bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the tag “Engineering”

Systemic Review of Releases

I have kept detailed daily accounts of viewings of my expertclick.com press releases in the five years since February 1, 2014.  How often those daily totals include the ten most recent press releases in a row tells a revealing story.  In the two years before being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2016, ten in a row was rare, 13% out of 731 days.  Then the nomination came in early 2016, and in the 209 days from that first look at my 50 in a row expertclick.com press releases at 9am Norway time on 2-2-16, the rate of ten in a rows soared to 48%.   That period ended about a week before the next announcement on the first Friday in October at 11am Norway time.  Then the second Nobel year of study for the 2017 nomination runs from September 29, 2016 to December 23, 2017 with an 89% response rate of ten in a rows per day.  That is 401 days out of 450, with 11 consecutive periods of up to 75 or 110 days in a row and 10 erratic short periods in between the long streaks.  Then there is a pause period of lighter observation of 64 days with only 25 ten in a row days (39%), before beginning the 2018 year of serious observation with 223 days of ten in a row days out of 224 days, a 99.55% rate from 2-25-18 to 9-26-18.  This period also includes 37 of the 46 “long looks” of about 24 in a row in one day, up to that point.  There is the pause period, 9-27-18 to 10-22-18 of 26 days with 9 ten in rows, 31%.  Finally, there is the start of the new year 2019 with the 10-23-18 to 2-25-19 of 126 straight days (100%) with ten in a row and another 30 “long looks” of about 24 in a row, some with a second streak not consecutive with the first ten in a row.  This is a much shorter pause and many more long looks than the start of the very strong interest in the 2018 year.  These patterns are uniquely suggestive of the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s growing interest in my inventions of military economics, empire economics, and climate war cycles explanations.  The 76 Google academia interests were mainly 2014 (9), 2015 (23), and 2016 (42), then tapered off.

Climate Development

Krakatoa erupts somewhat on schedule on December 23, 2018.  The two largest volcanic eruptions in the last 200 years, Krakatoa of Sumatra in 1883 and Pinatubo of the Philippines in 1991 were a perfect double 54-year cycle of 108 years apart.  They were both in the South China Sea islands in the oceanic phase of the 108-year cycle, which consists of two 54-year cycles back to back, one with the oceanic Southern hemisphere hotter and the other with the land-like Northern hemisphere hotter.  Miami hurricanes (1935, 1965, 1992, 2017) and civil rights riots (Watts 1965 and Rodney King 1992) and San Francisco earthquakes (1906, 1989, 2014) have shown that some things happen on the half cycle of 27 years as well.  So, Krakatoa comes back at 108 plus 27 years, 27 years after the Pinatubo eruption of 1991.  All three eruptions happen after multi decade global heat waves.  They are in the Western Pacific, where great storms gain energy across the largest ocean.  Storms grow in the equatorial wind belt going due West from off the coast of Latin America, the greatest planetary solar gain over oceans.

Legal Suggestion

It’s time to add journalists to the list of victims of hate crime attacks.  False screams of fire in a crowded theatre are legally actionable.  Provoking the murderers of blacks by white nationalists can bankrupt hate groups that are deemed liable.  The leader of a nation should not be allowed to incite his followers against journalists with false repeated allegations of fake news and that the media are enemies of the people.  Hate speech needs to have consequences.  We have too long suffered attacks on journalists at rallies, murders of journalists in Paris and Maryland, and the tolerance of the murder of a Washington Post journalist by Saudi Arabia.

More detail about this main topic:

https://www.academia.edu/37572795/Following_Nobel_Norwegians_Detail_10-8-18_release_4_pages

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, February 26), “Systemic Review of Releases”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Systemic-Review-of-Releases,2019178068.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (pace well ahead of last year) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Idle Money Devil’s Workshop

We have this expression that “idle hands are the devil’s workshop.”  Change the word from “hands” to “money” and this principle can be used to explain the disaster area America has become since 1980.  Reagan freed the rich from high taxes while unleashing an all-out war on the unions that gave America its middle class.  The resulting excess “idle money” began the rich people’s war on the middle class.  Unlimited riches gave rise to unlimited campaign donations and right-wing institutes.  Four decades later, the 99% are increasingly being left behind by the top 1%, or more accurately, the top 0.1%.  Corruption of the American system has grown everywhere during these four decades of the rich not sharing America’s productivity growth with the rest of us 99%.  We have developed a working-class austerity “mean” mentality that supports this ongoing plundering of the middle class by the rich by using resentments to divide us into warring tribes.

Existing Structure

The prevalent divide of the bourgeoisie and the proletariat tends to favor a perspective of the top 20% versus the bottom 80%.  This is very misleading.  By focusing on the top 20% it can be shown certain things, like the fact that a college degree leads to significantly higher income.  That this top 20% can be shown to have a good lifestyle while 40% of America lives from paycheck to paycheck completely hides the fact that the top 1% has more than quadrupled their incomes relative to the rest of us 99% the last forty years.  The professional class is fooling themselves that they have done well, while even they have shown little improvement over forty years ago.  This new pattern, so drastically different than the forty years prior to 1980, is so entrenched that classic divide and conquer strategies like pitting the millennials against the boomers make sense to the millennials who have never known another America like the one the boomers grew up in.  They fail to see that the boomers did not take advantage of them, the rich did, the top 1% and the deluded 12% that think they are in the top 1% and the next 23% that expect to be 1% someday, engineered the election of Ronald Reagan to once and for all time put the rich back in charge by lowering the top tax rate from 70% to 28% and the capital gains tax rate lowered as well. Together with a union busting strategy and heel dragging on raising the minimum wage.  Further the working class has been led to believe that immigrants and affirmative action recipients are taking their jobs, when the rich and the lost growth from militarization of society into an empire has led to their disadvantage.  The automation excuse ignores the Germany example of how advanced manufacturing can replace automated jobs with new manufacturing and engineering jobs.  Just as manufacturing and productivity shrink with every military buildup, the overseas placement of jobs proceeds with the cost-free aid of military protection and financial investment enrichment of the rich 1% class.  The Wall Street Journal showed that all New York Stock Exchange stocks from 2000-2010 added 3 million jobs overseas, reducing 900,000 at home.  People are overpaid one third in weapons industries, whether they are blue collar, while collar or engineers, and top financial jobs helping the rich exploit the rest of us are extremely lucrative topping many best jobs lists.  The financial industry has grown to ten times its share of national profits since 1980.  Meanwhile, the auto industry and manufacturing in general have faded away, as the richest city in American moved from Detroit (autos) in 1960 to Boston (MIT top military research institution) in the Cold War eighties to the Washington DC area today where seven of the ten richest counties in America are now located.  Wall Street and the Pentagon enable our government to exploit the rest of us in the name of rising inequality going straight to the top 1%.  The red states resist, but they are shooting at the wrong enemy, unwittingly voting in the exploiters.  Ironically, the college degree and up educated are trying to put America back into balance, unfortunately with piecemeal improvements rather than a return to taxing the rich as in our “Glory Days” before 1980.

Billionaires

Always the rich and famous have been with us and influential.  Perhaps never more since the Gilded Age of the late Nineteenth century have the rich been in control of America.  Long have the rich been kingmakers.  Since the Citizens United decision of the Supreme Court in 2010 there has been a flood gate of big money into politics for both parties, a trend that started around 1980.  Ralph Nader wrote “Only the Super Rich Can Save Us” noting this trend favored the rich and corporate interests, but enough rich people existed that valued democracy enough to try and right the balance.  Lately, the internet and small donor only fundraising by candidates have been able to fight back with an unusual number of underfunded candidates beginning to win this way.  On the left, George Soros provides money, Warren Buffett has suggested the 30% minimum tax on the rich, and Jeff Bezos of Amazon has bought the Washington Post, and Tom Steyer has waged an aggressive impeachment campaign.  On the right, the Mercer family has funded Trump, while the Koch brothers have founded the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) and promoted right wing academic organizations on campuses across the country.  Sheldon Adelman is another major conservative donor.  The Bradley Foundation leads in right wing funding even over better-known Heritage and CATO.  Many of these right-wing institutions started in the seventies making the post-1980 changes possible.

Nobel Peace Prize

The economy draining properties of military spending, proven by the Reuschlein science, are perfect for filling the need to reduce armies, as called for in Nobel’s will.  As such several people have nominated me for the Nobel Peace Prize starting with 2016 and each subsequent year.  This is your chance to join them in the history that will be confidential for 50 years.  Many qualify including social science professors and associate professors, including law, history, and theology and others.  Also, members of national governments and legislatures and many others can nominate.  Deadline this year is midnight GMT time on 1-31-19, 5pm Chicago time.  But act immediately because they must reply to your application first before you can submit it.

Social Science Associate Professors May Nominate Reuschlein for Nobel Peace Prize:

https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/Nomination/Nominator-application-form

List of Empire Economics Special Findings by Reuschlein:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, January 29), “Idle Money Devil’s Workshop”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Idle-Money-Devil’s-Workshop,2019167038.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (pace well ahead of last year) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Need to Know About Empire

While conventional history is biographical and anecdotal and resists the concept of theory, Peace Economics finds that theory works very well, thank you.  Empire Economics is a new science that incorporates the new findings of Peace Economics.  Here are some of the key concepts of this new framework I consider a backbone to the jellyfish of conventional history, a backbone to the jellyfish of the social sciences.

Opportunity Cost

Military spending is like capital investment turned into political investment instead.  Resources used in military spending are like those used in capital investment or manufacturing or construction except that they are focused on political goals rather than economic goals.  Diverting those resources to a non-economic purpose represents an “opportunity cost” to society that permanently reduces the economic growth of that society by the amount of those resources used.  These economically misdirected research and capital resources may significantly enhance military capability and effectiveness instead of enhancing civilian economy capability and effectiveness.  This trade-off is the “opportunity cost” of military spending.  This is the principal reason empires eventually fall behind another emerging nation and lose their premier empire status.  The economic loss of military spending is immediately apparent in each year, it is measurable and direct in its impact year after year after year.  Alleged research benefits of military spending are minuscule compared to the lost capital investment growth.  Foreign military sales are also dwarfed by the large military expenditures and often subsidized by military foreign aid.

History Explained

Because of the opportunity cost principal, empire economies are gradually eroded until another low military spending emerging nation overtakes them economically.  Since usually the stronger economy wins wars, the changing economic fortunes eventually lead to adverse political consequences, like losing a hegemonic war.  This explains why the slogan “peace through strength” is terribly misleading.  The illusion is that more spent on the military makes a nation stronger, but the reality is that that additional spending weakens the nation year after year eroding the economic standing of the nation and exposing the nation to an increasing over time chance of losing a hegemonic war to one of the upstart nations.

Minds That Hate

The Beatles song “Revolution” says we all want to change the world, but if you talk about destruction lead by people with minds that hate, leave me out.  The framework of minds that hate becomes especially consequential in that empires create or react to enemies.  When a whole people view another people as their enemies, this is a corrosion of the mind into a mind that hates.  Killing another person is the worst that you can do to them.  When killing is the main occupation of troops, this has a corrosive effect on the persons who are the troops.  Even in World War II 70% of the troops never fired a shot in anger at another person.  It is extremely difficult to get one person to kill another.  This natural tendency was overcome in the fifties in America with training techniques that made it easier for troops to kill.  Murder rates rose after Vietnam in America and based on seventies eighties and nineties data, murder rates among America, Germany, Italy, and Japan were almost perfectly correlated with military spending as a percentage of the economy.  With the end of the Cold War both military spending and murder and crime rates dropped in the leading Western countries.  But they dropped further and faster in Europe as Europe demilitarized more that America did.

Social Decay Explained

In recent decades, the G7 countries have shown varying levels of social decay in proportion to the economic militarization of the country.  This association with military spending is so strong suggesting that the economic decay produced by military spending spills over into the social decay in statistics like mental health, infant mortality, diabetes, teenage births, prisoners, murders, and social mobility and income inequality.  The connection seems so direct that alternative explanations of the decay of empires such as moral decay leading to economic decay are clearly backwards, as causality shows the logic is the other way around.  The military spending leads to economic decay in year by year analysis, whereas morality is a long-term issue.  So, if morality or taking the money supply off the gold standard were causes rather than effects, how would that explain the annual variation of military spending (net of deficits) effect on the economy?  Clearly the military economic effect is primary.  Another issue that arises is the idea that empires will eventually fall over a long enough time period.  This assumes a kind of complacency comes over a population that leads to the fall, somewhat like the morality theory earlier discussed.  Again, this theory is defied by the reaction to military spending changes shown by the economy.  Both in the sixties and nineties in America, lowering military spending lead to great economic booms, hardly a sign of the so-called inevitable decline theory.  Military spending changes do change the economic and social structure of the country, suggesting that long term decline is not inevitable, but in fact is caused by the level of military spending.

Paramount Politics

Politically, leaders are afraid to be shown to be cowards.  This often translates into being in favor of the latest war suggestion regardless of the merits.  Oddly enough, this suggests that warlike leaders may be cowards, because it takes a great deal of political courage to oppose war.  But people assume the opposite, perhaps because of the sacrifice required in wartime seeming so noble and courageous, at least at the level of the individual soldier.  This combined with the reverse economics that those who command the most military resources are empowered the most in the political system, as huge military contracts are easily steered into the political districts of presidents and congressional leaders, and especially the committee members of the key military spending authorization and disbursement committees.  This runs completely counter to the national drain on the economy of military spending, so much and so visibly so that many come to believe that military spending can stimulate economic growth.  This belief does not look at the complete picture as manufacturing states lose jobs and income during military buildups.  The victim states and regions tend to blame themselves rather than recognize how the military scam works at the political level, rewarding those that seize the military resources away from the life-giving civilian economy.

Climate Change

Paradoxically, the oil loaded military aircraft (one third of all jet fuel is used by the military) and vehicles (M1 tank gets one mile for two gallons) people at the pentagon are concerned about how climate change is destabilizing the world and creating many warlike opportunities for local leaders to exploit droughts and other natural occurrences of so-called global weirding.  This has led to the pentagon scrutinizing my climate work and the CIA scrutinizing my military spending work.  As so often seems to be the case, the micro dominates the macro, as people are so overwhelmed by the big picture that they concentrate on the little picture.  This is a good tactic in passing controversial budgets.  Give in on a small issue and people will vote the huge budget through without too much scrutiny.  Just look at the hoopla over $5 billion dollars for a wall or other barrier in America.  Meanwhile, 800,000 federal employees will forgo about $2.5 billion in paychecks on January 12, 2019, as the issue drags on.  $5 billion could give universal pre-K education to all children in America.  Trade war, shutdown, and military could fuel recession.

Of 78 papers on my academia website, “Stages of Empire” is the 6th most popular:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, January 8), “Need to Know About Empire”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Need-to-Know-About-Empire,2019166287.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) Nobel Peace Prize, A Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Technology Loser: Military

Many believe that military spending is good for the economy.  Nothing could be further from the truth.   Comprehensive, thorough, and painstaking research and modeling over the decades shows the general wisdom to be very false.

General Economic Wisdom

Manufacturing with technology growth is a better path to prosperity than resource-based economies.  Military spending absorbs but only partially contributes to market-based and market-tested technology growth.  Military spending is power oriented rather than achievement oriented.  In fact, resource-based economies tend to be militaristic, mercantilist, and corrupt with limited growth potential.  Two good examples of this today are Russia and Saudi Arabia, both of whom have leaders willing to kill journalists and political opponents to keep their power, and feel free to use their military power to achieve national objectives.  High levels of military spending correlate well with corruption and crime, as even America has killed muckraking journalists Michael Hastings and Gary Webb, who dared to take on the military industrial complex directly.  Militaristic America has a very low rating compared to other G7 countries by Reporters Without Borders, especially on so-called national security issues.

Displaces Economic Manufacturing

Opportunity Cost theory explains why diverting key resources away from the civilian based production cycle leads economies into stagnation.  Resources devoted to power politics are diverted from the normal focus on economic growth of the general civilian economy.  What you aim at is what you get.  The double negative of the destruction of your enemy is still a negative result, not a positive result, a destruction, not a construction.  The military achieves political ends, not economic ends.  Locally it is a good substitute for manufacturing, bringing money into a community, but the source of that money comes from other communities competing in the economic market place, sinking or swimming as products are either improved or become obsolete.  Manufacturing, construction, agriculture, and mining all suffer paying the taxes to support the military sector.  And these vital economic industries also suffer competition for talent with the overpaid engineers, managers, and workers in the military industry.  The whole economy suffers loss of capital investment and manufacturing productivity growth rate when there is a military buildup and prospers when there is a military builddown.  This constant negative of the military economy is easily offset with deficit spending, especially in wartime.  In recent decades in America, ever since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have created these deficits by pairing military buildups with tax cuts.  This has made the national debt grow dramatically over this period.

Models Confirm the Story

Modeling of the military economy shows essentially no economic growth results from that part of the economy.  Key resources like capital investment, scientists, and engineers all lead to economic growth in the normal economy, unless they are diverted to the military economy where their growth potential is stymied by the constraints of the military mission.  Manufacturing is turned into a service in the military sector losing almost all its economic growth potential in exchange for devotion to the national defense.  The modeling and studies clearly show the military changes drive changes in the economy.  This shows up in both international comparisons and regional comparisons within a country.  This leads to an accurate new model of long-term economic growth in the United States and Germany.  Thirteen correlations document how this applies to politics and the social decay of empires, even climate change.  Those thirteen correlations include eight that are 99% of a perfect fit and average 97% for all thirteen.  Combined, all these findings lead to new scientifically accurate models of economics and climate change.

Dead End Technology

Technology designed under conditions of secrecy and for too military specific purposes loses two thirds of its usefulness for the civilian economy.  Often such technology is driven to suit the political purposes of congressional committee chairs, party leaders, and the president.  These power figures usually serve the interests of their home state military industries and bases.  The purposes of power usually triumph over true merit-based achievement.  Having the best proposals for new weapons systems is less important than having the political clout of a home state’s congressional and presidential delegation.  Only ten percent of the military budget is for research, ninety percent is for hardware, supplies, troops, and the pentagon civilian bureaucracy.  Thus 90% of the military budget acts as inert economic filler for local economies, while most of the research component 10% rarely produces duo use products to use in the civilian economy.

Two Pages showing the 17 major claims of the Peace Economics research:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, December 21), “Technology Loser:  Military”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Technology-Loser:-Military,2018165803.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Born in the United States

Listening to various music on the plane back to America from Norway, Bruce Springsteen’s album “Born in the USA” inspired this Peace Economics approach to these song titles.

Working on the Highway

This song reminds me of the story of American on the rise.  United by the Civil War and ever expanding Westward, America started the twentieth century a rising industrial power with the largest economy in the world.  Frederick Taylor, inventing industrial engineering in the age of railroads in the 1890s, found out that productivity for laying railroads peaked at 64 degrees Fahrenheit.  As temperatures increase above that level proportionately less work gets done.  This shows how capital accumulation and the economy improves slightly with slightly lower temperatures or slows down slightly with slightly higher temperatures, as most capital, economic progress, and infrastructure starts with construction.  A century of data confirms these patterns.

 

Glory Days

This song about those that peaked in high school reminds me about America’s fixation with World War II (WWII) and the so-called Greatest Generation.  Yes, the Marshall Plan was infinitely better than the 1919 Versailles treaty which gave us WWII.  But even the Marshall Plan only supplied 10% of the internally generated capital in Japan and Germany in the 1950s.  Important startup capital, but low military spending was the real secret ingredient that gave both Japan and Germany average economic growth rates over 8% for the decade of the fifties.  They both thank America for democracy, especially the more modern parliamentary type, including Japan’s antiwar constitution and Germany’s equal representation with owners for workers on corporate boards.  Thanks America.  The military burdens of empire have held America back ever since WWII, hence the fixation with those glory days of the so-called good war.  Most wars ever since have ended badly.

Born in the USA

America’s 329 million includes 47 million immigrants, largely thanks to the 1965 Immigration Act. That’s 14.4% of the US population.  In the age of empire after 1945, immigrants have bolstered the economy with one Newsweek article suggesting that immigrants make about 2.5 times as much as other Americans.  This “all roads lead to Rome” keeps the American economy a world leader, despite the economic erosion of the highest military budget in the world.  Many physicians, dentists, lawyers, engineers, scientists, accountants, and rich businesspeople are among those immigrants often educated in the US and seeking to stay.  Meanwhile ever since the number one nuclear weapons contractor spokesperson Ronald Reagan tricked people into cutting the top tax rate 60% while only helping the middle class 15% in the name of a 25% tax cut, income inequality has quadrupled top 1% incomes while the 99% have had their incomes frozen for forty years.  Yes, that stagnancy even includes the rest of the top 5%.  And the real winners are the top 0.1%.  Only about 25% of immigrants are the poor South of the border type, and about 80% are legal.

I’m Going Down

Peace Economics shows strong international comparison correlations with high crime, corruption, and low health for the higher militarized economies.  This is the essence of the social decline of empire that accompanies the slow steady economic decline.  Even today political crisis pervades the three most militarized countries in NATO, America, Britain, and France.  Trump has disrupted America, Brexit befuddles Britain, and Macron’s elite policies with a blind spot to income inequality in France have created turmoil in all three countries.  All three have faced unwanted Russian interventions.  Meanwhile the most successful economy in Europe, Germany, has had up until now the lowest percentage of military spending at a mere 1%.  That 1% military has been the secret of success for pre-WWII America and post-WWII Japan.  The last three decades Japan has grown little while Japanese capital has brought up the whole Far East neighborhood, starting with the Four Tigers of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea and proceeding after that with China.  The Fujian province next to Hong Kong is where the high growth started in China in the 1980s.  Hong Kong was taking over China economically before China took over Hong Kong politically in 1999.  And low military Italy overtook Britain in 1987 in per capita income, the same year Japan passed America in per capita economy.  Then Britain found North Sea Oil, and Japan peaked in 1994 at 40% higher per capita income over America and has slumped to 25% higher in 2000 and continues to slump.

No Surrender

Americans famously used the Alamo “no surrender” policy to fend-off the Mexican army long enough to rally enough troops to defend Texas in 1845.  Much later, America adopted the unconditional surrender demand for fighting the tyrants of World War II.  Then the Republican Party took the idea too far, applying it in domestic politics, led by Newt Gingrich in 1994 as the first Republican Speaker of the House in forty years.  Extremism and the politics of personal destruction took hold after 46 years of the Cold War, ironically just after the Cold War ended.  But the excessive militarism of the long high military spending in peacetime years of the Cold War (1945-1991) had kind of baked into the cake the habits of empire.  So entwined was the nation in militarism that George H. W. Bush had to tempt a cash starved Iraq (drained by the Iran war) into trying to reclaim oil rich Kuwait as the 18th province separated from the rest of Iraq by the British in 1921.  He told his ambassador to Iraq to say the US didn’t care about border disputes after encouraging the Kuwaitis to slant drill underground for oil under the ground in Iraq.  Then he acted with outrage and rallied the UN to “free” Kuwait.  This saved the military from appearing irrelevant after the end of the Cold War, holding the Cold War defense budget cuts to 25% while Europe cut their forces 50%.  Empire was saved enough to be restored in the second Bush presidency after eight years of peace and prosperity.  Meanwhile, the second Democratic presidency after the Cold War was met with total noncooperation from the Republican Party and the Republican Party brought their Southern style politics North in 2010 to rebuke the first Black president.  Extremism was normalized, making Trump possible, in a new post-truth society of unlimited propaganda.  America had the equivalent of Caligula, the crazy emperor of Rome who lasted four years.

One Page Principles Summary of Peace Economics: https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p. 13

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, December 14), “Born in the United States”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Born-in-the-United-States,2018165532.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Rights and Climate Cycles

Examples will be cited and interrelated throughout this article, especially the events of the last two years in America, with important implications for the election next week.

Atmosphere is a term that can be used at least two ways.  It can be a social term or a natural events term.  Perhaps these two uses can be related.  Rights, especially human rights, can have many interpretations, in this article especially racial rights and women’s rights.  Social atmosphere evolves throughout the long term 54-year economic cycle, manifesting in a political events cycle as economic improvements lead to opportunities for changes in human rights.  Turning points occur every 27 years in the 54-year cycle, in all three aspects of the cycle, the natural events cycle, the economic cycle, and the political social cycle.

Year of the Woman, 2018 and 1992

Punctuated by the rejection of the first woman presidency and the election of a man committed to white male supremacy and male sexual privilege, the largest demonstration in American history occurred when women rallied the next day to protest the presidential inauguration, January 21, 2017.  That has led to this year of the Resistance with the possible election of over 100 women to the new congress which currently has 84 women in the House of Representatives.  The last year of the woman was 1992 after a controversial Supreme Court nomination in 1991.  The recent Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings of 2018 are an exact half cycle of 27 years after those 1991 Anita Hill sexually harassment charges against subsequently confirmed Justice Clarence Thomas, the Justice that never asks questions.  Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed on a straight party line vote with one exception each way, 51-49, despite credible allegations of attempted rape when he was age 17, 36 years ago in 1982.  Professor Catherine Blasey Ford has been traumatized for life by that event when she attended a party at age 15, as confirmed by lie detector test now and marriage counseling twelve years ago, and the double front door remodel years before that.  Other women have confirmed the high school and college year mean drunk sexually abusive days of the still beer loving Justice.  Typical frat boy story of male privilege.  In the words of the Justice, “What goes on at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep.”  Boys will be boys in the eyes of conservative rural women voters, but the normally conservative college educated wives in the suburbs have had enough (Me Too movement) and are voting for a new majority in congress with a 30% gender gap in voter preference overall.

Black Lives Matter

Colin Kaepernick, National Football League former Super Bowl starting quarterback who lost that game by only 3 points, 31-34, became a champion for Nike this year.  He was villainized by the extreme right wing and their President for his kneeling at the national anthem before a game to protest senseless police killings of black people.  Football refuses to rehire him (blackballing) since then at age 26.  The history starts with the Los Angeles Watts riot of 1965, then the Los Angeles Rodney King riots perfect half cycle 27 years later in 1992, leading to the Baltimore riots of 2015, the Kaepernick kneeling in 2016, and today’s rehiring of him as spokesperson for Nike this year in 2018, 26 years after the Rodney King riots.  Next week should elect a black man governor of Florida and maybe a black woman governor of Georgia.  This would come a perfect 54 years after the Nobel Peace Prize award to Martin Luther King, jr. in 1964.  The then record-breaking protest crowd of 230,000 in August 1963 featured King’s famous “I Have a Dream” speech, a cycle perfect 54 years later in 2017 the women’s march set a new protest record nationwide of 4 million.

Civil Rights Cycle

My jaw nearly dropped when the daughter of Brown in the landmark Brown vs Board of Education Supreme Court decision of 1954 recited prior landmark events that fit the 54-year cycle.  Here is my report on 3-29-14: “The daughter of the man named Brown in the famous Brown vs. Board of Education Supreme Court case (decided in 1954 when she was 4 years old) came to Madison, Wisconsin this week.  She spoke in Anderson Auditorium at the same Edgewood where I earned my High School Diploma and much later my Doctorate in Educational Leadership.  On her power point were two other epic events of the long civil rights struggle.  The first desegregation case was in 1849 vs. City of Boston.  Then came the famous “Separate but Equal” decision of Plessey vs. Ferguson in 1896.  Putting these all together with the election of the first Black President in 2008, you have four Kondratiev Wave points in a row.  The perfect 54-year cycle points would be 1846, 1900, 1954, and 2008.  The first two are three years late and four years early.  The last two are perfect fits, 1954 and 2008.”

Hurricane Cycles

The epic hurricanes of the last two years in America set various records and repeated various similar major hurricanes of cycle years past, mainly 54-year repeats or 27-year repeats, always using consistent regional comparisons.  The regional impact is important, otherwise there would be too many hurricanes to compare based only on dates. The major hurricane population event was CAT 4 Harvey hitting Houston in 2017 just 56 years after CAT 5 Carla hit Texas in 1961.  Harvey was much worse rain-wise with 30-inch-deep floods in the greater Houston area for days.  Then CAT 5 Irma 2017 hit the Keys and flooded downtown Miami with 8 feet of water, 25 years after CAT 5 Andrew hit Miami hard and 52 years after the 1965 Miami hurricane.  CAT 5 Maria devastates Puerto Rico and populated by brown people with no presidential vote, gets the least US relief aid, showing the President’s mainland Texas, Florida, and white bias. This is preceded by CAT 4 Hugo which clips Puerto Rico CAT 3 on the way to devastating North Carolina in 1989.  28 years (1 off 27-year half cycle) later Maria hits in 2017. 29 years (2 off 27-year half cycle) later CAT 4 Florence hits North Carolina with worse flooding than Hugo rain-wise.

This year 2018 CAT 4 Hurricane Lane hits Hawaii 26 years (1 off 27-year half cycle) after CAT 4 Iniki hits in 1992.  2018 CAT 5 Michael hits Florida panhandle very hard with tornado like winds: Alma CAT3 in 1966 weakens to CAT1, hits 52 years (2 short of 54) before, same place South of Tallahassee.  The difference was warmer global warming waters accelerate Michael this year while approaching coast weakened Alma in 1966, as both crossed the Caribbean.

Phony Trump Claims on Economy

Jobs growth for 2017 was at the lowest growth in six years, 20% below Obama average last five years after he withdrew from Iraq in 2011 and cut military spending 2012-2015.  Job growth so far for 2018 pro rata is 2.468 million slightly below the 2.5 million jobs per year for the last five Obama years. This suggests the tax cut has offset the military increase for no net effect.  Unemployment rates went up in 2009 and 2010 by 3.8% over 2008 because of the Great Recession.  After that Obama averaged an unemployment rate drop of 0.83% per year from 2011 to 2015.  Then the Obama drop in 2016 was only 0.42% due to the military buildup begun that year and continued and increased by Trump.  Trump has continued that low level of unemployment drop with 2017 drop 0.52% and 2018 drop pro rata of 0.56% so far.  The stock market gain was a natural rebound from the uncertainty of the election result holding back stocks in 2016.  With the uncertainty removed, the stock made up for lost growth right after the election.  Now stocks, which earlier benefited from the 70% stock buyback use of the tax cut (which only benefited stockowners and not the real economy) are suffering from the tariffs in agriculture and car manufacturing and the very small federal reserve interest rate increase,

Two Charted Pages Cataloging 56 Key Cycle History Repeat Events:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yrCycle_3p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 30), “Rights and Climate Cycles”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Rights-and-Climate-Cycles,2018163762.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Following Nobel Norwegians

Beginning 2016

When I first wrote Peace Economics in 1986, I had hoped to be recognized with the Nobel Peace Prize, but a friend of mine thought I should be nominated for the Pulitzer.  Neither happened for a very long time as I tried various ways to get the word out.  Recognition was sporadic for many years, then I finally earned a doctorate in 2009 and things started happening.  In 2013 I began a press release campaign using the ExpertClick.com vehicle to reach 7000 members of the press.  In five years, I’ve had 160,000 views of my 200 press releases.  After two years of work on this project, I asked for my followers to nominate me for the Nobel Peace Prize in January 2016 a couple of weeks before the February 1 deadline.  An old friend came through for me and I sought a second nomination to separate me from the pack of over 300 nominees.  That seemed to work when suddenly something unusual happened on my website.  The website shows view totals for each release whenever I check it.  I check it several times a day and divide the day in thirds for my records.  Suddenly the totals of all 50 of my most current releases showed an increase of one about 9am February ,2, 2016 Norway time.  Apparently, I was being checked out by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.  Excited, I sent them a copy of my 40-minute video with a 24-page booklet enclosed of the latest compact version of my work Peace Economics.  This led to 22 views from France that had also never happened before on the WordPress.com website.  I did not expect France instead of Norway, but it turns out one of the committee was working in Strasbourg, France as Secretary General of the Council of Europe.  He also was educated in economics, the natural one to vet the Peace Economist.  And my email preceding the video shipment had mentioned “proof of peace economics” which was one visit to the home page of my WordPress.com site in March 2016 and 21 months back to July 2014 to that press release.

Silence Before the 2017 Award

Nothing much happened after the February March 2016 initial burst of interest until the twelve days before the 2017 announcement.  Then a new pattern of looking at the most recent 24 releases emerged three times, on Saturday afternoon Europe time 12 days before, Monday evening Europe time 10 days before, and the Thursday night before the 2017 announcement.  This looked like two people on the five-member committee double-checking first then searching for a third vote the night before.  Although the 2017 award to ICAN made some sense because of the prominence of the nuclear weapons issue thanks to North Korea and Trump, it was largely ignored by the world press.  Hence some misgivings about that award would justify looking for another recipient.

Emerging Favorite with 2018 Award

This third year has been amazing as the new pattern of reading the latest 24 press releases has repeated itself about 48 times compared to twice the first year and three the second year.  Despite not getting the award this year, clearly, I’ve reached the short list of favorite nominees.  In the year of the ME-TOO movement of women, it was logical to give the award to activists against the use of rape as a weapon of war. Perhaps my time will come in a year of world recession or war.  Cyber war, the war on democracy, the war on crime, the war on injustice and inequality, the war on climate change, the war on immigrants and refugees, the war on poverty, are all topics worthy of consideration for an award.  I have shown how many of those are related to high levels of military spending.  My two new scientific theories of economics and climate change all feed into the second clause in Nobel’s will about “reduction of armies” as a goal for the Peace Prize.  Reducing armies’ fights poverty and strengthens the national economy while reducing tensions and making a nation more immune to attack.  Clearer understanding of climate change mechanisms leads to a better understanding of both natural threat cycles and war cycles.  Knowing when hurricanes tend to repeat in a geographic area leads to better preparation.  Knowing when major wars tend to occur between major economic powers leads to better management of defense resources.  Less uncertainty leads to lower levels of armaments.  Of the 48 “hard looks” at my work this last year, the patterns are revealing.  Interest starts slow and accelerates over the course of the year.  In the fourth quarter of 2017 only two.  In the first quarter of 2018 ten hard looks.  In the second quarter of 2018 sixteen hard looks.  In the crucial third quarter of 2018 twenty hard looks before the announcement.  Interest in my candidacy by the committee has never been higher than right now.

Others Showing Interest Online

In the very first year of these press releases, October 2013, multiple site viewers made five views on academia.edu October 20-22 indicating interest by the Pentagon (Alexandria, Virginia) in my climate cycle theory.  This makes sense because the Pentagon is worried about global warming leading to many new conflicts around the world.  Then October 28-30 the CIA showed interest in my military economic theories with eight views from various sites but mostly Fairfax, Virginia.

Then Google started showing lots of interest with 76 views over five years 2013-2018, seventy from Mountain View, California.  Those Google views were mostly in 2015 and 2016 with 65 in those years.

Future Possibilities

Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize 179 years after the scientific discovery of the greenhouse effect.  Copernicus so feared retribution by the church that his work was not published until his daughter found it upstairs in the attic after his death.  Gandhi never won a Nobel Peace Prize because he died before it could be awarded.  Yoko Ono said on the 30th anniversary of John Lennon’s death that 1 million homicides had occurred in America since that day.  My finding that homicide rates are proportional to a nation’s military spending percentage of the economy suggests that cutting military spending in half could cut homicides in half, saving 500,000 lives over that thirty-year period.  That fact alone looks to me comparable to creating peace in a war that cost 500,000 lives over thirty years in Columbia. Using economic incentives to reduce military spending worldwide should reduce both the tendency to have war and the human cost of wars.  How valuable is that?  Understanding that the solar energy imbalances caused by different evaporation rates over oceans and lands affects natural disasters, economics, and wars with untold costs to humankind.  Better understanding of this cycle could save many thousands of lives every year.  How valuable is that?  How much more important is it to change these patterns now than to wait another year or two for a timely event to justify such an award?

Ten Pages Showing 56 Power Point Frames of Key Lectures:

https://www.academia.edu/36620474/Good_Concepts_May_2018_Update_Ten_Pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 8), “Following Nobel Norwegians”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Following-Nobel-Norwegians,2018162846.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Valuable Peace Economics

What I call Peace Economics is an evolution of ideas that spring from reassessing the false theory that military spending stimulates the economy.  What is revolutionary about this idea is the mathematical certainty of the models that verify it and the long shadow of internal political, social, defense, and historical consequences that spring directly from the military economy.

Military Spending Hurts the National Economy (#1 Idea)

This first finding surprised me so much because I had assumed that military Keynesianism showed that military spending helped the economic growth rate.  But Ruth Sivard’s work so contradicted that knowledge I had been taught at college that I instantly shared her bar charts all over the State of Oregon Legislature.  Finding that others did not share my clear vision and enthusiasm led to the exhaustive tests and proofs that she was right that I eventually named Peace Economics.  The peace movement was seemingly just as deluded as the economists, politicians, and journalists.  The peace movement was principally concerned only two ways, about nuclear weapons and about human rights.   This central finding led to a new economic theory, proof of the Kondratiev Wave (54 yr.), and proof of the Juglar Cycle (8-10 yr.).  Keynes and Roosevelt had already proven the economic stimulus value of the national deficit.  It has been a long heavy lift to establish the other three basic points, just as Thomas Kuhn’s Structure of a Scientific Revolution would predict.

Military Spending Hurts the National Defense (#2 Idea)

My second book title, Strength Through Peace, conveys this concept.  While defenders of the military industrial complex often resort to the slogan Peace Through Strength, I find that slogan very misleading.  The real power of a nation lies in its economic strength even more than its military strength.  The short-term benefits of military spending are usually meager compared to the steady erosion of economic strength military spending causes.  In fact, because of Idea #1 above, premature high levels of military spending when threats are relatively low only serve the purpose of gradually weakening a nation when a major threat shows up some time later.  The longer the interval before a real military need emerges, the greater the weakening rendered by excessively high premature levels of military spending.  The Defense Strategy chapter of my 1986 book Peace Economics shows some of the trade-off charts used to estimate appropriate levels of military spending for the longer term or even for the shorter-term strategies.

Military Spending Dominates and Controls a Nation (#3 Idea)

This shows up in the regional nature of changes in military spending. What crystalizes this as a mathematical relationship is looking at the degree of militarization of a state’s economy and lumping states together in one region based on major metropolitan centers that can pull several states together into a mini-region.  Thus, the military states concept shows how politics in the United States is dominated by the military industrial complex.  All of America’s leading political institutions are dominated by figures from the high military spending states and regions.  That includes about 80% of the presidents since World War II, 80% of the cabinet, 80% of congressional leadership, and 80% of the supreme court.  The misleading positive correlation with military spending regionally fails to recognize the losses in manufacturing states under military buildups and the gains in manufacturing states under military builddowns. In other words, the nation as a whole gains when the military lowers and the nation as a whole loses when the military is increased.  This contrast shows up most sharply between the Great Lakes states industrial heartland versus the high military and financial states of the bi-coastal economy.  Great opportunities exist in the financial markets to exploit these regional differences whenever a major change in military spending occurs.

Episodic Nature of Major Wars and Economic and Natural Events (#4 Idea)

The Kondratiev Wave, 54-year cycle, shows up precisely as a perfectly sinusoidal fluctuation in the manufacturing productivity growth rate in the 63-year model mentioned in Idea #1.  After the 1988 drought in the United States I took three years to figure out the natural connection to this cycle and the war cycle.  After hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012, I created a chart of 56 major natural, economic, and war event examples of the cycle, with about 95% accuracy. I also established the connecting mechanisms between these three different forms of the cycle.  This is a great achievement that will improve forecasting for hurricanes, great recessions, and wars.  This makes possible a rational reduction in military spending as part of a national defense strategy.  Millions will benefit from improved forecasting of economic and natural disasters and wars might even be avoided when their causes are better understood as part of this long cycle.

Empire Decline and Socioeconomic Decay (#5 Idea)

My 1989 work first showed the murder and crime correlations with military spending.  This is a leading indicator of the social decay that occurs with prolonged levels of high military spending in a nation and shows up in the sharp drop in crime that occurred in the nineties with the end of Cold War high levels of military spending.  This also helps explain how crime has dropped in Germany and other European countries much more than in the United States in the twenty-first century, thanks to the post 9-11-01 military buildup and wars waged by the United States.  In fact, the Index created in the Spirit Level book shows that empire and military spending correlate even stronger than income inequality with obesity, mental health, teen birthrates, prisoners, and homicides.  The theory of empire that blames collapse on moral weakness has it backwards.  High military spending changes change the economy in the same year they occur, showing that the economic effect occurs first before the social effects, just as crime drops in the nineties took several years to take hold rather than happening immediately.  Cause and effect require a closer look than just watching correlations.  Military spending is the first domino to fall in the long process of manufacturing decline and social decay of empire. Rigidity is a result of the ensuing stagnation.  Stagnation comes in many forms, from political, to class rigidity, and the lack of social mobility.

Twelve Stages of Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 1), “Valuable Peace Economics”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Valuable-Peace-Economics,2018162572.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Spectrum Peace Economics

This is looking at the invisible (beyond the first fifty) press release views on ExpertClick.com from 51 to 198.  These show increased results from the last year and are quite instructive.  Name, date, new views and rank of new views.

CIA Presidents, 1-23-16, 267 views (#1)

This drew the top interest.  Few know that Presidents Clinton and Obama worked for the CIA prior to being elected president, and, no doubt it was a major contributing factor to their success.  To be elected emperor requires either coming from a high military spending state or the CIA.   The other CIA president, George Bush Sr., was appointed CIA director under Ford “despite his lack of CIA experience.”  Evidence shows he was CIA circa 1963 in Dallas.  Obama went to Pakistan twice 1981-83, the staging ground for the Afghanistan War by the CIA against Russia.  Clinton’s home state of Arkansas was ground zero for factories contributing to the eighties Contra War in Nicaragua.  See also CIA lifetime history, 4-16-16, 117 views (#26)

Earthquake Prediction, 8-26-14, 261 views (#2)

Earthquake prediction and especially hurricane prediction are important components of the natural 54 year cycle theory, a key to the 63 year US economic model, and the timing of major wars (US, Europe, and Rome).  War prediction enables a country to take advantage of peace economics to keep military spending minimal (and growth high) during more peaceful periods (circa 1977 to 2004, circa 2031 to 2058) and to better prepare for the circa 2025 major war.  See also Nepal Chile 4-28-15, 185 views (#7) and Violence Cycle, 11-29-15, 172 views (#10) and Cycle Matters, 8-3-14, 118 views (#25).

Nobel Prize Watch, 3-19-16, 254 views (#3)

This summarizes my early attempts to watch the Norwegian Nobel Committee watch me after my first nomination due 2-1-16.  The near miss in 2017 and the “ten times normal” heavy watching this year in 2018 make me very optimistic about October 5th.  See also Response Norway, 2-6-16, 130 views (#18)

Religion and Empire, 1-3-15, 207 views (#4)

Some have estimated that as much as 63% of wars have religion as a main cause.  My point in this release was that the Roman Empire coopted Christianity and put a lesser importance on doctrines of the peaceful shall inherit the earth, live by the sword and die by the sword, good Samaritan, and turn the other cheek.  Also that the Roman Catholic church became the first protestant church when Rome asserted authority over the four other Pentarchy centers of the early Chistian church, Alexandria, Constantinople, Jerusalem, and Antioch.  Note that half the leaders of communes in first two hundred years of the early church were women, before patriarchy took over.  Empire and militarism promote patriarchy.  See also Modern Feudalism, 2-21-15, 115 views (#28)

Football Baseball War, 5-28-16, 206 views (#5)

American football with its heavy emphasis on militaristic terms and practices, supplants baseball as America’s top sport during the Cold War.  Meanwhile demilitarized Japan adopts baseball as its top sport.  Empire militarizes the culture of a country.

Walker Work Dignity, 2-28-15, 193 views (#6)

This talks about the 500,000 people of the Wisconsin uprising who protested the taking away of public union and teacher trade union rights in a right wing takeover by Governor Walker of Wisconsin after the 2010 election.  The protest lasted four weeks long, taking over the state capital with at least 10,000 people every day protesting and crowds up to 150,000 on the four Saturdays.  Anti-union is a sign of empire or fascism.  The move was a sneak attack by the far right in an attempt to gut support for the other political party.

10 Scientific Revolution Facts, 2-28-15, 174 views (#8)

Scientific Revolution, 2-28-15, 173 views (#9)

These two combined would actually be #1 with 347 views.  These ten facts adopted from Thomas Kuhn’s book illustrate the difficulties of getting recognition for a new scientific paradigm.  In the case of Peace Economics, economists believe a science of economics is not possible.  In the Copernican Revolution, the church persecuted Galileo.  This has been my story for the last thirty years or so.

Eugene Politician, 5-14-14, 166 views (#11)

This is the political career I was following until I discovered Peace Economics.  My goals then changed to seek scientific glory instead of political glory.  Served thirteen years 1980-93 on the State Central Committee of the Democratic Party of Oregon, Congressional District Chair 1982-1987, National delegate 1984, and invited to Clinton inaugural 1993.  Starting two new fields, Peace Economics and Natural Cycle Theory, will save countless lives, with “reduced military spending” leading to less wars, more prosperity, and lower murder and crime rates.  Not to mention, better stock market opportunities, less political corruption, and better long term hurricane forecasts among other benefits of empire and cycle theory.

Grandpa Horicon Marsh, 3-1-14, 148 views (#14)

My heritage includes the grandfather who as State Senator funded the Horicon Marsh dam in 1927, third largest wildlife refuge in America.  My mother’s third cousin was President Kennedy, and my father’s third cousin founded Villanova Law School.  I’m a sixth generation descendent of the Bishop of York 1776 John Markham.  Direct descendent of Claron de Marsham, top general of William the Conqueror 1066.

10 Ferguson Jury Mistakes, 12-6-14, 146 views (#16)

This account of the murder of Michael Brown starting the Black Lives Matter movement “hands up don’t shoot” clearly explains how and why the jury made a huge mistake.  Colin Kaepernick sacrificed his NFL career to take a knee at football games.  See also Baltimore Riot, 5-2-15, 103 views (#38)

Violent Society, 7-23-16, 118 views (#23)

Military Terror Policing, 8-17-14, 108 views (#33)

This explains the militarization of America’s police forces used to quell protests in Ferguson.  Another case of the deepening of empire over time in America.

Low Military Defense, 12-5-15, 102 views (#41)

This is the key peace economics concept:  that too much too soon military spending is actually counterproductive to defending a nation, because:  the ultimate defense depends on the size of nation’s economy and excessive military spending steadily erodes that crucial economic strength.  An alternative title could be “Real Politics Re-Invented”.

Seventeen Key Findings and Claims of Peace Economics over thirty years:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, September 21), “Spectrum Peace Economics”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Spectrum-Peace-Economics,2018162207.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Militarism Distorts America

The United States of America has changed a lot since World War II.  Some changes were immediate, some changes took a generation or more to sink in.  Military spending, my preferred empirical measure of empire, is the prime factor for almost all of these major changes in US society.  All of my various models show that military spending has negligible or no benefit for the economy.  It acts like lost capital investment, lost manufacturing, as the resources going into the military deplete civilian manufacturing elsewhere in America, especially depleting the Great Lakes industrial economy of the heartland.  This last part is clearly shown by regional models.  These economic changes then distort America in many ways, political, social, moral, sapping the energy and enthusiasm of all Americans as a whole.  This is what I call the “social decay of empire.”  It includes rising crime, rising income inequality, less social mobility, growing apathy, and rising anxiety and depression.  Stagnation sets in economically first, then stagnation contributes to political gridlock over time.  Fortunately empire decay is not inevitable, lowering military spending can reverse course.  But many of the social time lags can persist generationally, even while economic growth changes annually.

Similar Systems

The empire system is similar to two others:  the medieval system and the third world system.  All three systems are characterized by high military spending, high income inequality, and authoritarian power structures.  The church and ideology gain strength in such systems while science and innovation suffer.  Social mobility suffers as rigidity is favored in class based systems of power and opportunities.  Crime, poor health, drugs, gambling, red tape and escapist entertainment rise under such systems, reflecting widespread alienation and apathy.  Power and control are favored in such systems over achievement and individual merit.

Challenger Systems

Achievement is more evident than power as a prime motive of the emerging power of a challenger society.  Left alone to develop or separated by large bodies of water, societies can grow more powerful and economically strong until they are ready to sneak up on the reigning hegemonic or empire society.  Major wars of the 54 year cycle type are often between the number one economic power and the number two economic power.  Note that the economic strength is usually more important than the military strength.  Moving up the economic ladder of nations requires keeping the military low and minimal, a strategy that fits the “reduction of armies” clause in Alfred Nobel’s will as the second of three ways to earn a Nobel Peace Prize.  This also fits the biblical verse of the Sermon on the Mount of “blessed are the peacemakers for they shall inherit the earth.”  Aligning the motives of the powerful and the peacemakers is a great way to achieve world peace.

Engineering is important to an emerging society to meet its goals.  Lawyering is important to the more stable empire society, because a slow growth society will naturally have more conflicts as boundaries are defined and defended.  In the high growth society such boundary disputes look like a waste of time compared to pioneering the next great step forward.  This leads to achievement, engineering, merit, and innovation being valued over power, control, position, and legal boundaries.

Warfare Systems

War is the easiest and quickest way to take away a large number of lives.  The ultimate power is to take away another life.  Valuing your friends over your enemies leads to a certain tolerance of civilian collateral damage in the process.  This relative carelessness carries over into civilian life in an empire culture with a similar devaluing of “others” such as crime victims or other ethnic groups and genders.  Alienation and separation from others makes crime more likely, just as economic stagnation makes some people more desperate.  The fear based brain and the rational brain correspond to the power oriented and achievement oriented societies respectively.  Violence crime and corruption are fellow travelers of the fear based brain empire societies.  Doing whatever you can get away with under the law is a corruption of doing whatever is fair and best for everyone concerned.  Thus it is no accident that the highest military spending per capita US states were the leaders in the corruption of mortgages that resulted in the Great Recession of 2008.

Timing Factor

Economics is clearly the driving factor in empires, as changes in military spending change the economic growth rate in the same year.  Great Recession data even suggests the military economic change shows up quarterly.  The 1982 recession starts in July 1981 suggesting the anticipation of the fiscal year 1982 military buildup began then with congressional committee budget decisions essentially completed that month.  Then defense contractors started hiring in July 1981 draining key talent away from civilian businesses to begin the recession as those civilian businesses start to collapse.  On the other hand, crime rates dropping after the end of the Cold War in 1989-1991 suggest a five year delay between military spending changes and crime rate changes, suggesting that the formative years before age 18 are crucial to crime statistics.  Elementary teachers can spot the at risk students immediately and criminal activity can begin before age 18, so maybe a 9 or 11 year moving average of military spending maybe better correlate with the crime changes.  Likewise, crime does not move up immediately with the Iraq War bulge in US military spending.  Still peaceful Germany lowers its crime rate about 20% relative to the US rate over than time period (2003-2011 inclusive) of the nine year US war.  The end of Cold War military budget cuts were much deeper in Europe than in America dropping crime rates in Europe.  Income inequality quadrupled in three decades and social mobility was made much worse over time after the 1981 Reagan tax cut dropped the top tax rate 60% (mainly affecting the top 1%) while only cutting the middle class tax rates 15%.   The Yankee ingenuity confident America of its first two centuries seemed to dissipate after the Vietnam War while at the same time locking in the empire attitude with the two generation long Cold War.  Trump shook up the international structure politically while preserving the empire economically with a military budget increase.  Lowering the military budget after the Iraq War withdrawal in 2011 increased job growth for the last five Obama years.  Trump’s military buildup stalled that job growth in 2017.  Job growth in the last five Obama years was 25% higher than Trump’s first year, making that year 2017 the worst job growth of the last six years.

Findings and Special Claims over 33 years of military economy research:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, August 14), “Militarism Distorts America”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Militarism-Distorts-America,2018160716.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

 

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