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Ukraine Crimea History Context

Everyone knows the Charge of the Light Brigade from the 1856 Crimean War between Britain and Russia.  In 54 year cycle terms that is three cycles ago.  Three times 54 years is 162 years.  1856 plus 162 is 2018, so the current event fits the repetition cycle but four years early.  Actually this reminds me more of the 1956 Soviet crushing of the Hungarian liberation movement.  That plus 54 is 2010, so this is early or late depending on these two scenarios.  However it’s right on target for the average of these two scenarios. When Khrushchev took Crimea from Russia in 1954, he did it as the first non Russian leader of the Soviet Union, and a Ukrainian to boot.  Why is that theft treated as acceptable today?

The war cycle, when I plotted it out in a thousand year record, would have 93% of the major war and 93% of the secondary war events happening in the half cycle 27 years from 2004 to 2031.  Note that Iraq snuck in there one year early, but the secondary war tends to be three years earlier for fast rising power America than for more settled Europe.  The 1000 year data set is 500 years of Europe, 200 years of America, and 300 years of Rome all plotted on a common current time scale.  And always note that the cycle is common for Europe and America for the major war, no three year gap.  As always in long cycle analysis, the accuracy is strongest for the strongest events, and this Ukraine event does not seem to be a major or secondary war scenario, more of a tertiary war, like the 1956 Hungary or 1956 Suez would be.  Note these events were halfway between secondary Korea 1950and primary Vietnam 1965 for the United States in the last cycle.

1808, 1862, 1916, and 1970 were the last anticipated dates for major wars.

In 1808 Europe came early at 1803 with the start of the Napoleonic Wars.  America came late with the War of 1812.  In 1862 the US came right on schedule one year early with the Civil War at 1861.  In Europe, #1 power Britain came early by six years with Crimea in 1856, and #2 power Prussia came eight years late with the Franco-Prussian War of 1870.  This was mirrored a century later around 1970 with #1 power early five years with Vietnam in 1965 and #2 power nine years late with Afghanistan in 1979.  The big one averted then, probably because of nukes, was the 1969 Sino-Soviet border clashes, and then there was the worldwide social ferment of the year 1968 (China, France, United States).  In 1916 the World War came two years early in Europe and one year late in the United States.  Also, this is the beginning of the 1914-1945 World War as many see it, with famed economist John Maynard Keynes on the British negotiating team in Versailles later writing a book that this Versailles Treaty would lead to another war.  That happened because the #3 power in Europe, France, drove the outcome, and in true Peter Principle fashion blew it like many over-promoted people do.  Usually the hegemonic war is between #1 and #2, not sour grapes from 1870 #3.  So a modern thirty years war resulted, with the second part of the war after a 21 year bitter build up.  Note also the violence level escalation of the world wars.  As Joshua Goldstein notes in his Long Cycles book (1987) the level of deaths in major wars was about 1.5% of the European population until the 5% level of each World War.  The mass conscription of the Napoleonic Era produced wars so terrible Europe skipped a major war at the time of America’s only war at the 1% deaths level, the Civil War.  But then war came back with a vengeance in the World Wars.  War was so bad then that Europe has had an extended peace this time.  Let’s hope we’ve learned our lessons and forego war like Sweden after an extra bitter 30 years war, rather than just postpone and double down like Europe between the Napoleanic Era and the World Wars.

So today we are in the cycle equivalent of 1960, between the Hungary and Czechoslovakia crushings, after Korea (now Iraq) and before Vietnam and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, in the dark period of high war tensions between the Suez 1956 and the Six Days War 1967 of the Middle East tinderbox.  Look out for 2024 (average) or 2025 (mode) major war to come.  Let’s not let our politicians get carried away when it’s time for the big one.

For proof of the cycle if you are a skeptic see this first:

For more cyclic war events see the war and weather war schedules here:

Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein  608-230-6640


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