bobreuschlein

Military Empire and Climate Cycle Views

Disruption of 8 Industries

Overview

Adoption of the new Reuschlein sciences of economics, empire theory, and the global warming cycle will change everything, especially disrupting certain industries and many fields.  Here is a partial list.

Economic Development

Proofs over many decades, the Cold War, the twentieth century, and now the twenty-first century 9-11 military buildup, Great Recession, and Obama Trump recovery show continuous proof that military spending increases hurt manufacturing, productivity, capital investment, and economic and jobs growth rates precisely and in every situation.  Bottom line research and capital resources of a nation can be used to grow the economy and produce goods or be diverted into power projection through military spending, but the choice is binary, one avenue leads to economic growth and the other leads to lost manufacturing jobs transferred over to the defense service “make work” economy instead to give a false impression of economic growth.  In fact, the “make work” economy depresses manufacturing states in order to give pseudo-growth to military spending states, as research and capital are merely redeployed among the states using the federal budget process.  The result is re-arranged economic growth in an atmosphere of overall reduced growth.  This pattern can be supplemented by deficit or tax cut economic growth to camouflage or offset the negative military economy effect.  Changes in deficit minus military change the economic growth rate.  Measured in economic growth rate, jobs growth rate, or unemployment rate change all work about the same, relative to trend.

Economic Prediction

The uncanny accuracy long term of the Reuschlein economic model shows up increasingly clearly over time, as annual poor accuracy becomes more accurate like the decade long Juglar cycle accuracy over time.  The in between years in a nine-year Juglar investment cycle show an 80% reduction in volatility from the twenties to the eighties as industries gradually conquer the inventory recessions so common before 1980.  Now recessions since 1982 in America have followed the nine-year Juglar cycle, 1982, 1991, 2001, and 2009.  Trade war might give the next recession in 2020, just as trade war gave us the Great Depression in the early thirties.  Withdrawal from Iraq military cuts lead to unemployment rate reductions in the five years from 2011 to 2015 at almost twice the rate of the military buildup years from 2016 to 2018.  The current formula looks like accuracy is now coming in the annual year by year situation, not just in the decade long Juglar cycle.  The new short-term formula:  deficits add to economic growth and military spending reduces economic growth, dollar for dollar.

Political Prediction   

Because there is nothing in the federal government budget like military spending.  It is the largest category of expense in the authorized budget, about half of the total.  Most of the rest of the budget is entitlements or otherwise relatively fixed in distribution among the states.  During the Cold War 80% of the variation of per capita federal spending in each state was caused by the military spending differences, with about half the states getting half the national average of military spending per capita, and the other half getting 150% of the national average for the military.  This makes those who control the military budget the most powerful people in congress, along with the president.  These people not only dominate the leadership positions in congress (80% from high military states and 20% from low military states, but they also dominate the presidential primaries and general election, such that high military state candidates won all eleven Cold War elections and the seven major party nominees from low military spending states all lost.  Post Cold War the two Democratic presidents came from CIA backgrounds and low military spending states.  Military research funding is in the top three states of California, Massachusetts, and North Carolina, with Silicon Valley, Route 128, and Research Triangle respectively.  California has four times that of the other two.  Post Cold War the top research institution went from MIT to Johns Hopkins, from weapons to foreign policy, with the increase in the CIA noted in the elected presidents.

Social Mobility Prediction   

Large military spending will devastate manufacturing over time, changing a technology-oriented economy (manufacturing) into a services-oriented economy (financial and defense).  This state of empire created also dries up social mobility creating a class-based society.  I notice this all the time as increasingly elites from media, Hollywood, and government are the sons and daughters of previous elites.  High growth encourages diversity and low growth (military empire) encourages classism and nepotism.  Markets are fluid, political command is rigid.

National Defense Strategy

The military economic effect is so dominant in economics that those nations that overdo military defense will pay a very heavy price in the long run.  Minimizing your defense maximizes your growth and maximizes great power longevity.  The heavy-handed empire defense will always backfire in the long run.  Lightweight English bows and arrows defeated the heavy armored French in the battle of Agincourt.  Land armies are always much more expensive than navies, because they are essential for all land powers.  Sea powers are protected from land armies by large bodies of water, like the English Channel, or the Japan Sea, or America’s two oceans, hence they can defend more cheaply.

Investment Predictions

Changes in the military budget affect the low military inland Great Lakes area manufacturing states even more than their direct effect on military states, about two to four times as much.  But because this effect is not obvious, the inland manufacturing states are largely at the mercy of the coastal military states.  Because of the preference for military spending in the Republican party and for domestic spending in the Democratic party, changes in political parties controlling congress will have profound changes in regional economies.  This was so overlooked in 1994 that you could have waited two months to invest in defense stocks and still made a 70% profit a year and a half later.  Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio are four of the top five manufacturing states that will boom the next time military spending goes down.  California, Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia, and Arizona are traditional high military spending states that boom during military buildups.  In the four decades since the top tax rate was dropped 60% by Reagan in 1981-1984, banks have grown their relative share of the economy ten-fold and the top 1% income earners have quadrupled their share of national income while the lower 99% have flat lined.  All these effects are predictable outcomes of empire economics.

Climate Change Predictions

The Greenhouse Effect is all the rage while we ignore the evaporation effect.  Modifying Greenhouse predictions with the evaporation effect 54-year cycle and we greatly increase temperature change prediction accuracy.  Current climate change estimates are being underestimated because we are in the cooling half of the cycle from 1998 to 2025.  Climate change will dramatically accelerate after 2025, catching the experts by surprise.

Hurricane Predictions

Every other generation floods and droughts are regionally predictable, as well as blizzards.  Major volcanoes tend to come from the tropical area where the Indian and Pacific Oceans meet.  But the greatest opportunities for cyclic prediction of natural events are in the hurricane area.  New Orleans, Miami, North Carolina, and New York each have their own unique regional cyclic pattern.  These repeat mostly on a 54-year cycle basis plus or minus a couple years.  However, North Carolina and Miami have 27-year repetitions give or take a year or two.  Regularization of this approach could give greater reliability for protection of these communities.

The Seventeen Findings of Peace Economic Theories:  https://www.academia.edu/37217512/Findings_and_Special_Claims_November_2017_2_pages

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, May 22), “Disruption of 8 Industries” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Disruption-of-8-Industries,2019181131.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 57 in 8 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.        Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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