15 Year Pause: Earth Warming
The headlines of my local paper September 20, 2013 stated “New Report Shows That Global Warming is Slowing Down” from Karl Ritter of the Associated Press. His article states that “The heating of Earth’s surface appears to have slowed in the past fifteen years even though greenhouse gas emissions are rising.” The IPCC report has no real answer, but tries to fake it’s way through with some talk about the oceans absorbing the heating. It is true that there’s no new global high temperature year since the last record set in 1998. My 1991 paper “Natural Global Warming” first reports my discovery of the Earth cycle. The 200 expert areas included in the report neglect to include my theory of the 54 year global warming cycle. Supporting the 54 year cycle is Klyashtorin’s work showing a very high La Place transform result for the 55 year cycle over a 1420 year period based on Greenland ice core data.
The 54 year cycle is removed from the global warming data by using a 55 year moving average. When you remove the cycle the straight line global warming nature of the planet emerges. The line is sideways with no warming up until the middle year of the moving average reaches the year 1910. Then from 1911 through 1973 the moving average becomes a new straight line with a slope of 0.95 degrees Fahrenheit per century. After 1974 the slope doubles into a straight line with a new slope of 2 degrees Fahrenheit per century. The 1911 to 1973 line correlates at the almost perfect level of 0.998, perfect to two decimal places. The second line from 1974 to1983 again correlates strongly at 0.997, also a perfect fit to two decimal places. The extension through present time appears to continue fitting. With the evidence of the 1910-1911 change and the 1973-1974 change I expect the next change to take one cycle later to show up. 2025 is 27 years after the last peak global warming temperature of 1998 and would be the cold year at end of this temperature pause half cycle. That would end it about the year 2025 and begin the next one 2026.
My own analysis of 56 events of a 54 year cycle nature including temperature turning points, major weather events, major economic turning points and events, and major wars. I have rationally connected these three realms, the natural, the economic, and the political (wars). Of these 56 events, 25 are exact year fits, with an average of 1.32 years off for all 56 events.
I call it the Earth Cycle because there is a Gaia like quality to the cycle, as if the Earth were alive. The land rushes into the hot phase and the ocean tempers the land in the cooling phase. Because the 55 year moving average consists of three straight lines, the power of the Earth will not be tampered with as the cycle completes the oceanic cooling phase. By that I mean that the moving average remains linear throughout the complete cycle, and only adjusts upward at the beginning of a new land heating phase.
Comparing the Northern and Southern Hemisphere heating shows that there are two 54 year global warming cycles, one more oceanic (water like: more floods and coastal impacts) lead by the Southern Hemisphere and another land like (more droughts and continent interior impacts) lead by the Northern Hemisphere. Hence the Southern Hemisphere is hotter than the Northern Hemisphere from 1861 to 1920 for 45 of the 60 years. Then the Northern Hemisphere is hotter than the Southern Hemisphere from 1921 to 1968 for 45 of the 48 years. So a complete double cycle is 108 years.
The math of the global moving average is clear evidence of a global warming regime that changes only when a new cycle begins, and we are still 12 years away from that point. No new global warming spurt like 1971 to 1998 will occur before the end of 27 year half cycle begun after 1998. Because the nature of the cycle comes from the different solar evaporation rates of ocean versus land, all the nuances of the cycle reflect this drought first flood second cycle. All of this is about the nature of the sun, the land, and water.
Here is an extended version of this press release:
Here is the chart that caused Futurists in Chicago to drop their jaws and pull out there cell phone cameras:
Here is my fourth power point presentation last year, used for the World Future Society on July 20, 2013:
Here is a reader friendly narrative of the cycle:
Here is a list of 56 prominent examples of the cycle:
Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein
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