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Archive for the month “November, 2014”

Twelve Days of Empire

Twelve Days of Empire
On the first day of empire we said hip hurray, we had just defeated Germany and Japan.
On the second day of empire we started the Cold War, but Germany and Japan grew three times as fast.
On the third day of empire our president wanted peace, but we shot him in Dallas instead.
On the fourth day of empire we invaded Vietnam, but the locals were the stronger in the end.
On the fifth day of empire we went to the moon, but the next president resigned in disgrace.
On the sixth day of empire we had a massive tax cut, but the 1% kept all the gains for thirty years.
On the seventh day of empire the Cold War ended, but we attacked Iraq to keep the military going.
On the eighth day of empire peace made us prosperous, but we went back to the Bushes anyway.
On the ninth day of empire the president allowed 9-11, but we followed him into two Asian wars.
On the tenth day of empire we were mired in Asian wars, and soon the bubble economy crashed.
On the eleventh day of empire we got health care, but the Koch brothers stopped us in our tracks.
On the twelfth day of empire homeland spying was exposed, but we got Ferguson cops instead.

More peace songs:
https://www.academia.edu/5592279/PEACE_SONGS_Favorite

Twelve Stages of Empire (encore)

#1. Isolation and Growth. A non empire society with promise can grow if isolated from older militarized neighbors and allowed to devote resources to economic growth rather than military spending.
#2. Economic Dominance. The growing society eventually overtakes the slower growing militarized economies around it and becomes dominant economically.
#3. Military Domination War. Economic domination leads to military domination after war between the top two economic powers. Usually the other power has been dominant but has limited its growth through militarism allowing the new power to catch up and overtake it.
#4. Military Control of Others. Military domination leaves the new power in an unstable position, usually leading to maintaining high levels of peacetime military power in the mistaken belief that it is now a rich society and can afford to maintain a higher level of military spending.
#5. Economic Control of Others. The new power can dominate now both militarily and economically and proceeds to do so.
#6. Military: Source of Political and Economic Power Internally. The military now becomes a dominant internal force and begins to dominate and control politically and economically within its own original society.
#7. Destination for the Young. The new dominant society attracts aspiring young people from around the world who want to be a part of the highest level of civilization.
#8. Military Industrial Complex Dominates Government. The high levels of military spending lead to the formation of a military industrial complex that turns its dependency on the government around and starts to dominate and control the government.
#9. Generating Wars to Dominate Internally and Externally. The new military economy justifies itself to the larger community by generating and rationalizing new wars to increase its domination both internally and externally.
#10. Economy Erodes as Scientists, Engineers, and Capital Wasted. The economy erodes with the new high levels of military spending as the best resources of scientific talent, engineering talent, and capital investment are consumed in the nonproductive military economy.
#11. Workforce and Society Stagnate and Change. The new slower growing economy that emerges now demands a “sideways” workforce to manage the stagnation. Soon the whole society changes to meet the new situation. The command and control nature of the military reinforces these internal changes. Crime, poor health, and income inequality grow.
#12. Collapse or Replacement. The now collapsing society can salvage some of its former glory by abandoning expensive overseas entanglements, or seeking another society to take over its formal role of dominance. New international institutions can help make either task easier.
For more information about how these twelve points apply to America:
https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE
Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
Real Economy and/or Peace Economics free pdf on request by members of the press
An archive of this yearlong press release campaign can be found at: https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/

Cause: Empire or Capital?

By Dr. Robert Reuschlein
Overview
Which system produces more social damage (sometimes called “structural violence”)? The system of unrestrained capitalism as many socialists argue, or the military empire system of wasting key resources on domination and war? Socialists argue that capitalism leads to imperialism and war. But war has been around much longer than capitalism, so I prefer to look at each rather than lump the two together. All my research time and again over the last century shows that military spending changes lead directly to economic changes of similar magnitude the same year. Combine this with the finding that many have shown that economic change leads to other changes such as political, social, crime, occupational, and more.
Europe
The countries of the European Union are all capitalistic countries, yet they all have better social statistics than the United States. They have medical care and education provided free of charge for those who need them. They have twice the vacation time and work hundreds of hours less each year than Americans. They have much lower rates of obesity, homicides, infant mortality, teen births, and mental illness than Americans. Europe is exhibit A that empire is more damaging to the social structure than capitalism.
If we believe, as Harry Targ does in his essay The Meaning of Ferguson that “the root cause of exploitation, racism, and sexism is structural violence (capitalism)” then why is that exploitation so much less in Europe? The answer is militarism. The use of force to repress demonstrations is fundamentally a militaristic response, not a capitalistic response. The use of demonization of the victim shot by the policeman is fundamentally a tactic used in warfare, not capitalism. If banking is at the heart of capitalism, is it not true that Gordon Adams in his book The Iron Triangle has documented the unusually heavy corporate interlocks between defense contractors and major banks? So if political and economic systems are dominated by the wealthy and powerful, in the American case, that includes the military industrial complex as something that in turn dominates the wealthy and powerful and strongly shapes the culture.
Militarism in the Middle Ages
The regression of civilization after the fall of the Roman Empire is evident in the European Middle Ages. As the empire collapsed, it was everyone for their own self, leading to pockets of stability maintained by warlords with castles and moats. This leads to the widespread economic inequality of lords and serfs. This leads to the ascendency of religion over science, because religion is communal and easy to understand, while science is specialized and complicated. Feudalism is an extreme case of militarism.
Modern Data
The extensive data bases of the twentieth century and now allow connections to be established much better than in those periods when Keynesian, Classical/Monetarist, and Marxist ideologies were established. War and empire were considered foreign policy and political constructs not related to the domestic economy. Today we can show the failings of those three branches of economic thought mentioned before, and can show that economics is directly tied to military spending levels and changes. So many of the old constructs come into question, and must be replaced with more accurate explanations based on the meticulous accuracy of the new military spending economic models.
Globalization
The military policy of the United States globally is to secure the trading routes. But China does not need a worldwide navy in order to succeed. Instead of threats, they invest in Third World countries with $110 billion in two years compared to the World Bank at only $100 billion. They are happy to take Chile’s copper for their factories. And the recent attempt to secure oil fields in Iraq (See Rachel Maddow’s recent expose) has led to retaliation due to our Ferguson style occupation tactics. Cynics may even interpret our foreign policy as designed to create adverse reactions that then justify our role as global policeman. 708 bases worldwide may help secure our investments overseas. But on a ten year cost basis, we spend as much on the military as the total cost of United States overseas investments, hence Lloyd’s of London would no doubt be a far cheaper way to insure overseas investments, and it would be in keeping with recent trends to privatize government services. Look at Libya and Benghazi as recent futile attempts to use the military to insure things go our way overseas. And in a bipartisan way, look at the 240 dead marines in Beirut under President Reagan in 1983. Millions died in collateral damage or in Cold War proxy wars the last seventy years. We had 186 troops incursions in Latin America during the twentieth century, these did not improve the United States image overseas or in Latin America. Hot spots do not make good trading spots, except for the militarists. Trade is good for capital, but empire is not.
Summary
A friend returned from Denmark on a recent trip. She had asked a hotel clerk how much to tip the cabdriver, and he replied, madam we pay our people well over here so there is no need to tip them as there is in the United States. Empire has only rewarded the top 1% at the expense of the 99%. The trading regions and stock market regions of the American coastal states have exploited the industrial heartland so much from 2000 to 2010 that the American stock markets stocks added 2.1 million jobs by adding 3 million jobs overseas and reducing 864,000 jobs in the United States, while private sector jobs dropped 14% in pay levels. This high military spending decade is in sharp contrast to the low military spending post Cold War nineties, where 23 million jobs were added under Clinton and wages went up not down.

For more on the internal nature of empires:
https://www.academia.edu/4044446/EMPIRE_ECONOMICS

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy 1999 and/or Peace Economics 1986 free pdf on request by members of the press)

War Cycle, 54 Years Long

By Dr. Robert Reuschlein

Overview
The primary cycle of 54 years consists of 27 years of warming followed by 54 years of cooling or at least nonwarming. The secondary sinusoidal cycle consists of strong economy when cooling and weak economy when warming. Cooling invigorates human beings and warmth slows us down. The secondary cycle is front loaded slightly with a 24 year growth perfect sine wave from the multiyear averaged bottom to the multiyear averaged top, followed by a similarly sinusoidal 30 year decline phase. The tertiary cycle is the war cycle. The secondary war in the American case occurs eighteen years before the primary war and right at the top of the economic growth rate cycle, in the middle of the wealth accumulation cycle. The primary war occurs three or four years after the end of the high economic growth rate period (as the wealth building period peaks and ends), often in the coldest year of the 54 year cycle. Note that as the economy begins to turn negative, pressure is high on politicians to take people’s minds off the economy by taking on foreign threats. Also at the end of the high economic growth phase, differences among nations have just been maximized with a new peck order among nations that can be tested and affirmed by war. So multiple factors are all aligned just right at the time of breakout of the major war.

Presidential Age Cycle
The average age of a United States president at the start of their administration is 54, just the same as the cycle length. The average age of a president going to war is 58 years. A president born at the time of the last major war is likely to be very unfamiliar with the disastrous decision making that leads to such wars and largely unfamiliar with the direct consequences and deaths of such a war 54 years ago. The secondary war against a secondary power usually is often by a president who served in the military during the last major war 36 years ago. These are ambitious one sided wars against lesser powers, such as the Mexican American War, the Spanish American War, Korean War, and Iraq War. The successful safe war sets up the country 18 years later for the high cost major war, sort fooling the country into complacency about war just enough to blunder into a major war. The 36 years between the major war and the next “testing” secondary war in the middle of the economic boom period is still to close to the horrors of the last major war to have presidents who were about 36 or fully mature adults when the last major war occurred, so war temptation follies are more easily resisted.

Political Party of War Streaks
The Civil War of 1861 and Spanish American War of 1898 were lead by Republican presidents. Then the Democrats took over for the 1917 World War, the second 1941 World War, Korea of 1950, then Vietnam of 1965. Then back to the Republicans for Gulf War 1991 and Iraq War 2003. The Second World War and the 1775 Revolutionary War and the Gulf War are in the 7 percent of major and secondary wars “peace” period. By that I mean the 2004 to 2031 half cycle period has 93% of the major and secondary wars, the two wars with the most deaths in each cycle, while the 1977 to 2004 period half cycle is the period of peace or very small wars. These estimates of 7% and 93% are based on three centuries of Roman Empire major wars, Joshua Goldstein’s 500 year study of European Wars, and two centuries of American wars, all mapped on the 54 year cycle.

Anomalies of the War Cycle
The World Wars look like the modern equivalent of the 1618 to 1648 Thirty Years War. One book even has the title the 1914-1945 World War, and the noted economist John Maynard Keynes was a young man on the British negotiating team in 1919 when the Versailles Treaty ended the World War. He wrote a book predicting their would be a Second World War because of the harsh terms of peace imposed on Germany. The first Thirty Years War was going well for the Swedish Lutherans until the French Catholics entered in 1635 and turned a secondary war into a major war. That was bad enough to keep Sweden peaceful for centuries after that. For the Swiss it was a bad taste of the Napoleonic Wars that convinced them to stay peaceful after 1815. For all of Europe, the Napoleanic Wars were bad enough with the invention of mass conscription, that they largely skipped a cycle while America has its worst war, the Civil War in 1861. The Europeans managed two secondary wars instead, the 1856 Crimean between Britain and Russia, and the Franco-Prussian War of 1870. The result was war came back with triple the usual 1.5% of the European people dying in the major war, to the 5% level of deaths each in the two World Wars. A similar war hiatus occurred a century later, when perhaps because of the nuclear bomb, major war did not break out as scheduled in 1970. The Sino-Soviet border clashes of 1969 had the potential of a major war, as did the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, but instead two secondary wars by each superpower happened, with Vietnam in 1965 by the major power five years early and Afghanistan 1979 by the second leading power nine years late. This strongly resembles the pattern around 1862 when Britain’s Crimea came six years early and Prussia (later Germany) came eight years late in 1870. Of course, one continent away, the American Civil War came one year early in 1861 with 1% of the American people dying in that war.

The Next Major War
The next major in could be 2024, by the averages, or 2025 by the most frequent date historically, with 6 of 17 major wars mapping out to 2025. 2025 being the most likely date of the last cold year before the next major global warming spurt of 27 years starts. Is it inevitable? Not at all. The last cycle the Northern Hemisphere was hotter in 45 of 48 years than the Southern Hemisphere from 1921 to 1968. Major tensions at that ending date lead to the 1966 Cultural Revolution in China, the French student riots of 1968, the King assassination race riots of 1968, and the Democratic Convention of 1968 police riot. Then as the Northern Hemisphere cooled and the Southern Hemisphere took over the lead in global warming in 1969, the China Russia border clashes occurred in the 1969 cooling year.
This time trade relations are so strong that that may help avoid a Japan #3, China #2, United States #1 war of some kind as the economic peck order in the Far East resembles that just before the first World War in Europe with Britain #3, Germany #2, and the United States #1. However back then the US was leaning away, now the US is leaning forward with recent deployments in Australia. So something still may happen on schedule, and don’t forget Korea. Emerging forms of world governance may save us from our worst instincts this time, but don’t be surprised if some small war or crisis doesn’t happen, or worse happens, when the circumstances are just right for a major war to break out.

For more writing on the coldest year wars:
https://www.academia.edu/5479721/WARS_Coldest_Year
For wars and 56 total examples of the long cycle:
https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54_year_Cycle

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy 1999 and/or Peace Economics 1986 free pdf on request by members of the press)
An archive of this yearlong press release campaign can be found at: https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/

Top 10 Election Plus Peace

By Dr. Robert Reuschlein
As our elections continue to be defined by the party of military spending against the party of domestic spending, it is crucial to look at state rankings, on a per capita military spending basis, to understand what is going on in the Senate elections this year.
#1 Of the 36 SENATE elections this year, the high military spending top 17 split 14 (82%) for Republicans and 3 (18%) for Democrats. The low military 19 split 10 (52%) for Republicans and 9 (48%) for Democrats.
#2 The only OPEN SEAT to go to the Democrats was in Michigan, ranked 47th of the 50 states in military spending, a solid blue presidential state. Republicans won six open seats with an average military state ranking of 31.
#3 The only INCUMBENTS defeated were five Democrats, and four of the five were from the high military group of states. This includes Louisiana where the Democrat has no chance in the runoff. The only low military state incumbent defeated Democrat was Arkansas, ranked 38, but a deep South state surrounded by high military spending states.
#4 In GOVERNOR’s races, the advantage for Republicans was more across the board and a little less decisive in favor of military states than in the Senate. Republicans won 12 (75%) to 4 (25%) in the higher military spending states, but they also won 12 (63%) to 7 (37%) in the low military spending states. Two independents won governorships.
#5 2002 Iraq NO WAR vote was compared to the Campaign For United Nations Reform voting record on issues and found to be 0.80 correlated to the average of the congressional delegation of each state. Vermont and Hawaii topped the list against the war with perfect 100% records and CUNR with 93% and 91% respectively.
Best of 2014
#6 Top press release for the one year anniversary of expertclick.com (see http://www.expertclick.com/12613/12613.aspx) is 10 Military Domestic Effects with 5550 press release views out of 31,314 by October 31st this year. I’m really catching on with less than 3000 views a month the first eight months and less than 10,000 total views until June 5th. Since the start of the last four months in July every month has been over 3600 peaking at 7208 in October.
10 Military Domestic Effects can be found here: http://www.expertclick.com/NRWire/Releasedetails.aspx?id=60869
#7 Top paper on my academic website is Military Dis-Economics with 132 views and total views for the website since I began keeping track last October 7th of 1327. Military Dis-Economics is here:
https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_HighAccuracy13_1p_13
#8 Top published paper Militarized Terror Policing published by the Journal of Nonviolent Change Fall 2014 has had 37 academic viewings since October 30th and 712 views of the original press release issued on August 17th after the Michael Brown police execution in Ferguson, Missouri August 9th.
Here is Militarized Terror Policing https://www.academia.edu/9028202/Militarized_Terror_Policing
#9 Reached the top 4% of all academia.edu websites when Jim Peterson (who met me at my annual PeaceFest in Baraboo, WI) reposted 12 Stages of Empire on the Democratic Underground September 29, 2014. This power point version of 12 Stages of Empire listed on academia.edu has 70 visits, 37 from the Democratic Underground:
https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007
#10 My “other theory” about the 54 year global warming cycle also generated a lot of interest, as the TEMPERATURE graph became number two on academia.edu with 92 views and Evaporation Changes World became the number two press release with 2060 viewings.
Here is the temperature graph:
https://www.academia.edu/4090273/TEMPERATURE_CYCLE_PROOF
Here is Evaporation Changes World:
http://www.expertclick.com/NRWire/Releasedetails.aspx?id=58220

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy 1999 available as $10 ebook)
An archive of this yearlong press release campaign can be found at: https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/

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