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Hurricane Planet Dynamics

Back to back major hurricanes like Harvey and Irma is a sure sign of warmer oceans thanks to the dramatic escalation of global warming since 1973.  Why do I say since 1973?  That’s the last year of the 1910-1973 cycle as shown by three perfectly straight line of 55 year moving average global warming temperatures since 1850.  That straight line with a 1 Fahrenheit/century slope was correlated at .998, and then the next cycle of 1974 to 2025 first ten years was correlated .997 with a 2 Fahrenheit/century slope.  Before 1910 was no slope and after 2025 is anybody’s guess, perhaps 3 Fahrenheit/century slope.  The central year of the most modern 55 year moving average was, at that time, 1983 for the 55 years from 1956 to 2010.  What does “at that time” mean?  It means the time of my July 20, 2013 speech to the World Future Society meeting in Chicago that year.  What happened was that everyone in the front row (about 6 or 8 people out of 50 in attendance) rose in unison to take a cell-phone snapshot of my key temperature slide.  What had triggered my investigation was Hurricane Sandy hitting New York 52 years after the last flooding of the battery in Manhattan, New York in 1960.  I decided to test the 55 year cycle relative peak La Place transform result of Klyashtorin (2001 Rome) work over 1420 years of Greenland ice core measurements and it worked out brilliantly.

How Does the Planetary System Work?

Like clockwork is the first answer, with a certain amount of noise, just like the seasons and the sunrises, with precision underlying all three phenomena.  Red sky in morning, sailors take warning, red sky at night, sailors delight.  Where does it come from?  Evaporation differences over land and sea.  What I mean by that is that most solar energy landing on the surface of the Earth is used to vaporize water.  But there is much water in the ocean and much less water over land.  So there is more solar energy left over to warm things up over land than over water.  So land seems to warm up about three times as fast as ocean overall on planet Earth.  So other than the frozen ice covered land over Antarctica, there is about three times as much land in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere.  This then tends to explain why the seasonal extreme temperature months of January and July are three times as far apart in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere.  So it takes a long time to even this energy balance out on planet Earth.  It takes 27 years of heating for the land to get so overheated with major droughts that the ocean starts with major floods to begin taking the next 27 years bringing things back into balance.  So the 1917 temperature bottom takes 27 years to reach the temperature top in 1944.  The next bottom in 1971 is unclear as 1964 and 1976 look more like bottoms, although the year 1971 tries to form a bottom.  Then the next top in 1998 is clearly 54 years after the 1944 top.

More Patterns

Great stress is put on the Earth each time the shift occurs from relative warming trend to relative cooling trend.  The land and ocean are in titanic struggle.  So some events of the 54 year cycle are every 27 year events.  Then there is another paradox of the long cycle; that every other 54 year long cycle comes and goes over a land dominated Northern Hemisphere dominated cycle or an ocean dominated Southern Hemisphere cycle.  This shows up in the temperature record clearly by whether the Northern or Southern Hemisphere is warmer in a given year.  So while the land heats and cools over a 54 year cycle, the ocean seems to follow a much longer 108 year cycle.  With the Earth about two thirds ocean (71% actually) and one third land (29% actually) this seems to make some rough sense out of the pattern.  So the strong mid century warming of the 20th century comes in the midst of the 48 years 1921 to 1968 when the Northern Hemisphere is hotter 45 of those years.  The Southern Hemisphere is hotter 45 of the 60 years from 1861 to 1920.  Both temperature dominant patterns show brief reversals in the middle of the dominant patterns, as these long term patterns show minor ebbs and flows along the way.  More graphs and details are shown in my 1991 paper “Natural Global Warming” posted to my academia.edu website.

Major Miami Hurricanes Last Hundred Years

Major Miami hurricanes were 1935, 1965, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and now Irma in 2017.  These illustrate the every 27 year change nature of the 54 year cycle.  If the 1965 and 1992 events are a perfect 27 years apart, the 1935 event is three years early and the 2017 event is two years early.  Or looking at the average, 30+27+25 divided by three is 27.3 years.  Another view would be the two sets of 54 year cycles 1935 to 1992, 57 years, and 1965 to 2017, 52 years.  Then that average would be 54.5 years.  One could argue the Miami connection, but no one could argue the South Florida connections of these four events.  One could note that the first two were in the Northern Hemisphere phase, a land oriented phase, hence farther apart.  Then the second two were in the oceanic Southern Hemisphere phase and closer together.  This shows how oceanic phase events differ from land phase events.  Likewise the droughts and floods.  The US had two Major interior droughts in the land phase (1934, 1936) and one in the ocean phase (1988).  But also the oceanic phase had major regional droughts in coastal states, 1985 to 1991 seven year droughts in Florida, Georgia, and California.  As for the major Mississippi floods, one in the land phase in 1938 (discounting the 1927 flood as pre-human intervention) and two in the oceanic phase 1993 and 1995.  The major droughts were 52 and 54 years apart and the major floods were 55 and 57 years apart.  Perhaps the cycle length shrunk for the droughts because the intervening years were 63% (34/54) land phase years and the cycle extended somewhat for the floods because the intervening years were 47% (27/57) ocean phase years.

Summary

Yes, the world temperature cycle exists; yes it works best globally, nearly as well for the US, but very well regionally as well.  My temperature graph slide and 56 event charts were posted on my academia.edu website in 2013 and are included at the end of this general paper about the weather cycle:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5p. from_1997_9p. 2014

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, September 10). “Hurricane Planet Dynamics”.  Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Hurricane-Planet-Dynamics,2017119532.aspx

Addenda

Jacksonville flood was the worst since 1846, that’s 171 year ago, three 54 year cycles would be 162 years, so that is a 9 year miss.  The last time two category 4 hurricanes hit the US in the same year was 1851, that’s 166 years ago, three 54 year cycles would be 162 years, so that is a 4 year miss.

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute

Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds, tied for 31st Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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