Evaporation Changes the World
Evaporation reduces warming where-ever there is water, and these temperature differentials change seasons, economics, and through a long chain of factors, even the major war cycle.
We live on the water planet. The surface of our planet is 71% ocean covered. Our bodies are 69% water. Plants are 91% water. And the main use of solar radiation striking the surface of our Earth is 85% to evaporate water. That depends on where the sunlight comes down. The evaporation rate is 90% over ocean and 73% over land. But the land of the continents is full of water, lakes, streams, rivers, and marshes. So over solid land it is about 56% and much lower over desert where there is virtually no water to evaporate. So oceans heat up initially only 10% while land heats up 27%, land has three times the initial heating for ocean. But water retains its heat better than land, so we have weather to bring things back into balance. Night helps too as winds shift the energy and temperature around. So land is the main driver of the heating system of this planet and the biggest land mass, the Eurasian North African one, dominates the planetary changes. North America is a relative backwater by comparison as the ocean currents run North alongside the supercontinent warming while the return cycle brings cooling to the American shores. And the small amounts of land in the Southern Hemisphere are definitely overwhelmed by the ocean. South Africa, South America, Australia and Antarctica are each much smaller than even North America, which at least shares a Northern Hemisphere and wind belts with the super continent. So it is no wonder and no surprise then that the Northern Hemisphere has a seasonal range three times that of the Southern Hemisphere. Further, 20% of the earth’s surface is land North of the equator, and 9% is land South of the equator, and excluding the frozen over poles, that reduces to 6% is land South of the equator. These facts also suggest a 3 to 1 seasonality difference between the two hemispheres. And all this because solar radiation loves to evaporate water.
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OSHA lists about three dozen occupations that are heat sensitive. It’s not just the obvious ones of farming and construction, think of all the maintenance, repair, utilities, and delivery people who have to contend with the outdoors. And we all commute and complain about weather and heating and cooling systems all the time. So the first industrial engineer, Frederick Taylor, found that railroad production productivity dropped the higher it was above the ideal temperature of 64 degrees Fahrenheit. And modern measures in the dry cleaning industry where hot presses are kept running all day long show that above a room temperature of 72 degrees Fahrenheit productivity drops 4% at 74 degrees, 18% at 85 degrees and 37% at 95 degrees Fahrenheit. Heat slows us down. Cooling speeds us up. Maybe I’m a school-ish bookworm, but I’ve always felt personally exhilarated by the change from August to September, as too hot becomes just right in my opinion. So it is not then too surprising to find that, among the populated areas of the planet, the hotter ones have the poorer economies and the cooler ones have the stronger economies. The temperate zone economies have long dominated the tropical economies. And the Northern and cooler parts of Europe and the United States have long had stronger economies than the Southern parts of each continent. Scandinavia Germany and Switzerland have the highest per capita incomes in Europe, while the Northeast is the richest region in the United States. The two coldest of the 48 United States, North Dakota and Minnesota, had the most millionaires per capita in the eighties. Then in 15 of 18 five year periods, when the summer was cooler the economy was stronger and when the summer was hotter the economy was weaker. And the biggest shift was the late twenties to the early thirties, with the sharpest temperature increase and the biggest economic growth rate drop, emphasizing the point with the Great Depression and the dust bowl. With out a doubt, temperature change has a big role to play in the economy.
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As Klyashtorin shows in his 1400 year study of Greenland ice cores, the 55 year cycle is among the three strongest and roughly equal results of a frequency testing procedure. My own much more comprehensive set of weather, wealth, and war cycle data over the last century (or two) show that the cycle is clearly 54 years in modern times. It may be longer in earlier times, because the Roman Empire war cycle is about 18 years off of the modern 54 year cycle, suggesting that the cycle in the 2000 year interim may have been closer to 55 years.
The solar start of the cycle is posited by E. B. Browning of UW Madison and I tend to agree.
The linkages from planetary weather cycle to economic cycle to war cycle are covered in my power point presentation below and this video: http://vimeo.com/54044778
Power point, 18 slides:
Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein,
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for more info http://www.realeconomy.com (Peace Economics 1986 available for $10 ebook)