bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the month “July, 2018”

Climate Theories Clarified

Today’s climate change discussion has become contentious in America.  Those that try to deny the reality of the Greenhouse Effect have so put the scientists in a box that they have been over-reacting defensively.  Without the Greenhouse Effect our world would be an ice ball.  That’s 16 degrees cooler Celsius or 29 degrees cooler Fahrenheit.  Melting the ice over Greenland or Antarctica would raise the oceans enough to endanger half the world’s population.  So the crisis is not trivial, yet not all the information is out there and the science is not complete.  Fake science from the fossil fuels industry is a real challenge, and because of this fake science, some real science is being misjudged, overlooked, or even attacked.  I dare to set the record straight at the risk of being labelled a climate denier, which I am not.

Greenhouse Effect Clarified

In 1828 when the first research discovered that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can raise temperatures, it was also discovered that each doubling of the carbon dioxide raised the temperature a fixed amount.  So there are diminishing returns on the Greenhouse Effect.  This was demonstrated by a student paper using a climate model that showed when he exceeded the professor’s instructions to go out one hundred years only, and instead went out two hundred years, he discovered that the effects leveled off in the second century.

In my Unitarian church group in Eugene Oregon USA, in the early nineties, I had a professor friend who taught Biology.  One day he stated that the environment is getting so bad that in about a decade we are going to face real disasters.  Then his wife spoke up and said he’s been saying the same thing for fifty years.  Perhaps Lovelace’s Gaia Hypothesis about the resiliency of the Earth is accurate, and the Earth adjusts to all these insults and injuries.

In a seminar, circa 1990, I was attacked viciously just for asking a question of one environmentalist academic on a panel at Notre Dame.  Late on the plane flight home I asked a scientist sitting next to me, and he answered that the science is there, but there are lots of uncertainties remaining.  The 97% of scientists claim has been around for a very long time.  Michael Mann’s attempt to eliminate the warmer period one thousand years ago is a major exception to his hockey stick claims.  Many other claims ignore their lack of current fit when this cycle theory would readily correct that inaccuracy.  Telling them that after their lecture and giving them a handout does no good.

Reuschlein’s Climate Cycle Origins

Inspired by Richard Hansen of NOAA data from 1899 to 1988 shown on C-SPAN, about the extreme nature of the 1988 drought in the USA, I videotaped and decoded that data to begin a three year effort to explain the 54 year cycle’s natural origins.  Only the 1934 and 1936 droughts met the very high temperature departure level of the 1988 drought, 54 and 52 years apart.  Each of these three years were 50% more than the 4th place year.  Using 16 data sets from “Trends 90” and other sources, the puzzle finally fell into place comparing the Northern and Southern Hemispheres temperatures.  After I published “Natural Global Warming” May 7, 1991, one of my readers next month commented that the June 16, 1991 Pinatubo volcano eruption confirmed my theory, exactly 108 years after Krakatoa in 1883.  Those are the two largest volcanic eruptions in the last 200 years.  The US Blizzard of 1996 was the biggest blizzard since the US Blizzard of 1888 just 108 years before.  These two perfect fits were every other 54 year cycle and both in the oceanic half (Southern Hemisphere hotter) of the 108 year cycle.

Weather Wealth and Wars

Extending the cycle to economics and then wars took several years.  Multi-year moving averages of different lengths clearly pointed to tops and bottoms 54 year apart in the US economic history data, as well as the US temperature data.  But the timing did not match and it took a long time to find the link.  The link finally emerged not through agriculture but through Frederick Taylor is the pioneer in this area with 1890s railway building studies.  Then the relative economic success of temperate zone versus tropical economies, stock market studies showing better performance in cold months and long term US analysis showing weaker economic growth in long term warming periods all confirm the Taylor findings in a wider set of areas.  Lastly, the major wars had a periodicity to them.  They consistently occur after major economic booms are ending, when wealth and differences among nations are at a peak.  They also occur in major cold years at the end of cooling streaks.  Knowing when wars tend to occur reduces the uncertainty that leads to military over-preparation, which is costly to society.  Good defense planning will reduce the military whenever war is less likely.  Nicolai Kondratieff in 1926 in Russia began the work on long cycles in economics.  See the link attached for my detailed power-point as presented in Toronto at the World Conference on Sociology to a beaming audience of proud Russians and others.

Presentation Combining the Three Kondratieff Waves, Natural, Economic, Wars:

https://www.academia.edu/37064850/Weather_Wealth_Wars_54_Year_Cycle_7-21-18_2p

List of 56 major events 2.5% error (1.32 years average error) on 54 years cycle time:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yrCycle_3p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, July 27), “Climate Theories Clarified”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Climate-Theories-Clarified-USA,2018160104.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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How Right Wing Changed USA

Perhaps it began with McCarthyism, Ayn Rand, and the John Birch Society reaction against Communism, the New Deal, and the Great Society.  Of course it began with the birth of Empire America after World War Two.  But I agree with Cedrick Smith’s book “Who Stole the American Dream” that the Powell memo of 1971 (and the Nixon administration) instituted and planted the seeds of reaction to the Civil Rights movement and the peace movement against the Vietnam War.  The birth of monetarism economics eclipsing Keynesianism is also an important part of the story.  The first step was the rise of right wing institutes in the seventies like ALEC, CATO, and Heritage to rationalize the domination of the ruling class over the middle class.  This and the socioeconomic nature of a high military spending society pushed America into more of a medieval and Third World society, away from democracy and towards dictatorship.  Of course the 1947 National Security Act begins the empire society gradually leading to the rise of Ronald Reagan.  But the crucial step in this long transformation is the 1981 Reagan tax cut.  This 60% cut in the top income tax rate directly stops social mobility, freezing the middle class out of future income gains and locking in ever increasing income inequality and the current lack of social mobility.  America has traded places with Europe becoming a class based society abandoning the Horatio Alger tradition.  The dominoes of empire just keep falling into place with the rise of the Newt Gingrich Republican congress of 1995.  The last time the congress produced a regular budget with 12 appropriations bills was 1994.  Now spending is passed in omnibus bills for short periods of time less than a year, so leadership controlled that the dysfunctional congress is increasingly over time more dictatorial and less democratic.  Reagan’s repeal in 1987 of the “equal time” provisions for political discourse in the mass media lead directly to right wing radio like Rush Limbaugh and right wing television like Fox News in 1996.  Clinton’s 1999 repeal of the 1938 Glass-Steagall bill separating banking from investment banking leads directly to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 nine years later with a tenfold increase in derivatives without government oversight.  Frank Luntz, Newt Gingrich, and twelve leading House and Senate Republicans met to block all Obama legislation, including emergency economic bailouts while the economy was losing 750,000 jobs per month, in a decision reached 1-20-09 the night of Obama’s inauguration.  Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader implemented that policy then, and later in blocked Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland immediately one hour after the death of Anthony Scalia February 13, 2018.  Such extremism was later matched by Trump’s attempted appeal of everything Obama, including health care.  Clearly there has been an unbelievable escalation of obstructionism since 1971.  Jimmy Carter and a Princeton study have recognized this rise of oligarchy at the expense of democracy.  The activist reactionary Supreme Court, conservative since 1972, has gone radical right since choosing a president in the Bush v Gore case of December 12, 2000.  It repealed election finance laws in Citizens United 2010, and destroyed a forty year precedent in labor relations in 2018 and refused to reverse an absurd reapportionment in Wisconsin this year.

Reuschlein’s Theory of Empire

There is no greater power than the power to take one’s life away.  Hence military power represents a widescale application of such power.  Presidents with wars attached to them tend to be our highest ranked presidents, hence winning war is usually rewarded handsomely on the president’s biography and historical review. Wars are very expensive, hence great political power is exerted doling out the money.  High military spending states dominate the leadership in congress, the cabinet, and the presidency.  Judging by the Roman Empire and modern experience, there is a strong tendency to become less democratic and more autocratic the longer an empire exists.  In Rome the movement was from republic to emperor.  In America the movement of power is from congress to the executive, and in congress from committees to leadership.  Politics moves from flexible to rigid.  Too many people view these trends as inevitable, when in fact levels of military funding can be shown over and over again as the prime forcing agent in things like deindustrialization, low economic growth, inequality, crime, rigidity in polirics, poor health outcomes, and lack of social mobility.  Spiritual decay is usually a result, not a cause, of empire decline.  Complacency is also a result, not a cause of decline.  Corruption increases in high military spending states, hence the worst mortgage abuses leading up to the Great Recession were in high military spending states like California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Connecticut.

Conclusions

The total victory concept of the world wars gradually over time became embedded by America’s most military oriented political party.  Among low information voters this party stood for many American values that it did not follow.  Among the endless hypocrisies and lies were notions of support for the constitution, small business, and local government.  The term fake news was invented to justify contradictions that were in fact lies.  More government and more debt were justified by more lies.  Lack of job creation in 2017 compared to the last six years before was justified by ever lowering unemployment rates as part of a long trend started by a predecessor.  Hoover tariff strategy that gave us the Great Depression were championed as good bargaining.  Draining the swamp was shown to be a hollow slogan as the president made deals to benefit himself and his family at the expense of foreign policy, and his cabinet followed his own corrupt lead.  Putin criticism was put off limits to maintain his ties to his benefactor.  American institutions like the press, FBI and justice were disregarded when inconvenient or worse, vilified.

The rise of Trump represents the lack of all compromise with the left and the lack of any pretense about what motivates the new media created right wing mentality.  A nation of laws has been replaced with a cult of personality with endless attacks on all enemies.  Trump admires dictators and belittles democracies, just like an emperor.

How the principles of empire affect us all:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, July 8), “How Right Wing Changed USA”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/How-Right-Wing-Changed-USA,2018159439.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Plot to Destroy Democracy

The Plot to Destroy Democracy by Malcolm Nance has just come out giving the history of the Russian strategy to dismantle alliances, trade treaties, and the US government.  Nance alleges all of Trumps pro-Russian stances emerged from a two hour meeting with the richest oligarchs in Russia in 2013 when he was in Russia for his Miss Universe pageant.  He further alleges that Trump is easily impressed by those he talks to like this.  For instance, notice how he adopted Kim’s terminology of provocative war-games when he abandoned joint exercises with South Korea unilaterally after the Singapore meeting with the North Korean leader.  Steve Bannon’s “dismantle the administrative state” includes cutting one third of the state department staff.  All of this is a dream come true to Vladimir Putin.  Trump has questioned the Russian sanctions, pointing out that the annexed Ukraine territory are all Russian speaking peoples.  Trump has argued that the Russians could help against ISIS in Syria, despite evidence that Russian attacks there are almost exclusively against the moderate opposition to the Assad regime.  Assad has killed hundreds of thousands of unarmed at first civilians that at one time were peacefully protesting.  Trump does not oppose this, unless chemical weapons are involved.

Dictator’s Playbook

In January 2018 the New York Times reported that Trump lied 2000 times but still does not call him a liar in most coverage.  In May 2018 the Washington Post extended their own list of Trump lies to 3000.  Trump’s answer is to call the mainstream press “enemies of the people” and urges his supporters to confront them.  He repeatedly refers them as “fake news”.  Fox News and especially Sean Hannity have become state TV for the president.  Sean Hannity and the morning show “Fox and Friends” keep giving Trump ideas publically and in daily private phone calls with Sean Hannity.  Founding figures and former presidents like Thomas Jefferson and James Monroe considered a free press more vital to democracy than even elections.  A new Axios poll asks “How often do you think news sources report news they know to be fake, false, or purposely misleading?” and shows that 92% of Republicans answer this question either “a lot” or “sometimes” and 7% answer rarely or never.  For Democrats the answers are 53% to 46%.  In both cases Fox News may be a source of fake news as seen by the Democrats or has convinced Republicans, combined with the presidents tweets and statements, that the mainstream press distorts the truth.  Either way, repetition is the way to use lies to overwhelm the timidly presented truth, hence the mainstream press tendency to normalize the president’s extreme behavior is weakening democracy, to Putin’s delight.

History of Distraction

The presidential spokesperson Kellyanne Conway keeps referring to “alternative facts” to explain away the president’s lies.  Malcolm Nance calls the June 9, 2016 Trump tower Russia meeting the “dangle”, with the purpose of confirming Trump campaign interest in dirt on Hillary Clinton. Nance is convinced that Trump junior told Trump senior about that meeting, and the next day Trump promises a report on Clinton dirt in an upcoming speech.  When Trump later suggests some other source than the Russians for the wiki-leaks release of hacked material he is clearly being disingenuous.  Whenever Trump gets into political trouble, he blames others for the problem he created.  When he claims there is no evidence of collusion or obstruction he ignores the five guilty pleas among six advisors charged.  When he claims the Russians had no impact on the election, he ignores the 14 Russians and 3 Russian companies charged.  His Republican allies in the House echo his lines and seek to win over the public with repetition of outright lies. Republicans insist Mueller should “wrap it up” after only 397 days.  This compares to Iran Contra lasting 2420 days and Whitewater lasting 2978 days.

Conclusions

High military spending empires decay and corrode because of the drain on manufacturing in favor of service sectors like the stock market and banks.  Complacency sets in only when this process is advanced and becomes a way of life.  Corruption and crime are direct results of the high military spending.  American has had seventy years under this new empire regime and the excuses are well prepared to perpetuate the system.  It is not inevitable, it can be changed, especially if the electoral swing states of the industrial and agricultural inland states begin to recognize the exploitation of their production by the service sector financial and military coastal states at their expense.  Half of Cold War funding was taxed out of the Rust Belt to benefit the Sun Belt.  The swindle has been long in the making, starting with the 1971 Powell memo organizing business against progressivism.  Right wing institutes, like CATO ALEC and Heritage, and economic theories were funded next, then Reagan used a 1981 tax cut plan as a Trojan Horse to cut the top tax rate on the rich 60% at the expense of the middle class who were suckered in with a 15% cut.  This restored the primacy of a rich oligarchy who locked in their gains by funding the so-called “conservative party” which counterintuitively increased funding more than the other party by increasing military spending.  All this lead to draining the middle class, creating a resentment that the rich exploited to further enhance their position of power and control.  Soon the middle class started resorting to borrowing to maintain their standard of living, and the rich overworked them to keep them distracted from what the rich were doing to them.  So empire deepened, entertainment expanded to further distract the middle class and scapegoats were invented to divide the middle class. Bread and Circuses. Lords and Serfs. Fear to keep people in their place.  And along comes Trump to take advantage of it all.  Putin’s Apprentice.

How the principles of democracy were overridden:

https://www.academia.edu/36069836/_Constitutional_Implications_of_War_February_2018_3p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, July 3), “Plot to Destroy Democracy”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Plot-to-Destroy-Democracy.2018159293.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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