us a “republic, if you can keep it”.

14 Characteristics of Fascism Dr. Lawrence Britt (5-28-03 Rense.com):

  1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism, 2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights, 3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause, 4. Supremacy of the Military, 5. Rampant Sexism, 6. Controlled Mass Media (40 million tweet and facebook followers plus FOX news for Trump), 7. Obsession with National Security, 8. Religion and Government are Intertwined, 9. Corporate Power is Protected, 10. Labor Power is Suppressed, 11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts (climate hoax), 12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment, 13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption, 14. Fraudulent Elections.

World Press Freedom, Reporters Without Borders: 

(2011-12 Index: G8 countries); 10) Canada, 16) Germany, 22) Japan, 28) United Kingdom, 38) France, 43) United States, 57) United States (extra-territorial), 61) Italy, 142) Russia.

(2017 Index: G8 countries); 16) Germany, 22) Canada, 39) France, 40) United Kingdom, 43) United States, 52) Italy, 72) Japan, 148) Russia.  Both of these lists are roughly in order of the national military percentage of the economy, except that Italy is low due to Berlusconi being both owner of the media and the government, and Japan in 2017 in the midst of a constitutional crisis over changing the constitution to grow the military.

Banking and the Military    

American corporate profits went from 7% to 12% of GDP in the last forty years.  Financial profit share went from 6% to 30%.  Financial profits GDP has gone from 0.4% to 3.6% of GDP, a nine-fold increase overall.  The industrial triangle book of Gordon Adams showed that major banks and major defense contractors had corporate interlocks of 15% between just those two industries, the same percent for all interlocks in other companies.

Empire “Opportunity Cost”           

Military Spending is both wasted manufacturing & lost capital investment. Military Spending takes away from the productive stream of the economy key research and capital resources.  Such resources normally keep manufacturing competitive producing new products constantly being tested by the consumer and business marketplaces.  Military Spending converts such resources to a national service that does not enhance the economy.  90% of military spending is for this national service.  A small part of the 10% spent on research returns as civilian spinoffs.  Military Spending is like a junk food diet, filling but not nourishing, Fat & Carbs without Protein to build muscles.

Military Spending National Economics     

The following four correlations studies best illustrate the nonproductive nature of military spending:  R=-.997 Manufacturing Productivity (G7+Sweden, Denmark)(1960-1978, Sivard Reuschlein);  R=-.993 Capital Investment (NATO 4+Sweden)(1960-1979, Sivard Reuschlein); R=.999 Productivity (3+2 factor) US Model (1920-1996, Reuschlein); R=-.97 Economic Growth vs Net Military Burden (1941-1948 World War II, Reuschlein)

Crime, Murder and the Military    

Using combined data from 1973-75, 1984, 1991 always indexed against the US, I was able to put all these countries on one graph.  Focusing on the G7, leaving outliers Britain and France out, the correlation was R= .996.  Later I noted that Britain and France correlated well (R= .93) with New England and Virginia, the four hundred year old mature societies.  Japan, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the United States are all about 150 year-old societies.  The older countries and colonies were at 40% crime levels relative to their military spending compared to the younger societies.

Social Correlations with Military Spending         

In rank order from high to low, here are some of the leading developed world international social factor correlations with military spending, largely from the 2010 book “Spirit Level”:  Social Class Mobility R= -.923; Factory Productivity R= -.868, Prisoners R= .852, Teen Births R= .818, Homicides R= .803, Work Hours R= .794, Mental Illness R= .789, Income Inequality R= .765, Press Freedom R= -.763, Obesity R= .753, Infant Mortality R= .679, Unsustainability R= .548, Recycling R= -.482.

Spirit Level Comparison     

Health & Social Problems index correlates -0.878 with military and -0.875 with inequality.

The above index from the Spirit Level book does a better job of proving the empire theory over the income inequality theoryThese next 6 robust correlations are from the components of the “Spirit Level” health and social problems index above:  showing the military economy correlation first and the inequality correlation second, the strongest six correlations are:  for reduced social mobility .923 and .934, for increased prisoners .852 and .658, for increased teen births .852 and .735, for increased homicides .800 and .571, for increased mental illness .789 and .737, and for increased obesity .753 and .524.  Overall the military is a much stronger average of .823 over .693.  The military and inequality factors are themselves strongly correlated at .765.  Based on this I would strongly suggest empire levels of military spending are a better explanation than just growing income inequality for all these disastrous social statistics.

Current History, Great Recession   

Bush military buildup is similar to the Reagan military buildup.  One difference is the much smaller tax cut under Bush (Less Deficit Lift).  Repeal of Glass-Stiegel made crash worse under Bush (Derivatives grew 10 times since repeal).  Real Estate problems developed under both military buildups.  The role of the military buildup is almost completely ignored.  I publicly predicted a recession in January 2007, predicting disaster for the $70 billion Iraq Surge.  It takes about six months to deploy troops in Iraq, and sure enough, the unemployment rate started going up in July 2007 and worsened continuously for two years.  The Financial collapse made conditions worse, but the military buildup started the downhill slide which exposed the weaknesses of the financial structure.  The 2008 military budget is twice the increase of years before and after.  The four economic quarters of the fiscal year 2008 are the four steepest drops in economic growth rate in recent memory.

Summary

Empires decline because they divert economic achievement resources to power projection.  Military spending and manufacturing capital draw from a common resource pool so as one increases the other decreases.  Low military high growth societies incentivize new product creation and achievement.  High military spending low growth societies incentivize market share nitpicking & control.  High Military Spending States give us 80% of US key political leaders, especially presidents, including all eleven Cold War elections.

Solutions        

There will be no recovery from the collapsing nature of empire until and unless the military is reduced.  The US industrial Midwest swing states that decide presidential elections will all benefit greatly from reduced military.  Even the military itself will benefit from faster future growth after the initial reduction.  All Great Lakes states are half the national average in military spending per capita and will benefit the most from the initial military reduction.  The parasitic mostly coastal Financial and Military industries can’t be allowed to kill the inland industrial “goose that laid the golden egg.”

For original eight per page power point slides with charts and graphs at Telos 2018 Conference:

https://www.academia.edu/s/3ec205248a/constitutional-implications-of-war

 

Constitutional Theory as Cultural Problem: Global Perspectives  TELOS February 17, 2018, 3pm China House, “Constitutional Implications of War”  Professor Robert Reuschlein, EE, CPA, MBA, Ed.D., Real Economy Institute, www.realeconomy.com, bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 4), “Constitutional Cost of War”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Constitutional-Cost-of-War,2018154802.aspx

 

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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