Earthquake Hurricane Update
The 54-year long cycle shows up in many ways. The normal timespan is 54 years, but it really is sometimes 27 years or sometimes 108 years. Every 27 years global warming goes from a hot trend to a cool trend and the turning points are often marked by major hurricanes, focused on major US cities. Flooding is considered the major threat in a hurricane, so historical flooding patterns are a main marker of the pattern. 108-year trends occur in blizzards and volcanoes because every other 54-year cycle comes when global warming is coming from the land or the ocean and Northeastern blizzards in the US or southwestern Pacific volcanoes tend to be by oceans. This is because every other 54 year cycle is led by the Southern or Northern Hemisphere, with Southern meaning more coastal and oceanic and Northern meaning more inland and land based, just like the two Hemispheres tend to be with most of the Earth’s land in the North, and most of the Earth’s ocean in the South. Lately, because of global warming, there have been more 27-year events rather than 54-year events.
The Greater Los Angeles area had a 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Northridge in 1994 with 60 deaths and thousands injured. Twenty-five years later, halfway to Las Vegas, the Ridgecrest earthquake of 7.1 magnitude hit in a largely unpopulated area. That is just two years off a perfect 27-year cycle. For comparison, the Great San Francisco 1906 earthquake had a magnitude of 7.9. The 1989 “repeat” had a magnitude of 6.9 and collapsed the Bay Area Bridge, just two years long on the 81-year anniversary of three 27s. Then the 108-year anniversary had a mild 6.0 quake in South Napa in 2014. Because of the wide variance in magnitudes, the cyclic behavior of earthquakes is less rigorously scientific than other natural phenomena such as blizzards, volcanoes, hurricanes, droughts, and floods. See Water Cycle reference at the end of this release.
Puerto Rico was devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017, funds for recovery estimated $100 billion, with only $10 billion delivered so far. North Carolina was devastated by Hurricane Florence in 2018. Both had as a predecessor Hurricane Hugo in 1989, 28 and 29 years before respectively. These are very good fits for the 27-year cycle, only one year or two years off, respectively. Hugo clipped a corner of Puerto Rico and went on to dump a foot of rain on North Carolina. Maria was much worse for Puerto Rico and Florence was much worse for North Carolina with two feet of rain over most of the state. Both show the worsening trend of global warming overall, yet the cyclical nature of how often these major events recur.
Iowa Mississippi Floods
Iowa public radio said “Farmer’s concern is understandable because this year’s corn planting progress is two weeks behind the five-year average, and tardiest since 1995” because of excessive rain. So, a major impact of these excessive upper Midwest rains is a return to the Mississippi floods years of 1993 and 1995, with the quad cities of Iowa and Illinois facing record flood levels in 2019. That suggests a 26 year repeat of the 1993 flood (the greater one of the 1993 and 1995 floods). That’s only one year off the perfect 27-year repeat cycle. Add to this the Hurricane Barry floods in Louisiana this last weekend (landfall July 13, 2019) with state capital Baton Rouge (upriver of New Orleans) facing record flood levels, also on this 26-year cycle. According to Iowa public radio “Conditions are even worse in neighboring states. Illinois has planted only 35 percent of its intended corn acreage, Nebraska 70 percent and Missouri 62 percent. Minnesota has two-thirds planted. South Dakota’s 25 percent planted compares to the five-year average of 90-percent complete by this stage of the growing season.” Interstate 80, a major San Francisco Chicago New York highway was completely flooded throughout much of Iowa recently after weeks of storms coming through.
All these major events recently confirm two things. 1) That the pace of the cycle is shortening more and more to the 27-year cycle from a more normal 54-year cycle thanks to global warming trends which have shown a doubling of the pace since 1973. 2) Mounting evidence shows the next global warming acceleration will begin about 2025 and even the many signs of dismal news this century must be taken in the context of a relative slowdown since 1998 of the global trend will be reversed in 2025 as the current 1994-2021 relative cooling trend of the cycle good for economic growth will go into a 2021-2048 relative warming trend bad for economic growth. Turnarounds tend to show a four-year delay, making 1917, 1944, 1998, and 2025 the endpoints of preceding trends even though multi-year averaging tens to show 1913, 1940, 1994, and 2021 as the true turning points from a longer-term perspective. This kind of like the exaggerated wake of a boat after turning showing up a little later than the actual turn. We on the water planet must realize that the 71% of Earth’s surface dominated by ocean acts like a shock absorber to the warming cycle system. Transfer of energy between the deep ocean and the surface ocean helps ensure a return to natural energy balance after 27 years of land overheating leading to 27 years of oceanic cooling. Not counting the artic poles, land tends get about 10% more rain than ocean overall, thanks to mountains. Rain over the poles is a tiny fraction of that over the tropics.
Additional information about Global Warming Cycle (5 p.) and important accuracy addenda (4 p.):
Please cite this work as follows: Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, July 17), “Earthquake Hurricane Update” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Earthquake-Hurricane-Update,2019182966.aspx
Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 79 Web Looks in 9 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.