bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Earthquake Hurricane Update

Overview

The 54-year long cycle shows up in many ways.  The normal timespan is 54 years, but it really is sometimes 27 years or sometimes 108 years.  Every 27 years global warming goes from a hot trend to a cool trend and the turning points are often marked by major hurricanes, focused on major US cities.  Flooding is considered the major threat in a hurricane, so historical flooding patterns are a main marker of the pattern.  108-year trends occur in blizzards and volcanoes because every other 54-year cycle comes when global warming is coming from the land or the ocean and Northeastern blizzards in the US or southwestern Pacific volcanoes tend to be by oceans.  This is because every other 54 year cycle is led by the Southern or Northern Hemisphere, with Southern meaning more coastal and oceanic and Northern meaning more inland and land based, just like the two Hemispheres tend to be with most of the Earth’s land in the North, and most of the Earth’s ocean in the South.  Lately, because of global warming, there have been more 27-year events rather than 54-year events.

Earthquakes

The Greater Los Angeles area had a 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Northridge in 1994 with 60 deaths and thousands injured.  Twenty-five years later, halfway to Las Vegas, the Ridgecrest earthquake of 7.1 magnitude hit in a largely unpopulated area.  That is just two years off a perfect 27-year cycle.  For comparison, the Great San Francisco 1906 earthquake had a magnitude of 7.9.  The 1989 “repeat” had a magnitude of 6.9 and collapsed the Bay Area Bridge, just two years long on the 81-year anniversary of three 27s.  Then the 108-year anniversary had a mild 6.0 quake in South Napa in 2014.  Because of the wide variance in magnitudes, the cyclic behavior of earthquakes is less rigorously scientific than other natural phenomena such as blizzards, volcanoes, hurricanes, droughts, and floods. See Water Cycle reference at the end of this release.

Hurricanes

Puerto Rico was devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017, funds for recovery estimated $100 billion, with only $10 billion delivered so far.  North Carolina was devastated by Hurricane Florence in 2018.  Both had as a predecessor Hurricane Hugo in 1989, 28 and 29 years before respectively.  These are very good fits for the 27-year cycle, only one year or two years off, respectively.  Hugo clipped a corner of Puerto Rico and went on to dump a foot of rain on North Carolina.  Maria was much worse for Puerto Rico and Florence was much worse for North Carolina with two feet of rain over most of the state.  Both show the worsening trend of global warming overall, yet the cyclical nature of how often these major events recur.

Iowa Mississippi Floods

Iowa public radio said “Farmer’s concern is understandable because this year’s corn planting progress is two weeks behind the five-year average, and tardiest since 1995” because of excessive rain.  So, a major impact of these excessive upper Midwest rains is a return to the Mississippi floods years of 1993 and 1995, with the quad cities of Iowa and Illinois facing record flood levels in 2019.  That suggests a 26 year repeat of the 1993 flood (the greater one of the 1993 and 1995 floods).  That’s only one year off the perfect 27-year repeat cycle.  Add to this the Hurricane Barry floods in Louisiana this last weekend (landfall July 13, 2019) with state capital Baton Rouge (upriver of New Orleans) facing record flood levels, also on this 26-year cycle.  According to Iowa public radio “Conditions are even worse in neighboring states. Illinois has planted only 35 percent of its intended corn acreage, Nebraska 70 percent and Missouri 62 percent. Minnesota has two-thirds planted. South Dakota’s 25 percent planted compares to the five-year average of 90-percent complete by this stage of the growing season.”  Interstate 80, a major San Francisco Chicago New York highway was completely flooded throughout much of Iowa recently after weeks of storms coming through.

Cycle Summary

All these major events recently confirm two things.  1) That the pace of the cycle is shortening more and more to the 27-year cycle from a more normal 54-year cycle thanks to global warming trends which have shown a doubling of the pace since 1973. 2) Mounting evidence shows the next global warming acceleration will begin about 2025 and even the many signs of dismal news this century must be taken in the context of a relative slowdown since 1998 of the global trend will be reversed in 2025 as the current 1994-2021 relative cooling trend of the cycle good for economic growth will go into a 2021-2048 relative warming trend bad for economic growth.  Turnarounds tend to show a four-year delay, making 1917, 1944, 1998, and 2025 the endpoints of preceding trends even though multi-year averaging tens to show 1913, 1940, 1994, and 2021 as the true turning points from a longer-term perspective.  This kind of like the exaggerated wake of a boat after turning showing up a little later than the actual turn.  We on the water planet must realize that the 71% of Earth’s surface dominated by ocean acts like a shock absorber to the warming cycle system.  Transfer of energy between the deep ocean and the surface ocean helps ensure a return to natural energy balance after 27 years of land overheating leading to 27 years of oceanic cooling.  Not counting the artic poles, land tends get about 10% more rain than ocean overall, thanks to mountains.  Rain over the poles is a tiny fraction of that over the tropics.

Additional information about Global Warming Cycle (5 p.) and important accuracy addenda (4 p.):

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 17), “Earthquake Hurricane Update” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Earthquake-Hurricane-Update,2019182966.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 79 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

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What Does Peace Econ Show?

Overview

Peace Economics starts with the concept that military spending diverts manufacturing economic growth into a non-productive service of national defense of the same economic size.  That is confirmed by Ruth Sivard’s bar charts and Reuschlein’s 78-year model of manufacturing productivity in the United States.  Further study shows that military spending substitutes for manufacturing in regional economies based on states clustered around large cities.  This substitution effect lowers manufacturing employment while driving down overall economic growth and raising overall unemployment.  This substitution effect mimics local economic growth around the military spending and ignores the corresponding depletion of economic growth in manufacturing states.  All of this is shown in multiple tests of the basic concepts in several periods of substantial change in military spending, showing the effects to be well over 97% accurate in all manner of circumstances.  Hence military spending is inert manufacturing that gives little or none back to the economic growth of the economy.  The little is the possible 3% of normal 100% growth from research spin-offs.  To use a biological analogy, military spending is fat while manufacturing is protein.  Both come from the same research and capital pools vital to all national economic growth, fueled by a physical and technical abled blue-collar workforce.

Corruption of Military Spending

Peace Economics shows that high military spending mini-regions and states have crime and corruption of many kinds (crime, politics, health, mental health, economic inequality, lack of social mobility, etc.) proportional to the military spending.  Just as war leads to post traumatic stress syndrome, even planning for and preparing for war leads to demonization of the “other” and many related negative psychological effects.  The attitude is social poison, even if much is done to mitigate that attitude effect.

Historical Effects  

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the decline of empires and civilizations.  Toynbee thought 23 of 26 civilizations he studied failed due to high military spending.  Peace Economics shows in detail how many if not most of the United States national economic calamities have a significant military spending component in their unfolding.  For example, the $70 billion military surge in Iraq under President Bush announced in December 2006 or January 2007, was implemented economically in the fiscal year 10-1-07 to 9-30-08 $60 billion above trend military budget.  Those four economic quarters were exactly the four biggest drops in the economic growth rate over that time period including a few years before and since 2008.  While the ten-fold increase in derivatives since the repeal of Glass-Steagall on 11-12-99 remains the main problem and cause, the run-away real estate prices in the post 9-11 military buildup and the trigger by the surge brought the problem to a head.  The proof is that the major military buildup states were hit the hardest with real estate scams, yet the industrial states of the heartland suffered the auto industry collapse.

Social Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the social decay of empires and civilizations.  Alternative views that moral decay leads to decline ignore the direct links to economics that in turn leads to the various social decay forms such as crime, prisoners, diabetes, mental health, teen pregnancy, infant mortality, lifespan, drugs, gambling, economic inequality, and lack of social mobility, among many others.  High military Empire economies are flat, sideways oriented, control oriented, and stagnant.  Low military Emerging economies are forward looking, achievement oriented, and fast growing.  Occupations reflect these opposite styles, with lawyers, salesmen, and accountants to fight the petty battles of a stagnant economy, and engineers and scientists and entrepreneurs to lead the way in emerging societies.  Both economies have both styles in them, just more growth-oriented win/win styles in the emerging societies, and more win/lose styles and red tape in the militarized stagnant societies.

Political Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the economic power of politicians.  Half of the U.S. population is in the high military spending states and half is in the low military spending states.  The ratio is three to one, high states over low states.  This imbalance leads to about 80% of congressional leaders, cabinet members, presidents, and Supreme Court appointees coming from the high military states.  Fear based politics has grown in power over time in the modern empire society of America.  Trump has taken that to a new high in obviousness, showing the trend continues strong.

National Defense Effects

Peace Economics shows that high military spending is a key component in the long-term decline of empires and civilizations.  So, while high military spending may be necessary to fight or deter wars, economic strength is usually much more important to win wars.  Peace Economics shows that high military spending syphons off enough economic growth to endanger the national defense in a few decades time.  Hence being the most militarized nation may earn a nation temporary advantages at the expense of inevitable decline.  Holding to the world average percent of your economy devoted to military spending is a far shrewder long-time strategy.  Lower levels of military spending reduce the temptation to get into foolish wars and actual allow the military to keep ahead by maintaining a world class economy that develops first and then spins off into the military instead of looking for military economic spin-offs that are reduced by secrecy and being too narrowly militarily useful only to keep the economy strong, which doesn’t actually work.  Putting the economy ahead of the military let the United States develop the automobile and airplanes and industrial might first, making victory in World War II later possible.  High levels of military spending ever since have held America back to the point of being an ineffective power in several Asian Wars halfway around the world, a far cry from defeating powerful Germany and Japan in the World War. 

War Cycle

The Peace Economics model uses a 54-year cycle later shown by Reuschlein to originate from an energy imbalance between the continents and the oceans created by evaporation differences over land and water.  Land heats up three times as fast as water.  The continents make the first move warming into a drought period, then when balance goes too far in one direction, the ocean fights back with rains and floods bring on the cooling period.  Heat slows down construction and other work such that the 27-year cooling period doubles growth rates in the economy over the 27-year heating period, historically.  Then the cooling period high growth leads to new powers emerging and challenging the hegemonic order, usually in the last strong cooling trend of about three years at the end of the cooling cycle.  There are explainable nuances in the thousand year’s records of Rome (300 years), America (200 years), and modern Europe (500 years), but for the most part major wars follow the 54-year cycle closely.  This relative predictability makes possible significant reductions in military might in more peace-oriented times, militarizing only when necessary.

For additional information about Peace Economics accuracy:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p_13

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 10), “What Does Peace Econ Show?” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/What-Does-Peace-Econ-Show?,2019182717.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 75 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Because Of The Nine Fields

Overview

Too many people doubt the miracle science of Peace Economics because they don’t recognize 1) that I’m honest and my work can be replicated 2) it really does take all nine of these fields that have three years full time work equivalent in each field.  Take away any of these nine building blocks and the theory would be inadequate to the understandings needed to create the precise science models that have resulted.

Math

A comprehensive understanding of the field of math provides many tools needed for a thorough investigation. “Triangulation” is an essential technique to prove a finding from a variety of methods or angles.  “Differential Equations” always have a sinusoidal solution and this insight is vital to both the long-term economic model design and the long-term temperature modeling.  “La Place Transform” is a technique to highlight time frequencies of repeating events from any data set and leads to a compelling proof of long cycle theory.

Wargaming  

“Conflict Simulation Modeling” game design improves judgement and model building skills in a variety of ways.  “Probability” life is uncertain, and probability is extensively studied and used in wargaming.  “Military History” is the ideal strived for in wargame design, hence history is popular among gamers and helps in defense strategy modeling.

Science

“Laws of Physics” the order and precision of the universe and gravity guides much of what we do.  Six semesters of college physics define much of how our physical world precisely works.   “Momentum” defense modeling relies on the tendency of nations to maintain a fixed army or navy size over time, sort of like a conservation of momentum.

Engineering

“Control Theory” divides into a response phase and a steady state phase.  This explains the form of the long-term model, with a normal sinusoidal component and an abrupt discontinuity to a lower downward track for the Great Depression thirties and later the Oil Crisis seventies.  “Multi-Year Averaging” engineers need to estimate situations various ways, and this is one technique used extensively in my investigation to locate tops and bottoms of long term paths.

Accounting

“Bookkeeping” is a system of keeping track of data in various categories to give meaning to the results.  Various social data categories help show the depth and breadth of empire decay beyond the economic.  “Present Fairly” is a clause in the CPA financial statement that emphasizes the ethical code of a CPA.  This concept leads to estimations being used to fill in otherwise empty blanks.  Accounting leads to an attitude of forced completion that does not tolerate incomplete pictures.  This discipline makes sure the estimation muscle is exercised and improves intelligent estimating abilities.

Business

“Entrepreneurship” is a skill in organizing and guiding efforts towards a result, as well as an openness to new ideas.  “Decision Trees” show how one thing leads to another, a key investigative technique used extensively in my model building.

Politics

“Covers Everything” A legislative internship is an amazing window on how expert testimony in committees sheds amazing light on all manner of human endeavors.  General information can be extremely detailed and informative.  One of my greatest educational experiences was working in the legislative arena. “Social Science” going to hundreds of committee meetings in the civic calendar is also an extraordinary education.  In politics I learned about the Kondratiev Wave 54-year cycle and the importance of nine-year Juglar cycles, two key components to the long-term economic model that economists hardly ever mention much less use.

Peace Economics

“Follow the Dominoes” follow the money helps confirm the nature of military spending and shows how the military spending domino leads to various adverse consequences of an empire society directly related to the military spending.  Politics is perverted and controlled, as is health crime and social-economic consequences.

Warming Cycle

“Evaporation Energy Balance” the Earth’s land warms about three times as fast as the ocean, yet energy balance requires this to balance out over time.  Sixteen long term records of temperature and precipitation helped locate the driving forces in this process by dividing the Earth up in various ways.  “Three Cycles Confirm” the 54-year cycle resides in natural, economic, and war timing data.  Relating these three fields helps confirm the bona fides of all three separate forms of the cycle.

For additional information about the seventeen main findings:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

See my Curriculum Vitae for the nine fields on my resume:  https://realeconomy.academia.edu/RobertReuschlein/CurriculumVitae

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, June 26), “Because Of The Nine Fields” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Because-of-the-Nine-Fields,2019182265.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 71 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

Value of Telling the Truth 

Overview

In this era of Fake News and those who seek the truth being labelled “Enemies of the People”, honesty seems almost an endangered species. While those in pursuit of science seek truth as their goal, those who practice more social skills still value the white lie.  Finding the truth on the internet is an elusive endeavor.

Personal History

Truth has been my North Star just as much as mathematics has been to me personally.  Math and truth are similar in being very straight forward and exacting.  Very early in life I committed to never lie.  I might be silent sometimes or perhaps change the subject, but I do not remember telling a lie until I was 23 years old.  I was very fierce about this, and still am very resistant to anything that is not the truth.  I remember an eighth grader bullying a fellow third grader on the path home from school and that’s when I committed to social justice.  It is said “to one’s own self be true and to no one else can thou be false.”  This works for me.  Lying only makes things confusing and too complicated to follow well.  The liar reaches the point of the saying “Oh what I tangled web we weave once we begin to deceive.”  Kind of like saying it’s hard to be true to your lies.

Truth  

Telling the truth, being always truthful, has been very important in building my personal understanding of life.  When confronted with two seemingly contradictory facts, I have always looked for ways both can be true.  This has sometimes taken some time but sooner or later an explanatory vision will come to me.  This tool has been important in building my scientific model of the world and how the world works.  Others will quit and be satisfied with confusion and “just let it go” but I keep the thought in the back of my mind until resolution results.  In this way I am always trying to learn, and always striving for more perfect understanding.

Tactlessness

Adhering to the principle of truth makes the white lie a skill I have refused to develop.  Some people, most people, would rather be liked or appreciated, but I value respect and attention more.  This springs from my devotion to honesty.

Trust

In the Spirit Level, Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger book (2009-2011 Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett) the authors find that trust is the most important variable in why income inequality weakens societies.  Trust comes from honesty and truth telling.

Lying

“Diogenes of Sinope (c. 404-323 BCE) was a Greek Cynic philosopher best known for holding a lantern (or candle) to the faces of the citizens of Athens claiming he was searching for an honest man.” (Ancient History Encyclopedia).  Lying has been found in 24% of resumes and half of all academic articles have false data used. The president has been documented by the Washington Post and the New York Times in over 10,000 lies.  What is amazing is that the president’s followers believe he tells the truth.  Thanks to the new “Pravda” state TV of Fox News his easily debunked view of the world is substantiated by his sycophants.  But the problem of lying is that the truth comes out eventually.  But zealots everywhere have trouble recognizing the truth.  It is easier to recognize the truth if you live a truthful life.  Trump knows branding and marketing but has no interest in sticking to the truth if it damages the marketing.  Nazi Joseph Goebbels knew it didn’t matter if the truth got out so long as the propaganda narrative remained preeminent.

Modern World

In the modern world of the internet, truth is hard to discern, and may even be confusing to the younger generation because it is so elusive.  When you talk about truth, they give you blank stares.  Late Night TV host Stephen Colbert has even coined the word “truthiness” to convey this ambiguity.  Wikipedia states “Truthiness is the belief or assertion that a particular statement is true based on the intuition or perceptions of some individual or individuals, without regard to evidence, logic, intellectual examination, or facts.”

Peace Economics

In pursuit of the truth by research and engineering, art science and math all play important roles.  When the broad picture is a little muddy, various ways of examining the details can help enormously to clarify whatever is the truth.  This is often a search for highs, lows, and parameters for an underlying model then testing that model against the actual data to see what scale fits most exactly.  If it is basic truth, it should work best under the most extreme circumstances, like World War II or the Great Depression.  My economic model has gradually improved over the last hundred years as the annual precision has approached the accuracy of the long-term model.  Fine tuning then leads to more unexplained details standing out.  Such a process should never be confused or dismissed as cherry-picking, it is just the recognition that even when theory explains most cases, there will always be details that need a new explanation, often a relatively obvious explanation.  That is the nature of engineering science.  Follow the data closely and with a wide range of perspectives or fields, if you are looking for the truth.  Don’t let red herrings based on knowledge you are making obsolete lead you astray from findings that better explain the totality of the circumstances.

For additional information about this see:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, June 19), “Value of Telling the Truth” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Value-of-Telling-the-Truth,2019182057.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 68 in 8.5 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Empire Climate 32 Chapters

Overview        Here is the first draft of my 32 Chapter book table of contents with brief descriptions for each chapter followed by brief titles of the 216 press releases with their dates of release relevant to each chapter, listing in reverse chronological order.  The working book title is “Weather Wealth and Wars“ subtitled “Empire and Climate Economics”

  1. Introduction to Empire Theory A) Why Is USA an Empire? 11/5/2017; B) 12 Stages of Empire 9/29/2014; C) Military Terror Policing 8/17/2014; D) Peace Economics Matters 7/4/2014; E) Empire Concept 2/18/2014
  2. Social Decay of Empire. Empire societies are stagnant. As the frustration increases, win/lose “sideways” behaviors are rewarded.  Crime increases, with drugs and gambling sought out to paper over the pain.  Feudalism is the result, with the rise of militarism, the church, lords and serfs, at the expense of science and achievement.  A) Misogyny and Empire 9/10/2018; B) Militarism Distorts USA 8/14/2018; C) Income Inequality 4/29/2018; D) Military Economic Corollary 3/11/2017; E) Modern Empire 8/6/2016; F) Violent Society 7/23/2016; G) Football Baseball War5/28/2016; H) Peace Culture Economics 3/27/2015; I) Control Freak Society 3/14/2015; J) 12 Days of Empire 11/29/2014; K) 10 Empire Warps 10/12/2014; L) 10 Football Warlike 10/5/2014; M) Work and Empire 7/26/2014; N) Football and Empire 12/15/2013; O) Health and Crime 12/13/2013; P) Crime and Empire 12/5/2013
  3. Empire Trap. Empires go through several stages, rising due to natural defenses like oceans and a citizen military. Challenging the old empire in an epic battle gives one a taste of militarism.  Power and control prove seductive enough to develop a permanent military that drags the whole system down over time.                               A) Need to Know About Empire 1/8/2019; B) Born in The USA 12/14/2018; C) Demagoguery US 11/2/2018; D) Pride Comes Before Empire Fall 3/11/2018; E) CNN Top 5 All Empire 1/2/2016; F) Solstice Shopping 12/27/2014
  4. Historical Cases. American myths about World War II and the Great Depression allowed the myth of military Keynesianism to grow despite many examples of disastrous war spending in other nations.         A) How Empire Emerged 1/28/2018; B) Empire Explains 9/17/2016; C) War Decisions 9/9/2016; D) Deep Politics Iraq 6/4/2016; E) History 100 Years US 4/9/2016; F) CIA Presidents 1/23/2016; G) Modern Feudalism 2/21/2015; H) Religion Empire 1/3/2015; I) Hoover Great Depression 6/14/2014; J) Roosevelt 5/16/2014; K) Truman War 4/20/2014; L) Ukraine Crimea 3/4/2014
  5. International Military Economy. The resources used in the military budget are just like those of good producing industries like manufacturing. But there is no useful consumer product coming from the military.  So military spending depletes key capital and scientific talent normally devoted to growth industries.                     A) Technology Loser 12/21/2018; B) Military Economy Direct 3/6/2017; C) Nature of Military Spending 7/2/2016; D) Key Public Peace Economics 3/5/2016; E) War Occupy Economics 5/8/2015; F) Trade and the Military 1/17/2014;
  6. Regional Impact of Military Spending. All regions pay the military taxes, but only certain regions benefit from the spending, while other regions suffer recession from the tax drain. When the military is cut, the winners and losers switch places.  The low military regions boom and the high military regions suffer.                           A) Military in Society 12/28/2018; B) Military Geography 8/7/2017; C) Senate Power Republicans 7/31/2017; D) Rigged Electoral College 11/26/2016; E) Regional Military Economy 2/1/2015; F) Elections Plus 11/13/2014; G) Military States 4/26/2014; H) Key Midwest 1/21/2014;
  7. Military Spending Politics. Study of military build-ups and build-downs shows that the power positions in congress share the military budget with the president’s home state. All presidents elected during the Cold War came from high military spending states, thanks to fundraising and foreign focus advantages in those states.  A) Dictatorship Playbook 5/9/2019; B) You Think Its Okay 3/30/2019; C) Milwaukee Socials 3/26/2019; D) Power Corrupts 8/26/2018; E) Trump Russia Fire Fury 1/14/2018; F) Russia Hack Election 12/12/2016; G) Total War Politics 12/8/2016; H) Hillary Critics 2/27/2016; I) Walker Work Dignity 2/28/2015; J) Military Money Power 8/10/2014.
  8. Military Kondratiev Model. The model is based on military spending driving the economy down and deficits lifting the economy up. With those adjustments, the US, German, and world economy all follow a Kondratiev sine wave of 54 years, perfecting the fit every Juglar investment cycle of about nine years.                           A) Process Peace Economics 3/26/2016; B) Technical Peace Economics 3/12/2016; C) Create Economic Model 2/14/2015.
  9. Defense Strategy. Timing is everything. With major wars coming every fifty years or so, eroding the economy with too high military spending too soon and for too long will leave the nation weak for the next major war.   A) Reduce War System 4/2/2018; B) Peace Security Economy 1/1/2018; C) Military Defense 12/5/2015; D) Peace Hard Sell 11/7/2015; E) Leadership Ethics 9/18/2015; F) Fear of the Unknown 4/12/2015; G) Worthless War 1/23/2015; H) Paris Terror 1/8/2015; I) Wargames 4/5/2014.
  10. Power Elite. Many corporate directors sit on both a major bank board and a major military contractor board. This helps explain the unholy alliance between business and the military. The press has similar overlap with the intelligence agencies.          A) Idle Money Devil’s Workshop 1/29/2019; B) How Right Wing Controls USA 7/8/2018; C) Plot to Destroy America 7/3/2018; D) Conspiracy Theory 6/14/2018; E) Media Influence CIA 5/28/2018; F) CIA Live History 4/16/2016; G) National Security State 11/22/2015.
  11. Stock Market. Almost two months after the Republicans took over congress in 1994 you could have bought a cross section of major military stocks and still received an average gain of 70% eighteen months later.   A) Disruption of 8 Industries 5/22/2019; B) High Interest 11/11/2016; C) Class Warfare 10/18/2016; D) Trade Wars 6/18/2016; E) Banking and the Military 1/2/2014.
  12. Future. The future is fairly predictable. High military nations will lose share of the world economy and low military nations will gain share of the world economy.  The major nations experiences both during and after the Cold War are readily explained by their military spending levels.                A) Future President 4/23/2016; B) Useful Peace Economics 1/16/2016; C) Animal Peace Economics 12/28/2015; D) Economic Conversion 7/3/2015; E) Turkeys of the Arboretum 5/31/2015; F) Education Peace Economics 4/19/2015; G) World Governance 2/7/2015.
  13. Summary Broad. The expertise used and paradigm shifts required to understand this interdisciplinary approach to understanding America in the world today. A brief review of the major understandings employed in this approach.        A) Architecture Peace Economics 4/30/2019; B) Valuable Peace Economics 10/1/2018; C) Good Concepts Update 5/13/2018; D) Middle Year Empire Update 7/16/2017; E) Reuschlein World 6/13/2015; F) Capitalism or Empire 11/23/2014. G) Real Peace Economics or Not 6/7/2014
  14. Summary Possibilities. This section reviews how different interest groups ought to view and use this research with their constituencies. Also takes a look at how warming cooling and cycle theory affect the climate issues of today.   A) Spectrum Peace Economy 9/21/2018; B) Great Reads Make 5/6/2018; C) Constitutional Military Cost 3/4/2018; D) Terror Cost to Society 2/25/2018; E) Changing World Views 10/8/2017; F) Hottest Downloads 4/14/2017; G) Communicate Peace Economics 2/20/2016; H) Invade Next 2/13/2016; I) Empire Research Lost 1/25/2015; J) Record Month Peace Economics 1/14/2014; K) New Class Curriculum 1/7/2014; L) Misguided Liberals and Conservatives 1/5/2014.
  15. Military Economics Summary A) Findings Claims 11/16/2017; B) Wargamer to Peace 7/2/2017; C) Wargaming Gygax 3/31/2017; D) Peace Politics 1/9/2016; E) Peace Economics the Only Way 10/10/2015; F) Military Dis-Economics 11/3/2014; G) 10 Military Domestic Effects 9/15/2014; H) Proof of Peace Economics 7/12/2014; I) Next Generation Economics 12/30/2013.
  16. Introduction to Climate Theory                                                                                          A) Cycle Matters 8/3/2014; B) Cycle Crucial 2/24/2014
  17. Civilization and Climate History. The last three thousand years have shown a pattern of civilizations rising and falling with temperature changes in the Mediterranean Sea area. As temperatures rose more Northerly civilizations thrived and as temperatures fell more Southerly civilizations thrived.  A) Great Pivot Climate 2/19/2019; B) Egypt to Britain Climate Change 1/24/2014
  18. Evaporation and Water. Worldwide, 85% of solar radiation is used to evaporate water, higher over ocean and lower over land. This causes many complex land ocean interactions and makes the water cycle dominant over the temperature cycle. A) 10 Evaporation Impacts 9/22/2014; B) Evaporation 7/19/2014.
  19. World Weather. The largest land mass on the planet dominates the worlds weather in many ways, with half the world’s land in the Eurasia North Africa part of the Northern hemisphere. North America acts as a backwater to that Sahara Siberia dominated system.            A) Land Ocean Cycle 7/30/2016.
  20. Weather Cycle. With land three times as sensitive to temperature changes as the ocean, long cycles of major droughts, floods, volcanoes, earthquakes, hurricanes and blizzards can be documented in US weather. The Earth cycle pattern and causes are discussed.    A) Hurricane Planet Dynamics 9/10/2017; B) Texas Harvey 8/27/2017; C) Prediction 8/26/2014; D) Hurricane Climate Cycle 2/7/2014; E) Philippines Typhoon 11/12/2013; F) Typhoon Haiyan 11/11/2013.
  21. World Correlations. Various regions of the globe respond to other regions as the world goes through the long cycle. We look in greater detail into the oddities of world weather systems under changing circumstances.                                                  A) Earth Cycle 3/21/2014; B) Cold Winter 2/14/2014.
  22. Volcanoes. Major volcanoes cool the earth for two or three years after eruption. Warming spurts can set the stage for major eruptions and carbon dioxide releases by major volcanoes can be very significant.           A) Nepal Chile 4/28/2015; B) Chile Volcano 4/24/2015.
  23. Climate and the Economy. Various research and observations about the relationship between warming and poor economies and cooling and strong economies. Looking at personal, worldwide, and United States models of this phenomena. A) 10 Ways Heat Hurts 9/8/2014; B) Climate and Economics 12/3/2013.
  24. Kondratiev Cycle. Looking at the climate, generational theory, and innovation models of explanation for the long cycle. Also looking at population, life cycle, and skepticism about these models. A) Kondratiev Cycle 2/9/2014
  25. Economic Cycle. Looking at the various markers of economic extremes that support the theory of a long cycle in economics. Including growth rates, inflation, interest rates, stock market crashes, and unemployment.                                                A) History Repeats 3/20/2014
  26. War Cycle. Examines the record, especially for American wars, and reasons to explain the regularity of the war cycle. Even the irregularities and lesser wars tend to support certain common-sense notions.                                                                          A) Rights Climate Cycle 10/30/2018; B) Demonization Fuels Military 4/8/2018; C) Gun Control March 3/26/2018; D) Violence Cycle 11/29/2015; E) Baltimore Riot 5/2/2015; F) Gestalt 1961-2015 1/17/2015; G) 10 Ferguson Jury Mistakes 12/6/2014; H) War Cycle 11/16/2014; I) Democracy Ukraine US 9/1/2014; J) Civil Rights 3/29/2014; K) Cold Year Wars 12/19/2013.
  27. Greenhouse Effect. Examines the global warming and US warming records and various theories of manmade impacts, including the emerging consensus of the IPCC report in February 2007.            A) Climate Theory Clarified 7/27/2018
  28. Green Economy. How are the Kyoto Treaties and business reactions leading the world into the necessary changes. What are the trends in these changes?
  29. Warming Summary; A) Three Cycles Or One 9/17/2017; B) Weather Wealth Wars 1/11/2017; C) 15 Year Pause 4/12/2014.
  30. Scientific Revolution; A) Foreign Domestic Difference 4/23/2019; B) Interdisciplinary Insights 1/21/2018; C) Scientific Methods Vary 12/10/2017; D) Teaching Peace Econ 9/4/2017; E) Math Reductio Ad Absurdum 7/9/2017; F) Peace Science 1/21/2017; G) Many Go Wrong 9/24/2016; H) Paradigm Shifts Peace Economics 4/30/2016; I) Scientific Revolutions 4/2/2016; J) Shoulders of Giants 10/31/2015; K) First Gandhi 10/17/2015; L) Difficulty Along Way 6/20/2015; M) Economic Engineering 6/5/2015; N) Macro Micro 4/4/2015; O) 10 Scientific Revolution Facts 12/21/2014; P) 10 How Research Works 10/19/2014; Q) Reputation 8/24/2014; R) Peace Economics: How I Did It 6/21/2014; S) Numbers Words 1/30/2014; T) Peace Economics Peace Studies 1/9/2014.
  31. Nobel Peace Prize; A) Systemic Review 2/26/2019; B) Follow Norwegians 10/8/2018; C) Nobel Peace Year 10/1/2017; D) Odds on Nobel Prize 6/12/2017; E) Biography Peace 1/28/2017; F) Econ Perversion 12/29/2016; G) Nobel Prize Path 12/16/2016; H) Nobel Prize Letter 10/5/2016; I) Nobel Prize Watch 3/19/2016; J) Response Norway 2/6/2016; K) Nobel Peace Nominee 1/27/2016; L) 10 Nobel Pathways 10/25/2014.
  32. Biography; A) Great Gygax, Maybe Britain 6/18/2017; B) Congratulations 5/22/2017; C) Game Master Gygax 5/14/2017; D) Telos Institute 5/5/2017; E) Creative Life 4/22/2017; F) Nerd Number One 3/18/2017; G) Special Award   9/2/2016; H) Denmark Hamlet 8/20/2016; I) Peace Respect 1/31/2016; J) Learn in Japan 9/5/2015; K) Hiroshima Feature 7/18/2015; L) Film Made Peace Economics 6/27/2015; M) Nader Yale Data 5/24/2015; N) Top 10 Reasons for Radio Host 11/5/2014; O) Global Citizen Nomination 6/28/2014; P) Wargamer to Doctor Peace 5/30/2014; Q) Nashville 5/25/2014; R) Eugene Politician 5/14/2014; S) Doctorate 5/9/2014; T) No Ethanol 5/2/2014; U) Peace Economics 1st Course 3/18/2014; V) Peace Economics First Book 3/14/2014; W) How Peace Economics Starts 3/8/2014; X) Grandpa Markham Horicon Marsh 3/1/2014; Y) Peace Songs 1/12/2014; Z) Dr. Robert Reuschlein 10/10/2013.

For additional information about this see:

https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages_2015

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 29), “Empire Climate 32 Chapters” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Empire-Climate-32-Chapters,2019181359.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 60 in 8 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019. Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Disruption of 8 Industries

Overview

Adoption of the new Reuschlein sciences of economics, empire theory, and the global warming cycle will change everything, especially disrupting certain industries and many fields.  Here is a partial list.

Economic Development

Proofs over many decades, the Cold War, the twentieth century, and now the twenty-first century 9-11 military buildup, Great Recession, and Obama Trump recovery show continuous proof that military spending increases hurt manufacturing, productivity, capital investment, and economic and jobs growth rates precisely and in every situation.  Bottom line research and capital resources of a nation can be used to grow the economy and produce goods or be diverted into power projection through military spending, but the choice is binary, one avenue leads to economic growth and the other leads to lost manufacturing jobs transferred over to the defense service “make work” economy instead to give a false impression of economic growth.  In fact, the “make work” economy depresses manufacturing states in order to give pseudo-growth to military spending states, as research and capital are merely redeployed among the states using the federal budget process.  The result is re-arranged economic growth in an atmosphere of overall reduced growth.  This pattern can be supplemented by deficit or tax cut economic growth to camouflage or offset the negative military economy effect.  Changes in deficit minus military change the economic growth rate.  Measured in economic growth rate, jobs growth rate, or unemployment rate change all work about the same, relative to trend.

Economic Prediction

The uncanny accuracy long term of the Reuschlein economic model shows up increasingly clearly over time, as annual poor accuracy becomes more accurate like the decade long Juglar cycle accuracy over time.  The in between years in a nine-year Juglar investment cycle show an 80% reduction in volatility from the twenties to the eighties as industries gradually conquer the inventory recessions so common before 1980.  Now recessions since 1982 in America have followed the nine-year Juglar cycle, 1982, 1991, 2001, and 2009.  Trade war might give the next recession in 2020, just as trade war gave us the Great Depression in the early thirties.  Withdrawal from Iraq military cuts lead to unemployment rate reductions in the five years from 2011 to 2015 at almost twice the rate of the military buildup years from 2016 to 2018.  The current formula looks like accuracy is now coming in the annual year by year situation, not just in the decade long Juglar cycle.  The new short-term formula:  deficits add to economic growth and military spending reduces economic growth, dollar for dollar.

Political Prediction   

Because there is nothing in the federal government budget like military spending.  It is the largest category of expense in the authorized budget, about half of the total.  Most of the rest of the budget is entitlements or otherwise relatively fixed in distribution among the states.  During the Cold War 80% of the variation of per capita federal spending in each state was caused by the military spending differences, with about half the states getting half the national average of military spending per capita, and the other half getting 150% of the national average for the military.  This makes those who control the military budget the most powerful people in congress, along with the president.  These people not only dominate the leadership positions in congress (80% from high military states and 20% from low military states, but they also dominate the presidential primaries and general election, such that high military state candidates won all eleven Cold War elections and the seven major party nominees from low military spending states all lost.  Post Cold War the two Democratic presidents came from CIA backgrounds and low military spending states.  Military research funding is in the top three states of California, Massachusetts, and North Carolina, with Silicon Valley, Route 128, and Research Triangle respectively.  California has four times that of the other two.  Post Cold War the top research institution went from MIT to Johns Hopkins, from weapons to foreign policy, with the increase in the CIA noted in the elected presidents.

Social Mobility Prediction   

Large military spending will devastate manufacturing over time, changing a technology-oriented economy (manufacturing) into a services-oriented economy (financial and defense).  This state of empire created also dries up social mobility creating a class-based society.  I notice this all the time as increasingly elites from media, Hollywood, and government are the sons and daughters of previous elites.  High growth encourages diversity and low growth (military empire) encourages classism and nepotism.  Markets are fluid, political command is rigid.

National Defense Strategy

The military economic effect is so dominant in economics that those nations that overdo military defense will pay a very heavy price in the long run.  Minimizing your defense maximizes your growth and maximizes great power longevity.  The heavy-handed empire defense will always backfire in the long run.  Lightweight English bows and arrows defeated the heavy armored French in the battle of Agincourt.  Land armies are always much more expensive than navies, because they are essential for all land powers.  Sea powers are protected from land armies by large bodies of water, like the English Channel, or the Japan Sea, or America’s two oceans, hence they can defend more cheaply.

Investment Predictions

Changes in the military budget affect the low military inland Great Lakes area manufacturing states even more than their direct effect on military states, about two to four times as much.  But because this effect is not obvious, the inland manufacturing states are largely at the mercy of the coastal military states.  Because of the preference for military spending in the Republican party and for domestic spending in the Democratic party, changes in political parties controlling congress will have profound changes in regional economies.  This was so overlooked in 1994 that you could have waited two months to invest in defense stocks and still made a 70% profit a year and a half later.  Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio are four of the top five manufacturing states that will boom the next time military spending goes down.  California, Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia, and Arizona are traditional high military spending states that boom during military buildups.  In the four decades since the top tax rate was dropped 60% by Reagan in 1981-1984, banks have grown their relative share of the economy ten-fold and the top 1% income earners have quadrupled their share of national income while the lower 99% have flat lined.  All these effects are predictable outcomes of empire economics.

Climate Change Predictions

The Greenhouse Effect is all the rage while we ignore the evaporation effect.  Modifying Greenhouse predictions with the evaporation effect 54-year cycle and we greatly increase temperature change prediction accuracy.  Current climate change estimates are being underestimated because we are in the cooling half of the cycle from 1998 to 2025.  Climate change will dramatically accelerate after 2025, catching the experts by surprise.

Hurricane Predictions

Every other generation floods and droughts are regionally predictable, as well as blizzards.  Major volcanoes tend to come from the tropical area where the Indian and Pacific Oceans meet.  But the greatest opportunities for cyclic prediction of natural events are in the hurricane area.  New Orleans, Miami, North Carolina, and New York each have their own unique regional cyclic pattern.  These repeat mostly on a 54-year cycle basis plus or minus a couple years.  However, North Carolina and Miami have 27-year repetitions give or take a year or two.  Regularization of this approach could give greater reliability for protection of these communities.

The Seventeen Findings of Peace Economic Theories:  https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 22), “Disruption of 8 Industries” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Disruption-of-8-Industries,2019181131.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 57 in 8 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.        Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Dictatorship Playbook Trump

Nature of Trump

Trump is a conman and promoter extraordinaire.  Having set the American record for tax losses from 1985-1994 at $1.16 Billion he is obviously not a great businessman or entrepreneur, with his success ensured with $400 million from his dad (in today’s dollars).  He is probably not a Billionaire either.  His documented 10,000 lies in office show that he repeats a lie until is accepted as fact by the following that he started with thanks to his long running show “The Apprentice”.   He admires and believes Putin over his own 17 intelligence agencies making him either an unwitting or witting asset of the former KGB chief, far beyond the useful idiot stage of some of his entourage.  He admires other dictators around the world and disparages democratic leaders around the world, preferring the strongman bully over the weak.  Having laundered Russian money through the sale of 600 condos (at a guess of $250,000 each that would be about $150 million dollars) and with the prospect of $300 million from a Trump Tower in Moscow, he is heavily financially ingratiated to the Russians. Russian President Putin is the leader of the Russian kleptocrats known as oligarchs.  Here are a few of Trump’s favorite tools, with the number of Dr. Lawrence Britt’s list of fascist characteristics in parenthesis after each of the main tools.  Nationalism (1), National Security (7), Militarism (4), Sexism (5), Crime and Punishment (12) and Fraudulent Elections (14) are all aspects of fascism in the Trump playbook.

Control of Mass Media (#6)

Thomas Jefferson said that he would rather have a free press than free elections, because with a free press one could gain elections, but without a free press elections are meaningless.  As a master manipulator Trump uses his direct connection to 24 million Twitter followers and 16 million Facebook followers to reeducate his base and then uses that base to control the Republicans in congress who do not want to be “primary-ed” out of office.  Personal loyalty is his god, above all else.  Fox News is willing to play along and be the state media of the dictator.  Trump uses the common dictator’s tactic of calling news he doesn’t like “fake news” and then openly lying with some whopper that paints him in a good light.

Disdain for Constitutional Law (not listed)

In a monarchy, the king is law.  In a constitutional democracy, the law is king.  No one is above the law, but thanks to endless branding in his tweets and supported by Fox News, Trump negatively brands anyone who dares to oppose him and rewards those who support him.  He has called the Mueller probe a witch hunt at least 170 times.  He now has the whole Republican establishment behind him starting with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Judiciary Chair Lindsey Graham, hence he is determined to be “above the law”.  Over 900 former prosecutors of both parties have claimed that the 10 or so instances of obstruction of justice in the Mueller Report would be charged against Trump if he were not a president.  He has repeatedly downgraded the judiciary, the FBI, Robert Mueller, and the CIA.  Now he is stonewalling 81 subpoenas and any testimony at all.

Scapegoats and Enemies as a Unifying Cause (#3)

Trump’s first campaign pledge was to build a wall against Mexican immigrants who he claimed were criminals, and one of his first acts in office was to try and ban Muslims from coming to America.  Then there was Charlottesville Virginia where Trump tried to exonerate Nazi’s and their protesters as “nice people on both sides”.  White nationalists have openly embraced Trump as one of their own.

Rampant Cronyism and Corruption (#13)

Campaigning against the “swamp” in Washington DC Trump has set a modern record for corrupt and indicted appointees to his cabinet, compared to none of that kind for Obama.  After refusing to divest himself of his holdings, he has welcomed things like the Saudi’s booking over a thousand hotel nights in his Trump hotel near the White House.  His inauguration also lavishly paid his hotel for meals and stays for various guests.  He even joined in a Saudi blockade of Dubai until they relented and granted a mortgage for his son in law’s building and main asset at 666 5th Ave. in New York.  China gave financing for a Trump project in Indonesia and got favorable treatment for a Chinese company affected by tariffs.

Putin’s Apprentice (not listed)

The secrecy around his meetings with Putin is such that he asked for the translator’s notes and promptly destroyed them after one meeting.  Helsinki was a disaster where he stood side by side with Putin and contradicted the 17 US intelligence agencies and the Mueller 31 Russian indictments openly doubting that the Russians interfered with the 2016 election.  After firing Comey, he met alone with the Russians in the Oval Office and their transcript is the record of his boasting that the Russian hoax was behind him.  He is grateful to Putin for putting him in office, and Manafort gave the Russians 75 pages of campaign information to guide them in their targeting along with the target states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Only Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were targeted on the gun issue according to Young Mie Kim of UW Madison journalism school.  Those two states were heavily saturated with ads more than any other states.  The social media of the 73 Russian sites combined with 200 other independent sites and super Pac sites often posted the same exact material at the same exact time, so there was coordination between Trump allies and the Russians that Mueller failed to pick up on.  One book has already come out alleging that Trump is Putin’s Apprentice and freeing Russian Oligarch Deripaska from sanctions is just one of many strange pro-Russian acts by Trump and he never says anything bad about Putin personally.  This when Trump castigates nearly everyone else around him, friend or foe, at some time or other.

Command Interference (not listed)

Abuse of power includes examples of what the military calls “command interference” when an investigation is pressured into a result higher ups in the chain of command want.  Examples include the anger of Trump when he fired Comey that acting FBI director McCabe let Comey return to Washington DC on a government plane.  Trump wanted to strand Comey in California and force him to return on commercial aircraft after being fired.  Another example includes the haste to fire McCabe 48 hours before he would have been vested in his pension, with the command interference influencing the investigation that claimed McCabe had acted with “less than full candor” about a call to the media he did as part of his job.  McCabe claims he was confused by the question and came back immediately with a clarification that would have exonerated him.  Another example of command interference is making Rosenstein agree to Barr’s weird interpretation of how a president can’t be guilty of obstruction of justice for performing a constitutional act with corrupt purpose.  Barr may have ended the Mueller probe before it could fully and properly finish to avoid looking into the counterintelligence part of the probe, which is not in the Mueller Report.

Dear Future US President Letter:

https://www.academia.edu/32905059/DEAR_FUTURE_US_PRESIDENT_Spring_2016_3_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 9), “Dictatorship Playbook Trump” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Dictatorship-Playbook-Trump,2019180677.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 52 in 7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Architecture Peace Economy

Putting Dominoes in Order

The first domino of military spending shows a perfect inverse relationship with manufacturing productivity growth for the seven largest industrialized capitalist country economies during the Cold War.  The second domino uses capital investment versus military spending from 1960-80, and perfects for the four largest NATO economies plus Sweden.  One finding says military spending is lost manufacturing and the other says it is lost capital investment.  That is virtually the same message when you understand that most capital investment goes into manufacturing.  That the manufacturing is stronger and broader suggest a variability in financial investment.  The third domino is federal government deficit with the large-scale experiment of World War Two 1941-48 proving the basic point that deficits lift the economy as much as military spending depresses the economy.

Connections to First Domino

The first domino of military spending and the economy is so stunning that the next thing to do is to put the idea to the test as many ways and in as many major academic fields as possible.  The first major test was to build an accurate long-term model in the United States economy.  This was easily the toughest first big test and took about six months of work with hundred-year long data sets of economic statistics including dozens of various multi-year averaging’s to find the turning points in history.  The fourth domino is from the obvious economic boom of the fifties and sixties, the Kondratiev Wave of long-term booms and busts.  Detailed modeling using a 54 year cycle showed annual variability on domino one (manufacturing productivity growth rate) net of domino three (deficit).  Then the next stunner was how the variability disappeared every nine or so years into perfection again.  This was domino five, the Juglar investment cycle of 8-10 years.  The basic model was also roughly confirmed in partial modeling on the German and world economies.

Foreign Policy Connections

Foreign policy is built around the idea that you need a strong economy and military to be a dominant power in the world.  But most social science modeling mistakenly assumes a strong military can lead to a strong economy.  The first domino shows this is a false assumption.  Then I devoted a chapter in my first book Peace Economics (1986) to studying the implications of the economy versus military power trade-off, producing two curves, one arithmetic and one geometric to help decide the proper trade-offs for short term and long-term wars.  The key point is the new Reuschlein model and information points to a “necessary substantial reduction in armies” required of all countries that wish to defend their country well in the coming decades before and during the next war.  This domino includes an assessment of when major wars occur, which brings us back to the fourth domino of the Kondratiev Wave 54-year cycle between major wars which come about 18 years after second biggest wars of a cycle.  This is domino six the change in defense strategy all nations must undergo with the new reality.

Domestic Connections and the Empire Model

Domino seven is the relationship between the military and politics.  The more military per capita of a home state, the more powerful is the politician representing that state.  In all eleven elections of the Cold War, Presidents came from home states in the high military spending half of America.  This bias looks about 80% true for leading political positions like congressional leadership, cabinet members, and Supreme Court appointees.  Domino eight is the relationship between the military budget and the local state and regional economies.  Domestically military spending merely transfers resources between the manufacturing heavy states and the military spending heavy states.  Overall military buildups depress manufacturing jobs and investments to transfer those productive resources into national defense services.  Domino nine is the relationship between military spending and murder and crime rates.  As the economy goes down crime goes up and real estate markets get corrupted leading to financial crises.  Domino ten is the connection between the military and income inequality, low social mobility, low mental health, high teen birthrates, high obesity, and the many other social indicators (such as escapism, gambling and drugs) of a declining empire.  Declining empires are frustrating places for the citizens.  Challenger nations rise on low military spending and after they become empires, decline on high military spending.

Environmental Connections and Global Warming Cycle

Domino eleven come from a three-year effort (1988-1991) to connect the 54-year cycle to its natural roots.  After endlessly poring over 16 century long data sets of the major sections of the planet Earth, I gradually saw how it all fit together in a great pattern.  27 years of warming weakens the economies of the world followed by 27 years of cooling boosting the economies of the world.  Major volcanoes, blizzards, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and wars and social upheavals like riots and social movements all follow the great cycle in its natural, economic, and political dimensions.  Evaporation slows the warming process such that oceans are the coolest and lands warm three times faster than oceans before all the feedback loops kick in creating the cycle.  Droughts peak in the last decade of the warming phase followed by a decade of heavy floods in the first decade of the cooling phase.  2025 is the end of the current cooling (slower warming) phase and global warming will redouble its efforts after that year.  Look out!  Hurricane Sandy (2012) led to a stunning confirmation of the accuracy of this cycle.

Presentation at the American Association of Geographers 4-7-19:

https://www.academia.edu/38937971/Military_Geography_16ppt_on_2_pages_4-7-19

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, April 30), “Architecture Peace Economy” Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Architecture-Peace-Economy,2019180316.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 49 in 7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Foreign Domestic Difference

Separating Foreign and Domestic Policy

The third element (Chapter 4 Territorial States) in “Geopolitics” textbook by John Agnew 1998-2003, makes a common assumption in the social sciences that foreign affairs and domestic policy can safely be considered separate.  Separating the two is impossible under the Peace Economics theory.  When the single most important obstruction to economic growth is military spending, all foreign policy must choose between a strong domestic economy and strong projection of power internationally.  That is the fundamental flaw in all empires, leading to the decline of empires in the long run.  Coercion may have some positive feedbacks in the short run and being at the top may attract talent from all over the world, but high military spending will corrupt the economy and drive up crime and corruption and create an unhealthy society (what I call empire decay) that will stall progress across the board in the long run.  Military spending is at the heart of both the domestic and foreign policy situations.

 

Peace Dividend  

Many people believe and even teach that the United States did not experience a “Peace Dividend” after the end of the Cold War.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  It’s true that the shift came over time, with the military budget from 1985 to 1999 pretty much level at $250 billion a year.  But a detailed look shows that inflation was high in the beginning of that period and low at the end.  The percent of GDP for the military was 6.5% at the start and 2.9% by the end of that period, with tremendous prosperity especially in the low military industrial heartland Great Lakes states of the North Central area known as the Midwest.  National economic growth rates doubled (Peace Dividend) from the Reagan military buildup eighties to the post-Cold War nineties, but regionally the Bi-Coastal economy (Atlantic Seaboard plus California) showed much less change:  leading the way in the low growth eighties, thanks to 80% of the military buildup going there, and trailing the low military high manufacturing states of the Big Ten football conference in the nineties boom.  Only the third great economic force, the Kondratiev Wave of technology and generational growth, made both the boom and balanced budgets possible by the end of the nineties, only to be squandered by the Iraq War.  California had four times the military research of any other state in the eighties but is now just an average military spending state.  California has America’s two main ideas industries, Silicon Valley and Hollywood and a huge young talent migration from the East.  Still as seven of the ten wealthiest counties in America are in the greater Washington DC area, power and wealth have gravitated to the most militarize area of America over the decades.  Not knowing what causes what allows cases to be made for many false and misleading half-baked theories. The patient thoroughness of an engineer has unearthed the meaningful verities in economics and the global warming cycle.

 

Corruptions of Empire  

Choose your enemies well, for soon you will be like them.  If Islamic extremists have gone off the deep end, so too has American domestic and foreign politics under Trump.  Marginal issues rise like illegal immigration that had been at record lows until the recent turmoil in Central America.  Focusing on taking sides in the Shia Sunni struggles looks small minded for the leading superpower as are the endless faceless drone campaigns across the Muslim world.  Stirring up chaos and meddling everywhere inevitably will boomerang.  The endless hate campaign of the president’s twitter storms is wearing people out across America.  The president’s tirades against the press, legal institutions, truth, law, and anyone with a different opinion look like the moves of a third world dictator, not the leader of a great democracy.  The president has abandoned his many pledges to the middle class and installed a swamp region of favoritism for the rich and powerful.  Now the Mueller report comes out with a shocking list of endless misbehavior.  Corruption has become the norm thanks to the conman from New York.  The title of one of the many books is “Everything Trump Touches Dies.”  Comparisons with Caligula, the crazy emperor of Rome, seem to fit so well.

 

Seventeen great conclusions of the Reuschlein Theories:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, April 23), “Foreign Domestic Difference” Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Foreign-Domestic-Difference,2019180102.aspx

 

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 47 in 7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

You Might Think It’s Okay

Thursday March 28, 2019 the US House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff was asked by the Nine Republicans on that committee to resign.  He gave a response for the ages not unlike the House Army McCarthy hearings in May 1956 when Senator McCarthy was finally brought down for his overreach with the comment “Have You No Shame.”  Schiff’s retort “You Might Think It’s Okay” may be the new rallying cry to Trump’s “Roy Cohn” Attorney General William Barr’s latest attempt to whitewash the Trump Russia compromise.  Here is the text of this famous exchange in the United States House of Representatives:

Representative Michael Conaway (R) Texas Intelligence Committee: “We have no faith in your ability to discharge your duties in a manner consistent with your constitutional responsibility and urge your immediate resignation as chairman of the committee.  Mr. Chairman this letter is signed by all nine members of the Republican side of the House on the committee.”

Representative Adam Schiff (D) California Intelligence Committee Chair: “My colleagues may think its okay that the Russians offered dirt on a Democratic candidate for president as part of what was described as the Russian government effort to help the Trump campaign.  You might think that’s okay.  My colleagues might think its okay, that when that was offered to the son of the president, who had a pivotal role in the campaign, that the president’s son did not call the FBI, he did not adamantly refuse that foreign help, no instead that son said that he would love the help of the Russians.  You might think its okay that he took that meeting.  You might think it’s okay that Paul Manafort, the campaign chair, someone with great experience to run a campaign, also took that meeting. You might think it’s okay that the president’s son in law also took that meeting.  You might think it’s okay that they concealed it from the public.  You might think it’s okay that the only disappointment from that meeting was that the dirt on Hillary Clinton wasn’t better.  You might think that’s okay.  You might think it’s okay, that when it was discovered a year later, they then lied about that meeting, said it was about adoption.  You might think that the president helped dictate that lie.  You might think that’s okay, I don’t.  You might think it’s okay that the campaign chairman of a presidential campaign would offer information about that campaign to a Russian oligarch in exchange for money or debt forgiveness.  You might think it’s okay, I don’t.  You might think it’s okay that that campaign chairman offered polling data, campaign polling data to someone linked to Russian intelligence. I don’t think that’s okay.  You might think it’s okay that the president himself called on Russia to hack his opponent’s emails, if they were listening.  You might think it’s okay that later that day the Russians attempted to hack a server affiliated with that campaign.  I don’t think that’s okay.

You might think it’s okay that the president’s son in law sought to establish a secret back channel of communications to the Russians through a Russian diplomatic facility.  I don’t think that’s okay.  You might think it’s okay that an associate of the president made direct contact with the GRU through Guccifer 2.0 and wiki-leaks that is considered a hostile intelligence agency.  You might think it’s okay that a senior campaign official was instructed to reach that associate and find out what that hostile intelligence agency had to say in terms of dirt on his opponent.  You might think its okay that the National Security Advisor designate secretly conferred with the Russian ambassador about undermining US sanctions and you might think it’s okay that he lied about it to the FBI.  You might say that’s all okay, that’s just what you need to do to win.  But I don’t think it’s okay, I think its immoral, I think it’s unethical, unpatriotic, and yes, I think its corrupt, and evidence of collusion.  Now I have always said, that whether this amounts to conspiracy was another matter.  Whether the Special Counsel could prove beyond a reasonable doubt of that crime would be up to the Special Counsel, and I would accept his decision, and I do.  He is a good and honorable man and a good prosecutor.  But I do not think that conduct criminal or not is okay.  And the day we do think that is okay is the day we look back and say America has lost its way.

And I will tell you one more thing that is apropos of the hearing today.  I don’t think it’s okay that during a presidential campaign Mr. Trump sought the Kremlin’s help to consummate a real estate deal in Moscow that would make him a fortune.  According to Special Counsel hundreds of millions of dollars.  I don’t think it’s okay to lie and conceal it from the public.  I don’t think it’s okay to advocate a new and more favorable policy to the Russians even as he was seeking the Kremlin’s help to make money.  I don’t think it’s okay to instruct his attorney to lie to our committee.  There is a different word for that than collusion, and its called compromise.  And   that is the subject of our hearing today.”

Relevance to Peace Economics:

The corruption of the empire society plutocracy has become obvious to most in America.  Reagan with his military buildup, making the rich almost tax free, union busting, and killing the equal time provision of the media, has let the oligarchy gain control over America at the expense of the middle class which has been falling steadily further behind since that 1980 election mistake.  The suggested reading below “Rankism and Dignity” offers a different vision of inclusion instead of the Trump politics of exclusion and conning people with 9179 documented lies in Trump presidency (Washington Post).

Rankism and the Dignity Society (second most popular on academia last month):

https://www.academia.edu/11020728/RANKISM_and_DIGNITY_Robert_Fuller_Concept_1_p._2006

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, March 30), “You Might Think It’s Okay” Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/You-Might-Think-It’s-Okay,2019179302.aspx

 

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double that of last year 38 in 6 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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