Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the month “January, 2017”

Biography for Nobel Prize


It’s that time of year before the February 1st deadline (midnight Norway time is 5pm Chicago time) for nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Here are 19 press releases that tell the biographical tale of the long evolution of the stunningly precise Peace Economics theory.  The interdisciplinary breadth of my background was all necessary to create this theory.  Any missing components of my Nine Areas of Mastery and this development would not have been possible.  Art and Religion add flavor to the Nine but are not crucial.  That also makes it nearly impossible to find a peer group to judge my work adequately.  I turn to the Norwegian Nobel Committee for judgment of extraordinary work.  To nominate:

Nine Masteries

MATH was my first great North Star to follow and lead to all the rest.  Precision and imagination were crucial to using this powerful tool.  I developed three mathematical methodologies before I was taught them in the schools, so I learned how to take discovery to the next logical step.

WARGAMING I loved board games as a child and war games had enough challenge and realism to meet my needs.  Gary Gygax, the inventor of “Dungeons and Dragons” with a biography entitled “Empire of Imagination” became a mentor of imagination to follow and gave me the background to understand the strategic military side of military spending.

SCIENCE Physics provided a parallel universe with accurate pursuit of the scientific method.

ENGINEERING gave me the excellence to apply Math and Physics in the pursuit of working mechanisms.

ACCOUNTING gave me a system to evaluate and organize numbers and the determination to come to an honest result when all else fails.

BUSINESS taught me many tools to organize people to achieve a specific practical purpose.

POLITICS gave me a breadth of vision in the social sciences and the world of people to fill in the holes left over from deep pursuit of the more narrow areas cited above.

PEACE ECONOMICS took six months to produce the long term United States economic model and the first book that brought it all together.

NATURAL GLOBAL WARMING took me three years to comprehend the linkages of the three 54 year cycles of temperature, economics, and wars.  Then another twenty years to find that the 55 year moving average produced three straight lines in the 160 year global temperature record.

The Journey

The following nineteen topics represent the biographical section of my press releases, detailing all the above.  Complete copies of each release are in the link provided here and at the end.

Special Award 9-2-16

This Chicago suburban peace group awards a $1000 top prize for an annual essay contest.  They gave me a special recognition award and five minute speech.  I brought the house down.

Denmark Hamlet 8-20-16

This meeting of the Engineers for Peace held in Denmark had some interesting events.

CIA Live History 4-16-16

This is meant to take things out of the conspiracy theory label into the life experience I’ve had with the CIA and peace groups.

Learn in Japan 9-5-15

This trip to Hiroshima to be featured speaker at a conference there was a wonderful experience

Nader Yale Data 5-24-15

Meeting Ralph Nader in person at his conference and later going to a Yale Law conference and back home to UW Madison Big Data group in the Discovery Center there were all amazing.

Reputation 8-24-14

This contrasts the high reputation I had in Eugene Oregon with the struggles for recognition in my home town of Madison Wisconsin.  West Coast versus Midwest.

Global Citizen 6-28-14

My application for Global Citizen came up short, but was encouraged to try again next year.

How I Did It 6-21-14

This is the tale of how I pieced together some lesser known work into one spectacular theory.

Wargamer to Dr Peace 5-25-14

This is about the evolution from wargamer to peace activist in the seventies and beyond.

Nashville 5-24-15

Many would expect conservative part of the country business professors to be hostile to the Peace Economics message, but Empire Economics won a Presentation Excellence Award thanks to their vote.

Politician 5-14-14

This is where I learned my social science, on the streets and coffee shops of Eugene, Oregon.  I left the state on a first name basis with every statewide office holder of either party.  I passed redistricting and venture capital changes in Salem Oregon, and wrote the state application for Delegate Selection to the Democratic National Convention of 1984.

Doctorate 5-9-14

This took a second try twenty years later to finally get my doctorate.  Finally my work would be taken seriously.

Wargames 4-5-14

This introduced me to Gary Gygax in wargaming from 1964 to 1974.  Gygax later created the “Dungeons and Dragons” role playing craze beginning in 1974. Gary taught me imagination.

PE First Course 3-18-14

This took advantage of the Innovative Education program at the University of Oregon in 1987.  Peace Economics was taught for three straight years going from 2 credits to 3 credits to graduate level credit.

PE First Book 3-14-14

I self published and copyrighted “Peace Economics” in 1986, and it became an overnight sensation in Eugene Oregon.

How PE Starts 3-8-14

This all started with a brochure at a Fellowship of Reconciliation meeting in the famous Dorothy Patch house in Salem Oregon in March 1983.  I was in the second of three Oregon Legislative Sessions at the time.

Grandpa Markham 3-1-14

This shows the roots I came from, with my middle name from my Horicon Marsh grandpa, lawyer, politician, and poet.

Numbers Words 1-30-14

This is the struggle of my life, from math wizard to eventually scientist and written author.

Dr Robert Reuschlein 10-10-13

This was the puffery of my introduction to the ExpertClick world.

Link for text of these releases:

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, Contact Info

Peace Research Scientist


It’s that time of year before the February 1st deadline for nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Last year I received at least two known nominations and that was enough to trigger a full review of my press releases and active consideration by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.  One member, the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, did the in depth checking out of my candidacy after I had sent in my most recent video.  This year I’m looking for volume of nominations, all social science professors and members of national assemblies are eligible to make that nomination and may submit nominations to be kept confidential for fifty years, or send me a copy to be kept confidential or free to share as you see fit.  The purpose of this release is to encourage such nominations, and be given some reasons to nominate me.  To nominate by simple email see  Thank you in advance.

Accomplishments 2016

My foremost accomplishment of the year was of course the nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize January 24 and February 1.  On August 24th I was awarded a “Special Recognition Award” by the West Suburban Faith Based Peace Coalition of the Chicago area.  My academic career took off with two entries in the “SAGE Encyclopedia of War, Social Science Edition” by Paul Joseph.  Since that October release, my usual 10% downloads per visitor on went up to 70% for the “Political Economy of War” entry and 30% for the “Military Keynesianism” entry.  My usual 25% foreign and 75% United States viewings on Academia went up to 62% foreign and 38% United States and has stayed at that new high level of international interest and recognition.  Just a couple months ago I upgraded my reports on Academia and found out that I’ve been in their top 1% on a twelve month basis.  Thanks to a Certification of my “Military Keynesianism” article by an Economic Professor and former Finance Minister of Nigeria with a million views on his website, I am now ranked as an author on Academia.  The upward spiral is beginning to go exponential.  On January 14th I presented the paper “Goal of the Terrorists:  Raise the Cost to Society” explaining how economically and socially corrupting high military spending is to a society.

Lifetime Accomplishments for Nobel Peace Prize

1)         The greatest “reduction of armies” (from Nobel’s Will) ever should occur when my work on military spending and the economy becomes the new standard for economics.  This is just a matter of time.  Every test I can think of shows extremely high statistical correlations proving military spending is lost capital investment or lost manufacturing productivity growth or essentially deadweight on the economy with no growth potential.  Put another way, the stimulative value of military spending in the economy is best modeled as zero.  In my sixty year model of United States manufacturing productivity that modeling produces an essentially perfect fit of R=.999.  This also explains how the regional positive correlation with military spending shows it to borrow growth from productive regions during military buildups and return growth to productive regions when there is reduced military spending.  Borrowing and lending economic growth among the regions is not economic growth, it is redistribution of growth.  Put another way, manufacturing shrinks during military buildups and expands during military reductions.  Details:

2)         The first point leads to the second point, that the best long term way for a nation or alliance to defend is to keep military spending low, relying on economic growth to improve defense capability steadily over time.  Leading with economic growth rather than military spending is much stronger in the long run.  One of the keynote speakers at the Telos conference on “Asymmetric Warfare” in New York, Steve Metz, makes exactly that point that the military needs to use commercial products that have outpaced the pentagon, in the future.  Before going to a perpetual high level of military spending after World War II, America used to let the civilian technology go first.   America civilians pioneered in airplanes and automobile mass production preceding the tanks and planes of the World War.  That is the winning way of the founding figures like George Washington.  That peacetime low military first way won wars consistently from 1776 to 1945.  Since then, American wars have all been problematic.  Details:

3)         The first point leads to the domestic consequences third point.  My finding that G7 countries had crime and murder rates proportional to their military spending rate is the keystone of declining empire theory.  Yoko Ono had pointed out on the anniversary that 1.2 million people have been murdered in America since John Lennon was murdered December 8, 1980.  Imagine if the military spending rate had been cut in half that whole time, and 600,000 murders had been avoided.  Oh wait, that actually happened after the Cold War ended, and murder rates were and have been cut in half since then.  And the criminologists don’t have a clue why.  That is more than the souls lost in Columbia in that multi-decade long conflict recently arriving at peace, thanks to the Nobel Prize winner from that country last year.  That alone is an excellent reason to award the Peace Prize based on this research.  Details:

4)         The fourth point on global warming is a direct spin-off from the American sixty year model of the economy based on manufacturing productivity.  The 54 year cycle is a direct result of the unequal evaporation rates over ocean compared to land.  The three years of research from 1988 to 1991 lead to a combined theory of climate change, economic change, and periodic wars.  Later Hurricane Sandy hitting New York in October 2012 lead to my trying the 55 year moving average on the then 160 year global warming record.  Low and behold, that resulted in exact fits in the 1910 to 1973 one degree Fahrenheit per century period, and the post 1973 two degrees Fahrenheit per century period we are now in.  Projection suggests the next upward increase will be when the 2025 cycle begins the process of land heating up first before ocean regulates the land second in the 54 year cycle.  To predict wars is the first step in preventing wars.  Details:

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, Contact Info

Weather Wealth And Wars

Although this release is named after my Radio For Peace International course, it is a collection of my latest press releases that pertain to the Environmental Long Cycle that started with Nicolai Kondratiev’s basic work on long economic cycles in 1926.  I was able to connect the three cycles of climate, economics, and wars into one great theory.  Here are brief summaries of 25 releases from my press release campaign of the last three and a half years:

Evaporation Changes the World 7-19-14

This is my most popular press release in this series, broadly discussing the land ocean earth system and the human effects of warming that slows the economy.

San Francisco Earthquake Predicted 8-26-14

This one had a significant ongoing afterlife because of the link to the famous San Francisco earthquake of 1906 and the Bay Bridge disaster of  the 1989 World Series.  Hurricane Sandy and major volcanoes are also mentioned in this release.  The military buildup of 2008 also had a direct role in the 2008 Great Recession.

Land Ocean 54 Year Cycle 7-30-16

This one looks at the frame of the interaction between land and ocean being the crucial driver of the long cycle.  The land overheats in the first phase of the cycle and the ocean brings the land back to normal in the last phase of the cycle.

History Repeats, 1852, 2014, 3-20-14

This is a deeper discussion of the war cycle than just focusing on the major wars.  Particularly focused on the early Cold War period of the last complete war cycle, important to assess the current situation as we approach the 2025 major war period.

Egypt-Britain Climate Change 1-24-14

This is a 3000 year approach to the rise and fall of civilizations as the temperature in the Western Civilization area starts cold with Egypt, then warms to 200AD where Rome peaks, cools to 450AD when Rome collapses, warms again to 987AD when the Vikings peak, cools again to 1580AD when Spain and Portugal peak, and currently is warming again since as Britain has the industrial revolution after 1750, but has not reached the peaks of 1000 years ago or 1800 years ago, yet, but is getting close.

Climate Economics: Much More than Costs & Disasters 12-3-13

This takes a close look at the human effects of heating from several big picture points of view.  First the direct human impact, then the geographic impact, then the impact over time, then the impact on stock markets comparing the positive cold half of the year to the negative warm half.

10 Big Evaporation Impacts 9-22-14

Many different impacts are covered here, showing the diversity of the impacts.  Forests, deserts, and sweating are all covered here, among many others.

10 Ways Heat Affects People 10-8-14

Many different impacts are covered here, showing the diversity of the impacts.  A collage of human, economic, and civilization impacts are shared with colorful anecdotes.  Four different links to more information are included at the end

War Cycle, 54 Years Long 11-16-14

Wealth, economic changes, and peck order drive the basic cycle.  Age of presidents has a role to play.  Political parties, anomalies, and what to look for in the future are all here.

Ukraine, Crimea, History, Context 3-4-14

Is this 1856 or 1956 is the first paragraphs question.  Then the thousand year record is discussed with a more specific focus on the last two hundred years.  Lastly the focus looks at fifty years ago compared to now.

Baltimore Riot the New Watts 5-2-15

The riots of the sixties are compared to the modern movement for black rights.  Then Ferguson and Baltimore are looked at specifically in these more militarized times of policing.

Why 54 Year Earth Cycle Matters 8-3-14

Why should we care about the cycle, how does it impact us today?  This big question leads to several big answers showing the relevance of the 54 year cycle to all of us today.

Civil Rights Cycle 3-29-14

The daughter of the main plaintiff in Brown v. Board of Education, the landmark Supreme Court decision at the dawn of the modern Civil Rights movements of the fifties and sixties, spoke at Edgewood College in Madison.  Turns out, the 1849, 1896, 1954, 2008 major events she discussed follow a 54 year cycle pattern for black Civil Rights.

How I Found the Earth Cycle 3-21-14

This describes events of my personal journey of discovery of the 54 year cycle.  It started with a drought and a discussion with a friend.  Trends 90 was a big help along with several other data sets and writings.  Real discovery takes lots of statistical analysis in a hands on way.

War and Violence Period Cycle 11-29-15

This merges discussion about crime and war into a complex composite theory of the times.  Militarization and empire play a big role in both areas.

Chile Volcano Eruption Cycle 4-24-15

This looks at the Andes Mountains and the volcano in Chile that erupted in 1857, 1961, and 2014, pretty good fits for the 54 year cycle.  Then this event is judged against others in the modern record.

Are Chile and Nepal Related? 4-28-15

This looks at a plausible relationship to two events 180 degrees apart on the Earth that may be related in some way, just days apart.

15 Year Earth Warming Pause 4-12-14

The IPPC panel on climate change was stumped by the difficulty of explaining how global warming has failed to hit a new high in the last 15 years after 1998.  The Reuschlein theory easily explains the event.

Hurricane Flood Climate Cycle 2-7-14

Hurricanes and Typhoons are the main focus of this broader discussion of events like Hurricane Sandy hitting New York and Hurricane Katrina hitting New Orleans.

Major Wars Happen in Cold Years 12-19-13

This looks at plausible links with very cold years and the start of wars.  How does cold influence the decisions of leaders and people?  A mystery that has some answers and some questions.

Kondratiev Economic Cycle Origins 2-9-14

How Nicolai Kondratiev, Klyashtorin and others furthered the cause of identifying the 54 year cycle.  Pulling the threads together by Reuschlein.

Crazy Cold Winter Weather 2-14-14

The Polar Vortex was in the news, seemingly without any rhyme or reason to it.  Actually Reuschlein noticed this pattern of cold winters in a time of hot years in North America, and has plausible explanations for the pattern.

54 Year Cycle is Crucial 2-25-14

This is a general discussion about the accuracy of the cycle.  How can a real scientist ignore accuracy and continue the old theories of inaccuracy based on lousy interpretations.  Average error of 1.5 years on 56 modern major events is about 95% accuracy for the 54 year cycle.

Philippines Typhoon History 11-12-13

These last two releases show that the major typhoon in history, Haiyan, follow 54 years after the major typhoon year of 1959.  Several different sources are discussed with disclaimers for less accurate events.

Typhoon Haiyan Repeats 54 Year Cycle 1959-2013, 11-11-13

This first press release on the site was very brief, followed up one day later.

The full texts of all of these releases are either available for the release dates after title shown on where you can pick a month on the archive on the right; has another continuous list of titles under my name;

best as a complete bundle of 25 pages on,

you need to click “read” to scroll down the 25 pages for free on

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, Contact Info

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