History Repeats, 1852, 2014
On this day three Kondratiev Waves ago, that is 162 years ago, three times fifty-four years ago, Harriet Beecher Stowe published Uncle Tom’s Cabin, the most read American book of the whole nineteenth century. That would be March 20, 1852 nine years before the American Civil War. President Abraham Lincoln greeted Harriet Beecher Stowe in 1862 by saying “So you’re the little woman who wrote the book that started this great war.” This novel described black people as human beings and inspired many Southern attempts to thwart its impact with their own novels. This novel was the real launch of the abolitionist movement against slavery in America.
The American War cycle component of the worldwide Kondratiev Wave 54 year cycle would expect a secondary war start date in 1790, 1844, 1898, 1952, and 2006. The primary war, as measured by the amount of death, start date would be 1808, 1862, 1916, 1970, and 2024. In the 1790 to 1808 period was the French Revolution in 1789, one year early, and the Napoleonic Wars starting in 1803, five years early, and the American War of 1812, four years late. June 1812 was the start date of James Madison’s second war of independence and Napoleon’s invasion of Russia, with its massive loss of life. The war of 1812 started with provocations by Britain of conscripting Americans for sailors for their Navy as early as 1803, the same nine years before the war as in the case of Uncle Tom’s Cabin.
The Civil War era began with the Mexican American War of 1846 two years late, or the Texas rebellion 1845, one year late. Then abolition got the great boost from the immensely popular and influential book Uncle Tom’s Cabin in 1852 leading up to the Civil War in 1861, one year early.
The war period 1998 to 1916 started with the Spanish American War right on schedule, and the worldwide secondary war of the time, Russo-Japanese War, in 1904, ten years before the World War of 1914, like the British conscription nine years early or the great novel nine years before the Civil War. Then the World War was two years early for Europe and one year late for America around the 1916 expected date.
Fifty four years ago in 1960 we were in the period between Korea and Vietnam, Korea two years early, and Vietnam five years early. 1960 was the election where Kennedy beat Nixon with the “missile gap” claim one or two years after the Russian provocations of shooting down Gary Powers U-2 spy plane or the launch of the first satellite, Sputnik, by Russia. This was one year away from the Bay of Pigs and the Berlin Wall. Two years later in 1962 the world came its closest ever to nuclear war in the Cuban Missile Crisis. 1960 was four years after the Soviet crushing of the Hungarian Revolt and the British French Israeli war of the Suez Canal. 1960 was nine years before the very serious Sino-Soviet border clashes that might have been the big war of the time had it not been for the nuclear weapons fear of mutual assured destruction. Not to mention the Cultural Revolution of 1966 in China, race riots in America in 1965 and 1968, and the police riot of the Chicago Democratic Convention in 1968, the same year as French student riots. Clearly the world was at high tension in this period.
Today we have the Iraq War three years early, the usual two decades before the anticipated major war of 2024. Ten years before that major war date of 2024 we have disputed island claims in the South China Sea between China, Japan, and Australia, and Russia taking Crimea from Ukraine. Tension is building once again, as the Kondratiev Wave cycle of history repeats itself.
Here’s a link to 56 events of the war cycle, weather war cycle, and other events:
Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein 608-230-6640