Finding the Earth Cycle
When is the cycle going to adjust again?
This was the final question asked at my presentation to the World Future Society last July. It took a few months but I finally have the answer. Last Fall the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change came out. The headlines stated “New Report Shows That Global Warming is Slowing Down” from Karl Ritter of the Associated Press. His article states that “The heating of Earth’s surface appears to have slowed in the past fifteen years even though greenhouse gas emissions are rising.” It is true that the East Anglia data everyone uses shows no new global high temperature year since the last record set in 1998. This is where the 200 expert areas included in the report exclude my theory of the 54 year global warming cycle. This may earn me a Nobel some day and the writer who covers me may earn a Pulitzer.
The math I present is clear cut evidence of a global warming regime that changes only when a new cycle begins, and we are still 12 years away from that point, so no new global warming spurt like the last 1971 to 1998 will occur before the next rise period 2025 to 2052 as the ocean cooling phase of global warming will not relent until completely exhausted by 2025.
Here is the chart that caused Futurists in Chicago to drop their jaws and pull out there cell phone cameras:
Although I used a 54 year cycle in my 1986 economic model and knew there was a weather component to the cycle, like most people I considered the cycle an economic cycle mainly. My war cycle model for the 1986 book was based on severe war casualties delaying the onset of the next war. Only those innocent or ignorant of the true cost of a major war are foolish enough to try it again in about 50 years. What really got me going was an 1895 to 1988 data set for Spring precipitation and Summer heat departures. There really were only three superheated data points in that time, 1934, 1936, and 1988. These three were a similar 2.5 degrees above normal where no other dates exceeded 1.7 degrees. And the length of the cycle was either 54 or 52 years, stunning accuracy. Another amazing characteristic was that the cumulative departure from average for precipitation zeroed out every nine years. The one exception was the twenty year period 1930 to 1950, which zeroed out, but left the thirties full of droughts and the forties full of floods. The precision was astonishing. The next step was to examine various slices of the Earth apple to see what was really going on here. Mainly with Trends 90 put out by the Carbon Dioxide Information Center in Oakridge, Tennessee and other books, I came up with 14 long term temperature data sets and 2 long term precipitation data sets, then endlessly pored over them for patterns. I used mult-year averagings to spot true tops and true bottoms.
What was most impressive to me was the sudden jump in temperature of about four or five degrees in the Northern Latitudes data set from 1920 to 1921. Something was happening then, but I didn’t quite know what. Because this was the strongest jump in all the data sets, this was the smoking gun. The Northern Latitudes responded even more forcefully than the Northern Lands. Hence North Africa was not a factor, probably too tropical to impact the whole Earth. North Latitude meant Eurasia, North America, and the Northern Latitudes Ocean were all moving up. The land in this area was driving the ocean higher next to it, hence driving the whole system. Then the final key to the puzzle came with the data sets for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Here finally was the key to the secret of the 54 year cycle. 1920 was the last year in a 60 year pattern of Southern Hemisphere being hotter than the Northern Hemisphere. 1921 was the first year of the new Northern Hemisphere hotter period of 48 years. There were only fifteen exception years in the Southern 60 year pattern, and only 3 exception years in the Northern 48 year pattern. This is consistent with a wide variety of data showing that the land is the volatile element in the Earth system and the Ocean is the calming element in the Earth system. This all lead to my 1991 paper “Natural Global Warming”. In the nineties I created a long list of 54 year cycle events just by following the news. The big events were obvious, and almost always cyclical. My list of 56 events is actually a short list of just major events.
Then in November 2012 I tried using a 55 year moving average on the commonly recognized global warming data from East Anglia. The results were stunning again (by now an old story for me, the luck would not quit, but it was all real). The moving average was flat until 1910, moves up at a one degree Fahrenheit rate per century from 1911 to 1973, then doubles the rate per century to 2 degrees Fahrenheit from 1974 to 1983. With one being perfect, the correlations on the last two climbing segments are .998 and .997 respectively. And the trend line from 1984 to 2010 looks like there will be no change in the trend when we look back 27 years with all the data needed to plot the central year of a 55 year moving average. With fifty people in the room and jaws dropping and cell phone cameras clicking all over the front row at the key slide, the World Future Society has confirmed my results. The last skeptical question has led me to figure the final part of the puzzle out. When will the next uptick in temperature trend begin? I am now confident that will be the year 2025, 27 years after the 1998 last global warming peak. When I describe the cycle as 27 years of warming and 27 years of cooling (or greatly reduced warming), that’s only half the story. This graph proves the power of Gaia. When the United States warms from 1913 to 1940, the land has driven a new cycle into being with help from increased solar energy. Then the ocean takes over and calms the fever of the land for the balance of the cycle from 1940 to 1967. The evidence resides in the droughts of the thirties and the floods of the forties as the great shift from land dominance to ocean dominance begins. Because this is one continuous phenomenum the warming rate stays constant until the new cycle, when a new solar burst and carbon dioxide increase drive the rate higher. The calming ocean holds the system in place until it is ready to “let go” in a new round of cyclic activity when the rate will no doubt ratchet up another notch.
Here is my fourth power point presentation last year, used for the World Future Society on July 20, 1913:
Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein 608-230-6640