Military Economics (1985-1989)
Peace Economics began when I got into politics and went to thousands of different meetings of all kinds of political and civic groups. That led to a brochure showing Ruth Sivard’s bar chart comparing military spending to growth: finding a strong underlying relationship in that data was next. Skepticism and lack of news about that relationship drove me to test it in every way possible, from international to various tests over time on various economies. That led to the modeling, using graphs and multiyear averaging’s to find the essence of the situation. That led to including the deficit, the 54 year cycle, the 9 year cycle, and special downwards adjustments for the Great Depression and the seventies Oil Crisis. That was enough to produce the book Peace Economics in April 1986. In April 1987 I taught my first class in Peace Economics. Regional modeling in 1987 showed the impact of military spending on the states in the Reagan military buildup. That required clumping the states into mini regions of about three or four states that had similar dynamics. My congressman Peter DeFazio provided the data through the Bi-Coastal Economy Report. Here is a link to the booklet about Peace Economics in my video: https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p.2011
Empire Economics (1986-1989)
Empire dynamics began with a conversation with my uncle Spencer Markham. Sure military spending was known to be a major cause of the internally caused decline of empires. But could all the related social effects of that decline come from that one cause, or did they arise independently? My intuition that military spending economics was the prime cause needed to be examined and tested, and that has taken decades to do well. Evidence for alternative theories did not look to be empirically supported. They usually emphasize that personal weaknesses lead to an empire’s decline. Which came first, the chicken or the egg, led me to see the military cause as primary. My own tests started with murder rates versus the military, then including crime. This was tested in three different decades with the same near perfect results, and I did little empirical testing until the Spirit Level (2010) book gave me extensive data to show the military primacy over their income inequality theory. Many fairly general observations easily came up to explain many details of how our society became the way it has over time. For the general idea try this link: https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay
Global Warming 54 Year Cycle (1988-1991)
Although the economic outline of this cycle was enough to create the 99.9% accurate sixty year model of the US manufacturing productivity model, the real work of understanding the cycle began with data from the 1988 US drought. NOAA graphed the period 1895-1988 for the temperature and precipitation, and careful analysis of these started the process of looking for the cause of the cycle. Using 16 data sets of various components of the Earth’s temperature and precipitation, I eventually figured out the sequence of events after three years study. Natural Global Warming was published in May 7, 1991, and the next month the eruption of Mt. Pinatuba, on June 16th confirmed my theory, according to one of my readers. Here is the general weather cycle concept: https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_7_p.
Starting with 43 events on my list in 1994, I now have 56 events confirming the climate, economic, and war cycle of 54 years. This link gives you that list: https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yearCycle
Maturation of the Theories
I did have some acclaim early on from 1985 to 1990, but interest in Peace Economics dropped off precipitously after the end of the Cold War. Everyone expected a big peace dividend and that the military industrial complex would just go away. Even the 1991 Gulf War was considered a mere blip in time and no one could imagine the War on Terror that greeted the 21st Century. Nils Petter Gledisch of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo asked me to submit an article and sent guidelines after I sent him a copy of Peace Economics in 1986. But I knew nothing about academic articles and let the opportunity pass. I had someone interested in publishing my book, but when I called back a while later, he was no longer working there and they would not tell me where he had gone. I gave many workshops in many places and sold a book or manuscript to one out of three in each audience. After teaching a college class in three straight academic years at the University of Oregon, I switched tactics to writing a monthly column for the Oregon PeaceWorker from 1989 to 1997. My day job was as a Certified Public Accountant, so when I taped my classes for Radio for Peace International in April to June 1997 I had to abandon the monthly column. In 1999 I put a new book out, Real Economy, and developed the matching website http://www.realeconomy.com. I began my doctorate in 2006 completed in 2009 studying peace studies programs in the American Midwest for my dissertation. Then I found ExpertClick.com and began weekly press releases since December 2013. My academic conference presentations reached about 100 including a banquet in my honor in March 2013, a Presentation Excellence Award in May 2013, and an amazing crowd reaction to my global warming theory at the World Future Society in July 2013. Last year I was featured speaker in Hiroshima on the seventieth anniversary month of August 2015, and invited on the INTESDA advisory board, peer reviewing other papers for that conference. This year at least two people nominated me for the Nobel Peace Prize by the February 1, 2016 deadline. That choice is finalized in early October and announced on October 11, 2016.
Nobel Peace Prize Update
Until the publication of my press release on Saturday 3-19-16, called Nobel Peace Prize Watch, I have not had any visits from Norway to my wordpress.com blog. That day and the next morning, Saturday and Sunday, now I have six. Three are the only ones so far this morning by 8:30am which is 2:30pm Norway time. Those three started in the generic “Home page/Archives”, then “Proof of Peace Economics” and “Nobel Peace Prize Watch.”
From Sweden, on both February 10 and 18th, the much more important Academia.edu website was visited to view the paper “POLITICAL Military Presidency,” which was promoted to my followers list. That is a good paper, but much more traditional and less path breaking that my economic model. The viewer from Ekero, Sweden, is a 45 minute commute from the Nobel Prize Museum.
The award for viewing my Economic Model goes to Brisbane, Australia. That was the only recent viewer of the 11 page section from my 1986 book “Peace Economics.” I consider that paper, excerpts from my book, the most significant achievement of all. That work is worthy of the Nobel Prizes in both Economics and Peace. That is the achievement that will put me in the history of science books someday. Yet the Norwegian Nobel Committee is not going there, nobody is going there, except Brisbane, Australia. Only Brisbane went there twice on Saturday 3-19-16 despite my providing links to that paper to hundreds of viewers of my press release that day. This is what I mean when I call society “numbers phobic.” My best work is with numbers, but without my analysis of those numbers and my endless following of the threads of logic that spring from those numbers, I would reach no one. That’s why this press release campaign started in October 2013 is so vital. Invent a new idea and the world does not beat a path to your door, unless you tell them about it. Some “stick in the mud” academics resent it, but recognition does not occur without promotion.
On March 21, 2016, before noon German time, someone from Germany looked at “To Hillary Clinton Critics.” This is unusual, but it is just across the river from Strasbourg where one member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee works. It is the only contact from Germany on my wordpress.com website this year.
Here is the 11 page heart of the real model that is the “Proof of Peace Economics”:
Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,
Real Economy Institute, Madison, Wisconsin
CONTACT: email@example.com 608-230-6640,