Worklife Long Cycle: Kondratiev
The man who discovered the 54 year cycle was a Russian Marxist Economist who agreed with Lenin that small businesses should operate freely. Unfortunately for him, Stalin wanted all business controlled by the state. Even more problematic, Nikolai Kondratiev predicted that the Great Depression was not the end of capitalism as Stalin saw it, but a bump on the road to postwar prosperity as the cycle continued. This led to his execution on September 17, 1938 at the age of 46.
Because of his origins in Communist Russia, Kondratiev’s theory has long been largely ignored in the West. Mainstream economists have even called one of his followers, J W Forrester of MIT and the founder of Systems Dynamics, a charlatan. Despite the high mainstream skepticism, this theory has great accuracy and usefulness they do not understand.
On Saturday March 8th 2014 at 10am in Sequoya Library, Madison, Wisconsin, USA, we will celebrate the 122nd birthday of this great Russian genius.
I was told by a friend Lyman G. Hill, XIII that the cycle was 54 years, with an economic up cycle of 24 years and a down cycle of 30 years. These are the exact parameters I used to create my 60 year model of US manufacturing productivity with a .999 correlation coefficient. My friend also told me about the hot and cold periods, but it was up to me to develop the connection between the weather cycle, the economic cycle, and the war cycle. I have diligently worked for years to create the proof and explain how the earth cycle operates. If I ever get a Nobel Prize, it will be for these connections and explanations of the cycle and macroeconomics. In 1978 I had set out to become president some day, but instead discovered this scientific theory which will be my legacy. Five pages on the Kondratiev Wave:
Dr. Peace, Dr. Bob Reuschlein
Math loving engineer accountant politician and businessman