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Archive for the month “May, 2015”

Turkeys of the Arboretum

Overview

The last ten years we’ve been observing wild turkeys in the University of Wisconsin Arboretum and Madison’s Owen Conservatory, both a few miles apart on Madison’s West side. Newspaper accounts say there are about 60 turkeys on the West side of Madison and forty in the East. While we almost daily look for turkeys in the Arb or Owen, we only saw turkeys once on East Washington Avenue, a crowded arterial that politely stopped traffic to let the turkeys cross over the street while we watched.

Flying

It was after years of watching that we finally saw the turkeys fly. Turkeys hate to fly, love to walk, and will go to great lengths trying to walk around a fence rather than flap their wings to fly over a six foot fence. Turkeys like roads and use them frequently walking around. After many years we recently noticed a small group of turkeys flying up to tall tree branches about a half hour before sunset. This was from the short quarter mile road into Owen Conservatory, where they apparently prefer to use the smooth asphalt uphill from the trees to launch themselves upward for a night’s rest in the trees. Because they hate to fly, starting uphill from the trees allows them to minimize their effort. Sometimes they are forced to double there effort to make it up to an appropriate limb at the end of their short flight. Then in late May at 5:30 am in early daylight I drove over to Owen before the gate was open. I parked on the street and walked about half way down the road when I heard a turkey chortling about three times before I heard another two birds join the gobbling. That was apparently the wakeup call and the confirmation that the others were now awake. Suddenly one turkey flew down quite close to me, about ten feet away. He was surprised to see me there and promptly started walking down hill away from me, as three more turkeys flew down to the road about halfway between me and the street. Soon there were six of them gathered together on the road. Then they started uphill towards me, so I accommodated them by going away from them towards the parking lot at the top of the hill after an S turn. No sooner did I enter the first turn of the S turn than I confronted three turkeys walking side by side like the three musketeers, about thirty feet from me. So I figured out these birds had “stayed” in the trees West of the parking lot unlike the more usual spot downhill and East of the main road in. I figured the two groups wanted to join together, so I continued my walking uphill to the parking lot on the South edge of the road so the birds could pass me on the North edge of the road and join the lower group of six. That worked, as the birds knew I meant them no harm and they edged over to the one side of the road and let me pass them by. Uphill near the second turn of the S turn I noticed one turkey in the yard of the caretaker’s house. As I passed more bushes, I soon saw that there were five turkeys in the yard. These appeared to be the slightly browner shade of hens, female turkeys. The other nine were probably males, with a more blackish coat of feathers, except for the beautiful fanning feathers in the back.

Male and Female

It was hard to tell male and female apart at first, until I ran into a person who explained to me the difference. Males and females tend to hang out in separate groups most of the time. The male is more colorful with a red piece of flesh hanging from his neck below the beak. The males also have a “tie” hanging from their front maybe eight inches or so below the beak, attached to the main body, and it may be about eight inches long.

Courting

In the Spring, usually March and April but occasionally February or May, males like to fan to attract a female. Sometimes they are alone or with another male or two also fanning. Often there is no female in sight. When there are females in sight, they often ignore the males fanning, although the males will turn to face the females and present a good view. But usually the females just keep munching stuff along the ground, too busy eating to worry about the males. They often are moving away from the males while munching. I once observed sex with the female facing away from the male spread eagled on the ground, while the male flapped his wings several times to get in the right position to approach from the rear.

Mothers

Once I saw a turkey surrounded by small birds by the side of the road. Turned out to be 13 baby turkeys with their mother. I know it’s not the proper term, but we call little baby turkeys “turklets.” Later that year we saw the mother parading a long string of thirteen adolescent turkeys through the countryside. Once we saw a mother with five turklets on the road. The mother and four turklets flew into the nearby trees. The lone remaining turklet struggled to join them, several times pushing off with one foot but going nowhere. We watched in our car hoping she’d get the courage to take off, when finally she did, joining the others who were watching this whole episode from the trees. Sometimes you just have to flap your wings and fly, even though you may think a little leap will do it.

Rain and Seasons

Turkeys seem to love the rain. I think the rain forces worms and grubs out of the ground where they make an excellent meal for the turkeys. You always see more turkeys in the rain. More turkeys are visible after the leaves have dropped. Daily totals in the arboretum often reach the twenties or thirties in November or December. In the spring the total may only reach the teens. In the summer, with plenty of foliage to hide behind, the daily total may stay in the single digits. Late winter and early spring the numbers may fall off as surviving the winter may be hard. In April and May the numbers may drop as nesting begins.

Group Size

Turkeys often travel in groups of three or four, but seem to prefer groups of seven or multiples of seven. So you may see groups of thirteen or twenty or twenty eight. Often a group of four has a sentinel maybe twenty or thirty feet away watching the group. I think this is a defense mechanism, with one turkey on stand by while the other three munch away without worry. The sentinel system is more efficient with a group of seven, as six can eat while the one watches. Groups can grow as they pick up stragglers. Why the prevalence of the number seven is a mystery to me, but turkeys like small groups and seem to be anxiously looking around when alone or in smaller groups like three or four. At Owen, when the groups settle down for the night, it’s usually a group of twelve or two groups of six each or thereabouts. In the trees there may be a cluster of three or four with several sentinels in different directions.

To read about other natural phenomena: https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_7_p._from_WWW_1997_2014

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Robert Reuschlein
Real Economy Institute
Madison, Wisconsin
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy and/or Peace Economics free pdf on request by members of the press)
An archive of this yearlong press release campaign can be found at: https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/

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Nader, Yale, UW Data Group

Overview

In the space of one week, traveling to three states, I returned my ranking on academia.edu to the top 5% in site visits the last thirty days. I found a new friend in Ralph Nader, made a big splash at Yale, and withstood peer review scrutiny in the local University of Wisconsin Madison Data Discussion Group at the new Discovery Center.

Ralph Nader, Rowe Campground, Massachusetts
The event in the Bay State was Ralph’s way of working on the “Citizen Summons” concept where you build support for an issue one congressperson at a time, getting a core group of 15 volunteers to bring a group of 300 to 500 people to a meeting with the congressperson about that issue. This way, multiplied across the whole US Congress, a group of citizens less than 1% of the population can start a social movement on any issue that has majority support in the opinion polls.

I used the law of return to my advantage, that is, as you give so shall you receive in return. I shipped a case of 100 of my videos on Peace Economics to the conference, so that everyone who came got a free video. Ralph talked to me privately at the first dinner before the first session as I sat down next to him when I had the fortunate opportunity. I didn’t know if he would stay the whole conference or turn proceedings over to a confederate after a while. Fortunately, he stayed the whole conference, with his sister as his confederate intently listening the whole time and often participating. I later found out that the first conference he held at the same site a half year earlier was much more participatory, but feedback from that event encouraged him to play a much stronger lecture role in the three day conference.

Ralph generously announced my gift of a documentary on the military economy in the first of four sessions. He acknowledged my research efforts at all the sessions. In the third session he opened the floor for five minute speeches from the audience as I led off followed by another Wisconsin colleague. Then I passed a flyer around with the 10 domestic effects of military (empire) spending. In the final session Ralph talked about how empires decay and are brought down by internal forces rather than external forces, reinforcing the empire concept my video leads logically into. During the conference a half dozen or so people of the fifty two in attendance personally thanked me for the video, and at the end I passed out more videos requesting that they donate those videos to their local library, for a total of 71 videos distributed. One person actually viewed the DVD during the conference and gave positive feedback. After the conference there were significant activity increases on my two or three main websites.

Yale Legal Fiction Conference in New Haven, Connecticut
The “legal fiction” conference in Yale the two days before returning home May 20th, also went very well. I met the first speaker, a professor from Germany, one hour before the conference was to start. She took my card as I said I had invented new better macroeconomic and global warming theories, and later on in the conference called on me by name. The two of us from Wisconsin left a big impression asking questions during the conference, and heads turned to look at me in the last role when I clearly laid out the biased situation in the Ferguson Missouri grand jury case in the shooting death of Michael Brown by policeman Darren Wilson. The key facts were that the policeman testified first, as if Michael Brown was being investigated and the policeman was testifying against him. This set up the policeman’s fiction as authentic and was supported by testimony of a white woman. This white woman was never at the scene the prosecutor admitted, one month after the decision not to charge the officer, when the prosecutor was interviewed on a local radio station.

Later I went to the Yale Law School in search of the Reuschlein Room mentioned in an internet listing of a distant relation, Harold Reuschlein, who graduated from Yale Law School in the forties and helped to found Villanova Law School in the fifties as well as writing a famous law text book. The gatekeeper at the door lead me to someone else in groundskeeping who might know of this Room, who led me to another person, who led me to another person in the library in the top three floors of the building. Together we discovered that Harold had come from Burlington, Wisconsin, a small town in Southern Wisconsin not unlike my great great grandfather’s home town of Plain, Wisconsin. In fact, Burlington had the church that notable Madison journalist John Nichols attended as a child. John Nichols now frequents the book store of Spring Green, Wisconsin, the next town over from Plain, Wisconsin, and he also knows of the Reuschlein clan. Most Reuschleins, a rare name in the Munich phone book, either live in Wisconsin or Kulmbach, Bavaria, Germany according to the world book of Reuschleins with about 100 listings in the whole world. So when 52 year old Heinrich Reuschlein moved from Tauberbischoffsheim, Baden, Germany, to Plain, Wisconsin in 1854 (1852 by some accounts) with my then 16 year old great grandfather Sebastian, he started an explosion of Reuschleins from Wisconsin.  Small world.  Harold was my father’s third cousin.

Data Discussion Group in Wisconsin
The next day, May 21st, I gave a presentation on how to construct a model in 28 steps to a Data Discussion Group at UW-Madison’s Discovery Center that had started February 5th. My article consisted of 17 pages of my collected works from my first book in 1986, two papers in 2014 and one in 2015. I had impressed the group with insightful observations and questions for months now, and my suggested topic was finally taken up. Unfortunately, attendance was light as the semester had just ended with grades turned in just days before. But interest was high and one participant by teleconference from Marshfield viewed two of my papers online afterwards, as did a few from Madison before and after. So peer review of my work by this group went well. I am looking forward to presenting a hundred year history of the US military budget, deficit, and economic growth in La Crosse Wisconsin at the Economic and Business History Society next Friday, May 29th, 2015. I also will participate in the University of Toledo Peace Education symposium July 26 to August 2nd later this summer.

Current version of the class I have created to teach this ground breaking material:
Cover Letter, Proof of Concept, Nine Areas of Mastery, Creating Model, 31 Class Sessions:
https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages_2015

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Robert Reuschlein
Real Economy Institute
Madison, Wisconsin
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com

War and Occupy Economics

Myth of the War Economy

Most people believe that, at least in the short run, war is good for the economy. Detailed analysis usually refutes that notion. Then again, the initial war economy may seem stimulative, but it gets steadily worse as a long war progresses. Then at the end of all wars that I know of, comes a depression or recession, usually more severe and long lasting for the more severe and longer lasting wars. In largely peace time military expansions, the military growth in concentrated mini-regions of the nation comes at the expense of the normal manufacturing economy. Taking a snapshot at a given year, in each state it is generally true that the higher the manufacturing the lower the military spending or vice versa, the higher the military spending the lower the manufacturing sector of each state. This trade-off is because both military spending and manufacturing depend on high levels of capital investment and research scientists and engineers. So when a nation uses these key economic resources for producing goods, the nation prospers. But when the nation uses these key resources for political power projection, the economic growth of the country suffers as a whole from this withdrawal of key economic resources. Futhermore military engineers are so trained to maximize costs and complexity that they are useless to the civilian economy of cost minimizing engineers. So an over militarized economy can drive out the goods producing economy because the two types of engineers mix like oil and water. This is why states like Mississippi, Missouri, Kansas, and Utah underperformed in the Reagan military buildup of the eighties. There is some evidence to suggest an initial adrenaline boost at the start of wars and a letdown after the war ends. This reaction resembles the high one experiences getting drunk at a party followed by the hangover the next morning. Long term statistical evidence of the major economic powers shows that: the higher the military spending the lower the capital investment of a nation. So military spending depletes capital investment and the growth rate of manufacturing productivity.

World War Two

The Second World War has cast a very long shadow over world affairs with much misunderstanding. First, the timing of the war suggests it is better understood as the second half of a combined 1914-1945 world war. In this way it resembles the thirty years war of 1618-1648. That thirty years war between the Lutherans and the Catholics was being won by Sweden from 1618-1634. Then the French entered in 1635 and the war was lost by Sweden. Sweden had such a bitter experience from that war that they have stayed out of wars ever since. They have instead created one of the world’s great peace institutes, SIPRI. Of the seven great powers involved in the Second World War, the United States suffered the least damage and the lowest percentage of their population dying in the war. Still, the neutral country, Sweden, had higher growth than the United States in the decade of the forties. Both neutral countries, Sweden in World War Two and the United States before entry in World War One, suffered flat economies during the war. France suffered a 40% drop in economic performance during the German occupation in World War Two. This is similar to the 40% weaker economy of East Germany compared to West Germany during the Cold War. So occupation seems to reduce a nation’s economy by about 40%.

Recovery

Just how devastating the war was is shown by the time it took for each nation to recover to their pre-war economy. For Japan it took 17 years from 1938 to 1955 to recover. For Germany it took 13 years from 1938 to 1951 to recover. For the Soviet Union (Russia) it took nine years to recover from 1940 to 1949. For the United States the war did grow the economy 34% in four years, but it took five years to recover from the post war recession, from 1945 to 1950. And the United States still underperformed neutral Sweden for the decade 1940 to 1950. But the United States economic growth of 86% in the eight years from 1934 to 1941 inclusive greatly exceeds the eight year growth from 1942 to 1949 inclusive of 23%. 25 days of war in 1941 would not change these results to any significant degree. Thus the accidental timing of the war just as the Great Depression was ending should not be enough to justify the claim that the war brought us out of the depression. Comparative statistics from the years 1860 and 1880 show that the United States lost 20% of their economy relative to Britain in those twenty years. The Civil War economy was a huge disaster for the United States.

Deficit Booms

Had Roosevelt kept stimulating the economy in 1937 and 1938, preventing the 1938 recession, full employment would have been achieved before the war in 1940, two years before the war really started in 1942. Instead, he let the new social security tax start uncompensated for by jobs programs, and boasted about balancing the budget in the 1936 reelection instead. When will politicians ever figure out that balancing the budget is a prescription for more economic disaster in hard times? Roosevelt Carter and Bush the first all learned the hard way that tax increases to balance the budget can destroy the economy. It cost Carter and Bush their re-elections, and almost beat Roosevelt in 1940. Deficits are the only way to keep war spending from crushing the war economy. Roosevelt was a master at selling war bonds with only 2% interest. Wilson and Lincoln had to pay 5% interest to fund their wars.

War Experience Effects Future Belligerence

War casualties in the Second World War as a percentage of the nation’s population reveal the postwar belligerence of nations during the Cold War. Germany’s 5% death rate during the war and Japan’s 2.2% death rate made them more low military peaceful and prosperous nations in defeat, while Britain’s 1.2% and America’s 0.4% death rates made them the more high military belligerent Western nations after the war, losing share of the world economy for decades. The Napoleonic Wars were so bad, Switzerland quit war after them. All of Europe skipped the usual major war killing 1.5% of the European population at the time of America’s worst war, the Civil War, then had the worst wars of all time in the World Wars killing 5% of the European population in each of the two wars. That lead to the European Union instead of war, and with the nuclear bomb, inhibited the Sino Soviet border clashes of 1969 from becoming a major war.

Hundred year history of the military economy in the United States:
https://www.academia.edu/4044532/US_PRESIDENT_Military_Economy_1910-2009

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

Depression and World War details:
https://www.academia.edu/4044531/ROOSEVELT_Depression_War_Unpacking_Myths

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy and/or Peace Economics free pdf on request by members of the press)
An archive of this yearlong press release campaign can be found at: https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/

Baltimore Riot the New Watts

Watts Riots Fifty Years Ago

The fourth paragraph on the Watts riot of 1965 wiki recalls events after 1951 when the Los Angeles police force adapted a structure like the military. Unfortunately, while this is said to have made them more professional, they also began to be more racially biased in their tactics. The wiki cites a drunk driving arrest of a black man by white police where a nearby mother and brother of the black man got involved in the initial scuffle, then the community poured in. Another account I read suggested that the riots broke out after an unusually hot period longer than a week, the day the weather cooled off was the start of the riots, thus a precursor to the riots may have been the breaking open of fire hydrants to cool people off with the water. So racism, militarism, and weather may all have played a role in events. Nevertheless, it is striking that that this first big race riot of the sixties occurs one 54 year cycle ago but for a four year difference. The Rodney King riots of 1992 also hit Los Angeles one half cycle later. The cycle changes from warming trend with poor economic growth to cooling trend with strong economic growth every 27 years. So those riots were right on time for the half cycle repetition every 27 years. Unfortunately racial housing restrictions forced blacks into either the Watts area slum or the Compton area for middle class blacks.

Ferguson Riots

The much more extensive damage of the Baltimore riots represents a significant escalation of the scattered fires of the Ferguson unrest. And Ferguson may have had agents provocateurs used in a much more militarized response by authorities in that situation. At least one video shows police officers leaving a car they were gathered around that suddenly burst into flames a few seconds later in front of a building that was later torched without any video evidence. New York had a major peaceful outburst between the Ferguson and Baltimore situations. New York had the lowest military economy of the three cities, with Saint Louis the highest of the three followed close behind by Baltimore. In Saint Louis the prosecutor protected the racist murdering policeman citing one angry white woman supported the policeman’s standard lies and ignored the extremely credible black businesswoman’s account of the scene on the Rachel Maddow show. Hannity just a couple nights ago restated the big lie that there was no evidence the black victim’s hands were raised in surrender. Then the Michael Brown companion’s account disputes the allegation that Darren Wilson’s gun was ever reached for, cites the initial vulgarity used by the officer and the reckless disregard of the officer backing his car into the two black men, forcing them to jump aside to avoid being hit. This interview was by Chris Hayes, host of the MSNBC show just before Rachel Maddow’s. Then pro prosecutor Nancy Grace of CNN is clearly outraged by the obvious lies of the officer in his interview with George Stephanopoulos. This is where an immediate police report requirement could have prevented Darren Wilson from coming up with his carefully crafted false story. Policemen do this all the time in my experience with them, come up with stories and framing that works to convict people. The difference between the South Carolina officer accused of murder thanks to videotape evidence and Darren Wilson in Ferguson is that the lying and assistance in the cover up by other officers is exposed by videotape evidence. With out video tape evidence Michael Brown was not only murdered holding his hands up in surrender, but prosecutor McCulloch assisted the criminal officer by letting him testify first to the grand jury. Just in, I googled this: “A woman who swore she saw teenager Michael Brown pummel Ferguson Officer Darren Wilson and charge him “like a football player,” was lying about being at the scene of the controversial police shooting, St. Louis County Prosecutor Robert McCulloch said Friday in a radio interview. Dec 19, 2014”

Baltimore Riots

Clearly the Baltimore riots are more severe than those in Ferguson, making them more comparable to Watts. The differences are many, but the clearest difference is the prosecutor, who has hopefully put a stop in rioting with the intent to prosecute six officers. In Kondratiev Wave time, this is 1961, 54 years ago from 2015. The civil rights struggle was well under way by then seven year after the 1954 Brown desegregation court case and the 14 month 1956 Montgomery bus boycott of five years before 1961. The riots were still to come four years later in Watts or seven years later after the murder of King in 1968. Selma and “I have a dream” were in 1963. Today, the civil rights struggle and the riots have come together in this 2014 to 2015 period. Thanks to the marijuana decriminalization movement, Rand Paul, and the new Hillary Clinton speech, the prison industrial complex is coming under serious bipartisan challenge. As Jimmy Carter points out, there are six times as many black men in prison today as when he was president 35 years ago, often referred to as the “New Jim Crow” thanks to the book by Michelle Alexander. Nixon’s Southern Strategy has transformed the nature of the Republican Party from the Party of Lincoln to the Party of Jefferson Davis. The deepening penetration of empire into our political system has led to a movement away from policing to “protect and serve” to a strict “enforcement” policing model. These invidious trends are evident even here in Madison, Wisconsin where I live and work and most police are quite humane and the military spending is low. The problem as I see it is to find a non lethal non tazing way to stop people without shooting them. Tranquilizer darts are used with wild zoo animals. Body cameras and back ups should also reduce the use of lethal methods against unarmed people. But the gun is the first resort in too many situations, and human indifference is too often justified in police culture. Multiple shots may overprotect the officer but ensure death of the suspect. The attitude is that’s what these criminals deserve anyway. Can’t we invent some kind of stun gun?

Militarism, Crime, and Blacks are covered in these papers:
https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

This list of cycle events includes riots and other civic events in one section:
https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56

Hint: to read this paper for free, you must click on the tiny word “read” in the middle of the bottom of the screen after you go to the above link on academia.edu.

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute
best contact to ask Bob to speak to your group: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
to leave message: 608-230-6640
for more info: http://www.realeconomy.com
(Real Economy and/or Peace Economics free pdf on request by members of the press)
An archive of this yearlong press release campaign can be found at: https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/

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