bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the category “Global Warming”

Following Nobel Norwegians

Beginning 2016

When I first wrote Peace Economics in 1986, I had hoped to be recognized with the Nobel Peace Prize, but a friend of mine thought I should be nominated for the Pulitzer.  Neither happened for a very long time as I tried various ways to get the word out.  Recognition was sporadic for many years, then I finally earned a doctorate in 2009 and things started happening.  In 2013 I began a press release campaign using the ExpertClick.com vehicle to reach 7000 members of the press.  In five years, I’ve had 160,000 views of my 200 press releases.  After two years of work on this project, I asked for my followers to nominate me for the Nobel Peace Prize in January 2016 a couple of weeks before the February 1 deadline.  An old friend came through for me and I sought a second nomination to separate me from the pack of over 300 nominees.  That seemed to work when suddenly something unusual happened on my website.  The website shows view totals for each release whenever I check it.  I check it several times a day and divide the day in thirds for my records.  Suddenly the totals of all 50 of my most current releases showed an increase of one about 9am February ,2, 2016 Norway time.  Apparently, I was being checked out by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.  Excited, I sent them a copy of my 40-minute video with a 24-page booklet enclosed of the latest compact version of my work Peace Economics.  This led to 22 views from France that had also never happened before on the WordPress.com website.  I did not expect France instead of Norway, but it turns out one of the committee was working in Strasbourg, France as Secretary General of the Council of Europe.  He also was educated in economics, the natural one to vet the Peace Economist.  And my email preceding the video shipment had mentioned “proof of peace economics” which was one visit to the home page of my WordPress.com site in March 2016 and 21 months back to July 2014 to that press release.

Silence Before the 2017 Award

Nothing much happened after the February March 2016 initial burst of interest until the twelve days before the 2017 announcement.  Then a new pattern of looking at the most recent 24 releases emerged three times, on Saturday afternoon Europe time 12 days before, Monday evening Europe time 10 days before, and the Thursday night before the 2017 announcement.  This looked like two people on the five-member committee double-checking first then searching for a third vote the night before.  Although the 2017 award to ICAN made some sense because of the prominence of the nuclear weapons issue thanks to North Korea and Trump, it was largely ignored by the world press.  Hence some misgivings about that award would justify looking for another recipient.

Emerging Favorite with 2018 Award

This third year has been amazing as the new pattern of reading the latest 24 press releases has repeated itself about 48 times compared to twice the first year and three the second year.  Despite not getting the award this year, clearly, I’ve reached the short list of favorite nominees.  In the year of the ME-TOO movement of women, it was logical to give the award to activists against the use of rape as a weapon of war. Perhaps my time will come in a year of world recession or war.  Cyber war, the war on democracy, the war on crime, the war on injustice and inequality, the war on climate change, the war on immigrants and refugees, the war on poverty, are all topics worthy of consideration for an award.  I have shown how many of those are related to high levels of military spending.  My two new scientific theories of economics and climate change all feed into the second clause in Nobel’s will about “reduction of armies” as a goal for the Peace Prize.  Reducing armies’ fights poverty and strengthens the national economy while reducing tensions and making a nation more immune to attack.  Clearer understanding of climate change mechanisms leads to a better understanding of both natural threat cycles and war cycles.  Knowing when hurricanes tend to repeat in a geographic area leads to better preparation.  Knowing when major wars tend to occur between major economic powers leads to better management of defense resources.  Less uncertainty leads to lower levels of armaments.  Of the 48 “hard looks” at my work this last year, the patterns are revealing.  Interest starts slow and accelerates over the course of the year.  In the fourth quarter of 2017 only two.  In the first quarter of 2018 ten hard looks.  In the second quarter of 2018 sixteen hard looks.  In the crucial third quarter of 2018 twenty hard looks before the announcement.  Interest in my candidacy by the committee has never been higher than right now.

Others Showing Interest Online

In the very first year of these press releases, October 2013, multiple site viewers made five views on academia.edu October 20-22 indicating interest by the Pentagon (Alexandria, Virginia) in my climate cycle theory.  This makes sense because the Pentagon is worried about global warming leading to many new conflicts around the world.  Then October 28-30 the CIA showed interest in my military economic theories with eight views from various sites but mostly Fairfax, Virginia.

Then Google started showing lots of interest with 76 views over five years 2013-2018, seventy from Mountain View, California.  Those Google views were mostly in 2015 and 2016 with 65 in those years.

Future Possibilities

Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize 179 years after the scientific discovery of the greenhouse effect.  Copernicus so feared retribution by the church that his work was not published until his daughter found it upstairs in the attic after his death.  Gandhi never won a Nobel Peace Prize because he died before it could be awarded.  Yoko Ono said on the 30th anniversary of John Lennon’s death that 1 million homicides had occurred in America since that day.  My finding that homicide rates are proportional to a nation’s military spending percentage of the economy suggests that cutting military spending in half could cut homicides in half, saving 500,000 lives over that thirty-year period.  That fact alone looks to me comparable to creating peace in a war that cost 500,000 lives over thirty years in Columbia. Using economic incentives to reduce military spending worldwide should reduce both the tendency to have war and the human cost of wars.  How valuable is that?  Understanding that the solar energy imbalances caused by different evaporation rates over oceans and lands affects natural disasters, economics, and wars with untold costs to humankind.  Better understanding of this cycle could save many thousands of lives every year.  How valuable is that?  How much more important is it to change these patterns now than to wait another year or two for a timely event to justify such an award?

Ten Pages Showing 56 Power Point Frames of Key Lectures:

https://www.academia.edu/36620474/Good_Concepts_May_2018_Update_Ten_Pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 8), “Following Nobel Norwegians”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Following-Nobel-Norwegians,2018162846.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Valuable Peace Economics

What I call Peace Economics is an evolution of ideas that spring from reassessing the false theory that military spending stimulates the economy.  What is revolutionary about this idea is the mathematical certainty of the models that verify it and the long shadow of internal political, social, defense, and historical consequences that spring directly from the military economy.

Military Spending Hurts the National Economy (#1 Idea)

This first finding surprised me so much because I had assumed that military Keynesianism showed that military spending helped the economic growth rate.  But Ruth Sivard’s work so contradicted that knowledge I had been taught at college that I instantly shared her bar charts all over the State of Oregon Legislature.  Finding that others did not share my clear vision and enthusiasm led to the exhaustive tests and proofs that she was right that I eventually named Peace Economics.  The peace movement was seemingly just as deluded as the economists, politicians, and journalists.  The peace movement was principally concerned only two ways, about nuclear weapons and about human rights.   This central finding led to a new economic theory, proof of the Kondratiev Wave (54 yr.), and proof of the Juglar Cycle (8-10 yr.).  Keynes and Roosevelt had already proven the economic stimulus value of the national deficit.  It has been a long heavy lift to establish the other three basic points, just as Thomas Kuhn’s Structure of a Scientific Revolution would predict.

Military Spending Hurts the National Defense (#2 Idea)

My second book title, Strength Through Peace, conveys this concept.  While defenders of the military industrial complex often resort to the slogan Peace Through Strength, I find that slogan very misleading.  The real power of a nation lies in its economic strength even more than its military strength.  The short-term benefits of military spending are usually meager compared to the steady erosion of economic strength military spending causes.  In fact, because of Idea #1 above, premature high levels of military spending when threats are relatively low only serve the purpose of gradually weakening a nation when a major threat shows up some time later.  The longer the interval before a real military need emerges, the greater the weakening rendered by excessively high premature levels of military spending.  The Defense Strategy chapter of my 1986 book Peace Economics shows some of the trade-off charts used to estimate appropriate levels of military spending for the longer term or even for the shorter-term strategies.

Military Spending Dominates and Controls a Nation (#3 Idea)

This shows up in the regional nature of changes in military spending. What crystalizes this as a mathematical relationship is looking at the degree of militarization of a state’s economy and lumping states together in one region based on major metropolitan centers that can pull several states together into a mini-region.  Thus, the military states concept shows how politics in the United States is dominated by the military industrial complex.  All of America’s leading political institutions are dominated by figures from the high military spending states and regions.  That includes about 80% of the presidents since World War II, 80% of the cabinet, 80% of congressional leadership, and 80% of the supreme court.  The misleading positive correlation with military spending regionally fails to recognize the losses in manufacturing states under military buildups and the gains in manufacturing states under military builddowns. In other words, the nation as a whole gains when the military lowers and the nation as a whole loses when the military is increased.  This contrast shows up most sharply between the Great Lakes states industrial heartland versus the high military and financial states of the bi-coastal economy.  Great opportunities exist in the financial markets to exploit these regional differences whenever a major change in military spending occurs.

Episodic Nature of Major Wars and Economic and Natural Events (#4 Idea)

The Kondratiev Wave, 54-year cycle, shows up precisely as a perfectly sinusoidal fluctuation in the manufacturing productivity growth rate in the 63-year model mentioned in Idea #1.  After the 1988 drought in the United States I took three years to figure out the natural connection to this cycle and the war cycle.  After hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012, I created a chart of 56 major natural, economic, and war event examples of the cycle, with about 95% accuracy. I also established the connecting mechanisms between these three different forms of the cycle.  This is a great achievement that will improve forecasting for hurricanes, great recessions, and wars.  This makes possible a rational reduction in military spending as part of a national defense strategy.  Millions will benefit from improved forecasting of economic and natural disasters and wars might even be avoided when their causes are better understood as part of this long cycle.

Empire Decline and Socioeconomic Decay (#5 Idea)

My 1989 work first showed the murder and crime correlations with military spending.  This is a leading indicator of the social decay that occurs with prolonged levels of high military spending in a nation and shows up in the sharp drop in crime that occurred in the nineties with the end of Cold War high levels of military spending.  This also helps explain how crime has dropped in Germany and other European countries much more than in the United States in the twenty-first century, thanks to the post 9-11-01 military buildup and wars waged by the United States.  In fact, the Index created in the Spirit Level book shows that empire and military spending correlate even stronger than income inequality with obesity, mental health, teen birthrates, prisoners, and homicides.  The theory of empire that blames collapse on moral weakness has it backwards.  High military spending changes change the economy in the same year they occur, showing that the economic effect occurs first before the social effects, just as crime drops in the nineties took several years to take hold rather than happening immediately.  Cause and effect require a closer look than just watching correlations.  Military spending is the first domino to fall in the long process of manufacturing decline and social decay of empire. Rigidity is a result of the ensuing stagnation.  Stagnation comes in many forms, from political, to class rigidity, and the lack of social mobility.

Twelve Stages of Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 1), “Valuable Peace Economics”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Valuable-Peace-Economics,2018162572.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Spectrum Peace Economics

This is looking at the invisible (beyond the first fifty) press release views on ExpertClick.com from 51 to 198.  These show increased results from the last year and are quite instructive.  Name, date, new views and rank of new views.

CIA Presidents, 1-23-16, 267 views (#1)

This drew the top interest.  Few know that Presidents Clinton and Obama worked for the CIA prior to being elected president, and, no doubt it was a major contributing factor to their success.  To be elected emperor requires either coming from a high military spending state or the CIA.   The other CIA president, George Bush Sr., was appointed CIA director under Ford “despite his lack of CIA experience.”  Evidence shows he was CIA circa 1963 in Dallas.  Obama went to Pakistan twice 1981-83, the staging ground for the Afghanistan War by the CIA against Russia.  Clinton’s home state of Arkansas was ground zero for factories contributing to the eighties Contra War in Nicaragua.  See also CIA lifetime history, 4-16-16, 117 views (#26)

Earthquake Prediction, 8-26-14, 261 views (#2)

Earthquake prediction and especially hurricane prediction are important components of the natural 54 year cycle theory, a key to the 63 year US economic model, and the timing of major wars (US, Europe, and Rome).  War prediction enables a country to take advantage of peace economics to keep military spending minimal (and growth high) during more peaceful periods (circa 1977 to 2004, circa 2031 to 2058) and to better prepare for the circa 2025 major war.  See also Nepal Chile 4-28-15, 185 views (#7) and Violence Cycle, 11-29-15, 172 views (#10) and Cycle Matters, 8-3-14, 118 views (#25).

Nobel Prize Watch, 3-19-16, 254 views (#3)

This summarizes my early attempts to watch the Norwegian Nobel Committee watch me after my first nomination due 2-1-16.  The near miss in 2017 and the “ten times normal” heavy watching this year in 2018 make me very optimistic about October 5th.  See also Response Norway, 2-6-16, 130 views (#18)

Religion and Empire, 1-3-15, 207 views (#4)

Some have estimated that as much as 63% of wars have religion as a main cause.  My point in this release was that the Roman Empire coopted Christianity and put a lesser importance on doctrines of the peaceful shall inherit the earth, live by the sword and die by the sword, good Samaritan, and turn the other cheek.  Also that the Roman Catholic church became the first protestant church when Rome asserted authority over the four other Pentarchy centers of the early Chistian church, Alexandria, Constantinople, Jerusalem, and Antioch.  Note that half the leaders of communes in first two hundred years of the early church were women, before patriarchy took over.  Empire and militarism promote patriarchy.  See also Modern Feudalism, 2-21-15, 115 views (#28)

Football Baseball War, 5-28-16, 206 views (#5)

American football with its heavy emphasis on militaristic terms and practices, supplants baseball as America’s top sport during the Cold War.  Meanwhile demilitarized Japan adopts baseball as its top sport.  Empire militarizes the culture of a country.

Walker Work Dignity, 2-28-15, 193 views (#6)

This talks about the 500,000 people of the Wisconsin uprising who protested the taking away of public union and teacher trade union rights in a right wing takeover by Governor Walker of Wisconsin after the 2010 election.  The protest lasted four weeks long, taking over the state capital with at least 10,000 people every day protesting and crowds up to 150,000 on the four Saturdays.  Anti-union is a sign of empire or fascism.  The move was a sneak attack by the far right in an attempt to gut support for the other political party.

10 Scientific Revolution Facts, 2-28-15, 174 views (#8)

Scientific Revolution, 2-28-15, 173 views (#9)

These two combined would actually be #1 with 347 views.  These ten facts adopted from Thomas Kuhn’s book illustrate the difficulties of getting recognition for a new scientific paradigm.  In the case of Peace Economics, economists believe a science of economics is not possible.  In the Copernican Revolution, the church persecuted Galileo.  This has been my story for the last thirty years or so.

Eugene Politician, 5-14-14, 166 views (#11)

This is the political career I was following until I discovered Peace Economics.  My goals then changed to seek scientific glory instead of political glory.  Served thirteen years 1980-93 on the State Central Committee of the Democratic Party of Oregon, Congressional District Chair 1982-1987, National delegate 1984, and invited to Clinton inaugural 1993.  Starting two new fields, Peace Economics and Natural Cycle Theory, will save countless lives, with “reduced military spending” leading to less wars, more prosperity, and lower murder and crime rates.  Not to mention, better stock market opportunities, less political corruption, and better long term hurricane forecasts among other benefits of empire and cycle theory.

Grandpa Horicon Marsh, 3-1-14, 148 views (#14)

My heritage includes the grandfather who as State Senator funded the Horicon Marsh dam in 1927, third largest wildlife refuge in America.  My mother’s third cousin was President Kennedy, and my father’s third cousin founded Villanova Law School.  I’m a sixth generation descendent of the Bishop of York 1776 John Markham.  Direct descendent of Claron de Marsham, top general of William the Conqueror 1066.

10 Ferguson Jury Mistakes, 12-6-14, 146 views (#16)

This account of the murder of Michael Brown starting the Black Lives Matter movement “hands up don’t shoot” clearly explains how and why the jury made a huge mistake.  Colin Kaepernick sacrificed his NFL career to take a knee at football games.  See also Baltimore Riot, 5-2-15, 103 views (#38)

Violent Society, 7-23-16, 118 views (#23)

Military Terror Policing, 8-17-14, 108 views (#33)

This explains the militarization of America’s police forces used to quell protests in Ferguson.  Another case of the deepening of empire over time in America.

Low Military Defense, 12-5-15, 102 views (#41)

This is the key peace economics concept:  that too much too soon military spending is actually counterproductive to defending a nation, because:  the ultimate defense depends on the size of nation’s economy and excessive military spending steadily erodes that crucial economic strength.  An alternative title could be “Real Politics Re-Invented”.

Seventeen Key Findings and Claims of Peace Economics over thirty years:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, September 21), “Spectrum Peace Economics”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Spectrum-Peace-Economics,2018162207.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Climate Theories Clarified

Today’s climate change discussion has become contentious in America.  Those that try to deny the reality of the Greenhouse Effect have so put the scientists in a box that they have been over-reacting defensively.  Without the Greenhouse Effect our world would be an ice ball.  That’s 16 degrees cooler Celsius or 29 degrees cooler Fahrenheit.  Melting the ice over Greenland or Antarctica would raise the oceans enough to endanger half the world’s population.  So the crisis is not trivial, yet not all the information is out there and the science is not complete.  Fake science from the fossil fuels industry is a real challenge, and because of this fake science, some real science is being misjudged, overlooked, or even attacked.  I dare to set the record straight at the risk of being labelled a climate denier, which I am not.

Greenhouse Effect Clarified

In 1828 when the first research discovered that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can raise temperatures, it was also discovered that each doubling of the carbon dioxide raised the temperature a fixed amount.  So there are diminishing returns on the Greenhouse Effect.  This was demonstrated by a student paper using a climate model that showed when he exceeded the professor’s instructions to go out one hundred years only, and instead went out two hundred years, he discovered that the effects leveled off in the second century.

In my Unitarian church group in Eugene Oregon USA, in the early nineties, I had a professor friend who taught Biology.  One day he stated that the environment is getting so bad that in about a decade we are going to face real disasters.  Then his wife spoke up and said he’s been saying the same thing for fifty years.  Perhaps Lovelace’s Gaia Hypothesis about the resiliency of the Earth is accurate, and the Earth adjusts to all these insults and injuries.

In a seminar, circa 1990, I was attacked viciously just for asking a question of one environmentalist academic on a panel at Notre Dame.  Late on the plane flight home I asked a scientist sitting next to me, and he answered that the science is there, but there are lots of uncertainties remaining.  The 97% of scientists claim has been around for a very long time.  Michael Mann’s attempt to eliminate the warmer period one thousand years ago is a major exception to his hockey stick claims.  Many other claims ignore their lack of current fit when this cycle theory would readily correct that inaccuracy.  Telling them that after their lecture and giving them a handout does no good.

Reuschlein’s Climate Cycle Origins

Inspired by Richard Hansen of NOAA data from 1899 to 1988 shown on C-SPAN, about the extreme nature of the 1988 drought in the USA, I videotaped and decoded that data to begin a three year effort to explain the 54 year cycle’s natural origins.  Only the 1934 and 1936 droughts met the very high temperature departure level of the 1988 drought, 54 and 52 years apart.  Each of these three years were 50% more than the 4th place year.  Using 16 data sets from “Trends 90” and other sources, the puzzle finally fell into place comparing the Northern and Southern Hemispheres temperatures.  After I published “Natural Global Warming” May 7, 1991, one of my readers next month commented that the June 16, 1991 Pinatubo volcano eruption confirmed my theory, exactly 108 years after Krakatoa in 1883.  Those are the two largest volcanic eruptions in the last 200 years.  The US Blizzard of 1996 was the biggest blizzard since the US Blizzard of 1888 just 108 years before.  These two perfect fits were every other 54 year cycle and both in the oceanic half (Southern Hemisphere hotter) of the 108 year cycle.

Weather Wealth and Wars

Extending the cycle to economics and then wars took several years.  Multi-year moving averages of different lengths clearly pointed to tops and bottoms 54 year apart in the US economic history data, as well as the US temperature data.  But the timing did not match and it took a long time to find the link.  The link finally emerged not through agriculture but through Frederick Taylor is the pioneer in this area with 1890s railway building studies.  Then the relative economic success of temperate zone versus tropical economies, stock market studies showing better performance in cold months and long term US analysis showing weaker economic growth in long term warming periods all confirm the Taylor findings in a wider set of areas.  Lastly, the major wars had a periodicity to them.  They consistently occur after major economic booms are ending, when wealth and differences among nations are at a peak.  They also occur in major cold years at the end of cooling streaks.  Knowing when wars tend to occur reduces the uncertainty that leads to military over-preparation, which is costly to society.  Good defense planning will reduce the military whenever war is less likely.  Nicolai Kondratieff in 1926 in Russia began the work on long cycles in economics.  See the link attached for my detailed power-point as presented in Toronto at the World Conference on Sociology to a beaming audience of proud Russians and others.

Presentation Combining the Three Kondratieff Waves, Natural, Economic, Wars:

https://www.academia.edu/37064850/Weather_Wealth_Wars_54_Year_Cycle_7-21-18_2p

List of 56 major events 2.5% error (1.32 years average error) on 54 years cycle time:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yrCycle_3p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, July 27), “Climate Theories Clarified”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Climate-Theories-Clarified-USA,2018160104.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Good Concepts 2018 Update

These ten pages of key concepts will give the reader some understanding of both my breakthrough ideas and personal background.  The first seven pages have eight power point frames each about a major concept of empire and climate theory.  The eighth page looks at ten key points about paradigm shifting revolutions, then the last two pages are biographical notes about my curriculum vitae.  The detail can be found on the academia.edu website link at the end, but the gist of each is given below:

Socioeconomic Decline of Empire

This is the best way to frame the effect of military spending on society.  It starts dragging the economy down and after a generation or so starts consuming the whole society politically, socially, economically, corrupting everything in sight.  Effects the economy immediately year by year and things like the crime and health rates over the time to raise a child.

Banks and Fascism

This side looks at the evolution of an empire and things like the imperial presidency and fascism.  The press, opportunity costs, and current history events are covered also.

Land Ocean Cycle

This powerful phenomenum emerges clearly out of a detailed analysis of the many sections of the planet as the temperature of the whole changes differently from the various parts.  There are many confirming patterns in the details beyond this simple summary.

Climate Cycle Affects Economics and War

When Nicolai Kondratieff first documented the long economic cycle of about 50 years in 1926, he thought of it as a manmade cycle.  Little did he see the relationship between the natural cycle, the economic cycle, and the war cycle.  Adherents of each type of cycle don’t seem to venture out of their silos to see how they each relate to the other.

Defense Strategy Lessons from World War II

The high cost and strategy of war are hinted at in these slides.  The concept of keeping the military low to keep the economy strong for the long run major wars every fifty years or so and the ability to mobilize over a short period of time argue for lower levels of military spending.  The defense strategy paper on academia.edu is necessary to better understand the possibilities for an effective defense recognizing the economic danger of high military spending.

Economic Model of 20th Century

The three to five major components of the long term model show how an accurate theory of economics can be built.  This is often believed impossible by many in the economic profession.  The basics are covered here, but the economic model paper on my academia.edu website is necessary for a more detailed understanding.

Birth of “Dungeons and Dragons”

These insights came from my wargaming years 1964-1974 with Gary Gygax, the inventor of Dungeons and Dragons role playing games. At the end is a comparison of Reuschlein and Gygax.

Scientific Revolution Facts

I distilled these key ideas from Thomas Kuhn’s “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” and live the adventure all the time as I endeaver to stake my claim to my own scientific discoveries.  These ten facts hit home to me the hardest.

Nine Fields of Knowledge Create Ideas

Here is a two page version of my curriculum vitae, with the important addition of nine fields of knowledge I found essential to the building of my theories.  Any one of them missing and I would not have succeeded.

For a basic ten pages read on my ideas and background:

https://www.academia.edu/s/979f0fe1e3/good-concepts-2018-update-ten-pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, May 13), “Good Concepts 2018 Update”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Good-Concepts-2018-Update,2018157444.aspx

Great Reads Make Theories

World Military and Social Expenditures (1981-1996) Ruth Leger Sivard

Sivard maintained for many years a worldwide catalogue of military education and healthcare expenditures for each of the 191 countries.  One year she catalogued the deaths from each war in the twentieth century, mainly the 77 million in the two world wars, but also the many third world proxy wars costing tens of millions of lives during the Cold War.  From my point of view, her multi-decade bar charts of the G7 and leading economies of world showing how as military spending increases capital investment and manufacturing productivity decrease.

Climate and Life (1983) Steven Schneider

This is a fascinating account of the rise of life on planet Earth over 4.5 billion years. How volcanoes gave the early Earth water for the oceans and carbon dioxide for the atmosphere, the two key ingredients for plant life.  How for the first 2.2 billion years of 3.8 billion years of life, life existed without the benefit of even a cell wall in the primordial sea.  Here I learned in a paragraph the importance of evaporation as the main first use of solar energy (85%) and the main difference in heating rates of land and ocean. This leads to all that follows in my discovery of the natural global warming cycle origins of the Kondratieff Wave.  The book is an impressive tour de force by a leading climate scientist and journal editor.

Spirit Level (UK 2010 US 2011) Richard Wilkinson and Kate Puckett

These authors document the extensive relationship between social disfunction and rising income inequality.  Human beings, as social animals, do not relate well to a sharp rich poor divide.  Indeed, this may well have been the central message of Jesus of Nazareth.  Society operates better as equals than as lords and serfs.  The lack of social mobility, crime, and poor health are all functions of the Genie coefficient.  Also, anxiety levels continue to escalate over recent decades in America.

Guns, Germs, and Steel:  the Fate of Human Societies (1997) Jared Diamond

Diamond documents the emergence of Western civilization in a scientific non-racist way.  He notes the importance of large mammals to domesticate as a key.  No region of the world has more than one or two such animals except for the fertile crescent.  The cow goat sheep pig combination of four allowed mankind to inoculate from disease becoming hardier.  Later the separation into many nations allowed Europe to learn from others nation’s mistakes and successes, speeding development.

Long Cycles (1987) Joshua S. Goldstein

This political scientist at MIT was no doubt influenced by J. W. Forrester’s long cycle work in the business school.  Forrester founded system dynamics.  Goldstein tracks European war deaths as a percentage of the European population for each war since year 1500.  This five hundred year study clearly shows a robust 50 some year cycle in major wars.  I find a clear 54 year cycle in the start date of these major wars by my own analysis.

Statistical Abstract of the United States (1899-2012)

My favorite here is the Bicentennial Edition showing a continuous record of economic data from 1889 to 1975, free from the obvious political bias of the individual year publications under various presidencies.  The rich variety and inherent accuracy of these records are confirmed by their use in my stunningly accurate economic model from 1920 to 1996 of the United States. Crime records and state by state military spending records are invaluable.  That this has been discontinued is a terrible shame.

Trends 90 (1990) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

This compendium of temperature records for various sections of the planet allows for the necessary data to document my natural cycle theory on several levels.  The key for me was graphing the difference between the annual warming records over the last century and a half of the Northern versus Southern Hemispheres.  This is a good proxy for the land versus the ocean.  The dominant Southern Hemisphere for the sixty years 1860 to 1920 and the subsequent Northern Hemisphere dominance of 48 years from 1921 to 1968 show the 108 year cycle that colors the successive 54 year cycles.  Now we are in a new Southern Hemisphere dominant cycle from 1969 to 2028.

1984 (1948) George Orwell

Orwell correctly anticipated the war is peace double speak of the Ronald Reagan re-election bid in 1984.  He saw how the Cold War was beginning to color our dialogue after World War Two.  He anticipated the tortured language and justifications of empire as power transferred from the British Empire to the American Century (a euphemism for American Empire).  Wars in this period of time are repeatedly justified with language later shown to be false and misleading, just aa in this great work by a great author.  Having read this book in the sixties, I later re-read it in 1984 and noted how well it described that year’s dominant politics.

The Gospels of the Bible (Matthew, Mark, Luke, John)

The Sermon on the mount in Matthew’s chapter four states that the peacemakers shall inherit the earth.  Indeed, this is the fundamental truth of Peace Economics.  Low military spending nations grow their economies faster than high military spending nations, eventually becoming dominant. Those nations who live by the sword die by the sword just as the gospels say.  As you sow, so shall you reap, and pride cometh before a fall also ring true in my Peace Economics research.

For a basic seven pages read on my ideas and background:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, May 6), “Great Reads Make Theories”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Great-Reads-Make-Theories,2018157177.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Reduce Military War System

Overall

The Peace Economics theory requires a whole new way of looking at national defense and national security.  The huge finding that military spending is essentially a non-productive loss of key resources normally used to increase the size of the economic growth rate means that excessive military spending can prevent a nation from keeping up vital economic strength.  Economic strength is more important to national defense and national security than military strength in the long run.  But what does that mean?  There are two key approaches.

Two Time Frames

When offense exceeds defense, as in nuclear war, quick reaction is urgent.  But because of mutually assured destruction, avoidance is the only way to really survive.  Short term military strength is necessary up to a point.  In more conventional warfare, quick success is unlikely unless one side is more than twice as strong as the other side.  There are four clear cases of the “twice as strong” economically being decisive in the World Wars.  When both sides are more equal stalemate is likely until and unless one mobilizes overwhelming forces against the other.  Then the initial military forces are not as crucial as the economic strength comparison.

How Often Wars Happen

United States, European, and Roman history is a good argument for the 54 year cycle in major war history.  There are many wars all the time, but matchups between the top two economies in an area tend to peak every 54 years.  These are the wars a national defense best needs to be prepared for, hence a long term “build the economy” strategy best prepares a nation for this point in time, with a smaller well trained military core kept going between major war events,  In this 54 year cycle, tester lopsided wars tend to happen about 18 years before the major war in America, and 15 years before the major war in Europe.

Size of Military

The larger the military, the more likely it will be used.  A large military will coopt large portions of the military political economy.  Justifications for a large military will be developed to of the maintain this large size.  War is the ultimate justification and wars will go on and on out of fear of losing, and continued funding for a war is often justified out of support for the troops.

Success in Prior Wars  

Low cost paid and success in prior wars encourages a forward leaning posture in foreign affairs.  For example, the lower the percentage of a major nation’s population dying in the last major war made America most aggressive in the early Cold War followed by Britain and then France.  For example, a bad experience in the thirty years war ending in 1648 lead to Swedish neutrality ever since.  Switzerland.s last war in 1815 was in the Napoleonic Era of mass draftee armies. The invention of the military draft lead to Europe missing a major war in the 1860s until World War One in 1914.  Joshua Goldstein’s 1986 study of European wars since 1500 shows a 50 year cycle of major wars with about 1.5% population loss.  After missing that 1860s war, war came back worse than ever with a 5% population loss in each World War.

Role of the CIA Covert Operations

Critics of America’s Covert Operations cite a long history of mistakes and policies favoring commercial interests over democratic interests.  Blowback, the tendency of such operations to boomerang on America, is perhaps best indicated by Iran.  Covert operations seem to represent over-the-top efforts that wittingly or unwittingly help perpetuate the war system.  Previous mistakes often lead to future excuses for wars.

Consequences of the War System

Social decay, crime, and especially murders are all consequences of militarism and the war system, the empire system.  Findings show that murder rates follow military spending rates among the larger developed nations.  The million murders in America in the thirty years after John Lennon’s death 12-8-80 could have been cut in half if military spending had been cut in half.  That would have saved 500,000 lives.  Indeed, something like that did happen halfway through that thirty year period, as murder rates were cut in half one decade after the Cold War ended in 1991, and US military economy rates were cut in half by the year 2000.

Defining National Security

Keeping a narrow definition of national security defined around results wars, leaves out the large number of lives that can be saved by avoiding 15,000 domestic US murders, consequences of lack of health care (35,000 deaths) and consequences of income inequality and poverty.  Excessive militarism increases murders, health care deaths, and inequality deaths vastly in excess of the 10,000 US soldiers and civilians lost in the war on terror the last 20 years.  Stifling the American dream of income increases for middle class Americans since the seventies is the deepest consequence of the de-industrialization caused by empire in American history.

For a detailed model of optimal military spending levels for a major power:

https://www.academia.edu/4475604/DEFENSE_STRATEGY_Chapter_Peace_Economics_7_p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, April 2), “Reduce Military War System”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Reduce-Military-War-System,2018155833.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Gun Control Students March

Movements Return on 54 Year Cycle

Millions rallied around the nation (some globally) against gun violence against schools and citizens yesterday.  Estimates of 800,000 mostly students in Washington DC March 24, 2018 compare favorably with the 1,000,000 mostly women on January 21, 2017.  These enormous rallies come 54 and 55 years after the civil rights march of August 23, 1963, with a then record 300,000 crowd.  Back then we had the great movements for civil rights, against the Vietnam War, followed by women’s and environmental rights several years after the first two.  Now we have Black Lives Matter, the Women’s counter-inaugural protest, and the Parkland Students against school mass murders.  Then a landslide election in 1964 brought in the Great Society reforms and programs, now a blue wave election in 2018, 54 years later, threatens to turn around congress 180 degrees in philosophy.  Democrats needing 23 seats to regain the majority, may gain over a hundred seats if the recent Pennsylvania special election is indicative.  It is remarkable that this repetition occurs at the same long cycle time with similar economic prosperity.

Advanced Empire Decay

Seventy Years of hollowing out the manufacturing sector to apply similar resources of capital, research, and people to military spending have weakened the US industrial economy largely replaced by the financial services economy.  Profits from the financial services industry have increased to nine times their share of the US economy in the forty years since the seventies.  Just as the New Deal momentum was in its last hurrah back then, now the Reagan conservative revolution is looking at its imminent demise.  Then the American empire was at its peak under Kennedy while now the American empire will have trouble recovering from Trump.  Ever since 1945 the memory of pre-empire Roosevelt America remained strong for many Americans until after the 1980 Reagan election.  Now many Americans do not remember what America used to be.  Prior to 1980 all Americans shared prosperity equally, with all classes doubling their income in those 35 post war years.  Now Americans in the bottom 99% have remained without meaningful wage increases while the top 1% has seen their income more than quadruple.  Thanks to the FOX News propaganda channel since 1996 and Rush Limbaugh since 1988, Americans have been uniquely misinformed about politics.  Thus despite his documented record of 2000 lies in his first year in office, Trump continues the lying, repeated by FOX news and his 24 million Twitter followers and 16 million Facebook followers, to hold on to his 35% base while turning off everyone else.  Polls show that 12% believe they are in the top 1% in income, while another 23% believe they will be in the top 1% someday.  These deluded and aspiring groups supplement the actual 1% to make up the essence of the 35% Trump Republican base.  The key Reagan deception was to sell America on his 25% tax cut plan that in fact gave a 60% tax cut to the top 1% while giving a mere 15% tax cut for the middle class.  This same four to one ratio of benefits continues in the Trump tax “reform” plan.  But thanks to the 2011 “occupy” movement, Americans now know they are being had.  They also know that 24,000 would lose their health care under the Trump Republican proposals that failed last year.  Nevertheless, 13,000 will lose their health care coverage due to the partial repeal slipped into the tax bill, with an estimated 10% increase in premiums due to that change.

Murder Rates Match Military Spending Rates

Steve Mills, who teaches medicine at the University of Minnesota, has shown that households that have a gun in the house are five times as likely to be shot to death as those in households without firearms.  My own findings show that most of the seven largest economy nations correlate strongly between military spending and murder rates, with a near perfect correlation as high as 0.996 during the last twenty years of the Cold War.  There is probably a lot of overlap between gun holding households and veterans.  One friend of mine once read a book about mass murderers and told me that they all had military backgrounds, and there are few exceptions to that pattern today.  Murder and crime rates are higher around military bases, and I learned at the 1999 hundredth anniversary Hague Peace Conference that Okinawa Japan women are often raped by US soldiers so much that the national government had to overrule the local government to keep the US base there.  Japan is a very low military low crime country.  In the fifties, the US learned how to train soldiers to kill, because over 70% of troops never fire their guns in combat in wars including World War Two, because humans are so naturally horrified about killing another human being.  78% of combat deaths in that war were due to artillery, a safely out of sight, out of mind, way to kill others.

Three Reasons Why Military and Murder are Related

There are three reasons why murder rates and military spending rates are so closely aligned.  First is the military drain on the economy, which leads to more desperate and crime prone people.  Second is the de-personalization of others that comes with dividing the world into friends and enemies.  Among the usual 2% of us with deviant behavior, this makes it easier to commit a crime against others.  If we can easily de-personalize our victims, we can then more easily commit crimes against them.  Meetings between criminals and their victims in prison therapy are often very troubling to the criminal when they see for the first time the consequences of their actions first hand in the eyes of the victims.  Third is the direct impact of training millions of people how to kill in wars.  When you have such training it is easier to escalate a fist fight in a bar into a homicide.  Just as in Shakespeare’s play MacBeth, murder is easier and easier after the first very difficult murder decision.

Guns or the Military

Guns are the easier to see as the “cause” of the mass murder problem.  Other nations have far fewer gun murders, and one comparison of murders between Canada and the US shows similar amounts of other categories of murders per capita, similar knifings, poisonings, and strangling’s, and others, while showing a big drop in gun murders.  Britain has reduced guns to the point that it has 60% less murders than would be suggested by its military rate.  But that is true also for France, Virginia, and New England, a four-some that correlate 93%, but at 60% lower than for US, Germany, Sweden, Italy, and Japan.  But this may be related to comparing 150 year old societies with 400 year old societies.  Is it the guns or the level of maturation of the society that reduces crime rates?  Crime rates in the US went down after the 1991 end of the Cold War to half their rates, just as military spending went down also in the nineties.  Some would ascribe this to abortion being legal since 1973, 18 years before 1991, but that would not explain the similar drop in crime in Western Europe.  German homicides have dropped 40% since 2000 while the US homicide rate has dropped only 20% thanks to the wars and military escalation.

For the additional “Crime and the Military” papers and graph on my academia.edu website:

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 26), “Gun Control Students March”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Gun-Control-Students-March,2018155580.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Interdisciplinary Shutdowns

Just as in politics it takes a lot of different points of view to come up with a good compromise, in academics and many other professions multiple views are crucial.  In my dissertation, I discovered the average Midwest US College with a peace studies program had ten interdisciplinary programs.  Much lip service is given to interdisciplinary work; but most colleges still reward tenure based on the narrow needs of the discipline the academic comes from or is housed in.  One device to overcome this problem is to give interdisciplinary programs a voice on tenure decisions.  It would be good if all the interdisciplinary programs were represented by a department of interdisciplinary programs or a dean of interdisciplinary programs.  Some examples of the benefits of interdisciplinary thinking follow.

Religions Example

In my younger years I experimented with five difference religions.  This gave me much greater perspective on the common practice of prayer.  I was once practicing my Buddhist chanting when I compared notes with my landlady’s saying of the rosary.  The benefits were remarkably similar.  Then it struck me that meditation, prayer, chanting were all similar practices and mental disciplines with similar benefits.  Having multiple religious views allows one to better comprehend the great truths about ourselves and humanity such as the golden rule, found in all religions.

Physics Example

Locating a point in three-dimensional Euclidean space requires triangulation.  Even our eyes work this way, as two eyes allow depth perception estimates of how far away things are.  Likewise, in space, two observatories or measurements of one observatory taken from different parts of earth’s orbit over time can determine the distance of an object far away in space.

Peace Studies Example

Like the historians who think biography is history, my peace studies colleagues too often believe in individual efforts and personal change are the keys to peace, and too often underestimate the role of institutions like the military industrial complex.  When they do look at military spending they overemphasize alternative ways to spend that money.  They underestimate the lack of human economic progress because the capital and research diverted to the military undermines the civilian manufacturing sector ability to grow and provide better jobs and products for the rest of us, as seen in the strong German economy.  Opportunity cost is a lost concept on them.  Too often the humanities perspective denigrates and ignores the business perspective.  And too often the business perspective also only focuses on the money and ignores the direction the society is moving, expanding our horizons or futilely trying to control our enemies.  Too often looking at our enemies as evil rather than misguided leads us into overreactions that only serve the purposes of multiplying them.

Peace Economics Example

Economists, caught up in the history of economic thought, focus too much on microeconomics, believing that macroeconomics will never become a science.  Too use the analogy of physical matter phases of gas liquid and solid, economics starts with a focus on individual decisions (gas) building them up into business decisions (liquid flow of society).  They fail to see “solid state” of peace economics that lost capital sent to the military stalls growth while deficit spending adds to growth in the annual records.  In the longer term the land ocean 54-year cycle leads directly into the same economic long cycle and the major war cycle.  In the medium term the Juglar capital investment cycle of about nine years balances out the annual errata.  Together these forces produce a scientific model of economic productivity growth.  Without the precision in the historical record, economics would still be in the squishy liquid phase, with proverbial “too many factors” preventing the movement into a new level of science.

54 Year Long Cycle Example

Global warming science has been so captured by a mutually peer reviewing in group of scientists that they claim 97% certainty about the greenhouse effect.  However, I have audited four local global warming scientists’ classes and learned how the right hand doesn’t know what the left hand is doing.  Undeniably there is a Greenhouse Effect and Earth could be an ice ball without it.  But I have witnessed some of the scientists distorting the record to prove their points and to avoid healthy criticisms.  They have shown an unhealthy defensiveness against new ideas thanks to pressure from the fossil fuel industries.  One student paper showed the model used in class projects leveled off in the second century of warming without changing the trajectory of fossil fuel usage.  Students were instructed to model for one century only.  But even though energy models clearly show a huge amount of solar radiation immediately evaporates water when it hits the surface, they stubbornly resist analyzing the differential impact over land versus ocean as I have.  Even though my modeling is obviously true, few share my understanding except for a World Future Society audience of fifty in Chicago on July 20, 2013.  Other less sophisticated audiences are just stunned.  I have 56 repeat events roughly equally divided in the three basic categories of natural, economic, and political (mostly wars) with 20 precise fits to the year and 95% accuracy overall.  I have three levels of different proofs for each transmission mechanism from natural to economic to political.  But when I talk to climate scientists they fail to recognize the work of industrial engineers like Frederick Taylor, businesspeople like JW Forrester and economists like Sivard, Kondratiev, and Juglar. When I explain anomalies of the temperature record are easily explained by my evaporation theory they look like deer caught in the headlights and move on rather than try to understand me.  Few people can match the nine fields of specialization I have, so they remain restricted to their narrow fields and can’t keep up with me, except for the renaissance people who have nominated me for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Summary

The breadth scope and complexity and basic research style of my work could not be matched without my nine fields of specialty of math, science, wargaming, engineering, accounting, business, politics, peace economics, and long cycle theory.  And I left out history art and religion.  Interdisciplinarity allows me to make connections, plug holes, and otherwise see around corners that others do not see.  Leadership experience teaches me the art of making complex decisions and understanding the psychology of other leaders, such as the war decision.  The world will change dramatically for the better with less wars in the future when leaders recognize the self-defeating nature of excessive military spending levels that leave a nation with a much smaller economy to win future wars with.  And long cycle theory tells us when to expect those future major wars. Together these things change the high military mantra of peace through strength into the reverse low military high growth mantra of strength through peace.  Academics and politicians please consider nominating me to the Norwegian Nobel Committee at

https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/Nomination.

 

For additional information please see this key seven pages about my ideas:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, January 1), “Interdisciplinary Insights” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Interdisciplinary-Insights,2018153181.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and Given Odds for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017

Possible Favorite in 2018 November 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Findings and Special Claims

Since the Norwegian Nobel Committee seems to be taking me very seriously lately, it’s time for a catalog of my findings and special claims.

  1. Manufacturing Productivity growth rate reduces in proportion to military economy. Ruth Sivard provided the bar chart of nineteen years summary of G7 countries plus Sweden and Denmark in 1981.  Nils Petter Gledisch correlated the data at R=-0.81.  Reuschlein combined Europe and North America improving the continental correlation to R=-0.997.  Claim:  this proves the non-productive nature of military spending.  Reuschlein 1986.
  2. Capital Investment reduces by the amount of military spending. Ruth Sivard in 1983 published this bar chart of the G7 countries plus Sweden over a twenty one year period.  Reuschlein claims that for five of these countries R=-0.993.  The outliers of Italy and Canada are secondary countries in the two main continents, 3.5% GDP lower than the main top four NATO countries, and Japan is 4.5% GDP higher due to a strong cultural bias towards savings. Reuschlein 1986.
  3. American economic productivity model from 1920 to 1983 shows a correlation of R=0.999. All parameters were independently arrived at from annual historical data analysis.  Claim:  this model proves the existence of the 1926 Nicolai Kondratieff 54 year cycle and the Clement Juglar 1860 nine year investment cycle.  This model also has trade loss Great Depression factor and oil shock seventies Oil Crisis factor.  These special factors also repeat confirm their accuracy on a three year basis. Reuschlein 1986.
  4. Defense Strategy model 1985 and 1986. Here is where my war-gaming background comes in handy.  Claim:  this is the key concept why it is imperative for nations to reduce military spending or suffer long term national security disaster in a next major war decades from now.
  5. Decade by decade GDP of these same countries from 1900 to 1980 shows countries rising on low military and falling on high military generally. Best examples, USA, Japan, Russia, Germany.  Claim:  rise and fall of nations depends on level of military spending.  This supports 1972 Toynbee claim that 23 of 25 empires fell because of their high military spending.  Reuschlein 1986.
  6. Murder and Crime rates of five of same countries are proportional to the military economy. The five are from high to low America, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Japan, R=0.996.  This works best for murder rates, and crime index of murder, crime, criminals.  Sweden does not fit for crime index because of definitional issues such as misdemeanors added to felonies.  These five are all 160 year old societies.  The 400 year old societies of England, France, Massachusetts, and Virginia also correlate, R=0.93, but at a 60% lower rate.  The additional 240 years divided by 400 years is 60%.  This indicates a reduced crime rate for being a stable society, but still affected by the military economy size.  Claim:  social decay of declining empires is a direct result of the military spending levels, both because of the economic stagnation and the level of militarism.  Reuschlein 1989.
  7. Regional Growth proportional to military spending changes R=0.97. Analysis of Bi-Coastal Economy report of 1986 shows this when adding military spending changes and grouping states together around regional hub cities or other logical economic clusters of 17 state cluster mini-regions. Cluster idea partial credit goes to Los Angeles Book Award “Cities and the Wealth of Nations” and Reuschlein’s accounting background.  Reuschlein 1987.
  8. Kondratieff wave not only in economics, but also in droughts, temperature, and in wars. Reuschlein 1991.  Claim:  my list of 56 major events, natural, economics, and wars, shows 20 exact year fits and an average departure of 1.5 years from the 54 year cycle.  Drought data prepared by NOAA in 1988, presented on C-SPAN, started the three year project.
  9. Reuschlein finds 54 year cycle in a variety of volcanic, drought, flood, temperature, precipitation, hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes, and El Nino data. “Trends 90” a key statistical help with other sources.  Working with 14 temperature and 2 precipitation data sets I gradually discovered the pattern.  The difference in hemispheres North and South confirmed the pattern.  My forecasting prowess once earned top honors in a business course on production 1976.
  10. Found nine year cycle in precipitation records 1991. With nine year and 54 year cycles in both temperature and economics, what is the connection?  Failed trying to find it in agriculture.  Then the business production class bails me out as I remember Frederick Taylor’s work finding an ideal temperature to build railroads of 64 degrees Fahrenheit.  A 1986 Climate Change video aired on Maryland PBS by Australian Journalist James Walker leads to Ideal Temperature Zone concept.  Claim:  humans respond to excessive heat with lethargy, creating the link between economic cycles and weather cycles.
  11. Goldstein 1987 finds fifty year cycle in major wars in Europe last five hundred years. Reuschlein extends this to three hundred years of Roman Empire, 200 years of America, for a total of 1000 years with 6 of 17 major war years projected onto the future year 2025.  Pattern is usually #1 versus #2 power after 27 year high growth period when wealth is maximized and new economic differences are maximized.  Then about three years into the new low growth period, at the end of a major cold year two or three year trend, leaders seek a distraction into war and the major war breaks out.  Claim:  both economics and temperature lead to major wars.
  12. Finding: unemployment rate variance across the states fluctuates greatly with the military spending.  For the 1984-1992 period, US military spending % GDP drops 23% overall while the Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell’s home state Maine increases 100%. 12 state clusters representing the Eastern 78% of the country correlate directly with the military changes, R=0.97.  The largest rise in unemployment occurs in Massachusetts as Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill retires in 1986.  Opposite pattern of #7 but same correlation, as the sixteen states that benefited most under Reagan military buildup have fourteen of the highest unemployment rate increases.  The two exceptions?  South Carolina and Georgia with the chair and ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee representing those two states.  Reuschlein 1992.
  13. Richard Schneider asks me to teach my course on “University of the Air” Radio for Peace International 1997. Finding:  recognizing the manufacturing nature of military spending taken as a whole.  1991 University of Colorado professor invites me to write up the manufacturing productivity connection explanation.  Finding:  must look at arms manufacturers as suppliers to the military “factory”.  Then military “factory” is light manufacturing with heavy equipment manufactured by arms industry.  Then absence of a positive product that helps meet human needs like food, clothing, shelter, transportation, fuel, and other hard goods explains how military spending inputs can nourish local communities while giving back only a political service to the larger community or nation.  Necessity is not the issue, national defense is not the issue; lack of a consumer product is the economic flaw in military spending.  Input Output analysis is the key to this understanding.
  14. Spirit Level 2010 by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Puckett shows that income inequality leads to disastrous social and health outcomes. Finding:  Military Spending has much stronger correlations on the six strongest components of their index.  Claim:  Decline of empire is more responsible for poor social conditions than income inequality.
  15. Doctoral Dissertation on Peace Economics in Peace Studies 2009 finds that of eight key concepts in Peace Economics as I define it, Peace Studies programs are very weak on two. Those are the regional state by state economics of military spending and the long cycle of history of booms and busts and wars.  The 54 year cycle is hardly mentioned.  Claim:  not understanding the local impact of military spending and politics beyond the usual generalities avoids findings like all presidents elected during the 11 elections of the Cold War came from an above average military spending state.  Claim:  not understanding the long cycle leads to poor prediction of wars, which leads to military over preparation for constant wars and war threats.
  16. Finding: Klyashtorin’s spectrum analysis of Greenland ice core data shows a very strong 55 year cycle in temperature data over 1400 years.  A friend on a global warming list-serve shared that research from decades ago in circa 2005.  Finding after Hurricane Sandy in 2012:  Running a 55 year moving average over the 1850 to 2010 annual global temperature data smooths the graph into three straight lines, with the last two correlating at .998 and .997 respectively.  Claim:  this proves the existence of the Kondratieff wave   and the natural origins of that cycle show that the economic cycle is not human made but comes from a cycle between land and ocean caused by differential evaporation rates over land and ocean.  Like the four seasons over 12 months this super season occurs over 54 years and occurs despite background changes to the underlying trends caused by the Greenhouse Effect.

Summary

  1. Claim: Recognition of this body of work will lead to better severe weather and major hurricane repeat events predictions as historical records are analyzed and regionalized better.

Claim:  Fortunes will be made in the stock market as the regional impact of major military budget changes is seen to change the fortunes of regionally concentrated stocks and as military states and manufacturing states are seen to move in opposite directions.  Claim:  downward pressure will be strong on all military budgets everywhere as nations begin to understand the self-defeating role high military spending has on a nation’s real defense strength, its economy, over the course of a few decades:  a better balance will be struck between short term defense and long term defense.  Claim:  economic benefits as well as social benefits will accrue to those who find a lower balance of military spending as the way to go.  The million US homicide deaths that occurred in the thirty years after John Lennon’s death could have been cut in half if the military budget had been cut in half, saving 500,000 lives.  Claim:  science will be enhanced greatly as economics and climate change each improve in accuracy by an order of magnitude, with many benefits to the billions of people on this planet.  Claim:  all of these benefits and more will only occur if someone like the Norwegian Nobel Committee helps me get over the publicity and recognition hurdles, so that thousands of scientist can help take this work to the next level.

Seven Page Summary of Main Ideas:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

 

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, November 16), “Why Is the USA an Empire?”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Findings-and-Special-Claims,2017131181.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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