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Economics Prize Perversion

I found a review of the book “The Nobel Factor” subtitled “The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy and the Market Turn” by Avner Offer and Gabriel Soderberg, and reviewed by Jim Tomlinson, to be a good explanation of how modern economics disguises a right wing ideological movement as the pseudo science of Economics.  On display in this Tomlinson review are many of the problematic aspects of modern economics.

Thomas Kuhn warns us in his book on Scientific Revolutions about some of these traps that economics has fallen into. In my (Robert W Reuschlein) paper “10 Scientific Revolution Facts” my seventh Kuhn point is:

#7.   “In the absence of a paradigm or some candidate for paradigm, all of the facts that could possibly pertain to the development of a given science are likely to seem equally relevant.  As a result, early fact-gathering is a far more nearly random activity than the one that subsequent scientific development makes familiar.” (Kuhn)

This underscores the point that Economics is not a science based on empirical findings but rather an ideology that uses selective interpretations not empirically well based. In the words of reviewer Jim Tomlinson, University of Glascow: “The failure of the awarders of the Nobel prize to be concerned with empirical validity is seen as their biggest failing in how they have made their judgments.”

“Over its whole history, there has been a careful attempt to award the prize to a balance of economists, with the most famous case being the 1974 joint prize awarded to Friedrich Hayek and the Swedish social democratic theorist, Gunnar Myrdal.”

This also underscores my #7 point from Kuhn.  It famously leads into the quote:  “Give me a onehanded economist! All my economists say, On the one hand on the other.” – Harry S Truman.  This leads into the Reuschlein #6 point of Kuhn’s work:

#6.   “it remains an open question what parts of social science have yet acquired such paradigms at all.” (Kuhn 1962, 1972)

In the absence of scientific paradigms, all of social science, including economics, tends to fall into the #7 trap.  I have quipped in private that economics is more of a séance than a science.  Monetarists, Keynesians, and Marxists, are among the differing “religions” of the pseudo-science of Economics.  Reuschlein’s point #9 from Kuhn:  “schools guided by different paradigms are always slightly at cross-purposes.”

And we know from the psychologists that cognitive dissonance is strongest when the differences are small between competing theories.  When they are all inaccurate, a case can be made for any of them, as I once learned as a legislative intern:  In the state legislature of Oregon there was a tradition of freshman hazing, where a new legislator is teased by his or her colleagues as they come up with reasons to oppose his or her first carrying of a bill from committee to the legislative floor for passage.  The bill may be for motherhood, apple pie, and the flag, but the hazing may suggest the mother is a woman of ill repute, the apple has worm holes in it, and the flag may be moth eaten.  Once you see that, you know that politics is an art, not a science, and consists as much of theatre and fiction, as nonfiction and reality.  That is what this scientifically trained electrical engineer (Reuschlein) thinks of the art of economics.

Reuschlein’s Electrical Engineering degree was the same as a degree in Applied Math and Science, except for 20 more semester credits required in Electrical Engineering.  And I made four honorary societies including freshman honors, Phi Eta Sigma, Electrical Engineering, Tau Beta Pi, All Engineering, and Phi Kappa Phi, All University in the third ranked program in the nation, best of the rest, after Massachusetts Institute of Technology and California Institute of Technology, the usual top two in Engineering.  So with six semesters of Physics classes, I know what a real science looks and acts like.  So when I began to document the paradigms shifts of military spending and temperature on macro economics, I took great offense to the notions of social scientists that what I was doing was impossible.

Tomlinson’s review begins with this statement by Economics History Society co-founder:  “R. H. Tawney, rejecting the Marshallian economics of his day, asserted that ‘There is no such thing as a science of economics, nor ever will be. It is just cant…’ “  A profound belief in ambiguity is basic to the thinking of a modern economist.

Tomlinson goes on to say:  “Much of the most detailed analysis of economics here concentrates on undermining the claims of the ‘market liberals’, a term embracing proponents of the new classical macroeconomics, rational expectations and public choice. The book is scathing about the claims made for these (and other) theories, arguing that they ultimately rest on ethical presuppositions, while showing little capacity to explain empirical changes in the economy.”

From the GE “Imagination at Work” ad on 12-23-16:  “Ideas come into this world ugly and messy.  They are the natural born enemy of the way things are.  Yes ideas are scary, and messy, and fragile.  But under the proper care they begin looking beautiful.”  Imagination at Work GE

The key to the General Electric ad is “Ideas….are the natural born enemy of the way things are.” Struggle is inevitable, ugly, messy, and scary.  I’ve found that to be very true, as attacks by some members of the Peace and Justice Studies Association against me and my ideas show.

From Robert W Reuschlein’s paper “10 Scientific Revolution Facts”:

#5.   “History suggests that the road to a firm research consensus is very arduous.” (Kuhn)

#10  “what a person sees depends both on what a person looks at and also upon what a person’s previous visual-conceptual experience has taught him or her to see.” (Kuhn)

#8   “Therefore, at times of revolution, when the normal-scientific tradition changes, the scientists perception of his environment must be re-educated – in some familiar situations he” or she “must learn to see a new gestalt.” (Kuhn)

#4.   Kuhn says a new theory “requires the reconstruction of prior theory and re-evaluation of prior fact, an intrinsically revolutionary process that is seldom completed by a single person ‘and never overnight.’”

These and other reasons are why I have sought the Nobel Peace Prize rather than the Nobel Economics Prize, reasoning that the political nature of the Peace Prize is more favorable to me under the clause in Nobel’s Will “reduction of armies” than trying to buck the ideology of modern economic theory as seen by the Bank of Sweden.

See this article and the two reviews that underlay this article:

https://www.academia.edu/30657234/Nobel_Economics_Prize_Perversion_2016_8_p

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info www.realeconomy.com

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Nobel Peace Prize Path

Here are summaries of the eleven press releases most closely related to my nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize this year, 2016.  At the end is a link to the 18 pages of the complete texts of these eleven press releases.

10 Nobel Prize Pathways, 10-25-14

These pathways are my first serious attempt to lay out the options and rationales for the Nobel Prize.  This was the opening salvo in the Nobel Prize campaign after a very successful first year of laying out the many basics of Peace Economics, Empire Economics, and the Global Warming Cycle.  Then I left the issue alone for about a year, coming back just in time for the February 1, 2016 annual deadline for Nobel Peace Prize nominations.  This envisions three Nobel Prizes, one for Peace, one for Economics, and one for the Physics of the global warming 54 year cycle.  If achieved, it will be the first time ever one individual has been awarded three Nobel Prizes, several have had two.

Academic article:  https://www.academia.edu/4485636/NOBEL_Prize_Pathways_2014

WordPress blog:  https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/10/25/10-nobel-prize-pathways/

Letter to Nobel Committee, 10-5-16

This was my final attempt to persuade the Norwegian Nobel Prize Committee in 2016, using the “reduction of armies” clause in Nobel’s Will.  The two crowning achievements of my work are: 1) an elegant economic model of the last eighty years of the twentieth century in American manufacturing productivity with three basic factors and two special factors explaining 99.9% of the period with decade long Juglar investment cycles as the basic time unit. 2) proving that military spending is the worst thing for economic growth then opens the door to a new vision of how best to defend the nation over a long period of time.  Excessive military spending will weaken the national economy excessively making the nation vulnerable in a few decades time.  This requires a new lower balance for military spending levels in order to maintain a higher level of economic growth.  Being the world’s policeman has few benefits that match up to the enormous costs.  Direct link:

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/10/05/letter-to-nobel-committee/

Nine Areas of Mastery, 10-1-16

These are the necessary skills I had to have to put the main two theories all together.  The list could have included art and religion too, but while helpful, those two are not as essential.  The nine skills are math, science, wargaming, engineering, accounting, business, politics, peace economics, and the natural global warming cycle.  There are important biographical notes in each section.

https://www.academia.edu/15878982/Resume

Paradigm Shifts of Peace Economics, 4-30-16

Five paradigm shifts are explained here.  First is the fact that military spending is nonproductive.  The lack of a product means that military spending is wasted capital investment that does not give a product stream back to the rest of the economy like normal manufacturing does.  Second is that the economic flaw in military spending leads directly to the collapse of empire and the related collapse of the social structure over time.  This second feature ties the economics into the other social sciences in a greater theory.  Third military spending is unevenly distributed among the states and regions of a nation, causing big economic disruptions around the country as buildups and builddowns occur.  Fourth, the warming and cooling natural 54 year cycle leads directly into weather, economic, and war cycles of the same length and ultimate cause.  Fifth, the military spending and global warming causes lead to smooth elegant scientific explanations of a wide variety of phenomena, especially economic.  This new science is more like the science of physics than the social sciences, giving the social sciences a core backbone of physical science principals.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/04/30/paradigm-shifts-of-peace-economics/

The following three describe the actual process of interaction with the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Nobel Peace Prize Nominee, 1-27-16

This includes the first nomination letter.  I knew from the website that 300 nominations are typical, so I assumed many would be with just one nominator.  To avoid being overlooked and to make it into the top 20 or 30 who would be reviewed at the end of the first week, I hustled for a second nomination and got one by the 2-1-16 deadline.  It worked, they began to vet me.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/nobel-peace-prize-nominee/

Response from Oslo, Norway, 2-6-16

Because I track my results daily from the main two websites I use, I was fortunately up around the midnight cut-off from one day to the next.  Sometime between 45 minutes before 9am and 45 minutes after 9am Norway time, a very unusual pattern occurred in the data.  All fifty of the most current press releases had been looked at once.  In two years of daily checking of this data, never had more than 38 of 50 been looked at in a day’s time by everyone looking at my expertclick.com website.  Runs of 10 or 15 or 20 are often looked at by apparently one person at a time, but never fifty at a time.  I am sure this meant I was being looked at for vetting.  So I quickly mailed them a copy of my 40 minute video.  I sent an email to them warning it would take one week for the video to arrive.  In that email I mentioned “Proof of Peace Economics” as an 11 page paper on my academia.edu website.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/02/06/response-from-oslo-norway/

Nobel Peace Prize Watch, 3-19-16

On March 10th before 7am Europe time (midnight my time) suddenly 22 views came in from France.  To get that many views from any one country other than the US is extremely rare, even over the course of a year, much less an hour or so.  All 22 were labelled “home/archive” so I assumed the first was “home” and then went 21 months back in the archive months to July 2014.  Sure enough, that was the month I published “Proof of Peace Economics” and listed it for convenience on my wordpress.com website.  Unfortunately it was only a summary of the 11 page paper on academia.edu that really proves the accuracy of the Peace Economics concept beyond any shadow of doubt.  But it was very encouraging.  Sure enough, one of the five Norwegians on the Nobel Committee had been appointed Secretary General of the Council of Europe stationed in Strasburg France.  His name was Thorbjorn Jagland, a former Prime Minister of Norway and with economics as his major in college.  He must have been assigned to vet the Peace Economist, me.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/nobel-peace-prize-watch/

10 Scientific Revolution Facts, 12-21-14

This book review of Thomas Kuhn’s famous book highlights the key points I’ve personally found to be true in my work.  There are few paradigms in social science research and acceptance comes slowly and with much difficulty.  The world views of social scientists and engineers are very different.  When an engineer comes into the field with a revolutionary new perspective, that is empirically precise, it is hard for the social scientist to accept that work as the cornerstone work it truly is. https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/12/21/10-scientific-revolution-facts/

Peace Econ: How I Did It, 6-21-14

Preparation Meets Opportunity in Peace Economics

The miracle of Peace Economics, this is the story of how it all happened thirty years ago, back in the eighties, as an up and coming politician in Eugene, Oregon.  I was a public interest group lobbyist for venture capital for small businesses staying in Salem, Oregon for the workweek.  It started with a brochure in the legendary Dorothy Patch’s house.

Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/preparation-meets-opportunity/

Politician in Eugene Oregon, 5-14-14

I had many successes in party politics in the eighties, building a strong reputation in Eugene and the state of Oregon.  My Madison Wisconsin experience since 1993 has been a disappointment compared to that mildly famous situation.  With the Doctorate in 2009 and the Nobel Peace Prize nomination in 2016 my reputation worldwide is growing stronger as some peer reviewed work is slowly being added to my extensive portfolio of 145 press releases.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/politician-in-eugene-oregon/

Grandpa Markham and the Horicon Marsh, 3-1-14

Grandpa Starts Horicon Marsh, Largest Cattail Marsh in the USA

I’m the sixth generation descended from Archbishop Markham of York who took office in 1776.  My grandfather was valedictorian of his Minnesota Law School class, and wrote poems including one about me.  His fame was as Horicon mayor, Wisconsin State Senator, and within 5000 votes of the Secretary of State of Wisconsin.  His legacy is the Horicon March dam project in his first year as State Senator 1927.  The family tree has British Admirals in it, and my mother had an American Admiral cousin.

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/horicon-marsh-and-grandpa/

Here are all eleven releases in the eighteen page collection:

https://www.academia.edu/30423568/NOBEL_PEACE_PRIZE_Collection_2014-2016_18_pages

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

Real Economy Institute,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

 

Russian Hacker Election

Harry Reid, his successor Chuck Schumer, and former Republican Presidential Candidate Lindsey Graham and Senator John McCain are the leading Senators, along with the President, of those wanting to investigate this further.

Malcolm Nance has been on both CNN and MSNBC, so the centrist CNN also takes this seriously. His book has been out for some time:   The Plot to Hack America: How Putin’s Cyberspies and WikiLeaks Tried to Steal the 2016 Election.   Paperback – October 10, 2016  by Malcolm Nance 

Malcolm Nance gives a very rational and clear headed interview on these matters, he is a very straight talker.  There is nothing breathless about Rachel Maddow, she is just a good journalist and presenter, as are Chris Hayes, and Lawrence O’Donnell who also had stories.

Harry Reid is very right to consider Richard Comey of the FBI a partisan hack who violated his ethics and the Hatch Act by selectively suppressing this hacker story and instead blowing up the email story out of proportion eleven days out from the election, violating the 60 day before the election no release standard, and instead using the devastatingly strategic eleven day before timing.  Guiliani had said something special was about to happen just a couple days before.  Harry Reid believes that Comey should resign, but there is not enough time to force him out before the new pro Russian president takes office with his pro Russian Secretary of State, the Exxon Mobil guy, Rex Tillerson, who had a $145 billion dollar deal with the Russian Oil Company blocked by sanctions. Those sanctions were imposed by the West after the Crimean and Eastern Ukraine revolt from the CIA induced Western takeover of Ukraine in 2014.

Clinton foolishly tried to expand her lead into Arizona and Georgia instead of shoring up the Midwest where she never even visited Wisconsin.   Comey turned a landslide into a squeaker.  Remember the Pennsylvania Republican who promised the election law changes would deliver Pennsylvania to the Republicans in 2012?  He was just four years off.  Pennsylvania is the rare swing state that has not allowed advance voting, hence everything depends on election day, hence old tricks like not enough voting machines in black areas can be relied on to suppress the vote, combined with new voter ID laws.

“Mike Turzai, the Republican leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, predicted the state’s voter ID law would help Mitt Romney win there in 2012.” Michael Wines, New York Times, 9-16-16.

I don’t know the details of the voter ID laws, but estimates put out in Wisconsin were that 380,000 voters, mostly young, black, Hispanic, and old, like many in the Democratic coalition, would not be able to vote.  Working the polls as I have since the 2011 uprising in Wisconsin, I noticed a surprising low turnout in our Madison ward, about 1500 of the usual 2000, about 100 voters short.  Taken statewide those 200,000 or so votes would be much more than enough to shift the election.

Harry Targ of Purdue is “right on” in the description of the US provocations since 1990. Supplement this with my report in an earlier release of $5 billion US spending in the Ukraine over 20 years before the 2014 militaristic events.  More details in this link to that 9-1-14 Reuschlein report:

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/09/01/democracy-in-ukraine-and-usa/

The electoral college victory should be appealed to the courts and have the electoral college declared unconstitutional as a artifact of the slave era compromise that violates “one person one vote” and the 14th Amendment.  That’s one way out of this constitutional crisis of interference in the vote and election by Republicans (voter suppression) and Russians (hacker-gate).  Then Hillary’s vote margin, larger than Obama’s in 2012, would elect the candidate with the most votes.  However, Hillary Clinton would have to initiate the appeal to the courts, and despite this happening to Gore in 2000, such an initiative does not seem likely.  Until someone does so, the right wingers will keep steamrolling over the left, because they are seeking total victory and the left is playing by the old rules.

Presidency tendencies report:

https://www.academia.edu/20604100/POLITICAL_Military_Presidency_1999_7p

 

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

Real Economy Institute,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

Total Warfare Politics

Introduction      

After World War II America had emerged as the hegemonic power in the world.  Hegemonic is the polite term, the academic term, for empire.  Empire defines the need for large armed forces and high military spending.  High military spending is the principal internal condition for the long-term self-destruction of empire.  Empire Economics or Peace Economics are my trademark names for explaining the scientific political and mechanical processes that collectively unfold over time when high levels of military spending have caused the manufacturing decline, the rise of crime rates, and the political corruption of a declining empire society.  I have called this paper “Total Warfare Politics” to begin to explain how the current dysfunctional political system in the United States is a direct function of increasing pressures from the forces of empire and militarism over time.

Political Corruption

Thanks to the weakened economy that results from high levels of military spending, conservative arguments are made stronger.  Restraint in spending seems the logical answer to more limited resources.  Military spending correlates well with crime murder and corruption rates.  High military parts of the country are more corrupt than low military parts of the country.  High military nations are more crime ridden than low military nations among the advanced economies.  A prolonged state of high military spending empire tends to increase the political rigidity of the system.  Constrained systems are prone to corruption and control.

Total Warfare Politics

Total warfare politics grows out of several traditions of militarism and has been taken to the extreme by the party closest to the military budget in its loyalties.  Because of the concept of unconditional surrender, coming out of the Second World War, extremism began to be seen as patriotic.  The nature of militarism, treating others as enemies, creates an atmosphere of depersonalization and lack of concern for others.  All this makes it easier for those leaning towards criminality to take the next step.  When you have less concern for others, it is easier to commit crimes against them.  Wartime tactics of demonizing your enemy can then start to creep into more and more of the culture.  With the rise of hate radio in the culture, especially so-called conservative radio, political opponents are ever more easily vilified, including demonizing the very concept of liberalism.  When women, immigrants, blacks, Muslims, gays, and abortionists are all demonized routinely, by the far right, political disagreement has gone over the edge to the dark side.  Starting with Barry Goldwater’s states rights, and subsequent campaigns of the political right, dog whistles were the way to divide and conquer, but along came Trump who did away with the dog whistles and other political correctness to tell it like it is, as the right has come to see the world.

Balkanization of the Culture

Ever since Ronald Reagan abolished the equal time standard in 1987 for media that used the airwaves, we have moved into a more and more divided society.  We can now choose the news we want to follow, reinforcing our beliefs.  The internet has reinforced these tendencies.  The production of fake news stories has made open lying more acceptable.  Polls show that 74% believe the fake news compared to 83% who believe the mainstream news.   Politifact, a nonpartisan group that evaluates political claims, found that 72% of Donald Trump claims were false, compared to 28% of Bernie Sanders claims, and 27% of Hillary Clinton claims.  The other Republicans were all in between these extremes.

Current War on the Democrats

Although Goldwater and Nixon started things out with states rights and the Southern Strategy respectively, Reagan began the modern right wing movement.  Reagan fired the striking PATCO aircraft controllers in 1981 that had supported him in his 1980 election.  Reagan also stacked the labor regulatory institutions with people determined to destroy unions.  Since unions were an important part of the Democratic Party election machinery, this was a direct attempt to disarm the Democrats politically.  Likewise, the school choice movement was designed to diminish teachers unions and increase Republican contributors.  Indeed, prison privatization and all privatization attempts are trying to eliminate funding for Democratic support groups and replace it with funding for Republican support groups.  Voter ID laws and restrictions are direct attempts to stop more Democrats than Republicans from voting.  Court cases have described some of these efforts as having surgical precision.  These efforts all contributed to the rightward swing in the key Republican controlled swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.  Only Virginia, controlled by Democrats, resisted this tide.

Supreme Court Control

Since 1969, for 47 years, the Supreme Court has become more conservative.  This all out assault against the left wing began with in the Bush v Gore decision to install George Bush as president in 2000.  The Citizens United decision of 2010 allowed unlimited campaign spending the year Republicans took control of most states just in time to redistrict and lock in their majorities for ten years.  And the voting rights partial repeal in 2013 had lead to changes in voting laws that allowed Trump to carry the Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida swing states.  Redistricting was so extreme that Republican majorities are locked-in in congress and about 30 state legislatures until at least 2020.  Fair play has gone out the window whenever the pendulum tries to swing back.  Abuses under Clinton have gotten much worse under Obama.  The concept of a presidential honeymoon has all but disappeared.  The filibuster requiring a 60% vote in the Senate has gone from rare to routine to block Obama in congress.  This extended to an unprecedented delay in filling the Supreme Court vacancy last February.

Conservatives Aren’t Conservative Anymore

Conservatives are not the party of resistance to progress, they are determined to roll things back and destroy the Democratic Party at all costs.  They have routinely added to the size of government and the deficit, by increasing the military far more than any domestic cuts and cutting taxes despite record deficits.  Carter slowed the deficit, and then Clinton and Obama have lowered the deficit.  Reagan tripled the deficit, quadrupled if you include the Bush term after Reagan.  Bush doubled the deficit, tripled if you include the recession started by Bush that carried over into Obama’s first year.  Conservatives take the free ride of tax cuts without spending decreases, while Democrats try to be responsible and end up paying a price for their responsibility, getting little or not credit from the media for sacrificing.

Dynamics of the military presidency:

https://www.academia.edu/20604100/POLITICAL_Military_Presidency_1999_7p

Power Point of the Stages of Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info www.realeconomy.com

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