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Technical Proof Peace Economy

The link at the bottom of the page has six pages of the best statistical compilations for proof of the Peace Economics Theories.  Together they will give the reader a good empirical basis for Reuschlein’s Empire and Cycle Theories.  Military Spending is deadweight on the American economy, filling communities with jobs but giving very little back to the private sector economy, starving the manufacturing sector and regions based on manufacturing of key resources.  What we seem to be going through is the long slow collapse of a high military spending empire.  In fact, I often treat high military spending as the defining hallmark of empire.  Here are synopses of these five basic documents that define Peace Economics:

Defining Correlations of Peace Economics and Cycle Theory

Eight of these correlations are 0.99 or better, within 1% of a perfect 1.00, highly robust for international comparisons.  Ten define the economics of military spending and empire.  Three define the long term land ocean oscillation in temperatures known as the 54 year cycle.  Empire economics theory was relatively easy taking about six months to develop; the global warming cycle took about three years to develop.  Then it took about thirty years to communicate these paradigm shifting ideas to the rest of the world, still a work in progress.  Although I’ve outlined many corollaries along the way, uncertainties remain, and I could use a staff of ten.

Accurate Long Term Economic Model in 28 Steps

The development of the economic model was straight forward for me, just pursuing all the obvious angles until the job emerged.  The amazing part was how the final result just popped out after carefully using good judgment to estimate the parameters in advance.  The model substantiates the Kondratiev Wave, the Juglar Cycle, the lack of economic benefit of military spending (except as part of a deficit and with some rare research results compared to the research spending), and the short term benefit of deficit spending.  Military spending reduces capital investment and the manufacturing sector.

Evaporation Changes the World

Evaporation is the dominant use of solar radiation hitting the surface of the Earth.  Since water is required, evaporation is most intense over the ocean.  Hence lack of water leads to the desert’s high heat level.  Bodies of water help feed the clouds above.  Estimates using Steven Schneider’s figures (1983) suggest that land heats up as much as three times faster than ocean.  This is the driving force in the 54 year cycle.  The cycle divides into 27 years of warming as the land warms up and 27 years of cooling as the ocean brings the land back into equilibrium.   Understanding this cycle is hard work, but connecting the three cycles of weather, economics, and wars is even harder but I’ve developed good logic for those connections.

Kondratiev Pioneers the 54 Year Cycle

These 56 examples of the 54 year cycle take two pages to list.  They come in five major categories starting with weather and economics as clearly the first two.  Next comes the war cycle, the social upheaval cycle, and lastly, the strangest of all, the weather war cycle.  45% of the  results are an exact fit, overall the events are 1.32 years off the 54 year cycle, 97.5% accurate overall.  Together with the 55 year moving average fitting the last two segments 99.8% and 99.7% for R and 99.6% and 99.4% for R squared, the new theory ties together several different 54 year cycles and explains the difference between the ocean and land editions of the 54 year cycle in each 108 year cycle.  There are more droughts in the land led cycle and floods and blizzards in the ocean led cycle.

Ten Pathways to the Nobel Prize

Three Nobel Prizes should be awarded for all of my work, in Peace, Economics, and Physics.  Peace Economics starts with the nonproductive nature of military spending and leads to a brilliant sixty year model of US manufacturing productivity.  Because it includes a 54 year cycle, it was necessary to explain where the cycle comes from, and that was discovered in a three year investigation that started with the three major droughts of the twentieth century in the United States.  Working with 16 century and one half long data sets, the final piece came in the difference in annual temperature over time between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the planet Earth.  This lead to the 108 year cycle:  60 years with the Southern Hemisphere hotter and 48 years with the Northern Hemisphere hotter.  Hence every other 54 year cycle is slightly different.  Because the major ingredient in the economic model is military spending, empire theory becomes the easiest pathway to the Peace Prize, even though the global warming cycle clearly deserves the Physics Prize and the long term economic model clearly deserves the Economics Prize.  Unfortunately the gatekeepers of the Physics and Economics Prizes are probably both too narrow minded to award me their prizes, so the Peace Prize is the most politically possible to obtain.  The “reduction of armies” clause in Nobel’s Will is the best basis for the Peace Prize.

These key technical facts are all summarized here on these six pages: 

https://www.academia.edu/23034796/TECHNICAL_Peace_Economy 2014-2015

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read”

 

Paper about scientific revolutions and paradigm shifts:

https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2014/12/21/10-scientific-revolution-facts/

 

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace,

Real Economy Institute, Madison, Wisconsin

CONTACT: bobreuschlein@gmail.com 608-230-6640,

INFO: www.realeconomy.com

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One thought on “Technical Proof Peace Economy

  1. Thank you for sharing. It was so very insightful!

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