Odds on Nobel Peace Prize
2017 Nobel Peace Prize Betting Odds by Jim Murphy
I took the trouble to analyze the analysis by Jim Murphy of the odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year. The cash award for last year was $923,179.20 but also includes a gold medal auctioned off by previous winners for from $765,002 to $4.7 million in recent auctions. According to Jim Murphy’s figures, on a spread sheet and totaled to 100%, of the 76 people included in his list plus the chance of someone not on the list or no one at all being rewarded this year, (the 77th) entry on the list needed to include all possibilities. With those adjustments, the chance of Professor Robert Reuschlein winning is 1 out of 157 according to Jim Murphy. The top ten favorites have a 50% chance of being picked. The twenty two people in the middle of the pack tied with Robert Reuschlein collectively have a 13% chance of being picked as Murphy sees it. The monetary value of the cash prize times the chance of getting it would be about $6000 for those in the middle of the pack like Reuschlein. One could go to someone like Lloyd’s of London and cash in by selling one’s right to the Prize this year perhaps. Reuschlein would not do so because he believes his chances are much higher than Murphy thinks, having made the round of 32 last year. The first two of these press releases are my contemporary notices proving that finding (using Jim Murphy’s figure of 32) of close consideration last year:
This last press release is my final pitch to the Norwegians to choose me: https://bobreuschlein.wordpress.com/2016/10/05/letter-to-nobel-committee/
The Favorites (Top 10, Top 35)
The top ten are fairly well known names, Medea Benjamin of Code Pink, The White Helmets of Syria, Edward Snowden who exposed government mass surveillance, David Swanson of World Can’t Wait, Johan Galtung of the Friends Service Committee book on nukes, Richard Falk noted author, Jan Oberg journalist, Ethan Gutmann author, Chelsea Manning soldier who exposed civilian atrocities in US wars, and Daniel Ellsberg of the Pentagon Papers. Then there are twenty five more before the middle of the pack tie, including Chicago favorite Kathy Kelly, Benjamin Ferencz co-author of the book “Planethood” which has five references in the index to Reuschlein’s work from the book “Peace Economics”, and the choice of none of the above or no winner, considered a 1% possibility.
The Middle of the Pack Tie (22 people)
Professor Robert Reuschlein has been rated an equal choice with Pope Francis, the leader of the free world, Angela Merkel of Germany who has helped Syrian refugees, and Julian Assange of Wikileaks, who was recently visited by Robert Reuschlein in London at the Ecuadorian embassy there. Then there is perennial author Dr. Gene Sharp who has documented the many peaceful change successes over the twentieth century and finally the September 11th Families for a Peaceful Tomorrow.
The Long Shots (Bottom 20)
It is notable that Madison Wisconsin local favorite Professor Robert Reuschlein is considered by Jim Murphy as more likely to win than the following: John Kerry, despite his negotiation of the Iran Accord, Wikileaks, rock star Rihanna, Native American hero Leonard Peltier, and of course the very unlikely Donald Trump, and the slightly less unlikely Vladimir Putin, leaders of the no longer quite so super powers.
Little known Professor Robert Reuschlein has developed a game changing theory of military spending as a lost economic opportunity, high levels of which actually weakens powers over the decades. He has also revolutionized the science of long term temperature change, showing amazing precision where others find only partially reliable world models. Together these developments, once recognized, could vastly improve the sciences of economics, global warming, and war forecasting, where only sloppiness currently exists. He compares in the Jim Murphy analysis well with many other people of note. Reuschlein’s recent conference summaries of key aspects of his work:
Reuschlein is open to local news coverage and academic citations of his work wherever possible.
Here is the full article by Jim Murphy, a sports betting analyst for the last 25 years:
Nobel Prize Interest Peaks in 2018, Third Year
No one but the Norwegian Nobel Committee has tried to look at all my 183 press releases on ExpertClick.com. That signature convinced me they were very serious about my nomination from the starting two months of February and March 2016. Then nothing happened for a while as the Columbian President won the Peace Prize in 2016. But in 2017 some very strange things started happening. Twelve days before and 10 days before someone looked at 24 of the most recent press releases. I thought this meant the chair and vice chair of the five member committee were studying me. Then the same thing the night before the announcement, perhaps a search for a third vote. Then the award went to an anti-nuclear group ICAN with no coverage except the live broadcast on the BBC. The world said “ho hum”. Since then twice in November, three times in January, four times in February and on March 8th the signature pattern repeated, looking at the last 26 or 24 in a row. Of these ten different visits since the last announcement, three may have come from Germany or France, one from Australia, and one from Switzerland, since the wordpress.com website seems to precede the access to the ExpertClick.com press releases. Thorbjorn Jagland, Secretary General of the Council of Europe since 2009, works in Strasbourg, France and may live across the river in Germany. He has the economics background to follow me most closely. Australia could be a false lead, and Switzerland could be Thorbjorn Jagland on assignment in say Geneva, since he is the Chancellor of the Council of Europe. It seems like I may be a favorite this year, look out October 5, 2018.