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Archive for the month “March, 2014”

Uncle Tom’s Cabin, War History

History Repeats, 1852, 2014

On this day three Kondratiev Waves ago, that is 162 years ago, three times fifty-four years ago, Harriet Beecher Stowe published Uncle Tom’s Cabin, the most read American book of the whole nineteenth century.  That would be March 20, 1852 nine years before the American Civil War.  President Abraham Lincoln greeted Harriet Beecher Stowe in 1862 by saying “So you’re the little woman who wrote the book that started this great war.”  This novel described black people as human beings and inspired many Southern attempts to thwart its impact with their own novels.  This novel was the real launch of the abolitionist movement against slavery in America.

The American War cycle component of the worldwide Kondratiev Wave 54 year cycle would expect a secondary war start date in 1790, 1844, 1898, 1952, and 2006.  The primary war, as measured by the amount of death, start date would be 1808, 1862, 1916, 1970, and 2024.  In the 1790 to 1808 period was the French Revolution in 1789, one year early, and the Napoleonic Wars starting in 1803, five years early, and the American War of 1812, four years late.  June 1812 was the start date of James Madison’s second war of independence and Napoleon’s invasion of Russia, with its massive loss of life.  The war of 1812 started with provocations by Britain of conscripting Americans for sailors for their Navy as early as 1803, the same nine years before the war as in the case of Uncle Tom’s Cabin.

The Civil War era began with the Mexican American War of 1846 two years late, or the Texas rebellion 1845, one year late.  Then abolition got the great boost from the immensely popular and influential book Uncle Tom’s Cabin in 1852 leading up to the Civil War in 1861, one year early.

The war period 1998 to 1916 started with the Spanish American War right on schedule, and the worldwide secondary war of the time, Russo-Japanese War, in 1904, ten years before the World War of 1914, like the British conscription nine years early or the great novel nine years before the Civil War.  Then the World War was two years early for Europe and one year late for America around the 1916 expected date.

Fifty four years ago in 1960 we were in the period between Korea and Vietnam, Korea two years early, and Vietnam five years early.  1960 was the election where Kennedy beat Nixon with the “missile gap” claim one or two years after the Russian provocations of shooting down Gary Powers U-2 spy plane or the launch of the first satellite, Sputnik, by Russia.  This was one year away from the Bay of Pigs and the Berlin Wall.  Two years later in 1962 the world came its closest ever to nuclear war in the Cuban Missile Crisis.  1960 was four years after the Soviet crushing of the Hungarian Revolt and the British French Israeli war of the Suez Canal.  1960 was nine years before the very serious Sino-Soviet border clashes that might have been the big war of the time had it not been for the nuclear weapons fear of mutual assured destruction.  Not to mention the Cultural Revolution of 1966 in China, race riots in America in 1965 and 1968, and the police riot of the Chicago Democratic Convention in 1968, the same year as French student riots.  Clearly the world was at high tension in this period.

Today we have the Iraq War three years early, the usual two decades before the anticipated major war of 2024.  Ten years before that major war date of 2024 we have disputed island claims in the South China Sea between China, Japan, and Australia, and Russia taking Crimea from Ukraine.  Tension is building once again, as the Kondratiev Wave cycle of history repeats itself.

Here’s a link to 56 events of the war cycle, weather war cycle, and other events:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein  608-230-6640

www.realeconomy.com   bobreuschlein@gmail.com

First Course Peace Economics

A CPA friend of mine, Gene Emge, had found a way to teach Beyond War as a course at the local University of Oregon.  Their Innovative Education Department allowed off campus people to teach a Pass/Fail only class if a professor approves the course.  So I went to the Economics Department Chair and asked about teaching this as an economics course, and he said “that’s politics, ask Political Science.”  So I went to the Political Science Department head and he said “that’s economics.”  So I went to Sociology and a friend of mine from peace demonstrations, Bob O’Brien, was the Chair.  He said “that’s great, we have three professors in political economy, talk to them and get one of them to approve the course and we’ll do it. And by the way we agree that military spending hurts the economy.”  So I had taken a Causes of War course from David Milton, who had received his Ph.D. from Berkeley, and he liked my creative argument on the final exam for a fourth cause (man, the state, and system of states were the three in the textbook) of economics, so approval went smoothly.

On class registration day of Spring Term 1987 I passed out hundreds of flyers and eleven students took the two credit course Peace Economics listed in Sociology.  Three of the eleven were from Arab Oil States majoring in economics, and one of them went on to graduate school at the University of Wisconsin.  The Arabs all loved the course and had a glow in their eyes whenever I ran into them on campus.  Another student was taking a course with Robert Heilbroner’s book of The Great Economic Thinkers, mainly of the nineteenth century.  My student said that I should be in that book.  This also happened in a hallway, not in class.  I received above department averages for course evaluations.

My second class was approved by Val Burris who received his Ph.D. from Princeton because David Milton went on sabbatical.  I had taken a Power Structure class from Val and chose the Secretaries of Defense and State to analyze for the term paper.  They all came from Harvard and Defense was almost always the dove and State the hawk in internal deliberations.  Unfortunately, several things happened in the Fall 1987 three credit course time period.  Well it’s who you know, not what you know that counts, so with Bob O’Brien on sabbatical I got a letter from someone I’d never met telling me that I “could not tell people I was teaching at the University of Oregon.”  I thought that was ridiculous.  Sociology could insist I list the Department of Innovative Instruction as my Department, but I certainly wasn’t teaching at LaneCommunity College.  Was this retaliation because I did not acknowledge a football player who enrolled but never showed up for class, so I did nothing, no grade, no adverse disposition, I just ignored the item, for that absent student?  Who knows.  When I finished that second class I transferred to political friend Carl Hosticka’s Department of Public Policy and Management for the third class, Fall 1989, now open to graduate students and for three credits.

After that, I gave up.  A dozen students at a time would not change the world, so instead I took an offer from Peter Bergel to write a monthly column on Peace Economics for the Oregon PeaceWorker, circulation 10,000.  All the Democratic Congresspeople from Oregon knew about my column.  That began in November 1989 and lasted until April 1997.  I completed and published about 60 columns all in all.  Many of those columns are in my 1999 100 page book Real Economics, a companion for the website realeconomy.com launched in 1999.  Time demands forced me to drop the column to begin twenty-five 25 minute long tapes for my second course, with a new heavy environmental component on cycle theory, called Weather, Wealth, and Wars.  This was offered through University of the Air, Radio for Peace International, a shortwave radio station broadcasting to the world from Costa Rica.  The first airing was April to June 1997, the second January to March 1998.  About 100 students took that course over the years until RFPI closed in 2004, with countless other listeners, so I was finally reaching the world with my unique empirical findings and message.  Transcripts of that course form the backbone of my latest book manuscript I am currently working with.

Here is the modern syllabus for the class now called Empire and Climate Economics:

https://www.academia.edu/5415281/CLASS_Empire_and_Climate_Economics_31_classdays

Brief daily class content descriptions are included in this syllabus.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein  608-230-6640

www.realeconomy.com   bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Peace Economics First Book

In January 1986 I returned from my first radio, TV, and newspaper interviews out of state and began writing THE book. By now I had proven the concept the proverbial six ways to Sunday, as Harold Bock, a political colleague of mine later paraphrased, and another political friend,  Frank Arundel, let me write the book on his MacIntosh in the basement of one of his rentals in Eugene, Oregon.  I knew it had to be 50 pages to be considered a book, so I wrote 50 large 8.5” by 11” pages.  I started with Sivard’s international comparison over nineteen years.  The raw correlation was 0.81, robust.  Dropping the obvious outlier, Canada, the correlation jumped to a near perfect 0.98.  Next I combined the nations, weighted average by continents.  The continents of North America and Europe with Japan a third, with two degrees of freedom, left a stunning correlation of 0.997, a perfect 1.00 to two decimal points.  Canada was no longer an outlier, at 10% the economy of the US; it was pulled down by US militarism, while the US was slightly lifted up by Canada.  In Europe, the farthest two nations from the tradeoff line were France, lifted up by EU agriculture subsidies, and Britain, weighted down by exclusion from EU until the last four years of the nineteen year period.  The process of amazing corollaries springing up from the uncanny accuracy had begun.  Eventually I got used to it and starting beginning to expect it, but this took a long time to get over the stunning accuracy.  More lessons emerged from Sivard’s capital investment and military spending study three years after the first.  A 0.993 correlation resulted and I began to recognize military spending as lost capital as well as wasted manufacturing.  Seymour Melman thought the weapons production was the lost manufacturing, but this data was showing that military spending “as a whole” was a kind of factory with an output lost to the consumer economy and used instead for political power projection.  That was the only way it all made sense as I saw it.  The book had sixteen chapters, some only one page, as I did not want to leave out important concepts even if sketchy at first.

I had help with the title.  I wrote a long list of possible titles and read them one by one over the phone to the initial Costco marketing genius, my friend, Frank Arundel.  When I came to “peace economics” he said “that’s it” and we settled on that name.  I knew the horrible term “economic conversion” needed to be replaced for two reasons.  One was that no one wants a religious person on their doorstep trying to convert them.  The other was that converting military factories over to other purposes is rarely successful.  Letting the engineers scientists and capital seek other opportunities works much better and smoother, and is better for the economy.  Besides, the historical record suggests it happens immediately and automatically in today’s capitalistic economy, so there is no need to try and do it the hard way.  Only in rare cases is the reduction too much for the economy to swallow immediately, such as the period 1990-1992 when unemployment increased.  Normally unemployment decreases with lower military spending such as 1993-1999, and increases with higher military spending such as in 1982.

I took Kinko’s copies of the book used to file the copyright and sold them in WashingtonDC at a Rainbow Coalition Convention in April 1987.  A man from American Government Employees Union bought one on credit for $20 (when I visited him in his office after the conference) and never paid me.  I visited Ruth Leger Sivard on her doorstep in Georgetown and left her with a shocked look on her face as I was leaving; telling her that all Cold War elected presidents came from high military spending states.

So I slightly reduced the book to 48 pages for a web press paperback edition at $800 for 5000 copies.  At a cost of just 15 cents each I could sell or give away as I pleased.  The first sales were in Eugene’s AltonBakerPark on Hiroshima Day 1986.  I sold maybe a dozen or two that day to eager Peaceniks who knew of me from my many activities in the area.  Later excited readers told me how they had sent copies off to this institute or that, or Senator Kennedy, or others.  The next year I ran into an academic at a BostonCollege institute I visited who was convinced he had actually heard of me somehow.  I kept the price a reasonable two dollars.  In later years I developed the practice of selling for $5 in off election years and often giving them away in election years.  I sold maybe 2000, gave away another 2000 and have several hundred left.  I now sell the pdf of the book for $10.  The rest will be collectors’ items someday soon.

Here is the modern 24 page updated booklet for the twenty-fifth anniversary DVD of Peace Economics, free on my academic website:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/PEACE_ECONOMICS_booklet

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein  608-230-6640

www.realeconomy.com   bobreuschlein@gmail.com

OR here is the kiosk commentary link (for audio click orange arrow at bottom of listing):
http://www.wortfm.org/wednesday-march-19-2014/

James Madison and War of 1812

My ancestor William Markham became Archbishop of York in 1776 the same year America declared its independence from Britain.  He was a fierce critic of pamphleteer Richard Price concerning the American rebellion. My ancestor Claron de Marsham was William the Conqueror’s top general.  Grandfather William H. Markham and my middle name show that William is a long term family name in the Markham clan.  But Archbishop Markham died in 1807 so he failed to see the James Madison Presidency and the War of 1812, although his son was a major naval figure. The anti-American attitude didn’t last too long in the family as one of the Archbishop’s grandsons came to Wisconsin in 1834 and I am now a fourth generation Wisconsinite on both sides of the family.

War cycle theory indicates 1808 was the anticipated date for a major war.  Europe came early at 1803 with the start of the Napoleonic Wars.  America came late with the War of 1812.  Mass conscription during the Napoleonic Wars was so vile that Europe mostly skipped the major war cycle due in 1862.  But America had its only European level of deaths in that Civil war.  Later, the memory of severe war a century old, Europe stumbled into triple death levels in the world wars.

The so-called Second War of Independence for America was little noted in Britain in comparison to the much bigger Napoleonic Wars.  I will tell the tale of my family, James Madison, and the War of 1812 this Saturday March 15, 10am at Sequoya Library, on Madison’s West Side at the corner of Midvale and Tokay.  We will be celebrating the 263rd Anniversary of James Madison’s birth.

For more cyclic war events see the war and weather war schedules here:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_56List

To hear WORT fm  audio (Orange Arrow at bottom of page) if not near radio at 5am, 6:30am, 9am, 2pm:

http://www.wortfm.org/wednesday-march-12-2014/

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein

www.realeconomy.com   bobreuschlein@gmail.com   608-230-6640

How Peace Economics Starts

In 1978 I began my career in politics determined to be president someday.  But I failed in my first run for office, County Commissioner in 1980.  So I got involved in the Democratic Party.  In 1981 I began working in the Oregon State Legislature as an intern and returned in 1983 and 1985 as a public interest lobbyist who convinced the public employee retirement fund to invest 5% in venture capital.

In March of 1983 I went to a meeting of the Fellowship of Reconciliation held at Dorothy Patch’s house.  Dorothy Patch was the Salem, Oregon power behind Republican US Senator Mark Hatfield, who was the Chairman of Appropriations and the only no vote against the first Reagan military buildup budget that passed 99-1.  Dorothy was a devoted United Nations person who got the Salem city council to fly the UN flag alongside the US flag and Oregon flag.  A young lady named Ada Sanchez gave me a brochure at that meeting that showed in a block chart by Ruth Leger Sivard over a twenty year period that G7 nations with higher military spending had slower economic growth.  Specifically, the higher the percent of the economy in military spending the lower the rate of manufacturing productivity growth.

This was a direct refutation of the military Keynesianism I learned in school.  I excitedly posted blown up copies of this bar chart all over the legislature.  Two years later after the 1985 session ended, I was going through my papers and saw this chart again.  I realized something was wrong, the world was not recognizing this new reality for some reason.  So I set out to test this finding every way I could.  I endlessly added various multiyear averagings of each temperature or economic statistics history to find the long term patterns.  I kept these and other useful statistics by country to my notebook from August to December.   In December I wrote the 35 page “You Can Have Military Spending or Economic Growth, But Not Both” with my findings and shared them with the county commissioners.  One immediately offered to refer my publication for the Pulitzer Prize.  Next I worked out the US model of this theory and tested it over a sixty year period.  I was shocked to have the model work out the first time, I had so carefully calculated the parameters that they did not have to be altered to fit.  Years later, I realized this meant no degrees of freedom deduction in the statistical calculation.  But even with a degrees of freedom deduction, the model was highly accurate, perfecting out every nine years.  Then began the long hard struggle for credibility.  And here, decades later, I am finally beginning to overcome all obstacles and smoothly answer all the issues that have perplexed me for so long.

Here is the modern one page summary of my thirty years of study and growth:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein  608-230-6640

www.realeconomy.com   bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Ukraine Crimea History Context

Everyone knows the Charge of the Light Brigade from the 1856 Crimean War between Britain and Russia.  In 54 year cycle terms that is three cycles ago.  Three times 54 years is 162 years.  1856 plus 162 is 2018, so the current event fits the repetition cycle but four years early.  Actually this reminds me more of the 1956 Soviet crushing of the Hungarian liberation movement.  That plus 54 is 2010, so this is early or late depending on these two scenarios.  However it’s right on target for the average of these two scenarios. When Khrushchev took Crimea from Russia in 1954, he did it as the first non Russian leader of the Soviet Union, and a Ukrainian to boot.  Why is that theft treated as acceptable today?

The war cycle, when I plotted it out in a thousand year record, would have 93% of the major war and 93% of the secondary war events happening in the half cycle 27 years from 2004 to 2031.  Note that Iraq snuck in there one year early, but the secondary war tends to be three years earlier for fast rising power America than for more settled Europe.  The 1000 year data set is 500 years of Europe, 200 years of America, and 300 years of Rome all plotted on a common current time scale.  And always note that the cycle is common for Europe and America for the major war, no three year gap.  As always in long cycle analysis, the accuracy is strongest for the strongest events, and this Ukraine event does not seem to be a major or secondary war scenario, more of a tertiary war, like the 1956 Hungary or 1956 Suez would be.  Note these events were halfway between secondary Korea 1950and primary Vietnam 1965 for the United States in the last cycle.

1808, 1862, 1916, and 1970 were the last anticipated dates for major wars.

In 1808 Europe came early at 1803 with the start of the Napoleonic Wars.  America came late with the War of 1812.  In 1862 the US came right on schedule one year early with the Civil War at 1861.  In Europe, #1 power Britain came early by six years with Crimea in 1856, and #2 power Prussia came eight years late with the Franco-Prussian War of 1870.  This was mirrored a century later around 1970 with #1 power early five years with Vietnam in 1965 and #2 power nine years late with Afghanistan in 1979.  The big one averted then, probably because of nukes, was the 1969 Sino-Soviet border clashes, and then there was the worldwide social ferment of the year 1968 (China, France, United States).  In 1916 the World War came two years early in Europe and one year late in the United States.  Also, this is the beginning of the 1914-1945 World War as many see it, with famed economist John Maynard Keynes on the British negotiating team in Versailles later writing a book that this Versailles Treaty would lead to another war.  That happened because the #3 power in Europe, France, drove the outcome, and in true Peter Principle fashion blew it like many over-promoted people do.  Usually the hegemonic war is between #1 and #2, not sour grapes from 1870 #3.  So a modern thirty years war resulted, with the second part of the war after a 21 year bitter build up.  Note also the violence level escalation of the world wars.  As Joshua Goldstein notes in his Long Cycles book (1987) the level of deaths in major wars was about 1.5% of the European population until the 5% level of each World War.  The mass conscription of the Napoleonic Era produced wars so terrible Europe skipped a major war at the time of America’s only war at the 1% deaths level, the Civil War.  But then war came back with a vengeance in the World Wars.  War was so bad then that Europe has had an extended peace this time.  Let’s hope we’ve learned our lessons and forego war like Sweden after an extra bitter 30 years war, rather than just postpone and double down like Europe between the Napoleanic Era and the World Wars.

So today we are in the cycle equivalent of 1960, between the Hungary and Czechoslovakia crushings, after Korea (now Iraq) and before Vietnam and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, in the dark period of high war tensions between the Suez 1956 and the Six Days War 1967 of the Middle East tinderbox.  Look out for 2024 (average) or 2025 (mode) major war to come.  Let’s not let our politicians get carried away when it’s time for the big one.

For proof of the cycle if you are a skeptic see this first:

https://www.academia.edu/4090273/TEMPERATURE_Adjusted_for_Cycle

For more cyclic war events see the war and weather war schedules here:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_56List

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein  608-230-6640

www.realeconomy.com

bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Horicon Marsh and Grandpa

Grandpa Starts Horicon Marsh, Largest Cattail Marsh in the USA

Lest anyone question my environmental roots, let me tell you how the Horicon National Wildlife Refuge was started, one of three national parks in Wisconsin.  William is my middle name, named for grandfather William H. Markham, who called himself the bard of Horicon after writing a book of poems, including one on me called “Bobby, My Baby Boy.”  William was born in Independence, Wisconsin, December 13, 1888, and went to Law School at the University of Minnesota, where he was valedictorian in 1911.  He married Mae of Mayville (where the Horicon Marsh visitor center is located), a second cousin of Joe Kennedy the father of President Kennedy.  My mother was very proud to be one fourth Irish.  He was admitted to the Minnesota bar and practiced law in that state until 1913, when he moved to Horicon, Wisconsin. There Markham served as city attorney and alderman before being elected mayor and state senator from the 13th district in 1926.  In 1927, in my grandfather’s first great legislative success, “the Wisconsin State Legislature, after pressure from conservationists beginning in 1921, passed the Horicon Marsh Wildlife Refuge Bill, providing for the construction of a dam to raise the water to normal levels and for the acquisition of the land by the government.” (from Horicon Marsh Wiki).  Also from the Wiki:  “Millions of waterfowl, including over 200,000 Canada geese, migrate through the marsh.”

 

Nikolai Kondratiev, born March 4, 1892, the first to write about the 54 year cycle in 1922, was a contemporary of my grandfather a continent away.  His major work was written in 1926, the year of grandpa’s State Senate election.  But Kondratiev’s work was always consigned to economic “theory”.  He suffered the double whammy of being from Russia, a foreign country considered communist, and being executed by Stalin for Leninist policies of freedom for small business and anti-Marxist claims that capitalism was not ending in the twenties and thirties, but only down then, to later resurrect in the forties fifties and sixties.  This unpopular prediction cost him his life in exile in Siberia, September 17, 1938, and earned him little credit in the West.  Now with my research into the Earth Cycle of 54 years and into links between the climate change, economic, and political war systems I am expecting to vindicate his great effort and show how pervasive and true are the applications of the 54 year cycle.

 

Skeptics of cycle theory turn into believers when they see this graph:

https://www.academia.edu/4090273/TEMPERATURE_Adjusted_for_Cycle

 

As for the family, grandpa went on to run for Secretary of State in 1948, his last hurrah in politics.  Unfortunately he lost to the incumbent in the primary.  That incumbent went on to be governor when the governor died in office.  So no governor in the family.  But there are a few British Admirals and one American Admiral, a cousin of my mother.  And a lady in waiting to Queen Victoria and six generations back an Archbishop of Canterbury.  Way back our ancestor Claron de Marsham was William the Conqueror’s top general.  On the Reuschlein side a lot of knights and priests in Germany back then and an uncle and two cousins who were engineers now.  But I guess I’ve got a little German scientist in me and one person in three thousand has my math aptitude.  Grandfather taught my oldest cousin and my older brother how to play checkers, but I beat them both on my own.  And my German father, a CPA, ended up much richer than my grandfather, who died when I was eight.

I will tell the tale of grandpa, Kondratiev, and my development of the Earth Cycle on March 8, 10am at Sequoya Library on Madison’s West Side just East of the ResearchPark at the corner of Midvale and Tokay on top of the hill.  We will be celebrating the 122nd Anniversary of Kondratiev’s birth.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein

www.realeconomy.com

bobreuschlein@gmail.com

608-230-6640

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