Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the tag “Engineering”

Recession Elects Trump 2016


Trump was elected by a manufacturing recession that impacted the so-called “Blue Wall” of the upper Midwest manufacturing states.  This recession was a result of the military buildup in Obama’s last year sharply reversing the military budget cuts of the 2012-2015 period.  Because military and manufacturing are opposites in economic growth and jobs and regional impact this happened.  Because Obama Clinton and Carter all believed in military Keynesianism, all three mistakenly began military buildups in their last years thinking that could help the Democratic ticket, but instead leading to recessions in the election year that elected three Republicans.  Ohio Michigan Wisconsin and Indiana and are four of the top five manufacturing states per capita with Pennsylvania not far behind those four.  Correlation on this (details below), R=-.94 (2012-2016).

Election 2020

The next election is already showing the coming manufacturing recession from Trump’s trade wars, as GM shuts down Cruz production in Youngstown Ohio and Trump greatly accelerated the small Obama military buildup by about $100 billion dollars.  The temporary economic relief due to the 2018 tax cuts has been more than offset by these events.  The outsider benefit to Trump of these events in 2016 will hurt Trump now that he is the insider and will be held responsible for the manufacturing recession in the upper Midwest states.  Trump could even lose Ohio, the most manufacturing oriented of the eight traditional largest states.

Year    Millions         Change          Billions $

Sept    Mfg Jobs       In Jobs          Military Change

2009   11.591

2010   11.563            -.028

2011   11.769            .206

2012   11.954            .185                -46.55

2013   12.056            .102                -25.09

2014   12.226             .170                -29.79             R= -.94 (2012-2016)

2015   12.350            .124                -13.89

2016   12.344            -.006               +15.17

Military Buildup Manufacture Recession Elects Trump

2017   12.467            .123

2018   12.733            .266    Tax Cut Stimulus Stops in January 2019

2019   12.850            .117    first 4 months    .093            Tariffs     last 8 months   .024

Manufacturing Jobs In Recent Years

Midwest and the Military full story:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, October 10), “Recession Elects Trump 2016” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: 2016,2019195749.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,




Logic of the Peace Economy

Press Conference on the Nobel Peace Prize

Noon CDT on Friday October 11th, 2019.

Sequoya Library, 4340 Tokay Blvd Madison, WI 53711



Carefully restructuring Keynes (1936) with the military economy findings of Ruth Sivard (1981) and Reuschlein (1986) and the cyclical findings of Nicolai Kondratiev (1926) and Clement Juglar (1858) leads to a new scientific and accurate model of macroeconomics, including a precision model of 77 years in the United States economy.  That constitutes a finding that military spending is lost capital investment to any nation’s economy.  That finding forces a re-examination of how best to defend the nation state.  A 2% annual loss of economic growth (or capital investment) over a 36-year period can cut a nation’s economy in half.  Thus in about a third of a century, excessive military spending can severely weaken a nation.  This demands a reevaluation of national strategy, to keep a skeletal amount of military spending during long periods of peace between major wars.  This alone represents a giant step towards world peace, because the world will have less war damage when it has lower military spending, and less temptation to engage in minor wars when the military option is recognized for its true cost.  Less military means less domestic military economy pressure to justify higher levels of the military budget by use or to meet political power play demands; i.e. less military, less wars, less tension, less political corruption.

Other Major Spinoffs of the Military Economy

Cutting military spending has significant long-term national security benefits, but also avoids a lot of evils of empire.  Many similarities exist among dictatorships, Third World countries, Medievalism, Fascism, and Empire.  Thus many evil ramifications result from militarism and particularly measured by the high level of military spending.  For example, Rome started out as a Republic and ended up a dictatorship, especially as the military was professionalized becoming increasing expensive over time.  America is undergoing a similar pattern, as the Republic and congress is increasingly dominated by the foreign policy of the military presidency.  Sports have become more militarized as Romans took to watching gladiators and Americans have taken to American football with its heavy militaristic parallels throughout the game and its heavy physical toll on the players.  Crime and corruption are strongest in the strongholds of militarism and the military economy domestically and internationally compared to other advanced democracies.  Power and control become dominant values instead of the value of achievement.  Social mobility dies out as the stagnation of wage growth becomes the norm in the slow growth economy.  Whether it is Hollywood, the media, or the political structure, more and more positions seem more inherited than earned.  Obesity, mental health, longevity, teenage births and infant mortality all suffer as anxiety steadily increases over time.

Long Cycle Dominates Planet

The Kondratiev Wave is essential to the long-term precision United States economic model of 77 years.  That model uses a 54-year cycle modelled by a sine wave with an amplitude of 3% of the economy, further confirmed by the 8-10 year Juglar cycle found seven times in the model.  Further the 160-year global temperature show a 55-year moving average has three straight lines before 1910, from 1910 to 1973, and after 1973.  Economic growth shrinks with 27-year heat waves and increases with 27-year cool waves and wars peak at the end of the growth cycle as national economic disparities and wealth have maximized.  The hot cycle ends with major droughts and the (relative) cool cycle begins with major floods.  Hurricanes follow the cycle but on a regional basis, best focused on major cities.  Linear forecasts based on the Greenhouse Effect would be greatly improved by recognizing this cycle.

Listing of 17 major Peace Economics findings:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, October 10), “Logic of the Peace Economy” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019195272.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (more than double pace of last year: 127 Strong Web Looks in 12 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 11th, 2019.



Academia Paper Views Ranked

Overall These 80 listed papers included some power-points, collections, and chapters.  The first one is an overall findings summary, followed by the leading two in downloads, weather cycle, and then followed in order by greatest number of viewings.  One sentence introductions are given above each link.

Paper 1 gives the 17 great findings that led to all the other new material (61 views):

Paper 2 shows the fifty states economic and political power of the military industrial complex (188 views):

Paper 3 shows the evolution of Gary Gygax and wargames into D&D and Reuschlein War Theory (254 views):

History of Gary Gygax and War Economy, May June 2017, 8 p.(136 downloads-#2)

Paper 4 shows new climate theory and cycle evidence (311 views):

Paper 5 shows 13 correlations that define my military, empire, and cycle research (356 views):

Paper 6 shows how militarized our police forces have become and economic racial impact (248 views):

Paper 7 shows how empire economic and politics evolve over time (170 views).

Paper 8 shows how a 55 year moving average defines the temperature chart (168 views).

Paper 9 shows wargame connections between Reuschlein & Gygax, the D&D inventor (157 views).

Paper 10 shows the close connection between murder and military rates nationally (142 views).

Paper 11 shows the chart and print version of my 40 minute video on Peace Economics (139 views).

Paper 12 shows 56 numerical examples of the 54 year cycle (137 views):

Paper 13 shows the 7-20-13 ppt used at the World Future Society (124 views):

Paper 14shows the Political Economy listing in the SAGE Encyclopedia of War (120 views):

Paper 15 shows my entire 2009 doctoral dissertation (112 Views):

Paper 16 shows my award winning letter to a Chicago area peace group (109 views):

Paper 17 shows partial ppt for each of my main focal points (96v):

Paper 18 shows the ppt presentation of my science of economics model in Toronto (95v):

Paper 19 shows the 11 press releases on the military economy issue (94v):

Paper 20 shows the pathway to the Nobel Prize and follows evidence of their interest (93v):

Paper 21 shows the cultural connection between war empire and sports violence (88v):

Paper 22 shows the pattern of social decay that springs from military empire (85v):

Paper 23 shows synopsis and related info about a Peace Economics class (82v):

Paper 24 shows ppt and related material that leads to my main points (77v):

Paper 25 shows the nine fields that compose my interdisciplinary background (71v):

Paper 26 shows the key documentary pages of the original Peace Economics book (66v):

Paper 27 shows my number one viewed press release (64v):

Paper 28 shows the contrast between my theory and that of most peace studies (62v):

Paper 29 shows my second paper at Telos Institute (61v):

Paper 30 shows several of the best press releases on the topic of Empire (60v).

Paper 31 is very popular overseas for some reason (58v):

Paper 32 shows how Southern Business Professors can be won over to Peace Economics (58v):

Paper 33 from the unpublished work in progress book (57v):

Paper 34 from 4 years of Sunday Afternoons with “Teachings of Jesus” bibles and concordances (55v).

Paper 35 summary papers about murder crime and violence in an empire society (53v):

Paper 36 how military states candidates dominate America (53v).

Paper 37 hundred year details of how precision peace economics plays out (50v).

Paper 38 from SAGE Encyclopedia of War and recommended by academic with 1 million views (47v):

Paper 39 Reuschlein curve and other ways to manage military budget with peace economics (45v):

Paper 40 both key theories in one place (45v):

Paper 41 puts the “con” in conservative, how Dems were robbed two elections in a row (45v).

Paper 42 press releases that give technical support to peace economics (44v):

Paper 43 how a militarized culture demands militarized sports (43v).

Paper 44 civilizations rise and fall with long term temperature changes (42v).

Paper 45 collected works on the path to the peace prize (40v):

Paper 46 describes key evidence about peace economics (40v).

Paper 47 why military hated Kennedy enough to kill him (39v).

Paper 48 collection of press releases on the topic (39v).

Paper 49 even interest rates are proportional to military spending in the late nineties (39v).

Paper 50 economists have given up on the search for a science (38v).

Paper 51 semester long three credit class synopsis plus (38v).

Paper 52 how the Peace Prize could lead to Physics and Economics Prizes, first ever threesome (37v).

Paper 53 lyrics lead the way (37v).

Paper 54 featured speaker at 70th anniversary (35v).

Paper 55 political economic cycle reasons for war (33v).

Paper 56 first domino military economics leads to many social ills of empire (32v).

Paper 57 just the facts for those who erroneously think war brought us out of Depression (31v).

Paper 58 general peace economics theory (31v).

Paper 59 detailed analysis of older responses to my press release and other work (30v).

Paper 60 making peace economics a degree program (29v).

Paper 61 there’s more to global warming than just greenhouse effect (28v).

Paper 62 cold blooded murder is given new meaning (28v).

Paper 63 fees may be subject to prizes won (27v).

Paper 64 Lucy Webster (famous world federalist) was an early fan and editor of this (25v):

Paper 65 number phobia is rampant (90%) in the world (22v).

Paper 66 Manufacturing is to the Midwest as military and financial is to the coastal states (20v).

Paper 67 the second most important work after Peace Economics 1986 was in 1991 (18v).

Paper 68 How I followed the rush by the Nobel Committee to follow me (18v).

Paper 69 How three different cycles become one (18v):

Paper 70 Evaporation in unequal over land and ocean, and energy must be balanced in a cycle (16v).

Paper 71 military is unhealthy for even the peacetime people (16v).

Paper 72 early years of this press release format (16v).

Paper 73 “othering” leads to wars and leads to killing those who are black (11v).

Paper 74 Flyover country once lead the way to American prosperity (11v).

Paper 75 climate change leads to economic change, heat slows us all down (10v).

Paper 76 the states respond politically to the military budget (8v). 

Paper 77 “hands up don’t shoot” verified by prosecutor on December 4th radio cast (8v).

Paper 78 early evaluation of audience interests (8v).

Paper 79 normal 20 year cooling period reduced to 15 years by global warming (8v).

Paper 80 Hurricane Harvey leads the burst of super-hurricanes that all follow cycle pattern (0v).

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 30), “Academia Paper Views Ranked” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019195013.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 125 Strong Web Looks in 12 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.




Summer 2019 Leading Views

Overall These 2016-2017 older Press Releases long dropped from the current 50 list were the most in demand this summer from July 9 to September 20.  Here are summaries of the top 11 older releases for these 73 days.  4470 views total non-current added views to 180 older releases.

Texas Hurricane “Harvey”  8-27-17 (90 views)

Harvey, 56 years after Carla in 1961 is only two years long from a perfect 54 year cycle, these are the most recent two category four hurricanes to land on Texas.  Harvey threatens to stay on the coast for a week and dump 52 inches of rain over Houston, double prior records, much more devastating, as water is usually more devastating in a hurricane than wind.  This could be worse than Katrina or Sandy in overall impact.  This rainfall exceeded the Hugo levels in 1989 in North Carolina, where 12 inches of rain matches the monthly rainfall total of September 1934 in North Carolina, the same month 55 years before.

Deep Politics of Iraq War 6-4-16 (75 views)

In danger of proving that all weapons of mass destruction had been eliminated, Operation Desert Fox was launched in December 1998.  When Saddam retaliated by kicking the inspectors out of Iraq, the US preserved the illusion that some weapons of mass destruction remained keeping Hussein in his box of sanctions.

Fraud in the Iraq War of 2003, The False War Resolution of October 2002 The war resolution requires the president to certify two things before launching a war.  One was there was a threat of weapons of mass destruction, and two that there was a connection to the attacks on September 11, 2001.  The Downing Street Memos show than Tony Blair and George Bush agreed to invade Iraq in April 2002.  Bombing doubled the rate in May 2002.  In August, Cheney started talking about nuclear weapons, the one thing inspectors agreed had been 100% eliminated in 1998.

Football Baseball and War 5-28-16 (65 views)

World War II changed everything.  Japan was forced to demilitarize, adopting a constitution against war.  They adopted baseball as their number one sport.  In 2015 on our trip to Japan that year, we saw from the train numerous fields of baseball players practicing all over Japan.  In the sixties, with glorification of World War II everywhere in the culture, America began to prefer football over baseball as the new number one sport.  Now, traveling in America, kids practicing football can be seen all over.

NFL Football Mimics War 10 reasons are cited in the press release, even comparing Roman Gladiators with NFL Football Players.

Teaching Peace Economics  9-4-17 (61 views)

Living with Thomas Kuhn’s Insights When Thomas Kuhn wrote “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” he gave me the guideposts to understanding the resistance of those in the world around me when I came out with my first strong findings in my short book “Peace Economics” in 1986.

Resistance to New Ideas I have been amazed at the insularity of many forums at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.  Your status at the University is much more important than your ideas for most of them.  This stands in sharp contrast to places like Oxford or Cambridge where independent scholars are welcome and appreciated at their numerous forums.

Thirty Year Class Warfare 10-18-16 (58 views)

Who knew when they voted for Ronald Reagan that they would be voting for thirty years of class warfare?  Ronald Reagan’s budget director David Stockman wrote a tell all book explaining that the three year fazed in tax cut was a “Trojan Horse” for bringing the top tax rate on the rich down from 70% to 28%.  We now know the top 1% have quadrupled their income and stifled the middle class thanks to Reagan policies.

SAGE Military Keynesianism shows that the problem with military spending is that it overpays and gets the best and brightest scientists and engineers and then does not give a product back into the economic mainstream.  Military resources deplete investment capital reducing the economic growth rate.

Living History of the CIA 4-16-16 (56 views)

Gary Webb came to Madison on his book tour after his “Dark Alliance” series in the San Jose Mercury News.  I asked why the press was so hard on him, and he responded that the CIA had a program called Operation Mockingbird to co-opt the press.  He further stated that the Church Committee of the seventies had documented 400 press connections to the CIA.  When I became a leading member of Madison’s anti-war group, I actively cross listed numerous articles by national and local peace list-serves.  It was quite an education, as my favorite pieces were about the lobby groups driving the whole war process, JINSA, CSP, and especially PNAC, Project for a New American Century.  All the big political names were in these groups.

Nobel Peace Year Highlights 10-1-17 (55 views)

Strange pattern on my website might indicate Nobel is double checking me out right now, Saturday afternoon 9-23-17 about 2pm Oslo time, and Monday evening 9-25-17 between 8pm and midnight, someone(s) read all 24 press releases since last Christmas.  The Norwegian Nobel Committee reportedly chooses in August according to Jim Murphy, announces October 6 Friday.  Since both days are the same 24 in a row, it’s hard to imagine that as anything but a double check by two of the five Norwegian politicians that make the decision. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday 6 October, 11:00 a.m. Norway time (4am Madison time CDT).

Letter to Nobel Committee 10-5-16 (51 views)

The precision findings that demand a “reduction of armies” for national survival are these two:

Benefits of Awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Robert Reuschlein

The million-dollar prize and publicity would make it possible to introduce the world to a new way of thinking about military spending, the economy, and global warming.  With the staff to research new stock market strategies and national strategies to finally, force politicians to recognize the huge drawbacks to keeping military spending excessively high for long periods, especially in peacetime but also in wartime.

CNN Top Stories: All Empire 1-2-16 (51 views)

Rise of Islamic State when world empire America invaded Saddam Hussein’s Iraq there was no Al Qaeda in Iraq, but in the ensuing chaos their quickly arose a chapter of Al Qaeda that sought to promote war between the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam.  Gay Marriage Supreme Court Decision The main theory of empire from right wing sources is that moral decay has led to the current state of America. Tolerating gay marriage is a sign of the moral decay of America.  Paris Terror Assaults Because of colonial involvement of France and Britain in the Middle East, decades of chickens coming home to roost.  Mass Shootings of four or more individuals totaled 355 late in the year. High levels of military spending as an indicator of empire shows that crime is a function of empire.  Cops Killing Unarmed Blacks The nature of our police forces have changed over the decades to include tactics heretofore reserved for our overseas forces.

Game Master Gygax History 5-14-17 (50 views)

Stretching the Imagination  The Role Playing Games Industry (Dungeons and Dragons) emerged from war gaming and the discipline and imagination of Gary Gygax (1938-2008) of Lake Geneva Wisconsin.  In 1966, Gygax founded the International Federation of Wargaming (IFW) 1967-1973 and encouraged fellow legend of wargaming Robert Reuschlein to join that group that became the largest wargaming group of its time. Gary Gygax developed the first successful wargaming convention in 1968, GenCon, starting with 100 wargamers, now featuring 50,000 attendees in Indianapolis each year.  Gary developed “Dungeons and Dragons” in 1974.

War Decision Mechanisms 9-9-16 (50 views)

Major War Cycle, 54 Years Long, Major Wars Happen in Cold Years (on 54 year cycle)

Low Level Military Defense (keeps economy stronger longer)

National Security State Born in a sociology class on power structure.  I compared Secretaries of State and Defense since World War Two in 1985 and the pattern continues today.  State tends to be hawkish and Defense tends to be dovish.  This is the reverse of most public opinion.  CIA Presidents: Obama Clinton Bush Sr. War and Occupy Economics (40% economic reduction under occupation)

The Worthlessness of War (few innovations, huge capital waste)   

The Complete Texts of These 11 Press Releases:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 23), “Summer 2019 Leading Views” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019194815.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 121 Strong Web Looks in 11.7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Reasons for Nobel Prize


Alfred Nobel’s Will states the second reason for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to the persons who have done the most in the last year to “reduce armies”.  Nothing could do more to make the leaders of governments worldwide to want to reduce their armies than the realization that the negative economic impact of military spending is to deplete capital investment and economic growth rates by the same amount as the military spending.  This has the counterproductive impact of weakening the nation in the name of defending the nation.  All militaries acknowledge the vital role economic strength plays in national defense.  Existing economic theories are fooled by the apparent economic support military spending gives to regions of a country.  This support ignores the “opportunity cost” of reducing manufacturing construction mining and agriculture, the goods producing industries, by the research and capital devoted instead to the military.  Unfortunately, military spending is a source of local leader political power wherever it is spent, and the national defense argument is used to overpay those involved in military industries aggravating the lost opportunity costs to the rest of the economy.

The Power of Science

The economists of the world are so convinced that “there will never be a science of economics” that they accept their humble role of fine tuning the business micro economics of supply and demand and turn to the weak blunt instrument of monetary policy or throw their hands in the air about macro economics “whatever that is”.  Keynesian economics works quite well, thank you, once you understand that government deficit spending lifts the economy and military spending depletes the economy dollar for dollar.  Then put the economy on the long term sinusoidal roller coaster of the Kondratiev (1926) 54 year cycle and measure the results every Juglar (1858) cycle of about eight to ten years (sometimes seven to eleven years) and United States manufacturing productivity growth rate becomes an exact science from 1920 to 1983, with precision comparable to early physics experiments of the Isaac Newton age.  Creating an actual science of macro economics was an engineering and accounting challenge met by a one-time leading war gamer and mathematician of Gary Gygax’s “International Federation of Wargaming” (1967-1973).  I gave up my wargaming career of an armchair general in 1974 moving to the West Coast for an MBA and political career in the eighties.  That same year (1974) Gary Gygax, my first mentor, invented “Dungeons and Dragons” selling one thousand copies that first year and millions a year just three or four years later.  His son told me that Gary talked about me all the time.

Science Changes Everything

Economists study the entrails of the economy in detail hoping to elicit clues about where the economy is going. They make argumentative cases for their educated guesses like a lawyer or a politician.  There are no certainties in their world.  Like a carpenter who measures three times and cuts once, scientists and engineers are far more meticulous and precise.  Scientific theories represent paradigm shifts that forever change our perspectives on the world.  Family history shows that students who can’t make it in engineering turn to accounting and those who can’t make it into accounting turn to economics.  As an engineer who made four honor societies in the third best electrical engineering program in the United States, and later became a Certified Public Accountant, I’m not third string like the economists.  Economic forecasting, Stock Market forecasting, Hurricane forecasting, and War forecasting will never be the same once people understand the power of my new models of the world and the science they are based on.

Empire Changes Everything

When these new sciences are applied to history a new appreciation for the impact of military spending on explaining American history and society over the last hundred years helps detail the state of empire America has fallen into.  Crime and health rates rise and fall with the changes in military spending, and states with the highest military spending are where the survivors of presidential primaries came from during the Cold War, when all elected US Presidents came from the high military spending states.  All eleven Cold War elections of US presidents were won by high military spending states candidates, and the seven low military spending states candidates nominated by one of the two major parties all lost.  Likewise, congressional leadership, cabinet secretaries, and Supreme Court appointees have all been about 80% from high military spending states, even though the population is equally divided between high and low military spending states.  I call this the empire bias.  Just as the Cold War arm race made Massachusetts Institute of Technology the leading Pentagon research institution, the post Cold War foreign policy and CIA emphasis made Johns Hopkins the leading Pentagon research institute today.  Likewise, CIA democrats like Clinton and Obama have become acceptable “emperors” or modern presidents outside the high military states club.  The CIA hides its agents well, so these two presidents and the elder George Bush have not come out of the closet as CIA agents in their youth yet.

Stories Change Everything

The story of the Cold War economy comes from my first Ruth Leger Sivard inspired graph.  Imagine the G7 countries in the Cold War as a story of three boats with nine people in each boat.  The American boat has two with oars and seven with swords.  The European boat has five with oars and four with swords.  The Japanese boat has eight with oars and one with a sword.  Who is going to win the race?  The Japanese won the Cold War economic race and the Europeans took time off for vacations and families with their high productivity.  The Americans bought into militarism and elitism and left the middle class behind as the rich quadrupled their income, wealth, and power.  If leaders still believe economics and military power are two independent goals unrelated to each other, the folly of militarism will continue, and peace and prosperity will remain elusive.

The Economic Engineering Model That Changes Everything:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 16), “Reasons for Nobel Prize” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019194670.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 118 Strong Web Looks in 11.5 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Themes of Peace Economics

Rewriting History and Education

When a paradigm shifting new knowledge emerges it requires a lot of rewriting and re-educating to allow people to become familiar with the new world perspective that is needed.  Military Keynesianism is so deeply embedded in our common knowledge that is takes a lot of re-evaluation to correct the endless stream of misunderstandings.  It is fascinating to watch even the left-wing pundits of MSNBC parrot again and again that the one thing Trump has going for him is the good economy.  Other than Steve Rattner on the “Morning Joe” show few even bother to examine in detail how false that commonly accepted narrative is.  And they all fail to note that military spending changes are the main underlying explanation for much of the real true story.

Empire Themes

History tends to be anecdotal and biographical, often centered on the foibles of the individual person or individual situation and geography of the nation, terrain, or continent.  There is strong resistance to theory building that emphasizes consistencies in the origin and nature of war fighting and preparation for wars.  We want to think that human choice is in charge, not larger forces like economics and natural cycle timing.  We like to think we are masters of our own fate, not pawns in a larger framework.  We will cling to anecdotal exceptions to broader theories rather than accept the strong natural tendencies that override our individuality.  The empire concept allows us to examine how top dog elitism can permeate a culture and lead to the many ills that arise as an empire gradually decays under the pressure of relentless militarism and the dead-end military economy.

Climate Themes

It is amazing that something so common as evaporation differences between land and ocean can lead to profound shifts over time in natural events, economic growth rates, and evolutions in social structure that lead to historically changes of many kinds but especially in the timing of wars.  We so readily accept how are lives are changed by day and night, the four seasons, and evens social constructs like the week month calendar and year.  We live on a planet dominated by water and oceans in so many ways, with 71% of the Earth’s surface covered by water and 67% water in our bodies and 91% water in plants.  Thanks to evaporation we can see our breath in winter and use sweat to cool our bodies in summer.  Lacking sweats glands, dogs use their wet tongues to regulate heat.  Humans seek sprinklers and cool bodies of water to cool off.  We locate our cities near water for these and many other purposes including ease of transportation.  Dehydration can kill us.  Lack of water gives us the high heat of our deserts.

Military Themes

The military is one of our most admired among occupations and institutions.  We cling strongly to this despite the chaos and arbitrary carnage and barbarity of war and war fighting.  Steady bravery in the face of death and destruction is greatly admired and rewarded with elaborate ceremonies and remembrances.  Peace Economics looks at the transference of these behaviors and corruptions to domestic politics, criminal conduct, and social disorders of many kinds that ensue from militarism and the demonizing of others leading to racial sexual religious and ethnic problems and discriminations.

Research Themes

This whole section is from the J.W. Forrester wiki:

Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems is a 1971 paper by Jay Wright Forrester. In it, Forrester argues that the use of computerized system models to inform social policy is far superior to simple debate, both in generating insight into the root causes of problems and in understanding the likely effects of proposed solutions.

Forrester characterizes normal debate and discussion as being dominated by inexact mental models:

The mental model is fuzzy. It is incomplete. It is imprecisely stated. Furthermore, within one individual, a mental model changes with time and even during the flow of a single conversation. The human mind assembles a few relationships to fit the context of a discussion. As the subject shifts so does the model. When only a single topic is being discussed, each participant in a conversation employs a different mental model to interpret the subject. Fundamental assumptions differ but are never brought into the open. Goals are different and are left unstated. It is little wonder that compromise takes so long. And it is not surprising that consensus leads to laws and programs that fail in their objectives or produce new difficulties greater than those that have been relieved.

Empire and Climate Economics In 2017 Presentations:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 2), “Themes of Peace Economics” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019194356.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 106 Strong Web Looks in 11 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Fascism Climate Emergency

Crisis of the Times

Strongmen are rising all over the world, as democracy retreats, just as the climate crisis emerges with ferocity.

First California had record fires, then the Canadian prairies caught fire giving a hazy sky over the Midwest where I live, then Siberia, then the Amazon fires started.  Those last fires were manmade, as a climate denier like America’s Trump took power in Brazil.  That event encouraged the farmers to reclaim farmland from the forest.  Just like that fascism creates a climate emergency.  This means more than ever mankind needs to recognize my work creating accurate models of economics and the 54-year climate cycle that are each an order of magnitude better than the existing state of each art.  In fact, economists do not even believe a science of economics is even possible.  But a systems thinking engineer can do what the economists could not do.  With Greenland melting ten years ahead of schedule, clearly the climate crisis today is what fascism in Europe and Japan was 80 years ago, something that requires all of civilization to give it their best effort.  And each danger is better met with the strength that comes from low military spending strong economies unhindered by the restrictions of fascism, crime, social inequality, poor health, and corruption that spring from excessive militarism.

United States Turning Point

The United States of America faces an existential crisis point in the summer of the 50th anniversary of the moon-landing and the seventy-fifth anniversary of the D-Day invasion to recapture France from the Nazis.  A similar national effort is now needed to face the crisis of our times brought about by the Greenhouse effect.  Corrupt political forces like those of the Weimar Republic in Germany in the twenties have seized control of the Senate and Presidency of the largest economy in North America.

What America Needs

America needs a Truth and Reconciliation Commission for its age of empire like the one used in South Africa for the necessary healing to take place after Apartheid.  The excesses of militarism should not be papered over, whitewashed, and swept under the carpet, rather they should be faced up to squarely.  The world recognizes this much better than anyone in the United States can even dream about.  There are many voices that are ignored by the establishment and only tinkered with, poked and prodded, by the mainstream press.  The Church Commission of the seventies was a good place to start, too soon forgotten.

Showings Needed

Pulling back from the military brink comes easy to those who realize excessive militarism can poison the socioeconomic system and the future belongs to the low military spending nations.  Knowing the most likely times for major wars to occur and why they do so can help keep a nation from premature militarism or excessive defense measures during times of expected peace.  Showing that high military spending can lead to militaristic politics, high crime, and poor national health is an important part of the whole picture.  We can all spiral up together or we can spiral down together.

First Great Climate Cycle Presentation Inspired by Hurricane Sandy In 2012:

Accurate Economics Model That Replaces Outdated Military Keynesianism In 2014:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 27), “Fascism Climate Emergency” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019194224.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 101 Strong Web Looks in 11 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Gygax D&D Game Inventor

Beginnings of “Dungeons and Dragons”

Mom had four of us 1947 to 1953 and I was the second of three boys before the first girl.  We grew up playing games together, especially Monopoly, Careers, and Risk.  Then in 1961 I bought the first of many Avalon Hill boardgames from Baltimore, MD.  Gary Gygax bought his first Avalon Hill game in 1958.  I played my earliest games all against my older brother and never lost a game to him.  Avalon Hill decided to publish a newsletter, “The Avalon Hill General” and in 1964 I hoped that Christmas to get a subscription to the General and I did.  I learned about Gary Gygax from the many articles he wrote for the Avalon Hill General and he learned about me from the occasional article I wrote, the contests I won, and the opponents wanted ads we both used to find others in our respective local communities who shared our keen interest in these fascinating complex historical battle games.  Soon Gary challenged me to a play by mail game of “Battle of the Bulge” in 1966.  This was the favorite game of mine and Walter Cronkite, anchor of CBS news from 1962-1981.  I crushed Gary’s Germans in one of my patented American counterattacks late in the game, and he resigned.  I was 16 at the time and Gary was 28.  This turned out to be the only game directly between us in our ten years of friendship from 1964 to 1974.  I mostly played about three games a week those years with my high school and college friends in Madison Wisconsin while he mostly played with his Lake Geneva Tactical Studies Group in Lake Geneva Wisconsin.  When Gary started the International Federation of Wargaming in 1967, he urged me to join and I did.  I became a Senator in the IFW in 1968 and Coordinator of Wargaming in 1969.  My 19-1 won loss record was the best in the IFW with the highest rating by a factor of two above the starting point.  Gygax started the Geneva Convention in August 1968 and I followed with the Madison Wargaming Convention in June 1969, which Gary graciously attended.  I attended the first seven Geneva Conventions as attendance grew from 100 to 300.  I won the first tournament of Avalon Hill games in 1973 and tied in 1974 due to lack of time for the final game.  Now attendance runs about 50,000 a year in Indianapolis.  My last year, 1974, was the first year of D&D “Dungeons and Dragons”.

Game Invention by Gary Gygax

Gary invented and marketed several games before his invention of “Dungeons and Dragons”.  He was an active board gamer but also experimented with miniatures, often metal figurines or plastic armored vehicles that were maneuvered on battlefields in a sandbox, with varied terrain like forests and rivers and roads.  “Chainmail is considered an early role-playing game in a medieval setting.  Towards the end of my seven years at GenCon, Gary started experimenting with sandbox castles and wizards and figurines of a fantasy nature to the amusement of the rest of the crowd of standard wargamers and miniatures players.  Most wargames were ground troops battles, often World War II or Civil War or Napoleonics.  Board games were high level strategic maneuvering of counters representing divisions, corps, regiments, and brigades.  Miniatures were smaller scale fighting units with individual figurines and vehicles.  Sometimes a ship battle would take up the whole floor of a room.  Role playing as an individual or in teams of individual characters with fantasy elements like magic and various weaponry and monsters to confront was the innovation that took off and became D&D, boosting interest into the masses, going from thousands of wargamers to millions of D&D fans.

First D&D Prototypes

I was invited out on Gary’s porch once to try a prototype of the early D&D on a sheet of paper where I was given choices of moves until I came upon a chest and opened it.  Later the first D&D game was held (at the last 1974 GenCon I attended) in the back of the horticultural hall about two blocks from the 330 Center Street home of Gary Gygax and his family.  That game ended in 45 minutes with all six participants dead.  Gary graciously sold my old games at those last two conventions in 1973 and 1974 and gave me the proceeds.  When I moved to the State of Oregon in June 1974, I left wargaming behind me except for visits every year or two back home to Madison Wisconsin where I found my wargaming buddies had moved on to railroad games, while I quickly learned to beat them at that.

Video Game Industry

Today’s $135 billion industry owes a huge debt to Gary Gygax for the two innovations of role-playing games and levels of development.  Virtually all modern games have these two basic features.  This revenue now surpasses the projected total global box office for the film industry by a wide margin.


Thanks to Camel cigarettes, a habit he tried to hide from everyone around him including his wife, Gary Gygax died way too early at age 69 in 2008.  I witnessed one scene in his living room with his wife, with Gary trying to downplay the habit by saying he only smoked a few Cheroots occasionally, a thin small rolled cigar.  I remember one scene in his kitchen, during the years between his insurance job he commuted to in Chicago and his success with millions of games sold each year in the late seventies.  He was working as a shoe repairman.  He asked his wife if she was buying groceries on sale at only the lowest prices, and whether she was buying in bulk when she found a great price, and she assured him she was doing all that.  This was about 1971 when his second boy Luke was about one year old.  I owe Gary Gygax a lot for being a great mentor to me in my high school and college years.  Wargaming and article writing helped earn me the High School honor of the Math and Science Award and helped bring a reclusive young boy out of his shell to become a leader and eventually even get into politics.  This lead directly into my multi-disciplinary and academic career that produced the economic and global warming cycle models that have propelled me to the verge of the Nobel Peace Prize after six years of press releases and four years of nominations.

PowerPoint History of Gary Gygax and War Economy 8 pages:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 21), “Gygax D&D Game Inventor” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019194076.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 94 Strong Web Looks in 10+ months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Important to Climate Change


I go to events where people explain their individual global warming projections as they see the greenhouse effect theory affects the global temperature over time.  They always project based on the average rate of increase straight line.  This always gives an inaccurate fit in the current period, usually indicating a curve rising much faster than it is rising during the current period.  I then go to them after the lecture and explain to them that we are in a special short-term situation where the growth of temperature is less than the projected average growth.  I explain the cycle and give them a graph showing how accurate the cycle is.  Then they ignore me.  Sometimes I see them go to my websites and read up on my work, but they still revert to form and ignore me after giving it a lot of thought.  They stay trapped in their pre-existing frame of mind.  This is unfortunate.  Ignoring my work only leads to inaccuracies and continued naïve planning for the unique situations faced by each nation, each region, each city.  Including the 54-year cycle and recognizing the application of the cycle makes possible much more accurate long-term forecasts of the many major natural, economic, and political events of our times.  This will save money and lives.  Some say that history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.  That is a half-truth, because many situations do approximately repeat again on cycle time.  Imagine what a confused world we would live in if we could not count on the sunrise and the sunset or the coming and going of the seasons.  Someday the whole world will look at the events of the 54-year cycle as matter of fact as day and night and winter and summer.  That day will come much sooner if I win a major prize like the Nobel, Pulitzer, or MacArthur, or one of my books became a bestseller.

Natural Events

Evaporation of water happens to be the number use of solar radiation hitting the Earth.  Evaporation happens more over oceans than over land because of the lower amount of water over land.  This leaves more radiation for warming the surface over land than over water.  An estimated three times as much warming occurs initially over land compared to water.  But as land warms faster, eventually the ocean reacts to bring the whole Earth back into energy balance.  Because of varying geography over the planet, these balancing forces like rain, wind belts, ocean currents and mountains create unique circumstances in various parts of the Earth over the course of a 54-year cycle.  This makes major events like hurricanes, earthquakes, blizzards, floods, droughts, and volcanoes ebb and flow and peak at certain times in the cycle in certain places.  These events can be charted and proximately estimated to recur at certain times.  These patterns have enormous consequences for human planning and accommodating to minimize the damage and lives lost when such events occur.

Economic Events

Because high heat has a sluggish impact on the work of the human animal, hot and cold weather, tropical and temperate zones, dry hot deserts and cool humid forests, all have an impact on human output economically.  At the macro level these effects average out to show slow steady evolution of the economic growth rate over the course of the 54-year cycle.  Depressions and booms are accentuated by either long term cooling or heating trends with slight cooling helping economic growth and slight heating slowing economic growth.  Stocks and employment vary with these undercurrents.  Understanding things like how the May day to Halloween slowdown in stock markets occur worldwide can begin to better predict markets leading to greater stability.  Many fortunes will be made or lost applying these effects to economic models.

War and Social Change Events

Human exuberance and lethargy, confidence and anxiety changes as economic booms lead to new countries emerging as world leaders and competition among nations leads to war and social change tensions.  These forces ebb and flow with the changes in the 54-year cycle.  Revolutions don’t happen when despair is widespread, they occur when things begin to change for the better.  Peck order imperatives exist throughout the animal kingdom and also among human societies and nations.  Change requires struggle, whether that be by social movement, economic trade, or by war.  Knowing when these impacts are most likely can greatly reduce the need for excessive and premature war preparations due to uncertainty and fear, leading to the “reduction of armies” mentioned in Alfred Nobel’s will as a justification for the Nobel Peace Prize.  Better understanding of natural economic and social effects can greatly reduce the need for large armies.


The Reuschlein economic model, defense strategy models, and evaporation cycle explanations can all lead to reduced world tensions and the reduction of armies.  The urgent need for taming global warming requires both action and understanding, and many huge mistakes will be made without modeling for the land ocean interaction caused by evaporation differences that play out over the course of 54-years and the many different geographies of planet Earth and the planet’s peoples.

Basic information about the Climate/Economy/War Cycle:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, August 14), “Important to Climate Change” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019193912.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 93 Strong Web Looks in 10+ months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



Popular Old Press Releases


Press Releases are initially sent out to a list of 7000 and my average viewership is 900 per press release, usually front loaded in the first days, then weeks, then months of release.  Total viewership will exceed 200,000 in about a month.  I monitor the progress of views of my press releases several times a day since 2013.  I am only able to see totals for the most recent 50 press releases at a time.  So periodically, usually about once a year, I ask for the whole total list of 220 press releases, and then update my files for increased viewings of the older than current 50 press releases.  This shows me how amazingly popular some older press releases have become.  This is a report on how the 26,834 new views from October 4, 2017 to July 9, 2019 have shown which releases have become very popular in the after 50 category over the last 21 months.  This tends to show what those seriously interested in my work are reading or referring to others to read.

Popular Older Releases

The top 20 popular older releases are an amazing and revealing assortment.  While they range from #9 to #91 on the overall total list, so they are all in the top one hundred, and average rank 52 with average view totals of 1132 each and a range of 891 to 1738.  The 375 views average of this update represents 33% of the average total views!  By comparison, the top twenty press releases on the overall list average 2070 and includes only three of these top twenty hot oldies.  So initial and enduring impressions vary a lot.  And the overall list average has only 13% of these last 21-month updates.

Rank Order Older Releases by Update Views

      Rank Views 2017-2019 Total Views All Rank
1 646 1/23/2016 CIAPresidents 2:33am 1738 37% 9
2 514 5/28/2016 FootballBaseballWar 10 1322 39% 23
3 513 3/19/2016 NobelPrizeWatch 12am 1150 45% 40
4 497 8/26/2014 Prediction 2:10am 1564 32% 12
5 383 3/12/2016 TechnicalPeaceEcon 12 939 41% 71
6 382 11/29/2015 ViolenceCycle 12:05am 919 42% 81
7 376 2/28/2015 WalkerWorkDignity 3am 1098 34% 47
8 375 1/2/2016 CNNTop5AllEmpire 4:40 879 43% 91
9 354 4/2/2016 ScientificRevolution 12 931 38% 75
10 340 6/4/2016 DeepPoliticsIraq 4:21am 1214 28% 31
11 328 4/16/2016 CIALiveHistory 12:53am 944 35% 70
12 323 12/21/2014 10ScientificRevolution 1010 32% 62
13 317 4/23/2016 FuturePresident 11:20 911 35% 84
14 314 4/30/2016 ParadigmShiftsPE 4:45 957 33% 67
15 311 10/18/2016 ClassWarfare 5:06am 1495 21% 16
16 311 4/28/2015 NepalChile 12:00am 906 34% 86
17 310 5/14/2014 EugenePolitician 2pm 1099 28% 46
18 303 1/3/2015 ReligionEmpire 12:30 1098 28% 48
19 300 9/8/2014 10HeatHurts 11:40am 952 32% 69
20 298 10/5/2016 NobelPrizeLetter 2:10 1527 20% 15

Leading Older Releases:

“CIA Presidents: Obama Clinton” 1-23-16 leads the way with the revelations that both Democratic Party US Presidents since the end of the Cold War worked with the CIA.  These two, Clinton and Obama, also are the first elected Presidents since World War II that do not come from above average military spending per capita home states.  Their compromise with empire is not the military economy but the intelligence agencies.  This is a shift parallel with the Defense Research Institutions list from Massachusetts Institute of Technology topping the list in the Cold War and Johns Hopkins University of Baltimore topping the list with the US the sole superpower after the Cold War.  The move is from weapons engineering primacy to foreign policy primacy respectively.  George Bush, sr. as former head of the CIA (1975-1976) was also a CIA President and probably worked for the CIA in the early sixties, and there may have been others, as the CIA is very secretive.

“Football, Baseball, and War” 5-28-16

This second ranked release shows the importance of cultural dominance of an appropriate sport for an empire to have.  As USA moved from a peacetime economy between wars to the perpetual militarism of empire, so too it moved from artistic Baseball as the number one sport to American Football with all its militaristic language and brute force techniques that strongly resemble those of modern warfare.

“Nobel Peace Prize Watch” 3-19-16

This third ranked release tells the exciting story of reading into the secretive deliberations of the Norwegian Nobel Committee just by following closely the activity on my various websites.  This explains how and why I came to believe Thorbjorn Jagland took the early assignment to follow my Nobel Peace Prize nomination in early 2016.

“SF Earthquake Predicted” 8-26-14

This fourth ranked release follows the history of prediction of events with my global warming cycle theory.  Includes the June 16, 1991 Mount Pinatuba eruption that confirmed my volcanic cycle theory just after the release of my “Natural Global Warming” paper on May 7, 1991.  Goes on to anticipate the San Francisco earthquake repetition of 1906 two cycles later in 2014, precisely 108 years later, but at a low magnitude the second time.

“Technical Peace Economics” 3-12-16

This fifth ranked release is an early summary of my key findings picked up and published by the “Nonviolent Change Journal Spring 2016 Edition, May 5, 2016.”  Includes my thirteen defining correlations and the 56 cycle events and world temperature graph with perfect fitting 55 year moving average found in the complete paper.

“War and Violence Period Cycle” 11-29-15

This sixth ranked release focuses on the economic and political cycles that produce the war cycle, the civil rights cycle, and other patterns.

“Scott Walker of Wisconsin” 2-28-15

This seventh ranked release focuses on the union busting bill of the Tea Party darling Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin who sprung a surprise ALEC extreme bill on the state right after the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2011, leading to protests of at least 10,000 daily for four weeks, including the final protest of 150,000. 

“CNN Stories:  All Empire” 1-2-16

This eighth ranked release focuses on the top five CNN stories of 2015; Rise of the Islamic State, Supreme Court Gay Marriage Decision (reflects right wing moral decay theory of empire), Paris Terror Assaults, Mass Shootings, Cops Killing Unarmed Blacks.

“Scientific Revolution Type” 4-2-16

This ninth ranked release focuses on my ten-point summary of Thomas Kuhn’s classic “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” and my own thoughts on “Ten Truths About Research.”

“Deep Politics of Iraq War” 6-4-16

This tenth ranked release focuses the story of how the CIA brought Saddam Hussein to power, used him against Iran, and then tricked him into invading Kuwait.  The rest of the story is more familiar.

Additional information about Stages of Empire:

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 24), “Popular Old Press Releases” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:,2019183228.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 81 Web Looks in 10 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.



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