Findings and Special Claims
Since the Norwegian Nobel Committee seems to be taking me very seriously lately, it’s time for a catalog of my findings and special claims.
- Manufacturing Productivity growth rate reduces in proportion to military economy. Ruth Sivard provided the bar chart of nineteen years summary of G7 countries plus Sweden and Denmark in 1981. Nils Petter Gledisch correlated the data at R=-0.81. Reuschlein combined Europe and North America improving the continental correlation to R=-0.997. Claim: this proves the non-productive nature of military spending. Reuschlein 1986.
- Capital Investment reduces by the amount of military spending. Ruth Sivard in 1983 published this bar chart of the G7 countries plus Sweden over a twenty one year period. Reuschlein claims that for five of these countries R=-0.993. The outliers of Italy and Canada are secondary countries in the two main continents, 3.5% GDP lower than the main top four NATO countries, and Japan is 4.5% GDP higher due to a strong cultural bias towards savings. Reuschlein 1986.
- American economic productivity model from 1920 to 1983 shows a correlation of R=0.999. All parameters were independently arrived at from annual historical data analysis. Claim: this model proves the existence of the 1926 Nicolai Kondratieff 54 year cycle and the Clement Juglar 1860 nine year investment cycle. This model also has trade loss Great Depression factor and oil shock seventies Oil Crisis factor. These special factors also repeat confirm their accuracy on a three year basis. Reuschlein 1986.
- Defense Strategy model 1985 and 1986. Here is where my war-gaming background comes in handy. Claim: this is the key concept why it is imperative for nations to reduce military spending or suffer long term national security disaster in a next major war decades from now.
- Decade by decade GDP of these same countries from 1900 to 1980 shows countries rising on low military and falling on high military generally. Best examples, USA, Japan, Russia, Germany. Claim: rise and fall of nations depends on level of military spending. This supports 1972 Toynbee claim that 23 of 25 empires fell because of their high military spending. Reuschlein 1986.
- Murder and Crime rates of five of same countries are proportional to the military economy. The five are from high to low America, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Japan, R=0.996. This works best for murder rates, and crime index of murder, crime, criminals. Sweden does not fit for crime index because of definitional issues such as misdemeanors added to felonies. These five are all 160 year old societies. The 400 year old societies of England, France, Massachusetts, and Virginia also correlate, R=0.93, but at a 60% lower rate. The additional 240 years divided by 400 years is 60%. This indicates a reduced crime rate for being a stable society, but still affected by the military economy size. Claim: social decay of declining empires is a direct result of the military spending levels, both because of the economic stagnation and the level of militarism. Reuschlein 1989.
- Regional Growth proportional to military spending changes R=0.97. Analysis of Bi-Coastal Economy report of 1986 shows this when adding military spending changes and grouping states together around regional hub cities or other logical economic clusters of 17 state cluster mini-regions. Cluster idea partial credit goes to Los Angeles Book Award “Cities and the Wealth of Nations” and Reuschlein’s accounting background. Reuschlein 1987.
- Kondratieff wave not only in economics, but also in droughts, temperature, and in wars. Reuschlein 1991. Claim: my list of 56 major events, natural, economics, and wars, shows 20 exact year fits and an average departure of 1.5 years from the 54 year cycle. Drought data prepared by NOAA in 1988, presented on C-SPAN, started the three year project.
- Reuschlein finds 54 year cycle in a variety of volcanic, drought, flood, temperature, precipitation, hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes, and El Nino data. “Trends 90” a key statistical help with other sources. Working with 14 temperature and 2 precipitation data sets I gradually discovered the pattern. The difference in hemispheres North and South confirmed the pattern. My forecasting prowess once earned top honors in a business course on production 1976.
- Found nine year cycle in precipitation records 1991. With nine year and 54 year cycles in both temperature and economics, what is the connection? Failed trying to find it in agriculture. Then the business production class bails me out as I remember Frederick Taylor’s work finding an ideal temperature to build railroads of 64 degrees Fahrenheit. A 1986 Climate Change video aired on Maryland PBS by Australian Journalist James Walker leads to Ideal Temperature Zone concept. Claim: humans respond to excessive heat with lethargy, creating the link between economic cycles and weather cycles.
- Goldstein 1987 finds fifty year cycle in major wars in Europe last five hundred years. Reuschlein extends this to three hundred years of Roman Empire, 200 years of America, for a total of 1000 years with 6 of 17 major war years projected onto the future year 2025. Pattern is usually #1 versus #2 power after 27 year high growth period when wealth is maximized and new economic differences are maximized. Then about three years into the new low growth period, at the end of a major cold year two or three year trend, leaders seek a distraction into war and the major war breaks out. Claim: both economics and temperature lead to major wars.
- Finding: unemployment rate variance across the states fluctuates greatly with the military spending. For the 1984-1992 period, US military spending % GDP drops 23% overall while the Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell’s home state Maine increases 100%. 12 state clusters representing the Eastern 78% of the country correlate directly with the military changes, R=0.97. The largest rise in unemployment occurs in Massachusetts as Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill retires in 1986. Opposite pattern of #7 but same correlation, as the sixteen states that benefited most under Reagan military buildup have fourteen of the highest unemployment rate increases. The two exceptions? South Carolina and Georgia with the chair and ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee representing those two states. Reuschlein 1992.
- Richard Schneider asks me to teach my course on “University of the Air” Radio for Peace International 1997. Finding: recognizing the manufacturing nature of military spending taken as a whole. 1991 University of Colorado professor invites me to write up the manufacturing productivity connection explanation. Finding: must look at arms manufacturers as suppliers to the military “factory”. Then military “factory” is light manufacturing with heavy equipment manufactured by arms industry. Then absence of a positive product that helps meet human needs like food, clothing, shelter, transportation, fuel, and other hard goods explains how military spending inputs can nourish local communities while giving back only a political service to the larger community or nation. Necessity is not the issue, national defense is not the issue; lack of a consumer product is the economic flaw in military spending. Input Output analysis is the key to this understanding.
- Spirit Level 2010 by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Puckett shows that income inequality leads to disastrous social and health outcomes. Finding: Military Spending has much stronger correlations on the six strongest components of their index. Claim: Decline of empire is more responsible for poor social conditions than income inequality.
- Doctoral Dissertation on Peace Economics in Peace Studies 2009 finds that of eight key concepts in Peace Economics as I define it, Peace Studies programs are very weak on two. Those are the regional state by state economics of military spending and the long cycle of history of booms and busts and wars. The 54 year cycle is hardly mentioned. Claim: not understanding the local impact of military spending and politics beyond the usual generalities avoids findings like all presidents elected during the 11 elections of the Cold War came from an above average military spending state. Claim: not understanding the long cycle leads to poor prediction of wars, which leads to military over preparation for constant wars and war threats.
- Finding: Klyashtorin’s spectrum analysis of Greenland ice core data shows a very strong 55 year cycle in temperature data over 1400 years. A friend on a global warming list-serve shared that research from decades ago in circa 2005. Finding after Hurricane Sandy in 2012: Running a 55 year moving average over the 1850 to 2010 annual global temperature data smooths the graph into three straight lines, with the last two correlating at .998 and .997 respectively. Claim: this proves the existence of the Kondratieff wave and the natural origins of that cycle show that the economic cycle is not human made but comes from a cycle between land and ocean caused by differential evaporation rates over land and ocean. Like the four seasons over 12 months this super season occurs over 54 years and occurs despite background changes to the underlying trends caused by the Greenhouse Effect.
- Claim: Recognition of this body of work will lead to better severe weather and major hurricane repeat events predictions as historical records are analyzed and regionalized better.
Claim: Fortunes will be made in the stock market as the regional impact of major military budget changes is seen to change the fortunes of regionally concentrated stocks and as military states and manufacturing states are seen to move in opposite directions. Claim: downward pressure will be strong on all military budgets everywhere as nations begin to understand the self-defeating role high military spending has on a nation’s real defense strength, its economy, over the course of a few decades: a better balance will be struck between short term defense and long term defense. Claim: economic benefits as well as social benefits will accrue to those who find a lower balance of military spending as the way to go. The million US homicide deaths that occurred in the thirty years after John Lennon’s death could have been cut in half if the military budget had been cut in half, saving 500,000 lives. Claim: science will be enhanced greatly as economics and climate change each improve in accuracy by an order of magnitude, with many benefits to the billions of people on this planet. Claim: all of these benefits and more will only occur if someone like the Norwegian Nobel Committee helps me get over the publicity and recognition hurdles, so that thousands of scientist can help take this work to the next level.
Seven Page Summary of Main Ideas:
Please cite this work as follows:
Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, November 16), “Why Is the USA an Empire?” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Findings-and-Special-Claims,2017131181.aspx
Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute