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Demonization Fuels Military

Overall

The modern public relations industry was born producing propaganda for the First World War.  People of German heritage in America, America’s largest single ethic group, were vilified and attacked even from the pulpit in that war.  Called “Huns” scary depictions were on many a poster, and Senators like Wisconsin’s Fighting Bob La Follette were ridiculed for opposing entry into that war.  Enemies need to be created and exaggerated to urge people to fight in wars.  “Us versus Them” dualisms succeed only with depersonalization of the Other.  The opposite of religious teachings of empathy, the ultimate religion, nationalism, encourages us to see the worst in others.  This attitude is a dangerous thing when widely held for a long period of time, as in the Cold War.  The usual 2% with deviant tendencies, criminal tendencies, can then more easily perpetrate crimes without conscience.  If they have the training, this can lead to extreme events.  If all you have is a hammer, then the world tends to look like nails.  It is easier to commit crime against another person if you can compartmentalize and consider your victim a depersonalized “other.”

Civil Rights

When militarism becomes widespread and accepted, not only enemies are created.  Any people that are different from the dominant groups may more easily experience some of the alienation and stereotyping that goes with racism, sexism, heterosexism, and enthno-centricity.  Other-ism, or as Robert Fuller calls it “rankism,” comes from treating any group of humans with less dignity.  The thinking becomes, “I outrank you because my group outranks your group.”  This false sense of superiority does not recognize the humble concept “but for the grace of God, there go I.”  The violence and fighting were much worse on the Japanese front than on the German front in World War Two, probably in part due to racism.  In Vietnam the enemy were called “gooks” and in Iraq they were called “hagi’s” with perhaps some racism.  A century ago, marrying outside your race was illegal in parts of America.  Sunday morning at church is considered the most segregated hour of the week in America.  Even the term “hour” shows some segregation as many a black religious service lasts for two or three hours.

Measuring Demonization

A good proxy for the strength of demonization in a society is the percent of the economy going to military spending.  When people compile lists like the fourteen attributes of fascism, about eight of these attributes reflect militarism and demonization as well.  Things like the health and stratification of society are also adversely affected by militarism.  Paradoxes also abound, such as how a socialist government-dependent structure like the military “protected” the rest of us from socialist communism during the Cold War.  Likewise, the military can have high standards and develop high esprit de corps as a functioning unit.  None-the-less the ills of militarism will still tend to appear in a militarized society.  Judging people is inherent in the military, and judgement is considered a vice.

Voluntary Military

The military draft was eliminated in America in 1972 because the poor did not have the resources to avoid the draft, with the result that about one third of the deaths of American soldiers in Vietnam were black even though blacks only represented about ten percent of the society back then.  The modern volunteer army now often tends to consist of many rural white people, another major community in America that is poor.  There is a tendency for racism and religious fundamentalism to persist in this group, with less contact with the diversity of cosmopolitan cities.  The American base in Okinawa Japan is very controversial over there because of the high level of rapes of Japanese women.  The Japanese constitution normally allows local areas to have their way, but the national government does not allow Okinawa to kick the American base out of their territory, despite plebiscites.

Crime and the Military

Two international and one interregional US studies in the seventies, eighties, and nineties, show a strong correlation (R=.996) between crime or murder and long term average military spending.  This association seems to have three foundations.  First is the low manufacturing productivity growth with high military spending (R=-.997).  Second is the compartmentalized thinking coming from applications of the enemy concept leading to a lack of empathy for victims of crimes by the 2% prone to such deviant thinking.  Third is the direct relationship between members of the military and former members of the military in things like high crime around military bases and many mass murderers being former veterans or coming from veteran families.  Please understand that this is not an indictment of many fine citizens with military careers, only the fringe 2% including some suffering from the effects of war.  Veterans coming home from wars often suffer high divorce rates, suicide rates, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), including many hundreds of thousands eligible for disability payments from recent wars.

Jesus and Empire

From a close study of the gospels over four years of Sunday afternoons and other sources, I have concluded leader Marcus Borg of the Jesus Seminar group was basically right about certain things.  He concludes that the main theme of Jesus was opposition to the domination syndrome.  That is similar to the concern about rankism of Robert Fuller. When we separate ourselves into various groups we tend to cut ourselves off from the full power and enjoyment of treating all people equally.  Taking advantage of others because of rank and privilege, race, sex, nationality, and even family, leads us ever so slightly down the paths of personal alienation and demonizing of others.  Some feel that taking the Christian religion away from the “love your enemies” standard into “just war” theory was a poor way to reconcile Christianity with the Roman Empire.

For the complete text of my “Jesus and Empire” sermon:

https://www.academia.edu/9979093/JESUS_and_Empire_12-4-05_4_p._2005

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, April 8), “Demonization Fuels Military”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Demonization-Fuels-Military,2018156110.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Reduce Military War System

Overall

The Peace Economics theory requires a whole new way of looking at national defense and national security.  The huge finding that military spending is essentially a non-productive loss of key resources normally used to increase the size of the economic growth rate means that excessive military spending can prevent a nation from keeping up vital economic strength.  Economic strength is more important to national defense and national security than military strength in the long run.  But what does that mean?  There are two key approaches.

Two Time Frames

When offense exceeds defense, as in nuclear war, quick reaction is urgent.  But because of mutually assured destruction, avoidance is the only way to really survive.  Short term military strength is necessary up to a point.  In more conventional warfare, quick success is unlikely unless one side is more than twice as strong as the other side.  There are four clear cases of the “twice as strong” economically being decisive in the World Wars.  When both sides are more equal stalemate is likely until and unless one mobilizes overwhelming forces against the other.  Then the initial military forces are not as crucial as the economic strength comparison.

How Often Wars Happen

United States, European, and Roman history is a good argument for the 54 year cycle in major war history.  There are many wars all the time, but matchups between the top two economies in an area tend to peak every 54 years.  These are the wars a national defense best needs to be prepared for, hence a long term “build the economy” strategy best prepares a nation for this point in time, with a smaller well trained military core kept going between major war events,  In this 54 year cycle, tester lopsided wars tend to happen about 18 years before the major war in America, and 15 years before the major war in Europe.

Size of Military

The larger the military, the more likely it will be used.  A large military will coopt large portions of the military political economy.  Justifications for a large military will be developed to of the maintain this large size.  War is the ultimate justification and wars will go on and on out of fear of losing, and continued funding for a war is often justified out of support for the troops.

Success in Prior Wars  

Low cost paid and success in prior wars encourages a forward leaning posture in foreign affairs.  For example, the lower the percentage of a major nation’s population dying in the last major war made America most aggressive in the early Cold War followed by Britain and then France.  For example, a bad experience in the thirty years war ending in 1648 lead to Swedish neutrality ever since.  Switzerland.s last war in 1815 was in the Napoleonic Era of mass draftee armies. The invention of the military draft lead to Europe missing a major war in the 1860s until World War One in 1914.  Joshua Goldstein’s 1986 study of European wars since 1500 shows a 50 year cycle of major wars with about 1.5% population loss.  After missing that 1860s war, war came back worse than ever with a 5% population loss in each World War.

Role of the CIA Covert Operations

Critics of America’s Covert Operations cite a long history of mistakes and policies favoring commercial interests over democratic interests.  Blowback, the tendency of such operations to boomerang on America, is perhaps best indicated by Iran.  Covert operations seem to represent over-the-top efforts that wittingly or unwittingly help perpetuate the war system.  Previous mistakes often lead to future excuses for wars.

Consequences of the War System

Social decay, crime, and especially murders are all consequences of militarism and the war system, the empire system.  Findings show that murder rates follow military spending rates among the larger developed nations.  The million murders in America in the thirty years after John Lennon’s death 12-8-80 could have been cut in half if military spending had been cut in half.  That would have saved 500,000 lives.  Indeed, something like that did happen halfway through that thirty year period, as murder rates were cut in half one decade after the Cold War ended in 1991, and US military economy rates were cut in half by the year 2000.

Defining National Security

Keeping a narrow definition of national security defined around results wars, leaves out the large number of lives that can be saved by avoiding 15,000 domestic US murders, consequences of lack of health care (35,000 deaths) and consequences of income inequality and poverty.  Excessive militarism increases murders, health care deaths, and inequality deaths vastly in excess of the 10,000 US soldiers and civilians lost in the war on terror the last 20 years.  Stifling the American dream of income increases for middle class Americans since the seventies is the deepest consequence of the de-industrialization caused by empire in American history.

For a detailed model of optimal military spending levels for a major power:

https://www.academia.edu/4475604/DEFENSE_STRATEGY_Chapter_Peace_Economics_7_p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, April 2), “Reduce Military War System”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Reduce-Military-War-System,2018155833.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Gun Control Students March

Movements Return on 54 Year Cycle

Millions rallied around the nation (some globally) against gun violence against schools and citizens yesterday.  Estimates of 800,000 mostly students in Washington DC March 24, 2018 compare favorably with the 1,000,000 mostly women on January 21, 2017.  These enormous rallies come 54 and 55 years after the civil rights march of August 23, 1963, with a then record 300,000 crowd.  Back then we had the great movements for civil rights, against the Vietnam War, followed by women’s and environmental rights several years after the first two.  Now we have Black Lives Matter, the Women’s counter-inaugural protest, and the Parkland Students against school mass murders.  Then a landslide election in 1964 brought in the Great Society reforms and programs, now a blue wave election in 2018, 54 years later, threatens to turn around congress 180 degrees in philosophy.  Democrats needing 23 seats to regain the majority, may gain over a hundred seats if the recent Pennsylvania special election is indicative.  It is remarkable that this repetition occurs at the same long cycle time with similar economic prosperity.

Advanced Empire Decay

Seventy Years of hollowing out the manufacturing sector to apply similar resources of capital, research, and people to military spending have weakened the US industrial economy largely replaced by the financial services economy.  Profits from the financial services industry have increased to nine times their share of the US economy in the forty years since the seventies.  Just as the New Deal momentum was in its last hurrah back then, now the Reagan conservative revolution is looking at its imminent demise.  Then the American empire was at its peak under Kennedy while now the American empire will have trouble recovering from Trump.  Ever since 1945 the memory of pre-empire Roosevelt America remained strong for many Americans until after the 1980 Reagan election.  Now many Americans do not remember what America used to be.  Prior to 1980 all Americans shared prosperity equally, with all classes doubling their income in those 35 post war years.  Now Americans in the bottom 99% have remained without meaningful wage increases while the top 1% has seen their income more than quadruple.  Thanks to the FOX News propaganda channel since 1996 and Rush Limbaugh since 1988, Americans have been uniquely misinformed about politics.  Thus despite his documented record of 2000 lies in his first year in office, Trump continues the lying, repeated by FOX news and his 24 million Twitter followers and 16 million Facebook followers, to hold on to his 35% base while turning off everyone else.  Polls show that 12% believe they are in the top 1% in income, while another 23% believe they will be in the top 1% someday.  These deluded and aspiring groups supplement the actual 1% to make up the essence of the 35% Trump Republican base.  The key Reagan deception was to sell America on his 25% tax cut plan that in fact gave a 60% tax cut to the top 1% while giving a mere 15% tax cut for the middle class.  This same four to one ratio of benefits continues in the Trump tax “reform” plan.  But thanks to the 2011 “occupy” movement, Americans now know they are being had.  They also know that 24,000 would lose their health care under the Trump Republican proposals that failed last year.  Nevertheless, 13,000 will lose their health care coverage due to the partial repeal slipped into the tax bill, with an estimated 10% increase in premiums due to that change.

Murder Rates Match Military Spending Rates

Steve Mills, who teaches medicine at the University of Minnesota, has shown that households that have a gun in the house are five times as likely to be shot to death as those in households without firearms.  My own findings show that most of the seven largest economy nations correlate strongly between military spending and murder rates, with a near perfect correlation as high as 0.996 during the last twenty years of the Cold War.  There is probably a lot of overlap between gun holding households and veterans.  One friend of mine once read a book about mass murderers and told me that they all had military backgrounds, and there are few exceptions to that pattern today.  Murder and crime rates are higher around military bases, and I learned at the 1999 hundredth anniversary Hague Peace Conference that Okinawa Japan women are often raped by US soldiers so much that the national government had to overrule the local government to keep the US base there.  Japan is a very low military low crime country.  In the fifties, the US learned how to train soldiers to kill, because over 70% of troops never fire their guns in combat in wars including World War Two, because humans are so naturally horrified about killing another human being.  78% of combat deaths in that war were due to artillery, a safely out of sight, out of mind, way to kill others.

Three Reasons Why Military and Murder are Related

There are three reasons why murder rates and military spending rates are so closely aligned.  First is the military drain on the economy, which leads to more desperate and crime prone people.  Second is the de-personalization of others that comes with dividing the world into friends and enemies.  Among the usual 2% of us with deviant behavior, this makes it easier to commit a crime against others.  If we can easily de-personalize our victims, we can then more easily commit crimes against them.  Meetings between criminals and their victims in prison therapy are often very troubling to the criminal when they see for the first time the consequences of their actions first hand in the eyes of the victims.  Third is the direct impact of training millions of people how to kill in wars.  When you have such training it is easier to escalate a fist fight in a bar into a homicide.  Just as in Shakespeare’s play MacBeth, murder is easier and easier after the first very difficult murder decision.

Guns or the Military

Guns are the easier to see as the “cause” of the mass murder problem.  Other nations have far fewer gun murders, and one comparison of murders between Canada and the US shows similar amounts of other categories of murders per capita, similar knifings, poisonings, and strangling’s, and others, while showing a big drop in gun murders.  Britain has reduced guns to the point that it has 60% less murders than would be suggested by its military rate.  But that is true also for France, Virginia, and New England, a four-some that correlate 93%, but at 60% lower than for US, Germany, Sweden, Italy, and Japan.  But this may be related to comparing 150 year old societies with 400 year old societies.  Is it the guns or the level of maturation of the society that reduces crime rates?  Crime rates in the US went down after the 1991 end of the Cold War to half their rates, just as military spending went down also in the nineties.  Some would ascribe this to abortion being legal since 1973, 18 years before 1991, but that would not explain the similar drop in crime in Western Europe.  German homicides have dropped 40% since 2000 while the US homicide rate has dropped only 20% thanks to the wars and military escalation.

For the additional “Crime and the Military” papers and graph on my academia.edu website:

https://www.academia.edu/4862977/CRIME_and_the_Military_1989-1999_3p._1999

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 26), “Gun Control Students March”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Gun-Control-Students-March,2018155580.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Constitutional Costs of War

Introduction

In the US constitution the power to declare war is reserved to Congress.  Congress is considered superior to the executive in that it is defined in Article One while the Executive is defined in Article Two.  But there has been no declaration of war since World War Two.  Since World War Two the congress has let the executive choose our wars.  This has been referred to as the Imperial Presidency.  Since World War Two America has acted more as an empire than a republic.

This modern transformation of America resembles what happened to the Roman Republic as the institution of Emperor dominated the Senate as the Roman Republic became the Roman Empire.  Today we call that process America becoming the world’s policeman.

The founding persons were well aware of the dangers of too much militarism.  The father of the constitution, James Madison, deliberately under funded the War of 1812, because he knew that excessive militarism inevitably leads to a loss of civil liberties.  George Washington warned us of the dangers of excessive foreign entanglements.

The cost of war and empire is enormous, starting with the diversion of key resources away from the pursuit of happiness and economic productivity to the pursuit of death and destruction.  Jefferson’s life liberty and the pursuit of happiness are all jeopardized by the pursuit of endless war, such as the 186 incursions into Latin America during the twentieth century and the extension of the Monroe Doctrine worldwide with the Iraq War in 2003.

Reporters Without Borders gives America a low rating, especially during the Iraq War, because one of the liberties that suffers during war is the free press.  Censorship runs higher during wartime.  Jefferson has said he would rather have a free press than the right to vote.  His reasoning was that with a free press the right to vote is more likely to come, while the right to vote can be meaningless in a controlled press society.

Habeas Corpus was a right taken away during the American Civil War by Lincoln and in modern times with the prisoners in Guantanamo, Cuba, during the wars against terrorists.

US Constitution System of Checks and Balances

  • Article I, Section 8: “Congress shall have the power to declare war.”
  • Alexander Hamilton in Federalist Papers: President is to be Commander in Chief.
  • Hamilton: Congress declares wars, raises and regulates fleets and armies.
  • Article II: President leads foreign policy.

Founding Figures (Rule of Law vs Rule of One)  

George Washington warns us of the dangers of foreign entanglements and standing armies.  James Madison engaged in War of 1812 frugally to avoid the loss of civil liberties.  Thomas Jefferson would prefer a free press over elections.  (With a free press elections are possible, without a free press elections are meaningless.)

Imperial Presidency 

Rome started out as a Republic with a powerful Senate, but ended as an Empire ruled by an Emperor.  America started out as a Republic but with WWII changed to the Imperial Presidency.  Presidential powers in Foreign Policy today often overextend into war starting, with the Congress an after-thought.  Empire, Military Spending, Feudalism, Power, Control, Violence, Corruption, all have lots in common.

Civil Liberties and War      

Historical Wartime Abuse examples:  1798 Sedition Act, 1846 Spot Act, Habeus Corpus lost in Civil War, Japanese internment in WWII, Cold War controlled press, 1964 Gulf of Tonkin.

Perpetual War (Empire):  1947 National Security Act creates CIA with covert operations and media control Operation Mockingbird; Monroe Doctrine with 186 incursions in Latin America in the 20th Century;  Iraq War:  worldwide Monroe Doctrine; Terror War, widespread telephone and email invasion of privacy as Homeland Security budget quadruples in from 2002 to 2006 and grows to match that of the CIA with present estimate of $80 billion each.

Military Controlled Government

Regional Military Economics R=.97No major component of the US federal budget is extremely unequally and politically distributed among the 50 states than military spending.  This gives overwhelming political clout to those in charge of the military budget, especially presidents, congressional leaders, and committee chairpersons.  Those regions and states that get more or less than their pro rata (tax load) share of the military budget gain or lose economically & politically accordingly.  Military spending depletes the productive economy and redistributes to the regional “warfare” economy:  creates “middle class” type welfare-like program.

“How Democracies Die” Steven Levitsky, Daniel Ziblatt, 2018.

Trump has four authoritarian aspects:  Attacking the Press (and the courts), threatening Election Opponent “Lock Her Up”, Anti-immigrants,  Condoning violence at rallies.  Fortune 500 founders are 40% offspring of immigrants, like Steve Jobs whose parents were from Syria.  Ben Franklin tells lady on street that the constitutional convention gave us a “republic, if you can keep it”.

14 Characteristics of Fascism Dr. Lawrence Britt (5-28-03 Rense.com):

  1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism, 2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights, 3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause, 4. Supremacy of the Military, 5. Rampant Sexism, 6. Controlled Mass Media (40 million tweet and facebook followers plus FOX news for Trump), 7. Obsession with National Security, 8. Religion and Government are Intertwined, 9. Corporate Power is Protected, 10. Labor Power is Suppressed, 11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts (climate hoax), 12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment, 13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption, 14. Fraudulent Elections.

World Press Freedom, Reporters Without Borders: 

(2011-12 Index: G8 countries); 10) Canada, 16) Germany, 22) Japan, 28) United Kingdom, 38) France, 43) United States, 57) United States (extra-territorial), 61) Italy, 142) Russia.

(2017 Index: G8 countries); 16) Germany, 22) Canada, 39) France, 40) United Kingdom, 43) United States, 52) Italy, 72) Japan, 148) Russia.  Both of these lists are roughly in order of the national military percentage of the economy, except that Italy is low due to Berlusconi being both owner of the media and the government, and Japan in 2017 in the midst of a constitutional crisis over changing the constitution to grow the military.

Banking and the Military    

American corporate profits went from 7% to 12% of GDP in the last forty years.  Financial profit share went from 6% to 30%.  Financial profits GDP has gone from 0.4% to 3.6% of GDP, a nine-fold increase overall.  The industrial triangle book of Gordon Adams showed that major banks and major defense contractors had corporate interlocks of 15% between just those two industries, the same percent for all interlocks in other companies.

Empire “Opportunity Cost”           

Military Spending is both wasted manufacturing & lost capital investment. Military Spending takes away from the productive stream of the economy key research and capital resources.  Such resources normally keep manufacturing competitive producing new products constantly being tested by the consumer and business marketplaces.  Military Spending converts such resources to a national service that does not enhance the economy.  90% of military spending is for this national service.  A small part of the 10% spent on research returns as civilian spinoffs.  Military Spending is like a junk food diet, filling but not nourishing, Fat & Carbs without Protein to build muscles.

Military Spending National Economics     

The following four correlations studies best illustrate the nonproductive nature of military spending:  R=-.997 Manufacturing Productivity (G7+Sweden, Denmark)(1960-1978, Sivard Reuschlein);  R=-.993 Capital Investment (NATO 4+Sweden)(1960-1979, Sivard Reuschlein); R=.999 Productivity (3+2 factor) US Model (1920-1996, Reuschlein); R=-.97 Economic Growth vs Net Military Burden (1941-1948 World War II, Reuschlein)

Crime, Murder and the Military    

Using combined data from 1973-75, 1984, 1991 always indexed against the US, I was able to put all these countries on one graph.  Focusing on the G7, leaving outliers Britain and France out, the correlation was R= .996.  Later I noted that Britain and France correlated well (R= .93) with New England and Virginia, the four hundred year old mature societies.  Japan, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the United States are all about 150 year-old societies.  The older countries and colonies were at 40% crime levels relative to their military spending compared to the younger societies.

Social Correlations with Military Spending         

In rank order from high to low, here are some of the leading developed world international social factor correlations with military spending, largely from the 2010 book “Spirit Level”:  Social Class Mobility R= -.923; Factory Productivity R= -.868, Prisoners R= .852, Teen Births R= .818, Homicides R= .803, Work Hours R= .794, Mental Illness R= .789, Income Inequality R= .765, Press Freedom R= -.763, Obesity R= .753, Infant Mortality R= .679, Unsustainability R= .548, Recycling R= -.482.

Spirit Level Comparison     

Health & Social Problems index correlates -0.878 with military and -0.875 with inequality.

The above index from the Spirit Level book does a better job of proving the empire theory over the income inequality theoryThese next 6 robust correlations are from the components of the “Spirit Level” health and social problems index above:  showing the military economy correlation first and the inequality correlation second, the strongest six correlations are:  for reduced social mobility .923 and .934, for increased prisoners .852 and .658, for increased teen births .852 and .735, for increased homicides .800 and .571, for increased mental illness .789 and .737, and for increased obesity .753 and .524.  Overall the military is a much stronger average of .823 over .693.  The military and inequality factors are themselves strongly correlated at .765.  Based on this I would strongly suggest empire levels of military spending are a better explanation than just growing income inequality for all these disastrous social statistics.

Current History, Great Recession   

Bush military buildup is similar to the Reagan military buildup.  One difference is the much smaller tax cut under Bush (Less Deficit Lift).  Repeal of Glass-Stiegel made crash worse under Bush (Derivatives grew 10 times since repeal).  Real Estate problems developed under both military buildups.  The role of the military buildup is almost completely ignored.  I publicly predicted a recession in January 2007, predicting disaster for the $70 billion Iraq Surge.  It takes about six months to deploy troops in Iraq, and sure enough, the unemployment rate started going up in July 2007 and worsened continuously for two years.  The Financial collapse made conditions worse, but the military buildup started the downhill slide which exposed the weaknesses of the financial structure.  The 2008 military budget is twice the increase of years before and after.  The four economic quarters of the fiscal year 2008 are the four steepest drops in economic growth rate in recent memory.

Summary

Empires decline because they divert economic achievement resources to power projection.  Military spending and manufacturing capital draw from a common resource pool so as one increases the other decreases.  Low military high growth societies incentivize new product creation and achievement.  High military spending low growth societies incentivize market share nitpicking & control.  High Military Spending States give us 80% of US key political leaders, especially presidents, including all eleven Cold War elections.

Solutions        

There will be no recovery from the collapsing nature of empire until and unless the military is reduced.  The US industrial Midwest swing states that decide presidential elections will all benefit greatly from reduced military.  Even the military itself will benefit from faster future growth after the initial reduction.  All Great Lakes states are half the national average in military spending per capita and will benefit the most from the initial military reduction.  The parasitic mostly coastal Financial and Military industries can’t be allowed to kill the inland industrial “goose that laid the golden egg.”

For original eight per page power point slides with charts and graphs at Telos 2018 Conference:

https://www.academia.edu/s/3ec205248a/constitutional-implications-of-war

 

Constitutional Theory as Cultural Problem: Global Perspectives  TELOS February 17, 2018, 3pm China House, “Constitutional Implications of War”  Professor Robert Reuschlein, EE, CPA, MBA, Ed.D., Real Economy Institute, www.realeconomy.com, bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 4), “Constitutional Cost of War”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Constitutional-Cost-of-War,2018154802.aspx

 

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Terrorist Cost to Society

Goal of Terrorists: Raising the Cost to Society, Asymmetric Warfare Conference, TELOS January 14, 2017 Professor Robert Reuschlein, EE, CPA, MBA, Ed.D. Real Economy Institute, www.realeconomy.com bobreuschlein@gmail.com

“Goal of Terrorists:  Raising the Cost to Society”

by Professor Robert Reuschlein

ABSTRACT

Asymmetric Warfare raises the cost to society of warfare. Those in the military industrial complex believe that warfare can enhance themselves and their society. This belief led to the Iraq War. Those employing asymmetric warfare believe they can punish the military society’s population enough to make them give up. This was the strategy that won the Vietnam War. The asymmetric warrior (aka “terrorist”) believes a militaristic society will implode when enough pressure is put on them. These so- called terrorists are even more right than they realize. The eight years of the Reagan Military Buildup tripled the national debt (quadrupling if you add in the 4 Bush years).  The eight years of the second Bush military buildup wars led to the Great Recession, particularly the Iraq $66 billion surge in fiscal year 2008. Blowback was immediate and internal, and unemployment escalated for two years from July 2007 to October 2009. This is exactly what Osama Bin Laden wanted out of the Western response to his provocations, saying in an alleged 2005 speech: “So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy.” In my empire economics speech, I will outline the true cost of militarization on America, depleting our capital and research resources leading to economic and social decay, including high crime. Empire stagnation includes the stagnation of the political process in America. Militarization lead to the direct depletion of the manufacturing sector even faster than the more obvious and visible trade treaty losses of factories. In the decade after 2001 terrorism has quadrupled. Goading us into attack has been a goal of the terrorists.

Alleged Osama Bin Ladin 2004 Speech Goals

BANKRUPTCY  “The Mujahideen bled Russia for ten years, until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat. So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy.”

PRIVATE COMPANIES  “Leaders cause America to suffer human, economic, and political  losses without their achieving for it anything of note other than some benefits for their private companies”

POLITICS  “Resemblance it bears to the regimes in our countries, half of which are ruled by the military and the other half which are ruled by the sons of kings and presidents.”

Empire “Opportunity Cost”

Military Spending is both wasted manufacturing & lost capital investment. Military Spending takes away from the productive stream of the economy key research and capital resources.

Such resources normally keep manufacturing competitive producing new products constantly being tested by the consumer and business marketplaces.  Military Spending converts such resources to a national service that does not enhance the economy.  90% of military spending is for this national service.  A small part of the 10% spent on research returns as civilian spinoffs.

Military Spending is like a junk food diet, filling but not nourishing, Fat & Carbs without Protein to build muscles.

Military Spending National Economics

The following four correlations from studies best illustrate the nonproductive nature of military spending:

R=-.997 Manufacturing Productivity (G7+Sweden, Denmark)(1960-1978, Sivard Reuschlein)

R=-.993 Capital Investment (NATO 4+Sweden)(1960-1979, Sivard Reuschlein)

R=.999 Productivity (3+2 factor) US Model (1920-1996, Reuschlein)

R=-.97 Economic Growth vs Net Military Burden (1941-1948 World War II, Reuschlein)

Evidence Military Hurts and Deficit Helps Economy

The four proofs on the prior slide show:

That by R the odds favor 1 billion to 1 that military spending hurts the economy

That by R2 the odds favor 100 million to 1 that military spending hurts the economy

By the R=.999 model, and WWII R=-.97, only deficit spending offsets the negative impact of military spending in short run.

Military Spending Regional Economics R=.97

  • No major component of US federal budget is more unequally and politically distributed among the 50 states than military
  • This gives overwhelming political clout to those in charge of the military budget, especially presidents and congressional
  • Those regions and states that get more or less than their pro rata (tax load) share of the military budget gain or lose economically &
  • Military spending depletes the productive economy and redistributes to the regional “warfare” economy: “middle class” welfare

Where Does Socio-Economic Decay Come From?

Low military spending leads to a rich and prosperous society with greater equity.

High military spending leads to reduced manufacturing & capital investment, which leads to economic decline, social decay, and high income inequality.

I will contrast the economic model of two societies: the emerging growth society and the stagnant empire society to show the forces of stagnation. These forces have favor “sideways” occupations over growth, and caused health & crime problems.

Crime, Murder and the Military

Using combined data from 1973-75, 1984, 1991 always indexed against the US, I was able to put all these countries on one graph.  Focusing on the G7, leaving outliers Britain and France out, the correlation was R= .996.  Later I noted that Britain and France correlated well (R= .93) with New England and Virginia, the four hundred year old mature societies.  Japan, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the United States are all about 150 year-old societies.  The older countries and colonies were at 40% crime levels relative to their military spending compared to the younger societies.

Social Correlations with Military Spending

In rank order from high to low, here are some of the leading developed world international social factor correlations with military spending, largely from the 2010 book “Spirit Level”:  Social Class Mobility R= -.923; Factory Productivity R= -.868, Prisoners R= .852, Teen Births R= .818, Homicides R= .803, Work Hours R= .794, Mental Illness R= .789, Income Inequality R= .765, Press Freedom R= -.763, Obesity R= .753, Infant Mortality R= .679, Unsustainability R= .548, Recycling R= -.482.

Economic “Pie” Model

In the control/empire stagnant society when a person earns a bigger share of the pie, someone else is more likely to lose and become unemployed or homeless (left out).

In the achievement/growing society, when someone earns a bigger share of the pie, it doesn’t usually hurt others because it is from the ring of growth, not from the ring of basic needs. Also, to achieve the new frontier of growth, all people’s ideas are needed and valued more, so inequality is lessened.

Characteristics of Empire Versus Emerging Societies

An Empire Society features Power and Control, growth is Stagnant and Sideways, with heavy Lawyering to mend fences and a strong Service sector.  The empire society is Win Lose with a lot of rich poor inequality.  Militaristic sports dominate like American Football with language about the bomb, blitzing, and in the trenches.  Drug Use, Crime Debt and lotteries will proliferate in an effort to mitigate the pain of chronic underachieving.

An emerging great power will feature Achievement and Growth, moving Forward, lots of Engineering and Manufacturing.  The nature of the emerging society is more equal and Win Win.  Baseball was the national sport in emerging low military America and post World War II low military Japan with the non-militaristic goal of reaching home plate. Success, Satisfaction Saving are other hallmarks,

Summary

Empires decline because they divert economic achievement resources to power projection.  Military spending and manufacturing capital draw from a common resource pool so as one increases the other decreases.  Low military high growth societies incentivize new product creation and achievement.  High military spending low growth societies incentivize market share nitpicking & control.  High Military Spending States give us 80% of US key political leaders, especially presidents.

Banking and the Military

American corporate profits went from 7% to 12% of GDP in the last forty years.  Financial profit share went from 6% to 30%.  Financial profits GDP has gone from 0.4% to 3.6% of GDP, a nine-fold increase overall.  The industrial triangle book of Gordon Adams showed that major banks and major defense contractors had corporate interlocks of 15% between just those two industries, the same percent for ALL interlocks in other companies.

Economic Pattern of War

The high growth period creates a new world peck order of nations and these two wars test that new peck order.  Wealth is maximized at the end of the period, when the major war occurs.  The second largest war happens half way through the high economic growth period. The current high growth period is 1994-2021.  Opponent is often a small power.  Examples:  Iraq 2003, Korea1950, Spain1898, Mexico1846.

The largest war happens at the end of the high growth period just as wealth peaks and three years into the low growth period with the last cooling. Opponents are usually #1 power vs #2 power.  China 2025? Vietnam (Russia proxy) 1965, Germany 1917, South 1861, Britain 1812

Current History, Great Recession

Bush military buildup is similar to the Reagan military buildup.  One difference is the much smaller tax cut under Bush (Less Deficit Lift).  Repeal of Glass-Stiegel made crash worse under Bush (Derivatives grew 10 times since repeal).  Real Estate problems developed under both military buildups.  The role of the military buildup is almost completely ignored.  I publicly predicted a recession in January 2007, predicting disaster for the $70 billion Iraq Surge.  It takes about six months to deploy troops in Iraq, and sure enough, the unemployment rate started going up in July 2007 and worsened continuously for two years.  The Financial collapse made conditions worse, but the military buildup started the downhill slide which exposed the weaknesses of the financial structure.  The 2008 military budget is twice the increase of years before and after.

 

Solutions

There will be no recovery from the collapsing nature of empire until the military is reduced.

The US industrial Midwest swing states that decide presidential elections will all benefit greatly from reduced military.  The PARASITIC Financial and Military industries can’t be allowed to kill the industrial “goose that laid the golden egg.”

For original power point with charts and graphs at Telos 2017 Conference:

https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics 29_slide_5p._2017

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, February 25), “Terrorist Cost to Society” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Terrorist-Cost-to-Society,2018154542.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and Given Odds for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize November 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Trump Russia Fire and Fury

Trump Russian Timeline

The timeline of events and important facts of the Trump Russia story are often mentioned only once while the media overemphasize other facts.  This account features those lesser known facts and assumes many of the media redundant facts.  The British spy dossier points out that Russia tries to cultivate Western businesspeople and had been doing so with Trump for at least five years by 2016.  That implies since 2011, two years prior to the Trump Miss Universe selection in Moscow 2013.  Then in April May 2015 the CIA noticed an unusually large amount of communication between Trump Tower and Russia before the June 2015 announcement of the Trump presidential run.  Rachel Maddow noted on her show that Trump signed a letter of intent to build a Trump Tower in Moscow the morning of the third Republican presidential debate in October 2015.  Rachel further noted that Trump was unusually quiet in that debate.

The new buzzword is that Trump is a transactional person with no permanent values, always the business deal maker.  Truth means nothing to him as he reaches 2000 lies in his first year in office.  So, when seasoned politicals would have called the FBI when Russians reached out to his campaign, his operatives all acted opportunistically instead.  So, when Papadopoulos reached out to the Russians shortly after the March DNC hackings, he quickly reported to Sam Clovis in April 2016, campaign co-chair, and then leaked the connection to the Australian British ambassador in May.  That escalated to the famous June 9th meeting with Donald Trump jr., Paul Manafort, and Jared Kushner and a Russian delegation of five led by a lawyer.  Two days before Donald Trump sr. promised a new dirt on Hillary in a major speech soon.  Experts suggest there is no way Don jr. would not have immediately told Don sr. because that’s the way they operate.  The quid pro quo of it all is the view of Russia by Trump as a vast market to reach, rather than a traditional enemy of the USA.  Then he lets Manafort, who successfully managed a pro-Russian presidential campaign in Ukraine, move to take arming the Ukrainians out of the Republican Platform.  Much later, when the senate votes 98-2 for Russian sanctions on July 27, 2017, Trump signs the bill but does nothing to implement it.

The right-wing spin machine has been trying to blame that British former spy dossier for the FBI counterintelligence investigation begun in July 2016.  That is incorrect; a foreign policy advisor from the Trump campaign leaked the story over drinks with the Australian ambassador to Britain in May 2016, four weeks after his April visit to Russia where he learned of the March 2016 Russian hacking.  That Australian ambassador then reported to the US about the Russian hack of Hillary campaign related emails from the DNC.  So, at that point it was known that the Russians had illegally hacked the emails for the express purpose of helping the Trump campaign.  So, when Trump suggested in July 2016 that the Wikileaks material might have come from a 400-pound man living in his parents’ basement in Ohio, that was a red herring lie.  Donald Trump junior was in constant contact with WikiLeaks and knew full well the Russian source of those emails.  Diane Feinstein has clobbered the anti-Mueller anti-FBI anti-Hillary attempt to obstruct or distract justice by the House and Senate Republicans, especially Devin Nunes and Jim Jordan in the House.  Her courage releasing the Fusion GPS transcript of testimony about the Dossier explodes the Republican false narrative about those events.

Jared Kushner oversaw the Trump ground campaign.  Shortly after he met with the Russian ambassador in September, in early October 2016 massive file transfers occurred between Trump Tower New York and the Russian money laundering Deutsche Bank.  This is probably the source of necessary voter microtargeting data needed for the fake news bots used by Russia to help carry swing key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Kushner was renegotiating a loan with that same bank at that same time, but the volume of data for that would be much less.  Both Donald Trump and Jared Kushner bank there as the bank recently settled a $10 billion Russian money laundering fine.  Together with Republican voter suppression laws and vote total suppression in Democratic areas this was enough to swing the election by 70,000 votes in those three states, despite Hillary’s three million popular vote majority nationwide.  For example, an estimated 200,000 voters in Wisconsin were disenfranchised by the new voter ID law there, and 85,000 people from mainly Democratic areas in Michigan mysteriously did not vote for president.

“Fire and Fury” Fallout by Michael Wolff

The new book shows the universal opinion of Trump staff that Trump is not qualified for the job and not very intelligent.  However, other recent Republican presidents since Nixon are estimated to have only average intelligence.  Still the low opinion of staff is not there for Ford Reagan and the Bushes like it appears to be for Trump.  Bannon’s humiliation may end up working for Trump as political figures need to be either feared or loved to succeed, and this episode shows Trump should be feared.

Summary

Trump wants to do business with Russia and admires other authoritarian figures like Putin in Russia and Erdogan in Turkey.  He is a figure of resistance against the browning of America.  He does not understand the essentials of democracy like checks and balances, a free press, and an independent judiciary.  He resists the cold war bureaucracy of the modern military industrial complex while championing the cause of the military.  He supports military strength while resisting foreign policy orthodoxy.  These impulses have driven him into the arms of Putin the master spy manipulator and the current cooperation with Russia to get elected and to make deals around the world.  This puts him squarely in the sights of the obstruction of justice problem and possible impeachment.

Presidents and Emperors

Parallels exist between the American and Roman Empires.  Nero fiddled while Rome burned.  George Bush jr. fiddled at a fundraiser while New Orleans drowned from Katrina.   Emperor Caligula lasted four years and was considered the crazy emperor.  His name comes from his reputation for small boots.  Trump is the crazy president noted for his small hands.

Nobel Prize Update

The same usual pattern of viewing all my expertclick.com press releases in a row tipped me off that the Norwegian Nobel Committee was interested in my nomination.  That same pattern recurred 12 days, 10 days, and 1 day before the last announcement October 6th, 2017.  So, I came very close last time.  Then November 3rd and 10th both Fridays, tipped me off that they may have had buyer’s remorse not picking me last time, with 5 German and 3 French views on those two days, where my assigned committee member is located as Secretary General of the Council of Europe.  Evidently Thorbjorn Jagland works in Strasbourg France and may also connect to the internet across the river in Germany on occasion.  February 1st is the deadline for nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Associate Professors of Social Sciences and related areas as well as government officials and members of national assemblies are among the many eligible to nominate.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee has launched an on-line nomination form.  Please read more here: https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/Nomination.  I thank those who have nominated me the last two years and anyone who does again this time.          

For additional information about election stealing in the USA:

https://www.academia.edu/30092060/ELECTION_Stealing_2004_&_2000_24_pages_2004.doc

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, January 1), “Trump Russia Fire and Fury” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Trump-Russia-Fire-and-Fury,2018152922.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Peace & Security Economists

The following report was published in the November 2003 Newsletter of “Economists for Peace and Security”.  It is typical of the differences between my science of economics and the traditional nature of far left economists who still stubbornly cling to the notion that economics is a social science.  It’s all just a matter of degree and perspective.  Water can be gas, a liquid, or a solid.  Economics is like the gas state at the individual level and like the liquid state at the business level.  When economists say there will never be a science of economics they really mean there will never be a solid state for economics.  But when solid state like qualities are found in macroeconomics as in my 20th and 21st century modeling, economists of all stripes are inclined to stick to their training rather than accept a new truth.  Even a hard science like physics can resemble the social sciences at the quantum physics level. But without the uncertainty of the Schrodinger wave equation we can not explain the solid state circuit board of all our modern electronics.  Uncertainty becomes certainty as activity reaches modern levels of trillions of dollars and billions of people.  All we have to lose is our illusions and build new models from scratch and common sense as an engineer and accountant would.  This was written before my 2009 doctorate.

War and Empire: The Political Economy of US Militarism by Robert Reuschlein

Meeting from August 23-26 2003, members of the Union of Radical Political Economists, URPE, considered war and empire. The David Gordon Lecture was given by Michael Perelman of Cal State Chico on War, Empire, and Economic Decline. He said empire emerges with weakening of the economy. (I would take this a step further to say that “empire” with high levels of military spending causes a chronically weakened economy.) He went on to say the US was outsourcing production to concentrate on distribution, and that deindustrialization was acceptable to the public. (I find this an inevitable result of wasting key resources on the military, thus hollowing out the technological base of the economy to leave only the service and distribution sectors at world class competitive levels as “empire decay” sets in.)

He alluded to strategic overreach, saying “ever new acquisitions bring ever new frontiers of risk.” He said the military would not save the economy, that postwar busts follow wartime booms, and he mused that WWII might have marked a height for demand helped by war. (But I say the 1946 economy was the same size as that of 1941, setting America back five years, and that the manufacturing productivity growth rate for the forties was 40 percent below average, suggesting four lost years, most likely the war years. Of course others suffered even more: Russia was set back 8 years, Germany 13 years, and Japan 17 years by the war.) He said the military squanders talented resources making civilian industry less competitive.

Other speakers were Bob Pollin, Alan Campbell, David Laibman, and Paddy Quick. Pollin, who will soon host the URPE office at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, anchored a Sunday morning panel on The Effects of War and Empire at Home. The speakers were good; it’s just that they all seemed to agree that military spending stimulates the economy, a point for which I find precious little evidence. (Even in World War II, when war bonding failed to keep up with war spending in the third and fourth years, the economy slowed and then halted. So I believe that deficit and adrenaline war booms happen in spite of a military drag on the economy, not because of military spending.)

Pollin’s lecture discussed the Clinton years as a 36 percent cut in the military and a 10 percent to 20 percent drop in social programs producing the surplus: that’s the peace dividend. He argued that the stock market boom helped boost private consumption from 62 to 68 percent of the economy, creating the growth wave as local government grew and federal government shrank from 22 to 18 percent. He thinks the best way to stimulate the economy would be for the federal government to bail out the states. Nothing in his lecture suggested the negative effects of military spending as outlined by Michael Perelman. Pollin believes in military Keynesianism, ignoring the possibility that large cuts in military spending after the end of the Cold War propelled the nineties boom. He sees military spending as a political negative but an economic positive.

Alan Campbell was the coordinator of workshops and plenaries. The group is certainly egalitarian, and tries to give everyone a workshop. He also presented a slide show demonstrating a rich understanding of the Cuban economy.

David Laibman used his thorough grasp of the ins and outs of macroeconomic analysis for an imaginative workshop showing aggregate supply and demand models with their sundry price level variables and feedback loops.

My workshop on the “Social Decay of Empire” focused on the ways societies with high military spending become stagnant and frustrated internally.

Robert Reuschlein, a member of ECAAR, is an MBA engineer and CPA and a war-gaming mathematician who has published and spoken widely on issues of war and economics. See http://www.realeconomy.com.

Economists for Peace and Security http://www.epsusa.org

 

For additional information please see this Published Article (with details added):

https://www.academia.edu/23034796/TECHNICAL_Peace_Economics_8p._2014-2016

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, January 1), “Economists Peace & Security”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Economists-Peace-&-Security,2018152413.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Scientific Methods Variety

What is the scientific method? 

According to Google these are the seven steps of the scientific method:

  • Make an observation.
  • Conduct research.
  • Form hypothesis.
  • Test hypothesis.
  • Record data.
  • Draw conclusion.
  • Replicate.

How is it used in the social sciences compared to the hard sciences?

The hard sciences like physics and chemistry follow the scientific method more closely, more traditionally, more quantitatively.  The social sciences are usually looking for more nuance and focus on proceeding from a scholastic literature review of previous work in the field of choice.  So they are starting with the “form hypotheses” or questions stage after a literature review, the third step in this process as described by Google on 11-29-17.  Only then do they proceed with the more basic research approach with the first two steps of observation and conducting research.  This is more of a qualitative approach than the more quantitatively oriented basic research approach of the hard sciences which follows in the same order of the Google approach.  The basis for most social science work is the APA standard of the American Psychological Association.  The social sciences have a bias and assumption that they reflect the complexity and diversity of the human species and human civilization, hence psychology sets the standard.  As one sociology professor once told me, a correlation of 0.30 is significant, and perfect fits are inherently suspect.  This is very different from the basic research approach of the hard sciences, where the last step, replication, is expected to be exact.  Close is considered good enough for the social sciences where ambiguity of results is expected to resemble the diversity of the human experience.

How is it used in economics? 

Nobel prize winner in 1973 economics sciences, laureate Wassily Leontief, has said that 97% of the economics literature consists of articles about other people’s articles, and 2.5% is for model building and 0.5% is basic research.  So when Robert Reuschlein pursues modeling and basic research as his primary focus he is already outside of the mainstream.  Economics History Society co-founder R. H. Tawney, rejecting the Marshallian economics of his day, asserted that “There is no such thing as a science of economics, nor ever will be.”  This remains the common belief of the average economist today.  See “The Nobel Factor” subtitled “The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy and the Market Turn” by Avner Offer and Gabriel Soderberg (2016), and reviewed by Jim Tomlinson (2016).  These views are furthered by the department head’s views when I was admitted to the University of Oregon Economics Doctoral Program.  His view was the starting with the data was cheating, that the reasonable hypothesis must come first.  This makes sense if you are constructing econometric models of fifty some “three or four variable” equations, because the degrees of freedom with make the results meaningless.  This doesn’t make sense for a three factor elegant scientific sixty year model such as created by Robert Reuschlein. Following the elegant basic truths of the hard science methodology is completely different from the traditional social science methodology, where 97% of the economic literature is perfectly happy to do.

Does peer review help or hinder scientific revolutions? 

Peer Review can easily lead to the situation where new ideas can be considered inappropriate, as has often happened to a colleague of mine that has repeatedly offered new path breaking articles in emerging new fields.  I find this in my own work on Peace I can leave the crowd so stunned they do not know where to begin with questions.  This is very frustrating so I have turned to blogging in an effort to simplify the material enough to make partial progress.  The wordy diversity junkies of the social sciences simply do not have the patience to follow the systematic building of a long string of engineering steps that lead to a physics like solid conclusion.  Some have called me “dry” as I carefully seek to clarify simple important points.  Others call me arrogant for the courage of my convictions based on provable math.  If you do not have the understandings of business, you can easily accuse me of self promotion, but without promotion branding and marketing, new ideas go nowhere.  If you think avoiding war or social movements are the only acceptable paths to peace, you fail to see how reducing military spending and better understanding the causes and time periods for war can lead to much happier lives and prosperity for whole populations.  If you do not see the connection between military spending and murder rates or poor health outcomes, you are giving military spending too much credit, underestimating the domestic destruction of militarism.

Does it help or hinder interdisciplinary studies?

Peer review  and differing interpretations of the scientific method can be great impediments to new thinking that can only be truly appreciated in an interdisciplinary way.  Interdisciplinary thinking helps clarify basic concepts by looking at them from several angles.  This is the same kind of triangulation that is used in astronomy to estimate how far away objects are.  Differing religions can put barriers between people, but all religions have their version of the Golden Rule.  Hence multiple religions can better triangulate basic principles of good.  Some religions say pray always, while others encourage chanting singing and meditation to the same effect.  History, politics, economics, sociology, and psychology should be unified in their thinking, not at war  with each other in their separate silos and linguistics.  Empire theory helps unify these different disciplines at a basic level.  Having a common backbone can help the various social sciences relate to each other.

For More Information:

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt_3p._2014

Published Article:

https://www.academia.edu/23034796/TECHNICAL_Peace_Economics_8p._2014-2016

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, December 10), “Scientific Methods Variety”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Scientific-Methods-Variety,2017131789.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Findings and Special Claims

Since the Norwegian Nobel Committee seems to be taking me very seriously lately, it’s time for a catalog of my findings and special claims.

  1. Manufacturing Productivity growth rate reduces in proportion to military economy. Ruth Sivard provided the bar chart of nineteen years summary of G7 countries plus Sweden and Denmark in 1981.  Nils Petter Gledisch correlated the data at R=-0.81.  Reuschlein combined Europe and North America improving the continental correlation to R=-0.997.  Claim:  this proves the non-productive nature of military spending.  Reuschlein 1986.
  2. Capital Investment reduces by the amount of military spending. Ruth Sivard in 1983 published this bar chart of the G7 countries plus Sweden over a twenty one year period.  Reuschlein claims that for five of these countries R=-0.993.  The outliers of Italy and Canada are secondary countries in the two main continents, 3.5% GDP lower than the main top four NATO countries, and Japan is 4.5% GDP higher due to a strong cultural bias towards savings. Reuschlein 1986.
  3. American economic productivity model from 1920 to 1983 shows a correlation of R=0.999. All parameters were independently arrived at from annual historical data analysis.  Claim:  this model proves the existence of the 1926 Nicolai Kondratieff 54 year cycle and the Clement Juglar 1860 nine year investment cycle.  This model also has trade loss Great Depression factor and oil shock seventies Oil Crisis factor.  These special factors also repeat confirm their accuracy on a three year basis. Reuschlein 1986.
  4. Defense Strategy model 1985 and 1986. Here is where my war-gaming background comes in handy.  Claim:  this is the key concept why it is imperative for nations to reduce military spending or suffer long term national security disaster in a next major war decades from now.
  5. Decade by decade GDP of these same countries from 1900 to 1980 shows countries rising on low military and falling on high military generally. Best examples, USA, Japan, Russia, Germany.  Claim:  rise and fall of nations depends on level of military spending.  This supports 1972 Toynbee claim that 23 of 25 empires fell because of their high military spending.  Reuschlein 1986.
  6. Murder and Crime rates of five of same countries are proportional to the military economy. The five are from high to low America, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Japan, R=0.996.  This works best for murder rates, and crime index of murder, crime, criminals.  Sweden does not fit for crime index because of definitional issues such as misdemeanors added to felonies.  These five are all 160 year old societies.  The 400 year old societies of England, France, Massachusetts, and Virginia also correlate, R=0.93, but at a 60% lower rate.  The additional 240 years divided by 400 years is 60%.  This indicates a reduced crime rate for being a stable society, but still affected by the military economy size.  Claim:  social decay of declining empires is a direct result of the military spending levels, both because of the economic stagnation and the level of militarism.  Reuschlein 1989.
  7. Regional Growth proportional to military spending changes R=0.97. Analysis of Bi-Coastal Economy report of 1986 shows this when adding military spending changes and grouping states together around regional hub cities or other logical economic clusters of 17 state cluster mini-regions. Cluster idea partial credit goes to Los Angeles Book Award “Cities and the Wealth of Nations” and Reuschlein’s accounting background.  Reuschlein 1987.
  8. Kondratieff wave not only in economics, but also in droughts, temperature, and in wars. Reuschlein 1991.  Claim:  my list of 56 major events, natural, economics, and wars, shows 20 exact year fits and an average departure of 1.5 years from the 54 year cycle.  Drought data prepared by NOAA in 1988, presented on C-SPAN, started the three year project.
  9. Reuschlein finds 54 year cycle in a variety of volcanic, drought, flood, temperature, precipitation, hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes, and El Nino data. “Trends 90” a key statistical help with other sources.  Working with 14 temperature and 2 precipitation data sets I gradually discovered the pattern.  The difference in hemispheres North and South confirmed the pattern.  My forecasting prowess once earned top honors in a business course on production 1976.
  10. Found nine year cycle in precipitation records 1991. With nine year and 54 year cycles in both temperature and economics, what is the connection?  Failed trying to find it in agriculture.  Then the business production class bails me out as I remember Frederick Taylor’s work finding an ideal temperature to build railroads of 64 degrees Fahrenheit.  A 1986 Climate Change video aired on Maryland PBS by Australian Journalist James Walker leads to Ideal Temperature Zone concept.  Claim:  humans respond to excessive heat with lethargy, creating the link between economic cycles and weather cycles.
  11. Goldstein 1987 finds fifty year cycle in major wars in Europe last five hundred years. Reuschlein extends this to three hundred years of Roman Empire, 200 years of America, for a total of 1000 years with 6 of 17 major war years projected onto the future year 2025.  Pattern is usually #1 versus #2 power after 27 year high growth period when wealth is maximized and new economic differences are maximized.  Then about three years into the new low growth period, at the end of a major cold year two or three year trend, leaders seek a distraction into war and the major war breaks out.  Claim:  both economics and temperature lead to major wars.
  12. Finding: unemployment rate variance across the states fluctuates greatly with the military spending.  For the 1984-1992 period, US military spending % GDP drops 23% overall while the Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell’s home state Maine increases 100%. 12 state clusters representing the Eastern 78% of the country correlate directly with the military changes, R=0.97.  The largest rise in unemployment occurs in Massachusetts as Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill retires in 1986.  Opposite pattern of #7 but same correlation, as the sixteen states that benefited most under Reagan military buildup have fourteen of the highest unemployment rate increases.  The two exceptions?  South Carolina and Georgia with the chair and ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee representing those two states.  Reuschlein 1992.
  13. Richard Schneider asks me to teach my course on “University of the Air” Radio for Peace International 1997. Finding:  recognizing the manufacturing nature of military spending taken as a whole.  1991 University of Colorado professor invites me to write up the manufacturing productivity connection explanation.  Finding:  must look at arms manufacturers as suppliers to the military “factory”.  Then military “factory” is light manufacturing with heavy equipment manufactured by arms industry.  Then absence of a positive product that helps meet human needs like food, clothing, shelter, transportation, fuel, and other hard goods explains how military spending inputs can nourish local communities while giving back only a political service to the larger community or nation.  Necessity is not the issue, national defense is not the issue; lack of a consumer product is the economic flaw in military spending.  Input Output analysis is the key to this understanding.
  14. Spirit Level 2010 by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Puckett shows that income inequality leads to disastrous social and health outcomes. Finding:  Military Spending has much stronger correlations on the six strongest components of their index.  Claim:  Decline of empire is more responsible for poor social conditions than income inequality.
  15. Doctoral Dissertation on Peace Economics in Peace Studies 2009 finds that of eight key concepts in Peace Economics as I define it, Peace Studies programs are very weak on two. Those are the regional state by state economics of military spending and the long cycle of history of booms and busts and wars.  The 54 year cycle is hardly mentioned.  Claim:  not understanding the local impact of military spending and politics beyond the usual generalities avoids findings like all presidents elected during the 11 elections of the Cold War came from an above average military spending state.  Claim:  not understanding the long cycle leads to poor prediction of wars, which leads to military over preparation for constant wars and war threats.
  16. Finding: Klyashtorin’s spectrum analysis of Greenland ice core data shows a very strong 55 year cycle in temperature data over 1400 years.  A friend on a global warming list-serve shared that research from decades ago in circa 2005.  Finding after Hurricane Sandy in 2012:  Running a 55 year moving average over the 1850 to 2010 annual global temperature data smooths the graph into three straight lines, with the last two correlating at .998 and .997 respectively.  Claim:  this proves the existence of the Kondratieff wave   and the natural origins of that cycle show that the economic cycle is not human made but comes from a cycle between land and ocean caused by differential evaporation rates over land and ocean.  Like the four seasons over 12 months this super season occurs over 54 years and occurs despite background changes to the underlying trends caused by the Greenhouse Effect.

Summary

  1. Claim: Recognition of this body of work will lead to better severe weather and major hurricane repeat events predictions as historical records are analyzed and regionalized better.

Claim:  Fortunes will be made in the stock market as the regional impact of major military budget changes is seen to change the fortunes of regionally concentrated stocks and as military states and manufacturing states are seen to move in opposite directions.  Claim:  downward pressure will be strong on all military budgets everywhere as nations begin to understand the self-defeating role high military spending has on a nation’s real defense strength, its economy, over the course of a few decades:  a better balance will be struck between short term defense and long term defense.  Claim:  economic benefits as well as social benefits will accrue to those who find a lower balance of military spending as the way to go.  The million US homicide deaths that occurred in the thirty years after John Lennon’s death could have been cut in half if the military budget had been cut in half, saving 500,000 lives.  Claim:  science will be enhanced greatly as economics and climate change each improve in accuracy by an order of magnitude, with many benefits to the billions of people on this planet.  Claim:  all of these benefits and more will only occur if someone like the Norwegian Nobel Committee helps me get over the publicity and recognition hurdles, so that thousands of scientist can help take this work to the next level.

Seven Page Summary of Main Ideas:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7pages

 

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, November 16), “Why Is the USA an Empire?”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Findings-and-Special-Claims,2017131181.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Why Is the USA an Empire?

Many make the mistake of defining an empire by its legal structure or the formal way it projects its power overseas.  That is too narrow a definition.  Who is considered a citizen and what lands are possessed by the empire often are the basis of traditional empire definition.  A better modern definition of empire would look at the flows into and out of a country to better define the scope of empire.  Those who recognize America as an empire often begin with the 700 or 800 foreign military bases the United States has worldwide.  Those who would call America an empire would often refer to this as Imperial Overstretch and consider this a main cause of the decline of empires generally speaking.  I myself find the large standing military and overseas political entanglements a better definition of an empire society.  Because the military budget itself defines and measures so much of the rate of economic decline and the rise of various forms of social decay and political control, that is the single best measure of empire as I see it.  Control of large areas of land outside of the original nation state is just not the way Americans like to do business or see themselves; they like to think they are a democracy, not an empire.  But post World War II America not only adopted a large standing army, it also projected its democratic image in a variety of world institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.  However, the mixture of America’s elites (often Ivy League) among the areas of dominance in business, politics, law, media, and the intelligence agencies has created a ruling class.  This ruling class has over time become ingrown and stifles social mobility among the various income groups.  There are still success stories among the land grant college graduates and the military, but America is now more of a class based society than Europe; just the opposite of the situation around World War II, the hegemonic war that lead to US world dominance and empire.

How Did We Get This Way?

The start of the modern American empire was in 1944, when the Democratic Party Convention failed to keep the liberal Wallace as Vice President.  He earned 63% of the vote, but the rules required a two thirds vote.  Early the next morning, moderate Truman was voted in.  Truman was determined to oppose the Soviets and use the atomic bomb, taking the Churchill side of the debate and setting up the rise of the Cold War confrontation.  Then in 1947 the national security act was passed creating the CIA and the Nazi spy network in Russia was absorbed into the CIA.  All this was opposed by the Secretary of War and the Joint Chiefs of Staff who wanted a traditional small army between wars rather than the large standing army of the Cold War.  So Truman raised the military to 5% of the economy rather than the traditional 1% between wars that went back to the 19th Century.  After Korea, Eisenhower then doubled that rate to 10% of the economy keeping the Eisenhower economy under a 2.5% annual growth rate.  Oddly, in both 1953 and 1961 Eisenhower warned us about the military industrial complex even as he was their agent.  Under Kennedy through Carter, except for the Vietnam War, the military was brought back down to the Truman pre-Korea levels of 5% of the economy.  Then Reagan reversed course raising the military to 6.5% of the economy, supported by a tax cut deficit twice the rise in military spending to keep the economy from collapsing.  Kennedy brought military spending down to 7.7% of the economy by 1965 that together with the Kennedy targeted tax cut investment tax credit created the sixties boom.  The four years after 1965 had a 5.6% growth rate, the next four years 4.0% and the next four years 3.6% as the Vietnam War dragged down the economy under Johnson and Nixon through 1973.  The next sixteen years of four presidential terms averaged about 2.5% growth in each term as the post-Vietnam oil crisis recession, the Carter 1978 tax, and Reagan military buildup weighed down the economy into mediocracy.  The Bush senior term suffered from the 1990 tax increase and the post-Cold War and post-Gulf War recessions that elected Clinton in 1992.  Then the drop from 6.5% military to 3.0% from 1965 to 1999 returned the economy to sixties like high growth rates under Clinton. Bush junior then ruined the surplus and the economy with a Reagan like military buildup to 5.0% of the economy with a too small tax cut.  A suddenly surging military buildup, in fiscal 2008, doubled the increase of the military compared to years before and since, and leads to the financial collapse of 2008-2009.  Deregulation of derivatives in 1999 lead to a ten-fold increase in derivatives that set the table for the financial collapse, but a quarter by quarter economy analysis shows the four quarters of the fiscal year 2008 were the worst economic quarter results in that period of several years either side of 2008.  So the Iraq War surge, that actually began in July 2008, lead directly to the economic collapse, combined with the bank deregulation and lack of SEC oversight to make matters worse.  The economic recovery under Obama was slow as he tripled troops in Afghanistan, keeping Bush levels of military spending, but picked up in his second term as the military budget finally went down. This link gives you a better detailed historical account of the American presidencies and supporting data: https://www.academia.edu/4044532/HISTORY_Presidents_Military_Economy_1910-2009_3p._2013

What Are Some Effects of Empire Levels of Military Spending?

As Toynbee (1972) noticed, 23 of 25 civilizations studied collapsed due to high levels of military spending.  Control of the military budget is two way street, corrupting the political system while giving power to those who dole out the money.  The social decay of empire is a result of the economic lost energy represented by the dead end purpose of military spending.  Not meeting people’s needs as they multiply under a stagnant empire political economy structure leads to poor health, lack of social mobility, and high anxiety and crime.  Just as Rome’s Nero fiddled while Rome burned, Bush fiddled while New Orleans was drowned by hurricane Katrina.  Just as Rome once had a crazy emperor for four years named Caligula for his small boots. America now has a crazy president noted for his small hands. Empires tend to emphasize power and control in their social structure, while healthier societies emphasize achievement.  Here are a wide variety of comparative aspects of an empire society including power/achievement, control/opportunity, win/lose, feudalism/ingenuity, boredom/excitement, high crime/low crime, football/baseball, bomb/home, forgiving/unforgiving:

https://www.academia.edu/11421799/MILITARISM_CONTROL_Empire_Social_Decay_WWW_97_6p

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, November 5), “Why Is the USA an Empire?”  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Why-Is-the-USA-an-Empire?,2017130884.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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