Architecture Peace Economy
Putting Dominoes in Order
The first domino of military spending shows a perfect inverse relationship with manufacturing productivity growth for the seven largest industrialized capitalist country economies during the Cold War. The second domino uses capital investment versus military spending from 1960-80, and perfects for the four largest NATO economies plus Sweden. One finding says military spending is lost manufacturing and the other says it is lost capital investment. That is virtually the same message when you understand that most capital investment goes into manufacturing. That the manufacturing is stronger and broader suggest a variability in financial investment. The third domino is federal government deficit with the large-scale experiment of World War Two 1941-48 proving the basic point that deficits lift the economy as much as military spending depresses the economy.
Connections to First Domino
The first domino of military spending and the economy is so stunning that the next thing to do is to put the idea to the test as many ways and in as many major academic fields as possible. The first major test was to build an accurate long-term model in the United States economy. This was easily the toughest first big test and took about six months of work with hundred-year long data sets of economic statistics including dozens of various multi-year averaging’s to find the turning points in history. The fourth domino is from the obvious economic boom of the fifties and sixties, the Kondratiev Wave of long-term booms and busts. Detailed modeling using a 54 year cycle showed annual variability on domino one (manufacturing productivity growth rate) net of domino three (deficit). Then the next stunner was how the variability disappeared every nine or so years into perfection again. This was domino five, the Juglar investment cycle of 8-10 years. The basic model was also roughly confirmed in partial modeling on the German and world economies.
Foreign Policy Connections
Foreign policy is built around the idea that you need a strong economy and military to be a dominant power in the world. But most social science modeling mistakenly assumes a strong military can lead to a strong economy. The first domino shows this is a false assumption. Then I devoted a chapter in my first book Peace Economics (1986) to studying the implications of the economy versus military power trade-off, producing two curves, one arithmetic and one geometric to help decide the proper trade-offs for short term and long-term wars. The key point is the new Reuschlein model and information points to a “necessary substantial reduction in armies” required of all countries that wish to defend their country well in the coming decades before and during the next war. This domino includes an assessment of when major wars occur, which brings us back to the fourth domino of the Kondratiev Wave 54-year cycle between major wars which come about 18 years after second biggest wars of a cycle. This is domino six the change in defense strategy all nations must undergo with the new reality.
Domestic Connections and the Empire Model
Domino seven is the relationship between the military and politics. The more military per capita of a home state, the more powerful is the politician representing that state. In all eleven elections of the Cold War, Presidents came from home states in the high military spending half of America. This bias looks about 80% true for leading political positions like congressional leadership, cabinet members, and Supreme Court appointees. Domino eight is the relationship between the military budget and the local state and regional economies. Domestically military spending merely transfers resources between the manufacturing heavy states and the military spending heavy states. Overall military buildups depress manufacturing jobs and investments to transfer those productive resources into national defense services. Domino nine is the relationship between military spending and murder and crime rates. As the economy goes down crime goes up and real estate markets get corrupted leading to financial crises. Domino ten is the connection between the military and income inequality, low social mobility, low mental health, high teen birthrates, high obesity, and the many other social indicators (such as escapism, gambling and drugs) of a declining empire. Declining empires are frustrating places for the citizens. Challenger nations rise on low military spending and after they become empires, decline on high military spending.
Environmental Connections and Global Warming Cycle
Domino eleven come from a three-year effort (1988-1991) to connect the 54-year cycle to its natural roots. After endlessly poring over 16 century long data sets of the major sections of the planet Earth, I gradually saw how it all fit together in a great pattern. 27 years of warming weakens the economies of the world followed by 27 years of cooling boosting the economies of the world. Major volcanoes, blizzards, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and wars and social upheavals like riots and social movements all follow the great cycle in its natural, economic, and political dimensions. Evaporation slows the warming process such that oceans are the coolest and lands warm three times faster than oceans before all the feedback loops kick in creating the cycle. Droughts peak in the last decade of the warming phase followed by a decade of heavy floods in the first decade of the cooling phase. 2025 is the end of the current cooling (slower warming) phase and global warming will redouble its efforts after that year. Look out! Hurricane Sandy (2012) led to a stunning confirmation of the accuracy of this cycle.
Presentation at the American Association of Geographers 4-7-19:
Please cite this work as follows:
Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, April 30), “Architecture Peace Economy” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Architecture-Peace-Economy,2019180316.aspx
Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,
Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year 49 in 7 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.