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Texas Hurricane “Harvey”

Harvey on August 25th is the first category four hurricane to hit Texas in the 56 years since Carla on September 11th in 1961.  When the oceanic 27 year half cycle phase of the 54 year Kondratiev cycle comes along, you have to expect repetitive big hurricanes will come along with it.  In American economic and temperature cycle terms the period is 1994 to 2021.  Like its predecessor period, 1940 to 1967, it is a high economic growth cooling temperature period.  In World temperature cycle terms it is 1998 to 2025.  The world predecessor period is 1944 to 1971, with each period starting with a peak temperature above the long term trend line and ending with a trough temperature below the long term trending line.  Ironically, thanks to the new Greenhouse Effect trend line, this period will look like the stable period one quarter century from now in terms of land and the economy, but anything but stable in terms of hurricanes.

Great Hurricane Modern History

The first press releases of this four year press release campaign were about the great Typhoon Haiyan hitting the Philippines in 2013.  This was exactly 54 years after “The 1959 Pacific typhoon season that was regarded as one of the most devastating years for Pacific typhoons on record, with China, Japan and the Philippines sustaining catastrophic losses, (from Wikipedia).”  “One top ten list of Philippines Typhoons has nine of them 1973 or more recent, all during the age of the current strong increase in global warming of the seventies, eighties, and nineties.  Only one other made the top ten, the 1958 typhoon Rita, the only one from the relatively cool fifties and sixties or the twenty year period 1952-1972.  That one is 55 years ago from today’s devastating Typhoon Haiyan suggesting it fits the 55 year cycle discovered by Klyashtorin.”  “Hurricane Sandy of 2012 was the next time the battery in New York flooded after the 1960 event 52 years before.”  “Not included in the above is Hurricane Hugo that dumped 12 inches of rain on North Carolina in September 1989, just 55 years after the last 12 inch North Carolina month of September in 1934.”  These last four quotes are from my November 12, 2013 press release immediately after Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines.  From Wikipedia:  “On making landfall, Haiyan devastated portions of Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines. It is the deadliest Philippine typhoon on record, killing at least 6,300 people in that country alone. In terms of JTWC-estimated 1-minute sustained winds, Haiyan is the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on record.”

Great American Hurricanes

In  2004 PBS broadcast a special suggesting four great tragedies waiting to happen in the United States.  One was a San Francisco earthquake, one was an EF5 tornado hitting Dallas, one was a hurricane hitting New Orleans and the last was a hurricane hitting New York. Those four events have now happened, except that the scale is lower for the San Francisco and Dallas cases.  The EF4 tornado over Dallas suburb Garland on December 26, 2015 was tracking for the downtown Dallas when it lifted.  The F5 over Fort Worth in 1957 is the big one for modern times, suggesting a 58 year cycle.  The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 was easily the most devastating in US history, with the follow-up 83 year later in San Jose much weaker, and the follow-up 108 years later in the Napa Valley weaker still.  108 years is a perfect fit being two 54 year cycles later, 83 is two years off from the three half cycle trend changes perfect of 81 years.

New Orleans had hurricanes in 1893 (2000 deaths) and 1947, 54 year apart, then Katrina (1500 deaths) came four years late in 2005, 58 years later.  Hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012 famously just before the presidential election and two years early after the Battery last flooded 52 years before in 1960.

Texas Hurricanes Harvey and Carla

            Harvey, 56 years after Carla in 1961 is only two years late from a perfect cycle, these are the most recent two category four hurricanes to land on Texas.  Carla was once a CAT 5 but diminished just before landing and quickly dropped to tropical storm level the next day.  Harvey threatens to persist for a week and dump 52 inches of rain over time on Houston, potentially much more devastating, as water is usually more devastating in a hurricane than wind.  This could be worse than Katrina or Sandy in overall impact.  This rainfall greatly exceeded the Hugo levels in 1989 in North Carolina, where 12 inches of rain matches the monthly rainfall total of September 1934 in North Carolina, the same month 55 years before.  That was the first major hurricane after the discovery that the American droughts of 1934 and 1936 were repeating in 1988, starting my whole research effort into the causes of the 54 year cycle.

Summary

Yes, the world temperature cycle exists, yes it works best globally, nearly as well for the US, but very well regionally as well.  My 56 event chart was posted on my academia.edu website in 2013 and included at the end of this general paper about the weather cycle:  https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5p. from_1997_9p. 2014

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2017, August 27). “Texas Hurricane ‘Harvey’.” Madison, WI: Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Texas-Hurricane-Harvey,2017119240.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016, and one of 76 Given Odds (tied for 31st) for the Nobel Peace Prize 2017
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com, Info: www.realeconomy.com

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