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Archive for the month “January, 2014”

Climate Change for 3000 Years

Egypt-Britain Climate Change

James Burke of Australia reported how temperature changes in the Mediterranean region over the last 3000 years regularly changed the prevailing civilizations.  At the 45 degree latitude of Rome, for instance, the volatility of the global temperature change may be multiplied by about four.  So his report that the region varied from plus eight to minus eight degrees Fahrenheit from the long term average is not unrealistic for that far North.  In 1200 BC the region was minus eight degrees Fahrenheit, at the height of Egypt.  It slowly evolved higher to a peak of plus eight at 200 AD, the peak of the Roman Empire.  Cairo is 33 degrees North, Athens 41 degrees, and Rome at 45 degrees so as the ideal temperature zone moved steadily North dominance went from Egypt to Greece to Rome.

Rome collapses as the temperature hits minus seven around 450AD and the Barbarians are driven out of Northern Eurasia into the warmer climate of the Roman Empire.  The next warming is at plus eight around 1000 AD and the Vikings dominate Northern Europe, Iceland, Greenland, and Vinland.  They farmed Greenland until 1408 AD, making a mockery of the so-called Mann hockey curve which claims that time was colder than the present uninhabited Greenland.

The cooling bottoms in 1580 AD as the dominant powers became the Southern European nations of Spain and Portugal exploring and taking over Latin America.  The warming hits plus four at 1750 as three decades of great crop growing weather creates the industrial revolution in Britain.  Today we are plus six.  One climate change model shows with current carbon dioxide growth the planetary temperature levels off in the twenty-second century.

https://www.academia.edu/4485586/CIVILIZATION_Climate_8p._RE_1999

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein

www.realeconomy.com,

bobreuschlein@gmail.com

608-230-6640

Key: Manufacturing Midwest

General theory link:
https://www.academia.edu/4108656/PEACE_ECONOMICS_booklet_11_charts_24p._2011          Manufacturing is the key to economic growth, don’t be fooled by the Cassandra’s of the so-called knowledge based economy.  Those who are trying to substitute a service sector economy for a manufacturing based economy should look to Germany to see their folly.  These are the multitudes that have switched from engineering majors to finance majors to the national detriment.  With the finance sector ballooning to almost ten times its share of the economic profits forty years ago, they have sold out the Inland industrial Midwest for the Coastal military monetary economy.  Problem is, a military monetary economy is living off the largesse of the rest of us.  Parasites is the less polite word.  The coastal areas of America have colonized the Industrial Heartland and exploited it like they once exploited the Native Americans, then exploited the Latin Americans, then exploited the world, now exploiting the Midwest.

Midwest theory link:

https://www.academia.edu/5740273/MIDWEST_and_the_Military_3_pages_2005

Withdrawing engineers, scientists, and capital from the “golden goose” of manufacturing has radically changed the whole country.  The first big shake up was with the rapid recovery of Germany and Japan in the fifties.  Then the loss of the steel industry in the sixties.  Then the shake up of the auto industry of the seventies oil crisis and taking the dollar off the gold standard.  Then the assault on unions begun in the eighties.  Then a temporary reprieve with the end of the Cold War in the nineties.  Then the invention of the war on terror with all the big lies about September 11th.  Because while America was going through all these transformations, the military was also constantly reframing its mission so that it too could survive the changes.  The service sector grew to take up the vacuum of the declining industrial base, and the financial sector moved in to dominate the world and expand its share of the American economy tenfold.  Marx would laugh at us, saying I told you so.  The bi-coastal economy parasites, the military and the monetary, have taken hold like a fourth stage cancer.

Stages of empire link:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

So what is the solution?  The solution is to solidify the presidential swing states of the Midwest against the cancer.  Elizabeth Warren seems to have a clue here.  She knows the too big to fail and to big to control bankers are the number one problem.  But she, like most of you, fails to see the real destruction emanating from the prime cause that put the bankers into a position of dominance.  And that, my friends, is the military industrial complex Eisenhower warned us about.  Because the failure is to see that the tentacles of all the problems emanate from that one great institution.  That is why I started with a focus on military spending and the economy that kept growing into an empire focus.  First I noticed that all elected Cold War presidents came from high military spending states.  Then I noticed that half of all Cold War expenses represented a transfer of wealth from the Rustbelt to the Sunbelt.  These are the first dominoes leading to all the other troubles we try to take on one by one in isolation.  Then I noticed that society’s social fraying was all related to the economic decay caused by the military drain on key resources.  Empire theory was born.

Social decay of empire link:

https://www.academia.edu/4044446/EMPIRE_ECONOMICS_Peer_Review_AWARD_Won_12ppt.2p._2013

And all we do goes around in endless circles, like a dog chasing its tail, because we do not see the primacy of the first dominos in an endlessly diverse chain, like a Japanese art object.  And this is all just a poetic way of saying “what the math convinces me” must be the case.  And that is why some think I’m arrogant, because I recognize the tight precision of the mathematical truth.  Are any of you electrical engineers?  I may be the only one in the Peace and Justice Studies Association, and few of the press are engineers either.

Internal mathematical integrity link:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_High_Accuracy_13_1_p._2013

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein www.realeconomy.com, bobreuschlein@gmail.com

608-230-6640

Trade or Military, Which Loses More Jobs?

Trade Treaties vs. Military Buildups

The GATT, WTO and NAFTA were Bush negotiated and Clinton rubber stamped in 1993.  Yet America still had a net gain from manufacturing jobs in the nineties thanks to the peace dividend from the Cold War, when 3.5% of the economy was restored to useful purposes in the fifteen years between 1984 and 1999.  Then Clinton started a two year long low military buildup creating the 2001 recession.

With Bush responsible for 80% of the Clinton-Bush military buildup, the American economy slumped decisively in the Bush decade.

The 2.8 million manufacturing jobs lost in the 24 months after 9-11-01 were 60% from the military buildup and only 40% from trade treaties.  That’s right, the military buildup cost 1.7 million jobs and the trade treaties only 1 million jobs.  Once again the empire theory trumps the trade theory.  The military buildup boosted real estate prices in the boom areas, as the rest of the manufacturing economy imploded, just like in the Reagan eighties.  For both Reagan and Bush, the military buildups distorted the real estate markets and lead to financial collapses by the end of each decade.

See 3 page detailed explanation here:

https://www.academia.edu/5740273/MIDWEST_and_the_Military_3_pages_2005

With an unregulated real estate financial structure in place, Bush had the 2007 Iraq surge of $70 billion push the economy over the cliff.  Beginning with the first surge troop deployments in July 2007, the unemployment rate steadily worsened over the next two years as the financial crisis deepened.

The poor recovery since the 2009 recession is in part due to the lack of reduction in military spending.  Larry Summers gave bad advice to Barack Obama to use the Afghanistan military buildup as a jobs program.  Clinton’s Economic Advisor and Nobel Laureate Joe Stiglitz, knew better as indicated in his book.

See slides 14 and 15 here:

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt_3p._2014

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein www.realeconomy.com, bobreuschlein@gmail.com

608-230-6640

Mini Study in Peace Economics

Thanks to the Peace and Justice Studies Association, views on academia.edu/RobertReuschlein website have just exploded the last 45 days.  You finally noticed me with “Crime and the Military” December 5th and kept following for ten commentaries of Peace Economics.  The thirty day total of documentary views went from 19 on November 30th to 222 on January 13th.

See Graph on Link:  https://www.academia.edu/5710604/PEACE_ECONOMICS_MOVEMENT_year_2013

Since October I have had views from 40 countries and 34 states.  Press views have averaged over 100 per press release, with “Climate and the Economy” most popular going over 200 but almost ignored by the Peace Association with only 14 views, while the Class and Curriculum were very popular with the academics but not the press.  At one point five releases correlated about .99 between press and academics.  “Peace Economics or Peace Studies?” was most popular for the Peace and Justice Studies with 45 document views and 30 profile views.

Methodology:  using expertclick.com to send email press releases to 7000 press people, over 1600 have viewed those releases since the first one October 10th.  Locally, this was combined with weekly two minute commentaries on WORT radio in Madison, Wisconsin since September.  Then PJSA was the third part of the educational campaign.  The fourth part was my email list of 178.

Results:  the academia.edu results show 403 viewings since October 7th, 329 (80%) in the last 45 days.  Worldwide, 70% of viewings were from the United States and 30% from the rest of the world.  Climate Cycle (considered green or environmental) postings were three times more popular in the rest of the world than in the United States.  In the United States, about 25% of the views came from locals in Wisconsin and Rockford, IL.  12% were rural with no city listed.

Of the remaining 63% from the United States, I divided them into the high military spending states and the low military spending states, each collectively having about 50% of the United States population.  66% came from military states and 34% from low military states.  This two to one ratio has shown up many times in many of my studies.  I will explain this in the future.

Thank you for letting me teach you a little Peace Economics, as I have formulated it.  It has been a breath taking journey for me, I hope it’s that way for you, too.

Peace Economics in a one page Summary:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_High_Accuracy_13_1_p._2013

https://www.academia.edu/5710604/PEACE_ECONOMICS_MOVEMENT_year_2013

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein, http://www.realeconomy.com

Favorite Peace Songs

With Martin Luther King’s birthday coming up it’s a good time to think of favorite peace songs.  He was the champion against the three great evils of racism, materialism, and militarism.  He died exactly one year to the day after giving a major antiwar speech.

My personal favorite is “When the Empire Falls” played at the end of the movie “The American Ruling Class”.  Final Lyrics:

As hellfire rains from the predator, Empire falls.

And the empty lies meant to justify Will echo through the halls.

We won’t stand by and just let it burn, We can stand tall

And we’ll stop the war and we’ll help the poor, When the empire falls.

And the faceless corporations will be taking a vacation

‘Cause the world is free for democracy When the empire falls.

Then there is Gil Scott-Heron’s “Work for Peace” with the famous refrain:

“The military and the monetary, they get together when they think its necessary.”

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/01/02/banking-and-the-military/

Lastly comes “Abraham Martin and John” put together after that terrible Spring when both Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy were gunned down.  The refrain goes:

He freed a lot of people,

But it seems the good they die young.

I just looked around and he’s gone.

 

And the final passage:

Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?

Can you tell me where he’s gone?

I thought I saw him walkin’ up over the hill,

With Abraham, Martin and John.

 

For Lyrics:

https://www.academia.edu/5592279/PEACE_SONGS_Favorite

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,

www.realeconomy.com, 608-230-6640, bobreuschlein@gmail.com

For audio of this message including some singing:
http://www.wortfm.org/wednesday-january-22-2014/

Peace Economics, Peace Studies?

https://www.academia.edu/5645092/Peace_Economics_vs._Peace_Studies_a_comparison_1p._2014

The problem I have with mainstream peace and conflict resolutions programs is the almost exclusive emphasis, when it comes to war or peace, on mediation and peace making.  The problem with that is that it assumes an approach of damage control after the fact of a conflict.  I would prefer to prevent conflicts in the first place.  Most of those in peace studies would agree with me, let’s prevent conflict in the first place.

I welcome the structural violence debate, but I worry about other means of preventing conflicts.  Many people assume that we must “be the peace we want to see”.  Modeling is a good thing.  But we already have many models in the world worth following.  And we still have wars.

I come from the position that we will always have wars if we perpetuate the institutions of war.  The military industrial complex has great creativity in finding ways to justify its existence.  Leaders have all the incentive to go to war and perhaps become a great leader in the minds of followers for generations to come.

Pretexts for almost any war usually turn out to be phony in hindsight, some more obviously than others.  I believe the best way to limit war is to limit the military budget, and that most other approaches are marginal at best.  Those who have the foresight to limit their military are usually richly rewarded in the long run.  The list of examples is very long.  It seems that most all great powers start out this way.  That is the main goal of peace economics, to show the way to success.  To prove that the peacemakers truly do inherit the earth.  Then the next step will be to stop the new breed of leading nations from repeating the arrogance of the old order.  Comparison link enclosed:

https://www.academia.edu/5645092/Peace_Economics_vs._Peace_Studies_a_comparison_1p._2014

Dr. Peace, http://www.realeconomy.com

Misguided Liberal, Conservative

Conservatives continue to believe ALL government is an economic problem, not recognizing the qualitative difference the loss of resources in military spending makes.  Health care, Education and Social Insurance do not destroy the economy.  Note that the post office did not fail to deliver Christmas presents on time, only the private sector failed.   Draining the manufacturing sector of key resources is the crucial mistake empires make.  It does not work to think defensively about the world wasting vast resources on short term security.  Societies need to remain on the offensive producing new products the world wants and needs.

Liberals need to understand two things:

1)  America is fraying at the edges compared to other developed societies because we live in a declining empire society.  Empire creates inequality, inequality has only half the accuracy of military spending explaining America’s numerous failings relative to other advanced societies.

2) Education is a wonderful thing for individuals and can be useful to whole societies if used appropriately.  The English speaking countries of Canada, Britain, and the United States have long devoted higher levels of resources to education than other developed countries.  Yet the G7 correlation between education and economic growth is poor.  The much stronger correlation is negative with military spending.  Education can help us swim upstream, but the powerful current of the military drain is pulling us closer and closer to the waterfall’s edge.  These points are covered in the third from last slide on my Accurate Economic Model powerpoint:

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt_3p._2014

Audio (Jan15, bottom of page): http://www.wortfm.org/wednesday-january-15-2014/

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,

http://www.realeconomy.com

608-230-6640

bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Banking and the Military

The refrain of Gil Scott-Heron’s song “Work For Peace” says over and over again, “the military and the monetary, the military and the monetary, they get together when they think its necessary”.

This was so true long ago that the classic book on the military industrial complex, “The Iron Triangle” by Gordon Adams in 1981, shows how truly interconnected the two industries were.  While Michael Useem’s book the “Inner Circle” shows that corporate interlocks average about 15%, Gordon Adams goes on to show that 15% pertains to the corporate interlocks just between the big banks and the big defense contractors.  Further, a corporation like Citibank gets 60% of its profits from overseas and has 40% of its directors on defense boards also.  Talk about freeloading, let the Marines insure your profits.

Now its worse than ever.  American corporate profits went from 7% to 12% of GDP in the last forty years.  Financial sector corporate profits went from 6% to 30% of all corporate profits.  Doing the math, Financial profits GDP has gone from 0.4% to 3.6% of the entire economy, a nine fold increase.

Bad as is was back then, its almost ten times as bad today.  No wonder Barack Obama let Wall Street fund his first campaign and pick Timothy Geithner, with his Goldman Sachs connections, as treasury secretary.  When the president ordered the breakup of Citibank, Geithner wouldn’t let him do it.  See the second to the last slide on my Accurate Economic Model paper on my academic website:

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt_3p._2014

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
http://www.realeconomy.com
608-230-6640

bobreuschlein@gmail.com

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