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Archive for the month “April, 2015”

Are Chile and Nepal Related?

OVERVIEW

With only three days separating the natural events in Chile and Nepal at very close to direct opposite sides of the globe, there could be a connection between these events. The 6000 evacuated in Chile due to the volcano somewhat compares to the 4000 deaths in Nepal due to the earthquake, at least in number if not in severity. One town in Chile was buried in gray ash, covered by a gray desert. Chile’s Calbuco volcano covered the town of Ensenada, population 1500. One website that calculates distances between cities lists five places in Chile as the farthest away from Katmandu, Nepal, all of them over 11,000 miles. 12,440 miles is half way around the earth. My first press release was found by someone with the search term “is something bigger happening from the Chile volcano?”

NATURE OF THE EARTH

The surface crust of the Earth is as thin as the skin on an apple, proportionately. It rests on a sea of molten magma. Think of a waterbed and how it easily adjusts to changing pressures. Yet the crust is rigid, so it is all connected, and the rigidity is broken on occasion by adjustments in the tectonic plates resulting in volcanoes and earthquakes. We know that opposite ends of the earth are connected. That’s why the centrifugal force of the spinning earth results in the circumference of the earth being wider at the equator and narrower at the poles. This shape, caused by the flattening at the poles, is called an oblate spheroid. The circumference of the earth is 24, 902 miles on the equator and 24,860 at the poles. That small difference is 42 miles, seven times the distance of the tallest mountain to the surface of the earth. That difference of 42 miles is eight times the distance to the bottom of the deepest part of the ocean. When you throw a pebble into a lake, ripples go out in larger and larger circles. So the shattering of the earth’s crust in one area will send out ripples in all directions. Those ripples will all meet again in the opposite side of the earth and concentrate there somewhat, so the idea that an event in Chile impacts an event in Nepal is quite plausible on this fragile layer of crust on the earth.

TIME AND DISTANCE

Looking at one website that calculates distances from one part of the world to another, it lists five locations as the locations farthest away from Katmandu, Nepal, and all five of those locations are in Chile, including several locations that bracket the area around the Calbuco volcano that erupted on Wednesday, Earth Day. Thus the earthquake three days later in Nepal could be related in part to the volcanic eruption three days before. When the volcano Krakatoa erupted in 1883, it took three days and three passes around the earth for the volcanic atmospheric debris cloud to cover the earth. An area 50 miles around the Krakatoa volcano was so covered with the ash cloud that sunlight was not seen for two and a half days. So a three day interval is comparable to similar historic natural events. Massive blizzards like the blizzard of 1888 and 1993 were three day events. So three day intervals are very common for massive natural events.

HUGE FOREIGN RESPONSE

The reaction to my Chile Volcano press release has been much stronger overseas. Whereas academia is usually 25% foreign, this time it was 70% foreign. Likewise with wordpress, where the normal 10% foreign response increased to 40%. Global warming and foreign news are lesser issues in the United States. The global warming cycle phase we are in now is eradic, with the ocean slowly pulling the overheated land down to its level. This year is in the middle of the oceanic caused slowing down of global warming, so anything can happen.

Full Short Story of the Earth Weather Cycle:
https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy and/or Peace Economics free pdf on request by members of the press)

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Chile Volcano Eruption Cycle

CNN reported yesterday the double eruption of the volcano Calbuco in Chile on Earth Day, April 22, 2015.  Headline: Reuschlein Earth Cycle confirmed on Earth Day.

The last three eruptions were in 1857, 1961, and 1972. In 54 year cycle time, that is an exact fit for the 1961 eruption 54 years ago and only 4 years off for the 1857 eruption 104 years before the 1961 eruption, when 108 years would be a perfect fit.

Looking at it another way, if the 1857 eruption was right on schedule, then the 1961 eruption would be 4 years early from the two cycle point of 1965 and the 1972 eruption would be 7 years late. This then would indicate that the 2015 eruption would be 4 years early from the three cycle point of 2019 and another eruption could be possible in 2026, 7 years late from that perspective.

Compared to War Cycle

The 54 year war cycle has had similar timings in the last two centuries. Usually a major war involves the two top economies of the time. But sometimes the major power goes first and the second major power goes second. For example, the 1808 date is suggested as the average date by history of the major conflict of that cycle. In 1803 the Napoleanic Wars start with France and Britain five years early, then the Americans go to war against Britain in 1812, four years late. At the time France was a much more significant power than the Americans, both taking on the British Empire. One cycle later, with 1862 the historic average expected date, the major power in Europe, Britain, goes to war with Russia in Crimea in 1856, six years early, and the second power, Prussia, goes to war with France eight years late. The American Civil War is the biggest of that time in 1861, one year early. The next cycle, with an expected war date of 1916, has Europe going to war in 1914, two years early, and America joining in 1917, one year late. The cycle after that, scheduled for 1970, has the number one power, America, going to war five years early in Vietnam 1965, and the number two power Soviet Russia going to war nine years late in Afghanistan in 1979. The possible major war of 1970 could have been the Sino Soviet border clashes of 1969 one year early between the two largest communist powers of the time. But the nuclear bomb on both sides of the Russia China conflict may have stopped the escalation of those border clashes. Other wise the American Civil War and the Communist Civil War clashes were an exact 108 years apart.

Compared to Other Natural Events

Natural events in America provide three clear examples of a split year double event being compared to a single event in another cycle time. The blizzard of 1888 was an epic event unmatched for the longest time when similar epic blizzards occurred in 1993 and 1996, three years early in the 1993 case and exactly on the double cycle 108 year mark in the 1996 case. But the blizzard of 1888 was on March 12-14 and the 1993 blizzard was also on March 12-14. Three years early, but a perfect match on days. The 1993 blizzard was the biggest since 1888. Then a bigger blizzard came a perfect 108 years later, but on the days of January 7-8.

The next natural event was the three biggest droughts of the twentieth century. They came on 1934, 1936, and 1988. Again the second thirties drought was the biggest, but the first was an exact fit 54 years before the 1988 drought, so the two biggest droughts of their respective cycles were 52 years apart, two years short of the perfect fit of 54 years.

The third event involves major floods of North America’s major river, the Mississippi. The 1938 flood was comparable to the 1993 flood 55 years later, one year late. Then another flood almost as big happened in 1995, 57 years after the 1938 flood.

Does the double eruption of Calbuco on the same day count as one event or two? I would say one event, since volcanoes often erupt multiple times in a single eruption event, although lesser and major eruptions can usually be separated. In this case, both eruptions are roughly the same magnitude, which is unusual.

Compare to this long list of long cycle events, natural, economic, and war:
https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy and/or Peace Economics free pdf on request by members of the press)
An archive of this yearlong press release campaign can be found at: https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/

Peace Economics Education

VISION

I was looking to follow a political career when I discovered an amazing inverse relationship between military spending and manufacturing productivity growth rates by Ruth Leger Sivard in 1981. In 1985, I noticed the world was overlooking this great work, so I investigated it extensively in dozens of frameworks and found nothing that significantly contradicted the basic finding. In fact, just the opposite, I found the relationship to work in many many different ways all of which tend to prove the relationship by showing the absence of contradictory findings. I began to share my findings by writing manuscripts and books. Then I tried teaching college classes, followed by monthly columns in a peace newsletter for nine years, followed by another university class, followed by a website and new book, followed by 9-11 and becoming a major part of the Madison Wisconsin peace movement for five years. Then I went back to school and got my doctorate, followed by dozens of conference presentations and founding PeaceFest and now blogging for the last two years. This has all been richly rewarding with many honors, but just like Ruth Leger Sivard, the world has not “caught fire” with these far reaching findings. I have extended the work into an explanation of empire and the related cause of the decline of empire, of which the Midwest economic crisis is a perfect example of how this can be shown to originate in prolonged high levels of national military spending. Yet the flaws in economic thinking lead to blaming all this on trade, ignoring the more significant cause of lost capital investment diverted to the military instead. That’s where the blogging comes in, trying to deepen the understanding of this profound new science so that everyone else can reach to my understanding of this condition, the socioeconomic decay of empire come home to roost. Trade is probably about half the story, not the whole story as many believe, probably including those who read this. I am still looking at many ways to raise the visibility of this vision. Along those lines, the utility of a new macro economic theory that represents a significant improvement on the outdated Keynesian and monetarist theories should be taken up by the investment and banking industries, but over caution and scepticism are the nature of today’s investment markets. Another key finding to share is the direct relationship among nations of the murder and crime rates being proportional to the military spending levels in a nation’s economy. Even though none of the current criminologists can explain the sudden drop in crime rates in the nineties, this finding would account for that drop due to the similar drop in military spending rates in the US economy. That is the peace dividend that some people think we did not get, that and the economic boom in the Clinton years. These are the priceless findings I need to share with the Toledo group, my award winning lecture on Empire Economics.

BACKGROUND

EACH OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS OF MASTERY WERE ESSENTIAL TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PEACE AND EMPIRE ECONOMICS

1) Math was my first mastery and love, in a four way tie for highest state math contest and developing math formula’s on my own before they were taught to me in school.
2) Wargaming my second mastery, introduced me to the future inventor of the Dungeons and Dragons craze. This lead to a mastery of World War Two history, reading dozens of books about various battles. I developed a knack for using the tools given to me in different ways. I held elected and appointed positions and the top rating as a wargamer in the largest club.
3) Science my third, I was the best in my college prep high school in math, math and science, art, and tied for the most trips to the head of the class on senior awards day. Physics gave me the insight into how to fix macroeconomics from the disastrous current condition.
4) Engineering my fourth, I asked for the toughest four year program at UW Madison, and graduated from the 3rd ranked nationally electrical engineering program in the top fourth of my class making four honor societies. Showing my versatility, I answered Industrial Engineering questions on my Professional Engineering exam, with a 95 out of 100 score.
5) Accounting my fifth, allowed me to organize and present numbers systematically and for the purposes of good presentation, with “present fairly” a part of the accounting ethical code.
6) Business my sixth, as an MBA CPA, as president of 11 stores for thirteen years, I learned production, marketing, quality control, budgeting, hiring, firing, and organizing. These skills were crucial as headquarters office manager of a governor’s race candidate.
7) Politics my seventh, as a participant in three state legislative sessions and five years in the peace movement after 9-11, these were the greatest learning experiences of my life. Skills also developed in many state platform conventions and political campaigns, including my own. I had 20% name familiarity in Eugene at the start of my last campaign.
8) Peace Economics my eighth, pleased the vice chair for research John Moseley of the University of Oregon and later taught in Bob O’Brien’s Sociology Department there. The award winning Eugene Register Guard newspaper loved my monthly letters to the editor.
Wrote three books, blogging to 42,000 views on Expertclick.com last two years.
Reached top 2% on academia.edu last December, 1842 views in last sixteen months. About fifty major presentations in my career, half since 2006, about 80% academic. I forecast economic collapse January 2007 at a local Martin Luther King party due to the surge military buildup of George Bush.
9) Global Warming my ninth. I served for two years on the statewide Interfaith Climate Change Campaign. My activism caught the attention of Radio For Peace International head Richard Schneider, who asked me to tape and put together the Weather, Wealth, and Wars class.

HOPE TO LEARN

I hope to learn how to adapt peace economics to the thinking of others in these areas. Listening is the key to understanding where the peace and justice community is located on the spectrum of peace education. How is peace education defined by the peace and justice community, what are the terminologies and what are the biases of this special community. Urban environments of cities less than one million are where I have lived most of my life, and when I have sought party offices, blacks were always a part of my coalition. I worked on both of Jesse Jackson’s campaigns, as canvassing coordinator for the Eugene Oregon county of Lane. I carried my precinct in 1984 and the whole county in 1988. Still Detroit is outside my experience and I hope to better appreciate the urban environment of larger cities.

CONTRIBUTE

I have always been a leader in questioning and offering statements related to any discussion. When I ran for county commissioner in 1980, I attended four hundred meetings the year before. I have kept up that pace throughout my life, a perpetual learner, so I am widely aware of many things in the public sector especially. I am always watching the news channels or C-SPAN or educational programs, I’m not much for prime time shows. I have excellent small group skills, once earning a certificate in small discussion group leading for divorced people where I lead such groups for several years. I have lobbied, I have campaigned, I have written letters to the editor, blogs, monthly columns, I have taught, and I’ve debated formally and informally for years. So I have many skills to draw from. Peace Economics and Global Warming Cycle offer many insights you just don’t get any where else. Of all my many presentations, Empire Economics is the best according to my peers. I would like to offer a workshop on that topic in particular. It is hugely relevant to the urban situation today.
APPLY
Rather than try to learn too much and then forget it all years from now, I hope to pick up a few good nuggets of wisdom from the gathering. It sounds like encounter groups I’ve been in in the past, and URPE, the Union of Radical Political Economists, uses the format you plan as well as a Ralph Nader meeting I hope to attend in May. Radio for Peace International has extended board meetings of a similar nature. I always find such experiences deep and powerful. This meeting should inform several of my blogs in the coming year I expect. Perhaps I will emulate the style in workshops of Peace Economics I’ve been thinking about for some time. The urban industrial Midwest is central to my work. I chose the Midwest as the area to study in my dissertation because it is the least militarized region suffering the major impacts of empire and the Cold War. The rust belt was drained in favor of the Sunbelt for many decades now. To take an up close and personal look at those impacts will be very important in my work. About half of the military budgets since World War Two represent a drain from the North and Midwest to the militarized Coastal and Southern states.

For an academic class on peace economics in your institution:
Cover Letter, Proof of Concept, Nine Areas of Mastery, Creating Model, 31 Class Sessions: https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy and/or Peace Economics free pdf on request by members of the press)
An archive of this yearlong press release campaign can be found at: https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/

Fear of the Great Unknown

OVERVIEW

A recent headline in the Wall Street Journal finds that America has become risk averse. The once bold Yankee ingenuity is now afraid of taking chances, taking big risks, and bold steps. This comes as the top 1% refuses to share the wealth with the 99% in the middle class since about 1973. Keeping the multitudes on such a short lease may be good for profits, but it certainly isn’t good for America. The American Dream that the next generation will do better than the current one is being sorely put to the test. When the middle class is put on a treadmill that spins faster and faster, less time is available for new ideas to work their way into the mix. Progress is stifled along with social mobility in the workplace. Instead of taking each person seriously and valuing their thoughts, we fall back on the dismissive medieval notions of that’s some particular person’s son or daughter, so how can they end up any better than their parents?

BARRIERS TO ACCEPTANCE

Some people hear you and are unimaginative and condescending and dismissive. Others listen intently, ask probing questions, and share there own stories in ways that perfectly match the teachable moment for instruction. But without any reinforcement, these concepts are left hanging out there unattached to the real world of the colleague. When they have heard the ideas several times they may finally begin to believe them. When they are presented new contexts to understand the ideas in, it helps triangulate the position of the ideas. When they start using the ideas in their own practice, real progress begins. But then they need reinforcement and correction to keep from stumbling over the “apparent” inconsistencies. I say “apparent” in quotes because in the decades of my work in this area the inconsistencies often disappear into understandings of the nuances of the concepts. When you start becoming conversant with the new ideas, corollaries start becoming easier and easier to recognize and accept. The main proposal is so clear that the leftover pieces of the puzzle start having obvious explanations among the older establishment type ideas.

REFLECTIONS

Getting my story out is a lot like the parable of the seeds in the bible.
This is a parable from the gospel of Matthew 13 New Living Translation (NLT): “Listen! A farmer went out to plant some seeds. 4 As he scattered them across his field, some seeds fell on a footpath, and the birds came and ate them. 5 Other seeds fell on shallow soil with underlying rock. The seeds sprouted quickly because the soil was shallow. 6 But the plants soon wilted under the hot sun, and since they didn’t have deep roots, they died. 7 Other seeds fell among thorns that grew up and choked out the tender plants. 8 Still other seeds fell on fertile soil, and they produced a crop that was thirty, sixty, and even a hundred times as much as had been planted! 9 Anyone with ears to hear should listen and understand.”

Paraphrasing the above:
A peace economics teacher went out to show and teach some ideas. Some ideas were absorbed by the students only to be forgotten when the next teacher said something contradictory. Others were welcomed and left a glow on the students face but were not remembered one year later. Other ideas were growing until other experts and teachers argued forcefully for other interpretations and approaches. Some learned their lessons well and starting seeing the new patterns in everything they watched and heard about for years to come.

THE UNKNOWN

When you step outside someone’s given world framework, you often get blank stares. If this someone imagines themselves well educated you can run up against snobbery and condescension. These were common occurrences for me until I joined MENSA. Then I found that some people are easy to talk to about wide ranging topics with mutual understanding. It just depends on who you are with. Even in academic circles you find these two types of people. Some people are afraid of venturing outside of their academic disciplines, departments, and institutions. They want to channel you in certain pre prescribed ways and put you into certain categories. Some people want to destroy your ego and replace it with their own ideas. Others are open to the adventurous souls who challenge everyone around them. In management theory these two mindsets are organic or mechanistic. Organic organizations are inherently more creative, mechanistic organizations are more soul destroying.

For an academic class on a new world of previously unknown or unrecognized macro topics that also redefines the old micro topics:  Cover Letter, Proof of Concept, Nine Areas of Mastery, Creating Model, 31 Class Sessions: https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy and/or Peace Economics free pdf on request by members of the press)
An archive of this yearlong press release campaign can be found here!

Macro vs Micro Analysis

OVERVIEW
The inability of the human mind to comprehend worlds greater than that which one is working on is why the micro world catches our attention so much easier than the macro world. We have the expression “they can’t see the forest for the trees.” That means that the details often obscure the big picture. We have trouble getting out of our own way to see the bigger picture. When a person has lots of training in a wide variety of key fields, then it is more possible to see the bigger picture, the macro picture. We describe people like this as people who have “vision.” Vision is often just the ability to see a bigger picture that explains otherwise hard to understand concepts and ideas.

BARRIERS
Sometimes too much training can keep someone from seeing the new realities and can even narrow one’s thinking to not recognize the broader concepts. Even when one does see a new concept from a broader point of view, it is easier to dismiss the new concept because it lies outside the normal framework of reference. Summarizing a broader point of view comes easily to some people and is scoffed at by other people. Even when presented with evidence, some people are reluctant to recognize new truths and resort to labeling and dismissing those who are bringing forth the new truths. Others are naturally curious and will try to understand the new truths and see if they apply in new circumstances or not. They are willing to give the new ideas enough credence to put them to the test. But all too often, people fall back into familiar patterns and forget or dismiss new truths. This is very easy to do if you have a silo vision of the world, not so easy to do if you are constantly experimenting and learning new ways of understanding the world.

REFLECTIONS
I have often employed the technique of looking for the common link between two things that otherwise appear to be contradictory. Maybe there is a grey area between what appears to be black or white. I let the thought stick in my mind that way until I run across something new that sheds light on the situation of the “apparent contradiction.” That can then become my “aha” moment of enlightenment.
We know from Planck’s Law in physics that sometimes you can get the position of a particle but not the speed. There is a tradeoff in measuring such things. This reminds me of a tradeoff I once discovered in an encounter group. At the end of the encounter group, each of us was asked to estimate who in the group grew the most and who in the group contributed the most. When I averaged the results, I learned an astonishing thing. Those that were perceived as contributing the most to the group had the least clear vision about who contributed the most or grew the most. Those that contributed the least had the clearest vision about who contributed the most or grew the most. So the silent ones had the best idea of who contributed the most or grew the most. The lesson I learned is that involvement distorts your perspective, while detachment clarifies your perspective. That is the value of meditation, prayer, and other techniques that give you the necessary detachment to see clearly new frameworks. That is perhaps the reason the “leaders” of the peace and justice studies organization take it upon themselves to attack me for trying to teach them new ways of thinking.

In my work macro trumps micro the following ways:
Micro looks at military spending as merely the spending of money.
Macro looks at military spending as lost economic growth potential and lost capital investment.
Micro looks at crime as a function of individual decisions and can’t explain the nineties crime drop.
Macro looks at crime and sees the direct relationship with military spending changes.
Micro sees the society fraying in the inevitable decline of an empire.
Macro sees the society shaped by the size of the military and sees growth potential from reduced military eventually reversing all negative trends.
Micro sees the greenhouse effect as the only significant global warming changer.
Macro sees the evaporation effect separating land from ocean creating a 54 year cycle.
Micro can’t explain the 15 year stall in global warming.
Macro sees the land ocean temperature gap stalling global warming for the 27 year half cycle from 1998 to 2025.
Micro sees conflict resolution.
Macro sees empire reduction.

For an academic class on the way out of micro into the new world of macro:
Cover Letter, Proof of Concept, Nine Areas of Mastery, Creating Model, 31 Class Sessions: https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy and/or Peace Economics free pdf on request by members of the press)
An archive of this yearlong press release campaign can be found at: https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/

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