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Scientific Methods Variety

What is the scientific method? 

According to Google these are the seven steps of the scientific method:

  • Make an observation.
  • Conduct research.
  • Form hypothesis.
  • Test hypothesis.
  • Record data.
  • Draw conclusion.
  • Replicate.

How is it used in the social sciences compared to the hard sciences?

The hard sciences like physics and chemistry follow the scientific method more closely, more traditionally, more quantitatively.  The social sciences are usually looking for more nuance and focus on proceeding from a scholastic literature review of previous work in the field of choice.  So they are starting with the “form hypotheses” or questions stage after a literature review, the third step in this process as described by Google on 11-29-17.  Only then do they proceed with the more basic research approach with the first two steps of observation and conducting research.  This is more of a qualitative approach than the more quantitatively oriented basic research approach of the hard sciences which follows in the same order of the Google approach.  The basis for most social science work is the APA standard of the American Psychological Association.  The social sciences have a bias and assumption that they reflect the complexity and diversity of the human species and human civilization, hence psychology sets the standard.  As one sociology professor once told me, a correlation of 0.30 is significant, and perfect fits are inherently suspect.  This is very different from the basic research approach of the hard sciences, where the last step, replication, is expected to be exact.  Close is considered good enough for the social sciences where ambiguity of results is expected to resemble the diversity of the human experience.

How is it used in economics? 

Nobel prize winner in 1973 economics sciences, laureate Wassily Leontief, has said that 97% of the economics literature consists of articles about other people’s articles, and 2.5% is for model building and 0.5% is basic research.  So when Robert Reuschlein pursues modeling and basic research as his primary focus he is already outside of the mainstream.  Economics History Society co-founder R. H. Tawney, rejecting the Marshallian economics of his day, asserted that “There is no such thing as a science of economics, nor ever will be.”  This remains the common belief of the average economist today.  See “The Nobel Factor” subtitled “The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy and the Market Turn” by Avner Offer and Gabriel Soderberg (2016), and reviewed by Jim Tomlinson (2016).  These views are furthered by the department head’s views when I was admitted to the University of Oregon Economics Doctoral Program.  His view was the starting with the data was cheating, that the reasonable hypothesis must come first.  This makes sense if you are constructing econometric models of fifty some “three or four variable” equations, because the degrees of freedom with make the results meaningless.  This doesn’t make sense for a three factor elegant scientific sixty year model such as created by Robert Reuschlein. Following the elegant basic truths of the hard science methodology is completely different from the traditional social science methodology, where 97% of the economic literature is perfectly happy to do.

Does peer review help or hinder scientific revolutions? 

Peer Review can easily lead to the situation where new ideas can be considered inappropriate, as has often happened to a colleague of mine that has repeatedly offered new path breaking articles in emerging new fields.  I find this in my own work on Peace I can leave the crowd so stunned they do not know where to begin with questions.  This is very frustrating so I have turned to blogging in an effort to simplify the material enough to make partial progress.  The wordy diversity junkies of the social sciences simply do not have the patience to follow the systematic building of a long string of engineering steps that lead to a physics like solid conclusion.  Some have called me “dry” as I carefully seek to clarify simple important points.  Others call me arrogant for the courage of my convictions based on provable math.  If you do not have the understandings of business, you can easily accuse me of self promotion, but without promotion branding and marketing, new ideas go nowhere.  If you think avoiding war or social movements are the only acceptable paths to peace, you fail to see how reducing military spending and better understanding the causes and time periods for war can lead to much happier lives and prosperity for whole populations.  If you do not see the connection between military spending and murder rates or poor health outcomes, you are giving military spending too much credit, underestimating the domestic destruction of militarism.

Does it help or hinder interdisciplinary studies?

Peer review  and differing interpretations of the scientific method can be great impediments to new thinking that can only be truly appreciated in an interdisciplinary way.  Interdisciplinary thinking helps clarify basic concepts by looking at them from several angles.  This is the same kind of triangulation that is used in astronomy to estimate how far away objects are.  Differing religions can put barriers between people, but all religions have their version of the Golden Rule.  Hence multiple religions can better triangulate basic principles of good.  Some religions say pray always, while others encourage chanting singing and meditation to the same effect.  History, politics, economics, sociology, and psychology should be unified in their thinking, not at war  with each other in their separate silos and linguistics.  Empire theory helps unify these different disciplines at a basic level.  Having a common backbone can help the various social sciences relate to each other.

For More Information:

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt_3p._2014

Published Article:

https://www.academia.edu/23034796/TECHNICAL_Peace_Economics_8p._2014-2016

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, December 10), “Scientific Methods Variety”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Scientific-Methods-Variety,2017131789.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Findings and Special Claims

Since the Norwegian Nobel Committee seems to be taking me very seriously lately, it’s time for a catalog of my findings and special claims.

  1. Manufacturing Productivity growth rate reduces in proportion to military economy. Ruth Sivard provided the bar chart of nineteen years summary of G7 countries plus Sweden and Denmark in 1981.  Nils Petter Gledisch correlated the data at R=-0.81.  Reuschlein combined Europe and North America improving the continental correlation to R=-0.997.  Claim:  this proves the non-productive nature of military spending.  Reuschlein 1986.
  2. Capital Investment reduces by the amount of military spending. Ruth Sivard in 1983 published this bar chart of the G7 countries plus Sweden over a twenty one year period.  Reuschlein claims that for five of these countries R=-0.993.  The outliers of Italy and Canada are secondary countries in the two main continents, 3.5% GDP lower than the main top four NATO countries, and Japan is 4.5% GDP higher due to a strong cultural bias towards savings. Reuschlein 1986.
  3. American economic productivity model from 1920 to 1983 shows a correlation of R=0.999. All parameters were independently arrived at from annual historical data analysis.  Claim:  this model proves the existence of the 1926 Nicolai Kondratieff 54 year cycle and the Clement Juglar 1860 nine year investment cycle.  This model also has trade loss Great Depression factor and oil shock seventies Oil Crisis factor.  These special factors also repeat confirm their accuracy on a three year basis. Reuschlein 1986.
  4. Defense Strategy model 1985 and 1986. Here is where my war-gaming background comes in handy.  Claim:  this is the key concept why it is imperative for nations to reduce military spending or suffer long term national security disaster in a next major war decades from now.
  5. Decade by decade GDP of these same countries from 1900 to 1980 shows countries rising on low military and falling on high military generally. Best examples, USA, Japan, Russia, Germany.  Claim:  rise and fall of nations depends on level of military spending.  This supports 1972 Toynbee claim that 23 of 25 empires fell because of their high military spending.  Reuschlein 1986.
  6. Murder and Crime rates of five of same countries are proportional to the military economy. The five are from high to low America, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Japan, R=0.996.  This works best for murder rates, and crime index of murder, crime, criminals.  Sweden does not fit for crime index because of definitional issues such as misdemeanors added to felonies.  These five are all 160 year old societies.  The 400 year old societies of England, France, Massachusetts, and Virginia also correlate, R=0.93, but at a 60% lower rate.  The additional 240 years divided by 400 years is 60%.  This indicates a reduced crime rate for being a stable society, but still affected by the military economy size.  Claim:  social decay of declining empires is a direct result of the military spending levels, both because of the economic stagnation and the level of militarism.  Reuschlein 1989.
  7. Regional Growth proportional to military spending changes R=0.97. Analysis of Bi-Coastal Economy report of 1986 shows this when adding military spending changes and grouping states together around regional hub cities or other logical economic clusters of 17 state cluster mini-regions. Cluster idea partial credit goes to Los Angeles Book Award “Cities and the Wealth of Nations” and Reuschlein’s accounting background.  Reuschlein 1987.
  8. Kondratieff wave not only in economics, but also in droughts, temperature, and in wars. Reuschlein 1991.  Claim:  my list of 56 major events, natural, economics, and wars, shows 20 exact year fits and an average departure of 1.5 years from the 54 year cycle.  Drought data prepared by NOAA in 1988, presented on C-SPAN, started the three year project.
  9. Reuschlein finds 54 year cycle in a variety of volcanic, drought, flood, temperature, precipitation, hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes, and El Nino data. “Trends 90” a key statistical help with other sources.  Working with 14 temperature and 2 precipitation data sets I gradually discovered the pattern.  The difference in hemispheres North and South confirmed the pattern.  My forecasting prowess once earned top honors in a business course on production 1976.
  10. Found nine year cycle in precipitation records 1991. With nine year and 54 year cycles in both temperature and economics, what is the connection?  Failed trying to find it in agriculture.  Then the business production class bails me out as I remember Frederick Taylor’s work finding an ideal temperature to build railroads of 64 degrees Fahrenheit.  A 1986 Climate Change video aired on Maryland PBS by Australian Journalist James Walker leads to Ideal Temperature Zone concept.  Claim:  humans respond to excessive heat with lethargy, creating the link between economic cycles and weather cycles.
  11. Goldstein 1987 finds fifty year cycle in major wars in Europe last five hundred years. Reuschlein extends this to three hundred years of Roman Empire, 200 years of America, for a total of 1000 years with 6 of 17 major war years projected onto the future year 2025.  Pattern is usually #1 versus #2 power after 27 year high growth period when wealth is maximized and new economic differences are maximized.  Then about three years into the new low growth period, at the end of a major cold year two or three year trend, leaders seek a distraction into war and the major war breaks out.  Claim:  both economics and temperature lead to major wars.
  12. Finding: unemployment rate variance across the states fluctuates greatly with the military spending.  For the 1984-1992 period, US military spending % GDP drops 23% overall while the Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell’s home state Maine increases 100%. 12 state clusters representing the Eastern 78% of the country correlate directly with the military changes, R=0.97.  The largest rise in unemployment occurs in Massachusetts as Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill retires in 1986.  Opposite pattern of #7 but same correlation, as the sixteen states that benefited most under Reagan military buildup have fourteen of the highest unemployment rate increases.  The two exceptions?  South Carolina and Georgia with the chair and ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee representing those two states.  Reuschlein 1992.
  13. Richard Schneider asks me to teach my course on “University of the Air” Radio for Peace International 1997. Finding:  recognizing the manufacturing nature of military spending taken as a whole.  1991 University of Colorado professor invites me to write up the manufacturing productivity connection explanation.  Finding:  must look at arms manufacturers as suppliers to the military “factory”.  Then military “factory” is light manufacturing with heavy equipment manufactured by arms industry.  Then absence of a positive product that helps meet human needs like food, clothing, shelter, transportation, fuel, and other hard goods explains how military spending inputs can nourish local communities while giving back only a political service to the larger community or nation.  Necessity is not the issue, national defense is not the issue; lack of a consumer product is the economic flaw in military spending.  Input Output analysis is the key to this understanding.
  14. Spirit Level 2010 by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Puckett shows that income inequality leads to disastrous social and health outcomes. Finding:  Military Spending has much stronger correlations on the six strongest components of their index.  Claim:  Decline of empire is more responsible for poor social conditions than income inequality.
  15. Doctoral Dissertation on Peace Economics in Peace Studies 2009 finds that of eight key concepts in Peace Economics as I define it, Peace Studies programs are very weak on two. Those are the regional state by state economics of military spending and the long cycle of history of booms and busts and wars.  The 54 year cycle is hardly mentioned.  Claim:  not understanding the local impact of military spending and politics beyond the usual generalities avoids findings like all presidents elected during the 11 elections of the Cold War came from an above average military spending state.  Claim:  not understanding the long cycle leads to poor prediction of wars, which leads to military over preparation for constant wars and war threats.
  16. Finding: Klyashtorin’s spectrum analysis of Greenland ice core data shows a very strong 55 year cycle in temperature data over 1400 years.  A friend on a global warming list-serve shared that research from decades ago in circa 2005.  Finding after Hurricane Sandy in 2012:  Running a 55 year moving average over the 1850 to 2010 annual global temperature data smooths the graph into three straight lines, with the last two correlating at .998 and .997 respectively.  Claim:  this proves the existence of the Kondratieff wave   and the natural origins of that cycle show that the economic cycle is not human made but comes from a cycle between land and ocean caused by differential evaporation rates over land and ocean.  Like the four seasons over 12 months this super season occurs over 54 years and occurs despite background changes to the underlying trends caused by the Greenhouse Effect.

Summary

  1. Claim: Recognition of this body of work will lead to better severe weather and major hurricane repeat events predictions as historical records are analyzed and regionalized better.

Claim:  Fortunes will be made in the stock market as the regional impact of major military budget changes is seen to change the fortunes of regionally concentrated stocks and as military states and manufacturing states are seen to move in opposite directions.  Claim:  downward pressure will be strong on all military budgets everywhere as nations begin to understand the self-defeating role high military spending has on a nation’s real defense strength, its economy, over the course of a few decades:  a better balance will be struck between short term defense and long term defense.  Claim:  economic benefits as well as social benefits will accrue to those who find a lower balance of military spending as the way to go.  The million US homicide deaths that occurred in the thirty years after John Lennon’s death could have been cut in half if the military budget had been cut in half, saving 500,000 lives.  Claim:  science will be enhanced greatly as economics and climate change each improve in accuracy by an order of magnitude, with many benefits to the billions of people on this planet.  Claim:  all of these benefits and more will only occur if someone like the Norwegian Nobel Committee helps me get over the publicity and recognition hurdles, so that thousands of scientist can help take this work to the next level.

Seven Page Summary of Main Ideas:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

 

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, November 16), “Why Is the USA an Empire?”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Findings-and-Special-Claims,2017131181.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Why Is the USA an Empire?

Many make the mistake of defining an empire by its legal structure or the formal way it projects its power overseas.  That is too narrow a definition.  Who is considered a citizen and what lands are possessed by the empire often are the basis of traditional empire definition.  A better modern definition of empire would look at the flows into and out of a country to better define the scope of empire.  Those who recognize America as an empire often begin with the 700 or 800 foreign military bases the United States has worldwide.  Those who would call America an empire would often refer to this as Imperial Overstretch and consider this a main cause of the decline of empires generally speaking.  I myself find the large standing military and overseas political entanglements a better definition of an empire society.  Because the military budget itself defines and measures so much of the rate of economic decline and the rise of various forms of social decay and political control, that is the single best measure of empire as I see it.  Control of large areas of land outside of the original nation state is just not the way Americans like to do business or see themselves; they like to think they are a democracy, not an empire.  But post World War II America not only adopted a large standing army, it also projected its democratic image in a variety of world institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.  However, the mixture of America’s elites (often Ivy League) among the areas of dominance in business, politics, law, media, and the intelligence agencies has created a ruling class.  This ruling class has over time become ingrown and stifles social mobility among the various income groups.  There are still success stories among the land grant college graduates and the military, but America is now more of a class based society than Europe; just the opposite of the situation around World War II, the hegemonic war that lead to US world dominance and empire.

How Did We Get This Way?

The start of the modern American empire was in 1944, when the Democratic Party Convention failed to keep the liberal Wallace as Vice President.  He earned 63% of the vote, but the rules required a two thirds vote.  Early the next morning, moderate Truman was voted in.  Truman was determined to oppose the Soviets and use the atomic bomb, taking the Churchill side of the debate and setting up the rise of the Cold War confrontation.  Then in 1947 the national security act was passed creating the CIA and the Nazi spy network in Russia was absorbed into the CIA.  All this was opposed by the Secretary of War and the Joint Chiefs of Staff who wanted a traditional small army between wars rather than the large standing army of the Cold War.  So Truman raised the military to 5% of the economy rather than the traditional 1% between wars that went back to the 19th Century.  After Korea, Eisenhower then doubled that rate to 10% of the economy keeping the Eisenhower economy under a 2.5% annual growth rate.  Oddly, in both 1953 and 1961 Eisenhower warned us about the military industrial complex even as he was their agent.  Under Kennedy through Carter, except for the Vietnam War, the military was brought back down to the Truman pre-Korea levels of 5% of the economy.  Then Reagan reversed course raising the military to 6.5% of the economy, supported by a tax cut deficit twice the rise in military spending to keep the economy from collapsing.  Kennedy brought military spending down to 7.7% of the economy by 1965 that together with the Kennedy targeted tax cut investment tax credit created the sixties boom.  The four years after 1965 had a 5.6% growth rate, the next four years 4.0% and the next four years 3.6% as the Vietnam War dragged down the economy under Johnson and Nixon through 1973.  The next sixteen years of four presidential terms averaged about 2.5% growth in each term as the post-Vietnam oil crisis recession, the Carter 1978 tax, and Reagan military buildup weighed down the economy into mediocracy.  The Bush senior term suffered from the 1990 tax increase and the post-Cold War and post-Gulf War recessions that elected Clinton in 1992.  Then the drop from 6.5% military to 3.0% from 1965 to 1999 returned the economy to sixties like high growth rates under Clinton. Bush junior then ruined the surplus and the economy with a Reagan like military buildup to 5.0% of the economy with a too small tax cut.  A suddenly surging military buildup, in fiscal 2008, doubled the increase of the military compared to years before and since, and leads to the financial collapse of 2008-2009.  Deregulation of derivatives in 1999 lead to a ten-fold increase in derivatives that set the table for the financial collapse, but a quarter by quarter economy analysis shows the four quarters of the fiscal year 2008 were the worst economic quarter results in that period of several years either side of 2008.  So the Iraq War surge, that actually began in July 2008, lead directly to the economic collapse, combined with the bank deregulation and lack of SEC oversight to make matters worse.  The economic recovery under Obama was slow as he tripled troops in Afghanistan, keeping Bush levels of military spending, but picked up in his second term as the military budget finally went down. This link gives you a better detailed historical account of the American presidencies and supporting data: https://www.academia.edu/4044532/HISTORY_Presidents_Military_Economy_1910-2009_3p._2013

What Are Some Effects of Empire Levels of Military Spending?

As Toynbee (1972) noticed, 23 of 25 civilizations studied collapsed due to high levels of military spending.  Control of the military budget is two way street, corrupting the political system while giving power to those who dole out the money.  The social decay of empire is a result of the economic lost energy represented by the dead end purpose of military spending.  Not meeting people’s needs as they multiply under a stagnant empire political economy structure leads to poor health, lack of social mobility, and high anxiety and crime.  Just as Rome’s Nero fiddled while Rome burned, Bush fiddled while New Orleans was drowned by hurricane Katrina.  Just as Rome once had a crazy emperor for four years named Caligula for his small boots. America now has a crazy president noted for his small hands. Empires tend to emphasize power and control in their social structure, while healthier societies emphasize achievement.  Here are a wide variety of comparative aspects of an empire society including power/achievement, control/opportunity, win/lose, feudalism/ingenuity, boredom/excitement, high crime/low crime, football/baseball, bomb/home, forgiving/unforgiving:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, November 5), “Why Is the USA an Empire?”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Why-Is-the-USA-an-Empire?,2017130884.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Changing the World Views

How Mastering Macroeconomics and Climate Change Created Kudos and Backlash

My academic work creating a perfect science-like model of economic growth proves that military spending is the biggest impediment to a powerful nation’s economic growth.  That in turn leads to my new defense strategy requiring a nation to minimize military spending or fall into decline that will inevitably be eclipsed by another power.  Many falsely assume this decline to be inevitable, when in fact it is the result of prolonged over-militarization.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee’s failure to recognize this new reality of science only delays, it does not stop, the inevitable recognition that excessive militarization is self-poisoning of a society.  It does not stop the fact that huge stock market gains are possible following the moves of the military industrial complex better and recognizing the Great Lakes states region moves in the opposite direction of the military budget.  That is because military spending drains key science and capital resources away from civilian manufacturing industries that can be restored by reducing the military budget.  Even the military will benefit from initial lowering, because that results in a better future for them and the society around them as the new high growth glide path “tide lifts even the military boat” ever higher faster.

History of Campaigning to Change the World

My campaign to change the world began with a brochure with a bar chart by Ruth Sivard in 1983.  I took it to the walls of legislative workspace of the 1983 Oregon legislative session with blown up copies of that bar chart.  Finding that in my files after the 1985 Oregon legislative session, I realized the world was ignoring her great work, so I began to test it.  My tests lead to the first presentation of material in December 1985 to the Lane County Commissioners, including Jerry Rust who offered to submit my material to the Pulitzer Prize committee back then and in 2016 submitted my first nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Then Frank Arundel offered me his MacIntosh to complete the first edition of “Peace Economics” in 1986 which I extensively footnoted unlike these blogs.  That remains my clearest and most convincing work of the Economic Model that results from the nonproductive nature of military spending.  PRIO, the “Journal of Peace Research” in Oslo Norway where the Nobel Prize is awarded, asked me to submit an article, but I did not know how to, so I ignored them.  I taught three academic years my Peace Economics course from 1987 to 1989 at the University of Oregon.  My enrollment for a Doctorate in Economics at U.O. ended in my withdrawal due to the fact my professors agreed with me that military spending was non-productive, yet it was not in the model we were expected to study for the first year.  Frustrated at the University, I turned to being a monthly columnist 1989-1997 with Peter Bergel’s Oregon PeaceWorker which had a circulation of 10,000.  Soon all the Democratic Congresspersons knew of my work and Peter DeFazio asked me to write a piece for him to read on the floor of the House, but I was intimidated once more, fearing I might be too critical for a political body like that.  Then Richard Schneider of Radio for Peace International asked me to offer a University of the Air shortwave radio course in 1997 until 2004 when RFPI folded.

The New Campaign

Having met a professor at an anti-war rally in 2003, she later helped me find a new Doctoral Program without the obstinacy of Economics.  From 2006 to 2009 I completed the Doctorate in Educational Leadership from Madison, Wisconsin’s Edgewood College, next to the Edgewood High School I once graduated from and earned the first of many subsequent listings in Marquis Who’s Who I am listed in, later including America and World.  My day job for many years had been as a CPA working for my father, but now I could finally get on with my real life’s work establishing the new scientific economic theory no one in the field of economics even thought was possible.  Economists and Accountants don’t have the scientific training of an engineer, my first degree, so I knew the only way was to advance my ideas to academics and the public until the anticipated foot dragging of economists was overcome.  To that end, I turned to blogging press releases on expertclick.com, recommended by an author I had read.  I now have 119,000 views on Expertclick.com over a four year period, 5443 views on Academia.edu, 5014 views on WordPress.com, and about 10,000 views on Realeconomy.com which has links to all the other detailed websites and is the best place to start.

Favorites of the Press

ExpertClick.com shows me constant updates I check daily for the most current 50 press releases sent out to their list of 7000.  Of those who have left the 50 list, but remain on access to site visitors, I update those results once a year.  The full lists ranked by both views and chronologically are at the link at the bottom of this page.  The most popular old releases in the last year are, in rank order of views this last year, in parentheses (all time total), and date:

Predictions 200 (1067) 8-26-14, Global Citizen 190 (1289)     6-28-14, Walker Work Dignity 154 (722) 2-28-15, Politician in Eugene 151 (789) 5-14-14, Scientific Revolution 142 (687) 12-21-14, Nepal Chile 127 (595) 4-28-15, Grandpa Horicon Marsh 121 (695) 3-1-14, Elections Plus 114 (553) 11-13-14, Military Terror Policing 101 (1222) 8-17-14, Modern Feudalism 99 (863) 2-21-15, Religion and Empire 99 (795) 1-3-15, Heat Hurts 99 (652) 9-8-14, Baltimore Riot 97 (613) 5-2-15.

Favorites of the Academics

Academia.edu lists my 72 papers, including seven peer reviewed articles, several six per page power point conference presentations, many chapters of my unpublished book based on the Radio for Peace International course, the most important Defense Strategy and Economic Model chapters of “Peace Economics”, and many special papers on key topics old and new.  These are ranked by downloads as a marker of serious interest in the link at the end of this article. Unfortunately, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has focused only on the superficial ExpertClick.com press releases and not enough on this academic papers section.  The most important work of all is the 1986 Economic Model and the 1986 Defense Strategy chapters from “Peace Economics” worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize.  The Climate War Cycle power point from 7-20-13 World Future Society presentation and the Weather Cycle paper document the 54 year cycle work that is worthy of the Nobel Physics Prize.  Both of these together are worthy of the Nobel Economics Prize.  Alas for me, the world is full of very slow learners. The ranked lists of state, country, and topics are all shown in the link at the bottom of this page.  This is my best source for people and places interested in my work, and show an evolution from mainly US interest, to mainly British Empire interest among the foreign interest, to strong global acceptance of my work beyond the British Empire countries including more US and worldwide gamers from the Gary Gygax and Dungeons and Dragons crowd.

Favorites of the Mostly Political Friends and Public

BobReuschlein.wordpress.com is where I put all my press releases, and it allows typos to be corrected so it is the best version of my press releases and includes some excellent work just before I started with ExpertClick.com in October 2013 including the first interest by the Pentagon and the CIA in my work. This general list to the public and my mostly political friends has very different priorities than the other two.  Much of this comes from referrals.  Here are the 16 most interesting articles according to the common folk out there, in rank order of views:

1133 Scientific Revolution Facts (Thomas Kuhn), 114 “Where to Invade Next” (Michael Moore), 104 Wargaming with Gary Gygax, 92 Game Master Gygax History, 70 Nobel Peace Prize Nominee, 58 Politician in Eugene Oregon, 53 History US Military Economy, 51 The New Weimar Republic, 47 Are Chili and Nepal Related?, 47 Modern Stages of Empire, 43 Scott Walker of Wisconsin, 42 To Hillary Clinton Critics, 40 Paris Terror, Who Gains?, 40 CIA Presidents:  Obama Clinton, 38 Baltimore Riot the New Watts, 38 Odds on Nobel Peace Prize.

For complete ranked lists of viewings by topic, state, country, by websites:

https://www.academia.edu/34794541/CHANGING_WORLD_VIEWS_2013-2017_13p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, October 8). “Changing the World Views”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Changing-the-World-Views-Robert-Reuschlein,2017130137.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Nobel Peace Year Highlights

Saturday October 14th 8:30am at the ISSS-ISAC conference at American University in Washington DC I will be presenting my “low military is the best defense strategy”, a key concept in reducing military spending world wide, and a key reason to award the Peace Prize.

In the year between Nobel Peace Prize Awards I’ve had a very good year.  Starting with two entries in the “SAGE Encyclopedia of War – Social Science Edition” released online October 12, 2016.  That event pushed my Academic.edu viewings overseas into orbit with about three times as much response internationally in the year since then while interest domestically in the United States stayed about the same as before.  In addition, downloads set new records five times this last year.  The encyclopedia articles boosted downloads to new levels far in excess of the previous record of 34 for “Summary”.   The “SAGE Political Economy of War” reached 50 downloads after the October release.  “Military Economy Direct 11” reached 56 downloads after the March release followed by “Dear Future US President” with 87 after the May release, then “History of Gary Gygax and War Economy” released in June had 129 downloads, and finally “Military Complete Geography” released in August has just reached 159 downloads.  That’s five new records in one year.  My work has just hit a new level of growing international acceptance this year, setting those new records in downloads.  There are a variety of other surprises on my websites and in the news that give me encouragement.

Academia Recommendation

My “SAGE Military Keynesianism” encyclopedia entry was RECOMMENDED by Professor Aruwa, Suleiman A.S. on January 12, 2017.  The good professor was once the Finance Minister in the Nigerian Government and has over ONE MILLION VIEWS of his Academia.edu website.  He has 22 books and 59 papers on his website.  He is in the top 0.5% on Academia with an author rank of 1.5.  Thanks to his recommendation I now have an author rank of 1.1 and on a twelve month basis I’m now in the top 0.8% for my annual views and top 2% on monthly views.  My total downloads this year of 495 include the 173 in the last month, mostly 158 from “Military Complete Geography.”

Norwegian Nobel Committee

Viewing the last twenty-four releases in a row just occurred about 2:30pm September 23, 2017,  Oslo Norway time.  This is probably the Nobel Committee because the last time that long a streak of consecutive views happened was at 9am Norwegian time the day after nominations closed in 2016.  This year one of my nominators received an acknowledgement from the committee last Spring 2017.  So Jim Murphy’s ranking my chances as 31st is probably an underestimate of my chances.  I’m on a list of 1500 peacemakers all time, online, that includes Barack Obama born one year later according to the list.  It mentions my “Dr. Peace” name and my attendance and presentation at the one hundred year anniversary of the Hague Peace Conference in 1999.  It does not include the many peace and international groups I’ve been involved with over the years, see my Resume paper.

Hurricane and Volcano Cycle Evidence

Giant Indonesian Bali volcano Agung, category 5 volcano in 1963 is predicted to erupt any day now for the first time in 54 years, a perfect fit for the 54 year cycle.  Just in the last month, two category 4 hurricanes landed in the United States for the first time in 166 years, since 1851, which is three 54 year cycles plus 4 years.  Jacksonville Florida had record flooding this year exceeding the old record in 1846, three 54 year cycles plus nine years.  Puerto Rico hit by category five hurricane Maria exceeds the 1928 hurricane that last hit Puerto Rico, a third hurricane of category four plus hitting the United States territory this year.  This is an 81 year fit of three 27 year cycles, missing by 8 years.

Other Highlights This Year

Presenting at the Telos Institute for the first time this last January was a highlight as the main speaker took great interest in my work.  Then getting back to my wargaming roots after 43 years since I attended the first seven Gen Con conventions.  I had not seen my old friend Gary Gygax since the first year of his Dungeons and Dragons sales.  I saw his son Ernest Gygax at the ninth Gary Con in Lake Geneva after his death.  His son told me he talked about me all the time.  We were two leading lights in the International Federation of Wargaming from 1966 to 1974, where he constantly and I occasionally published.  I was the top rated player in the IFW and beat Gary in the only game ever directly between us.  I played a prototype of D & D on the porch of Gary’s home once.  Then as I moved West, he offered to sell my old games at the convention for a couple years.  That was the last we corresponded, as I got into graduate school and then politics 2000 miles away.  When I returned 43 years later, I found out I was a Legend of Wargaming, included in the book “Playing the Game” by Jon Peterson.  Then I found out my niece was at Gen Con 50 also.  It’s been very emotional.  I was finally allowed to present at the UW Madison Chaos Seminar on August 22 about my empire theory.  The reception was warm and many were very interested with many questions that feed into my personal strength, answering questions.

Summary

Strange pattern on my website might indicate Nobel is double checking me out right now, Saturday afternoon 9-23-17 about 2pm Oslo time, and Monday evening 9-25-17 between 8pm and midnight, someone(s) read all 24 press releases since last Christmas.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee reportedly chooses in August according to Jim Murphy, announces October 6 Friday.  Since both days are the same 24 in a row, it’s hard to imagine that as anything but a double check by two of the five Norwegian politicians that make the decision. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday 6 October, 11:00 a.m. Norway time (4am Madison time CDT).

For more information about the Nobel Peace Prize journey:

https://www.academia.edu/31102462/BIOGRAPHY_for_Nobel_Peace_Prize_2013-2017_23_p

For more information about my Main Ideas:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, October 1). “Nobel Peace Year Highlights”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Nobel-Peace-Year-Highlights-Robert-Reuschlein,2017129985.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Three Cycles or Just One

When I coined the title of my Radio for Peace International course “Weather, Wealth, and Wars” it was just a cute way of saying there are not three separate 54 year cycles, there is just one cycle with several different manifestations in the natural world, the economic world, and the political and war world.  Convinced that it was idiotic to consider them separate, I began looking for the connecting mechanisms and found them over a long period of time, with trial and error. But I still was stuck in the old logic of analyzing the three worlds separately.  What if you look at the system as a whole and look at these interconnections holistically?  At first I thought the Earth system created by differing evaporation rates over land and ocean was the main driver of it all, we are creatures of our planet.  Sure enough, after trying agriculture as the link and finding that doesn’t work well, I remembered some studies and personal experiences with heat that showed how heat can reduce productivity.  That turned out to fit a variety of cases and circumstances and appears to be the right connection.  Then economics seems to be the right fit for explaining the timing of major wars, again in a variety of ways.  But along came the finding of cold years (sometimes months and days) correlating with wars beginning.  That seemed a bridge too far for me.  Yet it was there, and evidence for it exists.  But the mechanism?  I just don’t know, I’m only partially sold on that concept.  I’d rather downplay that whole idea.  But yet…..well, maybe.

How Do Human Beings Work

For all our rationalizations and reasoning, we are really very fragile creations.  Emotions often get the better of our reasoning side.  For all our ability to “work around” and solve seemingly impossible problems, we are very much trapped by our environment.  Physically we build walls and roads all over the place to separate ourselves from our environment.  Housing is considered a basic need, as is privacy.  Constantly pumping in sound to a cell is a form of torture and can drive a person crazy just as much as complete isolation can.  We are delicate, impacted by many things.  We can overwork ourselves to the point of sickness and exhaustion.  The craziness of the president’s tweets may be a result of perpetual five hour a night sleep deprivation.  Balance is the key to happiness and success.  Sudden changes in our atmospherics, new trends, and sudden deepening of old trends may have consequences.  Those on the top of the food chain may feel the new trends and adjustments especially well having a whole populace to channel the new state of being up to a focus.

Junctures and Consequences

Great stress is put on the Earth each time the shift occurs from relative warming trend to relative cooling trend.  The land and ocean are in titanic struggle.  So some events of the 54 year cycle are every 27 year events.  Then there is another paradox of the long cycle; that every other 54 year long cycle comes and goes over a land dominated Northern Hemisphere dominated cycle or an ocean dominated Southern Hemisphere cycle.  This shows up in the temperature record clearly by whether the Northern or Southern Hemisphere is warmer in a given year.  So while the land heats and cools over a 54 year cycle, the ocean seems to follow a much longer 108 year cycle.  With the Earth about two thirds ocean (71% actually) and one third land (29% actually) this seems to make some rough sense out of the pattern.  Land seems to be three times as volatile and subject to warming as ocean for several reasons.  The huge tendency of solar radiation to vaporize water is satisfied easily over ocean and with difficulty over land and especially difficult over desert.  This shows up in large scale with the heavily landed Northern Hemisphere having three times the seasonal temperature variation as the heavily oceanic Southern Hemisphere.  Heat slows people down in the tropics and in the summer.  Cool refreshes and energizes for higher productivity.

Historical Turning Points

Lets look at the natural, economic, and war turning points fifty four years ago.  Multi year averages are best for determining turning points out of a rough set of data like economic growth by year and temperature by year for the last hundred plus years.  For both economics and temperature, the American picture is clear.  For economic growth the high points are 1898, 1952, and 2006; the low points are 1928, 1982, and 2036.  The temperature relative to trend low is 1913, 1967, and 2021; the high 1940 and 1994.  So the cooling trend from 1940 to 1967 is the high growth era peaking in 1952.  At the end of this era is the natural dominance of the land heavy Northern Hemisphere that began with the 1921 heat wave, lead to peak heat in the Great Depression thirties, then cools and continues until 1968.  In 1969 the oceanic Southern Hemisphere suddenly becomes the hotter Hemisphere until 2028.  The economy starts cooling off and the politics changes drastically on exactly this timetable.  Around the globe 1968 is a year of student riots in France and America, and Cultural Revolution in China.  Then 1969 almost has a superpower war between the communist giants China and Russia, except that the nuclear bomb and cooler heads prevail as they did in the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.  1970 is the thousand year average year of a major war breaking out in the 54 year war cycle.  The political pendulum swings in America from the 1932 to 1968 dominance of Democratic liberal spending presidents to the dominance of conservative presidencies starting with Nixon Reagan and the Bushes.  Each period has its exceptions that prove the rule, moderate Republican Eisenhower in the first period and conservative Southern Democrats Carter and Clinton in the second period.  The new Republican political economy of austerity fits the economic down cycle.  Launched by the 1971 Louis Powell memo that reacts to liberal dominance with a bevy of new 70’s conservative think tanks, Heritage, ALEC, CATO, to add to the 1942 Bradley Foundation.  All these in the wake of the Vietnam War defeat with its reduced military spending.  The reaction is to gin up a reason to raise military spending. George Bush uses the CIA creating a B team estimate of Soviet military spending based on American prices.  Soviet hardware overpriced creates the illusion that 80% of Soviet spending is on hardware, not the traditional massive Russian conscript army.  With this fictitious doubling of Soviet military spending, the public is lured into an arms race military increase under Reagan. Beginning in 1981, with the biggest peacetime military increase in American history, the economy is initially depressed in 1982, by switching from manufacturing to military.  This was funded by a massive 70% tax cut for the top1% along with a 15% cut for the middle class, propping up the economy with classic warlike deficit spending.  Along with firing the PATCO aircraft controllers and gutting regulations protecting unions, this begins the long forty year freeze of wage increases for the middle class.  This leads to a militaristic medieval like society of lords and serfs.  This is coupled with an influx of third world elites, businesspeople, engineers, doctors, and lawyers with their elite conservative lack of concern for the third world masses.  This pushes society deeper into a state of empire and empire social decay.

Summary

Empire military increases and temperature increases combine to send America into a middle class decline as conservative political forces fueled by military spending reinforce the pattern of decline across the board, except for the elites and military industry:  https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt._29_slide_5_p._2017

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 17). “Three Cycles or Just One”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Three-Cycles-or-Just-One-Robert-Reuschlein,2017119675.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Hurricane Planet Dynamics

Back to back major hurricanes like Harvey and Irma is a sure sign of warmer oceans thanks to the dramatic escalation of global warming since 1973.  Why do I say since 1973?  That’s the last year of the 1910-1973 cycle as shown by three perfectly straight line of 55 year moving average global warming temperatures since 1850.  That straight line with a 1 Fahrenheit/century slope was correlated at .998, and then the next cycle of 1974 to 2025 first ten years was correlated .997 with a 2 Fahrenheit/century slope.  Before 1910 was no slope and after 2025 is anybody’s guess, perhaps 3 Fahrenheit/century slope.  The central year of the most modern 55 year moving average was, at that time, 1983 for the 55 years from 1956 to 2010.  What does “at that time” mean?  It means the time of my July 20, 2013 speech to the World Future Society meeting in Chicago that year.  What happened was that everyone in the front row (about 6 or 8 people out of 50 in attendance) rose in unison to take a cell-phone snapshot of my key temperature slide.  What had triggered my investigation was Hurricane Sandy hitting New York 52 years after the last flooding of the battery in Manhattan, New York in 1960.  I decided to test the 55 year cycle relative peak La Place transform result of Klyashtorin (2001 Rome) work over 1420 years of Greenland ice core measurements and it worked out brilliantly.

How Does the Planetary System Work?

Like clockwork is the first answer, with a certain amount of noise, just like the seasons and the sunrises, with precision underlying all three phenomena.  Red sky in morning, sailors take warning, red sky at night, sailors delight.  Where does it come from?  Evaporation differences over land and sea.  What I mean by that is that most solar energy landing on the surface of the Earth is used to vaporize water.  But there is much water in the ocean and much less water over land.  So there is more solar energy left over to warm things up over land than over water.  So land seems to warm up about three times as fast as ocean overall on planet Earth.  So other than the frozen ice covered land over Antarctica, there is about three times as much land in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere.  This then tends to explain why the seasonal extreme temperature months of January and July are three times as far apart in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere.  So it takes a long time to even this energy balance out on planet Earth.  It takes 27 years of heating for the land to get so overheated with major droughts that the ocean starts with major floods to begin taking the next 27 years bringing things back into balance.  So the 1917 temperature bottom takes 27 years to reach the temperature top in 1944.  The next bottom in 1971 is unclear as 1964 and 1976 look more like bottoms, although the year 1971 tries to form a bottom.  Then the next top in 1998 is clearly 54 years after the 1944 top.

More Patterns

Great stress is put on the Earth each time the shift occurs from relative warming trend to relative cooling trend.  The land and ocean are in titanic struggle.  So some events of the 54 year cycle are every 27 year events.  Then there is another paradox of the long cycle; that every other 54 year long cycle comes and goes over a land dominated Northern Hemisphere dominated cycle or an ocean dominated Southern Hemisphere cycle.  This shows up in the temperature record clearly by whether the Northern or Southern Hemisphere is warmer in a given year.  So while the land heats and cools over a 54 year cycle, the ocean seems to follow a much longer 108 year cycle.  With the Earth about two thirds ocean (71% actually) and one third land (29% actually) this seems to make some rough sense out of the pattern.  So the strong mid century warming of the 20th century comes in the midst of the 48 years 1921 to 1968 when the Northern Hemisphere is hotter 45 of those years.  The Southern Hemisphere is hotter 45 of the 60 years from 1861 to 1920.  Both temperature dominant patterns show brief reversals in the middle of the dominant patterns, as these long term patterns show minor ebbs and flows along the way.  More graphs and details are shown in my 1991 paper “Natural Global Warming” posted to my academia.edu website.

Major Miami Hurricanes Last Hundred Years

Major Miami hurricanes were 1935, 1965, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and now Irma in 2017.  These illustrate the every 27 year change nature of the 54 year cycle.  If the 1965 and 1992 events are a perfect 27 years apart, the 1935 event is three years early and the 2017 event is two years early.  Or looking at the average, 30+27+25 divided by three is 27.3 years.  Another view would be the two sets of 54 year cycles 1935 to 1992, 57 years, and 1965 to 2017, 52 years.  Then that average would be 54.5 years.  One could argue the Miami connection, but no one could argue the South Florida connections of these four events.  One could note that the first two were in the Northern Hemisphere phase, a land oriented phase, hence farther apart.  Then the second two were in the oceanic Southern Hemisphere phase and closer together.  This shows how oceanic phase events differ from land phase events.  Likewise the droughts and floods.  The US had two Major interior droughts in the land phase (1934, 1936) and one in the ocean phase (1988).  But also the oceanic phase had major regional droughts in coastal states, 1985 to 1991 seven year droughts in Florida, Georgia, and California.  As for the major Mississippi floods, one in the land phase in 1938 (discounting the 1927 flood as pre-human intervention) and two in the oceanic phase 1993 and 1995.  The major droughts were 52 and 54 years apart and the major floods were 55 and 57 years apart.  Perhaps the cycle length shrunk for the droughts because the intervening years were 63% (34/54) land phase years and the cycle extended somewhat for the floods because the intervening years were 47% (27/57) ocean phase years.

Summary

Yes, the world temperature cycle exists; yes it works best globally, nearly as well for the US, but very well regionally as well.  My temperature graph slide and 56 event charts were posted on my academia.edu website in 2013 and are included at the end of this general paper about the weather cycle:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5p. from_1997_9p. 2014

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 10). “Hurricane Planet Dynamics”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Hurricane-Planet-Dynamics,2017119532.aspx

Addenda

Jacksonville flood was the worst since 1846, that’s 171 year ago, three 54 year cycles would be 162 years, so that is a 9 year miss.  The last time two category 4 hurricanes hit the US in the same year was 1851, that’s 166 years ago, three 54 year cycles would be 162 years, so that is a 4 year miss.

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Teaching Peace Economics

People wonder why I criticize exactly the people I need on my side.  It’s because I’m not writing for them, my academic colleagues, I’m writing for history.  In the course of time, even though many of them rightly consider themselves great for their disciplines or great among their colleagues, most of them will be long forgotten one hundred years from now.  I’m different.  My work is so unique many fail to understand it.  I will be remembered one hundred years from now, probably better posthumously than now.  I have found scientific bedrock in two fields, economics and climate.  Because I’m an outsider to those fields, a talented mathematician, wargamer, and politician in that order, I consider my best chance for a Nobel Prize is in the political field of Peace.  I consider that I have a very good chance of becoming the first to win three Nobel Prizes, in Peace, Economics, and Physics.  People want to pigeon-hole me into one area or another without seeing the essential interconnectedness of it all.  My achievement would not have been possible without my thorough intuitive understanding of mathematics in a real world context.  A mathematician and wargamer with depth in politics is what it took to find the answers in fields long thought to be imprecise in the aggregate.  My frustrations and situation sound a lot like those of Galileo trying to awaken the world to the Copernican Revolution in astronomy to me.  Try telling today’s economists that military spending and temperature trends are the two biggest impediments to economic growth.  They’d be rolling in the aisles with laughter.

Living with Thomas Kuhn’s Insights

When Thomas Kuhn wrote “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” he gave me the guideposts to understanding the resistance of those in the world around me when I came out with my first strong findings in my short book “Peace Economics” in 1986.  Days ago I attended a memorial service of another somewhat reclusively shy academic, Warren Hagstrom, a Sociology Professor at UW Madison, either the first or second ranked such school program in the world (Berkeley is the rival).  On the cover of his memorial service brochure is this John Maynard Keynes quote “The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”  Indeed.  Lately I’ve come to realize the mistake of starting with World War II in my 2010 forty minute video and 24 page accompanying pamphlet on Peace Economics.  Challenging Military Keynesianism by starting with that war is to challenge the most deeply held belief in America, the notion that the war brought us out of the Great Depression.  I have lost several potential allies over that issue (initials GF, FG, and MP).  I should have started slowly and built to such a conclusion ever so gradually.  It’s like when I discovered most people reading the 48 page paperback version of Peace Economics stopped one third of the way through.  Or like the discovery that conservatives instantly want to turn a Peace Economics discussion into a discussion of the merits of war versus peace, instantly stereotyping me as some naïve hippy fool peacenic.  My solution to that problem was to call my website and nineties book Real Economy.  That is when I realized the manufacturing economy was being sacrificed on the military altar.  That further lead to the political insight that the Great Lakes region industrial states were the ones most imperiled by militarism, collapsing with military buildups like the eighties and after 9-11-01 (the aughts?), and prospering with military builddowns like the sixties, seventies, and nineties.

Stunning New Insights of my Life (Math, Political Economy, Peace)

Born the day after my mother’s mother’s funeral, I was traumatized for many years over the mixed messages of grief and love I received from mom in that first year.  It took a couple decades of therapy to figure that out.  My mother was told by a doctor when I was four that I might be retarded.  My grandfather then wrote a poem about me “My Bobby boy, why to you have that somber eye?”  Not until I got an arithmetic test back in the third grade with 100 on it did I begin to realize I was a person of worth.  That was my first ever positive feedback from school.  Math saved my life as it slowly pulled up all my grades over the years, peaking in the high school college wargaming years of math genius turned top wargamer turned top engineer.  Math was the first great insight of my life.  Gary Gygax was my first role model.  Second great insight was to intern in the 1981 Oregon Legislative session.  Nothing but the best of testimony on any given subject, I learned the basics of economic development in the desperate times of the state of Oregon having the highest unemployment rate in the nation and living in the poorest precinct neighborhood in Eugene Oregon ranked last of 378 cities by Rand McNally in 1982.  I learned first hand how the realities of politics were far different than the perception.  Third great insight was the national peace movement list-serves from 2001 to 2005 as a leading member of the Madison Area Peace Coalition, a great lesson in learning about how the military industrial complex really operates and functions, again quite different than the common perceptions.  A fourth great insight lies in the unexpectedly hostile reaction in 2014 by some leading academics of peace and justice, hostile to me personally and to my work.  Although many are keenly interested in my writings and many have very positive reactions to it all, I live the Thomas Kuhn reality of difficulty overcoming pre-existing notions with new insights and awareness.  I live all the time with the John Maynard Keynes corrected quote “The difficulty lays not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”

Resistance to New Ideas

Just as I have been encouraged by Gary Gygax (gaming), Sister Ralph (calculus), Lyman G. Hill, XIII (54 year cycle), Herald Bock and Jerry Rust (politics), Gene Emge (teaching), Peter Bergel (writing), I have been discouraged by others.  Just as my ideas were nourished and flourished in the University of Oregon Eugene political environment up through 1993, I have been generally under-rated and under-appreciated by the Madison Wisconsin University of Wisconsin establishment since then.  There are plenty of exceptions to this broad generalization both ways.  Ageism may play a role, as well as general status difference of an up and coming politician in the eighties in the growing West Coast, versus just another older activist in the stagnant Mid West.

You would think that peace academics would mostly praise and follow up on my extensive work against the military industrial complex, and many do.  Cyber bullying is when a group collectively attacks one person.  Some think three postings a month is too much and use the following words against me:  arrogant, combative, your websites do not meet the threshold I make my students use to write research papers, bragging, claiming to have invented, understanding economics is found in law and ethics not in mathematics, clueless, self-aggrandizement, arrogant self promotion, have you considered running for President, do you ever study nonviolence?, abuse of this list, cherry picking, spamming.

Others say much kinder things:  terrific piece, I’m just saying we ought to all be talking about population and scarce resources a bit more than we do, thank you for your thoughtful and sobering thoughts on selling peace, thanks for getting me back into the loop, so keep up the good work and know that there are people out there who are grateful for your work, you have allies who would agree with you completely, I too think you offer useful insights and support on important issues like the economy and militarism, I appreciate being on your list and enjoy your questions and how you think things through.

I have been amazed at the insularity of many forums at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.  Your status at the University is much more important than your ideas for most of them.  This stands in sharp contrast to places like Oxford or Cambridge where independent scholars are most welcome and appreciated at their numerous forums.

Summary

No new idea is birthed without great difficulty and resistance, and paradigm shifts are often falsely seen as more of the same by some.  Even the new movie “The Distinguished Citizen” has come out showing the difficulties a Nobel Prize winner in Literature experiences in his own home town.  You can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs.  The idea that “if you build a better mousetrap the world will beat a path to your door” doesn’t work without marketing.  Some will complain about self promotion while tolerating it from others on the same list-serve, but actually my several postings about the Nobel Prize quest are very popular on my websites and some complain there is not enough information about myself.  You can never satisfy everyone.

Yes, it pays to read and re-read Thomas Kuhn on Structure of Scientific Revolutions and 10 quotes from that work are included as the seventh and last page of this summary of my main ideas:  https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 4). “Teaching Peace Economics” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Teaching-Peace-Economics,2017119399.aspx

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Texas Hurricane “Harvey”

Harvey on August 25th is the first category four hurricane to hit Texas in the 56 years since Carla on September 11th in 1961.  When the oceanic 27 year half cycle phase of the 54 year Kondratiev cycle comes along, you have to expect repetitive big hurricanes will come along with it.  In American economic and temperature cycle terms the period is 1994 to 2021.  Like its predecessor period, 1940 to 1967, it is a high economic growth cooling temperature period.  In World temperature cycle terms it is 1998 to 2025.  The world predecessor period is 1944 to 1971, with each period starting with a peak temperature above the long term trend line and ending with a trough temperature below the long term trending line.  Ironically, thanks to the new Greenhouse Effect trend line, this period will look like the stable period one quarter century from now in terms of land and the economy, but anything but stable in terms of hurricanes.

Great Hurricane Modern History

The first press releases of this four year press release campaign were about the great Typhoon Haiyan hitting the Philippines in 2013.  This was exactly 54 years after “The 1959 Pacific typhoon season that was regarded as one of the most devastating years for Pacific typhoons on record, with China, Japan and the Philippines sustaining catastrophic losses, (from Wikipedia).”  “One top ten list of Philippines Typhoons has nine of them 1973 or more recent, all during the age of the current strong increase in global warming of the seventies, eighties, and nineties.  Only one other made the top ten, the 1958 typhoon Rita, the only one from the relatively cool fifties and sixties or the twenty year period 1952-1972.  That one is 55 years ago from today’s devastating Typhoon Haiyan suggesting it fits the 55 year cycle discovered by Klyashtorin.”  “Hurricane Sandy of 2012 was the next time the battery in New York flooded after the 1960 event 52 years before.”  “Not included in the above is Hurricane Hugo that dumped 12 inches of rain on North Carolina in September 1989, just 55 years after the last 12 inch North Carolina month of September in 1934.”  These last four quotes are from my November 12, 2013 press release immediately after Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines.  From Wikipedia:  “On making landfall, Haiyan devastated portions of Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines. It is the deadliest Philippine typhoon on record, killing at least 6,300 people in that country alone. In terms of JTWC-estimated 1-minute sustained winds, Haiyan is the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on record.”

Great American Hurricanes

In  2004 PBS broadcast a special suggesting four great tragedies waiting to happen in the United States.  One was a San Francisco earthquake, one was an EF5 tornado hitting Dallas, one was a hurricane hitting New Orleans and the last was a hurricane hitting New York. Those four events have now happened, except that the scale is lower for the San Francisco and Dallas cases.  The EF4 tornado over Dallas suburb Garland on December 26, 2015 was tracking for the downtown Dallas when it lifted.  The F5 over Fort Worth in 1957 is the big one for modern times, suggesting a 58 year cycle.  The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 was easily the most devastating in US history, with the follow-up 83 year later in San Jose much weaker, and the follow-up 108 years later in the Napa Valley weaker still.  108 years is a perfect fit being two 54 year cycles later, 83 is two years off from the three half cycle trend changes perfect of 81 years.

New Orleans had hurricanes in 1893 (2000 deaths) and 1947, 54 year apart, then Katrina (1500 deaths) came four years late in 2005, 58 years later.  Hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012 famously just before the presidential election and two years early after the Battery last flooded 52 years before in 1960.

Texas Hurricanes Harvey and Carla

            Harvey, 56 years after Carla in 1961 is only two years late from a perfect cycle, these are the most recent two category four hurricanes to land on Texas.  Carla was once a CAT 5 but diminished just before landing and quickly dropped to tropical storm level the next day.  Harvey threatens to persist for a week and dump 52 inches of rain over time on Houston, potentially much more devastating, as water is usually more devastating in a hurricane than wind.  This could be worse than Katrina or Sandy in overall impact.  This rainfall greatly exceeded the Hugo levels in 1989 in North Carolina, where 12 inches of rain matches the monthly rainfall total of September 1934 in North Carolina, the same month 55 years before.  That was the first major hurricane after the discovery that the American droughts of 1934 and 1936 were repeating in 1988, starting my whole research effort into the causes of the 54 year cycle.

Summary

Yes, the world temperature cycle exists, yes it works best globally, nearly as well for the US, but very well regionally as well.  My 56 event chart was posted on my academia.edu website in 2013 and included at the end of this general paper about the weather cycle:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5p. from_1997_9p. 2014

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, August 27). “Texas Hurricane ‘Harvey’.” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Texas-Hurricane-Harvey,2017119240.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Military Complete Geography

Wherever the military industrial complex resides it co-opts those around it in many ways.  This release is mainly an analysis of the Fiscal Year 2015 Defense Spending by State published by the US Department of Defense compared with my own prior analyses of related matters.

Military Concentrations in America

Military concentrations by state always start out with the big four, Virginia, Hawaii, Alaska and the District of Columbia.  Then the rest of the top ten are usually Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Connecticut, Alabama and Arizona.  I have looked at 1980, 1984, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2015 over the years.  In 2015 these are all in the top 14, with Kentucky, Maine, and Rhode Island, rising to this top level.  Among the big eight population states, California, Texas, and Florida have consistently been in the high military category, while New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan have been consistently low military, a clear South versus North split.  Indeed, the nation as a whole tends to follow this North versus South split, with few and rare exceptions, except the coastal corners, Washington and New England.  In 1991 dividing the nation into 28 North states and 22 South states, the South had twice the military spending level of the North.  In 2015 the 22 high military spending states had half the US population comparable to the 28 low military spending states.  But the military spending was clearly split 70% in the high states to 30% in the low states.  The lowest military spending region is clearly the Great Lakes states including New York, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.  Other than the Eastern two, these are commonly called the industrial Midwest states.  This is a common pattern among all the states, where the military is high, the manufacturing is low and vice versa.  This is also the common pattern when the military budget is changing, the high military buildup states’ economies move in the opposite direction of the low military high manufacturing states.  This pattern is well understood in military states but rarely understood in manufacturing states. Manufacturing state economic volatility is greater than military states.

Most Militarized States in America

The 2015 report shows three clear high military spending counties in America.  Fairfax in Northern Virginia where the CIA and Pentagon are nearby, San Diego California where the Pacific fleet is based, and Tarrant County Texas where the F-35 aircraft is manufactured by number one defense contractor Lockheed Martin in the Fort Worth western suburb of Dallas.  Fort Worth is located in Texas Congressional District 12 of the chair of the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee, while Texas District 13 adjacent to 12 has the chair of the House Armed Services Committee.  Former President Bush awarded the F-35 contract to his home state, a very common political practice.  But while the $15.3 Billion for San Diego, and the $13.6 Billion for Forth Worth’s County look very impressive, the Fairfax Virginia total of $17.0 Billion is just a part of the $25.7 Billion including adjacent Virginia Counties, and the $44.1 Billion in the DC metro area including ten entities in DC, Maryland, and Virginia.  No wonder the nation’s capital has seven of the nation’s richest counties located there, with various studies showing one third higher pay for military contractors:  white collar, blue collar, and engineers,  compared to other manufacturing.  Other studies show defense consultants making multiples of medical doctor pay.

States Ranked by Large Military Complex

  1. Virginia (per capita #1) has the largest cluster with $25.7 billion in Northern Virginia with the CIA and Pentagon. It also has the second largest with $16.8 billion in Southern Virginia.for the Atlantic fleet. Virginia has three members sitting on the four key military committees, including the former vice presidential candidate Senator Kaine (D-VA). Senator Warner (D-VA) is ranking member on Intelligence, a key committee looking into the Russian election tampering.
  2. California (per capita #23) has the third largest cluster with $15.3 billion in the San Diego base of Pacific fleet. The Los Angeles metro cluster is $14.7 billion including the site of the San Bernadino terrorist attack and Santa Clara Sacramento worth $11.3 billion includes Silicon Valley. California has 10 members on the key four committees lead by Senator Feinstein (D-CA) on Defense Appropriations while Senator Boxer has just retired from Armed Services.
  3. Texas (per capita #20) has that famous Fort Worth aircraft factory $13.6 billion ($12.6 billion Lockheed Martin) that Kennedy was on the way to when he died. Johnson had the F-111 rebid twice before taking the bid from Boeing. House Speaker Wright came from that district when the Cold War ended. Texas has both House chairs of the four key military committees and eight members all told including Senator Cruz (R-TX) on Armed Services.
  4. Maryland (per capita #5) has $11.2 billion in four counties in the DC area, Lockheed Martin has $1.5 billion and John Hopkins University (foreign policy) has $0.7 billion, two House members on key military committees. Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) ranking Foreign Relations.
  5. Missouri (per capita #10) has $7.6 billion in St. Louis, Boeing $6.4 billion, where the F-15 was built. Dick Gephart represented that district when he ran for president in1988 and won the Iowa Caucus. Back then St. Louis was the top military spending per capita large metro area in America. Republican House members Hartzler and Graves are on Armed Services, Senator McCaskill (D-MO) on Armed Services, and Senator Blount (R-MO) on Defense Appropriations.
  6. District of Columbia (per capita #6 if it were a state) has $7.2 billion. No Senators or voting congressperson, no statehood, Georgetown University #1 for CIA internships.
  7. Alabama (per capita #4) has Madison County with Huntsville Space Center $7.1 billion. Alabama has seven members on the four key committees, including a Senator on each key committee. Senator Shelby (R-AL) Defense Appropriations is also the chair of the all powerful Senate Rules Committee.
  8. Hawaii (per capita #2) has $6.8 billion spent in Honolulu. Four members serve on the key committees including a Senator on each one. Courageous Senator Hirono (D-HI) voted on the key Health Care bill even though she has stage four kidney cancer.
  9. Massachusetts (per capita #17) Middlesex County has $6.1 billion (Raytheon $3.9 billion, MIT $1.6 billion). Senator Warren and Congresspersons Tsongas (D-MA) and Moulton all sit on Armed Services. Warren (D-MA) and Moulton (D-MA) have presidential ambitions.
  10. Pennsylvania (per capita #27) Philadelphia Counties $6.0 billion, two House Armed Services.
  11. Connecticut (per capita #9) has $5.6 billion for United Technologies in Fairfield and Hartford. Senator Blumenthal (D-CT) and Congressperson Courtney sit on Armed Services.
  12. Ohio (per capita #35) belt of Southwest Counties $5.5 billion, Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) ranking member on Banking, four House members, two each, on key military committees.
  13. Arizona (per capita #12) Puma County has $4.9 billion with Raytheon $4.2 billion of that. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) is chair of Armed Services with four House members on Armed Services.
  14. Washington (per capita #14) King County $4.7 billion (Boeing $4.1 billion) has Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) former Budget chair sitting on Defense Appropriations with two House members on Armed Services. Research for drones is done principally in Washington.
  15. North Carolina (per capita #26) Cumberland County area (Fayetteville, Fort Bragg) $4.6 billion, Senator Tillis (R-NC) Armed Services Committee, Jones (R-NC) on House Armed Services.
  16. Colorado (per capita #15) has $4.3 billion spent in El Paso County, home of the Air Force Academy. Only two House members (R-CO) on Armed Services.
  17. Kentucky (per capita #8) has $4.2 billion in Jefferson County (Louisville) where Humana has $3.8 billion. Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) on Defense Appropriations with Rogers on House Defense Appropriations. No wonder Leader cares so much about Health Care.
  18. Florida (per capita #24), Orange County (Orlando) $3.9 billion, Lockheed Martin $2.5 billion, Senator Nelson (D-FL) sits on Armed Services and is ranking member on Science (Space), one House Defense Appropriations, and two House Armed Services.
  19. Illinois (per capita #42) Cook Lake DuPage $3.7 billion, Senator Dick Durbin ranking member Armed Services only military committee.
  20. Georgia (per capita #19), Cobb Fulton Counties (Marietta, Atlanta suburb, Kennesaw State) $3.4 billion, Lockheed Martin $2.6 billion, long gone are the Senator Nunn days for Georgia, today only three people sit on the four key military committees. Senator Perdue (R-GA) sits on Armed Services, House has Graves on Defense Appropriation and Scott on Armed Services.
  21. Minnesota (per capita #32), Hennepin County area (Minneapolis) $4.0 billion, United Health Group $2.8 billion, McCollum (D-MN) on House Defense Appropriations, only military.
  22. New Jersey (per capita #36), Burlington County area $3.0 billion, $1.6 billion Lockheed Martin, Lobiando (R-NJ) Norcross (D-NJ) both on House Armed Services.
  23. New York (per capita #49), Long Island Counties $2.9 billion, Senator Gillibrand (D-NY) and two House members all three on Armed Services.
  24. Oklahoma (per capita #18), $2.7 billion in Oklahoma County area, Senator Inhofe (R-OK) sits on Armed Services, with three in the House: Cole on Defense Appropriations; Bridenstine and Russell on Armed Services.
  25. Mississippi (per capita #6), Jackson County (Pascagoula) $2.5 billion, HuntingtonIngalls $2.0 billion, Senator Cockran (R-MS) chairs Defense Appropriations, Senator Wicker (R-MS) on Armed Services, and House Kelly (R-MS) sits on Armed Services.
  1. Utah (per capita #22), Salt Lake area $2.2 billion, Bishop (R-UT) House Armed Services.
  2. Alaska (per capita #3) Anchorage Borough $2.0 billion, Senator Murkowski (R-AK) on Appropriations and Senator Sullivan (R-AK) on Armed Services, none on House Committees.
  3. Rhode Island (per capita #11), Five Counties $1.9 billion, Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) is the ranking member of Armed Services and also on Senate Defense Appropriations combines with the state’s only congressperson Langevin (D-RI) on House Armed Services.
  4. Michigan (per capita #48), Detroit Counties $1.8 billion, Senator Peters (D-MI) Armed Services.
  5. New Mexico (per capita #13), Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) $1.7 billion, Senators Udall (D-NM) Defense Appropriations, Senator Heinrich (D-NM) Armed Services (Emerging Threats ranking member), none from House.
  6. Louisiana (per capita #29), Orleans Parish area $1.7 billion, Abraham (R-LA) House Armed Services
  7. South Carolina (per capita #16), Charleston County $1.6 billion, Senator Graham on both Armed Services and Defense Appropriations, Wilson on House Armed Services.
  8. Indiana (per capita #33), Marion County $1.4 billion, Senator Donnelly (R-IN) & House Banks (R-IN) Armed Services, Visclosky (D-IN) ranking member House Defense Appropriations.
  9. Nebraska (per capita #31), Omaha area $1.3 billion, Fisher (R-NE) and Sasse (R-NE) on Senate Armed Services, Bacon (R-NE) House Armed Services.
  10. New Hampshire (per capita #25), Hillsborough Rockingham $1.3 billion, Senator Shaheen (D-NH) Armed Services, House Shea-Porter Armed Services.
  11. Nevada (per capita #28), Clark County $1.2 billion, Rosen (D-NV) House Armed Services.
  12. Kansas (per capita #21), Sedgwick (Wichita) $1.1 billion, Geary (Fort Riley) $1.1 billion, Boeing $0.3 billion, Raytheon $0.2 billion, Senator Moran (R-KS) Defense Appropriations.
  13. Maine (per capita #7), Sagadahoc County $1.1 billion, General Dynamics $1.1 billion, Senators Collins (R-ME) on Defense Appropriations and King (I-ME) on Armed Services, no House.
  14. Wisconsin (per capita #45), Winnebago County $1 billion, Oshkosh Truck $1 billion, Senator Baldwin (D-WI) on Defense Appropriations, Gallagher (R-WI) on House Armed Services.
  15. Arkansas (per capita #34), Pulaski County area $0.8 billion, Senator Cotton (R-AR) Armed Services, Womack (R-AR) House Defense Appropriations.
  16. Iowa (per capita #44), Linn County (Cedar Rapids) $0.8 billion, Senator Ernst (R-IA) chairs the Armed Services subcommittee on Threats.
  17. Oregon (per capita #50), Portland area $0.8 billion, Nobody on military committees.
  18. Tennessee (per capita #46), Coffee area $0.7 billion, Senator Alexander (R-TN) and Two Members on House Armed Services.
  19. North Dakota (per capita #30), Ward County $0.4 billion, Nobody on key military committees.
  20. Delaware (per capita #38), Kent County $0.4 billion, Nobody on key military committees
  21. Idaho (per capita #41), Elmore County area $0.4 billion, Nobody on key military committees.
  22. Montana (per capita #37), Cascade County $0.3 billion, Daines (R-MT) Tester (D-MT) Senate Defense Appropriations.
  23. South Dakota (per capita #39), Pennington County area $0.3 billion, Senator Rounds (R-SD) on Armed Services
  24. Wyoming (per capita #43), Laramie $0.3 billion, Cheney (R-WY) House Armed Services
  25. Vermont (per capita #40), Chittenden County area $0.2 billion, Senator Leahy (D-VT) Defense Appropriations
  26. West Virginia (per capita #47), Kanawha County $0.2 billion, Nobody on military committees

  

Summary

High military states lead 80 to 42 in holding key military committee assignments and have about the same share of military spending.  Many large Northern states have little or no representation on the key military committees, thinking the defense budget doesn’t affect their state.  Nothing could be further from the truth as huge amounts of research and capital are drained from manufacturing in the low military states during military buildups.  Likewise, upper Midwest industrial states prosper greatly when the military is lowered.  But this is the best kept secret around, as few peace studies programs study regional economics.  The low military half of America lost three times as many jobs as the high military states in the two years after 9-11-01. Construction was twice as strong in the industrial Midwest states three years after the Cold War ended in 1994. The “Hole in the Donut” nature of military spending is essential to understand how the military economy can boost some local economies while depleting other (mainly inland) regions, depleting all other manufacturing, and slowing the national economy.  Here is the link to that story:

https://www.academia.edu/5740273/MIDWEST_and_the_Military_3_pages_2005

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016,                                                                                                                    and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

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