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Changing the World Views

How Mastering Macroeconomics and Climate Change Created Kudos and Backlash

My academic work creating a perfect science-like model of economic growth proves that military spending is the biggest impediment to a powerful nation’s economic growth.  That in turn leads to my new defense strategy requiring a nation to minimize military spending or fall into decline that will inevitably be eclipsed by another power.  Many falsely assume this decline to be inevitable, when in fact it is the result of prolonged over-militarization.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee’s failure to recognize this new reality of science only delays, it does not stop, the inevitable recognition that excessive militarization is self-poisoning of a society.  It does not stop the fact that huge stock market gains are possible following the moves of the military industrial complex better and recognizing the Great Lakes states region moves in the opposite direction of the military budget.  That is because military spending drains key science and capital resources away from civilian manufacturing industries that can be restored by reducing the military budget.  Even the military will benefit from initial lowering, because that results in a better future for them and the society around them as the new high growth glide path “tide lifts even the military boat” ever higher faster.

History of Campaigning to Change the World

My campaign to change the world began with a brochure with a bar chart by Ruth Sivard in 1983.  I took it to the walls of legislative workspace of the 1983 Oregon legislative session with blown up copies of that bar chart.  Finding that in my files after the 1985 Oregon legislative session, I realized the world was ignoring her great work, so I began to test it.  My tests lead to the first presentation of material in December 1985 to the Lane County Commissioners, including Jerry Rust who offered to submit my material to the Pulitzer Prize committee back then and in 2016 submitted my first nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Then Frank Arundel offered me his MacIntosh to complete the first edition of “Peace Economics” in 1986 which I extensively footnoted unlike these blogs.  That remains my clearest and most convincing work of the Economic Model that results from the nonproductive nature of military spending.  PRIO, the “Journal of Peace Research” in Oslo Norway where the Nobel Prize is awarded, asked me to submit an article, but I did not know how to, so I ignored them.  I taught three academic years my Peace Economics course from 1987 to 1989 at the University of Oregon.  My enrollment for a Doctorate in Economics at U.O. ended in my withdrawal due to the fact my professors agreed with me that military spending was non-productive, yet it was not in the model we were expected to study for the first year.  Frustrated at the University, I turned to being a monthly columnist 1989-1997 with Peter Bergel’s Oregon PeaceWorker which had a circulation of 10,000.  Soon all the Democratic Congresspersons knew of my work and Peter DeFazio asked me to write a piece for him to read on the floor of the House, but I was intimidated once more, fearing I might be too critical for a political body like that.  Then Richard Schneider of Radio for Peace International asked me to offer a University of the Air shortwave radio course in 1997 until 2004 when RFPI folded.

The New Campaign

Having met a professor at an anti-war rally in 2003, she later helped me find a new Doctoral Program without the obstinacy of Economics.  From 2006 to 2009 I completed the Doctorate in Educational Leadership from Madison, Wisconsin’s Edgewood College, next to the Edgewood High School I once graduated from and earned the first of many subsequent listings in Marquis Who’s Who I am listed in, later including America and World.  My day job for many years had been as a CPA working for my father, but now I could finally get on with my real life’s work establishing the new scientific economic theory no one in the field of economics even thought was possible.  Economists and Accountants don’t have the scientific training of an engineer, my first degree, so I knew the only way was to advance my ideas to academics and the public until the anticipated foot dragging of economists was overcome.  To that end, I turned to blogging press releases on expertclick.com, recommended by an author I had read.  I now have 119,000 views on Expertclick.com over a four year period, 5443 views on Academia.edu, 5014 views on WordPress.com, and about 10,000 views on Realeconomy.com which has links to all the other detailed websites and is the best place to start.

Favorites of the Press

ExpertClick.com shows me constant updates I check daily for the most current 50 press releases sent out to their list of 7000.  Of those who have left the 50 list, but remain on access to site visitors, I update those results once a year.  The full lists ranked by both views and chronologically are at the link at the bottom of this page.  The most popular old releases in the last year are, in rank order of views this last year, in parentheses (all time total), and date:

Predictions 200 (1067) 8-26-14, Global Citizen 190 (1289)     6-28-14, Walker Work Dignity 154 (722) 2-28-15, Politician in Eugene 151 (789) 5-14-14, Scientific Revolution 142 (687) 12-21-14, Nepal Chile 127 (595) 4-28-15, Grandpa Horicon Marsh 121 (695) 3-1-14, Elections Plus 114 (553) 11-13-14, Military Terror Policing 101 (1222) 8-17-14, Modern Feudalism 99 (863) 2-21-15, Religion and Empire 99 (795) 1-3-15, Heat Hurts 99 (652) 9-8-14, Baltimore Riot 97 (613) 5-2-15.

Favorites of the Academics

Academia.edu lists my 72 papers, including seven peer reviewed articles, several six per page power point conference presentations, many chapters of my unpublished book based on the Radio for Peace International course, the most important Defense Strategy and Economic Model chapters of “Peace Economics”, and many special papers on key topics old and new.  These are ranked by downloads as a marker of serious interest in the link at the end of this article. Unfortunately, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has focused only on the superficial ExpertClick.com press releases and not enough on this academic papers section.  The most important work of all is the 1986 Economic Model and the 1986 Defense Strategy chapters from “Peace Economics” worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize.  The Climate War Cycle power point from 7-20-13 World Future Society presentation and the Weather Cycle paper document the 54 year cycle work that is worthy of the Nobel Physics Prize.  Both of these together are worthy of the Nobel Economics Prize.  Alas for me, the world is full of very slow learners. The ranked lists of state, country, and topics are all shown in the link at the bottom of this page.  This is my best source for people and places interested in my work, and show an evolution from mainly US interest, to mainly British Empire interest among the foreign interest, to strong global acceptance of my work beyond the British Empire countries including more US and worldwide gamers from the Gary Gygax and Dungeons and Dragons crowd.

Favorites of the Mostly Political Friends and Public

BobReuschlein.wordpress.com is where I put all my press releases, and it allows typos to be corrected so it is the best version of my press releases and includes some excellent work just before I started with ExpertClick.com in October 2013 including the first interest by the Pentagon and the CIA in my work. This general list to the public and my mostly political friends has very different priorities than the other two.  Much of this comes from referrals.  Here are the 16 most interesting articles according to the common folk out there, in rank order of views:

1133 Scientific Revolution Facts (Thomas Kuhn), 114 “Where to Invade Next” (Michael Moore), 104 Wargaming with Gary Gygax, 92 Game Master Gygax History, 70 Nobel Peace Prize Nominee, 58 Politician in Eugene Oregon, 53 History US Military Economy, 51 The New Weimar Republic, 47 Are Chili and Nepal Related?, 47 Modern Stages of Empire, 43 Scott Walker of Wisconsin, 42 To Hillary Clinton Critics, 40 Paris Terror, Who Gains?, 40 CIA Presidents:  Obama Clinton, 38 Baltimore Riot the New Watts, 38 Odds on Nobel Peace Prize.

For complete ranked lists of viewings by topic, state, country, by websites:

https://www.academia.edu/34794541/CHANGING_WORLD_VIEWS_2013-2017_13p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, October 8). “Changing the World Views”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Changing-the-World-Views-Robert-Reuschlein,2017130137.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Teaching Peace Economics

People wonder why I criticize exactly the people I need on my side.  It’s because I’m not writing for them, my academic colleagues, I’m writing for history.  In the course of time, even though many of them rightly consider themselves great for their disciplines or great among their colleagues, most of them will be long forgotten one hundred years from now.  I’m different.  My work is so unique many fail to understand it.  I will be remembered one hundred years from now, probably better posthumously than now.  I have found scientific bedrock in two fields, economics and climate.  Because I’m an outsider to those fields, a talented mathematician, wargamer, and politician in that order, I consider my best chance for a Nobel Prize is in the political field of Peace.  I consider that I have a very good chance of becoming the first to win three Nobel Prizes, in Peace, Economics, and Physics.  People want to pigeon-hole me into one area or another without seeing the essential interconnectedness of it all.  My achievement would not have been possible without my thorough intuitive understanding of mathematics in a real world context.  A mathematician and wargamer with depth in politics is what it took to find the answers in fields long thought to be imprecise in the aggregate.  My frustrations and situation sound a lot like those of Galileo trying to awaken the world to the Copernican Revolution in astronomy to me.  Try telling today’s economists that military spending and temperature trends are the two biggest impediments to economic growth.  They’d be rolling in the aisles with laughter.

Living with Thomas Kuhn’s Insights

When Thomas Kuhn wrote “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” he gave me the guideposts to understanding the resistance of those in the world around me when I came out with my first strong findings in my short book “Peace Economics” in 1986.  Days ago I attended a memorial service of another somewhat reclusively shy academic, Warren Hagstrom, a Sociology Professor at UW Madison, either the first or second ranked such school program in the world (Berkeley is the rival).  On the cover of his memorial service brochure is this John Maynard Keynes quote “The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”  Indeed.  Lately I’ve come to realize the mistake of starting with World War II in my 2010 forty minute video and 24 page accompanying pamphlet on Peace Economics.  Challenging Military Keynesianism by starting with that war is to challenge the most deeply held belief in America, the notion that the war brought us out of the Great Depression.  I have lost several potential allies over that issue (initials GF, FG, and MP).  I should have started slowly and built to such a conclusion ever so gradually.  It’s like when I discovered most people reading the 48 page paperback version of Peace Economics stopped one third of the way through.  Or like the discovery that conservatives instantly want to turn a Peace Economics discussion into a discussion of the merits of war versus peace, instantly stereotyping me as some naïve hippy fool peacenic.  My solution to that problem was to call my website and nineties book Real Economy.  That is when I realized the manufacturing economy was being sacrificed on the military altar.  That further lead to the political insight that the Great Lakes region industrial states were the ones most imperiled by militarism, collapsing with military buildups like the eighties and after 9-11-01 (the aughts?), and prospering with military builddowns like the sixties, seventies, and nineties.

Stunning New Insights of my Life (Math, Political Economy, Peace)

Born the day after my mother’s mother’s funeral, I was traumatized for many years over the mixed messages of grief and love I received from mom in that first year.  It took a couple decades of therapy to figure that out.  My mother was told by a doctor when I was four that I might be retarded.  My grandfather then wrote a poem about me “My Bobby boy, why to you have that somber eye?”  Not until I got an arithmetic test back in the third grade with 100 on it did I begin to realize I was a person of worth.  That was my first ever positive feedback from school.  Math saved my life as it slowly pulled up all my grades over the years, peaking in the high school college wargaming years of math genius turned top wargamer turned top engineer.  Math was the first great insight of my life.  Gary Gygax was my first role model.  Second great insight was to intern in the 1981 Oregon Legislative session.  Nothing but the best of testimony on any given subject, I learned the basics of economic development in the desperate times of the state of Oregon having the highest unemployment rate in the nation and living in the poorest precinct neighborhood in Eugene Oregon ranked last of 378 cities by Rand McNally in 1982.  I learned first hand how the realities of politics were far different than the perception.  Third great insight was the national peace movement list-serves from 2001 to 2005 as a leading member of the Madison Area Peace Coalition, a great lesson in learning about how the military industrial complex really operates and functions, again quite different than the common perceptions.  A fourth great insight lies in the unexpectedly hostile reaction in 2014 by some leading academics of peace and justice, hostile to me personally and to my work.  Although many are keenly interested in my writings and many have very positive reactions to it all, I live the Thomas Kuhn reality of difficulty overcoming pre-existing notions with new insights and awareness.  I live all the time with the John Maynard Keynes corrected quote “The difficulty lays not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”

Resistance to New Ideas

Just as I have been encouraged by Gary Gygax (gaming), Sister Ralph (calculus), Lyman G. Hill, XIII (54 year cycle), Herald Bock and Jerry Rust (politics), Gene Emge (teaching), Peter Bergel (writing), I have been discouraged by others.  Just as my ideas were nourished and flourished in the University of Oregon Eugene political environment up through 1993, I have been generally under-rated and under-appreciated by the Madison Wisconsin University of Wisconsin establishment since then.  There are plenty of exceptions to this broad generalization both ways.  Ageism may play a role, as well as general status difference of an up and coming politician in the eighties in the growing West Coast, versus just another older activist in the stagnant Mid West.

You would think that peace academics would mostly praise and follow up on my extensive work against the military industrial complex, and many do.  Cyber bullying is when a group collectively attacks one person.  Some think three postings a month is too much and use the following words against me:  arrogant, combative, your websites do not meet the threshold I make my students use to write research papers, bragging, claiming to have invented, understanding economics is found in law and ethics not in mathematics, clueless, self-aggrandizement, arrogant self promotion, have you considered running for President, do you ever study nonviolence?, abuse of this list, cherry picking, spamming.

Others say much kinder things:  terrific piece, I’m just saying we ought to all be talking about population and scarce resources a bit more than we do, thank you for your thoughtful and sobering thoughts on selling peace, thanks for getting me back into the loop, so keep up the good work and know that there are people out there who are grateful for your work, you have allies who would agree with you completely, I too think you offer useful insights and support on important issues like the economy and militarism, I appreciate being on your list and enjoy your questions and how you think things through.

I have been amazed at the insularity of many forums at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.  Your status at the University is much more important than your ideas for most of them.  This stands in sharp contrast to places like Oxford or Cambridge where independent scholars are most welcome and appreciated at their numerous forums.

Summary

No new idea is birthed without great difficulty and resistance, and paradigm shifts are often falsely seen as more of the same by some.  Even the new movie “The Distinguished Citizen” has come out showing the difficulties a Nobel Prize winner in Literature experiences in his own home town.  You can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs.  The idea that “if you build a better mousetrap the world will beat a path to your door” doesn’t work without marketing.  Some will complain about self promotion while tolerating it from others on the same list-serve, but actually my several postings about the Nobel Prize quest are very popular on my websites and some complain there is not enough information about myself.  You can never satisfy everyone.

Yes, it pays to read and re-read Thomas Kuhn on Structure of Scientific Revolutions and 10 quotes from that work are included as the seventh and last page of this summary of my main ideas:  https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 4). “Teaching Peace Economics” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Teaching-Peace-Economics,2017119399.aspx

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Senate Power Republicans

Friday three Republican Senators stepped up to stop the massive tax cuts for the rich that would provide loss of health care to 16 million or more middle class Americans.  These heroes were uniquely powerful members of the key Armed Services and Defense Appropriations Committees.  Lesser Senators were intimidated by the power structure.  When half the discretionary budget goes to one agency, the Pentagon, members of those two Senate Committees are uniquely powerful in the whole Congress, including their counterparts in the same two House Committees.  Here is the rest of the story of how those four key committees and people from the high military spending states have come to dominate national politics like no one else.  Senate legend John McCain was chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee from the 13th ranked military state, Arizona.  Lisa Murkowski of third military ranked Alaska and Sue Collins of ninth military ranked Maine, are sixth and fifth ranked Republicans on the Senate Defense Appropriations Committee.  Armed Services can favor weapons systems, but ultimately Appropriations funds them.  Arguably, the 122 members of the House and Senate Armed Services and Defense Appropriations Committees are the most powerful in Congress, other than the overall Leadership like Speaker Ryan and Majority Leader McConnell.  Among the overall leadership, McConnell of seventh ranked Kentucky is second ranked Republican on Defense Appropriations and Senate Assistant Minority Leader Dick Durbin of lowly 43rd ranked military state Illinois is Ranking Member of the Senate Defense Appropriations Committee.

Power from the Military Down

Seventy two years after the epic hegemonic Second World War, all three branches of the American government are dominated by the military budget.  All presidents elected during the Cold War came from “above average military spending per capita” states.  Based on the 1984 data it looks like two term presidents come from states about twice the military average and one term presidents came from states about the military average.  Today that power level has subsided only slightly, but still about 75% of the cabinet (78% for Clinton), Supreme Court, and congressional leadership positions come from the half of the country that is high military spending by state.  And the military level tends to rise higher among parties in power and drop a little lower among parties out of power.  The general rule seems to be, the closer to the top, the more direct the military money connection.  The key is not your states total military spending, it is your states per capita military spending that indicates the mutual dependency between the politician and the military.  Democrats who tend to oppose military spending and wars, tend to do so only somewhat, often leaving claims about military spending out of their websites and campaign materials.  Even Obama who opposed the Iraq War had to triple troop levels in Afghanistan to compensate.  Bernie Sanders opposed wars easily but made no mention of cutting the military budget to fund his 14 budget proposals on the campaign website.  Jesse Jackson took 14 issues to the 1988 Democratic Convention, each had some accommodation except the 10% military freeze cut.  Democrats tend to cut weapons funding but not military payroll.  This kind of bowing to the military god goes on and on, leaving many in the peace movement angry at Democrats despite their 90% voting record in congress on small cuts in the military budget.

Women and the Military

When you look at the four key committee 122 military power positions in congress, 29 are filled by women, about 24% of the total, very close to their overall percentage in the congress.  But a closer look reveals the glass ceiling operates similar to the overall discrimination against those from low military states.  For example, when the Senate Republicans crafted health care bills in secret recently, no women participated.  When you break down the percentage of women on the big four committees from high military states versus low military states, 21% are from high military and 29% from low military states.  Military state Republicans are 13% women, while nonmilitary state Republicans are 17% women.  Military state Democrats are 31% women, low military state Democrats are 44% women.  Joni Ernst of Iowa overcame these obstacles to be a powerful woman Republican in the Senate, but it took her being a lifetime member of the Army Reserve or Guard rising to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel while five of the six states she served in were high military.  That’s how you overcome coming from the 46th ranked military state of Iowa to sit on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Military Economic Changes

The biggest change in military state rank from 2010 with the Democrats in power to 2015 with the Republicans in power was Mississippi rising 23 places from 29th to 6th place.  You can thank the Senate Appropriation Committee Chairman and Defense Appropriations Committee Chairman Republican Thad Cochran for that spectacular move.  The big move for a Democrat is Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed, who is ranking member of Armed Services and also sits on Defense Appropriations, so Rhode Island went up 16 places from 26th to 12th.  Maine had bipartisan teamwork going for it as it rose 14 places from 23rd to 9th.  Republican Senator Sue Collins is on Defense Appropriations while Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats) Senator Angus King is on Armed Services.  In the other direction, Wisconsin is a spectacular falling 23 places from 21st to 44th, where Senator Tammy Baldwin seeks to reverse that collapse of the popular Iraq war IUD proof truck sales from Wisconsin manufacturer “Oshkosh Truck”.  She has moved over from Budget to Defense Appropriations.  Typical Democrat, she is shy about the move with no mention on her website, as Madison Truax field will soon be adding F-35s.  She mentions Agriculture Appropriations on her website, her other subcommittee on Appropriations.  She wants more Wisconsin contracts without angering her liberal base as a member of the Progressive Caucus, a tough juggling act.  Health care has always been her top priority and a committee assignment, but coming from the Dairy State, Agriculture Appropriations is also very important for the upcoming 2018 re-election bid.

Summary

While the 22 high military states have equal population to the low military states, they have 70% of the military budget compared to 30% for the low military states.  The representation on the four key military committees in congress is also split about the same, 66% from high military and 34% from the low military states.  It has the appearance of all of them being proportionately representative of the military money.  When the White House threatens to punish Alaska for Murkowski’s vote on health care, the threat rings hollow because she not only sits on Defense Appropriations, but the other Senator from Alaska, Sullivan, sits on Armed Services, just like the situation in Maine with Sue Collins.  Alaska will continue it’s long standing position among the top three with Virginia and Hawaii long after the current President is gone.  Another powerful Senate tandem is Feinstein of California and Murray of Washington who represent drone production and research respectively, and both sit on the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee.  California military rank has risen 9 places from 26th to 17th from 2010 to 2015.  California has a total of ten members on the key four committees, while Washington has three.

For further reading, here is the detailed link to my very popular peer reviewed entry on the “Political Economy of War” in the SAGE Encyclopedia of War:

https://www.academia.edu/28849523/SAGE_POLITICAL_ECONOMY_OF_WAR_2016_6p

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st)                                         for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

Middle Year Empire Update

Making a big impression wherever I go has become standard fare for me now.  Resistance or passive resistance from some social science types has also become standard for me.  The social science view of the scientific method is quite different than the hard science view.  Fortunately the overall tide of acceptance has steadily gained strength, especially this year.  Thomas Kuhn, in his Structure of Scientific Revolutions would expect as much.

Liberal Arts Prejudice Against Professional Schools

The ivory tower concept can apply to all academic schools to some extent.  But it is especially true for the academics in the social sciences, who deeply resent the higher pay earned in professional schools like business, engineering, law and medicine.  When they have control of campus wide awards systems, they may systematically exclude academics from the professional schools from those awards.  As an undergraduate, I experienced this exclusion from the Phi Beta Kappa honors fraternity and as an engineer had to settle for the Phi Kappa Phi all university “equivalent” with a “separate but equal” feel to it, not unlike racial discrimination may have felt a century ago.  While blacks have made great strides, women still face glass ceilings in many academic settings.  A woman who got more votes than Obama in the 2008 primaries and more votes than Trump in the 2016 general election is still not president, because of the caucus system in the first case and the electoral college in the second case.  Recent attempts to eliminate memory of the first black presidency and his legacy show how far we still have to go in racial matters.

Peace and Justice

So after years of making presentations at the Peace and Justice Studies Association I am suddenly excluded in 2016 after supporting an “unpopular” woman presidential candidate on the list-serve and being attacked on the discussion list once for using the word “stupid” defending myself against a slur by “one of their own” against me, and another time by someone posting “refutations” to a small part of my statement in mild support of the Democrat running against their favored Socialist candidate.  A black woman who stood up for Hillary was later hounded out of the group.  This unethical retaliation through peer review is only possible because of the distinctive nature of my work, which makes blind evaluation not possible.  That some clique calls my work unpopular and tries to limit my expression is clearly refuted by the website reaction to my 36 releases a year.  Enthusiasm for my work is growing internationally and lately among Gary Gygax fantasy gamers, recently pushing me into the top 1% on academia.edu.

My point was that the Socialist refused to call for cutting defense to fund any of his dozen proposals, each specifically paid for with specific taxes on separate links of the official website and never with defense cuts.  The Socialist candidate was anti-war on his official website but never called for defense cuts specifically.  This is a common ruse among mainstream national candidates who do not want to lose any swing states with high military spending.   Sanders himself has said on television that he did not come up with the “Feel the Bern” slogan, although he wishes he had.  In that second case, large font quotes were taken from the Sanders independent website FeeltheBern mostly against war and some against military spending, twisting my words and falsely calling me inaccurate, refusing to admit this is tantamount to calling me a liar.  Gee, thanks.  Shouting against me and then saying you did not call me a liar.  Such courage.  Later this same board member openly put down my Nobel Peace Prize nomination rather than celebrating it like a decent human being would.

Methodology

Then a second person of the threesome putting down my Nobel nomination on the list-serve accuses me of not being methodological when I describe the process of creating my pinpoint accurate sixty year model of US manufacturing productivity.  That second person disagrees with my use of continental measuring of economic activity.  This assumes the social science process of creating questions first before surveying for their answer.  That is not the physical science method of observing first before you build your hypothesis.  Precision is not expected in the social sciences because it is generally only found in the physical sciences.  That difference changes everything, including what is considered the scientific method.  Professional schools rely on more traditional scientific methods but that does not make them non-methodological. This is another example of social science bias against professional schools.  It may be that crowds and human nature are viewed as unstable in the social sciences, but in the physical sciences more leads to more stability, just as in economics, moving from the individual to the family to business to the city to the state to the nation to the continent tends to reduce inaccuracies and add clarification of results, thanks to the law of large numbers.

Science and Society

In another instance, an academic organization dedicated to science and technology studies was busily talking about the differences between cultural and socialism versions of feminism when the topic turned to Russia suddenly and I pointed out some Russian history and the group suddenly disbanded and branded me as a Trump supporter which I am not.  At the next regular meeting of the group my hand was raised and for the first time not acknowledged before the group discussion ended after a presentation.  Once again Letters and Science discriminate against an interdisciplinary individual with practical professional real world experience.  Pure high minded academics don’t want to get too close to the dirty business of politics; they just want to talk about it.

Conference in Toronto

In a history of economics conference in Toronto one month ago, I raised a question in the general session that challenged the speaker’s thoughts on religion and was thereafter banned from further questions.  Most conferences and presentations welcome my questions, but some control freak moderators occasionally try to stifle me.  My own presentation was greeted with a lack of questions from a large group of 27 people.  This was the second time I’d tried to present the whole of my accurate economics theory with a similar result.  When I feature one aspect of my theory at a time, I get great receptiveness, but when I bite off more than they can chew, I get stony looks and cool receptiveness.  It was ironic in that one of the keynote speakers went on and on about how economics is not a science, a widespread belief among economic historians, that was well received.  But when I present my tightly accurate results of the science I’ve created about economics, it is a bridge to far for them, that’s not possible they are thinking.  When I break the ideas down to digestible chunks, they usually greet the material warmly.  Once again, Thomas Kuhn would not be surprised by any of this.  Toronto has a wonderful Quaker meeting house group, a Whole Foods that acts like a cafeteria at lunchtime, and a vibrant high tech industry with the Toronto newspaper leading the way.  Baked Lays potato chips are far more delicious in Toronto than the flat shaped and flavorless variety sold in the United States.

Fields of Knowledge Addenda

Main Ideas July 2017, the link to further reading on academia.edu for this press release, consists of seven pages:

The first three pages are 8 PowerPoint frames each on three main topics:

First is “Social Decay of Empire” and Stages of Empire,

Second is “Weather Wealth and Wars” or Global Warming Cycle

Third is “Dungeons and Dragons” Origins of Gary Gygax’s Work

Fourth is “Summary” Military DisEconomics thirteen key correlations

Fifth is “Reductio Ad Absurdum” about the New Macroeconomic Model

Sixth is the “Nine Areas of Mastery” needed to build the Reuschlein Model

Seventh is “10 Scientific Revolution Facts” by Thomas Kuhn

An eleventh point by Kuhn is that an outsider or newcomer like Reuschlein is usually the person who comes up with the new paradigm.  Here is the detailed link:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted and Given Odds for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-17
contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, info: www.realeconomy.com

Wargamer to Peace Economist

Looking back over my life, asking how I got to this point of nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, I have to consider my Avalon Hill wargame experience crucial.

Math and Games

I started with things like Erector sets, Lincoln logs, American bricks, and just blocks.  But there were four siblings and we played board games together a lot, like Careers, Monopoly, Risk, and many others.  I fell in love with two things early on, Games and Math.  Getting encyclopedias when I was seven, and later the Time Life book on Mathematics really got me going.  I loved the way that math book showed all 36 possible combinations of two dice, one in red and one in green.  Dice became the passion that united my two great interests, games and math.  I went on to play games on Democracy, Summit, and standards like Checkers, Chess, and Go.  You name it; I’d try it and be good at it.  But they were all too simple until my older brother and I discovered the Avalon Hill game Chancellorsville in 1961.  We also tried Tactic II, Gettysburg, and D-Day, and I never let him win.  So I needed a new challenge and along came the Avalon Hill General magazine in December 1964.  That was my freshman year moving from five frustrating years in the public schools to a Catholic High School.  That was the last semester in high school I had anything less than an A in math or science.  This was decades before the grade inflation of today, and I was top of my math classes the rest of the time in high school.  I found opponents wanted in the General from other high schools and UW Madison and for the next ten years spent about three times a week, fifteen hours a week, in wargames.  I was a master at the math and probabilities and also the rules, and these two, rules and math, were my edge.  I loved the maps and terrain and playing counters and movement just as well.  Soon I was inventing new rules, new games, and reinventing math before being taught it in the Trapezoidal Rule, the Pythagorean Theorem, and the Binomial Expansion Theorem.  Endless imagination and experimentation became the norms of my life.

Technician in Society

I became a great Nerd.  But humans are social animals, too, and I was a lonely boy who needed a social life.  Opponents Wanted ads and a genius wargamer 90 miles to my Southeast came to the rescue.  No one wrote more articles for wargaming magazines than Gary Gygax, inventing and imagining all the things you can do with wargames.  This local role model noticed me and invited me into his new wargaming club, the International Federation of Wargaming.  I started writing articles too, and inventing games, and starting a wargaming convention in Madison the year after his convention in Lake Geneva.  I attended the first seven GenCons from 1968 to 1974 inclusive, winning Waterloo and tying Afrika Corp the first two Avalon Hill wargames tournaments in 1973 and 1974..  Then I gave up wargaming and Gary agreed to sell my stuff on consignment the last time I saw him in 1974.  Gary welcomed me into his world and I made many trips to Lake Geneva and he came to my first wargames convention in Madison in June 1969.  I had learned the social skills of being a wargaming organizer in Madison, Wisconsin.  I learned many skills, math, games, rules, strategy, geography, military history, and organizing in those ten years of wargaming averaging 15 hours a week, three years of full time equivalent work.  That creative foundation laid the way forward for my fifteen year career in politics from 1978 to 1993 where I learned the issues, campaigning, lobbying, and creating legislation and debates, submitting the 1984 National Delegate Selection Plan for the Democratic Party of Oregon, and meeting at a high level Rainbow Coalition meeting with Jesse Jackson in Chicago in February 1987.  Everywhere I was getting great things done.  Politics is where I discovered Sivard’s work on military spending in 1983.  I discovered the Kondratiev Wave in 1981 from a close friend (Lyman G. Hill, XIII).  We were both in the YMCA Singles Association; where I was president in 1978 and group facilitator from 1978 to 1981.

Summary

These formative experiences combined the endless variety of games and the endless variety of politics into the necessary knowledges that made the Peace Economics breakthroughs possible.  In both macroeconomics and global warming theory these complex yet precise and elegant models will define how people see the coming century.  In both cases stubborn academic bureaucracies have resisted the compelling math of my discoveries.  But I have Thomas Kuhn on my side, knowing that new generations will adopt these basic discoveries and the resistant old order will eventually die off.  The new paradigms will revolutionize the stock market and predictions of the future as the naysayers and doubters are pushed to the side.  Sometime around the year 2025 the world will cool off for two or three years leading into a major war followed by global warming at a faster than ever pace and we will be prepared to mitigate these circumstances or we will blunder ahead ignorant of my discoveries.  The choice is up to each of us individually.  Collectively, if we learn, I will get my rewards.  Today my term “Peace Economics” is routinely marginalized by peace groups as just a large sum of money, seldom if ever considered a major driving force of lost opportunity in the economy, by groups like the Berlin Peace Congress last year and Code Pink this year.  Please stop using my terminology for misleading and understated purposes.  Nations and peoples rise or fall with their choice of military spending levels.

Here is the suit pocket sized booklet for the twenty-fifth anniversary of Peace Economics:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Here are a few key pages about the climate cycle ending in 2025, warned about above:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._WWW_course_9p._2014

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated for Nobel Peace Prize 2016-2017

contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com for more info www.realeconomy.com

Congratulations Frank Goetz

I won an award which lead to an article which lead to an amazing academic reaction unfolding this month.  Here is the story:

Special Recognition Award 2016

Thanks to the Frank Goetz persistent determination I finally relented and entered his Kellogg Briandt Treaty (law against war) contest, due in April 2016.  But I was shooting for the stars trying to get a reply out of very busy presidential campaigns.  I didn’t realize the entry required a reply from the person I sent the letter to.  Only after sending in the 800 word letter to Frank Goetz did I learn about the reply contingency.  I tried everybody, Hillary, Bernie, Trump, even Jill Stein and the Libertarians.  No reply.  I sent the text out as another of my press releases on April 23, 2016 because to use ExpertClick.com you have to have 100% new content, so it needed to be posted before widespread dissemination.  Because I did not get a reply, I thought my chances were over.  Then I got an invitation from Frank Goetz to accept a Special Recognition Award for the letter, which I accepted.  That event happened on August 23, 2016, the eighty-eighth anniversary of the Treaty.  The West Suburban Faith Based Peace Coalition (of Chicago) awarded me this special recognition award by printing the letter along with the first second and third place winners of the contest in the award booklet.  This booklet was handed to everyone at the banquet to celebrate the event and raise money for the ongoing cause.  I was lucky to sit at the same table with the top staff person for Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, whose son won second place.  I then went on to give a mind blowing five minute speech about empire and the American condition.  I’m used to blowing minds of those who have not heard me before; the research was equally mind blowing to me as I developed it in 1985 and 1986 for the first book called “Peace Economics”.  I learned to emphasize the empire economics aspects of the theory over the course of many years.  A frequent listener to my presentations suggests the empire economics theme is the best way to present my extensive material.

Between August and October 2016

I had been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize earlier in the year 2016 with obvious interest showing from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, but this accomplishment did not set the academic world on fire.  I definitely catch a lot of short term attention telling people about that nomination, but then life moves on. What started the academic world on fire was the two entries in the “SAGE Encyclopedia of War, a Social Sciences Perspective” by Paul Joseph, who worked tirelessly helping me perfect those entries.  I was told that the Encyclopedia would go out in October when final editing was approved for my entries in May.  So with the onset of October 1, I put my final copy of these entries out on line in my academia.edu account.  I had come to expect a 10% download rate for my articles overall.  Immediately my 120 (140 today) academic followers took notice and began downloading the article on record pace, especially the “Political Economy of War” article which had a 70% initial download rate per viewing, now 53% after eight months.  Then on October 15th I posted the “Military Keynesianism” article to a download rate of 35%.  “Military Keynesianism” then got a recommendation from a Nigerian Accounting Professor, former Finance Minister of the country, with over one million views on his academia.edu account.  That got me a 1.1 rating on academia.edu in that category.  Then I upgraded my academia.edu account and found out that I’m in the top 1% there on a 12 month basis (and have been ever since).  With the encyclopedia listings, suddenly three times the usual number of international people have been viewing and downloading my academia papers ever since.  After all this on the encyclopedia, Stephen Sachs asked to republish the piece “Dear Future US President” which he called a fine piece on 10-16-16.  This was finally published in the Winter issue of Nonviolent Change Journal p.298-299, online at nonviolentchange.org in February 2017.

Between January and April 2017

After my presentation at the Telos Institute at NYU, at the end of the conference the keynoter approached me humble and speechless as I offered a few words of advice.  His speech could easily have given me another 10 footnotes to my own, but I gave him the big picture.  In March I went to Lake Geneva for GaryCon and found out that I am a legend of wargaming in the “Dungeons and Dragons” world of Gary Gygax followers.  Some suggest they are a better base of support than academics.  Then in April my Geospatial Summit speech was filmed by the ABC affiliate in Madison, WKOW 27, for a future program on “local voices” in the global warming debate.  I continue to do shows on the Mitch Henck radio program for over a year and a half now, about twice a month. He and his audience have grown to love and admire “Dr. Peace.”

Very Special May 2017

On May 8th I finally got around to posting the article “Dear Future US President” published in Nonviolent Change Journal, which posting I do for all peer reviewed material on academia.edu.  Because I had the material out there in press release and blog form about a year ago, I usually wait for a new press release that fits with the academia.edu paper.  I got tired of waiting and had sent out new postings to the followers list of about 140 now for about a half year since October.  So I just posted it with the press release about the Special Recognition Award as the second article in the same “paper” posting.  Then I got the most unexpected huge reaction, people love the piece.  The first week ending 5-14-17 has seen an unprecedented MORE DOWNLOADS (44) THAN VIEWS (39).  Top 2% (by month) by 5-20-17 for the first time an individual paper of mine has ranked that high.  Now it is #1 in downloads of all my 69 papers in just two weeks, on 5-21-17, with a total of 59 downloads while views increased to 64.  Downloads for this paper are still at a personal record 92% of views.  Another first is the three unsolicited messages almost immediately from three people after the paper posting.  So congratulations Frank Goetz for goading me and lauding me, helping me boost my reputation to record international levels with an assist by Stephen Sachs the editor of Nonviolent Change Journal!  Now even the US people are taking more notice, although some of the new US postings are from foreigners working or attending US universities.  The exponential curve I’ve been waiting a long time for may finally be arriving.  It’s been quite a year.  New ideas need new people to notice and finally the word is spreading and growing around the world.  It used to be that people just read a few of my postings to get a feel for me, now it increasing looks like patterns of thinking are pursued in the choice of postings to read.  That tells me that people are beginning to go deeper in their thinking about me and my work.  In other words, they are beginning to catch on.

Here are the two writings creating all this political excitement around the world:

https://www.academia.edu/32905059/DEAR_FUTURE_US_PRESIDENT_Spring_2016_3_pages

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute,                         Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017,                                Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Game Master Gygax History

Stretching the Imagination

The Role Playing Games Industry (Dungeons and Dragons) emerged from war gaming and the discipline and imagination of Gary Gygax (1938-2008) of Lake Geneva Wisconsin.  Born in 1938, Gary grew up fascinated with fantasy books.  In 1958 he discovered Avalon Hill (AH) war games, and when they introduced a fanzine in 1964, the Avalon Hill General, Gary dominated the early writers and contributors to that monthly magazine.  In 1966, Gygax founded the International Federation of Wargaming (IFW), and encouraged fellow legend of wargaming Robert Reuschlein (later nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2016) to join that group that became the largest wargaming group of its time. Reuschlein (age 16), and Gygax (age 28), became fascinated with each other as each developed local groups in the two Wisconsin cities of Madison and Lake Geneva.  They played an epic “play by mail” game of “Battle of the Bulge” in the Fall of 1966 which Reuschlein won, and in 2017 Gary’s son Luke said he hated to lose. “Battle of the Bulge” was the favorite game of Reuschlein and also sixties leading journalist CBS news anchor Walter Cronkite.  Together with the likes of Len Lakofka, Bill Hoyer, and John Bobek, these five dominated the new club from the greater Chicago area.  Gary Gygax developed the first successful wargaming convention in 1968, GenCon, starting with 100 wargamers, now featuring 50,000 attendees in Indianapolis each year.  Reuschlein’s smaller Madison Wargaming Convention started with 24 in 1969 including Gary Gygax, peaked in 1972 at 98, and then crashed the next year to 24 under new management.  Reuschlein was a math and rules wizard with a record of 19-1 as top rated player in the IFW but he stuck narrowly with the AH games genre, while Gary was involved in all things wargaming spending twice as much time per week as Reuschlein and may have written ten times as many articles.  Gary stretched his imagination with land and naval miniatures and eventually castles in a sandbox.  While both Reuschlein and Gygax developed their own games, again Gary was many times more prolific in that as well.  The Reuschlein Gygax bond ended in 1974 as Reuschlein gave up wargaming after winning the first two GenCon AH tournaments and moving to the West Coast after college graduation.  Gary offered to put my games collection up for sale at GenCon as he went on that year to develop “Dungeons and Dragons” and Reuschlein later entered politics 1978 to 1993 in the State of Oregon.  Reuschlein invests in convertible bonds completely unaware his friend Gary Gygax needs money to start the D & D business. Gary’s interest in miniatures, fantasy, and the development of rules for individual combat in the game “Chainmail” lead directly into the development of “Dungeons and Dragons”.  Stretching the imagination with fantasy history and wargaming, detailing the rules with the precision of a claims adjuster, and endless writing experience, lead to the first popular role playing game.

Business of Dungeons and Dragons

In December 1973 Gary forms a partnership named Tactical Studies Rules (TSR) to produce “Dungeons and Dragons”.  One thousand games were purchased in January 1974 and sold that first year.  Doubling every year, within a few years sales were 2 or 3 million a year by 1978-79 and the game became a national obsession.  Gary faced several common issues of entrepreneurs almost immediately.  Starting out he is undercapitalized.  Having lost his day job as an insurance underwriter in Chicago in October 1970, he is forced to turn to shoe repair for a living in 1971. Still in December 1973 he has $1000 of his own, another $1000 from his best gaming friend Don Kaye, and another guy in town, Brian Blume, who is not a gamer.  Starting out with just one third ownership is a big red flag in the small business world.  When you do not have a majority ownership it’s easy to lose control of your company.  The second red flag is the absence of an agreement to buy out owners who want out.  Sometimes this is combined with insurance on the partners so that if one dies, the insurance pays off the spouse of the deceased.  Unfortunately for Gary Gygax both of these issues come back to haunt him.  He is in fairly good shape with his best friend and himself owning a majority.  Then tragedy strikes, as his best friend partner dies in January of the second year, 1975.  Then Don Kaye’s widow sells to Brian Blume’s father Melvin as he outbids Gary.  Now Gary is in the precarious position of minority ownership to the Blumes.  In the summer of 1983, Kevin Blume, Brian’s brother assumes control of the company after Gary’s divorce and Gary is relegated to an entertainment subsidiary and goes to Hollywood.  In late 1984 Gary comes home to oust Kevin for poor performance and seize control of the company in March 1985 using long held stock options.  Then he hires a professional manager Lorraine Williams to run the company who seizes control ousting Gygax after seven months on October 22, 1985.  For a second time he makes the mistake of trusting strangers as his chosen business manager Lorraine Williams buys majority control from the Blumes.

After Tactical Studies Rules

When Gary Gygax took his talents elsewhere, he went on to develop other role playing games, but the spark of imagination that lead to Dungeons and Dragons opened up a whole new field of role playing games with levels of achievement, and eventually much of today’s $100 billion video games industry owes him for this development.  Where would “Grand Theft Auto” and the many war fighting video games be without the basic structure of applied imagination individual role playing games begun by Gary Gygax in 1974?  All these subsequent developments come from the rich imagination of the medieval ages of Western Civilization.  Anthropology and fantasy like JRR Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings”, combined with things like “Star Trek” left the door wide open for Gary Gygax to earn the label #1 Nerd of all time in Sync magazine’s 2002 poll.  A lifetime Camels smoker, Gary Gygax died at the early age of 69 in 2008.  Steven Colbert paid tribute to him on his passing.

Summary

Had I known my friend Gary Gygax needed money in December 1973 I might have invested in his business.  Had that happened, I would probably have ended up rich, but as a second fiddle.  I would not have blazed my own path in Oregon politics that lead to the inventions of my macroeconomics and global warming theories that lead to my recent nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize.  The world does not always beat a path to the door of the person who develops a better mousetrap, it takes marketing.  My work is only gradually getting recognized thanks to my doctorate in 2009, one year after Gary died.  I regret not seeing him in those last years, especially after I moved back to Wisconsin in 1993.  I had experience with others becoming rich and famous around me, such as “Clan of the Cave Bear” author Jean Auel, who I met and shared campground experiences with in Longbow Campground.  That was the annual retreat place of the Oregon Mensa group in the Oregon Cascades just East of Salem.  So although recognition is slow so far, at least it is not posthumous as in the case of Copernicus.  I do not regret blazing my own path and creating two theories each of which is about an order of magnitude improvement on the fields of macroeconomics long term accuracy and global warming temperature forecasting.  That would not have happened in the shadow of Gary Gygax, much as I love him.  His oldest son told me how he would talk about me a lot, so I underestimated his friendship and esteem for me.  I feared he would think of me as another high school classmate that tries to get in with the rich man, rather than an old friend.  One of many mistakes I have made in life.

More on the Reuschlein Gygax story is here in these past releases and findings on the internet:

https://www.academia.edu/32134382/WARGAMER_File_1964-2017_9_pages.pdf

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Telos Institute Lessons

Lessons of Three Great Conferences,  By Professor Robert Reuschlein

Asymmetrical Warfare, Telos Institute, NYU, January 14-15, 2017  

I had great success with the presentation, “Goal of Terrorists: Raising the Cost to Society” at the Telos Institute in New York University.  Asymmetric Warfare raises the cost to society of warfare.  Those in the military industrial complex believe that warfare can enhance themselves and their society.  This belief led to the Iraq War.  Those employing asymmetric warfare believe they can punish the military society’s population enough to make them give up.  This was the strategy that won the Vietnam War.  The asymmetric warrior (aka “terrorist”) believes a militaristic society will implode when enough pressure is put on them.  These so-called terrorists are even more right than they realize.  The eight years of the Reagan Military Buildup tripled the national debt (quadrupling if you add in the 4 Bush years).  The seven years of the second Bush military buildup wars led to the Great Recession, thanks to the surge in military spending in fiscal 2008 and overheated real estate markets in the corruption prone high military states.  Blowback was immediate and internal and escalates over time.  This is exactly what Osama Bin Laden wanted out of the Western response to his provocations, saying in a 2005 speech:  “So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy.”

In my empire economics speech I outlined the true cost of militarization on America, depleting our capital and research resources leading to economic and social decay, including high crime.  Empire stagnation includes the stagnation of the political process in America.  Militarization leads to the direct depletion of the manufacturing sector much faster than the more obvious and visible trade treaty losses of factories.  In the decade after 2001 terrorism has quadrupled.  Goading us into attack has been a goal of the terrorists.  I gave the keynote speaker a copy of my 24 page booklet after his opening speech; he was not impressed but politely took it.  After hearing my speech he keeps reading it while others spoke.  At the end of the conference, he approached me in the cloakroom speechless with a puppy dog look in his eyes, so I said a few words to him.  His speech could have been used for a dozen footnotes to my speech, but he knew I had the big picture down cold.  Telos Institute is a great place that welcomes new ideas, so a colleague has been encouraging me to present there for some time.  That colleague was right on, they loved me there and I fit right in.

 

Ethics and Mental Health Conference, Viterbo U., La Crosse, WI, April 6-8, 2017

The best presentation here was “Gun Deaths and Public Health: What is the Mental Health Connection?” Steve Miles, University of Minnesota Medical School.  Dr. Miles major finding is that gun ownership is proportional to gun deaths.  Handgun suicides are ten times as likely for a kid from a gun household.  You are 4.5 times more likely to be shot when carrying a gun.  Gun owners are eight times more likely to threaten murder. Gun households have four times the homicide rate, seven times the suicide rate, and sixteen times the accidental gun death rate.

This compares to my finding that murder rates and crime rates are proportional to the military spending of a developed country.  The inference is that a militarized society is more likely to murder, all kinds of murder, but suicides are not proportional to military spending.  Perhaps the more militarized portions of a military society are conversant with guns and inclined to own guns.  Are these the people with military training we are talking about?  I do not know that particular evidence, but it does seem likely that those familiar with gun use would be inclined to either join or be from the military.  Military training has advanced since the fifties into a very effective trainer of killers.  Past wars had as many as 78% of soldiers who never fired guns, and in one case a dozen musket rounds were found in a soldiers gun, so reluctant to kill other people that person was.  That changed in US military training in the fifties.

More detail at this link:

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

 

Geospatial Summit, University of Wisconsin, Madison, April 26, 2017

My presentation was videotaped by WKOW TV for a climate voices unit Greg Jeschke plans to produce in the near future.  My talk was titled “How Climate Change trends impact humans, the economy, and politics.”  Temperature studies by industrial engineers have long shown that human performance is reduced at above normal temperatures, reducing productivity on hot days.  There are at least three other sets of evidence that show this effect on economics:  geography, stock market, and US history.  The major war cycle also comes from economic cycles that come from global warming cycles.  Sharp cooling trends of two or three years duration often precede major wars, and volcanoes can trigger this process.  Economic differences expand in the high growth half of the cycle, leading to peak wealth, a new world order, and a major war about three years into the next slow half cycle.  That economic change at the end of the growth cycle may encourage politicians to look for a way to distract the public from the slowing economy with a war.

This talk explored explanations of these various linkages with temperature and climate change, showing that the three types of cycles are all linked and start with the climate changes.  Environmental determinism is in my opinion a baseless pejorative narrative to paint a rational theory as something it is not, as racist and colonialist.  The proof of this is that human performance, economic history, and the stock market are all confirming the cool improves and heat stifles narrative.  You have to ignore those three other proofs to come up with a racist and colonialist narrative that only sounds plausible in one school of thought, imperialism, not in an interdisciplinary context.  Triangulation from at least three different directions is the standard of proof I seek in all my work on these two great theories of economics and global warming.

 

Summary

These three issues are the main issues in my research.  Empire Economics is my best presentation and a version of that was used at Telos.  With military spending the prime cause, empires decay from a lack of productivity coming from the military resources.  That in turn leads to the social decay of empires, included murder rates, health problems, and lack of social mobility.  In America it is obvious that many celebrities are now sons or daughters of other celebrities, as America has traded places in the last generation or so with Europe in terms of being a class based society. Crime and corruption is strongly correlated with military spending both internationally and within the American states, including the poor mortgage practices leading up to the Great Recession.  Crime is the easily identified exemplar of the social decay of empire concept.  The right wing thinks moral decay is bringing down America, but my work supports the opposite theory, that the self inflicted wound of wasting too much military spending at the expense of manufacturing and construction economic growth sectors causes the long term rise in crime, poor health, stagnant politics, and class divergence in America.

But the key to perfecting the long term 60 year US economic model is the 54 year Kondratiev cycle.  And the key to proving the existence of that cycle is linking up the three versions of the cycle, the natural cycle, the economic cycle, and the political war cycle.  I’ve always sensed it was absurd to consider these three cycles separately.  I’m convinced that the order of those cycles is natural, economic, then political, both by the logic of the linking mechanisms and the slightly diminishing accuracy of the proving phenomena in my 56 events chart.  As always, I’m looking for multiple proofs of concept along multidisciplinary lines of seeing past the silos of isolated thinking into the broader concept of looking at events from multiple points of view to grasp the correct essence of it all.

Link to the actual Telos Institute and Geospatial Summit powerpoint slides are here:

https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt._29_slide_5_p._2017

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Living the Creative Life

Introduction

What does it take to make a person creative?  Endless experimentation, trying new things, and varying the way one absorbs knowledge.  Aim for the top, and you might not get there, but you will at least get near to the top.  In the words of Carlos Castaneda, choose a path with a heart and follow it.  Early on, I chose the path of truth.  Math and science were logical extensions of that path.  I did not understand some things, but I would note them in my mind and sooner or later an explanation would emerge.  When some would call it black and others call it white, I looked for the underlying truth, the gray area where both were partially true in certain ways, where one fit better in certain circumstances and the other fit better in other circumstances.  Ambiguity was not to be tolerated; exploration would clear up the ambiguity eventually.  How the world worked was an endless process of discovery.  Each of the major areas of life was meant to be mastered eventually, leave no stone unturned.  I had no sense of self worth until I got a 100 in an arithmetic exam in the 3rd grade.  Later I tied for highest in the state on a Mathematics Association of America exam in high school.  So I asked for the toughest four year program at the University of Wisconsin, Electrical Engineering, and made four honor societies graduating from the 3rd ranked such program in the nation.  Following a fiancé to Oregon, I fell out of love for her and into love of that state.  Out of work, I got an MBA at Oregon State University because of low tuition and a required Econometrics course.  After a year in LifeSpring trainings I decided on a career leading to the US presidency.  Five years later, I discovered the bar chart that began Peace Economics.  I wrote Peace Economics in 1986, three years after the bar chart discovery, developing the next theory of macroeconomics in the process, with a .999 correlation of a simple sixty year model of US economics.  So I changed my goals to science and by May 1991 I had published the theory of the global warming and cooling cycle.  The world has still not beaten a path to my door, so now I’ve been marketing ever since.  I earned a doctorate in 2009, and got a Nobel Peace Prize nomination in early 2016, and wrote two Encyclopedia of War entries in October 2016.

Childhood

It began with my mother reading to me at bedtime.  Then it went into Erector Sets, Lincoln Logs, and American Bricks, and of course Building Blocks.  Then my uncle said he might become an engineer.  Then I beat my older brother and cousin at checkers, even though grandpa, a law school valedictorian and politician had taught them the game. Then there was the wonderful Time Life Mathematics book, and World Book Encyclopedias. The four of us kids would play board games together, like Monopoly and Careers.  We would play baseball and football out in the street with neighbor kids, and build fox and goose trails in the snow in winter.  In summer we would explore the local parks and arboretum, and sometimes bike five miles out in the country to catch frogs in the back of the state fish hatchery property.  Toads were found in the arboretum near the Wingra Park lagoon.  Estes rockets would sometimes parachute into the top of a tree.  In kindergarten I loved art, and in the third grade developed a lifelong love of arithmetic and mathematics.

Adolescence

Then my love of games took a leap upward with the discovery of Avalon Hill wargames at age 11.  At first I played my older brother at these games, never letting him win, and then I discovered the opponents wanted ads in the Avalon Hill General and soon played many people older than me, never losing.  For ten years I averaged 15 hours a week in wargames in the high school college age years.  I developed a specialty in World War II history by age 16, stunning my high school American history teacher in the final exam on exactly that topic. Then I won the art, science and mathematics awards in my class of 210 in my college prep Catholic high school.  I developed the philosophy of doing my homework and getting good grades, but stretching my mind with new things outside of the schoolwork in the rest of my life.

Young Adult

I had been mistaken for a priest, a lawyer, and a political science major in my twenties.  A dutiful Catholic, I went to church every Sunday until age 23, and then tried four other religions, Baha’i at age 25, Religious Science founded by Ernest Holmes who wrote the book “The Science of the Mind” about metaphysics in the late twenties, Nichiren Shushu Buddhism, the top religion of Japan, at 32 for two years of morning and evening chanting.  Then at age 36 I settled on Unitarianism.  I studied the “Teachings of Jesus” for four years of Sunday afternoon studies at the Quakers around age 50.  I ended up agreeing with Marcus Borg of the Jesus Seminar scholars that Jesus primarily opposed the domination systems of the rich and the Pharisees.  Elitism alienates those in power from the rest of us in a way that ends up self limiting them.  My twenties were very experimental years of consciousness raising.  Listening Exercises at 21, Social Liturgy Wednesdays at the Newman Center at age 23, Experimental College courses taken or taught at age 25, YMCA Singles Association age 27-29 becoming a certified group leader and elected president, 400 hours of LifeSpring trainings at age 28, and then a leap into politics at age 29 to 43 in Eugene Oregon.

Politics

My politics began with 400 meetings of events in the Community Calendar and Political Calendar at age 29, where I learned a little bit about everything in that world, from the Citizens Party and Libertarians to the Jailers Convention.  I attended all four political weekly discussion groups, Demo Forum, Labor Forum, Rubicon Society, and Republican Roundtable. I got involved in local government, state legislatures, and county, congressional, and state levels of the Democratic Party of Oregon.  I was elected or appointed delegate or chairman or executive committee at many levels of the party, including writing the National Delegate Selection plan for the state and later being elected National Convention Delegate under that plan.  I was on the Electoral College slate in 1984, and invited to the Clinton Inauguration in 1993.

Science

Social scientists and academics are a very skeptical crowd.  Peace Economics was very popular until the end of the Cold War.  Not knowing academics before my dissertation in 2009, I made a lot of mistakes and missed a lot of opportunities to accredit my work.  Doing work an order of magnitude beyond the Economists and Global Warming scientists does not sit well with the powers that be.  My in depth interdisciplinary background in nine fields essential to the development of Peace Economics left me without a peer group primed and ready to understand me.  There was so much the academic community needed to learn to catch up with me, yet I didn’t have time for several dissertations in the arcane details of several fields trapped in silo thinking.  Just as five religions helped me triangulate better to the see the real truths, so did the nine fields of math, wargaming, science, engineering, accounting, business, politics, peace economics, and global warming.  Looking at things from the overall picture is just not the same as looking as things from the bottom up.  Triangulating from a variety of fields is not the same as mastering the arcane details of any one field.  Both economics and climate change theory have huge blind spots.

Summary

Throughout this time I was guided by honesty, dislike of bullies, and the search to understand everything about how the world works.  Building a scientific model of the world was my North Star.  Endless experimentation and experiencing were my methods.  Along the way I learned to identify key facts, to take one good new understanding from every new experience, meeting, or lecture.  This gave me excellent long term memory sometimes at the sacrifice of short term memory.  It also explains how I’m better at math, science, and vocabulary, than at reading comprehension.  Thus I’m good at abstract thinking and especially good at summarizing.

Links to Resume and peer reviewed Technical Peace Economics respectively:

https://www.academia.edu/15878982/RESUME

https://www.academia.edu/23034796/TECHNICAL_Peace_Economics_8p._2014-2016

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute,                         Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017,                                       Contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

Hottest Downloads All Time

Particularly since my SAGE Encyclopedia of War Entries came out in October 2016, my international downloads from my academia.edu website have tripled.  Here are the hottest papers, mainly since then and since my Nobel Peace Prize nomination in early 2016.  USA interest has stayed about the same, but international interest has exploded.  These are listed by title first, then downloads, then views, then percentage of downloads per view.  Ranked by downloads, some long standing articles have as many downloads as the end of the list, but rank low on percentage so are not included.  These eight are the hotties that you may have missed and want to take a second look at.  They cover a good cross section of my most important work.

 

Military Economy, Direct 11, 15 pages, 54/65=83%

Here are the realities of the military economy, simply by studying the historical data looking for the obvious patterns, with a huge boost from Ruth Sivard’s bar charts.  Economists have talked themselves out of the scientific method as a physicist or engineer would understand it.  They are unfortunately convinced that a scientific analysis of the historical data can never lead to a science of economics.  Their belief system has stopped them from making the progress I easily made as an engineer.

https://www.academia.edu/31717739/Military_Economy_Direct_11_2013-2016_15_pages

 

SAGE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF WAR, 6 pages, 50/93=54%

Releasing this last October 2016 lead to a tripling of the rate of international downloads the last six months, as the combination of peer review and the Nobel Peace Prize nomination boosted my international credibility.  I am holding back some of my best work for release in a comprehensive book, as piecemeal release only benefits certain specialized publications and not the general understanding.

https://www.academia.edu/28849523/SAGE_POLITICAL_ECONOMY_OF_WAR_2016_6p

 

High Interest Releases, 12 pages, 23/36=64%

Readers have scoured the older releases for a few good gems.  Here they are, a motley lot, but with very interesting implications for understanding our world and my discoveries better.  I especially like the one on how civilizations evolve with temperature changes. https://www.academia.edu/29770996/HIGH_INTEREST_Releases_2013-2014_12p

 

History Presidents Military Economy, 3 pages, 21/34=62%

I received multiple requests for an article on this subject, but I have refrained to accumulate more interest in a book.  Nevertheless, this is a good beginning on why one advisor has recommended that I concentrate on publishing with the economic historians.  The Great Depression and World War II are especially significant. https://www.academia.edu/4044532/HISTORY_Presidents_Military_Economy_1910-2009_3p._2013

 

Framework for Academic Class, 6 pages, 20/60=33%

This outlines the basics of a class taught around this material, including subjects for about 30 class periods, my own multidisciplinary background that made this all possible, and a summary of the 13 key high correlations that define the general subject matter.

https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages_2015

 

Militarism Control Empire Social Decay, 6 pages, 18/50=36%

This is where I begin the discussion of the social decay of empire, linking the multiple lines of fracture of the society with the whole process of depleting the economic engine of the society as the first domino in a series of important dominoes that fall together.

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_6p

 

SAGE Military Keynesianism, 5 pages, 10/27=37%

This second SAGE encyclopedia of war entry has been recommended by an oil country former finance minister with one million views on his academia.edu website.  Explains the main flaw in Keynes’ theory, the assumption that non-productive work still can stimulate the economy.

https://www.academia.edu/29175791/SAGE_Military_Keynesianism_October_12_2016_5_p

 

Wars, Coldest Year, 2 pages, 8/21=38%

Looking over several of the earth cycle press releases, this one has stood out as a very interesting finding that major wars tend to break out at the end of two or three year cooling spells.  Of course, this also happens after the 27 years of plenty have creating a new world order, and, as that prosperity begins to fade tensions are at a peak.

https://www.academia.edu/5479721/WARS_Coldest_Year_Weather_Wealth_and_Wars_2p._1999

Still, I personally recommend these 9 pages for better understanding about the global warming cycle:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_course_1997_9p._2014

 

Professor Robert Reuschlein, Dr. Peace, Real Economy Institute, Nominated and vetted for the Nobel Peace Prize 2016 and 2017, Contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com Info www.realeconomy.com

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