bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Archive for the tag “Engineering”

Born in the United States

Listening to various music on the plane back to America from Norway, Bruce Springsteen’s album “Born in the USA” inspired this Peace Economics approach to these song titles.

Working on the Highway

This song reminds me of the story of American on the rise.  United by the Civil War and ever expanding Westward, America started the twentieth century a rising industrial power with the largest economy in the world.  Frederick Taylor, inventing industrial engineering in the age of railroads in the 1890s, found out that productivity for laying railroads peaked at 64 degrees Fahrenheit.  As temperatures increase above that level proportionately less work gets done.  This shows how capital accumulation and the economy improves slightly with slightly lower temperatures or slows down slightly with slightly higher temperatures, as most capital, economic progress, and infrastructure starts with construction.  A century of data confirms these patterns.

 

Glory Days

This song about those that peaked in high school reminds me about America’s fixation with World War II (WWII) and the so-called Greatest Generation.  Yes, the Marshall Plan was infinitely better than the 1919 Versailles treaty which gave us WWII.  But even the Marshall Plan only supplied 10% of the internally generated capital in Japan and Germany in the 1950s.  Important startup capital, but low military spending was the real secret ingredient that gave both Japan and Germany average economic growth rates over 8% for the decade of the fifties.  They both thank America for democracy, especially the more modern parliamentary type, including Japan’s antiwar constitution and Germany’s equal representation with owners for workers on corporate boards.  Thanks America.  The military burdens of empire have held America back ever since WWII, hence the fixation with those glory days of the so-called good war.  Most wars ever since have ended badly.

Born in the USA

America’s 329 million includes 47 million immigrants, largely thanks to the 1965 Immigration Act. That’s 14.4% of the US population.  In the age of empire after 1945, immigrants have bolstered the economy with one Newsweek article suggesting that immigrants make about 2.5 times as much as other Americans.  This “all roads lead to Rome” keeps the American economy a world leader, despite the economic erosion of the highest military budget in the world.  Many physicians, dentists, lawyers, engineers, scientists, accountants, and rich businesspeople are among those immigrants often educated in the US and seeking to stay.  Meanwhile ever since the number one nuclear weapons contractor spokesperson Ronald Reagan tricked people into cutting the top tax rate 60% while only helping the middle class 15% in the name of a 25% tax cut, income inequality has quadrupled top 1% incomes while the 99% have had their incomes frozen for forty years.  Yes, that stagnancy even includes the rest of the top 5%.  And the real winners are the top 0.1%.  Only about 25% of immigrants are the poor South of the border type, and about 80% are legal.

I’m Going Down

Peace Economics shows strong international comparison correlations with high crime, corruption, and low health for the higher militarized economies.  This is the essence of the social decline of empire that accompanies the slow steady economic decline.  Even today political crisis pervades the three most militarized countries in NATO, America, Britain, and France.  Trump has disrupted America, Brexit befuddles Britain, and Macron’s elite policies with a blind spot to income inequality in France have created turmoil in all three countries.  All three have faced unwanted Russian interventions.  Meanwhile the most successful economy in Europe, Germany, has had up until now the lowest percentage of military spending at a mere 1%.  That 1% military has been the secret of success for pre-WWII America and post-WWII Japan.  The last three decades Japan has grown little while Japanese capital has brought up the whole Far East neighborhood, starting with the Four Tigers of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea and proceeding after that with China.  The Fujian province next to Hong Kong is where the high growth started in China in the 1980s.  Hong Kong was taking over China economically before China took over Hong Kong politically in 1999.  And low military Italy overtook Britain in 1987 in per capita income, the same year Japan passed America in per capita economy.  Then Britain found North Sea Oil, and Japan peaked in 1994 at 40% higher per capita income over America and has slumped to 25% higher in 2000 and continues to slump.

No Surrender

Americans famously used the Alamo “no surrender” policy to fend-off the Mexican army long enough to rally enough troops to defend Texas in 1845.  Much later, America adopted the unconditional surrender demand for fighting the tyrants of World War II.  Then the Republican Party took the idea too far, applying it in domestic politics, led by Newt Gingrich in 1994 as the first Republican Speaker of the House in forty years.  Extremism and the politics of personal destruction took hold after 46 years of the Cold War, ironically just after the Cold War ended.  But the excessive militarism of the long high military spending in peacetime years of the Cold War (1945-1991) had kind of baked into the cake the habits of empire.  So entwined was the nation in militarism that George H. W. Bush had to tempt a cash starved Iraq (drained by the Iran war) into trying to reclaim oil rich Kuwait as the 18th province separated from the rest of Iraq by the British in 1921.  He told his ambassador to Iraq to say the US didn’t care about border disputes after encouraging the Kuwaitis to slant drill underground for oil under the ground in Iraq.  Then he acted with outrage and rallied the UN to “free” Kuwait.  This saved the military from appearing irrelevant after the end of the Cold War, holding the Cold War defense budget cuts to 25% while Europe cut their forces 50%.  Empire was saved enough to be restored in the second Bush presidency after eight years of peace and prosperity.  Meanwhile, the second Democratic presidency after the Cold War was met with total noncooperation from the Republican Party and the Republican Party brought their Southern style politics North in 2010 to rebuke the first Black president.  Extremism was normalized, making Trump possible, in a new post-truth society of unlimited propaganda.  America had the equivalent of Caligula, the crazy emperor of Rome who lasted four years.

One Page Principles Summary of Peace Economics: https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p. 13

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, December 14), “Born in the United States”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Born-in-the-United-States,2018165532.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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Rights and Climate Cycles

Examples will be cited and interrelated throughout this article, especially the events of the last two years in America, with important implications for the election next week.

Atmosphere is a term that can be used at least two ways.  It can be a social term or a natural events term.  Perhaps these two uses can be related.  Rights, especially human rights, can have many interpretations, in this article especially racial rights and women’s rights.  Social atmosphere evolves throughout the long term 54-year economic cycle, manifesting in a political events cycle as economic improvements lead to opportunities for changes in human rights.  Turning points occur every 27 years in the 54-year cycle, in all three aspects of the cycle, the natural events cycle, the economic cycle, and the political social cycle.

Year of the Woman, 2018 and 1992

Punctuated by the rejection of the first woman presidency and the election of a man committed to white male supremacy and male sexual privilege, the largest demonstration in American history occurred when women rallied the next day to protest the presidential inauguration, January 21, 2017.  That has led to this year of the Resistance with the possible election of over 100 women to the new congress which currently has 84 women in the House of Representatives.  The last year of the woman was 1992 after a controversial Supreme Court nomination in 1991.  The recent Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings of 2018 are an exact half cycle of 27 years after those 1991 Anita Hill sexually harassment charges against subsequently confirmed Justice Clarence Thomas, the Justice that never asks questions.  Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed on a straight party line vote with one exception each way, 51-49, despite credible allegations of attempted rape when he was age 17, 36 years ago in 1982.  Professor Catherine Blasey Ford has been traumatized for life by that event when she attended a party at age 15, as confirmed by lie detector test now and marriage counseling twelve years ago, and the double front door remodel years before that.  Other women have confirmed the high school and college year mean drunk sexually abusive days of the still beer loving Justice.  Typical frat boy story of male privilege.  In the words of the Justice, “What goes on at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep.”  Boys will be boys in the eyes of conservative rural women voters, but the normally conservative college educated wives in the suburbs have had enough (Me Too movement) and are voting for a new majority in congress with a 30% gender gap in voter preference overall.

Black Lives Matter

Colin Kaepernick, National Football League former Super Bowl starting quarterback who lost that game by only 3 points, 31-34, became a champion for Nike this year.  He was villainized by the extreme right wing and their President for his kneeling at the national anthem before a game to protest senseless police killings of black people.  Football refuses to rehire him (blackballing) since then at age 26.  The history starts with the Los Angeles Watts riot of 1965, then the Los Angeles Rodney King riots perfect half cycle 27 years later in 1992, leading to the Baltimore riots of 2015, the Kaepernick kneeling in 2016, and today’s rehiring of him as spokesperson for Nike this year in 2018, 26 years after the Rodney King riots.  Next week should elect a black man governor of Florida and maybe a black woman governor of Georgia.  This would come a perfect 54 years after the Nobel Peace Prize award to Martin Luther King, jr. in 1964.  The then record-breaking protest crowd of 230,000 in August 1963 featured King’s famous “I Have a Dream” speech, a cycle perfect 54 years later in 2017 the women’s march set a new protest record nationwide of 4 million.

Civil Rights Cycle

My jaw nearly dropped when the daughter of Brown in the landmark Brown vs Board of Education Supreme Court decision of 1954 recited prior landmark events that fit the 54-year cycle.  Here is my report on 3-29-14: “The daughter of the man named Brown in the famous Brown vs. Board of Education Supreme Court case (decided in 1954 when she was 4 years old) came to Madison, Wisconsin this week.  She spoke in Anderson Auditorium at the same Edgewood where I earned my High School Diploma and much later my Doctorate in Educational Leadership.  On her power point were two other epic events of the long civil rights struggle.  The first desegregation case was in 1849 vs. City of Boston.  Then came the famous “Separate but Equal” decision of Plessey vs. Ferguson in 1896.  Putting these all together with the election of the first Black President in 2008, you have four Kondratiev Wave points in a row.  The perfect 54-year cycle points would be 1846, 1900, 1954, and 2008.  The first two are three years late and four years early.  The last two are perfect fits, 1954 and 2008.”

Hurricane Cycles

The epic hurricanes of the last two years in America set various records and repeated various similar major hurricanes of cycle years past, mainly 54-year repeats or 27-year repeats, always using consistent regional comparisons.  The regional impact is important, otherwise there would be too many hurricanes to compare based only on dates. The major hurricane population event was CAT 4 Harvey hitting Houston in 2017 just 56 years after CAT 5 Carla hit Texas in 1961.  Harvey was much worse rain-wise with 30-inch-deep floods in the greater Houston area for days.  Then CAT 5 Irma 2017 hit the Keys and flooded downtown Miami with 8 feet of water, 25 years after CAT 5 Andrew hit Miami hard and 52 years after the 1965 Miami hurricane.  CAT 5 Maria devastates Puerto Rico and populated by brown people with no presidential vote, gets the least US relief aid, showing the President’s mainland Texas, Florida, and white bias. This is preceded by CAT 4 Hugo which clips Puerto Rico CAT 3 on the way to devastating North Carolina in 1989.  28 years (1 off 27-year half cycle) later Maria hits in 2017. 29 years (2 off 27-year half cycle) later CAT 4 Florence hits North Carolina with worse flooding than Hugo rain-wise.

This year 2018 CAT 4 Hurricane Lane hits Hawaii 26 years (1 off 27-year half cycle) after CAT 4 Iniki hits in 1992.  2018 CAT 5 Michael hits Florida panhandle very hard with tornado like winds: Alma CAT3 in 1966 weakens to CAT1, hits 52 years (2 short of 54) before, same place South of Tallahassee.  The difference was warmer global warming waters accelerate Michael this year while approaching coast weakened Alma in 1966, as both crossed the Caribbean.

Phony Trump Claims on Economy

Jobs growth for 2017 was at the lowest growth in six years, 20% below Obama average last five years after he withdrew from Iraq in 2011 and cut military spending 2012-2015.  Job growth so far for 2018 pro rata is 2.468 million slightly below the 2.5 million jobs per year for the last five Obama years. This suggests the tax cut has offset the military increase for no net effect.  Unemployment rates went up in 2009 and 2010 by 3.8% over 2008 because of the Great Recession.  After that Obama averaged an unemployment rate drop of 0.83% per year from 2011 to 2015.  Then the Obama drop in 2016 was only 0.42% due to the military buildup begun that year and continued and increased by Trump.  Trump has continued that low level of unemployment drop with 2017 drop 0.52% and 2018 drop pro rata of 0.56% so far.  The stock market gain was a natural rebound from the uncertainty of the election result holding back stocks in 2016.  With the uncertainty removed, the stock made up for lost growth right after the election.  Now stocks, which earlier benefited from the 70% stock buyback use of the tax cut (which only benefited stockowners and not the real economy) are suffering from the tariffs in agriculture and car manufacturing and the very small federal reserve interest rate increase,

Two Charted Pages Cataloging 56 Key Cycle History Repeat Events:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yrCycle_3p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 30), “Rights and Climate Cycles”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Rights-and-Climate-Cycles,2018163762.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Following Nobel Norwegians

Beginning 2016

When I first wrote Peace Economics in 1986, I had hoped to be recognized with the Nobel Peace Prize, but a friend of mine thought I should be nominated for the Pulitzer.  Neither happened for a very long time as I tried various ways to get the word out.  Recognition was sporadic for many years, then I finally earned a doctorate in 2009 and things started happening.  In 2013 I began a press release campaign using the ExpertClick.com vehicle to reach 7000 members of the press.  In five years, I’ve had 160,000 views of my 200 press releases.  After two years of work on this project, I asked for my followers to nominate me for the Nobel Peace Prize in January 2016 a couple of weeks before the February 1 deadline.  An old friend came through for me and I sought a second nomination to separate me from the pack of over 300 nominees.  That seemed to work when suddenly something unusual happened on my website.  The website shows view totals for each release whenever I check it.  I check it several times a day and divide the day in thirds for my records.  Suddenly the totals of all 50 of my most current releases showed an increase of one about 9am February ,2, 2016 Norway time.  Apparently, I was being checked out by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.  Excited, I sent them a copy of my 40-minute video with a 24-page booklet enclosed of the latest compact version of my work Peace Economics.  This led to 22 views from France that had also never happened before on the WordPress.com website.  I did not expect France instead of Norway, but it turns out one of the committee was working in Strasbourg, France as Secretary General of the Council of Europe.  He also was educated in economics, the natural one to vet the Peace Economist.  And my email preceding the video shipment had mentioned “proof of peace economics” which was one visit to the home page of my WordPress.com site in March 2016 and 21 months back to July 2014 to that press release.

Silence Before the 2017 Award

Nothing much happened after the February March 2016 initial burst of interest until the twelve days before the 2017 announcement.  Then a new pattern of looking at the most recent 24 releases emerged three times, on Saturday afternoon Europe time 12 days before, Monday evening Europe time 10 days before, and the Thursday night before the 2017 announcement.  This looked like two people on the five-member committee double-checking first then searching for a third vote the night before.  Although the 2017 award to ICAN made some sense because of the prominence of the nuclear weapons issue thanks to North Korea and Trump, it was largely ignored by the world press.  Hence some misgivings about that award would justify looking for another recipient.

Emerging Favorite with 2018 Award

This third year has been amazing as the new pattern of reading the latest 24 press releases has repeated itself about 48 times compared to twice the first year and three the second year.  Despite not getting the award this year, clearly, I’ve reached the short list of favorite nominees.  In the year of the ME-TOO movement of women, it was logical to give the award to activists against the use of rape as a weapon of war. Perhaps my time will come in a year of world recession or war.  Cyber war, the war on democracy, the war on crime, the war on injustice and inequality, the war on climate change, the war on immigrants and refugees, the war on poverty, are all topics worthy of consideration for an award.  I have shown how many of those are related to high levels of military spending.  My two new scientific theories of economics and climate change all feed into the second clause in Nobel’s will about “reduction of armies” as a goal for the Peace Prize.  Reducing armies’ fights poverty and strengthens the national economy while reducing tensions and making a nation more immune to attack.  Clearer understanding of climate change mechanisms leads to a better understanding of both natural threat cycles and war cycles.  Knowing when hurricanes tend to repeat in a geographic area leads to better preparation.  Knowing when major wars tend to occur between major economic powers leads to better management of defense resources.  Less uncertainty leads to lower levels of armaments.  Of the 48 “hard looks” at my work this last year, the patterns are revealing.  Interest starts slow and accelerates over the course of the year.  In the fourth quarter of 2017 only two.  In the first quarter of 2018 ten hard looks.  In the second quarter of 2018 sixteen hard looks.  In the crucial third quarter of 2018 twenty hard looks before the announcement.  Interest in my candidacy by the committee has never been higher than right now.

Others Showing Interest Online

In the very first year of these press releases, October 2013, multiple site viewers made five views on academia.edu October 20-22 indicating interest by the Pentagon (Alexandria, Virginia) in my climate cycle theory.  This makes sense because the Pentagon is worried about global warming leading to many new conflicts around the world.  Then October 28-30 the CIA showed interest in my military economic theories with eight views from various sites but mostly Fairfax, Virginia.

Then Google started showing lots of interest with 76 views over five years 2013-2018, seventy from Mountain View, California.  Those Google views were mostly in 2015 and 2016 with 65 in those years.

Future Possibilities

Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize 179 years after the scientific discovery of the greenhouse effect.  Copernicus so feared retribution by the church that his work was not published until his daughter found it upstairs in the attic after his death.  Gandhi never won a Nobel Peace Prize because he died before it could be awarded.  Yoko Ono said on the 30th anniversary of John Lennon’s death that 1 million homicides had occurred in America since that day.  My finding that homicide rates are proportional to a nation’s military spending percentage of the economy suggests that cutting military spending in half could cut homicides in half, saving 500,000 lives over that thirty-year period.  That fact alone looks to me comparable to creating peace in a war that cost 500,000 lives over thirty years in Columbia. Using economic incentives to reduce military spending worldwide should reduce both the tendency to have war and the human cost of wars.  How valuable is that?  Understanding that the solar energy imbalances caused by different evaporation rates over oceans and lands affects natural disasters, economics, and wars with untold costs to humankind.  Better understanding of this cycle could save many thousands of lives every year.  How valuable is that?  How much more important is it to change these patterns now than to wait another year or two for a timely event to justify such an award?

Ten Pages Showing 56 Power Point Frames of Key Lectures:

https://www.academia.edu/36620474/Good_Concepts_May_2018_Update_Ten_Pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 8), “Following Nobel Norwegians”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Following-Nobel-Norwegians,2018162846.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017, Strongly Considered 2018 Nobel Peace Prize, Possible Favorite in 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 4th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Valuable Peace Economics

What I call Peace Economics is an evolution of ideas that spring from reassessing the false theory that military spending stimulates the economy.  What is revolutionary about this idea is the mathematical certainty of the models that verify it and the long shadow of internal political, social, defense, and historical consequences that spring directly from the military economy.

Military Spending Hurts the National Economy (#1 Idea)

This first finding surprised me so much because I had assumed that military Keynesianism showed that military spending helped the economic growth rate.  But Ruth Sivard’s work so contradicted that knowledge I had been taught at college that I instantly shared her bar charts all over the State of Oregon Legislature.  Finding that others did not share my clear vision and enthusiasm led to the exhaustive tests and proofs that she was right that I eventually named Peace Economics.  The peace movement was seemingly just as deluded as the economists, politicians, and journalists.  The peace movement was principally concerned only two ways, about nuclear weapons and about human rights.   This central finding led to a new economic theory, proof of the Kondratiev Wave (54 yr.), and proof of the Juglar Cycle (8-10 yr.).  Keynes and Roosevelt had already proven the economic stimulus value of the national deficit.  It has been a long heavy lift to establish the other three basic points, just as Thomas Kuhn’s Structure of a Scientific Revolution would predict.

Military Spending Hurts the National Defense (#2 Idea)

My second book title, Strength Through Peace, conveys this concept.  While defenders of the military industrial complex often resort to the slogan Peace Through Strength, I find that slogan very misleading.  The real power of a nation lies in its economic strength even more than its military strength.  The short-term benefits of military spending are usually meager compared to the steady erosion of economic strength military spending causes.  In fact, because of Idea #1 above, premature high levels of military spending when threats are relatively low only serve the purpose of gradually weakening a nation when a major threat shows up some time later.  The longer the interval before a real military need emerges, the greater the weakening rendered by excessively high premature levels of military spending.  The Defense Strategy chapter of my 1986 book Peace Economics shows some of the trade-off charts used to estimate appropriate levels of military spending for the longer term or even for the shorter-term strategies.

Military Spending Dominates and Controls a Nation (#3 Idea)

This shows up in the regional nature of changes in military spending. What crystalizes this as a mathematical relationship is looking at the degree of militarization of a state’s economy and lumping states together in one region based on major metropolitan centers that can pull several states together into a mini-region.  Thus, the military states concept shows how politics in the United States is dominated by the military industrial complex.  All of America’s leading political institutions are dominated by figures from the high military spending states and regions.  That includes about 80% of the presidents since World War II, 80% of the cabinet, 80% of congressional leadership, and 80% of the supreme court.  The misleading positive correlation with military spending regionally fails to recognize the losses in manufacturing states under military buildups and the gains in manufacturing states under military builddowns. In other words, the nation as a whole gains when the military lowers and the nation as a whole loses when the military is increased.  This contrast shows up most sharply between the Great Lakes states industrial heartland versus the high military and financial states of the bi-coastal economy.  Great opportunities exist in the financial markets to exploit these regional differences whenever a major change in military spending occurs.

Episodic Nature of Major Wars and Economic and Natural Events (#4 Idea)

The Kondratiev Wave, 54-year cycle, shows up precisely as a perfectly sinusoidal fluctuation in the manufacturing productivity growth rate in the 63-year model mentioned in Idea #1.  After the 1988 drought in the United States I took three years to figure out the natural connection to this cycle and the war cycle.  After hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012, I created a chart of 56 major natural, economic, and war event examples of the cycle, with about 95% accuracy. I also established the connecting mechanisms between these three different forms of the cycle.  This is a great achievement that will improve forecasting for hurricanes, great recessions, and wars.  This makes possible a rational reduction in military spending as part of a national defense strategy.  Millions will benefit from improved forecasting of economic and natural disasters and wars might even be avoided when their causes are better understood as part of this long cycle.

Empire Decline and Socioeconomic Decay (#5 Idea)

My 1989 work first showed the murder and crime correlations with military spending.  This is a leading indicator of the social decay that occurs with prolonged levels of high military spending in a nation and shows up in the sharp drop in crime that occurred in the nineties with the end of Cold War high levels of military spending.  This also helps explain how crime has dropped in Germany and other European countries much more than in the United States in the twenty-first century, thanks to the post 9-11-01 military buildup and wars waged by the United States.  In fact, the Index created in the Spirit Level book shows that empire and military spending correlate even stronger than income inequality with obesity, mental health, teen birthrates, prisoners, and homicides.  The theory of empire that blames collapse on moral weakness has it backwards.  High military spending changes change the economy in the same year they occur, showing that the economic effect occurs first before the social effects, just as crime drops in the nineties took several years to take hold rather than happening immediately.  Cause and effect require a closer look than just watching correlations.  Military spending is the first domino to fall in the long process of manufacturing decline and social decay of empire. Rigidity is a result of the ensuing stagnation.  Stagnation comes in many forms, from political, to class rigidity, and the lack of social mobility.

Twelve Stages of Empire:

https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve._15_ppt._3_p._2007

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, October 1), “Valuable Peace Economics”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Valuable-Peace-Economics,2018162572.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Spectrum Peace Economics

This is looking at the invisible (beyond the first fifty) press release views on ExpertClick.com from 51 to 198.  These show increased results from the last year and are quite instructive.  Name, date, new views and rank of new views.

CIA Presidents, 1-23-16, 267 views (#1)

This drew the top interest.  Few know that Presidents Clinton and Obama worked for the CIA prior to being elected president, and, no doubt it was a major contributing factor to their success.  To be elected emperor requires either coming from a high military spending state or the CIA.   The other CIA president, George Bush Sr., was appointed CIA director under Ford “despite his lack of CIA experience.”  Evidence shows he was CIA circa 1963 in Dallas.  Obama went to Pakistan twice 1981-83, the staging ground for the Afghanistan War by the CIA against Russia.  Clinton’s home state of Arkansas was ground zero for factories contributing to the eighties Contra War in Nicaragua.  See also CIA lifetime history, 4-16-16, 117 views (#26)

Earthquake Prediction, 8-26-14, 261 views (#2)

Earthquake prediction and especially hurricane prediction are important components of the natural 54 year cycle theory, a key to the 63 year US economic model, and the timing of major wars (US, Europe, and Rome).  War prediction enables a country to take advantage of peace economics to keep military spending minimal (and growth high) during more peaceful periods (circa 1977 to 2004, circa 2031 to 2058) and to better prepare for the circa 2025 major war.  See also Nepal Chile 4-28-15, 185 views (#7) and Violence Cycle, 11-29-15, 172 views (#10) and Cycle Matters, 8-3-14, 118 views (#25).

Nobel Prize Watch, 3-19-16, 254 views (#3)

This summarizes my early attempts to watch the Norwegian Nobel Committee watch me after my first nomination due 2-1-16.  The near miss in 2017 and the “ten times normal” heavy watching this year in 2018 make me very optimistic about October 5th.  See also Response Norway, 2-6-16, 130 views (#18)

Religion and Empire, 1-3-15, 207 views (#4)

Some have estimated that as much as 63% of wars have religion as a main cause.  My point in this release was that the Roman Empire coopted Christianity and put a lesser importance on doctrines of the peaceful shall inherit the earth, live by the sword and die by the sword, good Samaritan, and turn the other cheek.  Also that the Roman Catholic church became the first protestant church when Rome asserted authority over the four other Pentarchy centers of the early Chistian church, Alexandria, Constantinople, Jerusalem, and Antioch.  Note that half the leaders of communes in first two hundred years of the early church were women, before patriarchy took over.  Empire and militarism promote patriarchy.  See also Modern Feudalism, 2-21-15, 115 views (#28)

Football Baseball War, 5-28-16, 206 views (#5)

American football with its heavy emphasis on militaristic terms and practices, supplants baseball as America’s top sport during the Cold War.  Meanwhile demilitarized Japan adopts baseball as its top sport.  Empire militarizes the culture of a country.

Walker Work Dignity, 2-28-15, 193 views (#6)

This talks about the 500,000 people of the Wisconsin uprising who protested the taking away of public union and teacher trade union rights in a right wing takeover by Governor Walker of Wisconsin after the 2010 election.  The protest lasted four weeks long, taking over the state capital with at least 10,000 people every day protesting and crowds up to 150,000 on the four Saturdays.  Anti-union is a sign of empire or fascism.  The move was a sneak attack by the far right in an attempt to gut support for the other political party.

10 Scientific Revolution Facts, 2-28-15, 174 views (#8)

Scientific Revolution, 2-28-15, 173 views (#9)

These two combined would actually be #1 with 347 views.  These ten facts adopted from Thomas Kuhn’s book illustrate the difficulties of getting recognition for a new scientific paradigm.  In the case of Peace Economics, economists believe a science of economics is not possible.  In the Copernican Revolution, the church persecuted Galileo.  This has been my story for the last thirty years or so.

Eugene Politician, 5-14-14, 166 views (#11)

This is the political career I was following until I discovered Peace Economics.  My goals then changed to seek scientific glory instead of political glory.  Served thirteen years 1980-93 on the State Central Committee of the Democratic Party of Oregon, Congressional District Chair 1982-1987, National delegate 1984, and invited to Clinton inaugural 1993.  Starting two new fields, Peace Economics and Natural Cycle Theory, will save countless lives, with “reduced military spending” leading to less wars, more prosperity, and lower murder and crime rates.  Not to mention, better stock market opportunities, less political corruption, and better long term hurricane forecasts among other benefits of empire and cycle theory.

Grandpa Horicon Marsh, 3-1-14, 148 views (#14)

My heritage includes the grandfather who as State Senator funded the Horicon Marsh dam in 1927, third largest wildlife refuge in America.  My mother’s third cousin was President Kennedy, and my father’s third cousin founded Villanova Law School.  I’m a sixth generation descendent of the Bishop of York 1776 John Markham.  Direct descendent of Claron de Marsham, top general of William the Conqueror 1066.

10 Ferguson Jury Mistakes, 12-6-14, 146 views (#16)

This account of the murder of Michael Brown starting the Black Lives Matter movement “hands up don’t shoot” clearly explains how and why the jury made a huge mistake.  Colin Kaepernick sacrificed his NFL career to take a knee at football games.  See also Baltimore Riot, 5-2-15, 103 views (#38)

Violent Society, 7-23-16, 118 views (#23)

Military Terror Policing, 8-17-14, 108 views (#33)

This explains the militarization of America’s police forces used to quell protests in Ferguson.  Another case of the deepening of empire over time in America.

Low Military Defense, 12-5-15, 102 views (#41)

This is the key peace economics concept:  that too much too soon military spending is actually counterproductive to defending a nation, because:  the ultimate defense depends on the size of nation’s economy and excessive military spending steadily erodes that crucial economic strength.  An alternative title could be “Real Politics Re-Invented”.

Seventeen Key Findings and Claims of Peace Economics over thirty years:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, September 21), “Spectrum Peace Economics”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Spectrum-Peace-Economics,2018162207.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Militarism Distorts America

The United States of America has changed a lot since World War II.  Some changes were immediate, some changes took a generation or more to sink in.  Military spending, my preferred empirical measure of empire, is the prime factor for almost all of these major changes in US society.  All of my various models show that military spending has negligible or no benefit for the economy.  It acts like lost capital investment, lost manufacturing, as the resources going into the military deplete civilian manufacturing elsewhere in America, especially depleting the Great Lakes industrial economy of the heartland.  This last part is clearly shown by regional models.  These economic changes then distort America in many ways, political, social, moral, sapping the energy and enthusiasm of all Americans as a whole.  This is what I call the “social decay of empire.”  It includes rising crime, rising income inequality, less social mobility, growing apathy, and rising anxiety and depression.  Stagnation sets in economically first, then stagnation contributes to political gridlock over time.  Fortunately empire decay is not inevitable, lowering military spending can reverse course.  But many of the social time lags can persist generationally, even while economic growth changes annually.

Similar Systems

The empire system is similar to two others:  the medieval system and the third world system.  All three systems are characterized by high military spending, high income inequality, and authoritarian power structures.  The church and ideology gain strength in such systems while science and innovation suffer.  Social mobility suffers as rigidity is favored in class based systems of power and opportunities.  Crime, poor health, drugs, gambling, red tape and escapist entertainment rise under such systems, reflecting widespread alienation and apathy.  Power and control are favored in such systems over achievement and individual merit.

Challenger Systems

Achievement is more evident than power as a prime motive of the emerging power of a challenger society.  Left alone to develop or separated by large bodies of water, societies can grow more powerful and economically strong until they are ready to sneak up on the reigning hegemonic or empire society.  Major wars of the 54 year cycle type are often between the number one economic power and the number two economic power.  Note that the economic strength is usually more important than the military strength.  Moving up the economic ladder of nations requires keeping the military low and minimal, a strategy that fits the “reduction of armies” clause in Alfred Nobel’s will as the second of three ways to earn a Nobel Peace Prize.  This also fits the biblical verse of the Sermon on the Mount of “blessed are the peacemakers for they shall inherit the earth.”  Aligning the motives of the powerful and the peacemakers is a great way to achieve world peace.

Engineering is important to an emerging society to meet its goals.  Lawyering is important to the more stable empire society, because a slow growth society will naturally have more conflicts as boundaries are defined and defended.  In the high growth society such boundary disputes look like a waste of time compared to pioneering the next great step forward.  This leads to achievement, engineering, merit, and innovation being valued over power, control, position, and legal boundaries.

Warfare Systems

War is the easiest and quickest way to take away a large number of lives.  The ultimate power is to take away another life.  Valuing your friends over your enemies leads to a certain tolerance of civilian collateral damage in the process.  This relative carelessness carries over into civilian life in an empire culture with a similar devaluing of “others” such as crime victims or other ethnic groups and genders.  Alienation and separation from others makes crime more likely, just as economic stagnation makes some people more desperate.  The fear based brain and the rational brain correspond to the power oriented and achievement oriented societies respectively.  Violence crime and corruption are fellow travelers of the fear based brain empire societies.  Doing whatever you can get away with under the law is a corruption of doing whatever is fair and best for everyone concerned.  Thus it is no accident that the highest military spending per capita US states were the leaders in the corruption of mortgages that resulted in the Great Recession of 2008.

Timing Factor

Economics is clearly the driving factor in empires, as changes in military spending change the economic growth rate in the same year.  Great Recession data even suggests the military economic change shows up quarterly.  The 1982 recession starts in July 1981 suggesting the anticipation of the fiscal year 1982 military buildup began then with congressional committee budget decisions essentially completed that month.  Then defense contractors started hiring in July 1981 draining key talent away from civilian businesses to begin the recession as those civilian businesses start to collapse.  On the other hand, crime rates dropping after the end of the Cold War in 1989-1991 suggest a five year delay between military spending changes and crime rate changes, suggesting that the formative years before age 18 are crucial to crime statistics.  Elementary teachers can spot the at risk students immediately and criminal activity can begin before age 18, so maybe a 9 or 11 year moving average of military spending maybe better correlate with the crime changes.  Likewise, crime does not move up immediately with the Iraq War bulge in US military spending.  Still peaceful Germany lowers its crime rate about 20% relative to the US rate over than time period (2003-2011 inclusive) of the nine year US war.  The end of Cold War military budget cuts were much deeper in Europe than in America dropping crime rates in Europe.  Income inequality quadrupled in three decades and social mobility was made much worse over time after the 1981 Reagan tax cut dropped the top tax rate 60% (mainly affecting the top 1%) while only cutting the middle class tax rates 15%.   The Yankee ingenuity confident America of its first two centuries seemed to dissipate after the Vietnam War while at the same time locking in the empire attitude with the two generation long Cold War.  Trump shook up the international structure politically while preserving the empire economically with a military budget increase.  Lowering the military budget after the Iraq War withdrawal in 2011 increased job growth for the last five Obama years.  Trump’s military buildup stalled that job growth in 2017.  Job growth in the last five Obama years was 25% higher than Trump’s first year, making that year 2017 the worst job growth of the last six years.

Findings and Special Claims over 33 years of military economy research:

https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, August 14), “Militarism Distorts America”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Militarism-Distorts-America,2018160716.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

 

Climate Theories Clarified

Today’s climate change discussion has become contentious in America.  Those that try to deny the reality of the Greenhouse Effect have so put the scientists in a box that they have been over-reacting defensively.  Without the Greenhouse Effect our world would be an ice ball.  That’s 16 degrees cooler Celsius or 29 degrees cooler Fahrenheit.  Melting the ice over Greenland or Antarctica would raise the oceans enough to endanger half the world’s population.  So the crisis is not trivial, yet not all the information is out there and the science is not complete.  Fake science from the fossil fuels industry is a real challenge, and because of this fake science, some real science is being misjudged, overlooked, or even attacked.  I dare to set the record straight at the risk of being labelled a climate denier, which I am not.

Greenhouse Effect Clarified

In 1828 when the first research discovered that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can raise temperatures, it was also discovered that each doubling of the carbon dioxide raised the temperature a fixed amount.  So there are diminishing returns on the Greenhouse Effect.  This was demonstrated by a student paper using a climate model that showed when he exceeded the professor’s instructions to go out one hundred years only, and instead went out two hundred years, he discovered that the effects leveled off in the second century.

In my Unitarian church group in Eugene Oregon USA, in the early nineties, I had a professor friend who taught Biology.  One day he stated that the environment is getting so bad that in about a decade we are going to face real disasters.  Then his wife spoke up and said he’s been saying the same thing for fifty years.  Perhaps Lovelace’s Gaia Hypothesis about the resiliency of the Earth is accurate, and the Earth adjusts to all these insults and injuries.

In a seminar, circa 1990, I was attacked viciously just for asking a question of one environmentalist academic on a panel at Notre Dame.  Late on the plane flight home I asked a scientist sitting next to me, and he answered that the science is there, but there are lots of uncertainties remaining.  The 97% of scientists claim has been around for a very long time.  Michael Mann’s attempt to eliminate the warmer period one thousand years ago is a major exception to his hockey stick claims.  Many other claims ignore their lack of current fit when this cycle theory would readily correct that inaccuracy.  Telling them that after their lecture and giving them a handout does no good.

Reuschlein’s Climate Cycle Origins

Inspired by Richard Hansen of NOAA data from 1899 to 1988 shown on C-SPAN, about the extreme nature of the 1988 drought in the USA, I videotaped and decoded that data to begin a three year effort to explain the 54 year cycle’s natural origins.  Only the 1934 and 1936 droughts met the very high temperature departure level of the 1988 drought, 54 and 52 years apart.  Each of these three years were 50% more than the 4th place year.  Using 16 data sets from “Trends 90” and other sources, the puzzle finally fell into place comparing the Northern and Southern Hemispheres temperatures.  After I published “Natural Global Warming” May 7, 1991, one of my readers next month commented that the June 16, 1991 Pinatubo volcano eruption confirmed my theory, exactly 108 years after Krakatoa in 1883.  Those are the two largest volcanic eruptions in the last 200 years.  The US Blizzard of 1996 was the biggest blizzard since the US Blizzard of 1888 just 108 years before.  These two perfect fits were every other 54 year cycle and both in the oceanic half (Southern Hemisphere hotter) of the 108 year cycle.

Weather Wealth and Wars

Extending the cycle to economics and then wars took several years.  Multi-year moving averages of different lengths clearly pointed to tops and bottoms 54 year apart in the US economic history data, as well as the US temperature data.  But the timing did not match and it took a long time to find the link.  The link finally emerged not through agriculture but through Frederick Taylor is the pioneer in this area with 1890s railway building studies.  Then the relative economic success of temperate zone versus tropical economies, stock market studies showing better performance in cold months and long term US analysis showing weaker economic growth in long term warming periods all confirm the Taylor findings in a wider set of areas.  Lastly, the major wars had a periodicity to them.  They consistently occur after major economic booms are ending, when wealth and differences among nations are at a peak.  They also occur in major cold years at the end of cooling streaks.  Knowing when wars tend to occur reduces the uncertainty that leads to military over-preparation, which is costly to society.  Good defense planning will reduce the military whenever war is less likely.  Nicolai Kondratieff in 1926 in Russia began the work on long cycles in economics.  See the link attached for my detailed power-point as presented in Toronto at the World Conference on Sociology to a beaming audience of proud Russians and others.

Presentation Combining the Three Kondratieff Waves, Natural, Economic, Wars:

https://www.academia.edu/37064850/Weather_Wealth_Wars_54_Year_Cycle_7-21-18_2p

List of 56 major events 2.5% error (1.32 years average error) on 54 years cycle time:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yrCycle_3p.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, July 27), “Climate Theories Clarified”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Climate-Theories-Clarified-USA,2018160104.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Media Influence by the CIA

Ever since the passage of the National Security Act of 1947, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has conducted media influence in the United States through its “Operation Mockingbird”.  This is probably the main reason the international “Reporters Without Borders” gives a very low free press ranking among all nations, lower than other G7 nations such as Canada, Germany, Japan, France, and Britain.  Only Italy is lower probably due to the press there being owned by a recent former conservative Prime Minister.  National security issues particularly are subject to this kind of CIA influence. This is an empire story issue.

National Security Act of 1947

This Act represents a radical departure from American traditions begun by our first president George Washington and the founding figures.  The act was passed over the opposition to it by the Department of War and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.  Their opposition was based on the American tradition of maintaining a small standing army between wars and using volunteer forces to fill out the ranks during war.  Their opposition was based in part on Washington’s admonition against foreign entanglements.  Changing the name of the Department of War to the Department of Defense represents the change in attitude from that of a republic to that of a worldwide empire.  In actuality, this represented a change from defense to offense, from national border concerns to world control concerns.  Inside the CIA the change went from classic intelligence operations to also include covert overseas operations to maintain the new empire.

Commercialism and Democracy

A long running theme in American history is the foreign policy clash between pursuing commercial interests and pursuing democratic values.  In founding figure terms this was the clash between Hamilton and Jefferson.  In twentieth century terms this was the clash between business interests and worker interests in the democracies, or the clash between small business freedom Leninism and totalitarian complete state control Stalinism in the communist world.  Contradictions abound here so I hesitate to elaborate too much.

President Kennedy

Kennedy’s journey toward peace was a long and difficult one.  In between crises in the Bay of Pigs, the Berlin Wall and the Cuban Missile Crisis, back channel negotiations continued between Zorin representing the Soviet Union and McCloy representing the USA for mutual disarmament and an end to the Cold War in his second term.  His Peace Corps and Alliance for Progress used carrots instead of sticks in his diplomacy and he was determined to end covert operations in the CIA in his second term.  In a September 8th 1963 executive order he planned to begin troop pullouts from Vietnam starting in December 1963.  His treaty banning atmospheric nuclear testing was the first on many with the Soviet Union.  All of this was ended by his assassination.  Lyndon Johnson was opposed to this peace initiative and asked McCloy to break it off.  Kennedy laughed when McCloy told him this and assured him he had the full support of the president.  The CIA man Kennedy had fired was put in charge of the Warren Commission whitewash.  In the book “Brothers” Bobby Kennedy intuitively understood the forces opposed to his brother and blamed them for his brother’s death.  Jackie had the French intelligence look into the assassination and they came back with the word Lyndon Johnson was behind it.  Watergate burglar and long-time CIA operative E. Howard Hunt also confirms CIA and Johnson involvement with the plot in his death bed tape.  Tony Morales of the CIA was Johnson’s alleged coordinator for the plot and also was in the Ambassador Hotel when Bobby Kennedy was shot.  Khrushchev cried when he heard Kennedy died and lost his leadership the next year, as militarists on both sides prevailed.  The Brezhnev military buildup that ensued ultimately brought the Soviet Union down.  Likewise Vietnam brought Johnson down.  Bobby Kennedy’s election to the presidency threatened to undue Johnson’s legacy and reopen the investigation into President Kennedy’s death.  FBI director J. Edger Hoover did not have the blackmail material against Bobby that he had against John and Martin Luther King Jr.

Personal Experience

As a peace activist I have learned about CIA influence gradually over the course of my lifetime.  Initially I read Newsweek cover to cover during the Vietnam War years, and assumed their hawkish perspective even after Tet in 1968.  I also assumed military spending stimulated the economy until my exposure to Sivard’s research in 1983.  I assumed the Warren Commission was right about the Kennedy assassination until a 1988 Geraldo Rivera show began the long process of casting doubt and numerous books and academic conference presentations increasing confirmed the clear new realistic interpretation.  Then the Gulf and Iraq Wars cast increasing doubt about official positions.  Particularly the national and local peace movement discussion list-serves 2001-2005 were huge in clarifying my current understandings.  Watching Ted Koppel’s nightline July 24, 2001 confirmed one of my key suspicions.  Koppel was former Naval Intelligence, hence could get better stories with the help of Intelligence insiders and his own security clearance.  He had Bush’s deputy defense guy on Nightline; Paul Wolfowitz, who insisted nuclear missile defense is a top defense priority.  But Ted used the pentagon’s own list of ten major threats to show that terrorism was most likely (#1) and rogue nation nuclear attack was #9 and assault by another nuclear threat like Russia or China was only #10.  He could not have done this without security clearance as I found out trying to obtain a copy of this ranked list.  I had someone at the Defense Monitor guiding me through numerous phone calls in my effort, only to end up with the pentagon refusing to give me the list because it was classified.  That’s why Bob Woodward, former naval intelligence, Walter Cronkite, OSS during the war, and Ben Bradley, Washington Post Editor and former CIA, and many others like them rise to the top of the media.

Church Commission

The 1975-76 Church Commission on Intelligence Activities revealed many abuses of power by the CIA, domestic and foreign, including foreign assassinations and domestic control of the American media, including the 400 top press persons in the nation. While Woodward and Bernstein became household words for their unraveling of the Watergate scandal that brought down Nixon, Woodward’s career was soaring while Bernstein was ignored after his expose of Operation Mockingbird’s control of the American press in a 25,000 word article for Rolling Stone magazine.  This is how the CIA handles whistleblowers about its various blunders and misdeeds.  Only now, some thirty years later is Bernstein reappearing on television shows in recent years.  Gary Webb of the San Jose Mercury News “Dark Alliance” series is another treated poorly by former CIA veterans in the media.  He dared to uncover the CIA role in the crack cocaine epidemic started by Freeway Rick in Los Angeles and protected by the Drug Enforcement Administration to fund the Contra Wars in Central America in the eighties.

Recent Years

National Security continues to be a weak spot in America’s so-called free press.  Even though 15 million protested in major cities worldwide February 15th one month before the 2003 Iraq War started, this was dismissed by President Bush as a “focus group.”  I personally attended a protest of 500,000 people in the nation’s capital in September 2003 and the New York Times reported the crowd as “tens of thousands” deliberately understating the crowd size.  This happened again when 600,000 protested the Republican Convention in August 2004.  Judy Miller dutifully reported in the New York Times the exaggerations and distortions of Dick Cheney and company about the weapons of mass destruction of Iraq.  Phil Donahue was taken off the air for daring to counter these lies.  Even one year after the invasion, 90% of American troops in Iraq falsely believed Saddam Hussein was behind the 9-11-01 attacks, so carefully inserted and repeated wording by the administration had left that impression.

For a tribute to the world peace President Kennedy:

https://www.academia.edu/5184189/KENNEDY_50th_Anniversary_Tribute_12ppt.2p. 2013

President Kennedy was my mother’s third cousin.

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, May 28), “Media Influence by the CIA”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Media-Influence-by-the-CIA,2018157946.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted for 2016, Given Odds for 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Announced October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

Good Concepts 2018 Update

These ten pages of key concepts will give the reader some understanding of both my breakthrough ideas and personal background.  The first seven pages have eight power point frames each about a major concept of empire and climate theory.  The eighth page looks at ten key points about paradigm shifting revolutions, then the last two pages are biographical notes about my curriculum vitae.  The detail can be found on the academia.edu website link at the end, but the gist of each is given below:

Socioeconomic Decline of Empire

This is the best way to frame the effect of military spending on society.  It starts dragging the economy down and after a generation or so starts consuming the whole society politically, socially, economically, corrupting everything in sight.  Effects the economy immediately year by year and things like the crime and health rates over the time to raise a child.

Banks and Fascism

This side looks at the evolution of an empire and things like the imperial presidency and fascism.  The press, opportunity costs, and current history events are covered also.

Land Ocean Cycle

This powerful phenomenum emerges clearly out of a detailed analysis of the many sections of the planet as the temperature of the whole changes differently from the various parts.  There are many confirming patterns in the details beyond this simple summary.

Climate Cycle Affects Economics and War

When Nicolai Kondratieff first documented the long economic cycle of about 50 years in 1926, he thought of it as a manmade cycle.  Little did he see the relationship between the natural cycle, the economic cycle, and the war cycle.  Adherents of each type of cycle don’t seem to venture out of their silos to see how they each relate to the other.

Defense Strategy Lessons from World War II

The high cost and strategy of war are hinted at in these slides.  The concept of keeping the military low to keep the economy strong for the long run major wars every fifty years or so and the ability to mobilize over a short period of time argue for lower levels of military spending.  The defense strategy paper on academia.edu is necessary to better understand the possibilities for an effective defense recognizing the economic danger of high military spending.

Economic Model of 20th Century

The three to five major components of the long term model show how an accurate theory of economics can be built.  This is often believed impossible by many in the economic profession.  The basics are covered here, but the economic model paper on my academia.edu website is necessary for a more detailed understanding.

Birth of “Dungeons and Dragons”

These insights came from my wargaming years 1964-1974 with Gary Gygax, the inventor of Dungeons and Dragons role playing games. At the end is a comparison of Reuschlein and Gygax.

Scientific Revolution Facts

I distilled these key ideas from Thomas Kuhn’s “Structure of a Scientific Revolution” and live the adventure all the time as I endeaver to stake my claim to my own scientific discoveries.  These ten facts hit home to me the hardest.

Nine Fields of Knowledge Create Ideas

Here is a two page version of my curriculum vitae, with the important addition of nine fields of knowledge I found essential to the building of my theories.  Any one of them missing and I would not have succeeded.

For a basic ten pages read on my ideas and background:

https://www.academia.edu/s/979f0fe1e3/good-concepts-2018-update-ten-pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, May 13), “Good Concepts 2018 Update”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Good-Concepts-2018-Update,2018157444.aspx

Great Reads Make Theories

World Military and Social Expenditures (1981-1996) Ruth Leger Sivard

Sivard maintained for many years a worldwide catalogue of military education and healthcare expenditures for each of the 191 countries.  One year she catalogued the deaths from each war in the twentieth century, mainly the 77 million in the two world wars, but also the many third world proxy wars costing tens of millions of lives during the Cold War.  From my point of view, her multi-decade bar charts of the G7 and leading economies of world showing how as military spending increases capital investment and manufacturing productivity decrease.

Climate and Life (1983) Steven Schneider

This is a fascinating account of the rise of life on planet Earth over 4.5 billion years. How volcanoes gave the early Earth water for the oceans and carbon dioxide for the atmosphere, the two key ingredients for plant life.  How for the first 2.2 billion years of 3.8 billion years of life, life existed without the benefit of even a cell wall in the primordial sea.  Here I learned in a paragraph the importance of evaporation as the main first use of solar energy (85%) and the main difference in heating rates of land and ocean. This leads to all that follows in my discovery of the natural global warming cycle origins of the Kondratieff Wave.  The book is an impressive tour de force by a leading climate scientist and journal editor.

Spirit Level (UK 2010 US 2011) Richard Wilkinson and Kate Puckett

These authors document the extensive relationship between social disfunction and rising income inequality.  Human beings, as social animals, do not relate well to a sharp rich poor divide.  Indeed, this may well have been the central message of Jesus of Nazareth.  Society operates better as equals than as lords and serfs.  The lack of social mobility, crime, and poor health are all functions of the Genie coefficient.  Also, anxiety levels continue to escalate over recent decades in America.

Guns, Germs, and Steel:  the Fate of Human Societies (1997) Jared Diamond

Diamond documents the emergence of Western civilization in a scientific non-racist way.  He notes the importance of large mammals to domesticate as a key.  No region of the world has more than one or two such animals except for the fertile crescent.  The cow goat sheep pig combination of four allowed mankind to inoculate from disease becoming hardier.  Later the separation into many nations allowed Europe to learn from others nation’s mistakes and successes, speeding development.

Long Cycles (1987) Joshua S. Goldstein

This political scientist at MIT was no doubt influenced by J. W. Forrester’s long cycle work in the business school.  Forrester founded system dynamics.  Goldstein tracks European war deaths as a percentage of the European population for each war since year 1500.  This five hundred year study clearly shows a robust 50 some year cycle in major wars.  I find a clear 54 year cycle in the start date of these major wars by my own analysis.

Statistical Abstract of the United States (1899-2012)

My favorite here is the Bicentennial Edition showing a continuous record of economic data from 1889 to 1975, free from the obvious political bias of the individual year publications under various presidencies.  The rich variety and inherent accuracy of these records are confirmed by their use in my stunningly accurate economic model from 1920 to 1996 of the United States. Crime records and state by state military spending records are invaluable.  That this has been discontinued is a terrible shame.

Trends 90 (1990) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

This compendium of temperature records for various sections of the planet allows for the necessary data to document my natural cycle theory on several levels.  The key for me was graphing the difference between the annual warming records over the last century and a half of the Northern versus Southern Hemispheres.  This is a good proxy for the land versus the ocean.  The dominant Southern Hemisphere for the sixty years 1860 to 1920 and the subsequent Northern Hemisphere dominance of 48 years from 1921 to 1968 show the 108 year cycle that colors the successive 54 year cycles.  Now we are in a new Southern Hemisphere dominant cycle from 1969 to 2028.

1984 (1948) George Orwell

Orwell correctly anticipated the war is peace double speak of the Ronald Reagan re-election bid in 1984.  He saw how the Cold War was beginning to color our dialogue after World War Two.  He anticipated the tortured language and justifications of empire as power transferred from the British Empire to the American Century (a euphemism for American Empire).  Wars in this period of time are repeatedly justified with language later shown to be false and misleading, just aa in this great work by a great author.  Having read this book in the sixties, I later re-read it in 1984 and noted how well it described that year’s dominant politics.

The Gospels of the Bible (Matthew, Mark, Luke, John)

The Sermon on the mount in Matthew’s chapter four states that the peacemakers shall inherit the earth.  Indeed, this is the fundamental truth of Peace Economics.  Low military spending nations grow their economies faster than high military spending nations, eventually becoming dominant. Those nations who live by the sword die by the sword just as the gospels say.  As you sow, so shall you reap, and pride cometh before a fall also ring true in my Peace Economics research.

For a basic seven pages read on my ideas and background:

https://www.academia.edu/33884446/Main_Ideas_Summary_July_2017_7_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, May 6), “Great Reads Make Theories”, Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Great-Reads-Make-Theories,2018157177.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, Given Odds 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Possible Favorite in 2018 Nobel Peace Prize October 5th.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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