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Archive for the category “Global Warming”

Middle Year Empire Update

Making a big impression wherever I go has become standard fare for me now.  Resistance or passive resistance from some social science types has also become standard for me.  The social science view of the scientific method is quite different than the hard science view.  Fortunately the overall tide of acceptance has steadily gained strength, especially this year.  Thomas Kuhn, in his Structure of Scientific Revolutions would expect as much.

Liberal Arts Prejudice Against Professional Schools

The ivory tower concept can apply to all academic schools to some extent.  But it is especially true for the academics in the social sciences, who deeply resent the higher pay earned in professional schools like business, engineering, law and medicine.  When they have control of campus wide awards systems, they may systematically exclude academics from the professional schools from those awards.  As an undergraduate, I experienced this exclusion from the Phi Beta Kappa honors fraternity and as an engineer had to settle for the Phi Kappa Phi all university “equivalent” with a “separate but equal” feel to it, not unlike racial discrimination may have felt a century ago.  While blacks have made great strides, women still face glass ceilings in many academic settings.  A woman who got more votes than Obama in the 2008 primaries and more votes than Trump in the 2016 general election is still not president, because of the caucus system in the first case and the electoral college in the second case.  Recent attempts to eliminate memory of the first black presidency and his legacy show how far we still have to go in racial matters.

Peace and Justice

So after years of making presentations at the Peace and Justice Studies Association I am suddenly excluded in 2016 after supporting an “unpopular” woman presidential candidate on the list-serve and being attacked on the discussion list once for using the word “stupid” defending myself against a slur by “one of their own” against me, and another time by someone posting “refutations” to a small part of my statement in mild support of the Democrat running against their favored Socialist candidate.  A black woman who stood up for Hillary was later hounded out of the group.  This unethical retaliation through peer review is only possible because of the distinctive nature of my work, which makes blind evaluation not possible.  That some clique calls my work unpopular and tries to limit my expression is clearly refuted by the website reaction to my 36 releases a year.  Enthusiasm for my work is growing internationally and lately among Gary Gygax fantasy gamers, recently pushing me into the top 1% on academia.edu.

My point was that the Socialist refused to call for cutting defense to fund any of his dozen proposals, each specifically paid for with specific taxes on separate links of the official website and never with defense cuts.  The Socialist candidate was anti-war on his official website but never called for defense cuts specifically.  This is a common ruse among mainstream national candidates who do not want to lose any swing states with high military spending.   Sanders himself has said on television that he did not come up with the “Feel the Bern” slogan, although he wishes he had.  In that second case, large font quotes were taken from the Sanders independent website FeeltheBern mostly against war and some against military spending, twisting my words and falsely calling me inaccurate, refusing to admit this is tantamount to calling me a liar.  Gee, thanks.  Shouting against me and then saying you did not call me a liar.  Such courage.  Later this same board member openly put down my Nobel Peace Prize nomination rather than celebrating it like a decent human being would.

Methodology

Then a second person of the threesome putting down my Nobel nomination on the list-serve accuses me of not being methodological when I describe the process of creating my pinpoint accurate sixty year model of US manufacturing productivity.  That second person disagrees with my use of continental measuring of economic activity.  This assumes the social science process of creating questions first before surveying for their answer.  That is not the physical science method of observing first before you build your hypothesis.  Precision is not expected in the social sciences because it is generally only found in the physical sciences.  That difference changes everything, including what is considered the scientific method.  Professional schools rely on more traditional scientific methods but that does not make them non-methodological. This is another example of social science bias against professional schools.  It may be that crowds and human nature are viewed as unstable in the social sciences, but in the physical sciences more leads to more stability, just as in economics, moving from the individual to the family to business to the city to the state to the nation to the continent tends to reduce inaccuracies and add clarification of results, thanks to the law of large numbers.

Science and Society

In another instance, an academic organization dedicated to science and technology studies was busily talking about the differences between cultural and socialism versions of feminism when the topic turned to Russia suddenly and I pointed out some Russian history and the group suddenly disbanded and branded me as a Trump supporter which I am not.  At the next regular meeting of the group my hand was raised and for the first time not acknowledged before the group discussion ended after a presentation.  Once again Letters and Science discriminate against an interdisciplinary individual with practical professional real world experience.  Pure high minded academics don’t want to get too close to the dirty business of politics; they just want to talk about it.

Conference in Toronto

In a history of economics conference in Toronto one month ago, I raised a question in the general session that challenged the speaker’s thoughts on religion and was thereafter banned from further questions.  Most conferences and presentations welcome my questions, but some control freak moderators occasionally try to stifle me.  My own presentation was greeted with a lack of questions from a large group of 27 people.  This was the second time I’d tried to present the whole of my accurate economics theory with a similar result.  When I feature one aspect of my theory at a time, I get great receptiveness, but when I bite off more than they can chew, I get stony looks and cool receptiveness.  It was ironic in that one of the keynote speakers went on and on about how economics is not a science, a widespread belief among economic historians, that was well received.  But when I present my tightly accurate results of the science I’ve created about economics, it is a bridge to far for them, that’s not possible they are thinking.  When I break the ideas down to digestible chunks, they usually greet the material warmly.  Once again, Thomas Kuhn would not be surprised by any of this.  Toronto has a wonderful Quaker meeting house group, a Whole Foods that acts like a cafeteria at lunchtime, and a vibrant high tech industry with the Toronto newspaper leading the way.  Baked Lays potato chips are far more delicious in Toronto than the flat shaped and flavorless variety sold in the United States.

Fields of Knowledge Addenda

Main Ideas July 2017, the link to further reading on academia.edu for this press release, consists of seven pages:

The first three pages are 8 PowerPoint frames each on three main topics:

First is “Social Decay of Empire” and Stages of Empire,

Second is “Weather Wealth and Wars” or Global Warming Cycle

Third is “Dungeons and Dragons” Origins of Gary Gygax’s Work

Fourth is “Summary” Military DisEconomics thirteen key correlations

Fifth is “Reductio Ad Absurdum” about the New Macroeconomic Model

Sixth is the “Nine Areas of Mastery” needed to build the Reuschlein Model

Seventh is “10 Scientific Revolution Facts” by Thomas Kuhn

An eleventh point by Kuhn is that an outsider or newcomer like Reuschlein is usually the person who comes up with the new paradigm.  Here is the detailed link:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted and Given Odds for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-17
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

Math: Reductio Ad Absurdum

Economists tend to say “one the one hand, on the other hand.”  A lot of people get frustrated by this overly cautious social science way of doing things.  In the math world, there is the principle of reductio ad absurdum, that if you cannot disprove a theory after you’ve tried and tested it every way you can think of, it must be true.  Or more literally, if its opposite is shown to be false, then it is true.  (See my SUMMARY paper on my academia.edu website for several other key tests besides the model building.)  Reductio Ad Absurdum is the principle that has allowed me to develop Peace Economics.  Here are the 28 steps I followed to develop the Peace Economics model of manufacturing productivity over the last eighty years of the United States economy in the twentieth century.

General Characteristics of the Model

The idea that military spending is essentially economic waste has the following characteristics.  Models are more accurate the larger the economy and the longer the time period measured.  Military spending has a place holder function in the economy, as it acts like manufacturing by distributing money to the stakeholders.  But it is unlike manufacturing because no consumer product is being produced.  This interrupts the cycle of producing, testing against the marketplace, and refining and improving a product, and giving something to the consumer.  Alternatively, military spending looks like lost capital investment.  Adding the capital investment lost in military spending tends to reach a common total among leading Western economies.  Because military spending mimics manufacturing, it correlates positively in the regional models with economic growth and employment changes.  Actually this positive correlation is misleading, because it also lowers manufacturing when military spending increases, so the positive in high military spending states is offset by the negative in low military but high manufacturing states, with a net loss overall.  That makes military spending a transfer program like social safety-net programs, which stabilizes society but does not produce a net economic benefit.  The beneficiaries of this warfare state are usually upper middle class, unlike welfare state beneficiaries who are usually lower working class.

Creating Economic Model, 28 Steps

Each of these 28 steps are followed in capital letters by one or more of the nine fields of expertise that enabled me to develop Peace Economics, as listed in my RESUME paper or Curriculum Vitae on my academia.edu website.  Then at the bottom are the total mentions of each experience of each of the nine fields.  Each of these nine fields represents a minimum of at least three full time equivalent work years.

#1 Bar chart from Ruth Sivard found, military vs. manufacturing productivity.  POLITICS

PEACE ECONOMICS

#2 Graph the bar chart.  MATH WARGAMING

#3 Correlate raw data.  MATH BUSINESS

#4 Drop one country and correlate again. WARGAMING (VISION SENSE)

#5 Weighted average three continents and correlate r = -0.997.  ACCOUNTING

#6 After perfect cross continent proof, create long term model in leading economic country, US.  MATH (TRIANGULATE)

#7 Graph economic growth rate plus military spending.  ENGINEERING (MODELING)

#8 Recognize deficits offset military spending to explain World War II.  ACCOUNTING

#9 Recognize Kondratiev Wave explains fifties.  ENGINEERING POLITICS GLOBAL WARM

#10 Recognize manufacturing productivity explains better than economic growth. BUSINESS

#11 Look to establish parameters for long term US model.  ENGINEERING

#12 Use a variety of multi year moving averages to locate peaks and troughs over time.  MATH

#13 Use formula given by a friend when peak to trough and trough to peak matches that formula. POLITICS ENGINEERING GLOBAL WARMING

#14 Know that the answer to all differential equations is a sine wave.  MATH ENGINEERING

#15 Compute amplitude sine wave using peak and trough of economic growth.  ACCOUNTING

#16 Compute values each year and compare to actual values. ACCOUNTING ENGINEERING

#17 When annual comparisons show differences, compute running total of variations over time. ACCOUNTING SCIENCE

#18 Note that running total approaches zero periodically.  ACCOUNTING MATH ENGINEERING SCIENCE

#19 Consult Encyclopedia Britannica on economic cycles.  BUSINESS

#20 Note periodic perfection of running total error follows Juglar 8 to 10 year cycle.  BUSINESS

#21 Note that model drops to 7.0 lower rate during Great Depression.  ENGINEERING

#22 Note that model drops 3.7 lower rate during seventies Oil Crisis.  ENGINEERING

#23 Note that down periods perfect out at lower level every three years or so. BUSINESS

#24 Note that down periods just return to normal after about a decade. WARGAMING

#25 Note that starting period 1920 to 1922 requires using a three year average for the 1921 year ACCOUNTING ENGINEERING MATH

#26 Note that 1939 to 1947 data gap fills smoothly with no productivity gain for the four war years and average productivity assumed for the years 1940, 1941, and 1946.  ENGINEERING

#27 Note the linear reduction in total model volatility in six successive Juglar cycles from the twenties to the eighties.  ACCOUNTING SCIENCE

#28 Note model extended for another thirteen years with similar accuracy r = .999.  SCIENCE

Fields of Knowledge

Fields of knowledge used at each stage of these 28 development steps, ranked ordered by steps depending on that knowledge:

ENGINEERING 11, ACCOUNTING 8, MATH 7, BUSINESS 5, SCIENCE 4,

POLITICS 3, WARGAMING 3, GLOBAL WARMING 2, PEACE ECONOMICS 2

The top three, engineering, accounting, and math are mentioned 26 times, while the bottom six are mentioned only 19 times.  Clearly my engineering accounting and math skills are more important than economic skills to produce this model.  I had to drop out of a Ph.D. Economics program because they were taking me down the wrong path in spite of recognizing my major points.  I consider my engineering degree my most challenging degree, with accounting second, both far more difficult than an economics degree.  Politics was essential with an exposure to the social sciences and a broad liberal education coming from that pursuit, and with the two most crucial pieces of the puzzle coming from that exposure.

Conclusion

The proofs of this model are so many and so detailed, that it is impossible to imagine some other true model coming along to take its place.  The dead end nature of military economics, the lift from borrowing provided by deficits (in the economy of the nation whose currency is used as a reserve currency for two thirds of banking worldwide), the 54 year cycle and the nine year cycle are all conclusively embedded in the super accurate model created.  Take any of those elements out of the model, and you can continue the ambiguity of all other economic models of the past and present.  Or you can recognize that economics has just moved a step closer to being a real science, like the physical sciences.

Full eleven page explanation of this model including numbers used:  PEACE ECONOMICS

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted and Given Odds for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-17
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

Wargamer to Peace Economist

Looking back over my life, asking how I got to this point of nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, I have to consider my Avalon Hill wargame experience crucial.

Math and Games

I started with things like Erector sets, Lincoln logs, American bricks, and just blocks.  But there were four siblings and we played board games together a lot, like Careers, Monopoly, Risk, and many others.  I fell in love with two things early on, Games and Math.  Getting encyclopedias when I was seven, and later the Time Life book on Mathematics really got me going.  I loved the way that math book showed all 36 possible combinations of two dice, one in red and one in green.  Dice became the passion that united my two great interests, games and math.  I went on to play games on Democracy, Summit, and standards like Checkers, Chess, and Go.  You name it; I’d try it and be good at it.  But they were all too simple until my older brother and I discovered the Avalon Hill game Chancellorsville in 1961.  We also tried Tactic II, Gettysburg, and D-Day, and I never let him win.  So I needed a new challenge and along came the Avalon Hill General magazine in December 1964.  That was my freshman year moving from five frustrating years in the public schools to a Catholic High School.  That was the last semester in high school I had anything less than an A in math or science.  This was decades before the grade inflation of today, and I was top of my math classes the rest of the time in high school.  I found opponents wanted in the General from other high schools and UW Madison and for the next ten years spent about three times a week, fifteen hours a week, in wargames.  I was a master at the math and probabilities and also the rules, and these two, rules and math, were my edge.  I loved the maps and terrain and playing counters and movement just as well.  Soon I was inventing new rules, new games, and reinventing math before being taught it in the Trapezoidal Rule, the Pythagorean Theorem, and the Binomial Expansion Theorem.  Endless imagination and experimentation became the norms of my life.

Technician in Society

I became a great Nerd.  But humans are social animals, too, and I was a lonely boy who needed a social life.  Opponents Wanted ads and a genius wargamer 90 miles to my Southeast came to the rescue.  No one wrote more articles for wargaming magazines than Gary Gygax, inventing and imagining all the things you can do with wargames.  This local role model noticed me and invited me into his new wargaming club, the International Federation of Wargaming.  I started writing articles too, and inventing games, and starting a wargaming convention in Madison the year after his convention in Lake Geneva.  I attended the first seven GenCons from 1968 to 1974 inclusive, winning Waterloo and tying Afrika Corp the first two Avalon Hill wargames tournaments in 1973 and 1974..  Then I gave up wargaming and Gary agreed to sell my stuff on consignment the last time I saw him in 1974.  Gary welcomed me into his world and I made many trips to Lake Geneva and he came to my first wargames convention in Madison in June 1969.  I had learned the social skills of being a wargaming organizer in Madison, Wisconsin.  I learned many skills, math, games, rules, strategy, geography, military history, and organizing in those ten years of wargaming averaging 15 hours a week, three years of full time equivalent work.  That creative foundation laid the way forward for my fifteen year career in politics from 1978 to 1993 where I learned the issues, campaigning, lobbying, and creating legislation and debates, submitting the 1984 National Delegate Selection Plan for the Democratic Party of Oregon, and meeting at a high level Rainbow Coalition meeting with Jesse Jackson in Chicago in February 1987.  Everywhere I was getting great things done.  Politics is where I discovered Sivard’s work on military spending in 1983.  I discovered the Kondratiev Wave in 1981 from a close friend (Lyman G. Hill, XIII).  We were both in the YMCA Singles Association; where I was president in 1978 and group facilitator from 1978 to 1981.

Summary

These formative experiences combined the endless variety of games and the endless variety of politics into the necessary knowledges that made the Peace Economics breakthroughs possible.  In both macroeconomics and global warming theory these complex yet precise and elegant models will define how people see the coming century.  In both cases stubborn academic bureaucracies have resisted the compelling math of my discoveries.  But I have Thomas Kuhn on my side, knowing that new generations will adopt these basic discoveries and the resistant old order will eventually die off.  The new paradigms will revolutionize the stock market and predictions of the future as the naysayers and doubters are pushed to the side.  Sometime around the year 2025 the world will cool off for two or three years leading into a major war followed by global warming at a faster than ever pace and we will be prepared to mitigate these circumstances or we will blunder ahead ignorant of my discoveries.  The choice is up to each of us individually.  Collectively, if we learn, I will get my rewards.  Today my term “Peace Economics” is routinely marginalized by peace groups as just a large sum of money, seldom if ever considered a major driving force of lost opportunity in the economy, by groups like the Berlin Peace Congress last year and Code Pink this year.  Please stop using my terminology for misleading and understated purposes.  Nations and peoples rise or fall with their choice of military spending levels.

Here is the suit pocket sized booklet for the twenty-fifth anniversary of Peace Economics:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Here are a few key pages about the climate cycle ending in 2025, warned about above:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._WWW_course_9p._2014

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-2017

contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com for more info www.realeconomy.com

Telos Institute Lessons

Lessons of Three Great Conferences,  By Professor Robert Reuschlein

Asymmetrical Warfare, Telos Institute, NYU, January 14-15, 2017  

I had great success with the presentation, “Goal of Terrorists: Raising the Cost to Society” at the Telos Institute in New York University.  Asymmetric Warfare raises the cost to society of warfare.  Those in the military industrial complex believe that warfare can enhance themselves and their society.  This belief led to the Iraq War.  Those employing asymmetric warfare believe they can punish the military society’s population enough to make them give up.  This was the strategy that won the Vietnam War.  The asymmetric warrior (aka “terrorist”) believes a militaristic society will implode when enough pressure is put on them.  These so-called terrorists are even more right than they realize.  The eight years of the Reagan Military Buildup tripled the national debt (quadrupling if you add in the 4 Bush years).  The seven years of the second Bush military buildup wars led to the Great Recession, thanks to the surge in military spending in fiscal 2008 and overheated real estate markets in the corruption prone high military states.  Blowback was immediate and internal and escalates over time.  This is exactly what Osama Bin Laden wanted out of the Western response to his provocations, saying in a 2005 speech:  “So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy.”

In my empire economics speech I outlined the true cost of militarization on America, depleting our capital and research resources leading to economic and social decay, including high crime.  Empire stagnation includes the stagnation of the political process in America.  Militarization leads to the direct depletion of the manufacturing sector much faster than the more obvious and visible trade treaty losses of factories.  In the decade after 2001 terrorism has quadrupled.  Goading us into attack has been a goal of the terrorists.  I gave the keynote speaker a copy of my 24 page booklet after his opening speech; he was not impressed but politely took it.  After hearing my speech he keeps reading it while others spoke.  At the end of the conference, he approached me in the cloakroom speechless with a puppy dog look in his eyes, so I said a few words to him.  His speech could have been used for a dozen footnotes to my speech, but he knew I had the big picture down cold.  Telos Institute is a great place that welcomes new ideas, so a colleague has been encouraging me to present there for some time.  That colleague was right on, they loved me there and I fit right in.

 

Ethics and Mental Health Conference, Viterbo U., La Crosse, WI, April 6-8, 2017

The best presentation here was “Gun Deaths and Public Health: What is the Mental Health Connection?” Steve Miles, University of Minnesota Medical School.  Dr. Miles major finding is that gun ownership is proportional to gun deaths.  Handgun suicides are ten times as likely for a kid from a gun household.  You are 4.5 times more likely to be shot when carrying a gun.  Gun owners are eight times more likely to threaten murder. Gun households have four times the homicide rate, seven times the suicide rate, and sixteen times the accidental gun death rate.

This compares to my finding that murder rates and crime rates are proportional to the military spending of a developed country.  The inference is that a militarized society is more likely to murder, all kinds of murder, but suicides are not proportional to military spending.  Perhaps the more militarized portions of a military society are conversant with guns and inclined to own guns.  Are these the people with military training we are talking about?  I do not know that particular evidence, but it does seem likely that those familiar with gun use would be inclined to either join or be from the military.  Military training has advanced since the fifties into a very effective trainer of killers.  Past wars had as many as 78% of soldiers who never fired guns, and in one case a dozen musket rounds were found in a soldiers gun, so reluctant to kill other people that person was.  That changed in US military training in the fifties.

More detail at this link:

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

 

Geospatial Summit, University of Wisconsin, Madison, April 26, 2017

My presentation was videotaped by WKOW TV for a climate voices unit Greg Jeschke plans to produce in the near future.  My talk was titled “How Climate Change trends impact humans, the economy, and politics.”  Temperature studies by industrial engineers have long shown that human performance is reduced at above normal temperatures, reducing productivity on hot days.  There are at least three other sets of evidence that show this effect on economics:  geography, stock market, and US history.  The major war cycle also comes from economic cycles that come from global warming cycles.  Sharp cooling trends of two or three years duration often precede major wars, and volcanoes can trigger this process.  Economic differences expand in the high growth half of the cycle, leading to peak wealth, a new world order, and a major war about three years into the next slow half cycle.  That economic change at the end of the growth cycle may encourage politicians to look for a way to distract the public from the slowing economy with a war.

This talk explored explanations of these various linkages with temperature and climate change, showing that the three types of cycles are all linked and start with the climate changes.  Environmental determinism is in my opinion a baseless pejorative narrative to paint a rational theory as something it is not, as racist and colonialist.  The proof of this is that human performance, economic history, and the stock market are all confirming the cool improves and heat stifles narrative.  You have to ignore those three other proofs to come up with a racist and colonialist narrative that only sounds plausible in one school of thought, imperialism, not in an interdisciplinary context.  Triangulation from at least three different directions is the standard of proof I seek in all my work on these two great theories of economics and global warming.

 

Summary

These three issues are the main issues in my research.  Empire Economics is my best presentation and a version of that was used at Telos.  With military spending the prime cause, empires decay from a lack of productivity coming from the military resources.  That in turn leads to the social decay of empires, included murder rates, health problems, and lack of social mobility.  In America it is obvious that many celebrities are now sons or daughters of other celebrities, as America has traded places in the last generation or so with Europe in terms of being a class based society. Crime and corruption is strongly correlated with military spending both internationally and within the American states, including the poor mortgage practices leading up to the Great Recession.  Crime is the easily identified exemplar of the social decay of empire concept.  The right wing thinks moral decay is bringing down America, but my work supports the opposite theory, that the self inflicted wound of wasting too much military spending at the expense of manufacturing and construction economic growth sectors causes the long term rise in crime, poor health, stagnant politics, and class divergence in America.

But the key to perfecting the long term 60 year US economic model is the 54 year Kondratiev cycle.  And the key to proving the existence of that cycle is linking up the three versions of the cycle, the natural cycle, the economic cycle, and the political war cycle.  I’ve always sensed it was absurd to consider these three cycles separately.  I’m convinced that the order of those cycles is natural, economic, then political, both by the logic of the linking mechanisms and the slightly diminishing accuracy of the proving phenomena in my 56 events chart.  As always, I’m looking for multiple proofs of concept along multidisciplinary lines of seeing past the silos of isolated thinking into the broader concept of looking at events from multiple points of view to grasp the correct essence of it all.

Link to the actual Telos Institute and Geospatial Summit powerpoint slides are here:

https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt._29_slide_5_p._2017

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Living the Creative Life

Introduction

What does it take to make a person creative?  Endless experimentation, trying new things, and varying the way one absorbs knowledge.  Aim for the top, and you might not get there, but you will at least get near to the top.  In the words of Carlos Castaneda, choose a path with a heart and follow it.  Early on, I chose the path of truth.  Math and science were logical extensions of that path.  I did not understand some things, but I would note them in my mind and sooner or later an explanation would emerge.  When some would call it black and others call it white, I looked for the underlying truth, the gray area where both were partially true in certain ways, where one fit better in certain circumstances and the other fit better in other circumstances.  Ambiguity was not to be tolerated; exploration would clear up the ambiguity eventually.  How the world worked was an endless process of discovery.  Each of the major areas of life was meant to be mastered eventually, leave no stone unturned.  I had no sense of self worth until I got a 100 in an arithmetic exam in the 3rd grade.  Later I tied for highest in the state on a Mathematics Association of America exam in high school.  So I asked for the toughest four year program at the University of Wisconsin, Electrical Engineering, and made four honor societies graduating from the 3rd ranked such program in the nation.  Following a fiancé to Oregon, I fell out of love for her and into love of that state.  Out of work, I got an MBA at Oregon State University because of low tuition and a required Econometrics course.  After a year in LifeSpring trainings I decided on a career leading to the US presidency.  Five years later, I discovered the bar chart that began Peace Economics.  I wrote Peace Economics in 1986, three years after the bar chart discovery, developing the next theory of macroeconomics in the process, with a .999 correlation of a simple sixty year model of US economics.  So I changed my goals to science and by May 1991 I had published the theory of the global warming and cooling cycle.  The world has still not beaten a path to my door, so now I’ve been marketing ever since.  I earned a doctorate in 2009, and got a Nobel Peace Prize nomination in early 2016, and wrote two Encyclopedia of War entries in October 2016.

Childhood

It began with my mother reading to me at bedtime.  Then it went into Erector Sets, Lincoln Logs, and American Bricks, and of course Building Blocks.  Then my uncle said he might become an engineer.  Then I beat my older brother and cousin at checkers, even though grandpa, a law school valedictorian and politician had taught them the game. Then there was the wonderful Time Life Mathematics book, and World Book Encyclopedias. The four of us kids would play board games together, like Monopoly and Careers.  We would play baseball and football out in the street with neighbor kids, and build fox and goose trails in the snow in winter.  In summer we would explore the local parks and arboretum, and sometimes bike five miles out in the country to catch frogs in the back of the state fish hatchery property.  Toads were found in the arboretum near the Wingra Park lagoon.  Estes rockets would sometimes parachute into the top of a tree.  In kindergarten I loved art, and in the third grade developed a lifelong love of arithmetic and mathematics.

Adolescence

Then my love of games took a leap upward with the discovery of Avalon Hill wargames at age 11.  At first I played my older brother at these games, never letting him win, and then I discovered the opponents wanted ads in the Avalon Hill General and soon played many people older than me, never losing.  For ten years I averaged 15 hours a week in wargames in the high school college age years.  I developed a specialty in World War II history by age 16, stunning my high school American history teacher in the final exam on exactly that topic. Then I won the art, science and mathematics awards in my class of 210 in my college prep Catholic high school.  I developed the philosophy of doing my homework and getting good grades, but stretching my mind with new things outside of the schoolwork in the rest of my life.

Young Adult

I had been mistaken for a priest, a lawyer, and a political science major in my twenties.  A dutiful Catholic, I went to church every Sunday until age 23, and then tried four other religions, Baha’i at age 25, Religious Science founded by Ernest Holmes who wrote the book “The Science of the Mind” about metaphysics in the late twenties, Nichiren Shushu Buddhism, the top religion of Japan, at 32 for two years of morning and evening chanting.  Then at age 36 I settled on Unitarianism.  I studied the “Teachings of Jesus” for four years of Sunday afternoon studies at the Quakers around age 50.  I ended up agreeing with Marcus Borg of the Jesus Seminar scholars that Jesus primarily opposed the domination systems of the rich and the Pharisees.  Elitism alienates those in power from the rest of us in a way that ends up self limiting them.  My twenties were very experimental years of consciousness raising.  Listening Exercises at 21, Social Liturgy Wednesdays at the Newman Center at age 23, Experimental College courses taken or taught at age 25, YMCA Singles Association age 27-29 becoming a certified group leader and elected president, 400 hours of LifeSpring trainings at age 28, and then a leap into politics at age 29 to 43 in Eugene Oregon.

Politics

My politics began with 400 meetings of events in the Community Calendar and Political Calendar at age 29, where I learned a little bit about everything in that world, from the Citizens Party and Libertarians to the Jailers Convention.  I attended all four political weekly discussion groups, Demo Forum, Labor Forum, Rubicon Society, and Republican Roundtable. I got involved in local government, state legislatures, and county, congressional, and state levels of the Democratic Party of Oregon.  I was elected or appointed delegate or chairman or executive committee at many levels of the party, including writing the National Delegate Selection plan for the state and later being elected National Convention Delegate under that plan.  I was on the Electoral College slate in 1984, and invited to the Clinton Inauguration in 1993.

Science

Social scientists and academics are a very skeptical crowd.  Peace Economics was very popular until the end of the Cold War.  Not knowing academics before my dissertation in 2009, I made a lot of mistakes and missed a lot of opportunities to accredit my work.  Doing work an order of magnitude beyond the Economists and Global Warming scientists does not sit well with the powers that be.  My in depth interdisciplinary background in nine fields essential to the development of Peace Economics left me without a peer group primed and ready to understand me.  There was so much the academic community needed to learn to catch up with me, yet I didn’t have time for several dissertations in the arcane details of several fields trapped in silo thinking.  Just as five religions helped me triangulate better to the see the real truths, so did the nine fields of math, wargaming, science, engineering, accounting, business, politics, peace economics, and global warming.  Looking at things from the overall picture is just not the same as looking as things from the bottom up.  Triangulating from a variety of fields is not the same as mastering the arcane details of any one field.  Both economics and climate change theory have huge blind spots.

Summary

Throughout this time I was guided by honesty, dislike of bullies, and the search to understand everything about how the world works.  Building a scientific model of the world was my North Star.  Endless experimentation and experiencing were my methods.  Along the way I learned to identify key facts, to take one good new understanding from every new experience, meeting, or lecture.  This gave me excellent long term memory sometimes at the sacrifice of short term memory.  It also explains how I’m better at math, science, and vocabulary, than at reading comprehension.  Thus I’m good at abstract thinking and especially good at summarizing.

Links to Resume and peer reviewed Technical Peace Economics respectively:

https://www.academia.edu/15878982/RESUME

https://www.academia.edu/23034796/TECHNICAL_Peace_Economics_8p._2014-2016

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute,                         Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017,                                       Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Hottest Downloads All Time

Particularly since my SAGE Encyclopedia of War Entries came out in October 2016, my international downloads from my academia.edu website have tripled.  Here are the hottest papers, mainly since then and since my Nobel Peace Prize nomination in early 2016.  USA interest has stayed about the same, but international interest has exploded.  These are listed by title first, then downloads, then views, then percentage of downloads per view.  Ranked by downloads, some long standing articles have as many downloads as the end of the list, but rank low on percentage so are not included.  These eight are the hotties that you may have missed and want to take a second look at.  They cover a good cross section of my most important work.

 

Military Economy, Direct 11, 15 pages, 54/65=83%

Here are the realities of the military economy, simply by studying the historical data looking for the obvious patterns, with a huge boost from Ruth Sivard’s bar charts.  Economists have talked themselves out of the scientific method as a physicist or engineer would understand it.  They are unfortunately convinced that a scientific analysis of the historical data can never lead to a science of economics.  Their belief system has stopped them from making the progress I easily made as an engineer.

https://www.academia.edu/31717739/Military_Economy_Direct_11_2013-2016_15_pages

 

SAGE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF WAR, 6 pages, 50/93=54%

Releasing this last October 2016 lead to a tripling of the rate of international downloads the last six months, as the combination of peer review and the Nobel Peace Prize nomination boosted my international credibility.  I am holding back some of my best work for release in a comprehensive book, as piecemeal release only benefits certain specialized publications and not the general understanding.

https://www.academia.edu/28849523/SAGE_POLITICAL_ECONOMY_OF_WAR_2016_6p

 

High Interest Releases, 12 pages, 23/36=64%

Readers have scoured the older releases for a few good gems.  Here they are, a motley lot, but with very interesting implications for understanding our world and my discoveries better.  I especially like the one on how civilizations evolve with temperature changes. https://www.academia.edu/29770996/HIGH_INTEREST_Releases_2013-2014_12p

 

History Presidents Military Economy, 3 pages, 21/34=62%

I received multiple requests for an article on this subject, but I have refrained to accumulate more interest in a book.  Nevertheless, this is a good beginning on why one advisor has recommended that I concentrate on publishing with the economic historians.  The Great Depression and World War II are especially significant. https://www.academia.edu/4044532/HISTORY_Presidents_Military_Economy_1910-2009_3p._2013

 

Framework for Academic Class, 6 pages, 20/60=33%

This outlines the basics of a class taught around this material, including subjects for about 30 class periods, my own multidisciplinary background that made this all possible, and a summary of the 13 key high correlations that define the general subject matter.

https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages_2015

 

Militarism Control Empire Social Decay, 6 pages, 18/50=36%

This is where I begin the discussion of the social decay of empire, linking the multiple lines of fracture of the society with the whole process of depleting the economic engine of the society as the first domino in a series of important dominoes that fall together.

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_6p

 

SAGE Military Keynesianism, 5 pages, 10/27=37%

This second SAGE encyclopedia of war entry has been recommended by an oil country former finance minister with one million views on his academia.edu website.  Explains the main flaw in Keynes’ theory, the assumption that non-productive work still can stimulate the economy.

https://www.academia.edu/29175791/SAGE_Military_Keynesianism_October_12_2016_5_p

 

Wars, Coldest Year, 2 pages, 8/21=38%

Looking over several of the earth cycle press releases, this one has stood out as a very interesting finding that major wars tend to break out at the end of two or three year cooling spells.  Of course, this also happens after the 27 years of plenty have creating a new world order, and, as that prosperity begins to fade tensions are at a peak.

https://www.academia.edu/5479721/WARS_Coldest_Year_Weather_Wealth_and_Wars_2p._1999

Still, I personally recommend these 9 pages for better understanding about the global warming cycle:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

 

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Meeting Geek Number One

When I look back over six decades of life, probably my most profound mentor of all, Gary Gygax, became the number one Geek in America in 2002.  From 1964 to 1974 I had a close association with Gary Gygax when we both were two of the leading wargamers in America.

Beginning With Avalon Hill

In the beginning there was the Avalon Hill Company of Baltimore, who gave us games that took us to the next level up in complexity from chess.  In 1958 Gary Gygax started with their game Gettysburg, and in 1961 Bob Reuschlein started with Chancellorsville.  Both were games of the Civil War, the conflict of America’s greatest president.  When I got tired of playing just my older brother and he got tired of losing to me, along came the Avalon Hill General magazine in 1964.  Those first issues of that great Christmas present allowed me to advertise for and find opponents wanted in Madison Wisconsin.  There was one article writer that stood out from the crowd with a barrage of articles in those magazines, and that was Gary Gygax, who I soon found out was also from Wisconsin.  Reuschlein was not nearly as active as Gygax in those magazines, but he won three of their contests, wrote about three articles there and one popular one called “Simultaneous Movement” for Strategy and Tactics magazine.  Bob was constantly in the opponents wanted column and wrote several letters to the editor.  These activities became the outside activities that helped him win the Math and Science Award in his Catholic college prep high school, Edgewood of Madison.

Finding Community

Wargaming helped him break out of his shell as a quiet shy young man.  He learned to play games like Diplomacy with others from the Madison area that responded to his opponents wanted ads.  A gamers group in Madison developed not unlike Gary’s Lake Geneva Tactical Studies Group.  When Gary Gygax founded the International Federation of Wargaming in 1966, many of those in Madison were ready to join when asked.  That club became the largest one in America during the Vietnam War years.  With two self starters like Gary and Bob in the same state, Wisconsin became one of eight Senate districts and Bob was elected unanimously in that district.  Furthermore, Reuschlein was asked to fill the special office of Coordinator of Wargaming, becoming the Ratings chair.  Gary challenged Bob to a play by mail game of Battle of the Bulge, Walter Cronkite’s favorite game.  Gary loved offense and took the Germans, Bob loved defense and took the Americans.  After a long hard fought game, a massive Reuschlein counterattack got lucky and ended the game as Gary resigned.  Impressed by this game between Gary age 28 and Reuschlein age16, next year Gary invited Reuschlein over one Saturday to play Waterloo with a friend from Chicago.  Gary thoughtfully watched and circled the table in his living room as this time the patented Reuschlein counterattack ran into consistent worst possible luck, became depleted, and ended in a loss.  This would be Reuschlein’s only loss in 20 official games played in the International Federation of Wargaming from 1966 to 1974.  Using a chess like scoring system, starting at 1500 points, Reuschlein became the highest rated player in the IFW with about 1905 points to the second highest score of 1720.

Wargaming Conventions

After a convention in Pennsylvania went bankrupt in 1967, the first successful wargaming convention was launched by Gary Gygax in Lake Geneva in August 1968 with one hundred people in attendance, including, of course, both Gary Gygax and Robert Reuschlein.  With Avalon Hill Boardgames, tabletop miniatures, and Diplomacy being played all over the Horticultural Center, all had a good time in the one day long Saturday meeting ending at dinner time.  The next year Reuschlein tried to emulate this success with his own Madison wargaming convention in June 1969.  Attendance that first year in the Madison Community Center on Doty Street, one block over from the downtown state capital building, was Gary Gygax among the 24 that gathered that day.  Three years later attendance at the Madison Wargaming Convention peaked at 98.  Reuschlein graduated from college that June in 1972, and the convention collapsed to 23 again under new leadership in 1973, never to be heard from again.  That first convention was covered by Gary Bender of the local ABC affiliate, who later became a fixture on ABC Sports for the national broadcasters.

Moving On

When Robert Reuschlein left Wisconsin for nineteen years in the State of Oregon from June 1974 to May 1993, he also left wargaming behind.  Gary Gygax agreed to sell Reuschlein’s remaining games at Gen Con in 1974.  After spending about 15 hours a week playing wargames from 1964 to 1974, Reuschlein worked about three years full time equivalent at wargaming those ten years.  Gary probably doubled that workload.  Gen Con with now about 300 in attendance finally offered a tournament in Avalon Hill Wargames in 1973, where Reuschlein defeated the editor of the Avalon Hill General, based in Baltimore, to win that first three game single elimination tournament.  That was using the game Waterloo and the next year, 1974, Reuschlein came back to Wisconsin to play in his final wargaming tournament at Gen Con, winning the first two games of Afrika Korps, settling for co-champion when time did not allow the championship game to be played.  Gary was moving on as well, as Bob played a prototype game of Dungeons and Dragons on Gary’s porch.  That last convention featured Gary Gygax in a sand box with wizards and the like playing something the rest of the wargamers thought was a little bit crazy.  Crazy like a fox, that was the first year of Dungeons and Dragons game sales.  Just a thousand games that first year, 1974, soon to be millions of games by 1978 sold each year.  1974 was the last year Bob Reuschlein saw his friend Gary Gygax.

Epilogue

Had Bob known Gary Gygax needed one thousand dollars to launch his new project, Bob had the money then, and life could have been so different for both of them.  Gary needed a friend and gamer to invest with him, not a stranger.  But then Bob would not have invented Peace Economics in 1986 and the Global Warming theory in 1991, both born out of his political career in Oregon.  Interestingly enough, both Gary and Bob started their great inventions at age 35, twelve years apart just as the age difference in that first play by mail game.  Gary Gygax’s idea for a role playing game with levels has sparked a new industry and made him millions of dollars with millions of fans.  Bob Reuschlein’s ideas have yet to be monetized and mass produced:  many a spark has been lit, yet many do not appreciate the very real importance of his inventions.  Reuschlein has finally turned to credentialism, earning a doctorate late in life in 2009 and starting a blogging campaign in 2013 reminiscent of the many articles Gary Gygax wrote for magazines for many years before the money started rolling in.  Just as Gary Gygax’s ideas seemed a little goofy to the traditional wargamer, Reuschlein’s ideas seem goofy to the Peace and Justice academic crowd.  Gary Gygax turned the corner by moving into fantasy, perhaps Reuschlein will turn the corner by moving into the fast paced financial investment arena, rather than the slow paced academic arena.  Peace academics are into social movements, not business opportunities.  Politics is a black hole that swallows all but a few.  Honesty is dangerous in both politics and academics, yet essential in good science.  But to “one’s own self be true and to no one else canst thou be false.”  Ageism also confronts Bob, as does the idea that economics can never be a science.  Global warming scientists are similarly slow to comprehend the meaning of real accuracy.

Principal link showing qualification for Nobel Peace Prize:

https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017,

Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Biography for Nobel Prize

Introduction

It’s that time of year before the February 1st deadline (midnight Norway time is 5pm Chicago time) for nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Here are 19 press releases that tell the biographical tale of the long evolution of the stunningly precise Peace Economics theory.  The interdisciplinary breadth of my background was all necessary to create this theory.  Any missing components of my Nine Areas of Mastery and this development would not have been possible.  Art and Religion add flavor to the Nine but are not crucial.  That also makes it nearly impossible to find a peer group to judge my work adequately.  I turn to the Norwegian Nobel Committee for judgment of extraordinary work.  To nominate:  http://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/.

Nine Masteries

MATH was my first great North Star to follow and lead to all the rest.  Precision and imagination were crucial to using this powerful tool.  I developed three mathematical methodologies before I was taught them in the schools, so I learned how to take discovery to the next logical step.

WARGAMING I loved board games as a child and war games had enough challenge and realism to meet my needs.  Gary Gygax, the inventor of “Dungeons and Dragons” with a biography entitled “Empire of Imagination” became a mentor of imagination to follow and gave me the background to understand the strategic military side of military spending.

SCIENCE Physics provided a parallel universe with accurate pursuit of the scientific method.

ENGINEERING gave me the excellence to apply Math and Physics in the pursuit of working mechanisms.

ACCOUNTING gave me a system to evaluate and organize numbers and the determination to come to an honest result when all else fails.

BUSINESS taught me many tools to organize people to achieve a specific practical purpose.

POLITICS gave me a breadth of vision in the social sciences and the world of people to fill in the holes left over from deep pursuit of the more narrow areas cited above.

PEACE ECONOMICS took six months to produce the long term United States economic model and the first book that brought it all together.

NATURAL GLOBAL WARMING took me three years to comprehend the linkages of the three 54 year cycles of temperature, economics, and wars.  Then another twenty years to find that the 55 year moving average produced three straight lines in the 160 year global temperature record.

The Journey

The following nineteen topics represent the biographical section of my press releases, detailing all the above.  Complete copies of each release are in the link provided here and at the end. https://www.academia.edu/31102462/BIOGRAPHY_for_Nobel_Peace_Prize_2013-2017_23_p

Special Award 9-2-16

This Chicago suburban peace group awards a $1000 top prize for an annual essay contest.  They gave me a special recognition award and five minute speech.  I brought the house down.

Denmark Hamlet 8-20-16

This meeting of the Engineers for Peace held in Denmark had some interesting events.

CIA Live History 4-16-16

This is meant to take things out of the conspiracy theory label into the life experience I’ve had with the CIA and peace groups.

Learn in Japan 9-5-15

This trip to Hiroshima to be featured speaker at a conference there was a wonderful experience

Nader Yale Data 5-24-15

Meeting Ralph Nader in person at his conference and later going to a Yale Law conference and back home to UW Madison Big Data group in the Discovery Center there were all amazing.

Reputation 8-24-14

This contrasts the high reputation I had in Eugene Oregon with the struggles for recognition in my home town of Madison Wisconsin.  West Coast versus Midwest.

Global Citizen 6-28-14

My application for Global Citizen came up short, but was encouraged to try again next year.

How I Did It 6-21-14

This is the tale of how I pieced together some lesser known work into one spectacular theory.

Wargamer to Dr Peace 5-25-14

This is about the evolution from wargamer to peace activist in the seventies and beyond.

Nashville 5-24-15

Many would expect conservative part of the country business professors to be hostile to the Peace Economics message, but Empire Economics won a Presentation Excellence Award thanks to their vote.

Politician 5-14-14

This is where I learned my social science, on the streets and coffee shops of Eugene, Oregon.  I left the state on a first name basis with every statewide office holder of either party.  I passed redistricting and venture capital changes in Salem Oregon, and wrote the state application for Delegate Selection to the Democratic National Convention of 1984.

Doctorate 5-9-14

This took a second try twenty years later to finally get my doctorate.  Finally my work would be taken seriously.

Wargames 4-5-14

This introduced me to Gary Gygax in wargaming from 1964 to 1974.  Gygax later created the “Dungeons and Dragons” role playing craze beginning in 1974. Gary taught me imagination.

PE First Course 3-18-14

This took advantage of the Innovative Education program at the University of Oregon in 1987.  Peace Economics was taught for three straight years going from 2 credits to 3 credits to graduate level credit.

PE First Book 3-14-14

I self published and copyrighted “Peace Economics” in 1986, and it became an overnight sensation in Eugene Oregon.

How PE Starts 3-8-14

This all started with a brochure at a Fellowship of Reconciliation meeting in the famous Dorothy Patch house in Salem Oregon in March 1983.  I was in the second of three Oregon Legislative Sessions at the time.

Grandpa Markham 3-1-14

This shows the roots I came from, with my middle name from my Horicon Marsh grandpa, lawyer, politician, and poet.

Numbers Words 1-30-14

This is the struggle of my life, from math wizard to eventually scientist and written author.

Dr Robert Reuschlein 10-10-13

This was the puffery of my introduction to the ExpertClick world.

Link for text of these releases:

https://www.academia.edu/31102462/BIOGRAPHY_for_Nobel_Peace_Prize_2013-2017_23_p

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Peace Research Scientist

Introduction

It’s that time of year before the February 1st deadline for nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Last year I received at least two known nominations and that was enough to trigger a full review of my press releases and active consideration by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.  One member, the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, did the in depth checking out of my candidacy after I had sent in my most recent video.  This year I’m looking for volume of nominations, all social science professors and members of national assemblies are eligible to make that nomination and may submit nominations to be kept confidential for fifty years, or send me a copy to be kept confidential or free to share as you see fit.  The purpose of this release is to encourage such nominations, and be given some reasons to nominate me.  To nominate by simple email see http://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/.  Thank you in advance.

Accomplishments 2016

My foremost accomplishment of the year was of course the nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize January 24 and February 1.  On August 24th I was awarded a “Special Recognition Award” by the West Suburban Faith Based Peace Coalition of the Chicago area.  My academic career took off with two entries in the “SAGE Encyclopedia of War, Social Science Edition” by Paul Joseph.  Since that October release, my usual 10% downloads per visitor on Academia.edu went up to 70% for the “Political Economy of War” entry and 30% for the “Military Keynesianism” entry.  My usual 25% foreign and 75% United States viewings on Academia went up to 62% foreign and 38% United States and has stayed at that new high level of international interest and recognition.  Just a couple months ago I upgraded my reports on Academia and found out that I’ve been in their top 1% on a twelve month basis.  Thanks to a Certification of my “Military Keynesianism” article by an Economic Professor and former Finance Minister of Nigeria with a million views on his website, I am now ranked as an author on Academia.  The upward spiral is beginning to go exponential.  On January 14th I presented the paper “Goal of the Terrorists:  Raise the Cost to Society” explaining how economically and socially corrupting high military spending is to a society.

Lifetime Accomplishments for Nobel Peace Prize

1)         The greatest “reduction of armies” (from Nobel’s Will) ever should occur when my work on military spending and the economy becomes the new standard for economics.  This is just a matter of time.  Every test I can think of shows extremely high statistical correlations proving military spending is lost capital investment or lost manufacturing productivity growth or essentially deadweight on the economy with no growth potential.  Put another way, the stimulative value of military spending in the economy is best modeled as zero.  In my sixty year model of United States manufacturing productivity that modeling produces an essentially perfect fit of R=.999.  This also explains how the regional positive correlation with military spending shows it to borrow growth from productive regions during military buildups and return growth to productive regions when there is reduced military spending.  Borrowing and lending economic growth among the regions is not economic growth, it is redistribution of growth.  Put another way, manufacturing shrinks during military buildups and expands during military reductions.  Details:  https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

2)         The first point leads to the second point, that the best long term way for a nation or alliance to defend is to keep military spending low, relying on economic growth to improve defense capability steadily over time.  Leading with economic growth rather than military spending is much stronger in the long run.  One of the keynote speakers at the Telos conference on “Asymmetric Warfare” in New York, Steve Metz, makes exactly that point that the military needs to use commercial products that have outpaced the pentagon, in the future.  Before going to a perpetual high level of military spending after World War II, America used to let the civilian technology go first.   America civilians pioneered in airplanes and automobile mass production preceding the tanks and planes of the World War.  That is the winning way of the founding figures like George Washington.  That peacetime low military first way won wars consistently from 1776 to 1945.  Since then, American wars have all been problematic.  Details:

https://www.academia.edu/4475604/DEFENSE_STRATEGY_Chapter_Peace_Economics_7_p._1986

3)         The first point leads to the domestic consequences third point.  My finding that G7 countries had crime and murder rates proportional to their military spending rate is the keystone of declining empire theory.  Yoko Ono had pointed out on the anniversary that 1.2 million people have been murdered in America since John Lennon was murdered December 8, 1980.  Imagine if the military spending rate had been cut in half that whole time, and 600,000 murders had been avoided.  Oh wait, that actually happened after the Cold War ended, and murder rates were and have been cut in half since then.  And the criminologists don’t have a clue why.  That is more than the souls lost in Columbia in that multi-decade long conflict recently arriving at peace, thanks to the Nobel Prize winner from that country last year.  That alone is an excellent reason to award the Peace Prize based on this research.  Details: https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

4)         The fourth point on global warming is a direct spin-off from the American sixty year model of the economy based on manufacturing productivity.  The 54 year cycle is a direct result of the unequal evaporation rates over ocean compared to land.  The three years of research from 1988 to 1991 lead to a combined theory of climate change, economic change, and periodic wars.  Later Hurricane Sandy hitting New York in October 2012 lead to my trying the 55 year moving average on the then 160 year global warming record.  Low and behold, that resulted in exact fits in the 1910 to 1973 one degree Fahrenheit per century period, and the post 1973 two degrees Fahrenheit per century period we are now in.  Projection suggests the next upward increase will be when the 2025 cycle begins the process of land heating up first before ocean regulates the land second in the 54 year cycle.  To predict wars is the first step in preventing wars.  Details:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Weather Wealth And Wars

Although this release is named after my Radio For Peace International course, it is a collection of my latest press releases that pertain to the Environmental Long Cycle that started with Nicolai Kondratiev’s basic work on long economic cycles in 1926.  I was able to connect the three cycles of climate, economics, and wars into one great theory.  Here are brief summaries of 25 releases from my press release campaign of the last three and a half years:

Evaporation Changes the World 7-19-14

This is my most popular press release in this series, broadly discussing the land ocean earth system and the human effects of warming that slows the economy.

San Francisco Earthquake Predicted 8-26-14

This one had a significant ongoing afterlife because of the link to the famous San Francisco earthquake of 1906 and the Bay Bridge disaster of  the 1989 World Series.  Hurricane Sandy and major volcanoes are also mentioned in this release.  The military buildup of 2008 also had a direct role in the 2008 Great Recession.

Land Ocean 54 Year Cycle 7-30-16

This one looks at the frame of the interaction between land and ocean being the crucial driver of the long cycle.  The land overheats in the first phase of the cycle and the ocean brings the land back to normal in the last phase of the cycle.

History Repeats, 1852, 2014, 3-20-14

This is a deeper discussion of the war cycle than just focusing on the major wars.  Particularly focused on the early Cold War period of the last complete war cycle, important to assess the current situation as we approach the 2025 major war period.

Egypt-Britain Climate Change 1-24-14

This is a 3000 year approach to the rise and fall of civilizations as the temperature in the Western Civilization area starts cold with Egypt, then warms to 200AD where Rome peaks, cools to 450AD when Rome collapses, warms again to 987AD when the Vikings peak, cools again to 1580AD when Spain and Portugal peak, and currently is warming again since as Britain has the industrial revolution after 1750, but has not reached the peaks of 1000 years ago or 1800 years ago, yet, but is getting close.

Climate Economics: Much More than Costs & Disasters 12-3-13

This takes a close look at the human effects of heating from several big picture points of view.  First the direct human impact, then the geographic impact, then the impact over time, then the impact on stock markets comparing the positive cold half of the year to the negative warm half.

10 Big Evaporation Impacts 9-22-14

Many different impacts are covered here, showing the diversity of the impacts.  Forests, deserts, and sweating are all covered here, among many others.

10 Ways Heat Affects People 10-8-14

Many different impacts are covered here, showing the diversity of the impacts.  A collage of human, economic, and civilization impacts are shared with colorful anecdotes.  Four different links to more information are included at the end

War Cycle, 54 Years Long 11-16-14

Wealth, economic changes, and peck order drive the basic cycle.  Age of presidents has a role to play.  Political parties, anomalies, and what to look for in the future are all here.

Ukraine, Crimea, History, Context 3-4-14

Is this 1856 or 1956 is the first paragraphs question.  Then the thousand year record is discussed with a more specific focus on the last two hundred years.  Lastly the focus looks at fifty years ago compared to now.

Baltimore Riot the New Watts 5-2-15

The riots of the sixties are compared to the modern movement for black rights.  Then Ferguson and Baltimore are looked at specifically in these more militarized times of policing.

Why 54 Year Earth Cycle Matters 8-3-14

Why should we care about the cycle, how does it impact us today?  This big question leads to several big answers showing the relevance of the 54 year cycle to all of us today.

Civil Rights Cycle 3-29-14

The daughter of the main plaintiff in Brown v. Board of Education, the landmark Supreme Court decision at the dawn of the modern Civil Rights movements of the fifties and sixties, spoke at Edgewood College in Madison.  Turns out, the 1849, 1896, 1954, 2008 major events she discussed follow a 54 year cycle pattern for black Civil Rights.

How I Found the Earth Cycle 3-21-14

This describes events of my personal journey of discovery of the 54 year cycle.  It started with a drought and a discussion with a friend.  Trends 90 was a big help along with several other data sets and writings.  Real discovery takes lots of statistical analysis in a hands on way.

War and Violence Period Cycle 11-29-15

This merges discussion about crime and war into a complex composite theory of the times.  Militarization and empire play a big role in both areas.

Chile Volcano Eruption Cycle 4-24-15

This looks at the Andes Mountains and the volcano in Chile that erupted in 1857, 1961, and 2014, pretty good fits for the 54 year cycle.  Then this event is judged against others in the modern record.

Are Chile and Nepal Related? 4-28-15

This looks at a plausible relationship to two events 180 degrees apart on the Earth that may be related in some way, just days apart.

15 Year Earth Warming Pause 4-12-14

The IPPC panel on climate change was stumped by the difficulty of explaining how global warming has failed to hit a new high in the last 15 years after 1998.  The Reuschlein theory easily explains the event.

Hurricane Flood Climate Cycle 2-7-14

Hurricanes and Typhoons are the main focus of this broader discussion of events like Hurricane Sandy hitting New York and Hurricane Katrina hitting New Orleans.

Major Wars Happen in Cold Years 12-19-13

This looks at plausible links with very cold years and the start of wars.  How does cold influence the decisions of leaders and people?  A mystery that has some answers and some questions.

Kondratiev Economic Cycle Origins 2-9-14

How Nicolai Kondratiev, Klyashtorin and others furthered the cause of identifying the 54 year cycle.  Pulling the threads together by Reuschlein.

Crazy Cold Winter Weather 2-14-14

The Polar Vortex was in the news, seemingly without any rhyme or reason to it.  Actually Reuschlein noticed this pattern of cold winters in a time of hot years in North America, and has plausible explanations for the pattern.

54 Year Cycle is Crucial 2-25-14

This is a general discussion about the accuracy of the cycle.  How can a real scientist ignore accuracy and continue the old theories of inaccuracy based on lousy interpretations.  Average error of 1.5 years on 56 modern major events is about 95% accuracy for the 54 year cycle.

Philippines Typhoon History 11-12-13

These last two releases show that the major typhoon in history, Haiyan, follow 54 years after the major typhoon year of 1959.  Several different sources are discussed with disclaimers for less accurate events.

Typhoon Haiyan Repeats 54 Year Cycle 1959-2013, 11-11-13

This first press release on the expertclick.com site was very brief, followed up one day later.

The full texts of all of these releases are either available for the release dates after title shown on bobreuschlein.wordpress.com where you can pick a month on the archive on the right; Expertclick.com has another continuous list of titles under my name;

best as a complete bundle of 25 pages on academia.edu/RobertReuschlein,

you need to click “read” to scroll down the 25 pages for free on academia.edu:

https://www.academia.edu/s/cd6a6e1b44/weather-wealth-and-wars-2013-2016-25-p

Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016, Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

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