Chile Volcano Eruption Cycle
CNN reported yesterday the double eruption of the volcano Calbuco in Chile on Earth Day, April 22, 2015. Headline: Reuschlein Earth Cycle confirmed on Earth Day.
The last three eruptions were in 1857, 1961, and 1972. In 54 year cycle time, that is an exact fit for the 1961 eruption 54 years ago and only 4 years off for the 1857 eruption 104 years before the 1961 eruption, when 108 years would be a perfect fit.
Looking at it another way, if the 1857 eruption was right on schedule, then the 1961 eruption would be 4 years early from the two cycle point of 1965 and the 1972 eruption would be 7 years late. This then would indicate that the 2015 eruption would be 4 years early from the three cycle point of 2019 and another eruption could be possible in 2026, 7 years late from that perspective.
Compared to War Cycle
The 54 year war cycle has had similar timings in the last two centuries. Usually a major war involves the two top economies of the time. But sometimes the major power goes first and the second major power goes second. For example, the 1808 date is suggested as the average date by history of the major conflict of that cycle. In 1803 the Napoleanic Wars start with France and Britain five years early, then the Americans go to war against Britain in 1812, four years late. At the time France was a much more significant power than the Americans, both taking on the British Empire. One cycle later, with 1862 the historic average expected date, the major power in Europe, Britain, goes to war with Russia in Crimea in 1856, six years early, and the second power, Prussia, goes to war with France eight years late. The American Civil War is the biggest of that time in 1861, one year early. The next cycle, with an expected war date of 1916, has Europe going to war in 1914, two years early, and America joining in 1917, one year late. The cycle after that, scheduled for 1970, has the number one power, America, going to war five years early in Vietnam 1965, and the number two power Soviet Russia going to war nine years late in Afghanistan in 1979. The possible major war of 1970 could have been the Sino Soviet border clashes of 1969 one year early between the two largest communist powers of the time. But the nuclear bomb on both sides of the Russia China conflict may have stopped the escalation of those border clashes. Other wise the American Civil War and the Communist Civil War clashes were an exact 108 years apart.
Compared to Other Natural Events
Natural events in America provide three clear examples of a split year double event being compared to a single event in another cycle time. The blizzard of 1888 was an epic event unmatched for the longest time when similar epic blizzards occurred in 1993 and 1996, three years early in the 1993 case and exactly on the double cycle 108 year mark in the 1996 case. But the blizzard of 1888 was on March 12-14 and the 1993 blizzard was also on March 12-14. Three years early, but a perfect match on days. The 1993 blizzard was the biggest since 1888. Then a bigger blizzard came a perfect 108 years later, but on the days of January 7-8.
The next natural event was the three biggest droughts of the twentieth century. They came on 1934, 1936, and 1988. Again the second thirties drought was the biggest, but the first was an exact fit 54 years before the 1988 drought, so the two biggest droughts of their respective cycles were 52 years apart, two years short of the perfect fit of 54 years.
The third event involves major floods of North America’s major river, the Mississippi. The 1938 flood was comparable to the 1993 flood 55 years later, one year late. Then another flood almost as big happened in 1995, 57 years after the 1938 flood.
Does the double eruption of Calbuco on the same day count as one event or two? I would say one event, since volcanoes often erupt multiple times in a single eruption event, although lesser and major eruptions can usually be separated. In this case, both eruptions are roughly the same magnitude, which is unusual.
Compare to this long list of long cycle events, natural, economic, and war:
Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.
Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute
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